Commenced in January 2007
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Edition: International
Paper Count: 14365

Search results for: Grey prediction model

14365 Life Prediction Method of Lithium-Ion Battery Based on Grey Support Vector Machines

Authors: Xiaogang Li, Jieqiong Miao


As for the problem of the grey forecasting model prediction accuracy is low, an improved grey prediction model is put forward. Firstly, use trigonometric function transform the original data sequence in order to improve the smoothness of data , this model called SGM( smoothness of grey prediction model), then combine the improved grey model with support vector machine , and put forward the grey support vector machine model (SGM - SVM).Before the establishment of the model, we use trigonometric functions and accumulation generation operation preprocessing data in order to enhance the smoothness of the data and weaken the randomness of the data, then use support vector machine (SVM) to establish a prediction model for pre-processed data and select model parameters using genetic algorithms to obtain the optimum value of the global search. Finally, restore data through the "regressive generate" operation to get forecasting data. In order to prove that the SGM-SVM model is superior to other models, we select the battery life data from calce. The presented model is used to predict life of battery and the predicted result was compared with that of grey model and support vector machines.For a more intuitive comparison of the three models, this paper presents root mean square error of this three different models .The results show that the effect of grey support vector machine (SGM-SVM) to predict life is optimal, and the root mean square error is only 3.18%. Keywords: grey forecasting model, trigonometric function, support vector machine, genetic algorithms, root mean square error

Keywords: Grey prediction model, trigonometric functions, support vector machines, genetic algorithms, root mean square error

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14364 Grey Wolf Optimization Technique for Predictive Analysis of Products in E-Commerce: An Adaptive Approach

Authors: Shital Suresh Borse, Vijayalaxmi Kadroli


E-commerce industries nowadays implement the latest AI, ML Techniques to improve their own performance and prediction accuracy. This helps to gain a huge profit from the online market. Ant Colony Optimization, Genetic algorithm, Particle Swarm Optimization, Neural Network & GWO help many e-commerce industries for up-gradation of their predictive performance. These algorithms are providing optimum results in various applications, such as stock price prediction, prediction of drug-target interaction & user ratings of similar products in e-commerce sites, etc. In this study, customer reviews will play an important role in prediction analysis. People showing much interest in buying a lot of services& products suggested by other customers. This ultimately increases net profit. In this work, a convolution neural network (CNN) is proposed which further is useful to optimize the prediction accuracy of an e-commerce website. This method shows that CNN is used to optimize hyperparameters of GWO algorithm using an appropriate coding scheme. Accurate model results are verified by comparing them to PSO results whose hyperparameters have been optimized by CNN in Amazon's customer review dataset. Here, experimental outcome proves that this proposed system using the GWO algorithm achieves superior execution in terms of accuracy, precision, recovery, etc. in prediction analysis compared to the existing systems.

Keywords: prediction analysis, e-commerce, machine learning, grey wolf optimization, particle swarm optimization, CNN

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14363 Automatic Flood Prediction Using Rainfall Runoff Model in Moravian-Silesian Region

Authors: B. Sir, M. Podhoranyi, S. Kuchar, T. Kocyan


Rainfall-runoff models play important role in hydrological predictions. However, the model is only one part of the process for creation of flood prediction. The aim of this paper is to show the process of successful prediction for flood event (May 15–May 18 2014). The prediction was performed by rainfall runoff model HEC–HMS, one of the models computed within Floreon+ system. The paper briefly evaluates the results of automatic hydrologic prediction on the river Olše catchment and its gages Český Těšín and Věřňovice.

Keywords: flood, HEC-HMS, prediction, rainfall, runoff

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14362 A New Model for Production Forecasting in ERP

Authors: S. F. Wong, W. I. Ho, B. Lin, Q. Huang


ERP has been used in many enterprises for management, the accuracy of the production forecasting module is vital to the decision making of the enterprise, and the profit is affected directly. Therefore, enhancing the accuracy of the production forecasting module can also increase the efficiency and profitability. To deal with a lot of data, a suitable, reliable and accurate statistics model is necessary. LSSVM and Grey System are two main models to be studied in this paper, and a case study is used to demonstrate how the combination model is effective to the result of forecasting.

