Search results for: sensory analysis
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 28375

Search results for: sensory analysis

1165 A Numerical Hybrid Finite Element Model for Lattice Structures Using 3D/Beam Elements

Authors: Ahmadali Tahmasebimoradi, Chetra Mang, Xavier Lorang

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Thanks to the additive manufacturing process, lattice structures are replacing the traditional structures in aeronautical and automobile industries. In order to evaluate the mechanical response of the lattice structures, one has to resort to numerical techniques. Ansys is a globally well-known and trusted commercial software that allows us to model the lattice structures and analyze their mechanical responses using either solid or beam elements. In this software, a script may be used to systematically generate the lattice structures for any size. On the one hand, solid elements allow us to correctly model the contact between the substrates (the supports of the lattice structure) and the lattice structure, the local plasticity, and the junctions of the microbeams. However, their computational cost increases rapidly with the size of the lattice structure. On the other hand, although beam elements reduce the computational cost drastically, it doesn’t correctly model the contact between the lattice structures and the substrates nor the junctions of the microbeams. Also, the notion of local plasticity is not valid anymore. Moreover, the deformed shape of the lattice structure doesn’t correspond to the deformed shape of the lattice structure using 3D solid elements. In this work, motivated by the pros and cons of the 3D and beam models, a numerically hybrid model is presented for the lattice structures to reduce the computational cost of the simulations while avoiding the aforementioned drawbacks of the beam elements. This approach consists of the utilization of solid elements for the junctions and beam elements for the microbeams connecting the corresponding junctions to each other. When the global response of the structure is linear, the results from the hybrid models are in good agreement with the ones from the 3D models for body-centered cubic with z-struts (BCCZ) and body-centered cubic without z-struts (BCC) lattice structures. However, the hybrid models have difficulty to converge when the effect of large deformation and local plasticity are considerable in the BCCZ structures. Furthermore, the effect of the junction’s size of the hybrid models on the results is investigated. For BCCZ lattice structures, the results are not affected by the junction’s size. This is also valid for BCC lattice structures as long as the ratio of the junction’s size to the diameter of the microbeams is greater than 2. The hybrid model can take into account the geometric defects. As a demonstration, the point clouds of two lattice structures are parametrized in a platform called LATANA (LATtice ANAlysis) developed by IRT-SystemX. In this process, for each microbeam of the lattice structures, an ellipse is fitted to capture the effect of shape variation and roughness. Each ellipse is represented by three parameters; semi-major axis, semi-minor axis, and angle of rotation. Having the parameters of the ellipses, the lattice structures are constructed in Spaceclaim (ANSYS) using the geometrical hybrid approach. The results show a negligible discrepancy between the hybrid and 3D models, while the computational cost of the hybrid model is lower than the computational cost of the 3D model.

Keywords: additive manufacturing, Ansys, geometric defects, hybrid finite element model, lattice structure

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1164 Validating Chronic Kidney Disease-Specific Risk Factors for Cardiovascular Events Using National Data: A Retrospective Cohort Study of the Nationwide Inpatient Sample

Authors: Fidelis E. Uwumiro, Chimaobi O. Nwevo, Favour O. Osemwota, Victory O. Okpujie, Emeka S. Obi, Omamuyovbi F. Nwoagbe, Ejiroghene Tejere, Joycelyn Adjei-Mensah, Christopher N. Ekeh, Charles T. Ogbodo

Abstract:

Several risk factors associated with cardiovascular events have been identified as specific to Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD). This study endeavors to validate these CKD-specific risk factors using up-to-date national-level data, thereby highlighting the crucial significance of confirming the validity and generalizability of findings obtained from previous studies conducted on smaller patient populations. The study utilized the nationwide inpatient sample database to identify adult hospitalizations for CKD from 2016 to 2020, employing validated ICD-10-CM/PCS codes. A comprehensive literature review was conducted to identify both traditional and CKD-specific risk factors associated with cardiovascular events. Risk factors and cardiovascular events were defined using a combination of ICD-10-CM/PCS codes and statistical commands. Only risk factors with specific ICD-10 codes and hospitalizations with complete data were included in the study. Cardiovascular events of interest included cardiac arrhythmias, sudden cardiac death, acute heart failure, and acute coronary syndromes. Univariate and multivariate regression models were employed to evaluate the association between chronic kidney disease-specific risk factors and cardiovascular events while adjusting for the impact of traditional CV risk factors such as old age, hypertension, diabetes, hypercholesterolemia, inactivity, and smoking. A total of 690,375 hospitalizations for CKD were included in the analysis. The study population was predominantly male (375,564, 54.4%) and primarily received care at urban teaching hospitals (512,258, 74.2%). The mean age of the study population was 61 years (SD 0.1), and 86.7% (598,555) had a CCI of 3 or more. At least one traditional risk factor for CV events was present in 84.1% of all hospitalizations (580,605), while 65.4% (451,505) included at least one CKD-specific risk factor for CV events. The incidence of CV events in the study was as follows: acute coronary syndromes (41,422; 6%), sudden cardiac death (13,807; 2%), heart failure (404,560; 58.6%), and cardiac arrhythmias (124,267; 18%). 91.7% (113,912) of all cardiac arrhythmias were atrial fibrillations. Significant odds of cardiovascular events on multivariate analyses included: malnutrition (aOR: 1.09; 95% CI: 1.06–1.13; p<0.001), post-dialytic hypotension (aOR: 1.34; 95% CI: 1.26–1.42; p<0.001), thrombophilia (aOR: 1.46; 95% CI: 1.29–1.65; p<0.001), sleep disorder (aOR: 1.17; 95% CI: 1.09–1.25; p<0.001), and post-renal transplant immunosuppressive therapy (aOR: 1.39; 95% CI: 1.26–1.53; p<0.001). The study validated malnutrition, post-dialytic hypotension, thrombophilia, sleep disorders, and post-renal transplant immunosuppressive therapy, highlighting their association with increased risk for cardiovascular events in CKD patients. No significant association was observed between uremic syndrome, hyperhomocysteinemia, hyperuricemia, hypertriglyceridemia, leptin levels, carnitine deficiency, anemia, and the odds of experiencing cardiovascular events.

Keywords: cardiovascular events, cardiovascular risk factors in CKD, chronic kidney disease, nationwide inpatient sample

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1163 Pandemic-Related Disruption to the Home Environment and Early Vocabulary Acquisition

Authors: Matthew McArthur, Margaret Friend

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The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted the stability of the home environment for families across the world. Potential disruptions include parent work modality (in-person vs. remote), levels of health anxiety, family routines, and caregiving. These disruptions may have interfered with the processes of early vocabulary acquisition, carrying lasting effects over the life course. Our justification for this research is as follows: First, early, stable, caregiver-child reciprocal interactions, which may have been disrupted during the pandemic, contribute to the development of the brain architecture that supports language, cognitive, and social-emotional development. Second, early vocabulary predicts several cognitive outcomes, such as numeracy, literacy, and executive function. Further, disruption in the home is associated with adverse cognitive, academic, socio-emotional, behavioral, and communication outcomes in young children. We are interested in how disruptions related to the COVID-19 pandemic are associated with vocabulary acquisition in children born during the first two waves of the pandemic. We are conducting a moderated online experiment to assess this question. Participants are 16 children (10F) ranging in age from 19 to 39 months (M=25.27) and their caregivers. All child participants were screened for language background, health history, and history of language disorders, and were typically developing. Parents completed a modified version of the COVID-19 Family Stressor Scale (CoFaSS), a published measure of COVID-19-related family stressors. Thirteen items from the original scale were replaced to better capture change in family organization and stability specifically related to disruptions in income, anxiety, family relations, and childcare. Following completion of the modified CoFaSS, children completed a Web-Based version of the Computerized Comprehension Task and the Receptive One Word Picture Vocabulary if 24 months or older or the MacArthur-Bates Communicative Development Inventory if younger than 24 months. We report our preliminary data as a partial correlation analysis controlling for age. Raw vocabulary scores on the CCT, ROWPVT-4, and MCDI were all negatively associated with pandemic-related disruptions related to anxiety (r12=-.321; r1=-.332; r9=-.509), family relations (r12=-.590*; r1=-.155; r9=-.468), and childcare (r12=-.294; r1=-.468; r9=-.177). Although the small sample size for these preliminary data limits our power to detect significance, this trend is in the predicted direction, suggesting that increased pandemic-related disruption across multiple domains is associated with lower vocabulary scores. We anticipate presenting data on a full sample of 50 monolingual English participants. A sample of 50 participants would provide sufficient statistical power to detect a moderate effect size, adhering to a nominal alpha of 0.05 and ensuring a power level of 0.80.

Keywords: COVID-19, early vocabulary, home environment, language acquisition, multiple measures

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1162 Diversity and Use of Agroforestry Yards of Family Farmers of Ponte Alta – Gama, Federal District, Brazil

Authors: Kever Bruno Paradelo Gomes, Rosana Carvalho Martins

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The home gardens areas are production systems, which are located near the homes and are quite common in the tropics. They consist of agricultural and forest species and may also involve the raising of small animals to produce food for subsistence as well as income generation, with a special focus on the conservation of biodiversity. Home gardens are diverse Agroforestry systems with multiple uses, among many, food security, income aid, traditional medicine. The work was carried out on rural properties of the family farmers of the Ponte Alta Rural Nucleus, Gama Administrative Region, in the city of Brasília, Federal District- Brazil. The present research is characterized methodologically as a quantitative, exploratory and descriptive nature. The instruments used in this research were: bibliographic survey and semi-structured questionnaire. The data collection was performed through the application of a semi-structured questionnaire, containing questions that referred to the perception and behavior of the interviewed producer on the subject under analysis. In each question, the respondent explained his knowledge about sustainability, agroecological practices, environmental legislation, conservation methods, forest and medicinal species, ago social and socioeconomic characteristics, use and purpose of agroforestry and technical assistance. The sample represented 55.62% of the universe of the study. We interviewed 99 people aged 18-83 years, with a mean age of 49 years. The low level of education, coupled with the lack of training and guidance for small family farmers in the Ponte Alta Rural Nucleus, is one of the limitations to the development of practices oriented towards sustainable and agroecological agriculture in the nucleus. It is observed that 50.5% of the interviewed people landed with agroforestry yards less than 20 years ago, and only 16.17% of them are older than 35 years. In identifying agriculture as the main activity of most of the rural properties studied, attention is drawn to the cultivation of medicinal plants, fruits and crops as the most extracted products. However, it is verified that the crops in the backyards have the exclusive purpose of family consumption, which could be complemented with the marketing of the surplus, as well as with the aggregation of value to the cultivated products. Initiatives such as this may contribute to the increase in family income and to the motivation and value of the crop in agroecological gardens. We conclude that home gardens of Ponte Alta are highly diverse thus contributing to local biodiversity conservation of are managed by women to ensure food security and allows income generation. The tradition of existing knowledge on the use and management of the diversity of resources used in agroforestry yards is of paramount importance for the development of sustainable alternative practices.

