Search results for: adaptive estimation

Authors: Jakob Krause

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Past Financial Crisis has shown that contemporary risk management models provide an unjustified sense of security and fail miserably in situations in which they are needed the most. In this paper, we start from the assumption that risk is a notion that changes over time and therefore past data points only have limited explanatory power for the current situation. Our objective is to derive the optimal amount of representative information by optimizing between the two adverse forces of estimator convergence, incentivizing us to use as much data as possible, and the aforementioned non-representativeness doing the opposite. In this endeavor, the cornerstone assumption of having access to identically distributed random variables is weakened and substituted by the assumption that the law of the data generating process changes over time. Hence, in this paper, we give a quantitative theory on how to perform statistical analysis in non-ergodic systems. As an application, we discuss the impact of a paragraph in the last iteration of proposals by the Basel Committee on Banking Regulation. We start from the premise that the severity of assumptions should correspond to the robustness of the system they describe. Hence, in the formal description of physical systems, the level of assumptions can be much higher. It follows that every concept that is carried over from the natural sciences to economics must be checked for its plausibility in the new surroundings. Most of the probability theory has been developed for the analysis of physical systems and is based on the independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) assumption. In Economics both parts of the i.i.d. assumption are inappropriate. However, only dependence has, so far, been weakened to a sufficient degree. In this paper, an appropriate class of non-stationary processes is used, and their law is tied to a formal object measuring representativeness. Subsequently, that data set is identified that on average minimizes the estimation error stemming from both, insufficient and non-representative, data. Applications are far reaching in a variety of fields. In the paper itself, we apply the results in order to analyze a paragraph in the Basel 3 framework on banking regulation with severe implications on financial stability. Beyond the realm of finance, other potential applications include the reproducibility crisis in the social sciences (but not in the natural sciences) and modeling limited understanding and learning behavior in economics.

Keywords: banking regulation, non-ergodicity, risk management, semimartingale modeling

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Authors: Fekadu Gadissa, Kassahun Tesfaye, Kifle Dagne, Mulatu Geleta

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‘Ethiopian dinich’ also called ‘Ethiopian potato’ is one of the economically important ‘orphan’ edible tuber crops indigenous to Ethiopia. We evaluated the morphological and agronomic traits performances of 174 samples from Ethiopia at multiple locations using 12 qualitative and 16 quantitative traits, recorded at the correct growth stages. We observed several morphotypes and phenotypic variations for qualitative traits along with a wide range of mean performance values for all quantitative traits. Analysis of variance for each quantitative trait showed a highly significant (p<0.001) variation among the collections with eventually non-significant variation for environment-traits interaction for all but flower length. A comparatively high phenotypic and genotypic coefficient of variation was observed for plant height, days to flower initiation, days to 50% flowering and tuber number per hill. Moreover, the variability and coefficients of variation due to genotype-environment interaction was nearly zero for all the traits except flower length. High genotypic coefficients of variation coupled with a high estimate of broad sense heritability and high genetic advance as a percent of collection mean were obtained for tuber weight per hill, number of primary branches per plant, tuber number per hill and number of plants per hill. Association of tuber yield per hectare of land showed a large magnitude of positive phenotypic and genotypic correlation with those traits. Principal components analysis revealed 76% of the total variation for the first six principal axes with high factor loadings again from tuber number per hill, number of primary branches per plant and tuber weight. The collections were grouped into four clusters with the weak region (zone) of origin based pattern. In general, there is high genetic-based variability for ‘Ethiopian dinich’ improvement and conservation. DNA based markers are recommended for further genetic diversity estimation for use in breeding and conservation.

Keywords: agro-morphological traits, Ethiopian dinich, genetic diversity, variance components

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Authors: German Osma, Gabriel Ordonez

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The production of metal-rubber spares for vehicles is a sequential process that consists in the transformation of raw material through cutting activities and chemical and thermal treatments, which demand electricity and fossil fuels. The energy efficiency analysis for these cases is mostly focused on studying of each machine or production step, but is not common to study of the quality of the production process achieves from aggregated value viewpoint, which can be used as a quality measurement for determining of impact on the environment. In this paper, the theory of exergetic cost is used for determining of aggregated exergy to three metal-rubber spares, from an exergy analysis and thermoeconomic analysis. The manufacturing processing of these spares is based into batch production technique, and therefore is proposed the use of this theory for discontinuous flows from of single models of workstations; subsequently, the complete exergy model of each product is built using flowcharts. These models are a representation of exergy flows between components into the machines according to electrical, mechanical and/or thermal expressions; they determine the demanded exergy to produce the effective transformation in raw materials (aggregated exergy value), the exergy losses caused by equipment and irreversibilities. The energy resources of manufacturing process are electricity and natural gas. The workstations considered are lathes, punching presses, cutters, zinc machine, chemical treatment tanks, hydraulic vulcanizing presses and rubber mixer. The thermoeconomic analysis was done by workstation and by spare; first of them describes the operation of the components of each machine and where the exergy losses are; while the second of them estimates the exergy-aggregated value for finished product and wasted feedstock. Results indicate that exergy efficiency of a mechanical workstation is between 10% and 60% while this value in the thermal workstations is less than 5%; also that each effective exergy-aggregated value is one-thirtieth of total exergy required for operation of manufacturing process, which amounts approximately to 2 MJ. These troubles are caused mainly by technical limitations of machines, oversizing of metal feedstock that demands more mechanical transformation work, and low thermal insulation of chemical treatment tanks and hydraulic vulcanizing presses. From established information, in this case, it is possible to appreciate the usefulness of theory of exergetic cost for analyzing of aggregated value in manufacturing processes.

Keywords: exergy-aggregated value, exergy efficiency, thermoeconomics, exergy modeling

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Authors: Hammad T. Janjuhah, Josep Sanjuan, Mohamed K. Salah

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Biological and chemical activities in carbonates are responsible for the complexity of the pore system. Primary porosity is generally of natural origin while secondary porosity is subject to chemical reactivity through diagenetic processes. To understand the integrated part of hydrocarbon exploration, it is necessary to understand the carbonate pore system. However, the current porosity classification scheme is limited to adequately predict the petrophysical properties of different reservoirs having various origins and depositional environments. Rock classification provides a descriptive method for explaining the lithofacies but makes no significant contribution to the application of porosity and permeability (poro-perm) correlation. The Central Luconia carbonate system (Malaysia) represents a good example of pore complexity (in terms of nature and origin) mainly related to diagenetic processes which have altered the original reservoir. For quantitative analysis, 32 high-resolution images of each thin section were taken using transmitted light microscopy. The quantification of grains, matrix, cement, and macroporosity (pore types) was achieved using a petrographic analysis of thin sections and FESEM images. The point counting technique was used to estimate the amount of macroporosity from thin section, which was then subtracted from the total porosity to derive the microporosity. The quantitative observation of thin sections revealed that the mouldic porosity (macroporosity) is the dominant porosity type present, whereas the microporosity seems to correspond to a sum of 40 to 50% of the total porosity. It has been proven that these Miocene carbonates contain a significant amount of microporosity, which significantly complicates the estimation and production of hydrocarbons. Neglecting its impact can increase uncertainty about estimating hydrocarbon reserves. Due to the diversity of geological parameters, the application of existing porosity classifications does not allow a better understanding of the poro-perm relationship. However, the classification can be improved by including the pore types and pore structures where they can be divided into macro- and microporosity. Such studies of microporosity identification/classification represent now a major concern in limestone reservoirs around the world.

