Search results for: incidence rates (IR)
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 3733

Search results for: incidence rates (IR)

3433 Evaluation of the Rheological Properties of Bituminous Binders Modified with Biochars Obtained from Various Biomasses by Pyrolysis Method

Authors: Muhammed Ertuğrul Çeloğlu, Mehmet Yılmaz

Abstract:

In this study, apricot seed shell, walnut shell, and sawdust were chosen as biomass sources. The materials were sorted by using a sieve No. 50 and the sieved materials were subjected to pyrolysis process at 400 °C, resulting in three different biochar products. The resulting biochar products were added to the bitumen at three different rates (5%, 10% and 15%), producing modified bitumen. Penetration, softening point, rotation viscometer and dynamic shear rheometer (DSR) tests were conducted on modified binders. Thus the modified bitumen, which was obtained by using additives at 3 different rates obtained from biochar produced at 400 °C temperatures of 3 different biomass sources were compared and the effects of pyrolysis temperature and additive rates were evaluated. As a result of the conducted tests, it was determined that the rheology of the pure bitumen improved significantly as a result of the modification of the bitumen with the biochar. Additionally, with biochar additive, it was determined that the rutting parameter values obtained from softening point, viscometer and DSR tests were increased while the values in terms of penetration and phase angle decreased. It was also observed that the most effective biomass is sawdust while the least effective was ground apricot seed shell.

Keywords: rheology, biomass, pyrolysis, biochar

Procedia PDF Downloads 143
3432 An Overview of Suicidality in American Indians and Alaska Natives

Authors: Christopher S. Perez, Kendal C. Boyd

Abstract:

global suicide rates have decreased in recent decades, rates in the United States have increased by 35.2 percent since 1999.American Indians and Alaska Natives (AI/AN) have the highest rates of suicide in the U.S., with approximately 22 suicides per 100,000 people as of 2019. AI/AN have experienced significant historical trauma resulting in disproportionate rates of substance abuse and mental disorders. This literature review aimed to identify the demographic and clinical risk and protective factors for American Indians and Alaska Natives and provide an overview of suicidality in this population. The literature reflected varying definitions of suicidality depending on region, with some AI/AN tribesconceptualizing suicide through a spiritual framework, while others defined suicide in the biomedical sense. Furthermore, AI/AN adults and adolescents experienced higher rates of suicidal ideation when compared to other racial groups. Religious preference, sexual orientation, prior suicidal behavior, psychiatric admission, history of abuse, substance abuse, family history of mental illness, family history of substance abuse, family history of suicidal behaviors, domestic violence, and trauma were discussed as factors related to suicidality. Recommendations included increasing access to and utilization of mental health and medical services, culturally adapting suicide prevention programs to AI/AN communities, increasing support for LGBTQ+ AI/AN, providing opportunities that reinforce ethnic identity, and post-hospitalization follow-up care. The following databases were utilized to obtain peer-reviewed articles for this literature review: Complementary Index, Academic Search Premier, Science Direct, PsycInfo, Social Sciences Citation Index, PsycArticles, PubMed, EbscoHost, and PsycBooks. Articles that examined Native populations outside of the United States did not cite a primary source and/or were published before 1990 were excluded.

Keywords: alaska native, american indian, protective factors, risk factors, suicidality, suicide

Procedia PDF Downloads 76
3431 Effects of Poultry Manure Rates on Some Growth and Yield Attributes of Cucumber in Owerri, South Eastern Nigeria

Authors: Chinwe Pearl Poly-Mbah, Evelyn Obioma, Juliet Amajuoyi

Abstract:

The investigation here reported examined growth and yield responses of Cucumber to manure rates in Owerri, Southeastern Nigeria. Fruit vegetables are widely cultivated and produced in Northern Nigeria but greatly consumed in Southern Nigeria where cucumbers command high demand and price but are minimally cultivated. Unfortunately, farmers in northern Nigeria incur lots of losses because cucumber is a perishable vegetable and is transported all the way from the northern Nigeria where cucumbers are produced to Southern Nigeria where cucumbers are consumed, hence the high cost of cucumber fruits in Southern Nigeria. There is a need, therefore, to evolve packages that will enhance cucumber production in Southern Nigeria. The main objective of this study was to examine the effects of poultry manure rates on the growth and yield of cucumber in Owerri, South Eastern Nigeria. Specifically, this study was designed to assess the effect of poultry manure rates on number of days to 50% seedling emergence, vine length/plant, leaf area per plant and the number of leaves produced per plant. The design used for the experiment was Randomized Complete Block Design (RCBD) with three blocks (replications). Treatment consisted of four rates of well-decomposed poultry manure at the rate of 0 tons/ha, 2 tons/ha, 4 tons/ha and 6 tons/ha. Data were collected on number of days to 50% seedling emergence, vine length per plant at two weeks interval, leaf number per plant at two weeks interval, leaf area per plant at two weeks interval, number of fruits produced per plant, and fresh weight of fruits per plant at harvest. Results from the analysis of variance (ANOVA) showed that there were highly significant effects (P=0.05) of poultry manure on growth and yield parameters studied which include number of days to 50% seedling emergence, vine length per plant, leaf number per plant, leaf area per plant, fruit number and fruit weight per plant such that increase in poultry manure rates lead to increase in growth and yield parameters studied. Therefore, the null hypothesis (Ho) was rejected, while the alternative hypothesis was accepted. Farmers should be made to know that growing cucumber with poultry manure in southeastern Nigeria agro ecology is a successful enterprise

Keywords: cucumber, effects, growth and yield, manure

Procedia PDF Downloads 204
3430 Nephroblastoma at Universitas Academic Hospital Complex in the Last 20 Years

Authors: I. Iroka, L. Mgidlana, J. Willoughby, S. Dhlamini, P. Nxumalo, S. Sefadi, A. Mthembu, E. Gerber, E. Brits

Abstract:

Introduction: Nephroblastoma is a common paediatric tumor with good survival rates when diagnosed and treated early. Method: This retrospective study aimed to describe the patients with nephroblastoma seen at Universitas Academic Hospital Complex between the years 2000 and 2020. Results: In the study period, there were 207 patients identified. The patient profile had slightly more male than female patients; the median age was under four years of age. The study found a median delay of one month between symptom onset and diagnosis; a common cause was a delay in seeking care. Patients diagnosed and treated more than a month after symptoms started had poorer survival rates. There was a higher rate of Stage IV disease compared to similar studies in South Africa. Good preoperative histology and no relapse had good survival rates.. Patients from Lesotho had longer delays and presented with more severe diseases than the South African cohort. Conclusion: Early identification and treatment lead to better outcomes. Health-seeking behaviour, misdiagnosis, and referral delays might contribute to the long delays. A targeted study for patients from Lesotho is recommended.

