Search results for: Aminuddin Kasim
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 21

Search results for: Aminuddin Kasim

21 The Use of Artificial Intelligence to Harmonization in the Lawmaking Process

Authors: Supriyadi, Andi Intan Purnamasari, Aminuddin Kasim, Sulbadana, Mohammad Reza

Abstract:

The development of the Industrial Revolution Era 4.0 brought a significant influence in the administration of countries in all parts of the world, including Indonesia, not only in the administration and economic sectors but the ways and methods of forming laws should also be adjusted. Until now, the process of making laws carried out by the Parliament with the Government still uses the classical method. The law-making process still uses manual methods, such as typing harmonization of regulations, so that it is not uncommon for errors to occur, such as writing errors, copying articles and so on, things that require a high level of accuracy and relying on inventory and harmonization carried out manually by humans. However, this method often creates several problems due to errors and inaccuracies on the part of officers who harmonize laws after discussion and approval; this has a very serious impact on the system of law formation in Indonesia. The use of artificial intelligence in the process of forming laws seems to be justified and becomes the answer in order to minimize the disharmony of various laws and regulations. This research is normative research using the Legislative Approach and the Conceptual Approach. This research focuses on the question of how to use Artificial Intelligence for Harmonization in the Lawmaking Process.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, harmonization, laws, intelligence

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20 The Legal Position of Criminal Prevention in the Metaverse World

Authors: Andi Intan Purnamasari, Supriyadi, Sulbadana, Aminuddin Kasim

Abstract:

Law functions as social control. Providing arrangements not only for legal certainty, but also in the scope of justice and expediency. The three values ​​achieved by law essentially function to bring comfort to each individual in carrying out daily activities. However, it is undeniable that global conditions have changed the orientation of people's lifestyles. Some people want to ensure their existence in the digital world which is popularly known as the metaverse. Some countries even project their city to be a metaverse city. The order of life is no longer limited to the real space, but also to the cyber world. Not infrequently, legal events that occur in the cyber world also force the law to position its position and even prevent crime in cyberspace. Through this research, conceptually it provides a view of the legal position in crime prevention in the Metaverse world. when the law acts to regulate the situation in the virtual world, of course some people will feel disturbed, this is due to the thought that the virtual world is a world in which an avatar can do things that cannot be done in the real world, or can be called a world without boundaries. Therefore, when the law is present to provide boundaries, of course the concept of the virtual world itself becomes no longer a cyber world that is not limited by space and time, it becomes a new order of life. approach, approach, approach, approach, and approach will certainly be the method used in this research.

Keywords: crime, cyber, metaverse, law

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19 Screening of Metal Chloride Anion-based Ionic Liquids for Direct Conversion of Hydrogen Sulfide by COSMO-RS

Authors: Muhammad Syahir Aminuddin, Zakaria Man, Mohamad Azmi Bustam Khalil

Abstract:

In order to identify the best possible reaction media for performing H₂S conversion, a total number of 300 different ILs from a combination of 20 cations and 15 anions were screened via COSMO-RS model simulations. By COSMO-RS method, thermodynamic and physicochemical properties of 300 ILs, such as Henry's law constants, activity coefficient, selectivity, capacity, and performance index, are obtained and analyzed. Thus, by comparing the performance of ILs via COSMO-RS, a series of TSILs containing cation of [P66614] with metal chloride anions such as Fe, Ga, and Al were chosen and selected for synthesis based on their performance predicted by COSMO-RS and their economic values. Consequently, the physiochemical properties such as density, viscosity, thermal properties, as well as H₂S absorptive oxidation performances in those TSILs will be systematically investigated.

Keywords: conversion of hydrogen sulfide, hydrogen sulfide, H₂S, sour natural gas, task specific ionic liquids

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18 Zero-Dissipative Explicit Runge-Kutta Method for Periodic Initial Value Problems

Authors: N. Senu, I. A. Kasim, F. Ismail, N. Bachok

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In this paper zero-dissipative explicit Runge-Kutta method is derived for solving second-order ordinary differential equations with periodical solutions. The phase-lag and dissipation properties for Runge-Kutta (RK) method are also discussed. The new method has algebraic order three with dissipation of order infinity. The numerical results for the new method are compared with existing method when solving the second-order differential equations with periodic solutions using constant step size.

