Search results for: attitudes towards statistics
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 3217

Search results for: attitudes towards statistics

697 Cleaning of Scientific References in Large Patent Databases Using Rule-Based Scoring and Clustering

Authors: Emiel Caron

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Patent databases contain patent related data, organized in a relational data model, and are used to produce various patent statistics. These databases store raw data about scientific references cited by patents. For example, Patstat holds references to tens of millions of scientific journal publications and conference proceedings. These references might be used to connect patent databases with bibliographic databases, e.g. to study to the relation between science, technology, and innovation in various domains. Problematic in such studies is the low data quality of the references, i.e. they are often ambiguous, unstructured, and incomplete. Moreover, a complete bibliographic reference is stored in only one attribute. Therefore, a computerized cleaning and disambiguation method for large patent databases is developed in this work. The method uses rule-based scoring and clustering. The rules are based on bibliographic metadata, retrieved from the raw data by regular expressions, and are transparent and adaptable. The rules in combination with string similarity measures are used to detect pairs of records that are potential duplicates. Due to the scoring, different rules can be combined, to join scientific references, i.e. the rules reinforce each other. The scores are based on expert knowledge and initial method evaluation. After the scoring, pairs of scientific references that are above a certain threshold, are clustered by means of single-linkage clustering algorithm to form connected components. The method is designed to disambiguate all the scientific references in the Patstat database. The performance evaluation of the clustering method, on a large golden set with highly cited papers, shows on average a 99% precision and a 95% recall. The method is therefore accurate but careful, i.e. it weighs precision over recall. Consequently, separate clusters of high precision are sometimes formed, when there is not enough evidence for connecting scientific references, e.g. in the case of missing year and journal information for a reference. The clusters produced by the method can be used to directly link the Patstat database with bibliographic databases as the Web of Science or Scopus.

Keywords: clustering, data cleaning, data disambiguation, data mining, patent analysis, scientometrics

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696 Tracking the Effect of Ibutilide on Amplitude and Frequency of Fibrillatory Intracardiac Electrograms Using the Regression Analysis

Authors: H. Hajimolahoseini, J. Hashemi, D. Redfearn

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Background: Catheter ablation is an effective therapy for symptomatic atrial fibrillation (AF). The intracardiac electrocardiogram (IEGM) collected during this procedure contains precious information that has not been explored to its full capacity. Novel processing techniques allow looking at these recordings from different perspectives which can lead to improved therapeutic approaches. In our previous study, we showed that variation in amplitude measured through Shannon Entropy could be used as an AF recurrence risk stratification factor in patients who received Ibutilide before the electrograms were recorded. The aim of this study is to further investigate the effect of Ibutilide on characteristics of the recorded signals from the left atrium (LA) of a patient with persistent AF before and after administration of the drug. Methods: The IEGMs collected from different intra-atrial sites of 12 patients were studied and compared before and after Ibutilide administration. First, the before and after Ibutilide IEGMs that were recorded within a Euclidian distance of 3 mm in LA were selected as pairs for comparison. For every selected pair of IEGMs, the Probability Distribution Function (PDF) of the amplitude in time domain and magnitude in frequency domain was estimated using the regression analysis. The PDF represents the relative likelihood of a variable falling within a specific range of values. Results: Our observations showed that in time domain, the PDF of amplitudes was fitted to a Gaussian distribution while in frequency domain, it was fitted to a Rayleigh distribution. Our observations also revealed that after Ibutilide administration, the IEGMs would have significantly narrower short-tailed PDFs both in time and frequency domains. Conclusion: This study shows that the PDFs of the IEGMs before and after administration of Ibutilide represents significantly different properties, both in time and frequency domains. Hence, by fitting the PDF of IEGMs in time domain to a Gaussian distribution or in frequency domain to a Rayleigh distribution, the effect of Ibutilide can easily be tracked using the statistics of their PDF (e.g., standard deviation) while this is difficult through the waveform of IEGMs itself.

Keywords: atrial fibrillation, catheter ablation, probability distribution function, time-frequency characteristics

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695 Towards Innovation Performance among University Staff

Authors: Cheng Sim Quah, Sandra Phek Lin Sim

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This study examined how individuals in their respective teams contributed to innovation performance besides defining the term of innovation in their own respective views. This study also identified factors that motivated University staff to contribute to the innovation products. In addition, it examined whether there is a significant relationship between professional training level and the length of service among university staff towards innovation and to what extent do the two variables contributed towards innovative products. The significance of this study is that it revealed the strengths and weaknesses of the university staff when contributing to innovation performance. Stratified-random sampling was employed to determine the samples representing the population of lecturers in the study, involving 123 lecturers in one of the local universities in Malaysia. The method employed to analyze the data is through categorizing into themes for the open-ended questions besides using descriptive and inferential statistics for the quantitative data. This study revealed that two types of definition for the term “innovation” exist among the university staff, namely, creation of new product or new approach to do things as well as value-added creative way to upgrade or improve existing process and service to be more efficient. This study found that the most prominent factor that propel them towards innovation is to improve the product in order to benefit users, followed by self-satisfaction and recognition. This implies that the staff in the organization viewed the creation of innovative products as a process of growth to fulfill the needs of others and also to realize their personal potential. This study also found that there was only a significant relationship between the professional training level and the length of service of 4-6 years among the university staff. The rest of the groups based on the length of service showed that there was no significant relationship with the professional training level towards innovation. Moreover, results of the study on directional measures depicted that the relationship for the length of service of 4 - 6 years with professional training level among the university staff is quite weak. This implies that good organization management lies on the shoulders of the key leaders who enlighten the path to be followed by the staff.

Keywords: innovation, length of service, performance, professional training level, motivation

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694 A Study on the Personality Traits of Students Who Have Chosen Medicine as Their Career

Authors: Khairani Omar, Shalinawati Ramli, Nurul Azmawati Mohamed, Zarini Ismail, Nur Syahrina Rahim, Nurul Hayati Chamhuri

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Choosing a career which matches a student’s personality traits is one of the key factors for future work satisfaction. This is because career satisfaction is at the highest when it is in line with one’s personality strength, values and attitudes. Personality traits play a major role in determining the success of a student in the medical course. In the pre-clinical years, medical theories are being emphasized, thus, conscientious students would perform better than those with lower level of this trait. As the emphasis changes in the clinical years during which patient interaction is important, personality traits which involved interpersonal values become more essential for success. The aim of this study was to determine the personality traits of students who had chosen medicine as their career. It was a cross-sectional study conducted at the Islamic Science University of Malaysia. The respondents consisted of 81 students whose age ranged between 20-21 years old. A set of personality assessment inventory index which has been validated for the local context was used to determine the students’ personality traits. The instrument assessed 15 personality traits namely: aggressive, analytical, autonomy, creativity, extrovert, intellectual, motivation, diversity, resiliency, self-criticism, control, helpful, support, structured and achievement. The scores ranged between 1-100%, and they were categorized into low (1-30%), moderate (40-60%) and high scores (70-100%). The respondents were Year 3 pre-clinical medical students and there were more female students (69%) compared to male students (31%). Majority of them were from middle-income families. Approximately 70% of both parents of the respondents had tertiary education. Majority of the students had high scores in autonomy, creativity, diversity, helpful, structured and achievement. In other words, more than 50% of them scored high (70-100%) in these traits. Scoring high in these traits was beneficial for the medical course. For aggressive trait, 54% of them had moderate scores which is compatible for medicine as this indicated an inclination to being assertive. In the analytical and intellectual components, only 40% and 25% had high scores respectively. These results contradicted the usual expectation of medical students whereby they are expected to be highly analytical and intellectual. It would be an added value if the students had high scores in being extrovert as this reflects on good interpersonal values, however, the students had approximately similar scores in all categories of this trait. Being resilient in the medical school is important as the course is difficult and demanding. The students had good scores in this component in which 46% had high scores while 39% had moderate scores. In conclusion, by understanding their personality traits, strengths and weaknesses, the students will have an opportunity to improve themselves in the areas they lack. This will help them to become better doctors in future.