Keywords: nephroblastoma, South Africa, Lesotho, developing country

Procedia PDF Downloads 74
3429 Healthcare Associated Infections in an Intensive Care Unit in Tunisia: Incidence and Risk Factors

Authors: Nabiha Bouafia, Asma Ben Cheikh, Asma Ammar, Olfa Ezzi, Mohamed Mahjoub, Khaoula Meddeb, Imed Chouchene, Hamadi Boussarsar, Mansour Njah

Abstract:

Background: Hospital acquired infections (HAI) cause significant morbidity, mortality, length of stay and hospital costs, especially in the intensive care unit (ICU), because of the debilitated immune systems of their patients and exposure to invasive devices. The aims of this study were to determine the rate and the risk factors of HAI in an ICU of a university hospital in Tunisia. Materials/Methods: A prospective study was conducted in the 8-bed adult medical ICU of a University Hospital (Sousse Tunisia) during 14 months from September 15th, 2015 to November 15th, 2016. Patients admitted for more than 48h were included. Their surveillance was stopped after the discharge from ICU or death. HAIs were defined according to standard Centers for Disease Control and Prevention criteria. Risk factors were analyzed by conditional stepwise logistic regression. The p-value of < 0.05 was considered significant. Results: During the study, 192 patients had admitted for more than 48 hours. Their mean age was 59.3± 18.20 years and 57.1% were male. Acute respiratory failure was the main reason of admission (72%). The mean SAPS II score calculated at admission was 32.5 ± 14 (range: 6 - 78). The exposure to the mechanical ventilation (MV) and the central venous catheter were observed in 169 (88 %) and 144 (75 %) patients, respectively. Seventy-three patients (38.02%) developed 94 HAIs. The incidence density of HAIs was 41.53 per 1000 patient day. Mortality rate in patients with HAIs was 65.8 %( n= 48). Regarding the type of infection, Ventilator Associated Pneumoniae (VAP) and central venous catheter Associated Infections (CVC AI) were the most frequent with Incidence density: 14.88/1000 days of MV for VAP and 20.02/1000 CVC days for CVC AI. There were 5 Peripheral Venous Catheter Associated Infections, 2 urinary tract infections, and 21 other HAIs. Gram-negative bacteria were the most common germs identified in HAIs: Multidrug resistant Acinetobacter Baumanii (45%) and Klebsiella pneumoniae (10.96%) were the most frequently isolated. Univariate analysis showed that transfer from another hospital department (p= 0.001), intubation (p < 10-4), tracheostomy (p < 10-4), age (p=0.028), grade of acute respiratory failure (p=0.01), duration of sedation (p < 10-4), number of CVC (p < 10-4), length of mechanical ventilation (p < 10-4) and length of stay (p < 10-4), were associated to high risk of HAIS in ICU. Multivariate analysis reveals that independent risk factors for HAIs are: transfer from another hospital department: OR=13.44, IC 95% [3.9, 44.2], p < 10-4, duration of sedation: OR= 1.18, IC 95% [1.049, 1.325], p=0.006, high number of CVC: OR=2.78, IC 95% [1.73, 4.487], p < 10-4, and length of stay in ICU: OR= 1.14, IC 95% [1.066,1.22], p < 10-4. Conclusion: Prevention of nosocomial infections in ICUs is a priority of health care systems all around the world. Yet, their control requires an understanding of epidemiological data collected in these units.

Keywords: healthcare associated infections, incidence, intensive care unit, risk factors

Procedia PDF Downloads 350
3428 Ultrasonic Evaluation of Periodic Rough Inaccessible Surfaces from Back Side

Authors: Chanh Nghia Nguyen, Yu Kurokawa, Hirotsugu Inoue

Abstract:

The surface roughness is an important parameter for evaluating the quality of material surfaces since it affects functions and performance of industrial components. Although stylus and optical techniques are commonly used for measuring the surface roughness, they are applicable only to accessible surfaces. In practice, surface roughness measurement from the back side is sometimes demanded, for example, in inspection of safety-critical parts such as inner surface of pipes. However, little attention has been paid to the measurement of back surface roughness so far. Since back surface is usually inaccessible by stylus or optical techniques, ultrasonic technique is one of the most effective among others. In this research, an ultrasonic pulse-echo technique is considered for evaluating the pitch and the height of back surface having periodic triangular profile as a very first step. The pitch of the surface profile is measured by applying the diffraction grating theory for oblique incidence; then the height is evaluated by numerical analysis based on the Kirchhoff theory for normal incidence. The validity of the proposed method was verified by both numerical simulation and experiment. It was confirmed that the pitch is accurately measured in most cases. The height was also evaluated with good accuracy when it is smaller than a half of the pitch because of the approximation in the Kirchhoff theory.

Keywords: back side, inaccessible surface, periodic roughness, pulse-echo technique, ultrasonic NDE

Procedia PDF Downloads 253
3427 New Kinetic Effects in Spatial Distribution of Electron Flux and Excitation Rates in Glow Discharge Plasmas in Middle and High Pressures

Authors: Kirill D. Kapustin, Mikhail B. Krasilnikov, Anatoly A. Kudryavtsev

Abstract:

Physical formation mechanisms of differential electron fluxes is high pressure positive column gas discharge are discussed. It is shown that the spatial differential fluxes of the electrons are directed both inward and outward depending on the energy relaxation law. In some cases the direction of energy differential flux at intermediate energies (5-10eV) in whole volume, except region near the wall, appeared to be down directed, so electron in this region dissipate more energy than gain from axial electric field. Paradoxical behaviour of electron flux in spatial-energy space is presented.

