Search results for: district general hospital
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Search results for: district general hospital

75 Assessment and Forecasting of the Impact of Negative Environmental Factors on Public Health

Authors: Nurlan Smagulov, Aiman Konkabayeva, Akerke Sadykova, Arailym Serik

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Introduction. Adverse environmental factors do not immediately lead to pathological changes in the body. They can exert the growth of pre-pathology characterized by shifts in physiological, biochemical, immunological and other indicators of the body state. These disorders are unstable, reversible and indicative of body reactions. There is an opportunity to objectively judge the internal structure of the adaptive body reactions at the level of individual organs and systems. In order to obtain a stable response of the body to the chronic effects of unfavorable environmental factors of low intensity (compared to production environment factors), a time called the «lag time» is needed. The obtained results without considering this factor distort reality and, for the most part, cannot be a reliable statement of the main conclusions in any work. A technique is needed to reduce methodological errors and combine mathematical logic using statistical methods and a medical point of view, which ultimately will affect the obtained results and avoid a false correlation. Objective. Development of a methodology for assessing and predicting the environmental factors impact on the population health considering the «lag time.» Methods. Research objects: environmental and population morbidity indicators. The database on the environmental state was compiled from the monthly newsletters of Kazhydromet. Data on population morbidity were obtained from regional statistical yearbooks. When processing static data, a time interval (lag) was determined for each «argument-function» pair. That is the required interval, after which the harmful factor effect (argument) will fully manifest itself in the indicators of the organism's state (function). The lag value was determined by cross-correlation functions of arguments (environmental indicators) with functions (morbidity). Correlation coefficients (r) and their reliability (t), Fisher's criterion (F) and the influence share (R2) of the main factor (argument) per indicator (function) were calculated as a percentage. Results. The ecological situation of an industrially developed region has an impact on health indicators, but it has some nuances. Fundamentally opposite results were obtained in the mathematical data processing, considering the «lag time». Namely, an expressed correlation was revealed after two databases (ecology-morbidity) shifted. For example, the lag period was 4 years for dust concentration, general morbidity, and 3 years – for childhood morbidity. These periods accounted for the maximum values of the correlation coefficients and the largest percentage of the influencing factor. Similar results were observed in relation to the concentration of soot, dioxide, etc. The comprehensive statistical processing using multiple correlation-regression variance analysis confirms the correctness of the above statement. This method provided the integrated approach to predicting the degree of pollution of the main environmental components to identify the most dangerous combinations of concentrations of leading negative environmental factors. Conclusion. The method of assessing the «environment-public health» system (considering the «lag time») is qualitatively different from the traditional (without considering the «lag time»). The results significantly differ and are more amenable to a logical explanation of the obtained dependencies. The method allows presenting the quantitative and qualitative dependence in a different way within the «environment-public health» system.

Keywords: ecology, morbidity, population, lag time

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74 Impact of Primary Care Telemedicine Consultations On Health Care Resource Utilisation: A Systematic Review

Authors: Anastasia Constantinou, Stephen Morris

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Background: The adoption of synchronous and asynchronous telemedicine modalities for primary care consultations has exponentially increased since the COVID-19 pandemic. However, there is limited understanding of how virtual consultations influence healthcare resource utilization and other quality measures including safety, timeliness, efficiency, patient and provider satisfaction, cost-effectiveness and environmental impact. Aim: Quantify the rate of follow-up visits, emergency department visits, hospitalizations, request for investigations and prescriptions and comment on the effect on different quality measures associated with different telemedicine modalities used for primary care services and primary care referrals to secondary care Design and setting: Systematic review in primary care Methods: A systematic search was carried out across three databases (Medline, PubMed and Scopus) between August and November 2023, using terms related to telemedicine, general practice, electronic referrals, follow-up, use and efficiency and supported by citation searching. This was followed by screening according to pre-defined criteria, data extraction and critical appraisal. Narrative synthesis and metanalysis of quantitative data was used to summarize findings. Results: The search identified 2230 studies; 50 studies are included in this review. There was a prevalence of asynchronous modalities in both primary care services (68%) and referrals from primary care to secondary care (83%), and most of the study participants were females (63.3%), with mean age of 48.2. The average follow-up for virtual consultations in primary care was 28.4% (eVisits: 36.8%, secure messages 18.7%, videoconference 23.5%) with no significant difference between them or F2F consultations. There was an average annual reduction of primary care visits by 0.09/patient, an increase in telephone visits by 0.20/patient, an increase in ED encounters by 0.011/patient, an increase in hospitalizations by 0.02/patient and an increase in out of hours visits by 0.019/patient. Laboratory testing was requested on average for 10.9% of telemedicine patients, imaging or procedures for 5.6% and prescriptions for 58.7% of patients. When looking at referrals to secondary care, on average 36.7% of virtual referrals required follow-up visit, with the average rate of follow-up for electronic referrals being higher than for videoconferencing (39.2% vs 23%, p=0.167). Technical failures were reported on average for 1.4% of virtual consultations to primary care. When using carbon footprint estimates, we calculate that the use of telemedicine in primary care services can potentially provide a net decrease in carbon footprint by 0.592kgCO2/patient/year. When follow-up rates are taken into account, we estimate that virtual consultations reduce carbon footprint for primary care services by 2.3 times, and for secondary care referrals by 2.2 times. No major concerns regarding quality of care, or patient satisfaction were identified. 5/7 studies that addressed cost-effectiveness, reported increased savings. Conclusions: Telemedicine provides quality, cost-effective, and environmentally sustainable care for patients in primary care with inconclusive evidence regarding the rates of subsequent healthcare utilization. The evidence is limited by heterogeneous, small-scale studies and lack of prospective comparative studies. Further research to identify the most appropriate telemedicine modality for different patient populations, clinical presentations, service provision (e.g. used to follow-up patients instead of initial diagnosis) as well as further education for patients and providers alike on how to make best use of this service is expected to improve outcomes and influence practice.

Keywords: telemedicine, healthcare utilisation, digital interventions, environmental impact, sustainable healthcare

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73 Measuring Entrepreneurship Intentions among Nigerian University Graduates: A Structural Equation Modeling Technique

Authors: Eunice Oluwakemi Chukwuma-Nwuba

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Nigeria is a developing country with an increasing rate of graduate unemployment. This has triggered successive government administrations to promote the variety of programmes to address the situation. However, none of these efforts yielded the desired outcome. Accordingly, in 2006 the government included entrepreneurship module in the curriculum of universities as a compulsory general programme for all undergraduate courses. This is in the hope that the programme will help to promote entrepreneurial mind-set and new venture creation among graduates and as a result reduce the rate of graduate unemployment. The study explores the effectiveness of entrepreneurship education in promoting entrepreneurship. This study is significant in view of the endemic graduate unemployment in Nigeria and the social consequences such as youth restiveness and militancy. It is guided by the theory of planned behaviour. It employed the two-stage structural equation modelling (AMOS) to model entrepreneurial intentions as a function of innovative teaching methods, traditional teaching methods and culture Personal attitude and subjective norm are proposed to mediate the relationships between the exogenous and the endogenous variables. The first stage was tested using multi-group confirmatory factor analysis (MGCFA) framework to confirm that the two groups assign the same meaning to the scale items and to obtain goodness-of-fit indices. The multi-group confirmatory factor analysis included the tests of configural, metric and scalar invariance. With the attainment of full configural invariance and partial metric and scalar invariance, the second stage – the structural model was applied hypothesising that, the entrepreneurial intentions of graduates (respondents who have participated in the compulsory entrepreneurship programme) will be higher than those of undergraduates (respondents who are yet to participate in the programme). The study uses the quasi-experimental design. The samples comprised 409 graduates (experimental group) and 402 undergraduates (control group) from six federal universities in Nigeria. Our findings suggest that personal attitude is positively related with entrepreneurial intentions, largely confirming prior literature. However, unlike previous studies, our results indicate that subjective norm has significant direct and indirect impact on entrepreneurial intentions indicating that reference people of the participants have important roles to play in their decision to be entrepreneurial. Furthermore, unlike the assertions in prior studies, the result suggests that traditional teaching methods have indirect effect on entrepreneurial intentions supporting that since personal characteristics can change in an educational situation, an education purposively directed at entrepreneurship might achieve similar results if not better. This study has implication for practice and theory. The research extends to the theoretical understanding of the formation of entrepreneurial intentions and explains the role of the reference others in relation to how graduates perceive entrepreneurship. Further, the study adds to the body of knowledge on entrepreneurship education in Nigeria universities and provides a developing country perspective. It proposes further research in the exploration of entrepreneurship education and entrepreneurial intentions of graduates from across the country’s universities as necessary and imperative.

Keywords: entrepreneurship education, entrepreneurial intention, structural equation modeling, theory of planned behaviour

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72 Association between Polygenic Risk of Alzheimer's Dementia, Brain MRI and Cognition in UK Biobank

Authors: Rachana Tank, Donald. M. Lyall, Kristin Flegal, Joey Ward, Jonathan Cavanagh

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Alzheimer’s research UK estimates by 2050, 2 million individuals will be living with Late Onset Alzheimer’s disease (LOAD). However, individuals experience considerable cognitive deficits and brain pathology over decades before reaching clinically diagnosable LOAD and studies have utilised gene candidate studies such as genome wide association studies (GWAS) and polygenic risk (PGR) scores to identify high risk individuals and potential pathways. This investigation aims to determine whether high genetic risk of LOAD is associated with worse brain MRI and cognitive performance in healthy older adults within the UK Biobank cohort. Previous studies investigating associations of PGR for LOAD and measures of MRI or cognitive functioning have focused on specific aspects of hippocampal structure, in relatively small sample sizes and with poor ‘controlling’ for confounders such as smoking. Both the sample size of this study and the discovery GWAS sample are bigger than previous studies to our knowledge. Genetic interaction between loci showing largest effects in GWAS have not been extensively studied and it is known that APOE e4 poses the largest genetic risk of LOAD with potential gene-gene and gene-environment interactions of e4, for this reason we  also analyse genetic interactions of PGR with the APOE e4 genotype. High genetic loading based on a polygenic risk score of 21 SNPs for LOAD is associated with worse brain MRI and cognitive outcomes in healthy individuals within the UK Biobank cohort. Summary statistics from Kunkle et al., GWAS meta-analyses (case: n=30,344, control: n=52,427) will be used to create polygenic risk scores based on 21 SNPs and analyses will be carried out in N=37,000 participants in the UK Biobank. This will be the largest study to date investigating PGR of LOAD in relation to MRI. MRI outcome measures include WM tracts, structural volumes. Cognitive function measures include reaction time, pairs matching, trail making, digit symbol substitution and prospective memory. Interaction of the APOE e4 alleles and PGR will be analysed by including APOE status as an interaction term coded as either 0, 1 or 2 e4 alleles. Models will be adjusted partially for adjusted for age, BMI, sex, genotyping chip, smoking, depression and social deprivation. Preliminary results suggest PGR score for LOAD is associated with decreased hippocampal volumes including hippocampal body (standardised beta = -0.04, P = 0.022) and tail (standardised beta = -0.037, P = 0.030), but not with hippocampal head. There were also associations of genetic risk with decreased cognitive performance including fluid intelligence (standardised beta = -0.08, P<0.01) and reaction time (standardised beta = 2.04, P<0.01). No genetic interactions were found between APOE e4 dose and PGR score for MRI or cognitive measures. The generalisability of these results is limited by selection bias within the UK Biobank as participants are less likely to be obese, smoke, be socioeconomically deprived and have fewer self-reported health conditions when compared to the general population. Lack of a unified approach or standardised method for calculating genetic risk scores may also be a limitation of these analyses. Further discussion and results are pending.

