Search results for: neural network models

Authors: Syed Tahir Shah, Fazal Muhammad, Syed Kashif Shah, Maleeha Gul

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In recent days, natural gas has become a relatively clean and quality source of energy, which is recovered from deep wells by expensive drilling activities. The recovered substance is purified by processing in multiple stages to remove the unwanted/containments like dust, dirt, crude oil and other particles. Mostly, gas utilities are concerned with essential objectives of quantity/quality of natural gas delivery, financial outcome and safe natural gas volumetric inventory in the transmission gas pipeline. Gas quantity and quality are primarily related to standards / advanced metering procedures in processing units/transmission systems, and the financial outcome is defined by purchasing and selling gas also the operational cost of the transmission pipeline. SNGPL (Sui Northern Gas Pipelines Limited) Pakistan has a wide range of diameters of natural gas transmission pipelines network of over 9125 km. This research results in answer a few of the issues in accuracy/metering procedures via multiple advanced gadgets for gas flow attributes after being utilized in the transmission system and research. The effects of good pressure management in transmission gas pipeline network in contemplation to boost the gas volume deposited in the existing network and finally curbing gas losses UFG (Unaccounted for gas) for financial benefits. Furthermore, depending on the results and their observation, it is directed to enhance the maximum allowable working/operating pressure (MAOP) of the system to 1235 PSIG from the current round about 900 PSIG, such that the capacity of the network could be entirely utilized. In gross, the results depict that the current model is very efficient and provides excellent results in the minimum possible time.

Keywords: natural gas, pipeline network, UFG, transmission pack, AGA

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Authors: F. A. Olutoge, O.R. Olulope, M. O. Odelola

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This study investigates the strength potentials of groundnut husk ash as partial cement replacement in mortar and also develops a predictive model using Artificial Neural Network. Groundnut husks sourced from Ogbomoso, Nigeria, was sun dried, calcined to ash in a furnace at a controlled temperature of 600⁰ C for a period of 6 hours, and sieved through the 75 microns. The ash was subjected to chemical analysis and setting time test. Fine aggregate (sand) for the mortar was sourced from Ado Ekiti, Nigeria. The cement: GHA constituents were blended in ratios 100:0, 95:5, 90:10, 85:15 and 80:20 %. The sum of SiO₂, Al₂O₃, and Fe₂O₃ content in GHA is 26.98%. The compressive strength for mortars PC, GHA5, GHA10, GHA15, and GHA20 ranged from 6.3-10.2 N/mm² at 7days, 7.5-12.3 N/mm² at 14 days, 9.31-13.7 N/mm² at 28 days, 10.4-16.7 N/mm² at 56days and 13.35- 22.3 N/mm² at 90 days respectively, PC, GHA5 and GHA10 had competitive values up to 28 days, but GHA10 gave the highest values at 56 and 90 days while GHA20 had the lowest values at all ages due to dilution effect. Flexural strengths values at 28 days ranged from 1.08 to 1.87 N/mm² and increased to a range of 1.53-4.10 N/mm² at 90 days. The ANN model gave good prediction for compressive strength of the mortars. This study has shown that groundnut husk ash as partial cement replacement improves the strength properties of mortar.

Keywords: compressive strength, groundnut husk ash, mortar, pozzolanic index

Procedia PDF Downloads 159

Authors: Dian Zhang, Brendan Heery, Maria O’Neill, Ciprian Briciu-Burghina, Noel E. O’Connor, Fiona Regan

