Search results for: network structuring

Authors: Danna Jia, Bin Li

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Background: Atopic dermatitis (AD) is a chronic and refractory inflammatory skin disease characterized by relapsing eczematous and pruritic skin lesions. The global prevalence of AD ranges from 1~ 20%, and its incidence rates are increasing. It affects individuals from infancy to adulthood, significantly impacting their daily lives and social activities. Despite its major health burden, the precise mechanisms underlying AD remain unknown. Understanding the genetic differences associated with AD is crucial for advancing diagnosis and targeted treatment development. This study aims to identify candidate genes of AD by using bioinformatics analysis. Methods: We conducted a comprehensive analysis of four pooled transcriptomic datasets (GSE16161, GSE32924, GSE130588, and GSE120721) obtained from the Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) database. Differential gene expression analysis was performed using the R statistical language. The differentially expressed genes (DEGs) between AD patients and normal individuals were functionally analyzed using Gene Ontology (GO) and the Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) pathway enrichment. Furthermore, a protein-protein interaction (PPI) network was constructed to identify candidate genes. Results: Among the patient-level gene expression datasets, we identified 114 shared DEGs, consisting of 53 upregulated genes and 61 downregulated genes. Functional analysis using GO and KEGG revealed that the DEGs were mainly associated with the negative regulation of transcription from RNA polymerase II promoter, membrane-related functions, protein binding, and the Human papillomavirus infection pathway. Through the PPI network analysis, we identified eight core genes: CD44, STAT1, HMMR, AURKA, MKI67, and SMARCA4. Conclusion: This study elucidates key genes associated with AD, providing potential targets for diagnosis and treatment. The identified genes have the potential to contribute to the understanding and management of AD. The bioinformatics analysis conducted in this study offers new insights and directions for further research on AD. Future studies can focus on validating the functional roles of these genes and exploring their therapeutic potential in AD. While these findings will require further verification as achieved with experiments involving in vivo and in vitro models, these results provided some initial insights into dysfunctional inflammatory and immune responses associated with AD. Such information offers the potential to develop novel therapeutic targets for use in preventing and treating AD.

Keywords: atopic dermatitis, bioinformatics, biomarkers, genes

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Authors: Harris Niavis, Dimitra Politaki

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The manufacturing industry was collecting vast amounts of data for monitoring product quality thanks to the advances in the ICT sector and dedicated IoT infrastructure is deployed to track and trace the production line. However, industries have not yet managed to unleash the full potential of these data due to defective data collection methods and untrusted data storage and sharing. Blockchain is gaining increasing ground as a key technology enabler for Industry 4.0 and the smart manufacturing domain, as it enables the secure storage and exchange of data between stakeholders. On the other hand, AI techniques are more and more used to detect anomalies in batch and time-series data that enable the identification of unusual behaviors. The proposed scheme is based on smart contracts to enable automation and transparency in the data exchange, coupled with anomaly detection algorithms to enable reliable data ingestion in the system. Before sensor measurements are fed to the blockchain component and the smart contracts, the anomaly detection mechanism uniquely combines artificial intelligence models to effectively detect unusual values such as outliers and extreme deviations in data coming from them. Specifically, Autoregressive integrated moving average, Long short-term memory (LSTM) and Dense-based autoencoders, as well as Generative adversarial networks (GAN) models, are used to detect both point and collective anomalies. Towards the goal of preserving the privacy of industries' information, the smart contracts employ techniques to ensure that only anonymized pointers to the actual data are stored on the ledger while sensitive information remains off-chain. In the same spirit, blockchain technology guarantees the security of the data storage through strong cryptography as well as the integrity of the data through the decentralization of the network and the execution of the smart contracts by the majority of the blockchain network actors. The blockchain component of the Data Traceability Software is based on the Hyperledger Fabric framework, which lays the ground for the deployment of smart contracts and APIs to expose the functionality to the end-users. The results of this work demonstrate that such a system can increase the quality of the end-products and the trustworthiness of the monitoring process in the smart manufacturing domain. The proposed AI-enabled data traceability software can be employed by industries to accurately trace and verify records about quality through the entire production chain and take advantage of the multitude of monitoring records in their databases.

