Search results for: hypothesis modelling
Commenced in January 2007
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Edition: International
Paper Count: 3023

Search results for: hypothesis modelling

473 Human’s Sensitive Reactions during Different Geomagnetic Activity: An Experimental Study in Natural and Simulated Conditions

Authors: Ketevan Janashia, Tamar Tsibadze, Levan Tvildiani, Nikoloz Invia, Elguja Kubaneishvili, Vasili Kukhianidze, George Ramishvili

Abstract:

This study considers the possible effects of geomagnetic activity (GMA) on humans situated on Earth by performing experiments concerning specific sensitive reactions in humans in both: natural conditions during different GMA and by the simulation of different GMA in the lab. The measurements of autonomic nervous system (ANS) responses to different GMA via measuring the heart rate variability (HRV) indices and stress index (SI) and their comparison with the K-index of GMA have been presented and discussed. The results of experiments indicate an intensification of the sympathetic part of the ANS as a stress reaction of the human organism when it is exposed to high level of GMA as natural as well as in simulated conditions. Aim: We tested the hypothesis whether the GMF when disturbed can have effects on human ANS causing specific sensitive stress-reactions depending on the initial type of ANS. Methods: The study focuses on the effects of different GMA on ANS by comparing of HRV indices and stress index (SI) of n= 78, 18-24 years old healthy male volunteers. Experiments were performed as natural conditions on days of low (K= 1-3) and high (K= 5-7) GMA as well as in the lab by the simulation of different GMA using the device of geomagnetic storm (GMS) compensation and simulation. Results: In comparison with days of low GMA (K=1-3) the initial values of HRV shifted towards the intensification of the sympathetic part (SP) of the ANS during days of GMSs (K=5-7) with statistical significance p-values: HR (heart rate, p= 0.001), SDNN (Standard deviation of all Normal to Normal intervals, p= 0.0001), RMSSD (The square root of the arithmetical mean of the sum of the squares of differences between adjacent NN intervals, p= 0.0001). In comparison with conditions during GMSs compensation mode (K= 0, B= 0-5nT), the ANS balance was observed to shift during exposure to simulated GMSs with intensities in the range of natural GMSs (K= 7, B= 200nT). However, the initial values of the ANS resulted in different dynamics in its variation depending of GMA level. In the case of initial balanced regulation type (HR > 80) significant intensification of SP was observed with p-values: HR (p= 0.0001), SDNN (p= 0.047), RMSSD (p= 0.28), LF/HF (p=0.03), SI (p= 0.02); while in the case of initial parasympathetic regulation type (HR < 80), an insignificant shift to the intensification of the parasympathetic part (PP) was observed. Conclusions: The results indicate an intensification of SP as a stress reaction of the human organism when it is exposed to high level of GMA in both natural and simulated conditions.

Keywords: autonomic nervous system, device of magneto compensation/simulation, geomagnetic storms, heart rate variability

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472 Modelling the Effect of Alcohol Consumption on the Accelerating and Braking Behaviour of Drivers

Authors: Ankit Kumar Yadav, Nagendra R. Velaga

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Driving under the influence of alcohol impairs the driving performance and increases the crash risks worldwide. The present study investigated the effect of different Blood Alcohol Concentrations (BAC) on the accelerating and braking behaviour of drivers with the help of driving simulator experiments. Eighty-two licensed Indian drivers drove on the rural road environment designed in the driving simulator at BAC levels of 0.00%, 0.03%, 0.05%, and 0.08% respectively. Driving performance was analysed with the help of vehicle control performance indicators such as mean acceleration and mean brake pedal force of the participants. Preliminary analysis reported an increase in mean acceleration and mean brake pedal force with increasing BAC levels. Generalized linear mixed models were developed to quantify the effect of different alcohol levels and explanatory variables such as driver’s age, gender and other driver characteristic variables on the driving performance indicators. Alcohol use was reported as a significant factor affecting the accelerating and braking performance of the drivers. The acceleration model results indicated that mean acceleration of the drivers increased by 0.013 m/s², 0.026 m/s² and 0.027 m/s² for the BAC levels of 0.03%, 0.05% and 0.08% respectively. Results of the brake pedal force model reported that mean brake pedal force of the drivers increased by 1.09 N, 1.32 N and 1.44 N for the BAC levels of 0.03%, 0.05% and 0.08% respectively. Age was a significant factor in both the models where one year increase in drivers’ age resulted in 0.2% reduction in mean acceleration and 19% reduction in mean brake pedal force of the drivers. It shows that driving experience could compensate for the negative effects of alcohol to some extent while driving. Female drivers were found to accelerate slower and brake harder as compared to the male drivers which confirmed that female drivers are more conscious about their safety while driving. It was observed that drivers who were regular exercisers had better control on their accelerator pedal as compared to the non-regular exercisers during drunken driving. The findings of the present study revealed that drivers tend to be more aggressive and impulsive under the influence of alcohol which deteriorates their driving performance. Drunk driving state can be differentiated from sober driving state by observing the accelerating and braking behaviour of the drivers. The conclusions may provide reference in making countermeasures against drinking and driving and contribute to traffic safety.

Keywords: alcohol, acceleration, braking behaviour, driving simulator

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471 A Topology-Based Dynamic Repair Strategy for Enhancing Urban Road Network Resilience under Flooding

Authors: Xuhui Lin, Qiuchen Lu, Yi An, Tao Yang

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As global climate change intensifies, extreme weather events such as floods increasingly threaten urban infrastructure, making the vulnerability of urban road networks a pressing issue. Existing static repair strategies fail to adapt to the rapid changes in road network conditions during flood events, leading to inefficient resource allocation and suboptimal recovery. The main research gap lies in the lack of repair strategies that consider both the dynamic characteristics of networks and the progression of flood propagation. This paper proposes a topology-based dynamic repair strategy that adjusts repair priorities based on real-time changes in flood propagation and traffic demand. Specifically, a novel method is developed to assess and enhance the resilience of urban road networks during flood events. The method combines road network topological analysis, flood propagation modelling, and traffic flow simulation, introducing a local importance metric to dynamically evaluate the significance of road segments across different spatial and temporal scales. Using London's road network and rainfall data as a case study, the effectiveness of this dynamic strategy is compared to traditional and Transport for London (TFL) strategies. The most significant highlight of the research is that the dynamic strategy substantially reduced the number of stranded vehicles across different traffic demand periods, improving efficiency by up to 35.2%. The advantage of this method lies in its ability to adapt in real-time to changes in network conditions, enabling more precise resource allocation and more efficient repair processes. This dynamic strategy offers significant value to urban planners, traffic management departments, and emergency response teams, helping them better respond to extreme weather events like floods, enhance overall urban resilience, and reduce economic losses and social impacts.

Keywords: Urban resilience, road networks, flood response, dynamic repair strategy, topological analysis

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470 Remote Criminal Proceedings as Implication to Rethink the Principles of Criminal Procedure

Authors: Inga Žukovaitė

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This paper aims to present postdoc research on remote criminal proceedings in court. In this period, when most countries have introduced the possibility of remote criminal proceedings in their procedural laws, it is not only possible to identify the weaknesses and strengths of the legal regulation but also assess the effectiveness of the instrument used and to develop an approach to the process. The example of some countries (for example, Italy) shows, on the one hand, that criminal procedure, based on orality and immediacy, does not lend itself to easy modifications that pose even a slight threat of devaluation of these principles in a society with well-established traditions of this procedure. On the other hand, such strong opposition and criticism make us ask whether we are facing the possibility of rethinking the traditional ways to understand the safeguards in order to preserve their essence without devaluing their traditional package but looking for new components to replace or compensate for the so-called “loss” of safeguards. The reflection on technological progress in the field of criminal procedural law indicates the need to rethink, on the basis of fundamental procedural principles, the safeguards that can replace or compensate for those that are in crisis as a result of the intervention of technological progress. Discussions in academic doctrine on the impact of technological interventions on the proceedings as such or on the limits of such interventions refer to the principles of criminal procedure as to a point of reference. In the context of the inferiority of technology, scholarly debate still addresses the issue of whether the court will not gradually become a mere site for the exercise of penal power with the resultant consequences – the deformation of the procedure itself as a physical ritual. In this context, this work seeks to illustrate the relationship between remote criminal proceedings in court and the principle of immediacy, the concept of which is based on the application of different models of criminal procedure (inquisitorial and adversarial), the aim is to assess the challenges posed for legal regulation by the interaction of technological progress with the principles of criminal procedure. The main hypothesis to be tested is that the adoption of remote proceedings is directly linked to the prevailing model of criminal procedure, arguing that the more principles of the inquisitorial model are applied to the criminal process, the more remote criminal trial is acceptable, and conversely, the more the criminal process is based on an adversarial model, more the remote criminal process is seen as incompatible with the principle of immediacy. In order to achieve this goal, the following tasks are set: to identify whether there is a difference in assessing remote proceedings with the immediacy principle between the adversarial model and the inquisitorial model, to analyse the main aspects of the regulation of remote criminal proceedings based on the examples of different countries (for example Lithuania, Italy, etc.).

