Search results for: fall risk

Authors: Manutchanok Jongprasithporn, Rawiphorn Srivilai, Paweena Pongsopha

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Fall is the most serious accident leading to increased unintentional injuries and mortality. Falls are not only the cause of suffering and functional impairments to the individuals, but also the cause of increasing medical cost and days away from work. The early detection of falls could be an advantage to reduce fall-related injuries and consequences of falls. Smartphones, embedded accelerometer, have become a common device in everyday life due to decreasing technology cost. This paper explores a physical activity monitoring and fall detection application in smartphones which is a non-invasive biomedical device to determine physical activities and fall event. The combination of application and sensors could perform as a biomedical sensor to monitor physical activities and recognize a fall. We have chosen Android-based smartphone in this study since android operating system is an open-source and no cost. Moreover, android phone users become a majority of Thai’s smartphone users. We developed Thai 3 Axis (TH3AX) as a physical activities and fall detection application which included command, manual, results in Thai language. The smartphone was attached to right hip of 10 young, healthy adult subjects (5 males, 5 females; aged< 35y) to collect accelerometer and gyroscope data during performing physical activities (e.g., walking, running, sitting, and lying down) and falling to determine threshold for each activity. Dependent variables are including accelerometer data (acceleration, peak acceleration, average resultant acceleration, and time between peak acceleration). A repeated measures ANOVA was performed to test whether there are any differences between DVs’ means. Statistical analyses were considered significant at p<0.05. After finding threshold, the results were used as training data for a predictive model of activity recognition. In the future, accuracies of activity recognition will be performed to assess the overall performance of the classifier. Moreover, to help improve the quality of life, our system will be implemented with patients and elderly people who need intensive care in hospitals and nursing homes in Thailand.

Keywords: activity recognition, accelerometer, fall, gyroscope, smartphone

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Authors: Najeebah Almahmeed

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Risk Management is an evolving subject among organizations that include corporations, governments, non-governmental organizations, and not-for-profit corporations. In order to enhance awareness around the importance of Risk Management and make sure everyone is using it in their day-to-day job, the Risk Culture topic has emerged and gained importance not only in the Finance Sector but also in the National Oil Companies in Kuwait. Risk Culture can be defined as the shared beliefs, attitudes, and behaviors within a company that guide its approach to managing risks. It acts as a connecting force that links policies, procedures, and individuals, influencing how risks are understood and tackled through activities. In this research, benefits of Risk Culture are shared, guidelines are presented to promote a risk aware culture, and fully embed and enforce Risk-based processes and procedures. Moreover, this research demonstrates methodologies of measuring the Risk Culture using specific dimensions and clusters.

Keywords: clusters, dimensions, national oil companies, risk culture, risk management

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Authors: Bo-Jian Wu, Si-Heng Wu

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Objectives: Frailty is a condition of a person who has chronic health problems complicated by a loss of physiological reserve and deteriorating functional abilities. The frailty syndrome was defined by Fried and colleagues, i.e., weight loss, fatigue, decreased grip strength, slow gait speed, and low physical activity. However, to our best knowledge, there have been rare studies exploring the prevalence of frailty and its association with falls in patients with schizophrenia. Methods: A total of 559 hospitalized patients were recruited from a public psychiatric hospital in 2013. The majority of the subjects were males (361, 64.6%). The average age was 53.5 years. All patients received the assessment of frailty status defined by Fried and colleagues. The status of a fall within one year after the assessment of frailty, clinical and demographic data was collected from medical records. Logistic regression was used to calculate the odds ratio of associated factors. Results : A total of 9.2% of the participants met the criteria of frailty. The percentage of patients having a fall was 7.2%. Age were significantly associated with frailty (odds ratio = 1.057, 95% confidence interval = 1.025-1.091); however, sex was not associated with frailty (p = 0.17). After adjustment for age and sex, frailty status was associated with a fall (odds ratio = 3.62, 95% confidence interval = 1.58-8.28). Concerning the components of frailty, decreased grip strength (odds ratio = 2.44, 95% confidence interval = 1.16-5.14), slow gait speed (odds ratio = 2.82, 95% confidence interval = 1.21-6.53), and low physical activity (odds ratio = 2.64, 95% confidence interval = 1.21-5.78) were found to be associated with a fall. Conclusions: Our findings suggest the prevalence of frailty was about 10% in hospitalized patients with chronic patients with schizophrenia, and frailty status was significant with a fall in this group. By using the status of frailty, it may be beneficial to potential target candidates having fallen in the future as early as possible. The effective intervention of prevention of further falls may be given in advance. Our results bridge this gap and open a potential avenue for the prevention of falls in patients with schizophrenia. Frailty is certainly an important factor for maintaining wellbeing among these patients.

