Search results for: defect prediction

Authors: Seun Mayowa Sunday

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Loan prediction is one of the most significant and recognised fields of research in the banking, insurance, and the financial security industries. Some prediction systems on the market include the construction of static software. However, due to the fact that static software only operates with strictly regulated rules, they cannot aid customers beyond these limitations. Application of many machine learning (ML) techniques are required for loan prediction. Four separate machine learning models, random forest (RF), decision tree (DT), k-nearest neighbour (KNN), and logistic regression, are used to create the loan prediction model. Using the anaconda navigator and the required machine learning (ML) libraries, models are created and evaluated using the appropriate measuring metrics. From the finding, the random forest performs with the highest accuracy of 80.17% which was later implemented into the Django framework. For real-time testing, the web application is deployed on the Alibabacloud which is among the top 4 biggest cloud computing provider. Hence, to the best of our knowledge, this research will serve as the first academic paper which combines the model development and the Django framework, with the deployment into the Alibaba cloud computing application.

Keywords: k-nearest neighbor, random forest, logistic regression, decision tree, django, cloud computing, alibaba cloud

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Authors: Kefale W. Yizengaw, Delele Worku Ayele, Jyh-Chiang Jiang

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The catalytic co-conversion of CO₂ and CH₄ to value-added compounds has become one of the promising approaches to addressing global climate change by having valuable fossil fuels. Thedirect co-conversion of CO₂ and CH₄ to value-added compounds is attractive but tremendously challenging because of both molecules' thermodynamic stability and kinetic inertness. In the present study, a single iridium atom doped and a single oxygen atom defect hematite (110)surface model catalyst, which can comprehend direct C–O coupling based on simultaneous activation of CO2 and CH4 was studied using density functional theory plus U (DFT + U)calculations. The presence of dual active sites on the Ir/Fe₂O₃(110)-OV surface catalyst enablesCO₂ activation on the Ir site and CH₄ activation at the defect site. The electron analysis for the theco-adsorption of CO₂ and CH₄ deals with the electron redistribution on the surface and clearly shows the synergistic effect for simultaneous CO₂ and CH₄ activation on Ir/α- Fe₂O₃(110)-OVsurface. The microkinetic analysis shows that the dissociation of CH4 to CH3 * and H* plays an excellent role in the C–O coupling. The coverage analysis for the intermediate products of the microkinetic simulation results indicates that C–O coupling is the reaction limiting step. Finally, after the CH₃O* intermediate product species is produced, the radical hydrogen species spontaneously diffuse to the CH3O* intermediate product to form methanol at around 490 [K]. The present work provides mechanistic and kinetic insights into the direct C–O coupling of CO₂and CH₄, which could help design more-efficient catalysts.

Keywords: co-conversion, C–O coupling, doping, oxygen vacancy, microkinetic

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Authors: Mayoorika Shukla, Pramila Jakhar, Tejendra Dixit, I. A. Palani, Vipul Singh

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Biosensors are analytical devices with wide range of applications in biological, chemical, environmental and clinical analysis. It comprises of bio-recognition layer which has biomolecules (enzymes, antibodies, DNA, etc.) immobilized over it for detection of analyte and transducer which converts the biological signal into the electrical signal. The performance of biosensor primarily the depends on the bio-recognition layer and therefore it has to be chosen wisely. In this regard, nanostructures of metal oxides such as ZnO, SnO2, V2O5, and TiO2, etc. have been explored extensively as bio-recognition layer. Recently, ZnO has the attracted attention of researchers due to its unique properties like high iso-electric point, biocompatibility, stability, high electron mobility and high electron binding energy, etc. Although there have been many reports on usage of ZnO as bio-recognition layer but to the authors’ knowledge, none has ever observed correlation between optical properties like defect suppression and biosensing capability of the sensor. Here, ZnO nanorods (ZNR) have been synthesized by a low cost, simple and low-temperature hydrothermal growth process, over Platinum (Pt) coated glass substrate. The ZNR have been synthesized in two steps viz. initially a seed layer was coated over substrate (Pt coated glass) followed by immersion of it into nutrient solution of Zinc nitrate and Hexamethylenetetramine (HMTA) with in situ addition of KMnO4. The addition of KMnO4 was observed to have a profound effect over the growth rate anisotropy of ZnO nanostructures. Clustered and powdery growth of ZnO was observed without addition of KMnO4, although by addition of it during the growth, uniform and crystalline ZNR were found to be grown over the substrate. Moreover, the same has resulted in suppression of defects as observed by Normalized Photoluminescence (PL) spectra since KMnO4 is a strong oxidizing agent which provides an oxygen rich growth environment. Further, to explore the correlation between defect suppression and biosensing capability of the ZNR Glucose oxidase (Gox) was immobilized over it, using physical adsorption technique followed by drop casting of nafion. Here the main objective of the work was to analyze effect of defect suppression over biosensing capability, and therefore Gox has been chosen as model enzyme, and electrochemical amperometric glucose detection was performed. The incorporation of KMnO4 during growth has resulted in variation of optical and charge transfer properties of ZNR which in turn were observed to have deep impact on biosensor figure of merits. The sensitivity of biosensor was found to increase by 12-18 times, due to variations introduced by addition of KMnO4 during growth. The amperometric detection of glucose in continuously stirred buffer solution was performed. Interestingly, defect suppression has been observed to contribute towards the improvement of biosensor performance. The detailed mechanism of growth of ZNR along with the overall influence of defect suppression on the sensing capabilities of the resulting enzymatic electrochemical biosensor and different figure of merits of the biosensor (Glass/Pt/ZNR/Gox/Nafion) will be discussed during the conference.

