Search results for: decreasing impatience

Authors: Roberta Martino, Viviana Ventre

Abstract:

Every day we face choices whose consequences are deferred in time. These types of choices are the intertemporal choices and play an important role in the social, economic, and financial world. The Discounted Utility Model is the mathematical model of reference to calculate the utility of intertemporal prospects. The discount rate is the main element of the model as it describes how the individual perceives the indeterminacy of subsequent periods. Empirical evidence has shown a discrepancy between the behavior expected from the predictions of the model and the effective choices made from the decision makers. In particular, the term temporal inconsistency indicates those choices that do not remain optimal with the passage of time. This phenomenon has been described with hyperbolic models of the discount rate which, unlike the linear or exponential nature assumed by the discounted utility model, is not constant over time. This paper explores the problem of inconsistency by tracing the decision-making process through the concept of impatience. The degree of impatience and the degree of decrease of impatience are two parameters that allow to quantify the weight of emotional factors and cognitive limitations during the evaluation and selection of alternatives. In fact, although the theory assumes perfectly rational decision makers, behavioral finance and cognitive psychology have made it possible to understand that distortions in the decision-making process and emotional influence have an inevitable impact on the decision-making process. The degree to which impatience is diminished is the focus of the first part of the study. By comparing consistent and inconsistent preferences over time, it was possible to verify that some anomalies in the discounted utility model are a result of the combination of cognitive bias and emotional factors. In particular: the delay effect and the interval effect are compared through the concept of misperception of time; starting from psychological considerations, a criterion is proposed to identify the causes of the magnitude effect that considers the differences in outcomes rather than their ratio; the sign effect is analyzed by integrating in the evaluation of prospects with negative outcomes the psychological aspects of loss aversion provided by Prospect Theory. An experiment implemented confirms three findings: the greatest variation in the degree of decrease in impatience corresponds to shorter intervals close to the present; the greatest variation in the degree of impatience occurs for outcomes of lower magnitude; the variation in the degree of impatience is greatest for negative outcomes. The experimental phase was implemented with the construction of the hyperbolic factor through the administration of questionnaires constructed for each anomaly. This work formalizes the underlying causes of the discrepancy between the discounted utility model and the empirical evidence of preference reversal.

Keywords: decreasing impatience, discount utility model, hyperbolic discount, hyperbolic factor, impatience

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Authors: Roberta Martino, Viviana Ventre

Abstract:

Empirical evidence has, over time, confirmed that the behavior of individuals is inconsistent with the descriptions provided by the Discounted Utility Model, an essential reference for calculating the utility of intertemporal prospects. The model assumes that individuals calculate the utility of intertemporal prospectuses by adding up the values of all outcomes obtained by multiplying the cardinal utility of the outcome by the discount function estimated at the time the outcome is received. The trend of the discount function is crucial for the preferences of the decision maker because it represents the perception of the future, and its trend causes temporally consistent or temporally inconsistent preferences. In particular, because different formulations of the discount function lead to various conclusions in predicting choice, the descriptive ability of models with a hyperbolic trend is greater than linear or exponential models. Suboptimal choices from any time point of view are the consequence of this mechanism, the psychological factors of which are encapsulated in the discount rate trend. In addition, analyzing the decision-making process from a psychological perspective, there is an equivalence between the selection of dominated prospects and a degree of impatience that decreases over time. The first part of the paper describes and investigates the anomalies of the discounted utility model by relating the cognitive distortions of the decision-maker to the emotional factors that are generated during the evaluation and selection of alternatives. Specifically, by studying the degree to which impatience decreases, it’s possible to quantify how the psychological and emotional mechanisms of the decision-maker result in a lack of decision persistence. In addition, this description presents inconsistency as the consequence of an inconsistent attitude towards time-delayed choices. The second part of the paper presents an experimental phase in which we show the relationship between inconsistency and impatience in different contexts. Analysis of the degree to which impatience decreases confirms the influence of the decision maker's emotional impulses for each anomaly in the utility model discussed in the first part of the paper. This work provides an application in the field of personalized behavioral finance. Indeed, the numerous behavioral diversities, evident even in the degrees of decrease in impatience in the experimental phase, support the idea that optimal strategies may not satisfy individuals in the same way. With the aim of homogenizing the categories of investors and to provide a personalized approach to advice, the results proven in the experimental phase are used in a complementary way with the information in the field of behavioral finance to implement the Analytical Hierarchy Process model in intertemporal choices, useful for strategic personalization. In the construction of the Analytic Hierarchy Process, the degree of decrease in impatience is understood as reflecting irrationality in decision-making and is therefore used for the construction of weights between anomalies and behavioral traits.

