Search results for: time series prediction

Authors: Klara Krizova, Rudolf Hela

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The topic of the article focuses on the evaluation of selected technological factors and their influence on resulting elasticity modulus of concrete. A series of various factors enter into the manufacturing process which, more or less, influences the elasticity modulus. This paper presents the results of concrete in which the influence of water coefficient and the size of maximum fraction of the aggregate on the static elasticity modulus were monitored. Part of selected results of the long-term programme was discussed in which a wide scope of various variants of proposals for the composition of concretes was evaluated.

Keywords: mix design, water-cement ratio, aggregate, modulus of elasticity

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Authors: Ayda Youssef, Tarek Rafaat, Iman zaky

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Purpose: Langerhans’ cell histiocytosis (LCH) is not uncommon pathology that implies aberrant proliferation of a specific dendritic (Langerhans) cell. These atypical but mature cells of monoclonal origin can infiltrate many sites of the body and may occur as localized lesions or as widespread systemic disease. Liver is one of the uncommon sites of affection. The twofold objective of this study is to illustrate the radiological presentation of this disease, and to compare these results with previously reported series. Methods and Materials: Between 2007 and 2012, 150 patients with biopsy-proven LCH were treated in our hospital, a paediatric cancer tertiary care center. A retrospective review of radiographic images and reports was performed. There were 33 patients with liver affection are stratified. All patients underwent imaging studies, mostly US and CT. A chart review was performed to obtain demographic, clinical and radiological data. They were analyzed and compared to other published series. Results: Retrospective assessment of 150 patients with LCH was performed, among them 33 patients were identified who had liver involvement. All these patients developed multisystemic disease; They were 12 females and 21 males with (n= 32), seven of them had marked hepatomegaly. Diffuse hypodense liver parenchyma was encountered in five cases, the periportal location has a certain predilection in cases of focal affection where three cases has a hypodense periportal soft tissue sheets, one of them associated with dilated biliary radicals, only one case has multiple focal lesions unrelated to portal tracts. On follow up of the patients, two cases show abnormal morphology of liver with bossy outline. Conclusion: LCH is a not infrequent disease. A high-index suspicion should be raised in the context of diagnosis of liver affection. A biopsy is recommended in the presence of radiological suspicion. Chemotherapy is the preferred therapeutic modality. Liver histiocytosis are not disease specific features but should be interpreted in conjunction with the clinical history and the results of biopsy. Clinical Relevance/Application: Radiologist should be aware of different patterns of hepatobiliary histiocytosis, Thus early diagnosis and proper management of patient can be conducted.

Keywords: langerhans’ cell histiocytosis, liver, medical and health sciences, radiology

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Authors: Yagya Murti Aryal, Bipin Adhikari, Pradeep Gyawali

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The Lesser Himalaya zone of Nepal consists of thrusting and folding belts, which play an important role in the sustainable management of groundwater in the Himalayan regions. The study area is located in the Dolakha and Ramechhap Districts of Bagmati Province, Nepal. Geologically, these districts are situated in the Lesser Himalayas and partly encompass the Higher Himalayan rock sequence, which includes low-grade to high-grade metamorphic rocks. Following the Gorkha Earthquake in 2015, numerous springs dried up, and many others are currently experiencing depletion due to the distortion of the natural groundwater flow. The primary objective of this study is to identify potential groundwater areas and determine suitable sites for artificial groundwater recharge. Two distinct statistical approaches were used to develop models: The Frequency Ratio (FR) and Shannon Entropy (SE) methods. The study utilized both primary and secondary datasets and incorporated significant role and controlling factors derived from field works and literature reviews. Field data collection involved spring inventory, soil analysis, lithology assessment, and hydro-geomorphology study. Additionally, slope, aspect, drainage density, and lineament density were extracted from a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) using GIS and transformed into thematic layers. For training and validation, 114 springs were divided into a 70/30 ratio, with an equal number of non-spring pixels. After assigning weights to each class based on the two proposed models, a groundwater potential map was generated using GIS, classifying the area into five levels: very low, low, moderate, high, and very high. The model's outcome reveals that over 41% of the area falls into the low and very low potential categories, while only 30% of the area demonstrates a high probability of groundwater potential. To evaluate model performance, accuracy was assessed using the Area under the Curve (AUC). The success rate AUC values for the FR and SE methods were determined to be 78.73% and 77.09%, respectively. Additionally, the prediction rate AUC values for the FR and SE methods were calculated as 76.31% and 74.08%. The results indicate that the FR model exhibits greater prediction capability compared to the SE model in this case study.

