Search results for: Grey prediction model

Authors: Mohammad Zavid Parvez, Manoranjan Paul

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Epilepsy is a common neurological disorders characterized by sudden recurrent seizures. Electroencephalogram (EEG) is widely used to diagnose possible epileptic seizure. Many research works have been devoted to predict epileptic seizure by analyzing EEG signal. Seizure prediction by analyzing EEG signals are challenging task due to variations of brain signals of different patients. In this paper, we propose a new approach for feature extraction based on phase correlation in EEG signals. In phase correlation, we calculate relative change between two consecutive segments of an EEG signal and then combine the changes with neighboring signals to extract features. These features are then used to classify preictal/ictal and interictal EEG signals for seizure prediction. Experiment results show that the proposed method carries good prediction rate with greater consistence for the benchmark data set in different brain locations compared to the existing state-of-the-art methods.

Keywords: EEG, epilepsy, phase correlation, seizure

Procedia PDF Downloads 280

Authors: Y. Khulief, S. Bashmal, S. Said, D. Al-Otaibi, K. Mansour

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The prediction of flow rates at which the vibration-induced instability takes place in tubular heat exchangers due to cross-flow is of major importance to the performance and service life of such equipment. In this paper, the semi-analytical model for square tube arrays was extended and utilized to study the triangular tube patterns. A laboratory test rig with instrumented test section is used to measure the fluidelastic coefficients to be used for tuning the mathematical model. The test section can be made of any bundle pattern. In this study, two test sections were constructed for both the normal triangular and the rotated triangular tube arrays. The developed scheme is utilized in predicting the onset of flow-induced instability in the two triangular tube arrays. The results are compared to those obtained for two other bundle configurations. The results of the four different tube patterns are viewed in the light of TEMA predictions. The comparison demonstrated that TEMA guidelines are more conservative in all configurations considered

Keywords: fluid-structure interaction, cross-flow, heat exchangers,

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Authors: Firas M. Tuaimah, Huda M. Abdul Abbas

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Accurate Short Term Load Forecasting (STLF) is essential for a variety of decision making processes. However, forecasting accuracy can drop due to the presence of uncertainty in the operation of energy systems or unexpected behavior of exogenous variables. Interval Type 2 Fuzzy Logic System (IT2 FLS), with additional degrees of freedom, gives an excellent tool for handling uncertainties and it improved the prediction accuracy. The training data used in this study covers the period from January 1, 2012 to February 1, 2012 for winter season and the period from July 1, 2012 to August 1, 2012 for summer season. The actual load forecasting period starts from January 22, till 28, 2012 for winter model and from July 22 till 28, 2012 for summer model. The real data for Iraqi power system which belongs to the Ministry of Electricity.

Keywords: short term load forecasting, prediction interval, type 2 fuzzy logic systems, electric, computer systems engineering

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Authors: Pallavi Mane, Nikita Mankar, Shraddha Mazire, Rasika Pashankar

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Content sharing sites are very useful in sharing information and images. However, with the increasing demand of content sharing sites privacy and security concern have also increased. There is need to develop a tool for controlling user access to their shared content. Therefore, we are developing an Adaptive Privacy Policy Prediction (A3P) system which is helpful for users to create privacy settings for their images. We propose the two-level framework which assigns the best available privacy policy for the users images according to users available histories on the site.

Keywords: online information services, prediction, security and protection, web based services

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Authors: S. Belhour, A. K. Ferouani, C. Azizi

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In recent years, a considerable effort (experience, numerical simulation, and theoretical prediction models) has characterised by high efficiency and low cost. Then an improved physics analytical model for simulating is proposed. The performance of GaAs MESFETs has been developed for use in device design for high frequency. This model is based on mathematical analysis, and a new approach for the standard model is proposed, this approach allowed to conceive applicable model for MESFET’s operating in the turn-one or pinch-off region and valid for the short-channel and the long channel MESFET’s in which the two dimensional potential distribution contributed by the depletion layer under the gate is obtained by conventional approximation. More ever, comparisons between the analytical models with different values of mobility are proposed, and a good agreement is obtained.