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Recent developments in sensors, wireless data communication and the cloud computing have brought the sensor web to a whole new generation. The introduction of the concept of ‘Internet of Thing (IoT)’ has brought the sensor research into a new level, which involves the developing of long lasting, low cost, environment friendly and smart sensors; new wireless data communication technologies; big data analytics algorithms and cloud based solutions that are tailored to large scale smart sensor network. The next generation of smart sensor network consists of several layers: physical layer, where all the smart sensors resident and data pre-processes occur, either on the sensor itself or field gateway; data transmission layer, where data and instructions exchanges happen; the data process layer, where meaningful information is extracted and organized from the pre-process data stream. There are many definitions of smart sensor, however, to summarize all these definitions, a smart sensor must be Intelligent and Adaptable. In future large scale sensor network, collected data are far too large for traditional applications to send, store or process. The sensor unit must be intelligent that pre-processes collected data locally on board (this process may occur on field gateway depends on the sensor network structure). In this case study, three smart sensing methods, corresponding to simple thresholding, statistical model and machine learning based MoPBAS method, are introduced and their strength and weakness are discussed as an introduction to the smart sensing concept. Data fusion, the integration of data and knowledge from multiple sources, are key components of the next generation smart sensor network. For example, in the water level monitoring system, weather forecast can be extracted from external sources and if a heavy rainfall is expected, the server can send instructions to the sensor notes to, for instance, increase the sampling rate or switch on the sleeping mode vice versa. In this paper, we describe the deployment of 11 affordable water level sensors in the Dublin catchment. The objective of this paper is to use the deployed river level sensor network at the Dodder catchment in Dublin, Ireland as a case study to give a vision of the next generation of a smart sensor network for flood monitoring to assist agencies in making decisions about deploying resources in the case of a severe flood event. Some of the deployed sensors are located alongside traditional water level sensors for validation purposes. Using the 11 deployed river level sensors in a network as a case study, a vision of the next generation of smart sensor network is proposed. Each key component of the smart sensor network is discussed, which hopefully inspires the researchers who are working in the sensor research domain.

Keywords: smart sensing, internet of things, water level sensor, flooding

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Authors: Sneha Leslie

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The current situation in the cyber world is that crimes performed by Botnets are increasing and the masterminds (botmaster) are not detectable easily. The botmaster in the botnet compromises the legitimate host machines in the network and make them bots or zombies to initiate the cyber-attacks. This paper will focus on the live detection of the botmaster in the network by using the strong framework 'metasploit', when distributed denial of service (DDOS) attack is performed by the botnet. The affected victim machine will be continuously monitoring its incoming packets. Once the victim machine gets to know about the excessive count of packets from any IP, that particular IP is noted and details of the noted systems are gathered. Using the vulnerabilities present in the zombie machines (already compromised by botmaster), the victim machine will compromise them. By gaining access to the compromised systems, applications are run remotely. By analyzing the incoming packets of the zombies, the victim comes to know the address of the botmaster. This is an effective and a simple system where no specific features of communication protocol are considered.

Keywords: bonet, DDoS attack, network security, detection system, metasploit framework

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Authors: Shashank Bhatnagar, W. Wilfred Godfrey

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We develop in this paper, an approach to find the trendy topic, which not only considers the user-topic interaction but also considers the community, in which user belongs. This method modifies the previous approach of user-topic interaction to user-community-topic interaction with better speed-up in the range of [1.1-3]. We assume that trend detection in a social network is dependent on two things. The one is, broadcast of messages in social network governed by self-exciting point process, namely called Hawkes process and the second is, Community Rank. The influencer node links to others in the community and decides the community rank based on its PageRank and the number of users links to that community. The community rank decides the influence of one community over the other. Hence, the Hawkes process with the kernel of user-community-topic decides the trendy topic disseminated into the social network.

Keywords: community detection, community rank, Hawkes process, influencer node, pagerank, trend detection

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Authors: Jiun Jeon, Byung-Ju Yi

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This paper investigates modeling and shape prediction of elastic kinematic chains such as colonoscopy. 2D and 3D models of elastic kinematic chains are suggested and their behaviors are demonstrated through simulation. To corroborate the effectiveness of those models, experimental work is performed using a magnetic sensor system.

