Search results for: Dengue epidemic

Authors: I. Nyoman Mahayasa Adiputra

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Data in the field of health can be useful for the purposes of data analysis, one example of health data is disease data. Disease data is usually in a geographical plot in accordance with the area. Where the data was collected, in the city of Denpasar, Bali. Disease data report is still published in tabular form, disease information has not been mapped in GIS form. In this research, disease information in Denpasar city will be digitized in the form of a geographic information system with the smallest administrative area in the form of district. Denpasar City consists of 4 districts of North Denpasar, East Denpasar, West Denpasar and South Denpasar. In this research, we use Google fusion table technology for map digitization process, where this technology can facilitate from the administrator and from the recipient information. From the administrator side of the input disease, data can be done easily and quickly. From the receiving end of the information, the resulting GIS application can be published in a website-based application so that it can be accessed anywhere and anytime. In general, the results obtained in this study, divided into two, namely: (1) Geolocation of Denpasar and all of Denpasar districts, the process of digitizing the map of Denpasar city produces a polygon geolocation of each - district of Denpasar city. These results can be utilized in subsequent GIS studies if you want to use the same administrative area. (2) Dengue fever mapping in 2014 and 2015. Disease data used in this study is dengue fever case data taken in 2014 and 2015. Data taken from the profile report Denpasar Health Department 2015 and 2016. This mapping can be useful for the analysis of the spread of dengue hemorrhagic fever in the city of Denpasar.

Keywords: geographic information system, Google fusion table technology, delivery of disease data information, Denpasar city

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Authors: Othman Saleh Al-Razgan

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Obesity establishes an epidemic along with an array of comorbidities and this call for careful clinical assessment, to identify causal factors and comprehensive management. In Kuwait, this epidemic reflects the progressive, socio-economic and age-related issues, along with the shift of nutrition from traditional to modern-style. The current research attempts to narrate the obesity and related health issues in Kuwait, with a special emphasis on the magnitude of the issue in Kuwait, nutrition transition over the past three decades, change in life-style, and possible solution for this issue.

Keywords: clinical assessment, comorbidities, obesity, socio-economic

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Authors: Mohammad Hossain Validad

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Background and Aim: Epidemic keratoconjunctivitis is a type of conjunctivitis caused by adenoviruses that can spread rapidly through direct and indirect contact. The aim of this study was to evaluate the therapeutic effects of Povidone-Iodine 0.4% and 0.2% in improving the symptoms and signs of patients with epidemic keratoconjunctivitis. Materials and Methods: In this clinical trial study, 60 patients with a mean age of 27.8±8.4 years who were eligible for inclusion criteria were randomly divided into three groups. The first group received eye drops of Povidone-Iodine 0.4% and betamethasone 0.1%, the second group received PovidoneIodine 0.2% and betamethasone 0.1% and the third group received betamethasone 0.1%. Follow-ups were on the first, fourth, seventh and tenth days after starting treatment. Parameters examined at each examination were hyperaemia, mucopurulent discharge, eyelid edema, hemorrhage, and subepithelial infiltration. Results: The results showed that mucopurulent discharge on the fourth day of the examination (P = 0.005) and the seventh day of the examination (P = 0.001) were significantly different in the three treatment groups. Sub-epithelial infiltration on the tenth day after treatment did not show a significant difference in the 3 groups (P = 0.287). Conclusion: Based on the results of this study, Povidone-Iodine is more effective in relieving some of signs of EKC, such as reduced mucopurulent discharge than steroids alone.

Keywords: EKC, topical bethadine, adenovirus, sub epithelial opacity

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Authors: Donna L. Roberts

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Heroin has appeared on the drug scene before. Yet the current opioid crisis differs in significant ways. In order to address the grave challenges, this epidemic poses, the unique precipitating and sustaining conditions must be thoroughly examined. This research explored the various aspects of the political, economic, and social conditions that created a 'perfect storm' for the evolution and maintenance of the current opioid crisis. Specifically, the epidemiology, demographics, and progression of addiction inherent in the current crisis were compared to the patterns of past opioid use. Additionally, the role of pharmaceutical companies and prescribing physicians, the nature and pharmaceutical properties of the available substances and the changing socioeconomic climate were considered. Results indicated that the current crisis differs significantly with respect to its evolution, magnitude, prevalence, and widespread societal effects. Precipitated by a proliferation of prescription medication and sustained by the availability of cheaper, more potent street drugs, including new versions of synthetic opioids, the current crisis presents unprecedented challenges affecting a wider and more diverse segment of society. The unique aspects of this epidemic demand unique approaches to addressing the problem. Understanding these differences is a key step in working toward a practical and enduring solution.

Keywords: addiction, drug abuse, opioids, opioid crisis

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Authors: Yichao Liu, Peter Fransson, Julian Heidecke, Jonas Wallin, Joacim Rockloev

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Dengue, a mosquito-borne viral disease, poses a significant public health challenge in endemic tropical or subtropical countries, including Sri Lanka. To reveal insights into the complexity of the dynamics of this disease and study the drivers, a comprehensive model capable of both robust forecasting and insightful inference of drivers while capturing the co-circulating of several virus strains is essential. However, existing studies mostly focus on only one aspect at a time and do not integrate and carry insights across the siloed approach. While mechanistic models are developed to capture immunity dynamics, they are often oversimplified and lack integration of all the diverse drivers of disease transmission. On the other hand, purely data-driven methods lack constraints imposed by immuno-epidemiological processes, making them prone to overfitting and inference bias. This research presents a hybrid model that combines machine learning techniques with mechanistic modelling to overcome the limitations of existing approaches. Leveraging eight years of newly reported dengue case data, along with socioeconomic factors, such as human mobility, weekly climate data from 2011 to 2018, genetic data detecting the introduction and presence of new strains, and estimates of seropositivity for different districts in Sri Lanka, we derive a data-driven vector (SEI) to human (SEIR) model across 16 regions in Sri Lanka at the weekly time scale. By conducting ablation studies, the lag effects allowing delays up to 12 weeks of time-varying climate factors were determined. The model demonstrates superior predictive performance over a pure machine learning approach when considering lead times of 5 and 10 weeks on data withheld from model fitting. It further reveals several interesting interpretable findings of drivers while adjusting for the dynamics and influences of immunity and introduction of a new strain. The study uncovers strong influences of socioeconomic variables: population density, mobility, household income and rural vs. urban population. The study reveals substantial sensitivity to the diurnal temperature range and precipitation, while mean temperature and humidity appear less important in the study location. Additionally, the model indicated sensitivity to vegetation index, both max and average. Predictions on testing data reveal high model accuracy. Overall, this study advances the knowledge of dengue transmission in Sri Lanka and demonstrates the importance of incorporating hybrid modelling techniques to use biologically informed model structures with flexible data-driven estimates of model parameters. The findings show the potential to both inference of drivers in situations of complex disease dynamics and robust forecasting models.

