Search results for: evidence synthesis

Authors: Fouzia Khanam, Belal Hossain, Kaosar Afsana, Mahfuzar Rahman

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Aim: Although cardiovascular diseases (CVD) has already been recognized as a major cause of death in developed countries, its prevalence is rising in developing countries as well, and engendering a challenge for the health sector. Bangladesh has experienced an epidemiological transition from communicable to non-communicable diseases over the last few decades. So, the rising prevalence of CVD and its risk factors are imposing a major problem for the country. We aimed to examine the prevalence of CVDs and socioeconomic and lifestyle factors related to it from a population-based survey. Methods: The data used for this study were collected as a part of a large-scale cross-sectional study conducted to explore the overall health status of children, mothers and senior citizens of Bangladesh. Multistage cluster random sampling procedure was applied by considering unions as clusters and households as the primary sampling unit to select a total of 11,428 households for the base survey. Present analysis encompassed 12338 respondents of ≥ 35 years, selected from both rural areas and urban slums of the country. Socio-economic, demographic and lifestyle information were obtained through individual by a face-to-face interview which was noted in ODK platform. And height, weight, blood pressure and glycosuria were measured using standardized methods. Chi-square test, Univariate modified Poisson regression model, and multivariate modified Poisson regression model were done using STATA software (version 13.0) for analysis. Results: Overall, the prevalence of CVD was 4.51%, of which 1.78% had stroke and 3.17% suffered from heart diseases. Male had higher prevalence of stroke (2.20%) than their counterparts (1.37%). Notably, thirty percent of respondents had high blood pressure and 5% population had diabetes and more than half of the population was pre-hypertensive. Additionally, 20% were overweight, 77% were smoker or consumed smokeless tobacco and 28% of respondents were physically inactive. Eighty-two percent of respondents took extra salt while eating and 29% of respondents had deprived sleep. Furthermore, the prevalence of risk factor of CVD varied according to gender. Women had a higher prevalence of overweight, obesity and diabetes. Women were also less physically active compared to men and took more extra salt. Smoking was lower in women compared to men. Moreover, women slept less compared to their counterpart. After adjusting confounders in modified Poisson regression model, age, gender, occupation, wealth quintile, BMI, extra salt intake, daily sleep, tiredness, diabetes, and hypertension remained as risk factors for CVD. Conclusion: The prevalence of CVD is significant in Bangladesh, and there is an evidence of rising trend for its risk factors such as hypertension, diabetes especially in older population, women and high-income groups. Therefore, in this current epidemiological transition, immediate public health intervention is warranted to address the overwhelming CVD risk.

Keywords: cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, hypertension, stroke

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Authors: Cristina Chaminade, Mandar Kulkarni, Balaji Parthasarathy, Monica Plechero

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The characteristics of a regional innovation system (RIS) and the specificity of the knowledge base of an industry may contribute to create peculiar paths for innovation and development of firms’ geographic extended innovation networks. However, the relative empirical evidence in emerging economies remains underexplored. The paper aims to fill the research gap by means of some recent qualitative research conducted in 2016 in Beijing (China) and Bangalore (India). It analyzes cases studies of firms in the new media industry, a sector that merges different IT competences with competences from other knowledge domains and that is emerging in those RIS. The results show that while in Beijing the new media sector results to be more in line with the existing institutional setting and governmental goals aimed at targeting specific social aspects and social problems of the population, in Bangalore it remains a more spontaneous firms-led process. In Beijing what matters for the development of innovation networks is the governmental setting and the national and regional strategies to promote science and technology in this sector, internet and mass innovation. The peculiarities of recent governmental policies aligned to the domestic goals may provide good possibilities for start-ups to develop innovation networks. However, due to the specificities of those policies targeting the Chinese market, networking outside the domestic market are not so promoted. Moreover, while some institutional peculiarities, such as a culture of collaboration in the region, may be favorable for local networking, regulations related to Internet censorship may limit the use of global networks particularly when based on virtual spaces. Mainly firms with already some foreign experiences and contact take advantage of global networks. In Bangalore, the role of government in pushing networking for the new media industry at the present stage is quite absent at all geographical levels. Indeed there is no particular strategic planning or prioritizing in the region toward the new media industry, albeit one industrial organization has emerged to represent the animation industry interests. This results in a lack of initiatives for sustaining the integration of complementary knowledge into the local portfolio of IT specialization. Firms actually involved in the new media industry face institutional constrains related to a poor level of local trust and cooperation, something that does not allow for full exploitation of local linkages. Moreover, knowledge-provider organizations in Bangalore remain still a solid base for the IT domain, but not for other domains. Initiatives to link to international networks seem therefore more the result of individual entrepreneurial actions aimed at acquiring complementary knowledge and competencies from different domains and exploiting potentiality in different markets. From those cases, it emerges that role of government, soft institutions and organizations in the two RIS differ substantially in the creation of barriers and opportunities for the development of innovation networks and their specific aim.

Keywords: regional innovation system, emerging economies, innovation network, institutions, organizations, Bangalore, Beijing

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Authors: Miranda E. Karban

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A distinctive pattern of occipital squama convexity, known as the occipital bun or chignon, has traditionally been considered a derived Neandertal trait. However, some early modern and extant Homo sapiens share similar occipital bone morphology, showing pronounced internal and external occipital squama curvature and paralambdoidal flattening. It has been posited that these morphological patterns are homologous in the two groups, but this claim remains disputed. Many developmental hypotheses have been proposed, including assertions that the chignon represents a developmental response to a long and narrow cranial vault, a narrow or flexed basicranium, or a prognathic face. These claims, however, remain to be metrically quantified in a large subadult sample, and little is known about the feature’s developmental, functional, or evolutionary significance. This study assesses patterns of chignon development and covariation in a comparative sample of extant human growth study cephalograms. Cephalograms from a total of 549 European-derived North American subjects (286 male, 263 female) were scored on a 5-stage ranking system of chignon prominence. Occipital squama shape was found to exist along a continuum, with 34 subjects (6.19%) possessing defined chignons, and 54 subjects (9.84%) possessing very little occipital squama convexity. From this larger sample, those subjects represented by a complete radiographic series were selected for metric analysis. Measurements were collected from lateral and posteroanterior (PA) cephalograms of 26 subjects (16 male, 10 female), each represented at 3 longitudinal age groups. Age group 1 (range: 3.0-6.0 years) includes subjects during a period of rapid brain growth. Age group 2 (range: 8.0-9.5 years) includes subjects during a stage in which brain growth has largely ceased, but cranial and facial development continues. Age group 3 (range: 15.9-20.4 years) includes subjects at their adult stage. A total of 16 landmarks and 153 sliding semi-landmarks were digitized at each age point, and geometric morphometric analyses, including relative warps analysis and two-block partial least squares analysis, were conducted to study covariation patterns between midsagittal occipital bone shape and other aspects of craniofacial morphology. A convex occipital squama was found to covary significantly with a low, elongated neurocranial vault, and this pattern was found to exist from the youngest age group. Other tested patterns of covariation, including cranial and basicranial breadth, basicranial angle, midcoronal cranial vault shape, and facial prognathism, were not found to be significant at any age group. These results suggest that the chignon, at least in this sample, should not be considered an independent feature, but rather the result of developmental interactions relating to neurocranial elongation. While more work must be done to quantify chignon morphology in fossil subadults, this study finds no evidence to disprove the developmental homology of the feature in modern humans and Neandertals.

Keywords: chignon, craniofacial covariation, human cranial development, longitudinal growth study, occipital bun

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Authors: Rishana Bilimoria, Selina Tang, Sajni Shah, Marianne Henien, Christopher Sproat

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Temporomandibular disorders (TMD) may affect up to a third of the general population, and there is evidence demonstrating the majority of Myofascial TMD cases improve after education and conservative measures. In 2015 our department implemented a modified care pathway for myofascial TMD patients in an attempt to improve the patient journey. This involved the use of an interactive group therapy approach to deliver education, reinforce conservative measures and promote self-management. Patient reported experience measures from the new group clinic revealed 71% patient satisfaction. This service is efficient in improving aspects of health status while reducing health-care costs and redistributing clinical time. Since its’ establishment, 52 hours of clinical time, resources and funding have been redirected effectively. This Quality Improvement Project was initiated because it was felt that this new service was being underutilised by our surgical teams. The ‘Plan-Do-Study-Act cycle’ (PDSA) framework was employed to analyse utilisation of the service: The ‘plan’ stage involved outlining our aims: to raise awareness amongst clinicians of the unified care pathway and to increase referral to this clinic. The ‘do’ stage involved collecting data from a sample of 96 patients over 4 month period to ascertain the proportion of Myofascial TMD patients who were correctly referred to the designated clinic. ‘Suitable’ patients who weren’t referred were identified. The ‘Study’ phase involved analysis of results, which revealed that 77% of suitable patients weren’t referred to the designated clinic. They were reviewed on other clinics, which are often overbooked, or managed by junior staff members. This correlated with our original prediction. Barriers to referral included: lack of awareness of the clinic, individual consultant treatment preferences and patient, reluctance to be referred to a ‘group’ clinic. The ‘Act’ stage involved presenting our findings to the team at a clinical governance meeting. This included demonstration of the clinical effectiveness of the care-pathway and explaining the referral route and criteria. In light of the evaluation results, it was decided to keep the group clinic and maximize utilisation. The second cycle of data collection following these changes revealed that of 66 Myofascial TMD patients over a 4 month period, only 9% of suitable patients were not seen via the designated pathway; therefore this QIP was successful in meeting the set objectives. Overall, employing the PDSA cycle in this QIP resulted in appropriate utilisation of the modified care pathway for patients with myofascial TMD in Guy’s Oral Surgery Department. In turn, this leads to high patient satisfaction with the service and effectively redirected 52 hours of clinical time. It permitted adoption of a collaborative working style with oral surgery colleagues to investigate problems, identify solutions, and collectively raise standards of clinical care to ensure we adopt a unified care pathway in secondary care management of Myofascial TMD patients.

