Search results for: Andrew R. Winters

Authors: Ksenija Dumičić, Anita Čeh Časni, Berislav Žmuk

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The aim of this paper is to select the most accurate forecasting method for predicting the future values of the unemployment rate in selected European countries. In order to do so, several forecasting techniques adequate for forecasting time series with trend component, were selected, namely: double exponential smoothing (also known as Holt`s method) and Holt-Winters` method which accounts for trend and seasonality. The results of the empirical analysis showed that the optimal model for forecasting unemployment rate in Greece was Holt-Winters` additive method. In the case of Spain, according to MAPE, the optimal model was double exponential smoothing model. Furthermore, for Croatia and Italy the best forecasting model for unemployment rate was Holt-Winters` multiplicative model, whereas in the case of Portugal the best model to forecast unemployment rate was Double exponential smoothing model. Our findings are in line with European Commission unemployment rate estimates.

Keywords: European Union countries, exponential smoothing methods, forecast accuracy unemployment rate

Procedia PDF Downloads 369

Authors: Gu Pang, Bartosz Gebka

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We forecast the demand of total container throughput at the Indonesia’s largest seaport, Tanjung Priok Port. We propose four univariate forecasting models, including SARIMA, the additive Seasonal Holt-Winters, the multiplicative Seasonal Holt-Winters and the Vector Error Correction Model. Our aim is to provide insights into whether forecasting the total container throughput obtained by historical aggregated port throughput time series is superior to the forecasts of the total throughput obtained by summing up the best individual terminal forecasts. We test the monthly port/individual terminal container throughput time series between 2003 and 2013. The performance of forecasting models is evaluated based on Mean Absolute Error and Root Mean Squared Error. Our results show that the multiplicative Seasonal Holt-Winters model produces the most accurate forecasts of total container throughput, whereas SARIMA generates the worst in-sample model fit. The Vector Error Correction Model provides the best model fits and forecasts for individual terminals. Our results report that the total container throughput forecasts based on modelling the total throughput time series are consistently better than those obtained by combining those forecasts generated by terminal-specific models. The forecasts of total throughput until the end of 2018 provide an essential insight into the strategic decision-making on the expansion of port's capacity and construction of new container terminals at Tanjung Priok Port.

Keywords: SARIMA, Seasonal Holt-Winters, Vector Error Correction Model, container throughput

Procedia PDF Downloads 503

Authors: Baharak Shakeri, Seyed Hashem Hosseini

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The weather in deserts is hot and dry in summers, and cold and dry in winters, and difference of temperature of nights and days sometimes reaches to 28°C. People of deserts have reached some solutions to cope with this climatic condition and to decrease its annoying features. Among these solutions are: constructing houses adjacent to each other, making tall walls, using mud brick and thatch cover, constructing domical arches, cellar, and wind catcher, which are together the devices to control the adversity of hot weather in summers and cold weather in winters. Using these solutions, the people of deserts have succeeded to make the best use with the least energy consumption, and to minimize the damage on the nature and environment, and in short, they are friends of the nature, which is a step toward the objectives of green buildings.

Keywords: desert house, green building, Iran, nature

Procedia PDF Downloads 337

Authors: D. Prangchumpol

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This research presents a forecasting method of requisition document demands for Military units by using Exponential Smoothing methods to analyze data. The data used in the forecast is an actual data requisition document of The Adjutant General Department. The results of the forecasting model to forecast the requisition of the document found that Holt–Winters’ trend and seasonality method of α=0.1, β=0, γ=0 is appropriate and matches for requisition of documents. In addition, the researcher has developed a requisition online system to improve the performance of requisition documents of The Adjutant General Department, and also ensuring that the operation can be checked.

