Search results for: risk modelling

Authors: Abbas Sedighinejad, Hossein Khoshrang, Mohammad Haghighi, Ali Ashraf, Mostafa Saeedinia, Gelareh Biazar, Zahra Atrkarroushan, Mahdi Ajdadi

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Background: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) as an alarming attack broke out in China and spread rapidly worldwide. Objectives: Based on a theory indicating the correlation between some viral diseases and blood types, we investigated the relationship between blood groups and coronavirus infection risk in Guilan Province, Iran. Methods: Retrospectively, all the files of the admitted patients with suspected COVID-19, in peak conditions of the disease between March 1 and May 30, 2020, were reviewed using the Census method. The required data, including epidemiological and clinical information and outcomes, were obtained from electronic records. Results: A total of 249 cases were analyzed, of whom 109 were collected from governmental centers, and the rest were collected from private hospitals. The most common co-morbidity was diabetes with 71 (37.6%) cases and the main symptom at the admission time was dyspnea with 170 (24.5%) cases. Of the total patients, 155 (62.2%) were discharged, and the rest died. The most common blood group among our patients was O Rh-positive with 91 (36.5%) cases. No meaningful correlation was found between outcomes and blood groups in terms of ABO types (P = 0.89) or Rh factor (P = 0.456). The Rh-positive proportion was significantly higher in the COVID-19 cases than in the general population (P = 0.038). Conclusions: We found that the Rh-positive proportion was significantly higher in the COVID-19 cases than in the healthy individuals. However, no correlation was observed between the groups regarding ABO typing.

Keywords: ABO blood group, COVID 19, association, personal protection

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Authors: Khalil Aryanfar, Shahrzad Sanjari, Pariya Gholipor, Elmira Hafez

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The present study aimed to investigate and compare the characteristics of entrepreneurship among students in senior secondary schools in the academic year 2008-2009 in Tabriz city. Research employed survey method respectively. The study population consisted of all students in the senior branch of theoretical, technical, professional and vocational (1033 patients) were included. Sample size of 493 was calculated according to Morgan table. Sampling method was random cluster and stratified sampling. Data collected by researcher made questionnaire based on the theory of MC clleland (1963) and Brvkhavs (1980). These tools would indicators be for achievement, Independence, disposition, creativity, risk-taking, self-control, tolerance for ambiguity, team work approach in the future. To determine the psychometric properties of the questionnaire, content validity of the survey was approved by relevant experts. In addition, to estimate the internal consistency of Cronbach's alpha coefficient was calculated for 84% of total inventory. Collected data Using mean, standard deviation and were analyzed by ANOVA. The results showed that there is a significant difference between students' entrepreneurial potential fields of theoretical, technical, professional and vocational level (0/01).

Keywords: entrepreneurship, achievement motivation, risk taking, creativity, self-control, independence, tolerance of ambiguity, foresight

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Authors: Helen Pushkarskaya, David Tolin, Lital Ruderman, Ariel Kirshenbaum, J. MacLaren Kelly, Christopher Pittenger, Ifat Levy

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Obsessive-Compulsive Disorder (OCD) produces profound morbidity. Difficulties with decision making and intolerance of uncertainty are prominent clinical features of OCD. The nature and etiology of these deficits are poorly understood. We used a well-validated choice task, grounded in behavioral economic theory, to investigate differences in valuation and value-based choice during decision making under uncertainty in 20 unmedicated participants with OCD and 20 matched healthy controls. Participants’ choices were used to assess individual decision-making characteristics. Compared to controls, individuals with OCD were less consistent in their choices and less able to identify options that were unambiguously preferable. These differences correlated with symptom severity. OCD participants did not differ from controls in how they valued uncertain options when outcome probabilities were known (risk) but were more likely than controls to avoid uncertain options when these probabilities were imprecisely specified (ambiguity). These results suggest that the underlying neural mechanisms of valuation and value-based choices during decision-making are abnormal in OCD. Individuals with OCD show elevated intolerance of uncertainty, but only when outcome probabilities are themselves uncertain. Future research focused on the neural valuation network, which is implicated in value-based computations, may provide new neurocognitive insights into the pathophysiology of OCD. Deficits in decision-making processes may represent a target for therapeutic intervention.

Keywords: obsessive compulsive disorder, decision-making, uncertainty intolerance, risk aversion, ambiguity aversion, valuation

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Authors: Ariane Plaisance, Holly O. Witteman, Patrick Michel Archambault