Keywords: ERP, grey system, LSSVM, production forecasting

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14361 Diesel Fault Prediction Based on Optimized Gray Neural Network

Authors: Han Bing, Yin Zhenjie


In order to analyze the status of a diesel engine, as well as conduct fault prediction, a new prediction model based on a gray system is proposed in this paper, which takes advantage of the neural network and the genetic algorithm. The proposed GBPGA prediction model builds on the GM (1.5) model and uses a neural network, which is optimized by a genetic algorithm to construct the error compensator. We verify our proposed model on the diesel faulty simulation data and the experimental results show that GBPGA has the potential to employ fault prediction on diesel.

Keywords: fault prediction, neural network, GM(1, 5) genetic algorithm, GBPGA

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14360 Analysis on Prediction Models of TBM Performance and Selection of Optimal Input Parameters

Authors: Hang Lo Lee, Ki Il Song, Hee Hwan Ryu


An accurate prediction of TBM(Tunnel Boring Machine) performance is very difficult for reliable estimation of the construction period and cost in preconstruction stage. For this purpose, the aim of this study is to analyze the evaluation process of various prediction models published since 2000 for TBM performance, and to select the optimal input parameters for the prediction model. A classification system of TBM performance prediction model and applied methodology are proposed in this research. Input and output parameters applied for prediction models are also represented. Based on these results, a statistical analysis is performed using the collected data from shield TBM tunnel in South Korea. By performing a simple regression and residual analysis utilizinFg statistical program, R, the optimal input parameters are selected. These results are expected to be used for development of prediction model of TBM performance.

Keywords: TBM performance prediction model, classification system, simple regression analysis, residual analysis, optimal input parameters

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14359 Multistage Data Envelopment Analysis Model for Malmquist Productivity Index Using Grey's System Theory to Evaluate Performance of Electric Power Supply Chain in Iran

Authors: Mesbaholdin Salami, Farzad Movahedi Sobhani, Mohammad Sadegh Ghazizadeh


Evaluation of organizational performance is among the most important measures that help organizations and entities continuously improve their efficiency. Organizations can use the existing data and results from the comparison of units under investigation to obtain an estimation of their performance. The Malmquist Productivity Index (MPI) is an important index in the evaluation of overall productivity, which considers technological developments and technical efficiency at the same time. This article proposed a model based on the multistage MPI, considering limited data (Grey’s theory). This model can evaluate the performance of units using limited and uncertain data in a multistage process. It was applied by the electricity market manager to Iran’s electric power supply chain (EPSC), which contains uncertain data, to evaluate the performance of its actors. Results from solving the model showed an improvement in the accuracy of future performance of the units under investigation, using the Grey’s system theory. This model can be used in all case studies, in which MPI is used and there are limited or uncertain data.

Keywords: Malmquist Index, Grey's Theory, CCR Model, network data envelopment analysis, Iran electricity power chain

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14358 An Improved Prediction Model of Ozone Concentration Time Series Based on Chaotic Approach

Authors: Nor Zila Abd Hamid, Mohd Salmi M. Noorani


This study is focused on the development of prediction models of the Ozone concentration time series. Prediction model is built based on chaotic approach. Firstly, the chaotic nature of the time series is detected by means of phase space plot and the Cao method. Then, the prediction model is built and the local linear approximation method is used for the forecasting purposes. Traditional prediction of autoregressive linear model is also built. Moreover, an improvement in local linear approximation method is also performed. Prediction models are applied to the hourly ozone time series observed at the benchmark station in Malaysia. Comparison of all models through the calculation of mean absolute error, root mean squared error and correlation coefficient shows that the one with improved prediction method is the best. Thus, chaotic approach is a good approach to be used to develop a prediction model for the Ozone concentration time series.