Keywords: requisition, holt–winters, time series, royal thai army

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Authors: SHWETA SRIKUMAR

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Winter stratospheric dynamics is a highly variable and spectacular field of research in middle atmosphere. It is well believed that the interaction of energetic planetary waves with mean flow causes the temperature to increase in the stratosphere and associated circulation reversal. This wave driven sudden disturbances in the polar stratosphere is defined as Sudden Stratospheric Warming. The main objective of the present work is to investigate the mid-winter major stratospheric warming events on equatorial dynamics over Peninsular India. To explore the effect of mid-winter stratospheric warming on Indian region (60oE -100oE), we have selected the winters 2003/04, 2005/06, 2008/09, 2012/13 and 2018/19. This study utilized the data from ERA-Interim Reanalysis, Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) from NOAA and TRMM satellite data from NASA mission. It is observed that a sudden drop in OLR (averaged over Indian Region) occurs during the course of warming for the winters 2005/06, 2008/09 and 2018/19. But in winters 2003/04 and 2012/13, drop in OLR happens prior to the onset of major warming. Significant amplitude of planetary wave activity is observed in equatorial lower stratosphere which indicates the propagation of extra-tropical planetary waves from high latitude to equator. During the course of warming, a strong downward propagation of EP flux convergence is observed from polar to equator region. The polar westward wind reaches upto 20oN and the weak eastward wind dominates the equator during the winters 2003/04, 2005/06 and 2018/19. But in 2012/13 winter, polar westward wind reaches upto equator. The equatorial wind at 2008/09 is dominated by strong westward wind. Further detailed results will be presented in the conference.

Keywords: Equatorial dynamics, Outgoing Longwave Radiation, Sudden Stratospheric Warming, Planetary Waves

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Authors: Andrew R. Winters, Gregor J. Gassner

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A high-order numerical magentohydrodynamics (MHD) solver built upon a non-linear entropy stable numerical flux function that supports eight traveling wave solutions will be described. The method is designed to treat the divergence-free constraint on the magnetic field in a similar fashion to a hyperbolic divergence cleaning technique. The solver is especially well-suited for flows involving strong discontinuities due to its strong stability without the need to enforce artificial low density or energy limits. Furthermore, a new formulation of the numerical algorithm to guarantee positivity of the pressure during the simulation is described and presented. By construction, the solver conserves mass, momentum, and energy and is entropy stable. High spatial order is obtained through the use of a third order limiting technique. High temporal order is achieved by utilizing the family of strong stability preserving (SSP) Runge-Kutta methods. Main attributes of the solver are presented as well as details on an implementation of the new solver into the multi-physics, multi-scale simulation code FLASH. The accuracy, robustness, and computational efficiency is demonstrated with a variety of numerical tests. Comparisons are also made between the new solver and existing methods already present in FLASH framework.

Keywords: entropy stability, finite volume scheme, magnetohydrodynamics, pressure positivity

Procedia PDF Downloads 341

Authors: Ramin Vafadary, Maryam Khanbaghi

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Forecasting electricity load is important for various purposes like planning, operation, and control. Forecasts can save operating and maintenance costs, increase the reliability of power supply and delivery systems, and correct decisions for future development. This paper compares various time series methods to forecast 24 hours ahead of electricity load. The methods considered are the Holt-Winters smoothing, SARIMA Modeling, LSTM Network, Fbprophet, and Tensorflow probability. The performance of each method is evaluated by using the forecasting accuracy criteria, namely, the mean absolute error and root mean square error. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) residential energy consumption data is used to train the models. The results of this study show that the SARIMA model is superior to the others for 24 hours ahead forecasts. Furthermore, a Bagging technique is used to make the predictions more robust. The obtained results show that by Bagging multiple time-series forecasts, we can improve the robustness of the models for 24 hours ahead of electricity load forecasting.

Keywords: bagging, Fbprophet, Holt-Winters, LSTM, load forecast, SARIMA, TensorFlow probability, time series

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Authors: Lewis Mehl-Madrona, Josephine Conte, Barbara Mainguy

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We explore the historical connection of Andrew Taylor Still with the aboriginal nations placed in Missouri, notably the Shawnee, Pawnee, Kickapoo, Cherokee, and the Pottowattomy. Still was fluent in Shawnee and himself was part Native American (Lumbee). These nations had well-developed forms of hands-on healing as well as practicing lightning bone setting. They were more sophisticated than their European-derived neighbors in treating fractures and discolocations. We trace Still’s writings as evidence for his connectedness with these people and respect for their traditions. We explore the traditional hands-on therapies of these nations and discover that they are quite similar to osteopathy. We propose that Still was a translator of traditional manual medicine of the nations into the mainstream of American society. While, surely, he made his own personal contributions to manual medicine, he did not invent osteopathy de novo but relied on methods that were well-developed across centuries for his inspiration.

