Search results for: risk score

Authors: Abhijitsinh Gohil, Kaushal Wadhvaniya, Kuldipsinh Jadeja

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Road Safety is a multi-sectoral and multi-dimensional issue. An effective model can assess the risk associated with highway safety. A questionnaire survey is very essential to identify the events or activities which are causing unsafe condition for traffic on an urban highway. A questionnaire of standard questions including vehicular, human and infrastructure characteristics can be made. Responses from the age wise group of road users can be taken on field. Each question or an event holds a specific risk weightage, which contributes in creating an inappropriate and unsafe flow of traffic. The probability of occurrence of an event can be calculated from the data collected from the road users. Finally, the risk score can be calculated by considering the risk factor and the probability of occurrence of individual event and addition of all risk score for the individual event will give the total risk score of a particular road. Standards for risk score can be made and total risk score can be compared with the standards. Thus road can be categorized based on risk associated and traffic safety on it. With this model, one can assess the need for traffic safety improvement on a given road, and qualitative data can be analysed.

Keywords: probability of occurrence, questionnaire, risk factor, risk score

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Authors: Shumaila Zeb

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The proposed study aims to investigate insolvency risk of commercial banks of Pakistan. Furthermore, it empirically estimates the effect of already implemented financial regulations on the insolvency risk of banks. To carry out the empirical analysis, a balanced bank-level panel data covering the period 2008-2016 is used. The Z-score is used for calculating the insolvency risk of each bank. The panel regression is used to investigate the relationship between financial regulations and insolvency risk of banks. The empirics reveal that the financial regulations enforced by State Bank of Pakistan have significant impacts on the insolvency risk of banks. The results further indicate that loan ratio and reserve ratio are positively and significantly related to the insolvency risk of banks.

Keywords: insolvency risk, Z-score, financial regulations, banks

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Authors: Umesh Kumar Singh, Chanchala Joshi

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With increasing dependency on IT infrastructure, the main objective of a system administrator is to maintain a stable and secure network, with ensuring that the network is robust enough against malicious network users like attackers and intruders. Security risk management provides a way to manage the growing threats to infrastructures or system. This paper proposes a framework for risk level estimation which uses vulnerability database National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) National Vulnerability Database (NVD) and the Common Vulnerability Scoring System (CVSS). The proposed framework measures the frequency of vulnerability exploitation; converges this measured frequency with standard CVSS score and estimates the security risk level which helps in automated and reasonable security management. In this paper equation for the Temporal score calculation with respect to availability of remediation plan is derived and further, frequency of exploitation is calculated with determined temporal score. The frequency of exploitation along with CVSS score is used to calculate the security risk level of the system. The proposed framework uses the CVSS vectors for risk level estimation and measures the security level of specific network environment, which assists system administrator for assessment of security risks and making decision related to mitigation of security risks.

Keywords: CVSS score, risk level, security measurement, vulnerability category

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Authors: Iqbal Pramukti, Mamat Lukman, Hasniatisari Harun, Kusman Ibrahim

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Introduction: People living with HIV had a higher risk of osteoporotic fracture than the general population. The purpose of this study was to predict the 10-year risk of fracture among people living with HIV (PLWH) using FRAX™ and to identify characteristics related to the fracture risk. Methodology: This study consisted of 75 subjects. The ten-year probability of major osteoporotic fractures (MOF) and hip fractures was assessed using the FRAX™ algorithm. A cross-tabulation was used to identify the participant’s characteristics related to fracture risk. Results: The overall mean 10-year probability of fracture was 2.4% (1.7) for MOF and 0.4% (0.3) for hip fractures. For MOF score, participants with parents’ hip fracture history, smoking behavior and glucocorticoid use showed a higher MOF score than those who were not (3.1 vs. 2.5; 4.6 vs 2.5; and 3.4 vs 2.5, respectively). For HF score, participants with parents’ hip fracture history, smoking behavior and glucocorticoid use also showed a higher HF score than those who were not (0.5 vs. 0.3; 0.8 vs. 0.3; and 0.5 vs. 0.3, respectively). Conclusions: The 10-year risk of fracture was higher among PLWH with several factors, including the parent’s hip. Fracture history, smoking behavior and glucocorticoid used. Further analysis on determining factors using multivariate regression analysis with a larger sample size is required to confirm the factors associated with the high fracture risk.

Keywords: HIV, PLWH, osteoporotic fractures, hip fractures, 10-year risk of fracture, FRAX

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Authors: Swathi Sampath, V. Kalaichelvi

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The assessment of the risk posed by a borrower to a lender is one of the common problems that financial institutions have to deal with. Consumers vying for a mortgage are generally compared to each other by the use of a number called the Credit Score, which is generated by applying a mathematical algorithm to information in the applicant’s credit report. The higher the credit score, the lower the risk posed by the candidate, and the better he is to be taken on by the lender. The objective of the present work is to use fuzzy logic and linguistic rules to create a model that generates Credit Scores.

