Search results for: conjugate Fourier series
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 3555

Search results for: conjugate Fourier series

1005 Influence of Intelligence and Failure Mindsets on Parent's Failure Feedback

Authors: Sarah Kalaouze, Maxine Iannucelli, Kristen Dunfield

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Children’s implicit beliefs regarding intelligence (i.e., intelligence mindsets) influence their motivation, perseverance, and success. Previous research suggests that the way parents perceive failure influences the development of their child’s intelligence mindsets. We invited 151 children-parent dyads (Age= 5–6 years) to complete a series of difficult puzzles over zoom. We assessed parents’ intelligence and failure mindsets using questionnaires and recorded parents’ person/performance-oriented (e.g., “you are smart” or "you were almost able to complete that one) and process-oriented (e.g., “you are trying really hard” or "maybe if you place the bigger pieces first") failure feedback. We were interested in observing the relation between parental mindsets and the type of feedback provided. We found that parents’ intelligence mindsets were not predictive of the feedback they provided children. Failure mindsets, on the other hand, were predictive of failure feedback. Parents who view failure-as-debilitating provided more person-oriented feedback, focusing on performance and personal ability. Whereas parents who view failure-as-enhancing provided process-oriented feedback, focusing on effort and strategies. Taken all together, our results allow us to determine that although parents might already have a growth intelligence mindset, they don’t necessarily have a failure-as-enhancing mindset. Parents adopting a failure-as-enhancing mindset would influence their children to view failure as a learning opportunity, further promoting practice, effort, and perseverance during challenging tasks. The focus placed on a child’s learning, rather than their performance, encourages them to perceive intelligence as malleable (growth mindset) rather than fix (fixed mindset). This implies that parents should not only hold a growth mindset but thoroughly understand their role in the transmission of intelligence beliefs.

Keywords: mindset(s), failure, intelligence, parental feedback, parents

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1004 Efficiency and Scale Elasticity in Network Data Envelopment Analysis: An Application to International Tourist Hotels in Taiwan

Authors: Li-Hsueh Chen

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Efficient operation is more and more important for managers of hotels. Unlike the manufacturing industry, hotels cannot store their products. In addition, many hotels provide room service, and food and beverage service simultaneously. When efficiencies of hotels are evaluated, the internal structure should be considered. Hence, based on the operational characteristics of hotels, this study proposes a DEA model to simultaneously assess the efficiencies among the room production division, food and beverage production division, room service division and food and beverage service division. However, not only the enhancement of efficiency but also the adjustment of scale can improve the performance. In terms of the adjustment of scale, scale elasticity or returns to scale can help to managers to make decisions concerning expansion or contraction. In order to construct a reasonable approach to measure the efficiencies and scale elasticities of hotels, this study builds an alternative variable-returns-to-scale-based two-stage network DEA model with the combination of parallel and series structures to explore the scale elasticities of the whole system, room production division, food and beverage production division, room service division and food and beverage service division based on the data of international tourist hotel industry in Taiwan. The results may provide valuable information on operational performance and scale for managers and decision makers.

Keywords: efficiency, scale elasticity, network data envelopment analysis, international tourist hotel

Procedia PDF Downloads 213
1003 Eggshell Waste Bioprocessing for Sustainable Acid Phosphatase Production and Minimizing Environmental Hazards

Authors: Soad Abubakr Abdelgalil, Gaber Attia Abo-Zaid, Mohamed Mohamed Yousri Kaddah

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Background: The Environmental Protection Agency has listed eggshell waste as the 15th most significant food industry pollution hazard. The utilization of eggshell waste as a source of renewable energy has been a hot topic in recent years. Therefore, finding a sustainable solution for the recycling and valorization of eggshell waste by investigating its potential to produce acid phosphatase (ACP) and organic acids by the newly-discovered B. sonorensis was the target of the current investigation. Results: The most potent ACP-producing B. sonorensis strain ACP2 was identified as a local bacterial strain obtained from the effluent of paper and pulp industries on basis of molecular and morphological characterization. The use of consecutive statistical experimental approaches of Plackett-Burman Design (PBD), and Orthogonal Central Composite Design (OCCD), followed by pH-uncontrolled cultivation conditions in a 7 L bench-top bioreactor, revealed an innovative medium formulation that substantially improved ACP production, reaching 216 U L⁻¹ with ACP yield coefficient Yp/x of 18.2 and a specific growth rate (µ) of 0.1 h⁻¹. The metals Ag+, Sn+, and Cr+ were the most efficiently released from eggshells during the solubilization process by B. sonorensis. The uncontrolled pH culture condition is the most suited and favored setting for improving the ACP and organic acids production simultaneously. Quantitative and qualitative analyses of produced organic acids were carried out using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS). Lactic acid, citric acid, and hydroxybenzoic acid isomer were the most common organic acids produced throughout the cultivation process. The findings of thermogravimetric analysis (TGA), differential scan calorimeter (DSC), scanning electron microscope (SEM), energy-dispersive spectroscopy (EDS), Fourier-Transform Infrared Spectroscopy (FTIR), and X-Ray Diffraction (XRD) analysis emphasize the significant influence of organic acids and ACP activity on the solubilization of eggshells particles. Conclusions: This study emphasized robust microbial engineering approaches for the large-scale production of a newly discovered acid phosphatase accompanied by organic acids production from B. sonorensis. The biovalorization of the eggshell waste and the production of cost-effective ACP and organic acids were integrated into the current study, and this was done through the implementation of a unique and innovative medium formulation design for eggshell waste management, as well as scaling up ACP production on a bench-top scale.