Keywords: career, medical students, medicine, personality traits

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693 An Assessment on Socio-Economic Impacts of Smallholder Eucalyptus Tree Plantation in the Case of Northwest Ethiopia

Authors: Mersha Tewodros Getnet, Mengistu Ketema, Bamlaku Alemu, Girma Demilew

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The availability of forest products determines the possibilities for forest-based livelihood options. Plantation forest is a widespread economic activity in highland areas of the Amhara regional state, owing primarily to degradation and limited access to natural forests. As a result, tree plantation has become one of the rural livelihood options in the area. Therefore, given the increasing importance of smallholder plantations in highland areas of Amhara Regional States, the aim of this research was to evaluate the extent of smallholder plantations and their socio-economic impact. To address the abovementioned research, a sequential embedded mixed research design was employed. This qualitative and quantitative information was gathered from both primary and secondary sources. Primary data were collected from 385 sample households, which were chosen using a three-stage, multi-stage sampling method based on the Cochran sample size formula. Both descriptive and inferential statistics were used to analyze the data. Smallholder eucalyptus plantations in the study area were discovered to be common, and they are now part of the livelihood portfolio for meeting both household wood consumption and generating cash income. According to the PSM model's ATT results, income from selling farm forest products certainly contributes more to total household income, farm expenditure per cultivated land, and education spending than non-planter households. As a result, the government must strengthen plantation practices by prioritizing specific intervention areas while implementing measures to counteract the plantation's inequality-increasing effect through a variety of means, including progressive taxation.

Keywords: smallholder plantation, Eucalyptus, propensity score matching, average treatment effect and income

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692 Prevalence of Sexually Transmitted Infections in Pregnancy, Preterm Birth, Low Birthweight, and the Importance of Prenatal Care: Data from the 2020 United States Birth Certificate

Authors: Anthony J. Kondracki, Bonzo Reddick, Jennifer L. Barkin

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Background: Many pregnancies in the United States are affected each year with the most common sexually transmitted infections (STIs), including Chlamydia trachomatis (CT), Neisseria gonorrhoeae (NG), and Treponema pallidum (TP, syphilis), and the rate of congenital syphilis has reached a 20-year high. We sought to estimate the prevalence of CT, NG, and TP in pregnancy and the risk of preterm birth (PTB) (<37 weeks gestation) and low birthweight (LBW) (<2500g) deliveries according to utilization of prenatal care (PNC) during the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: This study was based on the 2020 National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) Natality File restricted to singleton births (N=3,512,858). We estimated the prevalence of CT, NG, TP, PTBand LBW across timing and the number of prenatal care (PNC) visits attended. In multivariable logistic regression models, adjusted odds ratios of PTB and LBW were assessed according to STIs and PNC status. E-values, based on effect size estimates and the lower bound of the 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of the association, examined the potential impact of unmeasured confounding. Results: CT (1.8%) was most prevalent in pregnancy, followed by NG (0.3%) and TP (0.1%). The strongest predictors of PTB and LBW were maternal NG (12.2% and 12.1%, respectively), late initiation/no PNC (8.5% and 7.6%, respectively), and ≤10 prenatal visits (13.1% and 10.3%, respectively). The odds of PTB and LBW were 2.5- to 3-fold greater for each STI in women who received ≤10 compared to >10 prenatal visits. E-values demonstrated the minimum strength of potential unmeasured confounding necessary to explain away observed associations. Conclusions: Timely initiation and receipt of recommended number of prenatal visits benefits screening and treatment of all women for STIs, including NG to substantially reduce infant morbidity and mortality related to PTB and LBW among infants born during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Keywords: COVID-19 pandemic, sexually transmitted infections, preterm birth, low birthweight, prenatal care

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691 Factors Affecting the Uptake of Modern Contraception Services in Oyo State, Nigeria

Authors: Folajinmi Oluwasina, Magbagbeola Dairo, Ikeoluwapo Ajayi

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Contraception has proven to be an effective way of controlling fertility and spacing births. Studies have shown that contraception can avert the high-risk pregnancies and consequently reduce maternal deaths up to 32%. Uptake of modern contraception is promoted as a mechanism to address the reproductive health needs of men and women, as well as the crucial challenge of rapid population increase. A cross- sectional descriptive study using a two- stage systematic sampling technique was used to select 530 women of reproductive age out of 20,000 households. Respondents were interviewed using a semi-structured questionnaire. Knowledge was assessed on a 5 point score in which a score of ≤ 2 rated poor while perception was scored on 36 points score in which a score of ≤ 18 was rated low. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, Chi-square test and logistic regression at p< 0.05. There were 530 respondents. Age of respondents was 30.3 ±7.8 years, and 73.0% were married. About 90% had good knowledge of contraception while 60.8% had used contraceptives. The commonest source of information about contraception was mass media (72.8%). Minority (26.1%) obtained husbands approval before using contraceptive while 20.0% had used modern contraceptives before the first birth. Many (54.5%) of the respondents agreed that contraception helps in improving standard of living and 64.7% had good perception about contraception. Factors that hindered effective uptake of contraception services included poor service provider’s attitude (33.3%) and congestion at the service centers (4.5%). Respondents with nonuse of contraceptive before first birth are less likely to subsequently use contraceptives (OR= 0.324, 95% CI= 0.1-0.5). Husband approval of contraceptives use was the major determinant of women’s contraceptive use (OR = 3.4, 95% CI = 1.3-8.7). Respondents who had family planning centers not more than 5 kilometers walking distance to their residence did not significantly use contraception services (41.5%) more than 21.1% of those who had to take means of transportation to the service venues. This study showed that majority of the respondents were knowledgeable and aware of contraception services, but husband’s agreement on the use of modern contraceptives remains poor. Programmes that enhances husbands approval of modern contraception is thus recommended.

Keywords: contraception services, service provider’s attitude, uptake, husbands approval

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690 Compromising of Vacuum Sewerage System in Developing Regions and the Impact on Environmet

Authors: Abdelsalam Elawwad, Mostafa Ragab, Hisham Abdel-Halim

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Leakage in sewerage system can cause groundwater and soil contamination in urban areas, especially in area with a high groundwater table. This is a serious problem in small villages in developing countries that rely on ground water as a source for irrigation and drinking purposes. In the developed countries, the recent trend in areas with low population densities is vacuum sewerage system, which is environmentally safer than conventional gravity system, protecting public health, preventing exfiltration to the ground water, very easily applied in a relatively short time and can cope with a faster expansion of the urbanized areas. The aim of this work is to assess the feasibility of using vacuum sewerage in developing country, such as Egypt. Knowledge of local conditions can determine the most suitable sewer system for a specific region. Technical, environmental and financial comparisons between conventional sewerage system and vacuum sewerage system were held using statistical analysis. Different conditions, such as population densities, geometry of area, and ground water depths were evaluated. Sample comprising of 30 Egyptian villages was selected, where a complete design for conventional sewerage system and vacuum sewerage system was done. Based on this study, it is recommended from the environmental point of view to construct the vacuum sewerage system in such villages with low population densities; however, it is not economic for all cases. From financial point of view, vacuum sewerage system was a good competitor to conventional systems in flat areas and areas with high groundwater table. The local market supplying of the construction equipment especially collection chambers will greatly affect the investment cost. Capacity building and social mobilization will also play a great role in sustainability of this system. At the end, it is noteworthy that environmental sustainability and public health are more important than the financial aspects.

