Search results for: catastrophe modelling

Authors: Abhishek Mangal, Kunal Tongaria, S. Mandal, Devendra Mohan

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Carbonation of reinforced concrete structures has emerged as one of the major challenges for Civil engineers across the world. With increasing emissions from various activities, carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere has been eve rising, enhancing its penetration in porous concrete, reaching steel bars and ultimately leading to premature failure. Several literatures have been published dealing with the various interdependent variables related to carbonation. However, with innumerable variability a generalization of these data proves to be a troublesome task. This paper looks into this carbonation anomaly in concrete structures caused by various external variables such as relative humidity, concentration of CO2, curing period and ambient temperature. Significant discussions and comparisons have been presented on the basis of various studies conducted with an aim to predict the depth of carbonation as a function of these multidimensional parameters using various numerical and statistical modelling techniques.

Keywords: carbonation, curing, exposure conditions, relative humidity

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Authors: Marsudi, Noor Hidayat, Ratno Bagus Edy Wibowo

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This paper considers a deterministic model for the transmission dynamics of HIV/AIDS in which condom campaign and treatment are both important for the disease management. In modelling of the spread of AIDS, the population is divided into six subpopulations, namely susceptible population, susceptible population who change their behavior due to education condom campaign, infected population, pre-AIDS population, treated population and full-blown AIDS population. We calculate the effective reproduction number using the next generation matrix method and investigate the existence and stability of the equilibrium points. A sensitivity analysis discovers parameters that have a high impact on effective reproduction number and should be targeted by intervention strategies. Numerical simulations are given to illustrate and verify our analytic results.

Keywords: HIV/AIDS, condom campaign, antiretroviral treatment, effective reproduction number, stability and sensitivity analysis

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Authors: Behrang Dadfar, Hossein Bidhendi, Jimmy Susetyo, John Paul Abbatangelo

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Finding structural demand under various conditions that a structure may experience during its service life is an important step towards structural life-cycle analysis. In this paper, structural demand for the precast concrete tunnel lining (PCTL) segments of Toronto’s 60-year-old subway tunnels is investigated. Numerical modelling was conducted using FLAC3D, a finite difference-based software capable of simulating ground-structure interaction and ground material’s flow in three dimensions. The specific structural details of the segmental tunnel lining, such as the convex shape of the PCTL segments at radial joints and the PCTL segment pockets, were considered in the numerical modelling. Also, the model was developed in a way to accommodate the flexibility required for the simulation of various deterioration scenarios, shapes, and patterns that have been observed over more than 20 years. The soil behavior was simulated by using plastic-hardening constitutive model of FLAC3D. The effect of the depth of the tunnel, the coefficient of lateral earth pressure as well as the patterns of deterioration of the segments were studied. The structural capacity under various deterioration patterns and the existing loading conditions was evaluated using axial-flexural interaction curves that were developed for each deterioration pattern. The results were used to provide recommendations for the next phase of tunnel lining rehabilitation program.

Keywords: precast concrete tunnel lining, ground-structure interaction, numerical modelling, deterioration, tunnels

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Authors: Adrian O'Hagan, Robert McLoughlin

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Considerable focus in the world of insurance risk quantification is placed on modeling loss values from lines of business (LOBs) that possess upper tail dependence. Copulas such as the Joe, Gumbel and Student-t copula may be used for this purpose. The copula structure imparts a desired level of tail dependence on the joint distribution of claims from the different LOBs. Alternatively, practitioners may possess historical or simulated data that already exhibit upper tail dependence, through the impact of catastrophe events such as hurricanes or earthquakes. In these circumstances, it is not desirable to induce additional upper tail dependence when modeling the joint distribution of the loss values from the individual LOBs. Instead, it is of interest to accurately assess the degree of tail dependence already present in the data. The empirical copula and its associated upper tail dependence coefficient are presented in this paper as robust, efficient means of achieving this goal.