Keywords: myofascial, quality Improvement, PDSA, TMD

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Authors: William Ho, Agus Wicaksana

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Anecdotal evidence in the last decade shows that the occurrence of disruptive events and uncertainties in the supply chain is increasing. The coupling of these events with the nature of an increasingly complex and interdependent business environment leads to devastating impacts that quickly propagate within and across organizations. For example, the recent COVID-19 pandemic increased the global supply chain disruption frequency by at least 20% in 2020 and is projected to have an accumulative cost of $13.8 trillion by 2024. This crisis raises attention to organizational resilience to weather business uncertainty. However, the concept has been criticized for being vague and lacking a consistent definition, thus reducing the significance of the concept for practice and research. This study is intended to solve that issue by providing a comprehensive review of the conceptualization, measurement, and antecedents of operational resilience that have been discussed in the supply chain risk management literature (SCRM). We performed a Scholarly Network Analysis, combining citation-based and text-based approaches, on 252 articles published from 2000 to 2021 in top-tier journals based on three parameters: AJG ranking and ABS ranking, UT Dallas and FT50 list, and editorial board review. We utilized a hybrid scholarly network analysis by combining citation-based and text-based approaches to understand the conceptualization, measurement, and antecedents of operational resilience in the SCRM literature. Specifically, we employed a Bibliographic Coupling Analysis in the research cluster formation stage and a Co-words Analysis in the research cluster interpretation and analysis stage. Our analysis reveals three major research clusters of resilience research in the SCRM literature, namely (1) supply chain network design and optimization, (2) organizational capabilities, and (3) digital technologies. We portray the research process in the last two decades in terms of the exemplar studies, problems studied, commonly used approaches and theories, and solutions provided in each cluster. We then provide a conceptual framework on the conceptualization and antecedents of resilience based on studies in these clusters and highlight potential areas that need to be studied further. Finally, we leverage the concept of abnormal operating performance to propose a new measurement strategy for resilience. This measurement overcomes the limitation of most current measurements that are event-dependent and focus on the resistance or recovery stage - without capturing the growth stage. In conclusion, this study provides a robust literature review through a scholarly network analysis that increases the completeness and accuracy of research cluster identification and analysis to understand conceptualization, antecedents, and measurement of resilience. It also enables us to perform a comprehensive review of resilience research in SCRM literature by including research articles published during the pandemic and connects this development with a plethora of articles published in the last two decades. From the managerial perspective, this study provides practitioners with clarity on the conceptualization and critical success factors of firm resilience from the SCRM perspective.

Keywords: supply chain risk management, organizational resilience, scholarly network analysis, systematic literature review

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Authors: Bruno Biagianti, Angela Tseng, Kathy Wannaviroj, Allison Corlett, Megan DuBois, Kyu Lee, Suma Jacob

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Background: ASD is characterized by pervasive Sensory Processing Abnormalities (SPA) and social cognitive deficits that persist throughout the course of the illness and have been linked to functional abnormalities in specific neural systems that underlie the perception, processing, and representation of sensory information. SPA and social cognitive deficits are associated with difficulties in interpersonal relationships, poor development of social skills, reduced social interactions and lower academic performance. Importantly, they can hamper the effects of established evidence-based psychological treatments—including PEERS (Program for the Education and Enrichment of Relationship Skills), a parent/caregiver-assisted, 16-weeks social skills intervention—which nonetheless requires a functional brain capable of assimilating and retaining information and skills. As a matter of fact, some adolescents benefit from PEERS more than others, calling for strategies to increase treatment response rates. Objective: We will present interim data on CICADAS (Care Improving Cognition for ADolescents on the Autism Spectrum)—a clinician-assisted, closed-loop technology mobile application for adolescents with ASD. Via ten mobile assessments, CICADAS captures data on sensory processing abnormalities and associated cognitive deficits. These data populate a machine learning algorithm that tailors the delivery of ten neuroplasticity-based social cognitive training (NB-SCT) exercises targeting sensory processing abnormalities. Methods: In collaboration with the Autism Spectrum and Neurodevelopmental Disorders Clinic at the University of Minnesota, we conducted a fully remote, three-arm, randomized crossover trial with adolescents with ASD to document the acceptability of CICADAS and evaluate its potential as a stand-alone treatment or as a treatment enhancer of PEERS. Twenty-four adolescents with ASD (ages 11-18) have been initially randomized to 16 weeks of PEERS + CICADAS (Arm A) vs. 16 weeks of PEERS + computer games vs. 16 weeks of CICADAS alone (Arm C). After 16 weeks, the full battery of assessments has been remotely administered. Results: We have evaluated the acceptability of CICADAS by examining adherence rates, engagement patterns, and exit survey data. We found that: 1) CICADAS is able to serve as a treatment enhancer for PEERS, inducing greater improvements in sensory processing, cognition, symptom reduction, social skills and behaviors, as well as the quality of life compared to computer games; 2) the concurrent delivery of PEERS and CICADAS induces greater improvements in study outcomes compared to CICADAS only. Conclusion: While preliminary, our results indicate that the individualized assessment and treatment approach designed in CICADAS seems effective in inducing adaptive long-term learning about social-emotional events. CICADAS-induced enhancement of processing and cognition facilitates the application of PEERS skills in the environment of adolescents with ASD, thus improving their real-world functioning.

Keywords: ASD, social skills, cognitive training, mobile app

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Authors: Eda Ozkara San

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Nurse educators have been charged by several nursing organizations and accrediting bodies to provide innovative and evidence-based educational experiences, both didactic and clinical, to help students to develop the knowledge, skills, and attitudes needed to provide culturally competent nursing care to patients. Clinical simulation, which offers the opportunity for students to practice nursing skills in a risk-free, controlled environment and helps develop self-efficacy (confidence) within the nursing role. As one simulation method, the standardized patients (SPs) simulation helps educators to teach nursing students variety of skills in nursing, medicine, and other health professions. It can be a helpful tool for nurse educators to enhance cultural competence of nursing students. An alarming gap exists within the literature concerning the effectiveness of SP strategy to enhance cultural competence development of diverse student groups, who must work with patients from various backgrounds. This grant-supported, longitudinal, one-group, pretest and post-test educational intervention study aimed to examine the effect of the Diverse Standardized Patient Simulation (DSPS) cultural competence education strategy on students’ (n = 53) transcultural self-efficacy (TSE). The researcher-developed multidimensional DSPS strategy involved careful integration of transcultural nursing skills guided by the Cultural Competence and Confidence (CCC) model. As a carefully orchestrated teaching and learning strategy by specifically utilizing the SP pedagogy, the DSPS also followed international guidelines and standards for the design, implementation, evaluation, and SP training; and had content validity review. The DSPS strategy involved two simulation scenarios targeting underrepresented patient populations (Muslim immigrant woman with limited English proficiency and Irish-Italian American gay man with his partner (Puerto Rican) to be utilized in a second-semester, nine-credit, 15-week medical-surgical nursing course at an urban public US university. Five doctorally prepared content experts reviewed the DSPS strategy for content validity. The item-level content validity index (I-CVI) score was calculated between .80-1.0 on the evaluation forms. Jeffreys’ Transcultural Self-Efficacy Tool (TSET) was administered as a pretest and post-test to assess students’ changes in cognitive, practical, and affective dimensions of TSE. Results gained from this study support that the DSPS cultural competence education strategy assisted students to develop cultural competence and caused statistically significant changes (increase) in students’ TSE perceptions. Results also supported that all students, regardless of their background, benefit (and require) well designed cultural competence education strategies. The multidimensional DSPS strategy is found to be an effective way to foster nursing students’ cultural competence development. Step-by-step description of the DSPS provides an easy adaptation of this strategy with different student populations and settings.

Keywords: cultural competence development, the cultural competence and confidence model, CCC model, educational intervention, transcultural self-efficacy, TSE, transcultural self-efficacy tool, TSET

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Authors: Anna Höfer, Johannes Herrmann, Patrick Meybohm, Christopher Lotz