Keywords: ground water, conventional system, vacuum system, statistics, cost, density, terrain

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689 The Impact of Gender Difference on Crop Productivity: The Case of Decha Woreda, Ethiopia

Authors: Getinet Gezahegn Gebre

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The study examined the impact of gender differences on Crop productivity in Decha woreda of south west Kafa zone, located 140 Km from Jimma Town and 460 km south west of Addis Ababa, between Bonga town and Omo River. The specific objectives were to assess the extent to which the agricultural production system is gender oriented, to examine access and control over productive resources, and to estimate men’s and women’s productivity in agriculture. Cross-sectional data collected from a total of 140 respondents were used in this study, whereby 65 were female headed and 75 were male headed households. The data were analyzed by using Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS). Descriptive statistics such as frequency, mean, percentage, t-test, and chi-square were used to summarize and compare the information between the two groups. Moreover, Cobb-Douglas(CD) production function was to estimate the productivity difference in agriculture between male and female headed households. Results of the study showed that male headed households (MHH) own more productive resources such as land, livestock, labor, and other agricultural inputs as compared to female headed households (FHH). Moreover, the estimate of CD production function shows that livestock, herbicide use, land size, and male labor were statistically significant for MHH, while livestock, land size, herbicides use and female labor were significant variables for FHH. The crop productivity difference between MHH and FHH was about 68.83% in the study area. However, if FHH had equal access to the inputs as MHH, the gross value of the output would be higher by 23.58% for FHH. This might suggest that FHH would be more productive than MHH if they had equal access to inputs as MHH. Based on the results obtained, the following policy implication can be drawn: accessing FHH to inputs that increase the productivity of agriculture, such as herbicides, livestock, and male labor; increasing the productivity of land; and introducing technologies that reduce the time and energy of women, especially for inset processing.

Keywords: gender difference, crop, productivity, efficiency

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688 Afghan Women’s Perceptions on Domestic Violence and Child Protection in Finland

Authors: Laleh Golamrej Eliasi

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Finland is the second most violent country for women in the European Union (EU). 47% of women in Finland claimed to have experienced domestic violence against women (DVAW), compared to an average of 33% in the EU. Although the statistics in Finland are transparent, to the author’s best knowledge, there are no statisticsonDV by nationality in Finland. On the other hand, being a Muslim woman in a non-Muslim-majority country represents a position of double vulnerability to violence. There are 10404 Afghan refugees in Finland who are Muslim. Barriers such as unfamiliarity with support services, fear of the police, racism, language, economic and practical dependence, social isolation, and family commitments all lead to a lack of reporting of DVAW among migrants. Although witnessing and experiencing DV have devastating effects on women’s and children’s health and well-being, there is a lack of studies about DVAW among Afghan families in Finland. To fill this knowledge gap, Afghan women living in Finland are selected as the target group to assess their views on DVAW and child protection. This study is implemented in the socio-ecological approach framework to assess the impacts of individual characteristics, interpersonal relationships, community, and society components on DVAW in Afghan families. Interviews with Afghan women and content analysis are used to find out participants' views on DVAW, its risk factors, and approaches and methods to improve protection for women and children. Main purpose is to obtain information about participants' views on the subject. The findings can be used to improve culturally safe social work knowledge and practices with a bottom-up approach to reduce DV and increase child protection. Therefore, this research can have important effects on the sustainable development of services and supports the welfare and inclusion of immigrant families. The expected results will contribute to sustainable gender equality, which is in line with the fifth goal of the Sustainable Development Goals.

Keywords: domestic violence, immigrant women, immigrant child protection, social work

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687 Towards a Comprehensive Framework on Civic Competence Development of Teachers: A Systematic Review of Literature

Authors: Emilie Vandevelde, Ellen Claes

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This study aims to develop a comprehensive model for the civic socialization process of teachers. Citizenship has become one of the main objectives for the European education systems. It is expected that teachers are well prepared and equipped with the necessary knowledge, skills, and attitudes to also engage students in democratic citizenship. While a lot is known about young peoples’ civic competence development and how schools and teachers (don’t) support this process, less is known about how teachers themselves engage with (the teaching of) civics. Other than the civic socialization process of young adolescents that focuses on personal competence development, the civic socialization process of teachers includes the development of professional, civic competences. These professional competences make that they are able to prepare pupils to carry out their civic responsibilities in thoughtful ways. Existing models for the civic socialization process of young adolescents do not take this dual purpose into account. Based on these observations, this paper will investigate (1)What personal and professional civic competences teachers need to effectively teach civic education and (2) how teachers acquire these personal and professional civic competences. To answer the first research question, a systematic review of literature of existing civic education frameworks was carried out and linked to literature on teacher training. The second research question was addressed by adapting the Octagon model, developed by the International Association for the Evaluation of Educational Achievement (IEA), to the context of teachers. This was done by carrying out a systematic review of the recent literature linking three theoretical topics involved in teachers’ civic competence development: theories about the civic socialization process of young adolescents, Schulmans (1987) theoretical assumptions on pedagogical content knowledge (PCK), and Nogueira & Moreira’s (2012) framework for civic education teachers’ knowledge and literature on teachers’ professional development. This resulted in a comprehensive conceptual framework describing the personal and professional civic competences of civic education teachers. In addition, this framework is linked to the OctagonT model: a model that describes the processes through which teachers acquire these personal and professional civic competences. This model recognizes that teachers’ civic socialization process is influenced by interconnected variables located at different levels in a multi-level structure (the individual teacher (e.g., civic beliefs), everyday contacts (e.g., teacher educators, the intended, informal and hidden curriculum of the teacher training program, internship contacts, participation opportunities in teacher training, etc.) and the influence of the national educational context (e.g., vision on civic education)). Furthermore, implications for teacher education programs are described.

