Search results for: natural hazard risks

Authors: Amalia Zuhra

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Indonesia is very rich with its natural resources. Natural resource management becomes a challenge for Indonesia. Improper management will make the natural resources run out and future generations will not be able to enjoy the natural wealth. A good rule of law and proper implementation determines the success of the management of a country's natural resources. This paper examines the need to redefine problems and challenges in the management of natural resources in Indonesia in the context of law. The purpose of this article is to overview the latest issues and challenges in natural resource management and to redefine legal provisions related to environmental management and human rights protection so that the management of natural resources in the present and future will be more sustainable. This paper finds that sustainable management of natural resources is absolutely essential. The aspect of environmental protection and human rights must be elaborated more deeply so that the management of natural resources can be done maximally without harming not only people but also the environment.

Keywords: international environmental law, human rights law, natural resource management, sustainable development

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Authors: Abd El-Aziz Khairy Abd El-Aal, Yuji Yagi, Heba Kamal

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In this study, an integrated multi-channel analysis of Surface Waves (MASW) technique is applied to explore the geotechnical parameters of subsurface layers at the Zafarana wind farm. Moreover, a seismic hazard procedure based on the extended deterministic technique is used to estimate the seismic hazard load for the investigated area. The study area includes many active fault systems along the Gulf of Suez that cause many moderate and large earthquakes. Overall, the seismic activity of the area has recently become better understood following the use of new waveform inversion methods and software to develop accurate focal mechanism solutions for recent recorded earthquakes around the studied area. These earthquakes resulted in major stress-drops in the Eastern desert and the Gulf of Suez area. These findings have helped to reshape the understanding of the seismotectonic environment of the Gulf of Suez area, which is a perplexing tectonic domain. Based on the collected new information and data, this study uses an extended deterministic approach to re-examine the seismic hazard for the Gulf of Suez region, particularly the wind turbine towers at Zafarana Wind Farm and its vicinity. Alternate seismic source and magnitude-frequency relationships were combined with various indigenous attenuation relationships, adapted within a logic tree formulation, to quantify and project the regional exposure on a set of hazard maps. We select two desired exceedance probabilities (10 and 20%) that any of the applied scenarios may exceed the largest median ground acceleration. The ground motion was calculated at 50th, 84th percentile levels.

Keywords: MASW, seismic hazard, wind turbine towers, Zafarana wind farm

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Authors: Alisha Khanal, Gokhan Saygili

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It is commonly observed that aftershocks follow the mainshock. Aftershocks continue over a period of time with a decreasing frequency and typically there is not sufficient time for repair and retrofit between a mainshock–aftershock sequence. Usually, aftershocks are smaller in magnitude; however, aftershock ground motion characteristics such as the intensity and duration can be greater than the mainshock due to the changes in the earthquake mechanism and location with respect to the site. The seismic performance of slopes is typically evaluated based on the sliding displacement predicted to occur along a critical sliding surface. Various empirical models are available that predict sliding displacement as a function of seismic loading parameters, ground motion parameters, and site parameters but these models do not include the aftershocks. The seismic risks associated with the post-mainshock slopes ('damaged slopes') subjected to aftershocks is significant. This paper extends the empirical sliding displacement models for flexible slopes subjected to earthquake mainshock-aftershock sequences (a multi hazard approach). A dataset was developed using 144 pairs of as-recorded mainshock-aftershock sequences using the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center (PEER) database. The results reveal that the combination of mainshock and aftershock increases the seismic demand on slopes relative to the mainshock alone; thus, seismic risks are underestimated if aftershocks are neglected.

Keywords: seismic slope stability, mainshock, aftershock, landslide, earthquake, flexible slopes

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Authors: Laura Micheli, Majd Hijazi, Mahmoud Faytarouni

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The damage reported by oil and gas industrial facilities revealed the utmost vulnerability of steel liquid storage tanks to seismic events. The failure of steel storage tanks may yield devastating and long-lasting consequences on built and natural environments, including the release of hazardous substances, uncontrolled fires, and soil contamination with hazardous materials. It is, therefore, fundamental to reliably predict the damage that steel liquid storage tanks will likely experience under future seismic hazard events. The seismic performance of steel liquid storage tanks is usually assessed using vulnerability curves obtained from the numerical simulation of a tank under different hazard scenarios. However, the computational demand of high-fidelity numerical simulation models, such as finite element models, makes the vulnerability assessment of liquid storage tanks time-consuming and often impractical. As a solution, this paper presents a surrogate model-based strategy for predicting seismic-induced damage in steel liquid storage tanks. In the proposed strategy, the surrogate model is leveraged to reduce the computational demand of time-consuming numerical simulations. To create the data set for training the surrogate model, field damage data from past earthquakes reconnaissance surveys and reports are collected. Features representative of steel liquid storage tank characteristics (e.g., diameter, height, liquid level, yielding stress) and seismic excitation parameters (e.g., peak ground acceleration, magnitude) are extracted from the field damage data. The collected data are then utilized to train a surrogate model that maps the relationship between tank characteristics, seismic hazard parameters, and seismic-induced damage via a data-driven surrogate model. Different types of surrogate algorithms, including naïve Bayes, k-nearest neighbors, decision tree, and random forest, are investigated, and results in terms of accuracy are reported. The model that yields the most accurate predictions is employed to predict future damage as a function of tank characteristics and seismic hazard intensity level. Results show that the proposed approach can be used to estimate the extent of damage in steel liquid storage tanks, where the use of data-driven surrogates represents a viable alternative to computationally expensive numerical simulation models.