Keywords: analytic hierarchy process, behavioral finance, financial anomalies, impatience, time inconsistency

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Authors: Roberta Martino, Viviana Ventre

Abstract:

The Discounted Utility Model is the essential reference for calculating the utility of intertemporal prospects. According to this model, the value assigned to an outcome is the smaller the greater the distance between the moment in which the choice is made and the instant in which the outcome is perceived. This diminution determines the intertemporal preferences of the individual, the psychological significance of which is encapsulated in the discount rate. The classic model provides a discount rate of linear or exponential nature, necessary for temporally consistent preferences. Empirical evidence, however, has proven that individuals apply discount rates with a hyperbolic nature generating the phenomenon of intemporal inconsistency. What this means is that individuals have difficulty managing their money and future. Behavioral finance, which analyzes the investor's attitude through cognitive psychology, has made it possible to understand that beyond individual financial competence, there are factors that condition choices because they alter the decision-making process: behavioral bias. Since such cognitive biases are inevitable, to improve the quality of choices, research has focused on a personalized approach to strategies that combines behavioral finance with personality theory. From the considerations, it emerges the need to find a procedure to construct the personalized strategies that consider the personal characteristics of the client, such as age or gender, and his personality. The work is developed in three parts. The first part discusses and investigates the weight of the degree of impatience and impatience decrease in the anomalies of the discounted utility model. Specifically, the degree of decrease in impatience quantifies the impact that emotional factors generated by haste and financial market agitation have on decision making. The second part considers the relationship between decision making and personality theory. Specifically, four behavioral categories associated with four categories of behavioral investors are considered. This association allows us to interpret intertemporal choice as a combination of bias and temperament. The third part of the paper presents a method for constructing personalized strategies using Analytic Hierarchy Process. Briefly: the first level of the analytic hierarchy process considers the goal of the strategic plan; the second level considers the four temperaments; the third level compares the temperaments with the anomalies of the discounted utility model; and the fourth level contains the different possible alternatives to be selected. The weights of the hierarchy between level 2 and level 3 are constructed considering the degrees of decrease in impatience derived for each temperament with an experimental phase. The results obtained confirm the relationship between temperaments and anomalies through the degree of decrease in impatience and highlight that the actual impact of emotions in decision making. Moreover, it proposes an original and useful way to improve financial advice. Inclusion of additional levels in the Analytic Hierarchy Process can further improve strategic personalization.

Keywords: analytic hierarchy process, behavioral finance anomalies, intertemporal choice, personalized strategies

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Authors: Roberta Martino, Viviana Ventre

Abstract:

Intertemporal choices are choices under conditions of uncertainty in which the consequences are distributed over time. The Discounted Utility Model is the essential reference for describing the individual in the context of intertemporal choice. The model is based on the idea that the individual selects the alternative with the highest utility, which is calculated by multiplying the cardinal utility of the outcome, as if the reception were instantaneous, by the discount function that determines a decrease in the utility value according to how the actual reception of the outcome is far away from the moment the choice is made. Initially, the discount function was assumed to have an exponential trend, whose decrease over time is constant, in line with a profile of a rational investor described by classical economics. Instead, empirical evidence called for the formulation of alternative, hyperbolic models that better represented the actual actions of the investor. Attitudes that do not comply with the principles of classical rationality are termed anomalous, i.e., difficult to rationalize and describe through normative models. The development of behavioral finance, which describes investor behavior through cognitive psychology, has shown that deviations from rationality are due to the limited rationality condition of human beings. What this means is that when a choice is made in a very difficult and information-rich environment, the brain does a compromise job between the cognitive effort required and the selection of an alternative. Moreover, the evaluation and selection phase of the alternative, the collection and processing of information, are dynamics conditioned by systematic distortions of the decision-making process that are the behavioral biases involving the individual's emotional and cognitive system. In this paper we present an original decomposition of the discount function to investigate the psychological principles of hyperbolic discounting. It is possible to decompose the curve into two components: the first component is responsible for the smaller decrease in the outcome as time increases and is related to the individual's impatience; the second component relates to the change in the direction of the tangent vector to the curve and indicates how much the individual perceives the indeterminacy of the future indicating his or her aversion to uncertainty. This decomposition allows interesting conclusions to be drawn with respect to the concept of impatience and the emotional drives involved in decision-making. The contribution that neuroscience can make to decision theory and inter-temporal choice theory is vast as it would allow the description of the decision-making process as the relationship between the individual's emotional and cognitive factors. Neurofinance is a discipline that uses a multidisciplinary approach to investigate how the brain influences decision-making. Indeed, considering that the decision-making process is linked to the activity of the prefrontal cortex and amygdala, neurofinance can help determine the extent to which abnormal attitudes respect the principles of rationality.

Keywords: impatience, intertemporal choice, neurofinance, rationality, uncertainty

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Authors: Umair Rashid

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Normally softmax loss is used as the supervision signal in face recognition (FR) system, and it boosts the separability of features. In the last two years, a number of techniques have been proposed by reformulating the original softmax loss to enhance the discriminating power of Deep Convolutional Neural Networks (DCNNs) for FR system. To learn angularly discriminative features Cosine-Margin based softmax has been adjusted as monotonically decreasing angular function, that is the main challenge for angular based softmax. On that issue, we propose monotonically decreasing element for Cosine-Margin based softmax and also, we discussed the effect of different monotonically decreasing parameters on angular Margin softmax for FR system. We train the model on publicly available dataset CASIA- WebFace via our proposed monotonically decreasing parameters for cosine function and the tests on YouTube Faces (YTF, Labeled Face in the Wild (LFW), VGGFace1 and VGGFace2 attain the state-of-the-art performance.

