Search results for: consumer behaviors
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 2650

Search results for: consumer behaviors

670 In vivo Mechanical Characterization of Facial Skin Combining Digital Image Correlation and Finite Element

Authors: Huixin Wei, Shibin Wang, Linan Li, Lei Zhou, Xinhao Tu

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Facial skin is a biomedical material with complex mechanical properties of anisotropy, viscoelasticity, and hyperelasticity. The mechanical properties of facial skin are crucial for a number of applications including facial plastic surgery, animation, dermatology, cosmetic industry, and impact biomechanics. Skin is a complex multi-layered material which can be broadly divided into three main layers, the epidermis, the dermis, and the hypodermis. Collagen fibers account for 75% of the dry weight of dermal tissue, and it is these fibers which are responsible for the mechanical properties of skin. Many research on the anisotropic mechanical properties are mainly concentrated on in vitro, but there is a great difference between in vivo and in vitro for mechanical properties of the skin. In this study, we presented a method to measure the mechanical properties of facial skin in vivo. Digital image correlation (DIC) and indentation tests were used to obtain the experiment data, including the deformation of facial surface and indentation force-displacement curve. Then, the experiment was simulated using a finite element (FE) model. Application of Computed Tomography (CT) and reconstruction techniques obtained the real tissue geometry. A three-dimensional FE model of facial skin, including a bi-layer system, was obtained. As the epidermis is relatively thin, the epidermis and dermis were regarded as one layer and below it was hypodermis in this study. The upper layer was modeled as a Gasser-Ogden-Holzapfel (GOH) model to describe hyperelastic and anisotropic behaviors of the dermis. The under layer was modeled as a linear elastic model. In conclusion, the material properties of two-layer were determined by minimizing the error between the FE data and experimental data.

Keywords: facial skin, indentation test, finite element, digital image correlation, computed tomography

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669 Enzyme Immobilization on Functionalized Polystyrene Nanofibersfor Bioprocessing Applications

Authors: Mailin Misson, Bo Jin, Sheng Dai, Hu Zhang

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Advances in biotechnology have witnessed a growing interest in enzyme applications for the development of green and sustainable bio processes. While known as powerful bio catalysts, enzymes are no longer of economic value when extended to large commercialization. Alternatively, immobilization technology allows enzyme recovery and continuous reuse which subsequently compensates high operating costs. Employment of enzymes on nano structured materials has been recognized as a promising approach to enhance enzyme catalytic performances. High porosity, inter connectivity and self-assembling behaviors endow nano fibers as exciting candidate for enzyme carrier in bio reactor systems. In this study, nano fibers were successfully fabricated via electro spinning system by optimizing the polymer concentration (10-30 %, w/v), applied voltage (10-30 kV) and discharge distance (11-26 cm). Microscopic images have confirmed the quality as homogeneous and good fiber alignment. The nano fibers surface was modified using strong oxidizing agent to facilitate bio molecule binding. Bovine serum albumin and β-galactosidase enzyme were employed as model bio catalysts and immobilized onto the oxidized surfaces through covalent binding. Maximum enzyme adsorption capacity of the modified nano fibers was 3000 mg/g, 3-fold higher than the unmodified counterpart (1000 mg/g). The highest immobilization yield was 80% and reached the saturation point at 2 mg/ml of enzyme concentration. The results indicate a significant increase of activity retention by the enzyme-bound modified nano fibers (80%) as compared to the nascent one (60%), signifying excellent enzyme-nano carrier bio compatibility. The immobilized enzyme was further used for the bio conversion of dairy wastes into value-added products. This study demonstrates great potential of acid-modified electrospun polystyrene nano fibers as enzyme carriers.

Keywords: immobilization, enzyme, nanocarrier, nanofibers

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668 Review on Future Economic Potential Stems from Global Electronic Waste Generation and Sustainable Recycling Practices.

Authors: Shamim Ahsan

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Abstract Global digital advances associated with consumer’s strong inclination for the state of art digital technologies is causing overwhelming social and environmental challenges for global community. During recent years not only economic advances of electronic industries has taken place at steadfast rate, also the generation of e-waste outshined the growth of any other types of wastes. The estimated global e-waste volume is expected to reach 65.4 million tons annually by 2017. Formal recycling practices in developed countries are stemming economic liability, opening paths for illegal trafficking to developing countries. Informal crude management of large volume of e-waste is transforming into an emergent environmental and health challenge in. Contrariwise, in several studies formal and informal recycling of e-waste has also exhibited potentials for economic returns both in developed and developing countries. Some research on China illustrated that from large volume of e-wastes generation there are recycling potential in evolving from ∼16 (10−22) billion US$ in 2010, to an anticipated ∼73.4 (44.5−103.4) billion US$ by 2030. While in another study, researcher found from an economic analysis of 14 common categories of waste electric and electronic equipment (WEEE) the overall worth is calculated as €2.15 billion to European markets, with a potential rise to €3.67 billion as volumes increase. These economic returns and environmental protection approaches are feasible only when sustainable policy options are embraced with stricter regulatory mechanism. This study will critically review current researches to stipulate how global e-waste generation and sustainable e-waste recycling practices demonstrate future economic development potential in terms of both quantity and processing capacity, also triggering complex some environmental challenges.

Keywords: E-Waste, , Generation, , Economic Potential, Recycling

Procedia PDF Downloads 299
667 Finite Element Analysis for Earing Prediction Incorporating the BBC2003 Material Model with Fully Implicit Integration Method: Derivation and Numerical Algorithm

Authors: Sajjad Izadpanah, Seyed Hadi Ghaderi, Morteza Sayah Irani, Mahdi Gerdooei

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In this research work, a sophisticated yield criterion known as BBC2003, capable of describing planar anisotropic behaviors of aluminum alloy sheets, was integrated into the commercial finite element code ABAQUS/Standard via a user subroutine. The complete formulation of the implementation process using a fully implicit integration scheme, i.e., the classic backward Euler method, is presented, and relevant aspects of the yield criterion are introduced. In order to solve nonlinear differential and algebraic equations, the line-search algorithm was adopted in the user-defined material subroutine (UMAT) to expand the convergence domain of the iterative Newton-Raphson method. The developed subroutine was used to simulate a challenging computational problem with complex stress states, i.e., deep drawing of an anisotropic aluminum alloy AA3105. The accuracy and stability of the developed subroutine were confirmed by comparing the numerically predicted earing and thickness variation profiles with the experimental results, which showed an excellent agreement between numerical and experimental earing and thickness profiles. The integration of the BBC2003 yield criterion into ABAQUS/Standard represents a significant contribution to the field of computational mechanics and provides a useful tool for analyzing the mechanical behavior of anisotropic materials subjected to complex loading conditions.