Keywords: chicken eggshells waste, bioremediation, statistical experimental design, batch fermentation

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1002 Response Surface Methodology for the Optimization of Radioactive Wastewater Treatment with Chitosan-Argan Nutshell Beads

Authors: Fatima Zahra Falah, Touria El. Ghailassi, Samia Yousfi, Ahmed Moussaif, Hasna Hamdane, Mouna Latifa Bouamrani

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The management and treatment of radioactive wastewater pose significant challenges to environmental safety and public health. This study presents an innovative approach to optimizing radioactive wastewater treatment using a novel biosorbent: chitosan-argan nutshell beads. By employing Response Surface Methodology (RSM), we aimed to determine the optimal conditions for maximum removal efficiency of radioactive contaminants. Chitosan, a biodegradable and non-toxic biopolymer, was combined with argan nutshell powder to create composite beads. The argan nutshell, a waste product from argan oil production, provides additional adsorption sites and mechanical stability to the biosorbent. The beads were characterized using Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy (FTIR), Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM), and X-ray Diffraction (XRD) to confirm their structure and composition. A three-factor, three-level Box-Behnken design was utilized to investigate the effects of pH (3-9), contact time (30-150 minutes), and adsorbent dosage (0.5-2.5 g/L) on the removal efficiency of radioactive isotopes, primarily focusing on cesium-137. Batch adsorption experiments were conducted using synthetic radioactive wastewater with known concentrations of these isotopes. The RSM analysis revealed that all three factors significantly influenced the adsorption process. A quadratic model was developed to describe the relationship between the factors and the removal efficiency. The model's adequacy was confirmed through analysis of variance (ANOVA) and various diagnostic plots. Optimal conditions for maximum removal efficiency were pH 6.8, a contact time of 120 minutes, and an adsorbent dosage of 0.8 g/L. Under these conditions, the experimental removal efficiency for cesium-137 was 94.7%, closely matching the model's predictions. Adsorption isotherms and kinetics were also investigated to elucidate the mechanism of the process. The Langmuir isotherm and pseudo-second-order kinetic model best described the adsorption behavior, indicating a monolayer adsorption process on a homogeneous surface. This study demonstrates the potential of chitosan-argan nutshell beads as an effective and sustainable biosorbent for radioactive wastewater treatment. The use of RSM allowed for the efficient optimization of the process parameters, potentially reducing the time and resources required for large-scale implementation. Future work will focus on testing the biosorbent's performance with real radioactive wastewater samples and investigating its regeneration and reusability for long-term applications.

Keywords: adsorption, argan nutshell, beads, chitosan, mechanism, optimization, radioactive wastewater, response surface methodology

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1001 FRATSAN: A New Software for Fractal Analysis of Signals

Authors: Hamidreza Namazi

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Fractal analysis is assessing fractal characteristics of data. It consists of several methods to assign fractal characteristics to a dataset which may be a theoretical dataset or a pattern or signal extracted from phenomena including natural geometric objects, sound, market fluctuations, heart rates, digital images, molecular motion, networks, etc. Fractal analysis is now widely used in all areas of science. An important limitation of fractal analysis is that arriving at an empirically determined fractal dimension does not necessarily prove that a pattern is fractal; rather, other essential characteristics have to be considered. For this purpose a Visual C++ based software called FRATSAN (FRActal Time Series ANalyser) was developed which extract information from signals through three measures. These measures are Fractal Dimensions, Jeffrey’s Measure and Hurst Exponent. After computing these measures, the software plots the graphs for each measure. Besides computing three measures the software can classify whether the signal is fractal or no. In fact, the software uses a dynamic method of analysis for all the measures. A sliding window is selected with a value equal to 10% of the total number of data entries. This sliding window is moved one data entry at a time to obtain all the measures. This makes the computation very sensitive to slight changes in data, thereby giving the user an acute analysis of the data. In order to test the performance of this software a set of EEG signals was given as input and the results were computed and plotted. This software is useful not only for fundamental fractal analysis of signals but can be used for other purposes. For instance by analyzing the Hurst exponent plot of a given EEG signal in patients with epilepsy the onset of seizure can be predicted by noticing the sudden changes in the plot.

Keywords: EEG signals, fractal analysis, fractal dimension, hurst exponent, Jeffrey’s measure

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1000 Tensile Retention Properties of Thermoplastic Starch Based Biocomposites Modified with Glutaraldehyde

Authors: Jen-Taut Yeh, Yuan-jing Hou, Li Cheng, Ya Zhou Wang, Zhi Yu Zhang

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Tensile retention properties of bacterial cellulose (BC) reinforced thermoplastic starch (TPS) resins were successfully improved by reacting with glutaraldehyde (GA) in their gelatinization processes. Small amounts of poly (lactic acid) (PLA) were blended with GA modified TPS resins to improve their processability. As evidenced by the newly developed ether (-C-O-C-) stretching bands on FT-IR spectra of TPS100BC0.02GAx series specimens, hydroxyl groups of TPS100BC0.02 resins were successfully reacted with the aldehyde groups of GA molecules during their modification processes. The retention values of tensile strengths (σf) of TPS100BC0.02GAx and (TPS100BC0.02GAx)75PLA25 specimens improved significantly and reached a maximal value as GA contents approached an optimal value at 0.5 part per hundred parts of TPS resin (PHR). By addition of 0.5 PHR GA in biocomposite specimens, the initial tensile strength and elongation at break values of (TPS100BC0.02GA0.5)75PLA25 specimen improved to 24.6 MPa and 5.6%, respectively, which were slightly improved than those of (TPS100BC0.02)75PLA25 specimen. However, the retention values of tensile strengths of (TPS100BC0.02GA0.5)75PLA25 specimen reached around 82.5%, after placing the specimen under 20oC/50% relative humidity for 56 days, which were significantly better than those of the (TPS100BC0.02)75PLA25 specimen. In order to understand these interesting tensile retention properties found for (TPS100BC0.02GAx)75PLA25 specimens. Thermal analyses of initial and aged TPS100BC0.02, TPS100BC0.02GAx and (TPS100BC0.02GAx)75PLA25 specimens were also performed in this investigation. Possible reasons accounting for the significantly improved tensile retention properties of TPS100BC0.02GAx and (TPS100BC0.02GAx)75PLA25 specimens are proposed.

Keywords: biocomposite, strength retention, thermoplastic starch, tensile retention

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999 Narrative Function of Public Meeting Places in Uzalo Soap Opera

Authors: Michelle Micah Augustine

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Soap opera narrative creates a sense of community. Uzalo is a South African local soap opera television series. It is unique because Uzalo tells the story of black people and their everyday struggle centered in KwaMashu township community, which is an excellent example of how moving image culture has contributed in portraying township community that was once marginalized by the apartheid regime in contemporary South Africa. While soap opera importance and promotion of social change and behaviours have been extensively studied throughout history, little research has examined the importance of space and place in its narrative. This study explored the conventional community space and place, the core elements that drive soap opera narrative. By means of qualitative content analysis, the study investigated the construction of public meeting places in Uzalo, using a purposive sampling technique to collect data by choosing episodes. The result indicates that characters convergence in public meeting places in soap opera creates disequilibrium which drives the narrative; reveals that construction of a public meeting place is an important way of creating a minimum of homogeneousness among disparate characters, gives a sense of unified experience drawing on the notion of the particular characteristics or attitude generated from such place. The result shows that the use of camera angles, movements, editing, music and usual tricks (mise-en-scene) applied in the narrative setting function as a guide for viewers comprehension of emotional responses of the story and to connect with the space in which the narrative is set.