Keywords: fall, frailty, schizophrenia, Taiwan

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Authors: Pui Yong Leo, Normy Maziah Mohd Said

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Change of global economy landscape and business environment has led to companies’ decision to go global and enter international markets. As the companies go beyond the comfort zone (i.e. investing in the home country), it is important to ensure a comprehensive risk assessment is carried out. This paper describes a standardized approach for international investment, ensuring identification of risk, risk appetite, risk rating, risk treatment and mitigation plans for respective international investment proposal. The standardized approach is divided into three (3) stages as follows: Stage 1 – Preliminary Risk profiling; with the objective to gauge exposure to countries and high level risk factors as first level assessment. Stage 2 – Risk Parameters; with the objective to define risk appetite for the international investment from the perspective of likelihood and impact. Stage 3 – Detailed Risk Assessments; with the objectives to assess in detail any triggered elements from Stage 1, and project specific risks. The final output will include the mitigation plans for the identified risks for the total investment. Example will be given in this paper to show how comprehensive risk assessment is carried out for an international investment in power energy sector.

Keywords: international investment, mitigation plans, risk appetite, risk assessment

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Authors: Xiang Yu, Chuntao Feng, Lu Yang, Meiyang Song, Wenhao Zhou

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The existing two-dimensional micro-Doppler features extraction ignores the correlation information between the spatial and temporal dimension features. For the range-Doppler map, the time dimension is introduced, and a frequency modulation continuous wave (FMCW) radar human fall detection algorithm based on time-varying range-Doppler features is proposed. Firstly, the range-Doppler sequence maps are generated from the echo signals of the continuous motion of the human body collected by the radar. Then the three-dimensional data cube composed of multiple frames of range-Doppler maps is input into the three-dimensional Convolutional Neural Network (3D CNN). The spatial and temporal features of time-varying range-Doppler are extracted by the convolution layer and pool layer at the same time. Finally, the extracted spatial and temporal features are input into the fully connected layer for classification. The experimental results show that the proposed fall detection algorithm has a detection accuracy of 95.66%.

Keywords: FMCW radar, fall detection, 3D CNN, time-varying range-doppler features

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Authors: Godwin Chigozie Okpara

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This paper using standard GARCH, EGARCH, and TARCH models on day of the week return series (of 246 days) from the Nigerian Stock market estimated the model variants’ VaR. An asymmetric return distribution and fat-tail phenomenon in financial time series were considered by estimating the models with normal, student t and generalized error distributions. The analysis based on Akaike Information Criterion suggests that the EGARCH model with student t innovation distribution can furnish more accurate estimate of VaR. In the light of this, we apply the likelihood ratio tests of proportional failure rates to VaR derived from EGARCH model in order to determine the short and long positions VaR performances. The result shows that as alpha ranges from 0.05 to 0.005 for short positions, the failure rate significantly exceeds the prescribed quintiles while it however shows no significant difference between the failure rate and the prescribed quantiles for long positions. This suggests that investors and portfolio managers in the Nigeria stock market have long trading position or can buy assets with concern on when the asset prices will fall. Precisely, the VaR estimates for the long position range from -4.7% for 95 percent confidence level to -10.3% for 99.5 percent confidence level.

Keywords: downside risk, value-at-risk, failure rate, kupiec LR tests, GARCH models

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Authors: Baobao Li

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Operational risk covers all operations of commercial banks and has a close relationship with the bank’s internal control. But in the commercial banks' management practice, internal control is always separated from the operational risk measurement. With the increasing of operational risk events in recent years, operational risk is paid more and more attention by regulators and banks’ managements. The paper first discussed the relationship between internal control and operational risk management and used CVaR-POT model to measure operational risk, and then put forward a modified measurement method (to use operational risk assessment results to modify the measurement results of the CVaR-POT model). The paper also analyzed the necessity and rationality of this method. The method takes into consideration the influence of internal control, improves the accuracy and effectiveness of operational risk measurement and save the economic capital for commercial banks, avoiding the drawbacks of using some mainstream models one-sidedly.