Keywords: biosensors, defects, KMnO4, ZnO nanorods

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Authors: Edwaldo R. B. Monteiro, Patricia D. M. Plentz, Edson R. De Pieri

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Mobile robotics is gaining an increasingly important role in modern society. Several potentially dangerous or laborious tasks for human are assigned to mobile robots, which are increasingly capable. Many of these tasks need to be performed within a specified period, i.e., meet a deadline. Missing the deadline can result in financial and/or material losses. Mechanisms for predicting the missing of deadlines are fundamental because corrective actions can be taken to avoid or minimize the losses resulting from missing the deadline. In this work we propose a simple but reliable deadline missing prediction mechanism for mobile robots through the use of historical data and we use the Pioneer 3-DX robot for experiments and simulations, one of the most popular robots in academia.

Keywords: deadline missing, historical data, mobile robots, prediction mechanism

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Authors: Chang Su Woo, Hyun Sung Park

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Useful lifetime evaluations of rail-pads were very important in design procedure to assure the safety and reliability. It is, therefore, necessary to establish a suitable criterion for the replacement period of rail pads. In this study, we performed properties and accelerated heat aging tests of rail pads considering degradation factors and all environmental conditions including operation, and then derived a lifetime prediction equation according to changes in hardness, thickness, and static spring constants in the Arrhenius plot to establish how to estimate the aging of rail pads. With the useful lifetime prediction equation, the lifetime of e-clip pads was 2.5 years when the change in hardness was 10% at 25°C; and that of f-clip pads was 1.7 years. When the change in thickness was 10%, the lifetime of e-clip pads and f-clip pads is 2.6 years respectively. The results obtained in this study to estimate the useful lifetime of rail pads for high speed trains can be used for determining the maintenance and replacement schedule for rail pads.

Keywords: rail pads, accelerated test, Arrhenius plot, useful lifetime prediction, mechanical engineering design

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Authors: H. A. Mansour

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The objective of this research work is studying the water use prediction, prediction technology for water use by action agencies, and others involved in conservation, planning, and environmental assessment of the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) simulation model. Models the important physical, processes governing erosion in Egypt (climate, infiltration, runoff, ET, detachment by raindrops, detachment by flowing water, deposition, etc.). Simulation of the non-uniform slope, soils, cropping/management., and Egyptian databases for climate, soils, and crops. The study included important parameters in Egyptian conditions as follows: Water Balance & Percolation, Soil Component (Tillage impacts), Plant Growth & Residue Decomposition, Overland Flow Hydraulics. It could be concluded that we can adapt the WEPP simulation model to determining the previous important parameters under Egyptian conditions.

Keywords: WEPP, adaptation, soil properties, tillage impacts, water balance, soil percolation

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Authors: Joseph C. Chen, Venkata Mohan Kudapa

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Development of two real-time surface roughness (Ra) prediction systems for milling operations was attempted. The systems used not only cutting parameters, such as feed rate and spindle speed, but also the cutting current generated and corrected by a clamp type energy sensor. Two different approaches were developed. First, a fuzzy inference system (FIS), in which the fuzzy logic rules are generated by experts in the milling processes, was used to conduct prediction modeling using current cutting data. Second, a neuro-fuzzy system (ANFIS) was explored. Neuro-fuzzy systems are adaptive techniques in which data are collected on the network, processed, and rules are generated by the system. The inference system then uses these rules to predict Ra as the output. Experimental results showed that the parameters of spindle speed, feed rate, depth of cut, and input current variation could predict Ra. These two systems enable the prediction of Ra during the milling operation with an average of 91.83% and 94.48% accuracy by FIS and ANFIS systems, respectively. Statistically, the ANFIS system provided better prediction accuracy than that of the FIS system.

