Search results for: histogram projection

Authors: Tshilidzi C. Manyanya, Nthaduleni S. Nethengwe, Edmore Kori

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The UNFCCC, FAO, GCF, IPCC and other global structures advocate for agro-ecology do address food security and sovereignty. However, most of the expected outcomes concerning agro-ecological were not empirically tested for universal application. Agro-ecology is theorised to increase crop health over ago-ecological farms and decrease over conventional farms. Increased crop health means increased carbon sequestration and thus less CO2 in the atmosphere. This is in line with the view that global warming is anthropogenically enhanced through GHG emissions. Agro-ecology mainly affects crop health, soil carbon content and yield on the cultivated land. Economic sustainability is directly related to yield capacity, which is theorized to increase by 3-10% in a space of 3 - 10 years as a result of agro-ecological implementation. This study aimed to empirically assess the practicality and validity of these assumptions. The study utilized mainly GIS and RS techniques to assess the effectiveness of agro-ecology in crop health improvement from satellite images. The assessment involved a longitudinal study (2013 – 2015) assessing the changes that occur after a farm retrofits from conventional agriculture to agro-ecology. The assumptions guided the objectives of the study. For each objective, an agro-ecological farm was compared with a conventional farm in the same climatic conditional occupying the same general location. Crop health was assessed using satellite images analysed through ArcGIS and Erdas. This entailed the production of NDVI and Re-classified outputs of the farm area. The NDVI ranges of the entire period of study were thus compared in a stacked histogram for each farm to assess for trends. Yield capacity was calculated based on the production records acquired from the farmers and plotted in a stacked bar graph as percentages of a total for each farm. The results of the study showed decreasing crop health trends over 80% of the conventional farms and an increase over 80% of the organic farms. Yield capacity showed similar patterns to those of crop health. The study thus showed that agro-ecology is an effective strategy for crop-health improvement and yield increase.

Keywords: agro-ecosystem, conventional farm, dialectical, sustainability

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Authors: Oluwaseun K. Oyebode, Josiah A. Adeyemo

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Hydrological modelling plays a crucial role in the planning and management of water resources, most especially in water stressed regions where the need to effectively manage the available water resources is of critical importance. However, due to the complex, nonlinear and dynamic behaviour of hydro-climatic interactions, achieving reliable modelling of water resource systems and accurate projection of hydrological parameters are extremely challenging. Although a significant number of modelling techniques (process-based and data-driven) have been developed and adopted in that regard, the field of hydrological modelling is still considered as one that has sluggishly progressed over the past decades. This is majorly as a result of the identification of some degree of uncertainty in the methodologies and results of techniques adopted. In recent times, evolutionary computation (EC) techniques have been developed and introduced in response to the search for efficient and reliable means of providing accurate solutions to hydrological related problems. This paper presents a comprehensive review of the underlying principles, methodological needs and applications of a promising evolutionary computation modelling technique – genetic programming (GP). It examines the specific characteristics of the technique which makes it suitable to solving hydrological modelling problems. It discusses the opportunities inherent in the application of GP in water related-studies such as rainfall estimation, rainfall-runoff modelling, streamflow forecasting, sediment transport modelling, water quality modelling and groundwater modelling among others. Furthermore, the means by which such opportunities could be harnessed in the near future are discussed. In all, a case for total embracement of GP and its variants in hydrological modelling studies is made so as to put in place strategies that would translate into achieving meaningful progress as it relates to modelling of water resource systems, and also positively influence decision-making by relevant stakeholders.

Keywords: computational modelling, evolutionary algorithms, genetic programming, hydrological modelling

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Authors: Osvaldo N. Oliveira Jr.

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The control of molecular architecture inherent in some experimental methods to produce nanostructured films has had great impact on devices of various types, including sensors and biosensors. The self-assembly monolayers (SAMs) and the electrostatic layer-by-layer (LbL) techniques, for example, are now routinely used to produce tailored architectures for biosensing where biomolecules are immobilized with long-lasting preserved activity. Enzymes, antigens, antibodies, peptides and many other molecules serve as the molecular recognition elements for detecting an equally wide variety of analytes. The principles of detection are also varied, including electrochemical methods, fluorescence spectroscopy and impedance spectroscopy. In this presentation an overview will be provided of biosensors made with nanostructured films to detect antibodies associated with tropical diseases and HIV, in addition to detection of analytes of medical interest such as cholesterol and triglycerides. Because large amounts of data are generated in the biosensing experiments, use has been made of computational and statistical methods to optimize performance. Multidimensional projection techniques such as Sammon´s mapping have been shown more efficient than traditional multivariate statistical analysis in identifying small concentrations of anti-HIV antibodies and for distinguishing between blood serum samples of animals infected with two tropical diseases, namely Chagas´ disease and Leishmaniasis. Optimization of biosensing may include a combination of another information visualization method, the Parallel Coordinate technique, with artificial intelligence methods in order to identify the most suitable frequencies for reaching higher sensitivity using impedance spectroscopy. Also discussed will be the possible convergence of technologies, through which machine learning and other computational methods may be used to treat data from biosensors within an expert system for clinical diagnosis.

Keywords: clinical diagnosis, information visualization, nanostructured films, layer-by-layer technique

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Authors: Dmitry K. Shaytan, Georgy D. Laptev

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In our research we aimed to test a managerial approach for the fuzzy front end (FFE) of innovation by creating controlled experiment/ business case in a breakthrough innovation development. The experiment was in the sport industry and covered all aspects of the customer discovery stage from ideation to prototyping followed by patent application. In the paper we describe and analyze mile stones, tasks, management challenges, decisions made to create the break through innovation, evaluate overall managerial efficiency that was at the considered FFE stage. We set managerial outcome of the FFE stage as a valid product concept in hand. In our paper we introduce hypothetical construct “Q-factor” that helps us in the experiment to distinguish quality of FFE outcomes. The experiment simulated for entrepreneur the FFE of innovation and put on his shoulders responsibility for the outcome of valid product concept. While developing managerial approach to reach the outcome there was a decision to look on product concept from the cognitive psychology and cognitive science point of view. This view helped us to develop the profile of a person whose projection (mental representation) of a new product could optimize for a manager or entrepreneur FFE activities. In the experiment this profile was tested to develop breakthrough innovation for swimmers. Following the managerial approach the product concept was created to help swimmers to feel/sense water. The working prototype was developed to estimate the product concept validity and value added effect for customers. Based on feedback from coachers and swimmers there were strong positive effect that gave high value for customers, and for the experiment – the valid product concept being developed by proposed managerial approach for the FFE. In conclusions there is a suggestion of managerial approach that was derived from experiment.