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Upon admission to an intensive care unit (ICU), all patients should discuss their wishes concerning life-sustaining interventions (e.g., cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR)). Without such discussions, interventions that prolong life at the cost of decreasing its quality may be used without appropriate guidance from patients. We employed user-centered design to adapt an existing decision aid (DA) about CPR to create a novel wiki-based DA adapted to the context of a single ICU and tailored to individual patient’s risk factors. During Phase 1, we conducted three weeks of ethnography of the decision-making context in our ICU to identify clinician and patient needs for a decision aid. During this time, we observed five dyads of intensivists and patients discussing their wishes concerning life-sustaining interventions. We also conducted semi-structured interviews with the attending intensivists in this ICU. During Phase 2, we conducted three rounds of rapid prototyping involving 15 patients and 11 other allied health professionals. We recorded discussions between intensivists and patients and used a standardized observation grid to collect patients’ comments and sociodemographic data. We applied content analysis to field notes, verbatim transcripts and the completed observation grids. Each round of observations and rapid prototyping iteratively informed the design of the next prototype. We also used the programming architecture of a wiki platform to embed the GO-FAR prediction rule programming code that we linked to a risk graphics software to better illustrate outcome risks calculated. During Phase I, we identified the need to add a section in our DA concerning invasive mechanical ventilation in addition to CPR because both life-sustaining interventions were often discussed together by physicians. During Phase II, we produced a context-adapted decision aid about CPR and mechanical ventilation that includes a values clarification section, questions about the patient’s functional autonomy prior to admission to the ICU and the functional decline that they would judge acceptable upon hospital discharge, risks and benefits of CPR and invasive mechanical ventilation, population-level statistics about CPR, a synthesis section to help patients come to a final decision and an online calculator based on the GO-FAR prediction rule. Even though the three rounds of rapid prototyping led to simplifying the information in our DA, 60% (n= 3/5) of the patients involved in the last cycle still did not understand the purpose of the DA. We also identified gaps in the discussion and documentation of patients’ preferences concerning life-sustaining interventions (e.g.,. CPR, invasive mechanical ventilation). The final version of our DA and our online wiki-based GO-FAR risk calculator using the IconArray.com risk graphics software are available online at www.wikidecision.org and are ready to be adapted to other contexts. Our results inform producers of decision aids on the use of wikis and user-centered design to develop DAs that are better adapted to users’ needs. Further work is needed on the creation of a video version of our DA. Physicians will also need the training to use our DA and to develop shared decision-making skills about goals of care.

Keywords: ethnography, intensive care units, life-sustaining therapies, user-centered design

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Authors: P. Venkata Karthik, B. Kranthi Kumar

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Fly ash is a solid waste product of coal based electric power generating plants. Fly ash is the finest of coal ash particles and it is transported from the combustion chamber by exhaust gases. Fly ash is removed by particulate emission control devices such as electrostatic precipitators or filter fabric bag-houses. It is a fine material with spherical particles. Large quantities of fly ash discharged from coal-fired power stations are a major problem not only in terms of scarcity of land available for its disposal, but also in environmental aspects. Fly ash can be one of the alternatives and can be a viable option to use as a filling material. This paper contains the problems associated with fly ash generation, need for its management and the efficacy of fly ash composite as a backfilling material. By conducting suitable geotechnical investigations and numerical modelling techniques, the fly ash composite material was tested. It also contains case studies of typical Indian opencast and underground coal mines.

Keywords: backfilling, fly ash, high concentration slurry disposal, power plant, void infilling

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Authors: Krzysztof J. Czarnocki, E. Czarnocka, K. Szaniawska

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Main goal of the research project is Scaffold Use Risk Assessment Model (SURAM) formulation, developed for the assessment of risk levels as a various construction process stages with various work trades. Finally, in 2016, the project received financing by the National Center for Research and development according to PBS3/A2/19/2015–Research Grant. The presented data, calculations and analyzes discussed in this paper were created as a result of the completion on the first and second phase of the PBS3/A2/19/2015 project. Method: One of the arms of the research project is the assessment of worker visual concentration on the sight zones as well as risky visual point inadequate observation. In this part of research, the mobile eye-tracker was used to monitor the worker observation zones. SMI Eye Tracking Glasses is a tool, which allows us to analyze in real time and place where our eyesight is concentrated on and consequently build the map of worker's eyesight concentration during a shift. While the project is still running, currently 64 construction sites have been examined, and more than 600 workers took part in the experiment including monitoring of typical parameters of the work regimen, workload, microclimate, sound vibration, etc. Full equipment can also be useful in more advanced analyses. Because of that technology we have verified not only main focus of workers eyes during work on or next to scaffolding, but we have also examined which changes in the surrounding environment during their shift influenced their concentration. In the result of this study it has been proven that only up to 45.75% of the shift time, workers’ eye concentration was on one of three work-related areas. Workers seem to be distracted by noisy vehicles or people nearby. In opposite to our initial assumptions and other authors’ findings, we observed that the reflective parts of the scaffoldings were not more recognized by workers in their direct workplaces. We have noticed that the red curbs were the only well recognized part on a very few scaffoldings. Surprisingly on numbers of samples, we have not recognized any significant number of concentrations on those curbs. Conclusion: We have found the eye-tracking method useful for the construction of the SURAM model in the risk perception and worker’s behavior sub-modules. We also have found that the initial worker's stress and work visual conditions seem to be more predictive for assessment of the risky developing situation or an accident than other parameters relating to a work environment.