Keywords: credit scoring, fuzzy logic, mortgage, risk assessment

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Authors: Ulas Cinar, Omer Faruk Ugurlu, Selcuk Cebi

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Occupational safety risk management is the most important element of a safe working environment. Effective risk management can only be possible with accurate analysis and evaluations. Scoring-based risk assessment methods offer considerable ease of application as they convert linguistic expressions into numerical results. It can also be easily adapted to any field. Contrary to all these advantages, important problems in scoring-based methods are frequently discussed. Effective measurability is one of the most critical problems. Existing methods allow experts to choose a score equivalent to each parameter. Therefore, experts prefer the score of the most likely outcome for risk. However, all other possible consequences are neglected. Assessments of the existing methods express the most probable level of risk, not the real risk of the enterprises. In this study, it is aimed to develop a method that will present a more comprehensive evaluation compared to the existing methods by evaluating the probability and severity scores, all sub-parameters, and potential results, and a new scoring-based method is proposed in the literature.

Keywords: occupational health and safety, risk assessment, scoring based risk assessment method, underground mining, weighted risk scores

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Authors: Eva Kirzner

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Based on outcome studies published over the past two decades, in 2018, the ACC/AHA published new guidelines for the management of hypercholesterolemia that incorporate the use of coronary artery calcium (CAC) scanning as a decision tool for ascertaining which patients may benefit from statin therapy. This use is based on the recognition that the absence of calcium on CAC scanning (i.e., a CAC score of zero) usually signifies the absence of significant atherosclerotic deposits in the coronary arteries. Specifically, in patients with a high risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), initiation of statin therapy is generally recommended to decrease ASCVD risk. However, among patients with intermediate ASCVD risk, the need for statin therapy is less certain. However, there is a need for new outcome studies that provide evidence that the management of hypercholesterolemia based on these new ACC/AHA recommendations is safe for patients. Based on a Pub-Med and Google Scholar literature search, four relevant population-based or patient-based cohort studies that studied the relationship between CAC scanning, risk assessment or mortality, and statin therapy that were published between 2017 and 2021 were identified (see references). In each of these studies, patients were assessed for their baseline risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) using the Pooled Cohorts Equation (PCE), an ACC/AHA calculator for determining patient risk based on assessment of patient age, gender, ethnicity, and coronary artery disease risk factors. The combined findings of these four studies provided concordant evidence that a zero CAC score defines patients who remain at low clinical risk despite the non-use of statin therapy. Thus, these new studies confirm the use of CAC scanning as a safe tool for reducing the potential overuse of statin therapy among patients with zero CAC scores. Incorporating these new data suggest the following best practice: (1) ascertain ASCVD risk according to the PCE in all patients; (2) following an initial attempt trial to lower ASCVD risk with optimal diet among patients with elevated ASCVD risk, initiate statin therapy for patients who have a high ASCVD risk score; (3) if the ASCVD score is intermediate, refer patients for CAC scanning; and (4) and if the CAC score is zero among the intermediate risk ASCVD patients, statin therapy can be safely withheld despite the presence of an elevated serum cholesterol level.

Keywords: cholesterol, cardiovascular disease, statin therapy, coronary calcium

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Authors: Carl van Walraven, Meltem Tuna

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Background: Network meta-analysis (NMA) quantifies the relative efficacy of 3 or more interventions from studies containing a subgroup of interventions. This study applied the analytical approach of NMA to quantify the relative accuracy of prediction models with distinct inclusion criteria that are evaluated on a common population (‘concurrent external validation’). Methods: We simulated binary events in 5000 patients using a known risk function. We biased the risk function and modified its precision by pre-specified amounts to create 15 prediction models with varying accuracy and distinct patient applicability. Prediction model accuracy was measured using the Scaled Brier Score (SBS). Overall prediction model accuracy was measured using fixed-effects methods that accounted for model applicability patterns. Prediction model accuracy was summarized as the Network Relative Model Accuracy (NeRMA) Score which ranges from -∞ through 0 (accuracy of random guessing) to 1 (accuracy of most accurate model in concurrent external validation). Results: The unbiased prediction model had the highest SBS. The NeRMA score correctly ranked all simulated prediction models by the extent of bias from the known risk function. A SAS macro and R-function was created to implement the NeRMA Score. Conclusions: The NeRMA Score makes it possible to quantify the accuracy of binomial prediction models having distinct inclusion criteria in a concurrent external validation.

Keywords: prediction model accuracy, scaled brier score, fixed effects methods, concurrent external validation

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Authors: Mohamed Hamada Abdelkader Fayed

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Background: To evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of (ADD-RS) with D-dimer as a screening test to exclude AAS. Methods: We conducted research for the studies examining the diagnostic accuracy of (ADD- RS)+ D-dimer to exclude the diagnosis of AAS, We searched MEDLINE, Embase, and Cochrane of Trials up to 31 December 2020. Results: We identified 3 studies using (ADD-RS) with D-dimer as a diagnostic tool for AAS, involving 3261 patients were AAS was diagnosed in 559(17.14%) patients. Overall results showed that the pooled sensitivities were 97.6 (95% CI 0.95.6, 99.6) at (ADD-RS)≤1(low risk group) with D-dimer and 97.4(95% CI 0.95.4,, 99.4) at (ADD-RS)>1(High risk group) with D-dimer., the failure rate was 0.48% at low risk group and 4.3% at high risk group respectively. Conclusions: (ADD-RS) with D-dimer was a useful screening test with high sensitivity to exclude Acute Aortic Syndrome.