Keywords: BBC2003 yield function, plastic anisotropy, fully implicit integration scheme, line search algorithm, explicit and implicit integration schemes

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666 Credibility and Personal Social Media Use of Health Professionals: A Field Study

Authors: Abrar Al-Hasan

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Objectives: There is ongoing discourse regarding the potential risks to health professionals' reputations and credibility arising from their personal social media use. However, the specific impacts on professional credibility and the health professional-client relationship remain largely unexplored. This study aims to investigate the type and frequency of the content posted by health professionals on their Instagram accounts and its influence on their credibility and the professional-client relationship. Methodology: In a controlled field study, participants reviewed randomly assigned mock Instagram profiles of health professionals. Mock profiles were constructed according to gender (female/male), social media usage (high/low), and social media richness (high/ low), with richness increasing from posts to stories to reels and personal content type (high /low). Participants then rated the profile owners’ credibility on a visual analog scale. An analysis of variance compared these ratings, and mediation analyses assessed the influence of credibility ratings on participants' willingness to become clients of the mock health professional. Results: Results from 315 participants showed that health professionals with personal Instagram profiles displaying high social media richness were perceived as more credible than those with lower social media richness. Low social media usage is perceived as more credible than high social media usage. Personal content type is perceived as less credible as compared to those with low personal content type. Contributions: These findings provide initial evidence of the impact of health professionals' personal online disclosures on credibility and the health professional-client relationship. Understanding public perceptions of professionalism and credibility is essential for informing e-professionalism guidelines and promoting best practices in social media use among health professionals.

Keywords: credibility, consumer behavior, social media, media richness, healthcare professionals

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665 Proinflammatory Response of Agglomerated TiO2 Nanoparticles in Human-Immune Cells

Authors: Vaiyapuri Subbarayn Periasamy, Jegan Athinarayanan, Ali A. Alshatwi

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The widespread use of Titanium oxide nanoparticles (TiO2-NPs), now are found with different physic-chemical properties (size, shape, chemical properties, agglomeration, etc.) in many processed foods, agricultural chemicals, biomedical products, food packaging and food contact materials, personal care products, and other consumer products used in daily life. Growing evidences have been highlighted that there are risks of physico-chemical properties dependent toxicity with special attention to “TiO2-NPs and human immune system”. Unfortunately, agglomeration and aggregation have frequently been ignored in immuno-toxicological studies, even though agglomeration and aggregation would be expected to affect nanotoxicity since it changes the size, shape, surface area, and other properties of the TiO2-NPs. In this present investigation, we assessed the immune toxic effect of TiO2-NPs on human immune cells Total WBC including Lymphocytes (T cells (CD3+), T helper cells (CD3+, CD4+), Suppressor/cytotoxic T cells (CD3+/CD8+) and NK cells (CD3-/CD16+ and CD56+), Monocytes (CD14+, CD3-) and B lymphocytes (CD19+, CD3-) in order to find the immunological response (IL1A, IL1B, IL2 IL-4, IL5 IL-6, IL-10, IL-12, IL-13, IFN-γ, TGF-β, and TNF-a) and redox gene regulation (TNF, p53, BCl-2, CAT, GSTA4, TNF, CYP1A, POR, SOD1, GSTM3, GPX1, and GSR1)-linking physicochemical properties with special reference to agglomeration of TiO2-NPs. Our findings suggest that TiO2-NPs altered cytokine production, enhanced phagocytic indexing, metabolic stress through specific immune regulatory- genes expression in different WBC subsets and may contribute to pro-inflammatory response. Although TiO2-NPs have great advantages in the personal care products, biomedical, food and agricultural products, its chronic and acute immune-toxicity still need to be assessed carefully with special reference to food and environmental safety.

Keywords: TiO2 nanoparticles, oxidative stress, cytokine, human immune cells

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664 Digital Female Entrepreneurs in South Africa: Drivers and Relationship to Economic Development

Authors: C. van den Berg, C. Pokpas

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Popular discourse touts entrepreneurship as a universal solution for underdevelopment, unemployment, and poverty. Moreover, claims are made that women and other disadvantaged groups can achieve material and personal success through digital entrepreneurship. This paper examines the potential of digital technology in entrepreneurial ventures to stimulate economic growth for marginalized groups and communities. Although digital entrepreneurship is hailed as a means to empower under-resourced and socially marginalized people, these opportunities still exist within the confines of existing social and cultural practices. The perspectives of female digital entrepreneurs in developing countries are sorely understudied, particularly concerning an understanding of the complex underlying socio-cultural factors impeding women’s entrepreneurial behaviors. This qualitative study, guided by a feminist phenomenological perspective, focused on the experiences of digital female entrepreneurs in the Western Cape of South Africa. Data were collected via semi-structured interviews and analyzed through the interpretative phenomenological analysis (IPA) approach to determine the relationships between digital entrepreneurship and structural and agential enabling conditions. Findings show that digital entrepreneurship is not a panacea for economic growth in marginalized groups and communities and highlight the importance of addressing socio-cultural gender inequality to enable successful entrepreneurial activity. The paper concludes with recommendations for specialized training initiatives aimed at female entrepreneurs that address internalized constraints and barriers that keep women subservient and measures to shift gender and power beliefs. The outcome will benefit the stimulation of gender-specific public policies to develop a successful digital start-up ecosystem further.

Keywords: digital innovation, female digital entrepreneurs, feminist phenomenology, gender, marginalised communities

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663 Jatropha curcas L. Oil Selectivity in Froth Flotation

Authors: André C. Silva, Izabela L. A. Moraes, Elenice M. S. Silva, Carlos M. Silva Filho

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In Brazil, most soils are acidic and low in essential nutrients required for the growth and development of plants, making fertilizers essential for agriculture. As the biggest producer of soy in the world and a major producer of coffee, sugar cane and citrus fruits, Brazil is a large consumer of phosphate. Brazilian’s phosphate ores are predominantly from igneous rocks showing a complex mineralogy, associated with carbonites and oxides, typically iron, silicon and barium. The adopted industrial concentration circuit for this type of ore is a mix between magnetic separation (both low and high field) to remove the magnetic fraction and a froth flotation circuit composed by a reverse flotation of apatite (barite’s flotation) followed by direct flotation circuit (rougher, cleaner and scavenger circuit). Since the 70’s fatty acids obtained from vegetable oils are widely used as lower-cost collectors in apatite froth flotation. This is a very effective approach to the apatite family of minerals, being that this type of collector is both selective and efficient (high recovery). This paper presents Jatropha curcas L. oil (JCO) as a renewable and sustainable source of fatty acids with high selectivity in froth flotation of apatite. JCO is considerably rich in fatty acids such as linoleic, oleic and palmitic acid. The experimental campaign involved 216 tests using a modified Hallimond tube and two different minerals (apatite and quartz). In order to be used as a collector, the oil was saponified. The results found were compared with the synthetic collector, Fotigam 5806 produced by Clariant, which is composed mainly by soy oil. JCO showed the highest selectivity for apatite flotation with cold saponification at pH 8 and concentration of 2.5 mg/L. In this case, the mineral recovery was around 95%.

