Search results for: climate change risk

Authors: Kazuko Sakamoto

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Anthropomorphic agents have been successful in areas where there are many human interactions, such as education and medical care. The persuasive effect is also expected in e-shopping sites on the web. This indicates that customer service is not necessarily human but can play that role. However, the 'humanity' in anthropomorphism sometimes has a risk of working negatively. In general, as the appearance of anthropomorphic agents approaches humans, it is thought that their affinity with humans increases. However, when the degree of similarity reaches a certain level, it gives the user a weird feeling. This is the 'eerie valley' phenomenon. This is a concept used in the world of robotics, but it seems to be applicable to anthropomorphic agents such as characters. Then what kind of design can you accept as an anthropomorphic agent that gives you a feeling of friendliness or good feeling without causing discomfort or fear to people? This study focused on this point and examined what design and characteristics would be effective for marketing communication. As a result of the investigation, it was found that there is no need for gaze and blinking, the size of the eyes is normal or large, and the impression evaluation is higher when the structure is as simple as possible. Conversely, agents with high eye-gaze and white-eye ratios had low evaluations, and the negative impact on eye-gaze was particularly large.

Keywords: anthropomorphicgents, design evaluation, marketing communication, customer service

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Authors: Rachana Tank, Donald. M. Lyall, Kristin Flegal, Joey Ward, Jonathan Cavanagh

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Alzheimer’s research UK estimates by 2050, 2 million individuals will be living with Late Onset Alzheimer’s disease (LOAD). However, individuals experience considerable cognitive deficits and brain pathology over decades before reaching clinically diagnosable LOAD and studies have utilised gene candidate studies such as genome wide association studies (GWAS) and polygenic risk (PGR) scores to identify high risk individuals and potential pathways. This investigation aims to determine whether high genetic risk of LOAD is associated with worse brain MRI and cognitive performance in healthy older adults within the UK Biobank cohort. Previous studies investigating associations of PGR for LOAD and measures of MRI or cognitive functioning have focused on specific aspects of hippocampal structure, in relatively small sample sizes and with poor ‘controlling’ for confounders such as smoking. Both the sample size of this study and the discovery GWAS sample are bigger than previous studies to our knowledge. Genetic interaction between loci showing largest effects in GWAS have not been extensively studied and it is known that APOE e4 poses the largest genetic risk of LOAD with potential gene-gene and gene-environment interactions of e4, for this reason we  also analyse genetic interactions of PGR with the APOE e4 genotype. High genetic loading based on a polygenic risk score of 21 SNPs for LOAD is associated with worse brain MRI and cognitive outcomes in healthy individuals within the UK Biobank cohort. Summary statistics from Kunkle et al., GWAS meta-analyses (case: n=30,344, control: n=52,427) will be used to create polygenic risk scores based on 21 SNPs and analyses will be carried out in N=37,000 participants in the UK Biobank. This will be the largest study to date investigating PGR of LOAD in relation to MRI. MRI outcome measures include WM tracts, structural volumes. Cognitive function measures include reaction time, pairs matching, trail making, digit symbol substitution and prospective memory. Interaction of the APOE e4 alleles and PGR will be analysed by including APOE status as an interaction term coded as either 0, 1 or 2 e4 alleles. Models will be adjusted partially for adjusted for age, BMI, sex, genotyping chip, smoking, depression and social deprivation. Preliminary results suggest PGR score for LOAD is associated with decreased hippocampal volumes including hippocampal body (standardised beta = -0.04, P = 0.022) and tail (standardised beta = -0.037, P = 0.030), but not with hippocampal head. There were also associations of genetic risk with decreased cognitive performance including fluid intelligence (standardised beta = -0.08, P<0.01) and reaction time (standardised beta = 2.04, P<0.01). No genetic interactions were found between APOE e4 dose and PGR score for MRI or cognitive measures. The generalisability of these results is limited by selection bias within the UK Biobank as participants are less likely to be obese, smoke, be socioeconomically deprived and have fewer self-reported health conditions when compared to the general population. Lack of a unified approach or standardised method for calculating genetic risk scores may also be a limitation of these analyses. Further discussion and results are pending.

Keywords: Alzheimer's dementia, cognition, polygenic risk, MRI

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Authors: Mo Zhou, Samantha Ashby, Lyn Ebert

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In China, the changes that men experience in the perinatal period are not well researched. Men are also at risk of maladaptation to parenthood. The aim of this research is to review current studies regarding changes that Chinese men experience during transitioning to parenthood. 5 databases were employed to search relevant papers. The search found 128 articles. Based on the inclusion and exclusion criteria, 35 articles were included in this integrative review. Results showed the changes that Chinese fathers experienced during the transition to parenthood can be divided into two aspects: family relationships and mental problems. During transition to parenthood, fathers usually experienced an increase in their disappointment with marital conflict resolution and decreased sexual intimacy with their partner. Mental health declined, with fathers often feeling depressed and/or anxious during this time. Some men were diagnosed with clinical depression. The predictors of these changes included three domains: personal background (age and income), family background (gender of infant, relationship status and unplanned child) and cultural background (‘doing the month’, Confucianism, policy, social support).

Keywords: China, men, fatherhood, life change, postpartum

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Authors: Kasra Ghaemi, Syeda Tasnim, Shohel Mahmud

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One of the main issues affecting the quality and shelf life of food products is temperature fluctuation during transportation and storage. Packaging plays an important role in protecting food from environmental conditions, especially thermal variations. In this study, the performance of using microencapsulated Phase Change Material (PCM) as a promising thermal buffer layer in smart food packaging is investigated. The considered insulation layer is evaluated for different thicknesses and the absorbed heat from the environment. The results are presented in terms of the melting time of PCM or provided thermal protection period.