Keywords: accident assessment model, eye tracking, occupational safety, scaffolding

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Authors: Darynne Madison Dela Gente, Panayiota Courelli

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Similarities in behavior between perpetrators of school violence and those with a parent in prison raise concern when considering the root causes of a student’s violent behavior. Dealing with parental incarceration is highly consequential on a student’s emotional well-being and may cause aggressive behavior that can lead to them becoming a perpetrator of school violence. These students are more likely to have interpersonal issues, antisocial tendencies, and a hostile demeanor, which are factors that closely align with indicators of an offender of violence. Developmental risk factors of parental incarceration are heavily understudied and often overlooked. This literature review aims to analyze the correlation between having a parent in prison and exhibiting physical or verbal aggression in a school environment. Furthermore, it strives to bring awareness to the inconsistencies in existing research and encourage a greater depth of study of the behavioral impacts, specifically in an academic setting. Furthermore, it will elaborate on the effectiveness of current intervention programs, such as Project Avary, Hope House, Kids Mates Inc., and Girl Scouts Beyond Bars, which provide immense support, as well as proposed methods of implementation in a school environment. Creating a space for these students to cope ultimately aids in the prevention of violent behaviors and intergenerational incarceration. Access to intervention programs, especially in schools located in areas with high rates of incarceration, would greatly reduce the risk of these students becoming perpetrators of school violence.

Keywords: adolescent behavior, adolescent mental health, parental incarceration, school violence prevention

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Authors: Neha Gupta

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Landslide vulnerability is considered as the crucial parameter for the assessment of landslide risk. The term vulnerability defined as the damage or degree of elements at risk of different dimensions, i.e., physical, social, economic, and environmental dimensions. Himalaya region is very prone to multi-hazard such as floods, forest fires, earthquakes, and landslides. With the increases in fatalities rates, loss of infrastructure, and economy due to landslide in the Himalaya region, leads to the assessment of vulnerability. In this study, a methodology to measure the combination of vulnerability dimension, i.e., social vulnerability, physical vulnerability, and environmental vulnerability in one framework. A combined result of these vulnerabilities has rarely been carried out. But no such approach was applied in the Indian Scenario. The methodology was applied in an area of east Sikkim Himalaya, India. The physical vulnerability comprises of building footprint layer extracted from remote sensing data and Google Earth imaginary. The social vulnerability was assessed by using population density based on land use. The land use map was derived from a high-resolution satellite image, and for environment vulnerability assessment NDVI, forest, agriculture land, distance from the river were assessed from remote sensing and DEM. The classes of social vulnerability, physical vulnerability, and environment vulnerability were normalized at the scale of 0 (no loss) to 1 (loss) to get the homogenous dataset. Then the Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA) was used to assign individual weights to each dimension and then integrate it into one frame. The final vulnerability was further classified into four classes from very low to very high.

Keywords: landslide, multi-criteria analysis, MCA, physical vulnerability, social vulnerability

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Authors: Mojtaba Zabihi, Stephen Munro, Jonathan Little, Ri Li, Joshua Brinkerhoff, Sina Kheirkhah

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Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) identified dental workers at the highest risk of contracting COVID-19. This is because aerosol-generating procedures (AGP) during dental practices generate aerosols ( < 5µm) and droplets. These particles travel at varying speeds, in varying directions, and for varying durations. If these particles bear infectious viruses, their spreading causes airborne transmission of the virus in the dental room, exposing dentists, hygienists, dental assistants, and even other dental clinic clients to the infection risk. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation of two-phase flows based on a discrete phase model (DPM) is carried out to study the spreading of aerosol and droplets in a dental room. The simulation includes momentum, heat, and mass transfers between the particles and the airflow. Two simulations are conducted and compared. One simulation focuses on the effects of room ventilation in winter and summer on the particles' travel. The other simulation focuses on the control of aerosol and droplets' spreading. A suction collector is added near the source of aerosol and droplets, creating a flow sink in order to remove the particles. The effects of the suction flow on the aerosol and droplet travel are studied. The suction flow can remove aerosols and also reduce the spreading of droplets.

Keywords: aerosols, computational fluid dynamics, COVID-19, dental, discrete phase model, droplets, two-phase flow

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Authors: Florim Grajcevci, Flamur Grajcevci, Fatos Tahiri, Hamdi Kurteshi

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The territory of Kosova is actually included in one of the most seismic-prone regions in Europe. Therefore, the earthquakes are not so rare in Kosova; and when they occurred, the consequences have been rather destructive. The importance of assessing the seismic resistance of existing masonry structures has drawn strong and growing interest in the recent years. Engineering included those of Vulnerability, Loss of Buildings and Risk assessment, are also of a particular interest. This is due to the fact that this rapidly developing field is related to great impact of earthquakes on the socioeconomic life in seismic-prone areas, as Kosova and Prishtina are, too. Such work paper for Prishtina city may serve as a real basis for possible interventions in historic buildings as are museums, mosques, old residential buildings, in order to adequately strengthen and/or repair them, by reducing the seismic risk within acceptable limits. The procedures of the vulnerability assessment of building structures have concentrated on structural system, capacity, and the shape of layout and response parameters. These parameters will provide expected performance of the very important existing building structures on the vulnerability and the overall behavior during the earthquake excitations. The structural systems of existing historical buildings in Pristina, Kosovo, are dominantly unreinforced brick or stone masonry with very high risk potential from the expected earthquakes in the region. Therefore, statistical analysis based on the observed damage-deformation, cracks, deflections and critical building elements, would provide more reliable and accurate results for the regional assessments. The analytical technique was used to develop a preliminary evaluation methodology for assessing seismic vulnerability of the respective structures. One of the main objectives is also to identify the buildings that are highly vulnerable to damage caused from inadequate seismic performance-response. Hence, the damage scores obtained from the derived vulnerability functions will be used to categorize the evaluated buildings as “stabile”, “intermediate”, and “unstable”. The vulnerability functions are generated based on the basic damage inducing parameters, namely number of stories (S), lateral stiffness (LS), capacity curve of total building structure (CCBS), interstory drift (IS) and overhang ratio (OR).