Keywords: agriculture, agroforestry system, rural development, sustainability

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1161 Ganga Rejuvenation through Forestation and Conservation Measures in Riverscape

Authors: Ombir Singh

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In spite of the religious and cultural pre-dominance of the river Ganga in the Indian ethos, fragmentation and degradation of the river continued down the ages. Recognizing the national concern on environmental degradation of the river and its basin, Ministry of Water Resources, River Development & Ganga Rejuvenation (MoWR,RD&GR), Government of India has initiated a number of pilot schemes for the rejuvenation of river Ganga under the ‘Namami Gange’ Programme. Considering the diversity, complexity, and intricacies of forest ecosystems and pivotal multiple functions performed by them and their inter-connectedness with highly dynamic river ecosystems, forestry interventions all along the river Ganga from its origin at Gaumukh, Uttarakhand to its mouth at Ganga Sagar, West Bengal has been planned by the ministry. For that Forest Research Institute (FRI) in collaboration with National Mission for Clean Ganga (NMCG) has prepared a Detailed Project Report (DPR) on Forestry Interventions for Ganga. The Institute has adopted an extensive consultative process at the national and state levels involving various stakeholders relevant in the context of river Ganga and employed a science-based methodology including use of remote sensing and GIS technologies for geo-spatial analysis, modeling and prioritization of sites for proposed forestation and conservation interventions. Four sets of field data formats were designed to obtain the field based information for forestry interventions, mainly plantations and conservation measures along the river course. In response, five stakeholder State Forest Departments had submitted more than 8,000 data sheets to the Institute. In order to analyze a voluminous field data received from five participating states, the Institute also developed a software to collate, analyze and generation of reports on proposed sites in Ganga basin. FRI has developed potential plantation and treatment models for the proposed forestry and other conservation measures in major three types of landscape components visualized in the Ganga riverscape. These are: (i) Natural, (ii) Agriculture, and (iii) Urban Landscapes. Suggested plantation models broadly varied for the Uttarakhand Himalayas and the Ganga Plains in five participating states. Besides extensive plantations in three type of landscapes within the riverscape, various conservation measures such as soil and water conservation, riparian wildlife management, wetland management, bioremediation and bio-filtration and supporting activities such as policy and law intervention, concurrent research, monitoring and evaluation, and mass awareness campaigns have been envisioned in the DPR. The DPR also incorporates the details of the implementation mechanism, budget provisioned for different components of the project besides allocation of budget state-wise to five implementing agencies, national partner organizations and the Nodal Ministry.

Keywords: conservation, Ganga, river, water, forestry interventions

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1160 Improving Working Memory in School Children through Chess Training

Authors: Veena Easvaradoss, Ebenezer Joseph, Sumathi Chandrasekaran, Sweta Jain, Aparna Anna Mathai, Senta Christy

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Working memory refers to a cognitive processing space where information is received, managed, transformed, and briefly stored. It is an operational process of transforming information for the execution of cognitive tasks in different and new ways. Many class room activities require children to remember information and mentally manipulate it. While the impact of chess training on intelligence and academic performance has been unequivocally established, its impact on working memory needs to be studied. This study, funded by the Cognitive Science Research Initiative, Department of Science & Technology, Government of India, analyzed the effect of one-year chess training on the working memory of children. A pretest–posttest with control group design was used, with 52 children in the experimental group and 50 children in the control group. The sample was selected from children studying in school (grades 3 to 9), which included both the genders. The experimental group underwent weekly chess training for one year, while the control group was involved in extracurricular activities. Working memory was measured by two subtests of WISC-IV INDIA. The Digit Span Subtest involves recalling a list of numbers of increasing length presented orally in forward and in reverse order, and the Letter–Number Sequencing Subtest involves rearranging jumbled alphabets and numbers presented orally following a given rule. Both tasks require the child to receive and briefly store information, manipulate it, and present it in a changed format. The Children were trained using Winning Moves curriculum, audio- visual learning method, hands-on- chess training and recording the games using score sheets, analyze their mistakes, thereby increasing their Meta-Analytical abilities. They were also trained in Opening theory, Checkmating techniques, End-game theory and Tactical principles. Pre equivalence of means was established. Analysis revealed that the experimental group had significant gains in working memory compared to the control group. The present study clearly establishes a link between chess training and working memory. The transfer of chess training to the improvement of working memory could be attributed to the fact that while playing chess, children evaluate positions, visualize new positions in their mind, analyze the pros and cons of each move, and choose moves based on the information stored in their mind. If working-memory’s capacity could be expanded or made to function more efficiently, it could result in the improvement of executive functions as well as the scholastic performance of the child.

Keywords: chess training, cognitive development, executive functions, school children, working memory

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1159 Screening of Osteoporosis in Aging Populations

Authors: Massimiliano Panella, Sara Bortoluzzi, Sophia Russotto, Daniele Nicolini, Carmela Rinaldi

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Osteoporosis affects more than 200 million people worldwide. About 75% of osteoporosis cases are undiagnosed or diagnosed only when a bone fracture occurs. Since osteoporosis related fractures are significant determinants of the burden of disease and health and social costs of aging populations, we believe that this is the early identification and treatment of high-risk patients should be a priority in actual healthcare systems. Screening for osteoporosis by dual energy x-ray absorptiometry (DEXA) is not cost-effective for general population. An alternative is pulse-echo ultrasound (PEUS) because of the minor costs. To this end, we developed an early detection program for osteoporosis with PEUS, and we evaluated is possible impact and sustainability. We conducted a cross-sectional study including 1,050 people in Italy. Subjects with >1 major or >2 minor risk factors for osteoporosis were invited to PEUS bone mass density (BMD) measurement at the proximal tibia. Based on BMD values, subjects were classified as healthy subjects (BMD>0.783 g/cm²) and pathological including subjects with suspected osteopenia (0.783≤BMD>0.719 g/cm²) or osteoporosis (BMD ≤ 0.719 g/cm²). The responder rate was 60.4% (634/1050). According to the risk, PEUS scan was recommended to 436 people, of whom 300 (mean age 45.2, 81% women) accepted to participate. We identified 240 (80%) healthy and 60 (20%) pathological subjects (47 osteopenic and 13 osteoporotic). We observed a significant association between high risk people and reduced bone density (p=0.043) with increased risks for female gender, older ages, and menopause (p<0.01). The yearly cost of the screening program was 8,242 euros. With actual Italian fracture incidence rates in osteoporotic patients, we can reasonably expect in 20 years that at least 6 fractures will occur in our sample. If we consider that the mean costs per fracture in Italy is today 16,785 euros, we can estimate a theoretical cost of 100,710 euros. According to literature, we can assume that the early treatment of osteoporosis could avoid 24,170 euros of such costs. If we add the actual yearly cost of the treatments to the cost of our program and we compare this final amount of 11,682 euros to the avoidable costs of fractures (24,170 euros) we can measure a possible positive benefits/costs ratio of 2.07. As a major outcome, our study let us to early identify 60 people with a significant bone loss that were not aware of their condition. This diagnostic anticipation constitutes an important element of value for the project, both for the patients, for the preventable negative outcomes caused by the fractures, and for the society in general, because of the related avoidable costs. Therefore, based on our finding, we believe that the PEUS based screening performed could be a cost-effective approach to early identify osteoporosis. However, our study has some major limitations. In fact, in our study the economic analysis is based on theoretical scenarios, thus specific studies are needed for a better estimation of the possible benefits and costs of our program.

Keywords: osteoporosis, prevention, public health, screening

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1158 Digital Twins in the Built Environment: A Systematic Literature Review

Authors: Bagireanu Astrid, Bros-Williamson Julio, Duncheva Mila, Currie John

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Digital Twins (DT) are an innovative concept of cyber-physical integration of data between an asset and its virtual replica. They have originated in established industries such as manufacturing and aviation and have garnered increasing attention as a potentially transformative technology within the built environment. With the potential to support decision-making, real-time simulations, forecasting abilities and managing operations, DT do not fall under a singular scope. This makes defining and leveraging the potential uses of DT a potential missed opportunity. Despite its recognised potential in established industries, literature on DT in the built environment remains limited. Inadequate attention has been given to the implementation of DT in construction projects, as opposed to its operational stage applications. Additionally, the absence of a standardised definition has resulted in inconsistent interpretations of DT in both industry and academia. There is a need to consolidate research to foster a unified understanding of the DT. Such consolidation is indispensable to ensure that future research is undertaken with a solid foundation. This paper aims to present a comprehensive systematic literature review on the role of DT in the built environment. To accomplish this objective, a review and thematic analysis was conducted, encompassing relevant papers from the last five years. The identified papers are categorised based on their specific areas of focus, and the content of these papers was translated into a through classification of DT. In characterising DT and the associated data processes identified, this systematic literature review has identified 6 DT opportunities specifically relevant to the built environment: Facilitating collaborative procurement methods, Supporting net-zero and decarbonization goals, Supporting Modern Methods of Construction (MMC) and off-site manufacturing (OSM), Providing increased transparency and stakeholders collaboration, Supporting complex decision making (real-time simulations and forecasting abilities) and Seamless integration with Internet of Things (IoT), data analytics and other DT. Finally, a discussion of each area of research is provided. A table of definitions of DT across the reviewed literature is provided, seeking to delineate the current state of DT implementation in the built environment context. Gaps in knowledge are identified, as well as research challenges and opportunities for further advancements in the implementation of DT within the built environment. This paper critically assesses the existing literature to identify the potential of DT applications, aiming to harness the transformative capabilities of data in the built environment. By fostering a unified comprehension of DT, this paper contributes to advancing the effective adoption and utilisation of this technology, accelerating progress towards the realisation of smart cities, decarbonisation, and other envisioned roles for DT in the construction domain.