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Mitochondria are pivotal for energy supply and regulation of cellular functions. Deficiencies of mitochondrial metabolism have been implicated in diverse stressful conditions including infections. Platelets are key mediators for thrombo-inflammation during development and resolution of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). Previous data point to an exhausted platelet phenotype in critically-ill patients with coronavirus 19 disease (COVID-19) impacting the course of disease. The objective of this work was to characterize platelet mitochondrial metabolism in patients suffering from COVID-19 ARDSA longitudinal analysis of platelet mitochondrial metabolism in 24 patients with COVID-19 induced ARDS compared to 35 healthy controls (ctrl) was performed. Blood samples were analyzed at two time points (t1=day 1; t2=day 5-7 after study inclusion). The activity of mitochondrial citrate synthase was photometrically measured. The impact of oxidative stress on mitochondrial permeability was assessed by a photometric calcium-induced swelling assay and the activity of superoxide dismutase (SOD) by a SOD assay kit. The amount of protein carbonylation and the activity of mitochondria complexes I-IV were photometrically determined. Levels of interleukins (IL)-1α, IL-1β and tumor necrosis factor (TNF-) α were measured by a Multiplex assay kit. Median age was 54 years, 63 % were male and BMI was 29.8 kg/m2. SOFA (12; IQR: 10-15) and APACHE II (27; IQR: 24-30) indicated critical illness. Median Murray Score was 3.4 (IQR: 2.8-3.4), 21/24 (88%) required mechanical ventilation and V-V ECMO support in 14/24 (58%). Platelet counts in ARDS did not change during ICU stay (t1: 212 vs. t2: 209 x109/L). However, mean platelet volume (MPV) significantly increased (t1: 10.6 vs. t2: 11.9 fL; p<0.0001). Citrate synthase activity showed no significant differences between ctrl and ARDS patients. Calcium induced swelling was more pronounced in patients at t1 compared to t2 and to ctrl (50µM; t1: 0.006 vs. ctrl: 0.016 ΔOD; p=0.001). The amount of protein carbonylation as marker for irreversible proteomic modification constantly increased during ICU stay and compared to ctrl., without reaching significance. In parallel, superoxid dismutase activity gradually declined during ICU treatment vs. ctrl (t2: - 29 vs. ctrl.: - 17 %; p=0.0464). Complex I analysis revealed significantly stronger activity in ARDS vs. ctrl. (t1: 0.633 vs. ctrl.: 0.415 ΔOD; p=0.0086). There were no significant differences in complex II, III or IV activity in platelets from ARDS patients compared to ctrl. IL-18 constantly increased during the observation period without reaching significance. IL-1α and TNF-α did not differ from ctrl. However, IL-1β levels were significantly elevated in ARDS (t1: 16.8; t2: 16.6 vs. ctrl.: 12.4 pg/mL; p1=0.0335, p2=0.0032). This study reveals new insights in platelet mitochondrial metabolism during COVID-19 caused ARDS. it data point towards enhanced platelet activity with a pronounced turnover rate. We found increased activity of mitochondria complex I and evidence for enhanced oxidative stress. In parallel, protective mechanisms against oxidative stress were narrowed with elevated levels of IL-1β likely causing a pro-apoptotic environment. These mechanisms may contribute to platelet exhaustion in ARDS.

Keywords: acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), coronavirus 19 disease (COVID-19), oxidative stress, platelet mitochondrial metabolism

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Authors: Maria M. Calheiros, Carla Silva, Eunice Magalhães

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Professionals working in child protection services (CPS) need to have common and clear criteria to identify cases of maltreatment and to differentiate levels of severity in order to determine when CPS intervention is required, its nature and urgency, and, in most countries, the service that will be in charge of the case (community or specialized CPS). Actually, decision-making process is complex in CPS, and, for that reason, such criteria are particularly important for who significantly contribute to that decision-making in child maltreatment cases. The main objective of this presentation is to describe the Maltreatment Severity Assessment Questionnaire (MSQ), specifically designed to be used by professionals in the CPS, which adopts a multidimensional approach and uses a scale of severity within subtypes. Specifically, we aim to provide evidence of validity and reliability of this tool, in order to improve the quality and validity of assessment processes and, consequently, the decision making in CPS. The total sample was composed of 1000 children and/or adolescents (51.1% boys), aged between 0 and 18 years old (M = 9.47; DP = 4.51). All the participants were referred to official institutions of the children and youth protective system. Children and adolescents maltreatment (abuse, neglect experiences and sexual abuse) were assessed with 21 items of the Maltreatment Severity Questionnaire (MSQ), by professionals of CPS. Each item (sub-type) was composed of four descriptors of increasing severity. Professionals rated the level of severity, using a 4-point scale (1= minimally severe; 2= moderately severe; 3= highly severe; 4= extremely severe). The construct validity of the Maltreatment Severity Questionnaire was assessed with a holdout method, performing an Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) followed by a Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA). The final solution comprised 18 items organized in three factors 47.3% of variance explained. ‘Physical neglect’ (eight items) was defined by parental omissions concerning the insurance and monitoring of the child’s physical well-being and health, namely in terms of clothing, hygiene, housing conditions and contextual environmental security. ‘Physical and Psychological Abuse’ (four items) described abusive physical and psychological actions, namely, coercive/punitive disciplinary methods, physically violent methods or verbal interactions that offend and denigrate the child, with the potential to disrupt psychological attributes (e.g., self-esteem). ‘Psychological neglect’ (six items) involved omissions related to children emotional development, mental health monitoring, school attendance, development needs, as well as inappropriate relationship patterns with attachment figures. Results indicated a good reliability of all the factors. The assessment of child maltreatment cases with MSQ could have a set of practical and research implications: a) It is a valid and reliable multidimensional instrument to measure child maltreatment, b) It is an instrument integrating the co-occurrence of various types of maltreatment and a within-subtypes scale of severity; c) Specifically designed for professionals, it may assist them in decision-making processes; d) More than using case file reports to evaluate maltreatment experiences, researchers could guide more appropriately their research about determinants and consequences of maltreatment.

Keywords: assessment, maltreatment, children and youth, decision-making

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Authors: Ivy Chen XQ

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This research places a much-needed focus on the conservation of the Blue Economy (BE) by focusing on the design and development of monitoring systems to track critical indicators on the status of the BE. In this process, local experiences provide an insight into important community issues, as well as the necessity to cooperate and collaborate in order to achieve sustainable options. Researchers worldwide and industry initiatives over the last decade show that the exploitation of marine resources has resulted in a significant decrease in the share of total allowable catch (TAC). The result has been strengthening law enforcement, yet the results have shown that problems were related to poor policies, a lack of understanding of over-exploitation, biological uncertainty and political pressures. This reality and other statistics that show a significant negative impact on the attainment of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), warrant an emphasis on the development of national M&E systems, in order to provide evidence-based information, on the nature and scale of especially transnational fisheries crime and under-sea marine resources in the BE. In particular, a need exists to establish a compendium of relevant BE indicators to assess such impact against the SDGs by using selected SDG indicators for this purpose. The research methodology consists of ATLAS.ti qualitative approach and a case study will be developed of Illegal, unregulated and unreported (IUU) poaching and Illegal Wildlife Trade (IWT) as component of the BE as it relates to the case of abalone in southern Africa and Far East. This research project will make an original contribution through the analysis and comparative assessment of available indicators, in the design process of M&E systems and developing indicators and monitoring frameworks in order to track critical trends and tendencies on the status of the BE, to ensure specific objectives to be aligned with the indicators of the SDGs framework. The research will provide a set of recommendations to governments and stakeholders involved in such projects on lessons learned, as well as priorities for future research. The research findings will enable scholars, civil society institutions, donors and public servants, to understand the capability of the M&E systems, the importance of showing multi-level governance, in the coordination of information management, together with knowledge management (KM) and M&E at the international, regional, national and local levels. This coordination should focus on a sustainable development management approach, based on addressing socio-economic challenges to the potential and sustainability of BE, with an emphasis on ecosystem resilience, social equity and resource efficiency. This research and study focus are timely as the opportunities of the post-Covid-19 crisis recovery package will be grasped to set the economy on a path to sustainable development in line with the UN 2030 Agenda. The pandemic raises more awareness for the world to eliminate IUU poaching and illegal wildlife trade (IWT).

Keywords: Blue Economy (BE), transnational governance, Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E), Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

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Authors: Farah Vierra

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Following the 2016 US presidential election and the advancement of the Brexit referendum, the concept of “post-truth”, defined by Oxford Dictionary as “relating to or denoting circumstances in which objective facts are less influential in shaping public opinion than appeals to emotion and personal belief”, came into prominent use in public, political and educational circles. What this essentially entails is that in this age, individuals are increasingly confronted with subjective perpetuations of truth in their discourse spheres that are informed by beliefs and opinions as opposed to any form of coherence to the reality of those who these truth claims concern. In principle, a subjective delineation of truth is progressive and liberating – especially considering its potential in providing marginalised groups in the diverse communities of our globalised world with the voice to articulate truths that are representative of themselves and their experiences. However, any form of human flourishing that seems to be promised here collapses as the tenets of subjective truths initially in place to liberate has been distorted through post-truth to allow individuals to purport selective and individualistic truth claims that further oppress and silence certain groups within society without due accountability. The evidence of which is prevalent through the conception of terms such as "alternative facts" and "fake news" that we observe individuals declare when their problematic truth claims are questioned. Considering the pervasiveness of post-truth and the ethical issues that accompany it, educators and scholars alike have increasingly noted the need to adapt educational practices and pedagogies to account for the diminishing objectivity of truth in the twenty-first century, especially because students, as digital natives, find themselves in the firing line of post-truth; engulfed in digital societies that proliferate post-truth through the surge of truth claims allowed in various media sites. In an attempt to equip students with the vital skills to navigate the post-truth age and oppose its proliferation of social injustices, English educators find themselves having to devise instructional strategies that not only teach students the ways they can critically and ethically scrutinise truth claims but also teach them to mediate the subjectivity of truth in a manner that does not undermine the voices of diverse communities. In hopes of providing educators with the roadmap to do so, this paper will first examine the challenges that confront students as a result of post-truth. Following which, the paper will elucidate the role English education can play in helping students overcome the complex ramifications of post-truth. Scholars have consistently touted the affordances of literary texts in providing students with imagined spaces to explore societal issues through a critical discernment of language and an ethical engagement with its narrative developments. Therefore, this paper will explain and demonstrate how literary texts, when used alongside a critical-ethical post-truth pedagogy that equips students with interpretive strategies informed by literary traditions such as literary and ethical criticism, can be effective in helping students develop the pertinent skills to comprehensively examine truth claims and overcome the challenges of the post-truth age.