Keywords: groundwater potential mapping, frequency ratio, Shannon’s Entropy, Lesser Himalaya Zone, sustainable groundwater management

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Authors: Rui Calejo Rodrigues

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Building Refurbishing and Maintenance is a major area of knowledge ultimately dispensed to user/occupant criteria. The optimization of the service life of a building needs a special background to be assessed as it is one of those concepts that needs proficiency to be implemented. ISO 15686-2 Buildings and constructed assets - Service life planning: Part 2, Service life prediction procedures, states a factorial method based on deterministic data for building components life span. Major consequences result on a deterministic approach because users/occupants are not sensible to understand the end of components life span and so simply act on deterministic periods and so costly and resources consuming solutions do not meet global targets of planet sustainability. The estimation of 2 thousand million conventional buildings in the world, if submitted to a probabilistic method for service life planning rather than a deterministic one provide an immense amount of resources savings. Since 1989 the research team nowadays stating for CEES–Center for Building in Service Studies developed a methodology based on Montecarlo method for probabilistic approach regarding life span of building components, cost and service life care time spans. The research question of this deals with the importance of probabilistic approach of buildings life planning compared with deterministic methods. It is presented the mathematic model developed for buildings probabilistic lifespan approach and experimental data is obtained to be compared with deterministic data. Assuming that buildings lifecycle depends a lot on component replacement this methodology allows to conclude on the global impact of fixed replacements methodologies such as those on result of deterministic models usage. Major conclusions based on conventional buildings estimate are presented and evaluated under a sustainable perspective.

Keywords: building components life cycle, building maintenance, building sustainability, Montecarlo Simulation

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Authors: M. Mulumpwa, W. W. L. Jere, M. Lazaro, A. H. N. Mtethiwa

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The study considered Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) processes to select an appropriate stochastic model to forecast the monthly data from the Lake Malawi water levels for the period 1986 through 2015. The appropriate model was chosen based on SARIMA (p, d, q) (P, D, Q)S. The Autocorrelation function (ACF), Partial autocorrelation (PACF), Akaike Information Criteria (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), Box–Ljung statistics, correlogram and distribution of residual errors were estimated. The SARIMA (1, 1, 0) (1, 1, 1)12 was selected to forecast the monthly data of the Lake Malawi water levels from August, 2015 to December, 2021. The plotted time series showed that the Lake Malawi water levels are decreasing since 2010 to date but not as much as was the case in 1995 through 1997. The future forecast of the Lake Malawi water levels until 2021 showed a mean of 474.47 m ranging from 473.93 to 475.02 meters with a confidence interval of 80% and 90% against registered mean of 473.398 m in 1997 and 475.475 m in 1989 which was the lowest and highest water levels in the lake respectively since 1986. The forecast also showed that the water levels of Lake Malawi will drop by 0.57 meters as compared to the mean water levels recorded in the previous years. These results suggest that the Lake Malawi water level may not likely go lower than that recorded in 1997. Therefore, utilisation and management of water-related activities and programs among others on the lake should provide room for such scenarios. The findings suggest a need to manage the Lake Malawi jointly and prudently with other stakeholders starting from the catchment area. This will reduce impacts of anthropogenic activities on the lake’s water quality, water level, aquatic and adjacent terrestrial ecosystems thereby ensuring its resilience to climate change impacts.

Keywords: forecasting, Lake Malawi, water levels, water level fluctuation, climate change, anthropogenic activities

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Authors: Amir Shouri, Fereshteh Tabe

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Master planning and urban infrastructure’s thoughtful and sequential design strategies will play the major role in reducing the damages of natural disasters, war and or social/population related conflicts for cities. Defensive strategies have been revised during the history of mankind after having damages from natural depressions, war experiences and terrorist attacks on cities. Lessons learnt from Earthquakes, from 2 world war casualties in 20th century and terrorist activities of all times. Particularly, after Hurricane Sandy of New York in 2012 and September 11th attack on New York’s World Trade Centre (WTC) in 21st century, there have been series of serious collaborations between law making authorities, urban planners and architects and defence related organizations to firstly, getting prepared and/or prevent such activities and secondly, reduce the human loss and economic damages to minimum. This study will work on developing a model of planning for New York City, where its citizens will get minimum impacts in threat-full time with minimum economic damages to the city after the stress is passed. The main discussion in this proposal will focus on pre-hazard, hazard-time and post-hazard transformative policies and strategies that will reduce the “Life casualties” and will ease “Economic Recovery” in post-hazard conditions. This proposal is going to scrutinize that one of the key solutions in this path might be focusing on all overlaying possibilities on architectural platforms of three fundamental infrastructures, the transportation, the power related sources and defensive abilities on a dynamic-transformative framework that will provide maximum safety, high level of flexibility and fastest action-reaction opportunities in stressful periods of time. “Planning Fore Stress” is going to be done in an analytical, qualitative and quantitative work frame, where it will study cases from all over the world. Technology, Organic Design, Materiality, Urban forms, city politics and sustainability will be discussed in deferent cases in international scale. From the modern strategies of Copenhagen for living friendly with nature to traditional approaches of Indonesian old urban planning patterns, the “Iron Dome” of Israel to “Tunnels” in Gaza, from “Ultra-high-performance quartz-infused concrete” of Iran to peaceful and nature-friendly strategies of Switzerland, from “Urban Geopolitics” in cities, war and terrorism to “Design of Sustainable Cities” in the world, will all be studied with references and detailed look to analysis of each case in order to propose the most resourceful, practical and realistic solutions to questions on “New City Divisions”, “New City Planning and social activities” and “New Strategic Architecture for Safe Cities”. This study is a developed version of a proposal that was announced as winner at MoMA in 2013 in call for ideas for Rockaway after Sandy Hurricane took place.