Keywords: built environment, design, digital twins, literature review

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1157 Effect of Temperature on the Permeability and Time-Dependent Change in Thermal Volume of Bentonite Clay During the Heating-Cooling Cycle

Authors: Nilufar Chowdhury, Fereydoun Najafian Jazi, Omid Ghasemi-Fare

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The thermal effect on soil properties induces significant variations in hydraulic conductivity, which is attributable to temperature-dependent transitions in soil properties. With the elevation of temperature, there can be a notable increase in intrinsic permeability due to the degeneration of bound water molecules into a free state facilitated by thermal energy input. Conversely, thermal consolidation may cause a reduction in intrinsic permeability as soil particles undergo densification. This thermal response of soil permeability exhibits pronounced heterogeneity across different soil types. Furthermore, this temperature-induced disruption of the bound water within clay matrices can enhance the mineral-to-mineral contact, initiating irreversible deformation within the clay structure. This indicates that when soil undergoes heating-cooling cycles, plastic strain can develop, which needs to be investigated for every soil type to understand the thermo-hydro mechanical behavior of clay properly. This research aims to study the effect of the heating-cooling cycle on the intrinsic permeability and time-dependent evaluation of thermal volume change of sodium Bentonite clay. A temperature-controlled triaxial permeameter cell is used in this study. The selected temperature is 20° C, 40° C, 40° C and 80° C. The hydraulic conductivity of Bentonite clay under 100 kPa confining stresses was measured. Hydraulic conductivity analysis was performed on a saturated sample for a void ratio e = 0.9, corresponding to a dry density of 1.2 Mg/m3. Different hydraulic gradients were applied between the top and bottom of the sample to obtain a measurable flow through the sample. The hydraulic gradient used for the experiment was 4000. The diameter and thickness of the sample are 101. 6 mm, and 25.4 mm, respectively. Both for heating and cooling, the hydraulic conductivity at each temperature is measured after the flow reaches the steady state condition to make sure the volume change due to thermal loading is stabilized. Thus, soil specimens were kept at a constant temperature during both the heating and cooling phases for at least 10-18 days to facilitate the equilibration of hydraulic transients. To assess the influence of temperature-induced volume changes of Bentonite clay, the evaluation of void ratio change during this time period has been monitored. It is observed that the intrinsic permeability increases by 30-40% during the heating cycle. The permeability during the cooling cycle is 10-12% lower compared to the permeability observed during the heating cycle at a particular temperature. This reduction in permeability implies a change in soil fabric due to the thermal effect. An initial increase followed by a rapid decrease in void ratio was observed, representing the occurrence of possible osmotic swelling phenomena followed by thermal consolidation. It has been observed that after a complete heating-cooling cycle, there is a significant change in the void ratio compared to the initial void ratio of the sample. The results obtained suggest that Bentonite clay’s microstructure can change subject to a complete heating-cooling process, which regulates macro behavior such as the permeability of Bentonite clay.

Keywords: bentonite, permeability, temperature, thermal volume change

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1156 Enhancing Students’ Academic Engagement in Mathematics through a “Concept+Language Mapping” Approach

Authors: Jodie Lee, Lorena Chan, Esther Tong

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Hong Kong students face a unique learning environment. Starting from the 2010/2011 school year, The Education Bureau (EDB) of the Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region implemented the fine-tuned Medium of Instruction (MOI) arrangements for secondary schools. Since then, secondary schools in Hong Kong have been given the flexibility to decide the most appropriate MOI arrangements for their schools and under the new academic structure for senior secondary education, particularly on the compulsory part of the mathematics curriculum. In 2019, Hong Kong Diploma of Secondary Education Examination (HKDSE), over 40% of school day candidates attempted the Mathematics Compulsory Part examination in the Chinese version while the rest took the English version. Moreover, only 14.38% of candidates sat for one of the extended Mathematics modules. This results in a serious of intricate issues to students’ learning in post-secondary education programmes. It is worth to note that when students further pursue to an higher education in Hong Kong or even oversea, they may facing substantial difficulties in transiting learning from learning mathematics in their mother tongue in Chinese-medium instruction (CMI) secondary schools to an English-medium learning environment. Some students understood the mathematics concepts were found to fail to fulfill the course requirements at college or university due to their learning experience in secondary study at CMI. They are particularly weak in comprehending the mathematics questions when they are doing their assessment or attempting the test/examination. A government funded project was conducted with the aims of providing integrated learning context and language support to students with a lower level of numeracy and/or with CMI learning experience. By introducing this “integrated concept + language mapping approach”, students can cope with the learning challenges in the compulsory English-medium mathematics and statistics subjects in their tertiary education. Ultimately, in the hope that students can enhance their mathematical ability, analytical skills, and numerical sense for their lifelong learning. The “Concept + Language Mapping “(CLM) approach was adopted and tried out in the bridging courses for students with a lower level of numeracy and/or with CMI learning experiences. At the beginning of each class, a pre-test was conducted, and class time was then devoted to introducing the concepts by CLM approach. For each concept, the key thematic items and their different semantic relations are presented using graphics and animations via the CLM approach. At the end of each class, a post-test was conducted. Quantitative data analysis was performed to study the effect on students’ learning via the CLM approach. Stakeholders' feedbacks were collected to estimate the effectiveness of the CLM approach in facilitating both content and language learning. The results based on both students’ and lecturers’ feedback indicated positive outcomes on adopting the CLM approach to enhance the mathematical ability and analytical skills of CMI students.

Keywords: mathematics, Concept+Language Mapping, level of numeracy, medium of instruction

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1155 Geospatial Modeling Framework for Enhancing Urban Roadway Intersection Safety

Authors: Neeti Nayak, Khalid Duri

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Despite the many advances made in transportation planning, the number of injuries and fatalities in the United States which involve motorized vehicles near intersections remain largely unchanged year over year. Data from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration for 2018 indicates accidents involving motorized vehicles at traffic intersections accounted for 8,245 deaths and 914,811 injuries. Furthermore, collisions involving pedal cyclists killed 861 people (38% at intersections) and injured 46,295 (68% at intersections), while accidents involving pedestrians claimed 6,247 lives (25% at intersections) and injured 71,887 (56% at intersections)- the highest tallies registered in nearly 20 years. Some of the causes attributed to the rising number of accidents relate to increasing populations and the associated changes in land and traffic usage patterns, insufficient visibility conditions, and inadequate applications of traffic controls. Intersections that were initially designed with a particular land use pattern in mind may be rendered obsolete by subsequent developments. Many accidents involving pedestrians are accounted for by locations which should have been designed for safe crosswalks. Conventional solutions for evaluating intersection safety often require costly deployment of engineering surveys and analysis, which limit the capacity of resource-constrained administrations to satisfy their community’s needs for safe roadways adequately, effectively relegating mitigation efforts for high-risk areas to post-incident responses. This paper demonstrates how geospatial technology can identify high-risk locations and evaluate the viability of specific intersection management techniques. GIS is used to simulate relevant real-world conditions- the presence of traffic controls, zoning records, locations of interest for human activity, design speed of roadways, topographic details and immovable structures. The proposed methodology provides a low-cost mechanism for empowering urban planners to reduce the risks of accidents using 2-dimensional data representing multi-modal street networks, parcels, crosswalks and demographic information alongside 3-dimensional models of buildings, elevation, slope and aspect surfaces to evaluate visibility and lighting conditions and estimate probabilities for jaywalking and risks posed by blind or uncontrolled intersections. The proposed tools were developed using sample areas of Southern California, but the model will scale to other cities which conform to similar transportation standards given the availability of relevant GIS data.