Keywords: post-truth, pedagogy, ethics, English, education

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Authors: Zihan Geng, L. Quentin Dixon

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It has been proposed that early bilingual experience confers a number of advantages in the development of executive control mechanisms. Although the literature provides empirical evidence for bilingual benefits, some studies also reported null or mixed results. To make sense of these contradictory findings, the current review synthesize recent empirical studies investigating bilingual effects on children’s executive function and attention control. The publication time of the studies included in the review ranges from 2010 to 2017. The key searching terms are bilingual, bilingualism, children, executive control, executive function, and attention. The key terms were combined within each of the following databases: ERIC (EBSCO), Education Source, PsycINFO, and Social Science Citation Index. Studies involving both children and adults were also included but the analysis was based on the data generated only by the children group. The initial search yielded 137 distinct articles. Twenty-eight studies from 27 articles with a total of 3367 participants were finally included based on the selection criteria. The selective studies were then coded in terms of (a) the setting (i.e., the country where the data was collected), (b) the participants (i.e., age and languages), (c) sample size (i.e., the number of children in each group), (d) cognitive outcomes measured, (e) data collection instruments (i.e., cognitive tasks and tests), and (f) statistic analysis models (e.g., t-test, ANOVA). The results show that the majority of the studies were undertaken in western countries, mainly in the U.S., Canada, and the UK. A variety of languages such as Arabic, French, Dutch, Welsh, German, Spanish, Korean, and Cantonese were involved. In relation to cognitive outcomes, the studies examined children’s overall planning and problem-solving abilities, inhibition, cognitive complexity, working memory (WM), and sustained and selective attention. The results indicate that though bilingualism is associated with several cognitive benefits, the advantages seem to be weak, at least, for children. Additionally, the nature of the cognitive measures was found to greatly moderate the results. No significant differences are observed between bilinguals and monolinguals in overall planning and problem-solving ability, indicating that there is no bilingual benefit in the cooperation of executive function components at an early age. In terms of inhibition, the mixed results suggest that bilingual children, especially young children, may have better conceptual inhibition measured in conflict tasks, but not better response inhibition measured by delay tasks. Further, bilingual children showed better inhibitory control to bivalent displays, which resembles the process of maintaining two language systems. The null results were obtained for both cognitive complexity and WM, suggesting no bilingual advantage in these two cognitive components. Finally, findings on children’s attention system associate bilingualism with heightened attention control. Together, these findings support the hypothesis of cognitive benefits for bilingual children. Nevertheless, whether these advantages are observable appears to highly depend on the cognitive assessments. Therefore, future research should be more specific about the cognitive outcomes (e.g., the type of inhibition) and should report the validity of the cognitive measures consistently.

Keywords: attention, bilingual advantage, children, executive function

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Authors: Patrick Louie Robles, Jerry Suls, Ciaran Friel, Mark Butler, Samantha Gordon, Frank Vicari, Joan Duer-Hefele, Karina W. Davidson

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Physical activity guidelines focus on increasing moderate-intensity activity for older adults, but adherence to recommendations remains low. This is despite the fact that scientific evidence finds increasing physical activity is positively associated with health benefits. Behavior change techniques (BCTs) have demonstrated some effectiveness in reducing sedentary behavior and promoting physical activity. This pilot study uses a personalized trials (N-of-1) design, delivered virtually, to evaluate the efficacy of using five BCTs in increasing low-intensity physical activity (by 2,000 steps of walking per day) in adults aged 45-75 years old. The 5 BCTs described in habit formation theory are goal setting, action planning, rehearsal, rehearsal in a consistent context, and self-monitoring. The study recruited health system employees in the target age range who had no mobility restrictions and expressed interest in increasing their daily activity by a minimum of 2,000 steps per day at least five days per week. Participants were sent a Fitbit Charge 4 fitness tracker with an established study account and password. Participants were recommended to wear the Fitbit device 24/7 but were required to wear it for a minimum of ten hours per day. Baseline physical activity was measured by Fitbit for two weeks. Participants then engaged remotely with a clinical research coordinator to establish a “walking plan” that included a time and day interval (e.g., between 7am -8am on Monday-Friday), a location for the walk (e.g., park), and how much time the plan would need to achieve a minimum of 2,000 steps over their baseline average step count (20 minutes). All elements of the walking plan were required to remain consistent throughout the study. In the 10-week intervention phase of the study, participants received all five BCTs in a single, time-sensitive text message. The text message was delivered 30 minutes prior to the established walk time and signaled participants to begin walking when the context (i.e., day of the week, time of day) they pre-selected is encountered. Participants were asked to log both the start and conclusion of their activity session by pressing a button on the Fitbit tracker. Within 30 minutes of the planned conclusion of the activity session, participants received a text message with a link to a secure survey. Here, they noted whether they engaged in the BCTs when prompted and completed an automaticity survey to identify how “automatic” their walking behavior had become. At the end of their trial, participants received a personalized summary of their step data over time, helping them learn more about their responses to the five BCTs. Whether the use of these 5 ‘habit formation’ BCTs in combination elicits a change in physical activity behavior among older adults will be reported. This study will inform the feasibility of a virtually-delivered N-of-1 study design to effectively promote physical activity as a component of healthy aging.

Keywords: aging, exercise, habit, walking

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Authors: Ricardo Godoy, Herbert Venthur, Hector Jimenez, Andres Quiroz, Ana Mutis

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In agriculture, grape production has great economic importance at global level, considering that in 2013 it reached 7.4 million hectares (ha) covered by plantations of this fruit worldwide. Chile is the number one exporter in the world with 800,000 tons. However, these values have been threatened by the attack of the grapevine moth, Lobesia botrana (Denis & Schiffermuller) (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae), since its detection in 2008. Nowadays, the use of semiochemicals, in particular the major component of the sex pheromone, (E,Z)-7.9-dodecadienil acetate, are part of mating disruption methods to control L. botrana. How insect pests can recognize these molecules, is being part of huge efforts to deorphanize their olfactory mechanism at molecular level. Thus, an interesting group of proteins has been identified in the antennae of insects, where odorant-binding proteins (OBPs) are known by transporting molecules to odorant receptors (ORs) and a co-receptor (ORCO) causing a behavioral change in the insect. Other proteins such as chemosensory proteins (CSPs), ionotropic receptors (IRs), odorant degrading enzymes (ODEs) and sensory neuron membrane proteins (SNMPs) seem to be involved, but few studies have been performed so far. The above has led to an increasing interest in insect communication at a molecular level, which has contributed to both a better understanding of the olfaction process and the design of new pest management strategies. To date, it has been reported that the ORs can detect one or a small group of odorants in a specific way. Therefore, the objective of this study is the identification of genes that encode these ORs using the antennal transcriptome of L. botrana. Total RNA was extracted for females and males of L. botrana, and the antennal transcriptome sequenced by Next Generation Sequencing service using an Illumina HiSeq2500 platform with 50 million reads per sample. Unigenes were assembled using Trinity v2.4.0 package and transcript abundance was obtained using edgeR. Genes were identified using BLASTN and BLASTX locally installed in a Unix system and based on our own Tortricidae database. Those Unigenes related to ORs were characterized using ORFfinder and protein Blastp server. Finally, a phylogenetic analysis was performed with the candidate amino acid sequences for LbotORs including amino acid sequences of other moths ORs, such as Bombyx mori, Cydia pomonella, among others. Our findings suggest 61 genes encoding ORs and one gene encoding an ORCO in both sexes, where the greatest difference was found in the OR6 because of the transcript abundance according to the value of FPKM in females and males was 1.48 versus 324.00. In addition, according to phylogenetic analysis OR6 is closely related to OR1 in Cydia pomonella and OR6, OR7 in Epiphyas postvittana, which have been described as pheromonal receptors (PRs). These results represent the first evidence of ORs present in the antennae of L. botrana and a suitable starting point for further functional studies with selected ORs, such as OR6, which is potentially related to pheromonal recognition.

Keywords: antennal transcriptome, lobesia botrana, odorant receptors (ORs), phylogenetic analysis

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Authors: Petra Hypšová, Martin Seitl

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One of the challenges of forensic psychology is to detect deception during a face-to-face interview. In addition to the classical approaches of monitoring the utterance and its components, detection is also sought by observing behavioral and physiological changes that occur as a result of the increased emotional and cognitive load caused by the production of distorted information. Typical are changes in facial temperature, eye movements and their fixation, pupil dilation, emotional micro-expression, heart rate and its variability. Expanding technological capabilities have opened the space to detect these psychophysiological changes and behavioral manifestations through non-contact technologies that do not interfere with face-to-face interaction. Non-contact deception detection methodology is still in development, and there is a lack of studies that combine multiple non-contact technologies to investigate their accuracy, as well as studies that show how different types of lies produced by different interviewers affect physiological and behavioral changes. The main objective of this study is to apply a specific non-contact technology for deception detection. The next objective is to investigate scenarios in which non-contact deception detection is possible. A series of psychophysiological experiments using infrared thermal imaging, eye tracking and behavioral analysis with FaceReader 9.0 software was used to achieve our goals. In the laboratory experiment, 16 adults (12 women, 4 men) between 18 and 35 years of age (SD = 4.42) were instructed to produce alternating prepared and spontaneous truths and lies. The baseline of each proband was also measured, and its results were compared to the experimental conditions. Because the personality of the examiner (particularly gender and facial appearance) to whom the subject is lying can influence physiological and behavioral changes, the experiment included four different interviewers. The interviewer was represented by a photograph of a face that met the required parameters in terms of gender and facial appearance (i.e., interviewer likability/antipathy) to follow standardized procedures. The subject provided all information to the simulated interviewer. During follow-up analyzes, facial temperature (main ROIs: forehead, cheeks, the tip of the nose, chin, and corners of the eyes), heart rate, emotional expression, intensity and fixation of eye movements and pupil dilation were observed. The results showed that the variables studied varied with respect to the production of prepared truths and lies versus the production of spontaneous truths and lies, as well as the variability of the simulated interviewer. The results also supported the assumption of variability in physiological and behavioural values during the subject's resting state, the so-called baseline, and the production of prepared and spontaneous truths and lies. A series of psychophysiological experiments provided evidence of variability in the areas of interest in the production of truths and lies to different interviewers. The combination of technologies used also led to a comprehensive assessment of the physiological and behavioral changes associated with false and true statements. The study presented here opens the space for further research in the field of lie detection with non-contact technologies.