Keywords: commercial banks, internal control, operational risk, risk measurement

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Authors: Rashid Masoud Ali Al-Mazrui, Ramadhani Mashaka Shabani

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Islamic banks and financial institutions are exposed to the same risks as conventional banking. These risks include the rate return risk, credit or market risk, liquidity risk, and operational risk among others. However, being a financial institution that operates Islamic banking and finance operations, there is additional risk associated with its operations different from conventional finance, such as displacing commercial risk. They face Shari'ah compliance risks because of their failure to follow Shari'ah principles. To have proper mitigation and risk management, banks should have proper risk management policies to mitigate risks. This paper aims to study the risk management taken by Islamic banks in comparison with conventional banks. Also, the study evaluates the provisions for risk management taken by selected Islamic banks and conventional banks. The study employs qualitative analysis using secondary data by applying a content analysis approach with a sample size of 4 Islamic banks and four conventional banks ranging from 2010 to 2020. We find that these banks all use the same technique, except for the associated risk. The extra ways are used, but only for additional risks that are available to Islamic banking and finance.

Keywords: emerging risk, risk management, Islamic banking, conventional bank

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Authors: Yilin Liao, Hewen Li, Paula McConvey

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Speed skaters often face a risk of concussion when they fall on the ice floor and impact crash mats during practices and competitive races. Several variables, including those related to the skater, the crash mat, and the impact position (body side/head/feet impact), are believed to influence the severity of the skater's concussion. While computer simulation modeling can be employed to analyze these accidents, the simulation process is time-consuming and does not provide rapid information for coaches and teams to assess the skater's injury risk in competitive events. This research paper promotes the exploration of the feasibility of using AI techniques for evaluating skater’s potential concussion severity, and to develop a fast concussion prediction tool using artificial neural networks to reduce the risk of treatment delays for injured skaters. The primary data is collected through virtual tests and physical experiments designed to simulate skater-mat impact. It is then analyzed to identify patterns and correlations; finally, it is used to train and fine-tune the artificial neural networks for accurate prediction. The development of the prediction tool by employing machine learning strategies contributes to the application of AI methods in sports science and has theoretical involvements for using AI techniques in predicting and preventing sports-related injuries.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, concussion, machine learning, impact, speed skater

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Authors: Cinzia Carrodano, Dimitri Konstantas

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Risk is part of our lives. In today’s society risk is connected to our safety and safety has become a major priority in our life. Each person lives his/her life based on the evaluation of the risk he/she is ready to accept and sustain, and the level of safety he/she wishes to reach, based on highly personal criteria. The assessment of risk a person takes in a complex environment and the impact of actions of other people’actions and events on our perception of risk are alements to be considered. The concept of Holistic Risk Assessment (HRA) aims in developing a methodology and a model that will allow us to take into account elements outside the direct influence of the individual, and provide a personalized risk assessment. The concept is based on the fact that in the near future, we will be able to gather and process extremely large amounts of data about an individual and his/her environment in real time. The interaction and correlation of these data is the key element of the holistic risk assessment. In this paper, we present the HRA concept and describe the most important elements and considerations.

Keywords: continuous data, dynamic risk, holistic risk assessment, risk concept

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Authors: Olaniyi O. Omoyajowo

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To be successful in today’s competitive global environment, manufacturing industry must be able to respond quickly to changes in technology. These changes in technology introduce new risks and hazards. The management of risk/hazard in a manufacturing process recommends method through which the success rate of an organization can be increased. Thus, there is a continual need for manufacturing industries to invest significant amount of resources in risk management, which in turn optimizes the production output and profitability of any manufacturing industry (if implemented properly). To help improve the existing risk prevention and mitigation practices in Small and Medium Enterprise (SME) in Nigeria Manufacturing Industries (NMI), the researcher embarks on this research to develop a systematic Risk Management process.

Keywords: manufacturing management, risk, risk management, SMEs

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Authors: Phontip Kanlahasuth

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This paper presents the environmental safety and occupational health risk assessment of rocket static test by assessing risk level from probability and severity and then appropriately applying the risk control measures. Before the environmental safety and occupational health measures are applied, the serious hazards level is 31%, medium level is 24% and low level is 45%. Once risk control measures are practically implemented, the serious hazard level can be diminished, medium level is 38%, low level is 45% and eliminated level is 17%. It is clearly shown that the environmental safety and occupational health measures can significantly reduce the risk level.

