Search results for: error estimate
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 3603

Search results for: error estimate

1173 Comparative Performance Analysis for Selected Behavioral Learning Systems versus Ant Colony System Performance: Neural Network Approach

Authors: Hassan M. H. Mustafa

Abstract:

This piece of research addresses an interesting comparative analytical study. Which considers two concepts of diverse algorithmic computational intelligence approaches related tightly with Neural and Non-Neural Systems. The first algorithmic intelligent approach concerned with observed obtained practical results after three neural animal systems’ activities. Namely, they are Pavlov’s, and Thorndike’s experimental work. Besides a mouse’s trial during its movement inside figure of eight (8) maze, to reach an optimal solution for reconstruction problem. Conversely, second algorithmic intelligent approach originated from observed activities’ results for Non-Neural Ant Colony System (ACS). These results obtained after reaching an optimal solution while solving Traveling Sales-man Problem (TSP). Interestingly, the effect of increasing number of agents (either neurons or ants) on learning performance shown to be similar for both introduced systems. Finally, performance of both intelligent learning paradigms shown to be in agreement with learning convergence process searching for least mean square error LMS algorithm. While its application for training some Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models. Accordingly, adopted ANN modeling is a relevant and realistic tool to investigate observations and analyze performance for both selected computational intelligence (biological behavioral learning) systems.

Keywords: artificial neural network modeling, animal learning, ant colony system, traveling salesman problem, computational biology

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1172 Radiation Protection Assessment of the Emission of a d-t Neutron Generator: Simulations with MCNP Code and Experimental Measurements in Different Operating Conditions

Authors: G. M. Contessa, L. Lepore, G. Gandolfo, C. Poggi, N. Cherubini, R. Remetti, S. Sandri

Abstract:

Practical guidelines are provided in this work for the safe use of a portable d-t Thermo Scientific MP-320 neutron generator producing pulsed 14.1 MeV neutron beams. The neutron generator’s emission was tested experimentally and reproduced by MCNPX Monte Carlo code. Simulations were particularly accurate, even generator’s internal components were reproduced on the basis of ad-hoc collected X-ray radiographic images. Measurement campaigns were conducted under different standard experimental conditions using an LB 6411 neutron detector properly calibrated at three different energies, and comparing simulated and experimental data. In order to estimate the dose to the operator vs. the operating conditions and the energy spectrum, the most appropriate value of the conversion factor between neutron fluence and ambient dose equivalent has been identified, taking into account both direct and scattered components. The results of the simulations show that, in real situations, when there is no information about the neutron spectrum at the point where the dose has to be evaluated, it is possible - and in any case conservative - to convert the measured value of the count rate by means of the conversion factor corresponding to 14 MeV energy. This outcome has a general value when using this type of generator, enabling a more accurate design of experimental activities in different setups. The increasingly widespread use of this type of device for industrial and medical applications makes the results of this work of interest in different situations, especially as a support for the definition of appropriate radiation protection procedures and, in general, for risk analysis.

Keywords: instrumentation and monitoring, management of radiological safety, measurement of individual dose, radiation protection of workers

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1171 Possible Management of Acute Liver Failure Caused Experimentally by Thioacetamide Through a Wide Range of Nano Natural Anti-Inflammatory And Antioxidants Compounds [Herbal Approach]

Authors: Sohair Hassan, Olfat Hammam, Sahar Hussein, Wessam Magdi

Abstract:

Objective: Acute liver failure (ALF) is a clinical condition with an unclear history of pathophysiology, making it a challenging task for scientists to reverse the disease in its initial phase and to help the liver re-function customary: this study aimed to estimate the hepatoprotective effects of Punica granatum Lpeel and Pistacia atlantica leaves as a multi-rich antioxidants ingredients either in their normal and/or in their nanoforms against thioacetamide induced acute liver failure in a rodent model. Method: Male Wistar rats (n=60) were divided into six equal groups, the first group employed as a control; The second group administered a dose of 350 mg /Kg/ b.w of thioacetamide (TAA)-IP, from the third to the sixth group received TAA + [2mls / 100 g b.w/d] of aqueous extracts of Punica granatum L and Pistacia atlantica either in their normal and/or Nano forms consecutively for (14 days) Results: Recorded significant elevation in liver enzymes, lipid profiles, LPO (p= 0.05) and NO with a marked significant decrease in GSH and SOD accompanied by an elevation in inflammatory cytokine (IL6, TNF-α, and AFP) in addition to a noticeable increase in HSP70 level & degradation in DNA respectively in TAA challenged group. However significant and subsequent amelioration of most of the impaired markers was observed with ip nano treatment of both extracts. Conclusion: The current results highlighted the high performance of both plant nano extracts and their hepatoprotective impact and their possible therapeutic role in the amelioration of TAA induced acute liver failure in experimental animals.

Keywords: acute liver failure HPLC, IL6, nano extracts, thioacetamide, TNF-α

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1170 Numerical Modeling of Determination of in situ Rock Mass Deformation Modulus Using the Plate Load Test

Authors: A. Khodabakhshi, A. Mortazavi

Abstract:

Accurate determination of rock mass deformation modulus, as an important design parameter, is one of the most controversial issues in most engineering projects. A 3D numerical model of standard plate load test (PLT) using the FLAC3D code was carried to investigate the mechanism governing the test process. Five objectives were the focus of this study. The first goal was to employ 3D modeling in the interpretation of PLT conducted at the Bazoft dam site, Iran. The second objective was to investigate the effect of displacements measuring depth from the loading plates on the calculated moduli. The magnitude of rock mass deformation modulus calculated from PLT depends on anchor depth, and in practice, this may be a cause of error in the selection of realistic deformation modulus for the rock mass. The third goal of the study was to investigate the effect of testing plate diameter on the calculated modulus. Moreover, a comparison of the calculated modulus from ISRM formula, numerical modeling and calculated modulus from the actual PLT carried out at right abutment of the Bazoft dam site was another objective of the study. Finally, the effect of plastic strains on the calculated moduli in each of the loading-unloading cycles for three loading plates was investigated. The geometry, material properties, and boundary conditions on the constructed 3D model were selected based on the in-situ conditions of PLT at Bazoft dam site. A good agreement was achieved between numerical model results and the field tests results.