Keywords: plasma kinetics, electron distribution function, excitation and radiation rates, local and nonlocal EDF

Procedia PDF Downloads 375
3426 Descriptive Study of Adverse Drug Reactions in a Paediatric Hospital in Mongolia from 2015 to 2019

Authors: Khaliun Nyambayar, Nomindari Azzaya, Batkhuyag Purevjav

Abstract:

Pharmacovigilance was officially introduced in Mongolia in 2003, in accordance with the Health Minister Order 183 for the registry of adverse drug reactions (ADR), approved in 2006 and was reviewed in 2010. This study was designed to evaluate the incidence and common types of adverse drug reactions among hospitalized children, the frequency of adverse drug reaction reported by health care providers, and the follow-up processes resulting from adverse drug reactions. A retrospective study of paediatric patients who experienced an adverse drug reaction from 2015 to 2019, extracted from the “yellow” card at the State Research Center for Maternal and Child Health, (city). A total of 417 adverse drug reactions were reported with an overall incidence was 80 (21.5%). Adverse reactions resulting from the use of antibiotics (particularly gentamycin, cephalosporins, and vancomycin) were usually mild. ADR’s were reported by physicians and nurses (93.8%), pharmacists (6.25%). Although documentation of physician notification occurred for 93% of adverse drug reactions, only 29% of cases were documented in the patient's medical chart, 13% included follow-up education for individuals involved, and 10% were updated in the allergy profile of the hospital computer system. Measures to improve the detection and reporting of adverse drug reactions by all health care professionals should be improved, to enhance our understanding of the nature and impact of these reactions in children.

Keywords: adverse drug reaction, pediatric, yellow card, Mongolia

Procedia PDF Downloads 87
3425 Outcome of Emergency Response Team System in In-Hospital Cardiac Arrest

Authors: Jirapat Suriyachaisawat, Ekkit Surakarn

Abstract:

Introduction: To improve early detection and mortality rate of In- Hospital Cardiac arrest, Emergency Response Team (ERT) system was planned and implemented since June 2009 to detect pre-arrest conditions and for any concerns. The ERT consisted of on duty physicians and nurses from emergency department. ERT calling criteria consisted of acute change of HR < 40 or > 130 beats per minute, systolic blood pressure < 90mmHg, respiratory rate <8 or > 28 breaths per minute, O2 saturation < 90%, acute change in conscious state, acute chest pain or worried about the patients. From the data on ERT system implementation in our hospital in early phase (during June 2009-2011), there was no statistic significance in difference in In-Hospital cardiac arrest incidence and overall hospital mortality rate. Since the introduction of the ERT service in our hospital, we have conducted continuous educational campaign to improve awareness in an attempt to increase use of the service. Methods: To investigate outcome of ERT system in In-Hospital cardiac arrest and overall hospital mortality rate. We conducted a prospective, controlled before-and after examination of the long term effect of a ERT system on the incidence of cardiac arrest. We performed Chi -square analysis to find statistic significance. Results: Of a total 623 ERT cases from June 2009 until December 2012, there were 72 calls in 2009, 196 calls in 2010 ,139 calls in 2011 and 245 calls in 2012.The number of ERT calls per 1000 admissions in year 2009-10 was 7.69, 5.61 in 2011 and 9.38 in 2013. The number of Code blue calls per 1000 admissions decreased significantly from 2.28 to 0.99 per 1000 admissions (P value < 0.001). The incidence of cardiac arrest decreased progressively from 1.19 to 0.34 per 1000 admissions and significant in difference in year 2012 (P value < 0.001). The overall hospital mortality rate decreased by 8 % from 15.43 to 14.43 per 1000 admissions (P value 0.095). Conclusions: ERT system implementation was associated with progressive reduction in cardiac arrests over three year period, especially statistic significant in difference in 4th year after implementation. We also found an inverse association between number of ERT use and the risk of occurrence of cardiac arrests, But we have not found difference in overall hospital mortality rate.

Keywords: emergency response team, ERT, cardiac arrest, emergency medicine

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3424 Insecticidal Effects of the Wettable Powder Formulations of Plant Extracts on Cotton Bollworm, Helicoverpa armigera (Lep. Noctuidae)

Authors: Reza Sadeghi, Maryam Nazarahari

Abstract:

Due to the numerous side effects of chemical pesticides, in this research, to provide the practical use of herbal compounds, the extracts of the two plants of thyme and eucalyptus were extracted by using water, 70% ethanol, and n-hexane solvents via percolation method and then formulated as wettable powders. The mortality rates of cotton bollworm (Helicoverpa armigera) were investigated under different concentrations of ethanolic, hexanic, and aqueous extracts of thyme and eucalyptus and their formulations in laboratory conditions. The results showed that the used concentrations, types of solvents, and sorts of formulations significantly affected the mortality rates of cotton bollworm larvae during the exposure period of 24 h.

Keywords: cotton bollworm, eucalyptus, formulation, thyme, toxicity

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3423 Understanding the Mechanisms of Salmonella typhimurium Resistance to Cannabidiol

Authors: Iddrisu Ibrahim, Joseph Atia Ayariga, Junhuan Xu, Daniel Abugri, Boakai Robertson, Olufemi S. Ajayi

Abstract:

The emergence of multidrug resistance poses a huge risk to public health globally. Yet these recalcitrant pathogens continue to rise in incidence rate, with resistance rates significantly outpacing the speed of antibiotic development. This, therefore, presents an aura of related health issues such as untreatable nosocomial infections arising from organ transplants and surgeries, as well as community-acquired infections that are related to people with compromised immunity, e.g., diabetic and HIV patients, etc. There is a global effort to fight multidrug-resistant pathogens spearheaded by the World Health Organization, thus calling for research into novel antimicrobial agents to fight multiple drug resistance. Previously, our laboratory demonstrated that Cannabidiol (CBD) was an effective antimicrobial against Salmonella typhimurium (S. typhimurium). However, we observed resistance development over time. To understand the mechanisms S. typhimurium uses to develop resistance to Cannabidiol (CBD), we studied the abundance of bacteria lipopolysaccharide (LPS) and membrane sterols of both susceptible and resistant S. typhimurium. Using real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR), we also analyzed the expression of selected genes known for aiding resistance development in S. typhimurium. We discovered that there was a significantly higher expression of blaTEM, fimA, fimZ, and integrons in the CBD-resistant bacteria, and these were also accompanied by a shift in abundance in cell surface molecules such as lipopolysaccharide (LPS) and sterols.