Keywords: indigenous healing, indigenous bodywork, American osteopathy, Andrew Taylor Still, Cherokee, Shawnee

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Authors: Hüseyin Biçer

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There are more than a thousand endemic plants growing in Turkey. On the other hand, apart from these plantsAnatolia is home to more plant diversitythan the neighboring countries due to its transitional zone. These plants become a part of traditional medicine in the hope of curing the people with whom they have lived for thousands of years. No matter how important the climate is for the plant, the diseases of the region have an important place in the plant's life. While the plants used for tea are in the foreground in regions with heavy winters, the use of raw plants and fruits is common in some gastrointestinal problems. The aim of this study is explaining using the area of endemic plants in Anatolia.

Keywords: anatolian traditional medicine, traditional medicine, anatolian medicine, herbs

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Authors: Haofei Li

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To support academic growth and foster love of learning, MathMates has been introduced for grade 6-8 students at Andrew Hamilton public school in 2022. The program is targeted at students from diverse backgrounds, particularly those underperforming in Pennsylvania System of School Assessment (PSSA) exams. Then, this study aims to evaluate the efficacy of MathMates by comparing student performance on the PSSA test, before and after the intervention. Through a randomized control trial, the study will collect associated costs using the ingredients method and measure the effectiveness for cost-effectiveness analysis. Text messages will be sent to parents/guardians as a reminder of the program and to encourage student participation. The findings of this study will provide valuable insights for funding organizations seeking to understand the impact and costs of math tutoring interventions on student academic achievement, which also emphasizes the importance of the collaborative efforts between higher education and local public schools.

Keywords: mathematics education, mathematics tutoring, college-community initiative, middle schools, Philadelphia public schools, after-school program, PSSA

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Authors: Anupalli Roja Rani, Pavithra Dasari

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Background: Among several, breast cancer has emerged as the most common female cancer in developing countries. It is the most common cause of cancer-related deaths worldwide among women. It is a molecularly and clinically heterogeneous disease. Moreover, it is a hormone–dependent tumor in which estrogens can regulate the growth of breast cells by binding with estrogen receptors (ERs). Moreover, the use of natural products in cancer therapeutics is due to their properties of biocompatibility and less toxicity. Plants are the vast reservoirs for various bioactive compounds. Coleus barbatus (Lamiaceae) contains anticancer properties against several cancer cell lines. Method: In the present study, an attempt is being made to enrich the knowledge of the anticancer activity of pure compounds extracted from Coleus barbatus (Andrew). On human breast cancer cell lines MCF-7. Here in, we are assessing the antiproliferative activity of Coleus barbatus (Andrew) plant extracts against MCF 7 and also evaluating their toxicity in normal human mammary cell lines such as Human Mammary Epithelial Cells (HMEC). The active fraction of plant extract was further purified with the help of Flash chromatography, Medium Pressure Liquid Chromatography (MPLC) and preparative High-Performance Liquid Chromatography (HPLC). The structure of pure compounds will be elucidated by using modern spectroscopic methods like Nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR), Electrospray Ionisation Mass Spectrometry (ESI-MS) methods. Later, the growth inhibition morphological assessment of cancer cells and cell cycle analysis of purified compounds were assessed using FACS. The growth and progression of signaling molecules HER2, GRP78 was studied by secretion assay using ELISA and expression analysis by flow cytometry. Result: Cytotoxic effect against MCF-7 with IC50 values were derived from dose response curves, using six concentrations of twofold serially diluted samples, by SOFTMax Pro software (Molecular device) and respectively Ellipticine and 0.5% DMSO were used as a positive and negative control. Conclusion: The present study shows the significance of various bioactive compounds extracted from Coleus barbatus (Andrew) root material. It acts as an anti-proliferative and shows cytotoxic effects on human breast cancer cell lines MCF7. The plant extracts play an important role pharmacologically. The whole plant has been used in traditional medicine for decades and the studies done have authenticated the practice. Earlier, as described, the plant has been used in the ayurveda and homeopathy medicine. However, more clinical and pathological studies must be conducted to investigate the unexploited potential of the plant. These studies will be very useful for drug designing in the future.

Keywords: coleus barbatus, HPLC, MPLC, NMR, MCF7, flash chromatograph, ESI-MS, FACS, ELISA.