Keywords: analytical, gallium arsenide, MESFET, mobility, models

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Authors: Nagini Sabbineni, Rajini T. V. Kanth, B. V. Kiranmayee

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India’s economy primarily depends on agriculture yield growth and their allied agro industry products. The agriculture yield prediction is the toughest task for agricultural departments across the globe. The agriculture yield depends on various factors. Particularly countries like India, majority of agriculture growth depends on rain water, which is highly unpredictable. Agriculture growth depends on different parameters, namely Water, Nitrogen, Weather, Soil characteristics, Crop rotation, Soil moisture, Surface temperature and Rain water etc. In our paper, lot of Explorative Data Analysis is done and various predictive models were designed. Further various regression models like Linear, Multiple Linear, Non-linear models are tested for the effective prediction or the forecast of the agriculture yield for various crops in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana states.

Keywords: agriculture yield growth, agriculture yield prediction, explorative data analysis, predictive models, regression models

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Authors: Lidija R. Jevrić, Sanja O. Podunavac-Kuzmanović, Strahinja Z. Kovačević

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The present study deals with the selection of the most suitable quantitative structure-retention relationship (QSRR) models which should be used in prediction of the retention behavior of basic, neutral, acidic and phenolic pesticides which belong to different classes: fungicides, herbicides, metabolites, insecticides and plant growth regulators. Sum of ranking differences (SRD) approach can give a different point of view on selection of the most consistent QSRR model. SRD approach can be applied not only for ranking of the QSRR models, but also for detection of similarity or dissimilarity among them. Applying the SRD analysis, the most similar models can be found easily. In this study, selection of the best model was carried out on the basis of the reference ranking (“golden standard”) which was defined as the row average values of logarithm of retention time (logtr) defined by high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). Also, SRD analysis based on experimental logtr values as reference ranking revealed similar grouping of the established QSRR models already obtained by hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA).

Keywords: chemometrics, chromatography, pesticides, sum of ranking differences

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Authors: Ahmad Saleem

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Ethereum is the second largest crypto currency in blockchain ecosystem. Along with standard transactions, it supports smart contracts and NFT’s. Current research trends are focused on analyzing the overall structure of the network its growth and behavior. Ethereum addresses are anonymous and can be created on fly. The nature of Ethereum network and addresses make it hard to predict their behavior. The activity period of an ethereum address is not much analyzed. Using machine learning we can make early prediction about the disposability of the address. In this paper we analyzed the lifetime of the addresses. We also identified and predicted the disposable addresses using machine learning models and compared the results.

Keywords: blockchain, Ethereum, cryptocurrency, prediction

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Authors: Pinel Sebastien, Bourrin François, De Madron Du Rieu Xavier, Ludwig Wolfgang, Arnau Pedro

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Heavy precipitation constitutes a major meteorological threat in the western Mediterranean. Research has investigated the relationship between the states of the Mediterranean Sea and the atmosphere with the precipitation for short temporal windows. However, at a larger temporal scale, the precursor signals of heavy rainfall in the sea and atmosphere have drawn little attention. Moreover, despite ongoing improvements in numerical weather prediction, the medium-term forecasting of rainfall events remains a difficult task. Here, we aim to investigate the influence of early-spring environmental parameters on the following autumnal heavy precipitations. Hence, we develop a machine learning model to predict extreme autumnal rainfall with a 6-month lead time over the Spanish Catalan coastal area, based on i) the sea pattern (main current-LPC and Sea Surface Temperature-SST) at the mesoscale scale, ii) 4 European weather teleconnection patterns (NAO, WeMo, SCAND, MO) at synoptic scale, and iii) the hydrological regime of the main local river (Rhône River). The accuracy of the developed model classifier is evaluated via statistical analysis based on classification accuracy, logarithmic and confusion matrix by comparing with rainfall estimates from rain gauges and satellite observations (CHIRPS-2.0). Sensitivity tests are carried out by changing the model configuration, such as sea SST, sea LPC, river regime, and synoptic atmosphere configuration. The sensitivity analysis suggests a negligible influence from the hydrological regime, unlike SST, LPC, and specific teleconnection weather patterns. At last, this study illustrates how public datasets can be integrated into a machine learning model for heavy rainfall prediction and can interest local policies for management purposes.

