Search results for: Carolyn Jenkins

Authors: Kunya Bowornchockchai

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The objective of this research is to forecast the monthly exchange rate between Thai baht and the US dollar and to compare two forecasting methods. The methods are Box-Jenkins’ method and Holt’s method. Results show that the Box-Jenkins’ method is the most suitable method for the monthly Exchange Rate between Thai Baht and the US Dollar. The suitable forecasting model is ARIMA (1,1,0)  without constant and the forecasting equation is Y_t = Y_t-1 + 0.3691 (Y_t-1 - Y_t-2) When Y_t  is the time series data at time t, respectively.

Keywords: Box–Jenkins method, Holt’s method, mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), exchange rate

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Authors: Jonas Pedro Fabris, Alberth Almeida Amorim Souza, Maria Emilia Camargo, Suzana Leitão Russo

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With the law Nº. 9279, of May 14, 1996, the Brazilian government regulates rights and obligations relating to industrial property considering the economic development of the country as granting patents, trademark registration, registration of industrial designs and other forms of protection copyright. In this study, we show the application of the methodology of Box and Jenkins in the series of deposits of industrial design at the National Institute of Industrial Property for the period from May 1996 to April 2013. First, a graphical analysis of the data was done by observing the behavior of the data and the autocorrelation function. The best model found, based on the analysis of charts and statistical tests suggested by Box and Jenkins methodology, it was possible to determine the model number for the deposit of industrial design, SARIMA (2,1,0)(2,0,0), with an equal to 9.88% MAPE.

Keywords: ARIMA models, autocorrelation, Box and Jenkins Models, industrial design, MAPE, time series

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Authors: Hirofumi Miyajima, Kazuya Kishida, Noritaka Shigei, Hiromi Miyajima

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Most of self-tuning fuzzy systems, which are automatically constructed from learning data, are based on the steepest descent method (SDM). However, this approach often requires a large convergence time and gets stuck into a shallow local minimum. One of its solutions is to use fuzzy rule modules with a small number of inputs such as DIRMs (Double-Input Rule Modules) and SIRMs (Single-Input Rule Modules). In this paper, we consider a (generalized) DIRMs model composed of double and single-input rule modules. Further, in order to reduce the redundant modules for the (generalized) DIRMs model, pruning and generative learning algorithms for the model are suggested. In order to show the effectiveness of them, numerical simulations for function approximation, Box-Jenkins and obstacle avoidance problems are performed.

Keywords: Box-Jenkins's problem, double-input rule module, fuzzy inference model, obstacle avoidance, single-input rule module

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Authors: Yoji Yamato

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In this paper, we propose an automatic verification technology of software patches for user virtual environments on IaaS Cloud to decrease verification costs of patches. In these days, IaaS services have been spread and many users can customize virtual machines on IaaS Cloud like their own private servers. Regarding to software patches of OS or middleware installed on virtual machines, users need to adopt and verify these patches by themselves. This task increases operation costs of users. Our proposed method replicates user virtual environments, extracts verification test cases for user virtual environments from test case DB, distributes patches to virtual machines on replicated environments and conducts those test cases automatically on replicated environments. We have implemented the proposed method on OpenStack using Jenkins and confirmed the feasibility. Using the implementation, we confirmed the effectiveness of test case creation efforts by our proposed idea of 2-tier abstraction of software functions and test cases. We also evaluated the automatic verification performance of environment replications, test cases extractions and test cases conductions.

Keywords: OpenStack, cloud computing, automatic verification, jenkins

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Authors: Arti Singh, Carolyn Jenkins, Oyedunni S. Arulogun, Mayowa O. Owolabi, Fred S. Sarfo, Bruce Ovbiagele, Enzinne Sylvia