Keywords: surface roughness, input current, fuzzy logic, neuro-fuzzy, milling operations

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Authors: Vuk M. Popovic, Dunja D. Popovic

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Software maintenance phase is started once a software project has been developed and delivered. After that, any modification to it corresponds to maintenance. Software maintenance involves modifications to keep a software project usable in a changed or a changing environment, to correct discovered faults, and modifications, and to improve performance or maintainability. Software maintenance and management of software maintenance are recognized as two most important and most expensive processes in a life of a software product. This research is basing the prediction of maintenance, on risks and time evaluation, and using them as data sets for working with neural networks. The aim of this paper is to provide support to project maintenance managers. They will be able to pass the issues planned for the next software-service-patch to the experts, for risk and working time evaluation, and afterward to put all data to neural networks in order to get software maintenance prediction. This process will lead to the more accurate prediction of the working hours needed for the software-service-patch, which will eventually lead to better planning of budget for the software maintenance projects.

Keywords: laboratory information system, maintenance engineering, neural networks, software maintenance, software maintenance costs

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Authors: Jeff Clarine, Chang-Shyh Peng, Daisy Sang

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Bioassay is the measurement of the potency of a chemical substance by its effect on a living animal or plant tissue. Bioassay data and chemical structures from pharmacokinetic and drug metabolism screening are mined from and housed in multiple databases. Bioassay prediction is calculated accordingly to determine further advancement. This paper proposes a four-step preprocessing of datasets for improving the bioassay predictions. The first step is instance selection in which dataset is categorized into training, testing, and validation sets. The second step is discretization that partitions the data in consideration of accuracy vs. precision. The third step is normalization where data are normalized between 0 and 1 for subsequent machine learning processing. The fourth step is feature selection where key chemical properties and attributes are generated. The streamlined results are then analyzed for the prediction of effectiveness by various machine learning algorithms including Pipeline Pilot, R, Weka, and Excel. Experiments and evaluations reveal the effectiveness of various combination of preprocessing steps and machine learning algorithms in more consistent and accurate prediction.

Keywords: bioassay, machine learning, preprocessing, virtual screen

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Authors: Anne-Lena Kampen, Øivind Kure

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Machine learning (ML) can be implemented in Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) as a central solution or distributed solution where the ML is embedded in the nodes. Embedding improves privacy and may reduce prediction delay. In addition, the number of transmissions is reduced. However, quality factors such as prediction accuracy, fault detection efficiency and coordinated control of the overall system suffer. Here, we discuss and highlight the trade-offs that should be considered when choosing between embedding and centralized ML, especially for multihop networks. In addition, we present estimations that demonstrate the energy trade-offs between embedded and centralized ML. Although the total network energy consumption is lower with central prediction, it makes the network more prone for partitioning due to the high forwarding load on the one-hop nodes. Moreover, the continuous improvements in the number of operations per joule for embedded devices will move the energy balance toward embedded prediction.

Keywords: central machine learning, embedded machine learning, energy consumption, local machine learning, wireless sensor networks, WSN

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Authors: Mansoureh Naderipour, Susan Bastani, Mohammad Fazel Zarandi

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Predicting links that may occur in the future and missing links in social networks is an attractive problem in social network analysis. Granular computing can help us to model the relationships between human-based system and social sciences in this field. In this paper, we present a model based on granular computing approach and Type-2 fuzzy logic to predict links regarding nodes’ activity and the relationship between two nodes. Our model is tested on collaboration networks. It is found that the accuracy of prediction is significantly higher than the Type-1 fuzzy and crisp approach.

Keywords: social network, link prediction, granular computing, type-2 fuzzy sets

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Authors: İsmail Kavdır, M. Burak Büyükcan, Ferhat Kurtulmuş