Keywords: froth flotation, jatropha curcas, microflotation, selectivity

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662 The Role of Metaphor in Communication

Authors: Fleura Shkëmbi, Valbona Treska

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In elementary school, we discover that a metaphor is a decorative linguistic device just for poets. But now that we know, it's also a crucial tactic that individuals employ to understand the universe, from fundamental ideas like time and causation to the most pressing societal challenges today. Metaphor is the use of language to refer to something other than what it was originally intended for or what it "literally" means in order to suggest a similarity or establish a connection between the two. People do not identify metaphors as relevant in their decisions, according to a study on metaphor and its effect on decision-making; instead, they refer to more "substantive" (typically numerical) facts as the basis for their problem-solving decision. Every day, metaphors saturate our lives via language, cognition, and action. They argue that our conceptions shape our views and interactions with others and that concepts define our reality. Metaphor is thus a highly helpful tool for both describing our experiences to others and forming notions for ourselves. In therapeutic contexts, their shared goal appears to be twofold. The cognitivist approach to metaphor regards it as one of the fundamental foundations of human communication. The benefits and disadvantages of utilizing the metaphor differ depending on the target domain that the metaphor portrays. The challenge of creating messages and surroundings that affect customers' notions of abstract ideas in a variety of industries, including health, hospitality, romance, and money, has been studied for decades in marketing and consumer psychology. The aim of this study is to examine, through a systematic literature review, the role of the metaphor in communication and in advertising. This study offers a selected analysis of this literature, concentrating on research on customer attitudes and product appraisal. The analysis of the data identifies potential research questions. With theoretical and applied implications for marketing, design, and persuasion, this study sheds light on how, when, and for whom metaphoric communications are powerful.

Keywords: metaphor, communication, advertising, cognition, action

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661 Classifying Affective States in Virtual Reality Environments Using Physiological Signals

Authors: Apostolos Kalatzis, Ashish Teotia, Vishnunarayan Girishan Prabhu, Laura Stanley

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Emotions are functional behaviors influenced by thoughts, stimuli, and other factors that induce neurophysiological changes in the human body. Understanding and classifying emotions are challenging as individuals have varying perceptions of their environments. Therefore, it is crucial that there are publicly available databases and virtual reality (VR) based environments that have been scientifically validated for assessing emotional classification. This study utilized two commercially available VR applications (Guided Meditation VR™ and Richie’s Plank Experience™) to induce acute stress and calm state among participants. Subjective and objective measures were collected to create a validated multimodal dataset and classification scheme for affective state classification. Participants’ subjective measures included the use of the Self-Assessment Manikin, emotional cards and 9 point Visual Analogue Scale for perceived stress, collected using a Virtual Reality Assessment Tool developed by our team. Participants’ objective measures included Electrocardiogram and Respiration data that were collected from 25 participants (15 M, 10 F, Mean = 22.28  4.92). The features extracted from these data included heart rate variability components and respiration rate, both of which were used to train two machine learning models. Subjective responses validated the efficacy of the VR applications in eliciting the two desired affective states; for classifying the affective states, a logistic regression (LR) and a support vector machine (SVM) with a linear kernel algorithm were developed. The LR outperformed the SVM and achieved 93.8%, 96.2%, 93.8% leave one subject out cross-validation accuracy, precision and recall, respectively. The VR assessment tool and data collected in this study are publicly available for other researchers.

Keywords: affective computing, biosignals, machine learning, stress database

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660 Ground Source Ventilation and Solar PV Towards a Zero-Carbon House in Riyadh

Authors: Osamah S. Alanazi, Mohammad G. Kotbi, Mohammed O. AlFadil

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While renewable energy technology is developing in Saudi Arabia, and the ambitious 2030 vision encourages the shift towards more efficient and clean energy usage. The research on the application of geothermal resources in residential use for the Saudi Arabian context will contribute towards a more sustainable environment. This paper is a part of an ongoing master's thesis, which its main goal is to investigate the possibility of achieving a zero-carbon house in Riyadh by applying a ground-coupled system into a current sustainable house that uses a grid-tied solar system. The current house was built and designed by King Saud University for the 2018 middle east solar decathlon competition. However, it failed to reach zero-carbon operation due to the high cooling demand. This study will redesign and validate the house using Revit and Carriers Hourly Analysis 'HAP' software with the use of ordinary least square 'OLS' regression. After that, a ground source ventilation system will be designed using the 'GCV Tool' to reduce cooling loads. After the application of the ground source system, the new electrical loads will be compared with the current house. Finally, a simple economic analysis that includes the cost of applying a ground source system will be reported. The findings of this study will indicate the possibility and feasibility of reaching a zero-carbon house in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, using a ground-coupled ventilation system. While cooling in the residential sector is the dominant energy consumer in the Gulf region, this work will certainly help in moving towards using renewable sources to meet those demands. This paper will be limited to highlight the literature review, the methodology of the research, and the expected outcome.

Keywords: renewable energy, zero-carbon houses, sustainable buildings, geothermal energy, solar PV, GCV Tool

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659 Conceptualizing Clashing Values in the Field of Media Ethics

Authors: Saadia Izzeldin Malik

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Lack of ethics is the crisis of the 21-century. Today’s global world is filled with economic, political, environmental, media/communication, and social crises that all generated by the eroding fabric of ethics and moral values that guide human’s decisions in all aspects of live. Our global world is guided by liberal western democratic principles and liberal capitalist economic principles that define and reinforce each other. In economic terms, capitalism has turned world economic systems into one market place of ideas and products controlled by big multinational corporations that not only determine the conditions and terms of commodity production and commodity exchange between countries, but also transform the political economy of media systems around the globe. The citizen (read the consumer) today is the target of persuasion by all types of media at a time when her/his interests should be, ethically and in principle, the basic significant factor in the selection of media content. It is very important in this juncture of clashing media values –professional and commercial- and wide spread ethical lapses of media organizations and media professionals to think of a perspective to theorize these conflicting values within a broader framework of media ethics. Thus, the aim of this paper is to, epistemologically, bring to the center a perspective on media ethics as a basis for reconciliation of clashing values of the media. The paper focuses on conflicting ethical values in current media debate; namely ownership of media vs. press freedom, individual right for privacy vs. public right to know, and global western consumerism values vs. media values. The paper concludes that a framework to reconcile conflicting values of media ethics should focus on the “individual” journalist and his/her moral development as well as focus on maintaining ethical principles of the media as an institution with a primary social responsibility for the “public” it serves.