Keywords: rocket static test, hazard, risk, risk assessment, risk analysis, environment, safety, occupational health, acceptable risk, probability, severity, risk level

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Authors: Saadia Drissi

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The cloud computing is an innovative paradigm that introduces several changes in technology that have resulted a new ways for cloud providers to deliver their services to cloud consumers mainly in term of security risk assessment, thus, adapting a current risk assessment tools to cloud computing is a very difficult task due to its several characteristics that challenge the effectiveness of risk assessment approaches. As consequence, there is a need of risk assessment model adapted to cloud computing. This paper requires a new risk assessment model based on multi-agent system and AHP model as fundamental steps towards the development of flexible risk assessment approach regarding cloud consumers.

Keywords: cloud computing, risk assessment model, multi-agent system, AHP model, cloud consumer

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Authors: Francis Edum-Fotwe, Tony Thorpe, Charles Afetornu

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Risk perception informs the outcome of how issues are responded to in either solving or overcoming a problem or improving a situation. Risk perception is established to be affected by some key factors reflecting in the varying ways in which work is done as well as the level of efficiency achieved. These factors potentially would influence risk perception to different extents. Such that if these factors are said to determine risk perception, how does a change in any affect risk perception. Since the ability to address risk is influenced by risk perception, establishing and developing awareness of that perception should enable construction professionals to make viable decisions. Any act to improve the construction industry cannot be overemphasised, considering its contribution to national development. A survey questionnaire was conducted in Ghana to elicit data that measures the risk perception and the essential factors as well as the necessary demographics of the respondents, who are construction professionals. This study finds out the sensitivity of the critical factors of risk perception. It uses the Relative Importance Index analysis tool to investigate the differential effect of these essential factors on risk perception, such that a slight change in a factor makes a significant change in risk perception, having established that it is influenced by essential factors. The findings can lead to policy formation for employers on the prioritisation factors to undertake to improve the risk perception of employees. Other areas in which this study can be useful in team formation for sensitive and complex projects where efficient risk management is critical.

Keywords: construction industry, risk, risk management, risk perception

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Authors: Mohamed Anouar Razgallah

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This paper examines in the context of a one-period model the impact of background risk on the optimal secondary prevention. We conduct our study based on various configurations of the background risk. We intend to show that in most cases the level of secondary prevention effort varied after the introduction of background risk, however, in very few cases this level remains constant.

Keywords: secondary prevention, primary prevention, background risk, ecomomics

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Authors: Hossein Kheirollahi, Yunhua Luo

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Studying stress and strain trends in the femur and recognizing femur failure mechanism is very important for preventing hip fracture in the elderly. The aim of this study was to identify high stress and strain regions in the femur during normal walking and falling to find the mechanical behavior and failure mechanism of the femur. We developed a finite element model of the femur from the subject’s quantitative computed tomography (QCT) image and used it to identify potentially high stress and strain regions during the single-leg stance and the sideways fall. It was found that fracture may initiate from the superior region of femoral neck and propagate to the inferior region during a high impact force such as sideways fall. The results of this study showed that the femur bone is more sensitive to strain than stress which indicates the effect of strain, in addition to effect of stress, should be considered for failure analysis.

Keywords: finite element analysis, hip fracture, strain, stress

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Authors: Kai Way Li, Lang Gan

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Slip &Fall are common in Taiwan. They could result in injuries and even fatalities. Official statistics indicate that more than 15% of all occupational incidences were slip/fall related. All the workers in Taiwan are required by the law to join the worker’s insurance program administered by the Bureau of Labor Insurance (BLI). The BLI is a government agency under the supervision of the Ministry of Labor. Workers claim with the BLI for insurance compensations when they suffer fatalities or injuries at work. Injuries statistics based on worker’s compensation claims were rarely studied. The objective of this study was to quantify the injury statistics and financial cost due to slip-fall incidences based on the BLI compensation records. Compensation records in the BLI during 2007 to 2013 were retrieved. All the original application forms, approval opinions, results for worker’s compensations were in hardcopy and were stored in the BLI warehouses. Xerox copies of the claims, excluding the personal information of the applicants (or the victim if passed away), were obtained. The content in the filing forms were coded in an Excel worksheet for further analyses. Descriptive statistics were performed to analyze the data. There were a total of 35,024 claims including 82 deaths, 878 disabilities, and 34,064 injuries/illnesses which were slip/fall related. It was found that the average losses for the death cases were 40 months. The total dollar amount for these cases paid was 86,913,195 NTD. For the disability cases, the average losses were 367.36 days. The total dollar amount for these cases paid was almost 2.6 times of those for the death cases (233,324,004 NTD). For the injury/illness cases, the average losses for the illness cases were 58.78 days. The total dollar amount for these cases paid was approximately 13 times of those of the death cases (1134,850,821 NTD). For the applicants/victims, 52.3% were males. There were more males than females for the deaths, disability, and injury/illness cases. Most (57.8%) of the female victims were between 45 to 59 years old. Most of the male victims (62.6%) were, on the other hand, between 25 to 39 years old. Most of the victims were in manufacturing industry (26.41%), next the construction industry (22.20%), and next the retail industry (13.69%). For the fatality cases, head injury was the main problem for immediate or eventual death (74.4%). For the disability case, foot (17.46%) and knee (9.05%) injuries were the leading problems. The compensation claims other than fatality and disability were mainly associated with injuries of the foot (18%), hand (12.87%), knee (10.42%), back (8.83%), and shoulder (6.77%). The slip/fall cases studied indicate that the ratios among the death, disability, and injury/illness counts were 1:10:415. The ratios of dollar amount paid by the BLI for the three categories were 1:2.6:13. Such results indicate the significance of slip-fall incidences resulting in different severity. Such information should be incorporated in to slip-fall prevention program in industry.