Keywords: community, narrative, place, space, soap opera

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998 Design and Simulation of a Radiation Spectrometer Using Scintillation Detectors

Authors: Waleed K. Saib, Abdulsalam M. Alhawsawi, Essam Banoqitah

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The idea of this research is to design a radiation spectrometer using LSO scintillation detector coupled to a C series of SiPM (silicon photomultiplier). The device can be used to detects gamma and X-ray radiation. This device is also designed to estimates the activity of the source contamination. The SiPM will detect light in the visible range above the threshold and read them as counts. Three gamma sources were used for these experiments Cs-137, Am-241 and Co-60 with various activities. These sources are applied for four experiments operating the SiPM as a spectrometer, energy resolution, pile-up set and efficiency. The SiPM is connected to a MCA to perform as a spectrometer. Cerium doped Lutetium Silicate (Lu₂SiO₅) with light yield 26000 photons/Mev coupled with the SiPM. As a result, all the main features of the Cs-137, Am-241 and Co-60 are identified in MCA. The experiment shows how photon energy and probability of interaction are inversely related. Total attenuation reduces as photon energy increases. An analytical calculation was made to obtain the FWHM resolution for each gamma source. The FWHM resolution for Am-241 (59 keV) is 28.75 %, for Cs-137 (662 keV) is 7.85 %, for Co-60 (1173 keV) is 4.46 % and for Co-60 (1332 keV) is 3.70%. Moreover, the experiment shows that the dead time and counts number decreased when the pile-up rejection was disabled and the FWHM decreased when the pile-up was enabled. The efficiencies were calculated at four different distances from the detector 2, 4, 8 and 16 cm. The detection efficiency was observed to declined exponentially with increasing distance from the detector face. Conclusively, the SiPM board operated with an LSO scintillator crystal as a spectrometer. The SiPM energy resolution for the three gamma sources used was a decent comparison to other PMTs.

Keywords: PMT, radiation, radiation detection, scintillation detectors, silicon photomultiplier, spectrometer

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997 General Formula for Water Surface Profile over Side Weir in the Combined, Trapezoidal and Exponential, Channels

Authors: Abdulrahman Abdulrahman

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A side weir is a hydraulic structure set into the side of a channel. This structure is used for water level control in channels, to divert flow from a main channel into a side channel when the water level in the main channel exceeds a specific limit and as storm overflows from urban sewerage system. Computation of water surface over the side weirs is essential to determine the flow rate of the side weir. Analytical solutions for water surface profile along rectangular side weir are available only for the special cases of rectangular and trapezoidal channels considering constant specific energy. In this paper, a rectangular side weir located in a combined (trapezoidal with exponential) channel was considered. Expanding binominal series of integer and fraction powers and the using of reduction formula of cosine function integrals, a general analytical formula was obtained for water surface profile along a side weir in a combined (trapezoidal with exponential) channel. Since triangular, rectangular, trapezoidal and parabolic cross-sections are special cases of the combined cross section, the derived formula, is applicable to triangular, rectangular, trapezoidal cross-sections as analytical solution and semi-analytical solution to parabolic cross-section with maximum relative error smaller than 0.76%. The proposed solution should be a useful engineering tool for the evaluation and design of side weirs in open channel.

Keywords: analytical solution, combined channel, exponential channel, side weirs, trapezoidal channel, water surface profile

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996 Assessing Functional Structure in European Marine Ecosystems Using a Vector-Autoregressive Spatio-Temporal Model

Authors: Katyana A. Vert-Pre, James T. Thorson, Thomas Trancart, Eric Feunteun

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In marine ecosystems, spatial and temporal species structure is an important component of ecosystems’ response to anthropological and environmental factors. Although spatial distribution patterns and fish temporal series of abundance have been studied in the past, little research has been allocated to the joint dynamic spatio-temporal functional patterns in marine ecosystems and their use in multispecies management and conservation. Each species represents a function to the ecosystem, and the distribution of these species might not be random. A heterogeneous functional distribution will lead to a more resilient ecosystem to external factors. Applying a Vector-Autoregressive Spatio-Temporal (VAST) model for count data, we estimate the spatio-temporal distribution, shift in time, and abundance of 140 species of the Eastern English Chanel, Bay of Biscay and Mediterranean Sea. From the model outputs, we determined spatio-temporal clusters, calculating p-values for hierarchical clustering via multiscale bootstrap resampling. Then, we designed a functional map given the defined cluster. We found that the species distribution within the ecosystem was not random. Indeed, species evolved in space and time in clusters. Moreover, these clusters remained similar over time deriving from the fact that species of a same cluster often shifted in sync, keeping the overall structure of the ecosystem similar overtime. Knowing the co-existing species within these clusters could help with predicting data-poor species distribution and abundance. Further analysis is being performed to assess the ecological functions represented in each cluster.

Keywords: cluster distribution shift, European marine ecosystems, functional distribution, spatio-temporal model

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995 An Optimization Model for the Arrangement of Assembly Areas Considering Time Dynamic Area Requirements

Authors: Michael Zenker, Henrik Prinzhorn, Christian Böning, Tom Strating

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Large-scale products are often assembled according to the job-site principle, meaning that during the assembly the product is located at a fixed position, while the area requirements are constantly changing. On one hand, the product itself is growing with each assembly step, whereas varying areas for storage, machines or working areas are temporarily required. This is an important factor when arranging products to be assembled within the factory. Currently, it is common to reserve a fixed area for each product to avoid overlaps or collisions with the other assemblies. Intending to be large enough to include the product and all adjacent areas, this reserved area corresponds to the superposition of the maximum extents of all required areas of the product. In this procedure, the reserved area is usually poorly utilized over the course of the entire assembly process; instead a large part of it remains unused. If the available area is a limited resource, a systematic arrangement of the products, which complies with the dynamic area requirements, will lead to an increased area utilization and productivity. This paper presents the results of a study on the arrangement of assembly objects assuming dynamic, competing area requirements. First, the problem situation is extensively explained, and existing research on associated topics is described and evaluated on the possibility of an adaptation. Then, a newly developed mathematical optimization model is introduced. This model allows an optimal arrangement of dynamic areas, considering logical and practical constraints. Finally, in order to quantify the potential of the developed method, some test series results are presented, showing the possible increase in area utilization.