Keywords: antimicrobials, resistance, cannabidiol, gram-negative bacteria, integrons, blaTEM, Fim, LPS, ergosterols

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3422 Characteristics of Acute Poisoning in Emergency Departments: Multicenter Study in Korea

Authors: Hyuk-Hoon Kim, Young Gi Min

Abstract:

Background: Acute poisoning is the common cause of morbidity and mortality. Characteristics of acute poisoning differ between countries. While other countries operate the database system for poisoning, Korea has not collected the database for acute poisoning. Distribution of incidence of acute poisoning depending on the types of materials have also not studied in Korea. Our aims are to evaluate the etiologic and demographic characteristics of acute poisoning cases and to obtain up-to-date information on acute poisonings. Method: We retrospectively recorded cases of acute poisoning from eight emergency departments of second level or university hospitals from different cities in Gyeonggi province in Korea from April 2006 and March 2015. The distributions of incidence of acute poisoning depending on the types of materials are mapped by geographic information system. Result: A total of 3,449 poisoned cases were analyzed. Mean estimated age of patients was 39.56 ± 22.40 years. Mean male to female ratio of patients was 1:1.4. Mean proportion of intentional poisoning was 57.9%. Common materials are benzodiazepine (16.6%), carbon monoxide (10.5%), pesticide (8.1%) and zolpidem (7.1%) Common route of exposure is ingestion (79.5%) and followed by inhalation (16.5%). Common treatment methods are gastric lavage (20%) and activated charcoal (30%). Most cases had uneventful recovery; 61.4% were treated as outpatients and 0.1% of the poisoning resulted in death in ER. Conclusion: Even though the cases enrolled in our study is not the overall cases of acute poisoning in Korea, our study could be the basis of countermeasures for analysis and prevention of acute poisoning in Korea.

Keywords: acute poisoning, emergency department, epidemiology, Korea

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3421 Long-Term Outcome of Emergency Response Team System in In-Hospital Cardiac Arrest

Authors: Jirapat Suriyachaisawat, Ekkit Surakarn

Abstract:

Introduction: To improve early detection and mortality rate of in-hospital cardiac arrest, Emergency Response Team (ERT) system was planned and implemented since June 2009 to detect pre-arrest conditons and for any concerns. The ERT consisted of on duty physicians and nurses from emergency department. ERT calling criteria consisted of acute change of HR < 40 or > 130 beats per minute, systolic blood pressure < 90 mmHg, respiratory rate <8 or >28 breaths per minute, O2 saturation <90%, acute change in conscious state, acute chest pain or worry about the patients. From the data on ERT system implementation in our hospital in early phase (during June 2009-2011), there was no statistic significance in difference in in-hospital cardiac arrest incidence and overall hospital mortality rate. Since the introduction of the ERT service in our hospital, we have conducted continuous educational campaign to improve awareness in an attempt to increase use of the service. Methods: To investigate outcome of ERT system in in-hospital cardiac arrest and overall hospital mortality rate, we conducted a prospective, controlled before-and after examination of the long term effect of a ERT system on the incidence of cardiac arrest. We performed chi-square analysis to find statistic significance. Results: Of a total 623 ERT cases from June 2009 until December 2012, there were 72 calls in 2009, 196 calls in 2010, 139 calls in 2011 and 245 calls in 2012. The number of ERT calls per 1000 admissions in year 2009-10 was 7.69; 5.61 in 2011 and 9.38 in 2013. The number of code blue calls per 1000 admissions decreased significantly from 2.28 to 0.99 per 1000 admissions (P value < 0.001). The incidence of cardiac arrest decreased progressively from 1.19 to 0.34 per 1000 admissions and significant in difference in year 2012 (P value < 0.001 ). The overall hospital mortality rate decreased by 8 % from 15.43 to 14.43 per 1000 admissions (P value 0.095). Conclusions: ERT system implementation was associated with progressive reduction in cardiac arrests over three year period, especially statistic significant in difference in 4th year after implementation. We also found an inverse association between number of ERT use and the risk of occurrence of cardiac arrests, but we have not found difference in overall hospital mortality rate.

Keywords: cardiac arrest, outcome, in-hospital, ERT

Procedia PDF Downloads 175
3420 Effects of Soil Organic Amendment Types and Rates on Growth and Yield of Amaranthus cruentus, Southern Guinea Savannah of Nigeria

Authors: S. Yussuf Abdulmaliq

Abstract:

Experiment was conducted for two years (2013 and 2014) at Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida University, Lapai, Teaching and Research Farm to study the effects of soil organic amendment types and rates on soil chemical fertility improvement, growth and yield of Amarathus cruentus in the southern guinea savannah, lapai, Niger state, Nigeria. Soil and manure samples were collected and analysed for physical and chemical components. The experiments were laid out in 3 x 4 factorial in a randomized complete block design (RCBD). Consisting of three (3) levels of soil amendment types (Poultry manure, goat manure and cowdung) and four (4) levels of amendment rates (0, 6, 12 and 18 t ha-1). Data collected include plant height/plant (cm), number of leaves/plant, leaf area/ plant (cm2) at 2, 4, 6 and 8WAT, fresh vegetable yield/plant, fresh vegetable yield/plot and fresh vegetable yield in tons ha-1. The result obtained showed that, Amaranthus cruentus height, number of leaves and leaf area were not significantly affected by the type of organic amendment and rates at 2WAT in 2013 and 2014 cropping seasons. However, at 4, 6 and 8 WAT, significant differences were observed among the types of amendment and their rates. Application of poultry manure as soil amendment supported taller, large number of leaves and wider leaf area, and higher marketable vegetable yield in 2013 and 2014 cropping seasons (Pα 0.05) which was closely followed by goat manure in the two (2) cropping seasons. In addition, the application of 18 t ha-1 was superior to 12, 6 and the control by producing tallest amaranthus plants, higher number of leaves, wider leaf area and higher marketable vegetable yield in 2013 and 2014 cropping seasons (Pα 0.05). In conclusion, the use of 18 t ha-1poultry manure is therefore recommended as soil amendment for Amaranthus cruentus in southern guinea savannah of Nigeria.