Keywords: elastic kinematic chain, shape prediction, colonoscopy, modeling

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Authors: Zheni S. Stefanova, Kandethody M. Ramachandran

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With the increasing dependency on our computer devices, we face the necessity of adequate, efficient and effective mechanisms, for protecting our network. There are two main problems that Intrusion Detection Systems (IDS) attempt to solve. 1) To detect the attack, by analyzing the incoming traffic and inspect the network (intrusion detection). 2) To produce a prompt response when the attack occurs (intrusion prevention). It is critical creating an Intrusion detection model that will detect a breach in the system on time and also challenging making it provide an automatic and with an acceptable delay response at every single stage of the monitoring process. We cannot afford to adopt security measures with a high exploiting computational power, and we are not able to accept a mechanism that will react with a delay. In this paper, we will propose an intrusion response mechanism that is based on artificial intelligence, and more precisely, reinforcement learning techniques (RLT). The RLT will help us to create a decision agent, who will control the process of interacting with the undetermined environment. The goal is to find an optimal policy, which will represent the intrusion response, therefore, to solve the Reinforcement learning problem, using a Q-learning approach. Our agent will produce an optimal immediate response, in the process of evaluating the network traffic.This Q-learning approach will establish the balance between exploration and exploitation and provide a unique, self-learning and strategic artificial intelligence response mechanism for IDS.

Keywords: cyber security, intrusion prevention, optimal policy, Q-learning

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Authors: Agus Masrukhin

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This research aims to find and analyze the model of character building in the Police Headquarters in Bali with a case study of Muslim members in improving the quality of the morality of its members. The formation of patterns of thinking, behavior, mentality, and police officers noble character, later can be used as a solution to reduce the hedonistic nature of the challenges in the era of globalization. The benefit of this study is expected to be a positive recommendation to find a constructive character building models of police officers in the Republic of Indonesia, especially Bali Police. For the long term, the discovery of the character building models can be developed for the entire police force in Indonesia. The type of research that would apply in this study researchers mix the qualitative research methods based on the narrative between the subject and the concrete experience of field research and quantitative research methods with 92 respondents from the police regional police Bali. This research used a descriptive analysis and SWOT analysis then it is presented in the FGD (focus group discussion). The results of this research indicate that the variable modeling the leadership of the police and variable police offices culture have significant influence on the implementation of spiritual development.

Keywords: positive constructive, hedonistic, character models, morality

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Authors: Niousha Bagheri Khulenjani, Mohammad Saniee Abadeh

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Learning from very big datasets is a significant problem for most present data mining and machine learning algorithms. MicroRNA (miRNA) is one of the important big genomic and non-coding datasets presenting the genome sequences. In this paper, a hybrid method for the classification of the miRNA data is proposed. Due to the variety of cancers and high number of genes, analyzing the miRNA dataset has been a challenging problem for researchers. The number of features corresponding to the number of samples is high and the data suffer from being imbalanced. The feature selection method has been used to select features having more ability to distinguish classes and eliminating obscures features. Afterward, a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) classifier for classification of cancer types is utilized, which employs a Genetic Algorithm to highlight optimized hyper-parameters of CNN. In order to make the process of classification by CNN faster, Graphics Processing Unit (GPU) is recommended for calculating the mathematic equation in a parallel way. The proposed method is tested on a real-world dataset with 8,129 patients, 29 different types of tumors, and 1,046 miRNA biomarkers, taken from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) database.

Keywords: cancer classification, feature selection, deep learning, genetic algorithm

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Authors: Zhuoneng Li, Zeeshan A. Rana, Karl W. Jenkins

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In industry, to validate a case, often a multitude of simulation are required and in order to demonstrate confidence in the process where users tend to use a coarser mesh. Therefore, it is imperative to establish the coarsest mesh that could be used while keeping reasonable simulation accuracy. To date, the two most reliable, affordable and broadly used advanced simulations are the hybrid RANS (Reynolds Averaged Navier Stokes)/LES (Large Eddy Simulation) and wall modelled LES. The potentials in these two simulations will still be developed in the next decades mainly because the unaffordable computational cost of a DNS (Direct Numerical Simulation). In the wall modelled LES, the turbulence model is applied as a sub-grid scale model in the most inner layer near the wall. The RANS turbulence models cover the entire boundary layer region in a hybrid RANS/LES (Detached Eddy Simulation) and its variants, therefore, the RANS still has a very important role in the state of art simulations. This research focuses on the turbulence model mesh sensitivity analysis where various turbulence models such as the S-A (Spalart-Allmaras), SSG (Speziale-Sarkar-Gatski), K-Omega transitional SST (Shear Stress Transport), K-kl-Omega, γ-Reθ transitional model, v2f are evaluated within the OpenFOAM. The simulations are conducted on a fully developed turbulent flow over a flat plate where the skin friction coefficient as well as velocity profiles are obtained to compare against experimental values and DNS results. A concrete conclusion is made to clarify the mesh sensitivity for different turbulence models.