Keywords: remote criminal proceedings, principle of orality, principle of immediacy, adversarial model inquisitorial model

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469 Corporate Social Responsibility Practices of Local Large Firms in the Developing Economies: The Case of the East Africa Region

Authors: Lilian Kishimbo

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This study aims to examine Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) practices of local large firms of East Africa region. In this study CSR is defined as all actions that go beyond obeying minimum legal requirements as espoused by other authors. Despite the increase of CSR literature empirical evidence clearly demonstrate an imbalance of CSR studies in the developing countries . Moreover, it is evident that most of the research on CSR in developing economies emerges from large fast-growing economies or BRICS members (i.e. Brazil, India, China and South Africa), and Indonesia and Malaysia and a further call for more research in Africa is particularly advocated. Taking Africa as an example, there are scanty researches on CSR practices, and the few available studies are mainly from Nigeria and South Africa leaving other parts of Africa for example East Africa underrepresented. Furthermore, in the face of globalization, experience shows that literature has focused mostly on multinational companies (MNCs) operating in either North-North or North-South and less on South-South indigenous local firms. Thus the existing literature in Africa shows more studies of MNCs and little is known about CSR of local indigenous firms operating in the South particularly in the East Africa region. Accordingly, this paper explores CSR practices of indigenous local large firms of East Africa region particularly Kenya and Tanzania with the aim of testing the hypothesis that do local firms of East Africa region engage in similar CSR practices as firms in other parts of the world?. To answer this question only listed local large firms were considered based on the assumption that they are large enough to engage. Newspapers were the main source of data and information collected was supplemented by business Annual Reports for the period 2010-2012. The research finding revealed that local firms of East Africa engage in CSR practices. However, there are some differences in the set of activities these firms prefers to engage in compared to findings from previous studies. As such some CSR that were given priority by firms in East Africa were less prioritized in the other part of the world including Indonesia. This paper will add knowledge to the body of CSR and experience of CSR practices of South-South indigenous firms where is evidenced to have a relative dearth of literature on CSR. Finally, the paper concludes that local firms of East Africa region engage in similar activities like other firms globally. But firms give more priority to some activities such education and health related activities. Finally, the study intends to assist policy makers at firm’s levels to plan for long lasting projects related to CSR for their stakeholders.

Keywords: Africa, corporate social responsibility, developing countries, indigenous firms, Kenya, Tanzania

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468 Mathematical Modelling of Spatial Distribution of Covid-19 Outbreak Using Diffusion Equation

Authors: Kayode Oshinubi, Brice Kammegne, Jacques Demongeot

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The use of mathematical tools like Partial Differential Equations and Ordinary Differential Equations have become very important to predict the evolution of a viral disease in a population in order to take preventive and curative measures. In December 2019, a novel variety of Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) was identified in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China causing a severe and potentially fatal respiratory syndrome, i.e., COVID-19. Since then, it has become a pandemic declared by World Health Organization (WHO) on March 11, 2020 which has spread around the globe. A reaction-diffusion system is a mathematical model that describes the evolution of a phenomenon subjected to two processes: a reaction process in which different substances are transformed, and a diffusion process that causes a distribution in space. This article provides a mathematical study of the Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Recovered, and Vaccinated population model of the COVID-19 pandemic by the bias of reaction-diffusion equations. Both local and global asymptotic stability conditions for disease-free and endemic equilibria are determined using the Lyapunov function are considered and the endemic equilibrium point exists and is stable if it satisfies Routh–Hurwitz criteria. Also, adequate conditions for the existence and uniqueness of the solution of the model have been proved. We showed the spatial distribution of the model compartments when the basic reproduction rate $\mathcal{R}_0 < 1$ and $\mathcal{R}_0 > 1$ and sensitivity analysis is performed in order to determine the most sensitive parameters in the proposed model. We demonstrate the model's effectiveness by performing numerical simulations. We investigate the impact of vaccination and the significance of spatial distribution parameters in the spread of COVID-19. The findings indicate that reducing contact with an infected person and increasing the proportion of susceptible people who receive high-efficacy vaccination will lessen the burden of COVID-19 in the population. To the public health policymakers, we offered a better understanding of the COVID-19 management.

Keywords: COVID-19, SEIRV epidemic model, reaction-diffusion equation, basic reproduction number, vaccination, spatial distribution

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467 Assessing the Impacts of Vocational Training System in the Sudan: A Dynamic CGE Application

Authors: Zuhal Mohammed, Khalid Siddig, Harald Grethe

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Vocational training (VT) has been identified as a potential engine for achieving economic and social development, particularly in developing countries, while during the last two decades it is deemed as an essential determinant of human capital accumulation. Furthermore, it has a crucial role in reducing inequality, wage gaps and unemployment and in promoting skill decomposition. Government plays an important role in the human capital formulation by providing finance for education. In some countries, a large portion of the public educational investment is devoted to academic education (primary, secondary and tertiary). This is reflected in disproportionately increasing investment in various education sectors other than vocational education and VT. Nevertheless, the finance of VT system is not likely to increase or even remain at its existing level. This paper conducts an in-depth analysis to quantify the impacts of various options for expanding the public expenditure on education as well as vocational training in the Sudan. The study uses a recursive dynamic CGE modelling framework that accommodates VT and allows depicting the impact of various policies targeting the vocational training system with special focus on the agricultural sector. This allows for depicting the potential effects of various resource allocation policies not only among education versus non-education sectors, but also between the various types of education and training. Moreover, the study assesses the role of VT system in the economy through its influence on workers’ skill improvement and their movement across sectors. The results show that an increase in the public educational investment will lead to decrease the supply of low and high educated workers as results of increasing the school participation of the students in the short run. While in the medium to long run, this measure guides to increase the productivity of the labour and thus the growth rate of the gross domestic product (GDP). Therefore, the findings of the study provide Sudanese policymakers with needed information to help to adopt measures to reduce unemployment, enhance workers’ skill and ultimately improve livelihoods.

Keywords: vocational training, recursive dynamic CGE, skill level, labour market, economic growth, Sudan

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466 Performance Improvement of Long-Reach Optical Access Systems Using Hybrid Optical Amplifiers

Authors: Shreyas Srinivas Rangan, Jurgis Porins

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The internet traffic has increased exponentially due to the high demand for data rates by the users, and the constantly increasing metro networks and access networks are focused on improving the maximum transmit distance of the long-reach optical networks. One of the common methods to improve the maximum transmit distance of the long-reach optical networks at the component level is to use broadband optical amplifiers. The Erbium Doped Fiber Amplifier (EDFA) provides high amplification with low noise figure but due to the characteristics of EDFA, its operation is limited to C-band and L-band. In contrast, the Raman amplifier exhibits a wide amplification spectrum, and negative noise figure values can be achieved. To obtain such results, high powered pumping sources are required. Operating Raman amplifiers with such high-powered optical sources may cause fire hazards and it may damage the optical system. In this paper, we implement a hybrid optical amplifier configuration. EDFA and Raman amplifiers are used in this hybrid setup to combine the advantages of both EDFA and Raman amplifiers to improve the reach of the system. Using this setup, we analyze the maximum transmit distance of the network by obtaining a correlation diagram between the length of the single-mode fiber (SMF) and the Bit Error Rate (BER). This hybrid amplifier configuration is implemented in a Wavelength Division Multiplexing (WDM) system with a BER of 10⁻⁹ by using NRZ modulation format, and the gain uniformity noise ratio (signal-to-noise ratio (SNR)), the efficiency of the pumping source, and the optical signal gain efficiency of the amplifier are studied experimentally in a mathematical modelling environment. Numerical simulations were implemented in RSoft OptSim simulation software based on the nonlinear Schrödinger equation using the Split-Step method, the Fourier transform, and the Monte Carlo method for estimating BER.