Keywords: urban scale, city safety, natural disaster, war and terrorism, city divisions, architecture for safe cities

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Authors: Zan Azma Nasruddin, Irwan Mazlin, Nor Aziah Daud, Fauziah Redzuan, Fariza Hanis Abdul Razak

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This paper focuses on a machine learning that learn the correct pronunciation of Makhraj Huroofs. Usually, people need to find an expert to pronounce the Huroof accurately. In this study, the researchers have developed a system that is able to learn the selected Huroofs which are ha, tsa, zho, and dza using the Convolutional Neural Network. The researchers present the chosen type of the CNN architecture to make the system that is able to learn the data (Huroofs) as quick as possible and produces high accuracy during the prediction. The researchers have experimented the system to measure the accuracy and the cross entropy in the training process.

Keywords: convolutional neural network, Makhraj recognition, speech recognition, signal processing, tensorflow

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Authors: Alejandro Rodríguez-Molinero, Carlos Pérez-López, Jorge Hernández-Vara, Àngels Bayes-Rusiñol, Juan Carlos Martínez-Castrillo, David A. Pérez-Martínez

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Background: Monitoring motor symptoms in Parkinson's patients is often a complex and time-consuming task for clinicians, as Hauser's diaries are often poorly completed by patients. Recently, new automatic devices (Parkinson's holter: STAT-ON®) have been developed capable of monitoring patients' motor fluctuations. The MoMoPa-EC clinical trial (NCT04176302) investigates which of the two methods produces better clinical results. In this sub-analysis, the concordance between both methods is analyzed. Methods: In the MoMoPa-EC clinical trial, 164 patients with moderate-severe Parkinson's disease and at least two hours a day of Off will be included. At the time of patient recruitment, all of them completed a seven-day motor fluctuation diary at home (Hauser’s diary) while wearing the Parkinson's holter. In this sub-analysis, 71 patients with complete data for the purpose of this comparison were included. The intraclass correlation coefficient was calculated between the patient diary entries and the Parkinson's holter data in terms of time On, Off, and time with dyskinesias. Results: The intra-class correlation coefficient of both methods was 0.57 (95% CI: 0.3-0.74) for daily time in Off (%), 0.48 (95% CI: 0.14-0.68) for daily time in On (%), and 0.37 (95% CI %: -0.04-0.62) for daily time with dyskinesias (%). Conclusions: Both methods have a moderate agreement with each other. We will have to wait for the results of the MoMoPa-EC project to estimate which of them has the greatest clinical benefits. Acknowledgment: This work is supported by AbbVie S.L.U, the Instituto de Salud Carlos III [DTS17/00195], and the European Fund for Regional Development, 'A way to make Europe'.

Keywords: Parkinson, sensor, motor fluctuations, dyskinesia

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Authors: Ersin Sener, Ibrahim Demir, Hasan Aykut Karaboga, Kadir Kilinc

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Bayesian methods, which have very wide range of applications, are implemented to the data obtained from the production of F class fly ash-based geopolymer bricks’ experimental design. In this study, dependent variable is compressive strength, independent variables are treatment type (oven and steam), treatment time, molding time, temperature, water absorbtion ratio and density. The effect of independent variables on compressive strength is investigated. There is no difference among treatment types, but there is a correlation between independent variables. Therefore, hierarchical Bayesian path analysis is applied. In consequence of analysis we specified that treatment time, temperature and density effects on compressive strength is higher, molding time, and water absorbtion ratio is relatively low.

Keywords: experimental design, F class fly ash, geopolymer bricks, hierarchical Bayesian path analysis

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Authors: Autcha Araveeporn

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This paper presents a study about a nonparametric regression model consisting of a smoothing spline method and a penalized spline regression method. We also compare the techniques used for estimation and prediction of nonparametric regression model. We tried both methods with crude oil prices in dollars per barrel and the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) index. According to the results, it is concluded that smoothing spline method performs better than that of penalized spline regression method.