Keywords: damage prediction , data-driven model, seismic performance, steel liquid storage tanks, surrogate model

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Authors: Alena Dadova, Katarina Holla, Anna Cidlinova, Linda Makovicka Osvaldova, Jiri Vala, Samuel Kockar

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Occupational health and safety (ASH) is an area in which procedures and applications are constantly evolving and changing through legislation and new directives and guidelines. In this way, the relevant organizations strive to ensure continuous progress and the advantage of up-to-date information to ensure safety and prevent occupational accidents. Three ESENER surveys have been carried out in the European Union, led by the Agency for Safety and Health at Work (EU-OSHA). On the basis of surveys, it was determined how European workplaces manage risks and how they manage the field of safety and health protection at work. Thousands of companies and organizations in the European Union were involved in the surveys. Organizations and businesses were presented with a questionnaire that focused on the following topics: the impact of general risks on the field of OSH and the possibility of their management, psychosocial risks and other factors such as stress, harassment and bullying, and employee participation in OSH procedures. The article is dedicated to the fundamental conclusions from these surveys and their subsequent connection with the strategic intent of the Strategic Framework of European Union for the years 2021 - 2027. In the conclusion, emerging risks are identified and EU will soon have to deal with them.

Keywords: ESENER, emerging risks, strategic framework in OSH, EU

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Authors: Mustafa M. Bob, Norhan Rahman, Abdalla Elamin, Saud Taher

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The objective of this study was to assess the suitability of Madinah city groundwater for irrigation purposes. Of the twenty three wells that were drilled in different locations in the city for the purposes of this study, twenty wells were sampled for water quality analyses. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) classification of irrigation water that is based on Sodium hazard (SAR) and salinity hazard was used for suitability assessment. In addition, the residual sodium carbonate (RSC) was calculated for all samples and also used for irrigation suitability assessment. Results showed that all groundwater samples are in the acceptable quality range for irrigation based on RSC values. When SAR and salinity hazard were assessed, results showed that while all groundwater samples (except one) fell in the acceptable range of SAR, they were either in the high or very high salinity zone which indicates that care should be taken regarding the type of soil and crops in the study area.

Keywords: irrigation suitability, TDS, salinity, SAR

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Authors: Amir Shouri, Fereshteh Tabe

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Master planning and urban infrastructure’s thoughtful and sequential design strategies will play the major role in reducing the damages of natural disasters, war and or social/population related conflicts for cities. Defensive strategies have been revised during the history of mankind after having damages from natural depressions, war experiences and terrorist attacks on cities. Lessons learnt from Earthquakes, from 2 world war casualties in 20th century and terrorist activities of all times. Particularly, after Hurricane Sandy of New York in 2012 and September 11th attack on New York’s World Trade Centre (WTC) in 21st century, there have been series of serious collaborations between law making authorities, urban planners and architects and defence related organizations to firstly, getting prepared and/or prevent such activities and secondly, reduce the human loss and economic damages to minimum. This study will work on developing a model of planning for New York City, where its citizens will get minimum impacts in threat-full time with minimum economic damages to the city after the stress is passed. The main discussion in this proposal will focus on pre-hazard, hazard-time and post-hazard transformative policies and strategies that will reduce the “Life casualties” and will ease “Economic Recovery” in post-hazard conditions. This proposal is going to scrutinize that one of the key solutions in this path might be focusing on all overlaying possibilities on architectural platforms of three fundamental infrastructures, the transportation, the power related sources and defensive abilities on a dynamic-transformative framework that will provide maximum safety, high level of flexibility and fastest action-reaction opportunities in stressful periods of time. “Planning Fore Stress” is going to be done in an analytical, qualitative and quantitative work frame, where it will study cases from all over the world. Technology, Organic Design, Materiality, Urban forms, city politics and sustainability will be discussed in deferent cases in international scale. From the modern strategies of Copenhagen for living friendly with nature to traditional approaches of Indonesian old urban planning patterns, the “Iron Dome” of Israel to “Tunnels” in Gaza, from “Ultra-high-performance quartz-infused concrete” of Iran to peaceful and nature-friendly strategies of Switzerland, from “Urban Geopolitics” in cities, war and terrorism to “Design of Sustainable Cities” in the world, will all be studied with references and detailed look to analysis of each case in order to propose the most resourceful, practical and realistic solutions to questions on “New City Divisions”, “New City Planning and social activities” and “New Strategic Architecture for Safe Cities”. This study is a developed version of a proposal that was announced as winner at MoMA in 2013 in call for ideas for Rockaway after Sandy Hurricane took place.

Keywords: urban scale, city safety, natural disaster, war and terrorism, city divisions, architecture for safe cities

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Authors: Tauhidur Rahman, Kasturi Bhuyan

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In the present paper, Ground Response Analysis at the Rukni irrigation project has been thoroughly investigated. Surface level seismic hazard is mainly used by the practical Engineers for designing the important structures. Surface level seismic hazard can be obtained accounting the soil factor. Structures on soft soil will show more ground shaking than the structure located on a hard soil. The Surface level ground motion depends on the type of soil. Density and shear wave velocity is different for different types of soil. The intensity of the soil amplification depends on the density and shear wave velocity of the soil. Rukni irrigation project is located in the North Eastern region of India, near the Dauki fault (550 Km length) which has already produced earthquakes of magnitude (Mw= 8.5) in the past. There is a probability of a similar type of earthquake occuring in the future. There are several faults also located around the project site. There are 765 recorded strong ground motion time histories available for the region. These data are used to determine the soil amplification factor by incorporation of the engineering properties of soil. With this in view, three of soil bore holes have been studied at the project site up to a depth of 30 m. It has been observed that in Soil bore hole 1, the shear wave velocity vary from 99.44 m/s to 239.28 m/s. For Soil Bore Hole No 2 and 3, shear wave velocity vary from 93.24 m/s to 241.39 m/s and 93.24m/s to 243.01 m/s. In the present work, surface level seismic hazard at the project site has been calculated based on the Probabilistic seismic hazard approach accounting the soil factor.