Keywords: overview of porosity classification, reservoir characterization, microporosity, carbonate reservoir

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Authors: Sourabh Jain, Parul Madan

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Traffic noise pollution has become a challenging problem for all metro cities of India due to rapid urbanization, growing population and rising number of vehicles and transport development. In Delhi the prime source of noise pollution is vehicular traffic. In Delhi it is found that the ambient noise level (Leq) is exceeding the standard permissible value at all the locations. Noise barriers or enclosures are definitely useful in obtaining effective deduction of traffic noise disturbances in urbanized areas. US’s Federal Highway Administration Model (FHWA) and Calculation of Road Traffic Noise (CORTN) of UK are used to develop spread sheets for noise prediction. Spread sheets are also developed for evaluating effectiveness of existing boundary walls abutting houses in mitigating noise, redesigning them as noise barriers. Study was also carried out to examine the changes in noise level due to designed noise barrier by using both models FHWA and CORTN respectively. During the collection of various data it is found that receivers are located far away from road at Rithala and Moolchand sites and hence extra barrier height needed to meet prescribed limits was less as seen from calculations and most of the noise diminishes by propagation effect.On the basis of overall study and data analysis, it is concluded that FHWA and CORTN models under estimate noise levels. FHWA model predicted noise levels with an average percentage error of -7.33 and CORTN predicted with an average percentage error of -8.5. It was observed that at all sites noise levels at receivers were exceeding the standard limit of 55 dB. It was seen from calculations that existing walls are reducing noise levels. Average noise reduction due to walls at Rithala was 7.41 dB and at Panchsheel was 7.20 dB and lower amount of noise reduction was observed at Friend colony which was only 5.88. It was observed from analysis that Friends colony sites need much greater height of barrier. This was because of residential buildings abutting the road. At friends colony great amount of traffic was observed since it is national highway. At this site diminishing of noise due to propagation effect was very less.As FHWA and CORTN models were developed in excel programme, it eliminates laborious calculations of noise. There was no reflection correction in FHWA models as like in CORTN model.

Keywords: IFHWA, CORTN, Noise Sources, Noise Barriers

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Authors: Madhura Bapat, Uma Krishnan

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Exploring the redefinition of masculinity through the experiences of male Indian classical dancers, this qualitative research focuses on their perceived quality of life, psychosocial challenges, and coping strategies. This study aims to explore the mental health nuances of male Indian classical dancers through an in-depth understanding of their lived experiences with dance. The benefits and personal journeys of dancers, particularly in Indian classical forms, reveal insights into culture, gender, and societal expectations. Men in Indian classical dance frequently encounter stigma due to prevailing gender norms in the arts and society. Acknowledgment of these experiences is key to understanding issues of identity, mental wellness, and communal acceptance of male Indian classical dancers in the Indian dance scenario. This study follows an interpretive phenomenological approach to follow the lived experiences of male Indian classical dancers. Male Indian classical dancers were selected using criterion-based sampling. The participants are male, fluent in English and pursue Indian classical dance styles professionally, like Kathak, Bharatanatyam, Chhau, etc. Six participants were recruited for personal, semi-structured, in-depth interviews. A focus group discussion with four participants was conducted to explore the stigma surrounding their roles. The data were analyzed using interpretive phenomenological analysis (IPA), revealing superordinate themes of (1) identity fragmentation and negotiation in gendered social contexts; (2) gendered constraints and artistic expression; (3) psychosocial distress and mental health challenges; (4) coping mechanisms and resilience; and (5) stigmatization and social integration dynamics. Male Indian classical dancers grapple with identity formation, navigating a paradox of self-perception, artistic identity, and societal expectation. They reported experiencing emasculation, compromising artistic expression, and struggling with gender norms and gendered training constraints. They have faced name-calling, bullying, taunting, slandering, and discrimination. These experiences have led to psychological challenges and distress. However, the paradox continues as male dancers use adaptive coping strategies despite the adversities that intertwine self-perception, societal pressures, and their passion for dance. This research sheds light on the intersection of gender, mental health, and art. These findings provide a strong foundation for making changes in the dance community for acceptance of male dancers, policy making for better job opportunities for male dancers and mental health services to be provided to help them deal with distress. The study offers valuable insights into how male classical dancers navigate stigma and mental health challenges in gendered social contexts, contributing to a deeper understanding of identity formation in the arts.

Keywords: gendered experiences, Indian classical dance, male dancers, mental health, stigma

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Authors: Zahra Hamidi

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Promoting cycling, as an affordable environmentally friendly mode of transport to replace private car use has been central to sustainable transport policies. Cycling is faster than walking and combined with public transport has the potential to extend the opportunities that people can access. In other words, cycling, besides direct positive health impacts, can improve people mobility and ultimately their quality of life. Transport literature well supports the close relationship between mobility, quality of life, and, well being. At the same time inequity in the distribution of access and mobility has been associated with the key aspects of injustice and social exclusion. The pattern of social exclusion and inequality in access are also often related to population characteristics such as age, gender, income, health, and ethnic background. Therefore, while investing in transport infrastructure it is important to consider the equity of provided access for different population groups. This paper proposes a method to evaluate the equity of cycling in a city from Rawls egalitarian perspective. Since this perspective is concerned with the difference between individuals and social groups, this method combines accessibility measures and Theil index of inequality that allows capturing the inequalities ‘within’ and ‘between’ groups. The paper specifically focuses on two population characteristics as gender and ethnic background. Following Rawls equity principles, this paper measures accessibility by bikes to a selection of urban activities that can be linked to the concept of the social primary goods. Moreover, as growing number of cities around the world have launched bike-sharing systems (BSS) this paper incorporates both private and public bikes networks in the estimation of accessibility levels. Additionally, the typology of bike lanes (separated from or shared with roads), the presence of a bike sharing system in the network, as well as bike facilities (e.g. parking racks) have been included in the developed accessibility measures. Application of this proposed method to a real case study, the city of Malmö, Sweden, shows its effectiveness and efficiency. Although the accessibility levels were estimated only based on gender and ethnic background characteristics of the population, the author suggests that the analysis can be applied to other contexts and further developed using other properties, such as age, income, or health.

Keywords: accessibility, cycling, equity, gender

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Authors: Michelle Eliane Hernández-García, Angélica Lozano

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The traffic accidents study usually contemplates the relation between factors such as the type of vehicle, its operation, and the road infrastructure. Traffic accidents can be explained by different factors, which have a greater or lower relevance. Two zones are studied, a mixed industrial zone and the extended zone of it. The first zone has mainly residential (57%), and industrial (23%) land uses. Trucks are mainly on the roads where industries are located. Four sensors give information about traffic and speed on the main roads. The extended zone (which includes the first zone) has mainly residential (47%) and mixed residential (43%) land use, and just 3% of industrial use. The traffic mix is composed mainly of non-trucks. 39 traffic and speed sensors are located on main roads. The traffic mix in a mixed land use zone, could be related to traffic accidents. To understand this relation, it is required to identify the elements of the traffic mix which are linked to traffic accidents. Models that attempt to explain what factors are related to traffic accidents have faced multiple methodological problems for obtaining robust databases. Poisson regression models are used to explain the accidents. The objective of the Poisson analysis is to estimate a vector to provide an estimate of the natural logarithm of the mean number of accidents per period; this estimate is achieved by standard maximum likelihood procedures. For the estimation of the relation between traffic accidents and the traffic mix, the database is integrated of eight variables, with 17,520 observations and six vectors. In the model, the dependent variable is the occurrence or non-occurrence of accidents, and the vectors that seek to explain it, correspond to the vehicle classes: C1, C2, C3, C4, C5, and C6, respectively, standing for car, microbus, and van, bus, unitary trucks (2 to 6 axles), articulated trucks (3 to 6 axles) and bi-articulated trucks (5 to 9 axles); in addition, there is a vector for the average speed of the traffic mix. A Poisson model is applied, using a logarithmic link function and a Poisson family. For the first zone, the Poisson model shows a positive relation among traffic accidents and C6, average speed, C3, C2, and C1 (in a decreasing order). The analysis of the coefficient shows a high relation with bi-articulated truck and bus (C6 and the C3), indicating an important participation of freight trucks. For the expanded zone, the Poisson model shows a positive relation among traffic accidents and speed average, biarticulated truck (C6), and microbus and vans (C2). The coefficients obtained in both Poisson models shows a higher relation among freight trucks and traffic accidents in the first industrial zone than in the expanded zone.