Keywords: Raman amplifier, erbium doped fibre amplifier, bit error rate, hybrid optical amplifiers

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465 Using GIS for Assessment and Modelling of Oil Spill Risk at Vulnerable Coastal Resources: Of Misratah Coast, Libya

Authors: Abduladim Maitieg

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The oil manufacture is one of the main productive activities in Libya and has a massive infrastructure, including offshore drilling and exploration and wide oil export platform sites that located in coastal area. There is a threat to marine and coastal area of oil spills is greatest in those sites with a high spills comes from urban and industry, parallel to that, monitoring oil spills and risk emergency strategy is weakness, An approach for estimating a coastal resources vulnerability to oil spills is presented based on abundance, environmental and Scio-economic importance, distance to oil spill resources and oil risk likelihood. As many as 10 coastal resources were selected for oil spill assessment at the coast. This study aims to evaluate, determine and establish vulnerable coastal resource maps and estimating the rate of oil spill comes for different oil spill resources in Misratah marine environment. In the study area there are two type of oil spill resources, major oil resources come from offshore oil industries which are 96 km from the Coast and Loading/Uploading oil platform. However, the miner oil resources come from urban sewage pipes and fish ports. In order to analyse the collected database, the Geographic information system software has been used to identify oil spill location, to map oil tracks in front of study area, and developing seasonal vulnerable costal resources maps. This work shows that there is a differential distribution of the degree of vulnerability to oil spills along the coastline, with values ranging from high vulnerability and low vulnerability, and highlights the link between oil spill movement and coastal resources vulnerability. The results of assessment found most of costal freshwater spring sites are highly vulnerable to oil spill due to their location on the intertidal zone and their close to proximity to oil spills recourses such as Zreag coast. Furthermore, the Saltmarsh coastline is highly vulnerable to oil spill risk due to characterisation as it contains a nesting area of sea turtles and feeding places for migratory birds and the . Oil will reach the coast in winter season according to oil spill movement. Coastal tourist beaches in the north coast are considered as highly vulnerable to oil spill due to location and closeness to oil spill resources.

Keywords: coastal recourses vulnerability, oil spill trajectory, gnome software, Misratah coast- Libya, GIS

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464 Dietary Anion-Cation Balance of Grass and Net Acid-Base Excretion in Urine of Suckler Cows

Authors: H. Scholz, P. Kuehne, G. Heckenberger

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Dietary Anion-Cation Balance (DCAB) in grazing systems under German conditions has a tendency to decrease from May until September and often are measured DCAB lower than 100 meq per kg dry matter. Lower DCAB in grass feeding system can change the metabolic status of suckler cows and often are results in acidotic metabolism. Measurement of acid-base excretion in dairy cows has been proved to a method to evaluate the acid-base status. The hypothesis was that metabolic imbalances could be identified by urine measurement in suckler cows. The farm study was conducted during the grazing seasons 2017 and 2018 and involved 7 suckler cow farms in Germany. Suckler cows were grazing during the whole time of the investigation and had no access to other feeding components. Cows had free access to water and salt block and free access to minerals (loose). The dry matter of the grass was determined at 60 °C and were then analysed for energy and nutrient content and for the Dietary Cation-Anion Balance (DCAB). Urine was collected in 50 ml-glasses and analysed for net acid-base excretion (NSBA) and the concentration of creatinine and urea in the laboratory. Statistical analysis took place with ANOVA with fixed effects of farms (1-7), month (May until September), and number of lactations (1, 2, and ≥ 3 lactations) using SPSS Version 25.0 for windows. An alpha of 0.05 was used for all statistical tests. During the grazing periods of years 2017 and 2018, an average DCAB was observed in the grass of 167 meq per kg DM. A very high mean variation could be determined from -42 meq/kg to +439 meq/kg. Reference values in relation to DCAB were described between 150 meq and 400 meq per kg DM. It was found the high chlorine content with reduced potassium level led to this reduction in DCAB at the end of the grazing period. Between the DCAB of the grass and the NSBA in urine of suckler cows was a correlation according to PEARSON of r = 0.478 (p ≤ 0.001) or after SPEARMAN of r = 0.601 (p ≤ 0.001) observed. For the control of urine values of grazing suckler cows, the wide spread of the values poses a challenge of the interpretation, especially since the DCAB is unknown. The influence of several feeding components such as chlorine, sulfur, potassium, and sodium (ions for the DCAB) and dry matter feed intake during the grazing period of suckler cows should be taken into account in further research. The results obtained show that up a decrease in the DCAB is related to a decrease in NSBA in urine of suckler cows. Monitoring of metabolic disturbances should include analysis of urine, blood, milk, and ruminal fluid.

Keywords: dietary anion-cation balance, DCAB, net acid-base excretion, NSBA, suckler cow, grazing period

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463 Analysis of Ancient and Present Lightning Protection Systems of Large Heritage Stupas in Sri Lanka

Authors: J.R.S.S. Kumara, M.A.R.M. Fernando, S.Venkatesh, D.K. Jayaratne

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Protection of heritage monuments against lightning has become extremely important as far as their historical values are concerned. When such structures are large and tall, the risk of lightning initiated from both cloud and ground can be high. This paper presents a lightning risk analysis of three giant stupas in Anuradhapura era (fourth century BC onwards) in Sri Lanka. The three stupas are Jethawaaramaya (269-296 AD), Abayagiriya (88-76 BC) and Ruwanweliseya (161-137 BC), the third, fifth and seventh largest ancient structures in the world. These stupas are solid brick structures consisting of a base, a near hemispherical dome and a conical spire on the top. The ancient stupas constructed with a dielectric crystal on the top and connected to the ground through a conducting material, was considered as the hypothesis for their original lightning protection technique. However, at present, all three stupas are protected with Franklin rod type air termination systems located on top of the spire. First, a risk analysis was carried out according to IEC 62305 by considering the isokeraunic level of the area and the height of the stupas. Then the standard protective angle method and rolling sphere method were used to locate the possible touching points on the surface of the stupas. The study was extended to estimate the critical current which could strike on the unprotected areas of the stupas. The equations proposed by (Uman 2001) and (Cooray2007) were used to find the striking distances. A modified version of rolling sphere method was also applied to see the effects of upward leaders. All these studies were carried out for two scenarios: with original (i.e. ancient) lightning protection system and with present (i.e. new) air termination system. The field distribution on the surface of the stupa in the presence of a downward leader was obtained using finite element based commercial software COMSOL Multiphysics for further investigations of lightning risks. The obtained results were analyzed and compared each other to evaluate the performance of ancient and new lightning protection methods and identify suitable methods to design lightning protection systems for stupas. According to IEC standards, all three stupas with new and ancient lightning protection system has Level IV protection as per protection angle method. However according to rolling sphere method applied with Uman’s equation protection level is III. The same method applied with Cooray’s equation always shows a high risk with respect to Uman’s equation. It was found that there is a risk of lightning strikes on the dome and square chamber of the stupa, and the corresponding critical current values were different with respect to the equations used in the rolling sphere method and modified rolling sphere method.