Keywords: mesh sensitivity, turbulence models, OpenFOAM, RANS

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Authors: Hanna Lu, Sandra S. M. Chan, Linda C. W. Lam

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Objectives: Intra-individual variability (IIV) has been considered as a biomarker of healthy ageing. However, the composite role of IIV in attention, as an impending indicator for neurocognitive disorders warrants further exploration. This study aims to investigate the IIV, as well as their relationships with attention network functions in adults with neurocognitive disorders (NCD). Methods: 36adults with NCD due to Alzheimer’s disease(NCD-AD), 31adults with NCD due to vascular disease (NCD-vascular), and 137 healthy controls were recruited. Intraindividual standard deviations (iSD) and intraindividual coefficient of variation of reaction time (ICV-RT) were used to evaluate the IIV. Results: NCD groups showed greater IIV (iSD: F= 11.803, p < 0.001; ICV-RT:F= 9.07, p < 0.001). In ROC analyses, the indices of IIV could differentiateNCD-AD (iSD: AUC value = 0.687, p= 0.001; ICV-RT: AUC value = 0.677, p= 0.001) and NCD-vascular (iSD: AUC value = 0.631, p= 0.023;ICV-RT: AUC value = 0.615, p= 0.045) from healthy controls. Moreover, the processing speed could distinguish NCD-AD from NCD-vascular (AUC value = 0.647, p= 0.040). Discussion: Intra-individual variability in attention provides a stable measure of cognitive performance, and seems to help distinguish the senior adults with different cognitive status.

Keywords: intra-individual variability, attention network, neurocognitive disorders, ageing

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Authors: Niya Chen, Jennifer Chan

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In the financial market, risk management helps to minimize potential loss and maximize profit. There are two ways to assess risks; the first way is to calculate the risk directly based on the volatility. The most common risk measurements are Value at Risk (VaR), sharp ratio, and beta. Alternatively, we could look at the quantile of the return to assess the risk. Popular return models such as GARCH and stochastic volatility (SV) focus on modeling the mean of the return distribution via capturing the volatility dynamics; however, the quantile/expectile method will give us an idea of the distribution with the extreme return value. It will allow us to forecast VaR using return which is direct information. The advantage of using these non-parametric methods is that it is not bounded by the distribution assumptions from the parametric method. But the difference between them is that expectile uses a second-order loss function while quantile regression uses a first-order loss function. We consider several quantile functions, different volatility measures, and estimates from some volatility models. To estimate the expectile of the model, we use Realized Conditional Autoregressive Expectile (CARE) model with the bayesian method to achieve this. We would like to see if our proposed models outperform existing models in cryptocurrency, and we will test it by using Bitcoin mainly as well as Ethereum.

Keywords: expectile, CARE Model, CARR Model, quantile, cryptocurrency, Value at Risk

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Authors: Lyka Selene Magnayi, Marcos Vinas, Roseanne Ramos