Keywords: chaotic approach, phase space, Cao method, local linear approximation method

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14357 Influence Analysis of Macroeconomic Parameters on Real Estate Price Variation in Taipei, Taiwan

Authors: Li Li, Kai-Hsuan Chu


It is well known that the real estate price depends on a lot of factors. Each house current value is dependent on the location, room number, transportation, living convenience, year and surrounding environments. Although, there are different experienced models for housing agent to estimate the price, it is a case by case study without overall dynamic variation investigation. However, many economic parameters may more or less influence the real estate price variation. Here, the influences of most macroeconomic parameters on real estate price are investigated individually based on least-square scheme and grey correlation strategy. Then those parameters are classified into leading indices, simultaneous indices and laggard indices. In addition, the leading time period is evaluated based on least square method. The important leading and simultaneous indices can be used to establish an artificial intelligent neural network model for real estate price variation prediction. The real estate price variation of Taipei, Taiwan during 2005 ~ 2017 are chosen for this research data analysis and validation. The results show that the proposed method has reasonable prediction function for real estate business reference.

Keywords: real estate price, least-square, grey correlation, macroeconomics

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14356 Prediction on Housing Price Based on Deep Learning

Authors: Li Yu, Chenlu Jiao, Hongrun Xin, Yan Wang, Kaiyang Wang


In order to study the impact of various factors on the housing price, we propose to build different prediction models based on deep learning to determine the existing data of the real estate in order to more accurately predict the housing price or its changing trend in the future. Considering that the factors which affect the housing price vary widely, the proposed prediction models include two categories. The first one is based on multiple characteristic factors of the real estate. We built Convolution Neural Network (CNN) prediction model and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network prediction model based on deep learning, and logical regression model was implemented to make a comparison between these three models. Another prediction model is time series model. Based on deep learning, we proposed an LSTM-1 model purely regard to time series, then implementing and comparing the LSTM model and the Auto-Regressive and Moving Average (ARMA) model. In this paper, comprehensive study of the second-hand housing price in Beijing has been conducted from three aspects: crawling and analyzing, housing price predicting, and the result comparing. Ultimately the best model program was produced, which is of great significance to evaluation and prediction of the housing price in the real estate industry.

Keywords: deep learning, convolutional neural network, LSTM, housing prediction

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14355 The Network Relative Model Accuracy (NeRMA) Score: A Method to Quantify the Accuracy of Prediction Models in a Concurrent External Validation

Authors: Carl van Walraven, Meltem Tuna


Background: Network meta-analysis (NMA) quantifies the relative efficacy of 3 or more interventions from studies containing a subgroup of interventions. This study applied the analytical approach of NMA to quantify the relative accuracy of prediction models with distinct inclusion criteria that are evaluated on a common population (‘concurrent external validation’). Methods: We simulated binary events in 5000 patients using a known risk function. We biased the risk function and modified its precision by pre-specified amounts to create 15 prediction models with varying accuracy and distinct patient applicability. Prediction model accuracy was measured using the Scaled Brier Score (SBS). Overall prediction model accuracy was measured using fixed-effects methods that accounted for model applicability patterns. Prediction model accuracy was summarized as the Network Relative Model Accuracy (NeRMA) Score which ranges from -∞ through 0 (accuracy of random guessing) to 1 (accuracy of most accurate model in concurrent external validation). Results: The unbiased prediction model had the highest SBS. The NeRMA score correctly ranked all simulated prediction models by the extent of bias from the known risk function. A SAS macro and R-function was created to implement the NeRMA Score. Conclusions: The NeRMA Score makes it possible to quantify the accuracy of binomial prediction models having distinct inclusion criteria in a concurrent external validation.

Keywords: prediction model accuracy, scaled brier score, fixed effects methods, concurrent external validation

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14354 Analyzing the Results of Buildings Energy Audit by Using Grey Set Theory