Keywords: civic education, civic competences, civic socialization, octagon model, teacher training

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686 Area Exclosure as a Government Strategy to Restore Woody Plant Species Diversity: Case Study in Southern Ethiopia

Authors: Tsegaw Abebe, Temesgen Abebe

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Land degradation is one of a serious environmental challenge in Ethiopia and is one of the major underlying causes for declining agricultural productivity. The Ethiopia government realized the significance of environmental restoration specifically on deforested and degraded land after the 1973 and 1984/85 major famines that struck the country. Among the various conservation strategies, the establishment of area exclosures have been regarded as an effective response to halt and reverse the problems of land degradation. There are limited studies in Ethiopia dealing how the conversion of free grazing lands and degraded lands by closures increase biomass accumulation. However, these studies are not sufficient to conclude about the strength of area closures to restore degraded vegetations at the diverse agro-ecological condition. The overall objective of this study was, therefore, to assess and evaluate the usefulness of area closure technique in enhancing rehabilitation of degraded ecosystem and thereby increase the natural capital in the study site (southern Ethiopia). Woody plant species were collected from area exclosure for eight year and adjacent degraded land with similar landscape positions using systematic sampling plot design technique. Woody species diversity was determined by Shannon diversity. Comparative assessment result of woody plant species analysis showed that the density of woody species in the exclosure and degraded site were 778 and 222 individuals per hectare, respectively. A total of 16 woody species, representing 12 families were recorded in the study site. Out of the 12 families, all were recorded in the exclosure while 5 were recorded in the degraded site. Out of the 16 species, 15 were recorded in the exclosure while six were in the degraded site. A total of 10 species were recorded in the exclosure, which were absent in the degraded site. Similarly, one species was recorded in the degraded site which was not present in the exclosure. The results showed that protecting of degraded site from human and animal disturbances promotes woody plant species regenerations and productivity Apart from increasing woody plant species, the local communities have benefited from the exclosure in the form of both products (grass harvesting) and services (ecological). Due to this reason the local communities have positive attitudes and contribute a lot for the success of enclosures in the study site. The present study clearly showed that area closure interventions should be oriented towards managing and improving the productivity of the degraded land, in such a way that both the need for conservation of biodiversity and environmental sustainability, and the demands of the local people for biomass resources can be achieved.

Keywords: degraded land, exclosure, land restoration, woody vegetation

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685 Green Economy and Environmental Protection Economic Policy Challenges in Georgia

Authors: Gulnaz Erkomaishvili

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Introduction. One of the most important issues of state economic policy in the 21st century is the problem of environmental protection. The Georgian government considers the green economy as one of the most important means of sustainable economic development and takes the initiative to implement voluntary measures to promote sustainable development. In this context, it is important to promote the development of ecosystem services, clean production, environmental education and green jobs.The development of the green economy significantly reduces the inefficient use of natural resources, waste generation, emissions into the atmosphere and the discharge of untreated water into bodies of water.It is, therefore, an important instrument in the environmental orientation of sustainable development. Objectives.The aim of the paper is to analyze the current status of the green economy in Georgia and identify effective ways to improve the environmental, economic policy of sustainable development. Methodologies: This paper uses general and specific methods, in particular, analysis, synthesis, induction, deduction, scientific abstraction, comparative and statistical methods, as well as experts’ evaluation. bibliographic research of scientific works and reports of organizations was conducted; Publications of the National Statistics Office of Georgia are used to determine the regularity between analytical and statistical estimations. Also, theoretical and applied research of international organizations and scientist-economists are used. Contributions: The country should implement such an economic policy that ensures the transition to a green economy, in particular, revising water, air and waste laws, strengthening existing environmental management tools and introcing new tools (including economic tools). Perfecting the regulatory legal framework of the environmental impact assessment system, which includes the harmonization of Georgian legislation with the requirements of the European Union. To ensure the protection and rational use of Georgia's forests, emphasis should be placed on sustainable forestry, protection and restoration of forests.

Keywords: green economy, environmental protection, environmental protection economic policy, environmental protection policy challanges

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684 Indian Premier League (IPL) Score Prediction: Comparative Analysis of Machine Learning Models

Authors: Rohini Hariharan, Yazhini R, Bhamidipati Naga Shrikarti

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In the realm of cricket, particularly within the context of the Indian Premier League (IPL), the ability to predict team scores accurately holds significant importance for both cricket enthusiasts and stakeholders alike. This paper presents a comprehensive study on IPL score prediction utilizing various machine learning algorithms, including Support Vector Machines (SVM), XGBoost, Multiple Regression, Linear Regression, K-nearest neighbors (KNN), and Random Forest. Through meticulous data preprocessing, feature engineering, and model selection, we aimed to develop a robust predictive framework capable of forecasting team scores with high precision. Our experimentation involved the analysis of historical IPL match data encompassing diverse match and player statistics. Leveraging this data, we employed state-of-the-art machine learning techniques to train and evaluate the performance of each model. Notably, Multiple Regression emerged as the top-performing algorithm, achieving an impressive accuracy of 77.19% and a precision of 54.05% (within a threshold of +/- 10 runs). This research contributes to the advancement of sports analytics by demonstrating the efficacy of machine learning in predicting IPL team scores. The findings underscore the potential of advanced predictive modeling techniques to provide valuable insights for cricket enthusiasts, team management, and betting agencies. Additionally, this study serves as a benchmark for future research endeavors aimed at enhancing the accuracy and interpretability of IPL score prediction models.

Keywords: indian premier league (IPL), cricket, score prediction, machine learning, support vector machines (SVM), xgboost, multiple regression, linear regression, k-nearest neighbors (KNN), random forest, sports analytics

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683 Approaching Sexual Violence Against People with Disabilities in Colombia from a Qualitative Perspective

Authors: Mariana Calderón, Rocío Murad, Natalia Acevedo, Laura León, Juliana Fonseca, Maria de los Angeles Balaguera Villa

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Recently, different countries and international organizations have put on their agenda the elimination of violence against people with disabilities. This research aims to evaluate the social dimensions of sexual violence against people with disabilities, particularly those with psychosocial and cognitive, in Colombia. Results reveal that 55% of people with disabilities that are survivors of sexual violence are younger than 29 years and 20,4 are people with cognitive and psychosocial disabilities. Colombian regions with better social positions presented more cases of sexual violence against people with disabilities. There were found access barriers for health, education and employment among this population, and there was also found poor data quality. Despite Colombia having an important normative framework aimed at preventing and attending to gender-based violence, it does not take into account people with disabilities specific needs. Additionally, it was found an insufficient implementation and appropriation of these norms, negative attitudes, and in general, a lack of service adaptation according to the needs, identities and circumstances of people with disabilities. Furthermore, among the factors that are exposing people with disabilities to sexual violence, it was found that family members tend to be the main aggressors, there are deep gaps in the sex education received by people with disabilities, imaginaries and perceptions about their sexuality are both hypersexualizing and presenting them as asexual. On the other hand, among protective factors, there were found body self-knowledge and conscience, acknowledgment of their sexuality and their sexual and reproductive rights and access to sex ed. Although during the last few years, there has occurred a positive change toward social inclusion of people with disabilities, specifically through their role in the political agenda and the recognition of their rights. More work is needed in order to guarantee their sexual and reproductive rights, particularly for persons with psychosocial and cognitive disabilities. This research results showed the importance of transforming persisting negative imaginaries about their sexuality and also enforcing and promoting their autonomy. In this sense, it is important to acknowledge gaps and barriers faced by them and create strategies to encourage their social inclusion through education, employment, and skill development. Nevertheless, it is necessary to keep contributing new evidence of the social determinants of health that are influencing the occurrence of sexual violence. This research understands sexual violence against people with disabilities in a multidimensional manner and offers the following recommendations: 1- To foment public sensitization and understanding of disabilities. 2- To increase parents, caregivers and officers’ commitment to the prevention and reduction of sexual violence. 3- To focus on the needs, identities and circumstances of people with disabilities.