Keywords: dissipation, oscillatory solutions, phase-lag, Runge-Kutta methods

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17 Attitude of Beef Cattle Farmers toward Biosecurity Practices

Authors: Veronica Sri Lestari, Sitti Nurani Sirajuddin, Kasmiyati Kasim

Abstract:

The purpose of this research was to know the attitude of beef cattle farmers toward bio security practices. This research was conducted in Barru regency, South Sulawesi province, Indonesia, in 2014. Thirty beef cattle farmers were selected through random sampling. Primary and secondary data were collected through report, observation and deep interview by using questionnaire. Bio security practices consisted of 35 questions. Every answer of the question was scored based on three categories: score 1 (not important), score 2 (important) and 3 (very important). The results of this research showed that the attitude of beef cattle farmers toward bio security practices was categorized as important.

Keywords: attitude, beef cattle, biosecurity, farmers

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16 CFD Simulation on Gas Turbine Blade and Effect of Twisted Hole Shape on Film Cooling Effectiveness

Authors: Thulodin Mat Lazim, Aminuddin Saat, Ammar Fakhir Abdulwahid, Zaid Sattar Kareem

Abstract:

Film cooling is one of the cooling systems investigated for the application to gas turbine blades. Gas turbines use film cooling in addition to turbulence internal cooling to protect the blades outer surface from hot gases. The present study concentrates on the numerical investigation of film cooling performance for a row of twisted cylindrical holes in modern turbine blade. The adiabatic film effectiveness and the heat transfer coefficient are determined numerical on a flat plate downstream of a row of inclined different cross section area hole exit by using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD). The swirling motion of the film coolant was induced the twisted angle of film cooling holes, which inclined an angle of α toward the vertical direction and surface of blade turbine. The holes angle α of the impingement mainstream was changed from 90°, 65°, 45°, 30° and 20°. The film cooling effectiveness on surface of blade turbine wall was measured by using 3D Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD). Results showed that the effectiveness of rectangular twisted hole has the effectiveness among other cross section area of the hole at blowing ratio (0.5, 1, 1.5 and 2).

Keywords: turbine blade cooling, film cooling, geometry shape of hole, turbulent flow

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15 Application of Facilities Management Practice in High Rise Commercial Properties: Jos in Perpective

Authors: Aliyu Ahmad Aliyu, Abubakar Ahmad, Muhammad Umar Bello, Rozilah Kasim, David Martin

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The article studied the application of facilities management practice in high rise commercial properties. Convenience sampling technique was used in administering questionnaires to the 60 respondents who responded to the survey. It was found out that the extent of application of facilities management in the subject properties is better described as below average. Similarly, the most frequently tools of facilities management in use and employed in the properties were outsourcing and in-house sourcing. This was influenced by the level of their familiarity with the tools. Planned and Preventive maintenance should be taken regularly in other to enhance the effectiveness of the facilities management and to satisfy both the owner and customers of the organization.

Keywords: commercial properties, facilities management, high-rise buildings, Jos metropolis and outsourcing

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14 Fluorescence Sensing as a Tool to Estimate Palm Oil Quality and Yield

Authors: Norul Husna A. Kasim, Siva K. Balasundram

Abstract:

The gap between ‘actual yield’ and ‘potential yield’ has remained a problem in the Malaysian oil palm industry. Ineffective maturity assessment and untimely harvesting have compounded this problem. Typically, the traditional method of palm oil quality and yield assessment is destructive, costly and laborious. Fluorescence-sensing offers a new means of assessing palm oil quality and yield non-destructively. This work describes the estimation of palm oil quality and yield using a multi-parametric fluorescence sensor (Multiplex®) to quantify the concentration of secondary metabolites, such as anthocyanin and flavonoid, in fresh fruit bunches across three different palm ages (6, 9, and 12 years-old). Results show that fluorescence sensing is an effective means of assessing FFB maturity, in terms of palm oil quality and yield quantifications.