Keywords: Ground Response Analysis, shear wave velocity, soil amplification, surface level seismic hazard

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Authors: Alisawi Alaa T., Collins P. E. F.

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The analysis and evaluation of slope stability and landslide hazards are landslide hazards are critically important in civil engineering projects and broader considerations of safety. The level of slope stability risk should be identified due to its significant and direct financial and safety effects. Slope stability hazard analysis is performed considering static and/or dynamic loading circumstances. To reduce and/or prevent the failure hazard caused by landslides, a sophisticated and practical hazard analysis method using advanced constitutive modeling should be developed and linked to an effective solution that corresponds to the specific type of slope stability and landslides failure risk. Previous studies on slope stability analysis methods identify the failure mechanism and its corresponding solution. The commonly used approaches include used approaches include limit equilibrium methods, empirical approaches for rock slopes (e.g., slope mass rating and Q-slope), finite element or finite difference methods, and district element codes. This study presents an overview and evaluation of these analysis techniques. Contemporary source materials are used to examine these various methods on the basis of hypotheses, the factor of safety estimation, soil types, load conditions, and analysis conditions and limitations. Limit equilibrium methods play a key role in assessing the level of slope stability hazard. The slope stability safety level can be defined by identifying the equilibrium of the shear stress and shear strength. The slope is considered stable when the movement resistance forces are greater than those that drive the movement with a factor of safety (ratio of the resistance of the resistance of the driving forces) that is greater than 1.00. However, popular and practical methods, including limit equilibrium approaches, are not effective when the slope experiences complex failure mechanisms, such as progressive failure, liquefaction, internal deformation, or creep. The present study represents the first episode of an ongoing project that involves the identification of the types of landslides hazards, assessment of the level of slope stability hazard, development of a sophisticated and practical hazard analysis method, linkage of the failure type of specific landslides conditions to the appropriate solution and application of an advanced computational method for mapping the slope stability properties in the United Kingdom, and elsewhere through geographical information system (GIS) and inverse distance weighted spatial interpolation(IDW) technique. This study investigates and assesses the different assesses the different analysis and solution techniques to enhance the knowledge on the mechanism of slope stability and landslides hazard analysis and determine the available solutions for each potential landslide failure risk.

Keywords: slope stability, finite element analysis, hazard analysis, landslides hazard

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Authors: J. K. Karapetyan

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In this paper seismological-statistical analysis of actual instrumental data on the main tremor of the Great Japan earthquake 11.03.2011 is implemented for finding out the dependence between maximal values of peak ground accelerations (PGA) and epicentric distances. A number of peculiarities of manifestation of accelerations' maximum values at the interval of long epicentric distances are revealed which do not correspond with current scales of seismic intensity.

Keywords: earthquakes, instrumental records, seismic hazard, Japan

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Authors: Malihe Motiei, Nor Hidayati Zakaria, Davide Aloini

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This study aims to present a method to develop the failure measurement model for ERP post-implementation. To achieve this outcome, the study firstly evaluates the suitability of Technology-Organization-Environment framework for the proposed conceptual model. This study explains how to discover the constructs and subsequently to design and evaluate the constructs as formative or reflective. Constructs are used including reflective and purely formative. Then, the risk dimensions are investigated to determine the instruments to examine the impact of risk on ERP failure after implementation. Two construct as formative constructs consist inadequate implementation and poor organizational decision making. Subsequently six construct as reflective construct include technical risks, operational risks, managerial risks, top management risks, lack of external risks, and user’s inefficiency risks. A survey was conducted among Iranian industries to collect data. 69 data were collected from manufacturing sectors and the data were analyzed by Smart PLS software. The results indicated that all measurements included 39 critical risk factors were acceptable for the ERP post-implementation failure model.

Keywords: critical risk factors (CRFs), ERP projects, ERP post-implementation, measurement instruments, ERP system failure measurement model

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Authors: Kiyanoush Ghalavand

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We have a complex paradox in the agriculture and environment sectors in the age of technology. In the one side, the achievements of the science and information ages are shaping to come that is very dangerous than ever last decades. The progress of the past decades is historic, connecting people, empowering individuals, groups, and states, and lifting a thousand people out of land and poverty in the process. Floods are the most frequent natural hazards damaging and recurring of all disasters in Iran. Additionally, floods are morphing into new and even more devastating forms in recent years. Khuzestan and Lorestan Provinces experienced heavy rains that began on March 28, 2019, and led to unprecedented widespread flooding and landslides across the provinces. The study was based on both secondary and primary data. For the present study, a questionnaire-based primary survey was conducted. Data were collected by using a specially designed questionnaire and other instruments, such as focus groups, interview schedules, inception workshops, and roundtable discussions with stakeholders at different levels. Farmers in Khuzestan and Lorestan provinces were the statistical population for this study. Data were analyzed with several software such as ATLASti, NVivo SPSS Win, ،E-Views. According to a factorial analysis conducted for the present study, 10 groups of factors were categorized climatic, economic, cultural, supportive, instructive, planning, military, policymaking, geographical, and human factors. They estimated 71.6 percent of explanatory factors of flood management obstacles in the agricultural sector in Lorestan and Khuzestan provinces. Several recommendations were finally made based on the study findings.