Keywords: emotional expression decoding, eye-tracking, functional infrared thermal imaging, non-contact deception detection, psychophysiological experiment

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Authors: Robert Pečenko, Karin Tomažič, Igor Planinc, Sabina Huč, Tomaž Hozjan

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Timber is favourable structural material due to high strength to weight ratio, recycling possibilities, and green credentials. Despite being flammable material, it has relatively high fire resistance. Everyday engineering practice around the word is based on an outdated design of timber structures considering standard fire exposure, while modern principles of performance-based design enable use of advanced non-standard fire curves. In Europe, standard for fire design of timber structures EN 1995-1-2 (Eurocode 5) gives two methods, reduced material properties method and reduced cross-section method. In the latter, fire resistance of structural elements depends on the effective cross-section that is a residual cross-section of uncharred timber reduced additionally by so called zero strength layer. In case of standard fire exposure, Eurocode 5 gives a fixed value of zero strength layer, i.e. 7 mm, while for non-standard parametric fires no additional comments or recommendations for zero strength layer are given. Thus designers often implement adopted 7 mm rule also for parametric fire exposure. Since the latest scientific evidence suggests that proposed value of zero strength layer can be on unsafe side for standard fire exposure, its use in the case of a parametric fire is also highly questionable and more numerical and experimental research in this field is needed. Therefore, the purpose of the presented study is to use advanced calculation methods to investigate the thickness of zero strength layer and parametric charring rates used in effective cross-section method in case of parametric fire. Parametric studies are carried out on a simple solid timber beam that is exposed to a larger number of parametric fire curves Zero strength layer and charring rates are determined based on the numerical simulations which are performed by the recently developed advanced two step computational model. The first step comprises of hygro-thermal model which predicts the temperature, moisture and char depth development and takes into account different initial moisture states of timber. In the second step, the response of timber beam simultaneously exposed to mechanical and fire load is determined. The mechanical model is based on the Reissner’s kinematically exact beam model and accounts for the membrane, shear and flexural deformations of the beam. Further on, material non-linear and temperature dependent behaviour is considered. In the two step model, the char front temperature is, according to Eurocode 5, assumed to have a fixed temperature of around 300°C. Based on performed study and observations, improved levels of charring rates and new thickness of zero strength layer in case of parametric fires are determined. Thus, the reduced cross section method is substantially improved to offer practical recommendations for designing fire resistance of timber structures. Furthermore, correlations between zero strength layer thickness and key input parameters of the parametric fire curve (for instance, opening factor, fire load, etc.) are given, representing a guideline for a more detailed numerical and also experimental research in the future.

Keywords: advanced numerical modelling, parametric fire exposure, timber structures, zero strength layer

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Authors: Mariyah Poonawala, Selvan Ravindran, Anuradha Vaidya

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Despite much progress in understanding the regulatory factors and cytokines that support the maturation of the various cell lineages of the hematopoietic system, factors that govern the self-renewal and proliferation of hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs) is still a grey area of research. Hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) has evolved over the years and gained tremendous importance in the treatment of both malignant and non-malignant diseases. However, factors such as graft rejection and multiple organ failure have challenged HSCT from time to time, underscoring the urgent need for development of milder processes for successful hematopoietic transplantation. An emerging concept in the field of stem cell biology states that the interactions between the bone-marrow micro-environment and the hematopoietic stem and progenitor cells is essential for regulation, maintenance, commitment and proliferation of stem cells. Understanding the role of mesenchymal stromal cells in modulating the functionality of HSCs is, therefore, an important area of research. Trans-resveratrol has been extensively studied for its various properties to combat and prevent cancer, diabetes and cardiovascular diseases etc. The aim of the present study was to understand the effect of trans-resveratrol on HSCs using single and co-culture systems. We have used KG1a cells since it is a well accepted hematopoietic stem cell model system. Our preliminary experiments showed that low concentrations of trans-resveratrol stimulated the HSCs to undergo proliferation whereas high concentrations of trans-resveratrol did not stimulate the cells to proliferate. We used a murine fibroblast cell line, M210B4, as a stromal feeder layer. On culturing the KG1a cells with M210B4 cells, we observed that the stimulatory as well as inhibitory effects of trans-resveratrol at low and high concentrations respectively, were enhanced. Our further experiments showed that low concentration of trans-resveratrol reduced the generation of reactive oxygen species (ROS) and nitric oxide (NO) whereas high concentrations increased the oxidative stress in KG1a cells. We speculated that perhaps the oxidative stress was imposing inhibitory effects at high concentration and the same was confirmed by performing an apoptotic assay. Furthermore, cell cycle analysis and growth kinetic experiments provided evidence that low concentration of trans-resveratrol reduced the doubling time of the cells. Our hypothesis is that perhaps at low concentration of trans-resveratrol the cells get pushed into the G0/G1 phase and re-enter the cell cycle resulting in their proliferation, whereas at high concentration the cells are perhaps arrested at G2/M phase or at cytokinesis and therefore undergo apoptosis. Liquid Chromatography-Quantitative-Time of Flight–Mass Spectroscopy (LC-Q-TOF MS) analyses indicated the presence of trans-resveratrol and its metabolite(s) in the supernatant of the co-cultured cells incubated with high concentration of trans-resveratrol. We conjecture that perhaps the metabolites of trans-resveratrol are responsible for the apoptosis observed at the high concentration. Our findings may shed light on the unsolved problems in the in vitro expansion of stem cells and may have implications in the ex vivo manipulation of HSCs for therapeutic purposes.

Keywords: co-culture system, hematopoietic micro-environment, KG1a cell line, M210B4 cell line, trans-resveratrol

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Authors: Arti Singh, Carolyn Jenkins, Oyedunni S. Arulogun, Mayowa O. Owolabi, Fred S. Sarfo, Bruce Ovbiagele, Enzinne Sylvia

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Background: Stroke, the leading cause of adult-onset disability and the second leading cause of death, is a major public health concern particularly pertinent in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), where nearly 80% of all global stroke mortalities occur. The Stroke Investigative Research and Education Network (SIREN) seeks to comprehensively characterize the genomic, sociocultural, economic, and behavioral risk factors for stroke and to build effective teams for research to address and decrease the burden of stroke and other non communicable diseases in SSA. One of the first steps to address this goal was to effectively engage the communities that suffer the high burden of disease in SSA. This study describes how the SIREN project engaged six sites in Ghana and Nigeria over the past three years, describing the community engagement activities that have arisen since inception. Aim: The aim of community engagement (CE) within SIREN is to elucidate information about knowledge, attitudes, beliefs, and practices (KABP) about stroke and its risk factors from individuals of African ancestry in SSA, and to educate the community about stroke and ways to decrease disabilities and deaths from stroke using socioculturally appropriate messaging and messengers. Methods: Community Advisory Board (CABs), Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) and community outreach programs. Results: 27 FGDs with 168 participants including community heads, religious leaders, health professionals and individuals with stroke among others, were conducted, and over 60 CE outreaches have been conducted within the SIREN performance sites. Over 5,900 individuals have received education on cardiovascular risk factors and about 5,000 have been screened for cardiovascular risk factors during the outreaches. FGDs and outreach programs indicate that knowledge of stroke, as well as risk factors and follow-up evidence-based care is limited and often late. Other findings include: 1) Most recognize hypertension as a major risk factor for stroke. 2) About 50% report that stroke is hereditary and about 20% do not know organs affected by stroke. 3) More than 95% willing to participate in genetic testing research and about 85% willing to pay for testing and recommend the test to others. 4) Almost all indicated that genetic testing could help health providers better treat stroke and help scientists better understand the causes of stroke. The CABs provided stakeholder input into SIREN activities and facilitated collaborations among investigators, community members and stakeholders. Conclusion: The CE core within SIREN is a first-of-its kind public outreach engagement initiative to evaluate and address perceptions about stroke and genomics by patients, caregivers, and local leaders in SSA and has implications as a model for assessment in other high-stroke risk populations. SIREN’s CE program uses best practices to build capacity for community-engaged research, accelerate integration of research findings into practice and strengthen dynamic community-academic partnerships within our communities. CE has had several major successes over the past three years including our multi-site collaboration examining the KABP about stroke (symptoms, risk factors, burden) and genetic testing across SSA.

Keywords: community advisory board, community engagement, focus groups, outreach, SSA, stroke

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Authors: Farah Vierra

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Following the 2016 US presidential election and the advancement of the Brexit referendum, the concept of “post-truth,” defined by the Oxford Dictionary as “relating to or denoting circumstances in which objective facts are less influential in shaping public opinion than appeals to emotion and personal belief,” came into prominent use in public, political and educational circles. What this essentially entails is that in this age, individuals are increasingly confronted with subjective perpetuations of truth in their discourse spheres that are informed by beliefs and opinions as opposed to any form of coherence to the reality of those to who this truth claims concern. In principle, a subjective delineation of truth is progressive and liberating – especially considering its potential to provide marginalised groups in the diverse communities of our globalised world with the voice to articulate truths that are representative of themselves and their experiences. However, any form of human flourishing that seems to be promised here collapses as the tenets of subjective truths initially in place to liberate have been distorted through post-truth to allow individuals to purport selective and individualistic truth claims that further oppress and silence certain groups within society without due accountability. The evidence of this is prevalent through the conception of terms such as "alternative facts" and "fake news" that we observe individuals declare when their problematic truth claims are being questioned. Considering the pervasiveness of post-truth and the ethical issues that accompany it, educators and scholars alike have increasingly noted the need to adapt educational practices and pedagogies to account for the diminishing objectivity of truth in the twenty-first century, especially because students, as digital natives, find themselves in the firing line of post-truth; engulfed in digital societies that proliferate post-truth through the surge of truth claims allowed in various media sites. In an attempt to equip students with the vital skills to navigate the post-truth age and oppose its proliferation of social injustices, English educators find themselves having to contend with a complex question: how can the teaching of English equip students with the ability to critically and ethically scrutinise truth claims whilst also mediating the subjectivity of truth in a manner that does not undermine the voices of diverse communities. In order to address this question, this paper will first examine the challenges that confront students as a result of post-truth. Following this, the paper will elucidate the role English education can play in helping students overcome the complex demands of the post-truth age. Scholars have consistently touted the affordances of literary texts in providing students with imagined spaces to explore societal issues through a critical discernment of language and an ethical engagement with its narrative developments. Therefore, this paper will explain and demonstrate how literary texts, when used alongside a critical-ethical post-truth pedagogy that equips students with interpretive strategies informed by literary traditions such as literary and ethical criticism, can be effective in helping students develop the pertinent skills to comprehensively examine truth claims and overcome the challenges of the post-truth age.