Keywords: Alzheimer's dementia, cognition, polygenic risk, MRI

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71 Mental Health Promotion for Children of Mentally Ill Parents in Schools. Assessment and Promotion of Teacher Mental Health Literacy in Order to Promote Child Related Mental Health (Teacher-MHL)

Authors: Dirk Bruland, Paulo Pinheiro, Ullrich Bauer

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Introduction: Over 3 million children, about one quarter of all students, experience at least one parent with mental disorder in Germany every year. Children of mentally-ill parents are at considerably higher risk of developing serious mental health problems. The different burden patterns and coping attempts often become manifest in children's school lives. In this context, schools can have an important protective function, but can also create risk potentials. In reference to Jorm, pupil-related teachers’ mental health literacy (Teacher-MHL) includes the ability to recognize change behaviour, the knowledge of risk factors, the implementation of first aid intervention, and seeking professional help (teacher as gatekeeper). Although teachers’ knowledge and increased awareness of this topic is essential, the literature provides little information on the extent of teachers' abilities. As part of a German-wide research consortium on health literacy, this project, launched in March for 3 years, will conduct evidence-based mental health literacy research. The primary objective is to measure Teacher-MHL in the context of pupil-related psychosocial factors at primary and secondary schools (grades 5 & 6), while also focussing on children’s social living conditions. Methods: (1) A systematic literature review in different databases to identify papers with regard to Teacher-MHL (completed). (2) Based on these results, an interview guide was developed. This research step includes a qualitative pre-study to inductively survey the general profiles of teachers (n=24). The evaluation will be presented on the conference. (3) These findings will be translated into a quantitative teacher survey (n=2500) in order to assess the extent of socio-analytical skills of teachers as well as in relation to institutional and individual characteristics. (4) Based on results 1 – 3, developing a training program for teachers. Results: The review highlights a lack of information for Teacher-MHL and their skills, especially related to high-risk-groups like children of mentally ill parents. The literature is limited to a few studies only. According to these, teacher are not good at identifying burdened children and if they identify those children they do not know how to handle the situations in school. They are not sufficiently trained to deal with these children, especially there are great uncertainties in dealing with the teaching situation. Institutional means and resources are missing as well. Such a mismatch can result in insufficient support and use of opportunities for children at risk. First impressions from the interviews confirm these results and allow a greater insight in the everyday school-life according to critical life events in families. Conclusions: For the first time schools will be addressed as a setting where children are especially "accessible" for measures of health promotion. Addressing Teacher-MHL gives reason to expect high effectiveness. Targeting professionals' abilities for dealing with this high-risk-group leads to a discharge for teacher themselves to handle those situations and increases school health promotion. In view of the fact that only 10-30% of such high-risk families accept offers of therapy and assistance, this will be the first primary preventive and health-promoting approach to protect the health of a yet unaffected, but particularly burdened, high-risk group.

Keywords: children of mentally ill parents, health promotion, mental health literacy, school

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70 About the State of Students’ Career Guidance in the Conditions of Inclusive Education in the Republic of Kazakhstan

Authors: Laura Butabayeva, Svetlana Ismagulova, Gulbarshin Nogaibayeva, Maiya Temirbayeva, Aidana Zhussip

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Over the years of independence, Kazakhstan has not only ratified international documents regulating the rights of children to Inclusive education, but also developed its own inclusive educational policy. Along with this, the state pays particular attention to high school students' preparedness for professional self-determination. However, a number of problematic issues in this field have been revealed, such as the lack of systemic mechanisms coordinating stakeholders’ actions in preparing schoolchildren for a conscious choice of in-demand profession, meeting their individual capabilities and special educational needs (SEN). The analysis of the state’s current situation indicates school graduates’ adaptation to the labor market does not meet existing demands of the society. According to the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection of the Population of the Republic of Kazakhstan, about 70 % of Kazakhstani school graduates find themselves difficult to choose a profession, 87 % of schoolchildren make their career choice under the influence of parents and school teachers, 90 % of schoolchildren and their parents have no idea about the most popular professions on the market. The results of the study conducted by KorlanSyzdykova in 2016 indicated the urgent need of Kazakhstani school graduates in obtaining extensive information about in- demand professions and receiving professional assistance in choosing a profession in accordance with their individual skills, abilities, and preferences. The results of the survey, conducted by Information and Analytical Center among heads of colleges in 2020, showed that despite significant steps in creating conditions for students with SEN, they face challenges in studying because of poor career guidance provided to them in schools. The results of the study, conducted by the Center for Inclusive Education of the National Academy of Education named after Y. Altynsarin in the state’s general education schools in 2021, demonstrated the lack of career guidance, pedagogical and psychological support for children with SEN. To investigate these issues, the further study was conducted to examine the state of students’ career guidance and socialization, taking into account their SEN. The hypothesis of this study proposed that to prepare school graduates for a conscious career choice, school teachers and specialists need to develop their competencies in early identification of students' interests, inclinations, SEN and ensure necessary support for them. The state’s 5 regions were involved in the study according to the geographical location. The triangulation approach was utilized to ensure the credibility and validity of research findings, including both theoretical (analysis of existing statistical data, legal documents, results of previous research) and empirical (school survey for students, interviews with parents, teachers, representatives of school administration) methods. The data were analyzed independently and compared to each other. The survey included questions related to provision of pedagogical support for school students in making their career choice. Ethical principles were observed in the process of developing the methodology, collecting, analyzing the data and distributing the results. Based on the results, methodological recommendations on students’ career guidance for school teachers and specialists were developed, taking into account the former’s individual capabilities and SEN.

Keywords: career guidance, children with special educational needs, inclusive education, Kazakhstan

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69 Upper Jurassic to Lower Cretaceous Oysters (Bivalvia, Ostreoidea) from Siberia: Taxonomy and Variations of Carbon and Oxygen Isotopes

Authors: Igor N. Kosenko

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The present contribution is an analysis of more than 300 specimens of Upper Jurassic to Lower Cretaceous oysters collected by V.A. Zakharov during the 1960s and currently stored in the Trofimuk Institute of Geology and Geophysics SB RAS (Novosibirsk, Russia). They were sampled in the northwestern bounder of Western Siberia (Yatriya, Maurynia, Tol’ya and Lopsiya rivers) and the north of Eastern Siberia (Boyarka, Bolshaya Romanikha and Dyabaka-Tari rivers). During the last five years, they were examined with taxonomical and palaeoecological purposes. Based on carbonate material of oyster’s shells were performed isotopic analyses and associated palaeotemperatures. Taxonomical study consists on classical morphofunctional and biometrical analyses. It is completed by another large amount of Cretaceous oysters from Crimea as well as modern Pacific oyster - Crassostrea gigas. Those were studied to understand the range of modification variability between different species. Oysters previously identified as Liostrea are attributed now to four genera: Praeexogyra and Helvetostrea (Flemingostreidae), Pernostrea (Gryphaeidae) and one new genus (Gryphaeidae), including one species “Liostrea” roemeri (Quenstedt). This last is characterized by peculiar ethology, being attached to floating ammonites and morphology, outlined by a beak-shaped umbo on the right (!) valve. Endemic Siberian species from the Pernostrea genus have been included into the subgenus Boreiodeltoideum subgen. nov. Pernostrea and Deltoideum genera have been included into the tribe Pernostreini n. trib. from the Gryphaeinae subfamily. Model of phylogenetic relationships between species of this tribe has been proposed. Siberian oyster complexes were compared with complexes from Western Europe, Poland and East European Platform. In western Boreal and Subboreal Realm (England, northern France and Poland) two stages of oyster’s development were recognized: Jurassic-type and Cretaceous-type. In Siberia, Jurassic and Lower Cretaceous oysters formed a unique complex. It may be due to the isolation of the Siberian Basin toward the West during the Early Cretaceous. Seven oyster’s shells of Pernostrea (Pernostrea) uralensis (Zakharov) from the Jurassic/Cretaceous Boundary Interval (Upper Volgian – Lower Ryazanian) of Maurynia river were used to perform δ13C and δ18O isotopic analyses. The preservation of the carbonate material was controlled by: cathodoluminescence analyses; content of Fe, Mn, Sr; absence of correlation between δ13C and δ18O and content of Fe and Mn. The obtained δ13C and δ18O data were compared with isotopic data based on belemnites from the same stratigraphical interval of the same section and were used to trace palaeotemperatures. A general trend towards negative δ18O values is recorded in the Maurynia section, from the lower part of the Upper Volgian to the middle part of the Ryazanian Chetaites sibiricus ammonite zone. This trend was previously recorded in the Nordvik section. The higher palaeotemperatures (2°C in average) determined from oyster’s shells indicate that belemnites likely migrated laterally and lived part of their lives in cooler waters. This work financially supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Researches (grant no. 16-35-00003).