Keywords: chaos theory, natural hazards, risks, environmental risks, paradox

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Authors: Obi Olor, Asu-nnandi Judith, Ishiekwen Bridget

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Regardless of the settled perception that the substitution of saturated fats for starches or unsaturated fats builds low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol in people, in animal models, the relationship of saturated fat intake to the hazard of atherosclerotic cardiovascular ailment in people remains controversial. Clinical trials that supplanted immersed fat with polyunsaturated fat have, for the most part, demonstrated a lessening in CVD occasions, albeit a few reviews demonstrated no impacts. An autonomous relationship of soaked fat admission with CVD chance has not reliably appeared in planned epidemiologic reviews, albeit some have confirmed an expanded hazard in youthful people and in ladies. Substitution of soaked fat by polyunsaturated or monounsaturated fat reduces LDL and HDL cholesterol. Given the differing qualities of these cardio-protective eating methodologies and their healthy parts, one of the needs in research should be to attempt more near trials. These trials decide persistent worthiness, consequences for surrogate markers of hazard, and which at last affects morbidity and mortality.

Keywords: cardiovascular disease, dietary saturated fat, saturated fat, unsaturated fat

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Authors: Karina Reiter, Stefan Dullinger, Christoph Plutzar, Dietmar Moser

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Due to population growth and changing patterns of production and consumption, the demand for natural resources and, as a result, the pressure on Earth’s ecosystems are growing. Biodiversity mapping can be a useful tool for assessing species endangerment or detecting hotspots of extinction risks. This paper explores the benefits of using the change in trophic energy flows as a consequence of the human alteration of the biosphere in biodiversity mapping. To this end, multiple linear regression models were developed to explain species richness in areas where there is no human influence (i.e. wilderness) for three taxonomic groups (birds, mammals, amphibians). The models were then applied to predict (I) potential global species richness using potential natural vegetation (NPPpot) and (II) global ‘actual’ species richness after biomass appropriation using NPP remaining in ecosystems after harvest (NPPeco). By calculating the difference between predicted potential and predicted actual species numbers, maps of estimated species richness loss were generated. Results show that biomass appropriation for human use can indeed be linked to biodiversity loss. Areas for which the models predicted high species loss coincide with areas where species endangerment and extinctions are recorded to be particularly high by the International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources (IUCN). Furthermore, the analysis revealed that while the species distribution maps of the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species used for this research can determine hotspots of biodiversity loss in large parts of the world, the classification system for threatened and extinct species needs to be revised to better reflect local risks of extinction.

Keywords: biodiversity loss, biomass harvest, human appropriation of net primary production, species richness

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Authors: E. Ormeno, C. Gutigny, J. Ruffault, J. Madrigal, M. Guijarro, C. Lecareux, C. Ballini

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Mediterranean plant species feature numerous metabolic and morpho-physiological responses crucial to survive under both, typical Mediterranean drought conditions and future aggravated drought expected by climate change. Whether these adaptive responses will, in turn, increase the ecosystem perturbation in terms of fire hazard, is an issue that needs to be addressed. The aim of this study was to test whether recurrent and aggravated drought in the Mediterranean area favors the accumulation of waxes in leaf litter, with an eventual increase of litter flammability. The study was conducted in 2017 in a garrigue in Southern France dominated by Quercus coccifera, where two drought treatments were used: a treatment with recurrent aggravated drought consisting of ten rain exclusion structures which withdraw part of the annual precipitation since January 2012, and a natural drought treatment where Q. coccifera stands are free of such structures and thus grow under natural precipitation. Waxes were extracted with organic solvent and analyzed by GC-MS and litter flammability was assessed through measurements of the ignition delay, flame residence time and flame intensity (flame height) using an epiradiator as well as the heat of combustion using an oxygen bomb calorimeter. Results show that after 5 years of rain restriction, wax content in the cuticle of leaf litter increases significantly compared to shrubs growing under natural precipitation, in accordance with the theoretical knowledge which expects increases of cuticle waxes in green leaves in order to limit water evapotranspiration. Wax concentrations were also linearly and positively correlated to litter flammability, a correlation that lies on the high flammability own to the long-chain alkanes (C25-C31) found in leaf litter waxes. This innovative investigation shows that climate change is likely to favor ecosystem fire hazard through accumulation of highly flammable waxes in litter. It also adds valuable information about the types of metabolites that are associated with increasing litter flammability, since so far, within the leaf metabolic profile, only terpene-like compounds had been related to plant flammability.

Keywords: cuticular waxes, drought, flammability, litter

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Authors: Anil Sharma, Ajay Kumar Mahur, R. G. Sonkawade, A. C. Sharma, R. Prasad