Keywords: blockchain, data quality, industry4.0, product quality

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Authors: Clifford De Raffaele, Luana Bugeja, Serengul Smith

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The adaptation of social networking sites within higher education has garnered significant interest in the recent years with numerous researches considering it as a possible shift from the traditional classroom based learning paradigm. Notwithstanding this increase in research and conducted studies however, the adaption of SNS based modules have failed to proliferate within Universities. This paper, commences its contribution by analyzing the various models and theories proposed in literature and amalgamates together various effective aspects for the inclusion of social technology within e-Learning. A three phased framework is further proposed which details the necessary considerations for the successful adaptation of SNS in enhancing the students learning experience. This proposal outlines the theoretical foundations which will be analyzed in practical implementation across international university campuses.

Keywords: eLearning, higher education, social network sites, student learning

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Authors: H. El-Kamchouchi, Heba Gaber, Fatma Ahmed, Dalia H. El-Kamchouchi

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Fault tolerance and data security are two important issues in modern communication systems. During the transmission of data between the sender and receiver, errors may occur frequently. Therefore, the sender must re-transmit the data to the receiver in order to correct these errors, which makes the system very feeble. To improve the scalability of the scheme, we present a proxy signature scheme with fault tolerance over an efficient and secure authenticated key agreement protocol based on the improved RSA system. Authenticated key agreement protocols have an important role in building a secure communications network between the two parties.

Keywords: fault tolerance, improved RSA, key agreement, proxy signature

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Authors: Federica Verna, Alessandra Pautasso, Maria Caramelli, Cristiana Maurella, Walter Mignone, Cristina Casalone

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Mosquito-Borne Diseases (MBDs) are dangerously increasing in prevalence, geographical distribution and severity, representing an emerging threat for both humans and animals. Interaction between multiple disciplines is needed for an effective early warning, surveillance and control of MBDs, according to the One Health concept. This work reports the integrated surveillance system enforced by IZSPLV in Piedmont, Liguria and Valle d’Aosta regions (Northwestern Italy) in order to control MDBs spread. Veterinary services and local human health authority are involved in an information network, to connect the surveillance of human clinical cases with entomological surveillance and veterinary monitoring in order to implement control measures in case of outbreak. A systematic entomological surveillance is carried out during the vector season using mosquitoes traps located in sites selected according to risk factors. Collected mosquitoes are counted, identified to species level by morphological standard classification keys and pooled by collection site, date and species with a maximum of 100 individuals. Pools are analyzed, after RNA extraction, by Real Time RT-PCR distinctive for West Nile Virus (WNV) Lineage 1 and Lineage 2, Real Time RT-PCR USUTU virus (USUV) and a traditional flavivirus End-point RT-PCR. Positive pools are sequenced and the related sequences employed to perform a basic local alignment search tool (BLAST) in the GenBank library. Positive samples are sent to the National Reference Centre for Animal Exotic Diseases (CESME, Teramo) for confirmation. With particular reference to WNV, after the confirmation, as provided by national legislation, control measures involving both local veterinary and human health services are activated: equine sera are randomly sampled within a 4 km radius from the positive collection sites and tested with ELISA kit and WNV NAT screening of blood donors is introduced. This surveillance network allowed to detect since 2011 USUV circulation in this area of Italy. WNV was detected in Piedmont and Liguria for the first time in 2014 in mosquitoes. During the 2015 vector season, we observed the expansion of its activity in Piedmont. The virus was detected in almost all Provinces both in mosquitoes (6 pools) and animals (19 equine sera, 4 birds). No blood bag tested resulted infected. The first neuroinvasive human case occurred too. Competent authorities should be aware of a potentially increased risk of MBDs activity during the 2016 vector season. This work shows that this surveillance network allowed to early detect the presence of MBDs in humans and animals, and provided useful information to public authorities, in order to apply control measures. Finally, an additional value of our diagnostic protocol is the ability to detect all viruses belonging to the Flaviviridae family, considering the emergence caused by other Flaviviruses in humans such as the recent Zika virus infection in South America. Italy has climatic and environmental features conducive to Zika virus transmission, the competent vector and many travellers from Brazil reported every year.