Keywords: Stupa, heritage, lightning protection, rolling sphere method, protection level

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462 A Dual-Mode Infinite Horizon Predictive Control Algorithm for Load Tracking in PUSPATI TRIGA Reactor

Authors: Mohd Sabri Minhat, Nurul Adilla Mohd Subha

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The PUSPATI TRIGA Reactor (RTP), Malaysia reached its first criticality on June 28, 1982, with power capacity 1MW thermal. The Feedback Control Algorithm (FCA) which is conventional Proportional-Integral (PI) controller, was used for present power control method to control fission process in RTP. It is important to ensure the core power always stable and follows load tracking within acceptable steady-state error and minimum settling time to reach steady-state power. At this time, the system could be considered not well-posed with power tracking performance. However, there is still potential to improve current performance by developing next generation of a novel design nuclear core power control. In this paper, the dual-mode predictions which are proposed in modelling Optimal Model Predictive Control (OMPC), is presented in a state-space model to control the core power. The model for core power control was based on mathematical models of the reactor core, OMPC, and control rods selection algorithm. The mathematical models of the reactor core were based on neutronic models, thermal hydraulic models, and reactivity models. The dual-mode prediction in OMPC for transient and terminal modes was based on the implementation of a Linear Quadratic Regulator (LQR) in designing the core power control. The combination of dual-mode prediction and Lyapunov which deal with summations in cost function over an infinite horizon is intended to eliminate some of the fundamental weaknesses related to MPC. This paper shows the behaviour of OMPC to deal with tracking, regulation problem, disturbance rejection and caters for parameter uncertainty. The comparison of both tracking and regulating performance is analysed between the conventional controller and OMPC by numerical simulations. In conclusion, the proposed OMPC has shown significant performance in load tracking and regulating core power for nuclear reactor with guarantee stabilising in the closed-loop.

Keywords: core power control, dual-mode prediction, load tracking, optimal model predictive control

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461 Morphological Process of Villi Detachment Assessed by Computer-Assisted 3D Reconstruction of Intestinal Crypt from Serial Ultrathin Sections of Rat Duodenum Mucosa

Authors: Lise P. Labéjof, Ivna Mororó, Raquel G. Bastos, Maria Isabel G. Severo, Arno H. de Oliveira

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This work presents an alternative mode of intestine mucosa renewal that may allow to better understand the total loss of villi after irradiation. It was tested a morphological method of 3d reconstruction using micrographs of serial sections of rat duodenum. We used hundreds of sections of each specimen of duodenum placed on glass slides and examined under a light microscope. Those containing the detachment, approximately a dozen, were chosen for observation under a transmission electron microscope (TEM). Each of these sections was glued on a block of epon resin and recut into a hundred of 60 nm-thick sections. Ribbons of these ultrathin sections were distributed on a series of copper grids in the same order of appearance than during the process of microstomia. They were then stained by solutions of uranyl and lead salts and observed under a TEM. The sections were pictured and the electron micrographs showing signs of cells detachment were transferred into two softwares, ImageJ to align the cellular structures and Reconstruct to realize the 3d reconstruction. It has been detected epithelial cells that exhibited all signs of programmed cell death and localized at the villus-crypt junction. Their nucleus was irregular in shape with a condensed chromatin in clumps. Their cytoplasm was darker than that of neighboring cells, containing many swollen mitochondria. In some places of the sections, we could see intercellular spaces enlarged by the presence of shrunk cells which displayed a plasma membrane with an irregular shape in thermowell as if the cell interdigitations would distant from each other. The three-dimensional reconstruction of the crypts has allowed observe gradual loss of intercellular contacts of crypt cells in the longitudinal plan of the duodenal mucosa. In the transverse direction, there was a gradual increase of the intercellular space as if these cells moved away from one another. This observation allows assume that the gradual remoteness of the cells at the villus-crypt junction is the beginning of the mucosa detachment. Thus, the shrinking of cells due to apoptosis is the way that they detach from the mucosa and progressively the villi also. These results are in agreement with our initial hypothesis and thus have demonstrated that the villi become detached from the mucosa at the villus-crypt junction by the programmed cell death process. This type of loss of entire villus helps explain the rapid denudation of the intestinal mucosa in case of irradiation.

Keywords: 3dr, transmission electron microscopy, ionizing radiations, rat small intestine, apoptosis

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460 Hand Motion Tracking as a Human Computer Interation for People with Cerebral Palsy

Authors: Ana Teixeira, Joao Orvalho

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This paper describes experiments using Scratch games, to check the feasibility of employing cerebral palsy users gestures as an alternative of interaction with a computer carried out by students of Master Human Computer Interaction (HCI) of IPC Coimbra. The main focus of this work is to study the usability of a Web Camera as a motion tracking device to achieve a virtual human-computer interaction used by individuals with CP. An approach for Human-computer Interaction (HCI) is present, where individuals with cerebral palsy react and interact with a scratch game through the use of a webcam as an external interaction device. Motion tracking interaction is an emerging technology that is becoming more useful, effective and affordable. However, it raises new questions from the HCI viewpoint, for example, which environments are most suitable for interaction by users with disabilities. In our case, we put emphasis on the accessibility and usability aspects of such interaction devices to meet the special needs of people with disabilities, and specifically people with CP. Despite the fact that our work has just started, preliminary results show that, in general, computer vision interaction systems are very useful; in some cases, these systems are the only way by which some people can interact with a computer. The purpose of the experiments was to verify two hypothesis: 1) people with cerebral palsy can interact with a computer using their natural gestures, 2) scratch games can be a research tool in experiments with disabled young people. A game in Scratch with three levels is created to be played through the use of a webcam. This device permits the detection of certain key points of the user’s body, which allows to assume the head, arms and specially the hands as the most important aspects of recognition. Tests with 5 individuals of different age and gender were made throughout 3 days through periods of 30 minutes with each participant. For a more extensive and reliable statistical analysis, the number of both participants and repetitions in further investigations should be increased. However, already at this stage of research, it is possible to draw some conclusions. First, and the most important, is that simple scratch games on the computer can be a research tool that allows investigating the interaction with computer performed by young persons with CP using intentional gestures. Measurements performed with the assistance of games are attractive for young disabled users. The second important conclusion is that they are able to play scratch games using their gestures. Therefore, the proposed interaction method is promising for them as a human-computer interface. In the future, we plan to include the development of multimodal interfaces that combine various computer vision devices with other input devices improvements in the existing systems to accommodate more the special needs of individuals, in addition, to perform experiments on a larger number of participants.

Keywords: motion tracking, cerebral palsy, rehabilitation, HCI

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459 Investigation of Heat Conduction through Particulate Filled Polymer Composite

Authors: Alok Agrawal, Alok Satapathy

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In this paper, an attempt to determine the effective thermal conductivity (keff) of particulate filled polymer composites using finite element method (FEM) a powerful computational technique is made. A commercially available finite element package ANSYS is used for this numerical analysis. Three-dimensional spheres-in-cube lattice array models are constructed to simulate the microstructures of micro-sized particulate filled polymer composites with filler content ranging from 2.35 to 26.8 vol %. Based on the temperature profiles across the composite body, the keff of each composition is estimated theoretically by FEM. Composites with similar filler contents are than fabricated using compression molding technique by reinforcing micro-sized aluminium oxide (Al2O3) in polypropylene (PP) resin. Thermal conductivities of these composite samples are measured according to the ASTM standard E-1530 by using the Unitherm™ Model 2022 tester, which operates on the double guarded heat flow principle. The experimentally measured conductivity values are compared with the numerical values and also with those obtained from existing empirical models. This comparison reveals that the FEM simulated values are found to be in reasonable good agreement with the experimental data. Values obtained from the theoretical model proposed by the authors are also found to be in even closer approximation with the measured values within percolation limit. Further, this study shows that there is gradual enhancement in the conductivity of PP resin with increase in filler percentage and thereby its heat conduction capability is improved. It is noticed that with addition of 26.8 vol % of filler, the keff of composite increases to around 6.3 times that of neat PP. This study validates the proposed model for PP-Al2O3 composite system and proves that finite element analysis can be an excellent methodology for such investigations. With such improved heat conduction ability, these composites can find potential applications in micro-electronics, printed circuit boards, encapsulations etc.