Keywords: Amaranthus cruentus, cowdung, goat manure, poultry manure, soil amendment

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3419 Parametric Modeling for Survival Data with Competing Risks Using the Generalized Gompertz Distribution

Authors: Noora Al-Shanfari, M. Mazharul Islam

Abstract:

The cumulative incidence function (CIF) is a fundamental approach for analyzing survival data in the presence of competing risks, which estimates the marginal probability for each competing event. Parametric modeling of CIF has the advantage of fitting various shapes of CIF and estimates the impact of covariates with maximum efficiency. To calculate the total CIF's covariate influence using a parametric model., it is essential to parametrize the baseline of the CIF. As the CIF is an improper function by nature, it is necessary to utilize an improper distribution when applying parametric models. The Gompertz distribution, which is an improper distribution, is limited in its applicability as it only accounts for monotone hazard shapes. The generalized Gompertz distribution, however, can adapt to a wider range of hazard shapes, including unimodal, bathtub, and monotonic increasing or decreasing hazard shapes. In this paper, the generalized Gompertz distribution is used to parametrize the baseline of the CIF, and the parameters of the proposed model are estimated using the maximum likelihood approach. The proposed model is compared with the existing Gompertz model using the Akaike information criterion. Appropriate statistical test procedures and model-fitting criteria will be used to test the adequacy of the model. Both models are applied to the ‘colon’ dataset, which is available in the “biostat3” package in R.

Keywords: competing risks, cumulative incidence function, improper distribution, parametric modeling, survival analysis

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3418 Application of a Geomechanical Model to Justify the Exploitation of Bazhenov-Abalak Formation, Western Siberia

Authors: Yan Yusupov, Aleksandra Soldatova, Yaroslav Zaglyadin

Abstract:

The object of this work is Bazhenov-Abalak unconventional formation (BAUF) of Western Siberia. On the base of the Geomechanical model (GMM), a methodology was developed for sweet spot intervals and zones for drilling horizontal wells with hydraulic fracturing. Based on mechanical rock typification, eight mechanical rock types (MRT) have been identified. Sweet spot intervals are represented by siliceous-carbonate (2), siliceous (5) and carbonate (8) MRT that have the greatest brittleness index (BRIT). A correlation has been established between the thickness of brittle intervals and the initial well production rates, which makes it possible to identify sweet spot zones for drilling horizontal wells with hydraulic fracturing. Brittle and ductile intervals are separated by a BRIT cut-off of 0.4 since wells located at points with BRIT < 0.4 have insignificant rates (less than 2 m³/day). Wells with an average BRIT in BAUF of more than 0.4 reach industrial production rates. The next application of GMM is associated with the instability of the overburdened clay formation above the top of the BAUF. According to the wellbore stability analysis, the recommended mud weight for this formation must be not less than 1.53–1.55 g/cc. The optimal direction for horizontal wells corresponds to the azimuth of Shmin equal to 70-80°.

Keywords: unconventional reservoirs, geomechanics, sweet spot zones, borehole stability

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3417 Efficiency of Microbial Metabolites on Quality Milk Production in Nili Ravi Breed of Buffalos

Authors: Sajjad Ur Rahman, Muhammad Tahir, Mukarram Bashir, Jawad, Aoun Muhammad, Muhammad Zohaib, Hannan Khan, Seemal Javaid, Mariam Azam

Abstract:

The efficiency of natural metabolites obtained from partially fermented soya hulls and wheat bran using Saccharomyces cerevisiae (DL-22 S/N) ensures a potential impact on the total milk yield and quality of milk production. On attaining a moderate number of Saccharomyces cerevisiae cells around 1×10⁹ CFU/ml, the concentrate was further elevated under in-vivo conditions to study the quality of milk production in lactating buffalo. Ten lactating buffalos of the Nili Ravi breed having the same physical factors were given 12 gm of microbial metabolites daily, along with the palleted feed having 22 % proteins. Another group of 10 lactating animals with the same characteristics was maintained without metabolites. The body score, overall health, incidence of mastitis, milk fat, milk proteins, ash and solid not fat (SNF) were elevated on a weekly basis up to thirty days of trial. It was recorded that the average total increase in quality milk production was 0.9 liter/h/d, whereas SNF in the milk was enhanced to 0.71, and fats were decreased to 0.09 %. Moreover, during all periods of the trial, the overall non-specific immunity of buffalo was increased, as indicated by less than 0.2 % of mastitis incidence compared to 1.8% in the untreated buffalos.

Keywords: natural metabolites, quality milk, milk yield, microorganisms, fermentation, nonspecific immunity, better performing animals

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3416 Probing Environmental Sustainability via Brownfield Remediation: A Framework to Manage Brownfields in Ethiopia Lesson to Africa

Authors: Mikiale Gebreslase Gebremariam, Chai Huaqi, Tesfay Gebretsdkan Gebremichael, Dawit Nega Bekele

Abstract:

In recent years, brownfield redevelopment projects (BRPs) have contributed to the overarching paradigm of the United Nations 2030 agendas. In the present circumstance, most developed nations adopted BRPs, an efficacious urban policy tool. However, in developing and some advanced countries, BRPs are lacking due to limitations of awareness, policy tools, and financial capability for cleaning up brownfield sites. For example, the growth and development of Ethiopian cities were achieved at the cost of poor urban planning, including no community consultations and excessive urbanization for future growth. The demand for land resources is more and more urgent as the result of an intermigration to major cities and towns for socio-economic reasons and population growth. In the past, the development mode of spreading major cities has made horizontal urbanizations stretching outwards. Expansion in search of more land resources, while the outer cities are growing, the inner cities are polluted by environmental pollution. It is noteworthy that the rapid development of cities has not brought about an increase in people's happiness index. Thus, the proposed management framework for managing brownfields in Ethiopia as a lesson to the developing nation facing similar challenges and growth will add immense value in solving the problems and give insights into brownfield land utilization. Under the umbrella of the grey incidence decision-making model and with the consideration of multiple stakeholders and tight environmental and economic constraints, the proposed management framework integrates different criteria from economic, social, environmental, technical, and risk aspects into the grey incidence decision-making model and gives useful guidance to manage brownfields in Ethiopia. Furthermore, it will contribute to the future development of the social economy and the missions of the 2030 UN sustainable development goals.