Keywords: vulnerability, ductility, seismic microzone, ductility, energy efficiency

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Authors: J. Fernandez, R. Fernandez de Canete, J. Perea-Paizal, J. C. Ramos-Diaz

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The high prevalence of cardiovascular diseases has provoked a raising interest in the development of mathematical models in order to evaluate the cardiovascular function both under physiological and pathological conditions. In this paper, a physical model of the cardiovascular system with intrinsic regulation is presented and implemented by using the object-oriented Modelica simulation software tools.  For this task, a multi-compartmental system previously validated with physiological data has been built, based on the interconnection of cardiovascular elements such as resistances, capacitances and pumping among others, by following an electrohydraulic analogy. The results obtained under both physiological and pathological scenarios provide an easy interpretative key to analyze the hemodynamic behavior of the patient. The described approach represents a valuable tool in the teaching of physiology for graduate medical and nursing students among others.

Keywords: cardiovascular system, MODELICA simulation software, physical modelling, teaching tool

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Authors: V. Mathad, S. Shivprasad, P. Shivsharannappa, M. K. Patil

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Introduction: Non-communicable diseases are emerging diseases in India. Government of India launched National Programme for Prevention and Control of Cardiovascular Diseases, Cancer and Stroke (NPCDCS) during the year 2008. The aim of the programme was to reduce the burden of non communicable diseases by health promotion and prompt treatment. Objective: The present study was intended to assess the impact of National Program for prevention and control of Cardiovascular Diseases, Diabetes, Cancer and Stroke Programme on biochemical and physiological factors influencing Type 2 diabetes in Kalaburagi District. Material and Method: NCD Clinic was established at District Hospital during April 2016. All the patients attending District Hospital Kalaburagi above the age of 30 years are screened for Non Communicable Diseases under NPCDCS Programme. A total sample of 7447 patients attending NCD Clinic situated at Kalaburagi district was assessed in this study. Pre structured and pretested schedule seeking information was obtained from all the patients by the counselor working under NPCDCS programme. All the Patients attending District Hospital were screened for Diabetes using Glucometer at NCD clinic. The suspected cases were further confirmed through Biochemical investigations like Fasting Blood glucose, HBA1c, Urine Glucose, Kidney Function test. SPSS 20 version was used for analysis of data. Chi square test, P values and odds ratio was used to study the association of factors. Results: A Total of 7447 patients attended NCD clinic during the year 2017-18 were analyzed, Diabetes was seen among 3028 individuals were as comorbidities along with Hypertension was seen among 757 individuals. The mean age of the population was 50 ± 2.84. 3440(46.2%) were males whereas Female constituted 4007(53.8%) of population. The incidence and prevalence of Diabetes being 8.6 and 12.8 respectively. Diabetes was more commonly seen during the age group of 40 to 69 years. Diabetes was significantly associated with Age group 40 to 69 years, obesity and female gender (p < 0.05). The risk of developing Hypertension and comorbidity conditions of hypertension and Diabetes was 1.224 and 1.305 times higher among males, whereas the risk of diabetes was 1.127 higher among females as compared to males. Conclusion: The screening for NCD has significantly increased after launching of NPCDCS programme. NCD was significantly associated with obesity, female gender, increased age as well as comorbid conditions like hypertension and tuberculosis.

Keywords: non-communicable diseases, NPCDCS programme, type 2 Diabetes, physiological factors

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Authors: C. Amer, M. Sahin

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The design of an optimised horizontal axis 5-meter-long wind turbine rotor blade in according with IEC 61400-2 standard is a research and development project in order to fulfil the requirements of high efficiency of torque from wind production and to optimise the structural components to the lightest and strongest way possible. For this purpose, a research study is presented here by focusing on the structural characteristics of a composite wind turbine blade via finite element modelling and analysis tools. In this work, first, the required data regarding the general geometrical parts are gathered. Then, the airfoil geometries are created at various sections along the span of the blade by using CATIA software to obtain the two surfaces, namely; the suction and the pressure side of the blade in which there is a hat shaped fibre reinforced plastic spar beam, so-called chassis starting at 0.5m from the root of the blade and extends up to 4 m and filled with a foam core. The root part connecting the blade to the main rotor differential metallic hub having twelve hollow threaded studs is then modelled. The materials are assigned as two different types of glass fabrics, polymeric foam core material and the steel-balsa wood combination for the root connection parts. The glass fabrics are applied using hand wet lay-up lamination with epoxy resin as METYX L600E10C-0, is the unidirectional continuous fibres and METYX XL800E10F having a tri-axial architecture with fibres in the 0,+45,-45 degree orientations in a ratio of 2:1:1. Divinycell H45 is used as the polymeric foam. The finite element modelling of the blade is performed via MSC PATRAN software with various meshes created on each structural part considering shell type for all surface geometries, and lumped mass were added to simulate extra adhesive locations. For the static analysis, the boundary conditions are assigned as fixed at the root through aforementioned bolts, where for dynamic analysis both fixed-free and free-free boundary conditions are made. By also taking the mesh independency into account, MSC NASTRAN is used as a solver for both analyses. The static analysis aims the tip deflection of the blade under its own weight and the dynamic analysis comprises normal mode dynamic analysis performed in order to obtain the natural frequencies and corresponding mode shapes focusing the first five in and out-of-plane bending and the torsional modes of the blade. The analyses results of this study are then used as a benchmark prior to modal testing, where the experiments over the produced wind turbine rotor blade has approved the analytical calculations.