Keywords: freight transport, industrial zone, traffic accidents, traffic mix, trucks

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Authors: Ani Demetrashvili

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As online learning continues to reshape the landscape of education, questions arise regarding its efficacy for diverse learning styles, particularly for visual learners. This abstract delves into the impact of online learning on visual learners, exploring how digital mediums influence their educational experience and how educational platforms can be optimized to cater to their needs. Visual learners comprise a significant portion of the student population, characterized by their preference for visual aids such as diagrams, charts, and videos to comprehend and retain information. Traditional classroom settings often struggle to accommodate these learners adequately, relying heavily on auditory and written forms of instruction. The advent of online learning presents both opportunities and challenges in addressing the needs of visual learners. Online learning platforms offer a plethora of multimedia resources, including interactive simulations, virtual labs, and video lectures, which align closely with the preferences of visual learners. These platforms have the potential to enhance engagement, comprehension, and retention by presenting information in visually stimulating formats. However, the effectiveness of online learning for visual learners hinges on various factors, including the design of learning materials, user interface, and instructional strategies. Research into the impact of online learning on visual learners encompasses a multidisciplinary approach, drawing from fields such as cognitive psychology, education, and human-computer interaction. Studies employ qualitative and quantitative methods to assess visual learners' preferences, cognitive processes, and learning outcomes in online environments. Surveys, interviews, and observational studies provide insights into learners' preferences for specific types of multimedia content and interactive features. Cognitive tasks, such as memory recall and concept mapping, shed light on the cognitive mechanisms underlying learning in digital settings. Eye-tracking studies offer valuable data on attentional patterns and information processing during online learning activities. The findings from research on the impact of online learning on visual learners have significant implications for educational practice and technology design. Educators and instructional designers can use insights from this research to create more engaging and effective learning materials for visual learners. Strategies such as incorporating visual cues, providing interactive activities, and scaffolding complex concepts with multimedia resources can enhance the learning experience for visual learners in online environments. Moreover, online learning platforms can leverage the findings to improve their user interface and features, making them more accessible and inclusive for visual learners. Customization options, adaptive learning algorithms, and personalized recommendations based on learners' preferences and performance can enhance the usability and effectiveness of online platforms for visual learners.

Keywords: online learning, visual learners, digital education, technology in learning

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Authors: Anne M. Denton, Rahul Gomes, David W. Franzen

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High-resolution elevation data are becoming increasingly available, but typical approaches for computing topographic features, like slope and curvature, still assume small sliding windows, for example, of size 3x3. That means that the digital elevation model (DEM) has to be resampled to the scale of the landform features that are of interest. Any higher resolution is lost in this resampling. When the topographic features are computed through regression that is performed at the resolution of the original data, the accuracy can be much higher, and the reported result can be adjusted to the length scale that is relevant locally. Slope and variance are calculated for overlapping windows, meaning that one regression result is computed per raster point. The number of window centers per area is the same for the output as for the original DEM. Slope and variance are computed by performing regression on the points in the surrounding window. Such an approach is computationally feasible because of the additive nature of regression parameters and variance. Any doubling of window size in each direction only takes a single pass over the data, corresponding to a logarithmic scaling of the resulting algorithm as a function of the window size. Slope and variance are stored for each aggregation step, allowing the reported slope to be selected to minimize variance. The approach thereby adjusts the effective window size to the landform features that are characteristic to the area within the DEM. Starting with a window size of 2x2, each iteration aggregates 2x2 non-overlapping windows from the previous iteration. Regression results are stored for each iteration, and the slope at minimal variance is reported in the final result. As such, the reported slope is adjusted to the length scale that is characteristic of the landform locally. The length scale itself and the variance at that length scale are also visualized to aid in interpreting the results for slope. The relevant length scale is taken to be half of the window size of the window over which the minimum variance was achieved. The resulting process was evaluated for 1-meter DEM data and for artificial data that was constructed to have defined length scales and added noise. A comparison with ESRI ArcMap was performed and showed the potential of the proposed algorithm. The resolution of the resulting output is much higher and the slope and aspect much less affected by noise. Additionally, the algorithm adjusts to the scale of interest within the region of the image. These benefits are gained without additional computational cost in comparison with resampling the DEM and computing the slope over 3x3 images in ESRI ArcMap for each resolution. In summary, the proposed approach extracts slope and aspect of DEMs at the lengths scales that are characteristic locally. The result is of higher resolution and less affected by noise than existing techniques.

Keywords: high resolution digital elevation models, multi-scale analysis, slope calculation, window-based regression

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Authors: Libor Zachoval, Daire O Broin, Oisin Cawley

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E-learning platforms, such as Blackboard have two major shortcomings: limited data capture as a result of the limitations of SCORM (Shareable Content Object Reference Model), and lack of incorporation of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and machine learning algorithms which could lead to better course adaptations. With the recent development of Experience Application Programming Interface (xAPI), a large amount of additional types of data can be captured and that opens a window of possibilities from which online education can benefit. In a corporate setting, where companies invest billions on the learning and development of their employees, some learner behaviours can be troublesome for they can hinder the knowledge development of a learner. Behaviours that hinder the knowledge development also raise ambiguity about learner’s knowledge mastery, specifically those related to gaming the system. Furthermore, a company receives little benefit from their investment if employees are passing courses without possessing the required knowledge and potential compliance risks may arise. Using xAPI and rules derived from a state-of-the-art review, we identified three learner behaviours, primarily related to guessing, in a corporate compliance course. The identified behaviours are: trying each option for a question, specifically for multiple-choice questions; selecting a single option for all the questions on the test; and continuously repeating tests upon failing as opposed to going over the learning material. These behaviours were detected on learners who repeated the test at least 4 times before passing the course. These findings suggest that gauging the mastery of a learner from multiple-choice questions test scores alone is a naive approach. Thus, next steps will consider the incorporation of additional data points, knowledge estimation models to model knowledge mastery of a learner more accurately, and analysis of the data for correlations between knowledge development and identified learner behaviours. Additional work could explore how learner behaviours could be utilised to make changes to a course. For example, course content may require modifications (certain sections of learning material may be shown to not be helpful to many learners to master the learning outcomes aimed at) or course design (such as the type and duration of feedback).

Keywords: artificial intelligence, corporate e-learning environment, knowledge maintenance, xAPI

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Authors: Emma R. Arakelova, Stepan G. Grigoryan, Flora G. Arsenyan, Nelli S. Babayan, Ruzanna M. Grigoryan, Natalia K. Sarkisyan

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Novel nanosize zinc oxide composites of doxorubicin obtained by deposition of 180 nm thick zinc oxide film on the drug surface using DC-magnetron sputtering of a zinc target in the form of gels (PEO+Dox+ZnO and Starch+NaCMC+Dox+ZnO) were studied for drug delivery applications. The cancer specificity was revealed both in in vitro and in vivo models. The cytotoxicity of the test compounds was analyzed against human cancer (HeLa) and normal (MRC5) cell lines using MTT colorimetric cell viability assay. IC50 values were determined and compared to reveal the cancer specificity of the test samples. The mechanistic study of the most active compound was investigated using Flow cytometry analyzing of the DNA content after PI (propidium iodide) staining. Data were analyzed with Tree Star FlowJo software using cell cycle analysis Dean-Jett-Fox module. The in vivo anticancer activity estimation experiments were carried out on mice with inoculated ascitic Ehrlich’s carcinoma at intraperitoneal introduction of doxorubicin and its zinc oxide compositions. It was shown that the nanosize zinc oxide film deposition on the drug surface leads to the selective anticancer activity of composites at the cellular level with the range of selectivity index (SI) from 4 (Starch+NaCMC+Dox+ZnO) to 200 (PEO(gel)+Dox+ZnO) which is higher than that of free Dox (SI = 56). The significant increase in vivo antitumor activity (by a factor of 2-2.5) and decrease of general toxicity of zinc oxide compositions of doxorubicin in the form of the above mentioned gels compared to free doxorubicin were shown on the model of inoculated Ehrlich's ascitic carcinoma. Mechanistic studies of anticancer activity revealed the cytostatic effect based on the high level of DNA biosynthesis inhibition at considerable low concentrations of zinc oxide compositions of doxorubicin. The results of studies in vitro and in vivo behavior of PEO+Dox+ZnO and Starch+NaCMC+Dox+ZnO composites confirm the high potential of the nanosize zinc oxide composites as a vector delivery system for future application in cancer chemotherapy.