Keywords: ethics, media, journalism, social responsibility, conflicting values, global

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658 Gamipulation: Exploring Covert Manipulation Through Gamification in the Context of Education

Authors: Aguiar-Castillo Lidia, Perez-Jimenez Rafael

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The integration of gamification in educational settings aims to enhance student engagement and motivation through game design elements in learning activities. This paper introduces "Gamipulation," the subtle manipulation of students via gamification techniques serving hidden agendas without explicit consent. It highlights the need to distinguish between beneficial and exploitative uses of gamification in education, focusing on its potential to psychologically manipulate students for purposes misaligned with their best interests Through a literature review and expert interviews, this study presents a conceptual framework outlining gamipulation's features. It examines ethical concerns like gradually introducing desired behaviors, using distraction to divert attention from significant learning objectives, immediacy of rewards fostering short-term engagement over long-term learning, infantilization of students, and exploitation of emotional responses over reflective thinking. Additionally, it discusses ethical issues in collecting and utilizing student data within gamified environments. Key findings suggest that while gamification can enhance motivation and engagement, there's a fine line between ethical motivation and unethical manipulation. The study emphasizes the importance of transparency, respect for student autonomy, and alignment with educational values in gamified systems. It calls for educators and designers to be aware of gamification's manipulative potential and strive for ethical implementation that benefits students. In conclusion, this paper provides a framework for educators and researchers to understand and address gamipulation's ethical challenges. It encourages developing ethical guidelines and practices to ensure gamification in education remains a tool for positive engagement and learning rather than covert manipulation.

Keywords: gradualness, distraction, immediacy, infantilization, emotion

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657 The Logistics Equation and Fractal Dimension in Escalators Operations

Authors: Ali Albadri

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The logistics equation has never been used or studied in scientific fields outside the field of ecology. It has never been used to understand the behavior of a dynamic system of mechanical machines, like an escalator. We have studied the compatibility of the logistic map against real measurements from an escalator. This study has proven that there is good compatibility between the logistics equation and the experimental measurements. It has discovered the potential of a relationship between the fractal dimension and the non-linearity parameter, R, in the logistics equation. The fractal dimension increases as the R parameter (non-linear parameter) increases. It implies that the fractal dimension increases as the phase of the life span of the machine move from the steady/stable phase to the periodic double phase to a chaotic phase. The fractal dimension and the parameter R can be used as a tool to verify and check the health of machines. We have come up with a theory that there are three areas of behaviors, which they can be classified during the life span of a machine, a steady/stable stage, a periodic double stage, and a chaotic stage. The level of attention to the machine differs depending on the stage that the machine is in. The rate of faults in a machine increases as the machine moves through these three stages. During the double period and the chaotic stages, the number of faults starts to increase and become less predictable. The rate of predictability improves as our monitoring of the changes in the fractal dimension and the parameter R improves. The principles and foundations of our theory in this work have and will have a profound impact on the design of systems, on the way of operation of systems, and on the maintenance schedules of the systems. The systems can be mechanical, electrical, or electronic. The discussed methodology in this paper will give businesses the chance to be more careful at the design stage and planning for maintenance to control costs. The findings in this paper can be implied and used to correlate the three stages of a mechanical system to more in-depth mechanical parameters like wear and fatigue life.

Keywords: logistcs map, bifurcation map, fractal dimension, logistics equation

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656 Improvement of Contractor’s Competitiveness through Sustainable Construction Practices in UAE

Authors: Sareh Rajabi, Taha Anjamrooz, Salwa Bheiry

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Sustainability of construction projects is an important issue to be addressed since the sector will continue to be developed in the coming years, especially in developing countries. Thus, it is significant to discover approaches and solutions for improving sustainability. Currently, the construction industry is the largest consumer of natural resources. This is the same in other countries in the Gulf region, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has limited natural resources such as water, electricity, etc. Recently, the UAE has taken several actions in order to implement sustainable initiatives within its construction industry. Within the industry, the contractors’ role is significant in promoting sustainable development by taking the responsibility to minimize their negative impacts on the environment and society, and maximize their economic distribution. In this research, sustainability will be studied as an important key to bring competitive advantages to contracting organizations. The contractors should understand the need to improve their sustainable performance in order to expand their business competitiveness. Competitiveness at the construction project level refers to a contractor’s ability to compete for a project. There is less focus on how to improve contractors’ competitiveness by implementing sustainable construction practices. Based on an inclusive literature review on the relationship between sustainability performance and business competitiveness, this research will conduct a study of sustainable practice in the construction industry and the relationship between sustainability performance and business competitiveness in order to develop a framework for evaluating how contractors can improve their competitiveness in terms of more efficient processes, enhancements in productivity, and lower costs of compliance in order to reduce the initial project cost and obtain market opportunities in the UAE. The research findings will provide a framework that can be a useful guideline for contractors to develop their sustainability policy, strategy and practice for meeting the increased requirements for sustainable development in construction.

Keywords: sustainable construction practice, sustainability, competitiveness, construction industry, contractors

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655 Modeling Socioeconomic and Political Dynamics of Terrorism in Pakistan

Authors: Syed Toqueer, Omer Younus

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Terrorism, today, has emerged as a global menace with Pakistan being the most adversely affected state. Therefore, the motive behind this study is to empirically establish the linkage of terrorism with socio-economic (uneven income distribution, poverty and unemployment) and political nexuses so that a policy recommendation can be put forth to better approach this issue in Pakistan. For this purpose, the study employs two competing models, namely, the distributed lag model and OLS, so that findings of the model may be consolidated comprehensively, over the reference period of 1984-2012. The findings of both models are indicative of the fact that uneven income distribution of Pakistan is rather a contributing factor towards terrorism when measured through GDP per capita. This supports the hypothesis that immiserizing modernization theory is applicable for the state of Pakistan where the underprivileged are marginalized. Results also suggest that other socio-economic variables (poverty, unemployment and consumer confidence) can condense the brutality of terrorism once these conditions are catered to and improved. The rational of opportunity cost is at the base of this argument. Poor conditions of employment and poverty reduces the opportunity cost for individuals to be recruited by terrorist organizations as economic returns are considerably low and thus increasing the supply of volunteers and subsequently increasing the intensity of terrorism. The argument of political freedom as a means of lowering terrorism stands true. The more the people are politically repressed the more alternative and illegal means they will find to make their voice heard. Also, the argument that politically transitioning economy faces more terrorism is found applicable for Pakistan. Finally, the study contributes to an ongoing debate on which of the two set of factors are more significant with relation to terrorism by suggesting that socio-economic factors are found to be the primary causes of terrorism for Pakistan.

