Search results for: structural model
17270 An Investigation about Rate Of Evaporation from the Water Surface and LNG Pool
Authors: Farokh Alipour, Ali Falavand, Neda Beit Saeid
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The calculation of the effect of accidental releases of flammable materials such as LNG requires the use of a suitable consequence model. This study is due to providing a planning advice for developments in the vicinity of LNG sites and other sites handling flammable materials. In this paper, an applicable algorithm that is able to model pool fires on water is presented and applied to estimate pool fire damage zone. This procedure can be used to model pool fires on land and could be helpful in consequence modeling and domino effect zone measurements of flammable materials which is needed in site selection and plant layout.Keywords: LNG, pool fire, spill, radiation
Procedia PDF Downloads 39517269 Study of the Removal Efficiency of Azo-Dyes Using Xanthan as Sequestering Agent
Authors: Cedillo Ortiz Cesar Isaac, Marañón-Ruiz Virginia-Francisca, Lozano-Alvarez Juan Antonio, Jáuregui-Rincón Juan, Roger Chiu Zarate
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Introduction: The contamination of water with the azo-dye is a problem worldwide as although wastewater contaminate is treated in a municipal sewage system, still contain a considerable amount of dyes. In the present, there are different processes denominated tertiary method in which it is possible to lower the concentration of the dye. One of these methods is by adsorption onto various materials which can be organic or inorganic materials. The xanthan is a biomaterial as removal agents to decrease the dye content in aqueous solution. The Zimm-Bragg model described the experimental isotherms obtained when this biopolymer was used in the removal of textile dyes. Nevertheless, it was not established if a possible correlation between dye structure and removal efficiency exists. In this sense, the principal objective of this report is to propose a qualitative relationship between the structure of three azo-dyes (Congo Red (CR), Methyl Red (MR) and Methyl Orange (MO)) and their removal efficiency from aqueous environment when xanthan are used as dye sequestering agents. Methods: The dyes were subjected to different pH and ionic strength values to obtain the conditions of maximum dye removal. Afterward, these conditions were used to perform the adsorption isotherm as was reported in the previous study in our group. The Zimm-Bragg model was used to describe the experimental data and the parameters of nucleation (Ku) and cooperativity (U) were obtained by optimization using the R statistical software. The spectra from UV-Visible (aqueous solution), Infrared absorption and Raman spectroscopies (dry samples) were obtained from the biopolymer-dye complex. Results: The removal percent with xanthan in each dye are as follows: with CR had 99.98 % when the pH is 12 and ionic strength is 10.12, with MR had 84.79 % when the pH is 9.5 and ionic strength is 43 and finally the MO had 30 % in pH 4 and 72. It can be seen that when xanthan is used to remove the dyes, exists a lower dependence between structure and removal efficiency. This may be due to the different tendency to form aggregates of each dye. This aggregation capacity and the charge of each dye resulting from the pH and ionic strength values of aqueous solutions are key factors in the dye removal. The experimental isotherm of MR was only that adequately described by Zimm-Bragg model. Because with the CR had the 100 % of remove thus is very difficult obtain de experimental isotherm and finally MO had results fluctuating and therefore was impossible get the accurate data. Conclusions: The study of the removal of three dyes with xanthan as dye sequestering agents suggests that aggregation capacity of dyes and the charge resulting from structural characteristics such as molecular weight and functional groups have a relationship with the removal efficiency. Acknowledgements: We are gratefully acknowledged support for this project by Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnología, México (CONACyT, Grant No. 632694.)Keywords: adsorption, azo dyes, xanthan gum, Zimm Bragg theory
Procedia PDF Downloads 27717268 Self-Compacting White Concrete Mix Design Using the Particle Matrix Model
Authors: Samindi Samarakoon, Ørjan Sletbakk Vie, Remi Kleiven Fjelldal
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White concrete facade elements are widely used in construction industry. It is challenging to achieve the desired workability in casting of white concrete elements. Particle Matrix model was used for proportioning the self-compacting white concrete (SCWC) to control segregation and bleeding and to improve workability. The paper presents how to reach the target slump flow while controlling bleeding and segregation in SCWC. The amount of aggregates, binders and mixing water, as well as type and dosage of superplasticizer (SP) to be used are the major factors influencing the properties of SCWC. Slump flow and compressive strength tests were carried out to examine the performance of SCWC, and the results indicate that the particle matrix model could produce successfully SCWC controlling segregation and bleeding.Keywords: white concrete, particle matrix model, mix design, construction industry
Procedia PDF Downloads 26417267 CFD Studies on Forced Convection Nanofluid Flow Inside a Circular Conduit
Authors: M. Khalid, W. Rashmi, L. L. Kwan
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This work provides an overview on the experimental and numerical simulations of various nanofluids and their flow and heat transfer behavior. It was further extended to study the effect of nanoparticle concentration, fluid flow rates and thermo-physical properties on the heat transfer enhancement of Al2O3/water nanofluid in a turbulent flow circular conduit using ANSYS FLUENT™ 14.0. Single-phase approximation (homogeneous model) and two-phase (mixture and Eulerian) models were used to simulate the nanofluid flow behavior in the 3-D horizontal pipe. The numerical results were further validated with experimental correlations reported in the literature. It was found that heat transfer of nanofluids increases with increasing particle volume concentration and Reynolds number, respectively. Results showed good agreement (~9% deviation) with the experimental correlations, especially for a single-phase model with constant properties. Among two-phase models, mixture model (~14% deviation) showed better prediction compared to Eulerian-dispersed model (~18% deviation) when temperature independent properties were used. Non-drag forces were also employed in the Eulerian two-phase model. However, the two-phase mixture model with temperature dependent nanofluid properties gave slightly closer agreement (~12% deviation).Keywords: nanofluid, CFD, heat transfer, forced convection, circular conduit