Keywords: crosswalks, cyclist safety, geotechnology, GIS, intersection safety, pedestrian safety, roadway safety, transportation planning, urban design

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1154 Control of Belts for Classification of Geometric Figures by Artificial Vision

Authors: Juan Sebastian Huertas Piedrahita, Jaime Arturo Lopez Duque, Eduardo Luis Perez Londoño, Julián S. Rodríguez

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The process of generating computer vision is called artificial vision. The artificial vision is a branch of artificial intelligence that allows the obtaining, processing, and analysis of any type of information especially the ones obtained through digital images. Actually the artificial vision is used in manufacturing areas for quality control and production, as these processes can be realized through counting algorithms, positioning, and recognition of objects that can be measured by a single camera (or more). On the other hand, the companies use assembly lines formed by conveyor systems with actuators on them for moving pieces from one location to another in their production. These devices must be previously programmed for their good performance and must have a programmed logic routine. Nowadays the production is the main target of every industry, quality, and the fast elaboration of the different stages and processes in the chain of production of any product or service being offered. The principal base of this project is to program a computer that recognizes geometric figures (circle, square, and triangle) through a camera, each one with a different color and link it with a group of conveyor systems to organize the mentioned figures in cubicles, which differ from one another also by having different colors. This project bases on artificial vision, therefore the methodology needed to develop this project must be strict, this one is detailed below: 1. Methodology: 1.1 The software used in this project is QT Creator which is linked with Open CV libraries. Together, these tools perform to realize the respective program to identify colors and forms directly from the camera to the computer. 1.2 Imagery acquisition: To start using the libraries of Open CV is necessary to acquire images, which can be captured by a computer’s web camera or a different specialized camera. 1.3 The recognition of RGB colors is realized by code, crossing the matrices of the captured images and comparing pixels, identifying the primary colors which are red, green, and blue. 1.4 To detect forms it is necessary to realize the segmentation of the images, so the first step is converting the image from RGB to grayscale, to work with the dark tones of the image, then the image is binarized which means having the figure of the image in a white tone with a black background. Finally, we find the contours of the figure in the image to detect the quantity of edges to identify which figure it is. 1.5 After the color and figure have been identified, the program links with the conveyor systems, which through the actuators will classify the figures in their respective cubicles. Conclusions: The Open CV library is a useful tool for projects in which an interface between a computer and the environment is required since the camera obtains external characteristics and realizes any process. With the program for this project any type of assembly line can be optimized because images from the environment can be obtained and the process would be more accurate.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, artificial vision, binarized, grayscale, images, RGB

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1153 Gender Construction in Contemporary Dystopian Fiction in Young Adult Literature: A South African Example

Authors: Johan Anker

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The purpose of this paper is to discuss the nature of gender construction in modern dystopian fiction, the development of this genre in Young Adult Literature and reasons for the enormous appeal on the adolescent readers. A recent award winning South African text in this genre, The Mark by Edith Bullring (2014), will be used as example while also comparing this text to international bestsellers like Divergent (Roth:2011), The Hunger Games (Collins:2008) and others. Theoretical insights from critics and academics in the field of children’s literature, like Ames, Coats, Bradford, Booker, Basu, Green-Barteet, Hintz, McAlear, McCallum, Moylan, Ostry, Ryan, Stephens and Westerfield will be referred to and their insights used as part of the analysis of The Mark. The role of relevant and recurring themes in this genre, like global concerns, environmental destruction, liberty, self-determination, social and political critique, surveillance and repression by the state or other institutions will also be referred to. The paper will shortly refer to the history and emergence of dystopian literature as genre in adult and young adult literature as part of the long tradition since the publishing of Orwell’s 1984 and Huxley’s Brave New World. Different factors appeal to adolescent readers in the modern versions of this hybrid genre for young adults: teenage protagonists who are questioning the underlying values of a flawed society like an inhuman or tyrannical government, a growing understanding of the society around them, feelings of isolation and the dynamic of relationships. This unease leads to a growing sense of the potential to act against society (rebellion), and of their role as agents in a larger community and independent decision-making abilities. This awareness also leads to a growing sense of self (identity and agency) and the development of romantic relationships. The specific modern tendency of a female protagonist as leader in the rebellion against state and state apparatus, who gains in agency and independence in this rebellion, an important part of the identification with and construction of gender, while being part of the traditional coming-of-age young adult novel will be emphasized. A comparison between the traditional themes, structures and plots of young adult literature (YAL) with adult dystopian literature and those of recent dystopian YAL will be made while the hybrid nature of this genre and the 'sense of unease' but also of hope, as an essential part of youth literature, in the closure to these novels will be discussed. Important questions about the role of the didactic nature of these texts and the political issues and the importance of the formation of agency and identity for the young adult reader, as well as identification with the protagonists in this genre, are also part of this discussion of The Mark and other YAL novels.

Keywords: agency, dystopian literature, gender construction, young adult literature

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1152 Aspiring to Achieve a Fairer Society

Authors: Bintou Jobe

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Background: The research is focused on the concept of equality, diversity, and inclusion (EDI) and the need to achieve equity by treating individuals according to their circumstances and needs. The research is rooted in the UK Equality Act 2010, which emphasizes the importance of equal opportunities for all individuals regardless of their background and social life. However, inequality persists in society, particularly for those from minority backgrounds who face discrimination. Research Aim: The aim of this research is to promote equality, diversity, and inclusion by encouraging the regeneration of minds and the eradication of stereotypes. The focus is on promoting good Equality, Diversity and Inclusion practices in various settings, including schools, colleges, universities, and workplaces, to create environments where every individual feels a sense of belonging. Methodology: The research utilises a literature review approach to gather information on promoting inclusivity, diversity, and inclusion. Findings: The research highlights the significance of promoting equality, diversity, and inclusion practices to ensure that individuals receive the respect and dignity they deserve. It emphasises the importance of treating individuals based on their unique circumstances and needs rather than relying on stereotypes. The research also emphasises the benefits of diversity and inclusion in enhancing innovation, creativity, and productivity. The theoretical importance of this research is to raise awareness about the importance of regenerating minds, challenging stereotypes, and promoting equality, diversity, and inclusion. The emphasis is on treating individuals based on their circumstances and needs rather than relying on generalizations. Diversity and inclusion are beneficial in different settings, as highlighted by the research. By raising awareness about the importance of mind regeneration, eradicating stereotypes, and promoting equality, diversity, and inclusion, this research makes a significant contribution to the subject area. It emphasizes the necessity of treating individuals based on their unique circumstances instead of relying on generalizations. However, the methodology could be strengthened by incorporating primary research to complement the literature review approach. Data Collection and Analysis Procedures: The research utilised a literature review approach to gather relevant information on promoting inclusivity, diversity, and inclusion. NVivo software application was used to analysed and synthesize the findings to identify themes and support the research aim and objectives. Question Addressed: This research addresses the question of how to promote inclusivity, diversity, and inclusion and reduce the prevalence of stereotypes and prejudice. It explores the need to treat individuals based on their unique circumstances and needs rather than relying on generic assumptions. Encourage individuals to adopt a more inclusive approach. Provide managers with responsibility and training that helps them understand the importance of their roles in shaping the workplace culture. Have an equality, diversity, and inclusion manager from a majority background at the senior level who can speak up for underrepresented groups and flag any issues that need addressing. Conclusion: The research emphasizes the importance of promoting equality, diversity, and inclusion practices to create a fairer society. It highlights the need to challenge stereotypes, treat individuals according to their circumstances and needs, and promote a culture of respect and dignity.

Keywords: equality, fairer society, inclusion, diversity

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1151 The History and Pattern of Migration from Punjab to West: Colonial to Global Punjab

Authors: Malkit Singh

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This paper presents an in-depth analysis of the problem of migration from Punjab to the West while analyzing the history and patterns of generations of migration of Punjabis to the West. A special emphasis is given to link the present socio-economic and political crisis with the historical pattern of Punjabis’ migration to the West from colonial India to Independent Bharat, along with the stories of the success and failures of Western aspirants’ youth from Punjab. The roots of the migration from Punjab to the West have been traced from the invasion of the British in Punjab, resulting in the socio-economic and political dismantling of the Punjabi society, which resulted in the migration of the Punjabis to the other colonies of the British Empire. The grim position at home despite of all the efforts and hard work by the majority of the Punjabis, particularly from the farmer community and the shining lifestyle of some families of the village or vicinity who have some relatives in the West have encouraged the large number of Punjabis to change their fortune by working in West. However, the Visa and Work Permit regime has closed the doors of the West for those who are unskilled, semi-skilled and not qualified for the visa and work permit norms, but their inspiration to change their fortune by working abroad at any cost has resulted into the development of big business fraud of immigration agent and firms in Punjab that resulted into the loss of the thousands lives, imprisonment in the foreign and selling of the properties of the Punjabis. The greed for the greener pastures in the West and, the plight of the deserted wives of NRIs and the illegal routes adopted by the Punjabi youth due to the non-availability of visas and work permits are dealt in a comprehensive method. The rise and fall of Punjab as a land of the breadbasket of Bharat and the marginalization of the farmers with middle and small holdings due to the capital-intensive techniques are linked with the forced migration of the Punjabis. The failure of the government to address and respond to the rampant corruption, agriculture failure and the resulting problems of law and order before and after the troubled period of militancy in Punjab and the resulting migration to the West are comprehensively covered. The new trend of the Student Visa and Study abroad, particularly in Canada, Australia, and New Zealand, despite of the availability of quality education at very low cost in India. The early success of some students in getting study visas from Australia, Canada, New Zealand etc. and getting permanent immigration to these countries have encouraged the majority of Punjabi youth to leave their motherland for better opportunities in the prosperous lands, that is, again, failed as these countries are flooded with the Punjabi students. Moreover, the total failure of the political leadership of Punjab to address the basic needs of society, like law and order and stop the drug menace issues in the post-militancy Punjab is also done to understand the problem.

Keywords: Punjab, migration, West, agriculture

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1150 An Emergentist Defense of Incompatibility between Morally Significant Freedom and Causal Determinism

Authors: Lubos Rojka

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The common perception of morally responsible behavior is that it presupposes freedom of choice, and that free decisions and actions are not determined by natural events, but by a person. In other words, the moral agent has the ability and the possibility of doing otherwise when making morally responsible decisions, and natural causal determinism cannot fully account for morally significant freedom. The incompatibility between a person’s morally significant freedom and causal determinism appears to be a natural position. Nevertheless, some of the most influential philosophical theories on moral responsibility are compatibilist or semi-compatibilist, and they exclude the requirement of alternative possibilities, which contradicts the claims of classical incompatibilism. The compatibilists often employ Frankfurt-style thought experiments to prove their theory. The goal of this paper is to examine the role of imaginary Frankfurt-style examples in compatibilist accounts. More specifically, the compatibilist accounts defended by John Martin Fischer and Michael McKenna will be inserted into the broader understanding of a person elaborated by Harry Frankfurt, Robert Kane and Walter Glannon. Deeper analysis reveals that the exclusion of alternative possibilities based on Frankfurt-style examples is problematic and misleading. A more comprehensive account of moral responsibility and morally significant (source) freedom requires higher order complex theories of human will and consciousness, in which rational and self-creative abilities and a real possibility to choose otherwise, at least on some occasions during a lifetime, are necessary. Theoretical moral reasons and their logical relations seem to require a sort of higher-order agent-causal incompatibilism. The ability of theoretical or abstract moral reasoning requires complex (strongly emergent) mental and conscious properties, among which an effective free will, together with first and second-order desires. Such a hierarchical theoretical model unifies reasons-responsiveness, mesh theory and emergentism. It is incompatible with physical causal determinism, because such determinism only allows non-systematic processes that may be hard to predict, but not complex (strongly) emergent systems. An agent’s effective will and conscious reflectivity is the starting point of a morally responsible action, which explains why a decision is 'up to the subject'. A free decision does not always have a complete causal history. This kind of an emergentist source hyper-incompatibilism seems to be the best direction of the search for an adequate explanation of moral responsibility in the traditional (merit-based) sense. Physical causal determinism as a universal theory would exclude morally significant freedom and responsibility in the traditional sense because it would exclude the emergence of and supervenience by the essential complex properties of human consciousness.