Keywords: compartmental model, climate, dengue, machine learning, social-economic

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Authors: Jam Harley

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The COVID-19 epidemic accelerated the speed of change in the workplace. Overnight, several individuals shifted from co-location in an office to hybrid or remote work. The pandemic also expedited and intensified the need to address persistent leadership and management concerns, including digital transformation, remote management, leading through fast change, anxiety, and uncertainty. Nonetheless, many leaders have failed to address the problems left behind by the epidemic. In a fundamental work devoted to comprehending what constitutes a human need, Maslow reiterates similar descriptors in his explanation of belongingness as the human need to be accepted, acknowledged, respected, and appreciated by a community of other individuals. This study aims to investigate the lived experiences of dispersed hybrid team members in order to find leadership best practices that improve team performance and retention through an increased individual’s sense of belonging.

Keywords: organizational change, belonging, diversity, equity

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Authors: Luna Degife, Desalegn Belay, Yoseph Worku, Tigist Tesfaye, Assefa Tufa, Abyot Bekele, Zegeye Hailemariam, Abay Hagos

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Half of the world’s population is at risk of Dengue Fever (DF), a highly under-recognized and underreported mosquito-borne viral disease with high prevalence in the tropical and subtropical regions. Globally, an estimated 50 to 200 million cases and 20, 000 DF deaths occur annually as per the world health organization report. In Ethiopia, the first outbreak occurred in 2013 in Diredawa administration city. Afterward, three outbreaks have been reported from the eastern part of the country. We received a report of the fifth DF outbreak for Ethiopia and the second for Diredawa city on October 4, 2015. We conducted the investigation to confirm the outbreak, identify the risk factors for the repeatedly occurrence of the disease and implement control measures. We conducted un- matched case-control study and defined a suspected DF case as any person with fever of 2-7 days and 2 or more of the following: a headache, arthralgia, myalgia, rash, or bleeding from any part of the body. Controls were residents of Diredawa city without DF symptoms. We interviewed 70 Cases and 140 controls from all health facilities in Diredawa city from October 7 to 15; 2015. Epi Info version 7.1.5.0 was used to analyze the data and multivariable logistic regression was conducted to assess risk factors for DF. Sixty-nine blood samples were collected for Laboratory confirmation.The mean age for cases was 23.7±9.5 standard deviation (SD) and for controls 31.2±13 SD. Close contact with DF patient (Adjusted odds ratio (AOR)=5.36, 95% confidence interval(CI): 2.75-10.44), nonuse of long-lasting insecticidal nets (AOR=2.74, 95% CI: 1.06-7.08) and availability of stagnant water in the village (AOR=3.61, 95% CI:1.31-9.93) were independent risk factors associated with higher rates of the disease. Forty-two samples were tested positive. Endemicity of DF is becoming a concern for Diredawa city after the first outbreak. Therefore, effective vector control activities need to be part of long-term preventive measures.

Keywords: dengue fever, Diredawa, outbreak, risk factors, second

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Authors: Ofosuhene O. Apenteng, Noor Azina Ismail

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The human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) that causes acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) remains a global cause of morbidity and mortality. It has caused panic since its emergence. Relationships between migration and HIV/AIDS have become complex. In the absence of prospectively designed studies, dynamic mathematical models that take into account the migration movement which will give very useful information. We have explored the utility of mathematical models in understanding transmission dynamics of HIV and AIDS and in assessing the magnitude of how migration has impact on the disease. The model was calibrated to HIV and AIDS incidence data from Malaysia Ministry of Health from the period of 1986 to 2011 using Bayesian analysis with combination of Markov chain Monte Carlo method (MCMC) approach to estimate the model parameters. From the estimated parameters, the estimated basic reproduction number was 22.5812. The rate at which the susceptible individual moved to HIV compartment has the highest sensitivity value which is more significant as compared to the remaining parameters. Thus, the disease becomes unstable. This is a big concern and not good indicator from the public health point of view since the aim is to stabilize the epidemic at the disease-free equilibrium. However, these results suggest that the government as a policy maker should make further efforts to curb illegal activities performed by migrants. It is shown that our models reflect considerably the dynamic behavior of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Malaysia and eventually could be used strategically for other countries.

Keywords: epidemic model, reproduction number, HIV, MCMC, parameter estimation

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Authors: Hsiang-Yu Yuan, Marc Baguelin, Kin O. Kwok, Nimalan Arinaminpathy, Edwin Leeuwen, Steven Riley