Procedia PDF Downloads 51817266 Nowcasting Indonesian Economy
Authors: Ferry Kurniawan
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In this paper, we nowcast quarterly output growth in Indonesia by exploiting higher frequency data (monthly indicators) using a mixed-frequency factor model and exploiting both quarterly and monthly data. Nowcasting quarterly GDP in Indonesia is particularly relevant for the central bank of Indonesia which set the policy rate in the monthly Board of Governors Meeting; whereby one of the important step is the assessment of the current state of the economy. Thus, having an accurate and up-to-date quarterly GDP nowcast every time new monthly information becomes available would clearly be of interest for central bank of Indonesia, for example, as the initial assessment of the current state of the economy -including nowcast- will be used as input for longer term forecast. We consider a small scale mixed-frequency factor model to produce nowcasts. In particular, we specify variables as year-on-year growth rates thus the relation between quarterly and monthly data is expressed in year-on-year growth rates. To assess the performance of the model, we compare the nowcasts with two other approaches: autoregressive model –which is often difficult when forecasting output growth- and Mixed Data Sampling (MIDAS) regression. In particular, both mixed frequency factor model and MIDAS nowcasts are produced by exploiting the same set of monthly indicators. Hence, we compare the nowcasts performance of the two approaches directly. To preview the results, we find that by exploiting monthly indicators using mixed-frequency factor model and MIDAS regression we improve the nowcast accuracy over a benchmark simple autoregressive model that uses only quarterly frequency data. However, it is not clear whether the MIDAS or mixed-frequency factor model is better. Neither set of nowcasts encompasses the other; suggesting that both nowcasts are valuable in nowcasting GDP but neither is sufficient. By combining the two individual nowcasts, we find that the nowcast combination not only increases the accuracy - relative to individual nowcasts- but also lowers the risk of the worst performance of the individual nowcasts.Keywords: nowcasting, mixed-frequency data, factor model, nowcasts combination
Procedia PDF Downloads 32717265 Software Reliability Prediction Model Analysis
Authors: Lela Mirtskhulava, Mariam Khunjgurua, Nino Lomineishvili, Koba Bakuria
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Software reliability prediction gives a great opportunity to measure the software failure rate at any point throughout system test. A software reliability prediction model provides with the technique for improving reliability. Software reliability is very important factor for estimating overall system reliability, which depends on the individual component reliabilities. It differs from hardware reliability in that it reflects the design perfection. Main reason of software reliability problems is high complexity of software. Various approaches can be used to improve the reliability of software. We focus on software reliability model in this article, assuming that there is a time redundancy, the value of which (the number of repeated transmission of basic blocks) can be an optimization parameter. We consider given mathematical model in the assumption that in the system may occur not only irreversible failures, but also a failure that can be taken as self-repairing failures that significantly affect the reliability and accuracy of information transfer. Main task of the given paper is to find a time distribution function (DF) of instructions sequence transmission, which consists of random number of basic blocks. We consider the system software unreliable; the time between adjacent failures has exponential distribution.Keywords: exponential distribution, conditional mean time to failure, distribution function, mathematical model, software reliability
Procedia PDF Downloads 46117264 Parametric Modeling for Survival Data with Competing Risks Using the Generalized Gompertz Distribution
Authors: Noora Al-Shanfari, M. Mazharul Islam
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The cumulative incidence function (CIF) is a fundamental approach for analyzing survival data in the presence of competing risks, which estimates the marginal probability for each competing event. Parametric modeling of CIF has the advantage of fitting various shapes of CIF and estimates the impact of covariates with maximum efficiency. To calculate the total CIF's covariate influence using a parametric model., it is essential to parametrize the baseline of the CIF. As the CIF is an improper function by nature, it is necessary to utilize an improper distribution when applying parametric models. The Gompertz distribution, which is an improper distribution, is limited in its applicability as it only accounts for monotone hazard shapes. The generalized Gompertz distribution, however, can adapt to a wider range of hazard shapes, including unimodal, bathtub, and monotonic increasing or decreasing hazard shapes. In this paper, the generalized Gompertz distribution is used to parametrize the baseline of the CIF, and the parameters of the proposed model are estimated using the maximum likelihood approach. The proposed model is compared with the existing Gompertz model using the Akaike information criterion. Appropriate statistical test procedures and model-fitting criteria will be used to test the adequacy of the model. Both models are applied to the ‘colon’ dataset, which is available in the “biostat3” package in R.Keywords: competing risks, cumulative incidence function, improper distribution, parametric modeling, survival analysis