Keywords: deep convolutional neural networks, cosine margin face recognition, softmax loss, monotonically decreasing parameter

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Authors: Roberta Martino, Viviana Ventre

Abstract:

From a theoretical point of view, the relationship between the risk associated with an investment and the expected value are directly proportional, in the sense that the market allows a greater result to those who are willing to take a greater risk. However, empirical evidence proves that this relationship is distorted in the minds of investors and is perceived exactly the opposite. To deepen and understand the discrepancy between the actual actions of the investor and the theoretical predictions, this paper analyzes the essential parameters used for the valuation of financial assets with greater attention to two elements: probability and the passage of time. Although these may seem at first glance to be two distinct elements, they are closely related. In particular, the error in the theoretical description of the relationship between risk and return lies in the failure to consider the impatience that is generated in the decision-maker when events that have not yet happened occur in the decision-making context. In this context, probability loses its objective meaning and in relation to the psychological aspects of the investor, it can only be understood as the degree of confidence that the investor has in the occurrence or non-occurrence of an event. Moreover, the concept of objective probability does not consider the inter-temporality that characterizes financial activities and does not consider the condition of limited cognitive capacity of the decision maker. Cognitive psychology has made it possible to understand that the mind acts with a compromise between quality and effort when faced with very complex choices. To evaluate an event that has not yet happened, it is necessary to imagine that it happens in your head. This projection into the future requires a cognitive effort and is what differentiates choices under conditions of risk and choices under conditions of uncertainty. In fact, since the receipt of the outcome in choices under risk conditions is imminent, the mechanism of self-projection into the future is not necessary to imagine the consequence of the choice and the decision makers dwell on the objective analysis of possibilities. Financial activities, on the other hand, develop over time and the objective probability is too static to consider the anticipatory emotions that the self-projection mechanism generates in the investor. Assuming that uncertainty is inherent in valuations of events that have not yet occurred, the focus must shift from risk management to uncertainty management. Only in this way the intertemporal dimension of the decision-making environment and the haste generated by the financial market can be cautioned and considered. The work considers an extension of the prospectus theory with the temporal component with the aim of providing a description of the attitude towards risk with respect to the passage of time.

Keywords: impatience, risk aversion, subjective probability, uncertainty

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Authors: Pavel Boška, Jan Bomba, Tomáš Beránek, Jiří Procházka

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When using wood products bonded by polyvinyl acetate, glues such as windows are the most limiting element of degradation of the glued joint due to weather changes. In addition to moisture and high temperatures, the joint may damage the low temperature below freezing point, where dimensional changes in the material and distortion of the adhesive film occur. During the experiments, the joints were exposed to several degrees of sub-zero temperatures from 0 °C to -40 °C and then to compare how the decreasing temperature affects the strength of the joint. The experiment was performed on wood beech samples (Fagus sylvatica), bonded with PVAc with D3 resistance and the shear strength of bond was measured. The glued and treated samples were tested on a laboratory testing machine, recording the strength of the joint. The statistical results have given us information that the strength of the joint gradually decreases with decreasing temperature, but a noticeable and statistically significant change is achieved only at very low temperatures.

Keywords: adhesives, bond strength, low temperatures, polyvinyl acetate

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Authors: Yuta Tachibana, Ayuko Itsuki

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The three strains of bacteria (Lysinibacillus xylanilyticus, Bacillus kochii, and Enterococcus sp.) were isolated from the fermented Indigo (Polygonum tinctorium) dyeing solution using the dilution plate method and some fermentation conditions were determined. High-Performance Liquid Chromatography (HPLC) was used to determine the indigo concentration. When the isolated bacteria were cultured in the indigo liquid culture containing various sugars, starch, and ethanol, the indigo culture solutions containing galactose, mannose, ribose, and ethanol were remarkably decreased. Comparison of decreasing indigo between three strains showed that Enterococcus sp. had the fastest growth and decrease of indigo. However, decreasing indigo per unit micro biomass did not correspond to the results of decreasing indigo―Bacillus kochii had higher indigo-reducing activity than Enterococcus sp. and Lysinibacillus xylanilyticus.

Keywords: fermentation condition, high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC), indigo dyeing solution, indigo-reducing activity

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Authors: Mehdi Ghatus

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Two simple apparatus based on the hammer and anvil principle have been constructed and used to study the microstructure and micro-hardness characteristics of some AL-base alloys. Foils with thicknesses arranging from 20 µm up to 600 µm have been obtained. The cooling rate was estimated to be in the range 10^4 - 10^5 K/sec. Microstructure study of rapidly quenched Al-30% Si foils indicated that with decreasing the foil thickness the size of primary Si crystallites decreases in the whole investigated range (0.64-0.15 mm). However, the volume fraction of the primary Si crystals in the structure remained constant down to thickness the primary Si volume fraction started to decrease. Rapid quenching of Al- 14-16% Cu showed single phase cell structure. In foils up to 0.55 mm with decreasing the foil thickness the cell size decreases and micro-hardness increases particularly in foils below 0.3 mm in thickness. Isochronal annealing of theses foils show that the highly supersaturated Al-14-16% Cu solid solution decomposes readily at relatively low temperature and short time intervals. The maximum hardness is obtained after annealing at 100 °C for 30 minutes. However with decreasing the Cu content of the foils the precipitation process is largely delayed. Eight hours of annealing at 100 °C was not enough to achieve the maximum hardness in Al-4% Cu thin foils. The achieved hardness value was more than twice of the maximum hardness obtained in articles of similar composition but conventionally aged.