Keywords: integrated surveillance, mosquito borne disease, West Nile virus, Zika virus

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Authors: M. Hemnath, S. Kannan, R. Kiran, K. Thanigaivelu

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This paper is based on exploring the possible opportunities and applications using Power Line Communication (PLC) for security and surveillance operations. Various research works are done for introducing PLC into onboard vehicle communication and networking (CAN, LIN etc.) and various international standards have been developed. Wireless power transfer (WPT) is also an emerging technology which is studied and tested for recharging purposes. In this work we present a system which embeds the detection and the response into one which eliminates the need for dedicated network for data transmission. Also we check the feasibility for integrating wireless power transfer system into this proposed security system for transmission of power to detection unit wirelessly from the response unit.

Keywords: power line communication, wireless power transfer, surveillance

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Authors: Rade M. Ciric, Sasa Mandic

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Students of Higher Education Technical School of Professional Studies, in Novi Sad follow the subject Maintenance of electric power equipment at the Electrotechnical Department. This paper presents educational plan and program of the subject Maintenance of electric power equipment. The course deals with the problems of preventive and investing maintenance of transformer stations (TS), performing and maintenance of grounding of TS and pillars, as well as tracing and detection the location of the cables failure. There is a special elaborated subject concerning the safe work conditions for the electrician during network maintenance, as well as the basics of making and keeping technical documentation of the equipment.

Keywords: educational plan and program, electric power equipment, maintenance, technical documentation, safe work

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Authors: Sven Tackenberg, Sönke Duckwitz, Andreas Petz, Christopher M. Schlick

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This paper introduces an extension to the well-established Resource-Constrained Project Scheduling Problem (RCPSP) to apply it to complex maintenance problems. The problem is to assign technicians to a team which has to process several tasks with multi-level skill requirements during a work shift. Here, several alternative activities for a task allow both, the temporal shift of activities or the reallocation of technicians and tools. As a result, switches from one valid work process variant to another can be considered and may be selected by the developed evolutionary algorithm based on the present skill level of technicians or the available tools. An additional complication of the observed scheduling problem is that the locations of the construction sites are only temporarily accessible during a day. Due to intensive rail traffic, the available time slots for maintenance and repair works are extremely short and are often distributed throughout the day. To identify efficient working periods, a first concept of a Bayesian network is introduced and is integrated into the extended RCPSP with pre-emptive and non-pre-emptive tasks. Thereby, the Bayesian network is used to calculate the probability of a maintenance task to be processed during a specific period of the shift. Focusing on the domain of maintenance of the railway infrastructure in metropolitan areas as the most unproductive implementation process at construction site, the paper illustrates how the extended RCPSP can be applied for maintenance planning support. A multi-criteria evolutionary algorithm with a problem representation is introduced which is capable of revising technician-task allocations, whereas the duration of the task may be stochastic. The approach uses a novel activity list representation to ensure easily describable and modifiable elements which can be converted into detailed shift schedules. Thereby, the main objective is to develop a shift plan which maximizes the utilization of each technician due to a minimization of the waiting times caused by rail traffic. The results of the already implemented core algorithm illustrate a fast convergence towards an optimal team composition for a shift, an efficient sequence of tasks and a high probability of the subsequent implementation due to the stochastic durations of the tasks. In the paper, the algorithm for the extended RCPSP is analyzed in experimental evaluation using real-world example problems with various size, resource complexity, tightness and so forth.

Keywords: maintenance management, scheduling, resource constrained project scheduling problem, genetic algorithms

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Authors: Neha Asthana, Vishal Krishna Prasad

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Reverse logistics and green supply chain form an interconnected and interwoven network of parameters that contribute to enhancement and incremental exchange in the triple bottom line in the consistently changing and fragmenting markets of the globalizing markets of today. Reverse logistics not only contributes to completing the supply chain in a comprehensive and synchronized manner but also contributes to a significant degree in optimizing green supply chains through procedures such as recycling, refurbishing etc. contributing to waste reduction. Carbon trading, owing to its limitations in the global context and being in a nascent stage seeks plethora of research to determine its full application in synergy with reverse logistics and green supply chain.