Keywords: epidemiology, slip and fall, social burden, workers’ compensation

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Authors: Charles Amoatey

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The issue of risk in the mining industry is a global phenomenon and the Ghanaian mining industry is not exempted. The main purpose of this study is to identify the critical risk factors affecting the mining industry. The study takes an integrated view of the mining industry by examining the contribution of various risk factors to mining project failure in Ghana. A questionnaire survey was conducted to solicit the critical risk factors from key mining practitioners. About 80 respondents from 11 mining firms participated in the survey. The study identified 22 risk factors contributing to mining project failure in Ghana. The five most critical risk factors based on both probability of occurrence and impact were: (1) unstable commodity prices, (2) inflation/exchange rate, (3) land degradation, (4) high cost of living and (5) government bureaucracy for obtaining licenses. Furthermore, the study found that risk assessment in the mining sector has a direct link with mining project sustainability. Mitigation measures for addressing the identified risk factors were discussed. The key findings emphasize the need for a comprehensive risk management culture in the entire mining industry.

Keywords: risk, assessment, mining, Ghana

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Authors: Jolanta Tamošaitienė

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The article focuses on a developed comprehensive model to be used in an agile environment for the risk assessment and selection based on multi-attribute methods. The model is based on a multi-attribute evaluation of risk in construction, and the determination of their optimality criterion values are calculated using complex Multiple Criteria Decision-Making methods. The model may be further applied to risk assessment in an agile construction environment. The attributes of risk in a construction project are selected by applying the risk assessment condition to the construction sector, and the construction process efficiency in the construction industry accounts for the agile environment. The paper presents the comprehensive risk assessment model in an agile construction environment. It provides a background and a description of the proposed model and the developed analysis of the comprehensive risk assessment model in an agile construction environment with the criteria.

Keywords: assessment, environment, agile, model, risk

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Authors: Elvis Enowbeyang Tarkang