Keywords: dynamic analysis, fiber reinforced composites, horizontal axis wind turbine blade, hand-wet layup, modal testing

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Authors: Tatyana Gavrilova, Vadim Onufriev

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Knowledge-based systems’ design requires the developer’s owning the advanced analytical skills. The efficient development of that skills within university courses needs a deep understanding of main pitfalls and drawbacks, which students usually make during their analytical work in form of visual modeling. Thus, it was necessary to hold an analysis of 5-th year students’ learning exercises within courses of 'Intelligent systems' and 'Knowledge engineering' in Saint-Petersburg Polytechnic University. The analysis shows that both lack of system thinking skills and methodological mistakes in course design cause the errors that are discussed in the paper. The conclusion contains an exploration of the issues and topics necessary and sufficient for the implementation of the improved practices in educational design for future curricula of teaching programs.

Keywords: knowledge based systems, knowledge engineering, students’ errors, visual modeling

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Authors: Wilson Handoko, Farshid Pahlevani, Isha Singla, Himanish Kumar, Veena Sahajwalla

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Aluminium bronze alloys are well known for their superior abrasion, tensile strength and non-magnetic properties, due to the co-presence of iron (Fe) and aluminium (Al) as alloying elements and have been commonly used in many industrial applications. However, continuous exposure to the marine environment will accelerate the risk of a tendency to Al bronze alloys parts failures. Although a higher level of corrosion resistance properties can be achieved by modifying its elemental composition, it will come at a price through the complex manufacturing process and increases the risk of reducing the ductility of Al bronze alloy. In this research, the use of ironmaking slag and waste plastic as the input source for surface modification of Al bronze alloy was implemented. Microstructural analysis conducted using polarised light microscopy and scanning electron microscopy (SEM) that is equipped with energy dispersive spectroscopy (EDS). An electrochemical corrosion test was carried out through Tafel polarisation method and calculation of protection efficiency against the base-material was determined. Results have indicated that uniform modified surface which is as the result of selective diffusion process, has enhanced corrosion resistance properties up to 12.67%. This approach has opened a new opportunity to access various industrial utilisations in commercial scale through minimising the dependency on natural resources by transforming waste sources into the protective coating in environmentally friendly and cost-effective ways.

Keywords: aluminium bronze, waste-based surface modification, tafel polarisation, corrosion resistance

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Authors: Amit Chaudhary, B. S. Yadav, P. K. Maurya, A. M., S. Srivastava, S. Singh, A. Mani

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Cold shock protein A (CspA) is major cold inducible protein present in Escherichia coli. The protein is involved in stabilizing secondary structure of RNA by working as chaperone during cold temperature. Two RNA binding motifs play key role in the stabilizing activity. This study aimed to investigate implications of low temperature on structure and RNA binding activity of E. coli CspA. Molecular dynamics simulations were performed to compare the stability of the protein at 37°C and 10 °C. The protein was mutated at RNA binding motifs and docked with RNA to assess the stability of both complexes. Results suggest that CspA as well as CspA-RNA complex is more stable at low temperature. It was also confirmed that RNP1 and RNP2 play key role in RNA binding.

Keywords: CspA, homology modelling, mutation, molecular dynamics simulation

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Authors: Amir Ikram, Faisal Ijaz, Qin Su

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The empirical study was undertaken to explore the determinants of non-performing loans (NPLs) of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) sector held by the commercial banks. Primary data was collected through well-structured survey questionnaire from credit analysts/bankers of 42 branches of 9 commercial banks, operating in the district of Lahore (Pakistan), for 2014-2015. Selective descriptive analysis and Pearson chi-square technique were used to illustrate and evaluate the significance of different variables affecting NPLs. Branch age, duration of the loan, and credit policy were found to be significant determinants of NPLs. The study proposes that bank-specific and SME-specific microeconomic variables directly influence NPLs, while macroeconomic factors act as intermediary variables. Framework exhibiting causal nexus of NPLs was also drawn on the basis of empirical findings. The results elaborate various origins of NPLs and suggest that they are primarily instigated by the loan sanctioning procedure of the financial institution. The paper also underlines the risk management practices adopted by the bank at branch level to averse the risk of loan default. Empirical investigation of bank-specific microeconomic factors of NPLs with respect to Pakistan’s economy is the novelty of the study. Broader strategic policy implications are provided for credit analysts and entrepreneurs.