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In coal fired thermal power stations, large amount of fly ash is produced after burning of coal. Fly ash is spread and distributed in the surrounding area by air and may be deposited on the soil of the region surrounding the power plant. Coal contains increased levels of these radionuclides and fly ash may increase the radioactivity in the soil around the power plant. Radon atoms entering into the pore space from the mineral grain are transported by diffusion and advection through this space until they in turn decay or are released into the atmosphere. In the present study, Soil samples were collected from the region around a Kasimpur Thermal Power Plant, Kasimpur, Aligarh (U.P.). Radon activity, radon surface exhalation and mass exhalation rates were measured using “sealed can technique” using LR 115-type II nuclear track detectors. Radon activities vary from 92.9 to 556.8 Bq m-3 with mean value of 279.8 Bq m-3. Surface exhalation rates (EX) in these samples are found to vary from 33.4 to 200.2 mBq m-2 h-1 with an average value of 100.5 mBq m-2 h-1 whereas, Mass exhalation rates (EM) vary from 1.2 to 7.7 mBq kg-1 h-1 with an average value of 3.8 mBq kg-1 h-1. Activity concentrations of radionuclides were measured in these samples by using a low level NaI (Tl) based gamma ray spectrometer. Activity concentrations of 226Ra 232Th and 40K vary from 12 to 49 Bq kg-1, 24 to 49 Bq kg-1 and 135 to 546 Bq kg-1 with overall mean values of 30.3 Bq kg-1, 38.5 Bq kg-1 and 317.8 Bq kg-1, respectively. Radium equivalent activity has been found to vary from 80.0 to 143.7 Bq kg-1 with an average value of 109.7 Bq kg-1. Absorbed dose rate varies from 36.1 to 66.4 nGy h-1 with an average value of 50.4 nGy h-1 and corresponding outdoor annual effective dose varies from 0.044 to 0.081 mSv with an average value of 0.061 mSv. Values of external and internal hazard index Hex, Hin in this study vary from 0.21 to 0.38 and 0.27 to 0.50 with an average value of 0.29 and 0.37, Respectively. The results will be discussed in light of various factors.

Keywords: natural radioactivity, radium equivalent activity, absorbed dose rate, gamma ray spectroscopy

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Authors: Petcharat  Kerdonfag, Surasak Taneepanichskul, Winai Wadwongtham

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Industrial noise is usually considered as the main impact of the environmental health and safety because its exposure can cause permanently serious hearing damage. Despite providing strictly hearing protection standards and campaigning extensively encouraging public health awareness among industrial workers in Thailand, hazard noise-induced hearing loss has dramatically been massive obstacles for workers’ health. The aims of the study were to explore and specify the hearing threshold levels among steel industrial workers responsible in which higher noise levels of work zone and to examine the relationships of hearing loss and workers’ age and the length of employment in Samut Prakan province, Thailand. Cross-sectional study design was done. Ninety-three steel industrial workers in the designated zone of higher noise (> 85dBA) with more than 1 year of employment from two factories by simple random sampling and available to participate in were assessed by the audiometric screening at regional Samut Prakan hospital. Data of doing screening were collected from October to December, 2016 by the occupational medicine physician and a qualified occupational nurse. All participants were examined by the same examiners for the validity. An Audiometric testing was performed at least 14 hours after the last noise exposure from the workplace. Workers’ age and the length of employment were gathered by the developed occupational record form. Results: The range of workers’ age was from 23 to 59 years, (Mean = 41.67, SD = 9.69) and the length of employment was from 1 to 39 years, (Mean = 13.99, SD = 9.88). Fifty three (60.0%) out of all participants have been exposing to the hazard of noise in the workplace for more than 10 years. Twenty-three (24.7%) of them have been exposing to the hazard of noise less than or equal to 5 years. Seventeen (18.3%) of them have been exposing to the hazard of noise for 5 to 10 years. Using the cut point of less than or equal to 25 dBA of hearing thresholds, the average means of hearing thresholds for participants at 4, 6, and 8 kHz were 31.34, 29.62, and 25.64 dB, respectively for the right ear and 40.15, 32.20, and 25.48 dB for the left ear, respectively. The more developing age of workers in the work zone with hazard of noise, the more the hearing thresholds would be increasing at frequencies of 4, 6, and 8 kHz (p =.012, p =.026, p =.024) for the right ear, respectively and for the left ear only at the frequency 4 kHz (p =.009). Conclusion: The participants’ age in the hazard of noise work zone was significantly associated with the hearing loss in different levels while the length of participants’ employment was not significantly associated with the hearing loss. Thus hearing threshold levels among industrial workers would be regularly assessed and needed to be protected at the beginning of working.

Keywords: hearing threshold levels, hazard of noise, hearing loss, audiometric testing

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Authors: O. Badagadze, G. Sirbiladze, I. Khutsishvili

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The work proposes a decision support methodology for the credit risk minimization in selection of investment projects. The methodology provides two stages of projects’ evaluation. Preliminary selection of projects with minor credit risks is made using the Expertons Method. The second stage makes ranking of chosen projects using the Possibilistic Discrimination Analysis Method. The latter is a new modification of a well-known Method of Fuzzy Discrimination Analysis.

Keywords: expert valuations, expertons, investment project risks, positive and negative discriminations, possibility distribution

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Authors: Yusuf Garba Baba

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The construction industry and housing subsector are fraught with risks that have the potential of negatively impacting on the achievement of project objectives. The success or otherwise of most construction projects depends to large extent on how well these risks have been managed. The recent paradigm shift by the subsector to use of formal risk management approach in contrast to hitherto developed rules of thumb means that risks must not only be identified but also properly assessed and responded to in a systematic manner. The study focused on identifying risks associated with housing development projects and prioritisation assessment of the identified risks in order to provide basis for informed decision. The study used a three-step identification framework: review of literature for similar projects, expert consultation and questionnaire based survey to identify potential risk factors. Delphi survey method was employed in carrying out the relative prioritization assessment of the risks factors using computer-based Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) software. The results show that 19 out of the 50 risks significantly impact on housing development projects. The study concludes that although significant numbers of risk factors have been identified as having relevance and impacting to housing construction projects, economic risk group and, in particular, ‘changes in demand for houses’ is prioritised by most developers as posing a threat to the achievement of their housing development objectives. Unless these risks are carefully managed, their effects will continue to impede success in these projects. The study recommends the adoption and use of the combination of multi-technique identification framework and AHP prioritization assessment methodology as a suitable model for the assessment of risks in housing development projects.