Keywords: nonparametric regression model, penalized spline regression method, smoothing spline method, Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET)

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Authors: Savaş Karpuz, Sami Küçükşen

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The aim of this study is to investigate the effectiveness of neurological rehabilitation in patients with traumatic brain injury. Participants were 45 consecutive adults with traumatic brain injury who were received the neurologic rehabilitation. Sociodemographic characteristics of the patients, the cause of the injury, the duration of the coma and posttraumatic amnesia, the length of stay in the other inpatient clinics before rehabilitation, the time between injury and admission to the rehabilitation clinic, and the length of stay in the rehabilitation clinic were recorded. The differences in functional status between admission and discharge were determined with Disability Rating Scale (DRS), Functional Independence Measure (FIM), and Functional Ambulation Scale (FAS) and levels of cognitive functioning determined with Ranchos Los Amigos Scale (RLAS). According to admission time, there was a significant improvement identified in functional status of patients who had been given the intensive in-hospital cognitive rehabilitation program. At discharge time, the statistically significant differences were obtained in DRS, FIM, FAS and RLAS scores according to admission time. Better improvement in functional status was detected in patients with lower scores in DRS, and higher scores FIM and RLAS scores at the entry time. The neurologic rehabilitation significantly affects the recovery of functional status after traumatic brain injury.

Keywords: traumatic brain injury, rehabilitation, functional status, neurological

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Authors: Aziz Sezgin, Yuksel Hacioglu, Nurkan Yagiz

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Sliding mode controller for a vehicle active suspension system is designed in this study. The widely used quarter car model is preferred and it is aimed to improve the ride comfort of the passengers. The effect of the actuator time delay, which may arise due to the information processing, sensors or actuator dynamics, is also taken into account during the design of the controller. A sliding mode controller was designed that has taken into account the actuator time delay by using Smith predictor. The successful performance of the designed controller is confirmed via numerical results.

Keywords: sliding mode control, active suspension system, actuator, time delay, vehicle

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Authors: Fatemeh Sadat Miri, Morteza Ehsani, Seyed Farshid Hosseini

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The present research is concerned with the optimization of extrusion parameters of ABS sheets by the Taguchi experimental design method. In this design method, three parameters of % recycling ABS, processing temperature and degassing time on mechanical properties, hardness, HDT, and color matching of ABS sheets were investigated. The variations of this research are the dosage of recycling ABS, processing temperature, and degassing time. According to experimental test data, the highest level of tensile strength and HDT belongs to the sample with 5% recycling ABS, processing temperature of 230°C, and degassing time of 3 hours. Additionally, the minimum level of MFI and color matching belongs to this sample, too. The present results are in good agreement with the Taguchi method. Based on the outcomes of the Taguchi design method, degassing time has the most effect on the mechanical properties of ABS sheets.

Keywords: ABS, process optimization, Taguchi, mechanical properties

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Authors: Hansraj Bookun, Angela Tan, Rachel Xuan, Linheng Zhao, Kejia Wang, Animesh Singla, David Kim, Christopher Loupos

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Introduction: Incisional wound complications in vascular surgery patients represent a significant clinical and econometric burden of morbidity and mortality. The objective of this study was to trial the feasibility of applying the Prevena negative pressure incision management system as a routine dressing in patients who had undergone arterial surgery. Conventionally, Prevena has been applied to groin incisions, but this study features applications on multiple wound sites such as the thigh or major amputation stumps. Method: This was a cross-sectional observational, single-centre case series of 12 patients who had undergone major vascular surgery. Their wounds were managed with the Prevena system being applied either intra-operatively or on the first post-operative day. Demographic and operative details were collated as well as the length of stay and complication rates. Results: There were 9 males (75%) with mean age of 66 years and the comorbid burden was as follows: ischaemic heart disease (92%), diabetes (42%), hypertension (100%), stage 4 or greater kidney impairment (17%) and current or ex-smoking (83%). The main indications were acute ischaemia (33%), claudication (25%), and gangrene (17%). There were single instances of an occluded popliteal artery aneurysm, diabetic foot infection, and rest pain. The majority of patients (50%) had hybrid operations with iliofemoral endarterectomies, patch arterioplasties, and further peripheral endovascular treatment. There were 4 complex arterial bypass operations and 2 major amputations. The mean length of stay was 17 ± 10 days, with a range of 4 to 35 days. A single complication, in the form of a lymphocoele, was encountered in the context of an iliofemoral endarterectomy and patch arterioplasty. This was managed conservatively. There were no deaths. Discussion: The Prevena wound management system shows that in conjunction with safe vascular surgery, absolute wound complication rates remain low and that it remains a valuable adjunct in the treatment of vasculopaths.

Keywords: wound care, negative pressure, vascular surgery, closed incision

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Authors: Zhdanova A. O., Volkov R. S., Kuznetsov G. V., Strizhak P. A.