Keywords: commercial banks, microeconomic factors, non-performing loans, small and medium enterprises

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Authors: Muneer Abbad

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This research explains the e-learning usage in a university in Jordan. Unified theory of acceptance and use of technology (UTAUT) model has been used as a base model to explain the usage. UTAUT is a model of individual acceptance that is compiled mainly from different models of technology acceptance. This research is the initial part from full explanations of the users' acceptance model that use Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) method to explain the users' acceptance of the e-learning systems based on UTAUT model. In this part data has been collected and prepared for further analysis. The main factors of UTAUT model has been tested as different factors using exploratory factor analysis (EFA). The second phase will be confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) and SEM to explain the users' acceptance of e-learning systems.

Keywords: e-learning, moodle, adoption, Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT)

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Authors: Delphine Duval, Morgan Mangeas, Charlie Huveneers, Adam Barnett, Laurent Vigliola

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The global number of shark bites has increased over the past four decades with, however, high regional variability both in space and time. A systematic review, aligned with the 2020 PRISMA guidelines, explored the peer-reviewed literature published between 1960 and 2023 to identify factors potentially explaining trends in human-shark interactions. Results revealed that variations in the frequency of human-shark interactions could be explained by a plethora of factors, including changes in prey availability, environmental conditions, human and shark population density and behavior, as well as habitat destruction. However, to our best knowledge, only five studies have conducted statistical assessments of the relative contribution of these factors. The increased number in human-shark interactions and the frequent clusters of shark bites within short timeframes offer opportunities to test the causative factors that may explain trends in unprovoked shark bites. it study aims to evaluate the impact of marine protected areas (MPAs) on the number of human-shark interactions, using data from the Global Shark Attack File and the World Database on Protected Areas. Results indicate contrasting effects of MPAs at different spatial scales. Enhancing our understanding of the factors contributing to shark bites is essential for improving risk reduction policies for humans and conservation plans for shark populations.

Keywords: unprovoked shark interactions, marine protected areas, attack risk, human-wildlife interaction

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Authors: Dao Phuong Nam, Do Trong Tan, Pham Tam Thanh, Le Duy Tung, Tran Hoang Anh

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This paper considers the problem of cascade control system for unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). Due to the complicated modelling technique of UAV, it is necessary to separate them into two subsystems. The proposed cascade control structure is a hierarchical scheme including a robust control for inner subsystem based on H infinity theory and trajectory generator using genetic algorithm (GA), outer loop control law based on multi-parametric programming (MPP) technique to overcome the disadvantage of a big amount of calculations. Simulation results are presented to show that the equivalent path has been found and obtained by proposed cascade control scheme.

Keywords: genetic algorithm, GA, H infinity, multi-parametric programming, MPP, unmanned aerial vehicles, UAVs

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Authors: Faheem Ur Rehman, Muhammad Khalil Khan, Miao Qing

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This study investigated the asymmetric links and portfolio strategies between green bonds and the markets of three different cryptocurrencies, i.e., green, Islamic, and conventional, using data from January 1, 2018, to April 8, 2022, and employing asymmetric TVP-VAR model to quantify risk spillovers in the network analysis. In addition, we use the minimum variance, minimum correlation, and minimum connectedness methodologies to assess the portfolio implications. The results of the asymmetric dynamic connectedness index (TCI) model show that by adopting cryptocurrencies for digital finance, risk spillovers are found to be reduced. The findings of net directional connectedness demonstrate that during the study period, green bonds consistently get return spillovers from all other network variables. Positive return spillovers are bigger in magnitude than negative ones. These results imply that the influence of the green bond market on the cryptocurrency markets is decreasing. Positive return spillovers generate higher connectedness values for (HG, BNB, and TRX) coins and persistent net recipients in the specific network. On the other hand, Cardano and ADA coins are persistent net transmitters in the system. XLM and MIOTA's responsibilities shift over time, and there is evidence of asymmetry when both positive and negative returns are considered. According to the pairwise portfolio weights, BNB vs. BTC has the largest portfolio weights in the system, followed by BNB vs. Ethereum, suggesting the best investment strategies in the network.

Keywords: asymmetric TVP-VAR, global sustainable index, cryptocurrency, portfolios

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Authors: Dipak Subedi, Anil Giri, Christine Whitt, Tia McDonald

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This study aims to understand the impact of the pandemic on the overall economic well-being of the agricultural sector of the United States. The two key metrics used to examine the economic well-being are the bankruptcy rate of the U.S. farm operations and the operating profit margin. One of the primary reasons for farm operations (in the U.S.) to file for bankruptcy is continuous negative profit or a significant decrease in profit. The pandemic caused significant supply and demand shocks in the domestic market. Furthermore, the ongoing trade disruptions, especially with China, also impacted the prices of agricultural commodities. The significantly reduced demand for ethanol and closure of meat processing plants affected both livestock and crop producers. This study uses data from courts to examine the bankruptcy rate over time of U.S. farm operations. Preliminary results suggest there wasn’t an increase in farm operations filing for bankruptcy in 2020. This was most likely because of record high Government payments to producers in 2020. The Federal Government made direct payments of more than $45 billion in 2020. One commonly used economic metric to measure farm profitability is the operating profit margin (OPM). Operating profit margin measures profitability as a share of the total value of production and government payments. The Economic Research Service of the United States Department of Agriculture defines a farm operation to be in a) a high-risk zone if the OPM is less than 10 percent and b) a low-risk zone if the OPM is higher than 25 percent. For this study, OPM was calculated for small, medium, and large-scale farm operations using the data from the Agriculture Resource Management Survey (OPM). Results show that except for small family farms, the share of farms in high-risk zone decreased in 2020 compared to the most recent non-pandemic year, 2019. This was most likely due to higher commodity prices at the end of 2020 and record-high government payments. Further investigation suggests a lower share of smaller farm operations receiving lower average government payments resulting in a large share (over 70 percent) being in the critical zone. This study should be of interest to multiple stakeholders, including policymakers across the globe, as it shows the resilience of the U.S. agricultural system as well as (some) impact of government payments.