Keywords: disabilities, sexual and reproductive rights, sexual violence, prevention

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682 Community-Based Reference Interval of Selected Clinical Chemistry Parameters Among Apparently Healthy Adolescents in Mekelle City, Tigrai, Northern Ethiopia

Authors: Getachew Belay Kassahun

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Background: Locally established clinical laboratory reference intervals (RIs) are required to interpret laboratory test results for screening, diagnosis, and prognosis. The objective of this study was to establish a reference interval of clinical chemistry parameters among apparently healthy adolescents aged between 12 and 17 years in Mekelle, Tigrai, in the northern part of Ethiopia. Methods: Community-based cross-sectional study was employed from December 2018 to March 2019 in Mekelle City among 172 males and 172 females based on a Multi-stage sampling technique. Blood samples were tested for Fasting blood sugar (FBS), alanine amino transferase (ALT), aspartate aminotransferase (AST), alkaline phosphatase (ALP), Creatinine, urea, total protein, albumin (ALB), direct and indirect bilirubin (BIL.D and BIL.T) using 25 Bio system clinical chemistry analyzer. Results were analyzed using SPSS version 23 software and based on the Clinical Laboratory Standard Institute (CLSI)/ International Federation of Clinical Chemistry (IFCC) C 28-A3 Guideline which defines the reference interval as the 95% central range of 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles. Mann Whitney U test, descriptive statistics and box and whisker were statistical tools used for analysis. Results: This study observed statistically significant differences between males and females in ALP, ALT, AST, Urea and Creatinine Reference intervals. The established reference intervals for males and females, respectively, were: ALP (U/L) 79.48-492.12 versus 63.56-253.34, ALT (U/L) 4.54-23.69 versus 5.1-20.03, AST 15.7- 39.1 versus 13.3- 28.5, Urea (mg/dL) 9.33-24.99 versus 7.43-23.11, and Creatinine (mg/dL) 0.393-0.957 versus 0.301-0.846. The combined RIs for Total Protein (g/dL) were 6.08-7.85, ALB (g/dL) 4.42-5.46, FBS(mg/dL) 65-110, BIL.D (mg/dL) 0.033-0.532, and BIL.T (mg/dL) 0.106-0.812. Conclusions: The result showed a marked difference between sex and company-derived values for selected clinical chemistry parameters. Thus, the use of age and sex-specific locally established reference intervals for clinical chemistry parameters is recommended.

Keywords: reference interval, adolescent, clinical chemistry, Ethiopia

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681 Schooling Competent Citizens: A Normative Analysis of Citizenship Education Policy in Europe

Authors: M. Joris, O. Agirdag

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For over two decades, calls for citizenship education (CE) have been rising to the top of educational policy agendas in Europe. The main motive for the current treatment of CE as a key topic is a sense of crisis: social and political threats that go beyond the reach of nations and require action at the international and European level. On the one hand, this context has triggered abundant attention to the promotion of citizenship through education. On the other hand, the ubiquity of citizenship and education in policy language is paired with a self-evident manner of using the concepts: the more we call for citizenship in and through education, the less the concepts seem to be made explicit or be defined. Research and reflection on the normativity of the concepts of citizenship and CE in Europe are scarce. Departing from the idea that policies are always normative, this study, therefore, investigates the normativity of the current concepts of citizenship and education, in ’key’ European CE policy texts. The study consists of a content analysis of these texts, based on a normative framework developed around the different dimensions of citizenship as status, identity, virtues and agency. The framework also describes the purposes of education and its learning processes, content and practices, based on the assumption that good education always includes, next to qualification and socialisation, a purpose of emancipation: of helping young people become autonomous and independent subjects. The analysis shows how contemporary European citizenship is conceptualised around the dimension of competences. This focus on competences is also visible in the normative framing of education and its relationship to citizenship in the texts: CE should help young people learn how to become good citizens by acquiring a toolkit of competences, consisting of knowledge, skills, values and attitudes that can be predetermined, measured and evaluated. This ideal of citizenship-as-competence entails a focus on the educational purposes of socialisation and qualification. Current policy texts thus seem to leave out the educational purpose of emancipating young people, allowing them to take on citizenship as something to which they can determine their own relation and position. It is, however, this purpose of CE that seems increasingly important in our current context. Young people are stepping out of school and onto the streets by the thousands in Belgium and throughout Europe, protesting for more and better environmental policies. They are making use of existing modes of citizenship, exactly to indicate to policymakers how these are falling short and are claiming their right and entitlement to a future that established practices of politics are putting at risk. The importance of citizenship education might then lie, now more than ever, not in the fact that it would prepare young people for competent citizenship, but in offering them a possibility, an emancipatory experience of being able to do something new. It seems that this is what we might want to expect from the school if we want it to educate our truly future citizens.

Keywords: citizenship education, normativity, policy, purposes of education

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680 Modelling Causal Effects from Complex Longitudinal Data via Point Effects of Treatments

Authors: Xiaoqin Wang, Li Yin

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Background and purpose: In many practices, one estimates causal effects arising from a complex stochastic process, where a sequence of treatments are assigned to influence a certain outcome of interest, and there exist time-dependent covariates between treatments. When covariates are plentiful and/or continuous, statistical modeling is needed to reduce the huge dimensionality of the problem and allow for the estimation of causal effects. Recently, Wang and Yin (Annals of statistics, 2020) derived a new general formula, which expresses these causal effects in terms of the point effects of treatments in single-point causal inference. As a result, it is possible to conduct the modeling via point effects. The purpose of the work is to study the modeling of these causal effects via point effects. Challenges and solutions: The time-dependent covariates often have influences from earlier treatments as well as on subsequent treatments. Consequently, the standard parameters – i.e., the mean of the outcome given all treatments and covariates-- are essentially all different (null paradox). Furthermore, the dimension of the parameters is huge (curse of dimensionality). Therefore, it can be difficult to conduct the modeling in terms of standard parameters. Instead of standard parameters, we have use point effects of treatments to develop likelihood-based parametric approach to the modeling of these causal effects and are able to model the causal effects of a sequence of treatments by modeling a small number of point effects of individual treatment Achievements: We are able to conduct the modeling of the causal effects from a sequence of treatments in the familiar framework of single-point causal inference. The simulation shows that our method achieves not only an unbiased estimate for the causal effect but also the nominal level of type I error and a low level of type II error for the hypothesis testing. We have applied this method to a longitudinal study of COVID-19 mortality among Scandinavian countries and found that the Swedish approach performed far worse than the other countries' approach for COVID-19 mortality and the poor performance was largely due to its early measure during the initial period of the pandemic.

Keywords: causal effect, point effect, statistical modelling, sequential causal inference

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679 The Attitudinal Effects of Dental Hygiene Students When Changing Conventional Practices of Preventive Therapy in the Dental Hygiene Curriculum

Authors: Shawna Staud, Mary Kaye Scaramucci

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Objective: Rubber cup polishing has been a traditional method of preventative therapy in dental hygiene treatment. Newer methods such as air polishing have changed the way dental hygiene care is provided, yet this technique has not been embraced by students in the program nor by practitioners in the workforce. Students entering the workforce tend to follow office protocol and are limited in confidence to introduce technologies learned in the curriculum. This project was designed to help students gain confidence in newer skills and encourage private practice settings to adopt newer technologies for patient care. Our program recently introduced air polishing earlier in the program before the rubber cup technique to determine if students would embrace the technology to become leading-edge professionals when they enter the marketplace. Methods: The class of 2022 was taught the traditional method of polishing in the first-year curriculum and air polishing in the second-year curriculum. The class of 2023 will be taught the air polishing method in the first-year curriculum and the traditional method of polishing in the second-year curriculum. Pre- and post-graduation survey data will be collected from both cohorts. Descriptive statistics and pre and post-paired t-tests with alpha set at .05 to compare pre and post-survey results will be used to assess data. Results: This study is currently in progress, with a completion date of October 2023. The class of 2022 completed the pre-graduation survey in the spring of 2022. The post-gradation survey will be sent out in October 2022. The class of 2023 cohort will be surveyed in the spring of 2023 and October 2023. Conclusion: Our hypothesis is students who are taught air polishing first will be more inclined to adopt that skill in private practice, thereby embracing newer technology and improving oral health care.