Keywords: aortic dissection detection risk score, D-dimer, acute aortic syndrome, diagnostic accuracy

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Authors: Nurul Mazni Abdullah, Saw Kian Cheah, Raha Abdul Rahman, Qurratu 'Aini Musthafa

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Purpose: Candidemia was associated with high mortality in the critically ill patients. Early candidemia prediction is imperative for preemptive antifungal treatment. This study aimed to externally validate the candidemia risk prediction scores by Jameran et al. (2021) by identifying risk factors of acute kidney injury, renal replacement therapy, parenteral nutrition, and multifocal candida colonization. Methods: This single-center, retrospective observational study included all critically ill patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) in a tertiary referral center from January 2018 to December 2023. The study evaluated the candidemia risk prediction score performance by analysing the occurrence of candidemia within the study period. Patients’ demographic characteristics, comorbidities, SOFA scores, and ICU outcomes were analyzed. Patients who were diagnosed with candidemia prior to ICU admission were excluded. Results: A total of 500 patients were analyzed with 2 dropouts due to incomplete data. Validation analysis showed that the candidemia risk prediction score has a sensitivity of 75.00% (95% CI: 59.66-86.81), specificity of 65.35% (95% CI: 60.78-69.72), positive predictive value of 17.28, and negative predictive value of 96.44. The incidence of candidemia was 8.86%, with no significant differences in demographics or comorbidities except for higher SOFA scoring in the candidemia group. The candidemia group showed significantly longer ICU, hospital LOS, and higher ICU in-hospital mortality. Conclusion: This study concluded the candidemia risk prediction score by Jameran et al. (2021) had good sensitivity and a high negative prediction value. Thus, the risk prediction score was validated for candidemia prediction in critically ill patients.

Keywords: Candidemia, intensive care, acute kidney injury, clinical prediction rule, incidence

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Authors: Thidathit Prachanukool, Chaiyaporn Yuksen, Welawat Tienpratarn, Sorravit Savatmongkorngul, Panvilai Tangkulpanich, Chetsadakon Jenpanitpong, Yuranan Phootothum, Malivan Phontabtim, Promphet Nuanprom

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Background: Ruptured appendicitis has a high morbidity and mortality and requires immediate surgery. The Alvarado Score is used as a tool to predict the risk of acute appendicitis, but there is no such score for predicting rupture. This study aimed to developed the prediction score to determine the likelihood of ruptured appendicitis in an Asian population. Methods: This study was diagnostic, retrospectively cross-sectional and exploratory model at the Emergency Medicine Department in Ramathibodi Hospital between March 2016 and March 2018. The inclusion criteria were age >15 years and an available pathology report after appendectomy. Clinical factors included gender, age>60 years, right lower quadrant pain, migratory pain, nausea and/or vomiting, diarrhea, anorexia, fever>37.3°C, rebound tenderness, guarding, white blood cell count, polymorphonuclear white blood cells (PMN)>75%, and the pain duration before presentation. The predictive model and prediction score for ruptured appendicitis was developed by multivariable logistic regression analysis. Result: During the study period, 480 patients met the inclusion criteria; of these, 77 (16%) had ruptured appendicitis. Five independent factors were predictive of rupture, age>60 years, fever>37.3°C, guarding, PMN>75%, and duration of pain>24 hours to presentation. A score > 6 increased the likelihood ratio of ruptured appendicitis by 3.88 times. Conclusion: Using the Ramathibodi Welawat Ruptured Appendicitis Score. (RAMA WeRA Score) developed in this study, a score of > 6 was associated with ruptured appendicitis.

Keywords: predictive model, risk score, ruptured appendicitis, emergency room

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Authors: Yusra Pintaningrum, Ilma Fahira Basyir, Sony Hilal Wicaksono, Vito A. Damay

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Background: Coronary artery calcium (CAC) scores play an important role in improving prognostic accuracy and can be selectively used to guide the allocation of statin therapy for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease outcomes and potentially associated with the occurrence of MACE (Major Adverse Cardiovascular Event) and MI (Myocardial Infarction). Objective: This systematic review and meta-analysis aim to analyze the findings of a study about CAC Score and statin treatment effect on MI and MACE risk. Methods: Search for published scientific articles using the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting, Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis) method conducted on PubMed, Cochrane Library, and Medline databases published in the last 20 years on “coronary artery calcium” AND “statin” AND “cardiovascular disease” Further systematic review and meta-analysis using RevMan version 5.4 were performed based on the included published scientific articles. Results: Based on 11 studies included with a total of 1055 participants, we performed a meta-analysis and found that individuals with CAC score > 0 increased risk ratio of MI 8.48 (RR = 9.48: 95% CI: 6.22 – 14.45) times and MACE 2.48 (RR = 3.48: 95% CI: 2.98 – 4.05) times higher than CAC score 0 individual. Statin compared against non-statin treatment showed a statistically insignificant overall effect on the risk of MI (P = 0.81) and MACE (P = 0.89) in an individual with elevated CAC score 1 – 100 (P = 0.65) and > 100 (P = 0.11). Conclusions: This study found that an elevated CAC scores individual has a higher risk of MI and MACE than a non-elevated CAC score individual. There is no significant effect of statin compared against non-statin treatment to reduce MI and MACE in elevated CAC score individuals of 1 – 100 or > 100.