Authors: Tooraj Karimi, Mohammadreza Sadeghi Moghadam


Grey set theory has the advantage of using fewer data to analyze many factors, and it is therefore more appropriate for system study rather than traditional statistical regression which require massive data, normal distribution in the data and few variant factors. So, in this paper grey clustering and entropy of coefficient vector of grey evaluations are used to analyze energy consumption in buildings of the Oil Ministry in Tehran. In fact, this article intends to analyze the results of energy audit reports and defines most favorable characteristics of system, which is energy consumption of buildings, and most favorable factors affecting these characteristics in order to modify and improve them. According to the results of the model, ‘the real Building Load Coefficient’ has been selected as the most important system characteristic and ‘uncontrolled area of the building’ has been diagnosed as the most favorable factor which has the greatest effect on energy consumption of building. Grey clustering in this study has been used for two purposes: First, all the variables of building relate to energy audit cluster in two main groups of indicators and the number of variables is reduced. Second, grey clustering with variable weights has been used to classify all buildings in three categories named ‘no standard deviation’, ‘low standard deviation’ and ‘non- standard’. Entropy of coefficient vector of Grey evaluations is calculated to investigate greyness of results. It shows that among the 38 buildings surveyed in terms of energy consumption, 3 cases are in standard group, 24 cases are in ‘low standard deviation’ group and 11 buildings are completely non-standard. In addition, clustering greyness of 13 buildings is less than 0.5 and average uncertainly of clustering results is 66%.

Keywords: energy audit, grey set theory, grey incidence matrixes, grey clustering, Iran oil ministry

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14353 Study on the Model Predicting Post-Construction Settlement of Soft Ground

Authors: Pingshan Chen, Zhiliang Dong


In order to estimate the post-construction settlement more objectively, the power-polynomial model is proposed, which can reflect the trend of settlement development based on the observed settlement data. It was demonstrated by an actual case history of an embankment, and during the prediction. Compared with the other three prediction models, the power-polynomial model can estimate the post-construction settlement more accurately with more simple calculation.

Keywords: prediction, model, post-construction settlement, soft ground

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14352 A Prediction Model of Adopting IPTV

Authors: Jeonghwan Jeon


With the advent of IPTV in the fierce competition with existing broadcasting system, it is emerged as an important issue to predict how much the adoption of IPTV service will be. This paper aims to suggest a prediction model for adopting IPTV using classification and Ranking Belief Simplex (CaRBS). A simplex plot method of representing data allows a clear visual representation to the degree of interaction of the support from the variables to the prediction of the objects. CaRBS is applied to the survey data on the IPTV adoption.

Keywords: prediction, adoption, IPTV, CaRBS

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14351 Stock Market Prediction by Regression Model with Social Moods

Authors: Masahiro Ohmura, Koh Kakusho, Takeshi Okadome


This paper presents a regression model with autocorrelated errors in which the inputs are social moods obtained by analyzing the adjectives in Twitter posts using a document topic model. The regression model predicts Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) more precisely than autoregressive moving-average models.

Keywords: stock market prediction, social moods, regression model, DJIA

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14350 Study on Optimal Control Strategy of PM2.5 in Wuhan, China

Authors: Qiuling Xie, Shanliang Zhu, Zongdi Sun


In this paper, we analyzed the correlation relationship among PM2.5 from other five Air Quality Indices (AQIs) based on the grey relational degree, and built a multivariate nonlinear regression equation model of PM2.5 and the five monitoring indexes. For the optimal control problem of PM2.5, we took the partial large Cauchy distribution of membership equation as satisfaction function. We established a nonlinear programming model with the goal of maximum performance to price ratio. And the optimal control scheme is given.

Keywords: grey relational degree, multiple linear regression, membership function, nonlinear programming

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14349 A New Prediction Model for Soil Compression Index

Authors: D. Mohammadzadeh S., J. Bolouri Bazaz


This paper presents a new prediction model for compression index of fine-grained soils using multi-gene genetic programming (MGGP) technique. The proposed model relates the soil compression index to its liquid limit, plastic limit and void ratio. Several laboratory test results for fine-grained were used to develop the models. Various criteria were considered to check the validity of the model. The parametric and sensitivity analyses were performed and discussed. The MGGP method was found to be very effective for predicting the soil compression index. A comparative study was further performed to prove the superiority of the MGGP model to the existing soft computing and traditional empirical equations.