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As the real estate industry continually grows in the Philippines, Geographic Information Systems (GIS) provide advantages in generating spatial databases for efficient delivery of information and services. The real estate sector is not only providing qualitative data about real estate properties but also utilizes various spatial aspects of these properties for different applications such as hazard mapping and assessment. In this study, a three-dimensional (3D) model and a spatial database of real estate properties in Fort Bonifacio, Taguig City are developed using GIS and SketchUp. Spatial datasets include political boundaries, buildings, road network, digital terrain model (DTM) derived from Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (IFSAR) image, Google Earth satellite imageries, and hazard maps. Multiple model layers were created based on property listings by a partner real estate company, including existing and future property buildings. Actual building dimensions, building facade, and building floorplans are incorporated in these 3D models for geovisualization. Hazard model layers are determined through spatial overlays, and different scenarios of hazards are also presented in the models. Animated maps and walkthrough videos were created for company presentation and evaluation. Model evaluation is conducted through client surveys requiring scores in terms of the appropriateness, information content, and design of the 3D models. Survey results show very satisfactory ratings, with the highest average evaluation score equivalent to 9.21 out of 10. The output maps and videos obtained passing rates based on the criteria and standards set by the intended users of the partner real estate company. The methodologies presented in this study were found useful and have remarkable advantages in the real estate industry. This work may be extended to automated mapping and creation of online spatial databases for better storage, access of real property listings and interactive platform using web-based GIS.

Keywords: geovisualization, geographic information systems, GIS, real estate, spatial database, three-dimensional model

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Authors: G. M. Komba

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The Internet Gateway (IGW) has extra ability than a simple Mesh Router (MR) and the responsibility to route mostly the all traffic from Mesh Clients (MCs) to the Internet backbone however, IGWs are more expensive. Choosing strategic locations for the Internet Gateways (IGWs) best location in Backbone Wireless Mesh (BWM) precarious to the Wireless Mesh Network (WMN) and the location of IGW can improve a quantity of performance related problem. In this paper, we propose a novel algorithm, namely New Gateway Location Algorithm (NGLA), which aims to achieve four objectives, decreasing the network cost effective, minimizing delay, optimizing the throughput capacity, Different from existing algorithms, the NGLA increasingly recognizes IGWs, allocates mesh routers (MRs) to identify IGWs and promises to find a feasible IGW location and install minimum as possible number of IGWs while regularly conserving the all Quality of Service (QoS) requests. Simulation results showing that the NGLA outperforms other different algorithms by comparing the number of IGWs with a large margin and it placed 40% less IGWs and 80% gain of throughput. Furthermore the NGLA is easy to implement and could be employed for BWM.

Keywords: Wireless Mesh Network, Gateway Location Algorithm, Quality of Service, BWM

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Authors: Tariq Aljuneidi, Akif Asil Bulgak

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Remanufacturing may be defined as the process of bringing used products to “like-new” functional state with warranty to match, and it is one of the most popular product end-of-life scenarios. An efficient remanufacturing network lead to an efficient design of sustainable manufacturing enterprise. In remanufacturing network, products are collected from the customer zone, disassembled and remanufactured at a suitable remanufacturing facility. In this respect, another issue to consider is how the returned product to be remanufactured, in other words, what is the best layout for such facility. In order to achieve a sustainable manufacturing system, Cellular Manufacturing System (CMS) designs are highly recommended, CMSs combine high throughput rates of line layouts with the flexibility offered by functional layouts (job shop). Introducing the CMS while designing a remanufacturing network will benefit the utilization of such a network. This paper presents and analyzes a comprehensive mathematical model for the design of Dynamic Cellular Remanufacturing Systems (DCRSs). In this paper, the proposed model is the first one to date that consider CMS and remanufacturing system simultaneously. The proposed DCRS model considers several manufacturing attributes such as multi-period production planning, dynamic system reconfiguration, duplicate machines, machine capacity, available time for workers, worker assignments, and machine procurement, where the demand is totally satisfied from a returned product. A numerical example is presented to illustrate the proposed model.