Keywords: aluminum, hardness, alloys, quenched aluminum

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Authors: Afshin Veisi

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In this study, the physical properties of wood in poplar wood (Populous sp.) were analyzed in longitudinal and radial directions of the stem. Three Populous Alba tree were cut in chaloos zone and from each tree, 3 discs were selected at 130cm, half of tree and under of crown. The test samples from pith to bark (heartwood to sapwood) were prepared from these discs for measuring the involved properties such as, wet, dry and critical specific gravity, porosity, volume shrinkage and swelling based on the ASTM standard, and data in two radial and longitudinal directions in the trank were statistically analyzed. Such as, variations of wet, dry and critical specific gravity had in radial direction respectively: irregular increase, increase and increase, and in longitudinal direction respectively: irregular decrease, irregular increase and increase. Results of variations to moisture content and porosity show that in radial direction respectively: irregular increasing and decreasing, and in longitudinal direction from down to up respectively: irregular decreasing and stability. Volume shrinkage and swelling variations show in radial direction irregular and in longitudinal axial regular decreasing.

Keywords: poplar wood, physical properties, shrinkage, swelling, critical specific gravity, wet specific gravity, dry specific gravity

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Authors: Davendra S. Malik

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Bhimtal lake is located between 290 21’ N latitude and 790 24’ E longitude, at an elevation of 1332m above mean sea level in the Kumaun region of Uttarakhand of Indian subcontinent. The lake surface area is decreasing in water area, depth level in relation to ecological and biological characteristics due to climatic variations, invasive land use pattern, degraded forest zones and changed agriculture pattern in lake catchment basin. The present study is focused on long and short term effects of climate change on aquatic biodiversity and productivity of Bhimtal lake. The meteorological data of last fifteen years of Bhimtal lake catchment basin revealed that air temperature has been increased 1.5 to 2.1oC in summer, 0.2 to 0.8 C in winter, relative humidity increased 4 to 6% in summer and rainfall pattern changed erratically in rainy seasons. The surface water temperature of Bhimtal lake showed an increasing pattern as 0.8 to 2.6 C, pH value decreased 0.5 to 0.2 in winter and increased 0.4 to 0.6 in summer. Dissolved oxygen level in lake showed a decreasing trend as 0.7 to 0.4mg/l in winter months. The mesotrophic nature of Bhimtal lake is changing towards eutrophic conditions and contributed for decreasing biodiversity. The aquatic biodiversity of Bhimtal lake consisted mainly phytoplankton, zooplankton, benthos and fish species. In the present study, a total of 5 groups of phytoplankton, 3 groups of zooplankton, 11 groups of benthos and 15 fish species were recorded from Bhimtal lake. The comparative data of biodiversity of Bhimtal lake since January, 2000 indicated the changing pattern of phytoplankton biomass were decreasing as 1.99 and 1.08% of Chlorophyceae and Bacilleriophyceae families respectively. The biomass of Cynophyceae was increasing as 0.45% and contributing the algal blooms during summer season in lake. The biomass of zooplankton and benthos were found decreasing in winter season and increasing during summer season. The endemic fish species (18 no.) were found in year 2000-05, as while the fish species (15 no.) were recorded in present study. The relative fecundity of major fish species were observed decreasing trends during their breeding periods in lake. The natural and anthropogenic factors were identified as ecological threats for existing aquatic biodiversity of Bhimtal lake. The present research paper emphasized on the effect of changing pattern of different climatic variables on species composition, biomass of phytoplankton, zooplankton, benthos, and fishes in Bhimtal lake of Kumaun region. The present research data will be contributed significantly to assess the changing pattern of aquatic biodiversity and productivity of Bhimtal lake with different time scale.

Keywords: aquatic biodiversity, Bhimtal lake, climate change, lake ecology

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Authors: Gholam Hossein Javanmard, Roghayeh Mohammadi Garegozlo

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The present study was a randomized three-group double-blind clinical trial with repeated measures designs which aimed to determine the pure effect and combined effect of mindfulness based-relaxation (MBR) technique and Transcranial Electrical Simulation (tCES) on psychological distress decreasing of patients with type-2 diabetes. The sample of the study consisted of 30 patients with type-2 diabetes who were selected from the Diabetes Association of Bonab city in Iran. The participants were matched and then randomly assigned to the three groups of 10 subjects (MBR, CES, MBR+CES). The subjects received interventions related to their group in 10 individual sessions. Pre-test, post-test, and one-month follow-up were conducted using DASS-42. Analysis of variance with repeated measures showed a significant change in psychological distress. Multivariate covariance analysis and the paired interpersonal comparative test of Ben Foruni indicated that both interventions of MBR and CES have a similar effect on psychological distress decreasing in the post-test and follow-up phase. But, the combined therapy of MBR+CES was more efficient, and it had a more stable effect. However, all three interventions, especially combined intervention of MBR+CES, as efficient and stable treatment, are suggested for improving the psychological status of diabetic patients.

Keywords: mindfulness based-relaxation, transcranial electrical simulation, type 2 diabetes, psychological distress

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Authors: James Freeman, Andry Rakotonirainy

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Train pedestrian collisions are common and are the most likely to result in severe injuries and fatalities when compared to other types of rail crossing accidents. However, there is limited research that has focused on understanding the reasons why some pedestrians’ break level crossings rules, which limits the development of effective countermeasures. As a result, this study undertook a deeper exploration into the origins of risky pedestrian behaviour through structured interviews. A total of 40 pedestrians who admitted to either intentionally breaking crossing rules or making crossing errors participated in an in-depth telephone interview. Qualitative analysis was undertaken via thematic analysis that revealed participants were more likely to report deliberately breaking rules (rather than make errors), particular after the train had passed the crossing as compared to before it arrives. Predominant reasons for such behaviours were identified to be: calculated risk taking, impatience, poor knowledge of rules and low likelihood of detection. The findings have direct implications for the development of effective countermeasures to improve crossing safety (and managing risk) such as increasing surveillance and transit officer presence, as well as installing appropriate barriers that either deter or incapacitate pedestrians from violating crossing rules. This paper will further outline the study findings in regards to the development of countermeasures as well as provide direction for future research efforts in this area.