Keywords: terrorism, socioeconomic conditions, political freedom, distributed lag model, ordinary least square

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654 An Analysis of the Dominance of Migrants in the South African Spaza and Retail market: A Relationship-Based Network Perspective

Authors: Meron Okbandrias

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The South African formal economy is rule-based economy, unlike most African and Asian markets. It has a highly developed financial market. In such a market, foreign migrants have dominated the small or spaza shops that service the poor. They are highly competitive and capture significant market share in South Africa. This paper analyses the factors that assisted the foreign migrants in having a competitive age. It does that by interviewing Somali, Bangladesh, and Ethiopian shop owners in Cape Town analysing the data through a narrative analysis. The paper also analyses the 2019 South African consumer report. The three migrant nationalities mentioned above dominate the spaza shop business and have significant distribution networks. The findings of the paper indicate that family, ethnic, and nationality based network, in that order of importance, form bases for a relationship-based business network that has trust as its mainstay. Therefore, this network ensures the pooling of resources and abiding by certain principles outside the South African rule-based system. The research identified practises like bulk buying within a community of traders, sharing information, buying from a within community distribution business, community based transportation system and providing seed capital for people from the community to start a business is all based on that relationship-based system. The consequences of not abiding by the rules of these networks are social and economic exclusion. In addition, these networks have their own commercial and social conflict resolution mechanisms aside from the South African justice system. Network theory and relationship based systems theory form the theoretical foundations of this paper.

Keywords: migrant, spaza shops, relationship-based system, South Africa

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653 Level of Grief, Emotional Impact and Coping Strategies of Internal Medicine Residents in Response to a Patient’s Death

Authors: Florge Francis A. Sy

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Physicians develop emotional and psychological distress after facing a patient’s death. This can result in stress or burnout. Coping mechanisms in dealing with these deaths may be maladaptive. Determining grief, emotional impact, and coping strategies in physicians is necessary to identify those needing intervention. This can be done by employing validated assessment tools such as the Texas Revised Inventory of Grief (TRIG) scale, Impact of Events Scale (IES), and BriefCOPE tool, respectively. This prospective, observational study was done in a private hospital in Cebu City. Fifty-five internal medicine residents were included and tasked to answer a survey based on their most memorable patient death encounter. The TRIG, IES, and BriefCOPE scores were determined. Participants were divided into severe grief and non-severe grief based on TRIG scores, low-impact, moderate-impact, and high-impact based on IES, and low-use, moderate-use, and high-use based on the BriefCOPE. The differences in the groups’ characteristics were statistically determined, and a p-value of < 0.05 was significant. The participants’ average age was 28.45 years. Most were female and single. Most belonged to the non-severe group based on TRIG, a moderate-impact group based on the IES, and high-use group based on the BriefCOPE. However, 21.8% reported severe grief, 27.3% reported high-impact, and 10.9% had low use of coping strategies. The proportion of residents who encountered CPR prior to the patient’s death was greater in the severe group. Proportions of both high-impact and non-high impact groups were comparable. The proportion of female residents was higher in the high-use group. There were a number of residents who reported severe grief, high emotional impact, and low coping strategies. This highlights the need for interventions such as debriefing after CPR or formal training in residency programs in dealing with emotional burden to counteract maladaptive coping behaviors and prevent negative outcomes.

Keywords: residents, grief, emotional impact, coping, patient death

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652 Commentary on Successful and Emerging Bullying Control Programs: A Comparison between Eighteen Bullying Interventions Applied Worldwide

Authors: Sohni Siddiqui, Anja Schultze-Krumbholz

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Our lives now revolve more around online-related tasks, as the internet has become a necessity. One of the disturbance concerns with high internet usage is the multiplication of cyber-associated risky behaviors such as cyber aggression and/or cyberbullying. Cyber Bullying is an emerging issue that needs immediate attention from many stakeholders such as parents, doctors, school administrators, policymakers, researchers, and others, especially in the COVID-19 pandemic when online learning has been adopted as an instructional strategy, and there is a continuous rise in cyberbullying cases. The aim of the article is to review existing successful and emerging interventions designed to control bullying and cyberbullying by engaging individuals through teachers’ professional development and adopting a whole-school approach. The study identified the strengths and limitations of the programs and suggested improvements to existing interventions. Preparing interventions with a strong theoretical framework, integrating applications of emerging theories in interventions, promoting proactive and reactive strategies in combination, beginning with the baseline needs assessment surveys, reducing digital time and digital divide among parents and children, promoting the concept of lead trainer, peer trainer, and hot spots, focusing on physical activities, use of landmarks are some of the recommendations proposed by authors. In addition to face-to-face intervention, the researchers recommend updating and improving previous intervention programs with games and apps. Especially in the time of pandemic crises, when face-to-face interactions are limited and cyberbullying is triggered, the use of apps, web-based interventions, and games can be an effective way to control electronic perpetration and victimization.