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Table olive is a valuable product especially in Mediterranean countries. It is usually consumed after some fermentation process. Defects happened naturally or as a result of an impact while olives are still fresh may become more distinct after processing period. Defected olives are not desired both in table olive and olive oil industries as it will affect the final product quality and reduce market prices considerably. Therefore it is critical to sort table olives before processing or even after processing according to their quality and surface defects. However, doing manual sorting has many drawbacks such as high expenses, subjectivity, tediousness and inconsistency. Quality criterions for green olives were accepted as color and free of mechanical defects, wrinkling, surface blemishes and rotting. In this study, it was aimed to classify fresh table olives using different classifiers and NIR spectroscopy readings and also to compare the classifiers. For this purpose, green (Ayvalik variety) olives were classified based on their surface feature properties such as defect-free, with bruised defect and with fly defect using FT-NIR spectroscopy and classification algorithms such as artificial neural networks, ident and cluster. Bruker multi-purpose analyzer (MPA) FT-NIR spectrometer (Bruker Optik, GmbH, Ettlingen Germany) was used for spectral measurements. The spectrometer was equipped with InGaAs detectors (TE-InGaAs internal for reflectance and RT-InGaAs external for transmittance) and a 20-watt high intensity tungsten–halogen NIR light source. Reflectance measurements were performed with a fiber optic probe (type IN 261) which covered the wavelengths between 780–2500 nm, while transmittance measurements were performed between 800 and 1725 nm. Thirty-two scans were acquired for each reflectance spectrum in about 15.32 s while 128 scans were obtained for transmittance in about 62 s. Resolution was 8 cm⁻¹ for both spectral measurement modes. Instrument control was done using OPUS software (Bruker Optik, GmbH, Ettlingen Germany). Classification applications were performed using three classifiers; Backpropagation Neural Networks, ident and cluster classification algorithms. For these classification applications, Neural Network tool box in Matlab, ident and cluster modules in OPUS software were used. Classifications were performed considering different scenarios; two quality conditions at once (good vs bruised, good vs fly defect) and three quality conditions at once (good, bruised and fly defect). Two spectrometer readings were used in classification applications; reflectance and transmittance. Classification results obtained using artificial neural networks algorithm in discriminating good olives from bruised olives, from olives with fly defect and from the olive group including both bruised and fly defected olives with success rates respectively changing between 97 and 99%, 61 and 94% and between 58.67 and 92%. On the other hand, classification results obtained for discriminating good olives from bruised ones and also for discriminating good olives from fly defected olives using the ident method ranged between 75-97.5% and 32.5-57.5%, respectfully; results obtained for the same classification applications using the cluster method ranged between 52.5-97.5% and between 22.5-57.5%.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, statistical classifiers, NIR spectroscopy, reflectance, transmittance

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Authors: Gunasekaran Raja, Rajakumar Arul, Kottilingam Kottursamy, Ramkumar Jayaraman, Sathya Pavithra, Swaminathan Venkatraman

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Wireless Interoperability for Microwave Access (WiMAX) utilizes the IEEE 802.1X mechanism for authentication. However, this mechanism incurs considerable delay during handoffs. This delay during handoffs results in service disruption which becomes a severe bottleneck. To overcome this delay, our article proposes a key caching mechanism based on user path prediction. If the user mobility follows that path, the user bypasses the normal IEEE 802.1X mechanism and establishes the necessary authentication keys directly. Through analytical and simulation modeling, we have proved that our mechanism effectively decreases the handoff delay thereby achieving fast authentication.

Keywords: authentication, authorization, and accounting (AAA), handoff, mobile, user path prediction (UPP) and user pattern

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Authors: Esmaeil Biazar

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A nanofibrous PHBV nerve conduit has been used to evaluate its efficiency based on the promotion of nerve regeneration in rats. The designed conduits were investigated by physical, mechanical and microscopic analyses. The conduits were implanted into a 30-mm gap in the sciatic nerves of the rats. Four months after surgery, the regenerated nerves were evaluated by macroscopic assessments and histology. This polymeric conduit had sufficiently high mechanical properties to serve as a nerve guide. The results demonstrated that in the nanofibrous graft with cells, the sciatic nerve trunk had been reconstructed with restoration of nerve continuity and formatted nerve fibers with myelination. For the grafts especially the nanofibrous conduits with cells, muscle cells of gastrocnemius on the operated side were uniform in their size and structures. This study proves the feasibility of artificial conduit with Schwann cells for nerve regeneration by bridging a longer defect in a rat model.

Keywords: sciatic regeneration, Schwann cell, artificial conduit, nanofibrous PHBV, histological assessments

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Authors: Bryce R. Jolley, Michael Uchic