Keywords: coronary artery calcium, statin, cardiovascular disease, myocardial infarction, MACE

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Authors: A. Shirazibeheshti, T. Radwan, A. Ettefaghian, G. Wilson, C. Luca, Farbod Khanizadeh

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Anticholinergic medication has been associated with events such as falls, delirium, and cognitive impairment in older patients. To further assess this, anticholinergic burden scores have been developed to quantify risk. A risk model based on clustering was deployed in a healthcare management system to cluster patients into multiple risk groups according to anticholinergic burden scores of multiple medicines prescribed to patients to facilitate clinical decision-making. To do so, anticholinergic burden scores of drugs were extracted from the literature, which categorizes the risk on a scale of 1 to 3. Given the patients’ prescription data on the healthcare database, a weighted anticholinergic risk score was derived per patient based on the prescription of multiple anticholinergic drugs. This study was conducted on over 300,000 records of patients currently registered with a major regional UK-based healthcare provider. The weighted risk scores were used as inputs to an unsupervised learning algorithm (mean-shift clustering) that groups patients into clusters that represent different levels of anticholinergic risk. To further evaluate the performance of the model, any association between the average risk score within each group and other factors such as socioeconomic status (i.e., Index of Multiple Deprivation) and an index of health and disability were investigated. The clustering identifies a group of 15 patients at the highest risk from multiple anticholinergic medication. Our findings also show that this group of patients is located within more deprived areas of London compared to the population of other risk groups. Furthermore, the prescription of anticholinergic medicines is more skewed to female than male patients, indicating that females are more at risk from this kind of multiple medications. The risk may be monitored and controlled in well artificial intelligence-equipped healthcare management systems.

Keywords: anticholinergic medicines, clustering, deprivation, socioeconomic status

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Authors: Hongmeng Su, Luyu Zhao, Yanyan Qian, Hong Fan

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Aim: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the most common malignant tumors that endanger human health seriously. RNA methylation, especially N6-methyladenosine (m⁶A) and 5-methylcytosine (m⁵C), a crucial epigenetic transcriptional regulatory mechanism, plays an important role in tumorigenesis, progression and prognosis. This research aims to systematically evaluate the prognostic value of m⁶A and m⁵C modulators in HCC patients. Methods: Twenty-four modulators of m⁶A and m⁵C were candidates to analyze their expression level and their contribution to predict the prognosis of HCC. Consensus clustering analysis was applied to classify HCC patients. Cox and LASSO regression were used to construct the risk model. According to the risk score, HCC patients were divided into high-risk and low/medium-risk groups. The clinical pathology factors of HCC patients were analyzed by univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis. Results: The HCC patients were classified into 2 clusters with significant differences in overall survival and clinical characteristics. Nine-gene risk model was constructed including METTL3, VIRMA, YTHDF1, YTHDF2, NOP2, NSUN4, NSUN5, DNMT3A and ALYREF. It was indicated that the risk score could serve as an independent prognostic factor for patients with HCC. Conclusion: This study constructed a Nine-gene risk model by modulators of m⁶A and m⁵C and investigated its effect on the clinical prognosis of HCC. This model may provide important consideration for the therapeutic strategy and prognosis evaluation analysis of patients with HCC.

Keywords: hepatocellular carcinoma, m⁶A, m⁵C, prognosis, RNA methylation

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Authors: Pubudu K. Hitigala Kaluarachchilage, Champike Attanayake, Sasith Rajasooriya, Chris P. Tsokos

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Operating system (OS) security is a key component of computer security. Assessing and improving OSs strength to resist against vulnerabilities and attacks is a mandatory requirement given the rate of new vulnerabilities discovered and attacks occurring. Frequency and the number of different kinds of vulnerabilities found in an OS can be considered an index of its information security level. In the present study five mostly used OSs, Microsoft Windows (windows 7, windows 8 and windows 10), Apple’s Mac and Linux are assessed for their discovered vulnerabilities and the risk associated with each. Each discovered and reported vulnerability has an exploitability score assigned in CVSS score of the national vulnerability database. In this study the risk from vulnerabilities in each of the five Operating Systems is compared. Risk Indexes used are developed based on the Markov model to evaluate the risk of each vulnerability. Statistical methodology and underlying mathematical approach is described. Initially, parametric procedures are conducted and measured. There were, however, violations of some statistical assumptions observed. Therefore the need for non-parametric approaches was recognized. 6838 vulnerabilities recorded were considered in the analysis. According to the risk associated with all the vulnerabilities considered, it was found that there is a statistically significant difference among average risk levels for some operating systems, indicating that according to our method some operating systems have been more risk vulnerable than others given the assumptions and limitations. Relevant test results revealing a statistically significant difference in the Risk levels of different OSs are presented.

Keywords: cybersecurity, Markov chain, non-parametric analysis, vulnerability, operating system

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Authors: Ahmet Parlak, Celalettin Bilgen

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In order to create an effective early warning system, Identification of the risks, preparation and carrying out risk modeling of risk scenarios, taking into account the shortcomings of the old disaster scenarios should be used to improve the system. In the light of this, the importance of risk modeling in creating an effective early warning system is understood. In the scope of TAFRISK project risk modeling trend analysis report on risk modeling developed and a demonstration was conducted for Risk Modeling for flood and mass movements. For risk modeling R&D, studies have been conducted to determine the information, and source of the information, to be gathered, to develop algorithms and to adapt the current algorithms to Turkey’s conditions for determining the risk score in the high disaster risk areas. For each type of the disaster; Disaster Deficit Index (DDI), Local Disaster Index (LDI), Prevalent Vulnerability Index (PVI), Risk Management Index (RMI) have been developed as disaster indices taking danger, sensitivity, fragility, and vulnerability, the physical and economic damage into account in the appropriate scale of the respective type.