Keywords: anticancer activity, cancer specificity, doxorubicin, zinc oxide

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Authors: Mariola Głowacka

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Aim: The aim of this study was to present the assessment of dyspnea and anxiety in seniors staying in the hospice in the context of the nurse's tasks. Materials and methods: The presented research was carried out at the "Hospicjum Płockie" Association of St. Urszula Ledóchowska in Płock, in a stationary ward, for adults. The research group consisted of 100 people, women, and men. In the study described in this paper, the method of diagnostic survey, the method of estimation and analysis of patient records were used, and the research tools were the numerical scale of the NRS assessment, the modified Borg scale to assess dyspnea, the Trait Anxiety scale to test the intensity of anxiety and the sociodemographic assessment of the respondent. Results: Among the patients, the greatest number were people without dyspnoea (38 people) and with average levels of dyspnoea (26 people). People with lung cancer had a higher level of breathlessness than people with other cancers. Half of the patients included in the study felt anxiety at a low level. On average, men had a higher level of anxiety than women. Conclusion: 1) Patients staying in the hospice require comprehensive nursing care due to the underlying disease, comorbidities, and a wide range of medications taken, which aggravate the feeling of dyspnea and anxiety. 2) The study showed that in patients staying in the hospice, the level of dyspnea was of varying severity. The greatest number of people were without dyspnea (38) and patients with a low level of dyspnea (34). There were 12 people experiencing an average level of dyspnea and a high level of dyspnea 15. 3) The main factor influencing the severity of dyspnea in patients was the location of cancer. There was no significant relationship between the intensity of dyspnea and the age, gender of the patient, and time from diagnosis. 4) The study showed that in patients staying in the hospice, the level of anxiety was of varying severity. Most people experience a low level of anxiety (51). There were 16 people with a high level of anxiety, while there were 33 people experiencing anxiety at an average level. 5) The patient's gender was the main factor influencing the increase in anxiety intensity. Men had higher levels of anxiety than women. There was no significant correlation between the intensity of anxiety and the age of the respondents, as well as the type of cancer and time since diagnosis. 6) The intensity of dyspnea depended on the type of cancer the subjects had. People with lung cancer had a higher level of breathlessness than those with breast cancer and bowel cancer. It was not found that the anxiety increased depending on the type of cancer and comorbidities of the examined person.

Keywords: cancer, shortness of breath, anxiety, senior, hospice

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Authors: Rosa S. Wong, Keith T. S. Tung, Frederick K. Ho, Winnie W. Y. Tso, King-wa Fu, Nirmala Rao, Patrick Ip

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As technology advances, exposures in early childhood are no longer confined to stimulations in the surrounding physical environments. Children nowadays are also subject to influences from the digital world. In particular, early access to game consoles can cause risks to child development, especially when the game is not developmentally appropriate for young children. Overstimulation is possible and could impair brain development. On the other hand, recreational parent-child activities, including outdoor activities and visits to museums, require child interaction with parents, which is beneficial for developing adaptive emotion regulation and social skills. Given the differences between these two types of exposures, this study investigated and compared the independent effects of early exposure to a game console and early play-based parent-child activities on children’s long-term psychosocial outcomes. This study used data from a subset of children (n=304, 142 male and 162 female) in the longitudinal cohort study, which studied the long-term impact of family socioeconomic status on child development. In 2012/13, we recruited a group of children at Kindergarten 3 (K3) randomly from Hong Kong local kindergartens and collected data regarding their duration of exposure to game console and recreational parent-child activities at that time. In 2018/19, we re-surveyed the parents of these children who were matriculated as Form 1 (F1) students (ages ranging from 11 to 13 years) in secondary schools and asked the parents to rate their children’s psychosocial problems in F1. Linear regressions were conducted to examine the associations between early exposures and adolescent psychosocial problems with and without adjustment for child gender and K3 family socioeconomic status. On average, K3 children spent about 42 minutes on a game console every day and had 2-3 recreational activities with their parents every week. Univariate analyses showed that more time spent on game consoles at K3 was associated with more psychosocial difficulties in F1 particularly more externalizing problems. The effect of early exposure to game console on externalizing behavior remained significant (B=0.59, 95%CI: 0.15 to 1.03, p=0.009) after adjusting for recreational parent-child activities and child gender. For recreational parent-child activities at K3, its effect on overall psychosocial difficulties became insignificant after adjusting for early exposure to game consoles and child gender. However, it was found to have significant protective effect on externalizing problems (B=-0.65, 95%CI: -1.23 to -0.07, p=0.028) even after adjusting for the confounders. Early exposure to game consoles has negative impact on children’s psychosocial health, whereas play-based parent-child activities can foster positive psychosocial outcomes. More efforts should be directed to propagate the risks and benefits of these activities and urge the parents and caregivers to replace child-alone screen time with parent-child play time in daily routine.

Keywords: early childhood, electronic device, parenting, psychosocial wellbeing

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Authors: Shaurya Chauhan, Sagar Gupta

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Prominent urbanizing centres across the globe like Delhi, Dhaka, or Manila have exhibited that development often faces a challenge in bridging the gap among the top-down collective requirements of the city and the bottom-up individual aspirations of the ever-diversifying population. When this exclusion is intertwined with rapid urbanization and diversifying urban demography: unplanned sprawl, poor planning, and low-density development emerge as automated responses. In parallel, new ideas and methods of densification and public participation are being widely adopted as sustainable alternatives for the future of urban development. This research advocates a collaborative design method for future development: one that allows rapid application with its prototypical nature and an inclusive approach with mediation between the 'user' and the 'urban', purely with the use of empirical tools. Building upon the concepts and principles of 'open-sourcing' in design, the research establishes a design framework that serves the current user requirements while allowing for future citizen-driven modifications. This is synthesized as a 3-tiered model: user needs – design ideology – adaptive details. The research culminates into a context-responsive 'open source project development framework' (hereinafter, referred to as OSPDF) that can be used for on-ground field applications. To bring forward specifics, the research looks at a 300-acre redevelopment in the core of a rapidly urbanizing city as a case encompassing extreme physical, demographic, and economic diversity. The suggestive measures also integrate the region’s cultural identity and social character with the diverse citizen aspirations, using architecture and urban design tools, and references from recognized literature. This framework, based on a vision – feedback – execution loop, is used for hypothetical development at the five prevalent scales in design: master planning, urban design, architecture, tectonics, and modularity, in a chronological manner. At each of these scales, the possible approaches and avenues for open- sourcing are identified and validated, through hit-and-trial, and subsequently recorded. The research attempts to re-calibrate the architectural design process and make it more responsive and people-centric. Analytical tools such as Space, Event, and Movement by Bernard Tschumi and Five-Point Mental Map by Kevin Lynch, among others, are deep rooted in the research process. Over the five-part OSPDF, a two-part subsidiary process is also suggested after each cycle of application, for a continued appraisal and refinement of the framework and urban fabric with time. The research is an exploration – of the possibilities for an architect – to adopt the new role of a 'mediator' in development of the contemporary urbanity.