Keywords: deformation modulus, numerical model, plate loading test, rock mass

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1169 Design and Implementation Wireless System by Using Microcontrollers.Application for Drive Acquisition System with Multiple Sensors

Authors: H. Fekhar

Abstract:

Design and implementation acquisition system using radio frequency (RF) ASK module and micro controllers PIC is proposed in this work. The paper includes hardware and software design. The design tools are divided into two units , namely the sender MCU and receiver.The system was designed to measure temperatures of two furnaces and pressure pneumatic process. The wireless transmitter unit use the 433.95 MHz band directly interfaced to micro controller PIC18F4620. The sender unit consists of temperatures-pressure sensors , conditioning circuits , keypad GLCD display and RF module.Signal conditioner converts the output of the sensors into an electric quantity suitable for operation of the display and recording system.The measurements circuits are connected directly to 10 bits multiplexed A/D converter.The graphic liquid crystal display (GLCD) is used . The receiver (RF) module connected to a second microcontroller ,receive the signal via RF receiver , decode the Address/data and reproduces the original data . The strategy adopted for establishing communication between the sender MCU and receiver uses the specific protocol “Header, Address and data”.The communication protocol dealing with transmission and reception have been successfully implemented . Some experimental results are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed wireless system. This embedded system track temperatures – pressure signal reasonably well with a small error.

Keywords: microcontrollers, sensors, graphic liquid cristal display, protocol, temperature, pressure

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1168 Optimized Design, Material Selection, and Improvement of Liners, Mother Plate, and Stone Box of a Direct Charge Transfer Chute in a Sinter Plant: A Computational Approach

Authors: Anamitra Ghosh, Neeladri Paul

Abstract:

The present work aims at investigating material combinations and thereby improvising an optimized design of liner-mother plate arrangement and that of the stone box, such that it has low cost, high weldability, sufficiently capable of withstanding the increased amount of corrosive shear and bending loads, and having reduced thermal expansion coefficient at temperatures close to 1000 degrees Celsius. All the above factors have been preliminarily examined using a computational approach via ANSYS Thermo-Structural Computation, a commercial software that uses the Finite Element Method to analyze the response of simulated design specimens of liner-mother plate arrangement and the stone box, to varied bending, shear, and thermal loads as well as to determine the temperature gradients developed across various surfaces of the designs. Finally, the optimized structural designs of the liner-mother plate arrangement and that of the stone box with improved material and better structural and thermal properties are selected via trial-and-error method. The final improvised design is therefore considered to enhance the overall life and reliability of a Direct Charge Transfer Chute that transfers and segregates the hot sinter onto the cooler in a sinter plant.

Keywords: shear, bending, thermal, sinter, simulated, optimized, charge, transfer, chute, expansion, computational, corrosive, stone box, liner, mother plate, arrangement, material

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1167 Accuracy of Small Field of View CBCT in Determining Endodontic Working Length

Authors: N. L. S. Ahmad, Y. L. Thong, P. Nambiar

Abstract:

An in vitro study was carried out to evaluate the feasibility of small field of view (FOV) cone beam computed tomography (CBCT) in determining endodontic working length. The objectives were to determine the accuracy of CBCT in measuring the estimated preoperative working lengths (EPWL), endodontic working lengths (EWL) and file lengths. Access cavities were prepared in 27 molars. For each root canal, the baseline electronic working length was determined using an EAL (Raypex 5). The teeth were then divided into overextended, non-modified and underextended groups and the lengths were adjusted accordingly. Imaging and measurements were made using the respective software of the RVG (Kodak RVG 6100) and CBCT units (Kodak 9000 3D). Root apices were then shaved and the apical constrictions viewed under magnification to measure the control working lengths. The paired t-test showed a statistically significant difference between CBCT EPWL and control length but the difference was too small to be clinically significant. From the Bland Altman analysis, the CBCT method had the widest range of 95% limits of agreement, reflecting its greater potential of error. In measuring file lengths, RVG had a bigger window of 95% limits of agreement compared to CBCT. Conclusions: (1) The clinically insignificant underestimation of the preoperative working length using small FOV CBCT showed that it is acceptable for use in the estimation of preoperative working length. (2) Small FOV CBCT may be used in working length determination but it is not as accurate as the currently practiced method of using the EAL. (3) It is also more accurate than RVG in measuring file lengths.

Keywords: accuracy, CBCT, endodontics, measurement

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1166 In and Out-Of-Sample Performance of Non Simmetric Models in International Price Differential Forecasting in a Commodity Country Framework

Authors: Nicola Rubino

Abstract:

This paper presents an analysis of a group of commodity exporting countries' nominal exchange rate movements in relationship to the US dollar. Using a series of Unrestricted Self-exciting Threshold Autoregressive models (SETAR), we model and evaluate sixteen national CPI price differentials relative to the US dollar CPI. Out-of-sample forecast accuracy is evaluated through calculation of mean absolute error measures on the basis of two-hundred and fifty-three months rolling window forecasts and extended to three additional models, namely a logistic smooth transition regression (LSTAR), an additive non linear autoregressive model (AAR) and a simple linear Neural Network model (NNET). Our preliminary results confirm presence of some form of TAR non linearity in the majority of the countries analyzed, with a relatively higher goodness of fit, with respect to the linear AR(1) benchmark, in five countries out of sixteen considered. Although no model appears to statistically prevail over the other, our final out-of-sample forecast exercise shows that SETAR models tend to have quite poor relative forecasting performance, especially when compared to alternative non-linear specifications. Finally, by analyzing the implied half-lives of the > coefficients, our results confirms the presence, in the spirit of arbitrage band adjustment, of band convergence with an inner unit root behaviour in five of the sixteen countries analyzed.