Keywords: luggage handling system at world’s largest pilgrimage center

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678 Integration of Educational Data Mining Models to a Web-Based Support System for Predicting High School Student Performance

Authors: Sokkhey Phauk, Takeo Okazaki

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The challenging task in educational institutions is to maximize the high performance of students and minimize the failure rate of poor-performing students. An effective method to leverage this task is to know student learning patterns with highly influencing factors and get an early prediction of student learning outcomes at the timely stage for setting up policies for improvement. Educational data mining (EDM) is an emerging disciplinary field of data mining, statistics, and machine learning concerned with extracting useful knowledge and information for the sake of improvement and development in the education environment. The study is of this work is to propose techniques in EDM and integrate it into a web-based system for predicting poor-performing students. A comparative study of prediction models is conducted. Subsequently, high performing models are developed to get higher performance. The hybrid random forest (Hybrid RF) produces the most successful classification. For the context of intervention and improving the learning outcomes, a feature selection method MICHI, which is the combination of mutual information (MI) and chi-square (CHI) algorithms based on the ranked feature scores, is introduced to select a dominant feature set that improves the performance of prediction and uses the obtained dominant set as information for intervention. By using the proposed techniques of EDM, an academic performance prediction system (APPS) is subsequently developed for educational stockholders to get an early prediction of student learning outcomes for timely intervention. Experimental outcomes and evaluation surveys report the effectiveness and usefulness of the developed system. The system is used to help educational stakeholders and related individuals for intervening and improving student performance.

Keywords: academic performance prediction system, educational data mining, dominant factors, feature selection method, prediction model, student performance

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677 Training 'Green Ambassadors' in the Community-Action Learning Course

Authors: Friman Hen, Banner Ifaa, Shalom-Tuchin Bosmat, Einav Yulia

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The action learning course is an academic course which involves academic learning and social activities. The courses deal with processes and social challenges, reveal different ideologies, and develop critical thinking and pragmatic ideas. Students receive course credits and a grade for being part of such courses. Participating students enroll in courses that involve action and activities to engage in the experiential learning process, thereby creating a dialogue and cross-fertilization between being taught in the classroom and experiencing the reality in the real world. A learning experience includes meeting with social organizations, institutions, and state authorities and carrying out practical work with diverse populations. Through experience, students strengthen their academic skills, formulate ethical attitudes toward reality, develop professional and civilian perspectives, and realize how they can influence their surrounding in the present and the hereafter. Under the guidance and supervision of Dr. Hen Friman, H.I.T. has built an innovative course that combines action and activities to increase the awareness and accessibility of the community in an experiential way. The end goal is to create Green Ambassadors—children with a high level of environmental awareness. This course is divided into two parts. The first part, focused on frontal teaching, delivers knowledge from extensive environmental fields to students. These areas include introduction to ecology, the process of electricity generation, air pollution, renewable energy, water economy, waste and recycling, and energy efficiency (first stage). In addition to the professional content in the environment field, students learn the method of effective and experiential teaching to younger learners (4 to 8 years old). With the attainment of knowledge, students are divided into operating groups. The second part of the course shows how the theory becomes practical and concrete. At this stage, students are asked to introduce to the first- and second-graders of ‘Revivim’ School in Holon a lesson of 90 minutes focused on presenting the issues and their importance during the course (second stage). This course is the beginning of a paradigm shift regarding energy usage in the modern society in Israel. The objective of the course is to expand worldwide and train the first and second-graders, and even pre-schoolers, in a wide scope to increase population awareness rate, both in Israel and all over the world, for a green future.

Keywords: air pollution, green ambassador, recycling, renewable energy

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676 Audio-Lingual Method and the English-Speaking Proficiency of Grade 11 Students

Authors: Marthadale Acibo Semacio

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Speaking skill is a crucial part of English language teaching and learning. This actually shows the great importance of this skill in English language classes. Through speaking, ideas and thoughts are shared with other people, and a smooth interaction between people takes place. The study examined the levels of speaking proficiency of the control and experimental groups on pronunciation, grammatical accuracy, and fluency. As a quasi-experimental study, it also determined the presence or absence of significant changes in their speaking proficiency levels in terms of pronouncing the words correctly, the accuracy of grammar and fluency of a language given the two methods to the groups of students in the English language, using the traditional and audio-lingual methods. Descriptive and inferential statistics were employed according to the stated specific problems. The study employed a video presentation with prior information about it. In the video, the teacher acts as model one, giving instructions on what is going to be done, and then the students will perform the activity. The students were paired purposively based on their learning capabilities. Observing proper ethics, their performance was audio recorded to help the researcher assess the learner using the modified speaking rubric. The study revealed that those under the traditional method were more fluent than those in the audio-lingual method. With respect to the way in which each method deals with the feelings of the student, the audio-lingual one fails to provide a principle that would relate to this area and follows the assumption that the intrinsic motivation of the students to learn the target language will spring from their interest in the structure of the language. However, the speaking proficiency levels of the students were remarkably reinforced in reading different words through the aid of aural media with their teachers. The study concluded that using an audio-lingual method of teaching is not a stand-alone method but only an aid of the teacher in helping the students improve their speaking proficiency in the English Language. Hence, audio-lingual approach is encouraged to be used in teaching English language, on top of the chalk-talk or traditional method, to improve the speaking proficiency of students.

Keywords: audio-lingual, speaking, grammar, pronunciation, accuracy, fluency, proficiency

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675 Comparative Evaluation of Seropositivity and Patterns Distribution Rates of the Anti-Nuclear Antibodies in the Diagnosis of Four Different Autoimmune Collagen Tissue Diseases

Authors: Recep Kesli, Onur Turkyilmaz, Cengiz Demir

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Objective: Autoimmune collagen diseases occur with the immune reactions against the body’s own cell or tissues which cause inflammation and damage the tissues and organs. In this study, it was aimed to compare seropositivity rates and patterns of the anti-nuclear antibodies (ANA) in the diagnosis of four different autoimmune collagen tissue diseases (Rheumatoid Arthritis-RA, Systemic Lupus Erythematous-SLE, Scleroderma-SSc and Sjogren Syndrome-SS) with each other. Methods: One hundred eighty-eight patients applied to different clinics in Afyon Kocatepe University ANS Practice and Research Hospital between 11.07.2014 and 14.07.2015 that thought the different collagen disease such as RA, SLE, SSc and SS have participated in the study retrospectively. All the data obtained from the patients participated in the study were evaluated according to the included criteria. The historical archives belonging to the patients have been screened, assessed in terms of ANA positivity. The obtained data was analysed by using the descriptive statistics; chi-squared, Fischer's exact test. The evaluations were performed by SPSS 20.0 version and p < 0.05 level was considered as significant. Results: Distribution rates of the totally one hundred eighty-eight patients according to the diagnosis were found as follows: 82 (43.6%) were RA, 38 (20.2%) were SLE, 22 (11.7%) were SSc, and 46 (24.5%) were SS. Distribution of ANA positivity rates according to the collagen tissue diseases were found as follows; for RA were 54 (65,9 %), for SLE were 36 (94,7 %), for SSc were 18 (81,8 %), and for SS were 43 (93,5 %). Rheumatoid arthritis should be evaluated and classified as a different class among all the other investigated three autoimmune illnesses. ANA positivity rates were found as differently higher (91.5 %) in the SLE, SSc, and SS, from the RA (65.9 %). Differences at ANA positivity rates for RA and the other three diseases were found as statistically significant (p=0.015). Conclusions: Systemic autoimmune illnesses show broad spectrum. ANA positivity was found as an important predictor marker in the diagnosis of the rheumatologic illnesses. ANA positivity should be evaluated as more valuable and sensitive a predictor diagnostic marker in the laboratory findings of the SLE, SSc, and SS according to RA.