Keywords: concept development, concept testing, customer discovery, entrepreneurship, entrepreneurial management, idea generation, idea screening, startup management

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Authors: Gabriel Legorreta Paulin, Marcus I. Bursik, Lilia Arana Salinas, Fernando Aceves Quesada

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In volcanic environments, landslides and debris flows occur continually along stream systems of large stratovolcanoes. This is the case on Pico de Orizaba volcano, the highest mountain in Mexico. The volcano has a great potential to impact and damage human settlements and economic activities by landslides. People living along the lower valleys of Pico de Orizaba volcano are in continuous hazard by the coalescence of upstream landslide sediments that increased the destructive power of debris flows. These debris flows not only produce floods, but also cause the loss of lives and property. Although the importance of assessing such process, there is few landslide inventory maps and landslide susceptibility assessment. As a result in México, no landslide susceptibility models assessment has been conducted to evaluate advantage and disadvantage of models. In this study, a comprehensive study of landslide susceptibility models assessment using GIS technology is carried out on the SE flank of Pico de Orizaba volcano. A detailed multi-temporal landslide inventory map in the watershed is used as framework for the quantitative comparison of two landslide susceptibility maps. The maps are created based on 1) the Stability Index MAPping (SINMAP) model by using default geotechnical parameters and 2) by using findings of volcanic soils geotechnical proprieties obtained in the field. SINMAP combines the factor of safety derived from the infinite slope stability model with the theory of a hydrologic model to produce the susceptibility map. It has been claimed that SINMAP analysis is reasonably successful in defining areas that intuitively appear to be susceptible to landsliding in regions with sparse information. The validations of the resulting susceptibility maps are performed by comparing them with the inventory map under LOGISNET system which provides tools to compare by using a histogram and a contingency table. Results of the experiment allow for establishing how the individual models predict the landslide location, advantages, and limitations. The results also show that although the model tends to improve with the use of calibrated field data, the landslide susceptibility map does not perfectly represent existing landslides.

Keywords: GIS, landslide, modeling, LOGISNET, SINMAP

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Authors: Doroteya K. Staykova, Dirk J. Lefeber, Sabine A. Fuchs, Judith J. M. Jans

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Cholestasis is characterized by the accumulation of toxic bile salts and lipids in the organism. The variety in causes (genetic, immunologic, environmental) and nature (benign, transient, chronic, progressive) combined with the need for early diagnosis and rapid clinical decisions emphasizes the need for good diagnostic strategies to improve patient outcomes. In a current diagnostic analysis of cholestasis, mass-spectrometry metabolomics is a widely adopted tool to enhance clinical decisions at point-of-care, thanks to a short turnaround in measurement times while performing comprehensive molecular profiling of patient material. However, this comes at the cost of difficult-to-identify yet actionable knowledge, often buried within large and heterogenous omics data. Here, we demonstrate how topological data analysis can overcome this challenge in large metabolomics datasets of patients with twenty categories of Metabolic Disorders and overlapping clinical manifestations. To elucidate the complexity of disease progression in three cholestasis patients, we applied topological data analysis to direct-infusion mass spectrometry data collected from 190 plasma samples, including 67 controls, at the University Medical Center in Utrecht, Netherlands. Using the Mapper algorithm and filter function defined as a two-component projection based on Principal Component Analysis, we constructed a topological graph of connected patients, termed a Patient Connectivity Network (PCN). With incorporated clinical and molecular information, PCN revealed the topological shape of causes and severity of cholestasis and transitions in patients’ conditions. In conclusion, topology based PCN provides a holistic view of cholestasis state dynamics that has the potential to support and expedite clinical decisions.

Keywords: mass spectrometry-based metabolomics, patient connectivity network, topological data analysis, unmet clinical needs in Cholestasis

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Authors: Sellidj Abdelaziz, Lebaili Soltane

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A cobalt-based alloy type Co-Cr-Ni-WC was deposited by plasma transferred arc projection (PTA) on a stainless steel valve. The alloy is characterized at the equilibrium by a solid solution Co (γ) mainly dendritic, and eutectic carbides M₇C₃ and ηM₆C. At the deposit/substrate interface, this microstructure is modified by the fast cooling mode of the alloy when applied in the liquid state on the relatively cold steel substrate. The structure formed in this case is heterogeneous and metastable phases can occur and evolve over temperature service. Coating properties and reliability are directly related to microstructures formed during deposition. We were interested more particularly in this microstructure formed during the solidification of the deposit in the region of the interface joining the soldered couple and its evolution during cyclic heat treatments at temperatures similar to those of the thermal environment of the valve. The characterization was carried out by SEM-EDS microprobe CAMECA, XRD, and micro hardness profiles. The deposit obtained has a linear and regular appearance that is free of cracks and with little porosity. The morphology of the microstructure represents solidification stages that are relatively fast with a temperature gradient high at the beginning of the interface by forming a plane front solid solution Co (γ). It gradually changes with the decreasing temperature gradient by getting farther from the junction towards the outer limit of the deposit. The matrix takes the forms: cellular, mixed (cells and dendrites) and dendritic. Dendritic growth is done according to primary ramifications in the direction of the heat removal which takes place in the direction perpendicular to the interface, towards the external surface of the deposit, following secondary and tertiary undeveloped arms. The eutectic carbides M₇C₃ and ηM₆C formed are very thin and are located in the intercellular and interdendritic spaces of the solid solution Co (γ).

Keywords: Co-Ni-Cr-W-C alloy, solid deposit, microstructure, carbides, cyclic heat treatment

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Authors: Saúl Rivero, Estefanya Marín, Katherine Bolaño, Elena Urán, Juan Yepes, Andrés Cossio

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Medellín is the Colombian city with the best public transport systems in the country, which is made up of two metro lines, five metrocables, two BRT-type bus lines, and a tram. But despite the above, the Aburrá Valley, the area in which the city is located, has about 3000 km of roads, which for the existing population of 3.2 million inhabitants, gives an indicator of 900 meters of road per 1000 inhabitants, which is lower than the country's average, which is approximately 3900 meters. In addition, given that in Medellín, there is approximately one vehicle for every three inhabitants, the problems of congestion and environmental pollution have worsened over the years. In this sense, due to the limitations of physical space, the low public investment in road infrastructure, it is necessary to opt for mobility alternatives according to the above. Among the options for the city, there is what is known as micromobility. Micromobility is understood to be those small and light means of transport that are used for short distances, that use electrical energy, such as skateboards and bicycles. Taking into account the above, in this work, the current state and future of micromobility in the city of Medellín were analyzed, carrying out a prospective analysis, supported by a PEST analysis, but also of the crossed impact matrices; of influence and dependence; and the technique of the actor's game. The analysis was carried out for two future scenarios: one normal and one optimistic. Result of the analysis, it was determined that micromobility as an alternative social practice to mobility in the city of Medellín has favorable conditions since the local government has adopted strategies such as the Metropolitan Bicycle Master Plan of Valle de Aburrá and the plan " Bicycle paths in the city: more public spaces for life,” where a projection of 400 kilometers of bicycle paths was estimated by the year 2030, as for that same year it is expected that 10% of all trips in the region will be in bike mode. The total trip indicator is an achievable goal, while that of the number of kilometers of bike paths would be close to being met.