Keywords: isotopes, oysters, Siberia, taxonomy

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68 A Triple Win: Linking Students, Academics, and External Organisations to Provide Real-World Learning Experiences with Real-World Benefits

Authors: Anne E. Goodenough

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Students often learn best ‘on the job’ through holistic real-world projects. They need real-world experiences to make classroom learning applicable and to increase their employability. Academics typically value working on projects where new knowledge is created and have a genuine desire to help students engage with learning and develop new skills. They might also have institutional pressure to enhance student engagement, retention, and satisfaction. External organizations - especially non-governmental bodies, charities, and small enterprises - often have fundamental and pressing questions, but lack the manpower and academic expertise to answer them effectively. They might also be on the lookout for talented potential employees. This study examines ways in which these diverse requirements can be met simultaneously by creating three-way projects that provide excellent academic and real-world outcomes for all involved. It studied a range of innovative projects across natural sciences (biology, ecology, physical geography and social sciences (human geography, sociology, criminology, and community engagement) to establish how to best harness the potential of this powerful approach. Focal collaborations included: (1) development of practitioner-linked modules; (2) frameworks where students collected/analyzed data for link organizations in research methods modules; (3) placement-based internships and dissertations; and (4) immersive fieldwork projects in novel locations to allow students engage first-hand with contemporary issues as diverse as rhino poaching in South Africa, segregation in Ireland, and gun crime in Florida. Although there was no ‘magic formula’ for success, the approach was found to work best when small projects were developed that were achievable in a short time-frame, both to tie into modular curricula and meet the immediacy expectations of many link organizations. Bigger projects were found to work well in some cases, especially when they were essentially a series of linked smaller projects, either running concurrently or successively with each building on previous work. Opportunities were maximized when there were tangible benefits to the link organization as this generally increased organization investment in the project and motivated students too. The importance of finding the right approach for a given project was found to be key: it was vital to ensure that something that could work effectively as an independent research project for one student, for example, was not shoehorned into being a project for multiple students within a taught module. In general, students were very positive about collaboration projects. They identified benefits to confidence, time-keeping and communication, as well as conveying their enthusiasm when their work was of benefit to the wider community. Several students have gone on to do further work with the link organization in a voluntary capacity or as paid staff, or used the experiences to help them break into the ever-more competitive job market in other ways. Although this approach involves a substantial time investment, especially from academics, the benefits can be profound. The approach has strong potential to engage students, help retention, improve student satisfaction, and teach new skills; keep the knowledge of academics fresh and current; and provide valuable tangible benefits for link organizations: a real triple win.

Keywords: authentic learning, curriculum development, effective education, employability, higher education, innovative pedagogy, link organizations, student experience

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67 Ethnic Tourism and Real Estate Development: A Case of Yiren Ancient Town, China

Authors: Li Yang

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Tourism is employed by many countries to facilitate socioeconomic development and to assist in the heritage preservation. An “ethnic culture boom” is currently driving the tourism industry in China. Ethnic minorities, commonly portrayed as primitive, colorful and exotic, have become a big tourist draw. Many cultural attractions have been built throughout China to meet the demands of domestic tourists. Sacred cultural heritage sites have been rehabilitated as a major component of ethnic tourism. The purpose of this study is to examine the interconnected consequences of tourism development and tourism-related leisure property development and, and to discuss, in a broader context, issues and considerations that are pertinent to the management and development of ethnic attractions. The role of real estate in tourism development and its sociocultural consequences are explored. An empirical research was conducted in Yiren Ancient Town (literally, "Ancient Town of Yi People") in Chuxiong City, Yunnan Province, China. Multiple research methods, including in-depth interviews, informal discussions, on-site observations, and secondary data review were employed to measure residents and tourism decision-makers’ perceptions of ethnic tourism and to explore the impacts of tourism on local community. Key informants from government officials, tourism developers and local communities were interviewed individually to gather what they think about benefits and costs of tourism, and what their concerns about and hopes for tourism development are. Yiren Ancient Town was constructed in classical Yi architecture style featuring tranquil garden scenery. Commercial streets, entertainment complexes, and accommodation facilities occupied the center of the town, creating culturally distinctive and visually stimulating places for tourists. A variety of activities are presented to visitors, including walking tours of the town, staged dance shows, musical performances, ethnic festivals and ceremonies, tasting minority food and wedding shows. This study reveals that tourism real estate has transformed the town from a traditional neighborhood into diverse real estate landscapes. Ethnic architecture, costumes, festivals and folk culture have been represented, altered and reinvented through the tourist gaze and mechanisms of cultural production. Tourism is now a new economic driver of the community providing opportunities for the creation of small businesses. There was a general appreciation in the community that tourism has created many employment opportunities, especially for self-employment. However, profit-seeking is a primary motivation for the government, developers, businesses, and other actors involved in the tourism development process. As the town has attracted an increasing number of visitors, commercialization and business competition are intense in the town. Many residents complained about elevated land prices, making the town and the surroundings comparatively high-value locales. Local community is also concerned about the decline of traditional ethnic culture and an erosion of the sense of identity and place. A balance is difficult to maintain between protection and development. The preservation of ethnic culture and heritage should be enhanced if long-term sustainable development of tourism is to occur and the loss of ethnic identities is to be avoided.

Keywords: ancient town, ethnic tourism, local community, real estate, China

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66 Ensemble Methods in Machine Learning: An Algorithmic Approach to Derive Distinctive Behaviors of Criminal Activity Applied to the Poaching Domain

Authors: Zachary Blanks, Solomon Sonya

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Poaching presents a serious threat to endangered animal species, environment conservations, and human life. Additionally, some poaching activity has even been linked to supplying funds to support terrorist networks elsewhere around the world. Consequently, agencies dedicated to protecting wildlife habitats have a near intractable task of adequately patrolling an entire area (spanning several thousand kilometers) given limited resources, funds, and personnel at their disposal. Thus, agencies need predictive tools that are both high-performing and easily implementable by the user to help in learning how the significant features (e.g. animal population densities, topography, behavior patterns of the criminals within the area, etc) interact with each other in hopes of abating poaching. This research develops a classification model using machine learning algorithms to aid in forecasting future attacks that is both easy to train and performs well when compared to other models. In this research, we demonstrate how data imputation methods (specifically predictive mean matching, gradient boosting, and random forest multiple imputation) can be applied to analyze data and create significant predictions across a varied data set. Specifically, we apply these methods to improve the accuracy of adopted prediction models (Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machine, etc). Finally, we assess the performance of the model and the accuracy of our data imputation methods by learning on a real-world data set constituting four years of imputed data and testing on one year of non-imputed data. This paper provides three main contributions. First, we extend work done by the Teamcore and CREATE (Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events) research group at the University of Southern California (USC) working in conjunction with the Department of Homeland Security to apply game theory and machine learning algorithms to develop more efficient ways of reducing poaching. This research introduces ensemble methods (Random Forests and Stochastic Gradient Boosting) and applies it to real-world poaching data gathered from the Ugandan rain forest park rangers. Next, we consider the effect of data imputation on both the performance of various algorithms and the general accuracy of the method itself when applied to a dependent variable where a large number of observations are missing. Third, we provide an alternate approach to predict the probability of observing poaching both by season and by month. The results from this research are very promising. We conclude that by using Stochastic Gradient Boosting to predict observations for non-commercial poaching by season, we are able to produce statistically equivalent results while being orders of magnitude faster in computation time and complexity. Additionally, when predicting potential poaching incidents by individual month vice entire seasons, boosting techniques produce a mean area under the curve increase of approximately 3% relative to previous prediction schedules by entire seasons.

Keywords: ensemble methods, imputation, machine learning, random forests, statistical analysis, stochastic gradient boosting, wildlife protection

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65 Shared Versus Pooled Automated Vehicles: Exploring Behavioral Intentions Towards On-Demand Automated Vehicles

Authors: Samira Hamiditehrani

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Automated vehicles (AVs) are emerging technologies that could potentially offer a wide range of opportunities and challenges for the transportation sector. The advent of AV technology has also resulted in new business models in shared mobility services where many ride hailing and car sharing companies are developing on-demand AVs including shared automated vehicles (SAVs) and pooled automated vehicles (Pooled AVs). SAVs and Pooled AVs could provide alternative shared mobility services which encourage sustainable transport systems, mitigate traffic congestion, and reduce automobile dependency. However, the success of on-demand AVs in addressing major transportation policy issues depends on whether and how the public adopts them as regular travel modes. To identify conditions under which individuals may adopt on-demand AVs, previous studies have applied human behavior and technology acceptance theories, where Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) has been validated and is among the most tested in on-demand AV research. In this respect, this study has three objectives: (a) to propose and validate a theoretical model for behavioral intention to use SAVs and Pooled AVs by extending the original TPB model; (b) to identify the characteristics of early adopters of SAVs, who prefer to have a shorter and private ride, versus prospective users of Pooled AVs, who choose more affordable but longer and shared trips; and (c) to investigate Canadians’ intentions to adopt on-demand AVs for regular trips. Toward this end, this study uses data from an online survey (n = 3,622) of workers or adult students (18 to 75 years old) conducted in October and November 2021 for six major Canadian metropolitan areas: Toronto, Vancouver, Ottawa, Montreal, Calgary, and Hamilton. To accomplish the goals of this study, a base bivariate ordered probit model, in which both SAV and Pooled AV adoptions are estimated as ordered dependent variables, alongside a full structural equation modeling (SEM) system are estimated. The findings of this study indicate that affective motivations such as attitude towards AV technology, perceived privacy, and subjective norms, matter more than sociodemographic and travel behavior characteristic in adopting on-demand AVs. Also, the results of second objective provide evidence that although there are a few affective motivations, such as subjective norms and having ample knowledge, that are common between early adopters of SAVs and PooledAVs, many examined motivations differ among SAV and Pooled AV adoption factors. In other words, motivations influencing intention to use on-demand AVs differ among the service types. Likewise, depending on the types of on-demand AVs, the sociodemographic characteristics of early adopters differ significantly. In general, findings paint a complex picture with respect to the application of constructs from common technology adoption models to the study of on-demand AVs. Findings from the final objective suggest that policymakers, planners, the vehicle and technology industries, and the public at large should moderate their expectations that on-demand AVs may suddenly transform the entire transportation sector. Instead, this study suggests that SAVs and Pooled AVs (when they entire the Canadian market) are likely to be adopted as supplementary mobility tools rather than substitutions for current travel modes

Keywords: automated vehicles, Canadian perception, theory of planned behavior, on-demand AVs

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64 Erectile Dysfunction in A Middle Aged Man 6 Years After Bariatric Surgery: A Case Report