Keywords: U.S. farm sector, COVID-19, operating profit margin, farm bankruptcy, ag finance, government payments to the farm sector

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Authors: Hashem Dehghanniri

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Crime scripting is a simple and effective crime modeling technique that aims to improve understanding of security analysts about security and crime incidents. Low-quality scripts provide a wrong, incomplete, or sophisticated understanding of the crime commission process, which oppose the purpose of their application, e.g., identifying effective and cost-efficient situational crime prevention (SCP) measures. One important and overlooked factor in generating quality scripts is the crime scripting method. This study investigates the problems within the existing crime scripting practices and proposes a crime scripting approach that contributes to generating quality crime scripts. It was validated by experienced crime scripters. This framework helps analysts develop better crime scripts and contributes to their effective application, e.g., SCP measures identification or policy-making.

Keywords: attack modelling, crime commission process, crime script, situational crime prevention

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Authors: Moqbil S. Alenazi, Magdy. M. Elkhateeb

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A comprehensive photometric study and evolutionary state for the newly discovered Beta Lyr systems V0487 Lac, V0566 Hya, and V0666 Lac were carried out by means of their first photometric observations. New times of minima were estimated from the observed light curves, and first (O-C) curves were established for all systems. A windows interface version of the Wilson and Devinney code (W-D) based on model atmospheres and a pass band prescription have been used for the radiative treatment. The accepted models reveal some absolute parameters for the studied systems, which are used in adopting the spectral type of the system's components and their evolutionary status. Distances to each system were calculated, and physical properties were estimated. Locations of the systems on the theoreticalmass–luminosity and mass–radius relations revealed a good fit for all systems components except for the secondary component of the system V0487 Lac.

Keywords: eclipsing binaries, light curve modelling, evolutionary state

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Authors: Kirsty Biggs, Peter Larsen-Disney

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Background: The UK cervical screening programme significantly reduces cancer mortality through the early detection of abnormal cells. Despite this, over a quarter of eligible women choose not to attend their appointment. Objective: To qualitatively explore patients’ barriers to attending cervical smear appointments and identify key trends of cervical screening behaviour, knowledge, and attitudes in primary and secondary care. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted to evaluate smear services in Brighton and Hove using questionnaires in general practice and colposcopy. 226 patients participated in the voluntary questionnaire between 10/11/2017 and 02/02/2018. 118 patients were recruited from general practice surgeries and 108 from the colposcopy department. Women were asked about their smear knowledge, self-perceived risks factors, prior experiences and reasons for non-attendance. Demographic data was also collected. Results: Approximately a third of women did not engage in smear testing services. This was consistent across primary and secondary care groups. Over 90% were aware of the role of the screening process in relation to cervical cancer; however, over two thirds believed the smear was also a tool to screen for other pathologies. The most commonly cited reasons for non-attendance were negative emotions or previous experiences. Inconvenient appointment times were also commonly described. In a comparison of attenders versus non-attenders previous negative experiences (p < 0.01) and number of identified risk factors (p = 0.02) were statistically significant with non-attenders describing more prior negative smears and identifying more risk factors. Smear knowledge, risk perception and perceived importance of screening were not significant. Negative previous experiences were described in relation to poor bedside manner, pain, embarrassment and staff competency. Conclusions: In contrary to the literature, our white Caucasian cohort experienced significant barriers to accessing smear services. Women’s prior negative experiences are overriding their perceived importance to attend the screening programme; therefore, efforts need to focus on improving clinical experiences through auditing tools, training and providing a supportive appointment setting. Positive changes can also be expected by improving appointment availabilities with extended hours and self-booking systems.

Keywords: barriers, cervical, Papanicolaou, screening, smear

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Authors: P. Ahuja, K. S. S. Sai Krishna

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There is a concern over the energy shortage in the modern societies as it is one of the primary necessities. Renewable energy, mainly biomass, is found to be one feasible solution as it is inexhaustible and clean energy source all over the world. Out of various methods, thermo chemical conversion is considered to be the most common and convenient method to extract energy from biomass. The thermo-chemical methods that are employed are gasification, liquefaction and combustion. On gasification biomass yields biogas, on liquefaction biomass yields bio-oil and on combustion biomass yields bio-char. Any attempt to biomass gasification, liquefaction or combustion calls for a good understanding of biomass pyrolysis. So, Irrespective of the method used the first step towards the thermo-chemical treatment of biomass is pyrolysis. Pyrolysis mainly converts the solid mass into liquid with gas and residual char as the byproducts. Liquid is used for the production of heat, power and many other chemicals whereas the gas and char can be used as fuels to generate heat.