Keywords: analytical modelling, effective thermal conductivity, finite element method, polymer matrix composite

Procedia PDF Downloads 317
458 An Examination of Factors Leading to Knowledge-Sharing Behavior of Sri Lankan Bankers

Authors: Eranga N. Somaratna, Pradeep Dharmadasa

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In the current competitive environment, the factors leading to organization success are not limited to the investment of capital, labor, and raw material, but in the ability of knowledge innovation from all the members of an organization. However, knowledge on its own cannot provide organizations with its promised benefits unless it is shared, as organizations are increasingly experiencing unsuccessful knowledge sharing efforts. In such a backdrop and due to the dearth of research in this area in the South Asian context, the study set forth to develop an understanding of the factors that influence knowledge-sharing behavior within an organizational framework, using widely accepted social psychology theories. The purpose of the article is to discover the determinants of knowledge-sharing intention and actual knowledge sharing behaviors of bank employees in Sri Lanka using an aggregate model. Knowledge sharing intentions are widely discussed in literature through the application of Ajzen’s Theory of planned behavior (TPB) and Theory of Social Capital (SCT) separately. Both the theories are rich to explain knowledge sharing intention of workers with limitations. The study, therefore, combines the TPB with SCT in developing its conceptual model. Data were collected through a self-administrated paper-based questionnaire of 199 bank managers from 6 public and private banks of Sri Lanka and analyzed the suggested research model using Structural Equation Modelling (SEM). The study supported six of the nine hypotheses, where Attitudes toward Knowledge Sharing Behavior, Perceived Behavioral Control, Trust, Anticipated Reciprocal Relationships and Actual Knowledge Sharing Behavior were supported while Organizational Climate, Sense of Self-Worth and Anticipated Extrinsic Rewards were not, in determining knowledge sharing intentions. Furthermore, the study investigated the effect of demographic factors of bankers (age, gender, position, education, and experiences) to the actual knowledge sharing behavior. However, findings should be confirmed using a larger sample, as well as through cross-sectional studies. The results highlight the need for theoreticians to combined TPB and SCT in understanding knowledge workers’ intentions and actual behavior; and for practitioners to focus on the perceptions and needs of the individual knowledge worker and the need to cultivate a culture of sharing knowledge in the organization for their mutual benefit.

Keywords: banks, employees behavior, knowledge management, knowledge sharing

Procedia PDF Downloads 126
457 Democratic Information Behavior of Social Scientists and Policy Makers in India

Authors: Mallikarjun Vaddenkeri, Suresh Jange

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This research study reports results of information behaviour by members of faculty and research scholars of various departments of social sciences working at universities with a sample of 300 and Members of Legislative Assembly and Council with 216 samples in Karnataka State, India. The results reveal that 29.3% and 20.3% of Social Scientists indicated medium and high level of awareness of primary sources - Primary Journals are found to be at scale level 5 and 9. The usage of primary journals by social scientists is found to be 28% at level 4, 24% of the respondent’s opined use of primary Conference Proceedings at level 5 as medium level of use. Similarly, the use of Secondary Information Sources at scale 8 and 9 particularly in case of Dictionaries (31.0% and 5.0%), Encyclopaedias (22.3% and 6.3%), Indexing Periodicals (7.0% and 15.3%) and Abstracting Periodicals (5.7% and 20.7%). For searching information from Journals Literature available in CD-ROM version, Keywords (43.7%) followed by Keywords with logical operators (39.7%) have been used for finding the required information. Statistical inference reveals rejection of null hypothesis `there is no association between designation of the respondents and awareness of primary information resources’. On the other hand, educational qualification possessed by Legislative members, more than half of them possess graduate degree as their academic qualification (57.4%) and just 16.7% of the respondents possess graduate degree while only 26.8% of the respondents possess degree in law and just 1.8% possess post-graduate degree in law. About 42.6% indicated the importance of information required to discharge their duties and responsibilities as a Policy Maker in the scale 8, as a Scholar (27.8%) on a scale 6, as a politician (64.8%) on a scale 10 and as a Councillor (51.9%) on a scale 8. The most preferred information agencies/sources very often contacted for obtaining useful information are by means of contacting the people of Karnataka State Legislative Library, listening Radio programmes, viewing Television programmes and reading the newspapers. The methods adopted for obtaining needed information quite often by means of sending their assistants to libraries to gather information (35.2%) and personally visiting the information source (64.8%). The null hypotheses `There is no association between Members of Legislature and Opinion on the usefulness of the resources of the Karnataka State Legislature Library’ is accepted using F ANOVA test. The studies conclude with a note revamp the existing library system in its structure and adopt latest technologies and educate and train social scientists and Legislators in using these resources in the interest of academic, government policies and decision making of the country.

Keywords: information use behaviour, government information, searching behaviour, policy makers

Procedia PDF Downloads 130
456 Modelling Forest Fire Risk in the Goaso Forest Area of Ghana: Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Systems Approach

Authors: Bernard Kumi-Boateng, Issaka Yakubu

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Forest fire, which is, an uncontrolled fire occurring in nature has become a major concern for the Forestry Commission of Ghana (FCG). The forest fires in Ghana usually result in massive destruction and take a long time for the firefighting crews to gain control over the situation. In order to assess the effect of forest fire at local scale, it is important to consider the role fire plays in vegetation composition, biodiversity, soil erosion, and the hydrological cycle. The occurrence, frequency and behaviour of forest fires vary over time and space, primarily as a result of the complicated influences of changes in land use, vegetation composition, fire suppression efforts, and other indigenous factors. One of the forest zones in Ghana with a high level of vegetation stress is the Goaso forest area. The area has experienced changes in its traditional land use such as hunting, charcoal production, inefficient logging practices and rural abandonment patterns. These factors which were identified as major causes of forest fire, have recently modified the incidence of fire in the Goaso area. In spite of the incidence of forest fires in the Goaso forest area, most of the forest services do not provide a cartographic representation of the burned areas. This has resulted in significant amount of information being required by the firefighting unit of the FCG to understand fire risk factors and its spatial effects. This study uses Remote Sensing and Geographic Information System techniques to develop a fire risk hazard model using the Goaso Forest Area (GFA) as a case study. From the results of the study, natural forest, agricultural lands and plantation cover types were identified as the major fuel contributing loads. However, water bodies, roads and settlements were identified as minor fuel contributing loads. Based on the major and minor fuel contributing loads, a forest fire risk hazard model with a reasonable accuracy has been developed for the GFA to assist decision making.

Keywords: forest, GIS, remote sensing, Goaso

Procedia PDF Downloads 443
455 CFD-DEM Modelling of Liquid Fluidizations of Ellipsoidal Particles

Authors: Esmaeil Abbaszadeh Molaei, Zongyan Zhou, Aibing Yu

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The applications of liquid fluidizations have been increased in many parts of industries such as particle classification, backwashing of granular filters, crystal growth, leaching and washing, and bioreactors due to high-efficient liquid–solid contact, favorable mass and heat transfer, high operation flexibilities, and reduced back mixing of phases. In most of these multiphase operations the particles properties, i.e. size, density, and shape, may change during the process because of attrition, coalescence or chemical reactions. Previous studies, either experimentally or numerically, mainly have focused on studies of liquid-solid fluidized beds containing spherical particles; however, the role of particle shape on the hydrodynamics of liquid fluidized beds is still not well-known. A three-dimensional Discrete Element Model (DEM) and Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) are coupled to study the influence of particles shape on particles and liquid flow patterns in liquid-solid fluidized beds. In the simulations, ellipsoid particles are used to study the shape factor since they can represent a wide range of particles shape from oblate and sphere to prolate shape particles. Different particle shapes from oblate (disk shape) to elongated particles (rod shape) are selected to investigate the effect of aspect ratio on different flow characteristics such as general particles and liquid flow pattern, pressure drop, and particles orientation. First, the model is verified based on experimental observations, then further detail analyses are made. It was found that spherical particles showed a uniform particle distribution in the bed, which resulted in uniform pressure drop along the bed height. However for particles with aspect ratios less than one (disk-shape), some particles were carried into the freeboard region, and the interface between the bed and freeboard was not easy to be determined. A few particle also intended to leave the bed. On the other hand, prolate particles showed different behaviour in the bed. They caused unstable interface and some flow channeling was observed for low liquid velocities. Because of the non-uniform particles flow pattern for particles with aspect ratios lower (oblate) and more (prolate) than one, the pressure drop distribution in the bed was not observed as uniform as what was found for spherical particles.