Keywords: disaster, hazard, risk modeling, sensor

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Authors: Yu-Chuan Huang

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Introduction: There is a higher mortality rate for unplanned transfer to intensive care units. It also needs a longer length of stay and makes the intensive care unit beds cannot be effectively used. It affects the immediate medical treatment of critically ill patients, resulting in a drop in the quality of medical care. Purpose: The purpose of this study was using SOFA and APACHEII score to analyze the mortality rate of the cases transferred from ED to ICU. According to the score that should be provide an appropriate care as early as possible. Methods: This study was a descriptive experimental design. The sample size was estimated at 220 to reach a power of 0.8 for detecting a medium effect size of 0.30, with a 0.05 significance level, using G-power. Considering an estimated follow-up loss, the required sample size was estimated as 242 participants. Data were calculated by medical system of SOFA and APACHEII score that cases transferred from ED to ICU in 2016. Results: There were 233 participants meet the study. The medical records showed 33 participants’ mortality. Age and sex with QSOFA , SOFA and sex with APACHEII showed p>0.05. Age with APCHHII in ED and ICU showed r=0.150, 0,268 (p < 0.001**). The score with mortality risk showed: ED QSOFA is r=0.235 (p < 0.001**), exp(B)=1.685(p = 0.007); ICU SOFA 0.78 (p < 0.001**), exp(B)=1.205(p < 0.001). APACHII in ED and ICU showed r= 0.253, 0.286 (p < 0.001**), exp(B) = 1.041,1.073(p = 0.017,0.001). For SOFA, a cutoff score of above 15 points was identified as a predictor of the 95% mortality risk. Conclusions: The SOFA and APACHE II were calculated based on initial laboratory data in the Emergency Department, and during the first 24 hours of ICU admission. In conclusion, the SOFA and APACHII score is significantly associated with mortality and strongly predicting mortality. Early predictors of morbidity and mortality, which we can according the predicting score, and provide patients with a detail assessment and proper care, thereby reducing mortality and length of stay.

Keywords: SOFA, APACHEII, mortality, ICU

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Authors: Swati Srivastava, Ashish Kumar Upadhyay

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Using longitudinal data from three waves of Young Lives Study and Ordinary Least Square methods, study has investigated the effect of birth order and arrival of younger siblings on child development in India. Study used child’s height for age z-score, weight for age z-score, BMI for age z-score, Peabody Picture Vocabulary Test (PPVT-Score)c, maths score, Early Grade Reading Assessment Test (ERGA) score, and memory score to measure the physical and cognitive development of child during wave-3. Findings suggest that having a high birth order is detrimental for child development and the gap between adjacent siblings is larger for children late in the birth sequences than early in the birth sequences. Study also reported that not only older siblings but arrival of younger siblings before assessment of test also reduces the development of a child. The effects become stronger in case of female children than male children.

Keywords: height for age z-score, weight for age z-score, BMI for z-score, PPVT score, math score, EGRA score, memory score, birth order, siblings, Young Lives Study, India

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Authors: Issam M Hajjaji, Adel Tajoury, Salah R Benhamid

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The MENA region has the highest prevalence of diabetes in the world. Various risk scores were developed, not all appropriate locally. The objective of this study is to apply the FINDRISC Score to adult Libyan males to determine its significance, sensitivity, specificity and Positive Predictive Values as an initial screening tool for type 2 diabetes, and suggest a cut-off point. Methods: 600 subjects answered the questionnaire at their place of work, and their waist, weight, height & BP were measured. Thereafter, after excluding those with known diabetes, an Oral Glucose Tolerance Test was done. Results: 414 subjects aged 19-78 completed the questionnaire and tests. 35 (8.4%) had impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) and 13 (3.1%) had diabetes (DM). The AUC-ROC for IGT was 0.614 (95% CI: 0.527-0.701), for DM 0.810 (95% CI: 0.709-0.911) and for both 0.689 (95% CI: 0.609-0.769). The Positive Predictive Value for a cut-off score of 5 were 15.5%, 11.7% & 5.7% for both conditions combined, prediabetes & diabetes respectively. The equivalent values for a cut-off score of 8 were 16.1%, 9.0% & 7.7%. The Negative Predictive Values were uniformly above 90%. Conclusions & Recommendations: The FINDRISC Score had a low predictive value for dysglycaemia in this sample and performed at a level of significance for IGT that is similar to other MENA countries, but did better for DM. A larger sample that included women is suggested, with a view of adjusting the Score to suit the local population.