Keywords: open source, public participation, urbanization, urban development

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Authors: P. S. Hsi, Y. F. Wang, Y. F. Ho, P. C. Hung

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The aim of the present study was to explore the dermal exposure assessment model of chemicals that have been developed abroad and to evaluate the feasibility of chemical dermal exposure assessment model for manufacturing industry in Taiwan. We conducted and analyzed six semi-quantitative risk management tools, including UK - Control of substances hazardous to health ( COSHH ) Europe – Risk assessment of occupational dermal exposure ( RISKOFDERM ), Netherlands - Dose related effect assessment model ( DREAM ), Netherlands – Stoffenmanager ( STOFFEN ), Nicaragua-Dermal exposure ranking method ( DERM ) and USA / Canada - Public Health Engineering Department ( PHED ). Five types of manufacturing industry were selected to evaluate. The Monte Carlo simulation was used to analyze the sensitivity of each factor, and the correlation between the assessment results of each semi-quantitative model and the exposure factors used in the model was analyzed to understand the important evaluation indicators of the dermal exposure assessment model. To assess the effectiveness of the semi-quantitative assessment models, this study also conduct quantitative dermal exposure results using prediction model and verify the correlation via Pearson's test. Results show that COSHH was unable to determine the strength of its decision factor because the results evaluated at all industries belong to the same risk level. In the DERM model, it can be found that the transmission process, the exposed area, and the clothing protection factor are all positively correlated. In the STOFFEN model, the fugitive, operation, near-field concentrations, the far-field concentration, and the operating time and frequency have a positive correlation. There is a positive correlation between skin exposure, work relative time, and working environment in the DREAM model. In the RISKOFDERM model, the actual exposure situation and exposure time have a positive correlation. We also found high correlation with the DERM and RISKOFDERM models, with coefficient coefficients of 0.92 and 0.93 (p<0.05), respectively. The STOFFEN and DREAM models have poor correlation, the coefficients are 0.24 and 0.29 (p>0.05), respectively. According to the results, both the DERM and RISKOFDERM models are suitable for performance in these selected manufacturing industries. However, considering the small sample size evaluated in this study, more categories of industries should be evaluated to reduce its uncertainty and enhance its applicability in the future.

Keywords: dermal exposure, risk management, quantitative estimation, feasibility evaluation

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Authors: Vrinda Hari Ankolekar, Anne D. Souza, Mamatha Hosapatna

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Introduction: Precise anatomical assessment of femoral neck anteversion (FNA) and the neck shaft angles (NSA) would be essential in diagnosing the pathological conditions involving hip joint and its ligaments. FNA of greater than 20 degrees is considered excessive femoral anteversion, whereas a torsion angle of fewer than 10 degrees is considered femoral retroversion. Excessive femoral torsion is not uncommon and has been associated with certain neurologic and orthopedic conditions. The enlargement and maturation of the hip joint increases at the 20th week of gestation and the NSA ranges from 135- 140◦ at birth. Material and methods: 48 femurs were tagged according to the GA and two photographs for each femur were taken using Nikon digital camera. Each femur was kept on a horizontal hard desk and end on an image of the upper end was taken for the estimation of FNA and a photograph in a perpendicular plane was taken to calculate the NSA. The images were transferred to the computer and were stored in TIFF format. Microsoft Paint software was used to mark the points and Image J software was used to calculate the angles digitally. 1. Calculation of FNA: The midpoint of the femoral head and the neck were marked and a line was drawn joining these two points. The angle made by this line with the horizontal plane was measured as FNA. 2. Calculation of NSA: The midpoint of the femoral head and the neck were marked and a line was drawn joining these two points. A vertical line was drawn passing through the tip of the greater trochanter to the inter-condylar notch. The angle formed by these lines was calculated as NSA. Results: The paired t-test for the inter-observer variability showed no significant difference between the values of two observers. (FNA: t=-1.06 and p=0.31; NSA: t=-0.09 and p=0.9). The FNA ranged from 17.08º to 33.97 º on right and 17.32 º to 45.08 º on left. The NSA ranged from 139.33 º to 124.91 º on right and 143.98 º to 123.8 º on left. Unpaired t-test was applied to compare the mean angles between the second and third trimesters which did not show any statistical significance. This shows that the FNA and NSA of femur did not vary significantly during the third trimester. The FNA and NSA were correlated with the GA using Pearson’s correlation. FNA appeared to increase with the GA (r=0.5) but the increase was not statistically significant. A decrease in the NSA was also noted with the GA (r=-0.3) which was also statistically not significant. Conclusion: The present study evaluates the FNA and NSA of the femur in fetuses and correlates their development with the GA during second and third trimesters. The FNA and NSA did not vary significantly during the third trimester.

Keywords: anteversion, coxa antetorsa, femoral torsion, femur neck shaft angle

Procedia PDF Downloads 319

Authors: M. Abderrahmane Mograne, Didier Laux, Jean-Yves Ferrandis

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Rheological characterizations of complex liquids like polymer solutions present an important scientific interest for a lot of researchers in many fields as biology, food industry, chemistry. In order to establish master curves (elastic moduli vs frequency) which can give information about microstructure, classical rheometers or viscometers (such as Couette systems) are used. For broadband characterization of the sample, temperature is modified in a very large range leading to equivalent frequency modifications applying the Time Temperature Superposition principle. For many liquids undergoing phase transitions, this approach is not applicable. That is the reason, why the development of broadband spectroscopic methods around room temperature becomes a major concern. In literature many solutions have been proposed but, to our knowledge, there is no experimental bench giving the whole rheological characterization for frequencies about a few Hz (Hertz) to many MHz (Mega Hertz). Consequently, our goal is to investigate in a nondestructive way in very broadband frequency (A few Hz – Hundreds of MHz) rheological properties using longitudinal ultrasonic waves (L waves), a unique experimental bench and a specific container for the liquid: a test tube. More specifically, we aim to estimate the three viscosities (longitudinal, shear and bulk) and the complex elastic moduli (M*, G* and K*) respectively longitudinal, shear and bulk moduli. We have decided to use only L waves conditioned in two ways: bulk L wave in the liquid or guided L waves in the tube test walls. In this paper, we will present first results for very low frequencies using the ultrasonic tracking of a falling ball in the test tube. This will lead to the estimation of shear viscosity from a few mPa.s to a few Pa.s (Pascal second). Corrections due to the small dimensions of the tube will be applied and discussed regarding the size of the falling ball. Then the use of bulk L wave’s propagation in the liquid and the development of a specific signal processing in order to assess longitudinal velocity and attenuation will conduct to the longitudinal viscosity evaluation in the MHz frequency range. At last, the first results concerning the propagation, the generation and the processing of guided compressional waves in the test tube walls will be discussed. All these approaches and results will be compared to standard methods available and already validated in our lab.

Keywords: nondestructive measurement for liquid, piezoelectric transducer, ultrasonic longitudinal waves, viscosities

Procedia PDF Downloads 265

Authors: W. S. Thulasitha, N. Umasuthan, G. I. Godahewa, Jehee Lee

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In fish, innate immune defense is the first immune response against microbial pathogens which consists of several antimicrobial components. Galectins are one of the carbohydrate binding lectins that have the ability to identify pathogen by recognition of pathogen associated molecular patterns. Galectins play a vital role in the regulation of innate and adaptive immune responses. Rock bream Oplegnathus fasciatus is one of the most important cultured species in Korea and Japan. Considering the losses due to microbial pathogens, present study was carried out to understand the molecular and functional characteristics of a galectin in normal and pathogenic conditions, which could help to establish an understanding about immunological components of rock bream. Complete cDNA of rock bream galectin like protein B (rbGal like B) was identified from the cDNA library, and the in silico analysis was carried out using bioinformatic tools. Genomic structure was derived from the BAC library by sequencing a specific clone and using Spidey. Full length of rbGal like B (contig14775) cDNA containing 517 nucleotides was identified from the cDNA library which comprised of 435 bp in the open reading frame encoding a deduced protein composed of 145 amino acids. The molecular mass of putative protein was predicted as 16.14 kDa with an isoelectric point of 8.55. A characteristic conserved galactose binding domain was located from 12 to 145 amino acids. Genomic structure of rbGal like B consisted of 4 exons and 3 introns. Moreover, pairwise alignment showed that rock bream rbGal like B shares highest similarity (95.9 %) and identity (91 %) with Takifugu rubripes galectin related protein B like and lowest similarity (55.5 %) and identity (32.4 %) with Homo sapiens. Multiple sequence alignment demonstrated that the galectin related protein B was conserved among vertebrates. A phylogenetic analysis revealed that rbGal like B protein clustered together with other fish homologs in fish clade. It showed closer evolutionary link with Takifugu rubripes. Tissue distribution and expression patterns of rbGal like B upon immune challenges were performed using qRT-PCR assays. Among all tested tissues, level of rbGal like B expression was significantly high in gill tissue followed by kidney, intestine, heart and spleen. Upon immune challenges, it showed an up-regulated pattern of expression with Edwardsiella tarda, rock bream irido virus and poly I:C up to 6 h post injection and up to 24 h with LPS. However, In the presence of Streptococcus iniae rbGal like B showed an up and down pattern of expression with the peak at 6 - 12 h. Results from the present study revealed the phylogenetic position and role of rbGal like B in response to microbial infection in rock bream.