Keywords: transition regression model, real exchange rate, nonlinearities, price differentials, PPP, commodity points

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1165 Optimization by Means of Genetic Algorithm of the Equivalent Electrical Circuit Model of Different Order for Li-ion Battery Pack

Authors: V. Pizarro-Carmona, S. Castano-Solis, M. Cortés-Carmona, J. Fraile-Ardanuy, D. Jimenez-Bermejo

Abstract:

The purpose of this article is to optimize the Equivalent Electric Circuit Model (EECM) of different orders to obtain greater precision in the modeling of Li-ion battery packs. Optimization includes considering circuits based on 1RC, 2RC and 3RC networks, with a dependent voltage source and a series resistor. The parameters are obtained experimentally using tests in the time domain and in the frequency domain. Due to the high non-linearity of the behavior of the battery pack, Genetic Algorithm (GA) was used to solve and optimize the parameters of each EECM considered (1RC, 2RC and 3RC). The objective of the estimation is to minimize the mean square error between the measured impedance in the real battery pack and those generated by the simulation of different proposed circuit models. The results have been verified by comparing the Nyquist graphs of the estimation of the complex impedance of the pack. As a result of the optimization, the 2RC and 3RC circuit alternatives are considered as viable to represent the battery behavior. These battery pack models are experimentally validated using a hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) simulation platform that reproduces the well-known New York City cycle (NYCC) and Federal Test Procedure (FTP) driving cycles for electric vehicles. The results show that using GA optimization allows obtaining EECs with 2RC or 3RC networks, with high precision to represent the dynamic behavior of a battery pack in vehicular applications.

Keywords: Li-ion battery packs modeling optimized, EECM, GA, electric vehicle applications

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1164 An Intelligent Scheme Switching for MIMO Systems Using Fuzzy Logic Technique

Authors: Robert O. Abolade, Olumide O. Ajayi, Zacheaus K. Adeyemo, Solomon A. Adeniran

Abstract:

Link adaptation is an important strategy for achieving robust wireless multimedia communications based on quality of service (QoS) demand. Scheme switching in multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) systems is an aspect of link adaptation, and it involves selecting among different MIMO transmission schemes or modes so as to adapt to the varying radio channel conditions for the purpose of achieving QoS delivery. However, finding the most appropriate switching method in MIMO links is still a challenge as existing methods are either computationally complex or not always accurate. This paper presents an intelligent switching method for the MIMO system consisting of two schemes - transmit diversity (TD) and spatial multiplexing (SM) - using fuzzy logic technique. In this method, two channel quality indicators (CQI) namely average received signal-to-noise ratio (RSNR) and received signal strength indicator (RSSI) are measured and are passed as inputs to the fuzzy logic system which then gives a decision – an inference. The switching decision of the fuzzy logic system is fed back to the transmitter to switch between the TD and SM schemes. Simulation results show that the proposed fuzzy logic – based switching technique outperforms conventional static switching technique in terms of bit error rate and spectral efficiency.

Keywords: channel quality indicator, fuzzy logic, link adaptation, MIMO, spatial multiplexing, transmit diversity

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1163 Layout Optimization of a Start-up COVID-19 Testing Kit Manufacturing Facility

Authors: Poojan Vora, Hardik Pancholi, Sanket Tajane, Harsh Shah, Elias Keedy

Abstract:

The global COVID-19 pandemic has affected the industry drastically in many ways. Even though the vaccine is being distributed quickly and despite the decreasing number of positive cases, testing is projected to remain a key aspect of the ‘new normal’. Improving existing plant layout and improving safety within the facility are of great importance in today’s industries because of the need to ensure productivity optimization and reduce safety risks. In practice, it is essential for any manufacturing plant to reduce nonvalue adding steps such as the movement of materials and rearrange similar processes. In the current pandemic situation, optimized layouts will not only increase safety measures but also decrease the fixed cost per unit manufactured. In our case study, we carefully studied the existing layout and the manufacturing steps of a new Texas start-up company that manufactures COVID testing kits. The effects of production rate are incorporated with the computerized relative allocation of facilities technique (CRAFT) algorithm to improve the plant layout and estimate the optimization parameters. Our work reduces the company’s material handling time and increases their daily production. Real data from the company are used in the case study to highlight the importance of colleges in fostering small business needs and improving the collaboration between college researchers and industries by using existing models to advance best practices.

Keywords: computerized relative allocation of facilities technique, facilities planning, optimization, start-up business

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1162 Statistical Analysis and Impact Forecasting of Connected and Autonomous Vehicles on the Environment: Case Study in the State of Maryland

Authors: Alireza Ansariyar, Safieh Laaly

Abstract:

Over the last decades, the vehicle industry has shown increased interest in integrating autonomous, connected, and electrical technologies in vehicle design with the primary hope of improving mobility and road safety while reducing transportation’s environmental impact. Using the State of Maryland (M.D.) in the United States as a pilot study, this research investigates CAVs’ fuel consumption and air pollutants (C.O., PM, and NOx) and utilizes meaningful linear regression models to predict CAV’s environmental effects. Maryland transportation network was simulated in VISUM software, and data on a set of variables were collected through a comprehensive survey. The number of pollutants and fuel consumption were obtained for the time interval 2010 to 2021 from the macro simulation. Eventually, four linear regression models were proposed to predict the amount of C.O., NOx, PM pollutants, and fuel consumption in the future. The results highlighted that CAVs’ pollutants and fuel consumption have a significant correlation with the income, age, and race of the CAV customers. Furthermore, the reliability of four statistical models was compared with the reliability of macro simulation model outputs in the year 2030. The error of three pollutants and fuel consumption was obtained at less than 9% by statistical models in SPSS. This study is expected to assist researchers and policymakers with planning decisions to reduce CAV environmental impacts in M.D.