Keywords: anthocyanin, flavonoid fluorescence sensor, palm oil yield and quality

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13 Perceptions of Farmers against Liquid Fertilizer Benefits of Beef Cattle Urine

Authors: Sitti Nurani Sirajuddin, Ikrar Moh. Saleh, Kasmiyati Kasim

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The aim of this study was to know the perception of livestock farmers on the use of liquid organic fertilizer from urine of cattle at Sinjai Regency, South Sulawesi Province. The choice of location for a farmer group manufactures and markets liquid organic fertilizer from cattle urine. This research was conducted in May to July 2013.The population were all livestock farmers who use organic liquid fertilizer from cattle urine samples while livestock farmers who are directly involved in the manufacture of liquid organic fertilizer totaled 42 people. Data were collected through observation and interview. Data were analyzed descriptively. The results showed that the perception of livestock farmers of using liquid organic fertilizer from cattle urine provide additional revenue benefits, cost minimization farming, reducing environmental pollution which not contrary to the customs.

Keywords: liquid organic fertilizer, perceptions, farmers, beef cattle

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12 Parental Discourse on Childhood Vaccination Programme: A Case Study

Authors: Tengku Farah Petri Tengku Mahmood, Shameem Rafik-Galea, Zalina Mohd Kasim, Norlijah Othman

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Childhood vaccination programme is mandatory in Malaysia. However, the decision to vaccinate or not vaccinate children is still left to the parents. Presently, there are parents who are opting out of vaccination claiming that it causes autism and other chronic disorders despite inconclusive evidence. There appears to be a dangerous trend among some Malaysian parents to not vaccinate their children and to not participate in the childhood vaccination programme. This study presents preliminary findings of parental discourse on childhood vaccination programme through the perspective of the Integrated Threat Theory. An in-depth interview was carried out to investigate a parent’s concern of the effects of childhood vaccination on children. A thematic discourse analysis was used to analyse the transcribed data. The emerging themes based on the analysis and their relevance to our understanding of a parent’s concerns of the effects of childhood vaccination on children are discussed.

Keywords: case study, parental discourse, thematic discourse analysis, childhood vaccination

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11 Experimental Measurements for the Effect of Dilution Procedure in Blood Esterases as Animals Biomarker for Exposure to Organophosphate Compounds

Authors: Kasim Sakran Abass

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This main aim of this study was to confirm and extend our current knowledge about the effects of dilutions on esterases activities in the blood for birds with respect to protecting the enzyme from organophosphate inhibition. There were significantly higher esterases activities in dilution 1:10 in all blood samples from quail, duck, and chick compared to other dilutions (1:5, 1:15, 1:20, and 1:25). Furthermore, our results also pointed to the importance of estimating different dilutions effects prior to using in birds as biomarker tools of environmental exposure. Concentration–inhibition curves were determined for the inhibitor in the presence of dilutions 1:5, 1:10 plus 1:15 (to stimulate carboxylesterase). Point estimates (concentrations calculated to produce 20, 50, and 80% inhibition) were compared across conditions and served as a measure of esterase-mediated detoxification. Among the thiol esters (dilution 1:5) was observed to have the highest specificity constant (kcat/Km), and the Km and kcat values were 176 μM and 16,765 s−1, respectively for S-phenyl thioacetate ester, while detected in (dilution 1:15) the lowest specificity constant (kcat/Km), and the Km and kcat values were 943 μM and 1154 s−1, respectively for acetylthiocholine iodide ester.

Keywords: esterase, animal, dilution, pesticides

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10 Influence of Leadership Tenure and Succession on Institutional Goal Attainment in the University of Ibadan, Nigeria (2006-2015)