Keywords: electric vehicles, micromobilty, public transport, sustainable transport

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Authors: Shaikah Alsubayae, Gianluigi Casse, Carlos Chavez, Jon Taylor, Alan Taylor, Mohammad Alsulimane

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Ensuring accurate radiotherapy with carbon therapy requires precise monitoring of radiation dose distribution within the patient's body. This monitoring is essential for targeted tumor treatment, minimizing harm to healthy tissues, and improving treatment effectiveness while lowering side effects. In our investigation, we employed a methodological approach to monitor secondary proton doses in carbon therapy using Monte Carlo simulations. Initially, Geant4 simulations were utilized to extract the initial positions of secondary particles formed during interactions between carbon ions and water. These particles included protons, gamma rays, alpha particles, neutrons, and tritons. Subsequently, we studied the relationship between the carbon ion beam and these secondary particles. Interaction Vertex Imaging (IVI) is valuable for monitoring dose distribution in carbon therapy. It provides details about the positions and amounts of secondary particles, particularly protons. The IVI method depends on charged particles produced during ion fragmentation to gather information about the range by reconstructing particle trajectories back to their point of origin, referred to as the vertex. In our simulations regarding carbon ion therapy, we observed a strong correlation between some secondary particles and the range of carbon ions. However, challenges arose due to the target's unique elongated geometry, which hindered the straightforward transmission of forward-generated protons. Consequently, the limited protons that emerged mostly originated from points close to the target entrance. The trajectories of fragments (protons) were approximated as straight lines, and a beam back-projection algorithm, using recorded interaction positions in Si detectors, was developed to reconstruct vertices. The analysis revealed a correlation between the reconstructed and actual positions.

Keywords: radiotherapy, carbon therapy, monitoring of radiation dose, interaction vertex imaging

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Authors: Husain Rajib, T. H. Sheikh, D. G. Jewel

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Background: Amblyopia is a frequent cause of monocular blindness in children. It can be unilateral or bilateral reduction of best corrected visual acuity associated with decrement in visual processing, accomodation, motility, spatial perception or spatial projection. Anisometropia is an important risk factor for amblyopia that develops when unequal refractive error causes the image to be blurred in the critical developmental period and central inhibition of the visual signal originating from the affected eye associated with significant visual problems including anisokonia, strabismus, and reduced stereopsis. Methods: It is a prospective hospital based study of newly diagnosed of amblyopia seen at the pediatric clinic of Chittagong Eye Infirmary & Training Complex. There were 50 anisometropic amblyopia subjects were examined & questionnaire was piloted. Included were all patients diagnosed with refractive amblyopia between 3 to 13 years, without previous amblyopia treatment, and whose parents were interested to participate in the study. Patients diagnosed with strabismic amblyopia were excluded. Patients were first corrected with the best correction for a month. When the VA in the amblyopic eye did not improve over month, then occlusion treatment was started. Occlusion was done daily for 6-8 hours (full time) together with vision therapy. The occlusion was carried out for 3 months. Results: In this study about 8% subjects had anisometropia from myopia, 18% from hyperopia, 74% from astigmatism. The initial mean visual acuity was 0.74 ± 0.39 Log MAR and after intervention of amblyopia therapy with active vision therapy mean visual acuity was 0.34 ± 0.26 Log MAR. About 94% of subjects were improving at least two lines. The depth of amblyopia associated with type of anisometropic refractive error and magnitude of Anisometropia (p<0.005). By doing this study 10% mild amblyopia, 64% moderate and 26% severe amblyopia were found. Binocular function also decreases with magnitude of Anisometropia. Conclusion: Anisometropic amblyopia is a most important factor in pediatric age group because it can lead to visual impairment. Occlusion therapy with at least one instructed hour of active visual activity practiced out of school hours was effective in anisometropic amblyopes who were diagnosed at the age of 8 years and older, and the patients complied well with the treatment.

Keywords: refractive error, anisometropia, amblyopia, strabismic amblyopia

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Authors: J. M. Alzate, J. Baena

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This work presents the final results of the ‘Diagnosis of the hydrological and hydrogeological potential in the Mancomojan basin for estimations of offer and demand’ with the purpose of obtaining solutions of domestic supply for the communities of the zone of study. There was realized the projection of population of the paths by three different scenes. The highest water total demand appears with the considerations of the scene 3, with a total demand for the year 2050 of 59.275 m3/year (1,88 l/s), being the path San Francisco the one that exercises a major pressure on the resource with a demand for the same year of the order of 31.189 m3/year (0,99 l/s). As for the hydrogeological potential of the zone and as alternative of supply of the studied communities, the stratigraphic columns obtained of the geophysical polls do not show strata saturated with water that could be considered to be a potential source of supply for the communities. The water registered in the geophysics tests presents very low resistances what indicates that he presents ions, this water meets in the rock interstices very thin granulometries which indicates that it is a water of constitution, and the flow of this one towards more permeable granulometries is void or limited. The underground resource that is registered so much in electrical vertical polls (SEV) as in tomography and that is saturating rocks of thin granulometry (clays and slimes), was demonstrated by content of ions, which is consistent with the abundant presence of plaster and the genesis marinades with transition to continental of the geological units in the zone. Predominant rocks are sedimentary, sandy rocks of grain I die principally, in minor proportion were observed also sandstones of thick grain to conglomerate with clastic rock of quartz, chert and siltstone of the Formation Mess and sandstones (of thin, average and thick grain) alternating with caps conglomerate whose thickness is, in general, between 5 and 15 cm, the nodules of sandstones are frequent with the same composition of the sandstones that contain them, in some cases with calcareous and crossed stratification of the formation Sincelejo Miembro Morroa.

Keywords: hydrological, hydrogeological potential, geotomography, vertical electrical sounding (VES)

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Authors: Samuel Quick

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The purpose of this paper is to examine future urban street design in the context of developing technologies, evolving street typologies, and projected transportation trends. The goal was to envision a future urban street in the year 2060 that addresses the advent and implementation of autonomous vehicles, the promotion of new street typologies, and the projection of current transportation trends. Using a hierarchy of functional needs for urban streets, the future street was designed and evaluated based on the functions the street provides to the surrounding community. The site chosen for the future street design is an eight-block section of West North Avenue in the city of Baltimore, Maryland. Three different conceptual designs were initially completed and evaluated leading to a master plan for West North Avenue as well as street designs for connecting streets that represent different existing street types. Final designs were compared with the existing street design and evaluated with the adapted ‘Hierarchy of Needs’ theory. The review of the literature and the results from this paper indicate that urban streets will have to become increasingly multi-functional to meet the competing needs of the environment and community. Future streets will have to accommodate multimodal transit which will include mass transit, walking, and biking. Furthermore, a comprehensive implementation of green infrastructure within the urban street will provide access to nature for urban communities and essential stormwater management. With these developments, the future of an urban street will move closer to a greenway typology. Findings from this study indicate that urban street design will have to be policy-driven to promote and implement autonomous bus-rapid-transit in order to conserve street space for other functions. With this conservation of space, urban streets can then provide more functions to the surrounding community, taking a holistic approach to urban street design.