Keywords: Brownfields, environmental sustainability, Ethiopia, grey-incidence decision-making, sustainable urban development

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3415 Whether Buffer Zone Community Forests’ Benefits Are Distributed Fairly to Low-Income Users: Reflection From the Buffer Zone Community Forests in Bardia National Park, Nepal

Authors: Keshav Raj Acharya, Thakur Silwal, Neelam C. Poudyal

Abstract:

Buffer zones, the peripheral areas around the national parks and wildlife reserves, are available for the purpose of benefitting the local inhabitants by providing forest products for subsistence needs of basic forest products outside the protected areas. The forest area within the buffer zone has been managed as a buffer zone community forest (BZCF) for the last 25 years after the approval of the buffer zone management regulation 1996. With a case study of select BZCF in Bardia National Park, this study aims to analyze whether the benefit provided by BZCF is equally available to poor users among other socioeconomic classes of the users. The findings are based on the analysis of cross-sectional data involving household surveys (n=305) and key informants’ interviews (n=10) as well as office records available at different 5 buffer zone community forest user groups offices. Results indicate that despite the provisions of subsidized rates for poor; poor households were more deprived due to higher forest products price particularly, the timber price in buffer zone. Evidence also indicate that due to the increased forest coverage, the incidence of wildlife damage has also increased and impacted the poor more due to lack of land ownership as well as limited alternatives. Clear community forest management guidelines with equitable benefit sharing and compensatory mechanisms to the users of poor socioeconomic class have been identified as a solution to increase the benefit to poor users in BZCFUGs.

Keywords: crop depredation, forest products, users, wellbeing ranking

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3414 A Bayesian Hierarchical Poisson Model with an Underlying Cluster Structure for the Analysis of Measles in Colombia

Authors: Ana Corberan-Vallet, Karen C. Florez, Ingrid C. Marino, Jose D. Bermudez

Abstract:

In 2016, the Region of the Americas was declared free of measles, a viral disease that can cause severe health problems. However, since 2017, measles has reemerged in Venezuela and has subsequently reached neighboring countries. In 2018, twelve American countries reported confirmed cases of measles. Governmental and health authorities in Colombia, a country that shares the longest land boundary with Venezuela, are aware of the need for a strong response to restrict the expanse of the epidemic. In this work, we apply a Bayesian hierarchical Poisson model with an underlying cluster structure to describe disease incidence in Colombia. Concretely, the proposed methodology provides relative risk estimates at the department level and identifies clusters of disease, which facilitates the implementation of targeted public health interventions. Socio-demographic factors, such as the percentage of migrants, gross domestic product, and entry routes, are included in the model to better describe the incidence of disease. Since the model does not impose any spatial correlation at any level of the model hierarchy, it avoids the spatial confounding problem and provides a suitable framework to estimate the fixed-effect coefficients associated with spatially-structured covariates.

Keywords: Bayesian analysis, cluster identification, disease mapping, risk estimation

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3413 Predicting the Lifetime of Weathered Polyolefins by Relating Mechanics to Microstructure

Authors: Marta Chiapasco, Alexandra Porter, Finn Giuliani

Abstract:

Designing polymers with a specific microstructure can affect how the polymer degrades once released in the environment. Not only the amount but also the distribution of different phases determines a polymers’ degradability. The following research investigates the use of a combination of spectroscopy analysis and thermal analysis to study changes of polymers’ amorphous and crystalline phases during degradation, comparing different microstructures of polypropylene and polyethylene. The use of nanoindentation helps study how degradation proceeds across a material by looking at changes in phases, while bulk tensile test describes when the material fails. The first results demonstrate that different microstructures have different degrading rates, with homopolymer having a linear and faster degradation compared to copolymers. The goal is to create materials that degrade at faster rates without releasing microplastics into the environment.

Keywords: degradation, microstructure, nanoindentation, Raman spectroscopy

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3412 Effects of Reversible Watermarking on Iris Recognition Performance

Authors: Andrew Lock, Alastair Allen

Abstract:

Fragile watermarking has been proposed as a means of adding additional security or functionality to biometric systems, particularly for authentication and tamper detection. In this paper we describe an experimental study on the effect of watermarking iris images with a particular class of fragile algorithm, reversible algorithms, and the ability to correctly perform iris recognition. We investigate two scenarios, matching watermarked images to unmodified images, and matching watermarked images to watermarked images. We show that different watermarking schemes give very different results for a given capacity, highlighting the importance of investigation. At high embedding rates most algorithms cause significant reduction in recognition performance. However, in many cases, for low embedding rates, recognition accuracy is improved by the watermarking process.

Keywords: biometrics, iris recognition, reversible watermarking, vision engineering

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3411 Wireless Optic Last Mile Multi-Gbit/s Communication System

Authors: Manea Viorel, Puscoci Sorin, Stoichescu Dan Alexandru

Abstract:

Free Space Optics (FSO) is an optical telecommunication system that uses laser beam to transmit data at high bit rates via terrestrial atmosphere. This article describes a method to obtain higher bit rates, under unfavorable weather conditions using multiple optical beams, which carry information with low optical power. Optical link quality assessment is given by the attenuation on different weather conditions. The goal of this paper is to compare two transmission techniques: mono and multi beam, both affected by atmospheric attenuation, using OOK and L-PPM modulation. Link availability is evaluated using eye-diagram that provides information about the overall bit error rate of the system.