Authors: Ismial A. Raji, Blessing Egbezieme Oladejo, Babatunde Kasim Oladele

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The study investigated the influence of leadership succession and tenure on goal attainment in the University of Ibadan. Leadership styles, tenure politics, organization succession, leadership succession, goal attainment in terms of research, teaching and public services were considered. The study adopted a descriptive survey design. The population of the study was 250 consisting 90 academic staff, 100 Senior Non-Teaching Staff and 60 Junior Non-Teaching Staff. Questionnaire was the instrument used to collect data. The instrument reliability coefficient was 0.88. Data collected were analysed with descriptive statistics. The result revealed that a significant relationship exist between leadership succession, tenure and goal attainment (r= .648, 0.466 and 0.479p< .0.5) Also, There was no statistical significant interaction between the effects of leadership tenure and leadership succession on goal attainment, F (38, 131) = 1.356, p = .104. The main influence of the independent variables on goal attainment were significant at F (24, 131) = 1.682, p=.034 and F (26, 131) = 2.182, p=.002. The study concluded that leadership succession and tenure are key factors for goal attainment in the University of Ibadan. The study recommended that an effective leadership succession and tenure processes should be maintained and sustained by higher institutions of learning.

Keywords: leadership tenure, style, succession, institutional goal

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9 Investigation of the Influence of Student’s Characteristics on Mathematics Achievement in Junior Secondary School in Ibadan, Nigeria

Authors: Babatunde Kasim Oladele

Abstract:

This current study investigated students’ characteristics as factors that influence Mathematics Achievement of junior secondary school students. The study adopted a descriptive survey design. The population of the study was one hundred and twenty-three (123) JSS students of secondary schools in Ibadan North Local Government in Oyo State. A Mathematics achievement test and three questionnaires on student’s self-efficacy belief, attitude, and learning style were the instruments used. Prior to the administration of the constructed mathematics achievement test, 100-item mathematics was subjected to the expert review, and items analysis was carried out. Fifty items were retained. The Cronbach Alpha reliability coefficients of the instruments were 0.71, 0.76, and 0.83, respectively. Collected data were analysed using the frequency count, percentages, mean, standard deviation, and Path Analysis in Amos SPSS Version 20. Students characteristics: gender, age, self-efficacy, attitude and learning style had positive direct effects on students’ achievement in Mathematics as indicated by their respective beta weights (β = 0.36, 0.203, 0.92, 0.079, 0.69 p < 0.05). Consequently, the study concluded that student’s characteristics (Age, gender, and learning style) explained a significant part of the variability in students’ achievement in Mathematics.

Keywords: mathematics achievement, students’ characteristics, junior secondary school, Ibadan

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8 Temperature Distribution in Friction Stir Welding Using Finite Element Method

Authors: Armansyah, I. P. Almanar, M. Saiful Bahari Shaari, M. Shamil Jaffarullah, Nur’amirah Busu, M. Arif Fadzleen Zainal Abidin, M. Amlie A. Kasim

Abstract:

Temperature distribution in Friction Stir Welding (FSW) of 6061-T6 Aluminum Alloy is modeled using the Finite Element Method (FEM). In order to obtain temperature distribution in the welded aluminum plates during welding operation, transient thermal finite element analyses are performed. Heat input from tool shoulder and tool pin are considered in the model. A moving heat source with a heat distribution simulating the heat generated by frictions between tool shoulder and workpiece is used in the analysis. Three-dimensional model for simulated process is carried out by using Altair HyperWork, a commercially available software. Transient thermal finite element analyses are performed in order to obtain the temperature distribution in the welded Aluminum plates during welding operation. The developed model was then used to show the effect of various input parameters such as total rate of welding speed and rotational speed on temperature distribution in the workpiece.

Keywords: frictions stir welding, temperature distribution, finite element method, altair hyperwork

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7 Cytotoxicity of Nano β–Tricalcium Phosphate (β-TCP) on Human Osteoblast (hFOB1.19)