Keywords: autonomous vehicle, greenway, green infrastructure, multi-modality, street typology

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Authors: G. Venkatesha, Urs Samarth, H. K. Ramaraju, Arun Kumar Sharma

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The projection for Groundwater states that the total domestic water demand for greater Bangalore would increase from 1,170 MLD in 2010 to 1,336 MLD in 2016. Dependence on groundwater is ever increasing due to rapid Industrialization & Urbanization. It is estimated that almost 40% of the population of Bangalore is dependent on groundwater. Due to the unscientific disposal of domestic and industrial waste generated, groundwater is getting highly polluted in the city. The scale of this impact will depend mainly upon the water-service infrastructure, the superficial geology and the regional setting. The quality of ground water is equally important as that of quantity. Jointed and fractured granites and gneisses constitute the major aquifer system of BBMP area. Two new observatory Borewells were drilled and lithology report has been prepared. Petrographic Analysis (XRD/XRF) and Water quality Analysis were carried out as per the standard methods. Petrographic samples were analysed by collecting chip of rock from the borewell for every 20ft depth, most of the samples were similar and samples were identified as Biotite-Gneiss, Schistose Amphibolite. Water quality analysis was carried out for individual chemical parameters for two borewells drilled. 1st Borewell struck water at 150ft (Total depth-200ft) & 2nd struck at 740ft (Total depth-960ft). 5 water samples were collected till end of depth in each borewell. Chemical parameter values such as, Total Hardness (360-348, 280-320) mg/ltr, Nitrate (12.24-13.5, 45-48) mg/ltr, Chloride (104-90, 70-70)mg/ltr, Fe (0.75-0.09, 1.288-0.312)mg/ltr etc. are calculated respectively. Water samples were analysed from various parts of BBMP covering 750 sq kms, also thematic maps (IDW method) of water quality is generated for these samples for Post-Monsoon season. The study aims to explore the sub-surface Lithological layers and the thickness of weathered zone, which indirectly helps to know the Groundwater pollution source near surface water bodies, dug wells, etc. The above data are interpreted for future ground water resources planning and management.

Keywords: lithology, petrographic, pollution, urbanization

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Authors: Seyed-Yaser Nabavi-Chashmi, Davood Asadi, Karim Ahmadi, Eren Demir

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The landing phase of a UAV is very critical as there are many uncertainties in this phase, which can easily entail a hard landing or even a crash. In this paper, the estimation of relative distance and velocity to the ground, as one of the most important processes during the landing phase, is studied. Using accurate measurement sensors as an alternative approach can be very expensive for sensors like LIDAR, or with a limited operational range, for sensors like ultrasonic sensors. Additionally, absolute positioning systems like GPS or IMU cannot provide distance to the ground independently. The focus of this paper is to determine whether we can measure the relative distance and velocity of UAV and ground in the landing phase using just low-resolution images taken by a monocular camera. The Lucas-Konda feature detection technique is employed to extract the most suitable feature in a series of images taken during the UAV landing. Two different approaches based on Extended Kalman Filters (EKF) have been proposed, and their performance in estimation of the relative distance and velocity are compared. The first approach uses the kinematics of the UAV as the process and the calculated optical flow as the measurement; On the other hand, the second approach uses the feature’s projection on the camera plane (pixel position) as the measurement while employing both the kinematics of the UAV and the dynamics of variation of projected point as the process to estimate both relative distance and relative velocity. To verify the results, a sequence of low-quality images taken by a camera that is moving on a specifically developed testbed has been used to compare the performance of the proposed algorithm. The case studies show that the quality of images results in considerable noise, which reduces the performance of the first approach. On the other hand, using the projected feature position is much less sensitive to the noise and estimates the distance and velocity with relatively high accuracy. This approach also can be used to predict the future projected feature position, which can drastically decrease the computational workload, as an important criterion for real-time applications.

Keywords: altitude estimation, drone, image processing, trajectory planning

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Authors: Mohammadreza Hedyehzadeh, Mahdi Yousefi

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Colon cancer is one of the most common cancer, which predicted to increase its prevalence due to the bad eating habits of peoples. Nowadays, due to the busyness of people, the use of fast foods is increasing, and therefore, diagnosis of this disease and its treatment are of particular importance. To determine the best treatment approach for each specific colon cancer patients, the oncologist should be known the stage of the tumor. The most common method to determine the tumor stage is TNM staging system. In this system, M indicates the presence of metastasis, N indicates the extent of spread to the lymph nodes, and T indicates the size of the tumor. It is clear that in order to determine all three of these parameters, an imaging method must be used, and the gold standard imaging protocols for this purpose are CT and PET/CT. In CT imaging, due to the use of X-rays, the risk of cancer and the absorbed dose of the patient is high, while in the PET/CT method, there is a lack of access to the device due to its high cost. Therefore, in this study, we aimed to estimate the tumor size and the extent of its spread to the lymph nodes using MR images. More than 1300 MR images collected from the TCIA portal, and in the first step (pre-processing), histogram equalization to improve image qualities and resizing to get the same image size was done. Two expert radiologists, which work more than 21 years on colon cancer cases, segmented the images and extracted the tumor region from the images. The next step is feature extraction from segmented images and then classify the data into three classes: T0N0، T3N1 و T3N2. In this article, the VGG-16 convolutional neural network has been used to perform both of the above-mentioned tasks, i.e., feature extraction and classification. This network has 13 convolution layers for feature extraction and three fully connected layers with the softmax activation function for classification. In order to validate the proposed method, the 10-fold cross validation method used in such a way that the data was randomly divided into three parts: training (70% of data), validation (10% of data) and the rest for testing. It is repeated 10 times, each time, the accuracy, sensitivity and specificity of the model are calculated and the average of ten repetitions is reported as the result. The accuracy, specificity and sensitivity of the proposed method for testing dataset was 89/09%, 95/8% and 96/4%. Compared to previous studies, using a safe imaging technique (MRI) and non-use of predefined hand-crafted imaging features to determine the stage of colon cancer patients are some of the study advantages.

Keywords: colon cancer, VGG-16, magnetic resonance imaging, tumor size, lymph node metastasis

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Authors: Jesse Rafeiro

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This paper discusses worldbuilding as a pedagogical approach to the first-year architectural design studio. The studio ran for three consecutive terms between 2016-2018. Taking its departure from the fifty-five city narratives in Italo Calvino’s Invisible Cities, students collectively designed in a “nowhere” space where intersecting and diverging narratives could be played out. Along with Calvino, students navigated between three main exercises and their imposed limits to develop architectural insight at three scales simulating the considerations of architectural practice: detail, building, and city. The first exercise asked each student to design and model a ruin based on randomly assigned incongruent fragments. Each student was given one plan fragment and two section fragments from different Renaissance Treatises. The students were asked to translate these in alternating axonometric projection and model-making explorations. Although the fragments themselves were imposed, students were free to interpret how the drawings fit together by imagining new details and atypical placements. An undulating terrain model was introduced in the second exercise to ground the worldbuilding exercises. Here, students were required to negotiate with one another to design a city of ruins. Free to place their models anywhere on the site, the students were restricted by the negotiation of territories marked by other students and the requirement to provide thresholds, open spaces, and corridors. The third exercise introduced new life into the ruined city through a series of design interventions. Each student was assigned an atypical building program suggesting a place for an activity, human or nonhuman. The atypical nature of the programs challenged the triviality of functional planning through explorations in spatial narratives free from preconceived assumptions. By contesting, playing out, or dreaming responses to realities taught in other coursework, this third exercise actualized learnings that are too often self-contained in the silos of differing course agendas. As such, the studio fostered an initial worldbuilding space within which to sharpen sensibility and criticality for subsequent years of education.