Procedia PDF Downloads 8917263 Implementation of Deep Neural Networks for Pavement Condition Index Prediction
Authors: M. Sirhan, S. Bekhor, A. Sidess
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In-service pavements deteriorate with time due to traffic wheel loads, environment, and climate conditions. Pavement deterioration leads to a reduction in their serviceability and structural behavior. Consequently, proper maintenance and rehabilitation (M&R) are necessary actions to keep the in-service pavement network at the desired level of serviceability. Due to resource and financial constraints, the pavement management system (PMS) prioritizes roads most in need of maintenance and rehabilitation action. It recommends a suitable action for each pavement based on the performance and surface condition of each road in the network. The pavement performance and condition are usually quantified and evaluated by different types of roughness-based and stress-based indices. Examples of such indices are Pavement Serviceability Index (PSI), Pavement Serviceability Ratio (PSR), Mean Panel Rating (MPR), Pavement Condition Rating (PCR), Ride Number (RN), Profile Index (PI), International Roughness Index (IRI), and Pavement Condition Index (PCI). PCI is commonly used in PMS as an indicator of the extent of the distresses on the pavement surface. PCI values range between 0 and 100; where 0 and 100 represent a highly deteriorated pavement and a newly constructed pavement, respectively. The PCI value is a function of distress type, severity, and density (measured as a percentage of the total pavement area). PCI is usually calculated iteratively using the 'Paver' program developed by the US Army Corps. The use of soft computing techniques, especially Artificial Neural Network (ANN), has become increasingly popular in the modeling of engineering problems. ANN techniques have successfully modeled the performance of the in-service pavements, due to its efficiency in predicting and solving non-linear relationships and dealing with an uncertain large amount of data. Typical regression models, which require a pre-defined relationship, can be replaced by ANN, which was found to be an appropriate tool for predicting the different pavement performance indices versus different factors as well. Subsequently, the objective of the presented study is to develop and train an ANN model that predicts the PCI values. The model’s input consists of percentage areas of 11 different damage types; alligator cracking, swelling, rutting, block cracking, longitudinal/transverse cracking, edge cracking, shoving, raveling, potholes, patching, and lane drop off, at three severity levels (low, medium, high) for each. The developed model was trained using 536,000 samples and tested on 134,000 samples. The samples were collected and prepared by The National Transport Infrastructure Company. The predicted results yielded satisfactory compliance with field measurements. The proposed model predicted PCI values with relatively low standard deviations, suggesting that it could be incorporated into the PMS for PCI determination. It is worth mentioning that the most influencing variables for PCI prediction are damages related to alligator cracking, swelling, rutting, and potholes.Keywords: artificial neural networks, computer programming, pavement condition index, pavement management, performance prediction
Procedia PDF Downloads 13117262 A Systemic Maturity Model
Authors: Emir H. Pernet, Jeimy J. Cano
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Maturity models, used descriptively to explain changes in reality or normatively to guide managers to make interventions to make organizations more effective and efficient, are based on the principles of statistical quality control promulgated by Shewhart in the years 30, and on the principles of PDCA continuous improvement (Plan, Do, Check, Act) developed by Deming and Juran. Some frameworks developed over the concept of maturity models includes COBIT, CMM, and ITIL. This paper presents some limitations of traditional maturity models, most of them based on points of reflection and analysis done by some authors. Almost all limitations are related to the mechanistic and reductionist approach of the principles over those models are built. As Systems Theory helps the understanding of the dynamics of organizations and organizational change, the development of a systemic maturity model can help to overcome some of those limitations. This document proposes a systemic maturity model, based on a systemic conceptualization of organizations, focused on the study of the functioning of the parties, the relationships among them, and their behavior as a whole. The concept of maturity from the system theory perspective is conceptually defined as an emergent property of the organization, which arises from as a result of the degree of alignment and integration of their processes. This concept is operationalized through a systemic function that measures the maturity of an organization, and finally validated by the measuring of maturity in organizations. For its operationalization and validation, the model was applied to measure the maturity of organizational Governance, Risk and Compliance (GRC) processes.Keywords: GRC, maturity model, systems theory, viable system model
Procedia PDF Downloads 30717261 Mathematical Modeling of Skin Condensers for Domestic Refrigerator
Authors: Nitin Ghule, S. G. Taji
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A mathematical model of hot-wall condensers used in refrigerators is presented. The model predicts the heat transfer characteristics of condenser and the effects of various design and operating parameters on condenser tube length and capacity. A finite element approach was used to model the condenser. The condenser tube is divided into elemental units, with each element consisting of adhesive tape, refrigerant tube and outer metal sheet. The heat transfer characteristics of each section are then analyzed by considering the heat transfer through the tube wall, tape and the outer sheet. Variations in inner heat transfer coefficient and pressure drop are considered depending on temperature, fluid phase, type of flow and orientation of tube. Variation in outer heat transfer coefficient is also taken into account. Various materials were analysed for the tube, tape and outer sheet.Keywords: condenser, domestic refrigerator, heat transfer, mathematical model