Keywords: new prediction model, compression index soil, multi-gene genetic programming, MGGP

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14348 Multi-Response Optimization of CNC Milling Parameters Using Taguchi Based Grey Relational Analysis for AA6061 T6 Aluminium Alloy

Authors: Varsha Singh, Kishan Fuse


This paper presents a study of the grey-Taguchi method to optimize CNC milling parameters of AA6061 T6 aluminium alloy. Grey-Taguchi method combines Taguchi method based design of experiments (DOE) with grey relational analysis (GRA). Multi-response optimization of different quality characteristics as surface roughness, material removal rate, cutting forces is done using grey relational analysis (GRA). The milling parameters considered for experiments include cutting speed, feed per tooth, and depth of cut. Each parameter with three levels is selected. A grey relational grade is used to estimate overall quality characteristics performance. The Taguchi’s L9 orthogonal array is used for design of experiments. MINITAB 17 software is used for optimization. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) is used to identify most influencing parameter. The experimental results show that grey relational analysis is effective method for optimizing multi-response characteristics. Optimum results are finally validated by performing confirmation test.

Keywords: ANOVA, CNC milling, grey relational analysis, multi-response optimization

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14347 Calibration Model of %Titratable Acidity (Citric Acid) for Intact Tomato by Transmittance SW-NIR Spectroscopy

Authors: K. Petcharaporn, S. Kumchoo


The acidity (citric acid) is one of the chemical contents that can refer to the internal quality and the maturity index of tomato. The titratable acidity (%TA) can be predicted by a non-destructive method prediction by using the transmittance short wavelength (SW-NIR). Spectroscopy in the wavelength range between 665-955 nm. The set of 167 tomato samples divided into groups of 117 tomatoes sample for training set and 50 tomatoes sample for test set were used to establish the calibration model to predict and measure %TA by partial least squares regression (PLSR) technique. The spectra were pretreated with MSC pretreatment and it gave the optimal result for calibration model as (R = 0.92, RMSEC = 0.03%) and this model obtained high accuracy result to use for %TA prediction in test set as (R = 0.81, RMSEP = 0.05%). From the result of prediction in test set shown that the transmittance SW-NIR spectroscopy technique can be used for a non-destructive method for %TA prediction of tomatoes.

Keywords: tomato, quality, prediction, transmittance, titratable acidity, citric acid

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14346 Developing and Evaluating Clinical Risk Prediction Models for Coronary Artery Bypass Graft Surgery

Authors: Mohammadreza Mohebbi, Masoumeh Sanagou


The ability to predict clinical outcomes is of great importance to physicians and clinicians. A number of different methods have been used in an effort to accurately predict these outcomes. These methods include the development of scoring systems based on multivariate statistical modelling, and models involving the use of classification and regression trees. The process usually consists of two consecutive phases, namely model development and external validation. The model development phase consists of building a multivariate model and evaluating its predictive performance by examining calibration and discrimination, and internal validation. External validation tests the predictive performance of a model by assessing its calibration and discrimination in different but plausibly related patients. A motivate example focuses on prediction modeling using a sample of patients undergone coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) has been used for illustrative purpose and a set of primary considerations for evaluating prediction model studies using specific quality indicators as criteria to help stakeholders evaluate the quality of a prediction model study has been proposed.

Keywords: clinical prediction models, clinical decision rule, prognosis, external validation, model calibration, biostatistics

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14345 Urban Growth Prediction Using Artificial Neural Networks in Athens, Greece

Authors: Dimitrios Triantakonstantis, Demetris Stathakis


Urban areas have been expanded throughout the globe. Monitoring and modeling urban growth have become a necessity for a sustainable urban planning and decision making. Urban prediction models are important tools for analyzing the causes and consequences of urban land use dynamics. The objective of this research paper is to analyze and model the urban change, which has been occurred from 1990 to 2000 using CORINE land cover maps. The model was developed using drivers of urban changes (such as road distance, slope, etc.) under an Artificial Neural Network modeling approach. Validation was achieved using a prediction map for 2006 which was compared with a real map of Urban Atlas of 2006. The accuracy produced a Kappa index of agreement of 0,639 and a value of Cramer's V of 0,648. These encouraging results indicate the importance of the developed urban growth prediction model which using a set of available common biophysical drivers could serve as a management tool for the assessment of urban change.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, CORINE, urban atlas, urban growth prediction