Authors: Thaminda Liyanage, Chamila Shamika Kurukulasuriya

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Introduction: Morbid obesity has been successfully treated with bariatric surgery for over 60 years. Although operative procedures have improved and associated complications have reduced substantially, surgery still carries the risk of post-operative malabsorption, malnutrition and a range of gastrointestinal disorders. Overweight by itself can impair libido in both sexes and cause erectile dysfunction in males by inducing a state of hypogonadotropic hypogonadism, proportional to the degree of obesity. Impact of weight reduction on libido and sexual activity remains controversial, however it is broadly accepted that weight loss improves sexual drive. Zinc deficiency, subsequent to malabsorption, may lead to impaired testosterone synthesis in men while excessive and/or rapid weight loss in females may result in reversible amenorrhoea leading to sub-fertility. Methods: We describe a 37 year old male, 6 years post Roux-en-Y gastric bypass surgery, who presented with erectile dysfunction, loss of libido, worsening fatigue and generalized weakness for 4 months. He also complained of constipation and frequent muscle cramps but denied having headache, vomiting or visual disturbances. Patient had lost 38 kg of body weight post gastric bypass surgery over four years {135kg (BMI 42.6 kg/m2) to 97 kg (BMI 30.6 kg/m2)} and the weight had been stable for past two years. He had no recognised co-morbidities at the time of the surgery and noted marked improvement in general wellbeing, physical fitness and psychological confident post surgery, up until four months before presentation. Clinical examination revealed dry pale skin with normal body hair distribution, no thyroid nodules or goitre, normal size testicles and normal neurological examination with no visual field defects or diplopia. He had low serum testosterone, follicular stimulating hormone (FSH), luteinizing hormone (LH), T3, T4, thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH), insulin like growth factor 1 (IGF-1) and 24-hour urine cortisol levels. Serum cortisol demonstrated an appropriate rise to ACTH stimulation test but growth hormone (GH) failed increase on insulin tolerance test. Other biochemical and haematological studies were normal, except for low zinc and folate with minimally raised liver enzymes. MRI scan of the head confirmed a solid pituitary mass with no mass effect on optic chiasm. Results: In this patient clinical, biochemical and radiological findings were consistent with anterior pituitary dysfunction. However, there were no features of raised intracranial pressure or neurological compromise. He was commenced on appropriate home replacement therapy and referred for neurosurgical evaluation. Patient reported marked improvement in his symptoms, specially libido and erectile dysfunction, on subsequent follow up visits. Conclusion: Sexual dysfunction coupled with non specific constitutional symptoms has multiple aetiologies. Clinical symptoms out of proportion to nutritional deficiencies post bariatric surgery should be thoroughly investigated. Close long term follow up is crucial for overall success.

Keywords: obesity, bariatric surgery, erectile dysfunction, loss of libido

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63 Methotrexate Associated Skin Cancer: A Signal Review of Pharmacovigilance Center

Authors: Abdulaziz Alakeel, Abdulrahman Alomair, Mohammed Fouda

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Introduction: Methotrexate (MTX) is an antimetabolite used to treat multiple conditions, including neoplastic diseases, severe psoriasis, and rheumatoid arthritis. Skin cancer is the out-of-control growth of abnormal cells in the epidermis, the outermost skin layer, caused by unrepaired DNA damage that triggers mutations. These mutations lead the skin cells to multiply rapidly and form malignant tumors. The aim of this review is to evaluate the risk of skin cancer associated with the use of methotrexate and to suggest regulatory recommendations if required. Methodology: Signal Detection team at Saudi Food and Drug Authority (SFDA) performed a safety review using National Pharmacovigilance Center (NPC) database as well as the World Health Organization (WHO) VigiBase, alongside with literature screening to retrieve related information for assessing the causality between skin cancer and methotrexate. The search conducted in July 2020. Results: Four published articles support the association seen while searching in literature, a recent randomized control trial published in 2020 revealed a statistically significant increase in skin cancer among MTX users. Another study mentioned methotrexate increases the risk of non-melanoma skin cancer when used in combination with immunosuppressant and biologic agents. In addition, the incidence of melanoma for methotrexate users was 3-fold more than the general population in a cohort study of rheumatoid arthritis patients. The last article estimated the risk of cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM) in a cohort study shows a statistically significant risk increase for CMM was observed in MTX exposed patients. The WHO database (VigiBase) searched for individual case safety reports (ICSRs) reported for “Skin Cancer” and 'Methotrexate' use, which yielded 121 ICSRs. The initial review revealed that 106 cases are insufficiently documented for proper medical assessment. However, the remaining fifteen cases have extensively evaluated by applying the WHO criteria of causality assessment. As a result, 30 percent of the cases showed that MTX could possibly cause skin cancer; five cases provide unlikely association and five un-assessable cases due to lack of information. The Saudi NPC database searched to retrieve any reported cases for the combined terms methotrexate/skin cancer; however, no local cases reported up to date. The data mining of the observed and the expected reporting rate for drug/adverse drug reaction pair is estimated using information component (IC), a tool developed by the WHO Uppsala Monitoring Centre to measure the reporting ratio. Positive IC reflects higher statistical association, while negative values translated as a less statistical association, considering the null value equal to zero. Results showed that a combination of 'Methotrexate' and 'Skin cancer' observed more than expected when compared to other medications in the WHO database (IC value is 1.2). Conclusion: The weighted cumulative pieces of evidence identified from global cases, data mining, and published literature are sufficient to support a causal association between the risk of skin cancer and methotrexate. Therefore, health care professionals should be aware of this possible risk and may consider monitoring any signs or symptoms of skin cancer in patients treated with methotrexate.

Keywords: methotrexate, skin cancer, signal detection, pharmacovigilance

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62 Workflow Based Inspection of Geometrical Adaptability from 3D CAD Models Considering Production Requirements

Authors: Tobias Huwer, Thomas Bobek, Gunter Spöcker

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Driving forces for enhancements in production are trends like digitalization and individualized production. Currently, such developments are restricted to assembly parts. Thus, complex freeform surfaces are not addressed in this context. The need for efficient use of resources and near-net-shape production will require individualized production of complex shaped workpieces. Due to variations between nominal model and actual geometry, this can lead to changes in operations in Computer-aided process planning (CAPP) to make CAPP manageable for an adaptive serial production. In this context, 3D CAD data can be a key to realizing that objective. Along with developments in the geometrical adaptation, a preceding inspection method based on CAD data is required to support the process planner by finding objective criteria to make decisions about the adaptive manufacturability of workpieces. Nowadays, this kind of decisions is depending on the experience-based knowledge of humans (e.g. process planners) and results in subjective decisions – leading to a variability of workpiece quality and potential failure in production. In this paper, we present an automatic part inspection method, based on design and measurement data, which evaluates actual geometries of single workpiece preforms. The aim is to automatically determine the suitability of the current shape for further machining, and to provide a basis for an objective decision about subsequent adaptive manufacturability. The proposed method is realized by a workflow-based approach, keeping in mind the requirements of industrial applications. Workflows are a well-known design method of standardized processes. Especially in applications like aerospace industry standardization and certification of processes are an important aspect. Function blocks, providing a standardized, event-driven abstraction to algorithms and data exchange, will be used for modeling and execution of inspection workflows. Each analysis step of the inspection, such as positioning of measurement data or checking of geometrical criteria, will be carried out by function blocks. One advantage of this approach is its flexibility to design workflows and to adapt algorithms specific to the application domain. In general, within the specified tolerance range it will be checked if a geometrical adaption is possible. The development of particular function blocks is predicated on workpiece specific information e.g. design data. Furthermore, for different product lifecycle phases, appropriate logics and decision criteria have to be considered. For example, tolerances for geometric deviations are different in type and size for new-part production compared to repair processes. In addition to function blocks, appropriate referencing systems are important. They need to support exact determination of position and orientation of the actual geometries to provide a basis for precise analysis. The presented approach provides an inspection methodology for adaptive and part-individual process chains. The analysis of each workpiece results in an inspection protocol and an objective decision about further manufacturability. A representative application domain is the product lifecycle of turbine blades containing a new-part production and a maintenance process. In both cases, a geometrical adaptation is required to calculate individual production data. In contrast to existing approaches, the proposed initial inspection method provides information to decide between different potential adaptive machining processes.

Keywords: adaptive, CAx, function blocks, turbomachinery

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61 The Soviet Union-Style of Urban Planning in China: Historical Review and Enlightenment from the Output Mode of Contemporary Cooperative Parks

Authors: Yifeng Shi, Xingping Wang

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The Soviet Union-style of urban planning has produced a broad and profound influence on China’s urban planning system. The study on extendibility and development experience of Soviet planning in China helps to change the current embarrassing situation 'one-hand planning practice, second-hand planning theory', and also beneficial to facilitate the establishment of China's domestic urban planning theory from the planning source, especially the overseas cooperation parks rich in 'Chinese characteristics'. In practice, as the world’s major infrastructure country, China is exporting to the world especially countries along 'the Belt and Road' a development model featuring cooperation parks as Chinese characteristics. This is of great significance to evaluate and summarize the experiences of Soviet Union-style of planning for China's development objectively and rationally, from removing ideological factors and extracting positive factors to carry them forward in overseas cooperation parks. This article briefly reviews the Soviet influence on urban planning after the founding of China and divided the influences stages into 'guidance, internalization and absorption, selective learning, decline' four periods. The impact includes production-oriented planning and planning concepts continue to be implemented, the establishment of the regional planning, master planning, detailed planning of the basic framework of urban planning, and homogenized cellular structure of the space, as well as planning techniques, professional training, planning techniques and so on. China and even most socialist countries now still carry such planning genes. At present, in the process of implementing 'the Belt and Road' strategy, the planning and construction of China’s overseas cooperation parks generally encounter many problems as lack of strategic planning and systematic planning, lack of top-level design, uncoordinated planning and layout in parks, and redundant construction in some areas. After sublating the planning genes of the Soviet Union-style of urban planning for the development of the socialist countries, especially the industrial planning system, this paper puts forward some views as follows to realize the overseas output and development of China's planning model and technology. Firstly the future development of overseas cooperation park should be from a rational planning point of view. Secondly the government should not only rigidly and equitably allocate the resources of the parks but also closely integrate the national economic plans or economic development strategies. Lastly management department should frame the threshold of development rationally, give full play to the pragmatic planning style in accordance with the local land system and planning system. It has an important guiding and reference role for the development of China's overseas cooperation park under the 'go global' strategy, after objectively evaluating the impact of the Soviet Union-style urban planning and absorbing the beneficial components on China. However, we should also recognize that the cooperation parks and the urban industrial system behind it are only part of urban development. More attention should be payed on the design of the local and the general rules of urban development to take the lead effect of cooperation parks suitable. Foundation item: Under the auspices of the Specific Plan for Strategic International Cooperation in Scientific and Technological Innovation, the National Key Research and Development Plan 'Research Cooperation and Exemplary Application in Planning of Development of Overseas Industrial Parks' (No 2016YFE0201000).