Keywords: CFD, DEM, ellipsoid, fluidization, multiphase flow, non-spherical, simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 300
454 Flood Hazard Assessment and Land Cover Dynamics of the Orai Khola Watershed, Bardiya, Nepal

Authors: Loonibha Manandhar, Rajendra Bhandari, Kumud Raj Kafle

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Nepal’s Terai region is a part of the Ganges river basin which is one of the most disaster-prone areas of the world, with recurrent monsoon flooding causing millions in damage and the death and displacement of hundreds of people and households every year. The vulnerability of human settlements to natural disasters such as floods is increasing, and mapping changes in land use practices and hydro-geological parameters is essential in developing resilient communities and strong disaster management policies. The objective of this study was to develop a flood hazard zonation map of Orai Khola watershed and map the decadal land use/land cover dynamics of the watershed. The watershed area was delineated using SRTM DEM, and LANDSAT images were classified into five land use classes (forest, grassland, sediment and bare land, settlement area and cropland, and water body) using pixel-based semi-automated supervised maximum likelihood classification. Decadal changes in each class were then quantified using spatial modelling. Flood hazard mapping was performed by assigning weights to factors slope, rainfall distribution, distance from the river and land use/land cover on the basis of their estimated influence in causing flood hazard and performing weighed overlay analysis to identify areas that are highly vulnerable. The forest and grassland coverage increased by 11.53 km² (3.8%) and 1.43 km² (0.47%) from 1996 to 2016. The sediment and bare land areas decreased by 12.45 km² (4.12%) from 1996 to 2016 whereas settlement and cropland areas showed a consistent increase to 14.22 km² (4.7%). Waterbody coverage also increased to 0.3 km² (0.09%) from 1996-2016. 1.27% (3.65 km²) of total watershed area was categorized into very low hazard zone, 20.94% (60.31 km²) area into low hazard zone, 37.59% (108.3 km²) area into moderate hazard zone, 29.25% (84.27 km²) area into high hazard zone and 31 villages which comprised 10.95% (31.55 km²) were categorized into high hazard zone area.

Keywords: flood hazard, land use/land cover, Orai river, supervised maximum likelihood classification, weighed overlay analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 335
453 Filtering Momentum Life Cycles, Price Acceleration Signals and Trend Reversals for Stocks, Credit Derivatives and Bonds

Authors: Periklis Brakatsoulas

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Recent empirical research shows a growing interest in investment decision-making under market anomalies that contradict the rational paradigm. Momentum is undoubtedly one of the most robust anomalies in the empirical asset pricing research and remains surprisingly lucrative ever since first documented. Although predominantly phenomena identified across equities, momentum premia are now evident across various asset classes. Yet few many attempts are made so far to provide traders a diversified portfolio of strategies across different assets and markets. Moreover, literature focuses on patterns from past returns rather than mechanisms to signal future price directions prior to momentum runs. The aim of this paper is to develop a diversified portfolio approach to price distortion signals using daily position data on stocks, credit derivatives, and bonds. An algorithm allocates assets periodically, and new investment tactics take over upon price momentum signals and across different ranking groups. We focus on momentum life cycles, trend reversals, and price acceleration signals. The main effort here concentrates on the density, time span and maturity of momentum phenomena to identify consistent patterns over time and measure the predictive power of buy-sell signals generated by these anomalies. To tackle this, we propose a two-stage modelling process. First, we generate forecasts on core macroeconomic drivers. Secondly, satellite models generate market risk forecasts using the core driver projections generated at the first stage as input. Moreover, using a combination of the ARFIMA and FIGARCH models, we examine the dependence of consecutive observations across time and portfolio assets since long memory behavior in volatilities of one market appears to trigger persistent volatility patterns across other markets. We believe that this is the first work that employs evidence of volatility transmissions among derivatives, equities, and bonds to identify momentum life cycle patterns.

Keywords: forecasting, long memory, momentum, returns

Procedia PDF Downloads 96
452 Cultural Statistics in Governance: A Comparative Analysis between the UK and Finland

Authors: Sandra Toledo

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There is an increasing tendency in governments for a more evidence-based policy-making and a stricter auditing of public spheres. Especially when budgets are tight, and taxpayers demand a bigger scrutiny over the use of the available resources, statistics and numbers appeared as an effective tool to produce data that supports investments done, as well as evaluating public policy performance. This pressure has not exempted the cultural and art fields. Finland like the rest of Nordic countries has kept its principles from the welfare state, whilst UK seems to be going towards the opposite direction, relaying more and more in private sectors and foundations, as the state folds back. The boom of the creative industries along with a managerial trend introduced by Tatcher in the UK brought, as a result, a commodification of arts within a market logic, where sponsorship and commercial viability were the keynotes. Finland on its part, in spite of following a more protectionist approach of arts, seems to be heading in a similar direction. Additionally, there is an international growing interest in the application of cultural participation studies and the comparability between countries in their results. Nonetheless, the standardization in the application of cultural surveys has not happened yet. Not only there are differences in the application of these type of surveys in terms of time and frequency, but also regarding those conducting them. Therefore, one hypothesis considered in this research is that behind the differences between countries in the application of cultural surveys, production and utilization of cultural statistics is the cultural policy model adopted by the government. In other words, the main goal of this research is to answer the following: What are the differences and similarities between Finland and the UK regarding the role cultural surveys have in cultural policy making? Along with other secondary questions such as: How does the cultural policy model followed by each country influence the role of cultural surveys in cultural policy making? and what are the differences at the local level? In order to answer these questions, strategic cultural policy documents and interviews with key informants will be used and analyzed as source data, using content analysis methods. Cultural statistics per se will not be compared, but instead their use as instruments of governing, and its relation to the cultural policy model. Aspects such as execution of cultural surveys, funding, periodicity, and use of statistics in formal reports and publications, will be studied in the written documents while in the interviews other elements such as perceptions from those involved in collecting cultural statistics or policy making, distribution of tasks and hierarchies among cultural and statistical institutions, and a general view will be the target. A limitation identified beforehand and that it is expected to encounter throughout the process is the language barrier in the case of Finland when it comes to official documents, which will be tackled by interviewing the authors of such papers and choosing key extract of them for translation.

Keywords: Finland, cultural statistics, cultural surveys, United Kingdom

Procedia PDF Downloads 224
451 Simplified Modelling of Visco-Elastic Fluids for Use in Recoil Damping Systems

Authors: Prasad Pokkunuri

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Visco-elastic materials combine the stress response properties of both solids and fluids and have found use in a variety of damping applications – both vibrational and acoustic. Defense and automotive applications, in particular, are subject to high impact and shock loading – for example: aircraft landing gear, firearms, and shock absorbers. Field responsive fluids – a class of smart materials – are the preferred choice of energy absorbents because of their controllability. These fluids’ stress response can be controlled by the application of a magnetic or electric field, in a closed loop. Their rheological properties – elasticity, plasticity, and viscosity – can be varied all the way from that of a liquid such as water to a hard solid. This work presents a simplified model to study the impulse response behavior of such fluids for use in recoil damping systems. The well-known Burger’s equation, in conjunction with various visco-elastic constitutive models, is used to represent fluid behavior. The Kelvin-Voigt, Upper Convected Maxwell (UCM), and Oldroyd-B constitutive models are implemented in this study. Using these models in a one-dimensional framework eliminates additional complexities due to geometry, pressure, body forces, and other source terms. Using a finite difference formulation to numerically solve the governing equation(s), the response to an initial impulse is studied. The disturbance is confined within the problem domain with no-inflow, no-outflow boundary conditions, and its decay characteristics studied. Visco-elastic fluids typically involve a time-dependent stress relaxation which gives rise to interesting behavior when subjected to an impulsive load. For particular values of viscous damping and elastic modulus, the fluid settles into a stable oscillatory state, absorbing and releasing energy without much decay. The simplified formulation enables a comprehensive study of different modes of system response, by varying relevant parameters. Using the insights gained from this study, extension to a more detailed multi-dimensional model is considered.