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Background: Since students in high schools in Cameroon fall within the age group hardest hit by HIV/AIDS, it is assumed that these students might be exposed to sexual risk behaviours. Sexual risk behaviours include engaging in unprotected sexual intercourse, early sexual debut, multiple sexual partners and coerced or forced sex, and these behaviours might predispose youth to HIV transmission. However, little has been explored on the sexual risk behaviours of high school learners in Cameroon. This study aimed at examining the sexual risk behaviours of high school students in an urban town of Cameroon. Method: A quantitative cross sectional design was adopted, using a self-administered questionnaire to collect data from a disproportional stratified simple random sample of 480 (240 male and 240 female) grade 10 to grade 12 students from two participating secondary school in Limbe in the Southwest region of Cameroon August 2014. Descriptive and Chi square statistics were calculated using statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) version 20 software program at the level 0.05. Results: Majority of the respondents, 63.4% reported being sexually active, of whom only 33.2% used condoms consistently. Up to 37% of the sexually active respondents had multiple sexual partners in the past one year before the study, while 23% had multiple sexual partners during the study period. The mean age of first sex was 15.4 years. Among Christians, Pentecostals, 17 (58.6%) were more likely to have experienced sexual coercion than non-Pentecostals, 111 (42.2%) (p= 0.000). Christians, 41 (10.3%) were more likely to have been forced into first sex than Muslims, 0 (0.0%); while among the Christians, Pentecostals, 6 (15.0%) were more likely to have been forced into first sex than non-Pentecostals, 35 (10.9%) (p=0.004). Among the Christians, Pentecostals, 16 (66.7%) were more likely to have experienced sex by age 16 years than non-Pentecostals, 125 (64.1%) (p= 0.000). Students who lived in rented places, 32 (22.7%) were more likely to have had multiple sexual partners than those who lived in their parents’ houses, 35 (18.1%) (p= 0.000). Males, 36 (16.0%) were likely to have had multiple concurrent sexual partners than females, 14 (6.0%) (p=0.002). Students who used condoms consistently, 25 (33.3%) were more likely to have a higher perception of risk of contracting HIV than those who did not use condoms consistently, 38 (29.9%) (p=0.002). Students who lived in their parents’ houses, 35 (35.4%) were more likely to use condoms consistently during sex, than those who lived in rented places, 31 (29.8%) (p=0.021). Students who passed their examinations, 57 (30.9%) were more likely to have used condoms consistently than those with low academic profiles, 24 (27.9%) (p= 0.034). Conclusions and Recommendations: Gender, lack of parental control, religion, academic profile, poverty, place of residence and perception of risk of HIV infection were the main factors associated with sexual risk behaviours among students in urban Cameroon. The findings indicate that sexual risk behaviours exist among high school students in Limbe urban town of Cameroon. There is need for campaigns and interventions to bring about sexual behaviour change.

Keywords: Cameroon, high school students, HIV/AIDS, Limbe urban town, sexual risk behaviours

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Authors: Shumaila Zeb

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The proposed study aims to investigate insolvency risk of commercial banks of Pakistan. Furthermore, it empirically estimates the effect of already implemented financial regulations on the insolvency risk of banks. To carry out the empirical analysis, a balanced bank-level panel data covering the period 2008-2016 is used. The Z-score is used for calculating the insolvency risk of each bank. The panel regression is used to investigate the relationship between financial regulations and insolvency risk of banks. The empirics reveal that the financial regulations enforced by State Bank of Pakistan have significant impacts on the insolvency risk of banks. The results further indicate that loan ratio and reserve ratio are positively and significantly related to the insolvency risk of banks.

Keywords: insolvency risk, Z-score, financial regulations, banks

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Authors: Ahmet Parlak, Celalettin Bilgen

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In order to create an effective early warning system, Identification of the risks, preparation and carrying out risk modeling of risk scenarios, taking into account the shortcomings of the old disaster scenarios should be used to improve the system. In the light of this, the importance of risk modeling in creating an effective early warning system is understood. In the scope of TAFRISK project risk modeling trend analysis report on risk modeling developed and a demonstration was conducted for Risk Modeling for flood and mass movements. For risk modeling R&D, studies have been conducted to determine the information, and source of the information, to be gathered, to develop algorithms and to adapt the current algorithms to Turkey’s conditions for determining the risk score in the high disaster risk areas. For each type of the disaster; Disaster Deficit Index (DDI), Local Disaster Index (LDI), Prevalent Vulnerability Index (PVI), Risk Management Index (RMI) have been developed as disaster indices taking danger, sensitivity, fragility, and vulnerability, the physical and economic damage into account in the appropriate scale of the respective type.

Keywords: disaster, hazard, risk modeling, sensor

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Authors: Shailendra Kumar, Lokesh Kashyap, Puneet Khanna, Nishant Patel, Rakesh Kumar, Arshad Ayub, Kelika Prakash, Yudhyavir Singh, Krithikabrindha V.