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This study presents initial results toward the correlative characterization of inherent defects of Ti-6Al-4V additive manufacture (AM). X-Ray Computed Tomography (CT) defect data are compared and correlated with microscopic photographs obtained via automated serial sectioning. The metal AM specimen was manufactured out of Ti-6Al-4V virgin powder to specified dimensions. A post-contour was applied during the fabrication process with a speed of 1050 mm/s, power of 260 W, and a width of 140 µm. The specimen was stress relief heat-treated at 16°F for 3 hours. Microfocus CT imaging was accomplished on the specimen within a predetermined region of the build. Microfocus CT imaging was conducted with parameters optimized for Ti-6Al-4V additive manufacture. After CT imaging, a modified RoboMet. 3D version 2 was employed for serial sectioning and optical microscopy characterization of the same predetermined region. Automated montage capture with sub-micron resolution, bright-field reflection, 12-bit monochrome optical images were performed in an automated fashion. These optical images were post-processed to produce 2D and 3D data sets. This processing included thresholding and segmentation to improve visualization of defect features. The defects observed from optical imaging were compared and correlated with the defects observed from CT imaging over the same predetermined region of the specimen. Quantitative results of area fraction and equivalent pore diameters obtained via each method are presented for this correlation. It is shown that Microfocus CT imaging does not capture all inherent defects within this Ti-6Al-4V AM sample. Best practices for this correlative effort are also presented as well as the future direction of research resultant from this current study.

Keywords: additive manufacture, automated serial sectioning, computed tomography, nondestructive evaluation

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Authors: Kiyoumars Roushangar, Saeid Sadaghian

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Although accurate sediment load prediction is very important in planning, designing, operating and maintenance of water resources structures, the transport mechanism is complex, and the deterministic transport models are based on simplifying assumptions often lead to large prediction errors. In this research, firstly, two intelligent ANN methods, Radial Basis and General Regression Neural Networks, are adopted to model of total sediment load transport into Madani Dam reservoir (north of Iran) using the measured data and then applicability of the sediment transport methods developed by Engelund and Hansen, Ackers and White, Yang, and Toffaleti for predicting of sediment load discharge are evaluated. Based on comparison of the results, it is found that the GRNN model gives better estimates than the sediment rating curve and mentioned classic methods.

Keywords: sediment transport, dam reservoir, RBF, GRNN, prediction

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Authors: Matt Stichter

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Moral development requires learning from one’s failures, but that turnsout to be especially challenging when dealing with moral failures. The distress prompted by moral failure can cause responses ofdefensiveness or disengagement rather than attempts to make amends and work on self-change. The most potentially distressing response to moral failure is a shame. However, there appears to be two different senses of “shame” that are conflated in the literature, depending on whether the failure is appraised as the result of a global and unalterable self-defect, or a local and alterable self-defect. One of these forms of shame does prompt self-improvement in response to moral failure. This occurs if one views the failure as indicating only a specific (local) defect in one’s identity, where that’s something repairable, rather than asanoverall(orglobal)defectinyouridentity that can’t be fixed. So, if the whole of one’s identity as a morally good person isn’t being called into question, but only a part, then that is something one could work on to improve. Shame, in this sense, provides motivation for self-improvement to fix this part oftheselfinthe long run, and this would be important for moral development. One factor that looks to affect these different self-attributions in the wake of moral failure can be found in mindset theory, as reactions to moral failure in these two forms of shame are similar to how those with a fixed or growth mindset of their own abilities, such as intelligence, react to failure. People fall along a continuum with respect to how they view abilities – it is more of a fixed entity that you cannot do much to change, or it is malleable such that you can train to improve it. These two mindsets, ‘fixed’ versus ‘growth’, have different consequences for how we react to failure – a fixed mindset leads to maladaptive responses because of feelings of helplessness to do better; whereas a growth mindset leads to adaptive responses where a person puts forth effort to learn how to act better the next time. Here we can see the parallels between a fixed mindset of one’s own (im)morality, as the way people respond to shame when viewed as indicating a global and unalterable self-defect parallels the reactions people have to failure when they have a fixed mindset. In addition, it looks like there may be a similar structure to pride. Pride is, like shame, a self-conscious emotion that arises from internal attributions about the self as being the cause of some event. There are also paradoxical results from research on pride, where pride was found to motivate pro-social behavior in some cases but aggression in other cases. Research suggests that there may be two forms of pride, authentic and hubristic, that are also connected to different self-attributions, depending on whether one is feeling proud about a particular (local) aspect of the self versus feeling proud about the whole of oneself (global).

Keywords: emotion, mindset, moral development, moral psychology, pride, shame, self-regulation

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Authors: Alexandre Barbosa de Almeida, Telma Woerle de Lima Soares

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Protein structure prediction is a challenging task in the bioinformatics field. The biological function of all proteins majorly relies on the shape of their three-dimensional conformational structure, but less than 1% of all known proteins in the world have their structure solved. This work proposes a deep learning model to address this problem, attempting to predict some aspects of the protein conformations. Throughout a process of multiobjective dominance, a recurrent neural network was trained to abstract the particular bias of each individual multiobjective algorithm, generating a heuristic that could be useful to predict some of the relevant aspects of the three-dimensional conformation process formation, known as protein folding.