Keywords: Burgers Equation, Impulse Response, Recoil Damping Systems, Visco-elastic Fluids

Procedia PDF Downloads 284
450 Utilizing Artificial Intelligence to Predict Post Operative Atrial Fibrillation in Non-Cardiac Transplant

Authors: Alexander Heckman, Rohan Goswami, Zachi Attia, Paul Friedman, Peter Noseworthy, Demilade Adedinsewo, Pablo Moreno-Franco, Rickey Carter, Tathagat Narula

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Background: Postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) is associated with adverse health consequences, higher costs, and longer hospital stays. Utilizing existing predictive models that rely on clinical variables and circulating biomarkers, multiple societies have published recommendations on the treatment and prevention of POAF. Although reasonably practical, there is room for improvement and automation to help individualize treatment strategies and reduce associated complications. Methods and Results: In this retrospective cohort study of solid organ transplant recipients, we evaluated the diagnostic utility of a previously developed AI-based ECG prediction for silent AF on the development of POAF within 30 days of transplant. A total of 2261 non-cardiac transplant patients without a preexisting diagnosis of AF were found to have a 5.8% (133/2261) incidence of POAF. While there were no apparent sex differences in POAF incidence (5.8% males vs. 6.0% females, p=.80), there were differences by race and ethnicity (p<0.001 and 0.035, respectively). The incidence in white transplanted patients was 7.2% (117/1628), whereas the incidence in black patients was 1.4% (6/430). Lung transplant recipients had the highest incidence of postoperative AF (17.4%, 37/213), followed by liver (5.6%, 56/1002) and kidney (3.6%, 32/895) recipients. The AUROC in the sample was 0.62 (95% CI: 0.58-0.67). The relatively low discrimination may result from undiagnosed AF in the sample. In particular, 1,177 patients had at least 1 AI-ECG screen for AF pre-transplant above .10, a value slightly higher than the published threshold of 0.08. The incidence of POAF in the 1104 patients without an elevated prediction pre-transplant was lower (3.7% vs. 8.0%; p<0.001). While this supported the hypothesis that potentially undiagnosed AF may have contributed to the diagnosis of POAF, the utility of the existing AI-ECG screening algorithm remained modest. When the prediction for POAF was made using the first postoperative ECG in the sample without an elevated screen pre-transplant (n=1084 on account of n=20 missing postoperative ECG), the AUROC was 0.66 (95% CI: 0.57-0.75). While this discrimination is relatively low, at a threshold of 0.08, the AI-ECG algorithm had a 98% (95% CI: 97 – 99%) negative predictive value at a sensitivity of 66% (95% CI: 49-80%). Conclusions: This study's principal finding is that the incidence of POAF is rare, and a considerable fraction of the POAF cases may be latent and undiagnosed. The high negative predictive value of AI-ECG screening suggests utility for prioritizing monitoring and evaluation on transplant patients with a positive AI-ECG screening. Further development and refinement of a post-transplant-specific algorithm may be warranted further to enhance the diagnostic yield of the ECG-based screening.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, atrial fibrillation, cardiology, transplant, medicine, ECG, machine learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 121
449 Adsorption: A Decision Maker in the Photocatalytic Degradation of Phenol on Co-Catalysts Doped TiO₂

Authors: Dileep Maarisetty, Janaki Komandur, Saroj S. Baral

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In the current work, photocatalytic degradation of phenol was carried both in UV and visible light to find the slowest step that is limiting the rate of photo-degradation process. Characterization such as XRD, SEM, FT-IR, TEM, XPS, UV-DRS, PL, BET, UPS, ESR and zeta potential experiments were conducted to assess the credibility of catalysts in boosting the photocatalytic activity. To explore the synergy, TiO₂ was doped with graphene and alumina. The orbital hybridization with alumina doping (mediated by graphene) resulted in higher electron transfer from the conduction band of TiO₂ to alumina surface where oxygen reduction reactions (ORR) occur. Besides, the doping of alumina and graphene introduced defects into Ti lattice and helped in improving the adsorptive properties of modified photo-catalyst. Results showed that these defects promoted the oxygen reduction reactions (ORR) on the catalyst’s surface. ORR activity aims at producing reactive oxygen species (ROS). These ROS species oxidizes the phenol molecules which is adsorbed on the surface of photo-catalysts, thereby driving the photocatalytic reactions. Since mass transfer is considered as rate limiting step, various mathematical models were applied to the experimental data to probe the best fit. By varying the parameters, it was found that intra-particle diffusion was the slowest step in the degradation process. Lagergren model gave the best R² values indicating the nature of rate kinetics. Similarly, different adsorption isotherms were employed and realized that Langmuir isotherm suits the best with tremendous increase in uptake capacity (mg/g) of TiO₂-rGO-Al₂O₃ as compared undoped TiO₂. This further assisted in higher adsorption of phenol molecules. The results obtained from experimental, kinetic modelling and adsorption isotherms; it is concluded that apart from changes in surface, optoelectronic and morphological properties that enhanced the photocatalytic activity, the intra-particle diffusion within the catalyst’s pores serve as rate-limiting step in deciding the fate of photo-catalytic degradation of phenol.

Keywords: ORR, phenol degradation, photo-catalyst, rate kinetics

Procedia PDF Downloads 136
448 Auditory Perception of Frequency-Modulated Sweeps and Reading Difficulties in Chinese

Authors: Hsiao-Lan Wang, Chun-Han Chiang, I-Chen Chen

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In Chinese Mandarin, lexical tones play an important role to provide contrasts in word meaning. They are pitch patterns and can be quantified as the fundamental frequency (F0), expressed in Hertz (Hz). In this study, we aim to investigate the influence of frequency discrimination on Chinese children’s performance of reading abilities. Fifty participants from 3rd to 4th grades, including 24 children with reading difficulties and 26 age-matched children, were examined. A serial of cognitive, language, reading and psychoacoustic tests were administrated. Magnetoencephalography (MEG) was also employed to study children’s auditory sensitivity. In the present study, auditory frequency was measured through slide-up pitch, slide-down pitch and frequency-modulated tone. The results showed that children with Chinese reading difficulties were significantly poor at phonological awareness and auditory discrimination for the identification of frequency-modulated tone. Chinese children’s character reading performance was significantly related to lexical tone awareness and auditory perception of frequency-modulated tone. In our MEG measure, we compared the mismatch negativity (MMNm), from 100 to 200 ms, in two groups. There were no significant differences between groups during the perceptual discrimination of standard sounds, fast-up and fast-down frequencies. However, the data revealed significant cluster differences between groups in the slow-up and slow-down frequencies discrimination. In the slow-up stimulus, the cluster demonstrated an upward field map at 106-151 ms (p < .001) with a strong peak time at 127ms. The source analyses of two dipole model and localization resolution model (CLARA) from 100 to 200 ms both indicated a strong source from the left temporal area with 45.845% residual variance. Similar results were found in the slow-down stimulus with a larger upward current at 110-142 ms (p < 0.05) and a peak time at 117 ms in the left temporal area (47.857% residual variance). In short, we found a significant group difference in the MMNm while children processed frequency-modulated tones with slow temporal changes. The findings may imply that perception of sound frequency signals with slower temporal modulations was related to reading and language development in Chinese. Our study may also support the recent hypothesis of underlying non-verbal auditory temporal deficits accounting for the difficulties in literacy development seen developmental dyslexia.