Keywords: reverse logistics, carbon trading, carbon emissions, green supply chain

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Authors: Yazhou Zhou, Yong Huang, Guoqin Ge

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In the process of human social development, the coupling and coordinated development among the ecological environment(E), production(P), and living functions(L) is of great significance for sustainable development. This study uses an improved coupling coordination degree model (CCDM) to discover the coordination conflict between E and human settlement environment. The main work of this study is as follows: (1) It is found that in the process of urbanization development of Ya 'an city from 2014 to 2018, the degree of coupling (DOC) value between E, P, and L is high, but the coupling coordination degree (CCD) of the three is low, especially the DOC value of E and the other two has the biggest decline. (2) A more objective weight value is obtained, which can avoid the analysis error caused by subjective judgment weight value.

Keywords: ecological environment, coupling coordination degree, neural network, sustainable development

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Authors: G. Melo, J. Felix, S. Maciel, C. Fernandes, W. Rodrigues

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In Brazilian public policy, the Centres of Reference for Social Assistance (CRAS in Portuguese) are part of the Unified Social Assistance System (SUAS in Portuguese). SUAS is responsible for addressing spontaneous or currently active cases that are brought forth from other services in the social assistance network. The following case was reviewed by CRAS’s team in Recife, Brazil, after a complaint of child abuse was filed against the mother of a 7-year-old girl by the girl’s aunt. The girl is the daughter of an incestuous relationship between her mother and her older brother. The complaint was registered by service staff and five interventions were subsequently carried out on behalf of the child. These interventions provided a secure place for dialogue with both the child and her family and allowed for an investigation of the abuse to proceed. They took place in the child’s school as well as her aunt’s residence. At school, the child (with her classmates) watched a video and listened to a song about the prevention of child abuse. This was followed up with a second intervention to determine any signs of Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD), by having the child play with the mobile app ‘My Angela’. Books on the themes of family and fear were also read to the child on different occasions at her school – after every intervention she was asked to draw something related to fear and her concept of a family. After the interventions and discussing the case as a team, we reached several conclusions: 1) The child did not appear to show any symptoms of PTSD; 2) She normally fantasized about her future and life story; 3) She did not allow herself to be touched by strangers with whom she lacks a close relationship (such as classmates or her teacher); 4) Through her drawings, she reproduced the conversations she had had with the staff; 5) She habitually covered her drawings when asked questions about the abuse. In this particular clinical case, we want to highlight that the role of the Psychologist’s intervention at CRAS is to attempt to resolve the issue promptly (and not to develop a prolonged clinical study based on traditional methods), by making use of the available tools from the social assistance network, and by making referrals to the relevant authorities, such as the Public Ministry, so that final protective actions can be taken and enforced. In this case, the Guardian Council of the Brazilian Public Ministry was asked to transfer the custody of the child to her uncle. The mother of the child was sent to a CAPS (Centre for Psychosocial Care), having been diagnosed with psychopathology. The child would then participate in NGO programs that allow for a gradual reduction of social exposure to her mother before being transferred to her uncle’s custody in Sao Paulo.

Keywords: child abuse, intervention, social psychology, violence

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Authors: Yu Wang

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Nowadays, Internet enables its users to share the information online and to interact with others. Facing with numerous information, these Internet users are confused and begin to rely on the opinion leaders’ recommendations. The online opinion leaders are the individuals who have professional knowledge, who utilize the online channels to spread word-of-mouth information and who can affect the attitudes or even the behavior of their followers to some degree. Because utilizing the online opinion leaders is seen as an important approach to affect the potential consumers, how to identify them has become one of the hottest topics in the related field. Hence, in this article, the concepts and characteristics are introduced, and the researches related to identifying opinion leaders are collected and divided into three categories. Finally, the implications for future studies are provided.

Keywords: online opinion leaders, user attributes analysis, text mining analysis, network structure analysis

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Authors: A. Youseef

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One of the most aims of IEEE 802.16 (WiMAX) is to present high-speed wireless access to cover wide range coverage. The base station (BS) and the subscriber station (SS) are the main parts of WiMAX. WiMAX uses either Point-to-Multipoint (PMP) or mesh topologies. In the PMP mode, the SSs connect to the BS to gain access to the network. However, in the mesh mode, the SSs connect to each other to gain access to the BS. The main components of QoS management in the 802.16 standard are the admission control, buffer management, and packet scheduling. There are several researches proposed to create an efficient packet scheduling schemes. Therefore, we use QualNet 5.0.2 to study the performance of different scheduling schemes, such as WFQ, SCFQ, RR, and SP when the numbers of SSs increase. We find that when the number of SSs increases, the average jitter and average end-to-end delay is increased and the throughput is reduced.