Procedia PDF Downloads 44917260 Evaluation of Weather Risk Insurance for Agricultural Products Using a 3-Factor Pricing Model
Authors: O. Benabdeljelil, A. Karioun, S. Amami, R. Rouger, M. Hamidine
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A model for preventing the risks related to climate conditions in the agricultural sector is presented. It will determine the yearly optimum premium to be paid by a producer in order to reach his required turnover. The model is based on both climatic stability and 'soft' responses of usually grown species to average climate variations at the same place and inside a safety ball which can be determined from past meteorological data. This allows the use of linear regression expression for dependence of production result in terms of driving meteorological parameters, the main ones of which are daily average sunlight, rainfall and temperature. By simple best parameter fit from the expert table drawn with professionals, optimal representation of yearly production is determined from records of previous years, and yearly payback is evaluated from minimum yearly produced turnover. The model also requires accurate pricing of commodity at N+1. Therefore, a pricing model is developed using 3 state variables, namely the spot price, the difference between the mean-term and the long-term forward price, and the long-term structure of the model. The use of historical data enables to calibrate the parameters of state variables, and allows the pricing of commodity. Application to beet sugar underlines pricer precision. Indeed, the percentage of accuracy between computed result and real world is 99,5%. Optimal premium is then deduced and gives the producer a useful bound for negotiating an offer by insurance companies to effectively protect its harvest. The application to beet production in French Oise department illustrates the reliability of present model with as low as 6% difference between predicted and real data. The model can be adapted to almost any agricultural field by changing state parameters and calibrating their associated coefficients.Keywords: agriculture, production model, optimal price, meteorological factors, 3-factor model, parameter calibration, forward price
Procedia PDF Downloads 37117259 Predicting the Frequencies of Tropical Cyclone-Induced Rainfall Events in the US Using a Machine-Learning Model
Authors: Elham Sharifineyestani, Mohammad Farshchin
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Tropical cyclones are one of the most expensive and deadliest natural disasters. They cause heavy rainfall and serious flash flooding that result in billions of dollars of damage and considerable mortality each year in the United States. Prediction of the frequency of tropical cyclone-induced rainfall events can be helpful in emergency planning and flood risk management. In this study, we have developed a machine-learning model to predict the exceedance frequencies of tropical cyclone-induced rainfall events in the United States. Model results show a satisfactory agreement with available observations. To examine the effectiveness of our approach, we also have compared the result of our predictions with the exceedance frequencies predicted using a physics-based rainfall model by Feldmann.Keywords: flash flooding, tropical cyclones, frequencies, machine learning, risk management
Procedia PDF Downloads 24117258 A Study of Behavioral Phenomena Using an Artificial Neural Network
Authors: Yudhajit Datta
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Will is a phenomenon that has puzzled humanity for a long time. It is a belief that Will Power of an individual affects the success achieved by an individual in life. It is thought that a person endowed with great will power can overcome even the most crippling setbacks of life while a person with a weak will cannot make the most of life even the greatest assets. Behavioral aspects of the human experience such as will are rarely subjected to quantitative study owing to the numerous uncontrollable parameters involved. This work is an attempt to subject the phenomena of will to the test of an artificial neural network. The claim being tested is that will power of an individual largely determines success achieved in life. In the study, an attempt is made to incorporate the behavioral phenomenon of will into a computational model using data pertaining to the success of individuals obtained from an experiment. A neural network is to be trained using data based upon part of the model, and subsequently used to make predictions regarding will corresponding to data points of success. If the prediction is in agreement with the model values, the model is to be retained as a candidate. Ultimately, the best-fit model from among the many different candidates is to be selected, and used for studying the correlation between success and will.Keywords: will power, will, success, apathy factor, random factor, characteristic function, life story
Procedia PDF Downloads 37617257 Condensation of Moist Air in Heat Exchanger Using CFD
Authors: Jan Barak, Karel Frana, Joerg Stiller
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This work presents results of moist air condensation in heat exchanger. It describes theoretical knowledge and definition of moist air. Model with geometry of square canal was created for better understanding and post processing of condensation phenomena. Different approaches were examined on this model to find suitable software and model. Obtained knowledge was applied to geometry of real heat exchanger and results from experiment were compared with numerical results. One of the goals is to solve this issue without creating any user defined function in the applied code. It also contains summary of knowledge and outlook for future work.Keywords: condensation, exchanger, experiment, validation
Procedia PDF Downloads 39617256 Ten Patterns of Organizational Misconduct and a Descriptive Model of Interactions
Authors: Ali Abbas