Keywords: Chinese Mandarin, frequency modulation sweeps, magnetoencephalography, mismatch negativity, reading difficulties

Procedia PDF Downloads 565
447 Drug Design Modelling and Molecular Virtual Simulation of an Optimized BSA-Based Nanoparticle Formulation Loaded with Di-Berberine Sulfate Acid Salt

Authors: Eman M. Sarhan, Doaa A. Ghareeb, Gabriella Ortore, Amr A. Amara, Mohamed M. El-Sayed

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Drug salting and nanoparticle-based drug delivery formulations are considered to be an effective means for rendering the hydrophobic drugs’ nano-scale dispersion in aqueous media, and thus circumventing the pitfalls of their poor solubility as well as enhancing their membrane permeability. The current study aims to increase the bioavailability of quaternary ammonium berberine through acid salting and biodegradable bovine serum albumin (BSA)-based nanoparticulate drug formulation. Berberine hydroxide (BBR-OH) that was chemically synthesized by alkalization of the commercially available berberine hydrochloride (BBR-HCl) was then acidified to get Di-berberine sulfate (BBR)₂SO₄. The purified crystals were spectrally characterized. The desolvation technique was optimized for the preparation of size-controlled BSA-BBR-HCl, BSA-BBR-OH, and BSA-(BBR)₂SO₄ nanoparticles. Particle size, zeta potential, drug release, encapsulation efficiency, Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR), tandem MS-MS spectroscopy, energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDX), scanning and transmitting electron microscopic examination (SEM, TEM), in vitro bioactivity, and in silico drug-polymer interaction were determined. BSA (PDB ID; 4OR0) protonation state at different pH values was predicted using Amber12 molecular dynamic simulation. Then blind docking was performed using Lamarkian genetic algorithm (LGA) through AutoDock4.2 software. Results proved the purity and the size-controlled synthesis of berberine-BSA-nanoparticles. The possible binding poses, hydrophobic and hydrophilic interactions of berberine on BSA at different pH values were predicted. Antioxidant, anti-hemolytic, and cell differentiated ability of tested drugs and their nano-formulations were evaluated. Thus, drug salting and the potentially effective albumin berberine nanoparticle formulations can be successfully developed using a well-optimized desolvation technique and exhibiting better in vitro cellular bioavailability.

Keywords: berberine, BSA, BBR-OH, BBR-HCl, BSA-BBR-HCl, BSA-BBR-OH, (BBR)₂SO₄, BSA-(BBR)₂SO₄, FTIR, AutoDock4.2 Software, Lamarkian genetic algorithm, SEM, TEM, EDX

Procedia PDF Downloads 164
446 Investigation of the Possible Correlation of Earthquakes with a Red Tide Occurrence in the Persian Gulf and Oman Sea

Authors: Hadis Hosseinzadehnaseri

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The red tide is a kind of algae blooming, caused different problems at different sizes for the human life and the environment, so it has become one of the serious global concerns in the field of Oceanography in few recent decades. This phenomenon has affected on Iran's water, especially the Persian Gulf's since last few years. Collecting data associated with this phenomenon and comparison in different parts of the world is significant as a practical way to study this phenomenon and controlling it. Effective factors to occur this phenomenon lead to the increase of the required nutrients of the algae or provide a good environment for blooming. In this study, we examined the probability of relation between the earthquake and the harmful algae blooming in the Persian Gulf's water through comparing the earthquake data and the recorded Red tides. On the one hand, earthquakes can cause changes in seawater temperature that is effective in creating a suitable environment and the other hand, it increases the possibility of water nutrients, and its transportation in the seabed, so it can play a principal role in the development of red tide occurrence. Comparing the distribution spatial-temporal maps of the earthquakes and deadly red tides in the Persian Gulf and Oman Sea, confirms the hypothesis, why there is a meaningful relation between these two distributions. Comparing the number of earthquakes around the world as well as the number of the red tides in many parts of the world indicates the correlation between these two issues. This subject due to numerous earthquakes, especially in recent years and in the southern part of the country should be considered as a warning to the possibility of re-occurrence of a critical state of red tide in a large scale, why in the year 2008, the number of recorded earthquakes have been more than near years. In this year, the distribution value of the red tide phenomenon in the Persian Gulf got measured about 140,000 square kilometers and entire Oman Sea, with 10 months Survival in the area, which is considered as a record among the occurred algae blooming in the world. In this paper, we could obtain a logical and reasonable relation between the earthquake frequency and this phenomenon occurrence, through compilation of statistics relating to the earthquakes in the southern Iran, from 2000 to the end of the first half of 2013 and also collecting statistics on the occurrence of red tide in the region as well as examination of similar data in different parts of the world. As shown in Figure 1, according to a survey conducted on the earthquake data, the most earthquakes in the southern Iran ranks first in the fourth Gregorian calendar month In April, coincided with Ordibehesht and Khordad in Persian calendar and then in the tenth Gregorian calendar month In October, coincided in Aban and Azar in Persian calendar.

Keywords: red tide, earth quake, persian gulf, harmful algae bloom

Procedia PDF Downloads 487
445 Environmental Law and Payment for Environmental Services: Perceptions of the Family Farmers of the Federal District, Brazil

Authors: Kever Bruno Paradelo Gomes, Rosana Carvalho Cristo Martins

Abstract:

Payment for Environmental Services (PSA) has been a strategy used since the late 1990s by Latin American countries to finance environmental conservation. Payment for Environmental Services has been absorbing a growing amount of time in the discussions around environmentally sustainable development strategies in the world. In Brazil, this theme has permeated the discussions since the publication of the new Forest Code. The objective of this work was to verify the perception of the resident farmers in the region of Ponte Alta, Gama, Federal District, Brazil, on environmental legislation and Payments for Environmental Services. The work was carried out in 99 rural properties of the family farmers of the Rural Nucleus Ponte Alta, Administrative Region of Gama, in the city of Brasília, Federal District, Brazil. The present research is characterized methodologically as a quantitative, exploratory, and descriptive nature. The data treatment was performed through descriptive statistical analysis and hypothesis testing. The perceptions about environmental legislation in the rural area of Ponte Alta, Gama, DF respondents were positive. Although most of the family farmers interviewed have some knowledge about environmental legislation, it is perceived that in practice, the environmental adequacy of property is ineffective given the current situation of sustainable rural development; there is an abyss between what is envisaged by legislation and reality in the field. Thus, as in the reports of other researchers, it is verified that the majority of respondents are not aware of PSA (62.62%). Among those interviewed who were aware of the subject, two learned through the course, three through the university, two through TV and five through other people. The planting of native forest species on the rural property was the most informed practice by farmers if they received some Environmental Service Payment (PSA). Reflections on the environment allow us to infer that the effectiveness and fulfillment of the incentives and rewards in the scope of public policies to encourage the maintenance of environmental services, already existing in all spheres of government, are of great relevance to the process of environmental sustainability of rural properties. The relevance of the present research is an important tool to promote the discussion and formulation of public policies focused on sustainable rural development, especially on payments for environmental services; it is a space of great interest for the strengthening of the social group dedicated to production. Public policies that are efficient and accessible to the small rural producers become decisive elements for the promotion of changes in behavior in the field, be it economic, social, or environmental.

Keywords: forest code, public policy, rural development, sustainable agriculture

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444 Optimization of a High-Growth Investment Portfolio for the South African Market Using Predictive Analytics

Authors: Mia Françoise

Abstract:

This report aims to develop a strategy for assisting short-term investors to benefit from the current economic climate in South Africa by utilizing technical analysis techniques and predictive analytics. As part of this research, value investing and technical analysis principles will be combined to maximize returns for South African investors while optimizing volatility. As an emerging market, South Africa offers many opportunities for high growth in sectors where other developed countries cannot grow at the same rate. Investing in South African companies with significant growth potential can be extremely rewarding. Although the risk involved is more significant in countries with less developed markets and infrastructure, there is more room for growth in these countries. According to recent research, the offshore market is expected to outperform the local market over the long term; however, short-term investments in the local market will likely be more profitable, as the Johannesburg Stock Exchange is predicted to outperform the S&P500 over the short term. The instabilities in the economy contribute to increased market volatility, which can benefit investors if appropriately utilized. Price prediction and portfolio optimization comprise the two primary components of this methodology. As part of this process, statistics and other predictive modeling techniques will be used to predict the future performance of stocks listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange. Following predictive data analysis, Modern Portfolio Theory, based on Markowitz's Mean-Variance Theorem, will be applied to optimize the allocation of assets within an investment portfolio. By combining different assets within an investment portfolio, this optimization method produces a portfolio with an optimal ratio of expected risk to expected return. This methodology aims to provide a short-term investment with a stock portfolio that offers the best risk-to-return profile for stocks listed on the JSE by combining price prediction and portfolio optimization.

Keywords: financial stocks, optimized asset allocation, prediction modelling, South Africa

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