Keywords: empirical copula, extreme events, insurance loss reserving, upper tail dependence coefficient

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Authors: Zied Guidara, Alexander Morgenstern, Aref Maalej

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In this paper, a new desiccant solar unit for air conditioning and desalination is presented first. Secondly, a dynamic modelling study of the desiccant wheel is developed. After that, a simulation study and an experimental investigation of the behaviour of the desiccant wheel are developed. The experimental investigation is done in the chamber of commerce in Freiburg-Germany. Indeed, the variations of calculated and measured temperatures and specific humidity of dehumidified and rejected air are presented where a good agreement is found when comparing the model predictions with experimental data under the considered range of operating conditions. Finally, the study of the compartments of desalination and water condensation shows that the unit can produce an acceptable quantity of water at the same time of the air conditioning operation.

Keywords: air conditioning, desalination, condensation, design, desiccant wheel, modelling, experimental investigation

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Authors: Seyedebrahim Afkhami, Meisam Abdi, Reza Baserinia

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Additive manufacturing is revolutionising production in different industries, including pharmaceuticals. This case study explores the influence of surface area on the dissolution of additively manufactured polyvinyl alcohol parts as a polymer candidate. Specimens of different geometries and constant mass were fabricated using a Fused Deposition Modelling 3D printer. The dissolution behaviour of these samples was compared with respect to their surface area. Improved and accelerated dissolution was observed for samples with a larger surface area. This study highlights the capabilities of additive manufacturing to produce samples of complex geometries that cannot be manufactured otherwise to control the dissolution behaviour for pharmaceutical and biopharmaceutical applications.

Keywords: additive manufacturing, polymer dissolution, fused deposition modelling, geometry optimization

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Authors: D. S. Fardhyanti, Megawati, W. B. Sediawan

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Coal tar is a liquid by-product of the process of coal gasification and carbonation. This liquid oil mixture contains various kinds of useful compounds such as aromatic compounds and phenolic compounds. These compounds are widely used as raw material for insecticides, dyes, medicines, perfumes, coloring matters, and many others. This research investigates thermodynamic modelling of liquid-liquid equilibria (LLE) in the separation of phenol from the coal tar by solvent extraction. The equilibria are modeled by ternary components of Wohl, Van Laar, and Three-Suffix Margules models. The values of the parameters involved are obtained by curve-fitting to the experimental data. Based on the comparison between calculated and experimental data, it turns out that among the three models studied, the Three-Suffix Margules seems to be the best to predict the LLE of p-Cresol mixtures for those system.

Keywords: coal tar, phenol, Wohl, Van Laar, Three-Suffix Margules

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Authors: Ebuwa Osagie, Chet Biliyok, Yeung Hoi

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Regeneration energy requirement and ways to reduce it is the main aim of most CO2 capture researches currently being performed and thus, post-combustion carbon capture (PCC) option is identified to be the most suitable for the natural gas-fired power plants. From current research and development (R&D) activities worldwide, two main areas are being examined in order to reduce the regeneration energy requirement of amine-based PCC, namely: (a) development of new solvents with better overall performance than 30wt% monoethanolamine (MEA) aqueous solution, which is considered as the base-line solvent for solvent-based PCC, (b) Integration of the PCC Plant to the power plant. In scaling-up a PCC pilot plant to the size required for a commercial-scale natural gas-fired power plant, process modelling and simulation is very essential. In this work, an integrated process made up of a 482MWe natural gas-fired power plant, an MEA-based PCC plant which is developed and validated has been modelled and simulated. The PCC plant has four absorber columns and a single stripper column, the modelling and simulation was performed with Aspen Plus® V8.4. The gas turbine, the heat recovery steam generator and the steam cycle were modelled based on a 2010 US DOE report, while the MEA-based PCC plant was modelled as a rate-based process. The scaling of the amine plant was performed using a rate based calculation in preference to the equilibrium based approach for 90% CO2 capture. The power plant was integrated to the PCC plant in three ways: (i) flue gas stream from the power plant which is divided equally into four stream and each stream is fed into one of the four absorbers in the PCC plant. (ii) Steam draw-off from the IP/LP cross-over pipe in the steam cycle of the power plant used to regenerate solvent in the reboiler. (iii) Condensate returns from the reboiler to the power plant. The integration of a PCC plant to the NGCC plant resulted in a reduction of the power plant output by 73.56 MWe and the net efficiency of the integrated system is reduced by 7.3 % point efficiency. A secondary aim of this study is the parametric studies which have been performed to assess the impacts of natural gas on the overall performance of the integrated process and this is achieved through investigation of the capture efficiencies.