Keywords: connected and autonomous vehicles, statistical model, environmental effects, pollutants and fuel consumption, VISUM, linear regression models

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1161 Design of Demand Pacemaker Using an Embedded Controller

Authors: C. Bala Prashanth Reddy, B. Abhinay, C. Sreekar, D. V. Shobhana Priscilla

Abstract:

The project aims in designing an emergency pacemaker which is capable of giving shocks to a human heart which has stopped working suddenly. A pacemaker is a machine commonly used by cardiologists. This machine is used in order to shock a human’s heart back into usage. The way the heart works is that there are small cells called pacemakers sending electrical pulses to cardiac muscles that tell the heart when to pump blood. When these electrical pulses stop, the heart stops beating. When this happens, a pacemaker is used to shock the heart muscles and the pacemakers back into action. The way this is achieved is by rubbing the two panels of the pacemaker together to create an adequate electrical current, and then the heart gets back to the normal state. The project aims in designing a system which is capable of continuously displaying the heart beat and blood pressure of a person on LCD. The concerned doctor gets the heart beat and also the blood pressure details continuously through the GSM Modem in the form of SMS alerts. In case of abnormal condition, the doctor sends message format regarding the amount of electric shock needed. Automatically the microcontroller gives the input to the pacemaker which in turn gives the shock to the patient. Heart beat monitor and display system is a portable and a best replacement for the old model stethoscope which is less efficient. The heart beat rate is calculated manually using stethoscope where the probability of error is high because the heart beat rate lies in the range of 70 to 90 per minute whose occurrence is less than 1 sec, so this device can be considered as a very good alternative instead of a stethoscope.

Keywords: missing R wave, PWM, demand pacemaker, heart

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1160 Estimation of Carbon Uptake of Seoul City Street Trees in Seoul and Plans for Increase Carbon Uptake by Improving Species

Authors: Min Woo Park, Jin Do Chung, Kyu Yeol Kim, Byoung Uk Im, Jang Woo Kim, Hae Yeul Ryu

Abstract:

Nine representative species of trees among all the street trees were selected to estimate the absorption amount of carbon dioxide emitted from street trees in Seoul calculating the biomass, amount of carbon saved, and annual absorption amount of carbon dioxide in each of the species. Planting distance of street trees in Seoul was 1,851,180 m, the number of planting lines was 1,287, the number of planted trees was 284,498 and 46 species of trees were planted as of 2013. According to the result of plugging the quantity of species of street trees in Seoul on the absorption amount of each of the species, 120,097 ton of biomass, 60,049.8 ton of amount of carbon saved, and 11,294 t CO2/year of annual absorption amount of carbon dioxide were calculated. Street ratio mentioned on the road statistics in Seoul in 2022 is 23.13%. If the street trees are assumed to be increased in the same rate, the number of street trees in Seoul was calculated to be 294,823. The planting distance was estimated to be 1,918,360 m, and the annual absorption amount of carbon dioxide was measured to be 11,704 t CO2/year. Plans for improving the annual absorption amount of carbon dioxide from street trees were established based on the expected amount of absorption. First of all, it is to improve the annual absorption amount of carbon dioxide by increasing the number of planted street trees after adjusting the planting distance of street trees. If adjusting the current planting distance to 6 m, it was turned out that 12,692.7 t CO2/year was absorbed on an annual basis. Secondly, it is to change the species of trees to tulip trees that represent high absorption rate. If increasing the proportion of tulip trees to 30% up to 2022, the annual absorption rate of carbon dioxide was calculated to be 17804.4 t CO2/year.

Keywords: absorption of carbon dioxide, source of absorbing carbon dioxide, trees in city, improving species

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1159 Hydrological Response of the Glacierised Catchment: Himalayan Perspective

Authors: Sonu Khanal, Mandira Shrestha

Abstract:

Snow and Glaciers are the largest dependable reserved sources of water for the river system originating from the Himalayas so an accurate estimate of the volume of water contained in the snowpack and the rate of release of water from snow and glaciers are, therefore, needed for efficient management of the water resources. This research assess the fusion of energy exchanges between the snowpack, air above and soil below according to mass and energy balance which makes it apposite than the models using simple temperature index for the snow and glacier melt computation. UEBGrid a Distributed energy based model is used to calculate the melt which is then routed by Geo-SFM. The model robustness is maintained by incorporating the albedo generated from the Landsat-7 ETM images on a seasonal basis for the year 2002-2003 and substrate map derived from TM. The Substrate file includes predominantly the 4 major thematic layers viz Snow, clean ice, Glaciers and Barren land. This approach makes use of CPC RFE-2 and MERRA gridded data sets as the source of precipitation and climatic variables. The subsequent model run for the year between 2002-2008 shows a total annual melt of 17.15 meter is generate from the Marshyangdi Basin of which 71% is contributed by the glaciers , 18% by the rain and rest being from the snow melt. The albedo file is decisive in governing the melt dynamics as 30% increase in the generated surface albedo results in the 10% decrease in the simulated discharge. The melt routed with the land cover and soil variables using Geo-SFM shows Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency of 0.60 with observed discharge for the study period.