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Authors: İsmail İnce, Mustafa Fener

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Natural stones used as building materials are exposed to various direct or indirect atmospheric effects depending on the climatic and seasonal conditions. Stones deteriorate partially or fully as a result of these effects. Freezing and thawing (F-T) process is the most important interaction. Nevşehir is located in the Central Anatolia region in Turkey and it has a typical continental climate with cold, snowy winters and hot, dry summers. Effects of freeze-thaw processes were widely observed on the building stones used in the region. Pyroclastic rocks, which are named as Nevşehir stone in the region, have been used in most of these buildings. The purpose of this study is to investigate the variations in engineering and textural properties of Nevşehir stone during different F-T cycles.

Keywords: Nevşehir stone, freeze-thaw, engineering properties, textural properties

Procedia PDF Downloads 979

Authors: Bin Su

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Auckland has a temperate climate with comfortable warm, dry summers and mild, wet winters. An Auckland school normally does not need air conditioning for cooling during the summer and only needs heating during the winter. The Auckland school building thermal design should more focus on winter thermal performance and indoor thermal comfort for energy efficiency. This field study of testing indoor and outdoor air temperatures, relative humidity and indoor surface temperatures of three classrooms with different envelopes were carried out in the Avondale College during the winter months in 2013. According to the field study data, this study is to compare and evaluate winter thermal performance and indoor thermal conditions of school buildings with different envelopes.

Keywords: building envelope, building mass effect, building thermal comfort, building thermal performance, school building

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Authors: Mark Andrew Tu, Raymond Olazo, Cybele Abad

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Cryptococcosis is an invasive infection most commonly found in patients who are immuno compromised. However, patients with this infection usually present with meningitis and rarely pulmonary infection in isolation. We present a case of a Filipino HIV patient who developed cryptococcal pneumonia without meningitis.

Keywords: Cryptococcal Pneumonia, HIV, Filipino, immune system

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Authors: Mohamed H. El-Sheikh, Hoda F. Zahran

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Olive tree (Olea europaea L.) is considered as a Mediterranean tree which belongs to genus Olea that may comprise about 35 species. In fact, the crop requires mild to cool winters with a chilling accumulation from November to February with average temperatures varying between two groups of accumulated chilling hours (h1) of less than 7.2 °C (C1) and other group (h2) of less than 10 °C (C2) for flower bud differentiation. This work aims at studying the impact of chilling accumulation hours on the fruit yield of olive trees in Borg El Arab City, Alexandria Governorate, Egypt as a case study. Trees were aged around 7 years in 2010 and were exposed to chilling accumulation hours of h1, which was average of 280 hours under C1, and average h2 was around 150 hours under C2 the resulted fruit yield was around 0.5 kg/tree. On the hand, trees were aged around 7 years at 2016 showed that when average of h1 was around 390 hours under C1 and average h2 was around 220 hours under C2 then fruit yield was around 10 kg/tree. Increasing of fruit yield proved chilling accumulation effect on olive trees.

Keywords: chilling accumulation, fruit yield, Olea europaea, olive

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Authors: Indu Gupta

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Climate change and global warming is most burning issue for “our common future”. For this common global interest. Countries organize conferences of government and nongovernment type. Human being destroying the non-renewable resources and polluting the renewable resources of planet for economic growth. Air pollution is mainly responsible for global warming and climate change .Due to global warming ice glaciers are shrinking and melting. Forests are shrinking, deserts expanding and soil eroding. The depletion of stratospheric ozone layer is depleting and hole in ozone layer that protect us from harmful ultra violet radiation. Extreme high temperature in summer and extreme low temperature and smog in winters, floods in rainy season. These all are indication of climate change. The level of carbon dioxide and other heat trapping gases in the atmosphere is increasing at high speed. Nation’s are worried about environmental degradation.

Keywords: environmental degradation, global warming, soil eroding, ultra-Violate radiation

Procedia PDF Downloads 374

Authors: Sarchil H. Qader, Andrew Harfoot, Mathias Kuepie, Sabrina Juran, Attila Lazar, Andrew J. Tatem