Keywords: China cooperative parks, history of urban planning, output mode, The Soviet Union

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60 Explanation of the Main Components of the Unsustainability of Cooperative Institutions in Cooperative Management Projects to Combat Desertification in South Khorasan Province

Authors: Yaser Ghasemi Aryan, Firoozeh Moghiminejad, Mohammadreza Shahraki

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Background: The cooperative institution is considered the first and most essential pillar of strengthening social capital, whose sustainability is the main guarantee of survival and continued participation of local communities in natural resource management projects. The Village Development Group and the Microcredit Fund are two important social and economic institutions in the implementation of the International Project for the Restoration of Degraded Forest Lands (RFLDL) in Sarayan City, South Khorasan Province, which has learned positive lessons from the participation of the beneficiaries in the implementation. They have brought more effective projects to deal with desertification. However, the low activity or liquidation of some of these institutions has become one of the important challenges and concerns of project executive experts. The current research was carried out with the aim of explaining the main components of the instability of these institutions. Materials and Methods: This research is descriptive-analytical in terms of method, practical in terms of purpose, and the method of collecting information is two documentary and survey methods. The statistical population of the research included all the members of the village development groups and microcredit funds in the target villages of the RFLDL project of Sarayan city, based on the Kochran formula and matching with the Karjesi and Morgan table. Net people were selected as a statistical sample. After confirming the validity of the expert's opinions, the reliability of the questionnaire was 0.83, which shows the appropriate reliability of the researcher-made questionnaire. Data analysis was done using SPSS software. Results: The results related to the extraction of obstacles to the stability of social and economic networks were classified and prioritized in the form of 5 groups of social-cultural, economic, administrative, educational-promotional and policy-management factors. Based on this, in the socio-cultural factors, the items ‘not paying attention to the structural characteristics and composition of groups’, ‘lack of commitment and moral responsibility in some members of the group,’ and ‘lack of a clear pattern for the preservation and survival of groups’, in the disciplinary factors, The items ‘Irregularity in holding group meetings’ and ‘Irregularity of members to participate in meetings’, in the economic factors of the items "small financial capital of the fund’, ‘the low amount of loans of the fund’ and ‘the fund's inability to conclude contracts and attract capital from other sources’, in the educational-promotional factors of the items ‘non-simultaneity of job training with the granting of loans to create jobs’ and ‘insufficient training for the effective use of loans and job creation’ and in the policy-management factors of the item ‘failure to provide government facilities for support From the funds, they had the highest priority. Conclusion: In general, the results of this research show that policy-management factors and social factors, especially the structure and composition of social and economic institutions, are the most important obstacles to their sustainability. Therefore, it is suggested to form cooperative institutions based on network analysis studies in order to achieve the appropriate composition of members.

Keywords: cooperative institution, social capital, network analysis, participation, Sarayan.

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59 Assessment of Occupational Exposure and Individual Radio-Sensitivity in People Subjected to Ionizing Radiation

Authors: Oksana G. Cherednichenko, Anastasia L. Pilyugina, Sergey N.Lukashenko, Elena G. Gubitskaya

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The estimation of accumulated radiation doses in people professionally exposed to ionizing radiation was performed using methods of biological (chromosomal aberrations frequency in lymphocytes) and physical (radionuclides analysis in urine, whole-body radiation meter, individual thermoluminescent dosimeters) dosimetry. A group of 84 "A" category employees after their work in the territory of former Semipalatinsk test site (Kazakhstan) was investigated. The dose rate in some funnels exceeds 40 μSv/h. After radionuclides determination in urine using radiochemical and WBC methods, it was shown that the total effective dose of personnel internal exposure did not exceed 0.2 mSv/year, while an acceptable dose limit for staff is 20 mSv/year. The range of external radiation doses measured with individual thermo-luminescent dosimeters was 0.3-1.406 µSv. The cytogenetic examination showed that chromosomal aberrations frequency in staff was 4.27±0.22%, which is significantly higher than at the people from non-polluting settlement Tausugur (0.87±0.1%) (р ≤ 0.01) and citizens of Almaty (1.6±0.12%) (р≤ 0.01). Chromosomal type aberrations accounted for 2.32±0.16%, 0.27±0.06% of which were dicentrics and centric rings. The cytogenetic analysis of different types group radiosensitivity among «professionals» (age, sex, ethnic group, epidemiological data) revealed no significant differences between the compared values. Using various techniques by frequency of dicentrics and centric rings, the average cumulative radiation dose for group was calculated, and that was 0.084-0.143 Gy. To perform comparative individual dosimetry using physical and biological methods of dose assessment, calibration curves (including own ones) and regression equations based on general frequency of chromosomal aberrations obtained after irradiation of blood samples by gamma-radiation with the dose rate of 0,1 Gy/min were used. Herewith, on the assumption of individual variation of chromosomal aberrations frequency (1–10%), the accumulated dose of radiation varied 0-0.3 Gy. The main problem in the interpretation of individual dosimetry results is reduced to different reaction of the objects to irradiation - radiosensitivity, which dictates the need of quantitative definition of this individual reaction and its consideration in the calculation of the received radiation dose. The entire examined contingent was assigned to a group based on the received dose and detected cytogenetic aberrations. Radiosensitive individuals, at the lowest received dose in a year, showed the highest frequency of chromosomal aberrations (5.72%). In opposite, radioresistant individuals showed the lowest frequency of chromosomal aberrations (2.8%). The cohort correlation according to the criterion of radio-sensitivity in our research was distributed as follows: radio-sensitive (26.2%) — medium radio-sensitivity (57.1%), radioresistant (16.7%). Herewith, the dispersion for radioresistant individuals is 2.3; for the group with medium radio-sensitivity — 3.3; and for radio-sensitive group — 9. These data indicate the highest variation of characteristic (reactions to radiation effect) in the group of radio-sensitive individuals. People with medium radio-sensitivity show significant long-term correlation (0.66; n=48, β ≥ 0.999) between the values of doses defined according to the results of cytogenetic analysis and dose of external radiation obtained with the help of thermoluminescent dosimeters. Mathematical models based on the type of violation of the radiation dose according to the professionals radiosensitivity level were offered.

Keywords: biodosimetry, chromosomal aberrations, ionizing radiation, radiosensitivity

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58 Facilitating Primary Care Practitioners to Improve Outcomes for People With Oropharyngeal Dysphagia Living in the Community: An Ongoing Realist Review

Authors: Caroline Smith, Professor Debi Bhattacharya, Sion Scott

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Introduction: Oropharyngeal Dysphagia (OD) effects around 15% of older people, however it is often unrecognised and under diagnosed until they are hospitalised. There is a need for primary care healthcare practitioners (HCPs) to assume a proactive role in identifying and managing OD to prevent adverse outcomes such as aspiration pneumonia. Understanding the determinants of primary care HCPs undertaking this new behaviour provides the intervention targets for addressing. This realist review, underpinned by the Theoretical Domains Framework (TDF), aims to synthesise relevant literature and develop programme theories to understand what interventions work, how they work and under what circumstances to facilitate HCPs to prevent harm from OD. Combining realist methodology with behavioural science will permit conceptualisation of intervention components as theoretical behavioural constructs, thus informing the design of a future behaviour change intervention. Furthermore, through the TDF’s linkage to a taxonomy of behaviour change techniques, we will identify corresponding behaviour change techniques to include in this intervention. Methods & analysis: We are following the five steps for undertaking a realist review: 1) clarify the scope 2) Literature search 3) appraise and extract data 4) evidence synthesis 5) evaluation. We have searched Medline, Google scholar, PubMed, EMBASE, CINAHL, AMED, Scopus and PsycINFO databases. We are obtaining additional evidence through grey literature, snowball sampling, lateral searching and consulting the stakeholder group. Literature is being screened, evaluated and synthesised in Excel and Nvivo. We will appraise evidence in relation to its relevance and rigour. Data will be extracted and synthesised according to its relation to Initial programme theories (IPTs). IPTs were constructed after the preliminary literature search, informed by the TDF and with input from a stakeholder group of patient and public involvement advisors, general practitioners, speech and language therapists, geriatricians and pharmacists. We will follow the Realist and Meta-narrative Evidence Syntheses: Evolving Standards (RAMESES) quality and publication standards to report study results. Results: In this ongoing review our search has identified 1417 manuscripts with approximately 20% progressing to full text screening. We inductively generated 10 IPTs that hypothesise practitioners require: the knowledge to spot the signs and symptoms of OD; the skills to provide initial advice and support; and access to resources in their working environment to support them conducting these new behaviours. We mapped the 10 IPTs to 8 TDF domains and then generated a further 12 IPTs deductively using domain definitions to fulfil the remaining 6 TDF domains. Deductively generated IPTs broadened our thinking to consider domains such as ‘Emotion,’ ‘Optimism’ and ‘Social Influence’, e.g. If practitioners perceive that patients, carers and relatives expect initial advice and support, then they will be more likely to provide this, because they will feel obligated to do so. After prioritisation with stakeholders using a modified nominal group technique approach, a maximum of 10 IPTs will progress to test against the literature.

Keywords: behaviour change, deglutition disorders, primary healthcare, realist review

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57 Essential Oils of Polygonum L. Plants Growing in Kazakhstan and Their Antibacterial and Antifungal Activity

Authors: Dmitry Yu. Korulkin, Raissa A. Muzychkina

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Bioactive substances of plant origin can be one of the advanced means of solution to the issue of combined therapy to inflammation. The main advantages of medical plants are softness and width of their therapeutic effect on an organism, the absence of side effects and complications even if the used continuously, high tolerability by patients. Moreover, medial plants are often the only and (or) cost-effective sources of natural biologically active substances and medicines. Along with other biologically active groups of chemical compounds, essential oils with wide range of pharmacological effects became very ingrained in medical practice. Essential oil was obtained by the method hydrodistillation air-dry aerial part of Polygonum L. plants using Clevenger apparatus. Qualitative composition of essential oils was analyzed by chromatography-mass-spectrometry method using Agilent 6890N apparatus. The qualitative analysis is based on the comparison of retention time and full mass-spectra with respective data on components of reference oils and pure compounds, if there were any, and with the data of libraries of mass-spectra Wiley 7th edition and NIST 02. The main components of essential oil are for: Polygonum amphibium L. - γ-terpinene, borneol, piperitol, 1,8-cyneole, α-pinene, linalool, terpinolene and sabinene; Polygonum minus Huds. Fl. Angl. – linalool, terpinolene, camphene, borneol, 1,8-cyneole, α-pinene, 4-terpineol and 1-octen-3-ol; Polygonum alpinum All. – camphene, sabinene, 1-octen-3-ol, 4-carene, p- and o-cymol, γ-terpinene, borneol, -terpineol; Polygonum persicaria L. - α-pinene, sabinene, -terpinene, 4-carene, 1,8-cyneole, borneol, 4-terpineol. Antibacterial activity was researched relating to strains of gram-positive bacteria Staphylococcus aureus, Bacillus subtilis, Streptococcus agalacticae, relating to gram-negative strain Escherichia coli and to yeast fungus Сandida albicans using agar diffusion method. The medicines of comparison were gentamicin for bacteria and nystatin for yeast fungus Сandida albicans. It has been shown that Polygonum L. essential oils has moderate antibacterial effect to gram-positive microorganisms and weak antifungal activity to Candida albicans yeast fungus. At the second stage of our researches wound healing properties of ointment form of 3% essential oil was researched on the model of flat dermal wounds. To assess the influence of essential oil on healing processes the model of flat dermal wound. The speed of wound healing on rats of different groups was judged based on assessment the area of a wound from time to time. During research of wound healing properties disturbance of integral in neither group: general condition and behavior of animals, food intake, and excretion. Wound healing action of 3% ointment on base of Polygonum L. essential oil and polyethyleneglycol is comparable with the action of reference substances. As more favorable healing dynamics was observed in the experimental group than in control group, the tested ointment can be deemed more promising for further detailed study as wound healing means.