Keywords: extreme hazards, sensitivity analysis, heavy rainfall, machine learning, sea-atmosphere modeling, precipitation forecasting

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Authors: Jens Friedrich, Matthias A. Gebele, Armin Lechler, Alexander Verl

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Chatter vibrations and process instabilities are the most important factors limiting the productivity of the milling process. Chatter can leads to damage of the tool, the part or the machine tool. Therefore, the estimation and prediction of the process stability is very important. The process stability depends on the spindle speed, the depth of cut and the width of cut. In milling, the process conditions are defined in the NC-program. While the spindle speed is directly coded in the NC-program, the depth and width of cut are unknown. This paper presents a new simulation based approach for the prediction of the depth and width of cut of a milling process. The prediction is based on a material removal simulation with an analytically represented tool shape and a multi-dexel approach for the work piece. The new calculation method allows the direct estimation of the depth and width of cut, which are the influencing parameters of the process stability, instead of the removed volume as existing approaches do. The knowledge can be used to predict the stability of new, unknown parts. Moreover with an additional vibration sensor, the stability lobe diagram of a milling process can be estimated and improved based on the estimated depth and width of cut.

Keywords: dexel, process stability, material removal, milling

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Authors: Shan-Hong Ying, Ying-Fang Wang

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A surrogate approach was deployed for assessing exposures of multiple chemicals at the selected working area of coating processes and applied to assess the exposure concentration of similar exposed groups using the same chemicals but different formula ratios. For the selected area, 6 to 12 portable photoionization detector (PID) were placed uniformly in its workplace to measure its total VOCs concentrations (CT-VOCs) for 6 randomly selected workshifts. Simultaneously, one sampling strain was placed beside one of these portable PIDs, and the collected air sample was analyzed for individual concentration (CVOCi) of 5 VOCs (xylene, butanone, toluene, butyl acetate, and dimethylformamide). Predictive models were established by relating the CT-VOCs to CVOCi of each individual compound via simple regression analysis. The established predictive models were employed to predict each CVOCi based on the measured CT-VOC for each the similar working area using the same portable PID. Results show that predictive models obtained from simple linear regression analyses were found with an R2 = 0.83~0.99 indicating that CT-VOCs were adequate for predicting CVOCi. In order to verify the validity of the exposure prediction model, the sampling analysis of the above chemical substances was further carried out and the correlation between the measured value (Cm) and the predicted value (Cp) was analyzed. It was found that there is a good correction between the predicted value and measured value of each measured chemical substance (R2=0.83~0.98). Therefore, the surrogate approach could be assessed the exposure concentration of similar exposed groups using the same chemicals but different formula ratios. However, it is recommended to establish the prediction model between the chemical substances belonging to each coater and the direct-reading PID, which is more representative of reality exposure situation and more accurately to estimate the long-term exposure concentration of operators.

Keywords: exposure assessment, exposure prediction model, surrogate approach, TVOC

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Authors: Aidan J. Bowes, Reaz Hasan

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The automotive industry is continually aiming to develop the aerodynamics of car body design. This may be for a variety of beneficial reasons such as to increase speed or fuel efficiency by reducing drag. However recently there has been a greater amount of focus on wind noise produced while driving. Designers in this industry seek a combination of both simplicity of approach and overall effectiveness. This combined with the growing availability of commercial CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) packages is likely to lead to an increase in the use of RANS (Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes) based CFD methods. This is due to these methods often being simpler than other CFD methods, having a lower demand on time and computing power. In this investigation the effectiveness of turbulent flow and acoustic noise prediction using RANS based methods has been assessed for different wing mirror geometries. Three different RANS based models were used, standard k-ε, realizable k-ε and k-ω SST. The merits and limitations of these methods are then discussed, by comparing with both experimental and numerical results found in literature. In general, flow prediction is fairly comparable to more complex LES (Large Eddy Simulation) based methods; in particular for the k-ω SST model. However acoustic noise prediction still leaves opportunities for more improvement using RANS based methods.