Keywords: consciousness, free will, determinism, emergence, moral responsibility

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1149 Use of a Business Intelligence Software for Interactive Visualization of Data on the Swiss Elite Sports System

Authors: Corinne Zurmuehle, Andreas Christoph Weber

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In 2019, the Swiss Federal Institute of Sport Magglingen (SFISM) conducted a mixed-methods study on the Swiss elite sports system, which yielded a large quantity of research data. In a quantitative online survey, 1151 elite sports athletes, 542 coaches, and 102 Performance Directors of national sports federations (NF) have submitted their perceptions of the national support measures of the Swiss elite sports system. These data provide an essential database for the further development of the Swiss elite sports system. The results were published in a report presenting the results divided into 40 Olympic summer and 14 winter sports (Olympic classification). The authors of this paper assume that, in practice, this division is too unspecific to assess where further measures would be needed. The aim of this paper is to find appropriate parameters for data visualization in order to identify disparities in sports promotion that allow an assessment of where further interventions by Swiss Olympic (NF umbrella organization) are required. Method: First, the variable 'salary earned from sport' was defined as a variable to measure the impact of elite sports promotion. This variable was chosen as a measure as it represents an important indicator for the professionalization of elite athletes and therefore reflects national level sports promotion measures applied by Swiss Olympic. Afterwards, the variable salary was tested with regard to the correlation between Olympic classification [a], calculating the Eta coefficient. To estimate the appropriate parameters for data visualization, the correlation between salary and four further parameters was analyzed by calculating the Eta coefficient: [a] sport; [b] prioritization (from 1 to 5) of the sports by Swiss Olympic; [c] gender; [d] employment level in sports. Results & Discussion: The analyses reveal a very small correlation between salary and Olympic classification (ɳ² = .011, p = .005). Gender demonstrates an even small correlation (ɳ² = .006, p = .014). The parameter prioritization was correlating with small effect (ɳ² = .017, p = .001) as did employment level (ɳ² = .028, p < .001). The highest correlation was identified by the parameter sport with a moderate effect (ɳ² = .075, p = .047). The analyses show that the disparities in sports promotion cannot be determined by a particular parameter but presumably explained by a combination of several parameters. We argue that the possibility of combining parameters for data visualization should be enabled when the analysis is provided to Swiss Olympic for further strategic decision-making. However, the inclusion of multiple parameters massively multiplies the number of graphs and is therefore not suitable for practical use. Therefore, we suggest to apply interactive dashboards for data visualization using Business Intelligence Software. Practical & Theoretical Contribution: This contribution provides the first attempt to use Business Intelligence Software for strategic decision-making in national level sports regarding the prioritization of national resources for sports and athletes. This allows to set specific parameters with a significant effect as filters. By using filters, parameters can be combined and compared against each other and set individually for each strategic decision.

Keywords: data visualization, business intelligence, Swiss elite sports system, strategic decision-making

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1148 Examining the Influence of Firm Internal Level Factors on Performance Variations among Micro and Small Enterprises: Evidence from Tanzanian Agri-Food Processing Firms

Authors: Pulkeria Pascoe, Hawa P. Tundui, Marcia Dutra de Barcellos, Hans de Steur, Xavier Gellynck

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A majority of Micro and Small Enterprises (MSEs) experience low or no growth. Understanding their performance remains unfinished and disjointed as there is no consensus on the factors influencing it, especially in developing countries. Using a Resource-Based View (RBV) as the theoretical background, this cross-sectional study employed four regression models to examine the influence of firm-level factors (firm-specific characteristics, firm resources, manager socio-demographic characteristics, and selected management practices) on the overall performance variations among 442 Tanzanian micro and small agri-food processing firms. Study results confirmed the RBV argument that intangible resources make a larger contribution to overall performance variations among firms than that tangible resources. Firms' tangible and intangible resources explained 34.5% of overall performance variations (intangible resources explained the overall performance variability by 19.4% compared to tangible resources, which accounted for 15.1%), ranking first in explaining the overall performance variance. Firm-specific characteristics ranked second by influencing variations in overall performance by 29.0%. Selected management practices ranked third (6.3%), while the manager's socio-demographic factors were last on the list, as they influenced the overall performance variability among firms by only 5.1%. The study also found that firms that focus on proper utilization of tangible resources (financial and physical), set targets, and undertake better working capital management practices performed higher than their counterparts (low and average performers). Furthermore, accumulation and proper utilization of intangible resources (relational, organizational, and reputational), undertaking performance monitoring practices, age of the manager, and the choice of the firm location and activity were the dominant significant factors influencing the variations among average and high performers, relative to low performers. The entrepreneurial background was a significant factor influencing variations in average and low-performing firms, indicating that entrepreneurial skills are crucial to achieving average levels of performance. Firm age, size, legal status, source of start-up capital, gender, education level, and total business experience of the manager were not statistically significant variables influencing the overall performance variations among the agri-food processors under the study. The study has identified both significant and non-significant factors influencing performance variations among low, average, and high-performing micro and small agri-food processing firms in Tanzania. Therefore, results from this study will help managers, policymakers and researchers to identify areas where more attention should be placed in order to improve overall performance of MSEs in agri-food industry.

Keywords: firm-level factors, micro and small enterprises, performance, regression analysis, resource-based-view

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1147 Wildlife Trade and Bushmeat Consumption in Benin City, Southern Nigeria: Conservation Implications and Threats to Biodiversity Sustainability

Authors: Sylvia O. Ogoanah, Khalifa Mustapha, Joshua E. Emedo

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Despite the call for wildlife conservation and sustainability, wildlife trade and bushmeat consumption seem to have reached an all-time high in Benin City, Southern Nigeria. This necessitated the survey of wildlife trade, otherwise called bushmeat, in selected markets in Benin City, Southern Nigeria, between December 2015 and May 2016 (dry season) and June to September (rainy season). Although the eight markets randomly selected within the urban and peri-urban areas operate daily, visits were made weekly to prevent double counting of the same live specimen. On each visit, counts were made of live specimens seen while those cut in parts and dried were identified by the vendors before photographing and recording. Quantitative data analysis was done using SPSS 14 software programs. A total of two thousand five hundred and eighty-nine (2589) bushmeat specimens comprising six mammals and a reptile were recorded for the rainy season. These included the grasscutter (Thryonomis swinderianus) with an abundance of 37.9%, duikers (Sylvicapra grimma) 31.8%, porcupines (Artherurus africanus) 25.0 %, alligators (Alligator mississipienus) 3.2%, pangolins (Manis tricuspis) 0.85%, bush-pig (Potachoerus porcus) 0.7%, and the white-throated monkey (Cercopithecus erythrogaster) 0.5%, respectively. The dry season sampling recorded nine thousand seven hundred and ninety-three (9793) specimens comprising four mammals and one reptile. Species recorded included Thryonomis swinderianus (grasscutters) 35.8%, Artherurus africanus (porcupine) 30.1%, Sylvicapra grimmia (duikers) 21.8%, Alligator mississipiensis (alligators) 6.18% with juveniles 2.27% and Manis tricuspis (pangolin) 3.58%, The designated Central bush meat market as well as markets in the peri-urban areas recorded the highest number of specimens. The three dominant species in both rainy and dry seasons were the grasscutters, porcupines, and duikers, with the grasscutter having the highest dominance of 37.9% and 35.8%, respectively. There was a significant difference between the rainy and dry season samplings p=0.001. The increase in specimens collected in the dry season could be due to greater exposure due to reduced vegetation cover. The high number of specimens arising from weekly sampling from markets that operate daily could be used as an estimation of wildlife specimens captured over the period. This poses a great threat to wildlife conservation as juveniles, as well as endangered species, are hunted indiscriminately. Educating the people with emphasis on the importance of sustainability and conservation, rearing of the grasscutter, which is in high demand and enforcement of existing laws on wildlife trade offenses would help in reducing threats to wildlife conservation.