Keywords: food packaging, phase change material, thermal buffer, protection time

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Authors: Kalpana Rajouriya, Ajay Taneja

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The objective of the present study is to investigate the regional and lobar deposition of size-segregated PM in respiratory tract of human body. PM in different fractions is monitored using the Grimm portable environmental dust monitor during winter season in Firozabad; a Glass city of India. PM10 concentration (200.817g/m³) was 4.46 and 2.0 times higher than the limits prescribed by WHO (45g/m⁻³) and NAAQS (100g/m⁻³) government agencies. PM2.5 concentration (83.538 g/m3) was 5.56 and 1.39 times higher from WHO (15g/m-3) and NAAQS (60g/m⁻³) limits. Results inferred that PM10 and PM2.5 was highest deposited in head region (0.3477-0.5622 & 0.366-0.4704) followed by pulmonary region, especially in the 9-21year old persons. The variation in deposition percentage in our study is mainly due to the airway geometry, PM size, and its deposition mechanisms. The coarse fraction, due to its large size, cannot follow the airway path and mostly gets deposited by inertial impaction in the head region and its bifurcations. The present study results inferred that Coarse and fine PM deposition was highly visualized in 9 (8.45610⁻⁴ g, 2.91110⁻⁴g) year and 3 (1.49610⁻⁴ g, 8.59310⁻⁵g) month age category. So, the 9year children and 3month infants category have high level of health risk.

Keywords: particulate matter, MPPD model, regional deposition, lobar deposition, health risk

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Authors: G. Calleja-Rodriguez, N. Jimenez-Redondo, J. J. Peralta Escalante

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This research work aims at developing a solution to take advantage of the potential energy saving related to occupants behaviour estimated in between 5-30 % according to existing studies. For that purpose, the following methodology has been followed: 1) literature review and gap analysis, 2) define concept and functional requirements, 3) evaluation and feedback by experts. As result, the concept for a tool-box that implements continuous behavior change interventions named as engagement methods and based on increasing energy literacy, increasing energy visibility, using bonus system, etc. has been defined. These engagement methods are deployed through a set of ICT tools: Building Automation and Control System (BACS) add-ons services installed in buildings and Users Apps installed in smartphones, smart-TVs or dashboards. The tool-box called eTEACHER identifies energy conservation measures (ECM) based on energy behavioral change through a what-if analysis that collects information about the building and its users (comfort feedback, behavior, etc.) and carry out cost-effective calculations to provide outputs such us efficient control settings of building systems. This information is processed and showed in an attractive way as tailored advice to the energy end-users. Therefore, eTEACHER goal is to change the behavior of building´s energy users towards energy efficiency, comfort and better health conditions by deploying customized ICT-based interventions taking into account building typology (schools, residential, offices, health care centres, etc.), users profile (occupants, owners, facility managers, employers, etc.) as well as cultural and demographic factors. One of the main findings of this work is the common failure when technological interventions on behavioural change are done to not consult, train and support users regarding technological changes leading to poor performance in practices. As conclusion, a strong need to carry out social studies to identify relevant behavioural issues and to identify effective pro-evironmental behavioral change strategies has been identified.

Keywords: energy saving, behavioral bhange, building users, engagement methods, energy conservation measures

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Authors: Ismail Kimuli

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With a steadfast economic development, the Greater Kampala metropolitan area (GKMA) faces increasing pressures to increasetheshare of low-carbon electricity in the energy balance, abate CO2 emissions and also restructure the transportation sector for a sustainable 2050. GKMA, is Uganda’s commercial, political, social, and industrial hub with a population of 4.1 million, contributing 60% tothe nation’s GDP and accounts for 80% of Uganda’s industrial sector.However, with the rampant anthropogenic interference that causes climate change, CO2 emissions in the metropolitan are contributing to global warming. Many economies across the globe are addressing this challengethrough development and analysis of sustainable energy portfolios.A sustainable energy portfolio is a low-carbon scenario. The study reviews the literature to establish the current energy management situation of GKMA and finds it wanting in addressing the immediate challenges associated with energy management of the metropolitan. Then, the study develops and examines a sustainable energy portfolio for GKMA using TIMES-VEDA and then presents it as an investigative low-carbon energy scenario that could propel the metropolitan sustainably towards 2050.Sustainability is plausible by optimizing the total primary energy supply, generating low-carbon electricity from hydropower and PV-solar renewables, improving heating technologies for residential & commercial sectors, and switching 90% of land passengers from road to a Kampala metro for a sustainable mid-century.

Keywords: GKMA, sustainability, TIMES-VEDA, low-carbon scenario

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Authors: Shaneil Taylor

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Gender-based violence is a reflection of the inequalities that are associated within a society between the men and women that affects the health, dignity, security and autonomy of its victims. There are various determinants that contribute to the health risk of young women who have experienced sexual violence, in countries that have a high prevalence rate for HIV. For instance, in South Africa, where the highest prevalence rate for HIV is among young women, their susceptibility to the virus has been increased by sexual violence and cultural inequalities. Therefore, this study is a review of literature that explores how gender-based violence increases the possibility for HIV/AIDS among young women in South Africa.

Keywords: gender-based violence, HIV/AIDS transmission, risky sexual behavior, young women

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Authors: Amiel Satvedi, Richard Pyne

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Injuries in professional sports occur on a regular basis. Some may be minor, while others can cause huge impact on a player's career and earning potential. In soccer, there is a high risk of players picking up injuries during game time. This research work seeks to help soccer players reduce the risk of getting injured by predicting the likelihood of injury while playing in the near future and then providing recommendations for intervention. The injury prediction tool will use a soccer player's number of minutes played on the field, number of appearances, distance covered and performance data for the current and previous seasons as variables to conduct statistical analysis and provide injury predictive results using a machine learning linear regression model.