Keywords: crossings, mistakes, risk, violations

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Authors: Daphne Ashley Sze, Kenneth Santos, Ariane Gabrielle Lim

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As women are now given more freedom and choice to pursue employment, the world’s over-all fertility has been decreasing mainly due to the shift in time allocation between working and child rearing. As such, we study the case of the Philippines, where there exists a decreasing fertility rate and increasing openness for women labor participation. We focused on the distinction between fertility and fecundity, the former being the manifestation of the latter and aim to trace and compare the effects of both fecundity and fertility to women’s employment status through the estimation of the reproduction function and multinomial logistic function. Findings suggest that the perception of women regarding employment opportunities in the Philippines links the negative relationship observed between fertility, fecundity and women’s employment status. Today, there has been a convergence in the traditional family roles of men and women, as both genders now have identical employment opportunities that continue to shape their preferences.

Keywords: multinomial logistic function, tobit, fertility, women employment status, fecundity

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Authors: Ariane C. Lim, Daphne Ashley L. Sze, Kenneth S. Santos

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As women are now given more freedom and choice to pursue employment, the world’s over-all fertility has been decreasing mainly due to the shift in time allocation between working and child-rearing. As such, we study the case of the Philippines, where there exists a decreasing fertility rate and increasing openness for women labor participation. We focused on the distinction between fertility and fecundity, the former being the manifestation of the latter and aim to trace and compare the effects of both fecundity and fertility to women’s employment status through the estimation of the reproduction function and multinomial logistic function. Findings suggest that the perception of women regarding employment opportunities in the Philippines links the negative relationship observed between fertility, fecundity and women’s employment status. Today, there has been a convergence in the traditional family roles of men and women, as both genders now have identical employment opportunities that continue to shape their preferences.

Keywords: multinomial logistic function, tobit, fertility, women employment status, fecundity

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Authors: Saeed Jahanbakhsh Asl, Yaghob Dinpazhoh, Masoumeh Foroughi

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Reference evapotranspiration (ET₀) is an important element in the water cycle that integrates atmospheric demands and surface conditions, and analysis of changes in ET₀ is of great significance for understanding climate change and its impacts on hydrology. As ET₀ is an integrated effect of climate variables, increases in air temperature should lead to increases in ET₀. ET₀ estimated by using the globally accepted Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Penman-Monteith (FAO-56 PM) method in 18 meteorological stations located in the West of Iran. The trends of ET₀ detected by using the Mann-Kendall (MK) test. The slopes of the trend lines were computed by using the Sen’s slope estimator. The results showed significant increasing as well as decreasing trends in the annual and monthly ET₀. However, ET₀ trends were increasing. In the monthly scale, the number of the increasing trends was more than the number of decreasing trends, in the majority of warm months of the year.

Keywords: climate change, Mann–Kendall, Penman-Monteith method (FAO-56 PM), reference crop evapotranspiration

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Authors: Radha Krishan, Deepak Khare, Bhaskar R. Nikam, Ayush Chandrakar

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Every irrigation project is planned considering long-term historical climatic conditions; however, the prompt climatic shift and change has come out with such circumstances which were inconceivable in the past. Considering this fact, scrutiny of rainfall and temperature trend has been carried out over the command area of Eastern Ganga Canal project for pre-climate shift period and post-climate shift periods in the present study. Non-parametric Mann-Kendall and Sen’s methods have been applied to study the trends in annual rainfall, seasonal rainfall, annual rainy day, monsoonal rainy days, average annual temperature and seasonal temperature. The results showed decreasing trend of 48.11 to 42.17 mm/decade in annual rainfall and 79.78 tSo 49.67 mm/decade in monsoon rainfall in pre-climate to post-climate shift periods, respectively. The decreasing trend of 1 to 4 days/decade has been observed in annual rainy days from pre-climate to post-climate shift period. Trends in temperature revealed that there were significant decreasing trends in annual (-0.03 ºC/yr), Kharif (-0.02 ºC/yr), Rabi (-0.04 ºC/yr) and summer (-0.02 ºC/yr) season temperature during pre-climate shift period, whereas the significant increasing trend (0.02 ºC/yr) has been observed in all the four parameters during post climate shift period. These results will help project managers in understanding the climate shift and lead them to develop alternative water management strategies.

Keywords: climate shift, rainfall trend, temperature trend, Mann-Kendall test, sen slope estimator, eastern Ganga canal command

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Authors: Seyyed Abolhasan Naeini, Ehsan Azini

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In this paper, we consider the stability of a slope of 10 meters in silty gravel soils with modeling in the Geostudio Software.  we intend to use the parameters of the volumetric water content and suction dependent permeability and provides relationships and graphs using the parameters obtained from gradation tests and Atterberg’s limits. Also, different conditions of the soil will be investigated, including: checking the factor of safety and deformation rates and pore water pressure in drained, non-drained and unsaturated conditions, as well as the effect of reducing the water level on other parameters. For this purpose, it is assumed that the groundwater level is at a depth of 2 meters from the ground.  Then, with decreasing water level, the safety factor of slope stability was investigated and it was observed that with decreasing water level, the safety factor increased.