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Background: Stroke, the leading cause of adult-onset disability and the second leading cause of death, is a major public health concern particularly pertinent in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), where nearly 80% of all global stroke mortalities occur. The Stroke Investigative Research and Education Network (SIREN) seeks to comprehensively characterize the genomic, sociocultural, economic, and behavioral risk factors for stroke and to build effective teams for research to address and decrease the burden of stroke and other non communicable diseases in SSA. One of the first steps to address this goal was to effectively engage the communities that suffer the high burden of disease in SSA. This study describes how the SIREN project engaged six sites in Ghana and Nigeria over the past three years, describing the community engagement activities that have arisen since inception. Aim: The aim of community engagement (CE) within SIREN is to elucidate information about knowledge, attitudes, beliefs, and practices (KABP) about stroke and its risk factors from individuals of African ancestry in SSA, and to educate the community about stroke and ways to decrease disabilities and deaths from stroke using socioculturally appropriate messaging and messengers. Methods: Community Advisory Board (CABs), Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) and community outreach programs. Results: 27 FGDs with 168 participants including community heads, religious leaders, health professionals and individuals with stroke among others, were conducted, and over 60 CE outreaches have been conducted within the SIREN performance sites. Over 5,900 individuals have received education on cardiovascular risk factors and about 5,000 have been screened for cardiovascular risk factors during the outreaches. FGDs and outreach programs indicate that knowledge of stroke, as well as risk factors and follow-up evidence-based care is limited and often late. Other findings include: 1) Most recognize hypertension as a major risk factor for stroke. 2) About 50% report that stroke is hereditary and about 20% do not know organs affected by stroke. 3) More than 95% willing to participate in genetic testing research and about 85% willing to pay for testing and recommend the test to others. 4) Almost all indicated that genetic testing could help health providers better treat stroke and help scientists better understand the causes of stroke. The CABs provided stakeholder input into SIREN activities and facilitated collaborations among investigators, community members and stakeholders. Conclusion: The CE core within SIREN is a first-of-its kind public outreach engagement initiative to evaluate and address perceptions about stroke and genomics by patients, caregivers, and local leaders in SSA and has implications as a model for assessment in other high-stroke risk populations. SIREN’s CE program uses best practices to build capacity for community-engaged research, accelerate integration of research findings into practice and strengthen dynamic community-academic partnerships within our communities. CE has had several major successes over the past three years including our multi-site collaboration examining the KABP about stroke (symptoms, risk factors, burden) and genetic testing across SSA.

Keywords: community advisory board, community engagement, focus groups, outreach, SSA, stroke

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Authors: Loke Mun Sei

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Software testing has become a mandatory process in assuring the software product quality. Hence, test management is needed in order to manage the test activities conducted in the software test life cycle. This paper discusses on the challenges faced in the software test life cycle, and how the test processes and test activities, mainly on test cases creation, test execution, and test reporting is being managed and automated using several test automation tools, i.e. Jira, Robot Framework, and Jenkins.

Keywords: test automation tools, test case, test execution, test reporting

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Authors: Ya-Ting Carolyn Yang, Ping-Han Cheng, Shi-Hui Gilbert Chang, Terry Yuan-Fang Chen, Chih-Chieh Li

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Nanotechnology is widely applied in various areas so professionals in the related fields have to know more than nano knowledge. In the study, we focus on adopting ICT-assisted PBL in college general education to foster professionals who possess multiple abilities. The research adopted a pretest and posttest quasi-experimental design. The control group received traditional instruction, and the experimental group received ICT-assisted PBL instruction. Descriptive statistics will be used to describe the means, standard deviations, and adjusted means for the tests between the two groups. Next, analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) will be used to compare the final results of the two research groups after 6 weeks of instruction. Statistics gathered in the end of the research can be used to make contrasts. Therefore, we will see how different teaching strategies can improve students’ understanding about nanotechnology and learning skills.

Keywords: nanotechnology, science education, project-based learning, information and communication technology

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Authors: Armineh Nourbakhsh, Sameena Shah, Carolyn Rose

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Layout-aware language models have been used to create multimodal representations for documents that are in image form, achieving relatively high accuracy in document understanding tasks. However, the large number of parameters in the resulting models makes building and using them prohibitive without access to high-performing processing units with large memory capacity. We propose an alternative approach that can create efficient representations without the need for a neural visual backbone. This leads to an 80% reduction in the number of parameters compared to the smallest SOTA model, widely expanding applicability. In addition, our layout embeddings are pre-trained on spatial and visual cues alone and only fused with text embeddings in downstream tasks, which can facilitate applicability to low-resource of multi-lingual domains. Despite using 2.5% of training data, we show competitive performance on two form understanding tasks: semantic labeling and link prediction.

Keywords: layout understanding, form understanding, multimodal document understanding, bias-augmented attention

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Authors: Carolyn B. Mires, David L. Lee, David B. McNaughton

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High school students’ with emotional and behavioral disorders (EBD) are one of the most underserved populations in today's schools. Using a multiple case study methodology, interviews were conducted to examine current practices and perceptions of the communication practices of teachers working with high school students with EBD. These interviews involved questions about general communication instances which occurred each week, communication strategies used each week, and how progress was being made on forming relationships with parents. Results confirm previous researchers’ hypotheses regarding methods, purposes, and regularity of positive communication incidences. Communication that met the positive goals of nurturing and maintaining relationships was open and frequent, reciprocal, and informal. Limitations are discussed as well as issues of trustworthiness. The case study concludes with a discussion and suggestions for high school special educators of students with EBD.

Keywords: emotional behavioral disorders, high school adolescence, home-school communication, relationships between parents and schools

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Authors: David C. Ni

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In the previous efforts, we constructed N-Body Systems by an extended Blaschke product (EBP), which represents a non-temporal and nonlinear extension of Lorentz transformation. In this construction, we rely only on two parameters, nonlinear degree, and relative momentum to characterize the systems. We further explored root computation via iteration with an algorithm extended from Jenkins-Traub method. The solution sets demonstrate a form of σ+ i [-t, t], where σ and t are the real numbers, and the [-t, t] shows various canonical distributions. In this paper, we correlate the convergent sets in the original domain with solution sets, which demonstrating large-deviation distributions in the codomain. We proceed to compare our approach with the formula or principles, such as Donsker-Varadhan and Wentzell-Freidlin theories. The deterministic model based on this construction allows us to explore applications in the areas of finance and statistical mechanics.