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Traditional syndromic surveillance for influenza has substantial public health value in characterizing epidemics. Because the relationship between syndromic incidence and the true infection events can vary from one population to another and from one year to another, recent studies rely on combining serological test results with syndromic data from traditional surveillance into epidemic models to make inference on epidemiological processes of influenza. However, despite the widespread availability of serological data, epidemic models have thus far not explicitly represented antibody titre levels and their correspondence with immunity. Most studies use dichotomized data with a threshold (Typically, a titre of 1:40 was used) to define individuals as likely recently infected and likely immune and further estimate the cumulative incidence. Underestimation of Influenza attack rate could be resulted from the dichotomized data. In order to improve the use of serosurveillance data, here, a refinement of the concept of the stratified immunity within an epidemic model for influenza transmission was proposed, such that all individual antibody titre levels were enumerated explicitly and mapped onto a variable scale of susceptibility in different age groups. Haemagglutination inhibition titres from 523 individuals and 465 individuals during pre- and post-pandemic phase of the 2009 pandemic in Hong Kong were collected. The model was fitted to serological data in age-structured population using Bayesian framework and was able to reproduce key features of the epidemics. The effects of age-specific antibody boosting and protection were explored in greater detail. RB was defined to be the effective reproductive number in the presence of stratified immunity and its temporal dynamics was compared to the traditional epidemic model using use dichotomized seropositivity data. Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) was used to measure the fitness of the model to serological data with different mechanisms of the serological response. The results demonstrated that the differential antibody response with age was present (ΔDIC = -7.0). The age-specific mixing patterns with children specific transmissibility, rather than pre-existing immunity, was most likely to explain the high serological attack rates in children and low serological attack rates in elderly (ΔDIC = -38.5). Our results suggested that the disease dynamics and herd immunity of a population could be described more accurately for influenza when the distribution of immunity was explicitly represented, rather than relying only on the dichotomous states 'susceptible' and 'immune' defined by the threshold titre (1:40) (ΔDIC = -11.5). During the outbreak, RB declined slowly from 1.22[1.16-1.28] in the first four months after 1st May. RB dropped rapidly below to 1 during September and October, which was consistent to the observed epidemic peak time in the late September. One of the most important challenges for infectious disease control is to monitor disease transmissibility in real time with statistics such as the effective reproduction number. Once early estimates of antibody boosting and protection are obtained, disease dynamics can be reconstructed, which are valuable for infectious disease prevention and control.

Keywords: effective reproductive number, epidemic model, influenza epidemic dynamics, stratified immunity

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Authors: V. Baweja, K. K. Gupta, V. Dubey, C. Keshavam

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Antimicrobial activity of six indigenous plants such as Tulsi Ocimum sanctum, Neem Azadirachta indica, Aloe vera, Turmeric Curcuma longa, Lantana Lantana camara, and Clove Syzygium aromaticum was assessed against the gut microbiota of the dengue fever mosquito Aedes aegypti, keeping in view that the presence of midgut bacteria may affect the ability of the vector to transmit pathogens. Eleven different types of bacterial clones were isolated from the midgut of lab-reared fourth instar larvae of Aedes aegypti and were grown on LB agar medium at an optimum temperature of 25 ºC. Identification of these bacteria was done on the basis of their colony characteristic such as colony size, shape, opacity, elevation, consistency, and growth. Light microscopic studies of the gut microbiota revealed dominance of Gram-negative cocci over gram positive cocci and bacilli and Gram-negative bacilli. Identification of species was done by chemical characterization of the colonies. Crude extracts of all test plants were screened for their antimicrobial activities against gut microbiota by disc diffusion assay. The zone of exclusion seen after 24 hr of incubation in different assays revealed the most potent antibacterial activities in neem followed by clove and turmeric. Lantana and Aloe vera were least effective.

Keywords: plant extract, aedes, dengue, antimicrobial activity

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Authors: Gleda Kutrolli, Maksi Kutrolli, Etjon Meco

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SARS-CoV-2 virus is currently one of the most infectious pathogens for humans. It started in China at the end of 2019 and now it is spread in all over the world. The origin and diffusion of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic, is analysed based on the discussion of viral phylogeny theory. With the aim of understanding the spread of infection in the affected countries, it is crucial to modelize the spread of the virus and simulate its activity. In this paper, the prediction of coronavirus outbreak is done by using SIR model without vital dynamics, applying different numerical technique solving ordinary differential equations (ODEs). We find out that ABM and MRT methods perform better than other techniques and that the activity of the virus will decrease in April but it never cease (for some time the activity will remain low) and the next cycle will start in the middle July 2020 for Norway and Denmark, and October 2020 for Sweden, and September for Finland.

Keywords: forecasting, ordinary differential equations, SARS-COV-2 epidemic, SIR model

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Authors: M. D. Nirmani, K. L. N. Perera, G. H. Galhena

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Dengue has become one of the most important arbo-viral disease in all tropical and subtropical regions of the world. Aedes aegypti, is the principal vector of the virus, vary in both epidemiological and behavioral characteristics, which could be finely measured through DNA sequence comparison at their population level. Such knowledge in the population differences can assist in implementation of effective vector control strategies allowing to make estimates of the gene flow and adaptive genomic changes, which are important predictors of the spread of Wolbachia infection or insecticide resistance. As such, this study was undertaken to investigate the phylogenetic relationships of Ae. aegypti from Galle and Colombo, Sri Lanka, based on the ribosomal protein region which spans between two exons, in order to understand the geographical distribution of genetically distinct mosquito clades and its impact on mosquito control measures. A 320bp DNA region spanning from 681-930 bp, corresponding to the ribosomal protein, was sequenced in 62 Ae. aegypti larvae collected from Galle (N=30) and Colombo (N=32), Sri Lanka. The sequences were aligned using ClustalW and the haplotypes were determined with DnaSP 5.10. Phylogenetic relationships among haplotypes were constructed using the maximum likelihood method under Tamura 3 parameter model in MEGA 7.0.14 including three previously reported sequences of Australian (N=2) and Brazilian (N=1) Ae. aegypti. The bootstrap support was calculated using 1000 replicates and the tree was rooted using Aedes notoscriptus (GenBank accession No. KJ194101). Among all sequences, nineteen different haplotypes were found among which five haplotypes were shared between 80% of mosquitoes in the two populations. Seven haplotypes were unique to each of the population. Phylogenetic tree revealed two basal clades and a single derived clade. All observed haplotypes of the two Ae. aegypti populations were distributed in all the three clades, indicating a lack of genetic differentiation between populations. The Brazilian Ae. aegypti haplotype and one of the Australian haplotypes were grouped together with the Sri Lankan basal haplotype in the same basal clade, whereas the other Australian haplotype was found in the derived clade. Phylogram showed that Galle and Colombo Ae. aegypti populations are highly related to each other despite the large geographic distance (129 Km) indicating a substantial genetic similarity between them. This may have probably arisen from passive migration assisted by human travelling and trade through both land and water as the two areas are bordered by the sea. In addition, studied Sri Lankan mosquito populations were closely related to Australian and Brazilian samples. Probably this might have caused by shipping industry between the three countries as all of them are fully or partially enclosed by sea. For example, illegal fishing boats migrating to Australia by sea is perhaps a good mean of transportation of all life stages of mosquitoes from Sri Lanka. These findings indicate that extensive mosquito migrations occur between populations not only within the country, but also among other countries in the world which might be a main barrier to the successful vector control measures.