Keywords: antinuclear antibody (ANA), rheumatoid arthritis, scleroderma, Sjogren syndrome, systemic lupus Erythemotosus

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674 Discourse Analysis: Where Cognition Meets Communication

Authors: Iryna Biskub

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The interdisciplinary approach to modern linguistic studies is exemplified by the merge of various research methods, which sometimes causes complications related to the verification of the research results. This methodological confusion can be resolved by means of creating new techniques of linguistic analysis combining several scientific paradigms. Modern linguistics has developed really productive and efficient methods for the investigation of cognitive and communicative phenomena of which language is the central issue. In the field of discourse studies, one of the best examples of research methods is the method of Critical Discourse Analysis (CDA). CDA can be viewed both as a method of investigation, as well as a critical multidisciplinary perspective. In CDA the position of the scholar is crucial from the point of view exemplifying his or her social and political convictions. The generally accepted approach to obtaining scientifically reliable results is to use a special well-defined scientific method for researching special types of language phenomena: cognitive methods applied to the exploration of cognitive aspects of language, whereas communicative methods are thought to be relevant only for the investigation of communicative nature of language. In the recent decades discourse as a sociocultural phenomenon has been the focus of careful linguistic research. The very concept of discourse represents an integral unity of cognitive and communicative aspects of human verbal activity. Since a human being is never able to discriminate between cognitive and communicative planes of discourse communication, it doesn’t make much sense to apply cognitive and communicative methods of research taken in isolation. It is possible to modify the classical CDA procedure by means of mapping human cognitive procedures onto the strategic communicative planning of discourse communication. The analysis of the electronic petition 'Block Donald J Trump from UK entry. The signatories believe Donald J Trump should be banned from UK entry' (584, 459 signatures) and the parliamentary debates on it has demonstrated the ability to map cognitive and communicative levels in the following way: the strategy of discourse modeling (communicative level) overlaps with the extraction of semantic macrostructures (cognitive level); the strategy of discourse management overlaps with the analysis of local meanings in discourse communication; the strategy of cognitive monitoring of the discourse overlaps with the formation of attitudes and ideologies at the cognitive level. Thus, the experimental data have shown that it is possible to develop a new complex methodology of discourse analysis, where cognition would meet communication, both metaphorically and literally. The same approach may appear to be productive for the creation of computational models of human-computer interaction, where the automatic generation of a particular type of a discourse could be based on the rules of strategic planning involving cognitive models of CDA.

Keywords: cognition, communication, discourse, strategy

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673 Economic Life of Iranians on Instagram and the Disturbance in Politics

Authors: Mohammad Zaeimzade

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The development of communication technologies is clearly and rapidly moving towards reducing the distance between the virtual and real worlds. Of course, living in a two-spatial or two-globalized world or any other interpretation that means mixing real and virtual life is still relevant and debatable. In the present age of communication, where social networks have transformed the message equation and turned the audience out of passivity and turned into a user. Platforms have penetrated widely in various aspects of human life, from culture and education and economy. Among the messengers, Instagram, which is one of the most extensive image-based interactive networks, plays a significant role in the new economic life. It doesn't need much explanation that the era of thinking of every messenger as a non-insulating conductor that is just a neutral load has passed. Every messenger has its own economic, political and of course security background, Instagram is no exception to this rule and of course it leaves its effects in bio-economics as well. Iran, as the 19th largest economy in the world, has not been unaffected by new platforms, including Instagram, and their consequences in the economy. Generally, in the policy-making space, there are two simple and inflexible pessimistic or optimistic views on this issue, and each of the holders of these views usually have their own one-dimensional policy recommendations regarding how to deal with Instagram. Prescriptions that are usually very different and sometimes contradictory. In this article, we show that this confusion of policymakers is the result of not accurately describing the reality of its effect, and the reason for this inaccurate description is the existence of a conflict of interests in the eyes of describers and researchers. In this article, we first take a look at the main indicators of the Iranian economy, estimate the role of the digital economy in Iran's economic growth, then study the conflicting descriptions of the Instagram-based digital economy, the statistics that show the tolerance of economic users of Instagram in Iran. 300 thousand to 9 million have been estimated. Finally, we take a look at the government's actions in this matter, especially in the context of street riots in October and November 2022. And we suggest an intermediate idea.

Keywords: digital economy, instagram, conflict of interest, social networks

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672 Implementing a Structured, yet Flexible Tool for Critical Information Handover

Authors: Racheli Magnezi, Inbal Gazit, Michal Rassin, Joseph Barr, Orna Tal

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An effective process for transmitting patient critical information is essential for patient safety and for improving communication among healthcare staff. Previous studies have discussed handover tools such as SBAR (Situation, Background, Assessment, Recommendation) or SOFI (Short Observational Framework for Inspection). Yet, these formats lack flexibility, and require special training. In addition, nurses and physicians have different procedures for handing over information. The objectives of this study were to establish a universal, structured tool for handover, for both physicians and nurses, based on parameters that were defined as ‘important’ and ‘appropriate’ by the medical team, and to implement this tool in various hospital departments, with flexibility for each ward. A questionnaire, based on established procedures and on the literature, was developed to assess attitudes towards the most important information for effective handover between shifts (Cronbach's alpha 0.78). It was distributed to 150 senior physicians and nurses in 62 departments. Among senior medical staff, 12 physicians and 66 nurses responded to the questionnaire (52% response rate). Based on the responses, a handover form suitable for all hospital departments was designed and implemented. Important information for all staff included: Patient demographics (full name and age); Health information (diagnosis or patient complaint, changes in hemodynamic status, new medical treatment or equipment required); and Social Information (suspicion of violence, mental or behavioral changes, and guardianship). Additional information relevant to each unit included treatment provided, laboratory or imaging required, and change in scheduled surgery in surgical departments. ICU required information on background illnesses, Pediatrics required information on diet and food provided and Obstetrics required the number of days after cesarean section. Based on the model described, a flexible tool was developed that enables handover of both common and unique information. In addition, it includes general logistic information that must be transmitted to the next shift, such as planned disruptions in service or operations, staff training, etc. Development of a simple, clear, comprehensive, universal, yet flexible tool designed for all medical staff for transmitting critical information between shifts was challenging. Physicians and nurses found it useful and it was widely implemented. Ongoing research is needed to examine the efficiency of this tool, and whether the enthusiasm that accompanied its initial use is maintained.