Keywords: nonlinear Lorentz transformation, Blaschke equation, iteration solutions, root computation, large deviation distribution, deterministic model

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Authors: W. H. Wan Zakiyatussariroh, A. A. Nasuhar, W. Y. Wan Fairos, Z. A. Nazatul Shahreen

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Forecasting dengue incidence in a population can provide useful information to facilitate the planning of the public health intervention. Many studies on dengue cases in Malaysia were conducted but are limited in modeling the outbreak and forecasting incidence. This article attempts to propose the most appropriate time series model to explain the behavior of dengue incidence in Malaysia for the purpose of forecasting future dengue outbreaks. Several seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models were developed to model Malaysia’s number of dengue incidence on weekly data collected from January 2001 to December 2011. SARIMA (2,1,1)(1,1,1)52 model was found to be the most suitable model for Malaysia’s dengue incidence with the least value of Akaike information criteria (AIC) and Bayesian information criteria (BIC) for in-sample fitting. The models further evaluate out-sample forecast accuracy using four different accuracy measures. The results indicate that SARIMA (2,1,1)(1,1,1)52 performed well for both in-sample fitting and out-sample evaluation.

Keywords: time series modeling, Box-Jenkins, SARIMA, forecasting

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Authors: Andrea J. Kirk-Jenkins

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Women in late adolescence and young adulthood are particularly vulnerable to disordered eating, and prior research indicates that those within the college and sorority communities may be especially susceptible. Research has primarily involved comparing eating disorder symptoms between sorority women and non-sorority members using formal eating disorder assessments. This phenomenological study examined sorority members’ (N = 10) perceptions of and lived experiences with various disordered eating behaviors within the sorority culture. Data from individual interviews and photographs indicated two structural themes and 11 textural themes related to factors associated with disordered eating behaviors. These findings point to the existence of both positive and negative aspects of sorority culture, normalization of disordered eating behaviors, and pressure to attain or maintain an ideal body image. Implications for university stakeholders, including college counselors, health center staff, and extracurricular program leaders, are discussed. Further research on the identified textural themes as well as a longitudinal study exploring how perceptions change from rush to alumnae status is suggested.

Keywords: eating disorders, disorder eating behaviors, sorority women, sorority culture, college women

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Authors: Baki Dursun, Kemal Benk

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English as a Lingua Franca (ELF) has become an increasingly hot topic in many of the developing countries including Turkey. Likewise, in most of these expanding circle countries the way of teaching English has been redesigned in accordance with Lingua Franca Core. Admittedly, the focus was on Grammar-based teaching formerly; however, with the introduction of the ELF, the shift is now more on teaching speaking abilities and strategies of negotiation of meaning. However, there are several reasons for this shift, one of the major contributions stems from the teacher training programs offered by Turkish universities as M.A. programs. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to compare and contrast the similarities and divergences among the instructors who have taken ELF classes in their teacher-training program and those who have not. With a longitudinal design, for five months, classes of two different groups of teachers (ELF Group vs. Traditional Group) have been observed and three teachers have been selected for each group. During the observations, principles of Lingua Franca Core offered by Jenkins have been taken into account and used to form the rubric for the observations. After the five-month period, a Likert scale type questionnaire has been given to the students to explore their level of anxiety while speaking. Independent samples t-test have been administered to see the groups differences statistically. The results of the study will be presented during the conference.

Keywords: ELF, teacher training, speaking, anxiety

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Authors: Adewale Oladapo, Carolyn A. Afolami

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Agricultural production should be the major financial contributor to the Nigerian economy; however, the petroleum sector had taken the importance attached to this sector. The situation tends to be more worsening unless necessary attention is given to adequate credit supply among food crop farmers. This research analyses the effect of credit use on the technical efficiency of cassava farmers in Ondo State, Nigeria. Primary data were collected from two hundred randomly selected cassava farmers through a multistage sampling procedure in the study area. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics and stochastic frontier analysis (SFA). Findings revealed that 95.0% of the farmers were male while 56.0% had no formal education and were married. The SFA showed that cassava farmer’s efficiency increased with farm size, herbicide and planting material at 5%,10% and 1% respectively but decreased with fertilizer application at 1% level while farmers’ age, education, household size, experience and access to credit increased technical inefficiency at 10%. The study concluded that cassava farmers are technically inefficient in the use of farm resources and recommended that adequate and workable agricultural policy measures that will ensure availability and efficient fertilizer distribution should be put in place to increase efficiency. Furthermore, the government should encourage youth participation in cassava production and ensure improvement in farmer’s access to credit to increase farmer’s technical efficiency.