Keywords: natural gas-fired, power plant, MEA, CO2 capture, modelling, simulation

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Authors: R. Devicharan

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In a short span 3D Printing is expected to play a vital role in our life. The possibility of creativity and speed in manufacturing through various 3D printing processes is infinite. This study is performed on the FDM (Fused Deposition Modelling) method of 3D printing, which is one of the pre-dominant methods of 3D printing technologies. This study focuses on physical properties of the objects produced by 3D printing which determine the applications of the 3D printed objects. This paper specifically aims at the study of the tensile strength and the folding endurance of the 3D printed objects through the FDM (Fused Deposition Modelling) method using the ABS (Acronitirile Butadiene Styrene) and PLA (Poly Lactic Acid) plastic materials. The study is performed on a controlled environment and the specific machine settings. Appropriate tables, graphs are plotted and research analysis techniques will be utilized to analyse, verify and validate the experiment results.

Keywords: FDM process, 3D printing, ABS for 3D printing, PLA for 3D printing, rapid prototyping

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Authors: S. A. Sadegh Zadeh, C. Kambhampati

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Mathematical and computational modellings are the necessary tools for reviewing, analysing, and predicting processes and events in the wide spectrum range of scientific fields. Therefore, in a field as rapidly developing as neuroscience, the combination of these two modellings can have a significant role in helping to guide the direction the field takes. The paper combined mathematical and computational modelling to prove a weakness in a very precious model in neuroscience. This paper is intended to analyse all-or-none principle in Hodgkin-Huxley mathematical model. By implementation the computational model of Hodgkin-Huxley model and applying the concept of all-or-none principle, an investigation on this mathematical model has been performed. The results clearly showed that the mathematical model of Hodgkin-Huxley does not observe this fundamental law in neurophysiology to generating action potentials. This study shows that further mathematical studies on the Hodgkin-Huxley model are needed in order to create a model without this weakness.

Keywords: all-or-none, computational modelling, mathematical model, transmembrane voltage, action potential

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Authors: Nabil Mekaoui, Nacer Jabour, Abdelhamid Allaoui, Abderahim Oulidi

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The reliability of several insurance indexes of the seismic risk is evaluated and compared for an efficient seismic risk coverage of buildings in Morocco, thus, reducing the basic risk. A large database of earthquake ground motions is established from recent seismic events in Morocco and synthetic ground motions compatible with the design spectrum in order to conduct nonlinear time history analyses on three building models representative of the building stock in Morocco. The uninhabitability index is evaluated based on the simulated damage index, then correlated with preselected insurance indexes. Interestingly, the commonly used peak ground acceleration index showed poor correlation when compared with other indexes, such as spectral accelerations at low periods. Recommendations on the choice of suitable insurance indexes are formulated for efficient seismic risk coverage in Morocco.

Keywords: catastrophe modeling, damage, earthquake, reinsurance, seismic hazard, trigger index, vulnerability

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Authors: Manjula Sutagundar, B. G. Sheeparamatti, D. S. Jangamshetti

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Micro Electro Mechanical Systems (MEMS) resonators have shown the potential of replacing quartz crystal technology for sensing and high frequency signal processing applications because of inherent advantages like small size, high quality factor, low cost, compatibility with integrated circuit chips. This paper presents the optimization and modelling and simulation of the optimized micro cantilever resonator. The objective of the work is to optimize the dimensions of a micro cantilever resonator for a specified range of resonant frequency and specific quality factor. Optimization is carried out using genetic algorithm. The genetic algorithm is implemented using MATLAB. The micro cantilever resonator is modelled in CoventorWare using the optimized dimensions obtained from genetic algorithm. The modeled cantilever is analysed for resonance frequency.

Keywords: MEMS resonator, genetic algorithm, modelling and simulation, optimization

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Authors: Amirhossein Karamoozian, Desheng Wu, Behzad Abbasnejad

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Building information modelling (BIM) is a new technology to enhance the efficiency of project management in the construction industry. In addition to the potential benefits of this useful technology, there are various risks and obstacles to applying it in construction projects. In this study, a decision making approach is presented for risk assessment in BIM adoption in construction projects. Various risk factors of exerting BIM during different phases of the project lifecycle are identified with the help of Delphi method, experts’ opinions and related literature. Afterward, Shannon’s entropy and Fuzzy TOPSIS (Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Situation) are applied to derive priorities of the identified risk factors. Results indicated that lack of knowledge between professional engineers about workflows in BIM and conflict of opinions between different stakeholders are the risk factors with the highest priority.