Keywords: dynamic area requirements, facility layout problem, optimization model, product assembly

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994 Production of Metal Matrix Composites with Diamond for Abrasive Cutting Resistance by Gas Infiltration Casting

Authors: Haydar S. Al Shabbani, M. Marshall, R. Goodall

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Metal matrix composites (MMCs) have been explored for many applications for many decades. Recently, this includes investigations for thermal applications associated with electronics, such as in heat sinks. Here, to promote thermal conductivity, composites of a metal matrix with diamond particles are used. However, this class of composites has not yet been extensively examined for mechanical and tribological behavior, especially for applications that require extreme mechanical and tribological strength, such as the resistance to abrasive cutting. Therefore, this research seeks to develop a composite material with metal matrix and diamond particles which resist abrasive and cutting forces. The development progresses through a series of steps, exploring methods to process the material, understanding the mechanics of abrasive behavior and optimizing the composite structure to resist abrasive cutting. In processing, infiltration casting under gas pressure has been applied to molten aluminum to obtain a significant penetration of the metal into a preform of diamond particles. Different diamond particle sizes were used with different surface modifications (coated/uncoated), and to compare resulting composites with the same particle sizes. Al-1 wt.% Mg as a matrix alloy was utilised to investigate the possible effect of Mg on bonding phases during the infiltration process. The mechanical behavior and microstructure of the materials produced have been characterised. These tests showed that the surface modification of the diamond particles with a reactive material (Ti-coating) has an important role for enhancing the bonding between the aluminium matrix and diamond reinforcement as apparent under SEM observation. The effect of this improved bond is seen in the cutting resistance of the material.

Keywords: aluminium, composites, diamond, Ti-coated, tribology

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993 Syntheses of Anionic Poly(urethanes) with Imidazolium, Phosphonium, and Ammonium as Counter-cations and Their Evaluation for CO2 Separation

Authors: Franciele L. Bernard, Felipe Dalla Vecchia, Barbara B. Polesso, Jose A. Donato, Marcus Seferin, Rosane Ligabue, Jailton F. do Nascimento, Sandra Einloft

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The increasing level of carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere related to fossil fuels processing and utilization are contributing to global warming phenomena considerably. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies appear as one of the key technologies to reduce CO2 emissions mitigating the effects of climate change. Absorption using amines solutions as solvents have been extensively studied and used in industry for decades. However, solvent degradation and equipment corrosion are two of the main problems in this process. Poly (ionic liquid) (PIL) is considered as a promising material for CCS technology, potentially more environmentally friendly and lesser energy demanding than traditional material. PILs possess a unique combination of ionic liquids (ILs) features, such as affinity for CO2, thermal and chemical stability and adjustable properties, coupled with the intrinsic properties of the polymer. This study investigated new Poly (ionic liquid) (PIL) based on polyurethanes with different ionic liquids cations and its potential for CO2 capture. The PILs were synthesized by the addition of diisocyante to a difunctional polyol, followed by an exchange reaction with the ionic Liquids 1-butyl-3-methylimidazolium chloride (BMIM Cl); tetrabutylammonium bromide (TBAB) and tetrabutylphosphonium bromide (TBPB). These materials were characterized by Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR), Proton Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (1H-NMR), Atomic force microscopy (AFM), Tensile strength analysis, Field emission scanning electron microscopy (FESEM), Thermogravimetric analysis (TGA), Differential scanning calorimetry (DSC). The PILs CO2 sorption capacity were gravimetrically assessed in a Magnetic Suspension Balance (MSB). It was found that the ionic liquids cation influences in the compounds properties as well as in the CO2 sorption. The best result for CO2 sorption (123 mgCO2/g at 30 bar) was obtained for the PIL (PUPT-TBA). The higher CO2 sorption in PUPT-TBA is probably linked to the fact that the tetraalkylammonium cation having a higher positive density charge can have a stronger interaction with CO2, while the imidazolium charge is delocalized. The comparative CO2 sorption values of the PUPT-TBA with different ionic liquids showed that this material has greater capacity for capturing CO2 when compared to the ILs even at higher temperature. This behavior highlights the importance of this study, as the poly (urethane) based PILs are cheap and versatile materials.

Keywords: capture, CO2, ionic liquids, ionic poly(urethane)

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992 Kinetic Analysis for Assessing Gait Disorders in Muscular Dystrophy Disease

Authors: Mehdi Razeghi

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Background: The purpose of this case series was to quantify gait to study muscular dystrophy disease. In this research, the quantitative differences between normal and waddling gaits were assessed by force plate analysis. Methods: Nineteen myopathy patients and twenty normal subjects serving as the control group participated in this research. In this study, quantitative analyses of gait have been used to investigate the differences between the mobility of normal subjects and myopathy patients. This study was carried out at the Iranian Muscular Dystrophy Association in Boali Hospital, Tehran, Iran, from October 2015 to July 2020. Patient data were collected from Iranian Muscular Dystrophy Association members. individuals signed an informed consent form approved by the ethics committee of the Azad University. All of the gait tests were performed using a Kistler force platform. Participants walked at a self-selected speed, barefoot, independently, and without assistive devices. Results: Our findings indicate that there were no significant differences between the patients and the control group in the anterior-posterior components of the ground reaction forces; however, there were considerable differences in the force components between the groups in the medial-lateral and vertical directions of the ground reaction force. In addition, there were significant differences in the time parameters between the groups in the vertical and medial-lateral directions.

Keywords: biomechanics, force plate analysis, gait disorder, ground reaction force, kinetic analysis, myopathy disease, rehabilitation engineering

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991 Bio-Guided of Active New Alkaloids from Alstonia Brassi Toxicity Antitumour Activity in Silico and Molecular Modeling

Authors: Mesbah Khaled, Bouraoui Ouissal, Benkiniouar Rachid, Belkhiri Lotfi

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Alstonia, which are tropical plants with a wide geographical distribution, have been divided into different sections by different authors based on previous studies of several species within the genus. Monachino divides Alstonia into 5 sections, while Pichon divides it into 3 sections. Several plants belonging to this genus, such as Alstonia brassii, have been used in traditional folk medicine to treat ailments such as fever, malaria and dysentery]. Previous studies focusing on the chemical composition of these plants have successfully identified indol alkaloids with cytotoxic, anti-diabetic and anti-inflammatory properties. The newly discovered monomers are structurally similar to the backbones of picralin, affinisin and macrolin. On the other hand, all recently isolated dimeric compounds have a macrolin moiety. In this study, a computational analysis was performed on a series of novel molecules, including both monomeric and dimeric compounds with different structural frameworks. This investigation represents the first computational study of these molecules using an in silico approach incorporating 2D-QSAR data. The analysis involved various computational techniques, including 2D-QSAR modelling, molecular docking studies and subsequent validation by molecular dynamics simulation and assessment of ADMET properties. The chemical composition was identified by 1D and 2D NMR. Eight new alkaloids were isolated, 5 monomers and 3 dimers. In this section, we focus on the biological activity of 4 new alkaloids belonging to two different skeletons, the affinisine skeleton.