Keywords: post-truth, pedagogy, ethics, english, education

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Authors: Mette Dalgaard Nielsen

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The paper serves the purpose of providing an eco-systemic typology of fashion resale business models in Denmark while pointing to possibilities to learn from its wisdom during a time when a fundamental break with the dominant linear fashion paradigm has become inevitable. As we transgress planetary boundaries and can no longer continue the unsustainable path of over-exploiting the Earth’s resources, the global fashion industry faces a tremendous need for change. One of the preferred answers to the fashion industry’s sustainability crises lies in the circular economy, which aims to maximize the utilization of resources by keeping garments in use for longer. Thus, in the context of fashion, resale business models that allow pre-owned garments to change hands with the purpose of being reused in continuous cycles are considered to be among the most efficient forms of circularity. Methodologies: The paper is based on empirical data from an ongoing project and a series of qualitative pilot studies that have been conducted on the Danish resale market over a 2-year time period from Fall 2021 to Fall 2023. The methodological framework is comprised of (n) ethnography and fieldwork in selected resale environments, as well as semi-structured interviews and a workshop with eight business partners from the Danish fashion and textiles industry. By focusing on the real-world circulation of pre-owned garments, which is enabled by the identified resale business models, the research lets go of simplistic hypotheses to the benefit of dynamic, vibrant and non-linear processes. As such, the paper contributes to the emerging research field of circular economy and fashion, which finds itself in a critical need to move from non-verified concepts and theories to empirical evidence. Findings: Based on the empirical data and anchored in the business partners, the paper analyses and presents five distinct resale business models with different product, service and design characteristics. These are 1) branded resale, 2) trade-in resale, 3) peer-2-peer resale, 4) resale boutiques and consignment shops and 5) resale shelf/square meter stores and flea markets. Together, the five business models represent a plurality of resale-promoting business model design elements that have been found to contribute to the circulation of pre-owned garments in various ways for different garments, users and businesses in Denmark. Hence, the provided typology points to the necessity of prioritizing several rather than single resale business model designs, services and initiatives for the resale market to help reconfigure the linear fashion model and create a circular-ish future. Conclusions: The article represents a twofold research ambition by 1) presenting an original, up-to-date eco-systemic typology of resale business models in Denmark and 2) using the typology and its eco-systemic traits as a tool to understand different business model design elements and possibilities to help fashion grow out of its linear growth model. By basing the typology on eco-systemic mechanisms and actual exemplars of resale business models, it becomes possible to envision the contours of a genuine alternative to business as usual that ultimately helps bend the linear fashion model towards circularity.

Keywords: circular business models, circular economy, fashion, resale, strategic design, sustainability

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Authors: Patrick Weber, Daniel Gredig

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Background and Purpose: Research has well documented the impact of discrimination and micro-aggressions on the wellbeing of gay men and, especially, adolescents. For the prevention of homophobic behavior against gay adolescents, however, the focus has to shift on those who discriminate: For the design and tailoring of prevention and intervention, it is important to understand the factors responsible for homophobic behavior such as, for example, verbal abuse. Against this background, the present study aimed to assess homophobic – in terms of verbally abusive – behavior against gay people among high school students. Furthermore, it aimed to establish the predictors of the reported behavior by testing an explanatory model. This model posits that homophobic behavior is determined by negative attitudes and knowledge. These variables are supposed to be predicted by the acceptance of traditional gender roles, religiosity, orientation toward social dominance, contact with gay men, and by the perceived expectations of parents, friends and teachers. These social-cognitive variables in turn are assumed to be determined by students’ gender, age, immigration background, formal school level, and the discussion of gay issues in class. Method: From August to October 2016, we visited 58 high school classes in 22 public schools in a county in Switzerland, and asked the 8th and 9th year students on three formal school levels to participate in survey about gender and gay issues. For data collection, we used an anonymous self-administered questionnaire filled in during class. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and structural equation modelling (Generalized Least Square Estimates method). The sample included 897 students, 334 in the 8th and 563 in the 9th year, aged 12–17, 51.2% being female, 48.8% male, 50.3% with immigration background. Results: A proportion of 85.4% participants reported having made homophobic statements in the 12 month before survey, 4.7% often and very often. Analysis showed that respondents’ homophobic behavior was predicted directly by negative attitudes (β=0.20), as well as by the acceptance of traditional gender roles (β=0.06), religiosity (β=–0.07), contact with gay people (β=0.10), expectations of parents (β=–0.14) and friends (β=–0.19), gender (β=–0.22) and having a South-East-European or Western- and Middle-Asian immigration background (β=0.09). These variables were predicted, in turn, by gender, age, immigration background, formal school level, and discussion of gay issues in class (GFI=0.995, AGFI=0.979, SRMR=0.0169, CMIN/df=1.199, p>0.213, adj. R2 =0.384). Conclusion: Findings evidence a high prevalence of homophobic behavior in the responding high school students. The tested explanatory model explained 38.4% of the assessed homophobic behavior. However, data did not found full support of the model. Knowledge did not turn out to be a predictor of behavior. Except for the perceived expectation of teachers and orientation toward social dominance, the social-cognitive variables were not fully mediated by attitudes. Equally, gender and immigration background predicted homophobic behavior directly. These findings demonstrate the importance of prevention and provide also leverage points for interventions against anti-gay bias in adolescents – also in social work settings as, for example, in school social work, open youth work or foster care.

Keywords: discrimination, high school students, gay men, predictors, Switzerland

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Authors: A. Abubakar, A. Parsa, S. Walker

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Despite advances made in the diagnosis and management of drug-sensitive tuberculosis (TB) over the past decades, treatment of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) remains challenging and complex particularly in high burden countries including Nigeria. Treatment of MDR-TB is cost-prohibitive with success rate generally lower compared to drug-sensitive TB and if care is not taken it may become the dominant form of TB in future with many treatment uncertainties and substantial morbidity and mortality. Addressing these challenges requires collaborative efforts thorough sustained researches to evaluate the current treatment guidelines, particularly in high burden countries and prevent progression of resistance. To our best knowledge, there has been no research exploring the acceptability, effectiveness, and cost-effectiveness of community-based-MDR-TB treatment model in Nigeria, which is among the high burden countries. The previous similar qualitative study looks at the home-based management of MDR-TB in rural Uganda. This research aimed to explore patient’s views and acceptability of community-based-MDR-TB treatment model and to evaluate and compare the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of community-based versus hospital-based MDR-TB treatment model of care from the Nigerian perspective. Knowledge of patient’s views and acceptability of community-based-MDR-TB treatment approach would help in designing future treatment recommendations and in health policymaking. Accordingly, knowledge of effectiveness and cost-effectiveness are part of the evidence needed to inform a decision about whether and how to scale up MDR-TB treatment, particularly in a poor resource setting with limited knowledge of TB. Mixed methods using qualitative and quantitative approach were employed. Qualitative data were obtained using in-depth semi-structured interviews with 21 MDR-TB patients in Nigeria to explore their views and acceptability of community-based MDR-TB treatment model. Qualitative data collection followed an iterative process which allowed adaptation of topic guides until data saturation. In-depth interviews were analyzed using thematic analysis. Quantitative data on treatment outcomes were obtained from medical records of MDR-TB patients to determine the effectiveness and direct and indirect costs were obtained from the patients using validated questionnaire and health system costs from the donor agencies to determine the cost-effectiveness difference between community and hospital-based model from the Nigerian perspective. Findings: Some themes have emerged from the patient’s perspectives indicating preference and high acceptability of community-based-MDR-TB treatment model by the patients and mixed feelings about the risk of MDR-TB transmission within the community due to poor infection control. The result of the modeling from the quantitative data is still on course. Community-based MDR-TB care was seen as the acceptable and most preferred model of care by the majority of the participants because of its convenience which in turn enhanced recovery, enables social interaction and offer more psychosocial benefits as well as averted productivity loss. However, there is a need to strengthen this model of care thorough enhanced strategies that ensure guidelines compliance and infection control in order to prevent the progression of resistance and curtail community transmission.