Keywords: agriculture, access to credit, cassava farmers, technical efficiency

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Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi, Abdolrasoul Telvari, Hossein Babazadeh

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Floods have huge environmental and economic impact. Therefore, flood prediction is given a lot of attention due to its importance. This study analysed the annual maximum streamflow (discharge) (AMS or AMD) of Karkheh River in Karkheh River Basin for flood predicting using ARIMA model. For this purpose, we use the Box-Jenkins approach, which contains four-stage method model identification, parameter estimation, diagnostic checking and forecasting (predicting). The main tool used in ARIMA modelling was the SAS and SPSS software. Model identification was done by visual inspection on the ACF and PACF. SAS software computed the model parameters using the ML, CLS and ULS methods. The diagnostic checking tests, AIC criterion, RACF graph and RPACF graphs, were used for selected model verification. In this study, the best ARIMA models for Annual Maximum Discharge (AMD) time series was (4,1,1) with their AIC value of 88.87. The RACF and RPACF showed residuals’ independence. To forecast AMD for 10 future years, this model showed the ability of the model to predict floods of the river under study in the Karkheh River Basin. Model accuracy was checked by comparing the predicted and observation series by using coefficient of determination (R²).

Keywords: time series modelling, stochastic processes, ARIMA model, Karkheh river

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Authors: A. Chabert

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The present paper is motivated by the current influence of communicative approaches in language policies around the globe (especially through the Common European Framework of Reference), along with the exponential spread of English as a Lingua Franca worldwide. This study focuses on English language learning and teaching in the last year of primary education in Spain (in the bilingual Valencian region), Norway (in the Trondelag region), and China (in the Hunan region) and proposes a plurilingual communicative approach to ELT in line with ELF awareness and the current retheorisation of ELF within multilingualism (Jenkins, 2018). This study, interdisciplinary in nature, attempts to find a convergence point among English Language Teaching, English as a Lingua Franca, Language Ecology and Multilingualism, breaking with the boundaries that separate languages in language teaching and acknowledging English as international communication, while protecting the mother tongue and language diversity within multilingualism. Our experiment included over 400 students across Spain, Norway, and China, and the outcomes obtained demonstrate that despite the different factors involved in different cultures and contexts, a plurilingual approach to English learning improved English scores by 20% in each of the contexts. Through our study, we reflect on the underestimated value of the mother tongue in ELT, as well as the need for a sustainable ELF perspective in education worldwide.

Keywords: English as a Lingua Franca, English language teaching, language ecology, multilingualism

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Authors: Aina Barcelona, Carolyn Oldham, Jordi Colomer, Jordi Garcia-Orellana, Teresa Serra

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Seagrass meadows increase the sedimentation within the canopy. However, there is still a lack of knowledge about how seagrasses impact the vertical distribution of sediment coming from external sources and reaches the meadow. This study aims to determine the number of particles retained by a seagrass meadow. Based on the hydrodynamics in the vertical direction, a meadow can be separated into different compartments: the blades, the seabed, within the canopy layer, and the above canopy layer. A set of laboratory experiments were conducted under different hydrodynamic conditions and canopy densities with the purpose to mimic the real field conditions. This study demonstrates and quantifies that seagrass meadows decrease the volume of the suspended sediment by two mechanisms: capturing the suspended sediment by the seagrass blades and promoting the particle sedimentation to the seabed. This study also demonstrates that the number of sediment particles trapped by single seagrass blades decreases with canopy density. However, when considering the trapping by the total number of blades, the sediment captured by all the blades of the meadow increases with canopy density. Furthermore, comparing with the bare seabed, this study demonstrated that there is a reduction in the suspended particles within the canopy, which implies an improvement in the water clarity. In addition, the particle sedimentation on the seabed increases with the canopy density compared with the bare seabed, making evident the contribution of the vegetation in enhancing sedimentation.

Keywords: seagrass, sediment capture, turbulent kinetic energy, oscillatory flow

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Authors: Laura Jenkins, Tim Eschle, Joanne Ciafone, Colin Hamilton

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An original working memory model suggested the separation of visual and verbal systems in working memory architecture, in which only visual working memory components were used during visual working memory tasks. It was later suggested that the visuo spatial sketch pad was the only memory component at use during visual working memory tasks, and components such as the phonological loop were not considered. In more recent years, a contrasting approach has been developed with the use of an executive resource to incorporate both visual and verbal representations in visual working memory paradigms. This was supported using research demonstrating the use of verbal representations and an executive resource in a visual matrix patterns task. The aim of the current research is to investigate the working memory architecture during both a quantitative and a qualitative visual working memory task. A dual task method will be used. Three secondary tasks will be used which are designed to hit specific components within the working memory architecture – Dynamic Visual Noise (visual components), Visual Attention (spatial components) and Verbal Attention (verbal components). A comparison of the visual working memory tasks will be made to discover if verbal representations are at use, as the previous literature suggested. This direct comparison has not been made so far in the literature. Considerations will be made as to whether a domain specific approach should be employed when discussing visual working memory tasks, or whether a more domain general approach could be used instead.