Keywords: Ab initio heuristic modeling, multiobjective optimization, protein structure prediction, recurrent neural network

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Authors: Danladi Ali, Abdullahi Mukaila

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In this work, GSM signal strength (power) was monitored in an indoor environment. Samples of the GSM signal strength was measured on mobile equipment (ME). One-dimensional multilevel wavelet is used to predict the fading phenomenon of the GSM signal measured and neural network clustering to determine the average power received in the study area. The wavelet prediction revealed that the GSM signal is attenuated due to the fast fading phenomenon which fades about 7 times faster than the radio wavelength while the neural network clustering determined that -75dBm appeared more frequently followed by -85dBm. The work revealed that significant part of the signal measured is dominated by weak signal and the signal followed more of Rayleigh than Gaussian distribution. This confirmed the wavelet prediction.

Keywords: decomposition, clustering, propagation, model, wavelet, signal strength and spectral efficiency

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Authors: Ciro Cursio, Giulia Cursio, Pio Luigi Cursio, Luigi Cursio

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Communication between practitioner and patient is of the utmost importance in aesthetic medicine: as of today, images of previous treatments are the most common tool used by doctors to describe and anticipate future results for their patients. However, using photos of other people often reduces the engagement of the prospective patient and is further limited by the number and quality of pictures available to the practitioner. Pre-existing work solves this issue in two ways: 3D scanning of the area with manual editing of the 3D model by the doctor or automatic prediction of the treatment by warping the image with hand-written parameters. The first approach requires the manual intervention of the doctor, while the second approach always generates results that aren’t always realistic. Thus, in one case, there is significant manual work required by the doctor, and in the other case, the prediction looks artificial. We propose an AI-based algorithm that autonomously generates a realistic prediction of treatment results. For the purpose of this study, we focus on hyaluronic acid treatments in the facial area. Our approach takes into account the individual characteristics of each face, and furthermore, the prediction system allows the patient to decide which area of the face she wants to modify. We show that the predictions generated by our system are realistic: first, the quality of the generated images is on par with real images; second, the prediction matches the actual results obtained after the treatment is completed. In conclusion, the proposed approach provides a valid tool for doctors to show patients what they will look like before deciding on the treatment.

Keywords: prediction, hyaluronic acid, treatment, artificial intelligence

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Authors: Etienne Alain Feukeu, L. W. Snyman

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Water scarcity is becoming a real issue nowadays. Most countries in the world are facing it in their own way based on their own geographical coordinate and condition. Many countries are facing a challenge of a growing water demand as a result of not only an increased population, economic growth, but also as a pressure of the population dynamic and urbanization. In view to mitigate some of this related problem, an accurate method of water estimation and future prediction, forecast is essential to guarantee not only the sufficient quantity, but also a good water distribution and management system. Beside the fact that several works have been undertaken to address this concern, there is still a considerable disparity between different methods and standard used for water prediction and estimation. Hence this work contrast and compare two well-defined and established methods from two countries (USA and South Africa) to demonstrate the inconsistency when different method and standards are used interchangeably.

Keywords: water scarcity, water estimation, water prediction, water forecast.

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Authors: Francis Mark A. Fernandez, Chelca Ubay, Armithan Suguitan

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Regions or provinces in a definite state certainly contribute to the economy of their mainland. These regions or provinces are the ones supplying the mainland with different resources and assets. Thus, with a certain region separating from the mainland would indeed impinge the heart of an entire state to develop and expand. With these, the researchers decided to study on the effects of the separation of one’s region to its mainland and the consequences that will take place if the mainland would rule out the region to separate from them. The researchers wrote this paper to present the causes of the separation of Catalonia from Spain and the prediction regarding the pursuance of this region to revolt from its mainland, Spain. In conducting this research, the researchers utilized two analyses, namely: qualitative and quantitative. In qualitative, numerous of information regarding the existing experiences of the citizens of Catalonia were gathered by the authors to give certainty to the prediction of the researchers. Besides this undertaking, the researchers will also gather needed information and figures through books, journals and the published news and reports. In addition, to further support this prediction under qualitative analysis, the researchers intended to operate the Phenomenological research in which the examiners will exemplify the lived experiences of each citizen in Catalonia. Moreover, the researchers will utilize one of the types of Phenomenological research which is hermeneutical phenomenology by Van Manen. In quantitative analysis, the researchers utilized the regression analysis in which it will ascertain the causality in an underlying theory in understanding the relationship of the variables. The researchers assigned and identified different variables, wherein the dependent variable or the y which represents the prediction of the researchers, the independent variable however or the x represents the arising problems that grounds the partition of the region, the summation of the independent variable or the ∑x represents the sum of the problem and finally the summation of the dependent variable or the ∑y is the result of the prediction. With these variables, using the regression analysis, the researchers will be able to show the connections and how a single variable could affect the other variables. From these approaches, the prediction of the researchers will be specified. This research could help different states dealing with this kind of problem. It will further help certain states undergoing this problem by analyzing the causes of these insurgencies and the effects on it if it will obstruct its region to consign their full-pledge autonomy.