Keywords: Glacier, Glacier melt, Snowmelt, Energy balance

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1158 A Hybrid Simulation Approach to Evaluate Cooling Energy Consumption for Public Housings of Subtropics

Authors: Kwok W. Mui, Ling T. Wong, Chi T. Cheung

Abstract:

Cooling energy consumption in the residential sector, different from shopping mall, office or commercial buildings, is significantly subject to occupant decisions where in-depth investigations are found limited. It shows that energy consumptions could be associated with housing types. Surveys have been conducted in existing Hong Kong public housings to understand the housing characteristics, apartment electricity demands, occupant’s thermal expectations, and air–conditioning usage patterns for further cooling energy-saving assessments. The aim of this study is to develop a hybrid cooling energy prediction model, which integrated by EnergyPlus (EP) and artificial neural network (ANN) to estimate cooling energy consumption in public residential sector. Sensitivity tests are conducted to find out the energy impacts with changing building parameters regarding to external wall and window material selection, window size reduction, shading extension, building orientation and apartment size control respectively. Assessments are performed to investigate the relationships between cooling demands and occupant behavior on thermal environment criteria and air-conditioning operation patterns. The results are summarized into a cooling energy calculator for layman use to enhance the cooling energy saving awareness in their own living environment. The findings can be used as a directory framework for future cooling energy evaluation in residential buildings, especially focus on the occupant behavioral air–conditioning operation and criteria of energy-saving incentives.

Keywords: artificial neural network, cooling energy, occupant behavior, residential buildings, thermal environment

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1157 Enhancing Temporal Extrapolation of Wind Speed Using a Hybrid Technique: A Case Study in West Coast of Denmark

Authors: B. Elshafei, X. Mao

Abstract:

The demand for renewable energy is significantly increasing, major investments are being supplied to the wind power generation industry as a leading source of clean energy. The wind energy sector is entirely dependable and driven by the prediction of wind speed, which by the nature of wind is very stochastic and widely random. This s0tudy employs deep multi-fidelity Gaussian process regression, used to predict wind speeds for medium term time horizons. Data of the RUNE experiment in the west coast of Denmark were provided by the Technical University of Denmark, which represent the wind speed across the study area from the period between December 2015 and March 2016. The study aims to investigate the effect of pre-processing the data by denoising the signal using empirical wavelet transform (EWT) and engaging the vector components of wind speed to increase the number of input data layers for data fusion using deep multi-fidelity Gaussian process regression (GPR). The outcomes were compared using root mean square error (RMSE) and the results demonstrated a significant increase in the accuracy of predictions which demonstrated that using vector components of the wind speed as additional predictors exhibits more accurate predictions than strategies that ignore them, reflecting the importance of the inclusion of all sub data and pre-processing signals for wind speed forecasting models.

Keywords: data fusion, Gaussian process regression, signal denoise, temporal extrapolation

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1156 Trends in Domestic Terms of Trade of Agricultural Sector of Pakistan

Authors: Anwar Hussain, Muhammad Iqbal

Abstract:

The changes in the prices of the agriculture commodities combined with changes in population and agriculture productivity affect farmers’ profitability and standard of living. This study intends to estimate various domestic terms of trade for agriculture sector and also to assess the volatility in the standard of living and profitability of farmers. The terms of trade has been estimated for Pakistan and its provinces using producer prices indices, consumer price indices, input prices indices and quantity indices using the data for the period 1990-91 to 2008-09. The domestic terms of trade of agriculture sector has been improved in terms of both approaches i.e. the ratio of producer prices indices to consumer prices indices and the real per capita income approach. However, the cross province estimates indicated that the terms of trade also improved for Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Sindh and Punjab while Balochistan’s domestic terms of trade deteriorated drastically. In other words the standard of living of the farmers in Pakistan and its provinces except Balochistan improved. Using the input prices, the domestic terms of trade deteriorated for Pakistan as a whole and its provinces as well. This also explores that as a whole the profitability of the farmers reduced during the study period. The farmers pay more prices for inputs as compared to they receive for their produce. This further indicates that the poverty at the gross root level has been increased. Further, summing, the standard of living of the farmers improved but their profitability reduced, which indicates that the farmers do not completely rely on the farm income but also utilize some other sources of income for their livelihood. The study supports to give subsidies on farm inputs so as to improve the profitability of the farmers.

Keywords: agricultural terms of trade, farmers’ profitability, farmers’ standard of living, consumer and producer price indices, quantity indices

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1155 The Study on Corpse Floating Time in Shanghai Region of China

Authors: Hang Meng, Wen-Bin Liu, Bi Xiao, Kai-Jun Ma, Jian-Hui Xie, Geng Fei, Tian-Ye Zhang, Lu-Yi Xu, Dong-Chuan Zhang

Abstract:

The victims in water are often found in the coastal region, along river region or the region with lakes. In China, the examination for the bodies of victims in the water is conducted by forensic doctors working in the public security bureau. Because the enter water time for most of the victims are not clear, and often lack of monitor images and other information, so to find out the corpse enter water time for victims is very difficult. After the corpse of the victim enters the water, it sinks first, then corruption gas produces, which can make the density of the corpse to be less than water, and thus rise again. So the factor that determines the corpse floating time is temperature. On the basis of the temperature data obtained in Shanghai region of China (Shanghai is a north subtropical marine monsoon climate, with an average annual temperature of about 17.1℃. The hottest month is July, the average monthly temperature is 28.6℃, and the coldest month is January, the average monthly temperature is 4.8℃). This study selected about 100 cases with definite corpse enter water time and corpse floating time, analyzed the cases and obtained the empirical law of the corpse floating time. For example, in the Shanghai region, on June 15th and October 15th, the corpse floating time is about 1.5 days. In early December, the bodies who entered the water will go up around January 1st of the following year, and the bodies who enter water in late December will float in March of next year. The results of this study can be used to roughly estimate the water enter time of the victims in Shanghai. Forensic doctors around the world can also draw on the results of this study to infer the time when the corpses of the victims in the water go up.