Keywords: acoustics, aerodynamics, RANS models, turbulent flow

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Authors: Subhadip Biswas, Shivendra Maurya, Satish Chandra, Indrajit Ghosh

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Developing speed model is a challenging task particularly under mixed traffic condition where the traffic composition plays a significant role in determining vehicular speed. The present research has been conducted to model individual vehicular speed in the context of mixed traffic on an urban arterial. Traffic speed and volume data have been collected from three midblock arterial road sections in New Delhi. Using the field data, a volume based speed prediction model has been developed adopting the methodology of Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The model developed in this work is capable of estimating speed for individual vehicle category. Validation results show a great deal of agreement between the observed speeds and the predicted values by the model developed. Also, it has been observed that the ANN based model performs better compared to other existing models in terms of accuracy. Finally, the sensitivity analysis has been performed utilizing the model in order to examine the effects of traffic volume and its composition on individual speeds.

Keywords: speed model, artificial neural network, arterial, mixed traffic

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Authors: Bhavita S. Dave, Jaimin Vaidya, Chandresh H. Solanki, Atul K.

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To measure the permeability of a soil specimen, one of the basic assumptions of Darcy's law is that the soil sample should be saturated. Unlike saturated soils, the permeability of unsaturated soils cannot be found using conventional methods as it does not follow Darcy's law. Many empirical models, such as the Van Genuchten Model and Fredlund-Xing Model were suggested to predict permeability value for unsaturated soil. Such models use data from the soil-freezing characteristic curve to find fitting parameters for frozen unsaturated soils. In this study, soil specimens were subjected to 0, 1, 3, and 5 freezing-thawing (F-T) cycles for different degrees of saturation to have a wide range of suction, and its soil freezing characteristic curves were formulated for all F-T cycles. Changes in fitting parameters and relative permeability with subsequent F-T cycles are presented in this paper for both models.

Keywords: frozen unsaturated soil, Fredlund Xing model, soil-freezing characteristic curve, Van Genuchten model

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Authors: Hamdi Amroun, Yacine Benziani, Mehdi Ammi

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In this paper, we want to determine whether the accurate prediction of nicotine concentration can be obtained by using a network of smart objects and an e-cigarette. The approach consists of, first, the recognition of factors influencing smoking cessation such as physical activity recognition and participant’s behaviors (using both smartphone and smartwatch), then the prediction of the configuration of the e-cigarette (in terms of nicotine concentration, power, and resistance of e-cigarette). The study uses a network of commonly connected objects; a smartwatch, a smartphone, and an e-cigarette transported by the participants during an uncontrolled experiment. The data obtained from sensors carried in the three devices were trained by a Long short-term memory algorithm (LSTM). Results show that our LSTM-based model allows predicting the configuration of the e-cigarette in terms of nicotine concentration, power, and resistance with a root mean square error percentage of 12.9%, 9.15%, and 11.84%, respectively. This study can help to better control consumption of nicotine and offer an intelligent configuration of the e-cigarette to users.

Keywords: Iot, activity recognition, automatic classification, unconstrained environment

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Authors: Lavinia B. Dulla

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The exploration study of the fuzzy regression approach attempts to present that fuzzy regression can be used as a possible alternative to classical regression. It likewise seeks to assess the differences and characteristics of simple linear regression and fuzzy regression using the width of prediction interval, mean absolute deviation, and variance of residuals. Based on the simple linear regression model, the fuzzy regression approach is worth considering as an alternative to simple linear regression when the sample size is between 10 and 20. As the sample size increases, the fuzzy regression approach is not applicable to use since the assumption regarding large sample size is already operating within the framework of simple linear regression. Nonetheless, it can be suggested for a practical alternative when decisions often have to be made on the basis of small data.

Keywords: fuzzy regression approach, minimum fuzziness criterion, interval regression, prediction interval

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Authors: Thomas Adi Purnomo Sidhi

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Nowadays, network is an essential need in almost every part of human daily activities. People now can seamlessly connect to others through the Internet. With advanced technology, our personal data now can be more easily accessed. One of many components we are concerned for delivering the best network is a security issue. This paper is proposing a method that provides more options for security. This research aims to improve network security by focusing on the physical layer which is the first layer of the OSI model. The layer consists of the basic networking hardware transmission technologies of a network. With the use of observation method, the research produces a schematic design for enhancing the network security through the gray code converter.