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The need for high-quality, reliable, and timely population data, including demographic information, to support the achievement of the sustainable development goals (SDGs) in all countries was recognized by the United Nations' 2030 Agenda for sustainable development. However, many low and middle-income countries lack reliable and recent census data. To achieve reliable and accurate census and survey outputs, up-to-date census enumeration areas and digital national sampling frames are critical. Census enumeration areas (EAs) are the smallest geographic units for collection, disseminating, and analyzing census data and are often used as a national sampling frame to serve various socio-economic surveys. Even for countries that are wealthy and stable, creating and updating EAs is a difficult yet crucial step in preparing for a national census. Such a process is commonly done manually, either by digitizing small geographic units on high-resolution satellite imagery or walking the boundaries of units, both of which are extremely expensive. We have developed a user-friendly tool that could be employed to generate draft EA boundaries automatically. The tool is based on high-resolution gridded population and settlement datasets, GPS household locations, building footprints and uses publicly available natural, man-made and administrative boundaries. Initial outputs were produced in Burkina Faso, Paraguay, Somalia, Togo, Niger, Guinea, and Zimbabwe. The results indicate that the EAs are in line with international standards, including boundaries that are easily identifiable and follow ground features, have no overlaps, are compact and free of pockets and disjoints, and the boundaries are nested within administrative boundaries.

Keywords: enumeration areas, national sampling frame, gridded population data, preEA tool

Procedia PDF Downloads 143

Authors: M. Panahian

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A global challenge which is of paramount significance today is the issue of devising innovative solutions to tackle the environmental issues, as well as more intelligent and foresightful consumption of and management of natural resources. Changes in global climate resulting from the burning of fossil fuel and the rise in the level of energy consumption are a few examples of environmental issues detrimental to any form of life on earth, which are aggravated year by year. Overall, energy-efficient designs and construction strategies can be studied at three scales: building, block, and city. Nevertheless, as the available literature suggests, the greatest emphasis has been on building and city scales, and little has been done as to the energy-efficient designs at block scale. Therefore, the aim of the current research is to investigate the influences of residential block scale envelope on the energy consumption in buildings. To this end, a case study of residential block scale has been selected in the city of Isfahan, in Iran, situated in a hot and dry climate with cold winters. Eventually, the most effective variables in energy consumption, concerning the block scale envelope, will be concluded.

Keywords: sustainability, passive energy saving solutions, residential block scale, energy efficiency

Procedia PDF Downloads 241

Authors: Michiko Iwasaki, Jane M. Endres, Julia Y. Richards, Andrew Futterman

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The present study aimed to examine college students’ happiness during COVID19-pandemic. Using the online survey data from 96 college students in the U.S., a regression analysis was conducted to predict college students’ happiness. The results indicated that a four-predictor model (optimism, college students’ subjective wellbeing, coronavirus stress, and spirituality) explained 57.9% of the variance in student’s subjective happiness, F(4,77)=26.428, p<.001, R2=.579, 95% CI [.41,.66]. The study suggests the importance of learned optimism among college students.

Keywords: COVID-19, optimism, spirituality, well-being

Procedia PDF Downloads 224

Authors: Kamal Khan Abro, Nasreen Memon, Attaullah Ansari, Mahpara Pirzada, Saima Pathan

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Jacobabad district has a hot desert climate with very hot summers and insignificant winters. The highest recorded temperature is 53.8 °C (127.0 °F), and the lowest recorded temperature is −4.9 °C (25.0 °F). Rainfall is short and mostly occurs in the monsoon season (July–September). Agriculture point of view Jacobabad district is very important district of Sindh Pakistan in which many types of crop and vegetables are cultivated annually such as Wheat, Rice, and Brassica, Cabbage, Spinach, Chili etc. which are badly attacked by many crops pest. Insects are very tiny, sensitive and most attractive mortal and most important collection of animal wildlife they play important role in biological control agent, biodiversity & agroecosystem. The brassica crop extremely infested by many different types of pest such as Aphids, Whitefly, Jassids, Thrips, Mealybug, scale insect pink worm, bollworm and borers Mealy bug, scale insect etc. These pests destroy many crops. The present study was carried out from Jacobabad district from January 2017 to April 2017.

Keywords: prevelance, green peach aphid, Jacobabad, Sindh Pakistan

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Authors: Nashrawan Naser Taha, Andrew M. Cox

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In a multi-cultural learning context, where ties are weak and dynamic, combining qualitative with quantitative research methods may be more effective. Such a combination may also allow us to answer different types of question, such as about people’s perception of the network. In this study the use of observation, interviews and photos were explored as ways of enhancing data from social network questionnaires. Integrating all of these methods was found to enhance the quality of data collected and its accuracy, also providing a richer story of the network dynamics and the factors that shaped these changes over time.