Keywords: architectural pedagogy, critical pedagogy, Italo Calvino, worldbuilding

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Authors: Uliana N. Tumanova, Sergey M. Voevodin, Veronica A. Sinitsyna, Alexandr I. Shchegolev

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An important part of forensic and autopsy research in perinatology is the answer to the question of life and stillbirth. Postmortem magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is an objective non-invasive research method that allows to store data for a long time and not to exhume the body to clarify the diagnosis. The purpose of the research is to study the possibilities of a postmortem MRI to determine the stillbirth and death of a newborn who had spontaneous breathing and died on the first day after birth. MRI and morphological data of a study of 23 stillborn bodies, prenatally dead at a gestational age of 22-39 weeks (Group I) and the bodies of 16 newborns who died from 2 to 24 hours after birth (Group II) were compared. Before the autopsy, postmortem MRI was performed on the Siemens Magnetom Verio 3T device in the supine position of the body. The control group for MRI studies consisted of 7 live newborns without lung disease (Group III). On T2WI in the sagittal projection was measured MR-signal intensity (SI) in the lung tissue (L) and shoulder muscle (M). During the autopsy, a pulmonary swimming test was evaluated, and macro- and microscopic studies were performed. According to the postmortem MRI, the highest values of mean SI of the lung (430 ± 27.99) and of the muscle (405.5 ± 38.62) on T2WI were detected in group I and exceeded the corresponding value of group II by 2.7 times. The lowest values were found in the control group - 77.9 ± 12.34 and 119.7 ± 6.3, respectively. In the group II, the lung SI was 1.6 times higher than the muscle SI, whereas in the group I and in the control group, the muscle SI was 2.1 times and 1.8 times larger than the lung. On the basis of clinical and morphological data, we calculated the formula for determining the breathing index (BI) during postmortem MRI: BI = SIL x SIM / 100. The mean value of BI in the group I (1801.14 ± 241.6) (values ranged from 756 to 3744) significantly higher than the corresponding average value of BI in the group II (455.89 ± 137.32, p < 0.05) (305-638.4). In the control group, the mean BI value was 91.75 ± 13.3 (values ranged from 53 to 154). The BI with the results of pulmonary swimming tests and microscopic examination of the lungs were compared. The boundary value of BI for the differential diagnosis of stillborn and newborn death was 700. Using the postmortem MRI allows to differentiate the stillborn with the death of the breathing newborn.

Keywords: lung, newborn, postmortem MRI, stillborn

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Authors: Syed Hammad Ali, Rijan Bhakta Kayastha, Danial Hashmi, Richard Armstrong, Ahuti Shrestha, Iram Bano, Javed Hassan

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This paper presents the results of a semi-distributed modified positive degree-day model (MPDDM) for estimating snow and ice melt contributions to discharge from the glacierized Hunza River basin, Pakistan. The model uses daily temperature data, daily precipitation data, and positive degree day factors for snow and ice melt. The model is calibrated for the period 1995-2001 and validated for 2002-2013, and demonstrates close agreements between observed and simulated discharge with Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiencies of 0.90 and 0.88, respectively. Furthermore, the Weather Research and Forecasting model projected temperature, and precipitation data from 2016-2050 are used for representative concentration pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, and bias correction was done using a statistical approach for future discharge estimation. No drastic changes in future discharge are predicted for the emissions scenarios. The aggregate snow-ice melt contribution is 39% of total discharge in the period 1993-2013. Snow-ice melt contribution ranges from 35% to 63% during the high flow period (May to October), which constitutes 89% of annual discharge; in the low flow period (November to April) it ranges from 0.02% to 17%, which constitutes 11 % of the annual discharge. The snow-ice melt contribution to total discharge will increase gradually in the future and reach up to 45% in 2041-2050. From a sensitivity analysis, it is found that the combination of a 2°C temperature rise and 20% increase in precipitation shows a 10% increase in discharge. The study allows us to evaluate the impact of climate change in such basins and is also useful for the future prediction of discharge to define hydropower potential, inform other water resource management in the area, to understand future changes in snow-ice melt contribution to discharge, and offer a possible evaluation of future water quantity and availability.

Keywords: climate variability, future discharge projection, positive degree day, regional climate model, water resource management

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Authors: Shaikah Alsubayae, Gianluigi Casse, Carlos Chavez, Jon Taylor, Alan Taylor, Mohammad Alsulimane

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Achieving precise radiotherapy through carbon therapy necessitates the accurate monitoring of radiation dose distribution within the patient's body. This process is pivotal for targeted tumor treatment, minimizing harm to healthy tissues, and enhancing overall treatment effectiveness while reducing the risk of side effects. In our investigation, we adopted a methodological approach to monitor secondary proton doses in carbon therapy using Monte Carlo (MC) simulations. Initially, Geant4 simulations were employed to extract the initial positions of secondary particles generated during interactions between carbon ions and water, including protons, gamma rays, alpha particles, neutrons, and tritons. Subsequently, we explored the relationship between the carbon ion beam and these secondary particles. Interaction vertex imaging (IVI) proves valuable for monitoring dose distribution during carbon therapy, providing information about secondary particle locations and abundances, particularly protons. The IVI method relies on charged particles produced during ion fragmentation to gather range information by reconstructing particle trajectories back to their point of origin, known as the vertex. In the context of carbon ion therapy, our simulation results indicated a strong correlation between some secondary particles and the range of carbon ions. However, challenges arose due to the unique elongated geometry of the target, hindering the straightforward transmission of forward-generated protons. Consequently, the limited protons that did emerge predominantly originated from points close to the target entrance. Fragment (protons) trajectories were approximated as straight lines, and a beam back-projection algorithm, utilizing interaction positions recorded in Si detectors, was developed to reconstruct vertices. The analysis revealed a correlation between the reconstructed and actual positions.