Keywords: WiMAX, scheduling scheme, QoS, QualNet

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Authors: Mom Bishwakarma

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This research traces out how the Dalit in Nepal evolved from the early 1950s to the current day, from invoking Dalit against caste discrimination through to the asserting proportional representation in state structures. The research focused most closely on the formation of Dalit association and resistance, as well as on the different struggles throughout this period. It then discusses the expansion of Dalit movement in NGOs, its internationalization and responses. The research sees that Dalit movement has been influenced by its network with the national and international civil rights movement particularly Dalit movement in India and argues that Dalit movement in Nepal have in many ways, challenged the orthodox based caste stratification for Dalit equality and justice. It can be seen that at the same time as Dalit participation was increasing, divisions by caste line also emerged. Rather reshaping the power structures, Dalit movement encircled into division and contentious politics.

Keywords: Dalit, equality, justice, movements, Nepal

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Authors: Majid Rezayi, Sh. Shahaboddin, HNM E. Mahmud, A. Yadollah, A. Saeid, A. Yatimah

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In this study, the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) was applied to obtain the membrane composition model affecting the potential response of our reported polymeric PVC sensor for determining the titanium (III) ions. The performance statistics of the artificial neural network (ANN) and linear regression models for potential slope prediction of membrane composition of titanium (III) ion selective electrode were compared with ANFIS technique. The results show that the ANFIS model can be used as a practical tool for obtaining the Nerntian slope of the proposed sensor in this study.

Keywords: adaptive neuro fuzzy inference, PVC sensor, titanium (III) ions, Nerntian slope

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Authors: Firas Gerges, Frank Y. Shih

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Malignant melanoma, known simply as melanoma, is a type of skin cancer that appears as a mole on the skin. It is critical to detect this cancer at an early stage because it can spread across the body and may lead to the patient's death. When detected early, melanoma is curable. In this paper, we propose a deep learning model (convolutional neural networks) in order to automatically classify skin lesion images as malignant or benign. Images underwent certain pre-processing steps to diminish the effect of the normal skin region on the model. The result of the proposed model showed a significant improvement over previous work, achieving an accuracy of 97%.

Keywords: deep learning, skin cancer, image processing, melanoma

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Authors: O. Arikan, C. Kocatepe, G. Ucar, Y. Hacialiefendioglu

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In this paper, influence of harmonics on medium voltage distribution system of Bogazici Electricity Distribution Inc. (BEDAS) which takes place at Istanbul/Turkey is investigated. A ring network consisting of residential loads is taken into account for this study. Real system parameters and measurement results are used for simulations. Also, probable working conditions of the system are analyzed for %50, %75 and %100 loading of transformers with similar harmonic contents. Results of the study are exhibited the influence of nonlinear loads on %THDV, P.F. and technical losses of the medium voltage distribution system.

Keywords: distribution system, harmonic, technical losses, power factor, total harmonic distortion, residential load, medium voltage

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Authors: Seyed Sobhan Alvani, Mohammad Gohari

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By developing cities and increasing the population, traffic congestion has become a vital problem. Due to this crisis, urban designers try to present solutions to decrease this difficulty. On the other hand, predicting the model with perfect accuracy is essential for solution-providing. The current study presents a model based on artificial intelligence which can predict traffic index based on city population, growth rate, and area. The accuracy of the model was evaluated, which is acceptable and it is around 90%. Thus, urban designers and planners can employ it for predicting traffic index in the future to provide strategies.

Keywords: traffic index, population growth rate, cities wideness, artificial neural network

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Authors: Farbod Rohani, Elyar Ghafoori, Matin Saeedkondori

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Impulse noise is electromagnetic emission which generated by many house hold appliances that are attached to the electrical network. The main difficulty of impulsive noise (IN) elimination process from communication channels is to distinguish it from the transmitted signal and more importantly choosing the proper threshold bandwidth in order to eliminate the signal. Because of wide band property of impulsive noise, we present a novel method for setting the detection threshold, by taking advantage of the fact that impulsive noise bandwidth is usually wider than that of typical communication channels and specifically OFDM channel. After IN detection procedure, we apply simple windowing mechanisms to eliminate them from the communication channel.