Keywords: risk, BIM, fuzzy TOPSIS, construction projects

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Authors: Carlos Caro, Ernest Bladé, Pedro Acosta, Camilo Lesmes

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The drying-wet process is one of the topics to be more careful in distributed hydrological modeling using finite volume schemes as a means of solving the equations of Saint Venant. In a hydrologic and hydraulic computer model, surface flow phenomena depend mainly on the different flow accumulation and subsequent runoff generation. These accumulations are generated by routing, cell by cell, from the heights of water, which begin to appear due to the rain at each instant of time. Determine when it is considered a dry cell and when considered wet to include in the full calculation is an issue that directly affects the quantification of direct runoff or generation of flow at the end of a zone of contribution by accumulations flow generated from cells or finite volume.

Keywords: hydrology, transport processes, hydrological modelling, finite volume schemes

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Authors: Nurudeen Oluwasola Lasisi

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The COVID-19 is an infection caused by coronavirus, which has been designated as a pandemic in the world. In this paper, we proposed a model to study the effect of distancing and wearing masks on the transmission of COVID-19 infection dynamics. The invariant region of the model is established. The COVID-19 free equilibrium and the reproduction number of the model were obtained. The local and global stability of the model is determined using the linearization technique method and Lyapunov method. It was found that COVID-19 free equilibrium state is locally asymptotically stable in feasible region Ω if R₀ < 1 and globally asymptomatically stable if R₀ < 1, otherwise unstable if R₀ > 1. More so, numerical analysis and simulations of the dynamics of the COVID-19 infection are presented.

Keywords: distancing, reproduction number, wearing of mask, local and global stability, modelling, transmission

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Authors: Rokhmatul Insani, Hira Laksmiwati Soemitro

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Business Intelligence is a methodology that exploits the data to produce information and knowledge systematically, business intelligence can support the decision-making process. Some methods in business intelligence are data warehouse and data mining. A data warehouse can store historical data from transactional data. For data modelling in data warehouse, we apply dimensional modelling by Kimball. While data mining is used to extracting patterns from the data and get insight from the data. Data mining has many techniques, one of which is segmentation. For profiling of telecommunication customer, we use customer segmentation according to customer’s usage of services, customer invoice and customer payment. Customers can be grouped according to their characteristics and can be identified the profitable customers. We apply K-Means Clustering Algorithm for segmentation. The input variable for that algorithm we use RFM (Recency, Frequency and Monetary) model. All process in data mining, we use tools IBM SPSS modeller.

Keywords: business intelligence, customer segmentation, data warehouse, data mining

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Authors: Faisal A. Aburub

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Organizations today need to invest in software in order to run their businesses, and to the organizations’ objectives, the software should be in line with the business process. This research presents an approach for linking process models and system models. Particularly, the new approach aims to synthesize sequence diagram based on role activity diagram (RAD) model. The approach includes four steps namely: Create business process model using RAD, identify computerized activities, identify entities in sequence diagram and identify messages in sequence diagram. The new approach has been validated using the process of student registration in University of Petra as a case study. Further research is required to validate the new approach using different domains.

Keywords: business process modelling, system models, role activity diagrams, sequence diagrams

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Authors: Ka C. Lam, Oluwafunmibi S. Idowu

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Uncertainty in cost is a major factor affecting performance of construction projects. To our knowledge, several conceptual cost models have been developed with varying degrees of accuracy. Incorporating conceptual quantities into conceptual cost models could improve the accuracy of early predesign cost estimates. Hence, the development of quantity models for estimating conceptual quantities of framed reinforced concrete structures using supervised machine learning is the aim of the current research. Using measured quantities of structural elements and design variables such as live loads and soil bearing pressures, response and predictor variables were defined and used for constructing conceptual quantities models. Twenty-four models were developed for comparison using a combination of non-parametric support vector regression, linear regression, and bootstrap resampling techniques. R programming language was used for data analysis and model implementation. Gross soil bearing pressure and gross floor loading were discovered to have a major influence on the quantities of concrete and reinforcement used for foundations. Building footprint and gross floor loading had a similar influence on beams and slabs. Future research could explore the modelling of other conceptual quantities for walls, finishes, and services using machine learning techniques. Estimation of conceptual quantities would assist construction planners in early resource planning and enable detailed performance evaluation of early cost predictions.