Keywords: injury predictor, soccer injury prevention, machine learning in soccer, big data in soccer

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Authors: S. Najafi, E. Bertini, M. Pezzotti, G.B. Tornielli, S. Zenoni

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Grapevine is an important agricultural fruit crop plant consumed worldwide and with a key role in the global economy. Grapevine is strongly affected by both biotic and abiotic stresses, which impact grape growth at different stages, such as during plant and berry development and pre- and post-harvest, consequently causing significant economic losses. Recently global warming has propelled the anticipation of the onset of berry ripening, determining the reduction of a grape color and increased volatilization of aroma compounds. Climate change could negatively alter the physiological characteristics of the grape and affect the berry and wine quality. Modern plant breeding can provide tools such as genome editing for improving grape resilience traits while maintaining intact the viticultural and oenological quality characteristics of the genotype. This study aims at developing a platform for genome editing application in grapevine plants with the final goal to improve berry quality, biotic, and abiotic resilience traits. We chose to directly deliver ribonucleoproteins (RNP, preassembled Cas protein and guide RNA) into plant protoplasts, and, from these cell structures, regenerate grapevine plants edited in specific selected genes controlling traits of interest. Edited plants regenerated by somatic embryogenesis from protoplasts will then be sequenced and molecularly characterized. Embryogenic calli of Sultana and Shiraz cultivars were initiated from unopened leaves of in-vitro shoot tip cultures and from stamens, respectively. Leaves were placed on NB2 medium while stamens on callus initiation medium (PIV) medium and incubated in the dark at 28 °C for three months. Viable protoplasts, tested by FDA staining, isolated from embryogenic calli were cultured by disc method at 1*105 protoplasts/ml. Mature well-shaped somatic embryos developed directly in the protoplast culture medium two months later and were transferred in the light into to shooting medium for further growth. Regenerated plants were then transferred to the greenhouse; no phenotypic alterations were observed when compared to non in-vitro cultured plants. The performed experiments allowed to established an efficient protocol of embryogenic calli production, protoplast isolation, and regeneration of the whole plant through somatic embryogenesis in both Sultana and Shiraz. Regenerated plants, through direct somatic embryogenesis deriving from a single cell, avoid the risk of chimerism during the regeneration process, therefore improving the genome editing process. As pre-requisite of genome editing, an efficient method for transfection of protoplast by yellow fluorescent protein (YFP) marker genes was also established and experiments of direct delivery of CRISPR–Cas9 ribonucleoproteins (RNPs) in protoplasts to achieve efficient DNA-free targeted mutations are in progress.

Keywords: CRISPR-cas9, plant regeneration, protoplast isolation, Vitis vinifera

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Authors: Aneta Nitsch-Osuch, Damian Okrucinski, Magdalena Dawgialło, Izabela Gołębiak, Ernest Kuchar

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The Hospital Antibiotic Policy (HAP) should be implemented to rationalize the antibiotic use and to decrease the risk of spreading of spreading of resistant bacteria. The aim of our study was to describe the antibiotic consumption patterns at the single oncosurgery ward before and after implementation of the HAP. We conducted a retrospective analysis of the antibiotic use at the Oncosurgery Ward in Warsaw (Poland) in years 2011-2016. Calculations were based on daily defined doses (DDDs), DDDs/100 hospitalizations and DDDs/100 person-days, drug utilization rates (DU 90% and DU 100%) were also analysed. After implementation of the HAP, the total antibiotic consumption increased (365.35 DDD in 2011 vs. 1359,22 DDD in 2016). The significant change was observed in antibiotic consumption patterns: the use of amoxicillin clavulanate and carbapenems or glycopeptides decreased significantly (p < 0,05), while the use of ciprofloxacin and aminoglycosides increased (p < 0,05). The DU100% rate varied from 6 in 2011 to 12 in 2016; while DU 90% rate varied from 2 in 2011 to 3-5 in 2013-2016. Although the implementation of the HAP did not result in the decreased total antibiotic consumption, it provided favorable changes in the antibiotic consumption patterns.

Keywords: antibiotics, hospital, policy, stewardship

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Authors: Sittipong Jarernprasert, Enrique Bazan-Zurita, Paul C. Rizzo

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Currently, seismic probabilistic risk assessments (SPRA) for nuclear facilities use In-Structure Response Spectra (ISRS) in the calculation of fragilities for systems and components. ISRS are calculated via dynamic analyses of the host building subjected to two orthogonal components of horizontal ground motion. Each component is defined as the median motion in any horizontal direction. Structural engineers applied the components along selected X and Y Cartesian axes. The ISRS at different locations in the building are also calculated in the X and Y directions. The choice of the directions of X and Y are not specified by the ground motion model with respect to geographic coordinates, and are rather arbitrarily selected by the structural engineer. Normally, X and Y coincide with the “principal” axes of the building, in the understanding that this practice is generally conservative. For SPRA purposes, however, it is desirable to remove any conservatism in the estimates of median ISRS. This paper examines the effects of the direction of horizontal seismic motion on the ISRS on typical nuclear structure. We also evaluate the variability of ISRS calculated along different horizontal directions. Our results indicate that some central measures of the ISRS provide robust estimates that are practically independent of the selection of the directions of the horizontal Cartesian axes.

Keywords: seismic, directionality, in-structure response spectra, probabilistic risk assessment

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Authors: Vania Helena Tonussi Vidal, Ester Eliane Jeunon

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This article aims to analyze the change processes of management related bureaucracy and learning organization model. The theoretical framework was based on Beer and Nohria (2001) model, identified as E and O Theory. Based on this theory the empirical research was conducted in connection with six key dimensions: goal, leadership, focus, process, reward systems and consulting. We used a case study of an educational Institution located in Barbacena, Minas Gerais. This traditional center of technical knowledge for long time adopted the bureaucratic way of management. After many changes in a business model, as the creation of graduate and undergraduate courses they decided to make a deep change in management model that is our research focus. The data were collected through semi-structured interviews with director, managers and courses supervisors. The analysis were processed by the procedures of Collective Subject Discourse (CSD) method, develop by Lefèvre & Lefèvre (2000), Results showed the incremental growing of management model toward a learning organization. Many impacts could be seeing. As negative factors we have: people resistance; poor information about the planning and implementation process; old politics inside the new model and so on. Positive impacts are: new procedures in human resources, mainly related to manager skills and empowerment; structure downsizing, open discussions channel; integrated information system. The process is still under construction and now great stimulus is done to managers and employee commitment in the process.