Keywords: galectin like protein B, immune response, Oplegnathus fasciatus, molecular characterization

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Authors: Ginger Egberts, Fred Vermolen, Paul van Zuijlen

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One of the common complications in post-burn scars is contractions. Depending on the extent of contraction and the wound dimensions, the contracture can cause a limited range-of-motion of joints. A one-dimensional morphoelastic continuum hypothesis-based model describing post-burn scar contractions is considered. The beauty of the one-dimensional model is the speed; hence it quickly yields new results and, therefore, insight. This model describes the movement of the skin and the development of the strain present. Besides these mechanical components, the model also contains chemical components that play a major role in the wound healing process. These components are fibroblasts, myofibroblasts, the so-called signaling molecules, and collagen. The dermal layer is modeled as an isotropic morphoelastic solid, and pulling forces are generated by myofibroblasts. The solution to the model equations is approximated by the finite-element method using linear basis functions. One of the major challenges in biomechanical modeling is the estimation of parameter values. Therefore, this study provides a comprehensive description of skin mechanical parameter values and a sensitivity analysis. Further, since skin mechanical properties change with aging, it is important that the model is feasible for predicting the development of contraction in burn patients of different ages, and hence this study provides a feasibility study. The variability in the solutions is caused by varying the values for some parameters simultaneously over the domain of computation, for which the results of the sensitivity analysis are used. The sensitivity analysis shows that the most sensitive parameters are the equilibrium concentration of collagen, the apoptosis rate of fibroblasts and myofibroblasts, and the secretion rate of signaling molecules. This suggests that most of the variability in the evolution of contraction in burns in patients of different ages might be caused mostly by the decreasing equilibrium of collagen concentration. As expected, the feasibility study shows this model can be used to show distinct extents of contractions in burns in patients of different ages. Nevertheless, contraction formation in children differs from contraction formation in adults because of the growth. This factor has not been incorporated in the model yet, and therefore the feasibility results for children differ from what is seen in the clinic.

Keywords: biomechanics, burns, feasibility, fibroblasts, morphoelasticity, sensitivity analysis, skin mechanics, wound contraction

Procedia PDF Downloads 160

Authors: Madhusudana S. N., Reeta Mani, Ashwini S. Satishchandra P., Netravati, Udhani V., Fiaz A., Karande S.

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Rabies is an acute encephalitis which is considered 100% fatal despite occasional reports of survivors. However, in recent times more cases of human rabies survivors are being reported. In the last 5 years, there are six laboratories confirmed human rabies survivors in India alone. All cases were children below 15 years and all contracted the disease by dog bites. All of them also had received the full or partial course of rabies vaccination and 4 out of 6 had also received rabies immunoglobulin. All cases were treated in intensive care units in hospitals at Bangalore, Mumbai, Chandigarh, Lucknow and Goa. We report here the results of immunological and virological studies conducted at our laboratory on these patients. The clinical samples that were obtained from these patients were Serum, CSF, nuchal skin biopsy and saliva. Serum and CSF samples were subjected to standard RFFIT for estimation of rabies neutralizing antibodies. Skin biopsy, CSF and saliva were processed by TaqMan real-time PCR for detection of viral RNA. CSF, saliva and skin homogenates were also processed for virus isolation by inoculation of suckling mice. The PBMCs isolated from fresh blood was subjected to ELISPOT assay to determine the type of immune response (Th1/Th2). Both CSF and serum were also investigated for selected cytokines by Luminex assay. The level of antibodies to virus G protein and N protein were determined by ELISA. All survivors had very high titers of RVNA in serum and CSF 100 fold higher than non-survivors and vaccine controls. A five-fold rise in titer could be demonstrated in 4 out of 6 patients. All survivors had a significant increase in antibodies to G protein in both CSF and serum when compared to non-survivors. There was a profound and robust Th1 response in all survivors indicating that interferon gamma could play an important factor in virus clearance. We could isolate viral RNA in only one patient four years after he had developed symptoms. The partial N gene sequencing revealed 99% homology to species I strain prevalent in India. Levels of selected cytokines in CSF and serum did not reveal any difference between survivors and non-survivors. To conclude, survival from rabies is mediated by virus-specific immune responses of the host and clearance of rabies virus from CNS may involve the participation of both Th2 and Th1 immune responses.

Keywords: rabies, rabies treatment, rabies survivors, immune reponse in rabies encephalitis

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Authors: Ghada El-Husseiny, Dina Yousri, Christian Richter

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Social services are often characterized by market failures, which justifies government intervention in the provision of these services. It is widely acknowledged that government intervention breeds corruption since resources are being transferred from one party to another. However, what is still being extensively studied is the magnitude of the negative impact of corruption on publicly provided services and development outcomes. Corruption has the power to hinder development and cripple our march towards the Sustainable Development Goals. Corruption diminishes the efficiency and effectiveness of public health and education spending and directly impacts the outcomes of these sectors. This paper empirically examines the impact of Institutional Failure on public sector services provision, with the sole purpose of studying the impact of corruption on SDG3 and 4; Good health and wellbeing and Quality education, respectively. The paper explores the effect of corruption on these goals from various perspectives and extends the analysis by examining if the impact of corruption on these goals differed when it accounted for the current corruption state. Using Pooled OLS(Ordinary Least Square) and Fixed effects panel estimation on 22 corrupt and 22 clean countries between 2000 and 2017. Results show that corruption in both corrupt and clean countries has a more severe impact on Health than the Education sector. In almost all specifications, corruption has an insignificant effect on School Enrollment rates but a significant effect on Infant Mortality rates. Results further indicate that, on average, a 1 point increase in the CPI(Consumer Price Index) can increase health expenditures by 0.116% in corrupt and clean countries. However, the fixed effects model indicates that the way Health and Education expenditures are determined in clean and corrupt countries are completely country-specific, in which corruption plays a minimal role. Moreover, the findings show that School Enrollment rates and Infant Mortality rates depend, to a large extent, on public spending. The most astounding results-driven is that corrupt countries, on average, have more effective and efficient healthcare expenditures. While some insights are provided as to why these results prevail, they should be further researched. All in all, corruption impedes development outcomes, and any Anti-corrupt policies taken will bring forth immense improvements and speed up the march towards sustainability.