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Fires in different types of facilities are a serious problem worldwide.It is still an unaccomplished science and technology objective to establish the minimum number and type of sensors in automatic systems of compartment fire suppression which would turn the fire-extinguishing agent spraying on and off in real time depending on the state of the fire, minimize the amount of agent applied, delay time in fire suppression and system response, as well as the time of combustion suppression. Based on the results of experimental studies, the conclusion was made that it is reasonable to use a gas analysis system and heat sensors (in the event of their prior activation) to determine the effectiveness of fire suppression (fire-extinguishing composition interacts with the fire). Thus, the concentration of CO in the interaction of the firefighting liquid with the fire increases to 0.7–1.2%, which indicates a slowdown in the flame combustion, and heat sensors stop responding at a gas medium temperature below 80 ºC, which shows a gradual decrease in the heat release from the fire. The evidence from this study suggests that the information received from the video recording equipment (video camera) should be used in real time as an additional parameter confirming fire suppression. Research was supported by Russian Science Foundation (project No 21-19-00009, https://rscf.ru/en/project/21-19-00009/).

Keywords: compartment fires, fire suppression, continuous control of fire behavior, feedback systems

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Authors: Chin-Chia Jane

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In a transportation network, travel time refers to the transmission time from source node to destination node, whereas reliability refers to the probability of a successful connection from source node to destination node. With an increasing emphasis on quality of service (QoS), both performance indexes are significant in the design and analysis of transportation systems. In this work, we extend the well-known flow network model for transportation networks so that travel time and reliability are integrated into the QoS measurement simultaneously. In the extended model, in addition to the general arc capacities, each intermediate node has a time weight which is the travel time for per unit of commodity going through the node. Meanwhile, arcs and nodes are treated as binary random variables that switch between operation and failure with associated probabilities. For pre-specified travel time limitation and demand requirement, the QoS of a transportation network is the probability that source can successfully transport the demand requirement to destination while the total transmission time is under the travel time limitation. This work is pioneering, since existing literatures that evaluate travel time reliability via a single optimization path, the proposed QoS focuses the performance of the whole network system. To compute the QoS of transportation networks, we first transfer the extended network model into an equivalent min-cost max-flow network model. In the transferred network, each arc has a new travel time weight which takes value 0. Each intermediate node is replaced by two nodes u and v, and an arc directed from u to v. The newly generated nodes u and v are perfect nodes. The new direct arc has three weights: travel time, capacity, and operation probability. Then the universal set of state vectors is recursively decomposed into disjoint subsets of reliable, unreliable, and stochastic vectors until no stochastic vector is left. The decomposition is made possible by applying existing efficient min-cost max-flow algorithm. Because the reliable subsets are disjoint, QoS can be obtained directly by summing the probabilities of these reliable subsets. Computational experiments are conducted on a benchmark network which has 11 nodes and 21 arcs. Five travel time limitations and five demand requirements are set to compute the QoS value. To make a comparison, we test the exhaustive complete enumeration method. Computational results reveal the proposed algorithm is much more efficient than the complete enumeration method. In this work, a transportation network is analyzed by an extended flow network model where each arc has a fixed capacity, each intermediate node has a time weight, and both arcs and nodes are independent binary random variables. The quality of service of the transportation network is an integration of customer demands, travel time, and the probability of connection. We present a decomposition algorithm to compute the QoS efficiently. Computational experiments conducted on a prototype network show that the proposed algorithm is superior to existing complete enumeration methods.

Keywords: quality of service, reliability, transportation network, travel time

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Authors: H. Hosseini, B. V. Berdyshev, I. Iskopintsev

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This paper presents a rheological model for producing shape-memory thermoplastic polymers. Shape-memory occurs as a result of internal rearrangement of the structural elements of a polymer. A non-linear viscoelastic model was developed that allows qualitative and quantitative prediction of the stress-strain behavior of shape-memory polymers during heating. This research was done to develop a technique to determine the maximum possible change in size of heat-shrinkable products during heating. The rheological model used in this work was particularly suitable for defining process parameters and constructive parameters of the processing equipment.

Keywords: elastic deformation, heating, shape-memory polymers, stress-strain behavior, viscoelastic model

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Authors: Elaiho Osaruwense, Ajuzie Godson Chidiebere

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Nigeria of at least 250 ethnic group a have suffered a lot of social, economic and political setback especially in the regime of oil and gas, that are exploited from the minority region of the Niger south -south areas. The rate of insecurity in the north gives a lot of questioning and concern, with the series of killings by the Boko Haram in some part of the north etc. the fact still remains on how the gap and the compromise will be reconciling especially with the incoming president of Muhammadu Buhari with all the problems which was not resolve by the past administration (President Ebele Jonathan), considering the configuration and the character of the Nigerian state. This paper tends to critically evaluate all this problems, assertion, proffering possible solution.

Keywords: ethnic minority, oil theft, insecurity, the gap and the compromise

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Authors: S. S. Awanti, Aravindakumar B. Harwalkar

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Concrete construction in future has to be environmental friendly apart from being safe so that society at large is benefited by the huge investments made in the infrastructure projects. To achieve this, component materials of the concrete system have to be optimized with reference to sustainability. This paper presents a study on development of mix proportions of high volume fly ash concrete (HFC). A series of HFC mixtures with cement replacement levels varying between 50% and 65% were prepared with water/binder ratios of 0.3 and 0.35. Compressive strength values were obtained at different ages. From the experimental results, pozzolanic efficiency ratios and mix design curves for HFC were established.