Keywords: affinisine, talcarpine, macroline, cytotoxicity, alkaloids

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990 The Reenactment of Historic Memory and the Ways to Read past Traces through Contemporary Architecture in European Urban Contexts: The Case Study of the Medieval Walls of Naples

Authors: Francesco Scarpati

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Because of their long history, ranging from ancient times to the present day, European cities feature many historical layers, whose single identities are represented by traces surviving in the urban design. However, urban transformations, in particular, the ones that have been produced by the property speculation phenomena of the 20th century, often compromised the readability of these traces, resulting in a loss of the historical identities of the single layers. The purpose of this research is, therefore, a reflection on the theme of the reenactment of the historical memory in the stratified European contexts and on how contemporary architecture can help to reveal past signs of the cities. The research work starts from an analysis of a series of emblematic examples that have already provided an original solution to the described problem, going from the architectural detail scale to the urban and landscape scale. The results of these analyses are then applied to the case study of the city of Naples, as an emblematic example of a stratified city, with an ancient Greek origin; a city where it is possible to read most of the traces of its transformations. Particular consideration is given to the trace of the medieval walls of the city, which a long time ago clearly divided the city itself from the outer fields, and that is no longer readable at the current time. Finally, solutions and methods of intervention are proposed to ensure that the trace of the walls, read as a boundary, can be revealed through the contemporary project.

Keywords: contemporary project, historic memory, historic urban contexts, medieval walls, naples, stratified cities, urban traces

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989 Drought Risk Analysis Using Neural Networks for Agri-Businesses and Projects in Lejweleputswa District Municipality, South Africa

Authors: Bernard Moeketsi Hlalele

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Drought is a complicated natural phenomenon that creates significant economic, social, and environmental problems. An analysis of paleoclimatic data indicates that severe and extended droughts are inevitable part of natural climatic circle. This study characterised drought in Lejweleputswa using both Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) and neural networks (NN) to quantify and predict respectively. Monthly 37-year long time series precipitation data were obtained from online NASA database. Prior to the final analysis, this dataset was checked for outliers using SPSS. Outliers were removed and replaced by Expectation Maximum algorithm from SPSS. This was followed by both homogeneity and stationarity tests to ensure non-spurious results. A non-parametric Mann Kendall's test was used to detect monotonic trends present in the dataset. Two temporal scales SPI-3 and SPI-12 corresponding to agricultural and hydrological drought events showed statistically decreasing trends with p-value = 0.0006 and 4.9 x 10⁻⁷, respectively. The study area has been plagued with severe drought events on SPI-3, while on SPI-12, it showed approximately a 20-year circle. The concluded the analyses with a seasonal analysis that showed no significant trend patterns, and as such NN was used to predict possible SPI-3 for the last season of 2018/2019 and four seasons for 2020. The predicted drought intensities ranged from mild to extreme drought events to come. It is therefore recommended that farmers, agri-business owners, and other relevant stakeholders' resort to drought resistant crops as means of adaption.

Keywords: drought, risk, neural networks, agri-businesses, project, Lejweleputswa

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988 The State and Poverty Reduction Strategy in Nigeria: An Assessement

Authors: Musa Ogah Ari

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Poverty has engaged the attention of the global community. Both the rich and poor countries are concerned about its prevalence and impacts. This phenomenon is more pervasive among developing countries with the greater challenges manifesting among African countries. In Nigeria people live with very low income, and so decent three-square meals, clothes, shelter and other basic necessities are very difficult to come by for most of the population. Qualitative health facilities are seriously lacking to over 160 million population in the state. Equally lacking are educational and social infrastructures that can be available to the people at affordable rates. Roads linking the interior parts of the state are generally in deplorable conditions, particularly in the rainy season. Safe drinking water is hard to come by as the state is not properly placed and equipped to function in full capacity to serve the interest of the people. The challenges of poverty is definitely enormous for both the national and state governments consequently, debilitating scourge of poverty. As the ruling elites in Nigeria claim to reduce the rising profile of poverty through series of policies and programmes, food production, promotion and funding of co-operatives for agriculture, improvement of infrastructures at the rural areas to guaranteeing employment through skill acquisition, assistance of rural women to break away from poverty and the provision of small scale credit facilities to poor members of the public were abysmally low. It is observed that the poverty alleviation programmes and policies failed because they were by nature, character and implementation pro-elites and anti-masses. None of the programmes or policies engaged the rural poor either in terms of formulation or implementation.

Keywords: the state, poverty, government policies, strategies, social amenities, corruption

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987 Copper Price Prediction Model for Various Economic Situations

Authors: Haidy S. Ghali, Engy Serag, A. Samer Ezeldin

Abstract:

Copper is an essential raw material used in the construction industry. During the year 2021 and the first half of 2022, the global market suffered from a significant fluctuation in copper raw material prices due to the aftermath of both the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war, which exposed its consumers to an unexpected financial risk. Thereto, this paper aims to develop two ANN-LSTM price prediction models, using Python, that can forecast the average monthly copper prices traded in the London Metal Exchange; the first model is a multivariate model that forecasts the copper price of the next 1-month and the second is a univariate model that predicts the copper prices of the upcoming three months. Historical data of average monthly London Metal Exchange copper prices are collected from January 2009 till July 2022, and potential external factors are identified and employed in the multivariate model. These factors lie under three main categories: energy prices and economic indicators of the three major exporting countries of copper, depending on the data availability. Before developing the LSTM models, the collected external parameters are analyzed with respect to the copper prices using correlation and multicollinearity tests in R software; then, the parameters are further screened to select the parameters that influence the copper prices. Then, the two LSTM models are developed, and the dataset is divided into training, validation, and testing sets. The results show that the performance of the 3-Month prediction model is better than the 1-Month prediction model, but still, both models can act as predicting tools for diverse economic situations.