Keywords: handover, nurses, hospital, critical information

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671 Spatiotemporal Variability in Rainfall Trends over Sinai Peninsula Using Nonparametric Methods and Discrete Wavelet Transforms

Authors: Mosaad Khadr

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Knowledge of the temporal and spatial variability of rainfall trends has been of great concern for efficient water resource planning, management. In this study annual, seasonal and monthly rainfall trends over the Sinai Peninsula were analyzed by using absolute homogeneity tests, nonparametric Mann–Kendall (MK) test and Sen’s slope estimator methods. The homogeneity of rainfall time-series was examined using four absolute homogeneity tests namely, the Pettitt test, standard normal homogeneity test, Buishand range test, and von Neumann ratio test. Further, the sequential change in the trend of annual and seasonal rainfalls is conducted using sequential MK (SQMK) method. Then the trend analysis based on discrete wavelet transform technique (DWT) in conjunction with SQMK method is performed. The spatial patterns of the detected rainfall trends were investigated using a geostatistical and deterministic spatial interpolation technique. The results achieved from the Mann–Kendall test to the data series (using the 5% significance level) highlighted that rainfall was generally decreasing in January, February, March, November, December, wet season, and annual rainfall. A significant decreasing trend in the winter and annual rainfall with significant levels were inferred based on the Mann-Kendall rank statistics and linear trend. Further, the discrete wavelet transform (DWT) analysis reveal that in general, intra- and inter-annual events (up to 4 years) are more influential in affecting the observed trends. The nature of the trend captured by both methods is similar for all of the cases. On the basis of spatial trend analysis, significant rainfall decreases were also noted in the investigated stations. Overall, significant downward trends in winter and annual rainfall over the Sinai Peninsula was observed during the study period.

Keywords: trend analysis, rainfall, Mann–Kendall test, discrete wavelet transform, Sinai Peninsula

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670 A Profile of Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest in ‘Amang’ Rodriguez Memorial Medical Center: A Prospective Cohort Study

Authors: Donna Erika E. De Jesus

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Introduction: Cardiac arrest occurs when abrupt cessation of cardiac function results in loss of effective circulation and complete cardiovascular collapse. For every minute of cardiac arrest without early intervention (cardiopulmonary resuscitation [CPR], defibrillation), chances of survival drop by 7-10%. It is crucial that CPR be initiated within 4-6 minutes to avoid brain death. Most out-of-hospital cardiac arrests (OHCA) occur in a residential setting where access to trained personnel and equipment is not readily available, resulting in poor victim outcomes. Methods: This is a descriptive study done from August to November 2021 using a prospective cohort design. Participants of the study include adult patients aged 18 years and above brought to the emergency room who suffered from out-of-hospital cardiac arrest. Out of the total 102 cases of OHCA, 63 participants were included in the study. Descriptive statistics were used to summarize the demographic and clinical characteristics of the patients. Results: 43 were male patients, comprising the majority at 73.02%. Hypertension was identified as the top co-morbidity, followed by diabetes mellitus, heart failure, and chronic kidney disease (CKD). Medical causes of arrest were identified in 96.83% of the cases. 90.48% of cardiac arrests occurred at home. Only 26 patients (41.27%) received pre-hospital intervention prior to ER arrival, which comprised only hands-only CPR. Twenty-three of which were performed by individuals with background knowledge of CPR. 60.32% were brought via self-conduction, the remainder by ambulances, which were noted to have no available equipment necessary to provide proper resuscitation. The average travel time from dispatch to ER arrival is 20 minutes. Conclusion: Overall survival of OHCA in our local setting remains dismal, as a return of spontaneous circulation was not achieved in any of the patients. The small number of patients having pre-hospital CPR indicates the need for emphasis on training and community education.

Keywords: out-of-hospital cardiac arrest, cardiopulmonary resuscitation, basic life support, emergency medical services

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669 Investigating the Role of Organizational Politics in Human Resource Management: Effects on Performance Appraisal and Downsizing Decisions

Authors: Ibrahim Elshaer, Samar Kamel

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Organizational politics (OP) has received a great deal of attention in the management literature due to its popularity, mystery, and potential advantages for those how can use it. It involves the use of power and social networks within an organization to promote interests and gain potential benefits. Its implication for human resource (HR) management decisions is heretofore one of its least studied aspects, and awaits further investigation. Therefore, it is our intention to investigate certain relations between organizational politics and the validity of HR decisions in addition to the expected dysfunctional consequences. The study is undertaken on two HR management practices- Performance appraisal (measured by the distributive justice scale) and downsizing- depending on data gathered from the hotel industry in Egypt; a developing Non-Western country, in which Political practices of HR management are common in public and private organizations. Data was obtained from a survey of 600 employees in the Egyptian hotel industry. A total of 500 responses were attained. 100 uncompleted questionnaires were excluded leaving 400 usable with response rate of around 80%. Structural equation modeling (SEM) was employed to test the causal relationship between the research variables. The analysis of the current study data reveals that organizational politics is negatively linked to the perception of distributive justice of performance appraisal, additionally, the perception of distributive justice in performance appraisal is positively linked to the perception of validity in the downsizing decisions and finally the perception of OP is negatively linked to the perception of downsizing decisions validity. This study makes three important contributions. First although there have been several studies on OP, the majority of these studies have focused on examining its effect on employees’ attitudes in workplace. This empirical study helps in identifying the influence of OP on the effectiveness and success of HR decisions and accordingly the organizational system. Second, it draws attention to OP as an important phenomenon that influence HR management in hospitality industry, since empirical evidences concerning OP in the hospitality management literature are meager. Third, this study contributes to the existing downsizing literature by examining OP and low distributive justice as challenges of the effectiveness of the downsizing process. Finally, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, no empirical study in the tourism and hospitality management literature has examined the effect of OP and distributive justice on the workplace using data gathered from the hotel industry in Egypt; a developing non-Western setting.

Keywords: organizational politics, performance appraisal, downsizing, structural equation modeling, hotel industry

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668 Expert-Based Validated Measures for Improving Quality Healthcare Services Utilization among Elderly Persons: A Cross-Section Survey

Authors: Uchenna Cosmas Ugwu, Osmond Chukwuemeka Ene

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Globally, older adults are considered the most vulnerable groups to age-related diseases including diabetes mellitus, obesity, cardiovascular diseases, cancer and osteoporosis. With improved access to quality healthcare services, these complications can be prevented and the incidence rates reduced to the least occurrence. The aim of this study is to validate appropriate measures for improving quality healthcare services utilization among elderly persons in Nigeria and also to determine the significant association within demographic variables. A cross-sectional survey research design was adopted. Using a convenient sampling technique, a total of 400 experts (150 registered nurses and 250 public health professionals) with minimum of doctoral degree qualification were sampled and studied. A structured instrument titled “Expert-Based Healthcare Services Utilization Questionnaire (EBHSUQ) with .83 reliability index was used for data collection. All the statistical data analysis was completed using frequency counts, percentage scores and chi-square statistics. The results were significant at p≤0.05. It was found that quality healthcare services utilization by elderly persons in Nigeria would be improved if the services are: available (83%), affordable (82%), accessible (79%), suitable (77%), acceptable (77%), continuous (75%) and stress-free (75%). Statistically, significant association existed on quality healthcare services utilization with gender (p=.03<.05) and age (p=.01<.05) while none was observed on work experience (p=.23>.05), marital status (p=.11>.05) and employment category (p=.09>.05). To improve quality healthcare services utilization for elderly persons in Nigeria, the adoption of appropriate measures by Nigerian government and professionals in healthcare sectors are paramount. Therefore, there is need for collaborative efforts by the Nigerian government and healthcare professionals geared towards educating the general public through mass sensitization, awareness campaign, conferences, seminars and workshops for the importance of accessing healthcare services.

Keywords: elderly persons, healthcare services, cross-sectional survey research design, utilization.

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