Keywords: bushmeat consumption, conservation implications, Southern Nigeria, threats, wildlife trade

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1146 Cut-Off of CMV Cobas® Taqman® (CAP/CTM Roche®) for Introduction of Ganciclovir Pre-Emptive Therapy in Allogeneic Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplant Recipients

Authors: B. B. S. Pereira, M. O. Souza, L. P. Zanetti, L. C. S. Oliveira, J. R. P. Moreno, M. P. Souza, V. R. Colturato, C. M. Machado

Abstract:

Background: The introduction of prophylactic or preemptive therapies has effectively decreased the CMV mortality rates after hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT). CMV antigenemia (pp65) or quantitative PCR are methods currently approved for CMV surveillance in pre-emptive strategies. Commercial assays are preferred as cut-off levels defined by in-house assays may vary among different protocols and in general show low reproducibility. Moreover, comparison of published data among different centers is only possible if international standards of quantification are included in the assays. Recently, the World Health Organization (WHO) established the first international standard for CMV detection. The real time PCR COBAS Ampliprep/ CobasTaqMan (CAP/CTM) (Roche®) was developed using the WHO standard for CMV quantification. However, the cut-off for the introduction of antiviral has not been determined yet. Methods: We conducted a retrospective study to determine: 1) the sensitivity and specificity of the new CMV CAP/CTM test in comparison with pp65 antigenemia to detect episodes of CMV infection/reactivation, and 2) the cut-off of viral load for introduction of ganciclovir (GCV). Pp65 antigenemia was performed and the corresponding plasma samples were stored at -20°C for further CMV detection by CAP/CTM. Comparison of tests was performed by kappa index. The appearance of positive antigenemia was considered the state variable to determine the cut-off of CMV viral load by ROC curve. Statistical analysis was performed using SPSS software version 19 (SPSS, Chicago, IL, USA.). Results: Thirty-eight patients were included and followed from August 2014 through May 2015. The antigenemia test detected 53 episodes of CMV infection in 34 patients (89.5%), while CAP/CTM detected 37 episodes in 33 patients (86.8%). AG and PCR results were compared in 431 samples and Kappa index was 30.9%. The median time for first AG detection was 42 (28-140) days, while CAP/CTM detected at a median of 7 days earlier (34 days, ranging from 7 to 110 days). The optimum cut-off value of CMV DNA was 34.25 IU/mL to detect positive antigenemia with 88.2% of sensibility, 100% of specificity and AUC of 0.91. This cut-off value is below the limit of detection and quantification of the equipment which is 56 IU/mL. According to CMV recurrence definition, 16 episodes of CMV recurrence were detected by antigenemia (47.1%) and 4 (12.1%) by CAP/CTM. The duration of viremia as detected by antigenemia was shorter (60.5% of the episodes lasted ≤ 7 days) in comparison to CAP/CTM (57.9% of the episodes lasting 15 days or more). This data suggests that the use of antigenemia to define the duration of GCV therapy might prompt early interruption of antiviral, which may favor CMV reactivation. The CAP/CTM PCR could possibly provide a safer information concerning the duration of GCV therapy. As prolonged treatment may increase the risk of toxicity, this hypothesis should be confirmed in prospective trials. Conclusions: Even though CAP/CTM by ROCHE showed great qualitative correlation with the antigenemia technique, the fully automated CAP/CTM did not demonstrate increased sensitivity. The cut-off value below the limit of detection and quantification may result in delayed introduction of pre-emptive therapy.

Keywords: antigenemia, CMV COBAS/TAQMAN, cytomegalovirus, antiviral cut-off

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1145 Analysis of Influencing Factors on Infield-Logistics: A Survey of Different Farm Types in Germany

Authors: Michael Mederle, Heinz Bernhardt

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The Management of machine fleets or autonomous vehicle control will considerably increase efficiency in future agricultural production. Especially entire process chains, e.g. harvesting complexes with several interacting combine harvesters, grain carts, and removal trucks, provide lots of optimization potential. Organization and pre-planning ensure to get these efficiency reserves accessible. One way to achieve this is to optimize infield path planning. Particularly autonomous machinery requires precise specifications about infield logistics to be navigated effectively and process optimized in the fields individually or in machine complexes. In the past, a lot of theoretical optimization has been done regarding infield logistics, mainly based on field geometry. However, there are reasons why farmers often do not apply the infield strategy suggested by mathematical route planning tools. To make the computational optimization more useful for farmers this study focuses on these influencing factors by expert interviews. As a result practice-oriented navigation not only to the field but also within the field will be possible. The survey study is intended to cover the entire range of German agriculture. Rural mixed farms with simple technology equipment are considered as well as large agricultural cooperatives which farm thousands of hectares using track guidance and various other electronic assistance systems. First results show that farm managers using guidance systems increasingly attune their infield-logistics on direction giving obstacles such as power lines. In consequence, they can avoid inefficient boom flippings while doing plant protection with the sprayer. Livestock farmers rather focus on the application of organic manure with its specific requirements concerning road conditions, landscape terrain or field access points. Cultivation of sugar beets makes great demands on infield patterns because of its particularities such as the row crop system or high logistics demands. Furthermore, several machines working in the same field simultaneously influence each other, regardless whether or not they are of the equal type. Specific infield strategies always are based on interactions of several different influences and decision criteria. Single working steps like tillage, seeding, plant protection or harvest mostly cannot be considered each individually. The entire production process has to be taken into consideration to detect the right infield logistics. One long-term objective of this examination is to integrate the obtained influences on infield strategies as decision criteria into an infield navigation tool. In this way, path planning will become more practical for farmers which is a basic requirement for automatic vehicle control and increasing process efficiency.

Keywords: autonomous vehicle control, infield logistics, path planning, process optimizing

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1144 Controlled Synthesis of Pt₃Sn-SnOx/C Electrocatalysts for Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Fuel Cells

Authors: Dorottya Guban, Irina Borbath, Istvan Bakos, Peter Nemeth, Andras Tompos

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One of the greatest challenges of the implementation of polymer electrolyte membrane fuel cells (PEMFCs) is to find active and durable electrocatalysts. The cell performance is always limited by the oxygen reduction reaction (ORR) on the cathode since it is at least 6 orders of magnitude slower than the hydrogen oxidation on the anode. Therefore high loading of Pt is required. Catalyst corrosion is also more significant on the cathode, especially in case of mobile applications, where rapid changes of loading have to be tolerated. Pt-Sn bulk alloys and SnO2-decorated Pt3Sn nanostructures are among the most studied bimetallic systems for fuel cell applications. Exclusive formation of supported Sn-Pt alloy phases with different Pt/Sn ratios can be achieved by using controlled surface reactions (CSRs) between hydrogen adsorbed on Pt sites and tetraethyl tin. In this contribution our results for commercial and a home-made 20 wt.% Pt/C catalysts modified by tin anchoring via CSRs are presented. The parent Pt/C catalysts were synthesized by modified NaBH4-assisted ethylene-glycol reduction method using ethanol as a solvent, which resulted either in dispersed and highly stable Pt nanoparticles or evenly distributed raspberry-like agglomerates according to the chosen synthesis parameters. The 20 wt.% Pt/C catalysts prepared that way showed improved electrocatalytic performance in the ORR and stability in comparison to the commercial 20 wt.% Pt/C catalysts. Then, in order to obtain Sn-Pt/C catalysts with Pt/Sn= 3 ratio, the Pt/C catalysts were modified with tetraethyl tin (SnEt4) using three and five consecutive tin anchoring periods. According to in situ XPS studies in case of catalysts with highly dispersed Pt nanoparticles, pre-treatment in hydrogen even at 170°C resulted in complete reduction of the ionic tin to Sn0. No evidence of the presence of SnO2 phase was found by means of the XRD and EDS analysis. These results demonstrate that the method of CSRs is a powerful tool to create Pt-Sn bimetallic nanoparticles exclusively, without tin deposition onto the carbon support. On the contrary, the XPS results revealed that the tin-modified catalysts with raspberry-like Pt agglomerates always contained a fraction of non-reducible tin oxide. At the same time, they showed increased activity and long-term stability in the ORR than Pt/C, which was assigned to the presence of SnO2 in close proximity/contact with Pt-Sn alloy phase. It has been demonstrated that the content and dispersion of the fcc Pt3Sn phase within the electrocatalysts can be controlled by tuning the reaction conditions of CSRs. The bimetallic catalysts displayed an outstanding performance in the ORR. The preparation of a highly dispersed 20Pt/C catalyst permits to decrease the Pt content without relevant decline in the electrocatalytic performance of the catalysts.

Keywords: anode catalyst, cathode catalyst, controlled surface reactions, oxygen reduction reaction, PtSn/C electrocatalyst

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1143 Doctor-Patient Interaction in an L2: Pragmatic Study of a Nigerian Experience

Authors: Ayodele James Akinola

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This study investigated the use of English in doctor-patient interaction in a university teaching hospital from a southwestern state in Nigeria with the aim of identifying the role of communication in an L2, patterns of communication, discourse strategies, pragmatic acts, and contexts that shape the interaction. Jacob Mey’s Pragmatic Acts notion complemented with Emanuel and Emanuel’s model of doctor-patient relationship provided the theoretical standpoint. Data comprising 7 audio-recorded doctors-patient interactions were collected from a University Hospital in Oyo state, Nigeria. Interactions involving the use of English language were purposefully selected. These were supplemented with patients’ case notes and interviews conducted with doctors. Transcription was patterned alongside modified Arminen’s notations of conversation analysis. In the study, interaction in English between doctor and patients has the preponderance of direct-translation, code-mixing and switching, Nigerianism and use of cultural worldviews to express medical experience. Irrespective of these, three patterns communication, namely the paternalistic, interpretive, and deliberative were identified. These were exhibited through varying discourse strategies. The paternalistic model reflected slightly casual conversational conventions and registers. These were achieved through the pragmemic activities of situated speech acts, psychological and physical acts, via patients’ quarrel-induced acts, controlled and managed through doctors’ shared situation knowledge. All these produced empathising, pacifying, promising and instructing practs. The patients’ practs were explaining, provoking, associating and greeting in the paternalistic model. The informative model reveals the use of adjacency pairs, formal turn-taking, precise detailing, institutional talks and dialogic strategies. Through the activities of the speech, prosody and physical acts, the practs of declaring, alerting and informing were utilised by doctors, while the patients exploited adapting, requesting and selecting practs. The negotiating conversational strategy of the deliberative model featured in the speech, prosody and physical acts. In this model, practs of suggesting, teaching, persuading and convincing were utilised by the doctors. The patients deployed the practs of questioning, demanding, considering and deciding. The contextual variables revealed that other patterns (such as phatic and informative) are also used and they coalesced in the hospital within the situational and psychological contexts. However, the paternalistic model was predominantly employed by doctors with over six years in practice, while the interpretive, informative and deliberative models were found among registrar and others below six years of medical practice. Doctors’ experience, patients’ peculiarities and shared cultural knowledge influenced doctor-patient communication in the study.