Keywords: bootstrapping, conceptual quantities, modelling, reinforced concrete, support vector regression

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Authors: Taehan Bae

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In this paper, a class of length-biased Weibull mixtures is presented to model loss severity data. The proposed model generalizes the Erlang mixtures with the common scale parameter, and it shares many important modelling features, such as flexibility to fit various data distribution shapes and weak-denseness in the class of positive continuous distributions, with the Erlang mixtures. We show that the asymptotic tail estimate of the length-biased Weibull mixture is Weibull-type, which makes the model effective to fit loss severity data with heavy-tailed observations. A method of statistical estimation is discussed with applications on real catastrophic loss data sets.

Keywords: Erlang mixture, length-biased distribution, transformed gamma distribution, asymptotic tail estimate, EM algorithm, expectation-maximization algorithm

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Authors: Serhat Tuzun, Tufan Demirel

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Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) is the modelling of real-life to solve problems we encounter. It is a discipline that aids decision makers who are faced with conflicting alternatives to make an optimal decision. MCDM problems can be classified into two main categories: Multi-Attribute Decision Making (MADM) and Multi-Objective Decision Making (MODM), based on the different purposes and different data types. Although various MADM techniques were developed for the problems encountered, their methodology is limited in modelling real-life. Moreover, objective results are hard to obtain, and the findings are generally derived from subjective data. Although, new and modified techniques are developed by presenting new approaches such as fuzzy logic; comprehensive techniques, even though they are better in modelling real-life, could not find a place in real world applications for being hard to apply due to its complex structure. These constraints restrict the development of MADM. This study aims to conduct a comprehensive analysis of preference methods in MADM and propose an approach based on information. For this purpose, a detailed literature review has been conducted, current approaches with their advantages and disadvantages have been analyzed. Then, the approach has been introduced. In this approach, performance values of the criteria are calculated in two steps: first by determining the distribution of each attribute and standardizing them, then calculating the information of each attribute as informational energy.

Keywords: literature review, multi-attribute decision making, operations research, preference method, informational energy

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Authors: G. K. Awari, Vishwajeet V. Ambade, S. W. Rajurkar

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The field of additive manufacturing is growing, and discoveries are being made. 3D printing machines are also being developed to accommodate a wider range of 3D printing materials, including plastics, metals (metal AM powders), composites, filaments, and other materials. There are numerous printing materials available for industrial additive manufacturing. Such materials have their unique characteristics, advantages, and disadvantages. In order to avoid errors in additive manufacturing, key elements such as 3D printing material type, texture, cost, printing technique and procedure, and so on must be examined. It can be complex to select the best material for a particular job. Polylactic acid (PLA) is made from sugar cane or cornstarch, both of which are renewable resources. "Black plastic" is another name for it. Because it is safe to use and print, it is frequently used in primary and secondary schools. This is also how FDM screen printing is done. PLA is simple to print because of its low warping impact. It's also possible to print it on a cold surface. When opposed to ABS, it allows for sharper edges and features to be printed. This material comes in a wide range of colours. Polylactic acid (PLA) is the most common material used in fused deposition modelling (FDM). PLA can be used to print a wide range of components, including medical implants, household items, and mechanical parts. The mechanical behaviour of the printed item is affected by variations in infill patterns that are subjected to compressive tests in the current investigation to examine their behaviour under compressive stresses.

Keywords: fused deposition modelling, polylactic acid, infill density, infill pattern, compressive strength

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Authors: M. Capocelli, A. Caputo, M. De Falco, D. Mazzei, V. Piemonte

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This paper presents the experimental results and the related modeling of a thermal energy storage (TES) facility, ideated and realized by ENEA and realizing the thermocline with an innovative geometry. Firstly, the thermal energy exchange model of an equivalent shell & tube heat exchanger is described and tested to reproduce the performance of the spiral exchanger installed in the TES. Through the regression of the experimental data, a first-order thermocline model was also validated to provide an analytical function of the thermocline, useful for the performance evaluation and the comparison with other systems and implementation in simulations of integrated systems (e.g. power plants). The experimental data obtained from the plant start-up and the short-cut modeling of the system can be useful for the process analysis, for the scale-up of the thermal storage system and to investigate the feasibility of its implementation in actual case-studies.