Keywords: semantic organisation, visual memory, change detection

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Authors: Maciej Bialorudzki, Zbigniew Izdebski, Alicja Kozakiewicz, Joanna Mazur

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The quality of sleep is extremely important for physical and mental health, especially among professional groups exposed to the suffering of the people they serve. The aim of the study is to assess sleep quality and various aspects of physical and mental health. A nationwide cross-sectional survey conducted in the first quarter of 2022 included 2227 healthcare professionals from 114 Polish hospitals and specialized outpatient clinics. The following distribution for each professional group was obtained (22% doctors; 52.6% nurses; 7.3% paramedics; 10.1% other medical professionals; 7.9% other non-medical professionals). The mean age of the respondents was 46.24 (SD=11.53). The Jenkins Sleep Scale with four items (JSS-4) was used to assess sleep quality, yielding a mean value of 5.35 (SD=5.20) in the study group and 13.7% of subjects with poor sleep quality using the cutoff point of the mean JSS-4 sum score as >11. More often, women than men reported poorer sleep quality (14,8% vs. 9,1% p=0,002). Respondents with poor sleep quality were more likely to report occupational burnout as measured by the BAT-12 (43.1% vs. 12.9% p<0.001) and high levels of stress as measured by the PSS-4 (72.5% vs. 27.5% p<0.001). In addition, those who declare experiencing a traumatic event compared to those who have not experienced it has an almost two times higher risk of poorer sleep quality (OR:1.958; 95% CI:1.509-2.542; p<0.001). In contrast, those with occupational burnout had more than five times the risk of those without occupational burnout (OR:5.092; 95% CI: 3.763-6.889; p<0.001). Sleep quality remains an important predictor of stress levels, job burnout, and quality of life assessment.

Keywords: quality of sleep, medical staff, mental health, physical health, occupational burnout, stress

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Authors: Carolyn Whyte, Tina Halai, Sonita Koshal

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Aim: There are many methods available to assess the potential difficulty of third molar surgery. This study investigated various factors to assess whether they had a bearing on the difficulties encountered. Study design: A retrospective study was completed of 62 single mandibular third molar teeth removed under day case general anaesthesia between May 2016 and August 2016 by 3 consultant oral surgeons. Method: Data collection was by examining the OPG radiographs of each tooth and recording the necessary data. This was depth of impaction, angulation, bony impaction, point of application in relation to second molar, root morphology, Pell and Gregory classification and Winters Lines. This was completed by one assessor and verified by another. Information on medical history, anxiety, ethnicity and age were recorded. Case notes and surgical entries were examined for any difficulties encountered. Results: There were 5 cases which encountered surgical difficulties which included fracture of root apices (3) which were left in situ, prolonged bleeding (1) and post-operative numbness >6 months(1). Four of the 5 cases had Pell and Gregory classification as (B) where the occlusal plane of the impacted tooth is between the occlusal plane and the cervical line of the adjacent tooth. 80% of cases had the point of application as either coronal or apical one third (1/3) in relation to the second molar. However, there was variability in all other aspects of assessment in predicting difficulty of removal. Conclusions: Of the cases which encountered difficulties they all had at least one predictor of potential complexity but these varied case by case.

Keywords: impaction, mandibular third molar, radiographic assessment, surgical removal

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Authors: Aina Barcelona, Carolyn Oldham, Jordi Colomer, Teresa Serra

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The loss of seagrass meadows worldwide is being tackled by formulating coastal restoration strategies. Seagrass loss results in a network of vegetated patches which are barely interconnected, and consequently, the ecological services they provide may be highly compromised. Hence, there is a need to optimize coastal management efforts in order to implement successful restoration strategies, not only through modifying the architecture of the canopies but also by gathering together information on the hydrodynamic conditions of the seabeds. To obtain information on the hydrodynamics within the patches of vegetation, this study deals with the scale analysis of the minimum lengths of patch management strategies that can be effectively used on. To this aim, a set of laboratory experiments were conducted in a laboratory flume where the plant densities, patch lengths, and hydrodynamic conditions were varied to discern the vegetated patch lengths that can provide optimal ecosystem services for canopy development. Two possible patch behaviours based on the turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) production were determined: one where plants do not interact with the flow and the other where plants interact with waves and produce TKE. Furthermore, this study determines the minimum patch lengths that can provide successful management restoration. A canopy will produce TKE, depending on its density, the length of the vegetated patch, and the wave velocities. Therefore, a vegetated patch will produce plant-wave interaction under high wave velocities when it presents large lengths and high canopy densities.