Keywords: corruption, education, health, public spending, sustainable development

Procedia PDF Downloads 169

Authors: Sherine S. Aly, Fahd A. Hemeida, Mohamed A. Elshamy

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In the face of rapid urbanization and the myriad challenges posed by climate change, population growth, and socio-economic disparities, fostering urban resilience has become paramount. This abstract offers a comprehensive overview of the study on "Urban Resilience Challenges," exploring the background, methodologies, major findings, and concluding insights. The paper unveils a spectrum of challenges encompassing environmental stressors and deep-seated socio-economic issues, such as unequal access to resources and opportunities. Emphasizing their interconnected nature, the study underscores the imperative for holistic and integrated approaches to urban resilience, recognizing the intricate web of factors shaping the urban landscape. Urbanization has witnessed an unprecedented surge, transforming cities into dynamic and complex entities. With this growth, however, comes an array of challenges that threaten the sustainability and resilience of urban environments. This study seeks to unravel the multifaceted urban resilience challenges, exploring their origins and implications for contemporary cities. Cities serve as hubs of economic, social, and cultural activities, attracting diverse populations seeking opportunities and a higher quality of life. However, the urban fabric is increasingly strained by climate-related events, infrastructure vulnerabilities, and social inequalities. Understanding the nuances of these challenges is crucial for developing strategies that enhance urban resilience and ensure the longevity of cities as vibrant and adaptive entities. This paper endeavors to discern strategic guidelines for enhancing urban resilience amidst the dynamic challenges posed by rapid urbanization. The study aims to distill actionable insights that can inform strategic approaches. Guiding the formulation of effective strategies to fortify cities against multifaceted pressures. The study employs a multifaceted approach to dissect urban resilience challenges. A qualitative method will be employed, including comprehensive literature reviews and data analysis of urban vulnerabilities that provided valuable insights into the lived experiences of resilience challenges in diverse urban settings. In conclusion, this study underscores the urgency of addressing urban resilience challenges to ensure the sustained vitality of cities worldwide. The interconnected nature of these challenges necessitates a paradigm shift in urban planning and governance. By adopting holistic strategies that integrate environmental, social, and economic considerations, cities can navigate the complexities of the 21st century. The findings provide a roadmap for policymakers, planners, and communities to collaboratively forge resilient urban futures that withstand the challenges of an ever-evolving urban landscape.

Keywords: resilient principles, risk management, sustainable cities, urban resilience

Procedia PDF Downloads 54

Authors: Saeidreza Radpour, Md. Alam Mondal, Amit Kumar

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Market penetration of high energy efficiency technologies has key impacts on energy consumption and GHG mitigation. Also, it will be useful to manage the policies formulated by public or private organizations to achieve energy or environmental targets. Energy intensity in residential sector of Alberta was 148.8 GJ per household in 2012 which is 39% more than the average of Canada 106.6 GJ, it was the highest amount among the provinces on per household energy consumption. Energy intensity by appliances of Alberta was 15.3 GJ per household in 2012 which is 14% higher than average value of other provinces and territories in energy demand intensity by appliances in Canada. In this research, a framework has been developed to analyze the market penetration and market share of high energy efficiency technologies in residential sector. The overall methodology was based on development of data-intensive models’ estimation of the market penetration of the appliances in the residential sector over a time period. The developed models were a function of a number of macroeconomic and technical parameters. Developed mathematical equations were developed based on twenty-two years of historical data (1990-2011). The models were analyzed through a series of statistical tests. The market shares of high efficiency appliances were estimated based on the related variables such as capital and operating costs, discount rate, appliance’s life time, annual interest rate, incentives and maximum achievable efficiency in the period of 2015 to 2050. Results show that the market penetration of refrigerators is higher than that of other appliances. The stocks of refrigerators per household are anticipated to increase from 1.28 in 2012 to 1.314 and 1.328 in 2030 and 2050, respectively. Modelling results show that the market penetration rate of stand-alone freezers will decrease between 2012 and 2050. Freezer stock per household will decline from 0.634 in 2012 to 0.556 and 0.515 in 2030 and 2050, respectively. The stock of dishwashers per household is expected to increase from 0.761 in 2012 to 0.865 and 0.960 in 2030 and 2050, respectively. The increase in the market penetration rate of clothes washers and clothes dryers is nearly parallel. The stock of clothes washers and clothes dryers per household is expected to rise from 0.893 and 0.979 in 2012 to 0.960 and 1.0 in 2050, respectively. This proposed presentation will include detailed discussion on the modelling methodology and results.

Keywords: appliances efficiency improvement, energy star, market penetration, residential sector

Procedia PDF Downloads 285

Authors: Zeinab Jafari A., Ali Sharifnezhad B., Mohammad Razi C., Mohammad Haghpanahi D., Arash Maghsoudi

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Background and Objective: Sports-related rupture of the anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) and following injuries have been associated with various disorders, such as long-lasting changes in muscle activation patterns in athletes, which might last after ACL reconstruction (ACLR). The rupture of the ACL might result in abnormal patterns of movement execution, extending the treatment period and delaying athletes’ return to sports (RTS). As ACL injury is especially prevalent among athletes, the lengthy treatment process and athletes’ absence from sports are of great concern to athletes and coaches. Thus, estimating safe time of RTS is of crucial importance. Therefore, using a deep neural network (DNN) to classify the health levels of ACL in injured athletes, this study aimed to estimate the safe time for athletes to return to competitions. Methods: Ten athletes with ACLR and fourteen healthy controls participated in this study. Three health levels of ACL were defined: healthy, six-month post-ACLR surgery and nine-month post-ACLR surgery. Athletes with ACLR were tested six and nine months after the ACLR surgery. During the course of this study, surface electromyography (sEMG) signals were recorded from five knee muscles, namely Rectus Femoris (RF), Vastus Lateralis (VL), Vastus Medialis (VM), Biceps Femoris (BF), Semitendinosus (ST), during single-leg drop landing (SLDL) and forward hopping (SLFH) tasks. The Pseudo-Wigner-Ville distribution (PWVD) was used to produce three-dimensional (3-D) images of the energy distribution patterns of sEMG signals. Then, these 3-D images were converted to two-dimensional (2-D) images implementing the heat mapping technique, which were then fed to a deep convolutional neural network (DCNN). Results: In this study, we estimated the safe time of RTS by designing a DCNN classifier with an accuracy of 90 %, which could classify ACL into three health levels. Discussion: The findings of this study demonstrate the potential of the DCNN classification technique using sEMG signals in estimating RTS time, which will assist in evaluating the recovery process of ACLR in athletes.

Keywords: anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction, return to sports, surface electromyography, deep convolutional neural network

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Authors: Lalit Kumar, Rashid Al Shidi

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Phoenix dactylifera (date palm) is a major crop in many middle-eastern countries, including Oman. The Dubas bug Ommatissus lybicus is the main pest that affects date palm crops. However not all plantations are infested. It is still uncertain why some plantations get infested while others are not. This research investigated whether tree density and the system of planting (random versus systematic) had any relationship with infestation and levels of infestation. Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Systems were used to determine the density of trees (number of trees per unit area) while infestation levels were determined by manual counting of insects on 40 leaflets from two fronds on each tree, with a total of 20-60 trees in each village. The infestation was recorded as the average number of insects per leaflet. For tree density estimation, WorldView-3 scenes, with eight bands and 2m spatial resolution, were used. The Local maxima method, which depends on locating of the pixel of highest brightness inside a certain exploration window, was used to identify the trees in the image and delineating individual trees. This information was then used to determine whether the plantation was random or systematic. The ordinary least square regression (OLS) was used to test the global correlation between tree density and infestation level and the Geographic Weight Regression (GWR) was used to find the local spatial relationship. The accuracy of detecting trees varied from 83–99% in agricultural lands with systematic planting patterns to 50–70% in natural forest areas. Results revealed that the density of the trees in most of the villages was higher than the recommended planting number (120–125 trees/hectare). For infestation correlations, the GWR model showed a good positive significant relationship between infestation and tree density in the spring season with R² = 0.60 and medium positive significant relationship in the autumn season, with R² = 0.30. In contrast, the OLS model results showed a weaker positive significant relationship in the spring season with R² = 0.02, p < 0.05 and insignificant relationship in the autumn season with R² = 0.01, p > 0.05. The results showed a positive correlation between infestation and tree density, which suggests the infestation severity increased as the density of date palm trees increased. The correlation result showed that the density alone was responsible for about 60% of the increase in the infestation. This information can be used by the relevant authorities to better control infestations as well as to manage their pesticide spraying programs.