Keywords: mixed methods, social network analysis, multi-cultural learning, social network dynamics

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Authors: Maria Teresa Signes Pont, Jose Juan Cortes Plana

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Our proposal provides suitable modelling to the spread of plant pest and particularly to the propagation of Xylella fastidiosa in the almond trees. We compared the impact of temperature and humidity on the propagation of Xylella fastidiosa in various subspecies. Comparison between Balearic Islands and Alicante (Spain). Most sharpshooter and spittlebug species showed peaks in population density during the month of higher mean temperature and relative humidity (April-October), except for the splittlebug Clastoptera sp.1, whose adult population peaked from September-October (late summer and early autumn). The critical season is from when they hatch from the eggs until they are in the pre-reproductive season (January -April) to expand. We focused on winters in the egg state, which normally hatches in early March. The nymphs secrete a foam (mucilage) in which they live and that protects them from natural enemies of temperature changes and prevents dry as long as the humidity is above 75%. The interaction between the life cycles of vectors and vegetation influences the food preferences of vectors and is responsible for the general seasonal shift of the population from vegetation to trees and vice versa, In addition to the temperature maps, we have observed humidity as it affects the spread of the pest Xylella fastidiosa (Xf).

Keywords: xylella fastidiosa, almod tree, temperature, humidity, environmental model

Procedia PDF Downloads 174

Authors: Ejay Nsugbe, Andrew Starr, Ian Jennions, Cristobal Ruiz-Carcel

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This works investigates the possibility of using Acoustic Emissions (AE) to estimate the Particle Size Distribution (PSD) of a mixture of particles that comprise of particles of different densities and geometry. The experiments carried out involved the mixture of a set of glass and polyethylene particles that ranged from 150-212 microns and 150-250 microns respectively and an experimental rig that allowed the free fall of a continuous stream of particles on a target plate which the AE sensor was placed. By using a time domain based multiple threshold method, it was observed that the PSD of the particles in the mixture could be estimated.

Keywords: acoustic emissions, particle sizing, process monitoring, signal processing

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Authors: Vidya Padmakumar, N. C. Tharavathy

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The study was conducted from July 2015 to July 2017 to determine and understand the occurrence, frequency and diversity of avifauna in the Mallathahalli Lake of Bangalore Urban district. During the study period, 46 species of both terrestrial, as well as, aquatic birds belonging to 30 families were identified out of which 9 families were aquatic birds and 21 families were terrestrial birds. There were 4 species of migratory birds out of 46, showing diurnal migration. There was a significant reduce in the number of bird species both terrestrial and aquatic during the summer season and also varied greatly during winters and monsoon. Of the total 24 species of aquatic birds, Fulica atra and Tachybaptus ruficolis were the most common with 100% frequency and the least frequent species with 3.02% frequency was identified as Threskiornis melanocephalus. Among the 22 species of terrestrial birds, Acridotheres tristis had a frequency of 89% and the least frequent was Pycnonotus cafer (4.45%). The most commonly encountered bird species were from the families- Anatidae, Podicipedidae, Ardeidae, Phalacrocoracidae, Rallidae, Accipitridae, Scolopacidae, Charadridae, Laridae, Meropidae, Hirudinidae. All the birds surviving around the area are dependent on the wetland and crop vegetation surrounding the lake, which are deteriorating due to anthropogenic interventions and urbanization which are rising to its peak gradually causing the decline in the avifaunal diversity.

Keywords: Avifaunal diversity, Mallathahalli lake, seasonal migration, urbanization

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Authors: Andrew John Zeller, Francis Pouatcha

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Working according to the DevOps principle has gained in popularity over the past decade. While its extension DevSecOps started to include elements of cybersecurity, most real-life projects do not focus risk and security until the later phases of a project as teams are often more familiar with engineering and infrastructure services. To help bridge the gap between security and engineering, this paper will take six building blocks of cybersecurity and apply them to the DevOps approach. After giving a brief overview of the stages in the DevOps lifecycle, the main part discusses to what extent six cybersecurity blocks can be utilized in various stages of the lifecycle. The paper concludes with an outlook on how to stay up to date in the dynamic world of cybersecurity.