Authors: Jer Ping Ooi, Shah Rizal Bin Kasim, Nor Aini Saidin

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The objective of this study was to synthesize nano-sized β-tricalcium phosphate (β-TCP) powder and assess its cytotoxic effects on human osteoblast (hFOB1.19) by using four cytotoxicity assays, namely, lactose dehydrogenase (LDHe), tetrazolium hydroxide (XTT), neutral red (NR), and sulforhodamine B (SRB) assays. β-tricalcium phosphate (β-TCP) is a calcium phosphate compound commonly used as an implant material. To date, bulk-sized β-TCP is reported to be readily tolerated by the osteogenic cells and body based on in vitro, in vivo experiments and clinical studies. However, to what extent of nano-sized β-TCP will react in models as compared to bulk β-TCP is yet to be investigated. Thus, in this project, the cells were treated with nano β-TCP powder within a range of concentrations from 0 to 1000 μg/mL for 24, 48, and 72 h. The cytotoxicity tests showed that loss of cell viability ( > 50%) was high for hFOB1.19 cells in all assays. Cell cycle and apoptosis analysis of hFOB1.19 cells revealed that 50 μg/mL of the compound led to 30.5% of cells being apoptotic after 72 h of incubation, and the percentage was increased to 58.6% when the concentration was increased to 200 μg/mL. When the incubation time was increased from 24 to 72 h, the percentage of apoptotic cells increased from 17.3% to 58.6% when the hFOB1.19 were exposed with 200 μg/mL of nano β-TCP powder. Thus, both concentration and exposure duration affected the cytotoxicity effects of the nano β-TCP powder on hFOB1.19. We hypothesize that these cytotoxic effects on hFOB1.19 are related to the nano-scale size of the β-TCP.

Keywords: β-tricalcium phosphate, hFOB1.19, adipose-derived mesenchymal stem cells, cytotoxicity

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6 Iron Catalyst for Decomposition of Methane: Influence of Al/Si Ratio Support

Authors: A. S. Al-Fatesh, A. A. Ibrahim, A. M. AlSharekh, F. S. Alqahtani, S. O. Kasim, A. H. Fakeeha

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Hydrogen is the expected future fuel since it produces energy without any pollution. It can be used as a fuel directly or through the fuel cell. It is also used in chemical and petrochemical industry as reducing agent or in hydrogenation processes. It is produced by different methods such as reforming of hydrocarbon, electrolytic method and methane decomposition. The objective of the present paper is to study the decomposition of methane reaction at 700°C and 800°C. The catalysts were prepared via impregnation method using 20%Fe and different proportions of combined alumina and silica support using the following ratios [100%, 90%, 80%, and 0% Al₂O₃/SiO₂]. The prepared catalysts were calcined and activated at 600 OC and 500 OC respectively. The reaction was carried out in fixed bed reactor at atmospheric pressure using 0.3g of catalyst and feed gas ratio of 1.5/1 CH₄/N₂ with a total flow rate 25 mL/min. Catalyst characterizations (TPR, TGA, BET, XRD, etc.) have been employed to study the behavior of catalysts before and after the reaction. Moreover, a brief description of the weight loss and the CH₄ conversions versus time on stream relating the different support ratios over 20%Fe/Al₂O₃/SiO₂ catalysts has been added as well. The results of TGA analysis provided higher weights losses for catalysts operated at 700°C than 800°C. For the 90% Al₂O₃/SiO₂, the activity decreases with the time on stream using 800°C reaction temperature from 73.9% initial CH₄ conversion to 46.3% for a period of 300min, whereas the activity for the same catalyst increases from 47.1% to 64.8% when 700°C reaction temperature is employed. Likewise, for 80% Al₂O₃/SiO₂ the trend of activity is similar to that of 90% Al₂O₃/SiO₂ but with a different rate of activity variation. It can be inferred from the activity results that the ratio of Al₂O₃ to SiO₂ is crucial and it is directly proportional with the activity. Whenever the Al/Si ratio decreases the activity declines. Indeed, the CH₄ conversion of 100% SiO₂ support was less than 5%.

Keywords: Al₂O₃, SiO₂, CH₄ decomposition, hydrogen, iron

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5 Economics of Open and Distance Education in the University of Ibadan, Nigeria

Authors: Babatunde Kasim Oladele

Abstract:

One of the major objectives of the Nigeria national policy on education is the provision of equal educational opportunities to all citizens at different levels of education. With regards to higher education, an aspect of the policy encourages distance learning to be organized and delivered by tertiary institutions in Nigeria. This study therefore, determines how much of the Government resources are committed, how the resources are utilized and what alternative sources of funding are available for this system of education. This study investigated the trends in recurrent costs between 2004/2005 and 2013/2014 at University of Ibadan Distance Learning Centre (DLC). A descriptive survey research design was employed for the study. Questionnaire was the research instrument used for the collection of data. The population of the study was 280 current distance learning education students, 70 academic staff and 50 administrative staff. Only 354 questionnaires were correctly filled and returned. Data collected were analyzed and coded using the frequencies, ratio, average and percentages were used to answer all the research questions. The study revealed that staff salaries and allowances of academic and non-academic staff represent the most important variable that influences the cost of education. About 55% of resources were allocated to this sector alone. The study also indicates that costs rise every year with increase in enrolment representing a situation of diseconomies of scale. This study recommends that Universities who operates distance learning program should strive to explore other internally generated revenue option to boost their revenue. University of Ibadan, being the premier university in Nigeria, should be given foreign aid and home support, both financially and materially, to enable the institute to run a formidable distance education program that would measure up in planning and implementation with those of developed nation.

Keywords: open education, distance education, University of Ibadan, Nigeria, cost of education

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4 Survey on Awareness, Knowledge and Practices: Managing Osteoporosis among Practitioners in a Tertiary Hospital, Malaysia

Authors: P. H. Tee, S. M. Zamri, K. M. Kasim, S. K. Tiew

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This study evaluates the management of osteoporosis in a tertiary care government hospital in Malaysia. As the number of admitted patients having osteoporotic fractures is on the rise, osteoporotic medications are an increasing financial burden to government hospitals because they account for half of the orthopedic budget and expenditure. Comprehensive knowledge among practitioners is important to detect early and avoid this preventable disease and its serious complications. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the awareness, knowledge, and practices in managing osteoporosis among practitioners in Hospital Tengku Ampuan Rahimah (HTAR), Klang. A questionnaire from an overseas study in managing osteoporosis among primary care physicians is adapted to Malaysia’s Clinical Practice Guideline of Osteoporosis 2012 (revised 2015) and international guidelines were distributed to all orthopedic practitioners in HTAR Klang (including surgeons, orthopedic medical officers), endocrinologists, rheumatologists and geriatricians. The participants were evaluated on their expertise in the diagnosis, prevention, treatment decision and medications for osteoporosis. Collected data were analyzed for all descriptive and statistical analyses as appropriate. All 45 participants responded to the questionnaire. Participants scored highest on expertise in prevention, followed by diagnosis, treatment decision and lastly, medication. Most practitioners stated that own-initiated continuing professional education from articles and books was the most effective way to update their knowledge, followed by attendance in conferences on osteoporosis. This study confirms the importance of comprehensive training and education regarding osteoporosis among tertiary care physicians and surgeons, predominantly in pharmacotherapy, to deliver wholesome care for osteoporotic patients.

Keywords: awareness, knowledge, osteoporosis, practices

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3 Changing Patterns of Colorectal Cancer in Hail Region

Authors: Laila Salah Seada, Ashraf Ibrahim, Fawaz Al Rashid, Ihab Abdo, Hassan Kasim, Waleed Al Mansi, Saud Al Shabli

Abstract:

Background and Objectives: Colorectal carcinoma is increasing among both men and women worldwide. It has a multifactorial etiology including genetic factors, environmental factors and inflammatory conditions of the digestive tract. A clinicopathologic assessment of colorectal carcinoma in Hail region is done, considering any changing patterns in two 5-year periods from 2005-2009 (A) and from 2012 to 2017 (B). All data had been retrieved from histopathology files of King Khalid Hospital, Hail. Results: During period (A), 75 cases were diagnosed as colorectal carcinoma. Male patients comprised 56/75 (74.7%) of the study, with a mean age of 58.4 (36-97), while females were 19/75 (25.3%) with a mean age of 50.3(30-85) and the difference was significant (p = 0.05). M:F ratio was 2.9:1. Most common histological type was adenocarcioma in 68/75 (90.7%) patients mostly well differentiated in 44/68 (64.7%). Mucinous neoplasms comprised only 7/75 (9.3%) of cases and tended to have a higher stage (p = 0.04). During period (B), 115 cases were diagnosed with an increase of 53.3% in number of cases than period (A). Male to female ratio also decreased to 1.35:1, females being 44.83% more affected. Adenocarcinoma remained the prevalent type (93.9%), while mucinous type was still rare (5.2%). No distal metastases found at time of presentation. Localization of tumors was rectosigmoid in group (A) in 41.4%, which increased to 56.6% in group (B), with an increase of 15.2%. Iliocecal location also decreased from 8% to 3.5%, being 56.25% less. Other proximal areas of the colon were decreased by 25.75%, from 53.9% in group (A) to 40% in group (B). Conclusion: Colorectal carcinoma in Hail region has increased by 53.3% in the past 5 years, with more females being diagnosed. Localization has also shifted distally by 15.2%. These findings are different from Western world patterns which experienced a decrease in incidence and proximal shift of the colon cancer localization. This might be due to better diagnostic tools, population awareness of the disease, as well as changing of life style and/or food habits in the region.