Keywords: Aedes aegypti, dengue control, extensive mosquito migration, haplotypes, phylogeny, ribosomal protein

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Authors: Asrat M.Belachew, Tiago Pereira, Institute of Mathematics, Computer Sciences, Avenida Trabalhador São Carlense, 400, São Carlos, 13566-590, Brazil

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Infectious diseases are among the most prominent threats to human beings. They cause morbidity and mortality to an individual and collapse the social, economic, and political systems of the whole world collectively. Mathematical models are fundamental tools and provide a comprehensive understanding of how infectious diseases spread and designing the control strategy to mitigate infectious diseases from the host population. Modeling the spread of infectious diseases using a compartmental model of inhomogeneous populations is good in terms of complexity. However, in the real world, there is a situation that accounts for heterogeneity, such as ages, locations, and contact patterns of the population which are ignored in a homogeneous setting. In this work, we study how classical an SEIR infectious disease spreading of the compartmental model can be extended by incorporating the mobility of population between heterogeneous cities during an outbreak of infectious disease. We have formulated an SEIR multi-cities epidemic spreading model using a system of 4k ordinary differential equations to describe the disease transmission dynamics in k-cities during the day and night. We have shownthat the model is epidemiologically (i.e., variables have biological interpretation) and mathematically (i.e., a unique bounded solution exists all the time) well-posed. We constructed the next-generation matrix (NGM) for the model and calculated the basic reproduction number R0for SEIR-epidemic spreading model with cities mobility. R0of the disease depends on the spectral radius mobility operator, and it is a threshold between asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium and disease persistence. Using the eigenvalue perturbation theorem, we showed that sending a fraction of the population between cities decreases the reproduction number of diseases in interconnected cities. As a result, disease transmissiondecreases in the population.

Keywords: SEIR-model, mathematical model, city mobility, epidemic spreading

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Authors: Seyedfateh Moradi

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Medical issues mark the beginning of a new form of epistemology in nineteenth-century Iran. The emergence of epidemic diseases led to the formation of a medical discourse and conflict over the body which displayed itself in the concept of health progress and development. The discourse attributed to this development in the health system defines the general structure of the given period. This discourse manifested itself in the conflict between the traditional and new medicine. The regulation and classification of body and population reveal the nature of this period. The government attempted to adapt itself to the modern and progressive discourse. This paper seeks to reveal part of this rupture and adaptation around epidemics and modern medical discourse. Also, accepting part of the traditional discourse in the new era, or adapting and integrating parts of it indicate a delegation of part of the power of traditional authorities. The delegation of power arose in the context of the discursive hegemony of Western modernism from which there was no escape. This provided the ground for the acceptance of government and emergence of other discourses. Finally, during the reign of Reza Shah (1922-1942), body and population planning changed into the key issues of government, which created serious tensions in society.

Keywords: epidemic, population, body, cholera, plague

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Authors: Aarti Sharma, Sarita Kumar, Pushplata Tripathi

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Aedes aegypti L. is one of the most important insect vectors in the world transmitting several diseases of concern; dengue fever, dengue haemorrhagic fever and yellow fever. Though since ages the control of dengue vector is primarily relied upon the use of synthetic chemical insecticides, the continued and indiscriminate use of insecticides for their control has received wide public apprehension because of multifarious problems including insecticide resistance, resurgence of pest species, environmental pollution, toxic hazards to humans and non-target organisms. These problems have necessitated the need to explore and develop alternative strategies using eco-friendly and bio-degradable plant products. Bio-insecticides, despite being the focus of research nowadays, have not been investigated much regarding their physiological effects on the mosquitoes. Thus, the present studies were carried out to investigate the anti-mosquito potential of the leaf and stem hexane extracts of Achyranthes aspera against early fourth instars of Aedes aegypti L and their effects on the histological architecture of their midgut. The larvicidal bioassays conducted with the A. aspera leaf hexane extracts revealed the respective LC30, LC50 and LC90 values of 66.545 ppm, 82.555 ppm, 139.817 ppm while the assays with stem hexane extracts resulted in respective values of 54.982 ppm, 68.133 ppm, 115.075 ppm. The studies clearly indicate the efficacy of extracts as larvicidal agents against Ae. aegypti, the stem extracts being found more effective than the leaf extracts. When the larvae assayed with extracts were investigated for the modifications in the histo-architecture of the midgut, the studies showed significant damage, shrinkage, distortion and vacuolization of gut tissues and peritrophic membrane causing disintegration of epithelial cells and cytoplasmic organelles; extent of toxicity and damage varied depending upon the concentration and exposure time period. These changes revealed appreciable stomach poison potential of A. aspera extracts against Ae. aegypti larvae, which may have also caused adverse impact on the growth and development of larvae. These effects were also found to be more pronounced with the stem extract than the leaf extract. Our findings may prove significant suggesting the use of A. aspera extract as a bio-insecticide against early fourth instar larvae of Ae. aegypti. Further studies are needed to identify the bioactive component in the extracts and to ascertain the use of component in the fields as anti-mosquito control agent.