Keywords: bureaucracy, organizational learning, organizational change, E and O theory

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Authors: Claudia Seabra, Elisabeth Kastenholz, José Luís Abrantes, Manuel Reis

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In a world of increasing mobility and global risks, terrorism has, in a perverse way, capitalized on contemporaneous society’s growing interest in travel to explore a world whose national boundaries and distances have decreased. Terrorists have identified the modern tourist flows originated from the economically more developed countries as new appealing targets so as to: i) call attention to the causes they defend and ii) destroy a country’s foundations of tourism, with the final aim of disrupting the economic and consequently social fabric of the affected countries. The present study analyses sensitivity towards risk and travel behaviors in international travel amongst a sample of 600 international tourists from 49 countries travelling by air. Specifically, the sample was segmented according to the Global Peace Index. This index defines country profiles regarding the levels of peace. The indicators used are established over three broad themes: i) ongoing domestic and international conflict; ii) societal safety and security; and iii) militarisation. Tourists were segmented, according to their country of origin, in different levels of peacefulness. Several facets of travel behavior were evaluated, namely motivations, attitude towards trip planning, quality perception and perceived value of the trip. Also factors related with risk perception were evaluated, specifically terrorism risk perception during the trip, unsafety sensation as well as importance attributed to safety in travel. Results contribute to our understanding of the role of previous exposure to the lack of peace and safety at home in the international tourists behaviors, which is further discussed in terms of tourism management and marketing implications which should particularly interest tourism services and destinations more affected by terrorism, war, political turmoil, crime and other safety risks.

Keywords: terrorism, tourism, safety, risk perception

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Authors: Abraham Castro-Alvarez, Luisaldo Sandate-Flores, Roberto Parra-Saldivar

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The losing of crops during the whole production process is a problem that is affecting farmers in the whole world, as climate change affects the weather behavior. Stenocereus spp. is a tropical, exotic and endemic columnar cacti, it produces a colored and expensive fruit known how “pitaya”. The quality and value of the fruit, these species represent an attractive option for economical development in arid and semi-arid regions. This fruits are produced in Mexico, mainly in 4 regions, Mixteca Oaxaca-Puebla, Michoacan, Sinaloa-Sonora, Jalisco-Zacatecas. Pitaya can be an option to try mixed crop in this states due to the resistance to hard weather conditions. And also because of the marginalization problems that exist in these townships. As defined by the Population National Council it consists in the absence of development opportunities and the lack of capacity to get them. According to an analysis done in EsriPress ArcGis 10.1 the potential area in the country is almost the half of the territory being the total area of Mexico 1,965,249 km2 and the area with potential to produce pitaya 960,527 km2. This area covers part of the most affected townships that also have a few options of maize varieties making even harder the production of maize and exposing farmers to crop losing if conditions are good enough. Making pitaya a good option for these farmers to have an economic backup in their productions.

Keywords: maize, pitaya, rain fed, Stenocereus

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Authors: Melody Mandevere, Roselyn Cheruiyot

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Through Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR), organizations contribute to a stable environment that leads to a predictable climate for investment and trade. Organizations are now deviating from traditional CSR, where it was believed that the only responsibility of an organization is to meet its shareholder's needs. Organizations and society now believe that an organization has many stakeholders that it must satisfy for it to be viable. The function of State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) is not profit making but providing service and accomplishing public policy objectives. SOEs demand consideration in the current economic climate because they represent an important part of the economies of many countries. Given the importance and complex relationship of the stakeholders in SOE, the paper seeks to examine how full name first Zimra is implementing its CSR activities. SOE managers are responsible for CSR implementation and stakeholder engagement. ZIMRA is one of the parastatals that plays a crucial role in the Zimbabwean economy. It is, therefore, important to understand how Zimra is implementing CSR. Qualitative research was used for the research. Interviews were contacted with Zimra managers to understand how they are implementing CSR. Although Zimra managers understand the CSR concept, the organization does not have a CSR strategy that includes their stakeholders, which may have a negative impact on stakeholder perception and the organization's reputation. The funding of the CSR strategy is also not sustainable.

Keywords: corporate social responsibility, managers, stakeholders, state-owned enterprises

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Authors: Fatih Sogut

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Developments in information technologies have caused significant changes in terms of radio and television broadcasting. With these changes in terms of production format, transmission techniques and service delivery, the distinction between traditional media and New Media has emerged. The viewer/listener, who was in a passive position before, is now in an active position and has a say in many matters, including content production. Visual and auditory data transfer has diversified and become easier thanks to the convergence phenomenon. These transformations and developments also affected one of the oldest electronic communication tools, radio. In this study, in order to adapt to the new era that emerged with the digital age, the change in radio broadcasting and the factors that led to this change were tried to be explained.