Keywords: anti bullying programs, cyber bullying, individualized trainings, teachers’ professional development, whole school interventions

Procedia PDF Downloads 143
651 Social Networks in a Communication Strategy of a Large Company

Authors: Kherbache Mehdi

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Within the framework of the validation of the Master in business administration marketing and sales in INSIM institute international in management Blida, we get the opportunity to do a professional internship in Sonelgaz Enterprise and a thesis. The thesis deals with the integration of social networking in the communication strategy of a company. The problematic is: How communicate with social network can be a solution for companies? The challenges stressed by this thesis were to suggest limits and recommendations to Sonelgaz Enterprise concerning social networks. The whole social networks represent more than a billion people as a potential target for the companies. Thanks to research and a qualitative approach, we have identified tree valid hypothesis. The first hypothesis allows confirming that using social networks cannot be ignored by any company in its communication strategy. However, the second hypothesis demonstrates that it’s necessary to prepare a strategy that integrates social networks in the communication plan of the company. The risk of this strategy is very limited because failure on social networks is not a restraint for the enterprise, social networking is not expensive and, a bad image which could result from it is not as important in the long-term. Furthermore, the return on investment is difficult to evaluate. Finally, the last hypothesis shows that firms establish a new relation between consumers and brands thanks to the proximity allowed by social networks. After the validation of the hypothesis, we suggested some recommendations to Sonelgaz Enterprise regarding the communication through social networks. Firstly, the company must use the interactivity of social network in order to have fruitful exchanges with the community. We also recommended having a strategy to treat negative comments. The company must also suggest delivering resources to the community thanks to a community manager, in order to have a good relation with the community. Furthermore, we advised using social networks to do business intelligence. Sonelgaz Enterprise can have some creative and interactive contents with some amazing applications on Facebook for example. Finally, we recommended to the company to be not intrusive with “fans” or “followers” and to be open to all the platforms: Twitter, Facebook, Linked-In for example.

Keywords: social network, buzz, communication, consumer, return on investment, internet users, web 2.0, Facebook, Twitter, interaction

Procedia PDF Downloads 415
650 Steady and Spatio-Temporal Monitoring of Water Quality Feeding Area Southwest of Great Casablanca (Morocco)

Authors: Hicham Maklache, Rajae Delhi, Fatiha Benzha, Mohamed Tahiri

Abstract:

In Morocco, where semi-arid climate is dominant, the supply of industrial and drink water is provided primarily by surface water. Morocco has currently 118 multi-purpose dams. If the construction of these works was a necessity to ensure in all seasons, the water essential to our country, it is impartial to control and protect the quality of running water. -Most dam reservoir used are threatened by eutrophication due to increased terrigenous and anthropogenic pollutants, coming from an over-fertilization of water by phosphorus and nitrogen nutrients and accelerated by uncontrolled development of microalgae aging. It should also be noted that the daily practices of citizens with respect to the resource, an essential component involved in almost all human activities (agriculture, agro-industries, hydropower, ...), has contributed significantly to the deterioration of water quality despite its treatment in several plants. Therefore, the treated water, provides a legacy of bad tastes and odors unacceptable to the consumer. -The present work exhibits results of water quality watershed Oum Erbia used to supply drinking water to the whole terraced area connecting the city of Khenifra to the city of Azemmour. The area south west of Great Casablanca (metropolis of the kingdom with about 4 million inhabitants) supplied 50% of its water needs by sourcing Dam Sidi Said Maachou located, last anchor point of the watershed before the spill in the Atlantic Ocean. The results were performed in a spatio-temporal scale and helped to establish a history of monitoring water quality during the 2009-2011 cycles, the study also presents the development of quality according to the seasonal rhythmicity and rainfall. It gives also an overview on the concept of watershed stewardship.

Keywords: crude surface water quality, Oum Er Rbia hydraulic basin, spatio-temporal monitoring, Great Casablanca drink water quality, Morocco

Procedia PDF Downloads 438
649 Identification of Avian Fauna of Bara Gali Summer Campus, University of Peshawar

Authors: Saif Ullah

Abstract:

Survey of avian fauna of Bara Gali Summer Campus, University of Peshawar in the Hazara District was conducted from April to October, 2013. A total of 21 species belonging to 5 orders and 15 families were recorded. Out of these 6 were resident, 12 were summer visitor and 3 were rare. Order Passeriformes was represented by 16 species which are Certhia himalayana, Megalaima virens, Phylloscopus trochiloides, Garrulax lineatus, Passer rutilans, Corvus macrorhynchos, Hypsipetes leucocephalus, Acridotheres tristis, Delichon dasypus cashmeriensis, Hirundo rustica, Muscicapa thalassina, Saxicola ferrea, Myiophoneus caeruleus, Parus melonolophus, Parus rufonuchalis, Parus monticolus, belonging to 11 families. Two species Dendrocopos himalayansis and Picus squamatus belongs to only 1 family of order Piciformes. Only one species from the remaining 3 orders were recorded i.e. Accipiter virgatus belongs to order Accipitriformes, Upupa epops from order Coraciformes, while order Psittaciformes represented by Psittacula himalayana .The distribution and abundance varied with season and maximum number of species was found during the monsoon season when most of the birds migrate for breeding. Some habits and behaviors like nesting, feeding, breeding and vocalizations were also studied which are very unique from other birds. Among bird species adapted to diverse habitat in the field, Himalayan Jungle Crow, Common Mynas, Bulbuls, Barn Swallows, barbets were prominent. Interesting feature of the avian fauna is familiarity with flora was greatly observed. Human related impacts such as grazing by livestock, removal of shrub cover, disturbance of habitat etc. were also studied.

Keywords: birds, summer visitor, Phylloscopus trochiloides, Parus monticolus

Procedia PDF Downloads 301
648 Reduction of Transient Receptor Potential Vanilloid 1 for Chronic Pain and Depression Co-Morbidity through Electroacupuncture and Gene Deletion in Mice Brain

Authors: Bernice Lottering, Yi-Wen Lin

Abstract:

Chronic pain and depression have an estimated 80% rate of comorbidity with unsatisfactory treatment interventions signifying the importance of developing effective therapeutic interventions for a serious chronic condition affecting a large majority of the global population. Chronic pain is defined as persistent pain presenting for over 3 months. This disease state increases the risk of developing depression in comparison to healthy individuals. In the current study, complete Freund’s adjuvant (CFA) was used to induce cell-mediated chronic inflammatory pain in a murine model. Significant mechanical and thermal hyperalgesia was induced, alongside observable depression-like behaviors. These conditions were attenuated through the use of electroacupuncture (EA). Similarly, these effects were also investigated with respect to the transient receptor potential vanilloid 1 (TRPV1), by analyzing the effects of TRPV1 gene deletion on the comorbidity of chronic pain and depression. The expression of the TRPV1 inflammatory response, and related downstream molecules, including protein kinases (PKs), mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPKs), and transcriptional factors, were significantly reduced in the thalamus, prefrontal cortex (PFC), hippocampus, and periaqueductal gray (PAG) of CFA-treated mice. In addition, phosphorylated N-methyl-D-aspartate (NMDA) receptor 1 was also found to be reduced in the aforementioned areas, suggesting potential application and validity in a clinical setting. Our study determined the prospective therapeutic effects of EA in the treatment of chronic inflammatory pain and depression comorbidity and provides a novel and detailed mechanism underlying EA-mediated analgesia. These findings may be relevant in the utilization of clinical intervention approaches related to chronic pain and depression comorbidity.