Keywords: diabetes, FINDRISK, Libya, prediabetes

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Authors: Philippe Dillien, Patrice Forget, Harald Engel, Olivier Cornu, Marc De Kock, Jean Cyr Yombi

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Introduction: Hip fracture precedes commonly death in elderly people. Identification of high-risk patients may contribute to target patients in whom optimal management, resource allocation and trials efficiency is needed. The aim of this study is to construct a predictive score of mortality after hip fracture on the basis of the objective prognostic factors available: Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), age, and sex. C-Reactive Protein (CRP), is also considered as an alternative to the NLR. Patients and methods: After the IRB approval, we analyzed our prospective database including 286 consecutive patients with hip fracture. A score was constructed combining age (1 point per decade above 74 years), sex (1 point for males), and NLR at postoperative day+5 (1 point if >5). A receiver-operating curve (ROC) curve analysis was performed. Results: From the 286 patients included, 235 were analyzed (72 males and 163 females, 30.6%/69.4%), with a median age of 84 (range: 65 to 102) years, mean NLR values of 6.47+/-6.07. At one year, 82/280 patients died (29.3%). Graphical analysis and log-rank test confirm a highly statistically significant difference (P<0.001). Performance analysis shows an AUC of 0.72 [95%CI 0.65-0.79]. CRP shows no advantage on NLR. Conclusion: We have developed a score based on age, sex and the NLR to predict the risk of mortality at one year in elderly patients after surgery for a hip fracture. After external validation, it may be included in clinical practice as in clinical research to stratify the risk of postoperative mortality.

Keywords: neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, hip fracture, postoperative mortality, medical and health sciences

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Authors: Mohammad Aziz Shah Mohamed Arip, Aslina Ahmad, Fauziah Mohd Sa'ad, Samsiah Mohd Jais, Syed Sofian Syed Salim

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This experimental study evaluates the effect of using Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy (CBT) and Multidimensional Self-Concept Model (MSCM) in a drug prevention programme to increase resiliency and reduce aggression among at-risk youth in Malaysia. A number of 60 (N=60) university students who were at-risk of taking drugs were involved in this study. Participants were identified with self-rating scales, Adolescent Resilience Attitude Scale (ARAS) and Aggression Questionnaire. Based on the mean score of these instruments, the participants were divided into the treatment group, and the control group. Data were analyzed using t-test. The finding showed that the mean score of resiliency was increased in the treatment group compared to the control group. It also shows that the mean score of aggression was reduced in the treatment group compared to the control group. Drug Prevention Programme was found to help in enhancing resiliency and reducing aggression among participants in the treatment group compared to the controlled group. Implications were given regarding the preventive actions on drug abuse among youth in Malaysia.

Keywords: drug prevention programme, cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT), multidimensional self concept model (MSCM), resiliency, aggression, at-risk youth

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Authors: Zehra Buyuktuncer, Aylin H. Büyükkaragöz, Tuğçe N. Balcı, Nevin Ergun

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Background: Undergoing rigid dietary habits for enhancing athletic performance could lead to eating disorders. High prevalence of eating disorders among female athletes has been already reported. However, the risk of disordered eating among disabled athletes is not known. A better knowledge of the different eating behaviors and their prevalence in disabled athletes would be helpful to understand interactions between eating and health. This study aimed to examine the cognitive restraint, uncontrolled eating and emotional eating behaviors in a disabled athlete population. Method: A total of 70 disabled Turkish national athletes (33 female, 37 male) from 5 sport branches (soccer, weight lifting, shooting, table tennis and basketball) were involved in the study. The cognitive restraint, uncontrolled eating and emotional eating behaviors were assessed using the revised version of Three Factor Eating Questionnaire-R18 (TFEQ-R18). The questionnaires were conducted by dietitian during the preparation camps of athletes. Body weight, height and waist circumference (WC) were measured; and body composition was analyzed by bioelectrical impedance analysis method. Results: The TFEQ scales showed a cognitive dietary restraint score of 13.9±4.2, uncontrolled eating score of 17.7±5.8 and emotional eating score of 4.9±2.5. The mean score of total TFEQ-R18 was 36.5±8.62. Neither total TFEQ-R18 score nor subscale scores differed significantly by gender or sport branches (p>0.05, for each). The scores were also similar in BMI groups (n=63; p>0.05). Total TFEQ, uncontrolled eating and emotional eating scores were significantly higher among the athletes with congenital disabilities compared to the scores of the athletes with acquired disabilities (p<0.05, for each). Moreover, the cognitive dietary restraint score was significantly high in athletes who would like to lose weight (p=0.009). Conclusion: Disabled athletes might have a risk of disordered eating. The different eating behaviors among disabled athletes should be assessed using validated tools to develop personalized nutritional strategies for those athletes.

Keywords: disabled athletes, eating behaviour, three-factor eating questionnaire-r18, body composition

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Authors: M. V. Shivaani, P. K. Jain, Surendra S. Yadav