Keywords: Internet, radio broadcasting, digital transformation, Internet broadcasting

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Authors: M. A. Peribanez, G. Illan, I. De Blas, A. Muniesa, I. Ruiz-Zarzuela

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Intensive aquaculture is commonly associated with increased incidence of parasites. However, in Spain, the recent intensification of cyprinid production has not led to knowledge of the parasites that develop in the aquaculture facilities, the factors that affect their development and spread and the transmission between wild and cultivated fish species. The present study focuses on the knowledge of environmental factors, as well as host dependent factors, and their possible influence as risk factors in the incidence and intensity of parasitic infections. This work was conducted in the Duero River Basin, NW Spain. A total of 114 tenches (Tinca tinca) were caught in a fish farm and 667 specimens belonging to six species of cyprinid, not tench, in five rivers. An exhaustive search and microscopic identification of protozoa on skin and gills were carried out. Physical, chemical, and biological parameters of water samples from the capture points were determined. Only two ectoprotozoa were identified, Ichthyophthirius multifiliis and Tripartiella sp. In I. multifiliis, a high intensity of infection (more than 40 parasites on the body surface and more than 80 on gills) was determined in farmed tench (14%) and in Iberian barbel (Luciobarbus bocagei) (91%) and Duero nase (Pseudochondrostoma duriense) (71%) of middle stretches of rivers. The prevalence was similar between farmed tenches and cyprinids of middle courses. Tripartiella sp. was only found in barbels (prevalence in middle stretches, 0.7%) and in farmed tenches (63%), this species resulting in a high risk factor (odds ratio, OR= 1143) in the presence of the ciliate. There were no differences between the two species relative to the intensity of parasitization. Some of the physical, chemical and microbiological water quality parameters appear to be risk factors in the presence of I. multifiliis, with maximum OR of 8. Nevertheless, in Tripartiella sp., the risk is multiplied by 720 when the pH value exceeds 8.4, if we consider the total of the data, and it is increased more than 500 times if we only consider the values recorded in the fish farm (529 by nitrates > 3 mg/l; 530 by total coliforms > 100 CFU/100 ml). However, the high prevalence and risk of infection by I. multifiliis and Tripartiella sp. in fish farms should be related to environmental factors that dependent upon sampling point rather than in direct influence of the physical-chemical and biological parameters of the water. The high pH value recorded in the fish farm (9.62 ± 0.76) is the only parameter that we consider may have a substantial direct influence. Chronic exposure to alkaline pH levels can be a chronic stress generator, predisposing to parasitization by Tripartiella sp. In conclusion, often minor changes in ecosystem conditions, both natural and man-made, can modify the host-parasite relationship, resulting in an increase in the prevalence and intensity of parasitic infections in populations of cyprinids, sometimes causing disease outbreaks.

Keywords: cyprinids, fish, parasites, protozoa, risk factors

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Authors: Francesco Pandolfi, Georgios Baltzopoulos, Iunio Iervolino

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The impact of extreme winds on industrial assets and the built environment is gaining increasing attention from stakeholders, including the corporate insurance industry. This has led to a progressively more in-depth study of building vulnerability and fragility to wind. Wind vulnerability models are used in probabilistic risk assessment to relate a loss metric to an intensity measure of the natural event, usually a gust or a mean wind speed. In fact, vulnerability models can be integrated with the wind hazard, which consists of associating a probability to each intensity level in a time interval (e.g., by means of return periods) to provide an assessment of future losses due to extreme wind. This has also given impulse to the world- and regional-scale wind hazard studies.Another approach often adopted for the probabilistic description of building vulnerability to the wind is the use of fragility functions, which provide the conditional probability that selected building components will exceed certain damage states, given wind intensity. In fact, in wind engineering literature, it is more common to find structural system- or component-level fragility functions rather than wind vulnerability models for an entire building. Loss assessment based on component fragilities requires some logical combination rules that define the building’s damage state given the damage state of each component and the availability of a consequence model that provides the losses associated with each damage state. When risk calculations are based on numerical simulation of a structure’s behavior during extreme wind scenarios, the interaction of component fragilities is intertwined with the computational procedure. However, simulation-based approaches are usually computationally demanding and case-specific. In this context, the present work introduces the ExtReMe wind risk assESsment prototype Software, ERMESS, which is being developed at the University of Naples Federico II. ERMESS is a wind risk assessment tool for insurance applications to industrial facilities, collecting a wide assortment of available wind vulnerability models and fragility functions to facilitate their incorporation into risk calculations based on in-built or user-defined wind hazard data. This software implements an alternative method for building-specific risk assessment based on existing component-level fragility functions and on a number of simplifying assumptions for their interactions. The applicability of this alternative procedure is explored by means of an illustrative proof-of-concept example, which considers four main building components, namely: the roof covering, roof structure, envelope wall and envelope openings. The application shows that, despite the simplifying assumptions, the procedure can yield risk evaluations that are comparable to those obtained via more rigorous building-level simulation-based methods, at least in the considered example. The advantage of this approach is shown to lie in the fact that a database of building component fragility curves can be put to use for the development of new wind vulnerability models to cover building typologies not yet adequately covered by existing works and whose rigorous development is usually beyond the budget of portfolio-related industrial applications.

Keywords: component wind fragility, probabilistic risk assessment, vulnerability model, wind-induced losses

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Authors: Hyun-Ju Oh, Soon-Rim Suh, Mihan Kim

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The steady and rapid increase of the older population is a global phenomenon. Chronic diseases and disabilities are increased due to aging. In general, exercise has been known to be most effective in preventing and managing chronic back pain. However, it is hard for the older women to initiate and maintain the exercise. Transtheoretical model (TTM) is one of the theories explain behavioral changes such as exercise. The application of the program considering the stage of behavior change is effective for the elderly woman to start and maintain the exercise. The purpose of this study was to develop TTM based exercise program and to examine its effect for elderly women with chronic back-pain. For the program evaluation, the non-equivalent control pre-posttest design was applied. The independent variable of this study is exercise intervention program. The contents of the program were constructed considering the characteristics of the elderly women with chronic low back pain, focusing on the process of change, the stage of change by the previous studies. The developed exercise program was applied to the elderly women with chronic low back pain in the planning stage and the preparation stage. The subjects were 50 older women over 65 years of age with chronic back-pain who did not practice regular exercise. The experimental group (n=25) received the 8weeks TTM based exercise program. The control group received the book which named low back pain management. Data were collected at three times: before the exercise intervention, right after the intervention, and 4weeks after the intervention. The dependent variables were the processes of change, decisional balance, exercise self-efficacy, back-pain, depression and muscle strength. The results of this study were as follows. Processes of change (<.001), pros of decisional balance (<.001), exercise self-efficacy (<.001), back pain (<.001), depression (<.001), muscle strength (<.001) were higher in the experimental group than in the control group right after the program and 4weeks after the programs. The results of this study show that applying the TTM based exercise program increases the use of the change process, increases the exercise self-efficacy, increases the stage of changing the exercise behavior and strengthens the muscular strength by lowering the degree of pain and depression Respectively. The significance of the study was to confirm the effect of continuous exercise by maintaining regular exercise habits by applying exercise program of the transtheoretical model to the chronic low back pain elderly with exercise intention.