Keywords: Achyranthes aspera, Aedes aegypti, histological architecture, larvicidal, midgut, stomach poison

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Authors: Abhishek Kumar, Nilam

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As we know that, time delay exists almost in every biological phenomenon. Therefore, in the present study, we propose a susceptible–infected–recovered (SIR) epidemic model along with time delay, modulated incidence rate of infection, and Holling Type II nonlinear treatment rate. The present model aims to provide a strategy to control the spread of epidemics. In the mathematical study of the model, it has been shown that the model has two equilibriums which are named as disease-free equilibrium (DFE) and endemic equilibrium (EE). Further, stability analysis of the model is discussed. To prove the stability of the model at DFE, we derived basic reproduction number, denoted by (R₀). With the help of basic reproduction number (R₀), we showed that the model is locally asymptotically stable at DFE when the basic reproduction number (R₀) less than unity and unstable when the basic reproduction number (R₀) is greater than unity. Furthermore, stability analysis of the model at endemic equilibrium has also been discussed. Finally, numerical simulations have been done using MATLAB 2012b to exemplify the theoretical results.

Keywords: time delayed SIR epidemic model, modulated incidence rate, Holling type II nonlinear treatment rate, stability

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Authors: Jang-hyun Oh, Kyoung-ho Choi, Jea-sun Lee

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The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic brought reconsiderations and doubts about urban density as compact cities became epidemic hot spots. Density, though, provides an upside in that medical services required to protect citizens against the spread of disease are concentrated within compact cities, which helps reduce the mortality rate. Sociodemographic characteristics are also a crucial factor in determining the vulnerability of the population, and the purpose of this study is to empirically discover how these three urban factors affect the severity of the epidemic impacts. The study aimed to investigate the influential relationships between urban factors and epidemic impacts and provide answers to whether superb medical service in compact cities can scale down the impacts of COVID-19. SEM (Structural Equation Modeling) was applied as a suitable research method for verifying interrelationships between factors based on theoretical grounds. The study accounted for 144 municipalities in South Korea during periods from the first emergence of COVID-19 to December 31st, 2022. The study collected data related to infection and mortality cases from each municipality, and it holds significance as primary research that enlightens the aspects of epidemic impact concerning urban settings and investigates for the first time the mediated effects of medical service. The result of the evaluation shows that compact cities are most likely to have lower sociodemographic vulnerability and better quality of medical service, while cities with low density contain a higher portion of vulnerable populations and poorer medical services. However, the quality of medical service had no significant influence in reducing neither the infection rate nor the mortality rate. Instead, density acted as the major influencing factor in the infection rate, while sociodemographic vulnerability was the major determinant of the mortality rate. Thus, the findings strongly paraphrase that compact cities, although with high infection rates, tend to have lower mortality rates due to less vulnerability in sociodemographics, Whereas death was more frequent in less dense cities due to higher portions of vulnerable populations such as the elderly and low-income classes. Findings suggest an important lesson for post-pandemic urban planning-intrinsic characteristics of urban settings, such as density and population, must be taken into account to effectively counteract future epidemics and minimize the severity of their impacts. Moreover, the study is expected to contribute as a primary reference material for follow-up studies that further investigate related subjects, including urban medical services during the pandemic.

Keywords: urban planning, sociodemographic vulnerability, medical service, COVID-19, pandemic

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Authors: Aussara Panya, Nunghathai Sawasdee, Mutita Junking, Chatchawan Srisawat, Kiattawee Choowongkomon, Pa-Thai Yenchitsomanus

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Dengue virus (DENV) infection is a global public health problem with approximately 100 million infected cases a year. Presently, there is no approved vaccine or effective drug available; therefore, the development of anti-DENV drug is urgently needed. The clinical reports revealing the positive association between the disease severity and viral titer has been reported previously suggesting that the anti-DENV drug therapy can possibly ameliorate the disease severity. Although several anti-DENV agents showed inhibitory activities against DENV infection, to date none of them accomplishes clinical use in the patients. The surface envelope (E) protein of DENV is critical for the viral entry step, which includes attachment and membrane fusion; thus, the blocking of envelope protein is an attractive strategy for anti-DENV drug development. To search the safe anti-DENV agent, this study aimed to search for novel peptide inhibitors to counter DENV infection through the targeting of E protein using a structure-based in silico design. Two selected strategies has been used including to identify the peptide inhibitor which interfere the membrane fusion process whereby the hydrophobic pocket on the E protein was the target, the destabilization of virion structure organization through the disruption of the interaction between the envelope and membrane proteins, respectively. The molecular docking technique has been used in the first strategy to search for the peptide inhibitors that specifically bind to the hydrophobic pocket. The second strategy, the peptide inhibitor has been designed to mimic the ectodomain portion of membrane protein to disrupt the protein-protein interaction. The designed peptides were tested for the effects on cell viability to measure the toxic to peptide to the cells and their inhibitory assay to inhibit the DENV infection in Vero cells. Furthermore, their antiviral effects on viral replication, intracellular protein level and viral production have been observed by using the qPCR, cell-based flavivirus immunodetection and immunofluorescence assay. None of tested peptides showed the significant effect on cell viability. The small peptide inhibitors achieved from molecular docking, Glu-Phe (EF), effectively inhibited DENV infection in cell culture system. Its most potential effect was observed for DENV2 with a half maximal inhibition concentration (IC50) of 96 μM, but it partially inhibited other serotypes. Treatment of EF at 200 µM on infected cells also significantly reduced the viral genome and protein to 83.47% and 84.15%, respectively, corresponding to the reduction of infected cell numbers. An additional approach was carried out by using peptide mimicking membrane (M) protein, namely MLH40. Treatment of MLH40 caused the reduction of foci formation in four individual DENV serotype (DENV1-4) with IC50 of 24-31 μM. Further characterization suggested that the MLH40 specifically blocked viral attachment to host membrane, and treatment with 100 μM could diminish 80% of viral attachment. In summary, targeting the hydrophobic pocket and M-binding site on the E protein by using the peptide inhibitors could inhibit DENV infection. The results provide proof of-concept for the development of antiviral therapeutic peptide inhibitors to counter DENV infection through the use of a structure-based design targeting conserved viral protein.