Keywords: corpse enter water time, corpse floating time, drowning, forensic pathology, victims in the water

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1154 Groundwater Potential Zone Identification in Unconsolidated Aquifer Using Geophysical Techniques around Tarbela Ghazi, District Haripur, Pakistan

Authors: Syed Muzyan Shahzad, Liu Jianxin, Asim Shahzad, Muhammad Sharjeel Raza, Sun Ya, Fanidi Meryem

Abstract:

Electrical resistivity investigation was conducted in vicinity of Tarbela Ghazi, in order to study the subsurface layer with a view of determining the depth to the aquifer and thickness of groundwater potential zones. Vertical Electrical Sounding (VES) using Schlumberger array was carried out at 16 VES stations. Well logging data at four tube wells have been used to mark the super saturated zones with great discharge rate. The present paper shows a geoelectrical identification of the lithology and an estimate of the relationship between the resistivity and Dar Zarrouk parameters (transverse unit resistance and longitudinal unit conductance). The VES results revealed both homogeneous and heterogeneous nature of the subsurface strata. Aquifer is unconfined to confine in nature, and at few locations though perched aquifer has been identified, groundwater potential zones are developed in unconsolidated deposits layers and more than seven geo-electric layers are observed at some VES locations. Saturated zones thickness ranges from 5 m to 150 m, whereas at few area aquifer is beyond 150 m thick. The average anisotropy, transvers resistance and longitudinal conductance values are 0.86 %, 35750.9821 Ω.m2, 0.729 Siemens, respectively. The transverse unit resistance values fluctuate all over the aquifer system, whereas below at particular depth high values are observed, that significantly associated with the high transmissivity zones. The groundwater quality in all analyzed samples is below permissible limit according to World Health Standard (WHO).

Keywords: aquifer, Dar Zarrouk parameters, geoelectric layers, Tarbela Ghazi

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1153 Vehicle Speed Estimation Using Image Processing

Authors: Prodipta Bhowmik, Poulami Saha, Preety Mehra, Yogesh Soni, Triloki Nath Jha

Abstract:

In India, the smart city concept is growing day by day. So, for smart city development, a better traffic management and monitoring system is a very important requirement. Nowadays, road accidents increase due to more vehicles on the road. Reckless driving is mainly responsible for a huge number of accidents. So, an efficient traffic management system is required for all kinds of roads to control the traffic speed. The speed limit varies from road to road basis. Previously, there was a radar system but due to high cost and less precision, the radar system is unable to become favorable in a traffic management system. Traffic management system faces different types of problems every day and it has become a researchable topic on how to solve this problem. This paper proposed a computer vision and machine learning-based automated system for multiple vehicle detection, tracking, and speed estimation of vehicles using image processing. Detection of vehicles and estimating their speed from a real-time video is tough work to do. The objective of this paper is to detect vehicles and estimate their speed as accurately as possible. So for this, a real-time video is first captured, then the frames are extracted from that video, then from that frames, the vehicles are detected, and thereafter, the tracking of vehicles starts, and finally, the speed of the moving vehicles is estimated. The goal of this method is to develop a cost-friendly system that can able to detect multiple types of vehicles at the same time.

Keywords: OpenCV, Haar Cascade classifier, DLIB, YOLOV3, centroid tracker, vehicle detection, vehicle tracking, vehicle speed estimation, computer vision

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1152 Microgravity, Hydrological and Metrological Monitoring of Shallow Ground Water Aquifer in Al-Ain, UAE

Authors: Serin Darwish, Hakim Saibi, Amir Gabr

Abstract:

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is situated within an arid zone where the climate is arid and the recharge of the groundwater is very low. Groundwater is the primary source of water in the United Arab Emirates. However, rapid expansion, population growth, agriculture, and industrial activities have negatively affected these limited water resources. The shortage of water resources has become a serious concern due to the over-pumping of groundwater to meet demand. In addition to the deficit of groundwater, the UAE has one of the highest per capita water consumption rates in the world. In this study, a combination of time-lapse measurements of microgravity and depth to groundwater level in selected wells in Al Ain city was used to estimate the variations in groundwater storage. Al-Ain is the second largest city in Abu Dhabi Emirates and the third largest city in the UAE. The groundwater in this region has been overexploited. Relative gravity measurements were acquired using the Scintrex CG-6 Autograv. This latest generation gravimeter from Scintrex Ltd provides fast, precise gravity measurements and automated corrections for temperature, tide, instrument tilt and rejection of data noise. The CG-6 gravimeter has a resolution of 0.1μGal. The purpose of this study is to measure the groundwater storage changes in the shallow aquifers based on the application of microgravity method. The gravity method is a nondestructive technique that allows collection of data at almost any location over the aquifer. Preliminary results indicate a possible relationship between microgravity and water levels, but more work needs to be done to confirm this. The results will help to develop the relationship between monthly microgravity changes with hydrological and hydrogeological changes of shallow phreatic. The study will be useful in water management considerations and additional future investigations.

Keywords: Al-Ain, arid region, groundwater, microgravity

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1151 Numerical Performance Evaluation of a Savonius Wind Turbines Using Resistive Torque Modeling

Authors: Guermache Ahmed Chafik, Khelfellah Ismail, Ait-Ali Takfarines

Abstract:

The Savonius vertical axis wind turbine is characterized by sufficient starting torque at low wind speeds, simple design and does not require orientation to the wind direction; however, the developed power is lower than other types of wind turbines such as Darrieus. To increase these performances several studies and researches have been developed, such as optimizing blades shape, using passive controls and also minimizing power losses sources like the resisting torque due to friction. This work aims to estimate the performance of a Savonius wind turbine introducing a User Defined Function to the CFD model analyzing resisting torque. This User Defined Function is developed to simulate the action of the wind speed on the rotor; it receives the moment coefficient as an input to compute the rotational velocity that should be imposed on computational domain rotating regions. The rotational velocity depends on the aerodynamic moment applied on the turbine and the resisting torque, which is considered a linear function. Linking the implemented User Defined Function with the CFD solver allows simulating the real functioning of the Savonius turbine exposed to wind. It is noticed that the wind turbine takes a while to reach the stationary regime where the rotational velocity becomes invariable; at that moment, the tip speed ratio, the moment and power coefficients are computed. To validate this approach, the power coefficient versus tip speed ratio curve is compared with the experimental one. The obtained results are in agreement with the available experimental results.