Keywords: seagrass, minimum patch size, turbulent kinetic energy, oscillatory flow

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Authors: Zhuoneng Li, Zeeshan A. Rana, Karl W. Jenkins

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In industry, to validate a case, often a multitude of simulation are required and in order to demonstrate confidence in the process where users tend to use a coarser mesh. Therefore, it is imperative to establish the coarsest mesh that could be used while keeping reasonable simulation accuracy. To date, the two most reliable, affordable and broadly used advanced simulations are the hybrid RANS (Reynolds Averaged Navier Stokes)/LES (Large Eddy Simulation) and wall modelled LES. The potentials in these two simulations will still be developed in the next decades mainly because the unaffordable computational cost of a DNS (Direct Numerical Simulation). In the wall modelled LES, the turbulence model is applied as a sub-grid scale model in the most inner layer near the wall. The RANS turbulence models cover the entire boundary layer region in a hybrid RANS/LES (Detached Eddy Simulation) and its variants, therefore, the RANS still has a very important role in the state of art simulations. This research focuses on the turbulence model mesh sensitivity analysis where various turbulence models such as the S-A (Spalart-Allmaras), SSG (Speziale-Sarkar-Gatski), K-Omega transitional SST (Shear Stress Transport), K-kl-Omega, γ-Reθ transitional model, v2f are evaluated within the OpenFOAM. The simulations are conducted on a fully developed turbulent flow over a flat plate where the skin friction coefficient as well as velocity profiles are obtained to compare against experimental values and DNS results. A concrete conclusion is made to clarify the mesh sensitivity for different turbulence models.

Keywords: mesh sensitivity, turbulence models, OpenFOAM, RANS

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Authors: Adam Jenkins

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The Maritime RobotX Challenge provides a platform for postgraduate students conducting research in autonomous robotic systems to participate in an international competition. Although targeted to postgraduate students, the problem domain lends itself to a wide range of different levels of student expertise. In 2022, undergraduate Information Technology students from the University of South Australia undertook the challenge, utilizing a System of the Systems approach to the project's architecture. Each student group produced an independent solution to an identified task, which was then implemented on a Single Board Computer (SBC). A Central Control System then engaged each solution when appropriate, allowing the encapsulated SBC systems to manage each task as it was encountered. This approach facilitated collaboration among the multiple independent student teams over an 18-month period, and the fundamental system-agnostic architecture allowed for both the variance in student solutions and the limitations caused by the global electronics shortage. By adopting this approach, Information Technology teams were able to work independently yet produce an effective solution, leveraging their expertise to develop and construct an autonomous catamaran capable of meeting the competition's demanding requirements while producing a high level of engagement. The System of Systems approach is recommended to other universities interested in competing at this level and engaging students in a real-world problem.

Keywords: case study, robotics, education, programming, system of systems, multi-disciplinary collaboration

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Authors: Carolyn J. Ortega, Stephen E. Berger

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The role of the custody evaluator is perhaps one of the most controversial and risky endeavors in clinical practice. Complaints filed with licensing boards regarding a child-custody evaluation constitute the second most common reason for such an event. Although the evaluator is expected to answer for the family-law court what is in the “best interest of the child,” there is a lack of clarity on how to establish this in any empirically validated manner. Hence, practitioners must contend with a nebulous framework in formulating their methodological procedures that inherently places them at risk in an already litigious context. This study sought to qualitatively investigate patterns of practice among doctoral practitioners conducting child custody evaluations in the area of Southern California. Ten psychologists were interviewed who devoted between 25 and 100% of their California private practice to custody work. All held Ph.D. degrees with a range of eight to 36 years of experience in custody work. Semi-structured interviews were used to investigate assessment practices, ensure adherence to guidelines, risk management, and qualities of evaluators. Forty-three Specific Themes were identified using Interpretive Phenomenological Analysis (IPA). Seven Higher Order Themes clustered on salient factors such as use of Ethics, Law, Guidelines; Parent Variables; Child Variables; Psychologist Variables; Testing; Literature; and Trends. Evaluators were aware of the ever-present reality of a licensure complaint and thus presented idiosyncratic descriptions of risk management considerations. Ambiguity about quantifying and validly tapping parenting abilities was also reviewed. Findings from this study suggested a high reliance on unstructured and observational methods in child custody practices.