Keywords: chronic back pain, elderly, exercise, women

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Authors: Jirapat Suriyachaisawat, Ekkit Surakarn

Abstract:

Introduction: To improve early detection and mortality rate of In- Hospital Cardiac arrest, Emergency Response Team (ERT) system was planned and implemented since June 2009 to detect pre-arrest conditions and for any concerns. The ERT consisted of on duty physicians and nurses from emergency department. ERT calling criteria consisted of acute change of HR < 40 or > 130 beats per minute, systolic blood pressure < 90mmHg, respiratory rate <8 or > 28 breaths per minute, O2 saturation < 90%, acute change in conscious state, acute chest pain or worried about the patients. From the data on ERT system implementation in our hospital in early phase (during June 2009-2011), there was no statistic significance in difference in In-Hospital cardiac arrest incidence and overall hospital mortality rate. Since the introduction of the ERT service in our hospital, we have conducted continuous educational campaign to improve awareness in an attempt to increase use of the service. Methods: To investigate outcome of ERT system in In-Hospital cardiac arrest and overall hospital mortality rate. We conducted a prospective, controlled before-and after examination of the long term effect of a ERT system on the incidence of cardiac arrest. We performed Chi -square analysis to find statistic significance. Results: Of a total 623 ERT cases from June 2009 until December 2012, there were 72 calls in 2009, 196 calls in 2010 ,139 calls in 2011 and 245 calls in 2012.The number of ERT calls per 1000 admissions in year 2009-10 was 7.69, 5.61 in 2011 and 9.38 in 2013. The number of Code blue calls per 1000 admissions decreased significantly from 2.28 to 0.99 per 1000 admissions (P value < 0.001). The incidence of cardiac arrest decreased progressively from 1.19 to 0.34 per 1000 admissions and significant in difference in year 2012 (P value < 0.001). The overall hospital mortality rate decreased by 8 % from 15.43 to 14.43 per 1000 admissions (P value 0.095). Conclusions: ERT system implementation was associated with progressive reduction in cardiac arrests over three year period, especially statistic significant in difference in 4th year after implementation. We also found an inverse association between number of ERT use and the risk of occurrence of cardiac arrests, But we have not found difference in overall hospital mortality rate.

Keywords: emergency response team, ERT, cardiac arrest, emergency medicine

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Authors: Ayedun Hassan, Ayadi Odunayo Peter

Abstract:

The ancient city of Abeokuta has been supplied with pipe borne water since 1911, yet, a continuous increase in population and unplanned city expansion makes water a very precious and scarce commodity. The government reserved areas (GRA’s) are well planned, and public water supply is available; however, the sub-urban areas consist of scattered structures with individuals trying to source water by digging wells and boreholes. The geology of the city consists of basement rock which makes digging wells and boreholes very difficult. The present study was conducted to assess the risk arising from the consumption of toxic elements in the groundwater of Abeokuta, Ogun State, Nigeria. Forty-five groundwater samples were collected from nine different areas of Abeokuta and analyzed for physicochemical parameters and toxic elements. The physicochemical parameters were determined using standard methods, while the toxic elements were determined using Inductively Coupled Plasma-Mass Spectrometer (ICP/MS). Ninety-six percent (96%) of the water sample has pH < 6.5, and 11% has conductivity > 250 µSCm⁻¹ limits in drinking water as recommended by WHO. Seven percent (7%) of the samples have Pb concentration >10 µgL⁻¹ while 75% have Al concentration >200 µgL⁻¹ recommended by WHO. The order for risk of cancer from different area of Abeokuta are Cd²⁺ > As³⁺ > Pb²⁺ > Cr⁶⁺ for Funaab, Camp and Obantoko; As³⁺ > Cd²⁺ > Pb²⁺ > Cr⁶⁺ for Ita Osin, Isale Igbein, Ake and Itoku; Cd²⁺ >As > Cr⁶⁺ > Pb²⁺ for Totoro; Pb²⁺ > Cd²⁺ > As³⁺ > Cr⁶⁺ for Idiaba. The order of non-cancer hazard index (HI) calculated for groundwater of Abeokuta City are Cd²⁺ > As³⁺ > Mn²⁺ > Pb²⁺ > Ni²⁺ and were all greater than one, which implies susceptibility to other illnesses. The sources of these elements are the rock and inappropriate waste disposal method, which leached the elements into the groundwater. A combination of sources from food will accumulate these elements in the human body system. Treatment to remove Al and Pb is necessary, while the method of water distribution should be reviewed to ensure access to potable water by the residents.

Keywords: Abeokuta, groundwater, Nigeria, risk

Procedia PDF Downloads 78

Authors: Huma Naqeeb

Abstract:

Epidemiological studies have shown the robust link between breast cancer and dietary pattern. There has been no previous study conducted in Pakistan, which specifically focuses on dietary patterns among breast cancer women. This study aims to examine the association of breast cancer with dietary patterns among Pakistani women. This case-control research was carried in multiple tertiary care facilities. Newly diagnosed primary breast cancer patients were recruited as cases (n = 408); age matched controls (n = 408) were randomly selected from the general population. Data on required parameters were systematically collected using subjective and objective tools. Factor and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) techniques were used to extract women’s dietary patterns. Four dietary patterns were identified based on eigenvalue >1; (i) veg-ovo-fish, (ii) meat-fat-sweet, (iii) mix (milk and its products, and gourds vegetables) and (iv) lentils - spices. Results of the multiple regressions were displayed as adjusted odds ratio (Adj. OR) and their respective confidence intervals (95% CI). After adjusted for potential confounders, veg-ovo-fish dietary pattern was found to be robustly associated with a lower risk of breast cancer among women (Adj. OR: 0.68, 95%CI: (0.46-0.99, p<0.01). The study findings concluded that attachment to the diets majorly composed of fresh vegetables, and high quality protein sources may contribute in lowering the risk of breast cancer among women.