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Introduction: Spinal anesthesia is considered a standard anesthesia technique for caesarean delivery. The incidence of spinal hypotension during caesarean delivery is 70 -80%. Spinal hypotension may cause cerebral hypoperfusion in the mother, but physiologically cerebral autoregulatory mechanisms accordingly prevent cerebral hypoxia. Cerebral blood flow remains constant in the 50-150 mmHg of Cerebral Perfusion Pressure (CPP) range. Near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) is a non-invasive technology that is used to detect Cerebral Desaturation Events (CDEs) immediately compared to other conventional intraoperative monitoring techniques. Objective: The primary aim of the study is to correlate the change in cerebral oxygen saturation using NIRS with respect to a fall in mean blood pressure after spinal anaesthesia and to find out the effects of spinal hypotension on neonatal APGAR score, neonatal acid-base variations, and presence of Postoperative Delirium (POD). Methodology: NIRS sensors were attached to the forehead of all the patients, and their baseline readings of cerebral oxygenation on the right and left frontal regions and mean blood pressure were noted. Subarachnoid block was given with hyperbaric 0.5% bupivacaine plus fentanyl, the dose being determined by the individual anaesthesiologist. Co-loading of IV crystalloid solutions was given to the patient. Blood pressure reading and cerebral saturation were recorded every 1 minute till 30min. Hypotension was a fall in MAP less than 20% of the baseline values. Patients going for hypotension were treated with an IV Bolus of phenylephrine/ephedrine. Umbilical cord blood samples were taken for blood gas analysis, and neonatal APGAR was noted by a neonatologist. Study design: A prospective observational study conducted in a population of Thirty ASA 2 and 3 parturients scheduled for lower segment caesarean section (LSCS). Results: Mean fall in regional cerebral saturation is 28.48 ± 14.7% with respect to the mean fall in blood pressure 38.92 ± 8.44 mm Hg. The correlation coefficient between fall in saturation and fall in mean blood pressure is 0.057, and p-value {0.7} after subarachnoid block. A fall in regional cerebral saturation occurred 2±1 min before a fall in mean blood pressure. Twenty-nine out of thirty patients required vasopressors during hypotension. The first dose of vasopressor requirement is needed at 6.02±2 min after the block. The mean APGAR score was 7.86 and 9.74 at 1 and 5 min of birth, respectively, and the mean umbilical arterial pH of 7.3±0.1. According to DRS-98 (Delirium Rating Scale), the mean delirium rating score on postoperative day 1 and day 2 were 0.1 and 0.7, respectively. Discussion: There was a fall in regional cerebral oxygen saturation, which started before with respect to a significant fall in mean blood pressure readings but was statistically not significant. Maximal fall in blood pressure requiring vasopressors occurs within 10 min of SAB. Neonatal APGAR scores and acid-base variations were in the normal range with maternal hypotension, and there was no incidence of postoperative delirium in patients with post-spinal hypotension.

Keywords: cerebral oxygenation, LSCS, NIRS, spinal hypotension

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Authors: Christo Februanto Putra

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This paper presents risk identification that affects investment feasibility on toll road infrastructure in Indonesia using qualitative methods survey based on the expert practitioner in investor, contractor, and state officials. The problems on infrastructure investment in Indonesia, especially on KPBU model contract, is many risk factors in the investment plan is not calculated in detail thoroughly. Risk factor is a value used to provide an overview of the risk level assessment of an event which is a function of the probability of the occurrence and the consequences of the risks that arise. As results of the survey which is to show which risk factors impacts directly to the investment feasibility and rank them by their impacts on the investment.

Keywords: risk identification, indonesia toll road, investment feasibility

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Authors: Janusz K. Grabara, Bartłomiej Okwiet, Sebastian Kot

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The purpose of the article is presentation and analysis of the aspect of job security in small and medium-size enterprises in Poland with reference to other EU countries. We show the theoretical aspects of the risk with reference to managing small and medium enterprises, next risk management in small and medium enterprises in Poland, which were subjected to a detailed analysis. We show in detail the risk associated with the operation of the mentioned above companies, as well as analyses its levels on various stages and for different kinds of conducted activity.

Keywords: job safety, SME, work risk, risk management

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Authors: Jeena R. S., Sukesh Kumar A.

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Stroke is one of the major reasons of adult disability and morbidity in many of the developing countries like India. Early diagnosis of stroke is essential for timely prevention and cure. Various conventional statistical methods and computational intelligent models have been developed for predicting the risk and outcome of stroke. This research work focuses on a multilevel approach for predicting the occurrence of stroke based on various risk factors and invasive techniques like retinal imaging. This risk prediction model can aid in clinical decision making and help patients to have an improved and reliable risk prediction.

Keywords: prediction, retinal imaging, risk factors, stroke

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Authors: Nan Ding, Motoki Shino, Nobuyasu Tomokuni, Genki Murata

Abstract:

The wheelchair is the major means of transport for physically disabled people. However, it cannot overcome architectural barriers such as curbs and stairs. In this paper, the authors proposed a method to avoid falling down of a wheeled inverted pendulum type robotic wheelchair for climbing stairs. The problem of this system is that the feedback gain of the wheels cannot be set high due to modeling errors and gear backlash, which results in the movement of wheels. Therefore, the wheels slide down the stairs or collide with the side of the stairs, and finally the wheelchair falls down. To avoid falling down, the authors proposed a slider control strategy based on skyhook model in order to decrease the movement of wheels, and a rotary link control strategy based on the staircase dimensions in order to avoid collision or slide down. The effectiveness of the proposed fall avoidance control strategy was validated by ODE simulations and the prototype wheelchair.