Keywords: forensic psychology, psychological testing, assessment methodology, child custody

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Authors: Naser Kazemi Eilaki, Ilona Heldal, Carolyn Ahmer, Bjarne Christian Hagen

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Elderly people and people with disabilities are recognized as at-risk groups when it comes to egress and travel from hazard zone to a safe place. One's disability can negatively influence her or his escape time, and this becomes even more important when people from this target group live alone. While earlier studies have frequently addressed quantitative measurements regarding at-risk groups' physical characteristics (e.g., their speed of travel), this paper considers the influence of at-risk groups’ characteristics on their decision and determining better escape routes. Most of evacuation models are based on mapping people's movement and their behaviour to summation times for common activity types on a timeline. Usually, timeline models estimate required safe egress time (RSET) as a sum of four timespans: detection, alarm, premovement, and movement time, and compare this with the available safe egress time (ASET) to determine what is influencing the margin of safety.This paper presents a cross-sectional study for identifying the most critical items on RSET and people's decision-making and with possibilities to include safety knowledge regarding people with physical or cognitive functional impairments. The result will contribute to increased knowledge on considering at-risk groups and disabilities for designing and developing safe escape routes. The expected results can be an asset to predict the probabilistic behavioural pattern of at-risk groups and necessary components for defining a framework for understanding how stakeholders can consider various disabilities when determining the margin of safety for a safe escape route.

Keywords: fire safety, evacuation, decision-making, at-risk groups

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Authors: Carolyn Palma, Andrea Carvajal, Luisa Sepúlveda, Jenifer Cavieres, Ricardo Kalm

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Trace organic compounds, specifically pharmaceutical ones, due to their increasing usage have been detected in various water bodies, endangering the ecosystems. Nowadays the treatment for these pollutants leans towards the application of hybrid technologies. This study is focused on the application of a simultaneous adsorption and biodegradation system for pharmaceutical removal using commercial granulated activated carbon (AC), which is the adsorbent agent after being chemically activated with HCl 1M, called functionalized activated carbon (FAC). Oxidative enzyme Laccase was produced from Trametes versicolor. To immobilize the enzymes into the FAC surface, the enzyme was contacted with the support at a rate of 10 mg protein/ mg of FAC at pH 7, at 4°C of temperature and gentle agitation, allowing the production of supports that had 20%, 50%, and 80% of the FAC surface free of the enzyme, called EFAC 20, EFAC 50 and EFAC 80, respectively. A factorial experiment (22) was carried out, with three central replica points, considering as variables: free surface for adsorption (80%, 50% and 20%) and the concentration of pharmaceutical compounds. (50, 125 and 200 mg L⁻¹). This experiment was designed to study the behavior of these supports exposed to ibuprofen (IBU) and acetaminophen (APH). All experimental procedures were carried out at room temperature, keeping a pH level of 7 and a stirring speed of 150 rpm. Supports containing 80% of the free surface (EFAC80) after 216 h of exposure show the best results for pharmaceutical removal at 50 and 200 mg L⁻¹. For APH, there is a 6% variation in the adsorption capacity for both 50 and 200 mg L⁻¹. However, for IBU, these variations were 2% and 1% for concentrations of 50 and 200 mg L⁻¹, respectively. This study shows the importance of not only removing the pollutant but also degrading it. As shown in the results of all cases in the presence of the enzyme, the process allowed to rise the removal capacity, implying that active sites are emptied gradually because of this degradation, enabling these sites to keep interacting successively.

Keywords: activated carbon, adsorption, enzymatic degradation, trace organic compound

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Authors: David C. Ni

Abstract:

Contemporary models for N-body systems are based on temporal, two-body, and mass point representation of Newtonian mechanics. Other mainstream models include 2D and 3D Ising models based on local neighborhood the lattice structures. In Quantum mechanics, the theories of collective modes are for superconductivity and for the long-range quantum entanglement. However, these models are still mainly for the specific phenomena with a set of designated parameters. We are therefore motivated to develop a new construction directly from the complex-variable N-body systems based on the extended Blaschke functions (EBF), which represent a non-temporal and nonlinear extension of Lorentz transformation on the complex plane – the normalized momentum spaces. A point on the complex plane represents a normalized state of particle momentums observed from a reference frame in the theory of special relativity. There are only two key parameters, normalized momentum and nonlinearity for modelling. An algorithm similar to Jenkins-Traub method is adopted for solving EBF iteratively. Through iteration, the solution sets show a form of σ + i [-t, t], where σ and t are the real numbers, and the [-t, t] shows various distributions, such as 1-peak, 2-peak, and 3-peak etc. distributions and some of them are analog to the canonical distributions. The results of the numerical analysis demonstrate continuum-to-discreteness transitions, evolutional invariance of distributions, phase transitions with conjugate symmetry, etc., which manifest the construction as a potential candidate for the unification of statistics. We hereby classify the observed distributions on the finite convergent domains. Continuous and discrete distributions both exist and are predictable for given partitions in different regions of parameter-pair. We further compare these distributions with canonical distributions and address the impacts on the existing applications.