Keywords: dengue virus, dengue virus infection, drug design, peptide inhibitor

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Authors: Sukhvinder Kaur, Ashok Agarwal

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Background: For the first time in 2009, India was able to generate estimates of HIV incidence (the number of new HIV infections per year). Analysis of epidemic projections helped in revealing that the number of new annual HIV infections in India had declined by more than 50% during the last decade (GOI Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, 2010). Then, National AIDS Control Organisation (NACO) planned to scale up its efforts in generating projections through epidemiological analysis and modelling by taking recent available sources of evidence such as HIV Sentinel Surveillance (HSS), India Census data and other critical data sets. Recently, NACO generated current round of HIV estimates-2012 through globally recommended tool “Spectrum Software” and came out with the estimates for adult HIV prevalence, annual new infections, number of people living with HIV, AIDS-related deaths and treatment needs. State level prevalence and incidence projections produced were used to project consequences of the epidemic in spectrum. In presence of HIV estimates generated at state level in India by NACO, USIAD funded PIPPSE project under the leadership of NACO undertook the estimations and projections to district level using same Spectrum software. In 2011, adult HIV prevalence in one of the high prevalent States, Maharashtra was 0.42% ahead of the national average of 0.27%. Considering the heterogeneity of HIV epidemic between districts, two districts of Maharashtra – Thane and Mumbai were selected to estimate and project the number of People-Living-with-HIV/AIDS (PLHIV), HIV-prevalence among adults and annual new HIV infections till 2017. Methodology: Inputs in spectrum included demographic data from Census of India since 1980 and sample registration system, programmatic data on ‘Alive and on ART (adult and children)’,‘Mother-Baby pairs under PPTCT’ and ‘High Risk Group (HRG)-size mapping estimates’, surveillance data from various rounds of HSS, National Family Health Survey–III, Integrated Biological and Behavioural Assessment and Behavioural Sentinel Surveillance. Major Findings: Assuming current programmatic interventions in these districts, an estimated decrease of 12% points in Thane and 31% points in Mumbai among new infections in HRGs and migrants is observed from 2011 by 2017. Conclusions: Project also validated decrease in HIV new infection among one of the high risk groups-FSWs using program cohort data since 2012 to 2016. Though there is a decrease in HIV prevalence and new infections in Thane and Mumbai, further decrease is possible if appropriate programme response, strategies and interventions are envisaged for specific target groups based on this evidence. Moreover, evidence need to be validated by other estimation/modelling techniques; and evidence can be generated for other districts of the state, where HIV prevalence is high and reliable data sources are available, to understand the epidemic within the local context.

Keywords: HIV sentinel surveillance, high risk groups, projections, new infections

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Authors: Wang Yanli, Cheng Yun, Yang Jiarui

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Due to the separation of teachers and students, online teaching during the COVID-19 epidemic was faced with many problems, such as low enthusiasm of students, distraction, low learning atmosphere, and insufficient interaction between teachers and students. The essay designed the elaborate online learning activities of the course 'Research Methods of Educational Science' based on the APT model from three aspects of multiple assessment methods, a variety of teaching methods, and online learning environment and technology. Student's online learning experience was examined from the perception of online course, the perception of the online learning environment, and satisfaction after the course’s implementation. The research results showed that students have a positive overall evaluation of online courses, a high degree of engagement in learning, positive acceptance of online learning, and high satisfaction with it, but students hold a relatively neutral attitude toward online learning. And some dimensions in online learning experience were found to have positive influence on students' satisfaction with online learning. We suggest making the good design of online courses, selecting proper learning platforms, and conducting blended learning to improve students’ learning experience. This study has both theoretical and practical significance for the design, implementation, effect feedback, and sustainable development of online teaching in the post-epidemic era.

Keywords: APT model, online learning, online learning activities, learning experience

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Authors: Ali Gheshmi

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The highest rate of death, after World War II, is due to the Coronavirus epidemic and more than 2 million people have died since the epidemic outbreak in December 2019, so the word “death” is one of the highest frequency words in social media; moreover, the use of social media has grown due to quarantine and successive restrictions and lockdowns. The most important aspects of the approach used by this study include the analysis of Iranian social media users’ reactions to the images of those who died due to Coronavirus, investigating if seeing such images via social media is effective on the users’ perception of the closeness of death, and evaluating the extent to which the fear of Coronavirus death is instrumental in persuading users to observe health protocols or causing mental problems in social media users. Since the goal of this study is to discover how social media users perceive and react to the images of people who died of Coronavirus, the cultural studies approach is used Receipt analysis method and in-depth interviews will be used for collecting data from Iranian users; also, snowball sampling is used in this study. The probable results would show that cyberspace users experience the closeness of “death” more than any time else and to cope with these annoying images, avoid viewing them or if they view, it will lead them to suffer from mental problems.

Keywords: death, receipt analysis method, mental health, social media, Covid-19

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Authors: Waleed Alanzi

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The purpose of this qualitative study was to add to the existing literature and provide a more detailed understanding of the individual experiences and perceptions of 15 Deans at the University of Kuwait regarding their first year of planning, developing, and implementing crisis distance education (CDE) in response to the COVID-19 epidemic. An interpretative phenomenological approach was applied, using the thematic analysis of interview transcripts to describe the challenging journeys taken by each of the Deans from the first-person point of view. There was objective evidence, manifested by four primary themes (“Obstacles to the implementation of CDE”; “Planning for CDE”; “Training for CDE,” and “Future Directions”) to conclude that the faculty members, technical staff, administrative staff, and students generally helped each other to overcome the obstacles associated with planning and implementing CDE. The idea that CDE may turn homes into schools and parents into teachers was supported. The planning and implementation of CDE were inevitably associated with a certain amount of confusion, as well as disruptions in the daily routines of staff and students, as well as significant changes in their responsibilities. There were contradictory ideas about the future directions of distance education after the pandemic. Previous qualitative research on the implementation of CDE at higher education institutions in the Arab world has focused mainly on the experiences and perceptions of students; however, little is known about the experiences and perceptions of the students at the University of Kuwait during the COVID19 pandemic, providing a rationale and direction for future research.