Keywords: copper prices, prediction model, neural network, time series forecasting

Procedia PDF Downloads 97
986 Experimental Study of Vibration Isolators Made of Expanded Cork Agglomerate

Authors: S. Dias, A. Tadeu, J. Antonio, F. Pedro, C. Serra

Abstract:

The goal of the present work is to experimentally evaluate the feasibility of using vibration isolators made of expanded cork agglomerate. Even though this material, also known as insulation cork board (ICB), has mainly been studied for thermal and acoustic insulation purposes, it has strong potential for use in vibration isolation. However, the adequate design of expanded cork blocks vibration isolators will depend on several factors, such as excitation frequency, static load conditions and intrinsic dynamic behavior of the material. In this study, transmissibility tests for different static and dynamic loading conditions were performed in order to characterize the material. Since the material’s physical properties can influence the vibro-isolation performance of the blocks (in terms of density and thickness), this study covered four mass density ranges and four block thicknesses. A total of 72 expanded cork agglomerate specimens were tested. The test apparatus comprises a vibration exciter connected to an excitation mass that holds the test specimen. The test specimens under characterization were loaded successively with steel plates in order to obtain results for different masses. An accelerometer was placed at the top of these masses and at the base of the excitation mass. The test was performed for a defined frequency range, and the amplitude registered by the accelerometers was recorded in time domain. For each of the signals (signal 1- vibration of the excitation mass, signal 2- vibration of the loading mass) a fast Fourier transform (FFT) was applied in order to obtain the frequency domain response. For each of the frequency domain signals, the maximum amplitude reached was registered. The ratio between the amplitude (acceleration) of signal 2 and the amplitude of signal 1, allows the calculation of the transmissibility for each frequency. Repeating this procedure allowed us to plot a transmissibility curve for a certain frequency range. A number of transmissibility experiments were performed to assess the influence of changing the mass density and thickness of the expanded cork blocks and the experimental conditions (static load and frequency of excitation). The experimental transmissibility tests performed in this study showed that expanded cork agglomerate blocks are a good option for mitigating vibrations. It was concluded that specimens with lower mass density and larger thickness lead to better performance, with higher vibration isolation and a larger range of isolated frequencies. In conclusion, the study of the performance of expanded cork agglomerate blocks presented herein will allow for a more efficient application of expanded cork vibration isolators. This is particularly relevant since this material is a more sustainable alternative to other commonly used non-environmentally friendly products, such as rubber.

Keywords: expanded cork agglomerate, insulation cork board, transmissibility tests, sustainable materials, vibration isolators

Procedia PDF Downloads 324
985 Microplastic Migration from Food Packaging on Cured Meat Products

Authors: Klytaimnistra Katsara, George Kenanakis, Eleftherios Alissandrakis, Vassilis M. Papadakis

Abstract:

In recent decades, microplastics (MPs) attracted the interest of the research community as the level of environmental plastic pollution has increased over the years. Through air inhalation and food consumption, MPs enter the human body, creating a series of possible health issues. The majority of MPs enter through the digestive tract; they migrate from the plastic packaging of the foodstuffs. Several plastics, such as Polyethylene (PE), are commonly used as food packaging material due to their preservation and storage capabilities. In this work, the surfaces of three different cured meat products with varied fat compositions were studied (bacon, mortadella, and salami) to determine the migration of MPs from plastic packaging. Micro-Raman spectroscopic measurements were performed in an experimental set lasting 28 days, where the meat samples were stored in vacuum-sealed low-density polyethylene (LDPE) pouches under refrigeration conditions at 4°C. Specific measurement days (0, 3, 9, 12, 15, and 28 days of storage) were chosen to obtain comparative results. Raman micro-spectroscopy was used to monitor the MPs migration, where the Raman spectral profile of LDPE first appeared on day 9 in Bacon, day 15 in Salami, and finally, on day 28 in Mortadella. All the meat samples on day 28 were tainted because a layer of bacterial outgrowth had developed on their surface. In conclusion, MP migration from food packaging to the surface of the cured meat samples was proven. To minimize the consumption of MPs in cured meat products that are stored in plastic packaging, a short period of storage time under refrigeration conditions is advised.

Keywords: cured meat, food packaging, low-density polyethylene, microplastic migration, micro-Raman spectroscopy

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984 Stainless Steel Swarfs for Replacement of Copper in Non-Asbestos Organic Brake-Pads

Authors: Vishal Mahale, Jayashree Bijwe, Sujeet K. Sinha

Abstract:

Nowadays extensive research is going on in the field of friction materials (FMs) for development of eco-friendly brake-materials by removing copper as it is a proven threat to the aquatic organisms. Researchers are keen to find the solution for copper-free FMs by using different metals or without metals. Steel wool is used as a reinforcement in non-asbestos organic (NAO) FMs mainly for increasing thermal conductivity, and it affects wear adversely, most of the times and also adds friction fluctuations. Copper and brass used to be the preferred choices because of superior performance in almost every aspect except cost. Since these are being phased out because of a proven threat to the aquatic life. Keeping this in view, a series of realistic multi-ingredient FMs containing stainless steel (SS) swarfs as a theme ingredient in increasing amount (0, 5, 10 and 15 wt. %- S₅, S₁₀, and S₁₅) were developed in the form of brake-pads. One more composite containing copper instead of SS swarfs (C₁₀) was developed. These composites were characterized for physical, mechanical, chemical and tribological performance. Composites were tribo-evaluated on a chase machine with various test loops as per SAE J661 standards. Various performance parameters such as normal µ, hot µ, performance µ, fade µ, recovery µ, % fade, % recovery, wear resistance, etc. were used to evaluate the role of amount of SS swarfs in FMs. It was concluded that SS swarfs proved successful in Cu replacement almost in all respects except wear resistance. With increase in amount of SS swarfs, most of the properties improved. Worn surface analysis and wear mechanism were studied using SEM and EDAX techniques.