Keywords: EPW, fall avoidance control, skyhook, wheeled inverted pendulum

Procedia PDF Downloads 308

Authors: Mohammad Ali Hasanzadeh, Thierry Van Elslander, Eddy Van De Voorde

Abstract:

About 90 percent of world merchandise trade by volume being carried by sea. Maritime transport remains as back bone behind the international trade and globalization meanwhile all seaborne goods need using at least two ports as origin and destination. Amid seaborne traded cargos, container traffic is a prosperous market with about 16% in terms of volume. Albeit containerized cargos are less in terms of tonnage but, containers carry the highest value cargos amongst all. That is why efficient handling of containers in ports is very important. Accidents are the foremost causes that lead to port inefficiency and a surge in total transport cost. Having different port safety management systems (PSMS) in place, statistics on port accidents show that numerous accidents occur in ports. Some of them claim peoples’ life; others damage goods, vessels, port equipment and/or the environment. Several accident investigation illustrate that the most common accidents take place throughout transport operation, it sometimes accounts for 68.6% of all events, therefore providing a safer workplace depends on reducing collision risk. In order to quantify risks at the port area different variables can be used as exposure measurement. One of the main motives for defining and using exposure in studies related to infrastructure is to account for the differences in intensity of use, so as to make comparisons meaningful. In various researches related to handling containers in ports and intermodal terminals, different risk exposures and also the likelihood of each event have been selected. Vehicle collision within the port area (10-7 per kilometer of vehicle distance travelled) and dropping containers from cranes, forklift trucks, or rail mounted gantries (1 x 10-5 per lift) are some examples. According to the objective of the current research, three categories of accidents selected for collision risk assessment; fall of container during ship to shore operation, dropping container during transfer operation and collision between vehicles and objects within terminal area. Later on various consequences, exposure and probability identified for each accident. Hence, reducing collision risks profoundly rely on picking the right risk exposures and probability of selected accidents, to prevent collision accidents in container terminals and in the framework of risk calculations, such risk exposures and probabilities can be useful in assessing the effectiveness of safety programs in ports.

Keywords: container terminal, collision, seaborne trade, risk exposure, risk probability

Procedia PDF Downloads 343

Authors: Alexander Marx

Abstract:

Measuring and mitigating market risk is essential for the stability of enterprises, especially for major banking corporations and investment bank firms. To employ these risk measurement and mitigation processes, the Value at Risk (VaR) is the most commonly used risk metric by practitioners. In the past years, we have seen significant weaknesses in the predictive performance of the VaR in times of financial market crisis. To address this issue, the purpose of this study is to investigate the value-at-risk (VaR) estimation models and their predictive performance by applying a series of backtesting methods on the stock market indices of the G7 countries (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, US, Europe). The study employs parametric, non-parametric, and semi-parametric VaR estimation models and is conducted during three different periods which cover the most recent financial market crisis: the overall period (2006–2022), the global financial crisis period (2008–2009), and COVID-19 period (2020–2022). Since the regulatory authorities have introduced and mandated the Conditional Value at Risk (Expected Shortfall) as an additional regulatory risk management metric, the study will analyze and compare both risk metrics on their predictive performance.

Keywords: value at risk, financial market risk, banking, quantitative risk management

Procedia PDF Downloads 50

Authors: Mueller Jann, Hoffmann Christian Hugo

Abstract:

Conventional quantitative risk management in banking is a risk factor of its own, because it rests on assumptions such as independence and availability of data which do not hold when rare events of extreme consequences are involved. There is a growing recognition of the need for alternative risk measures that do not make these assumptions. We propose a novel method for modeling the risk associated with investment products, in particular derivatives, by using a formal language for specifying financial contracts. Expressions in this language are interpreted in the category of values annotated with (a formal representation of) uncertainty. The choice of uncertainty formalism thus becomes a parameter of the model, so it can be adapted to the particular application and it is not constrained to classical probabilities. We demonstrate our approach using a simple logic-based uncertainty model and a case study in which we assess the risk of counter party default in a portfolio of collateralized loans.

Keywords: risk model, uncertainty monad, derivatives, contract algebra

Procedia PDF Downloads 544