Keywords: impulsive noise, OFDM channel, threshold detecting, windowing mechanisms

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Authors: Mohammad Nadeem, Haider Banka, R. Venugopal

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Granulation or agglomeration is a size enlargement process to transform the fine particulates into larger aggregates since the fine size of available materials and minerals poses difficulty in their utilization. Though a long list of methods is available in the literature for the modeling of granulation process to facilitate the in-depth understanding and interpretation of the system, there is still scope of improvements using novel tools and techniques. Intelligent techniques, such as artificial neural network, fuzzy logic, self-organizing map, support vector machine and others, have emerged as compelling alternatives for dealing with imprecision and complex non-linearity of the systems. The present study tries to review the applications of intelligent techniques in the modeling of size enlargement process for fine materials.

Keywords: fine material, granulation, intelligent technique, modelling

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Authors: Pongsawee Supanonth

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This research is the study of Spectrum Management and the increase in efficiency of Spectrum Utilization. It also proves that Cognitive Radio is a newer technology that will change the face of e-communications network today. This study used qualitative research methods by using in-depth interviews to collect data from a sample specific to those who work in Radio channel from 6 key informant and literature review from the related documents in online database. The result is the technique of Dynamic Spectrum Allocation that is the most suitable for Thailand. We conduct in-depth research for future purposes. Moreover, we can also develop a model that can be used in regulating and managing spectrum that is most suitable for Thailand. And also develop an important tool which can be of importance to allocation of spectrum as a natural resource appropriately. It will also guarantee quality and high benefit in a substantial way.

Keywords: cognitive radio, management of radio spectrum, spectrum management, spectrum scarcity

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Authors: Jonghoon Kim, Gilwon Yoon

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A wrist-band type biosignal measurement system and its data transfer through human body communication (HBC) were investigated. An HBC method based on pulses of ultra-wide band instead of using frequency or amplitude modulations was studied and implemented since the system became very compact and it was more suited for personal or mobile health monitoring. Our system measured photo-plethysmogram (PPG) and measured PPG signals were transmitted through a finger to a monitoring PC system. The device was compact and low-power consuming. HBC communication has very strong security measures since it does not use wireless network. Furthermore, biosignal monitoring system becomes handy because it does not need to have wire connections.

Keywords: biosignal, human body communication, mobile health, PPG, ultrawide band

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Authors: Amit Prakash Singh, Shyamli Singh, Chavi Srivastav

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This paper presents the idea of Internet of Thing (IoT) for the infrastructure of smart cities. Internet of Thing has been visualized as a communication prototype that incorporates myriad of digital services. The various component of the smart cities shall be implemented using microprocessor, microcontroller, sensors for network communication and protocols. IoT enabled systems have been devised to support the smart city vision, of which aim is to exploit the currently available precocious communication technologies to support the value-added services for function of the city. Due to volume, variety, and velocity of data, it requires analysis using Big Data concept. This paper presented the various techniques used to analyze big data using machine learning.

Keywords: IoT, smart city, embedded systems, sustainable environment

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Authors: Sonal Purohit, Animesh Dubey

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Corporate governance deals with the entire network of formal and informal relationship with the management of the company and company’s stakeholders including employees, customers, creditors, local communities, and society in general. The recent financial crisis was truly a global crisis in its nature and effects. The Indian financial markets were not immune to this global financial crisis. It is believed that corporate governance also had a major role to play in staggering the effect of this crisis. The objective of this paper is to examine the failure of prevailing corporate governance practice in India during financial crisis. Lack of appropriate implementation of the corporate government norms was a reason behind the phenomenon of money being pulled-out by FIIs, which constitute major investors and influencers of the Indian financial market.