Keywords: slope stability analysis, factor of safety, matric suction, unsaturated silty gravel soil

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Authors: Eric Asare, Jamie Evans, Mark Newton, Emiliano Bilotti

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Two types of filler shapes (sphere and flakes) and three different sizes are employed to study the size effect on PTC. The composite is prepared using a mini-extruder with high-density polyethylene (HDPE) as the matrix. A computer modelling is used to fit the experimental results. The percolation threshold decreases with decreasing filler size and this was observed for both the spherical particles as well as the flakes. This was caused by the decrease in interparticle distance with decreasing filler size. The 100 µm particles showed a larger PTC intensity compared to the 5 µm particles for the metal coated glass sphere and flake. The small particles have a large surface area and agglomeration and this makes it difficult for the conductive network to e disturbed. Increasing the filler content decreased the PTC intensity and this is due to an increase in the conductive network within the polymer matrix hence more energy is needed to disrupt the network.

Keywords: positive temperature coefficient (PTC) effect, conductive polymer composite (CPC), electrical conductivity

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Authors: A. P. Attanayake, K. A. P. W. Jayatilaka, L. K. B. Mudduwa, C. Pathirana

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Triggering of β-cell regeneration is a recognized therapeutic strategy for the treatment of type 1 diabetes mellitus. One such approach to foster restoration and regeneration of β-cells is from exogenous natural extracts. The aim of the present study was to investigate and compare the β-cell regenerative potentials of the extracts of Spondias pinnata (Linn. f.) Kurz, Coccinia grandis (L.) Voigt and Gmelina arborea Roxb. in alloxan induced diabetic rats. Wistar rats were divided in to six groups (n=6); healthy untreated rats, alloxan induced diabetic untreated rats (150 mg/kg, ip), diabetic rats receiving the extracts of S. pinnata (1.0 g/kg), C. grandis (0.75 g/kg), G. arobrea (1.00 g/kg) and diabetic rats receiving glibenclamide (0.5 mg/kg) for 30 days. The assessment of selected biochemical parameters, histopathology and immunohistochemistry in the pancreatic tissue were done on the 30th day. The reduction in the percentage of HbA1C was in the decreasing order of C. grandis (35%), G. arborea (31%) and S. pinnata (29%) in alloxan induced diabetic rats (p< 0.05). The concentration of serum fructosamine, insulin and C-peptide were decreased significantly in a decreasing order of C. grandis (30%, 72%, 51%), G. arborea (25%, 44%, 44%) and S. pinnata (27%, 34%, 24%) in alloxan induced diabetic rats (p < 0.05). The extent of β-cell regeneration was in the decreasing order of C. grandis, G. arborea, S. pinnata reflected through the increased percentage of insulin secreting β-cells in alloxan induced diabetic rats. The extract of C. grandis produced the highest degree of β-cell regeneration demonstrated through an increase in the number of islets and percentage of the insulin secreting β-cells (75%) in the pancreas of diabetic rats (p < 0.05). Further the C. grandis extract produced a significant increase in mean profile diameter in small (118%), average (10%), and large (13%) islets as compared with diabetic control rats respectively. However, statistically significant increase in the islet profile diameter was shown only in average (2%) and large (5%) islets in the G. arborea extract treated rats and large islets (5%) in S. pinnata extract treated diabetic rats (p < 0.05). The β-cell regeneration potency was in the decreasing order of C. grandis (0.75 g/kg), G. arborea (1.00 g/kg) and S. pinnata (1.00 g/kg) in alloxan induced diabetic rats. The three plant extracts may be useful as natural agents of triggering the β-cell regeneration in the management of type 1 diabetes mellitus.

Keywords: alloxan-induced diabetic rats, β-cell regeneration, histopathology, immunohistochemistry

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Authors: Sabry Shaaban, Tom McNamara, Sarah Hudson

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This paper investigates the benefits of deliberately unbalancing both operation time means (MTs) and unreliability (failure and repair rates) for non-automated production lines.The lines were simulated with various line lengths, buffer capacities, degrees of imbalance and patterns of MT and unreliability imbalance. Data on two performance measures, namely throughput (TR) and average buffer level (ABL) were gathered, analyzed and compared to a balanced line counterpart. A number of conclusions were made with respect to the ranking of configurations, as well as to the relationships among the independent design parameters and the dependent variables. It was found that the best configurations are a balanced line arrangement and a monotone decreasing MT order, coupled with either a decreasing or a bowl unreliability configuration, with the first generally resulting in a reduced TR and the second leading to a lower ABL than those of a balanced line.

Keywords: unreliable production lines, unequal mean operation times, unbalanced failure and repair rates, throughput, average buffer level

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Authors: Shatirah Akib, Hossein Basser, Hojat Karami, Afshin Jahangirzadeh

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Bridge piers which are constructed in the track of high water rivers cause some variations in the flow patterns. This variation mostly is a result of the changes in river sections. Decreasing the river section, bridge piers significantly impress the flow patterns. Once the flow approaches the piers, the stream lines change their order, causing the appearance of different flow patterns around the bridge piers. New flow patterns are created following the geometry and the other technical characteristics of the piers. One of the most significant consequences of this event is the scour generated around the bridge piers which threatens the safety of the structure. In order to determine the properties of scour holes, to find maximum depth of the scour is an important factor. In this manuscript a numerical simulation of the scour around Marand-Soofian route bridge piers has been carried out via SSIIM 2.0 Software and the amount of maximum scour has been achieved subsequently. Eventually the methods for retrofitting of bridge piers against scours and also the methods for decreasing the amount of scour have been offered.