Keywords: antibacterial, antifungal, bioactive substances, essential oils, isolation, Polygonum L.

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56 Voices of Dissent: Case Study of a Digital Archive of Testimonies of Political Oppression

Authors: Andrea Scapolo, Zaya Rustamova, Arturo Matute Castro

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The “Voices in Dissent” initiative aims at collecting and making available in a digital format, testimonies, letters, and other narratives produced by victims of political oppression from different geographical spaces across the Atlantic. By recovering silenced voices behind the official narratives, this open-access online database will provide indispensable tools for rewriting the history of authoritarian regimes from the margins as memory debates continue to provoke controversy among academic and popular transnational circles. In providing an extensive database of non-hegemonic discourses in a variety of political and social contexts, the project will complement the existing European and Latin-American studies, and invite further interdisciplinary and trans-national research. This digital resource will be available to academic communities and the general audience and will be organized geographically and chronologically. “Voices in Dissent” will offer a first comprehensive study of these personal accounts of persecution and repression against determined historical backgrounds and their impact on collective memory formation in contemporary societies. The digitalization of these texts will allow to run metadata analyses and adopt comparatist approaches for a broad range of research endeavors. Most of the testimonies included in our archive are testimonies of trauma: the trauma of exile, imprisonment, torture, humiliation, censorship. The research on trauma has now reached critical mass and offers a broad spectrum of critical perspectives. By putting together testimonies from different geographical and historical contexts, our project will provide readers and scholars with an extraordinary opportunity to investigate how culture shapes individual and collective memories and provides or denies resources to make sense and cope with the trauma. For scholars dealing with the epistemological and rhetorical analysis of testimonies, an online open-access archive will prove particularly beneficial to test theories on truth status and the formation of belief as well as to study the articulation of discourse. An important aspect of this project is also its pedagogical applications since it will contribute to the creation of Open Educational Resources (OER) to support students and educators worldwide. Through collaborations with our Library System, the archive will form part of the Digital Commons database. The texts collected in this online archive will be made available in the original languages as well as in English translation. They will be accompanied by a critical apparatus that will contextualize them historically by providing relevant background information and bibliographical references. All these materials can serve as a springboard for a broad variety of educational projects and classroom activities. They can also be used to design specific content courses or modules. In conclusion, the desirable outcomes of the “Voices in Dissent” project are: 1. the collections and digitalization of political dissent testimonies; 2. the building of a network of scholars, educators, and learners involved in the design, development, and sustainability of the digital archive; 3. the integration of the content of the archive in both research and teaching endeavors, such as publication of scholarly articles, design of new upper-level courses, and integration of the materials in existing courses.

Keywords: digital archive, dissent, open educational resources, testimonies, transatlantic studies

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55 Comprehensive Literature Review of the Humanistic Burden of Clostridium (Clostridiodes) difficile Infection

Authors: Caroline Seo, Jennifer Stephens, Kirstin H. Heinrich

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Background: Clostridiodes (formerly Clostridium) difficile infection (CDI) is an anaerobic, spore-forming bacterium with manifestations including diarrhea, pseudomembranous colitis and toxic megacolon. Despite general understanding that CDI may be associated with marked burden on patients’ health, there has been limited information available on the humanistic burden of CDI. The objective of this literature review was to summarize the published data on the humanistic burden of CDI globally, in order to better inform future research efforts and increase awareness of the patient perspective in this disease. Methods: A comprehensive literature review of the past 15 years (2002-2017) was conducted using MEDLINE, Embase and Cumulative Index of Nursing and Allied Health Literature. Additional searches were conducted from conference proceedings (2015-2017). Articles selected were studies specifically designed to examine the humanistic burden of illness associated with adult patients with CDI. Results: Of 3,325 articles or abstracts identified, 33 remained after screening and full text review. Sixty percent (60%) were published in 2016 or 2017. Data from the United States or Western Europe were most common. Data from Brazil, Canada, China and Spain also exist. Thirteen (13) studies used validated patient-reported outcomes instruments, mostly EQ-5D utility and SF-36 generic instruments. Three (3) studies used CDI-specific instruments (CDiff32, CDI-DaySyms). The burden of CDI impacts patients in multiple health-related quality of life (HRQOL) domains. SF-36 domains with the largest decrements compared to other GI diarrheal diseases (IBS-D and Crohn’s) were role physical, physical functioning, vitality, social functioning, and role emotional. Reported EQ-5D utilities for CDI ranged from 0.35-0.42 compared to 0.65 in Crohn’s and 0.72 in IBS-D. The majority of papers addressed physical functioning and mental health domains (67% for both). Across various studies patients reported weakness, lack of appetite, sleep disturbance, functional dependence, and decreased activities of daily lives due to the continuous diarrhea. Due to lack of control over this infection, CDI also impacts the psychological and emotional quality of life of the patients. Patients reported feelings of fear, anxiety, frustration, depression, and embarrassment. Additionally, the type of disease (primary vs. recurrent) may impact mental health. One study indicated that there is a decrement in SF-36 mental scores in patients with recurrent CDI, in comparison to patients with primary CDI. Other domains highlighted by these studies include pain (27%), social isolation (27%), vitality and fatigue (24%), self-care (9%), and caregiver burden (0%). Two studies addressed work productivity, with 1 of these studies reporting that CDI patients had the highest work productivity and activity impairment scores among the gastrointestinal diseases. No study specifically included caregiver self-report. However, 3 studies did provide mention of patients’ worry on how their diagnosis of CDI would impact family, caregivers, and/or friends. Conclusions: Despite being a serious public health issue there has been a paucity of research on the HRQOL among those with CDI. While progress is being made, gaps exist in understanding the burden on patients, caregivers, and families. Future research is warranted to aid understanding of the CDI patient perspective.

Keywords: burden, Clostridiodes, difficile, humanistic, infection

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54 Development and Experimental Validation of Coupled Flow-Aerosol Microphysics Model for Hot Wire Generator

Authors: K. Ghosh, S. N. Tripathi, Manish Joshi, Y. S. Mayya, Arshad Khan, B. K. Sapra

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We have developed a CFD coupled aerosol microphysics model in the context of aerosol generation from a glowing wire. The governing equations can be solved implicitly for mass, momentum, energy transfer along with aerosol dynamics. The computationally efficient framework can simulate temporal behavior of total number concentration and number size distribution. This formulation uniquely couples standard K-Epsilon scheme with boundary layer model with detailed aerosol dynamics through residence time. This model uses measured temperatures (wire surface and axial/radial surroundings) and wire compositional data apart from other usual inputs for simulations. The model predictions show that bulk fluid motion and local heat distribution can significantly affect the aerosol behavior when the buoyancy effect in momentum transfer is considered. Buoyancy generated turbulence was found to be affecting parameters related to aerosol dynamics and transport as well. The model was validated by comparing simulated predictions with results obtained from six controlled experiments performed with a laboratory-made hot wire nanoparticle generator. Condensation particle counter (CPC) and scanning mobility particle sizer (SMPS) were used for measurement of total number concentration and number size distribution at the outlet of reactor cell during these experiments. Our model-predicted results were found to be in reasonable agreement with observed values. The developed model is fast (fully implicit) and numerically stable. It can be used specifically for applications in the context of the behavior of aerosol particles generated from glowing wire technique and in general for other similar large scale domains. Incorporation of CFD in aerosol microphysics framework provides a realistic platform to study natural convection driven systems/ applications. Aerosol dynamics sub-modules (nucleation, coagulation, wall deposition) have been coupled with Navier Stokes equations modified to include buoyancy coupled K-Epsilon turbulence model. Coupled flow-aerosol dynamics equation was solved numerically and in the implicit scheme. Wire composition and temperature (wire surface and cell domain) were obtained/measured, to be used as input for the model simulations. Model simulations showed a significant effect of fluid properties on the dynamics of aerosol particles. The role of buoyancy was highlighted by observation and interpretation of nucleation zones in the planes above the wire axis. The model was validated against measured temporal evolution, total number concentration and size distribution at the outlet of hot wire generator cell. Experimentally averaged and simulated total number concentrations were found to match closely, barring values at initial times. Steady-state number size distribution matched very well for sub 10 nm particle diameters while reasonable differences were noticed for higher size ranges. Although tuned specifically for the present context (i.e., aerosol generation from hotwire generator), the model can also be used for diverse applications, e.g., emission of particles from hot zones (chimneys, exhaust), fires and atmospheric cloud dynamics.

Keywords: nanoparticles, k-epsilon model, buoyancy, CFD, hot wire generator, aerosol dynamics

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53 Horizontal Cooperative Game Theory in Hotel Revenue Management

Authors: Ririh Rahma Ratinghayu, Jayu Pramudya, Nur Aini Masruroh, Shi-Woei Lin

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This research studies pricing strategy in cooperative setting of hotel duopoly selling perishable product under fixed capacity constraint by using the perspective of managers. In hotel revenue management, competitor’s average room rate and occupancy rate should be taken into manager’s consideration in determining pricing strategy to generate optimum revenue. This information is not provided by business intelligence or available in competitor’s website. Thus, Information Sharing (IS) among players might result in improved performance of pricing strategy. IS is widely adopted in the logistics industry, but IS within hospitality industry has not been well-studied. This research put IS as one of cooperative game schemes, besides Mutual Price Setting (MPS) scheme. In off-peak season, hotel manager arranges pricing strategy to offer promotion package and various kinds of discounts up to 60% of full-price to attract customers. Competitor selling homogenous product will react the same, then triggers a price war. Price war which generates lower revenue may be avoided by creating collaboration in pricing strategy to optimize payoff for both players. In MPS cooperative game, players collaborate to set a room rate applied for both players. Cooperative game may avoid unfavorable players’ payoff caused by price war. Researches on horizontal cooperative game in logistics show better performance and payoff for the players, however, horizontal cooperative game in hotel revenue management has not been demonstrated. This paper aims to develop hotel revenue management models under duopoly cooperative schemes (IS & MPS), which are compared to models under non-cooperative scheme too. Each scheme has five models, Capacity Allocation Model; Demand Model; Revenue Model; Optimal Price Model; and Equilibrium Price Model. Capacity Allocation Model and Demand Model employs self-hotel and competitor’s full and discount price as predictors under non-linear relation. Optimal price is obtained by assuming revenue maximization motive. Equilibrium price is observed by interacting self-hotel’s and competitor’s optimal price under reaction equation. Equilibrium is analyzed using game theory approach. The sequence applies for three schemes. MPS Scheme differently aims to optimize total players’ payoff. The case study in which theoretical models are applied observes two hotels offering homogenous product in Indonesia during a year. The Capacity Allocation, Demand, and Revenue Models are built using multiple regression and statistically tested for validation. Case study data confirms that price behaves within demand model in a non-linear manner. IS Models can represent the actual demand and revenue data better than Non-IS Models. Furthermore, IS enables hotels to earn significantly higher revenue. Thus, duopoly hotel players in general, might have reasonable incentives to share information horizontally. During off-peak season, MPS Models are able to predict the optimal equal price for both hotels. However, Nash equilibrium may not always exist depending on actual payoff of adhering or betraying mutual agreement. To optimize performance, horizontal cooperative game may be chosen over non-cooperative game. Mathematical models can be used to detect collusion among business players. Empirical testing can be used as policy input for market regulator in preventing unethical business practices potentially harming society welfare.