Keywords: chronic pain, depression, NMDA, prefrontal cortex, TRPV1

Procedia PDF Downloads 128
647 Development of Nursing Service System Integrated Case Manager Concept for the Patients with Epilepsy at the Tertiary Epilepsy Clinic of Thailand

Authors: C. Puangsawat, C. Limotai, P. Srikhachin

Abstract:

Bio-psycho-social caring was required for promoting the quality of life of the patients with epilepsy (PWE), despite controlled seizures. Multifaceted issues emerge at the epilepsy clinic. Unpredicted seizures, antiepileptic drug compliance problems/adverse effects, psychiatric, and social problems are all needed to be explored and managed. The Nursing Service System (NSS) at the tertiary epilepsy clinic (TEC) was consequently developed for improving the clinical care for PWE. Case manager concept was integrated as the framework guiding the processes and strategies used for developing the NSS as well as the roles of the multidisciplinary team at the clinic. This study aimed to report the outcomes of the developed NSS integrated case manager concept. The processes of our developed NSS program included 1) screening for patient’s problems using questionnaire prior to seeing epileptologists i.e., assessing the patient’s risk to develop acute seizures at the clinic, issues related to medication use, and uncovered psychiatric and social problems; and 2) assigning the patients at risk to be evaluated and managed by appropriate team. Nurses specializing in epilepsy in coordination with the multidisciplinary team implemented the NSS to promote coordinated work among the team which consists of epileptologists, nurses, pharmacists, psychologists, and social workers. Determination of the role of each person and their responsibilities along with joint care plan were clearly established. One year after implementation, the rate of acute seizure occurrence at the clinic was decreased, and satisfactory feedback from the patients was received. In order to achieve an optimal goal to promote self-management behaviors in PWE, continuing the NSS and systematic assessment of its effectiveness is required.

Keywords: case manager concept, nursing service system, patients with epilepsy, quality of life

Procedia PDF Downloads 119
646 Agent-Based Modelling to Improve Dairy-origin Beef Production: Model Description and Evaluation

Authors: Addisu H. Addis, Hugh T. Blair, Paul R. Kenyon, Stephen T. Morris, Nicola M. Schreurs, Dorian J. Garrick

Abstract:

Agent-based modeling (ABM) enables an in silico representation of complex systems and cap-tures agent behavior resulting from interaction with other agents and their environment. This study developed an ABM to represent a pasture-based beef cattle finishing systems in New Zea-land (NZ) using attributes of the rearer, finisher, and processor, as well as specific attributes of dairy-origin beef cattle. The model was parameterized using values representing 1% of NZ dairy-origin cattle, and 10% of rearers and finishers in NZ. The cattle agent consisted of 32% Holstein-Friesian, 50% Holstein-Friesian–Jersey crossbred, and 8% Jersey, with the remainder being other breeds. Rearers and finishers repetitively and simultaneously interacted to determine the type and number of cattle populating the finishing system. Rearers brought in four-day-old spring-born calves and reared them until 60 calves (representing a full truck load) on average had a live weight of 100 kg before selling them on to finishers. Finishers mainly attained weaners from rearers, or directly from dairy farmers when weaner demand was higher than the supply from rearers. Fast-growing cattle were sent for slaughter before the second winter, and the re-mainder were sent before their third winter. The model finished a higher number of bulls than heifers and steers, although it was 4% lower than the industry reported value. Holstein-Friesian and Holstein-Friesian–Jersey-crossbred cattle dominated the dairy-origin beef finishing system. Jersey cattle account for less than 5% of total processed beef cattle. Further studies to include re-tailer and consumer perspectives and other decision alternatives for finishing farms would im-prove the applicability of the model for decision-making processes.

Keywords: agent-based modelling, dairy cattle, beef finishing, rearers, finishers

Procedia PDF Downloads 91
645 Analysis of Dynamics Underlying the Observation Time Series by Using a Singular Spectrum Approach

Authors: O. Delage, H. Bencherif, T. Portafaix, A. Bourdier

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The main purpose of time series analysis is to learn about the dynamics behind some time ordered measurement data. Two approaches are used in the literature to get a better knowledge of the dynamics contained in observation data sequences. The first of these approaches concerns time series decomposition, which is an important analysis step allowing patterns and behaviors to be extracted as components providing insight into the mechanisms producing the time series. As in many cases, time series are short, noisy, and non-stationary. To provide components which are physically meaningful, methods such as Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD), Empirical Wavelet Transform (EWT) or, more recently, Empirical Adaptive Wavelet Decomposition (EAWD) have been proposed. The second approach is to reconstruct the dynamics underlying the time series as a trajectory in state space by mapping a time series into a set of Rᵐ lag vectors by using the method of delays (MOD). Takens has proved that the trajectory obtained with the MOD technic is equivalent to the trajectory representing the dynamics behind the original time series. This work introduces the singular spectrum decomposition (SSD), which is a new adaptive method for decomposing non-linear and non-stationary time series in narrow-banded components. This method takes its origin from singular spectrum analysis (SSA), a nonparametric spectral estimation method used for the analysis and prediction of time series. As the first step of SSD is to constitute a trajectory matrix by embedding a one-dimensional time series into a set of lagged vectors, SSD can also be seen as a reconstruction method like MOD. We will first give a brief overview of the existing decomposition methods (EMD-EWT-EAWD). The SSD method will then be described in detail and applied to experimental time series of observations resulting from total columns of ozone measurements. The results obtained will be compared with those provided by the previously mentioned decomposition methods. We will also compare the reconstruction qualities of the observed dynamics obtained from the SSD and MOD methods.