Keywords: CSP plants, thermal energy storage, thermocline, mathematical modelling, experimental data

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Authors: Abul Kayum Zarzis Alam

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Death is not a terminal; it is just a junction. From Agamas to Vedas, from Buddhism to Judaism, all the major scriptures and religions of the world always do converge to this hypothesis of death. Death is the ultimate catastrophe of life and it is the genesis of every religion on this Earth. Several hundred thousand years ago, the Homo Sapiens in Paleolithic age introduced the notion of religion on this Earth in its most primitive form just to escape from death and natural catastrophes through their belief in supernatural things which created the sense of superstition among the Homo Sapiens which has only increased over time. This sense of superstition and belief in supernatural things are building blocks of religion. Religion is like entropy, a degree of disorder. Entropy for an irreversible system like our own Universe always increases. Same is happening to our human civilization where the disorder had been increasing over time. The degree of this disorder of human civilization is religion divides and conquers over the human civilization of Earth. Religion is the human entropy which had been governing and will govern us. Just like entropy, religion is also an essential intrinsic property of the system which makes the system evolved. We have to optimize this ambivalence of the human entropy to make our civilization an inclusive and sustainable one.

Keywords: death, earth, entropy, Homo sapiens, religion and human entropy

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Authors: Ameer A. Jebur, William Atherton, Rafid M. Alkhaddar, Edward Loffill

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Understanding the behaviour of the piles under the action of the independent lateral loads and the precise prediction of the capacity of piles subjected to different lateral loads are vital topics in foundation design and analysis. Moreover, the laterally loaded behaviour of deep foundations penetrated in cohesive and non-cohesive soils is basically analysed by the Winkler Model (beam on elastic foundation), in which the interaction between the pile embedded depth and contacted soil is simulated by nonlinear p–y curves. The presence of many approaches to interpret the behaviour of soil-pile interaction has resulted in numerous outputs and indicates that no general approach has yet been adopted. The current study presents the result of numerical modelling of the behaviour of steel tubular piles (25.4mm) outside diameter with various embedment depth-to-diameter ratios (L/d) embedded in a sand calibrated chamber of known relative density. The study revealed that the shear strength parameters of the sand specimens and the (L/d) ratios are the most significant factor influencing the response of the pile and its capacity while taking into consideration the complex interaction between the pile and soil. Good agreement has been achieved when comparing the application of this modelling approach with experimental physical modelling carried out by another researcher.

Keywords: deep foundations, slenderness ratio, soil-pile interaction, winkler model (beam on elastic foundation), non-cohesive soil

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Authors: Divnesh Lingam, Devi Rengamani Seenivasagam, Prashant Chand, Caleb Yee, John Chief, Rajeshkannan Ananthanarayanan

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Telecommuting Post-Pandemic: Barriers, Solutions, and Strategies. Amidst the COVID-19 outbreak in 2020, remote work emerged as a vital business continuity measure. This study investigates telecommuting’s modern work model, exploring its benefits and obstacles. Utilizing Interpretive Structural Modelling uncovers barriers hindering telecommuting adoption. A validated set of thirteen barriers is examined through departmental surveys, revealing interrelationships. The resulting model highlights interactions and dependencies, forming a foundational framework. By addressing dominant barriers, a domino effect on subservient barriers is demonstrated. This research fosters further exploration, proposing management strategies for successful telecommuting adoption and reshaping the traditional workspace.