Keywords: blaschke, lorentz transformation, complex variables, continuous, discrete, canonical, classification

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Authors: Carolyn Scott, Rachel Nugent

Abstract:

The agricultural industry in Ireland and worldwide is one of the most dangerous occupations with respect to occupational health and safety accidents and fatalities. Many accident causation models have been developed in safety research to understand the underlying and contributory factors that lead to the occurrence of an accident. Due to the uniqueness of the agricultural sector, current accident causation theories cannot be applied. This paper presents an accident causation model named the Irish Farm Accident Causation Model (IFACM) which has been specifically tailored to the needs of Irish farms. The IFACM is a theoretical and practical model of accident causation that arranges the causal factors into a graphic representation of originating, shaping, and contributory factors that lead to accidents when unsafe acts and conditions are created that are not rectified by control measures. Causes of farm accidents were assimilated by means of a thorough literature review and were collated to form a graphical representation of the underlying causes of a farm accident. The IFACM was validated retrospectively through case study analysis and peer review. Participants in the case study (n=10) identified causes that led to a farm accident in which they were involved. A root cause analysis was conducted to understand the contributory factors surrounding the farm accident, traced back to the ‘root cause’. Experts relevant to farm safety accident causation in the agricultural industry have peer reviewed the IFACM. The accident causation process is complex. Accident prevention requires a comprehensive understanding of this complex process because to prevent the occurrence of accidents, the causes of accidents must be known. There is little research on the key causes and contributory factors of unsafe behaviours and accidents on Irish farms. The focus of this research is to gain a deep understanding of the causality of accidents on Irish farms. The results suggest that the IFACM framework is helpful for the analysis of the causes of accidents within the agricultural industry in Ireland. The research also suggests that there may be international applicability if further research is carried out. Furthermore, significant learning can be obtained from considering the underlying causes of accidents.

Keywords: farm safety, farm accidents, accident causation, root cause analysis

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Authors: H. Taylan Selamlar, I. Yavuz, G. Yapar

Abstract:

It is difficult to make predictions especially about the future and making accurate predictions is not always easy. However, better predictions remain the foundation of all science therefore the development of accurate, robust and reliable forecasting methods is very important. Numerous number of forecasting methods have been proposed and studied in the literature. There are still two dominant major forecasting methods: Box-Jenkins ARIMA and Exponential Smoothing (ES), and still new methods are derived or inspired from them. After more than 50 years of widespread use, exponential smoothing is still one of the most practically relevant forecasting methods available due to their simplicity, robustness and accuracy as automatic forecasting procedures especially in the famous M-Competitions. Despite its success and widespread use in many areas, ES models have some shortcomings that negatively affect the accuracy of forecasts. Therefore, a new forecasting method in this study will be proposed to cope with these shortcomings and it will be called ATA method. This new method is obtained from traditional ES models by modifying the smoothing parameters therefore both methods have similar structural forms and ATA can be easily adapted to all of the individual ES models however ATA has many advantages due to its innovative new weighting scheme. In this paper, the focus is on modeling the trend component and handling seasonality patterns by utilizing classical decomposition. Therefore, ATA method is expanded to higher order ES methods for additive, multiplicative, additive damped and multiplicative damped trend components. The proposed models are called ATA trended models and their predictive performances are compared to their counter ES models on the M3 competition data set since it is still the most recent and comprehensive time-series data collection available. It is shown that the models outperform their counters on almost all settings and when a model selection is carried out amongst these trended models ATA outperforms all of the competitors in the M3- competition for both short term and long term forecasting horizons when the models’ forecasting accuracies are compared based on popular error metrics.

Keywords: accuracy, exponential smoothing, forecasting, initial value

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Authors: Naser Kazemi Eilaki, Carolyn Ahmer, Ilona Heldal, Bjarne Christian Hagen

Abstract:

Older people and people with disabilities are recognized as at-risk groups when it comes to egress and travel from hazard zone to safe places. One's disability can negatively influence her or his escape time, and this becomes even more important when people from this target group live alone. This research deals with the fire safety of mentioned people's buildings by means of probabilistic methods. For this purpose, fire safety is addressed by modeling the egress of our target group from a hazardous zone to a safe zone. A common type of detached house with a prevalent plan has been chosen for safety analysis, and a limit state function has been developed according to the time-line evacuation model, which is based on a two-zone and smoke development model. An analytical computer model (B-Risk) is used to consider smoke development. Since most of the involved parameters in the fire development model pose uncertainty, an appropriate probability distribution function has been considered for each one of the variables with indeterministic nature. To achieve safety and reliability for the at-risk groups, the fire safety index method has been chosen to define the probability of failure (causalities) and safety index (beta index). An improved harmony search meta-heuristic optimization algorithm has been used to define the beta index. Sensitivity analysis has been done to define the most important and effective parameters for the fire safety of the at-risk group. Results showed an area of openings and intervals to egress exits are more important in buildings, and the safety of people would improve with increasing dimensions of occupant space (building). Fire growth is more critical compared to other parameters in the home without a detector and fire distinguishing system, but in a home equipped with these facilities, it is less important. Type of disabilities has a great effect on the safety level of people who live in the same home layout, and people with visual impairment encounter more risk of capturing compared to visual and movement disabilities.

Keywords: fire safety, at-risk groups, zone model, egress time, uncertainty

Procedia PDF Downloads 74