Keywords: acceptability, cost-effectiveness, multidrug-resistant TB treatment, community and hospital approach

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Authors: Aditya Sharma

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Profits earned from relative strength strategy of zero-cost portfolio i.e. taking long position in winner stocks and short position in loser stocks from recent past are termed as momentum profits. In recent times, there has been lot of controversy and concern about sources of momentum profits, since the existence of these profits acts as an evidence of earning non-normal returns from publicly available information directly contradicting Efficient Market Hypothesis. Literature review reveals conflicting theories and differing evidences on sources of momentum profits. This paper aims at re-examining the sources of momentum profits in Indian capital markets. The study focuses on assessing the effect of fundamental as well as behavioral sources in order to understand the role of investor behavior in stock returns and suggest (if any) improvements to existing behavioral asset pricing models. This Paper adopts calendar time methodology to calculate momentum profits for 6 different strategies with and without skipping a month between ranking and holding period. For each J/K strategy, under this methodology, at the beginning of each month t stocks are ranked on past j month’s average returns and sorted in descending order. Stocks in upper decile are termed winners and bottom decile as losers. After ranking long and short positions are taken in winner and loser stocks respectively and both portfolios are held for next k months, in such manner that at any given point of time we have K overlapping long and short portfolios each, ranked from t-1 month to t-K month. At the end of period, returns of both long and short portfolios are calculated by taking equally weighted average across all months. Long minus short returns (LMS) are momentum profits for each strategy. Post testing for momentum profits, to study the role market risk plays in momentum profits, CAPM and Fama French three factor model adjusted LMS returns are calculated. In the final phase of studying sources, decomposing methodology has been used for breaking up the profits into unconditional means, serial correlations, and cross-serial correlations. This methodology is unbiased, can be used with the decile-based methodology and helps to test the effect of behavioral and fundamental sources altogether. From all the analysis, it was found that momentum profits do exist in Indian capital markets with market risk playing little role in defining them. Also, it was observed that though momentum profits have multiple sources (risk, serial correlations, and cross-serial correlations), cross-serial correlations plays a major role in defining these profits. The study revealed that momentum profits do have multiple sources however, cross-serial correlations i.e. the effect of returns of other stocks play a major role. This means that in addition to studying the investors` reactions to the information of the same firm it is also important to study how they react to the information of other firms. The analysis confirms that investor behavior does play an important role in stock returns and incorporating both the aspects of investors’ reactions in behavioral asset pricing models help make then better.

Keywords: investor behavior, momentum effect, sources of momentum, stock returns

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Authors: Rizwana Tabassum

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Introductive Statement: Delay in budget releases is often cited as one of the biggest bottlenecks to smooth and efficient service delivery. While budget release from the ministry of finance to the line ministries has been expedited by simplifying the procedure, budget distribution within the line ministries remains one of the major causes of slow budget utilization. While the budget preparation is a bottom-up process where all DDOs submit their proposals to their controlling officers (such as Upazila Civil Surgeon sends it to Director General Health), who consolidate the budget proposals in iBAS++ budget preparation module, the approved budget is not disaggregated by all DDOs. Instead, it is left to the discretion of the controlling officers to distribute the approved budget to their sub-ordinate offices over the course of the year. Though there are some need-based criteria/formulae to distribute the approved budget among DDOs in some sectors, there is little evidence that these criteria are actually used. This means that majority of the DDOs don’t know their yearly allocations upfront to enable yearly planning of activities and expenditures. This delays the implementation of critical activities and the payment to the suppliers of goods and services and sometimes leads to undocumented arrears to suppliers for essential goods/services. In addition, social sector budgets are fragmented because of the vertical programs and externally financed interventions that pose several management challenges at the level of the budget holders and frontline service providers. Slow procurement processes further delay the provision of necessary goods and services. For example, it takes an average of 15–18 months for drugs to reach the Upazila Health Complex and below, while it should not take more than 9 months in procuring and distributing these. Aim of the Study: This paper aims to investigate the budget distribution practices of an emerging economy, Bangladesh. The paper identifies challenges of timely distribution and ways to deal with problems as well. Methodology: The study draws conclusions on the basis of document analysis which is a branch of the qualitative research method. Major Findings: Upon approval of the National Budget, the Ministry of Finance is required to distribute the budget to budget holders at the department level; however, budget is distributed to drawing and disbursing officers much later. Conclusions: Timely and predictable budget releases assist completion of development schemes on time and on budget, with sufficient recurrent resources for effective operation. ADP implementation is usually very low at the beginning of the fiscal year and expedited dramatically during the last few months, leading to inefficient use of resources. The timely budget release will resolve this issue and deliver economic benefits faster, better, and more reliably. This will also give the project directors/DDOs the freedom to think and plan the budget execution in a predictable manner, thereby ensuring value for money by reducing time overrun and expediting the completion of capital investments, and improving infrastructure utilization through timely payment of recurrent costs.

Keywords: budget distribution, challenges, digitization, emerging economy, service delivery

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Authors: Mokhlisur Rahman

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Ocean inhibits one of the most complex ecosystems on the planet that regulates the earth's climate and weather by providing us with compatible weather to live. Ocean provides food by extending various ways of lifestyles that are dependent on it, transportation by accommodating the world's biggest carriers, recreation by offering its beauty in many moods, and home to countless species. At the essence of receiving various forms of entertainment, consumers choose to be close to the ocean while performing many fun activities. Which, at some point, upsets the stomach of the ocean by threatening marine life and the environment. Consumers throw the waste into the ocean after using it. Most of them are plastics that float over the ocean and turn into thousands of micro pieces that are hard to observe with the naked eye but easily eaten by the sea species. Eventually, that conflicts with the natural consumption process of any living species, making them sick. This information is not known by most consumers who go to the sea or seashores occasionally to spend time, nor is it widely discussed, which creates an information gap among consumers. However, advertising is a powerful tool to educate people about ocean pollution. This abstract analyzes three major ocean-saving advertisement campaigns that use innovative and advanced technology to get maximum exposure. The study collects data from the selected campaigns' websites and retrieves all available content related to messages, videos, and images. First, the SeaLegacy campaign uses stunning images to create awareness among the people; they use social media content, videos, and other educational content. They create content and strategies to build an emotional connection among the consumers that encourage them to move on an action. All the messages in their campaign empower consumers by using powerful words. Second, Ocean Conservancy Campaign uses social media marketing, events, and educational content to protect the ocean from various pollutants, including plastics, climate change, and overfishing. They use powerful images and videos of marine life. Their mission is to create evidence-based solutions toward a healthy ocean. Their message includes the message regarding the local communities along with the sea species. Third, ocean clean-up is a campaign that applies strategies using innovative technologies to remove plastic waste from the ocean. They use social media, digital, and email marketing to reach people and raise awareness. They also use images and videos to evoke an emotional response to take action. These tree advertisements use realistic images, powerful words, and the presence of living species in the imagery presentation, which are eye-catching and can grow emotional connection among the consumers. Identifying the effectiveness of the messages these advertisements carry and their strategies highlights the knowledge gap of mass people between real pollution and its consequences, making the message more accessible to the mass of people. This study aims to provide insights into the effectiveness of ocean-saving advertisement campaigns and their impact on the public's awareness of ocean conservation. The findings from this study help shape future campaigns.

Keywords: advertising-campaign, content-creation, images ocean-saving technology, videos

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Authors: Khachen Kongpakwattana, Nathorn Chaiyakunapruk

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Background: Decision-analytic models for Alzheimer’s disease (AD) have been advanced to discrete-event simulation (DES), in which individual-level modelling of disease progression across continuous severity spectra and incorporation of key parameters such as treatment persistence into the model become feasible. This study aimed to apply the DES to perform a cost-effectiveness analysis of treatment for AD in Thailand. Methods: A dataset of Thai patients with AD, representing unique demographic and clinical characteristics, was bootstrapped to generate a baseline cohort of patients. Each patient was cloned and assigned to donepezil, galantamine, rivastigmine, memantine or no treatment. Throughout the simulation period, the model randomly assigned each patient to discrete events including hospital visits, treatment discontinuation and death. Correlated changes in cognitive and behavioral status over time were developed using patient-level data. Treatment effects were obtained from the most recent network meta-analysis. Treatment persistence, mortality and predictive equations for functional status, costs (Thai baht (THB) in 2017) and quality-adjusted life year (QALY) were derived from country-specific real-world data. The time horizon was 10 years, with a discount rate of 3% per annum. Cost-effectiveness was evaluated based on the willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of 160,000 THB/QALY gained (4,994 US$/QALY gained) in Thailand. Results: Under a societal perspective, only was the prescription of donepezil to AD patients with all disease-severity levels found to be cost-effective. Compared to untreated patients, although the patients receiving donepezil incurred a discounted additional costs of 2,161 THB, they experienced a discounted gain in QALY of 0.021, resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of 138,524 THB/QALY (4,062 US$/QALY). Besides, providing early treatment with donepezil to mild AD patients further reduced the ICER to 61,652 THB/QALY (1,808 US$/QALY). However, the dominance of donepezil appeared to wane when delayed treatment was given to a subgroup of moderate and severe AD patients [ICER: 284,388 THB/QALY (8,340 US$/QALY)]. Introduction of a treatment stopping rule when the Mini-Mental State Exam (MMSE) score goes below 10 to a mild AD cohort did not deteriorate the cost-effectiveness of donepezil at the current treatment persistence level. On the other hand, none of the AD medications was cost-effective when being considered under a healthcare perspective. Conclusions: The DES greatly enhances real-world representativeness of decision-analytic models for AD. Under a societal perspective, treatment with donepezil improves patient’s quality of life and is considered cost-effective when used to treat AD patients with all disease-severity levels in Thailand. The optimal treatment benefits are observed when donepezil is prescribed since the early course of AD. With healthcare budget constraints in Thailand, the implementation of donepezil coverage may be most likely possible when being considered starting with mild AD patients, along with the stopping rule introduced.