Keywords: horizontal cooperative game theory, hotel revenue management, information sharing, mutual price setting

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52 Multibody Constrained Dynamics of Y-Method Installation System for a Large Scale Subsea Equipment

Authors: Naeem Ullah, Menglan Duan, Mac Darlington Uche Onuoha

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The lowering of subsea equipment into the deep waters is a challenging job due to the harsh offshore environment. Many researchers have introduced various installation systems to deploy the payload safely into the deep oceans. In general practice, dual floating vessels are not employed owing to the prevalent safety risks and hazards caused by ever-increasing dynamical effects sourced by mutual interaction between the bodies. However, while keeping in the view of the optimal grounds, such as economical one, the Y-method, the two conventional tugboats supporting the equipment by the two independent strands connected to a tri-plate above the equipment, has been employed to study multibody dynamics of the dual barge lifting operations. In this study, the two tugboats and the suspended payload (Y-method) are deployed for the lowering of subsea equipment into the deep waters as a multibody dynamic system. The two-wire ropes are used for the lifting and installation operation by this Y-method installation system. 6-dof (degree of freedom) for each body are considered to establish coupled 18-dof multibody model by embedding technique or velocity transformation technique. The fundamental and prompt advantage of this technique is that the constraint forces can be eliminated directly, and no extra computational effort is required for the elimination of the constraint forces. The inertial frame of reference is taken at the surface of the water as the time-independent frame of reference, and the floating frames of reference are introduced in each body as the time-dependent frames of reference in order to formulate the velocity transformation matrix. The local transformation of the generalized coordinates to the inertial frame of reference is executed by applying the Euler Angle approach. The spherical joints are articulated amongst the multibody as the kinematic joints. The hydrodynamic force, the two-strand forces, the hydrostatic force, and the mooring forces are taken into consideration as the external forces. The radiation force of the hydrodynamic force is obtained by employing the Cummins equation. The wave exciting part of the hydrodynamic force is obtained by using force response amplitude operators (RAOs) that are obtained by the commercial solver ‘OpenFOAM’. The strand force is obtained by considering the wire rope as an elastic spring. The nonlinear hydrostatic force is obtained by the pressure integration technique at each time step of the wave movement. The mooring forces are evaluated by using Faltinsen analytical approach. ‘The Runge Kutta Method’ of Fourth-Order is employed to evaluate the coupled equations of motion obtained for 18-dof multibody model. The results are correlated with the simulated Orcaflex Model. Moreover, the results from Orcaflex Model are compared with the MOSES Model from previous studies. The MBDS of single barge lifting operation from the former studies are compared with the MBDS of the established dual barge lifting operation. The dynamics of the dual barge lifting operation are found larger in magnitude as compared to the single barge lifting operation. It is noticed that the traction at the top connection point of the cable decreases with the increase in the length, and it becomes almost constant after passing through the splash zone.

Keywords: dual barge lifting operation, Y-method, multibody dynamics, shipbuilding, installation of subsea equipment, shipbuilding

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51 Large-Scale Simulations of Turbulence Using Discontinuous Spectral Element Method

Authors: A. Peyvan, D. Li, J. Komperda, F. Mashayek

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Turbulence can be observed in a variety fluid motions in nature and industrial applications. Recent investment in high-speed aircraft and propulsion systems has revitalized fundamental research on turbulent flows. In these systems, capturing chaotic fluid structures with different length and time scales is accomplished through the Direct Numerical Simulation (DNS) approach since it accurately simulates flows down to smallest dissipative scales, i.e., Kolmogorov’s scales. The discontinuous spectral element method (DSEM) is a high-order technique that uses spectral functions for approximating the solution. The DSEM code has been developed by our research group over the course of more than two decades. Recently, the code has been improved to run large cases in the order of billions of solution points. Running big simulations requires a considerable amount of RAM. Therefore, the DSEM code must be highly parallelized and able to start on multiple computational nodes on an HPC cluster with distributed memory. However, some pre-processing procedures, such as determining global element information, creating a global face list, and assigning global partitioning and element connection information of the domain for communication, must be done sequentially with a single processing core. A separate code has been written to perform the pre-processing procedures on a local machine. It stores the minimum amount of information that is required for the DSEM code to start in parallel, extracted from the mesh file, into text files (pre-files). It packs integer type information with a Stream Binary format in pre-files that are portable between machines. The files are generated to ensure fast read performance on different file-systems, such as Lustre and General Parallel File System (GPFS). A new subroutine has been added to the DSEM code to read the startup files using parallel MPI I/O, for Lustre, in a way that each MPI rank acquires its information from the file in parallel. In case of GPFS, in each computational node, a single MPI rank reads data from the file, which is specifically generated for the computational node, and send them to other ranks on the node using point to point non-blocking MPI communication. This way, communication takes place locally on each node and signals do not cross the switches of the cluster. The read subroutine has been tested on Argonne National Laboratory’s Mira (GPFS), National Center for Supercomputing Application’s Blue Waters (Lustre), San Diego Supercomputer Center’s Comet (Lustre), and UIC’s Extreme (Lustre). The tests showed that one file per node is suited for GPFS and parallel MPI I/O is the best choice for Lustre file system. The DSEM code relies on heavily optimized linear algebra operation such as matrix-matrix and matrix-vector products for calculation of the solution in every time-step. For this, the code can either make use of its matrix math library, BLAS, Intel MKL, or ATLAS. This fact and the discontinuous nature of the method makes the DSEM code run efficiently in parallel. The results of weak scaling tests performed on Blue Waters showed a scalable and efficient performance of the code in parallel computing.

Keywords: computational fluid dynamics, direct numerical simulation, spectral element, turbulent flow

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50 Adapting to College: Exploration of Psychological Well-Being, Coping, and Identity as Markers of Readiness

Authors: Marit D. Murry, Amy K. Marks

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The transition to college is a critical period that affords abundant opportunities for growth in conjunction with novel challenges for emerging adults. During this time, emerging adults are garnering experiences and acquiring hosts of new information that they are required to synthesize and use to inform life-shaping decisions. This stage is characterized by instability and exploration, which necessitates a diverse set of coping skills to successfully navigate and positively adapt to their evolving environment. However, important sociocultural factors result in differences that occur developmentally for minority emerging adults (i.e., emerging adults with an identity that has been or is marginalized). While the transition to college holds vast potential, not all are afforded the same chances, and many individuals enter into this stage at varying degrees of readiness. Understanding the nuance and diversity of student preparedness for college and contextualizing these factors will better equip systems to support incoming students. Emerging adulthood for ethnic, racial minority students presents itself as an opportunity for growth and resiliency in the face of systemic adversity. Ethnic, racial identity (ERI) is defined as an identity that develops as a function of one’s ethnic-racial group membership. Research continues to demonstrate ERI as a resilience factor that promotes positive adjustment in young adulthood. Adaptive coping responses (e.g., engaging in help-seeking behavior, drawing on personal and community resources) have been identified as possible mechanisms through which ERI buffers youth against stressful life events, including discrimination. Additionally, trait mindfulness has been identified as a significant predictor of general psychological health, and mindfulness practice has been shown to be a self-regulatory strategy that promotes healthy stress responses and adaptive coping strategy selection. The current study employed a person-centered approach to explore emerging patterns across ethnic identity development and psychological well-being criterion variables among college freshmen. Data from 283 incoming college freshmen at Northeastern University were analyzed. The Brief COPE Acceptance and Emotional Support scales, the Five Factor Mindfulness Questionnaire, and MIEM Exploration and Affirmation measures were used to inform the cluster profiles. The TwoStep auto-clustering algorithm revealed an optimal three-cluster solution (BIC = 848.49), which classified 92.6% (n = 262) of participants in the sample into one of the three clusters. The clusters were characterized as ‘Mixed Adjustment’, ‘Lowest Adjustment’, and ‘Moderate Adjustment.’ Cluster composition varied significantly by ethnicity X² (2, N = 262) = 7.74 (p = .021) and gender X² (2, N = 259) = 10.40 (p = .034). The ‘Lowest Adjustment’ cluster contained the highest proportion of students of color, 41% (n = 32), and male-identifying students, 44.2% (n = 34). Follow-up analyses showed higher ERI exploration in ‘Moderate Adjustment’ cluster members, also reported higher levels of psychological distress, with significantly elevated depression scores (p = .011), psychological diagnoses of depression (p = .013), anxiety (p = .005) and psychiatric disorders (p = .025). Supporting prior research, students engaging with identity exploration processes often endure more psychological distress. These results indicate that students undergoing identity development may require more socialization and different services beyond normal strategies.