Keywords: risk management, risk identification, risk analysis, analytic hierarchical process

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Authors: Saadoun Abd Errazak, Hafssaoui Abdallah, Fredj Mohamed

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Mining operations open induce risks of instability that can cause landslides and collapse at the bleachers slope. These risks may occur both during and after the operation phase. The magnitude of these risks depends on the mechanical and physical characteristics of the rock mass, the geometrical dimensions of ore bodies, their spatial arrangement, and the state of the operated area. If security and technology measures are not taken into account for this purpose, the environment will be affected. The main objective of this work is to assess these risks by analytical and numerical methods. The study is based on the geological, hydrogeological and geotechnical rock mass of the open pit quarry of Chouf Amar M'sila. The results obtained have allowed us to obtain an acceptable factor of safety and stability study of the open pit.

Keywords: stability, land sliding, numerical modeling, safety factor, open-pit quarry

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Authors: Cabangile Ncengeni Ngwane, Gerald Mills

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Anthropogenic climate change is exacerbating natural hazards such as droughts, heat waves and sea-level rise. The associated risks are the greatest in places where socio-ecological systems are exposed to these changes and the populations and infrastructure are vulnerable. Identifying the communities at risk and enhancing local resilience are key issues in responding to the current and project climate changes. This paper explores the types of risks associated with multiple overlapping hazards in Durban, South Africa where the social, cultural and economic dimensions that contribute to exposure and vulnerability are compounded by its history of apartheid. As a result, climate change risks are highly concentrated in marginalized communities that have the least adaptive capacity. In this research, a Geographic Information System is to explore the spatial correspondence among geographic layers representing hazards, exposure and vulnerability across Durban. This quantitative analysis will allow authors to identify communities at high risk and focus our study on the nature of the current human-environment relationships that result in risk inequalities. This work will employ qualitative methods to critically examine policies (including educational practices and financial support systems) and on-the-ground actions that are designed to improve the adaptive capacity of these communities and meet UN Sustainable Development Goals. This work will contribute to a growing body of literature on disaster risk management, especially as it relates to developing economies where socio-economic inequalities are correlated with ethnicity and race.

Keywords: adaptive capacity, disaster risk reduction, exposure, resilience, South Africa

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Authors: Mohammad Shoraka, Raulina Wojtkiewicz, Karthik Ramanathan

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Following the devastating summer 2021 floods in Germany, catastrophe modelers realized that hazard parameters, such as flow velocity, flood duration, and debris flow, play a significant role in capturing the overall damage potential of such events. Accounting for the location-specific static depth as the only hazard intensity metric may lead to a substantial underestimation of the vulnerability of building stock and, eventually, the loss potential of such catastrophic events. As the flow velocity increases, the hydrodynamic forces acting on various building components are amplified. Longer flood duration leads to water permeating porous components, incurring additional cleanup costs that contribute to an overall increase in damage. Debris flow possesses the power to erode extensive sections of buildings, thus substantially augmenting the extent of losses. This paper introduces four flow velocity classes, ranging from no flow velocity to major velocity, along with two flood duration classes: short and long, in estimating the vulnerability of the building stock. Additionally, the study examines the impact of the presence of debris flow and its role in exacerbating flood damage. The paper delves into the effects of each of these parameters on building component damageability and their collective impact on the overall building vulnerability.

Keywords: catastrophe modeling, building vulnerability, hazard parameters, component damage function

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Authors: Suzanne Phibbs, Christine Kenney, Robyn Richardson

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The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction called for the inclusion of indigenous people in the design and implementation of all hazard policies, plans, and standards. Ensuring that indigenous knowledge practices were included alongside scientific knowledge about disaster risk was also a key priority. Indigenous communities have specific knowledge about climate and natural hazard risk that has been developed over an extended period of time. However, research within indigenous communities can be fraught with issues such as power imbalances between the researcher and researched, the privileging of researcher agendas over community aspirations, as well as appropriation and/or inappropriate use of indigenous knowledge. This paper documents the process of working alongside a Māori community to develop a successful community-led research project. Research Design: This case study documents the development of a qualitative community-led participatory project. The community research project utilizes a kaupapa Māori research methodology which draws upon Māori research principles and concepts in order to generate knowledge about Māori resilience. The research addresses a significant gap in the disaster research literature relating to indigenous knowledge about collective hazard mitigation practices as well as resilience in rurally isolated indigenous communities. The research was designed in partnership with the Ngāti Raukawa Northern Marae Collective as well as Ngā Wairiki Ngāti Apa (a group of Māori sub-tribes who are located in the same region) and will be conducted by Māori researchers utilizing Māori values and cultural practices. The research project aims and objectives, for example, are based on themes that were identified as important to the Māori community research partners. The research methodology and methods were also negotiated with and approved by the community. Kaumātua (Māori elders) provided cultural and ethical guidance over the proposed research process and will continue to provide oversight over the conduct of the research. Purposive participant recruitment will be facilitated with support from local Māori community research partners, utilizing collective marae networks and snowballing methods. It is envisaged that Māori participants’ knowledge, experiences and views will be explored using face-to-face communication research methods such as workshops, focus groups and/or semi-structured interviews. Interviews or focus groups may be held in English and/or Te Reo (Māori language) to enhance knowledge capture. Analysis, knowledge dissemination, and co-authorship of publications will be negotiated with the Māori community research partners. Māori knowledge shared during the research will constitute participants’ intellectual property. New knowledge, theory, frameworks, and practices developed by the research will be co-owned by Māori, the researchers, and the host academic institution. Conclusion: An emphasis on indigenous knowledge systems within the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction risks the appropriation and misuse of indigenous experiences of disaster risk identification, mitigation, and response. The research protocol underpinning this project provides an exemplar of collaborative partnership in the development and implementation of an indigenous project that has relevance to policymakers, academic researchers, other regions with indigenous communities and/or local disaster risk reduction knowledge practices.