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This paper presents a descriptive model of organizational misconduct based on observed patterns that occur before and after an ethical collapse. The patterns were classified by categorizing media articles in both "for-profit" and "not-for-profit" organizations. Based on the model parameters, the paper provides a descriptive model of various organizational deflection strategies under numerous scenarios, including situations where ethical complaints build-up, situations under which whistleblowers become more prevalent, situations where large scandals that relate to leadership occur, and strategies by which organizations deflect blame when pressure builds up or when media finds out. The model parameters start with the premise of a tolerance to double standards in unethical acts when conducted by leadership or by members of corporate governance. Following this premise, the model explains how organizations engage in discursive strategies to cover up the potential conflicts that arise, including secret agreements and weakening stakeholders who may oppose the organizational acts. Deflection strategies include "preemptive" and "post-complaint" secret agreements, absence of (or vague) documented procedures, engaging in blame and scapegoating, remaining silent on complaints until the media finds out, as well as being slow (if at all) to acknowledge misconduct and fast to cover it up. The results of this paper may be used to guide organizational leaders into the implications of such shortsighted strategies toward unethical acts, even if they are deemed legal. Validation of the model assumptions through numerous media articles is provided.Keywords: ethical decision making, prediction, scandals, organizational strategies
Procedia PDF Downloads 11617255 Prediction of Mental Health: Heuristic Subjective Well-Being Model on Perceived Stress Scale
Authors: Ahmet Karakuş, Akif Can Kilic, Emre Alptekin
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A growing number of studies have been conducted to determine how well-being may be predicted using well-designed models. It is necessary to investigate the backgrounds of features in order to construct a viable Subjective Well-Being (SWB) model. We have picked the suitable variables from the literature on SWB that are acceptable for real-world data instructions. The goal of this work is to evaluate the model by feeding it with SWB characteristics and then categorizing the stress levels using machine learning methods to see how well it performs on a real dataset. Despite the fact that it is a multiclass classification issue, we have achieved significant metric scores, which may be taken into account for a specific task.Keywords: machine learning, multiclassification problem, subjective well-being, perceived stress scale
Procedia PDF Downloads 12317254 Entrepreneurial Practice and Corruption in Tourism Sector: A Study of Entrepreneurial Orientation and Organizational Corruption in Nepali Star Hotels
Authors: Prabin Raj Gautam
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Entrepreneurship in tourism sectors, particularly hotel entrepreneurship has contributed to Nepalese Gross Domestic Production (GDP). The tourist standard and star hotels in developing countries have not only been generating revenues but also providing international hospitality to the guest in the local areas. For doing so, these hotel enterprises must need to implement different business strategies to enhance and maintain their international business benchmark. The Entrepreneurial Orientation (EO) is core for making business strategies. Meanwhile, the corruption is labeled as negative factor for economic development. This paper presents the relationship between EO of Nepalese star hotels and organizational corruption. The study employed questionnaire survey as data collection tool under the quantitative methodology. Five hypotheses are developed and tested. After gathering the data form 216 questionnaire distributed to CEOs/Managers of the sample hotels, the findings show that out of five dimensions of EO, only autonomy, pro-activeness, and innovativeness are not significant to organizational corruption; however, risk-taking and competitive aggressiveness are found significant contributor. The descriptive statistics and structural equation modeling are employed to describe the data and fit the model.Keywords: entrepreneurship, entrepreneurial orientation, organizational corruption, dimensions
Procedia PDF Downloads 31317253 Educating for Acceptance or Action: Bachelor of Social Work Education in Canada
Authors: Elizabeth Radian
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In a challenging era of neoliberalism and managerialism in social services, the status of Canadian social work education at the Bachelor of Social Work level (BSW) was examined to determine how prepared students were to practice in a time of resource cutbacks and insecurity. Curricula in BSW programs was the focus as this generalist degree results in the greatest number of social work graduates in Canada, most of whom work at the front lines in service delivery. The study reviewed the practice frameworks that students in BSW programs were exposed to. Traditionally, schools of social work have embraced two major practice frameworks. The person in environment framework is a well-established practice framework taught in most schools. The framework offers some focus on smaller scale social change, tweaking existing arrangements and is more accepting of the status quo. An alternate practice framework taught in fewer schools has been described as a structural, progressive or anti oppressive framework. This latter framework challenges the status quo, is focused on social justice and social transformation, often incorporating social action strategies to ensure marginalized voices are heard. Using a content analysis methodology of keywords and phrases to delineate framework orientation, practice frameworks articulated in the curricula were determined by reviewing the mission/mandate of schools offering a BSW degree, their core course outlines and core course textbooks. Social action, as one strategy for initiating social change and transformation was considered. Initial research for 28 schools was completed in 2000, with follow up replications of the initial study in 2005 and 2014. These earlier studies displayed that the dominant practice framework taught in BSW programs was the person in environment framework. A lesser number of schools were categorized as primarily offering a structural, progressive or anti oppressive framework. The findings from the current study of 39 Canadian schools of social work are considered to determine how prominent structural, progressive and anti oppressive frameworks exist in current BSW curricula. This study can assist in contemplating the question – are we educating future practitioners for acceptance or action.Keywords: social work education and pedagogy, social change, social justice, social services