Keywords: age factor, compressive strength, high volume fly ash concrete, pozolanic efficiency ratio

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Authors: Hamed Yaghoubi, Esmaeil Salahi, Fateme Taati

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The effective shear and bulk viscosity, as well as dynamic viscosity, describe the rheological properties of the ceramic body during the liquid phase sintering process. The rheological parameters depend on the physical and thermomechanical characteristics of the material such as relative density, temperature, grain size, and diffusion coefficient and activation energy. The main goal of this research is to acquire a comprehensive understanding of the response of an incompressible viscose ceramic material during liquid phase sintering process such as stress-strain relations, sintering and hydrostatic stress, the prediction of anisotropic shrinkage and heterogeneous densification as a function of sintering time by including the simultaneous influence of gravity field, and frictional force. After raw materials analysis, the standard hard porcelain mixture as a ceramic body was designed and prepared. Three different experimental configurations were designed including midpoint deflection, sinter bending, and free sintering samples. The numerical method for the ceramic specimens during the liquid phase sintering process are implemented in the CREEP user subroutine code in ABAQUS. The numerical-experimental procedure shows the anisotropic behavior, the complete difference in spatial displacement through three directions, the incompressibility for ceramic samples during the sintering process. The anisotropic shrinkage factor has been proposed to investigate the shrinkage anisotropy. It has been shown that the shrinkage along the normal axis of casting sample is about 1.5 times larger than that of casting direction, the gravitational force in pyroplastic deformation intensifies the shrinkage anisotropy more than the free sintering sample. The lowest and greatest equivalent creep strain occurs at the intermediate zone and around the central line of the midpoint distorted sample, respectively. In the sinter bending test sample, the equivalent creep strain approaches to the maximum near the contact area with refractory support. The inhomogeneity in Von-Misses, pressure, and principal stress intensifies the relative density non-uniformity in all samples, except in free sintering one. The symmetrical distribution of stress around the center of free sintering sample, cause to hinder the pyroplastic deformations. Densification results confirmed that the effective bulk viscosity was well-defined with relative density values. The stress analysis confirmed that the sintering stress is more than the hydrostatic stress from start to end of sintering time so, from both theoretically and experimentally point of view, the sintering process occurs completely.

Keywords: anisotropic shrinkage, ceramic material, liquid phase sintering process, rheological properties, numerical-experimental procedure

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Authors: Dmytro Zubov, Francesco Volponi

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In this paper, D-Wave quantum computing Ising model is used for the forecasting of positive extremes of daily mean air temperature. Forecast models are designed with two to five qubits, which represent 2-, 3-, 4-, and 5-day historical data respectively. Ising model’s real-valued weights and dimensionless coefficients are calculated using daily mean air temperatures from 119 places around the world, as well as sea level (Aburatsu, Japan). In comparison with current methods, this approach is better suited to predict heat wave values because it does not require the estimation of a probability distribution from scarce observations. Proposed forecast quantum computing algorithm is simulated based on traditional computer architecture and combinatorial optimization of Ising model parameters for the Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport dataset with 1-day lead-time on learning sample (1975-2010 yr). Analysis of the forecast accuracy (ratio of successful predictions to total number of predictions) on the validation sample (2011-2014 yr) shows that Ising model with three qubits has 100 % accuracy, which is quite significant as compared to other methods. However, number of identified heat waves is small (only one out of nineteen in this case). Other models with 2, 4, and 5 qubits have 20 %, 3.8 %, and 3.8 % accuracy respectively. Presented three-qubit forecast model is applied for prediction of heat waves at other five locations: Aurel Vlaicu, Romania – accuracy is 28.6 %; Bratislava, Slovakia – accuracy is 21.7 %; Brussels, Belgium – accuracy is 33.3 %; Sofia, Bulgaria – accuracy is 50 %; Akhisar, Turkey – accuracy is 21.4 %. These predictions are not ideal, but not zeros. They can be used independently or together with other predictions generated by different method(s). The loss of human life, as well as environmental, economic, and material damage, from extreme air temperatures could be reduced if some of heat waves are predicted. Even a small success rate implies a large socio-economic benefit.