Keywords: autonomy, liberty, prediction, separation

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Authors: D. Mohammadzadeh S., J. Bolouri Bazaz

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This paper presents a new prediction model for compression index of fine-grained soils using multi-gene genetic programming (MGGP) technique. The proposed model relates the soil compression index to its liquid limit, plastic limit and void ratio. Several laboratory test results for fine-grained were used to develop the models. Various criteria were considered to check the validity of the model. The parametric and sensitivity analyses were performed and discussed. The MGGP method was found to be very effective for predicting the soil compression index. A comparative study was further performed to prove the superiority of the MGGP model to the existing soft computing and traditional empirical equations.

Keywords: new prediction model, compression index soil, multi-gene genetic programming, MGGP

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Authors: Nilubon Kurubanjerdjit, Nattakarn Iam-On, Ka-Lok Ng

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MicroRNAs are small non-coding RNA found in many different species. They play crucial roles in cancer such as biological processes of apoptosis and proliferation. The identification of microRNA-target genes can be an essential first step towards to reveal the role of microRNA in various cancer types. In this paper, we predict miRNA-target genes for lung cancer by integrating prediction scores from miRanda and PITA algorithms used as a feature vector of miRNA-target interaction. Then, machine-learning algorithms were implemented for making a final prediction. The approach developed in this study should be of value for future studies into understanding the role of miRNAs in molecular mechanisms enabling lung cancer formation.

Keywords: microRNA, miRNAs, lung cancer, machine learning, Naïve Bayes, SVM

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Authors: Dong Wu, Michael Grenn

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Managing software projects effectively is crucial for meeting deadlines, ensuring quality, and managing resources well. Traditional methods often struggle with predicting project timelines accurately due to uncertain schedules and complex data. This study addresses these challenges by combining time prediction algorithms with Large Language Models (LLMs). It makes use of real-world software project data to construct and validate a model. The model takes detailed project progress data such as task completion dynamic, team Interaction and development metrics as its input and outputs predictions of project timelines. To evaluate the effectiveness of this model, a comprehensive methodology is employed, involving simulations and practical applications in a variety of real-world software project scenarios. This multifaceted evaluation strategy is designed to validate the model's significant role in enhancing forecast accuracy and elevating overall management efficiency, particularly in complex software project environments. The results indicate that the integration of time prediction algorithms with LLMs has the potential to optimize software project progress management. These quantitative results suggest the effectiveness of the method in practical applications. In conclusion, this study demonstrates that integrating time prediction algorithms with LLMs can significantly improve the predictive accuracy and efficiency of software project management. This offers an advanced project management tool for the industry, with the potential to improve operational efficiency, optimize resource allocation, and ensure timely project completion.

Keywords: software project management, time prediction algorithms, large language models (LLMS), forecast accuracy, project progress prediction

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Authors: O. P. Oladipo, O. A. Falode

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The determination of Recovery Factor is of great importance to the reservoir engineer since it relates reserves to the initial oil in place. Reserves are the producible portion of reservoirs and give an indication of the profitability of a field Development. The core objective of this project is to develop an artificial neural network model using selected reservoir data to predict Recovery Factors (RF) of hydrocarbon reservoirs and compare the model with a couple of the existing correlations. The type of Artificial Neural Network model developed was the Single Layer Feed Forward Network. MATLAB was used as the network simulator and the network was trained using the supervised learning method, Afterwards, the network was tested with input data never seen by the network. The results of the predicted values of the recovery factors of the Artificial Neural Network Model, API Correlation for water drive reservoirs (Sands and Sandstones) and Guthrie and Greenberger Correlation Equation were obtained and compared. It was noted that the coefficient of correlation of the Artificial Neural Network Model was higher than the coefficient of correlations of the other two correlation equations, thus making it a more accurate prediction tool. The Artificial Neural Network, because of its accurate prediction ability is helpful in the correct prediction of hydrocarbon reservoir factors. Artificial Neural Network could be applied in the prediction of other Petroleum Engineering parameters because it is able to recognise complex patterns of data set and establish a relationship between them.