Keywords: Alzheimer's disease, cost-effectiveness analysis, discrete event simulation, health technology assessment

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Authors: B. Shaw, K. Doherty

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The Cultural Communication and Computing Research Institute (C3RI) is a diverse multidisciplinary research institute including art, design, media production, communication studies, computing and engineering. Across these disciplines it can seem like there are enormous differences of research practice and convention, including differing positions on objectivity and subjectivity, certainty and evidence, and different political and ethical parameters. These differences sit within, often unacknowledged, histories, codes, and communication styles of specific disciplines, and it is all these aspects that can make understanding of research practice across disciplines difficult. To explore this, a one day event was orchestrated, testing how a PhD community might communicate and share research in progress in a multi-disciplinary context. Instead of presenting results at a conference, research students were tasked to articulate their method of inquiry. A working party of students from across disciplines had to design a conference call, visual identity and an event framework that would work for students across all disciplines. The process of establishing the shape and identity of the conference was revealing. Even finding a linguistic frame that would meet the expectations of different disciplines for the conference call was challenging. The first abstracts submitted either resorted to reporting findings, or only described method briefly. It took several weeks of supported intervention for research students to get ‘inside’ their method and to understand their research practice as a process rich with philosophical and practical decisions and implications. In response to the abstracts the conference committee generated key methodological categories for conference sessions, including sampling, capturing ‘experience’, ‘making models’, researcher identities, and ‘constructing data’. Each session involved presentations by visual artists, communications students and computing researchers with inter-disciplinary dialogue, facilitated by alumni Chairs. The apparently simple focus on method illuminated research process as a site of creativity, innovation and discovery, and also built epistemological awareness, drawing attention to what is being researched and how it can be known. It was surprisingly difficult to limit students to discussing method, and it was apparent that the vocabulary available for method is sometimes limited. However, by focusing on method rather than results, the genuine process of research, rather than one constructed for approval, could be captured. In unlocking the twists and turns of planning and implementing research, and the impact of circumstance and contingency, students had to reflect frankly on successes and failures. This level of self – and public- critique emphasised the degree of critical thinking and rigour required in executing research and demonstrated that honest reportage of research, faults and all, is good valid research. The process also revealed the degree that disciplines can learn from each other- the computing students gained insights from the sensitive social contextualizing generated by communications and art and design students, and art and design students gained understanding from the greater ‘distance’ and emphasis on application that computing students applied to their subjects. Finding the means to develop dialogue across disciplines makes researchers better equipped to devise and tackle research problems across disciplines, potentially laying the ground for more effective collaboration.

Keywords: interdisciplinary, method, research student, training

Procedia PDF Downloads 183

Authors: Habiba Nahzat, Karen Crow, Lisa Manuel, Maria Huijbregts

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Background and Rationale: The World Health Organization (WHO) declared COVID-19 a pandemic on March 11, 2020. Shortly after, the Ontario provincial and Toronto municipal governments also released multiple directives that led to the mass closure of businesses both in the public and private sectors. Recent research has identified connections between Intimate Partner Violence (IPV) and COVID-19 related stressors - especially because of lockdown and social isolation measures. Psychological impacts of lengthy seclusion coupled with disconnection from extended family and diminished support services can take a toll on families at risk and may increase mental health issues and the prevalence of IPV. Research Question: Thus, the purpose of the study was to understand the perspective of the Violence Against Women (VAW) program staff on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic; we especially wanted to understand staff views of restrictions on clients’ counseling experiences and the ability to access services in general. The study also aimed to examine VAW program staff experiences regarding remote work and explore how the pandemic restriction measures affected the ability of their program operations to support their clients and each other. Method: A cross-sectional, descriptive qualitative study was conducted with a purposive sample of 9 VAW program staff – eight VAW counselors and one VAW manager. Prior to data collection, program staff collaborated in the development of the study purpose, interview questions and methodology. Ethics approval was obtained from the sponsoring organization’s Research Ethics Board. In-depth individual interviews were conducted with study participants using a semi-structured interview questionnaire. Brief demographic information was also collected prior to the interview. Descriptive statistics were used to analyze quantitative data and qualitative data was analyzed by thematic content analysis. Results: Findings from this study indicate that the COVID-19 pandemic restrictions had an adverse impact on clients seeking VAW services based on VAW staff perspectives. Program staff reported a perceived increase in abuse among women, especially in emotional and financial abuse and experiences of isolation and trauma. Findings further highlight the challenges women experienced when trying to access services in general as well as counseling and legal services. This was perceived to be more prominent among newcomers and marginalized women. The study also revealed client and staff challenges when participating in virtual counseling, their innovations and clients’ creativity in accessing needed counseling and how staff over time adapted to providing virtual support during the pandemic. Conclusion and Next Steps: This study builds upon existing evidence on the impact of COVID-19 restrictions on VAW and may inform future research to better understand the association between the COVID-19 pandemic restrictions and VAW on a broader scale and to inform and support possible short-term and long-term changes in the client experience and counselling practice.

Keywords: COVID-19, pandemic, virtual, violence against women (VAW)

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Authors: Teresa Rushe, Nicole Devlin, Tara O Neill

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In this study, we sought to examine associations between childhood experiences of community and collective violence and psychological functioning in young people who grew up in post-conflict Northern Ireland. We hypothesized that those who grew up with such experiences would demonstrate internalizing and externalizing difficulties in early adulthood and, furthermore, that these difficulties would be mediated by adverse childhood experiences occurring within the home environment. As part of the Northern Ireland Childhood Adversity Study, we recruited 213 young people aged 18-25 years (108 males) who grew up in the post-conflict society of Northern Ireland using purposive sampling. Participants completed a digital questionnaire to measure adverse childhood experiences as well as aspects of psychological functioning. We employed the Adverse Childhood Experience -International Questionnaire (ACE-IQ¬) adaptation of the original Adverse Childhood Experiences Questionnaire (ACE) as it additionally measured aspects of witnessing community violence (e.g., seeing someone being beaten/killed, fights) and experiences of collective violence (e.g., war, terrorism, police, or gangs’ battles exposure) during the first 18 years of life. 51% of our sample reported experiences of community and/or collective violence (N=108). Compared to young people with no such experiences (N=105), they also reported significantly more adverse experiences indicative of household dysfunction (e.g., family substance misuse, mental illness or domestic violence in the family, incarceration of a family member) but not more experiences of abuse or neglect. As expected, young people who grew up with the community and/or collective violence reported significantly higher anxiety and depression scores and were more likely to engage in acts of deliberate self-harm (internalizing symptoms). They also started drinking and taking drugs at a younger age and were significantly more likely to have been in trouble with the police (externalizing symptoms). When the type of violence exposure was separated by whether the violence was witnessed (community violence) or more directly experienced (collective violence), we found community and collective violence to have similar effects on externalizing symptoms, but for internalizing symptoms, we found evidence of a differential effect. Collective violence was associated with depressive symptoms, whereas witnessing community violence was associated with anxiety-type symptoms and deliberate self-harm. However, when experiences of household dysfunction were entered into the models predicting anxiety, depression, and deliberate self-harm, none of the main effects remained significant. This suggests internalizing type symptoms are mediated by immediate family-level experiences. By contrast, significant community and collective violence effects on externalizing behaviours: younger initiation of alcohol use, younger initiation of drug use, and getting into trouble with the police persisted after controlling for family-level factors and thus are directly associated with growing up with the community and collective violence. Given the cross-sectional nature of our study, we cannot comment on the direction of the effect. However, post-hoc correlational analyses revealed associations between externalising behaviours and personal factors, including greater risk-taking and young age at puberty. The implications of the findings will be discussed in relation to interventions for young people and families living with the community and collective violence.

Keywords: community and collective violence, adverse childhood experiences, youth, psychological wellbeing

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Authors: Rodrigo Arnaldo Scarpel

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Trend following is a widely accepted investment strategy that adopts a rule-based trading mechanism that rather than striving to predict market direction or on information gathering to decide when to buy and when to sell a stock. Thus, in trend following one must respond to market’s movements that has recently happen and what is currently happening, rather than on what will happen. Optimally, in trend following strategy, is to catch a bull market at its early stage, ride the trend, and liquidate the position at the first evidence of the subsequent bear market. For applying the trend following strategy one needs to find the trend and identify trade signals. In order to avoid false signals, i.e., identify fluctuations of short, mid and long terms and to separate noise from real changes in the trend, most academic works rely on moving averages and other technical analysis indicators, such as the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) and the relative strength index (RSI) to uncover intelligible stock trading rules following trend following strategy philosophy. Recently, some works has applied machine learning techniques for trade rules discovery. In those works, the process of rule construction is based on evolutionary learning which aims to adapt the rules to the current environment and searches for the global optimum rules in the search space. In this work, instead of focusing on the usage of machine learning techniques for creating trading rules, a time series trend classification employing a semi-supervised approach was used to early identify both the beginning and the end of upward and downward trends. Such classification model can be employed to identify trade signals and the decision-making procedure is that if an up-trend (down-trend) is identified, a buy (sell) signal is generated. Semi-supervised learning is used for model training when only part of the data is labeled and Semi-supervised classification aims to train a classifier from both the labeled and unlabeled data, such that it is better than the supervised classifier trained only on the labeled data. For illustrating the proposed approach, it was employed daily trade information, including the open, high, low and closing values and volume from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2022, of the São Paulo Exchange Composite index (IBOVESPA). Through this time period it was visually identified consistent changes in price, upwards or downwards, for assigning labels and leaving the rest of the days (when there is not a consistent change in price) unlabeled. For training the classification model, a pseudo-label semi-supervised learning strategy was used employing different technical analysis indicators. In this learning strategy, the core is to use unlabeled data to generate a pseudo-label for supervised training. For evaluating the achieved results, it was considered the annualized return and excess return, the Sortino and the Sharpe indicators. Through the evaluated time period, the obtained results were very consistent and can be considered promising for generating the intended trading signals.

Keywords: evolutionary learning, semi-supervised classification, time series data, trading signals generation

Procedia PDF Downloads 56