Keywords: barriers, interpretive structural modelling, post-pandemic, telecommuting

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Authors: R. Yuan, S. Sivasankaran, N. Dutta, K. Ebrahimi

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This paper investigates the software capability and computer-aided engineering (CAE) method of modelling transient heat transfer process occurred in the vehicle underhood region during vehicle thermal soak phase. The heat retention from the soak period will be beneficial to the cold start with reduced friction loss for the second 14°C worldwide harmonized light-duty vehicle test procedure (WLTP) cycle, therefore provides benefits on both CO₂ emission reduction and fuel economy. When vehicle undergoes soak stage, the airflow and the associated convective heat transfer around and inside the engine bay is driven by the buoyancy effect. This effect along with thermal radiation and conduction are the key factors to the thermal simulation of the engine bay to obtain the accurate fluids and metal temperature cool-down trajectories and to predict the temperatures at the end of the soak period. Method development has been investigated in this study on a light-duty passenger vehicle using coupled aerodynamic-heat transfer thermal transient modelling method for the full vehicle under 9 hours of thermal soak. The 3D underhood flow dynamics were solved inherently transient by the Lattice-Boltzmann Method (LBM) method using the PowerFlow software. This was further coupled with heat transfer modelling using the PowerTHERM software provided by Exa Corporation. The particle-based LBM method was capable of accurately handling extremely complicated transient flow behavior on complex surface geometries. The detailed thermal modelling, including heat conduction, radiation, and buoyancy-driven heat convection, were integrated solved by PowerTHERM. The 9 hours cool-down period was simulated and compared with the vehicle testing data of the key fluid (coolant, oil) and metal temperatures. The developed CAE method was able to predict the cool-down behaviour of the key fluids and components in agreement with the experimental data and also visualised the air leakage paths and thermal retention around the engine bay. The cool-down trajectories of the key components obtained for the 9 hours thermal soak period provide vital information and a basis for the further development of reduced-order modelling studies in future work. This allows a fast-running model to be developed and be further imbedded with the holistic study of vehicle energy modelling and thermal management. It is also found that the buoyancy effect plays an important part at the first stage of the 9 hours soak and the flow development during this stage is vital to accurately predict the heat transfer coefficients for the heat retention modelling. The developed method has demonstrated the software integration for simulating buoyancy-driven heat transfer in a vehicle underhood region during thermal soak with satisfying accuracy and efficient computing time. The CAE method developed will allow integration of the design of engine encapsulations for improving fuel consumption and reducing CO₂ emissions in a timely and robust manner, aiding the development of low-carbon transport technologies.

Keywords: ATCT/WLTC driving cycle, buoyancy-driven heat transfer, CAE method, heat retention, underhood modeling, vehicle thermal soak

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Authors: Charlene N. T. Mfangnia, Henri Tonnang, Berge Tsanou, Jeremy Herren

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The Microsporidia MB found in the populations of anopheles is a recently discovered symbiont responsible for the Plasmodium transmission blocking. From early studies, it was established that the symbiont can be transmitted vertically and horizontally. The present study uses compartmental mathematical modelling approach to investigate the dynamics of Microsporidia transmission in the mosquito population with the mindset of establishing a mechanism for use to control malaria. Data and information obtained from laboratory experiments are used to estimate the model parameters with and without temperature dependency of mosquito traits. We carry out the mathematical analysis focusing on the equilibria states and their stability for the autonomous model. Through the modelling experiments, we are able to assess and confirm the contribution of vertical and horizontal transmission in the proliferation of Microsporidia MB in the mosquito population. In addition, the basic and target reproductions are computed, and some long-term behaviours of the model, such as the local (and global) stability of equilibrium points, are rigorously analysed and illustrated numerically. We establish the conditions responsible for the low prevalence of the symbiont-infected mosquitoes observed in nature. Moreover, we identify the male death rate, the mating rate and the attractiveness of MB-positive mosquitoes as mosquito traits that significantly influence the spread of Microsporidia MB. Furthermore, we highlight the influence of temperature in the establishment and persistence of MB-infected mosquitoes in a given area.

Keywords: microsporidia MB, vertical transmission, horizontal transmission, compartmental modelling approach, temperature-dependent mosquito traits, malaria, plasmodium-transmission blocking

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Authors: Zahreddine Hafsi, Manoranjan Mishra , Sami Elaoud