Keywords: scour, bridge pier, numerical simulation, SSIIM 2.0

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Authors: Inaki Maulida Hakim, T. Yuri M. Zagloel, Astari Wulandari

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Six sigma is a framework that is used to identify inefficiency so that the cause of inefficiency will be known and right improvement to overcome cause of inefficiency can be conducted. This paper presents result of implementing six sigma to improve piston assembly line in Manufacturing Laboratory, Universitas Indonesia. Six sigma framework will be used to analyze the significant factor of inefficiency that needs to be improved which causes bottleneck in assembly line. After analysis based on six sigma framework conducted, line balancing method was chosen for improvement to overcome causative factor of inefficiency which is differences time between workstation that causes bottleneck in assembly line. Then after line balancing conducted in piston assembly line, the result is increase in efficiency. Efficiency is shown in the decreasing of Defects per Million Opportunities (DPMO) from 900,000 to 700,000, the increasing of level of labor productivity from 0.0041 to 0.00742, the decreasing of idle time from 121.3 seconds to 12.1 seconds, and the increasing of output, which is from 1 piston in 5 minutes become 3 pistons in 5 minutes.

Keywords: assembly line, line balancing, productivity, six sigma

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Authors: Chung Gun Lee

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Objectives: Certain life change events were shown to have strong effects on physical activity-related behavior, but more research is needed to investigate the longer-term effects of different life change events on physical activity-related behaviors. The purpose of this study is to examine the effect of experiencing physically or non-physically forced sexual activity on sports participation from adolescence to young adulthood. Methods: This study used the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health) data. Group-based trajectory modeling was utilized to examine the effect of experiencing sexual assault on trajectories of sports participation from adolescence to young adulthood. Results: Male participants were divided into three trajectory groups (i.e., Low-stable, High-decreasing, and High-stable) and female participants were divided into two trajectory groups (i.e., Low-stable and High-decreasing). The main finding of this study is that women who experienced non-physically forced sexual activity significantly decreases sports participation throughout the trajectory in ‘High-decreasing group.’ The effect of non-physically forced sexual activity on women’s sports participation was considerably weakened and became insignificant after including psychological depression in the model as a potential mediator. Discussion: Special attention should be paid to sport participation among women victims of non-physically forced sexual activity. Further studies are needed to examine other potential mediators in addition to psychological depression when examining the effect of non-physically forced sexual activity on sport participation in women.

Keywords: adolescent, group-based trajectory modeling, sexual assault, young adult

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Authors: Tarek M. Ahmed, Ahmed S. El Mesalamy, Amro M. Youssef, Tawfik T. El Midany

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Abrasive waterjet (AWJ) machining is considered as one of the most powerful cutting processes. It can be used for cutting heat sensitive, hard and reflective materials. Aluminum 2024 is a high-strength alloy which is widely used in aerospace and aviation industries. This paper aims to improve aluminum alloy and to investigate the effect of AWJ control parameters on surface geometry quality. Design of experiments (DoE) is used for establishing an experimental matrix. Statistical modeling is used to present a relation between the cutting parameters (pressure, speed, and distance between the nozzle and cut surface) and responses (taper angle and surface roughness). The results revealed a tangible improvement in productivity by using AWJ processing. The taper kerf angle can be improved by decreasing standoff distance and speed and increasing water pressure. While decreasing (cutting speed, pressure and distance between the nozzle and cut surface) improve the surface roughness in the operating window of cutting parameters.

Keywords: abrasive waterjet machining, machining of aluminum alloy, non-traditional cutting, statistical modeling

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Authors: A. Chegenizadeh, M. Keramatikerman, H. Nikraz

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Bitumen is one of the most applicable materials in pavement engineering. It is a binding material with unique viscoelastic properties, especially when it mixes with polymer. In this study, to figure out the viscoelastic behaviour of the polymer modified with bitumen (PMB), a series of dynamic shearing rheological (DSR) tests were conducted. Four percentages of lime (i.e. 1%, 2%, 4% and 5%) were mixed with PMB and tested under four different temperatures including 64ºC, 70ºC, 76ºC and 82ºC. The results indicated that complex shearing modulus (G*) increased by increasing the frequency due to raised resistance against deformation. The phase angle (δ) showed a decreasing trend by incrementing the frequency. The addition of lime percentages increased the complex modulus value and declined phase angle parameter. Increasing the temperature decreased the complex modulus and increased the phase angle until 70ºC. The decreasing trend of rutting factor with increasing temperature revealed that rutting factor improved by the addition of the lime to the PMB.