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Risk management has been gaining extensive focus from international organizations like Committee of Sponsoring Organizations and Financial Stability Board, and, the foundation of such an effective and efficient risk management system lies in a strong risk governance structure. In view of this, an attempt (perhaps a first of its kind) has been made to develop a risk governance index, which could be used as proxy for quality of risk governance structures. The index (normative framework) is based on eleven variables, namely, size of board, board diversity in terms of gender, proportion of executive directors, executive/non-executive status of chairperson, proportion of independent directors, CEO duality, chief risk officer (CRO), risk management committee, mandatory committees, voluntary committees and existence/non-existence of whistle blower policy. These variables are scored on a scale of 1 to 5 with the exception of the variables, namely, status of chairperson and CEO duality (which have been scored on a dichotomous scale with the score of 3 or 5). In case there is a legal/statutory requirement in respect of above-mentioned variables and there is a non-compliance with such requirement a score of one has been envisaged. Though there is no legal requirement, for the larger part of study, in context of CRO, risk management committee and whistle blower policy, still a score of 1 has been assigned in the event of their non-existence. Recognizing the importance of these variables in context of risk governance structure and the fact that the study basically focuses on risk governance, the absence of these variables has been equated to non-compliance with a legal/statutory requirement. Therefore, based on this the minimum score is 15 and the maximum possible is 55. In addition, an attempt has been made to explore the determinants of this index. For this purpose, the sample consists of non-financial companies (429) that constitute S&P CNX500 index. The study covers a 10 years period from April 1, 2005 to March 31, 2015. Given the panel nature of data, Hausman test was applied, and it suggested that fixed effects regression would be appropriate. The results indicate that age and size of firms have significant positive impact on its risk governance structures. Further, post-recession period (2009-2015) has witnessed significant improvement in quality of governance structures. In contrast, profitability (positive relationship), leverage (negative relationship) and growth (negative relationship) do not have significant impact on quality of risk governance structures. The value of rho indicates that about 77.74% variation in risk governance structures is due to firm specific factors. Given the fact that each firm is unique in terms of its risk exposure, risk culture, risk appetite, and risk tolerance levels, it appears reasonable to assume that the specific conditions and circumstances that a company is beset with, could be the biggest determinants of its risk governance structures. Given the recommendations put forth in the paper (particularly for regulators and companies), the study is expected to be of immense utility in an important yet neglected aspect of risk management.

Keywords: corporate governance, ERM, risk governance, risk management

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Authors: Ahmad Shahfarhat, Ashraf Mohammadzade, Reza Saeedi, Hadi Hesari

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Background: Mothers of infants admitted at NICU are vulnerable to depression (affecting 10 to 20% of mothers during the first year after delivery) As you know, about half of women with prominent postpartum depression (PPD) symptoms are not diagnosed. The Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS) is the most widely used screening instrument for PPD. In this study, we checked EPDS score of 12 or more on the second day (D2), discharge, day 28(D28), and day42 (D42) postpartum to determine the risk factors as well as the prevalence of PPD in a sample of mothers of NICU admitted neonates. Methods: A sample of 682 women used the EPDS on admission and at discharge. An assessment for PPD was performed on D28 and D42 by a telephone interview. Results: On admission, the average score on EPDS was 9.72 (SD = 4.4), and 27.4% of women (187) had an EPDS score ≥12. On Discharge, 4weeks and 6weeks postpartum the average score was ordinary 9.34 (SD = 3.8), 9.12 (SD = 3.7), 8.52(SD = 3.36), and (173)25.4 %,( 141)23.3 %,( 88)15.3% of women presented with PPD. a positive correlation was found between scores on EPDS on admission and D42 (P = 0.001). An analysis shows that mothers of twins (P = 0.001) and higher age mothers (P=0.001) are significantly associated with PPD. Conclusion: Women with EPDS score more than 12 and/or older will benefit from a closer follow-up during the rest of the post-partum period, and it is better to be under psychological support.

Keywords: NICU, depression, pregnancy, mothers

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Authors: Rohin Rameswarapu, Sameer Valsangkar

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Background: Globally, musculoskeletal disorders are the largest single cause of work-related illnesses accounting for over 33% of all newly reported occupational illnesses. Risk factors for MSD need to be delineated to suggest means for amelioration. Material and methods: In this current cross-sectional study, the prevalence of MSDs among workers in an electrical company assembly line, the socio-demographic and job characteristics associated with MSD were obtained through a semi-structured questionnaire. A quantitative assessment of the physical risk factors through the Rapid Upper Limb Assessment (RULA) tool, and measurement of psychosocial risk factors through a Likert scale was obtained. Statistical analysis was conducted using Epi-info software and descriptive and inferential statistics including chi-square and unpaired t test were obtained. Results: A total of 263 workers consented and participated in the study. Among these workers, 200 (76%) suffered from MSD. Most of the workers were aged between 18–27 years and majority of the workers were women with 198 (75.2%) of the 263 workers being women. A chi square test was significant for association between male gender and MSD with a P value of 0.007. Among the MSD positive group, 4 (2%) had a grand score of 5, 10 (5%) had a grand score of 6 and 186 (93%) had a grand score of 7 on RULA. There were significant differences between the non-MSD and MSD group on five out of the seven psychosocial domains, namely job demand, job monotony, co-worker support, decision control and family and environment domains. Discussion: The current cross-sectional study demonstrates a high prevalence of MSD among assembly line works with inherent physical and psychosocial risk factors and recommends that not only physical risk factors, addressing psychosocial risk factors through proper ergonomic means is also essential to the well-being of the employee.

Keywords: musculoskeletal disorders, India, occupational health, Rapid Upper Limb Assessment (RULA)

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Authors: Thitaporn Thoopputra, Tipaporn Pongmesa, Shuchuen Li

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Aims: To evaluate the application of non-invasive diabetes risk assessment tool in community pharmacy setting. Methods: Thai diabetes risk score was applied to assess individuals at risk of developing type 2 diabetes. Interactive computer-based risk screening (IT) and paper-based risk screening (PT) tools were applied. Participants aged over 25 years with no known diabetes were recruited in six participating pharmacies. Results: A total of 187 clients, mean aged (+SD) was 48.6 (+10.9) years. 35% were at high risk. The mean value of willingness-to-pay for the service fee in IT group was significantly higher than PT group (p=0.013). No significant difference observed for the satisfaction between groups. Conclusions: Non-invasive risk assessment tool, whether paper-based or computerized-based can be applied in community pharmacy to support the enhancing role of pharmacists in chronic disease management. Long term follow up is needed to determine the impact of its application in clinical, humanistic and economic outcomes.