Keywords: network, network security, grey code, physical layer

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Authors: R. O. Osaseri, A. R. Usiobaifo

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The power transformer which is responsible for the voltage transformation is of great relevance in the power system and oil-immerse transformer is widely used all over the world. A prompt and proper maintenance of the transformer is of utmost importance. The dissolved gasses content in power transformer, oil is of enormous importance in detecting incipient fault of the transformer. There is a need for accurate prediction of the incipient fault in transformer oil in order to facilitate the prompt maintenance and reducing the cost and error minimization. Study on fault prediction and diagnostic has been the center of many researchers and many previous works have been reported on the use of artificial intelligence to predict incipient failure of transformer faults. In this study machine learning technique was employed by using gradient decent algorithms and Support Vector Machine (SVM) in predicting incipient fault diagnosis of transformer. The method focuses on creating a system that improves its performance on previous result and historical data. The system design approach is basically in two phases; training and testing phase. The gradient decent algorithm is trained with a training dataset while the learned algorithm is applied to a set of new data. This two dataset is used to prove the accuracy of the proposed model. In this study a transformer fault diagnostic model based on Support Vector Machine (SVM) and gradient decent algorithms has been presented with a satisfactory diagnostic capability with high percentage in predicting incipient failure of transformer faults than existing diagnostic methods.

Keywords: diagnostic model, gradient decent, machine learning, support vector machine (SVM), transformer fault

Procedia PDF Downloads 287

Authors: Shogo Kato, Daisuke Okamoto, Satoko Tsuru, Yoshinori Iizuka, Ryoko Shimono

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Healthcare safety has been perceived important. It is essential to prevent troubles in healthcare processes for healthcare safety. Trouble prevention is based on trouble prediction using accumulated knowledge on processes, troubles, and countermeasures. However, information on troubles has not been accumulated in hospitals in the appropriate structure, and it has not been utilized effectively to prevent troubles. In the previous study, though a detailed knowledge acquisition process for trouble prediction was proposed, the knowledgebase for countermeasures was not involved. In this paper, we aim to propose the structure of the knowledgebase for countermeasures in the knowledge acquisition process for trouble prediction in healthcare process. We first design the structure of countermeasures and propose the knowledge representation form on countermeasures. Then, we evaluate the validity of the proposal, by applying it into an actual hospital.

Keywords: trouble prevention, knowledge structure, structured knowledge, reusable knowledge

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Authors: Bitewulign Mekonnen

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Context: This scientific paper focuses on the use of near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy to determine glucose concentration in aqueous solutions accurately and rapidly. The study compares six different machine learning methods for predicting glucose concentration and also explores the development of a deep learning model for classifying NIR spectra. The objective is to optimize the detection model and improve the accuracy of glucose prediction. This research is important because it provides a comprehensive analysis of various machine-learning techniques for estimating aqueous glucose concentrations. Research Aim: The aim of this study is to compare and evaluate different machine-learning methods for predicting glucose concentration from NIR spectra. Additionally, the study aims to develop and assess a deep-learning model for classifying NIR spectra. Methodology: The research methodology involves the use of machine learning and deep learning techniques. Six machine learning regression models, including support vector machine regression, partial least squares regression, extra tree regression, random forest regression, extreme gradient boosting, and principal component analysis-neural network, are employed to predict glucose concentration. The NIR spectra data is randomly divided into train and test sets, and the process is repeated ten times to increase generalization ability. In addition, a convolutional neural network is developed for classifying NIR spectra. Findings: The study reveals that the SVMR, ETR, and PCA-NN models exhibit excellent performance in predicting glucose concentration, with correlation coefficients (R) > 0.99 and determination coefficients (R²)> 0.985. The deep learning model achieves high macro-averaging scores for precision, recall, and F1-measure. These findings demonstrate the effectiveness of machine learning and deep learning methods in optimizing the detection model and improving glucose prediction accuracy. Theoretical Importance: This research contributes to the field by providing a comprehensive analysis of various machine-learning techniques for estimating glucose concentrations from NIR spectra. It also explores the use of deep learning for the classification of indistinguishable NIR spectra. The findings highlight the potential of machine learning and deep learning in enhancing the prediction accuracy of glucose-relevant features. Data Collection and Analysis Procedures: The NIR spectra and corresponding references for glucose concentration are measured in increments of 20 mg/dl. The data is randomly divided into train and test sets, and the models are evaluated using regression analysis and classification metrics. The performance of each model is assessed based on correlation coefficients, determination coefficients, precision, recall, and F1-measure. Question Addressed: The study addresses the question of whether machine learning and deep learning methods can optimize the detection model and improve the accuracy of glucose prediction from NIR spectra. Conclusion: The research demonstrates that machine learning and deep learning methods can effectively predict glucose concentration from NIR spectra. The SVMR, ETR, and PCA-NN models exhibit superior performance, while the deep learning model achieves high classification scores. These findings suggest that machine learning and deep learning techniques can be used to improve the prediction accuracy of glucose-relevant features. Further research is needed to explore their clinical utility in analyzing complex matrices, such as blood glucose levels.