Procedia PDF Downloads 18817252 Licensing in a Hotelling Model with Quadratic Transportation Costs
Authors: Fehmi Bouguezzi
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This paper studies optimal licensing regimes in a linear Hotelling model where firms are located at the end points of the city and where the transportation cost is not linear but quadratic. We study for that a more general cost function and we try to compare the findings with the results of the linear cost. We find the same optimal licensing regimes. A per unit royalty is optimal when innovation is not drastic and no licensing is better when innovation is drastic. We also find that no licensing is always better than fixed fee licensing.Keywords: Hotelling model, technology transfer, patent licensing, quadratic transportation cost
Procedia PDF Downloads 34517251 Extreme Value Modelling of Ghana Stock Exchange Indices
Authors: Kwabena Asare, Ezekiel N. N. Nortey, Felix O. Mettle
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Modelling of extreme events has always been of interest in fields such as hydrology and meteorology. However, after the recent global financial crises, appropriate models for modelling of such rare events leading to these crises have become quite essential in the finance and risk management fields. This paper models the extreme values of the Ghana Stock Exchange All-Shares indices (2000-2010) by applying the Extreme Value Theory to fit a model to the tails of the daily stock returns data. A conditional approach of the EVT was preferred and hence an ARMA-GARCH model was fitted to the data to correct for the effects of autocorrelation and conditional heteroscedastic terms present in the returns series, before EVT method was applied. The Peak Over Threshold (POT) approach of the EVT, which fits a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) model to excesses above a certain selected threshold, was employed. Maximum likelihood estimates of the model parameters were obtained and the model’s goodness of fit was assessed graphically using Q-Q, P-P and density plots. The findings indicate that the GPD provides an adequate fit to the data of excesses. The size of the extreme daily Ghanaian stock market movements were then computed using the Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) risk measures at some high quantiles, based on the fitted GPD model.Keywords: extreme value theory, expected shortfall, generalized pareto distribution, peak over threshold, value at risk
Procedia PDF Downloads 55017250 Half Model Testing for Canard of a Hybrid Buoyant Aircraft
Authors: Anwar U. Haque, Waqar Asrar, Ashraf Ali Omar, Erwin Sulaeman, Jaffer Sayed Mohamed Ali
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Due to the interference effects, the intrinsic aerodynamic parameters obtained from the individual component testing are always fundamentally different than those obtained for complete model testing. Consideration and limitation for such testing need to be taken into account in any design work related to the component buildup method. In this paper, the scaled model of a straight rectangular canard of a hybrid buoyant aircraft is tested at 50 m/s in IIUM-LSWT (Low-Speed Wind Tunnel). Model and its attachment with the balance are kept rigid to have results free from the aeroelastic distortion. Based on the velocity profile of the test section’s floor; the height of the model is kept equal to the corresponding boundary layer displacement. Balance measurements provide valuable but limited information of the overall aerodynamic behavior of the model. Zero lift coefficient is obtained at -2.2o and the corresponding drag coefficient was found to be less than that at zero angles of attack. As a part of the validation of low fidelity tool, the plot of lift coefficient plot was verified by the experimental data and except the value of zero lift coefficient, the overall trend has under-predicted the lift coefficient. Based on this comparative study, a correction factor of 1.36 is proposed for lift curve slope obtained from the panel method.Keywords: wind tunnel testing, boundary layer displacement, lift curve slope, canard, aerodynamics
Procedia PDF Downloads 46517249 Pressure-Controlled Dynamic Equations of the PFC Model: A Mathematical Formulation
Authors: Jatupon Em-Udom, Nirand Pisutha-Arnond
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The phase-field-crystal, PFC, approach is a density-functional-type material model with an atomic resolution on a diffusive timescale. Spatially, the model incorporates periodic nature of crystal lattices and can naturally exhibit elasticity, plasticity and crystal defects such as grain boundaries and dislocations. Temporally, the model operates on a diffusive timescale which bypasses the need to resolve prohibitively small atomic-vibration time steps. The PFC model has been used to study many material phenomena such as grain growth, elastic and plastic deformations and solid-solid phase transformations. In this study, the pressure-controlled dynamic equation for the PFC model was developed to simulate a single-component system under externally applied pressure; these coupled equations are important for studies of deformable systems such as those under constant pressure. The formulation is based on the non-equilibrium thermodynamics and the thermodynamics of crystalline solids. To obtain the equations, the entropy variation around the equilibrium point was derived. Then the resulting driving forces and flux around the equilibrium were obtained and rewritten as conventional thermodynamic quantities. These dynamics equations are different from the recently-proposed equations; the equations in this study should provide more rigorous descriptions of the system dynamics under externally applied pressure.Keywords: driving forces and flux, evolution equation, non equilibrium thermodynamics, Onsager’s reciprocal relation, phase field crystal model, thermodynamics of single-component solid