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Ensuring the maximum recovery rate of oil from reservoir rocks is a challenging task that requires preliminary numerical analysis of different techniques used to enhance the recovery process. After conventional oil recovery processes and in order to retrieve oil left behind after the primary recovery phase, water flooding in one of several techniques used for enhanced oil recovery (EOR). In this research work, EOR via water flooding is numerically modeled, and hydrodynamic instabilities resulted from immiscible oil-water flow in reservoir rocks are investigated. An oil reservoir is a porous medium consisted of many fractures of tiny dimensions. For modeling purposes, the oil reservoir is considered as a collection of capillary tubes which provides useful insights into how fluids behave in the reservoir pore spaces. Equations governing oil-water flow in oil reservoir rocks are developed and numerically solved following a finite element scheme. Numerical results are obtained using Comsol Multiphysics software. The two phase Darcy module of COMSOL Multiphysics allows modelling the imbibition process by the injection of water (as wetting phase) into an oil reservoir. Van Genuchten, Brooks Corey and Levrett models were considered as retention models and obtained flow configurations are compared, and the governing parameters are discussed. For the considered retention models it was found that onset of instabilities viz. fingering phenomenon is highly dependent on the capillary pressure as well as the boundary conditions, i.e., the inlet pressure and the injection velocity.

Keywords: capillary pressure, EOR process, immiscible flow, numerical modelling

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Authors: Eunice Christabel Chukwu

Abstract:

Introduction: Diabetes is a chronic medical condition which is characterized by high levels of glucose in the blood and urine; it is usually diagnosed by means of a glucose tolerance test (GTT). Diabetes can cause a range of health problems if left unmanaged, as it can lead to serious complications. It is essential to manage the condition effectively, particularly in the workplace where the impact on work productivity can be significant. This paper discusses the modelling of optimal control of diabetes in the workplace using a control theory approach. Background: Diabetes mellitus is a condition caused by too much glucose in the blood. Insulin, a hormone produced by the pancreas, controls the blood sugar level by regulating the production and storage of glucose. In diabetes, there may be a decrease in the body’s ability to respond to insulin or a decrease in insulin produced by the pancreas which will lead to abnormalities in the metabolism of carbohydrates, proteins, and fats. In addition to the health implications, the condition can also have a significant impact on work productivity, as employees with uncontrolled diabetes are at risk of absenteeism, reduced performance, and increased healthcare costs. While several interventions are available to manage diabetes, the most effective approach is to control blood glucose levels through a combination of lifestyle modifications and medication. Methodology: The control theory approach involves modelling the dynamics of the system and designing a controller that can regulate the system to achieve optimal performance. In the case of diabetes, the system dynamics can be modelled using a mathematical model that describes the relationship between insulin, glucose, and other variables. The controller can then be designed to regulate the glucose levels to maintain them within a healthy range. Results: The modelling of optimal control of diabetes in the workplace using a control theory approach has shown promising results. The model has been able to predict the optimal dose of insulin required to maintain glucose levels within a healthy range, taking into account the individual’s lifestyle, medication regimen, and other relevant factors. The approach has also been used to design interventions that can improve diabetes management in the workplace, such as regular glucose monitoring and education programs. Conclusion: The modelling of optimal control of diabetes in the workplace using a control theory approach has significant potential to improve diabetes management and work productivity. By using a mathematical model and a controller to regulate glucose levels, the approach can help individuals with diabetes to achieve optimal health outcomes while minimizing the impact of the condition on their work performance. Further research is needed to validate the model and develop interventions that can be implemented in the workplace.

Keywords: mathematical model, blood, insulin, pancreas, model, glucose

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Authors: Kasra HosseinMostofi, Mohamadamin Oyar Hossein, Reza Mehdizadeh Anvigh

Abstract:

BIM is an innovative concept for the majority of firms operating in industry. BIM offers a new paradigm to design, construct, operate, and maintain a facility. However, even with the most conscientious use, stakeholders can run into trouble during its implementation on a project or within an organization. At times, project stakeholders are unaware of the challenges that they can face with the implementation at the project level or an organizational level. Therefore, the study aimed to identify and compile barriers associated with the BIM implementation at the project and organizational level, as per the literature. Despite the fact that innumerable advantageous involved in exploiting BIM, there are some barriers to implement it properly. These barriers have been proved as impediments for academicians and members of construction team project to take the maximum advantage of its utilization. Although some research has been conducted to identify these barriers regarding BIM implementation in construction industry, more research is needed to be carried out among academicians to identify these barriers in institutions, and most importantly, to make suggestions for eliminating these obstacles.

Keywords: building information modelling, construction, design and construction, designers

Procedia PDF Downloads 146