Keywords: time series analysis, adaptive time series decomposition, wavelet, phase space reconstruction, singular spectrum analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 100
644 Healthcare Workers' Attitudes Towards People Living With Hiv And Drug Users

Authors: Delband Yekta Moazami

Abstract:

Background: For proper care and treatment of HIV patients and drug users, the medical staff and physicians must have a correct and positive attitude and knowledge towards such patients. We aimed to assess the attitudes in a sample of health care workers (HCW) working in different hospitals and clinics and medical students in Georgia towards HIV infected people and drug users in Tbilisi. Method: We conducted a cross-sectional study to assess attitudes of health care workers towards people living with HIV and drug users in hospitals and clinics in Tbilisi. The study was carried out from 1st of May 2020 till 30th of September 2020. Data were collected using a self-administered structured online questionnaire. With this tool we evaluated four facets of attitudes: Discrimination, Acceptance of HIV/AIDS patients, Acceptance of drug users and Fear. All data were imported and analyzed with the software SPSS 22 for windows. Results: In total data was collected from168 respondents, that among them 107 (65%) were women and majority of the participants were medical doctors. Women had more acceptance attitudes rather than men towards drug abusers. We found significant differences regarding expressing negative attitudes among HCW who were more than 50 years old comparing with other age groups in all four aspects. Medical doctors expressed more acceptances towards people with HIV and drug users comparing two other groups. Also our study revealed that the group with working experience 21 years and more, showed more discriminatory attitudes comparing other groups. Conclusion: Based on our study findings, there are significant differences regarding respondent’s attitudes based on gender, medical specialty and working experience in health care system. People struggling with HIV and drug use need nonjudgmental and positive behaviors from health care workers and physicians in order to help them for harm reduction and receiving appropriate treatment.

Keywords: hiv, addiction, attitudes, healthcare workers

Procedia PDF Downloads 75
643 Characterization of a Dentigerous Cyst Cell Line and Its Secretion of Metalloproteinases

Authors: Muñiz-Lino Marcos A.

Abstract:

The ectomesenchymal tissues involved in tooth development and their remnants are the origin of different odontogenic lesions, including tumors and cysts of the jaws, with a wide range of clinical behaviors. A dentigerous cyst (DC) represents approximately 20% of all cases of odontogenic cysts, and it has been demonstrated that it can develop benign and malignant odontogenic tumors. DC is characterized by bone destruction of the area surrounding the crown of a tooth that has not erupted and contains liquid. The treatment of odontogenic tumors and cysts usually involves a partial or total removal of the jaw, causing important secondary co-morbidities. However, molecules implicated in DC pathogenesis, as well as in its development into odontogenic tumors, remain unknown. A cellular model may be useful to study these molecules, but that model has not been established yet. Here, we reported the establishment of a cell culture derived from a dentigerous cyst. This cell line was named DeCy-1. In spite of its ectomesenchymal morphology, DeCy-1 cells express epithelial markers such as cytokeratins 5, 6, and 8. Furthermore, these cells express the ODAM protein, which is present in odontogenesis and in dental follicles, indicating that DeCy-1 cells are derived from odontogenic epithelium. Analysis by electron microscopy of this cell line showed that it has a high vesicular activity, suggesting that DeCy-1 could secrete molecules that may be involved in DC pathogenesis. Thus, secreted proteins were analyzed by PAGE-SDS where we observed approximately 11 bands. In addition, the capacity of these secretions to degrade proteins was analyzed by gelatin substrate zymography. A degradation band of about 62 kDa was found in these assays. Western blot assays suggested that the matrix metalloproteinase 2 (MMP-2) is responsible for this protease activity. Thus, our results indicate that the establishment of a cell line derived from DC is a useful in vitro model to study the biology of this odontogenic lesion and its participation in the development of odontogenic tumors.

Keywords: dentigerous cyst, ameloblastoma, MMP-2, odontogenic tumors

Procedia PDF Downloads 26
642 Development of Personal Protection Equipment for Dental Surgeon

Authors: Thi. A. D. Tran, Matthieu Arnold, Dominique Adolphe, Laurence Schcher, Guillaume Reys

Abstract:

During daily oral health cares, dental surgeons are in contact with numerous potentially infectious germs from patients' saliva and blood. In order to take into account these risks, a product development process has been unrolled to propose to the dental surgeon a personal protection equipment that is suitable with their expectations in terms of images, protection and comfort. After a consumer study, to evaluate how the users wear the garment and their expectations, specifications have been carried out and technical solutions have been developed in order to answer to the maximum of the desiderata. Thermal studies and comfort studies have been performed. The obtained results lead to define the technical solutions concerning the design of the new scrub. Three main functions have been investigated, the ergonomic aspect, the protection and the thermal comfort. In terms of ergonomic aspect, instrumented garments have been worn and pressure measurements have been done. The results highlight that a raglan shape for the sleeves has to be selected for a better dynamic comfort. Moreover, spray tests helped us to localize the potential contamination area and therefore protection devices have been placed on the garment. Concerning the thermal comfort, an I-R study was conducted in consulting room under the real working conditions; the heating zones have been detected. Based on these results, solutions have been proposed and implemented in a new gown. This new gown is currently composed of three different parts; a protective layer placed in the chest area to avoid contamination; a breathable layer placed in the back and in the armpits and a normal PET/Cotton fabric for the rest of the gown. Through the fitting tests conducted in hospital, it was obtained that the new design was highly appreciated. Some points can nevertheless be further improved. A final product will be produced based on necessary improvements.

Keywords: comfort, dentists, garment, thermal

Procedia PDF Downloads 305
641 Development of a Predictive Model to Prevent Financial Crisis

Authors: Tengqin Han

Abstract:

Delinquency has been a crucial factor in economics throughout the years. Commonly seen in credit card and mortgage, it played one of the crucial roles in causing the most recent financial crisis in 2008. In each case, a delinquency is a sign of the loaner being unable to pay off the debt, and thus may cause a lost of property in the end. Individually, one case of delinquency seems unimportant compared to the entire credit system. China, as an emerging economic entity, the national strength and economic strength has grown rapidly, and the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate has remained as high as 8% in the past decades. However, potential risks exist behind the appearance of prosperity. Among the risks, the credit system is the most significant one. Due to long term and a large amount of balance of the mortgage, it is critical to monitor the risk during the performance period. In this project, about 300,000 mortgage account data are analyzed in order to develop a predictive model to predict the probability of delinquency. Through univariate analysis, the data is cleaned up, and through bivariate analysis, the variables with strong predictive power are detected. The project is divided into two parts. In the first part, the analysis data of 2005 are split into 2 parts, 60% for model development, and 40% for in-time model validation. The KS of model development is 31, and the KS for in-time validation is 31, indicating the model is stable. In addition, the model is further validation by out-of-time validation, which uses 40% of 2006 data, and KS is 33. This indicates the model is still stable and robust. In the second part, the model is improved by the addition of macroeconomic economic indexes, including GDP, consumer price index, unemployment rate, inflation rate, etc. The data of 2005 to 2010 is used for model development and validation. Compared with the base model (without microeconomic variables), KS is increased from 41 to 44, indicating that the macroeconomic variables can be used to improve the separation power of the model, and make the prediction more accurate.

Keywords: delinquency, mortgage, model development, model validation

Procedia PDF Downloads 219