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14344 A Prediction Method for Large-Size Event Occurrences in the Sandpile Model

Authors: S. Channgam, A. Sae-Tang, T. Termsaithong


In this research, the occurrences of large size events in various system sizes of the Bak-Tang-Wiesenfeld sandpile model are considered. The system sizes (square lattice) of model considered here are 25×25, 50×50, 75×75 and 100×100. The cross-correlation between the ratio of sites containing 3 grain time series and the large size event time series for these 4 system sizes are also analyzed. Moreover, a prediction method of the large-size event for the 50×50 system size is also introduced. Lastly, it can be shown that this prediction method provides a slightly higher efficiency than random predictions.

Keywords: Bak-Tang-Wiesenfeld sandpile model, cross-correlation, avalanches, prediction method

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14343 Remaining Useful Life (RUL) Assessment Using Progressive Bearing Degradation Data and ANN Model

Authors: Amit R. Bhende, G. K. Awari


Remaining useful life (RUL) prediction is one of key technologies to realize prognostics and health management that is being widely applied in many industrial systems to ensure high system availability over their life cycles. The present work proposes a data-driven method of RUL prediction based on multiple health state assessment for rolling element bearings. Bearing degradation data at three different conditions from run to failure is used. A RUL prediction model is separately built in each condition. Feed forward back propagation neural network models are developed for prediction modeling.

Keywords: bearing degradation data, remaining useful life (RUL), back propagation, prognosis

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14342 Development of Imprinting and Replica Molding of Soft Mold Curved Surface

Authors: Yung-Jin Weng, Chia-Chi Chang, Chun-Yu Tsai


This paper is focused on the research of imprinting and replica molding of quasi-grey scale soft mold curved surface microstructure mold. In this paper, a magnetic photocuring forming system is first developed and built independently, then the magnetic curved surface microstructure soft mode is created; moreover, the magnetic performance of the magnetic curved surface at different heights is tested and recorded, and through experimentation and simulation, the magnetic curved surface microstructure soft mold is used in the research of quasi-grey scale soft mold curved surface microstructure imprinting and replica molding. The experimental results show that, under different surface curvatures and voltage control conditions, different quasi-grey scale array microstructures take shape. In addition, this paper conducts research on the imprinting and replica molding of photoresist composite magnetic powder in order to discuss the forming performance of magnetic photoresist, and finally, the experimental result is compared with the simulation to obtain more accurate prediction and results. This research is predicted to provide microstructure component preparation technology with heterogeneity and controllability, and is a kind of valid shaping quasi-grey scale microstructure manufacturing technology method.

Keywords: soft mold, magnetic, microstructure, curved surface

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14341 Performance Evaluation of Arrival Time Prediction Models

Authors: Bin Li, Mei Liu


Arrival time information is a crucial component of advanced public transport system (APTS). The advertisement of arrival time at stops can help reduce the waiting time and anxiety of passengers, and improve the quality of service. In this research, an experiment was conducted to compare the performance on prediction accuracy and precision between the link-based and the path-based historical travel time based model with the automatic vehicle location (AVL) data collected from an actual bus route. The research results show that the path-based model is superior to the link-based model, and achieves the best improvement on peak hours.

Keywords: bus transit, arrival time prediction, link-based, path-based

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14340 ARIMA-GARCH, A Statistical Modeling for Epileptic Seizure Prediction

Authors: Salman Mohamadi, Seyed Mohammad Ali Tayaranian Hosseini, Hamidreza Amindavar