Keywords: Chase type friction tester, copper-free, non-asbestos organic (NAO) friction materials, stainless steel swarfs

Procedia PDF Downloads 174
983 Women in Violent Conflicts and the Challenges of Food Security in Northeast Nigeria: The Case of Boko Haram Insurgency

Authors: Grace Modupe Adebo, Ayodeji Oluwamuyiwa Adedapo

Abstract:

Women are key actors in ensuring food security in terms of food availability, food access, and food utilization in the developing economy, however, they suffer mostly during violent conflicts due to their feminist nature of rearing and caring for their children and relatives. The study was embarked upon to access the effects of violent conflicts posed by Boko Haram insurgency on women and food security in the Northeast of Nigeria. The study made use of secondary data. A time series data collected over a 22 years period were used. The data collected were subjected to descriptive statistics and t-test analysis. The findings of the study established a significant difference in food production (availability) before and after the Boko Haram insurgency at the 1% level of significance. The high level of Internally Displaced Person (IDP) with a high proportion of women depicts a very low level of food accessibility as the men and women has fled and uninhabited their place of abode for over a period of four to five years, thus diminishing their economic power, and the means of acquiring food which invariably endanger food stability and utilization. The study confirmed the abduction and changing roles of women as cooks, porters, spies, partners, and sex slaves to Boko Haram troop members, thus affecting their livelihoods and food security. The study recommends hands-on interventions by the governmental, non-governmental and international agencies to terminate the activities of Boko Haram in the area and restore the food production for enhanced food security.

Keywords: Boko Haram insurgency, food accessibility, food production, food utilization, women’s livelihoods

Procedia PDF Downloads 132
982 Voltage Stabilization of Hybrid PV and Battery Systems by Considering Temperature and Irradiance Changes in Standalone Operation

Authors: S. Jalilzadeh, S. M. Mohseni Bonab

Abstract:

Solar and battery energy storage systems are very useful for consumers who live in deprived areas and do not have access to electricity distribution networks. Nowadays one of the problems that photo voltaic systems (PV) have changing of output power in temperature and irradiance variations, which directly affects the load that is connected to photo voltaic systems. In this paper, with considering the fact that the solar array varies with change in temperature and solar power radiation, a voltage stabilizer system of a load connected to photo voltaic array is designed to stabilize the load voltage and to transfer surplus power of the battery. Also, in proposed hybrid system, the needed load power amount is supplemented considering the voltage stabilization in standalone operation for supplying unbalanced AC load. Electrical energy storage system for voltage control and improvement of the performance of PV by a DC/DC converter is connected to the DC bus. The load is also feed by an AC/DC converter. In this paper, when the voltage increases in its reference limit, the battery gets charged by the photo voltaic array and when it decreases in its defined limit, the power gets injected to the DC bus by this battery. The constant of DC bus Voltage is the cause for the reduced harmonics generated by the inverter. In addition, a series of filters are provided in the inverter output in to reduced harmonics. The inverter control circuit is designed that the voltage and frequency of the load remain almost constant at different load conditions. This paper has focused on controlling strategies of converters to improve their performance.

Keywords: photovoltaic array (PV), DC/DC Boost converter, battery converter, inverters control

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981 Development and Characterization of Topical 5-Fluorouracil Solid Lipid Nanoparticles for the Effective Treatment of Non-Melanoma Skin Cancer

Authors: Sudhir Kumar, V. R. Sinha

Abstract:

Background: The topical and systemic toxicity associated with present nonmelanoma skin cancer (NMSC) treatment therapy using 5-Fluorouracil (5-FU) make it necessary to develop a novel delivery system having lesser toxicity and better control over drug release. Solid lipid nanoparticles offer many advantages like: controlled and localized release of entrapped actives, nontoxicity, and better tolerance. Aim:-To investigate safety and efficacy of 5-FU loaded solid lipid nanoparticles as a topical delivery system for the treatment of nonmelanoma skin cancer. Method: Topical solid lipid nanoparticles of 5-FU were prepared using Compritol 888 ATO (Glyceryl behenate) as lipid component and pluronic F68 (Poloxamer 188), Tween 80 (Polysorbate 80), Tyloxapol (4-(1,1,3,3-Tetramethylbutyl) phenol polymer with formaldehyde and oxirane) as surfactants. The SLNs were prepared with emulsification method. Different formulation parameters viz. type and ratio of surfactant, ratio of lipid and ratio of surfactant:lipid were investigated on particle size and drug entrapment efficiency. Results: Characterization of SLNs like–Transmission Electron Microscopy (TEM), Differential Scannig calorimetry (DSC), Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR), Particle size determination, Polydispersity index, Entrapment efficiency, Drug loading, ex vivo skin permeation and skin retention studies, skin irritation and histopathology studies were performed. TEM results showed that shape of SLNs was spherical with size range 200-500nm. Higher encapsulation efficiency was obtained for batches having higher concentration of surfactant and lipid. It was found maximum 64.3% for SLN-6 batch with size of 400.1±9.22 nm and PDI 0.221±0.031. Optimized SLN batches and marketed 5-FU cream were compared for flux across rat skin and skin drug retention. The lesser flux and higher skin retention was obtained for SLN formulation in comparison to topical 5-FU cream, which ensures less systemic toxicity and better control of drug release across skin. Chronic skin irritation studies lacks serious erythema or inflammation and histopathology studies showed no significant change in physiology of epidermal layers of rat skin. So, these studies suggest that the optimized SLN formulation is efficient then marketed cream and safer for long term NMSC treatment regimens. Conclusion: Topical and systemic toxicity associated with long-term use of 5-FU, in the treatment of NMSC, can be minimized with its controlled release with significant drug retention with minimal flux across skin. The study may provide a better alternate for effective NMSC treatment.

Keywords: 5-FU, topical formulation, solid lipid nanoparticles, non melanoma skin cancer

Procedia PDF Downloads 498
980 Government Size and Economic Growth: Testing the Non-Linear Hypothesis for Nigeria

Authors: R. Santos Alimi

Abstract:

Using time-series techniques, this study empirically tested the validity of existing theory which stipulates there is a nonlinear relationship between government size and economic growth; such that government spending is growth-enhancing at low levels but growth-retarding at high levels, with the optimal size occurring somewhere in between. This study employed three estimation equations. First, for the size of government, two measures are considered as follows: (i) share of total expenditures to gross domestic product, (ii) share of recurrent expenditures to gross domestic product. Second, the study adopted real GDP (without government expenditure component), as a variant measure of economic growth other than the real total GDP, in estimating the optimal level of government expenditure. The study is based on annual Nigeria country-level data for the period 1970 to 2012. Estimation results show that the inverted U-shaped curve exists for the two measures of government size and the estimated optimum shares are 19.81% and 10.98%, respectively. Finally, with the adoption of real GDP (without government expenditure component), the optimum government size was found to be 12.58% of GDP. Our analysis shows that the actual share of government spending on average (2000 - 2012) is about 13.4%.This study adds to the literature confirming that the optimal government size exists not only for developed economies but also for developing economy like Nigeria. Thus, a public intervention threshold level that fosters economic growth is a reality; beyond this point economic growth should be left in the hands of the private sector. This finding has a significant implication for the appraisal of government spending and budgetary policy design.