Keywords: machine learning, signal processing, near-infrared spectroscopy, support vector machine, neural network

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Authors: Amiel Satvedi, Richard Pyne

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Injuries in professional sports occur on a regular basis. Some may be minor, while others can cause huge impact on a player's career and earning potential. In soccer, there is a high risk of players picking up injuries during game time. This research work seeks to help soccer players reduce the risk of getting injured by predicting the likelihood of injury while playing in the near future and then providing recommendations for intervention. The injury prediction tool will use a soccer player's number of minutes played on the field, number of appearances, distance covered and performance data for the current and previous seasons as variables to conduct statistical analysis and provide injury predictive results using a machine learning linear regression model.

Keywords: injury predictor, soccer injury prevention, machine learning in soccer, big data in soccer

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Authors: Oluwaponmile David Alao

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Due to an increase in the death rate as a result of heart attack. There is need to develop a system that can be useful in the diagnosis of the disease at the medical centre. This system will help in preventing misdiagnosis that may occur from the medical practitioner or the physicians. In this research work, heart disease dataset obtained from UCI repository has been used to develop an intelligent prediction diagnosis system. The system is modeled on a feedforwad neural network and trained with back propagation neural network. A recognition rate of 86% is obtained from the testing of the network.

Keywords: heart disease, artificial neural network, diagnosis, prediction system

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Authors: Jerome T. Tolentino, Ma. Victoria Rejuso, Jara Kaye Villanueva, Loureal Camille Inocencio, Ma. Rosario Concepcion O. Ang

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Wind energy is rapidly emerging as the primary source of electricity in the Philippines, although developing an accurate wind resource model is difficult. In this study, Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, an open source mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model, was used to produce a 1-year atmospheric simulation with 4 km resolution on the Ilocos Region of the Philippines. The WRF output (netCDF) extracts the annual mean wind speed data using a Python-based Graphical User Interface. Lastly, wind resource assessment was produced using a GIS software. Results of the study showed that it is more flexible to use Python scripts than using other post-processing tools in dealing with netCDF files. Using WRF Model, Python, and Geographic Information Systems, a reliable wind resource map is produced.

Keywords: wind resource assessment, weather research and forecasting (WRF) model, python, GIS software

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Authors: Ahmed Z. Mazen, Nejat Rahmanian, Iqbal Mujtaba, Ali Hassanpour