Keywords: recovery factor, reservoir, reserves, artificial neural network, hydrocarbon, MATLAB, API, Guthrie, Greenberger

Procedia PDF Downloads 406

Authors: Xiaogang Li, Jieqiong Miao

Abstract:

As for the problem of the grey forecasting model prediction accuracy is low, an improved grey prediction model is put forward. Firstly, use trigonometric function transform the original data sequence in order to improve the smoothness of data , this model called SGM( smoothness of grey prediction model), then combine the improved grey model with support vector machine , and put forward the grey support vector machine model (SGM - SVM).Before the establishment of the model, we use trigonometric functions and accumulation generation operation preprocessing data in order to enhance the smoothness of the data and weaken the randomness of the data, then use support vector machine (SVM) to establish a prediction model for pre-processed data and select model parameters using genetic algorithms to obtain the optimum value of the global search. Finally, restore data through the "regressive generate" operation to get forecasting data. In order to prove that the SGM-SVM model is superior to other models, we select the battery life data from calce. The presented model is used to predict life of battery and the predicted result was compared with that of grey model and support vector machines．For a more intuitive comparison of the three models, this paper presents root mean square error of this three different models .The results show that the effect of grey support vector machine (SGM-SVM) to predict life is optimal, and the root mean square error is only 3.18%. Keywords: grey forecasting model, trigonometric function, support vector machine, genetic algorithms, root mean square error

Keywords: Grey prediction model, trigonometric functions, support vector machines, genetic algorithms, root mean square error

Procedia PDF Downloads 427

Authors: Yenni Kurniawati

Abstract:

Students Prediction Skill in chemistry experiments is an important skill for pre-service chemistry students to stimulate students reflective thinking at each stage of many chemistry experiments, qualitatively and quantitatively. A Virtual Chemistry Laboratory was designed to give students opportunities and times to practicing many kinds of chemistry experiments repeatedly, everywhere and anytime, before they do a real experiment. The Virtual Chemistry Laboratory content was constructed using the Model of Educational Reconstruction and developed to enhance students ability to predicted the experiment results and analyzed the cause of error, calculating the accuracy and precision with carefully in using chemicals. This research showed students changing in making a decision and extremely beware with accuracy, but still had a low concern in precision. It enhancing students level of reflective thinking skill related to their prediction skill 1 until 2 stage in average. Most of them could predict the characteristics of the product in experiment, and even the result will going to be an error. In addition, they take experiments more seriously and curiously about the experiment results. This study recommends for a different subject matter to provide more opportunities for students to learn about other kinds of chemistry experiments design.

Keywords: virtual chemistry laboratory, chemistry experiments, prediction skill, pre-lab experiences

Procedia PDF Downloads 306

Authors: Mina Jafari, Kobra Hamraee, Saied Hossein Hosseini

Abstract:

The prediction of breast cancer disease is one of the challenges in medicine. In this paper we collected 528 records of women’s information who live in Kabul including demographic, life style, diet and pregnancy data. There are many classification algorithm in breast cancer prediction and tried to find the best model with most accurate result and lowest error rate. We evaluated some other common supervised algorithms in data mining to find the best model in prediction of breast cancer disease among afghan women living in Kabul regarding to momography result as target variable. For evaluating these algorithms we used Cross Validation which is an assured method for measuring the performance of models. After comparing error rate and accuracy of three models: Decision Tree, Naive Bays and Rule Induction, Decision Tree with accuracy of 94.06% and error rate of %15 is found the best model to predicting breast cancer disease based on the health care records.

Keywords: decision tree, breast cancer, probability, data mining

Procedia PDF Downloads 107

Authors: Jia-Shiun Chen, Quoc-Viet Huynh

Abstract:

This work develops a flexible-body dynamic model of an all-terrain vehicle (ATV), capable of recovering dynamic stresses while the ATV travels on random bumpy roads. The fatigue life of components is forecasted as well. While considering the interaction between dynamic forces and structure deformation, the proposed model achieves a highly accurate structure stress prediction and fatigue life prediction. During the simulation, stress time history of the ATV structure is retrieved for life prediction. Finally, the hot sports of the ATV frame are located, and the frame life for combined road conditions is forecasted, i.e. 25833.6 hr. If the usage of vehicle is eight hours daily, the total vehicle frame life is 8.847 years. Moreover, the reaction force and deformation due to the dynamic motion can be described more accurately by using flexible body dynamics than by using rigid-body dynamics. Based on recommendations made in the product design stage before mass production, the proposed model can significantly lower development and testing costs.

Keywords: flexible-body dynamics, veicle, dynamics, fatigue, durability

Procedia PDF Downloads 364