Keywords: community resilience, indigenous disaster risk reduction, Maori, research methods

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Authors: Rashid Masoud Ali Al-Mazrui, Ramadhani Mashaka Shabani

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Islamic banks and financial institutions are exposed to the same risks as conventional banking. These risks include the rate return risk, credit or market risk, liquidity risk, and operational risk among others. However, being a financial institution that operates Islamic banking and finance operations, there is additional risk associated with its operations different from conventional finance, such as displacing commercial risk. They face Shari'ah compliance risks because of their failure to follow Shari'ah principles. To have proper mitigation and risk management, banks should have proper risk management policies to mitigate risks. This paper aims to study the risk management taken by Islamic banks in comparison with conventional banks. Also, the study evaluates the provisions for risk management taken by selected Islamic banks and conventional banks. The study employs qualitative analysis using secondary data by applying a content analysis approach with a sample size of 4 Islamic banks and four conventional banks ranging from 2010 to 2020. We find that these banks all use the same technique, except for the associated risk. The extra ways are used, but only for additional risks that are available to Islamic banking and finance.

Keywords: emerging risk, risk management, Islamic banking, conventional bank

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Authors: Hai Chien Pham, Thi Phuong Anh Vo, Chansik Park

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Risks management in construction projects is important to ensure the positive feasibility of the projects in which financial risks are most concerned while construction projects always run on a credit basis. Credit risks, therefore, require unique and technical tools to be well managed. Underwriting technique in credit risks, in its most basic sense, refers to the process of evaluating the risks and the potential exposure of losses. Risks analysis and underwriting are applied as a must in banks and financial institutions who are supporters for constructions projects when required. Recently, construction organizations, especially contractors, have recognized the significant increasing of credit risks which caused negative impacts to project performance and profit of construction firms. Despite the successful application of underwriting in banks and financial institutions for many years, there are few contractors who are applying this technique to analyze and mitigate the credit risks of their potential owners before signing contracts with them for delivering their performed services. Thus, contractors have taken credit risks during project implementation which might be not materialized due to the bankruptcy and/or protracted default made by their owners. With this regard, this study proposes a model using the underwriting technique for contractors to analyze and assess credit risks of their owners before making final decisions for the potential construction contracts. Contractor’s underwriters are able to analyze and evaluate the subjects such as owner, country, sector, payment terms, financial figures and their related concerns of the credit limit requests in details based on reliable information sources, and then input into the proposed model to have the Overall Assessment Score (OAS). The OAS is as a benchmark for the decision makers to grant the proper limits for the project. The proposed underwriting model is validated by 30 subjects in Asia Pacific region within 5 years to achieve their OAS, and then compare output OAS with their own practical performance in order to evaluate the potential of underwriting model for analyzing and assessing credit risks. The results revealed that the underwriting would be a powerful method to assist contractors in making precise decisions. The contribution of this research is to allow the contractors firstly to develop their own credit risk management model for proactively preventing the credit risks of construction projects and continuously improve and enhance the performance of this function during project implementation.

Keywords: underwriting technique, credit risk, risk management, construction project

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Authors: Mustapha Kamel Mihoubi, Reda Madi

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The problem of natural disasters in general and flooding in particular is a topic which marks a memorable action in the world and specifically in cities and large urban areas. Torrential floods and faster flows pose a major problem in urban area. Indeed, a better management of risks of floods becomes a growing necessity that must mobilize technical and scientific means to curb the adverse consequences of this phenomenon, especially in the Saharan cities in arid climate. The aim of this study is to deploy a basic calculation approach based on a hydrologic and hydraulic quantification for locating the black spots in urban areas generated by the flooding and to locate the areas that are vulnerable to flooding. The principle of flooding method is applied to the city of Ghardaia to identify vulnerable areas to inundation and to establish maps management and prevention against the risks of flooding.

Keywords: Alea, Beni Mzab, cartography, HEC-RAS, inundation, torrential, vulnerability, wadi

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Authors: Karim Ahmed

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The purpose of this study was to investigate how factoring the impact of natural disasters beyond flooding would affect managed retreat policy eligibility in the United States. For the study design, a correlation analysis method compared weighted measures of flooding and other natural disasters (e.g., wildfires, tornadoes, heatwaves, etc.) to CBSA Populated areas, the prevalence of cropland, and relative poverty on a county level. The study found that the vast majority of CBSAs eligible for managed retreat programs under a policy inclusive of non-flooding events would have already been covered by flood-only managed retreat policies. However, it is noteworthy that a majority of those counties that are not covered by a flood-only managed retreat policy have high rates of poverty and are either heavily populated and/or agriculturally active. The correlation is particularly strong between counties that are subject to multiple natural hazards and those that have both high rates of relative poverty and cropland prevalence. There is currently no managed retreat policy for agricultural land in the United States despite the environmental implications and food supply chain vulnerabilities related to at-risk cropland. The findings of this study suggest both that such a policy should be created and, when it is, that special attention should be paid to non-flood natural disasters affecting agricultural areas. These findings also reveal that, while current flood-based policies in the United States serve many areas that do need access to managed retreat funding and implementation, other vulnerable areas are overlooked by this approach. These areas are often deeply impoverished and are therefore particularly vulnerable to natural disaster; if and when those disasters do occur, these areas are often less financially prepared to recover or retreat from the disaster’s advance and, due to the limitations of the current policies discussed above, are less able to take the precautionary measures necessary to mitigate their risk.