Keywords: free space optics, wireless optic, laser communication, spatial diversity

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3410 Analysis of Secondary Stage Creep in Thick-Walled Composite Cylinders Subjected to Rotary Inertia

Authors: Tejeet Singh, Virat Khanna

Abstract:

Composite materials have drawn considerable attention of engineers due to their light weight and application at high thermo-mechanical loads. With regard to the prediction of the life of high temperature structural components like rotating cylinders and the evaluation of their deterioration with time, it is essential to have a full knowledge of creep characteristics of these materials. Therefore, in the present study the secondary stage creep stresses and strain rates are estimated in thick-walled composite cylinders subjected to rotary inertia at different angular speeds. The composite cylinder is composed of aluminum matrix (Al) and reinforced with silicon carbide (SiC) particles which are uniformly mixed. The creep response of the material of the cylinder is described by threshold stress based creep law. The study indicates that with the increase in angular speed, the radial, tangential, axial and effective stress increases to a significant value. However, the radial stress remains zero at inner radius and outer radius due to imposed boundary conditions of zero pressure. Further, the stresses are tensile in nature throughout the entire radius of composite cylinder. The strain rates are also influenced in the same manner as that of creep stresses. The creep rates will increase significantly with the increase of centrifugal force on account of rotation.

Keywords: composite, creep, rotating cylinder, angular speed

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3409 Product Quality and Profitability of Sea Bream Fish Farms in Greece

Authors: C. Nathanailides, S. Anastasiou, P. Logothetis, G. Kanlis

Abstract:

Production parameters of gilt head sea bream fish farm such as feeding regimes, mortalities, fish densities were used to calculate the economic efficiency of six different aquaculture sites from West Greece. Samples of farmed sea bream were collected and lipid content, microbial load and filleting yield of the samples were used as quality criteria. The results indicate that Lipid content, filleting yield and microbial load of fish originating from different fish farms varied significantly with improved quality exhibited in fish farms which exhibited improved Feed conversion rates and lower mortalities. Changes in feeding management practices such as feed quality and feeding regimes have a significant impact on the financial performance of sea bass farms. Fish farms which exhibited improved feeding conversion rates also exhibited increased profitability. Improvements in the FCR explained about 13.4 % of the difference in profitability of the different aquaculture sites. Lower mortality and higher growth rates were also exhibited by the fish farms which exhibited improved FCR. It is concluded that best feeding management practices resulted in improved product quality and profitability.

Keywords: aquaculture economics, gilt head sea, production fish, feeding management

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3408 Induced Systemic Resistance in Tomato Plants against Fusarium Wilt Disease Using Biotic Inducers

Authors: Mostafa A. Amer, I. A. El-Samra, I. I. Abou-ElSeoud, S. M. El-Abd, N. K. Shawertamimi

Abstract:

Tomato Fusarium wilt disease caused by Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. Lycopercisi (FOL) is considered one of the most destructive diseases in Egypt. Effect of some biotic inducers such as Bacillus megaterium var. phosphaticum, Glomus intraradices and Glomus macrocarpum at seven different mixed treatments, was tested for their ability to induce resistance in tomato plants against the disease. According to pathogenicity tests, all the tested isolates of FOL showed wilt symptoms on both of the tested cultivars; however, they considerably varied in percentages of disease incidence (DI) and disease severity (DS). Castle Rock was more susceptible than Peto 86, which was relatively resistant. Pretreatment of both cultivars, under greenhouse conditions, with the tested biotic inducers alone or in combination with each other's, significantly increased the induction of chitinase, β-1,3-glucanase, peroxidase, and polyphenoloxidase and reduced disease incidence and severity, compared with untreated noninoculated (C1) and untreated inoculated (C2) controls. Application of a combination of BMP, with GI and GM was the most effective in increasing the induction rated of the tested enzymes, compared with the other treatments. Induction of enzymes in most of the tested bioinducers treatments gradually increased, attaining maximum values after 48 or/and 72 hrs after challenging with FOL, then gradually declined. GI was the least effective bioinducer.

Keywords: F. oxysporum f. sp. lycopersici, defense enzymes, induced systemic resistance, ISR, B. megaterium var. phosphaticum, G. macrocarpum, G. intraradices

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3407 Epidemiological Data of Schistosoma haematobium Bilharzia in Rural and Urban Localities in the Republic of Congo

Authors: Jean Akiana, Digne Merveille Nganga Bouanga, Nardiouf Sjelin Nsana, Wilfrid Sapromet Ngoubili, Chyvanelle Ndous Akiridzo, Vishnou Reize Ampiri, Henri-Joseph Parra, Florence Fenollar, Didier Raoult, Oleg Mediannikov, Cheikh Sadhibou Sokhna

Abstract:

Schistosoma haematobium schistosomiasis is an endemic disease in which the level of human exposure, incidence, and fatality attributed to it remains, unfortunately, high worldwide. The erection of hydroelectric infrastructures constitute a major factor in the emergence of this disease. In the context of the Republic of the Congo, which considers industrialization and modernization as two essential pillars of development, building the hydroelectric dams of Liouesso (19 Mw) and the feasibility studies of the dams of Chollet (600MW) in the Sangha, of Sounda (1000MW) in Kouilou and Kouembali (150MW) on Lefini is necessary to increase the country's energy capacities. Likewise, the urbanization of former endemic localities should take into account the maintenance of contamination points. However, health impact studies on schistosomiasis epidemiology in general and urinary bilharzia, in particular, have never been carried out in these areas, neither before nor after the erection of those dams. Participants benefited from an investigative questionnaire, urinalysis both by dipstick and urine filtrate examined under a microscope. Assessment of the genetic diversity of schistosoma species populations was considered as well as PCR analysis to confirm the test strip and microscopy tests. 405 participants were registered in five localities. The sampling was made up of a balanced population in terms of male/female ratio, which is around 1. The prevalence rate was 45% (55/123) in Nkayi, 10.40% (11/106) in Loudima, 1 case in Mbomo (West Cuvette), which would probably be imported, zero in Liouesso and Kabo. The highest oviuria (number of eggs per volume of urine) is 150 S. haematobium eggs/10ml in Nkayi, apart from the case of imported Mbomo, imported from Gabon, which has 160 S. haematobium eggs/10ml. The lowest oviuria was 2 S. haematobium eggs/10ml. Prevalence rates are still high in semi-urban areas (Nkayi). As praziquantel treatments are available and effective, it is important to step up mass treatment campaigns in high risk areas already largely initiated by the National Schistosomiasis Control Program. Prevalence rates are still high in semi-urban areas (Nkayi). As praziquantel treatments are available and effective, it is important to step up mass treatment campaigns in high risk areas already largely initiated by the National Schistosomiasis Control Program.