Keywords: radiotherapy, carbon therapy, monitor secondary proton doses, interaction vertex imaging

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Authors: Bathmajaa Muralisankar

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As much as railway station infrastructure designs and ticket-booking norms have been changed to facilitate use by differently abled persons, the railway train compartments themselves have not been made user-friendly for differently abled persons. Owing to safety concerns, dependency on others for their travel, and fear of isolation, differently abled people do not prefer travelling by train. Rather than including a dedicated compartment open only to the differently abled, including the latter with others in the normal compartment (with the proposed modifications discussed here) will make them feel secure and make for an enhanced travel experience for them. This approach also represents the most practical way to include a particular category of people in the mainstream society. Lowering the height of the compartment doors and providing a wider entrance with a ramp will provide easy entry for those using wheelchairs. As well, removing the first two alternate rows and the first two side seats will not only widen the passage and increase seating space but also improve wheelchair turning radius. This will help them travel without having to depend on others. Seating arrangements may be done to accommodate their family members near them instead of isolating the differently abled in a separate compartment. According to present ticket-booking regulations of the Indian Railways, three to four disabled persons may travel without their family or one to two along with their family, and the numbers may be added or reduced. To help visually challenged and hearing-impaired persons, in addition to the provision of special instruments, railings, and textured footpaths and flooring, the seat numbers above the seats may be set in metal or plastic as an outward projection so the visually impaired can touch and feel the numbers. Braille boards may be included at the entrance to the compartment along with seat numbers in the aforementioned projected manner. These seat numbers may be designed as buttons, which when pressed results in an announcement of the seat number in the applicable local language as well as English. Emergency buttons, rather than emergency chains, within the easy reach of disabled passengers will also help them.

Keywords: dependency, differently abled, inclusion, mainstream society

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Authors: Lars Andersen

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The development of design and engineering in large construction projects are characterized by an increased degree of flattening out of formal structures, extended use of parallel and integrated processes (‘Integrated Concurrent Engineering’) and an increased number of expert disciplines. The integration process is based on ongoing collaborations, dialogues, intercommunication and comments on each other’s work (iterations). This process based on reciprocal communication between actors and disciplines triggers value creation. However, communication between equals is not in itself sufficient to create effective decision making. The complexity of the process and time pressure contribute to an increased risk of a deficit of decisions and loss of process control. The paper refers to a study that aims at developing a resilient decision-making system that does not come in conflict with communication processes based on equality between the disciplines in the process. The study includes the construction of a hospital, following the phases design, engineering and physical building. The Research method is a combination of formative process research, process tracking and phenomenological analyses. The study tracked challenges and problems in the building process to the projection substrates (drawing and models) and further to the organization of the engineering and design phase. A comparative analysis of traditional and new ways of organizing the projecting made it possible to uncover an implicit material order or structure in the process. This uncovering implied a development of a material process perspective. According to this perspective the complexity of the process is rooted in material-functional differentiation. This differentiation presupposes a structuring material (the skeleton of the building) that coordinates the other types of material. Each expert discipline´s competence is related to one or a set of materials. The architect, consulting engineer construction etc. have their competencies related to structuring material, and inherent in this; coordination competence. When dialogues between the disciplines concerning the coordination between them do not result in agreement, the disciplines with responsibility for the structuring material decide the interface issues. Based on these premises, this paper develops a self-organized expert-driven interdisciplinary decision-making system.

Keywords: collaboration, complexity, design, engineering, materiality

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Authors: Luiz Nolasco Jr. Rezende, Antonio Villar M. Sá, Claudia Marcia L. Pato

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The increasing urban violence in Brazil involves more and more infractions committed by children and youths. The challenges faced by the institutional environments responsible for the education and resocialization of adolescents in conflict with the law are enormous, especially of those deprived of their liberty. These institutions have an inadequate educational structure. They are characterized by a dirty and unhealthy environment without the minimum basic conditions for their activities, by frequent practices of degradation, humiliation, and the physical and psychological punishment of inmates. This mixed-method study investigated the personal values of adolescents with restriction of freedom in a socio-educational institutional environment aiming to contribute to the development of their morality through an educational process. For that, we used a survey and transdisciplinary play workshops involving thirty-two boys aged between 15 and 19 years old and at least two years out of school. To evaluate the survey the reduced version of the Portrait Questionnaire—PQ21—was used. The workshops happened once a week, lasting 80 minutes each, totaling twelve meetings. By using the game of chess and its metaphors, participants produced texts and engaged in critical brainstorming about their lives. The survey results pointed out that these young people showed a predominance of values of openness to change and self-transcendence, dissatisfaction with one's own reality and surroundings, not considering the consequences of their actions on themselves and others, difficulties in speaking and writing, and desire for changes in their lives. After the pedagogical interventions, these adolescents demonstrated an understanding of the implications of their actions for themselves, for their families, especially for the mothers, with whom they demonstrated stronger bonds. It was possible to observe evidence of improvement in the capacity of linguistic expression, more autonomy and critical vision, including about themselves and their respective contexts. These results demonstrated the educational potential of lively, symbolic, dynamic and playful activities that favor the mediation and identification of these adolescents with their lives, and contribute to the projection of dreams.

Keywords: adolescents arrested, human values, moral development, playful workshops

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Authors: Robert Cazar, Nathaly Maza

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Energy drinks and sports drinks are quite popular among young adults and teenagers worldwide. Some concerns regarding their health effects – particularly those of the energy drinks - have been raised based on scientific findings. Differentiating between these two types of drinks by means of their chemical properties seems to be an instructive task. Chemometrics provides the most appropriate strategy to do so. In this study, a discrimination analysis of the energy and sports drinks has been carried out applying chemometric methods. A set of eleven samples of available commercial brands of drinks – seven energy drinks and four sports drinks – were collected. Each sample was characterized by eight chemical variables (carbohydrates, energy, sugar, sodium, pH, degrees Brix, density, and citric acid). The data set was standardized and examined by exploratory chemometric techniques such as clustering and principal component analysis. As a preliminary step, a variable selection was carried out by inspecting the variable correlation matrix. It was detected that some variables are redundant, so they can be safely removed, leaving only five variables that are sufficient for this analysis. They are sugar, sodium, pH, density, and citric acid. Then, a hierarchical clustering `employing the average – linkage criterion and using the Euclidian distance metrics was performed. It perfectly separates the two types of drinks since the resultant dendogram, cut at the 25% similarity level, assorts the samples in two well defined groups, one of them containing the energy drinks and the other one the sports drinks. Further assurance of the complete discrimination is provided by the principal component analysis. The projection of the data set on the first two principal components – which retain the 71% of the data information – permits to visualize the distribution of the samples in the two groups identified in the clustering stage. Since the first principal component is the discriminating one, the inspection of its loadings consents to characterize such groups. The energy drinks group possesses medium to high values of density, citric acid, and sugar. The sports drinks group, on the other hand, exhibits low values of those variables. In conclusion, the application of chemometric methods on a data set that features some chemical properties of a number of energy and sports drinks provides an accurate, dependable way to discriminate between these two types of beverages.