Keywords: distance learning, qualitative research, COVID-19 epidemic, Kuwait university

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Authors: Kanica Goel, Nilam

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Infectious diseases are a leading cause of death worldwide and hence a great challenge for every nation. Thus, it becomes utmost essential to prevent and reduce the spread of infectious disease among humans. Mathematical models help to better understand the transmission dynamics and spread of infections. For this purpose, in the present article, we have proposed a nonlinear time-delayed SVIRS (Susceptible-Vaccinated-Infected-Recovered-Susceptible) mathematical model with nonlinear type incidence rate and nonlinear type treatment rate. Analytical study of the model shows that model exhibits two types of equilibrium points, namely, disease-free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium. Further, for the long-term behavior of the model, stability of the model is discussed with the help of basic reproduction number R₀ and we showed that disease-free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable if the basic reproduction number R₀ is less than one and unstable if the basic reproduction number R₀ is greater than one for the time lag τ≥0. Furthermore, when basic reproduction number R₀ is one, using center manifold theory and Casillo-Chavez and Song theorem, we showed that the model undergoes transcritical bifurcation. Moreover, numerical simulations are being carried out using MATLAB 2012b to illustrate the theoretical results.

Keywords: nonlinear incidence rate, nonlinear treatment rate, stability, time delayed SVIRS epidemic model

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Authors: Donna L. Roberts

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2019 marked 23 years since Purdue Pharma launched its flagship drug, OxyContin, that unleashed an unprecedented epidemic touching both celebrities and common citizens, metropolitan, suburbia and rural areas and all levels of socioeconomic status. From rural Appalachia to East LA individuals, families and communities have been devastated by a trajectory of addiction that often began with the legitimate prescription of a pain killer for anything from a tooth extraction to a sports injury to recovery from surgery or chronic arthritis. Far from being a serendipitous progression of events, the proliferation of this new breed of 'miracle drug' was instead a carefully crafted marketing program aimed at both the medical community and common citizens. This research represents and in-depth investigation of the evolution of the marketing, distribution and promotion of prescription opioids by pharmaceutical companies and its relationship to the propagation of the opioid crisis. Specifically, key components of Purdue Pharma’s aggressive marketing campaign, including its bonus system and sales incentives, were analyzed in the context of the sociopolitical environment that essential created the proverbial 'perfect storm' for the changing manner in which pain is treated in the U.S. The analyses of these series of events clearly indicate their role in first, the increase in prescription of opioids for non-terminal pain relief and subsequently, the incidence of related addiction, overdose, and death. Through this examination of the conditions that facilitated and maintained this drug crisis, perhaps we can begin to chart a course toward its resolution.

Keywords: addiction, opioid, opioid crisis, Purdue Pharma

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Authors: Kitoholi V. Zhimo

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Unlike the cases of cases of homosexuals, haemophilic and or drug users in USA, France, Africa and other countries, in India the first case of HIV/AIDS was detected in heterosexual female sex workers (FSW) in Chennai in 1986. This image played an important role in understanding HIV/AIDS scenario in the country. Similar to popular and dominant metaphors on HIV/AIDS such as ‘gay plague’, ‘new cancer’, ‘lethal disease’, ‘slim disease’, ‘foreign disease’, ‘junkie disease’, etc. around the world, the social construction of the virus was largely attributed to women in India. It was established that women particularly sex workers are ‘carrier’ and ‘transmitter’ of virus and were categorised as High Risk Groups (HRG’s) alongside homosexuals, transgenders and injecting drug users. Recent literature reveals growing rate of HIV infection among housewives since 1997 which revolutionised public health scenario in India. This means shift from high risk group to general public through ‘bridge population’ encompassing long distance truckers and migrant labours who at the expense of their nature of work and mobility comes in contact with HRG’s and transmit the virus to the general public especially women who are confined to the domestic space. As HIV epidemic expands, married women in monogamous relationship/marriage stand highly susceptible to infection with limited control, right and access over their sexual and reproductive health and planning. In context of Nagaland, a small state in North-eastern part of India HIV/AIDS transmission through injecting drug use dominated the early scene of the epidemic. However, paradigm shift occurred with declining trend of HIV prevalence among injecting drug users (IDU’s) over the past years with the introduction of Opioid Substitution Therapy (OST) and easy access/availability of syringes and injecting needles. Reflection on statistical data reveals that out of 36 states and union territories in India, the position of Nagaland in HIV prevalence among IDU’s has significantly dropped down from 6th position in 2003 to 16th position in 2017. The present face of virus in Nagaland is defined by (hetero) sexual mode of transmission which accounts for about 91% of as reported by Nagaland state AIDS control society (NSACS) in 2016 wherein young and married woman were found to be most affected leading to feminization of HIV/AIDS epidemic in the state. Thus, not only is HIV epidemic feminised but emerged victim to domestic violence which is more often accepted as normal part of heterosexual relationship. In the backdrop of these understanding, the present paper based on ethnographic fieldwork explores the plight, lived experiences and images of HIV+ve women with regard to sexual and reproductive rights against the backdrop of patriarchal system in Nagaland.