Keywords: corporate governance, FII, financial market, financial crisis

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Authors: Farnaz Farhangi

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Many people in New Zealand believe that the access to water is inexhaustible, and it comes from a history of virtually unrestricted access to it. For the region like Hamilton which is one of New Zealand’s fastest growing cities, it is crucial for policy makers to know about the future water consumption and implementation of rules and regulation such as universal water metering. Hamilton residents use water freely and they do not have any idea about how much water they use. Hence, one of proposed objectives of this research is focusing on forecasting water consumption using different methods. Residential water consumption time series exhibits seasonal and trend variations. Seasonality is the pattern caused by repeating events such as weather conditions in summer and winter, public holidays, etc. The problem with this seasonal fluctuation is that, it dominates other time series components and makes difficulties in determining other variations (such as educational campaign’s effect, regulation, etc.) in time series. Apart from seasonality, a stochastic trend is also combined with seasonality and makes different effects on results of forecasting. According to the forecasting literature, preprocessing (de-trending and de-seasonalization) is essential to have more performed forecasting results, while some other researchers mention that seasonally non-adjusted data should be used. Hence, I answer the question that is pre-processing essential? A wide range of forecasting methods exists with different pros and cons. In this research, I apply double seasonal ARIMA and Artificial Neural Network (ANN), considering diverse elements such as seasonality and calendar effects (public and school holidays) and combine their results to find the best predicted values. My hypothesis is the examination the results of combined method (hybrid model) and individual methods and comparing the accuracy and robustness. In order to use ARIMA, the data should be stationary. Also, ANN has successful forecasting applications in terms of forecasting seasonal and trend time series. Using a hybrid model is a way to improve the accuracy of the methods. Due to the fact that water demand is dominated by different seasonality, in order to find their sensitivity to weather conditions or calendar effects or other seasonal patterns, I combine different methods. The advantage of this combination is reduction of errors by averaging of each individual model. It is also useful when we are not sure about the accuracy of each forecasting model and it can ease the problem of model selection. Using daily residential water consumption data from January 2000 to July 2015 in Hamilton, I indicate how prediction by different methods varies. ANN has more accurate forecasting results than other method and preprocessing is essential when we use seasonal time series. Using hybrid model reduces forecasting average errors and increases the performance.

Keywords: artificial neural network (ANN), double seasonal ARIMA, forecasting, hybrid model

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Authors: Johannes J. Schneider, Mathias S. Weyland, Peter Eggenberger Hotz, William D. Jamieson, Oliver Castell, Alessia Faggian, Rudolf M. Füchslin

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Agglomerations of polydisperse systems of spherical particles are created in computer simulations using a simplified stochastic-hydrodynamic model: Particles sink to the bottom of the cylinder, taking into account gravity reduced by the buoyant force, the Stokes friction force, the added mass effect, and random velocity changes. Two types of particles are considered, with one of them being able to create connections to neighboring particles of the same type, thus forming a network within the agglomeration at the bottom of a cylinder. Decreasing the fraction of these particles, a percolation transition occurs. The critical regime is determined by investigating the maximum cluster size and the percolation susceptibility.

Keywords: binary system, maximum cluster size, percolation, polydisperse

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Authors: Ahmed Elsayed, Andrew Shea, Nicolas Kelly, John Allison

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In northern European climates, domestic space heating and hot water represents a significant proportion of total primary total primary energy use and meeting these demands from a national electricity grid network supplied by renewable energy sources provides an opportunity for a significant reduction in EU CO₂ emissions. However, in order to adapt to the intermittent nature of renewable energy generation and to avoid co-incident peak electricity usage from consumers that may exceed current capacity, the demand for heat must be decoupled from its generation. Storage of heat within the fabric of dwellings for use some hours, or days, later provides a route to complete decoupling of demand from supply and facilitates the greatly increased use of renewable energy generation into a local or national electricity network. The integration of thermal energy storage into the building fabric for retrieval at a later time requires much evaluation of the many competing thermal, physical, and practical considerations such as the profile and magnitude of heat demand, the duration of storage, charging and discharging rate, storage media, space allocation, etc. In this paper, the authors report investigations of thermal storage in building fabric using concrete material and present an evaluation of several factors that impact upon performance including heating pipe layout, heating fluid flow velocity, storage geometry, thermo-physical material properties, and also present an investigation of alternative storage materials and alternative heat transfer fluids. Reducing the heating pipe spacing from 200 mm to 100 mm enhances the stored energy by 25% and high-performance Vacuum Insulation results in heat loss flux of less than 3 W/m², compared to 22 W/m² for the more conventional EPS insulation. Dense concrete achieved the greatest storage capacity, relative to medium and light-weight alternatives, although a material thickness of 100 mm required more than 5 hours to charge fully. Layers of 25 mm and 50 mm thickness can be charged in 2 hours, or less, facilitating a fast response that could, aggregated across multiple dwellings, provide significant and valuable reduction in demand from grid-generated electricity in expected periods of high demand and potentially eliminate the need for additional new generating capacity from conventional sources such as gas, coal, or nuclear.