Procedia PDF Downloads 30117248 Impact of Blended Learning in Interior Architecture Programs in Academia: A Case Study of Arcora Garage Academy from Turkey
Authors: Arzu Firlarer, Duygu Gocmen, Gokhan Uysal
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There is currently a growing trend among universities towards blended learning. Blended learning is becoming increasingly important in higher education, with the aims of better accomplishing course learning objectives, meeting students’ changing needs and promoting effective learning both in a theoretical and practical dimension like interior architecture discipline. However, the practical dimension of the discipline cannot be supported in the university environment. During the undergraduate program, the practical training which is tried to be supported by two different internship programs cannot fully meet the requirements of the blended learning. The lack of education program frequently expressed by our graduates and employers is revealed in the practical knowledge and skills dimension of the profession. After a series of meetings for curriculum studies, interviews with the chambers of profession, meetings with interior architects, a gap between the theoretical and practical training modules is seen as a problem in all interior architecture departments. It is thought that this gap can be solved by a new education model which is formed by the cooperation of University-Industry in the concept of blended learning. In this context, it is considered that theoretical and applied knowledge accumulation can be provided by the creation of industry-supported educational environments at the university. In the application process of the Interior Architecture discipline, the use of materials and technical competence will only be possible with the cooperation of industry and participation of students in the production/manufacture processes as observers and practitioners. Wood manufacturing is an important part of interior architecture applications. Wood productions is a sustainable structural process where production details, material knowledge, and process details can be observed in the most effective way. From this point of view, after theoretical training about wooden materials, wood applications and production processes are given to the students, practical training for production/manufacture planning is supported by active participation and observation in the processes. With this blended model, we aimed to develop a training model in which theoretical and practical knowledge related to the production of wood works will be conveyed in a meaningful, lasting way by means of university-industry cooperation. The project is carried out in Ankara with Arcora Architecture and Furniture Company and Başkent University Department of Interior Design where university-industry cooperation is realized. Within the scope of the project, every week the video of that week’s lecture is recorded and prepared to be disseminated by digital medias such as Udemy. In this sense, the program is not only developed by the project participants, but also other institutions and people who are trained and practiced in the field of design. Both academicians from University and at least 15-year experienced craftsmen in the wood metal and dye sectors are preparing new training reference documents for interior architecture undergraduate programs. These reference documents will be a model for other Interior Architecture departments of the universities and will be used for creating an online education module.Keywords: blended learning, interior design, sustainable training, effective learning.
Procedia PDF Downloads 13117247 Best Responses for the Dynamic Model of Hotel Room Rate
Authors: Xuan Tran
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The purpose of this paper is to present a comprehensive dynamic model for pricing strategies in the hotel competition to find a win-win situation for the competitive set. By utilizing the Cobb-Douglas utility model, the study establishes room rates by analyzing the price elasticity of demand across a competitive set of four hotels, with a focus on occupancy rates. To further enhance the analysis, game theory is applied to identify the best response for each competitive party, which illustrates the optimal pricing strategy for each hotel in the competitive landscape. This approach offers valuable insights into how hotels can strategically adjust their room rates in response to market conditions and competitor actions. The primary contributions of this research include as follows: (1) advantages for both individual hotels and the broader competitive hotel market, (2) benefits for hotel management overseeing multiple brands, and (3) positive impacts on the local community.Keywords: dynamic model, game theory, best response, Cobb-Douglas
Procedia PDF Downloads 1417246 Experimental Investigation and Constitutive Modeling of Volume Strain under Uniaxial Strain Rate Jump Test in HDPE
Authors: Rida B. Arieby, Hameed N. Hameed
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In this work, tensile tests on high density polyethylene have been carried out under various constant strain rate and strain rate jump tests. The dependency of the true stress and specially the variation of volume strain have been investigated, the volume strain due to the phenomena of damage was determined in real time during the tests by an optical extensometer called Videotraction. A modified constitutive equations, including strain rate and damage effects, are proposed, such a model is based on a non-equilibrium thermodynamic approach called (DNLR). The ability of the model to predict the complex nonlinear response of this polymer is examined by comparing the model simulation with the available experimental data, which demonstrate that this model can represent the deformation behavior of the polymer reasonably well.Keywords: strain rate jump tests, volume strain, high density polyethylene, large strain, thermodynamics approach
Procedia PDF Downloads 25517245 Hidden Markov Model for the Simulation Study of Neural States and Intentionality
Authors: R. B. Mishra