Keywords: HIV/AIDS, monogamy, Nagaland, sex worker disease, women

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Authors: Md. Mahadi Hasan Sany, Mumenunnessa Keya, Sharun Khushbu, Sheikh Abujar

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Since the beginning of China's economic reform, trade between the U.S. and China has grown rapidly, and has increased since China's accession to the World Trade Organization in 2001. The US imports more than it exports from China, reducing the trade war between China and the U.S. for the 2019 trade deficit, but in 2020, the opposite happens. In international and U.S. trade, Washington launched a full-scale trade war against China in March 2016, which occurred a catastrophic epidemic. The main goal of our study is to measure and predict trade relations between China and the U.S., before and after the arrival of the COVID epidemic. The ML model uses different data as input but has no time dimension that is present in the time series models and is only able to predict the future from previously observed data. The LSTM (a well-known Recurrent Neural Network) model is applied as the best time series model for trading forecasting. We have been able to create a sustainable forecasting system in trade between China and the US by closely monitoring a dataset published by the State Website NZ Tatauranga Aotearoa from January 1, 2015, to April 30, 2021. Throughout the survey, we provided a 180-day forecast that outlined what would happen to trade between China and the US during COVID-19. In addition, we have illustrated that the LSTM model provides outstanding outcome in time series data analysis rather than RFR and SVR (e.g., both ML models). The study looks at how the current Covid outbreak affects China-US trade. As a comparative study, RMSE transmission rate is calculated for LSTM, RFR and SVR. From our time series analysis, it can be said that the LSTM model has given very favorable thoughts in terms of China-US trade on the future export situation.

Keywords: RFR, China-U.S. trade war, SVR, LSTM, deep learning, Covid-19, export value, forecasting, time series analysis

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Authors: Javad Khaligh, Aghileh Heydari, Ali Akbar Heydari

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Mathematical epidemiological models for the spread of disease through a population are used to predict the prevalence of a disease or to study the impacts of treatment or prevention measures. Initial conditions for these models are measured from statistical data collected from a population since these initial conditions can never be exact, the presence of chaos in mathematical models has serious implications for the accuracy of the models as well as how epidemiologists interpret their findings. This paper confirms the chaotic behavior of a model for dengue fever and SI by investigating sensitive dependence, bifurcation, and 0-1 test under a variety of initial conditions.

Keywords: epidemiological models, SEIR disease model, bifurcation, chaotic behavior, 0-1 test

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Authors: Marziye Hadian, Alireza Jabbari

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Background: The World Health Organization has identified COVID-19 as a public health emergency and is urging governments to stop the virus transmission by adopting appropriate policies. In this regard, authorities have taken different approaches to cut the chain or controlling the spread of the disease. Now, the questions we are facing include what these approaches are? What tools should be used to implement each preventive protocol? In addition, what is the impact of each approach? Objective: The aim of this study was to determine the approaches to biological epidemics and related prevention tools with an emphasis on COVID-19 disease. Data sources: Databases including ISI web of science, PubMed, Scopus, Science Direct, Ovid, and ProQuest were employed for data extraction. Furthermore, authentic sources such as the WHO website, the published reports of relevant countries, as well as the Worldometer website were evaluated for gray studies. The time-frame of the study was from 1 December 2019 to 30 May 2020. Methods: The present study was a systematic study of publications related to the prevention strategies for the COVID-19 disease. The study was carried out based on the PRISMA guidelines and CASP for articles and AACODS for grey literature. Results: The study findings showed that in order to confront the COVID-19 epidemic, in general, there are three approaches of "mitigation", "active control" and "suppression" and four strategies of "quarantine", "isolation", "social distance" and "lockdown" in both individual and social dimensions to deal with epidemics. Selection and implementation of each approach requires specific strategies and has different effects when it comes to controlling and inhibiting the disease. Key finding: One possible approach to control the disease is to change individual behavior and lifestyle. In addition to prevention strategies, use of masks, observance of personal hygiene principles such as regular hand washing and non-contact of contaminated hands with the face, as well as an observance of public health principles such as sneezing and coughing etiquettes, safe extermination of personal protective equipment, must be strictly observed. Have not been included in the category of prevention tools. However, it has a great impact on controlling the epidemic, especially the new coronavirus epidemic. Conclusion: Although the use of different approaches to control and inhibit biological epidemics depends on numerous variables, however, despite these requirements, global experience suggests that some of these approaches are ineffective. The use of previous experiences in the world, along with the current experiences of countries, can be very helpful in choosing the accurate approach for each country in accordance with the characteristics of that country and lead to the reduction of possible costs at the national and international levels.

Keywords: novel corona virus, COVID-19, approaches, prevention tools, prevention strategies

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Authors: Brian F. Estidola, Alfredo A. Alcantara, Catherine del Cruz, Genelita S. Garcia

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This study aimed to investigate the effects of testosterone in the development and growth of Aedes aegypti as a main vector of dengue virus. There were three concentrations of testosterone: (0µM), (10µM), and (15µM) arranged randomly in two blocks. Each concentration houses 10 mosquitoes and monitored their development. The results showed that there were no significant differences on the effects of testosterone in emergence of larvae, mortality of eggs and larvae. However, it was shown that adults emerged from 15µM had a lower sex ratio than 10µM leading to the conclusion that there could be an optimal concentration of testosterone close to 10µM that could led to a high possibility of sex reversal of adult mosquitoes from female to male.

Keywords: mosquito, sex reversal, testosterone, ecdysterone

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Authors: Hsin-Yi Lo, Chia-Yu Hsu

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This article is the nursing experience of a multiple trauma case using Swanson's theory of caring, the nursing period is from May 31 to June 4, 2021, collect data through observation, written talks, interviews, listening, direct care and physical assessment, established cases with health problems such as acute pain, impaired tissue integrity, and anxiety. Nursing process including, evaluate the pain index with the pain assessment scale, assist in acupoint massage, use a corset to fix the wound, and give the patient listening to favorite radio programs to divert attention and relieve pain problems; promote wound healing and avoid infection by assessing wound condition and exudation, changing dressings with aseptic technique, and providing appropriate dressings; encourage patients to express their feelings, provide companionship, and assist in self-care and participation in treatment plans, to enable the case to overcome the anxiety caused by being admitted to the intensive care unit for the first time and not knowing about the disease, and assist the case to overcome the injury caused by the accident and return to normal life. There is no video equipment in the intensive care unit during the nursing period. In response to the problem that family visits cannot be opened during the epidemic, it is a limitation this time. It is recommended that the hospital take this into consideration in the future. In the post-epidemic era, it can reduce the risk of various infections for patients and family members. Traveling between home and hospital, improving the quality of high-quality and technological care.

Keywords: swanson's theory of caring, multiple trauma, anxiety, nursing experience

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