Keywords: colorectal cancer, Hail Region, changing pattern, distal shift

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2 Impacts of Climate Change on Number of Snowy Days and Snow Season Lengths in Turkey

Authors: Evren Ozgur, Kasim Kocak

Abstract:

As a result of global warming and climate change, air temperature has increased and will continue to increase in the future. Increases in air temperatures have effects on a large number of variables in meteorology. One of the most important effects is the changes in the types of precipitation, especially in mid-latitudes. Because of increasing air temperatures, less snowfall was observed in the eastern parts of Turkey. Snowfall provides most of the water supply in spring and summer months, especially in mountainous regions of Turkey. When the temperature begins to increase in spring season, this snow starts to melt and plays an important role in agricultural purposes, drinking water supply and energy production. On the other hand, defining the snow season is very crucial especially in mountainous areas which have winter tourism opportunities. A reduction in the length of the snow season (LSS) in these regions will result in serious consequences in the long run. In the study, snow season was examined for 10 meteorological stations that are located above the altitude of 1000m. These stations have decreasing trends in the ratio of number of snowy days to total precipitation days considering earlier studies. Daily precipitation records with the observation period of 1971-2011 were used in the study. Then, the observation period was separated into 4 non-overlapping parts in order to identify decadal variations. Changes in the length of the snow season with increasing temperatures were obtained for these stations. The results of LSS were evaluated with the number of snowy days for each station. All stations have decreasing trend in number of snowy days for 1971-2011 period. In addition, seven of the results are statistically significant. Besides, decrease is observed regarding the length of snow season for studied stations. The decrease varies between 6.6 and 47.6 days according to decadal snow season averages of the stations.

Keywords: climate change, global warming, precipitation, snowfall, Turkey

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1 Machine Learning Approaches to Water Usage Prediction in Kocaeli: A Comparative Study

Authors: Kasim Görenekli, Ali Gülbağ

Abstract:

This study presents a comprehensive analysis of water consumption patterns in Kocaeli province, Turkey, utilizing various machine learning approaches. We analyzed data from 5,000 water subscribers across residential, commercial, and official categories over an 80-month period from January 2016 to August 2022, resulting in a total of 400,000 records. The dataset encompasses water consumption records, weather information, weekends and holidays, previous months' consumption, and the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic.We implemented and compared several machine learning models, including Linear Regression, Random Forest, Support Vector Regression (SVR), XGBoost, Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and Gated Recurrent Units (GRU). Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) was applied to optimize hyperparameters for all models.Our results demonstrate varying performance across subscriber types and models. For official subscribers, Random Forest achieved the highest R² of 0.699 with PSO optimization. For commercial subscribers, Linear Regression performed best with an R² of 0.730 with PSO. Residential water usage proved more challenging to predict, with XGBoost achieving the highest R² of 0.572 with PSO.The study identified key factors influencing water consumption, with previous months' consumption, meter diameter, and weather conditions being among the most significant predictors. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on consumption patterns was also observed, particularly in residential usage.This research provides valuable insights for effective water resource management in Kocaeli and similar regions, considering Turkey's high water loss rate and below-average per capita water supply. The comparative analysis of different machine learning approaches offers a comprehensive framework for selecting appropriate models for water consumption prediction in urban settings.

Keywords: mMachine learning, water consumption prediction, particle swarm optimization, COVID-19, water resource management

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