Keywords: flood, hazard, land use, managed retreat, wildfire

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Authors: Neyzielle Ronnicque Cadiz

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The Philippine is a hotbed of disasters and is a locus of natural hazards. With an average of 20 typhoons entering the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) each year, seven to eight (7-8) of which makes landfall. The country rather inevitably suffers from climate-related calamities. With this vulnerability to natural hazards, the relevant hazard-related issues that come along with the potential threat and occurrence of a disaster oftentimes garners lesser media attention than when a disaster actually occurred. Post-disaster news and events flood the content of news networks primarily focusing on, but not limited to, the efforts of the national government in resolving post-disaster displacement, and all the more on the community leaders’ incompetence in disaster mitigation-- even though the University of the Philippines’ NOAH Center work hand in hand with different stakeholders for disaster mitigation communication efforts. Disaster risk communication is actually a perennial dilemma. There are so many efforts to reach the grassroots level but emergency and disaster preparedness messages inevitably fall short.. The Philippines is very vulnerable to hazards risk and disasters but social media posts and communication efforts mostly go unnoticed, if not argued upon. This study illustrates the outcomes of a research focusing on the print, broadcast, and social media’s role on disaster communication involving the natural catastrophic events that took place in the Philippines from 2009 to present. Considering the country’s state of development, this study looks on the rapid and reliable communication between the government, and the relief/rescue workers in the affected regions; and how the media portrays these efforts effectively. Learning from the disasters that have occurred in the Philippines over the past decade, effective communication can ensure that any efforts to prepare and respond to disasters can make a significant difference. It can potentially either break or save lives. Recognizing the role of communications is not only in improving the coordination of vital services for post disaster; organizations gave priority in reexamining disaster preparedness mechanisms through the Communication with Communities (CwC) programs. This study, however, looks at the CwC efforts of the Philippine media platforms. CwC, if properly utilized by the media, is an essential tool in ensuring accountability and transparency which require effective exchange of information between disasters and survivors and responders. However, in this study, it shows that the perennial dilemma of the Philippine media is that the Disaster Risk Reduction and Management (DRRM) efforts of the country lie in the clouded judgment of political aims. This kind of habit is a multiplier of the country’s risk and insecurity. Sometimes the efforts in urging the public to take action seem useless because the challenge lies on how to achieve social, economic, and political unity using the tri-media platform.

Keywords: Philippines at risk, pre/post disaster communication, tri-media platform, UP NOAH

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Authors: Liane Marcia Freitas Silva, Fernando Augusto Silva Marins, Maria Silene Alexandre Leite

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The adoption of a network structure, like in the supply chains, favors the increase of dependence between companies and, by consequence, their vulnerability. Environment disasters, sociopolitical and economical events, and the dynamics of supply chains elevate the uncertainty of their operation, favoring the occurrence of events that can generate break up in the operations and other undesired consequences. Thus, supply chains are exposed to various risks that can influence the profitability of companies involved, and there are several previous studies that have proposed risk classification models in order to categorize the risks and to manage them. The objective of this paper is to analyze and discuss thirty of these risk classification models by means a theoretical survey. The research method adopted for analyzing and discussion includes three phases: The identification of the types of risks proposed in each one of the thirty models, the grouping of them considering equivalent concepts associated to their definitions, and, the analysis of these risks groups, evaluating their similarities and differences. After these analyses, it was possible to conclude that, in fact, there is more than thirty risks types identified in the literature of Supply Chains, but some of them are identical despite of be used distinct terms to characterize them, because different criteria for risk classification are adopted by researchers. In short, it is observed that some types of risks are identified as risk source for supply chains, such as, demand risk, environmental risk and safety risk. On the other hand, other types of risks are identified by the consequences that they can generate for the supply chains, such as, the reputation risk, the asset depreciation risk and the competitive risk. These results are consequence of the disagreements between researchers on risk classification, mainly about what is risk event and about what is the consequence of risk occurrence. An additional study is in developing in order to clarify how the risks can be generated, and which are the characteristics of the components in a Supply Chain that leads to occurrence of risk.

Keywords: sisks classification, survey, supply chain management, theoretical discussion

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Authors: Imtiaz Ali, Imam Mansoor

Abstract:

Investigations as a part of the academic study were undertaken to identify and evaluate the significant risks associated with the construction of K-span buildings in the region of UAE. Primary field data was collected through questionnaires obtaining specific open and close-ended questions from carefully selected construction firms, civil engineers and, construction manager regarding risks associated to K-span building construction. Historical data available for other regions of the same construction technique was available which was compared for identifying various non-critical and critical risk parameters by comparative evaluation techniques to come up with important risks and potential sources for their control and minimization in K-Span buildings that is increasing in the region. The associated risks have been determined with their Relative Importance Index (RII) values of which Risk involved in Change of Design required by Owners carries the highest value (RII=0.79) whereas, Delayed Payment by Owner to Contractor is one of the least (RII=0.42) value. The overall findings suggest that most relative risks as quantified originate or associated with the contractors. It may be concluded that project proponents undertaking K-span projects in planning and budgeting the cost and delays should take into account of risks on high account if changes in design are also required any delays in the material by the supplier would then be a major risk in K-span project delay. Since projects are, less costly, so owners have limited budgets, then they hire small contractors, which are not highly competent contractors. So study suggests that owner should be aware of these types of risks associated with the construction of K-span buildings in order to make it cost effective.

Keywords: k-span buildings, k-span construction, risk management, relative improvement index (RII)

Procedia PDF Downloads 352