Keywords: community pharmacy, intervention, prevention, risk assessment, type 2 diabetes

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Authors: Yuki Irie, Shota Ogawa, Hitomi Kosugi, Hiromitsu Shinozaki

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Background: Dropout from higher educational institutions is a major problem both for students and institutions, and poor mental health is one of the risk factors. Medical college students are at higher risk of poor mental health than general students because of their hard academic schedules. On the other hand, food insecurity has negative impacts on mental health. The healthcare college of the project site is located heavily snowy area. The students without own vehicles may be at higher risk of food insecurity, especially in the winter season. Therefore, they have many risks to mental health. The aim of the study is to clarify the relationship between mental health and its risk factors to promote students’ mental well-being. Method: A cross-sectional design was used to investigate the relationship between mental health status and lifestyle, including diet and food security among the students (n=421, 147 male, 274 females; 20.7 ± 2.8 years old). Participants were required to answer 3 questionnaires which consisted of diet, lifestyle, food security, and mental health. The survey was conducted during the snowy season from Dec. 2022 to Jan. 2023. Results: Mean mental score was 6.7±4.6 (max. score 27, a higher score means worse mental health). Significant risk factors in mental health were breakfast habit (p=0.02), subjective dietary habit (p=0.00), subjective health (p=0.00), exercise habit (p=0.02), food insecurity in the winter season (p=0.01), and vitamin A intakes (p=0.03). Conclusions: Nutrients intakes are not associated with mental health except vitamin A; however, some other lifestyle factors are significantly associated with mental health. Nutrition doesn’t lead to poor mental health directly; however, the promotion of a healthy lifestyle and improved food security in winter may be effective in better mental health.

Keywords: mental health, winter, lifestyle, students

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Authors: Petar Dobrev

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There is no agreed-upon definition of firm quality. While profitability and stock performance often qualify as popular proxies of quality, in this project, we aim to identify quality without relying on a firm’s financial statements or stock returns as selection criteria. Instead, we use firm-level data on management practices across small to medium-sized U.S. manufacturing firms from the World Management Survey (WMS) to measure firm quality. Each firm in the WMS dataset is assigned a mean management score from 0 to 5, with higher scores identifying better-managed firms. This management score serves as our proxy for firm quality and is the sole criteria we use to separate firms into portfolios comprised of high-quality and low-quality firms. We define high-quality (low-quality) firms as those firms with a management score of one standard deviation above (below) the mean. To study whether this proxy for firm quality can identify better-performing firms, we link this data to Compustat and The Center for Research in Security Prices (CRSP) to obtain firm-level data on financial performance and monthly stock returns, respectively. We find that from 1999 to 2019 (our sample data period), firms in the high-quality portfolio are consistently more profitable — higher operating profitability and return on equity compared to low-quality firms. In addition, high-quality firms also exhibit a lower risk of bankruptcy — a higher Altman Z-score. Next, we test whether the stocks of the firms in the high-quality portfolio earn superior risk-adjusted excess returns. We regress the monthly excess returns on each portfolio on the Fama-French 3-factor, 4-factor, and 5-factor models, the betting-against-beta factor, and the quality-minus-junk factor. We find no statistically significant differences in excess returns between both portfolios, suggesting that stocks of high-quality (well managed) firms do not earn superior risk-adjusted returns compared to low-quality (poorly managed) firms. In short, our proxy for firm quality, the WMS management score, can identify firms with superior financial performance (higher profitability and reduced risk of bankruptcy). However, our management proxy cannot identify stocks that earn superior risk-adjusted returns, suggesting no statistically significant relationship between managerial quality and stock performance.

Keywords: excess stock returns, management, profitability, quality

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Authors: M. C. Arcuri, L. Gai, F. Ielasi

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Italian Central Guarantee Fund (CGF) has the purpose to facilitate Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs)’ access to credit. The aim of the paper is to study the evaluation method adopted by the CGF with regard to SMEs requiring its intervention. This is even more important in the light of the recent CGF reform. We analyse an initial sample of more than 500.000 guarantees from 2012 to 2018. We distinguish between a counter-guarantee delivered to a mutual guarantee institution and a guarantee directly delivered to a bank. We investigate the impact of variables related to the operations and the SMEs on Altman Z’’-score and the score consistent with CGF methodology. We verify that the type of intervention affects the scores and the initial condition changes with the new assessment criterions. 

Keywords: banks, default risk, Italian guarantee fund, mutual guarantee institutions

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Authors: Mohammed El-Arbi Khalfallah, Mohamed Lakhdar Hadji

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Managing and controlling risk is a topic research in the world of finance. Before a risky situation, the stakeholders need to do comparison according to the positions and actions, and financial institutions must take measures of a particular market risk and credit. In this work, we study a model of risk measure in finance: Value at Risk (VaR), which is a new tool for measuring an entity's exposure risk. We explain the concept of value at risk, your average, tail, and describe the three methods for computing: Parametric method, Historical method, and numerical method of Monte Carlo. Finally, we briefly describe advantages and disadvantages of the three methods for computing value at risk.

Keywords: average value at risk, conditional value at risk, tail value at risk, value at risk

Procedia PDF Downloads 440