Keywords: breast cancer, dietary pattern, women, principal component analysis

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Authors: Muhammad Younis Laghari

Abstract:

Global climate change has had many effects on the aquatic environment, and the major issue is pollution. Along with the other pollutants, there are a significant number of human microbial pathogens that pollute the water bodies. Another concern about the water quality is that the major aquatic resources bring water-borne pathogens and other related diseases. These resources include industrial effluent, untreated domestic sewage, acid mine drainage, etc. However, these water discharges through various routes may have treatment to eliminate the pathogenic microbes. Therefore, it is essential to control the leakage from sewer systems, residential discharge, and agricultural run-off. These pathogenic microbes have been implicated in the lives of water health (fishes), which is harmful and causes diseases. Mostly, the mortality of aquatic species results because of catastrophic floods due to poor water waste treatment and sanitation that introduce pathogenic bacteria into rivers. Pathogens survive in rivers and remain poorly known but essential to control water-borne diseases. The presence of bacteria in watercourses is diverse and constitutes a complicated subject. Many species are autochthonous and play an important role in aquatic ecosystems, while many others arise from untreated or poorly treated waste from industrial and domestic sources. Further, more investigation is required to know the induction of water-borne pathogens in various water resources and the potential impacts of water resource development on pathogen contamination.

Keywords: microbial pathogens, contamination, water resources, river water body

Procedia PDF Downloads 56

Authors: Margarida Porfírio Tomás, Paula Pereira, José Palma Oliveira

Abstract:

Robotic grasping is advancing rapidly, but transferring techniques from rigid to deformable objects remains a challenge. Deformable and flexible items, such as food containers, demand nuanced handling due to their changing shapes. Bridging this gap is crucial for applications in food processing, surgical robotics, and household assistance. AGILEHAND, a Horizon project, focuses on developing advanced technologies for sorting, handling, and packaging soft and deformable products autonomously. These technologies serve as strategic tools to enhance flexibility, agility, and reconfigurability within the production and logistics systems of European manufacturing companies. Key components include intelligent detection, self-adaptive handling, efficient sorting, and agile, rapid reconfiguration. The overarching goal is to optimize work environments and equipment, ensuring both efficiency and safety. As new technologies emerge in the food industry, there will be some implications, such as labour force, safety problems and acceptance of the new technologies. To overcome these implications, AGILEHAND emphasizes the integration of social sciences and humanities, for example, the application of the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM). The project aims to create a change management manual, that will outline strategies for developing digital skills and managing health and safety transitions. It will also provide best practices and models for organizational change. Additionally, AGILEHAND will design effective training programs to enhance employee skills and knowledge. This information will be obtained through a combination of case studies, structured interviews, questionnaires, and a comprehensive literature review. The project will explore how organizations adapt during periods of change and identify factors influencing employee motivation and job satisfaction. This project received funding from European Union’s Horizon 2020/Horizon Europe research and innovation program under grant agreement No101092043 (AGILEHAND).

Keywords: change management, technology acceptance model, organizational change, health and safety

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Authors: Kumaraamy Sasikumar

Abstract:

The study was conducted in Vadamarachchi-East in Sri Lanka. Data collection was done for a period of two months from June to July 2011. The main focus of this study was to examine factors contributing to mangrove deforestation within the study area, and resultant impacts from deforestation. The study found that, the main factors that have contributed to deforestation include: Long civil wars in the region, poverty which pushed people to clear the forest to earn income through the sale of firewood and timber among others, industrial development, increasing demand for farm and settlement land, limited knowledge within the local community, weak government polices and implementation strategies, and natural disasters especially the 2004 Tsunami destruction. The impacts presented are those that impact both on the environment and the economy including; loss of income sources, loss of biodiversity, climate change, desertification, conflicts in the use of forest products and loss of land productivity due to reduced fertility caused by soil erosion. However, a few strategies have been put in place by the government to ensure the sustainable use of mangrove forest products, though these have not proved successful in reducing deforestation. The recommendations make suggestions to the government and other stakeholders to work together in ensuring sustainable use of natural resources, for example implementing laws and regulations aimed at controlling deforestation among others.

Keywords: deforestation, impacts, actors, environment, economic, sustainable development

Procedia PDF Downloads 343

Authors: Zhizhong Yuan, Lili Wang, Chenya Zheng, Wuqi Yang

Abstract:

How to encourage and support peer-to-peer (P2P) network lending, and effectively monitor the risk of P2P network lending, has become the focus of the Chinese government departments, industrialists, experts and scholars in recent years. The reason is that this convenient online micro-credit service brings a series of credit risks and other issues. Avoiding the risks brought by the P2P network lending model, it can better play a benign role and help China's small and medium-sized private enterprises with vigorous development to solve the capital needs; otherwise, it will bring confusion to the normal financial order. As a form of financial services, P2P network lending has injected new blood into China's non-government finance in the past ten years, and has found a way out for idle funds and made up for the shortage of traditional financial services in China. However, it lacks feasible measures in credit evaluation and government supervision. This paper collects a large amount of data about P2P network lending of China. The data collection comes from the official media of the Chinese government, the public achievements of existing researchers and the analysis and collation of correlation data by the authors. The research content of this paper includes literature review; the current situation of China's P2P network lending development; the risk analysis of P2P network lending in China; the risk prevention strategy of P2P network lending in China. The focus of this paper is to try to find a specific program to strengthen supervision and avoid risks from the perspective of government regulators, operators of P2P network lending platform, investors and users of funds. These main measures include: China needs to develop self-discipline organization of P2P network lending industry and formulate self-discipline norms as soon as possible; establish a regular information disclosure system of P2P network lending platform; establish censorship of credit rating of borrowers; rectify the P2P network lending platform in compliance through the implementation of bank deposition. The results and solutions will benefit all the P2P network lending platforms, creditors, debtors, bankers, independent auditors and government agencies of China and other countries.