Keywords: Bilharzia, Schistosoma haematobium, oviuria, urbanization, Congo

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3406 Ventilator Associated Pneumonia in a Medical Intensive Care Unit, Incidence and Risk Factors: A Case Control Study

Authors: Ammar Asma, Bouafia Nabiha, Ben Cheikh Asma, Ezzi Olfa, Mahjoub Mohamed, Sma Nesrine, Chouchène Imed, Boussarsar Hamadi, Njah Mansour

Abstract:

Background: Ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) is currently recognized as one of the most relevant causes of morbidity and mortality among intensive care unit (ICU) patients worldwide. Identifying modifiable risk factors for VAP could be helpful for future controlled interventional studies aiming at improving prevention of VAP. The purposes of this study were to determine the incidence and risk factors for VAP in in a Tunisian medical ICU. Materials / Methods: A retrospective case-control study design based on the prospective database collected over a 14-month period from September 15th, 2015 through November 15th, 2016 in an 8-bed medical ICU. Patients under ventilation for over 48 h were included. The number of cases was estimated by Epi-info Software with the power of statistical test equal to 90 %. Each case patient was successfully matched to two controls according to the length of mechanical ventilation (MV) before VAP for cases and the total length of MV in controls. VAP in the ICU was defined according to American Thoracic Society; Infectious Diseases Society of America guidelines. Early onset or late-onset VAP were defined whether the infectious process occurred within or after 96 h of ICU admission. Patients’ risk factors, causes of admission, comorbidities and respiratory specimens collected were reviewed. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to determine variables associated with VAP with a p-value < 0.05. Results: During the period study, a total of 169 patients under mechanical ventilation were considered, 34 patients (20.11%) developed at least one episode of VAP in the ICU. The incidence rate for VAP was 14.88/1000 ventilation days. Among these cases, 9 (26.5 %) were early-onset VAP and 25 (73.5 %) were late-onset VAP. It was a certain diagnosis in 66.7% of cases. Tracheal aspiration was positive in 80% of cases. Multi-drug resistant Acinerobacter baumanii was the most common species detected in cases; 67.64% (n=23). The rate of mortality out of cases was 88.23% (n= 30). In univariate analysis, the patients with VAP were statistically more likely to suffer from cardiovascular diseases (p=0.035) and prolonged duration of sedation (p=0.009) and tracheostomy (p=0.001), they also had a higher number of re-intubation (p=0.017) and a longer total time of intubation (p=0.012). Multivariate analysis showed that cardiovascular diseases (OR= 4.44; 95% IC= [1.3 - 14]; p=0.016), tracheostomy (OR= 4.2; 95% IC= [1.16 -15.12]; p= 0.028) and prolonged duration of sedation (OR=1.21; 95% IC= [1.07, 1.36]; p=0.002) were independent risk factors for the development of VAP. Conclusion: VAP constitutes a therapeutic challenge in an ICU setting, therefore; strategies that effectively prevent VAP are needed. An infection control-training program intended to all professional heath care in this unit insisting on bundles and elaboration of procedures are planned to reduce effectively incidence rate of VAP.

Keywords: case control study, intensive care unit, risk factors, ventilator associated pneumonia

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3405 Investigating the Behavior of Individual Business Taxpayers: Behavioral Economics Approach

Authors: Yeganeh Mousavi Jahromi, Sahar Dehghan

Abstract:

In Direct Tax Act, penalties and incentives are two strategies for realization of the expected tax revenues. In this study, the interaction between individual businesses' taxpayers' behaviors and National Tax Administration is investigated by using prospect theory which is based on behavioral economics approach. For this purpose, the structure of the tax compliance of the mentioned taxpayers is evaluated via the changes in penalty and incentive rates. In this way, a special questionnaire regarding the items of individual businesses sector of Direct Tax Act was designed for tax compliance evaluation, and the results were obtained using Bayesian Hierarchical method. The results indicate that the investigated individual business taxpayers, at all income levels, were more sensitive toward incentive rates so that this result can be useful for tax policymakers.

Keywords: behavioral economics, prospect theory, tax compliance, penalties, incentives

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3404 Linear Stability Analysis of a Regularized Two-Fluid Model for Unstable Gas-Liquid Flows in Long Hilly Terrain Pipelines

Authors: David Alejandro Lazo-Vasquez, Jorge Luis Balino

Abstract:

In the petroleum industry, multiphase flow occurs when oil, gas, and water are transported in the same pipe through large pipeline systems. The flow can take different patterns depending on parameters like fluid velocities, pipe diameter, pipe inclination, and fluid properties. Mainly, intermittent flow is produced by the natural propagation of short and long waves, according to the Kelvin-Helmholtz Stability Theory. To model stratified flow and the onset of intermittent flow, it is crucial to have knowledge of short and long waves behavior. The two-fluid model, frequently employed for characterizing multiphase systems, becomes ill-posed for high liquid and gas velocities and large inclination angles, for short waves can develop infinite growth rates. We are interested in focusing attention on long-wave instability, which leads to the production of roll waves that may grow and result in the transition from stratified flow to intermittent flow. In this study, global and local linear stability analyses for dynamic and kinematic stability criteria predict the regions of stability of the flow for different pipe inclinations and fluid velocities in regularized and non-regularized systems, concurrently. It was possible to distinguish when: wave growth rates are absolutely bounded (stable stratified smooth flow), waves have finite growth rates (unstable stratified wavy flow), and when the equation system becomes elliptic and hyperbolization is needed. In order to bound short wave growth rates and regularize the equation system, we incorporated some lower and higher-order terms like interfacial drag and surface tension, respectively.

Keywords: linear stability analysis, multiphase flow, onset of slugging, two-fluid model regularization

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