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In oil and gas well drilling, the drill bit is an important part of the Bottom Hole Assembly (BHA), which is installed and designed to drill and produce a hole by several mechanisms. The efficiency of the bit depends on many drilling parameters such as weight on bit, rotary speed, and mud properties. When the bit is pulled out of the hole, the evaluation of the bit damage must be recorded very carefully to guide engineers in order to select the bits for further planned wells. Having a worn bit for hole drilling may cause severe damage to bit leading to cutter or cone losses in the bottom of hole, where a fishing job will have to take place, and all of these will increase the operating cost. The main factor to reduce the cost of drilling operation is to maximize the rate of penetration by analyzing real-time data to predict the drill bit wear while drilling. There are numerous models in the literature for prediction of the rate of penetration based on drilling parameters, mostly based on empirical approaches. One of the most commonly used approaches is Bourgoyne and Young model, where the rate of penetration can be estimated by the drilling parameters as well as a wear index using an empirical correlation, provided all the constants and coefficients are accurately determined. This paper introduces a new methodology to estimate the eight coefficients for Bourgoyne and Young model using the gPROMS parameters estimation GPE (Version 4.2.0). Real data collected form similar formations (12 ¼’ sections) in two different fields in Libya are used to estimate the coefficients. The estimated coefficients are then used in the equations and applied to nearby wells in the same field to predict the bit wear.

Keywords: Bourgoyne and Young model, bit wear, gPROMS, rate of penetration

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Authors: Laidi Maamar, Hanini Salah

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The present work investigates the potential of artificial neural network (ANN) model to predict the horizontal global solar radiation (HGSR). The ANN is developed and optimized using three years meteorological database from 2011 to 2013 available at the meteorological station of Blida (Blida 1 university, Algeria, Latitude 36.5°, Longitude 2.81° and 163 m above mean sea level). Optimal configuration of the ANN model has been determined by minimizing the Root Means Square Error (RMSE) and maximizing the correlation coefficient (R2) between observed and predicted data with the ANN model. To select the best ANN architecture, we have conducted several tests by using different combinations of parameters. A two-layer ANN model with six hidden neurons has been found as an optimal topology with (RMSE=4.036 W/m²) and (R²=0.999). A graphical user interface (GUI), was designed based on the best network structure and training algorithm, to enhance the users’ friendliness application of the model.

Keywords: artificial neural network, global solar radiation, solar energy, prediction, Algeria

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Authors: Benedictus Asriparusa, Lathifah Al Hakimi, Aulia Husada

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A large amount of energy is being wasted by the release of natural gas associated with the oil industry. This release interrupts the environment particularly atmosphere layer condition globally which contributes to global warming impact. This research presents an overview of the methods employed by researchers in PT. Chevron Pacific Indonesia in the Minas area to determine a new prediction method of measuring and reducing gas flaring and its emission. The method emphasizes advanced research which involved analytical studies, numerical studies, modeling, and computer simulations, amongst other techniques. A flaring system is the controlled burning of natural gas in the course of routine oil and gas production operations. This burning occurs at the end of a flare stack or boom. The combustion process releases emissions of greenhouse gases such as NO2, CO2, SO2, etc. This condition will affect the chemical composition of air and environment around the boundary layer mainly during transition season. Transition season in Indonesia is absolutely very difficult condition to predict its pattern caused by the difference of two air mass conditions. This paper research focused on transition season in 2013. A simulation to create the new pattern of the pollutants distribution is needed. This paper has outlines trends in gas flaring modeling and current developments to predict the dominant variables in the pollutants distribution. A Fluent model is used to simulate the distribution of pollutants gas coming out of the stack, whereas WRF model output is used to overcome the limitations of the analysis of meteorological data and atmospheric conditions in the study area. Based on the running model, the most influence factor was wind speed. The goal of the simulation is to predict the new pattern based on the time of fastest wind and slowest wind occurs for pollutants distribution. According to the simulation results, it can be seen that the fastest wind (last of March) moves pollutants in a horizontal direction and the slowest wind (middle of May) moves pollutants vertically. Besides, the design of flare stack in compliance according to EPA Oil and Gas Facility Stack Parameters likely shows pollutants concentration remains on the under threshold NAAQS (National Ambient Air Quality Standards).