Keywords: resistant torque modeling, Savonius wind turbine, user-defined function, vertical axis wind turbine performances

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1150 A Novel Machining Method and Tool-Path Generation for Bent Mandrel

Authors: Hong Lu, Yongquan Zhang, Wei Fan, Xiangang Su

Abstract:

Bent mandrel has been widely used as precise mould in automobile industry, shipping industry and aviation industry. To improve the versatility and efficiency of turning method of bent mandrel with fixed rotational center, an instantaneous machining model based on cutting parameters and machine dimension is prospered in this paper. The spiral-like tool path generation approach in non-axisymmetric turning process of bent mandrel is developed as well to deal with the error of part-to-part repeatability in existed turning model. The actual cutter-location points are calculated by cutter-contact points, which are obtained from the approach of spiral sweep process using equal-arc-length segment principle in polar coordinate system. The tool offset is set to avoid the interference between tool and work piece is also considered in the machining model. Depend on the spindle rotational angle, synchronization control of X-axis, Z-axis and C-axis is adopted to generate the tool-path of the turning process. The simulation method is developed to generate NC program according to the presented model, which includes calculation of cutter-location points and generation of tool-path of cutting process. With the approach of a bent mandrel taken as an example, the maximum offset of center axis is 4mm in the 3D space. Experiment results verify that the machining model and turning method are appropriate for the characteristics of bent mandrel.

Keywords: bent mandrel, instantaneous machining model, simulation method, tool-path generation

Procedia PDF Downloads 334
1149 Interaction between Space Syntax and Agent-Based Approaches for Vehicle Volume Modelling

Authors: Chuan Yang, Jing Bie, Panagiotis Psimoulis, Zhong Wang

Abstract:

Modelling and understanding vehicle volume distribution over the urban network are essential for urban design and transport planning. The space syntax approach was widely applied as the main conceptual and methodological framework for contemporary vehicle volume models with the help of the statistical method of multiple regression analysis (MRA). However, the MRA model with space syntax variables shows a limitation in vehicle volume predicting in accounting for the crossed effect of the urban configurational characters and socio-economic factors. The aim of this paper is to construct models by interacting with the combined impact of the street network structure and socio-economic factors. In this paper, we present a multilevel linear (ML) and an agent-based (AB) vehicle volume model at an urban scale interacting with space syntax theoretical framework. The ML model allowed random effects of urban configurational characteristics in different urban contexts. And the AB model was developed with the incorporation of transformed space syntax components of the MRA models into the agents’ spatial behaviour. Three models were implemented in the same urban environment. The ML model exhibit superiority over the original MRA model in identifying the relative impacts of the configurational characters and macro-scale socio-economic factors that shape vehicle movement distribution over the city. Compared with the ML model, the suggested AB model represented the ability to estimate vehicle volume in the urban network considering the combined effects of configurational characters and land-use patterns at the street segment level.

Keywords: space syntax, vehicle volume modeling, multilevel model, agent-based model

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1148 Surface Roughness Prediction Using Numerical Scheme and Adaptive Control

Authors: Michael K.O. Ayomoh, Khaled A. Abou-El-Hossein., Sameh F.M. Ghobashy

Abstract:

This paper proposes a numerical modelling scheme for surface roughness prediction. The approach is premised on the use of 3D difference analysis method enhanced with the use of feedback control loop where a set of adaptive weights are generated. The surface roughness values utilized in this paper were adapted from [1]. Their experiments were carried out using S55C high carbon steel. A comparison was further carried out between the proposed technique and those utilized in [1]. The experimental design has three cutting parameters namely: depth of cut, feed rate and cutting speed with twenty-seven experimental sample-space. The simulation trials conducted using Matlab software is of two sub-classes namely: prediction of the surface roughness readings for the non-boundary cutting combinations (NBCC) with the aid of the known surface roughness readings of the boundary cutting combinations (BCC). The following simulation involved the use of the predicted outputs from the NBCC to recover the surface roughness readings for the boundary cutting combinations (BCC). The simulation trial for the NBCC attained a state of total stability in the 7th iteration i.e. a point where the actual and desired roughness readings are equal such that error is minimized to zero by using a set of dynamic weights generated in every following simulation trial. A comparative study among the three methods showed that the proposed difference analysis technique with adaptive weight from feedback control, produced a much accurate output as against the abductive and regression analysis techniques presented in this.

Keywords: Difference Analysis, Surface Roughness; Mesh- Analysis, Feedback control, Adaptive weight, Boundary Element

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1147 Development of Energy Benchmarks Using Mandatory Energy and Emissions Reporting Data: Ontario Post-Secondary Residences

Authors: C. Xavier Mendieta, J. J McArthur

Abstract:

Governments are playing an increasingly active role in reducing carbon emissions, and a key strategy has been the introduction of mandatory energy disclosure policies. These policies have resulted in a significant amount of publicly available data, providing researchers with a unique opportunity to develop location-specific energy and carbon emission benchmarks from this data set, which can then be used to develop building archetypes and used to inform urban energy models. This study presents the development of such a benchmark using the public reporting data. The data from Ontario’s Ministry of Energy for Post-Secondary Educational Institutions are being used to develop a series of building archetype dynamic building loads and energy benchmarks to fill a gap in the currently available building database. This paper presents the development of a benchmark for college and university residences within ASHRAE climate zone 6 areas in Ontario using the mandatory disclosure energy and greenhouse gas emissions data. The methodology presented includes data cleaning, statistical analysis, and benchmark development, and lessons learned from this investigation are presented and discussed to inform the development of future energy benchmarks from this larger data set. The key findings from this initial benchmarking study are: (1) the importance of careful data screening and outlier identification to develop a valid dataset; (2) the key features used to develop a model of the data are building age, size, and occupancy schedules and these can be used to estimate energy consumption; and (3) policy changes affecting the primary energy generation significantly affected greenhouse gas emissions, and consideration of these factors was critical to evaluate the validity of the reported data.