Keywords: rheological properties, DSR test, polymer mixed with bitumen (PMB), complex modulus, lime

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Authors: Moslem Hossain, Mukesh Kumar, K. C. Das

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Background: Household headship is the crucial decision-maker as well as the economic provider of the household. In Indian society, household heads occupied by men from the pre-colonial period. This study attempt to examine the changes in household headship in India. Methods: The study used univariate and multivariate analysis to examine the trends and patterns of different characteristics of the household head using the various rounds of national family health survey data. Results: The female household head is gradually increasing; on the other hand, the male-dominant is decreasing over the four national family and health surveys. The mean age of the household head is higher in rural areas than urban India. Only ten percentage of Households are higher educated, and 83 percent of the male household head has a low standard of living. The mean family size of the household has a decreasing trend in both the urban and rural areas during the study period. Conclusions: The result indicates that women's autonomy is increasing and leading to inclusive growth, which introduced in the eleven five year plan, especially focuses on the woman and young people in the country.

Keywords: household head, national family health survey, mean age, mean family size

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Authors: Vinci Mojamdar, Govind S. Gupta

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Moving beds in the presence of gas flow are widely used in metallurgical and chemical industries like blast furnaces, catalyst reforming, drying, etc. Pressure drop studies in co- and counter – current conditions have been done by a few researchers. However, to the best of authours knowledge, proper pressure drop study with lateral gas injection lacks especially in the presence of cavity and nozzle protrusion inside the packed bed. The latter study is more useful for metallurgical industries for the processes such as blast furnaces, shaft reduction and, COREX. In this experimental work, a two dimensional cold model with slot type nozzle for lateral gas injection along with the plastic beads as packing material and dry air as gas have been used. The variation of pressure drop is recorded at various horizontal and vertical directions in the presence of cavity and nozzle protrusion. The study has been performed in both moving and stationary beds. Also, the experiments have been carried out in both increasing as well as decreasing gas flow conditions. Experiments have been performed at various gas flow rates and packed bed heights. Some interesting results have been reported such as there is no pressure variation in the moving bed for both the increasing and decreasing gas flow condition that is different from the stationary bed. Pressure hysteresis loop has been observed in a stationary bed.

Keywords: lateral gas injection, moving bed, pressure drop, pressure hysteresis, stationary bed

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Authors: Sherly Shelton, Zhaohui Lin

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In recent decades, the inter-annual variability of summer precipitation over the India and Sri Lanka has intensified significantly with an increased frequency of both abnormally dry and wet summers. Therefore prediction of the inter-annual variability of summer precipitation is crucial and urgent for water management and local agriculture scheduling. However, none of the hypotheses put forward so far could understand the relationship to monsoon variability and related factors that affect to the South West Monsoon (SWM) variability in Sri Lanka. This study focused to identify the spatial and temporal variability of SWM rainfall events from June to September (JJAS) over Sri Lanka and associated trend. The monthly rainfall records covering 1980-2013 over the Sri Lanka are used for 19 stations to investigate long-term trends in SWM rainfall over Sri Lanka. The linear trends of atmospheric variables are calculated to understand the drivers behind the changers described based on the observed precipitation, sea surface temperature and atmospheric reanalysis products data for 34 years (1980–2013). Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis was applied to understand the spatial and temporal behaviour of seasonal SWM rainfall variability and also investigate whether the trend pattern is the dominant mode that explains SWM rainfall variability. The spatial and stations based precipitation over the country showed statistically insignificant decreasing trends except few stations. The first two EOFs of seasonal (JJAS) mean of rainfall explained 52% and 23 % of the total variance and first PC showed positive loadings of the SWM rainfall for the whole landmass while strongest positive lording can be seen in western/ southwestern part of the Sri Lanka. There is a negative correlation (r ≤ -0.3) between SMRI and SST in the Arabian Sea and Central Indian Ocean which indicate that lower temperature in the Arabian Sea and Central Indian Ocean are associated with greater rainfall over the country. This study also shows that consistently warming throughout the Indian Ocean. The result shows that the perceptible water over the county is decreasing with the time which the influence to the reduction of precipitation over the area by weakening drawn draft. In addition, evaporation is getting weaker over the Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal and Sri Lankan landmass which leads to reduction of moisture availability required for the SWM rainfall over Sri Lanka. At the same time, weakening of the SST gradients between Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal can deteriorate the monsoon circulation, untimely which diminish SWM over Sri Lanka. The decreasing trends of moisture, moisture transport, zonal wind, moisture divergence with weakening evaporation over Arabian Sea, during the past decade having an aggravating influence on decreasing trends of monsoon rainfall over the Sri Lanka.

Keywords: Arabian Sea, moisture flux convergence, South West Monsoon, Sri Lanka, sea surface temperature

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Authors: Ali Heidari

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This paper presents the principles for improving flood mitigation operation in multipurpose dams and maximizing reservoir performance during flood occurrence with a focus on the real-time operation of gated spillways. The criteria of operation include the safety of dams during flood management, minimizing the downstream flood risk by decreasing the flood hazard and fulfilling water supply and other purposes of the dam operation in mid and long terms horizons. The parameters deemed to be important include flood inflow, outlet capacity restrictions, downstream flood inundation damages, economic revenue of dam operation, and environmental and sedimentation restrictions. A simulation model was used to determine the real-time release of the Dez dam located in the Dez rivers in southwest Iran, considering the gate regulation curves for the gated spillway. The results of the simulation model show that there is a possibility to improve the current procedures used in the real-time operation of the dams, particularly using gate regulation curves and early flood forecasting system results. The Dez dam operation data shows that in one of the best flood control records, % 17 of the total active volume and flood control pool of the reservoir have not been used in decreasing the downstream flood hazard despite the availability of a flood forecasting system.

Keywords: dam operation, flood control criteria, Dez dam, Iran

Procedia PDF Downloads 194