Keywords: peer-to-peer(P2P), regulation, risk prevention, supervision

Procedia PDF Downloads 149

Authors: Collen Kawiya

Abstract:

In an effort of reducing post-harvest losses and improving the supply of quality fish products in Malawi, the fish solar tent dryers have been designed in the southern part of Lake Malawi for processing small fish species under the project of Cultivate Africa’s Future (CultiAF). This study was done to promote the adoption of the fish solar tent dryers by the many small scale fish processors in Malawi through the assessment of the economic viability of these dryers. With the use of the project’s baseline survey data, a business model for a constructed ‘ready for use’ solar tent dryer was developed where investment appraisal techniques were calculated in addition with the sensitivity analysis. The study also conducted a risk analysis through the use of the Monte Carlo simulation technique and a probabilistic net present value was found. The investment appraisal results showed that the net present value was US$8,756.85, the internal rate of return was 62% higher than the 16.32% cost of capital and the payback period was 1.64 years. The sensitivity analysis results showed that only two input variables influenced the fish solar dryer investment’s net present value. These are the dried fish selling prices that were correlating positively with the net present value and the fresh fish buying prices that were negatively correlating with the net present value. Risk analysis results showed that the chances that fish processors will make a loss from this type of investment are 17.56%. It was also observed that there exist only a 0.20 probability of experiencing a negative net present value from this type of investment. Lastly, the study found that the net present value of the fish solar tent dryer’s investment is still robust in spite of any changes in the levels of investors risk preferences. With these results, it is concluded that the fish solar tent dryers in Malawi are an economically viable investment because they are able to improve the returns in the fish processing activity. As such, fish processors need to adopt them by investing their money to construct and use them.

Keywords: investment appraisal, risk analysis, sensitivity analysis, solar tent drying

Procedia PDF Downloads 260

Authors: Lisa J. Piergallini

Abstract:

This project uses panel regression analyses to investigate the relationships between geography, institutions, and economic development, as guided by the theories of the 18^th century French philosopher Montesquieu. Contemporary scholars of political economy perpetually misinterpret Montesquieu’s theories on climate, and in doing so they miss what could be the key to resolving the geography vs. institutions debate. There is a conspicuous gap in this literature, in that it does not consider whether geography and institutors might have an interactive, dynamic effect on economic development. This project seeks to bridge that gap. Data are used for all available countries over the years 1980-2013. Two interaction terms between geographic and institutional variables are employed within the empirical analyses, and these offer a unique contribution to the ongoing geography vs. institutions debate within the political economy literature. This study finds that there is indeed an interactive effect between geography and institutions, and that this interaction has a statistically significant effect on economic development. Democracy (as measured by Polity score) and rule of law and property rights (as measured by the Fraser index) have positive effects on economic development (as measured by GDP per capita), yet the magnitude of these effects are stronger in contexts where a low percent of the national population lives in the geographical tropics. This has implications for promoting economic development, and it highlights the importance of understanding geographical context.

Keywords: Montesquieu, institutions, geography, economic development, political philosophy, political economy

Procedia PDF Downloads 239

Authors: Jirapat Suriyachaisawat, Ekkit Surakarn

Abstract:

Introduction: To improve early detection and mortality rate of in-hospital cardiac arrest, Emergency Response Team (ERT) system was planned and implemented since June 2009 to detect pre-arrest conditons and for any concerns. The ERT consisted of on duty physicians and nurses from emergency department. ERT calling criteria consisted of acute change of HR < 40 or > 130 beats per minute, systolic blood pressure < 90 mmHg, respiratory rate <8 or >28 breaths per minute, O2 saturation <90%, acute change in conscious state, acute chest pain or worry about the patients. From the data on ERT system implementation in our hospital in early phase (during June 2009-2011), there was no statistic significance in difference in in-hospital cardiac arrest incidence and overall hospital mortality rate. Since the introduction of the ERT service in our hospital, we have conducted continuous educational campaign to improve awareness in an attempt to increase use of the service. Methods: To investigate outcome of ERT system in in-hospital cardiac arrest and overall hospital mortality rate, we conducted a prospective, controlled before-and after examination of the long term effect of a ERT system on the incidence of cardiac arrest. We performed chi-square analysis to find statistic significance. Results: Of a total 623 ERT cases from June 2009 until December 2012, there were 72 calls in 2009, 196 calls in 2010, 139 calls in 2011 and 245 calls in 2012. The number of ERT calls per 1000 admissions in year 2009-10 was 7.69; 5.61 in 2011 and 9.38 in 2013. The number of code blue calls per 1000 admissions decreased significantly from 2.28 to 0.99 per 1000 admissions (P value < 0.001). The incidence of cardiac arrest decreased progressively from 1.19 to 0.34 per 1000 admissions and significant in difference in year 2012 (P value < 0.001 ). The overall hospital mortality rate decreased by 8 % from 15.43 to 14.43 per 1000 admissions (P value 0.095). Conclusions: ERT system implementation was associated with progressive reduction in cardiac arrests over three year period, especially statistic significant in difference in 4th year after implementation. We also found an inverse association between number of ERT use and the risk of occurrence of cardiac arrests, but we have not found difference in overall hospital mortality rate.

Keywords: cardiac arrest, outcome, in-hospital, ERT

Procedia PDF Downloads 188