Keywords: fabric integrated thermal storage, FITS, demand side management, energy storage, load shifting, renewable energy integration

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Authors: Lin Zhang

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Neighborhood redevelopment is vital to improve residents’ living environment, and there has been a national neighborhood micro-redevelopment initiative in China since 2020, which is largely different from the previous large-scale demolition and reconstruction projects. Yet, few studies systematically examine the new interactions of multiple actors in this initiative. China’s neighborhood (micro-) redevelopment is a kind of governance network, and the complexity perspective could reflect the dynamic nature of multiple actors and their relationships in governance networks. In order to better understand the fundamental shifts of governance networks in China’s neighborhood micro-redevelopment, this paper adopted a theoretical framework of complexity in governance networks and analyzed the new governance networks of neighborhood micro-redevelopment projects in Haikou accordingly.

Keywords: neighborhood redevelopment, governance, networks, Haikou

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Authors: Jyoti Sharma

Abstract:

India and Pakistan are two strategically important neighboring countries in Asia-Pacific region. Since independence of more than six decades, both, India and Pakistan have transverse different paths, India as a Sovereign, Democratic, Republic Country and Pakistan as Islamic Republic of Pakistan. The advent of democracy in India and Islamic republic in Pakistan resulted in new hopes, aspirations and demands on education. During the six decades after Independence, teacher education in both countries has come a long way from its initial bleak stature to gain an identity as a complex network of institutions and programs. The present paper takes a close look into the paradigm shift in teacher education programs in India and Pakistan and how much the shift is influenced by constitutional frameworks of each country.

Keywords: pre-service teachers, teacher education reforms, India, Pakistan

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Authors: Maik Kschischo, Dominik Kahl, Philipp Wendland, Andreas Weber

Abstract:

Understanding and modelling of real-world complex dynamic systems in biology, engineering and other fields is often made difficult by incomplete knowledge about the interactions between systems states and by unknown disturbances to the system. In fact, most real-world dynamic networks are open systems receiving unknown inputs from their environment. To understand a system and to estimate the state dynamics, these inputs need to be reconstructed from output measurements. Reconstructing the input of a dynamic system from its measured outputs is an ill-posed problem if only a limited number of states is directly measurable. A first requirement for solving this problem is the invertibility of the input-output map. In our work, we exploit the fact that invertibility of a dynamic system is a structural property, which depends only on the network topology. Therefore, it is possible to check for invertibility using a structural invertibility algorithm which counts the number of node disjoint paths linking inputs and outputs. The algorithm is efficient enough, even for large networks up to a million nodes. To understand structural features influencing the invertibility of a complex dynamic network, we analyze synthetic and real networks using the structural invertibility algorithm. We find that invertibility largely depends on the degree distribution and that dense random networks are easier to invert than sparse inhomogeneous networks. We show that real networks are often very difficult to invert unless the sensor nodes are carefully chosen. To overcome this problem, we present a sensor node placement algorithm to achieve invertibility with a minimum set of measured states. This greedy algorithm is very fast and also guaranteed to find an optimal sensor node-set if it exists. Our results provide a practical approach to experimental design for open, dynamic systems. Since invertibility is a necessary condition for unknown input observers and data assimilation filters to work, it can be used as a preprocessing step to check, whether these input reconstruction algorithms can be successful. If not, we can suggest additional measurements providing sufficient information for input reconstruction. Invertibility is also important for systems design and model building. Dynamic models are always incomplete, and synthetic systems act in an environment, where they receive inputs or even attack signals from their exterior. Being able to monitor these inputs is an important design requirement, which can be achieved by our algorithms for invertibility analysis and sensor node placement.

Keywords: data-driven dynamic systems, inversion of dynamic systems, observability, experimental design, sensor node placement

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