Keywords: chemometrics, clustering, energy drinks, principal component analysis, sports drinks

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Authors: Mohamed Ghoz, Hala Alsabeh

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Context: Macroscopic Nose Macroneedling (MNM) is a new non-surgical procedure for lifting and tightening the nose. It is a tissue-non-invasive technique that uses a needle to create micro-injuries in the skin. These injuries stimulate the production of collagen and elastin, which results in the tightening and lifting of the skin. Research Aim: The research aim of this study was to investigate the efficacy and safety of MNM for the treatment of nasal deformities. Methodology A total of 100 patients with nasal deformities were included in this study. The patients were randomly assigned to either the MNM group or the control group. The MNM group received a single treatment of MNM, while the control group received no treatment. The patients were evaluated at baseline, 6 months, and 12 months after treatment. Findings: The results of this study showed that MNM was effective in improving the appearance of the nose in patients with nasal deformities. At 6 months after treatment, the patients in the MNM group had significantly improved nasal tip projection, nasal bridge height, and nasal width compared to the patients in the control group. The improvements in nasal appearance were maintained at 12 months after treatment. Theoretical Importance: The findings of this study provide support for the use of MNM as a safe and effective treatment for nasal deformities. MNM is a non-surgical procedure that is associated with minimal downtime and no risk of scarring. This makes it an attractive option for patients who are looking for a minimally invasive treatment for their nasal deformities. Data Collection: Data was collected from the patients using a variety of methods, including clinical assessments, photographic assessments, and patient-reported outcome measures. Analysis Procedures: The data was analyzed using a variety of statistical methods, including descriptive statistics, inferential statistics, and meta-analysis. Question Addressed: The research question addressed in this study was whether MNM is an effective and safe treatment for nasal deformities. Conclusion: The findings of this study suggest that MNM is an effective and safe treatment for nasal deformities. MNM is a non-surgical procedure that is associated with minimal downtime and no risk of scarring. This makes it an attractive option for patients who are looking for a minimally invasive treatment for their nasal deformities.

Keywords: nose, surgery, tie, suture

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Authors: Jalil ur Rehman, Ramesh C. Tailor, Muhammad Isa Khan, Jahnzeeb Ashraf, Muhammad Afzal, Geofferry S. Ibbott

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Purpose: The purpose of this analysis was to investigate dose distribution of different techniques (3D-CRT, IMRT and VMAT) of head and neck cancer using 3-dimensional dosimeter called PRESAGETM Dosimeter. Materials and Methods: Computer tomography (CT) scans of radiological physics center (RPC) head and neck anthropomorphic phantom with both RPC standard insert and PRESAGETM insert were acquired separated with Philipp’s CT scanner and both CT scans were exported via DICOM to the Pinnacle version 9.4 treatment planning system (TPS). Each plan was delivered twice to the RPC phantom first containing the RPC standard insert having TLD and film dosimeters and then again containing the Presage insert having 3-D dosimeter (PRESAGETM) by using a Varian True Beam linear accelerator. After irradiation, the standard insert including point dose measurements (TLD) and planar Gafchromic® EBT film measurement were read using RPC standard procedure. The 3D dose distribution from PRESAGETM was read out with the Duke Midsized optical scanner dedicated to RPC (DMOS-RPC). Dose volume histogram (DVH), mean and maximal doses for organs at risk were calculated and compared among each head and neck technique. The prescription dose was same for all head and neck radiotherapy techniques which was 6.60 Gy/friction. Beam profile comparison and gamma analysis were used to quantify agreements among film measurement, PRESAGETM measurement and calculated dose distribution. Quality assurances of all plans were performed by using ArcCHECK method. Results: VMAT delivered the lowest mean and maximum doses to organ at risk (spinal cord, parotid) than IMRT and 3DCRT. Such dose distribution was verified by absolute dose distribution using thermoluminescent dosimeter (TLD) system. The central axial, sagittal and coronal planes were evaluated using 2D gamma map criteria(± 5%/3 mm) and results were 99.82% (axial), 99.78% (sagital), 98.38% (coronal) for VMAT plan and found the agreement between PRESAGE and pinnacle was better than IMRT and 3D-CRT plan excludes a 7 mm rim at the edge of the dosimeter. Profile showed good agreement for all plans between film, PRESAGE and pinnacle and 3D gamma was performed for PTV and OARs, VMAT and 3DCRT endow with better agreement than IMRT. Conclusion: VMAT delivered lowered mean and maximal doses to organs at risk and better PTV coverage during head and neck radiotherapy. TLD, EBT film and PRESAGETM dosimeters suggest that VMAT was better for the treatment of head and neck cancer than IMRT and 3D-CRT.

Keywords: RPC, 3DCRT, IMRT, VMAT, EBT2 film, TLD, PRESAGETM

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Authors: Ali Essam El Shazly

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The Haussmannization plan of Cairo in 1867 formed a regular network of roundabout spaces, though deteriorated at present. The method of identifying the spatial structure of roundabout Cairo for conservation matches the voronoi diagram with the space syntax through their geometrical property of spatial convexity. In this initiative, the primary convex hull of first-order voronoi adopts the integral and control measurements of space syntax on Cairo’s roundabout generators. The functional essence of royal palaces optimizes the roundabout structure in terms of spatial measurements and the symbolic voronoi projection of 'Tahrir Roundabout' over the Giza Nile and Pyramids. Some roundabouts of major public and commercial landmarks surround the pole of 'Ezbekia Garden' with a higher control than integral measurements, which filter the new spatial structure from the adjacent traditional town. Nevertheless, the least integral and control measures correspond to the voronoi contents of pollutant workshops and the plateau of old Cairo Citadel with the visual compensation of new royal landmarks on top. Meanwhile, the extended suburbs of infinite voronoi polygons arrange high control generators of chateaux housing in 'garden city' environs. The point pattern of roundabouts determines the geometrical characteristics of voronoi polygons. The measured lengths of voronoi edges alternate between the zoned short range at the new poles of Cairo and the distributed structure of longer range. Nevertheless, the shortest range of generator-vertex geometry concentrates at 'Ezbekia Garden' where the crossways of vast Cairo intersect, which maximizes the variety of choice at different spatial resolutions. However, the symbolic 'Hippodrome' which is the largest public landmark forms exclusive geometrical measurements, while structuring a most integrative roundabout to parallel the royal syntax. Overview of the symbolic convex hull of voronoi with space syntax interconnects Parisian Cairo with the spatial chronology of scattered monuments to conceive one universal Cairo structure. Accordingly, the approached methodology of 'voronoi-syntax' prospects the future conservation of roundabout Cairo at the inferred city-level concept.