Keywords: information security, data security, cybersecurity, devOps, IT management

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Authors: Rabia Faridi, Rizwana Maqbool, Umara Sahar Rana, Zaheer Ahmad

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Climate change impacts agriculture, notably in Germany, where spring faba beans predominate. However, improved winter hardiness aligns with milder winters, enabling autumn-sown varieties. Genetic resistance to Ascochyta blight is vital for crop integration. Traditional breeding faces challenges due to complex inheritance. This study assessed 224 homozygous faba bean lines for Ascochyta resistance traits. To achieve h²>70%, 12 replicates were required (realized h²=87%). Genetic variation and strong trait correlations were observed. Five lines outperformed 29H, while three were highly susceptible. A genome-wide association study (GWAS) with 188 inbred lines and 2058 markers, including 17 guide SNP markers, identified 12 markers associated with resistance traits, potentially indicating new resistance genes. One guide marker (Vf-Mt1g014230-001) on chromosome III validated a known QTL. The guided marker approach complemented GWAS, facilitating marker-assisted selection for Ascochyta resistance. The Göttingen Winter Bean Population offers promise for resistance breeding.

Keywords: genome wide association studies, marker assisted breeding, faba bean, ascochyta blight

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Authors: Rastislav Stojsavljevic

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During most of the Middle Ages, warmer-than-average weather prevailed in the Balkan Peninsula in Southeast Europe. This period is also called Medieval Climate Optimum. It had its most noticeable phases during the 12th and 13th centuries. Due to climatic conditions, the appearance of unstable weather was observed. Strong storms and hail were a frequent occurrence. From the 9th to the 15th century, the Christian religion dominated the Balkan Peninsula. From East-West Schism (1054 A.D.), most of the people in Balkan states belonged to Eastern Orthodox churches: Byzantium, Bulgaria, Serbia and Bosnia. Medieval Croatia and the coastal part (the Adriatic Sea) of Zeta belonged to the Roman Catholic church. In addition to the dominant Christian religion, a lot of pagan Slavic cults remained in the Balkans during the Middle Ages. Various superstitions were a regular occurrence. They were dominant during severe storms, floods, great droughts, the appearance of comets, etc. In this paper, the appearance of warm and cold temperature spells will be investigated. In the second half of the 14th century, the Little Ice Age began and lasted for several centuries. The period of the first half of the 15th century is characterized by cold and snowy winters. Hunger was a regular occurrence. This has given rise to many beliefs which will be researched and mentioned in the paper.

Keywords: the Balkans, religion, medieval climate optimum, little ice age

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Authors: Andrew Hall, Paul Clarkson

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Climate change is predicted to increase the number of extreme weather events intensifying the strain on Railway Earthworks. This paper describes the use of Distributed Rayleigh Sensing to monitor low frequency activity on a vulnerable earthworks sectionprone to landslides alongside a railway line in Northern Spain. The vulnerable slope is instrumented with conventional slope stability sensors allowing an assessment to be conducted of the application of Distributed Rayleigh Sensing as an earthwork condition monitoring tool to enhance the resilience of railway networks.

Keywords: condition monitoring, railway earthworks, distributed rayleigh sensing, climate change

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Authors: Trayan Kushev, E. Shaunn Mattingly, Andrew S. Manikas

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This study utilizes computer-aided text analysis (CATA) on the descriptions of 248,614 Kickstarter crowdfunding campaigns to reveal that backers are more likely to provide funding to projects that contain a higher percentage of creativity-speak words. Further, this relationship is observed to be stronger for product-based campaigns (e.g., games, technology, design) and weaker for content-based campaigns (e.g., film, music, publishing). In addition, both positive linguistic tone and the use of words expressing gratitude in the text of the campaign strengthen the positive effect of creativity-speak on campaign success.

Keywords: creativity-speak, crowdfunding, entrepreneurship, gratitude, tone

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Authors: Kholod J. Alotaibi, Andrew M. Gravell

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Usability is an important software quality that is often neglected at the design stage. Although methods exist to incorporate elements of usability engineering, there is a need for more balanced usability focused methods that can enhance the experience of software usability for users. In this regard, the potential for Usage-Centered Design is explored with respect to requirements gathering and is shown to lead to high software usability besides other benefits. It achieves this through its focus on usage, defining essential use cases, by conducting task modeling, encouraging user collaboration, refining requirements, and so on. The requirements gathering process in UgCD is described in detail.

Keywords: requirements gathering, usability, usage-centred design, computer science

Procedia PDF Downloads 357