Keywords: pragmatics, communication pattern, doctor-patient interaction, Nigerian hospital situation

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1142 Challenges in the Last Mile of the Global Guinea Worm Eradication Program: A Systematic Review

Authors: Getahun Lemma

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Introduction Guinea Worm Disease (GWD), also known as dracunculiasisis, is one of the oldest diseases in the history of mankind. Dracunculiasis is caused by a parasitic nematode, Dracunculus medinensis. Infection is acquired by drinking contaminated water with copepods containing infective Guinea Worm (GW) larvae). Almost one year after the infection, the worm usually emerges out through the skin on a lower, causing severe pain and disabilities. Although there is no effective drug or vaccine against the disease, the chain of transmission can be effectively prevented with simple and cost effective public health measures. Death due to dracunculiasis is very rare. However, it results in a wide range of physical, social and economic sequels. The disease is usually common in the rural, remote places of Sub-Saharan African countries among the marginalized societies. Currently, GWD is one of the neglected tropical diseases, which is on the verge of eradication. The global Guinea Worm Eradication Program (GWEP) was started in 1980. Since then, the program has achieved a tremendous success in reducing the global burden and number of GW case from 3.5 million to only 28 human cases at the end of 2018. However, it has recently been shown that not only humans can become infected, with a total of 1,105 animal infections have been reported at the end of 2018. Therefore, the objective of this study was to identify the existing challenges in the last mile of the GWEP in order To inform Policy makers and stakeholders on potential measures to finally achieve eradication. Method Systematic literature review on articles published from January 1, 2000 until May 30, 2019. Papers listed in Cochrane Library, Google Scholar, ProQuest PubMed and Web of Science databases were searched and reviewed. Results Twenty-five articles met inclusion criteria of the study and were selected for analysis. Hence, relevant data were extracted, grouped and descriptively analyzed. Results showed the main challenges complicating the last mile of global GWEP: 1. Unusual mode of transmission; 2. Rising animal Guinea Worm infection; 3. Suboptimal surveillance; 4. Insecurity; 5. Inaccessibility; 6. Inadequate safe water points; 7. Migration; 8. Poor case containment measures, 9. Ecological changes; and 10. New geographic foci of the disease. Conclusion This systematic review identified that most of the current challenges in the GWEP have been present since the start of the campaign. However, the recent change in epidemiological patterns and nature of GWD in the last remaining endemic countries illustrates a new twist in the global GWEP. Considering the complex nature of the current challenges, there seems to be a need for a more coordinated and multidisciplinary approach of GWD prevention and control measures in the last mile of the campaign. These new strategies would help to make history by eradicating dracunculiasis as the first ever parasitic disease.

Keywords: dracunculiasis, eradication program, guinea worm, last mile

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1141 The Involvement of the Homing Receptors CCR7 and CD62L in the Pathogenesis of Graft-Versus-Host Disease

Authors: Federico Herrera, Valle Gomez García de Soria, Itxaso Portero Sainz, Carlos Fernández Arandojo, Mercedes Royg, Ana Marcos Jimenez, Anna Kreutzman, Cecilia MuñozCalleja

Abstract:

Introduction: Graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) still remains the major complication associated with allogeneic stem cell transplantation (SCT). The pathogenesis involves migration of donor naïve T-cells into recipient secondary lymphoid organs. Two molecules are important in this process: CD62L and CCR7, which are characteristically expressed in naïve/central memory T-cells. With this background, we aimed to study the influence of CCR7 and CD62L on donor lymphocytes in the development and severity of GVHD. Material and methods: This single center study included 98 donor-recipient pairs. Samples were collected prospectively from the apheresis product and phenotyped by flow cytometry. CCR7 and CD62L expression in CD4+ and CD8+ T-cells were compared between patients who developed acute (n=40) or chronic GVHD (n=33) and those who did not (n=38). Results: The patients who developed acute GVHD were transplanted with a higher percentage of CCR7+CD4+ T-cells (p = 0.05) compared to the no GVHD group. These results were confirmed when these patients were divided in degrees according to the severity of the disease; the more severe disease, the higher percentage of CCR7+CD4+ T-cells. Conversely, chronic GVHD patients received a higher percentage of CCR7+CD8+ T-cells (p=0.02) in comparison to those who did not develop the complication. These data were also confirmed when patients were subdivided in degrees of the disease severity. A multivariable analysis confirmed that percentage of CCR7+CD4+ T-cells is a predictive factor of acute GVHD whereas the percentage of CCR7+CD8+ T-cells is a predictive factor of chronic GVHD. In vitro functional assays (migration and activation assays) supported the idea of CCR7+ T-cells were involved in the development of GVHD. As low levels of CD62L expression were detected in all apheresis products, we tested the hypothesis that CD62L was shed during apheresis procedure. Comparing CD62L surface levels in T-cells from the same donor immediately before collecting the apheresis product, and the final apheresis product we found that this process down-regulated CD62L in both CD4+ and CD8+ T cells (p=0.008). Interestingly, when CD62L levels were analysed in days 30 or 60 after engraftment, they recovered to baseline (p=0.008). However, to investigate the relation between CD62L expression and the development of GVHD in the recipient samples after the engraftment, no differences were observed comparing patients with GVHD to those who did not develop the disease. Discussion: Our prospective study indicates that the CCR7+ T-cells from the donor, which include naïve and central memory T-cells, contain the alloreactive cells with a high ability to mediate GVHD (in the case of both migration and activation). Therefore we suggest that the proportion and functional properties of CCR7+CD4+ and CCR7+CD8+ T-cells in the apheresis could act as a predictive biomarker to both acute and chronic GVHD respectively. Importantly, our study precludes that CD62L is lost in the apheresis and therefore it is not a reliable biomarker for the development of GVHD.

Keywords: CCR7, CD62L, GVHD, SCT

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1140 Malaysia as a Case Study for Climate Policy Integration into Energy Policy

Authors: Marcus Lee

Abstract:

The energy sector is the largest contributor of greenhouse gas emissions in Malaysia, which induces climate change. The climate change problem is therefore an energy sector problem. Tackling climate change issues successfully is contingent on actions taken in the energy sector. The researcher propounds that ‘Climate Policy Integration’ (CPI) into energy policy is a viable and insufficiently developed strategy in Malaysia that promotes the synergies between climate change and energy objectives, in order to achieve the targets found in both climate change and energy policies. In exploring this hypothesis, this paper presentation will focus on two particular aspects. Firstly, the meaning of CPI as an approach and as a concept will be explored. As an approach, CPI into energy policy means the integration of climate change objectives into the energy policy area. Its subject matter focuses on establishing the functional interrelations between climate change and energy objectives, by promoting their synergies and minimising their contradictions. However, its conceptual underpinnings are less than straightforward. Drawing from the ‘principle of integration’ found in international treaties and declarations such as the Stockholm Declaration 1972, the Rio Declaration 1992 and the United Nations Framework on Climate Change 1992 (‘UNFCCC’), this paper presentation will explore the contradictions in international standards on how the sustainable development tenets of environmental sustainability, social development and economic development are to be balanced and its relevance to CPI. Further, the researcher will consider whether authority may be derived from international treaties and declarations in order to argue for the prioritisation of environmental sustainability over the other sustainable development tenets through CPI. Secondly, this paper presentation will also explore the degree to which CPI into energy policy has been achieved and pursued in Malaysia. In particular, the strength of the conceptual framework with regard to CPI in Malaysian governance will be considered by assessing Malaysia’s National Policy on Climate Change (2009) (‘NPCC 2009’). The development (or the lack of) of CPI as an approach since the publication of the NPCC 2009 will also be assessed based on official government documents and policies that may have a climate change and/or energy agenda. Malaysia’s National Renewable Energy Policy and Action Plan (2010), draft National Energy Efficiency Action Plan (2014), Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (2015) in relation to the Paris Agreement, 11th Malaysia Plan (2015) and Biennial Update Report to the UNFCCC (2015) will be discussed. These documents will be assessed for the presence of CPI based on the language/drafting of the documents as well as the degree of subject matter regarding CPI expressed in the documents. Based on the analysis, the researcher will propose solutions on how to improve Malaysia’s climate change and energy governance. The theory of reflexive governance will be applied to CPI. The concluding remarks will be about whether CPI reflects reflexive governance by demonstrating how the governance process can be the object of shaping outcomes.