In this paper, we provide a procedure to analyze and model EEG (electroencephalogram) signal as a time series using ARIMA-GARCH to predict an epileptic attack. The heteroskedasticity of EEG signal is examined through the ARCH or GARCH, (Autore- gressive conditional heteroskedasticity, Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity) test. The best ARIMA-GARCH model in AIC sense is utilized to measure the volatility of the EEG from epileptic canine subjects, to forecast the future values of EEG. ARIMA-only model can perform prediction, but the ARCH or GARCH model acting on the residuals of ARIMA attains a con- siderable improved forecast horizon. First, we estimate the best ARIMA model, then different orders of ARCH and GARCH modelings are surveyed to determine the best heteroskedastic model of the residuals of the mentioned ARIMA. Using the simulated conditional variance of selected ARCH or GARCH model, we suggest the procedure to predict the oncoming seizures. The results indicate that GARCH modeling determines the dynamic changes of variance well before the onset of seizure. It can be inferred that the prediction capability comes from the ability of the combined ARIMA-GARCH modeling to cover the heteroskedastic nature of EEG signal changes.

Keywords: epileptic seizure prediction , ARIMA, ARCH and GARCH modeling, heteroskedasticity, EEG

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14339 A Type-2 Fuzzy Model for Link Prediction in Social Network

Authors: Mansoureh Naderipour, Susan Bastani, Mohammad Fazel Zarandi


Predicting links that may occur in the future and missing links in social networks is an attractive problem in social network analysis. Granular computing can help us to model the relationships between human-based system and social sciences in this field. In this paper, we present a model based on granular computing approach and Type-2 fuzzy logic to predict links regarding nodes’ activity and the relationship between two nodes. Our model is tested on collaboration networks. It is found that the accuracy of prediction is significantly higher than the Type-1 fuzzy and crisp approach.

Keywords: social network, link prediction, granular computing, type-2 fuzzy sets

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14338 On Improving Breast Cancer Prediction Using GRNN-CP

Authors: Kefaya Qaddoum


The aim of this study is to predict breast cancer and to construct a supportive model that will stimulate a more reliable prediction as a factor that is fundamental for public health. In this study, we utilize general regression neural networks (GRNN) to replace the normal predictions with prediction periods to achieve a reasonable percentage of confidence. The mechanism employed here utilises a machine learning system called conformal prediction (CP), in order to assign consistent confidence measures to predictions, which are combined with GRNN. We apply the resulting algorithm to the problem of breast cancer diagnosis. The results show that the prediction constructed by this method is reasonable and could be useful in practice.

Keywords: neural network, conformal prediction, cancer classification, regression

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14337 Hybrid Fuzzy Weighted K-Nearest Neighbor to Predict Hospital Readmission for Diabetic Patients

Authors: Soha A. Bahanshal, Byung G. Kim


Identification of patients at high risk for hospital readmission is of crucial importance for quality health care and cost reduction. Predicting hospital readmissions among diabetic patients has been of great interest to many researchers and health decision makers. We build a prediction model to predict hospital readmission for diabetic patients within 30 days of discharge. The core of the prediction model is a modified k Nearest Neighbor called Hybrid Fuzzy Weighted k Nearest Neighbor algorithm. The prediction is performed on a patient dataset which consists of more than 70,000 patients with 50 attributes. We applied data preprocessing using different techniques in order to handle data imbalance and to fuzzify the data to suit the prediction algorithm. The model so far achieved classification accuracy of 80% compared to other models that only use k Nearest Neighbor.

Keywords: machine learning, prediction, classification, hybrid fuzzy weighted k-nearest neighbor, diabetic hospital readmission

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14336 Soccer Match Result Prediction System (SMRPS) Model

Authors: Ajayi Olusola Olajide, Alonge Olaide Moses


Predicting the outcome of soccer matches poses an interesting challenge for which it is realistically impossible to successfully do so for every match. Despite this, there are lots of resources that are being expended on the correct prediction of soccer matches weekly, and all over the world. Soccer Match Result Prediction System Model (SMRPSM) is a system that is proposed whereby the results of matches between two soccer teams are auto-generated, with the added excitement of giving users a chance to test their predictive abilities. Soccer teams from different league football are loaded by the application, with each team’s corresponding manager and other information like team location, team logo and nickname. The user is also allowed to interact with the system by selecting the match to be predicted and viewing of the results of completed matches after registering/logging in.

Keywords: predicting, soccer match, outcome, soccer, matches, result prediction, system, model

Procedia PDF Downloads 387