Keywords: public expenditure, economic growth, optimum level, fully modified OLS

Procedia PDF Downloads 402
979 Seismic Evaluation of Connected and Disconnected Piled Raft Foundations

Authors: Ali Fallah Yeznabad, Mohammad H. Baziar, Alireza Saedi Azizkandi

Abstract:

Rafts may be used when a low bearing capacity exists underneath the foundation and may be combined by piles in some special circumstances; such as to reduce settlements or high groundwater to control buoyancy. From structural point of view, these piles could be both connected or disconnected from the raft and are to be classified as Piled Rafts (PR) or Disconnected Piled Rafts (DPR). Although the researches about the behavior of piled rafts subjected to vertical loading is really extensive, in the context of dynamic load and earthquake loading, the studies are very limited. In this study, to clarify these foundations’ performance under dynamic loading, series of Shaking Table tests have been performed. The square raft and four piles in connected and disconnected configurations were used in dry silica sand and the model was experimented using a shaking table under 1-g conditions. Moreover, numerical investigation using finite element software have been conducted to better understand the differences and advantages. Our observations demonstrates that in connected Piled Rafts piles have to bear greater amount of moment in their upper parts, however this moments are approximately 40% lower in disconnected piled rafts in the same conditions and loading. Considering the Rafts’ lateral movement which be of crucial importance in foundations performance evaluation, connected piled rafts show much better performance with about 30% less lateral movement. Further, it was observed on confirmed both through laboratory tests and numerical analysis, that adding the superstructure over the piled raft foundation the raft separates from the soil and it significantly increases rocking of the raft which was observed to be the main reason of increase in piles’ moments under superstructure interaction with the foundation.

Keywords: Piled Rafts (PR), Disconnected Piled Rafts (DPR), dynamic loading, shaking table, seismic performance

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978 Proposal of Analytical Model for the Seismic Performance Evaluation of Reinforced Concrete Frames with Coupled Cross-laminated Timber Infill Panels

Authors: Velázquez Alejandro, Pradhan Sujan, Yoon Rokhyun, Sanada Yasushi

Abstract:

The utilization of new materials as an alternative solution to decrease the environmental impact of the construction industry has been gaining more relevance in the architectural design and construction industry. One such material is cross-laminated timber (CLT), an engineered timber solution that excels for its faster construction times, workability, lightweight, and capacity for carbon storage. This material is usually used alone for the entire structure or combined with steel frames, but a hybrid with reinforced concrete (RC) is rarer. Since RC is one of the most used materials worldwide, a hybrid with CLT would allow further utilization of the latter, and in the process, it would help reduce the environmental impact of RC construction to achieve a sustainable society, but first, the structural performance of such hybrids must be understood. This paper focuses on proposing a model to predict the seismic performance of RC frames with CLT panels as infills. A series of static horizontal cyclic loading experiments were conducted on two 40% scale specimens of reinforced concrete frames with and without CLT panels at Osaka University, Japan. An analytical model was created to simulate the seismic performance of the RC frame with CLT infill based on the experimental results. The proposed model was verified by comparing the experimental and analytical results, showing that the load-deformation relationship and the failure mechanism agreed well with limited error. Hence, the proposed analytical model can be implemented for the seismic performance evaluation of the RC frames with CLT infill.

Keywords: analytical model, multi spring, performance evaluation, reinforced concrete, rocking mechanism, wooden wall

Procedia PDF Downloads 84
977 Neutron Irradiated Austenitic Stainless Steels: An Applied Methodology for Nanoindentation and Transmission Electron Microscopy Studies

Authors: P. Bublíkova, P. Halodova, H. K. Namburi, J. Stodolna, J. Duchon, O. Libera

Abstract:

Neutron radiation-induced microstructural changes cause degradation of mechanical properties and the lifetime reduction of reactor internals during nuclear power plant operation. Investigating the effects of neutron irradiation on mechanical properties of the irradiated material (hardening, embrittlement) is challenging and time-consuming. Although the fast neutron spectrum has the major influence on microstructural properties, the thermal neutron effect is widely investigated owing to Irradiation-Assisted Stress Corrosion Cracking firstly observed in BWR stainless steels. In this study, 300-series austenitic stainless steels used as material for NPP's internals were examined after neutron irradiation at ~ 15 dpa. Although several nanoindentation experimental publications are available to determine the mechanical properties of ion irradiated materials, less is available on neutron irradiated materials at high dpa tested in hot-cells. In this work, we present particular methodology developed to determine the mechanical properties of neutron irradiated steels by nanoindentation technique. Furthermore, radiation-induced damage in the specimens was investigated by High Resolution - Transmission Electron Microscopy (HR-TEM) that showed the defect features, particularly Frank loops, cavity microstructure, radiation-induced precipitates and radiation-induced segregation. The results of nanoindentation measurements and associated nanoscale defect features showed the effect of irradiation-induced hardening. We also propose methodologies to optimized sample preparation for nanoindentation and microscotructural studies.

Keywords: nanoindentation, thermal neutrons, radiation hardening, transmission electron microscopy

Procedia PDF Downloads 144
976 An Analysis of the Impact of Government Budget Deficits on Economic Performance. A Zimbabwean Perspective

Authors: Tafadzwa Shumba, Rose C. Nyatondo, Regret Sunge

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This research analyses the impact of budget deficits on the economic performance of Zimbabwe. The study employs the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) confines testing method to co-integration and long-run estimation using time series data from 1980-2018. The Augmented Dick Fuller (ADF) and the Granger approach were used to testing for stationarity and causality among the factors. Co-integration test results affirm a long term association between GDP development rate and descriptive factors. Causality test results show a unidirectional connection between budget shortfall to GDP development and bi-directional causality amid debt and budget deficit. This study also found unidirectional causality from debt to GDP growth rate. ARDL estimates indicate a significantly positive long term and significantly negative short term impact of budget shortfall on GDP. This suggests that budget deficits have a short-run growth retarding effect and a long-run growth-inducing effect. The long-run results follow the Keynesian theory that posits that fiscal deficits result in an increase in GDP growth. Short-run outcomes follow the neoclassical theory. In light of these findings, the government is recommended to minimize financing of recurrent expenditure using a budget deficit. To achieve sustainable growth and development, the government needs to spend an absorbable budget deficit focusing on capital projects such as the development of human capital and infrastructure.

Keywords: ARDL, budget deficit, economic performance, long run

Procedia PDF Downloads 74