Keywords: heat wave, D-wave, forecast, Ising model, quantum computing

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Authors: Maria Ledinskaya

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This paper is part case study and part literature review. It seeks to introduce Agile, Lean, and Hybrid project management concepts from business, software development, and manufacturing fields to museum conservation by looking at their practical application on a recent conservation project at the Sainsbury Centre for Visual Arts. The author outlines the advantages of leaner and more agile conservation practices in today’s faster, less certain, and more budget-conscious museum climate where traditional project structures are no longer as relevant or effective. The Morris Collection Conservation Project was carried out in 2019-2021 in Norwich, UK, and concerned the remedial conservation of around 150 Abstract Constructivist artworks bequeathed to the Sainsbury Centre by private collectors Michael and Joyce Morris. It was a medium-sized conservation project of moderate complexity, planned and delivered in an environment with multiple known unknowns – unresearched collection, unknown conditions and materials, unconfirmed budget. The project was later impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, introducing indeterminate lockdowns, budget cuts, staff changes, and the need to accommodate social distancing and remote communications. The author, then a staff conservator at the Sainsbury Centre who acted as project manager on the Morris Project, presents an incremental, iterative, and value-based approach to managing a conservation project in an uncertain environment. The paper examines the project from the point of view of Traditional, Agile, Lean, and Hybrid project management. The author argues that most academic writing on project management in conservation has focussed on a Traditional plan-driven approach – also known as Waterfall project management – which has significant drawbacks in today’s museum environment due to its over-reliance on prediction-based planning and its low tolerance to change. In the last 20 years, alternative Agile, Lean and Hybrid approaches to project management have been widely adopted in software development, manufacturing, and other industries, although their recognition in the museum sector has been slow. Using examples from the Morris Project, the author introduces key principles and tools of Agile, Lean, and Hybrid project management and presents a series of arguments on the effectiveness of these alternative methodologies in museum conservation, including the ethical and practical challenges to their implementation. These project management approaches are discussed in the context of consequentialist, relativist, and utilitarian developments in contemporary conservation ethics. Although not intentionally planned as such, the Morris Project had a number of Agile and Lean features which were instrumental to its successful delivery. These key features are identified as distributed decision-making, a co-located cross-disciplinary team, servant leadership, focus on value-added work, flexible planning done in shorter sprint cycles, light documentation, and emphasis on reducing procedural, financial, and logistical waste. Overall, the author’s findings point in favour of a hybrid model, which combines traditional and alternative project processes and tools to suit the specific needs of the project.

Keywords: agile project management, conservation, hybrid project management, lean project management, waterfall project management

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Authors: H. Hotait, X. Chiementin, L. Rasolofondraibe

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This paper presents a continuous work to detect the abnormal state in the rolling bearing by studying the vibration signature analysis and calculation of the remaining useful life. To achieve these aims, two methods; the first method is the classification to detect the degradation state by the AOM-OPTICS (Acousto-Optic Modulator) method. The second one is the prediction of the degradation state using least-squares support vector regression and then compared with the linear degradation model. An experimental investigation on ball-bearing was conducted to see the effectiveness of the used method by applying the acquired vibration signals. The proposed model for predicting the state of bearing gives us accurate results with the experimental and numerical data.

Keywords: bearings, automatization, optimization, prognosis, classification, defect detection

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Authors: N. Ammouchi

Abstract:

We have studied the effect of milling time on the structural and hyperfine properties of Ni45Al45Fe10 compound elaborated by mechanical alloying. The elaboration was performed by using the planetary ball mill at different milling times. The as milled powders were characterized by X-ray diffraction (XRD) and Mӧssbauer spectroscopy. From XRD diffraction spectra, we show that the β NiAl(Fe) was completely formed after 24 h of milling time. When the milling time increases, the lattice parameter increases, whereas the grain size decreases to a few nanometres and the mean level of microstrains increases. The analysis of Mӧssbauer spectra indicates that, in addition to a ferromagnetic phase, α-Fe, a paramagnetic disordered phase Ni Al (Fe) solid solution is observed after 2h and only this phase is present after 12h.

Keywords: NiAlFe, nanostructured powders, X-ray diffraction, Mӧssbauer spectroscopy

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Authors: Taweechai Nuntawisuttiwong, Natasha Dejdumrong

Abstract:

Newton-Lagrange Interpolations are widely used in numerical analysis. However, it requires a quadratic computational time for their constructions. In computer aided geometric design (CAGD), there are some polynomial curves: Wang-Ball, DP and Dejdumrong curves, which have linear time complexity algorithms. Thus, the computational time for Newton-Lagrange Interpolations can be reduced by applying the algorithms of Wang-Ball, DP and Dejdumrong curves. In order to use Wang-Ball, DP and Dejdumrong algorithms, first, it is necessary to convert Newton-Lagrange polynomials into Wang-Ball, DP or Dejdumrong polynomials. In this work, the algorithms for converting from both uniform and non-uniform Newton-Lagrange polynomials into Wang-Ball, DP and Dejdumrong polynomials are investigated. Thus, the computational time for representing Newton-Lagrange polynomials can be reduced into linear complexity. In addition, the other utilizations of using CAGD curves to modify the Newton-Lagrange curves can be taken.