Keywords: dubas bug, date palm, tree density, infestation levels

Procedia PDF Downloads 193

Authors: Aayushi Pandey, Manoj Kumar Pandey, Ashutosh Tiwari, Kireet Kumar

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Glaciers play an important role in climate change and are sensitive phenomena of global climate change scenario. Glaciers in Himalayas are unique as they are predominantly valley type and are located in tropical, high altitude regions. These glaciers are often covered with debris which greatly affects ablation rate of glaciers and work as a sensitive indicator of glacier health. The aim of this study is to map high altitude Glacier surface with a focus on glacial lake and debris estimation using different techniques in Nagling glacier of dhauliganga basin in Himalayan region. Different Image Classification techniques i.e. thresholding on different band ratios and supervised classification using maximum likelihood classifier (MLC) have been used on high resolution sentinel 2A level 1c satellite imagery of 14 October 2017.Here Near Infrared (NIR)/Shortwave Infrared (SWIR) ratio image was used to extract the glaciated classes (Snow, Ice, Ice Mixed Debris) from other non-glaciated terrain classes. SWIR/BLUE Ratio Image was used to map valley rock and Debris while Green/NIR ratio image was found most suitable for mapping Glacial Lake. Accuracy assessment was performed using high resolution (3 meters) Planetscope Imagery using 60 stratified random points. The overall accuracy of MLC was 85 % while the accuracy of Band Ratios was 96.66 %. According to Band Ratio technique total areal extent of glaciated classes (Snow, Ice ,IMD) in Nagling glacier was 10.70 km2 nearly 38.07% of study area comprising of 30.87 % Snow covered area, 3.93% Ice and 3.27 % IMD covered area. Non-glaciated classes (vegetation, glacial lake, debris and valley rock) covered 61.93 % of the total area out of which valley rock is dominant with 33.83% coverage followed by debris covering 27.7 % of the area in nagling glacier. Glacial lake and Debris were accurately mapped using Band ratio technique Hence, Band Ratio approach appears to be useful for the mapping of debris covered glacier in Himalayan Region.

Keywords: band ratio, Dhauliganga basin, glacier mapping, Himalayan region, maximum likelihood classifier (MLC), Sentinel-2 satellite image

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Authors: Vanessa Kummer, Maik Meusel

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Real estate demand estimates are typically derived from transaction data. However, in regions with excess demand, transactions are driven by supply and therefore do not indicate what people are actually looking for. To estimate the demand for housing in Switzerland, search subscriptions from all important Swiss real estate platforms are used. These data do, however, suffer from missing information—for example, many users do not specify how many rooms they would like or what price they would be willing to pay. In economic analyses, it is often the case that only complete data is used. Usually, however, the proportion of complete data is rather small which leads to most information being neglected. Also, the data might have a strong distortion if it is complete. In addition, the reason that data is missing might itself also contain information, which is however ignored with that approach. An interesting issue is, therefore, if for economic analyses such as the one at hand, there is an added value by using the whole data set with the imputed missing values compared to using the usually small percentage of complete data (baseline). Also, it is interesting to see how different algorithms affect that result. The imputation of the missing data is done using unsupervised learning. Out of the numerous unsupervised learning approaches, the most common ones, such as clustering, principal component analysis, or neural networks techniques are applied. By training the model iteratively on the imputed data and, thereby, including the information of all data into the model, the distortion of the first training set—the complete data—vanishes. In a next step, the performances of the algorithms are measured. This is done by randomly creating missing values in subsets of the data, estimating those values with the relevant algorithms and several parameter combinations, and comparing the estimates to the actual data. After having found the optimal parameter set for each algorithm, the missing values are being imputed. Using the resulting data sets, the next step is to estimate the willingness to pay for real estate. This is done by fitting price distributions for real estate properties with certain characteristics, such as the region or the number of rooms. Based on these distributions, survival functions are computed to obtain the functional relationship between characteristics and selling probabilities. Comparing the survival functions shows that estimates which are based on imputed data sets do not differ significantly from each other; however, the demand estimate that is derived from the baseline data does. This indicates that the baseline data set does not include all available information and is therefore not representative for the entire sample. Also, demand estimates derived from the whole data set are much more accurate than the baseline estimation. Thus, in order to obtain optimal results, it is important to make use of all available data, even though it involves additional procedures such as data imputation.

Keywords: demand estimate, missing-data imputation, real estate, unsupervised learning

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Authors: M. Gulam Kibria, Shourav Ahmed, Kais Zaman

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In system analysis, the information on the uncertain input variables cause uncertainty in the system responses. Different probabilistic approaches for uncertainty representation and propagation in such cases exist in the literature. Different uncertainty representation approaches result in different outputs. Some of the approaches might result in a better estimation of system response than the other approaches. The NASA Langley Multidisciplinary Uncertainty Quantification Challenge (MUQC) has posed challenges about uncertainty quantification. Subproblem A, the uncertainty characterization subproblem, of the challenge posed is addressed in this study. In this subproblem, the challenge is to gather knowledge about unknown model inputs which have inherent aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in them with responses (output) of the given computational model. We use two different methodologies to approach the problem. In the first methodology we use sampling-based uncertainty propagation with first order error analysis. In the other approach we place emphasis on the use of Percentile-Based Optimization (PBO). The NASA Langley MUQC’s subproblem A is developed in such a way that both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties need to be managed. The challenge problem classifies each uncertain parameter as belonging to one the following three types: (i) An aleatory uncertainty modeled as a random variable. It has a fixed functional form and known coefficients. This uncertainty cannot be reduced. (ii) An epistemic uncertainty modeled as a fixed but poorly known physical quantity that lies within a given interval. This uncertainty is reducible. (iii) A parameter might be aleatory but sufficient data might not be available to adequately model it as a single random variable. For example, the parameters of a normal variable, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, might not be precisely known but could be assumed to lie within some intervals. It results in a distributional p-box having the physical parameter with an aleatory uncertainty, but the parameters prescribing its mathematical model are subjected to epistemic uncertainties. Each of the parameters of the random variable is an unknown element of a known interval. This uncertainty is reducible. From the study, it is observed that due to practical limitations or computational expense, the sampling is not exhaustive in sampling-based methodology. That is why the sampling-based methodology has high probability of underestimating the output bounds. Therefore, an optimization-based strategy to convert uncertainty described by interval data into a probabilistic framework is necessary. This is achieved in this study by using PBO.

Keywords: aleatory uncertainty, epistemic uncertainty, first order error analysis, uncertainty quantification, percentile-based optimization

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Authors: Pomila Sharma

Abstract:

Rajasthan is among regions with greatest climate sensitivity and lowest adaptive capabilities. In many parts of the Rajasthan surface water which can be highly turbid and contaminated with fecal coliform bacteria is used for drinking purposes. The majority rely almost exclusively upon traditional sources of highly turbid and untreated pathogenic surface water for their domestic water needs. In many parts of rural areas of Rajasthan, it is still difficult to obtain clean water, especially remote habitations with no groundwater due to quality issues or depletion and limited feasibility to connect with surface water schemes due to low density of population in these areas to justify large infrastructure investment. The most viable sources are rain water harvesting, community managed open wells, private wells, ponds and small-scale irrigation reservoirs have often been the main traditional sources of rural drinking water. Turbidity is conventionally removed by treating the water with expensive chemicals. This study has to investigate the use of crushed seeds from the tree Moringa oleifera (drumstick) as a natural alternative to conventional coagulant chemicals. The use of Moringa oleifera seed powder can produce potable water of higher quality than the original source. Moringa oleifera a native species of northern India, the tree is now grown extensively throughout the tropics and found in many countries of Africa, Asia & South America. The seeds of tree contains significant quantities of low molecular weight, water soluble proteins which carries the positive charge when the crushed seeds are added to water. This protein binds in raw water with negatively charged turbid water with bacteria, clay, algae, etc. Under proper mixing, these particles make flocks, which may be left to settle by gravity or be removed by filtration. Using Moringa oleifera as a replacement coagulation in such surface sources of arid and semi-arid areas can meet the need for water purification in remote places of Rajasthan state of India. The present study accesses to find out laboratory based investigation of the effect of seeds of Moringa tree on its coagulation effectiveness (purification) using turbid water samples of surface source of the Rajasthan state. In this study, moringa seed powder showed that filtering with seed powder may diminish water pollution and bacterial counts. Results showed Moringa oleifera seeds coagulate 90-95% of turbidity and color efficiently leading to an aesthetically clear supernatant & reduced about 85-90% of bacterial load reduction in samples.

Keywords: bacterial load, coagulant, turbidity, water purification

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