Keywords: climate policy integration, mainstreaming, policy coherence, Malaysian energy governance

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1139 Structure Modification of Leonurine to Improve Its Potency as Aphrodisiac

Authors: Ruslin, R. E. Kartasasmita, M. S. Wibowo, S. Ibrahim

Abstract:

An aphrodisiac is a substance contained in food or drug that can arouse sexual instinct and increase pleasure while working, these substances derived from plants, animals, and minerals. When consuming substances that have aphrodisiac activity and duration can improve the sexual instinct. The natural aphrodisiac effect can be obtained through plants, animals, and minerals. Leonurine compound has aphrodisiac activity, these compounds can be isolated from plants of Leonurus Sp, Sundanese people is known as deundereman, this plant is empirical has aphrodisiac activity and based on the isolation of active compounds from plants known to contain compounds leonurine, so that the compound is expected to have activity aphrodisiac. Leonurine compound can be isolated from plants or synthesized chemically with material dasa siringat acid. Leonurine compound can be obtained commercial and derivatives of these compounds can be synthesized in an effort to increase its activity. This study aims to obtain derivatives leonurine better aphrodisiac activity compared with the parent compound, modified the structure of the compounds in the form leonurin guanidino butyl ester group with butyl amin and bromoetanol. ArgusLab program version 4.0.1 is used to determine the binding energy, hydrogen bonds and amino acids involved in the interaction of the compound PDE5 receptor. The in vivo test leonurine compounds and derivatives as an aphrodisiac ingredients and hormone testosterone levels using 27 male rats Wistar strain and 9 female mice of the same species, ages ranged from 12 weeks rats weighing + 200 g / tail. The test animal is divided into 9 groups according to the type of compounds and the dose given. Each treatment group was orally administered 2 ml per day for 5 days. On the sixth day was observed male rat sexual behavior and taking blood from the heart to measure testosterone levels using ELISA technique. Statistical analysis was performed in this study is the ANOVA test Least Square Differences (LSD) using the program Statistical Product and Service Solutions (SPSS). Aphrodisiac efficacy of the leonurine compound and its derivatives have proven in silico and in vivo test, the in silico testing leonurine derivatives have smaller binding energy derivatives leonurine so that activity better than leonurine compounds. Testing in vivo using rats of wistar strain that better leonurine derivative of this compound shows leonurine that in silico studies in parallel with in vivo tests. Modification of the structure in the form of guanidine butyl ester group with butyl amin and bromoethanol increase compared leonurine compound for aphrodisiac activity, testosterone derivatives of compounds leonurine experienced a significant improvement especial is 1RD compounds especially at doses of 100 and 150 mg/bb. The results showed that the compound leonurine and its compounds contain aphrodisiac activity and increase the amount of testosterone in the blood. The compound test used in this study acts as a steroid precursor resulting in increased testosterone.

Keywords: aphrodisiac dysfunction erectile leonurine 1-RD 2-RD, dysfunction, erectile leonurine, 1-RD 2-RD

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1138 Verification of the Supercavitation Phenomena: Investigation of the Cavity Parameters and Drag Coefficients for Different Types of Cavitator

Authors: Sezer Kefeli, Sertaç Arslan

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Supercavitation is a pressure dependent process which gives opportunity to eliminate the wetted surface effects on the underwater vehicle due to the differences of viscosity and velocity effects between liquid (freestream) and gas phase. Cavitation process occurs depending on rapid pressure drop or temperature rising in liquid phase. In this paper, pressure based cavitation is investigated due to the fact that is encountered in the underwater world, generally. Basically, this vapor-filled pressure based cavities are unstable and harmful for any underwater vehicle because these cavities (bubbles or voids) lead to intense shock waves while collapsing. On the other hand, supercavitation is a desired and stabilized phenomena than general pressure based cavitation. Supercavitation phenomena offers the idea of minimizing form drag, and thus supercavitating vehicles are revived. When proper circumstances are set up, which are either increasing the operating speed of the underwater vehicle or decreasing the pressure difference between free stream and artificial pressure, the continuity of the supercavitation is obtainable. There are 2 types of supercavitation to obtain stable and continuous supercavitation, and these are called as natural and artificial supercavitation. In order to generate natural supercavitation, various mechanical structures are discovered, which are called as cavitators. In literature, a lot of cavitator types are studied either experimentally or numerically on a CFD platforms with intent to observe natural supercavitation since the 1900s. In this paper, firstly, experimental results are obtained, and trend lines are generated based on supercavitation parameters in terms of cavitation number (), form drag coefficientC_D, dimensionless cavity diameter (d_m/d_c), and length (L_c/d_c). After that, natural cavitation verification studies are carried out for disk and cone shape cavitators. In addition, supercavitation parameters are numerically analyzed at different operating conditions, and CFD results are fitted into trend lines of experimental results. The aims of this paper are to generate one generally accepted drag coefficient equation for disk and cone cavitators at different cavitator half angle and investigation of the supercavitation parameters with respect to cavitation number. Moreover, 165 CFD analysis are performed at different cavitation numbers on FLUENT version 21R2. Five different cavitator types are modeled on SCDM with respect tocavitator’s half angles. After that, CFD database is generated depending on numerical results, and new trend lines are generated based on supercavitation parameters. These trend lines are compared with experimental results. Finally, the generally accepted drag coefficient equation and equations of supercavitation parameters are generated.

Keywords: cavity envelope, CFD, high speed underwater vehicles, supercavitation, supercavitating flows, supercavitation parameters, drag reduction, viscous force elimination, natural cavitation verification

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1137 Foodborne Outbreak Calendar: Application of Time Series Analysis

Authors: Ryan B. Simpson, Margaret A. Waskow, Aishwarya Venkat, Elena N. Naumova

Abstract:

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimate that 31 known foodborne pathogens cause 9.4 million cases of these illnesses annually in US. Over 90% of these illnesses are associated with exposure to Campylobacter, Cryptosporidium, Cyclospora, Listeria, Salmonella, Shigella, Shiga-Toxin Producing E.Coli (STEC), Vibrio, and Yersinia. Contaminated products contain parasites typically causing an intestinal illness manifested by diarrhea, stomach cramping, nausea, weight loss, fatigue and may result in deaths in fragile populations. Since 1998, the National Outbreak Reporting System (NORS) has allowed for routine collection of suspected and laboratory-confirmed cases of food poisoning. While retrospective analyses have revealed common pathogen-specific seasonal patterns, little is known concerning the stability of those patterns over time and whether they can be used for preventative forecasting. The objective of this study is to construct a calendar of foodborne outbreaks of nine infections based on the peak timing of outbreak incidence in the US from 1996 to 2017. Reported cases were abstracted from FoodNet for Salmonella (135115), Campylobacter (121099), Shigella (48520), Cryptosporidium (21701), STEC (18022), Yersinia (3602), Vibrio (3000), Listeria (2543), and Cyclospora (758). Monthly counts were compiled for each agent, seasonal peak timing and peak intensity were estimated, and the stability of seasonal peaks and synchronization of infections was examined. Negative Binomial harmonic regression models with the delta-method were applied to derive confidence intervals for the peak timing for each year and overall study period estimates. Preliminary results indicate that five infections continue to lead as major causes of outbreaks, exhibiting steady upward trends with annual increases in cases ranging from 2.71% (95%CI: [2.38, 3.05]) in Campylobacter, 4.78% (95%CI: [4.14, 5.41]) in Salmonella, 7.09% (95%CI: [6.38, 7.82]) in E.Coli, 7.71% (95%CI: [6.94, 8.49]) in Cryptosporidium, and 8.67% (95%CI: [7.55, 9.80]) in Vibrio. Strong synchronization of summer outbreaks were observed, caused by Campylobacter, Vibrio, E.Coli and Salmonella, peaking at 7.57 ± 0.33, 7.84 ± 0.47, 7.85 ± 0.37, and 7.82 ± 0.14 calendar months, respectively, with the serial cross-correlation ranging 0.81-0.88 (p < 0.001). Over 21 years, Listeria and Cryptosporidium peaks (8.43 ± 0.77 and 8.52 ± 0.45 months, respectively) have a tendency to arrive 1-2 weeks earlier, while Vibrio peaks (7.8 ± 0.47) delay by 2-3 weeks. These findings will be incorporated in the forecast models to predict common paths of the spread, long-term trends, and the synchronization of outbreaks across etiological agents. The predictive modeling of foodborne outbreaks should consider long-term changes in seasonal timing, spatiotemporal trends, and sources of contamination.

Keywords: foodborne outbreak, national outbreak reporting system, predictive modeling, seasonality

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1136 Effect of Energy Management Practices on Sustaining Competitive Advantage among Manufacturing Firms: A Case of Selected Manufacturers in Nairobi, Kenya

Authors: Henry Kiptum Yatich, Ronald Chepkilot, Aquilars Mutuku Kalio

Abstract:

Studies on energy management have focused on environmental conservation, reduction in production and operation expenses. However, transferring gains of energy management practices to competitive advantage is importance to manufacturers in Kenya. Success in managing competitive advantage arises out of a firm’s ability in identifying and implementing actions that can give the company an edge over its rivals. Manufacturing firms in Kenya are the highest consumers of both electricity and petroleum products. In this regard, the study posits that transfer of the gains of energy management practices to competitive advantage is imperative. The study was carried in Nairobi and its environs, which hosts the largest number of manufacturers. The study objectives were; to determine the level of implementing energy management regulations on sustaining competitive advantage, to determine the level of implementing company energy management policy on competitive advantage, to examine the level of implementing energy efficient technology on sustaining competitive advantage, and to assess the percentage energy expenditure on sustaining competitive advantage among manufacturing firms. The study adopted a survey research design, with a study population of 145,987. A sample of 384 respondents was selected randomly from 21 proportionately selected firms. Structured questionnaires were used to collect data. Data analysis was done using descriptive statistics (mean and standard deviations) and inferential statistics (correlation, regression, and T-test). Data is presented using tables and diagrams. The study found that Energy Management Regulations, Company Energy Management Policies, and Energy Expenses are significant predictors of Competitive Advantage (CA). However, Energy Efficient Technology as a component of Energy Management Practices did not have a significant relationship with Competitive Advantage. The study revealed that the level of awareness in the sector stood at 49.3%. Energy Expenses in the sector stood at an average of 10.53% of the firm’s total revenue. The study showed that gains from energy efficiency practices can be transferred to competitive strategies so as to improve firm competitiveness. The study recommends that manufacturing firms should consider energy management practices as part of its strategic agenda in assessing and reviewing their energy management practices as possible strategies for sustaining competitiveness. The government agencies such as Energy Regulatory Commission, the Ministry of Energy and Petroleum, and Kenya Association of Manufacturers should enforce the energy management regulations 2012, and with enhanced stakeholder involvement and sensitization so as promote sustenance of firm competitiveness. Government support in providing incentives and rebates for acquisition of energy efficient technologies should be pursued. From the study limitation, future experimental and longitudinal studies need to be carried out. It should be noted that energy management practices yield enormous benefits to all stakeholders and that the practice should not be considered a competitive tool but rather as a universal practice.

Keywords: energy, efficiency, management, guidelines, policy, technology, competitive advantage

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