Keywords: roundabout Cairo, first-order Voronoi, space syntax, spatial structure

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Authors: Carmen Georgeta Dumitrache

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Measurements of terrestrial science aims to study the totality of operations and computing, which are carried out for the purposes of representation on the plan or map of the land surface in a specific cartographic projection and topographic scale. With the development of society, the metrics have evolved, and they land, being dependent on the achievement of a goal-bound utility of economic activity and of a scientific purpose related to determining the form and dimensions of the Earth. For measurements in the field, data processing and proper representation on drawings and maps of planimetry and landform of the land, using topographic and geodesic instruments, calculation and graphical reporting, which requires a knowledge of theoretical and practical concepts from different areas of science and technology. In order to use properly in practice, topographical and geodetic instruments designed to measure precise angles and distances are required knowledge of geometric optics, precision mechanics, the strength of materials, and more. For processing, the results from field measurements are necessary for calculation methods, based on notions of geometry, trigonometry, algebra, mathematical analysis and computer science. To be able to illustrate topographic measurements was established for the lifting of property located near the locality of Gircov, Romania. We determine this total surface of the plan (T30), parcel/plot, but also in the field trace the coordinates of a parcel. The purpose of the removal of the planimetric consisted of: the exact determination of the bounding surface; analytical calculation of the surface; comparing the surface determined with the one registered in the documents produced; drawing up a plan of location and delineation with closeness and distance contour, as well as highlighting the parcels comprising this property; drawing up a plan of location and delineation with closeness and distance contour for a parcel from Dave; in the field trace outline of plot points from the previous point. The ultimate goal of this work was to determine and represent the surface, but also to tear off a plot of the surface total, while respecting the first surface condition imposed by the Act of the beneficiary's property.

Keywords: topography, surface, coordinate, modeling

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Authors: Alonge Isaac Olusola

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This paper focuses on the evolution and development of Yoruba theatre during the pre-colonial, colonial and post-colonial years and how Yoruba crime films have been influenced by foreign culture. It emphasizes on the transition of theatre from the ground to the stage and from the stage to the screen with emphasis on the contribution of late Chief Hubert Ogunde who is regarded as the doyen of Yoruba and the entire Nigerian theatre. Using the Theory of Post-colonialism, two modern Yoruba crime films are carefully selected from the numerous available ones to highlight and explain the various aspects of Yoruba films that have been greatly influenced by the foreign cultural practices. The questions to be answered here include 'Which attitudes or cultural practices are widely believed to be that of Yoruba?', 'To what extent are they projected in the selected Yoruba crime films?', 'Which attitudes or cultural practices are widely believed to be foreign among the Yoruba people?', 'To what extent are they projected in the selected Yoruba crime films?'. Although, the British colonial masters granted political independence to Nigeria on October 1, 1960, but a seed of multi-culture and counterculture had been sown into the lives of the Yoruba people. Under the literature review, there is an intensive illumination on some scholars’ ideas and views on what constitutes Yoruba culture, the evolution and development of drama, theatre and films in the Yoruba society and the nature of criminals and criminalities in the Yoruba society and the western world in the pre-colonial and post-colonial times. Furthermore, the processes of interaction between man, his values and his thoughts are also highlighted – a situation that procreates criminal or benevolent acts. Consequently, the paper dwells on how colonialism, despite its so-called merits put the gradual process of urbanization and civilization among the originally rustic, cohesive and moralistic Yoruba society on a supersonic speed that culminated in acquisition of attitudes that are alien to the Yoruba culture. Since a drama is nothing but the theatrical replication of what occurs in the real life, the paper then focuses on the submission that Yoruba crime films have experienced a serious foreign influence in form and content as a result of this encounter. In conclusion, the findings of the impact of foreign cultural practices on Yoruba crime films are highlighted and expatiated with a view to recommending a few steps that could be taken to retain the projection of the original Yoruba cultural practices in Yoruba films, especially the ones that have crime as a theme.

Keywords: culture, films, theatre, Yoruba

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Authors: David C. Boettiger, Tracy Kuo Lin, Maram Almansour, Mariam M. Hamza, Reem Alsukait, Christopher H. Herbst, Nada Altheyab, Ayman Afghani, Faisal Kattan

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Background The number of people aged greater than 65 years per 100 people aged 20–64 years is expected to almost double in The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) between 2020 and 2030. We therefore aimed to quantify the growing non-communicable disease (NCD) burden in KSA between 2020 and 2030, and the impact this will have on the national health budget. Methods Ten priority NCDs were selected: ischemic heart disease, stroke, type 2 diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, chronic kidney disease, dementia, depression, osteoarthritis, colorectal cancer, and breast cancer. Age- and sex-specific prevalence was projected for each priority NCD between 2020 and 2030. Treatment coverage rates were applied to the projected prevalence estimates to calculate the number of patients incurring treatment costs for each condition. For each priority NCD, the average cost-of-illness was estimated based on published literature. The impact of changes to our base-case model in terms of assumed disease prevalence, treatment coverage, and costs of care, coming into effect from 2023 onwards, were explored. Results The prevalence estimates for colorectal cancer and stroke were estimated to almost double between 2020 and 2030 (97% and 88% increase, respectively). The only priority NCD prevalence projected to increase by less than 60% between 2020 and 2030 was for depression (22% increase). It is estimated that the total cost of managing priority NCDs in KSA will increase from USD 19.8 billion in 2020 to USD 32.4 billion in 2030 (an increase of USD 12.6 billion or 63%). The largest USD value increases were projected for osteoarthritis (USD 4.3 billion), diabetes (USD 2.4 billion), and dementia (USD 1.9 billion). In scenario analyses, our 2030 projection for the total cost of managing priority NCDs varied between USD 29.2 billion - USD 35.7 billion. Conclusions Managing the growing NCD burden in KSA’s aging population will require substantial healthcare spending increases over the coming years.

Keywords: aging, non communicable disease, costs, Saudi Arabia

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Authors: Fikru Fentaw Abera

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Climate changes alter regional hydrologic conditions and results in a variety of impacts on water resource systems. Such hydrologic changes will affect almost every aspect of human well-being. The goal of this paper is to assess the impact of climate change on the hydrology of Upper Guder catchment located in northwest of Ethiopia. The GCM derived scenarios (HadCM3 A2a & B2a SRES emission scenarios) experiments were used for the climate projection. The statistical downscaling model (SDSM) was used to generate future possible local meteorological variables in the study area. The down-scaled data were then used as input to the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model to simulate the corresponding future stream flow regime in Upper Guder catchment of the Abay River Basin. A semi distributed hydrological model, SWAT was developed and Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) was utilized for uncertainty analysis. GLUE is linked with SWAT in the Calibration and Uncertainty Program known as SWAT-CUP. Three benchmark periods simulated for this study were 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. The time series generated by GCM of HadCM3 A2a and B2a and Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) indicate a significant increasing trend in maximum and minimum temperature values and a slight increasing trend in precipitation for both A2a and B2a emission scenarios in both Gedo and Tikur Inch stations for all three bench mark periods. The hydrologic impact analysis made with the downscaled temperature and precipitation time series as input to the hydrological model SWAT suggested for both A2a and B2a emission scenarios. The model output shows that there may be an annual increase in flow volume up to 35% for both emission scenarios in three benchmark periods in the future. All seasons show an increase in flow volume for both A2a and B2a emission scenarios for all time horizons. Potential evapotranspiration in the catchment also will increase annually on average 3-15% for the 2020s and 7-25% for the 2050s and 2080s for both A2a and B2a emissions scenarios.

Keywords: climate change, Guder sub-basin, GCM, SDSM, SWAT, SWAT-CUP, GLUE

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