Keywords: biomass, fluidisation, pyrolysis, simulation

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Authors: Yogesh D. Bansod, Jiri Bursa

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The quantitative study of cell mechanics is of paramount interest since it regulates the behavior of the living cells in response to the myriad of extracellular and intracellular mechanical stimuli. The novel experimental techniques together with robust computational approaches have given rise to new theories and models, which describe cell mechanics as a combination of biomechanical and biochemical processes. This review paper encapsulates the existing continuum-based computational approaches that have been developed for interpreting the mechanical responses of living cells under different loading and boundary conditions. The salient features and drawbacks of each model are discussed from both structural and biological points of view. This discussion can contribute to the development of even more precise and realistic computational models of cell mechanics based on continuum approaches or on their combination with microstructural approaches, which in turn may provide a better understanding of mechanotransduction in living cells.

Keywords: cell mechanics, computational models, continuum approach, mechanical models

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Authors: Frezer Alem Kebede

Abstract:

The notion of viewing ICT as merely support for the business process has shifted towards viewing ICT as a critical business enabler. As such, the need for ICT devices has increased, contributing to high electronic equipment acquisition and disposal. Hence, its use and disposal must be seen in light of environmental sustainability, i.e., in terms of green use and disposal. However, there are limited studies on green Use and Disposal framework to be used as guiding lens by organizations in developing countries. And this study endeavors to address that need taking one of the largest multinational ICT intensive company in the country. The design and development of this framework passed through several stages, initially factors affecting green use and disposal were identified after quantitative and qualitative data analysis then there were multiple brainstorming sessions for the design enhancement as participative modelling was employed. Given the difference in scope and magnitude of the challenges identified, the proposed framework approaches green use and disposal in four imperatives; strategically, tactically, operationally and through continuous improvement.

Keywords: energy efficiency, green disposal, green ICT, green use, green use and disposal framework, sustainability

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Authors: Min Ju Kim, Beom Jin Park, Deuk Jae Sung, Na Yeon Han, Kichoon Sim

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Purpose: The purpose of this study is to determine the significant magnetic resonance (MR) imaging factors of lateral pelvic lymph node (LPLN) on the assessment of survival outcomes of neoadjuvant combined chemotherapy and radiation therapy (CRT) in patients with mid/low rectal cancer. Materials and Methods: The institutional review board approved this retrospective study of 63 patients with mid/low rectal cancer who underwent MR before and after CRT and patient consent was not required. Surgery performed within 4 weeks after CRT. The location of LPLNs was divided into following four groups; 1) common iliac, 2) external iliac, 3) obturator, and 4) internal iliac lymph nodes. The short and long axis diameters, numbers, shape (ovoid vs round), signal intensity (homogenous vs heterogenous), margin (smooth vs irregular), and diffusion-weighted restriction of LPLN were analyzed on pre- and post-CRT images. For treatment response using size, lymph node groups were defined as group 1) short axis diameter ≤ 5mm on both MR, group 2) > 5mm change into ≤ 5mm after CRT, and group 3) persistent size > 5mm before and after CRT. Clinical findings were also evaluated. The disease-free survival and overall survival rate were evaluated and the risk factors for survival outcomes were analyzed using cox regression analysis. Results: Patients in the group 3 (persistent size >5mm) showed significantly lower survival rates than the group 1 and 2 (Disease-free survival rates of 36.1% and 78.8, 88.8%, p < 0.001). The size response (group 1-3), multiplicity of LPLN, the level of carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), patient’s age, T and N stage, vessel invasion, perineural invasion were significant factors affecting disease-free survival rate or overall survival rate using univariate analysis (p < 0.05). The persistent size (group 3) and multiplicity of LPLN were independent risk factors among MR imaging features influencing disease-free survival rate (HR = 10.087, p < 0.05; HR = 4.808, p < 0.05). Perineural invasion and T stage were shown as independent histologic risk factors (HR = 16.594, p < 0.05; HR = 15.891, p < 0.05). Conclusion: The persistent size greater than 5mm and multiplicity of LPLN on both pre- and post-MR after CRT were significant MR factors affecting survival outcomes in the patients with mid/low rectal cancer.

Keywords: rectal cancer, MRI, lymph node, combined chemoradiotherapy

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Authors: Francisco Duarte, Adelino Ferreira, Paulo Fael

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With the growing need for alternative energy sources, research into energy harvesting technologies has increased considerably in recent years. The particular case of energy harvesting on road pavements is a very recent area of research, with different technologies having been developed in recent years. However, none of them have presented high conversion efficiencies nor technical or economic viability. This paper deals with the development of a mechanical system to implement on a road pavement energy harvesting electromechanical device, to transmit energy from the device surface to an electrical generator. The main goal is to quantify the energy harvesting, transmission and conversion efficiency of the proposed system and compare it with existing systems. Conclusions about the system’s efficiency are presented.

Keywords: road pavement, energy harvesting, energy conversion, system modelling

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