Keywords: building archetypes, data analysis, energy benchmarks, GHG emissions

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1146 Validation of Electrical Field Effect on Electrostatic Desalter Modeling with Experimental Laboratory Data

Authors: Fatemeh Yazdanmehr, Iulian Nistor

Abstract:

The scope of the current study is the evaluation of the electric field effect on electrostatic desalting mathematical modeling with laboratory data. This research study was focused on developing a model for an existing operation desalting unit of one of the Iranian heavy oil field with a 75 MBPD production capacity. The high temperature of inlet oil to dehydration unit reduces the oil recovery, so the mathematical modeling of desalter operation parameters is very significant. The existing production unit operating data has been used for the accuracy of the mathematical desalting plant model. The inlet oil temperature to desalter was decreased from 110 to 80°C, and the desalted electrical field was increased from 0.75 to 2.5 Kv/cm. The model result shows that the desalter parameter changes meet the water-oil specification and also the oil production and consequently annual income is increased. In addition to that, changing desalter operation conditions reduces environmental footprint because of flare gas reduction. Following to specify the accuracy of selected electrostatic desalter electrical field, laboratory data has been used. Experimental data are used to ensure the effect of electrical field change on desalter. Therefore, the lab test is done on a crude oil sample. The results include the dehydration efficiency in the presence of a demulsifier and under electrical field (0.75 Kv) conditions at various temperatures. Comparing lab experimental and electrostatic desalter mathematical model results shows 1-3 percent acceptable error which confirms the validity of desalter specification and operation conditions changes.

Keywords: desalter, electrical field, demulsification, mathematical modeling, water-oil separation

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1145 Educational Experience, Record Keeping, Genetic Selection and Herd Management Effects on Monthly Milk Yield and Revenues of Dairy Farms in Southern Vietnam

Authors: Ngoc-Hieu Vu

Abstract:

A study was conducted to estimate the record keeping, genetic selection, educational experience, and farm management effect on monthly milk yield per farm, average milk yield per cow, monthly milk revenue per farm, and monthly milk revenue per cow of dairy farms in the Southern region of Vietnam. The dataset contained 5448 monthly record collected from January 2013 to May 2015. Results showed that longer experience increased (P < 0.001) monthly milk yields and revenues. Better educated farmers produced more monthly milk per farm and monthly milk per cow and revenues (P < 0.001) than lower educated farmers. Farm that kept records on individual animals had higher (P < 0.001) for monthly milk yields and revenues than farms that did not. Farms that used hired people produced the highest (p < 0.05) monthly milk yield per farm, milk yield per cow and revenues, followed by farms that used both hire and family members, and lowest values were for farms that used family members only. Farms that used crosses Holstein in herd were higher performance (p < 0.001) for all traits than farms that used purebred Holstein and other breeds. Farms that used genetic information and phenotypes when selecting sires were higher (p < 0.05) for all traits than farms that used only phenotypes and personal option. Farms that received help from Vet, organization staff, or government officials had higher monthly milk yield and revenues than those that decided by owner. These findings suggest that dairy farmers should be training in systematic, must be considered and continuous support to improve farm milk production and revenues, to increase the likelihood of adoption on a sustainable way.

Keywords: dairy farming, education, milk yield, Southern Vietnam

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1144 Estimation Model for Concrete Slump Recovery by Using Superplasticizer

Authors: Chaiyakrit Raoupatham, Ram Hari Dhakal, Chalermchai Wanichlamlert

Abstract:

This paper is aimed to introduce the solution of concrete slump recovery using chemical admixture type-F (superplasticizer, naphthalene base) to the practice, in order to solve unusable concrete problem due to concrete loss its slump, especially for those tropical countries that have faster slump loss rate. In the other hand, randomly adding superplasticizer into concrete can cause concrete to segregate. Therefore, this paper also develops the estimation model used to calculate amount of second dose of superplasticizer need for concrete slump recovery. Fresh properties of ordinary Portland cement concrete with volumetric ratio of paste to void between aggregate (paste content) of 1.1-1.3 with water-cement ratio zone of 0.30 to 0.67 and initial superplasticizer (naphthalene base) of 0.25%- 1.6% were tested for initial slump and slump loss for every 30 minutes for one and half hour by slump cone test. Those concretes with slump loss range from 10% to 90% were re-dosed and successfully recovered back to its initial slump. Slump after re-dosed was tested by slump cone test. From the result, it has been concluded that, slump loss was slower for those mix with high initial dose of superplasticizer due to addition of superplasticizer will disturb cement hydration. The required second dose of superplasticizer was affected by two major parameter, which were water-cement ratio and paste content, where lower water-cement ratio and paste content cause an increase in require second dose of superplasticizer. The amount of second dose of superplasticizer is higher as the solid content within the system is increase, solid can be either from cement particles or aggregate. The data was analyzed to form an equation use to estimate the amount of second dosage requirement of superplasticizer to recovery slump to its original.

Keywords: estimation model, second superplasticizer dosage, slump loss, slump recovery

Procedia PDF Downloads 198