Keywords: flare motion, new prediction, pollutants distribution, transition season, WRF model

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Authors: Ahmad Shahin, Walid Moudani, Ali Bekraki

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This research aims at presenting a predictive data mining model to handle an accurate diagnosis of acute appendicitis with patients for the purpose of maximizing the health service quality, minimizing morbidity/mortality, and reducing cost. However, acute appendicitis is the most common disease which requires timely accurate diagnosis and needs surgical intervention. Although the treatment of acute appendicitis is simple and straightforward, its diagnosis is still difficult because no single sign, symptom, laboratory or image examination accurately confirms the diagnosis of acute appendicitis in all cases. This contributes in increasing morbidity and negative appendectomy. In this study, the authors propose to generate an accurate model in prediction of patients with acute appendicitis which is based, firstly, on the segmentation technique associated to ABC algorithm to segment the patients; secondly, on applying fuzzy logic to process the massive volume of heterogeneous and noisy data (age, sex, fever, white blood cell, neutrophilia, CRP, urine, ultrasound, CT, appendectomy, etc.) in order to express knowledge and analyze the relationships among data in a comprehensive manner; and thirdly, on applying dynamic programming technique to reduce the number of data attributes. The proposed model is evaluated based on a set of benchmark techniques and even on a set of benchmark classification problems of osteoporosis, diabetes and heart obtained from the UCI data and other data sources.

Keywords: healthcare management, acute appendicitis, data mining, classification, decision tree

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Authors: Gonzalez Carlos, Martinez Fransisco

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There are various types of analysis that allow us to involve seismic phenomena that cause strong requirements for structures that are designed by society; one of them is a probabilistic analysis which works from prediction equations that have been created based on metadata seismic compiled in different regions. These equations form models that are used to describe the 5% damped pseudo spectra response for the various zones considering some easily known input parameters. The biggest problem for the creation of these models requires data with great robust statistics that support the results, and there are several places where this type of information is not available, for which the use of alternative methodologies helps to achieve adjustments to different models of seismic prediction.

Keywords: GMPM, 5% damped pseudo-response spectra, models of seismic prediction, PSHA

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Authors: Mohd Sabri Minhat, Nurul Adilla Mohd Subha

Abstract:

The PUSPATI TRIGA Reactor (RTP), Malaysia reached its first criticality on June 28, 1982, with power capacity 1MW thermal. The Feedback Control Algorithm (FCA) which is conventional Proportional-Integral (PI) controller, was used for present power control method to control fission process in RTP. It is important to ensure the core power always stable and follows load tracking within acceptable steady-state error and minimum settling time to reach steady-state power. At this time, the system could be considered not well-posed with power tracking performance. However, there is still potential to improve current performance by developing next generation of a novel design nuclear core power control. In this paper, the dual-mode predictions which are proposed in modelling Optimal Model Predictive Control (OMPC), is presented in a state-space model to control the core power. The model for core power control was based on mathematical models of the reactor core, OMPC, and control rods selection algorithm. The mathematical models of the reactor core were based on neutronic models, thermal hydraulic models, and reactivity models. The dual-mode prediction in OMPC for transient and terminal modes was based on the implementation of a Linear Quadratic Regulator (LQR) in designing the core power control. The combination of dual-mode prediction and Lyapunov which deal with summations in cost function over an infinite horizon is intended to eliminate some of the fundamental weaknesses related to MPC. This paper shows the behaviour of OMPC to deal with tracking, regulation problem, disturbance rejection and caters for parameter uncertainty. The comparison of both tracking and regulating performance is analysed between the conventional controller and OMPC by numerical simulations. In conclusion, the proposed OMPC has shown significant performance in load tracking and regulating core power for nuclear reactor with guarantee stabilising in the closed-loop.

Keywords: core power control, dual-mode prediction, load tracking, optimal model predictive control

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Authors: Shervin Alaei, Reza Moradi

Abstract:

Trading in financial markets is subject to risks due to their high volatilities. Here, using an LSTM neural network, and by doing some risk-based feature engineering tasks, we developed a method that can accurately predict trends of the Tehran stock exchange market index from a few days ago. Our test results have shown that the proposed method with an average prediction accuracy of more than 94% is superior to the other common machine learning algorithms. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work incorporating deep learning and risk factors to accurately predict market trends.

Keywords: deep learning, LSTM, trend prediction, risk management, artificial neural networks

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