Keywords: Lagrange interpolation, linear complexity, monomial matrix, Newton interpolation

Procedia PDF Downloads 239

Authors: Aicha Bensouici, Assia Mili, Naouel Rdjem, Nacera Baali

Abstract:

Copper oxide decorated reduced graphene oxide (GO) was obtained successfully using two steps route synthesis was used. Firstly, graphene oxide was obtained using a modified Hummers method by excluding sodium nitrate from starting materials. After washing-centrifugation routine pristine GO was decorated by copper oxide using a refluxation technique at 120°C during 2h, and an equal amount of GO and copper acetate was used. Three CuO-rGO nanocomposite samples types were obtained at 30min, 24h, and 7 day stirring time. TAC results show dose dependent behavior of CuO-rGO and confirm no influence of stirring time on antioxidant properties, 30min is considered as an optimal stirring condition.

Keywords: copper oxide, reduced graphene oxide, TAC, GO

Procedia PDF Downloads 111

Authors: Hoshang Kolivand, Mahyar Kolivand, Mohd Shahrizal Sunar, Mohd Azhar M. Arsad

Abstract:

Real-time shadow generation in virtual environments and Augmented Reality (AR) was always a hot topic in the last three decades. Lots of calculation for shadow generation among AR needs a fast algorithm to overcome this issue and to be capable of implementing in any real-time rendering. In this paper, a silhouette detection algorithm is presented to generate shadows for AR systems. Δ+ algorithm is presented based on extending edges of occluders to recognize which edges are silhouettes in the case of real-time rendering. An accurate comparison between the proposed algorithm and current algorithms in silhouette detection is done to show the reduction calculation by presented algorithm. The algorithm is tested in both virtual environments and AR systems. We think that this algorithm has the potential to be a fundamental algorithm for shadow generation in all complex environments.

Keywords: silhouette detection, shadow volumes, real-time shadows, rendering, augmented reality

Procedia PDF Downloads 447

Authors: nafees mahbub, blake tindol, utkarsh shrivastava, kuanchin chen

Abstract:

Online shopping has become an integral part of businesses today. Big players such as Amazon are setting the bar for delivery services, and many businesses are working towards meeting them. However, what happens if a seller underestimates or overestimates the delivery time? Does it translate to consumer comments, ratings, or lost sales? Although several prior studies have investigated the impact of poor logistics on customer satisfaction, that impact of under estimation of delivery times has been rarely considered. The study uses real-time customer online purchase data to study the impact of missed delivery times on satisfaction.

Keywords: LOST SALES, DELIVERY TIME, CUSTOMER SATISFACTION, CUSTOMER REVIEWS

Procedia PDF Downloads 220

Authors: W. M. Ng, O. B. Iskender, L. Simonini, J. M. Gonzalez

Abstract:

A multitude of factors, including mechanical imperfections of the deployment system and separation instance of satellites from launchers, oftentimes results in highly uncontrolled initial tumbling motion immediately after deployment. In particular, small satellites which are characteristically launched as a piggyback to a large rocket, are generally allocated a large time window to complete detumbling within the early orbit phase. Because of the saturation risk of the actuators, current algorithms are conservative to avoid draining excessive power in the detumbling phase. This work aims to enable time-optimal switching of control modes during the early phase, reducing the time required to transit from launch to sun-pointing mode for power budget conscious satellites. This assumes the usage of B-dot controller for detumbling and PD controller for pointing. Nonlinear Euler's rotation equations are used to represent the attitude dynamics of satellites and Commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) reaction wheels and magnetorquers are used to perform the manoeuver. Simulation results will be based on a spacecraft attitude simulator and the use case will be for multiple orbits of launch deployment general to Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites.

Keywords: attitude control, detumbling, small satellites, spacecraft autonomy, time optimal control

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Authors: Fatemeh Yousefi, Narges Fallah, Mohsen Kian, Mehrzad Pakzadeh

Abstract:

The petrochemical complex releases wastewater, which is rich in organic pollutants and could not be treated easily. Treatment of the wastewater from a petrochemical industry has been investigated using a submerged membrane bioreactor (MBR). For this purpose, a pilot-scale submerged MBR with a flat-sheet ultrafiltration membrane was used for treatment of petrochemical wastewater according to Bandar Imam Petrochemical complex (BIPC) Aromatic plant. The testing system ran continuously (24-h) over 6 months. Trials on different membrane fluxes and hydraulic retention time (HRT) were conducted and the performance evaluation of the system was done. During the 167 days operation of the MBR at hydraulic retention time (HRT) of 18, 12, 6, and 3 and at an infinite sludge retention time (SRT), the MBR effluent quality consistently met the requirement for discharge to the environment. A fluxes of 6.51 and 13.02 L m-2 h-1 (LMH) was sustainable and HRT of 6 and 12 h corresponding to these fluxes were applicable. Membrane permeability could be fully recovered after cleaning. In addition, there was no foaming issue in the process. It was concluded that it was feasible to treat the wastewater using submersed MBR technology.

Keywords: membrane bioreactor (MBR), petrochemical wastewater, COD removal, biological treatment

Procedia PDF Downloads 526