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Hidden Markov Model (HMM) has been used in prediction and determination of states that generate different neural activations as well as mental working conditions. This paper addresses two applications of HMM; one to determine the optimal sequence of states for two neural states: Active (AC) and Inactive (IA) for the three emission (observations) which are for No Working (NW), Waiting (WT) and Working (W) conditions of human beings. Another is for the determination of optimal sequence of intentionality i.e. Believe (B), Desire (D), and Intention (I) as the states and three observational sequences: NW, WT and W. The computational results are encouraging and useful.Keywords: hiden markov model, believe desire intention, neural activation, simulation
Procedia PDF Downloads 37217244 A Prediction Method for Large-Size Event Occurrences in the Sandpile Model
Authors: S. Channgam, A. Sae-Tang, T. Termsaithong
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In this research, the occurrences of large size events in various system sizes of the Bak-Tang-Wiesenfeld sandpile model are considered. The system sizes (square lattice) of model considered here are 25×25, 50×50, 75×75 and 100×100. The cross-correlation between the ratio of sites containing 3 grain time series and the large size event time series for these 4 system sizes are also analyzed. Moreover, a prediction method of the large-size event for the 50×50 system size is also introduced. Lastly, it can be shown that this prediction method provides a slightly higher efficiency than random predictions.Keywords: Bak-Tang-Wiesenfeld sandpile model, cross-correlation, avalanches, prediction method
Procedia PDF Downloads 37617243 Modelling of Heating and Evaporation of Biodiesel Fuel Droplets
Authors: Mansour Al Qubeissi, Sergei S. Sazhin, Cyril Crua, Morgan R. Heikal
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This paper presents the application of the Discrete Component Model for heating and evaporation to multi-component biodiesel fuel droplets in direct injection internal combustion engines. This model takes into account the effects of temperature gradient, recirculation and species diffusion inside droplets. A distinctive feature of the model used in the analysis is that it is based on the analytical solutions to the temperature and species diffusion equations inside the droplets. Nineteen types of biodiesel fuels are considered. It is shown that a simplistic model, based on the approximation of biodiesel fuel by a single component or ignoring the diffusion of components of biodiesel fuel, leads to noticeable errors in predicted droplet evaporation time and time evolution of droplet surface temperature and radius.Keywords: heat/mass transfer, biodiesel, multi-component fuel, droplet
Procedia PDF Downloads 56217242 Clustering of Natural and Nature Derived Compounds for Cardiovascular Disease: Pharmacophore Modeling
Authors: S. Roy, R. Rekha, K. Sriram, G. Subhadra, R. Johana
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Cardiovascular disease remains a leading cause of death in most industrialized countries. Many chemical drugs are available in the market which targets different receptor proteins related to cardiovascular diseases. Of late the traditional herbal drugs are safer when compared to chemical drugs because of its side effects. However, many herbal remedies used in treating cardiovascular diseases have not undergone scientific assessment to prove its pharmacological activities. There are many natural compounds, nature derived and Natural product mimic compounds are available which are in the market as approved drug. In the most of the cases drug activity at the molecular level are not known. Here we have categorized those compounds with our experimental compounds in different classes based on the structural similarity and physicochemical properties, using a tool, Chemmine and has attempted to understand the mechanism of the action of a experimental compound, which are clustered with Simvastatin, Lovastatin, Mevastatin and Pravastatin. Target protein molecule for Simvastatin, Lovastatin, Mevastatin and Pravastatin is HMG-CoA reductase, so we concluded that the experimental compound may be able to bind to the same target. Molecular docking and atomic interaction studies with simvastatin and our experimental compound were compared. A pharmacophore modeling was done based on the experimental compound and HMG-CoA reductase inhibitor.Keywords: molecular docking, physicochemical properties, pharmacophore modeling structural similarity, pravastatin
Procedia PDF Downloads 31617241 The Exploration of the Physical Properties of the Combinations of Selenium-Based Ternary Chalcogenides AScSe₂ (A=K, Cs) for Photovoltaic Applications
Authors: Ayesha Asma, Aqsa Arooj
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It is an essential need in this era of Science and Technology to investigate some unique and appropriate materials for optoelectronic applications. Here, we deliberated, for the first time, the structural, optoelectronic, mechanical, vibrational, and thermo dynamical properties of hexagonal structure selenium-based ternary chalcogenides AScSe₂ (A= K, Cs) by using Perdew-Burke-Ernzerhof Generalized-Gradient-Approximation (PBE-GGA). The lattice angles for these materials are found as α=β=90o and γ=120o. KScSe₂ optimized with lattice parameters a=b=4.3 (Å), c=7.81 (Å) whereas CsScSe₂ got relaxed at a=b=4.43 (Å) and c=8.51 (Å). However, HSE06 functional has overestimated the lattice parameters to the extent that for KScSe₂ a=b=4.92 (Å), c=7.10 (Å), and CsScSe₂ a=b=5.15 (Å), c=7.09 (Å). The energy band gap of these materials calculated via PBE-GGA and HSE06 functionals confirms their semiconducting nature. Concerning Born’s criteria, these materials are mechanically stable ones. Moreover, the temperature dependence of thermodynamic potentials and specific heat at constant volume are also determined while using the harmonic approximation. The negative values of free energy ensure their thermodynamic stability. The vibrational modes are calculated by plotting the phonon dispersion and the vibrational density of states (VDOS), where infrared (IR) and Raman spectroscopy are used to characterize the vibrational modes. The various optical parameters are examined at a smearing value of 0.5eV. These parameters unveil that these materials are good absorbers of incident light in ultra-violet (UV) regions and may be utilized in photovoltaic applications.Keywords: structural, optimized, vibrational, ultraviolet
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