Keywords: adjustment, coping, college, emerging adulthood, ethnic-racial identity, psychological well-being, resilience

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49 Flood Risk Assessment for Agricultural Production in a Tropical River Delta Considering Climate Change

Authors: Chandranath Chatterjee, Amina Khatun, Bhabagrahi Sahoo

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With the changing climate, precipitation events are intensified in the tropical river basins. Since these river basins are significantly influenced by the monsoonal rainfall pattern, critical impacts are observed on the agricultural practices in the downstream river reaches. This study analyses the crop damage and associated flood risk in terms of net benefit in the paddy-dominated tropical Indian delta of the Mahanadi River. The Mahanadi River basin lies in eastern part of the Indian sub-continent and is greatly affected by the southwest monsoon rainfall extending from the month of June to September. This river delta is highly flood-prone and has suffered from recurring high floods, especially after the 2000s. In this study, the lumped conceptual model, Nedbør Afstrømnings Model (NAM) from the suite of MIKE models, is used for rainfall-runoff modeling. The NAM model is laterally integrated with the MIKE11-Hydrodynamic (HD) model to route the runoffs up to the head of the delta region. To obtain the precipitation-derived future projected discharges at the head of the delta, nine Global Climate Models (GCMs), namely, BCC-CSM1.1(m), GFDL-CM3, GFDL-ESM2G, HadGEM2-AO, IPSL-CM5A-LR, IPSL-CM5A-MR, MIROC5, MIROC-ESM-CHEM and NorESM1-M, available in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-Phase 5 (CMIP5) archive are considered. These nine GCMs are previously found to best-capture the Indian Summer Monsoon rainfall. Based on the performance of the nine GCMs in reproducing the historical discharge pattern, three GCMs (HadGEM2-AO, IPSL-CM5A-MR and MIROC-ESM-CHEM) are selected. A higher Taylor Skill Score is considered as the GCM selection criteria. Thereafter, the 10-year return period design flood is estimated using L-moments based flood frequency analysis for the historical and three future projected periods (2010-2039, 2040-2069 and 2070-2099) under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. A non-dimensional hydrograph analysis is performed to obtain the hydrographs for the historical/projected 10-year return period design floods. These hydrographs are forced into the calibrated and validated coupled 1D-2D hydrodynamic model, MIKE FLOOD, to simulate the flood inundation in the delta region. Historical and projected flood risk is defined based on the information about the flood inundation simulated by the MIKE FLOOD model and the inundation depth-damage-duration relationship of a normal rice variety cultivated in the river delta. In general, flood risk is expected to increase in all the future projected time periods as compared to the historical episode. Further, in comparison to the 2010s (2010-2039), an increased flood risk in the 2040s (2040-2069) is shown by all the three selected GCMs. However, the flood risk then declines in the 2070s as we move towards the end of the century (2070-2099). The methodology adopted herein for flood risk assessment is one of its kind and may be implemented in any world-river basin. The results obtained from this study can help in future flood preparedness by implementing suitable flood adaptation strategies.

Keywords: flood frequency analysis, flood risk, global climate models (GCMs), paddy cultivation

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48 Assigning Moral Positions Caused by Environmental Degradation in San Buenaventura Public Housing Complex in Ixtapaluca, State of Mexico, Mexico

Authors: Ángel O. Aldape, José M. Bustos, José G. Guízar

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Building companies providing public housing in Mexico, such as INFONAVIT, Casas GEO, Casas ARA, among others, provide low-interest home loans for thousands of Mexican families and individuals to buy a home. However, once this goal is achieved, these companies are not responsible for the care and maintenance of green areas and waste collection services because, technically, it is the local municipalities’ responsibility to provide these services to the community. However, this does not always occur with local municipalities. To study this problem, the San Buenaventura public housing complex was selected. This housing complex is located in the municipality of Ixtapaluca, State of Mexico (Estado de Mexico), Mexico. To our best knowledge, there are currently no formal studies about San Buenaventura that can offer effective options and/or better ways of sorting and disposing households’ wastes, as well as improving local green areas (community gardens and parks). Only a few web-blogs and periodical reports have addressed these serious problems that directly affect the social and psychological well-being of residents. The main goal of this research project aims to improve our understanding towards the existing ontological elements that emerge from residents’ discourses (in the form of informal talks and gossip) and discover the socio-physical elements that they use to assign moral positions onto others or onto themselves. The theoretical framework used in this study is based on two constructionist theories: positioning theory and site ontology. The first theory offered the opportunity to explore the rights, duties, and obligations assigned to a social role (or moral position) of the participants. The second theory provided a constructionist philosophical base that includes various socio-physical elements that are considered to assign personal or community meanings to particular contexts. Both theories contributed to defining personal dispositions and/or attitudes to carry out concrete social action or practice. The theoretical framework was guided by a relativistic ontology that allowed the researcher to better interpret the reality of the participants of this study. A descriptive-interpretative methodology was used, and two qualitative methods were arranged based on the theoretical framework proposed as follows: a semi-structured focus group interview, and direct observations. The semi-structured focus group was carried out with four residents of San Buenaventura and covert observations of public spaces and houses were carried out. These were analysed and interpreted by the researcher and assisted by NVivo software. The results suggest that the participants assigned moral traits of responsibility to other residents regarding the problem of the neglect of the green areas and waste pollution. The results suggest that all participants agreed to assign moral traits to other residents making them liable for the environmental degradation and the decay of green areas. They neither assigned any moral duty nor responsible moral traits onto themselves towards environmental protection or destruction. Overall, the participants in this study pointed out that external ontological elements such as the local government, infrastructure or cleaning services were not main cause of these environmental problems but rather the general lack of moral duty and disposition of other residents.

Keywords: conversation, environment, housing, moral, ontology, position, public, site, talks

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47 Implementation of Autologous Adipose Graft from the Abdomen for Complete Fat Pad Loss of the Heel Following a Traumatic Open Fracture Secondary to a Motor Vehicle Accident: A Case Study

Authors: Ahmad Saad, Shuja Abbas, Breanna Marine

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Introduction: This study explores the potential applications of autologous pedal fat pad grafting as a minimally invasive therapeutic strategy for addressing pedal fat pad loss. Without adequate shock absorbing tissue, a patient can experience functional deficits, ulcerations, loss of quality of life, and significant limitations with ambulation. This study details a novel technique involving autologous adipose grafting from the abdomen to enhance plantar fat pad thickness in a patient involved in a severe motor vehicle accident which resulted in total fat pad loss of the heel. Autologous adipose grafting (AAG) was used following adipose allografting in an effort to recreate a normal shock absorbing surface to allow return to activities of daily living and painless ambulation. Methods: A 46-year-old male sustained multiple open pedal fractures and necrosis to the heel fat pad after a motorcycle accident, which resulted in complete loss of the calcaneal fat pad. The patient underwent serial debridement’s, utilization of wound vac therapy and split thickness skin grafting to accomplish complete closure, despite complete loss of adipose to area. Patient presented with complaints of pain on ambulation, inability to bear weight on the heel, recurrent ulcerations, admitted had not been ambulating for two years. Clinical exam demonstrated complete loss of the plantar fat pad with a thin layer of epithelial tissue overlying the calcaneal bone, allowing visibility of the osseous contour of the calcaneus. Scar tissue had formed in place of the fat pad, with thickened epithelial tissue extending from the midfoot to the calcaneus. After conservative measures were exhausted, the patient opted for initial management by adipose allograft matrix (AAM) injections. Post operative X-ray imaging revealed noticeable improvement in calcaneal fat pad thickness. At 1 year follow up, the patient was able to ambulate without assistive devices. The fat pad at this point was significantly thicker than it was pre-operatively, but the thickness did not restore to pre-accident thickness. In order to compare the take of allograft versus autografting of adipose tissue, the decision to use adipose autograft through abdominal liposuction harvesting was deemed suitable. A general surgeon completed harvesting of adipose cells from the patient’s abdomen via liposuction, and a podiatric surgeon performed the AAG injection into the heel. Total of 15 cc’s of autologous adipose tissue injected to the calcaneus. Results: There was a visual increase in the calcaneal fat pad thickness both clinically and radiographically. At the 6-week follow up, imaging revealed retention of the calcaneal fat pad thickness. Three months postop, patient returned to activities of daily living and increased quality of life due to their increased ability to ambulate. Discussion: AAG is a novel treatment for pedal fat pad loss. These treatments may be viable and reproducible therapeutic choices for patients suffering from fat pad atrophy, fat pad loss, and/or plantar ulcerations. Both treatments of AAM and AAG exhibited similar therapeutic results by providing pain relief for ambulation and allowing for patients to return to their quality of life.

Keywords: podiatry, wound, adipose, allograft, autograft, wound care, limb reconstruction, injection, limb salvage

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46 Bicycle Tourism and Sharing Economy (C2C-Tourism): Analysis of the Reciprocity Behavior in the Case of Warmshowers

Authors: Jana Heimel, Franziska Drescher, Lauren Ugur, Graciela Kuchle

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Sharing platforms are a widely investigated field. However, there is a research gap with a lack of focus on ‘real’ (non-profit-orientated) sharing platforms. The research project addresses this gap by conducting an empirical study on a private peer-to-peer (P2P) network to investigate cooperative behavior from a socio-psychological perspective. In recent years the conversion from possession to accessing is increasingly influencing different sectors, particularly the traveling industry. The number of people participating in hospitality exchange platforms like Airbnb, Couchsurfing, and Warmshowers (WS) is rapidly growing. WS is an increasingly popular online community that is linking cycling tourists and locals. It builds on the idea of the “sharing economy” as a not-for-profit hospitality network for bicycle tourists. Hosts not only provide a sleeping berth and warm shower free of charge but also offer additional services to their guests, such as cooking and washing clothes for them. According to previous studies, they are motivated by the idea of promoting cultural experience and forming new friendships. Trust and reciprocity are supposed to play major roles in the success of such platforms. The objective of this research project is to analyze the reciprocity behavior within the WS community. Reciprocity is the act of giving and taking among each other. Individuals feel obligated to return a favor and often expect to increase their own chances of receiving future benefits for themselves. Consequently, the drivers that incite giving and taking, as well as the motivation for hosts and guests, are examined. Thus, the project investigates a particular tourism offer that contributes to sustainable tourism by analyzing P2P resp. cyclist-to-cyclist, C2C) tourism. C2C tourism is characterized by special hospitality and generosity. To find out what motivations drive the hosts and which determinants drive the sharing cycling economy, an empirical study has been conducted globally through an online survey. The data was gathered through the WS community and comprised responses from more than 10,000 cyclists around the globe. Next to general information mostly comprising quantitative data on bicycle tourism (year/tour distance, duration and budget), qualitative information on traveling with WS as well as hosting was collected. The most important motivations for a traveler is to explore the local culture, to save money, and to make friends. The main reasons to host a guest are to promote the use of bicycles and to make friends, but also to give back and pay forward. WS members prefer to stay with/host cyclists. The results indicate that C2C tourists share homogenous characteristics and a similar philosophy, which is crucial for building mutual trust. Members of WS are generally extremely trustful. The study promotes an ecological form of tourism by combining sustainability, regionality, health, experience and the local communities' cultures. The empirical evidence found and analyzed, despite evident limitations, enabled us to shed light, especially on the issue of motivations and social capital, and on the functioning of ‘sharing’ platforms. Final research results are intended to promote C2C tourism around the globe to further replace conventional by sustainable tourism.

Keywords: bicycle tourism, homogeneity, reciprocity, sharing economy, trust

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