Keywords: cellular manufacturing system, remanufacturing, mathematical programming, sustainability

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Authors: Weikang Peng

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The innovation corridor is an important spatial carrier to promote regional collaborative innovation, and its development process is the spatial re-organization process of regional innovation resources. This paper takes the Nanjing-Zhenjiang G312 Industrial Innovation Corridor, which involves seven municipal districts in Jiangsu Province, as empirical evidence. Based on multi-source spatial big data in 2010, 2016, and 2022, this paper applies triangulated irregular network (TIN), head/tail breaks, regional innovation ecosystem (RIE) niche fitness evaluation model, and social network analysis to carry out empirical research on the spatial organization and functional structural evolution characteristics of innovation corridors and their correlation with the structural evolution of collaborative innovation network. The results show, first, the development of innovation patches in the corridor has fractal characteristics in time and space and tends to be multi-center and cluster layout along the Nanjing Bypass Highway and National Highway G312. Second, there are large differences in the spatial distribution pattern of niche fitness in the corridor in various dimensions, and the niche fitness of innovation patches along the highway has increased significantly. Third, the scale of the collaborative innovation network in the corridor is expanding fast. The core of the network is shifting from the main urban area to the periphery of the city along the highway, with small-world and hierarchical levels, and the core-edge network structure is highlighted. With the development of the Innovation Corridor, the main collaborative mode in the corridor is changing from collaboration within innovation patches to collaboration between innovation patches, and innovation patches with high ecological suitability tend to be the active areas of collaborative innovation. Overall, polycentric spatial layout, graded functional structure, diversified innovation clusters, and differentiated environmental support play an important role in effectively constructing collaborative innovation linkages and the stable expansion of the scale of collaborative innovation within the innovation corridor.

Keywords: innovation corridor development, spatial structure, niche fitness evaluation model, head/tail breaks, innovation network

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Authors: Nidhi Gopal

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Routing is the process of moving a packet of data from source to destination and enables messages to pass from one computer to another and eventually reach the target machine. A router is a networking device that forwards data packets between computer networks. It is connected to two or more data lines from different networks (as opposed to a network switch, which connects data lines from one single network). This paper mainly emphasizes upon the study of router device, its top level architecture, and how various sub-modules of router i.e. Register, FIFO, FSM and Synchronizer are synthesized, and simulated and finally connected to its top module.

Keywords: data packets, networking, router, routing

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Authors: Lindani Mbatha, Suvendi Rimer, Mpho Gololo

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Image segmentation is the process of dividing an image into several sections, such as the object's background and the foreground. It is a critical technique in both image-processing tasks and computer vision. Most of the image segmentation algorithms have been developed for gray-scale images and little research and algorithms have been developed for the color images. Most image segmentation algorithms or techniques vary based on the input data and the application. Nearly all of the techniques are not suitable for noisy environments. Most of the work that has been done uses the Markov Random Field (MRF), which involves the computations and is said to be robust to noise. In the past recent years' image segmentation has been brought to tackle problems such as easy processing of an image, interpretation of the contents of an image, and easy analysing of an image. This article reviews and summarizes some of the image segmentation techniques and algorithms that have been developed in the past years. The techniques include neural networks (CNN), edge-based techniques, region growing, clustering, and thresholding techniques and so on. The advantages and disadvantages of medical ultrasound image segmentation techniques are also discussed. The article also addresses the applications and potential future developments that can be done around image segmentation. This review article concludes with the fact that no technique is perfectly suitable for the segmentation of all different types of images, but the use of hybrid techniques yields more accurate and efficient results.

Keywords: clustering-based, convolution-network, edge-based, region-growing

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Authors: Migael van Zyl, Stefanie Visser, Awelani Phaswana

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The electricity landscape in South Africa is characterized by frequent occurrences of loadshedding, a measure implemented by Eskom to manage electricity generation shortages by curtailing demand. Loadshedding, classified into stages ranging from 1 to 8 based on severity, involves the systematic rotation of power cuts across municipalities according to predefined schedules. However, this practice introduces distortions in recorded electricity demand, posing challenges to accurate forecasting essential for budgeting, network planning, and generation scheduling. Addressing this challenge requires the development of a methodology to quantify the impact of loadshedding and integrate it back into metered electricity demand data. Fortunately, comprehensive records of loadshedding impacts are maintained in a database, enabling the alignment of Loadshedding effects with hourly demand data. This adjustment ensures that forecasts accurately reflect true demand patterns, independent of loadshedding's influence, thereby enhancing the reliability of electricity supply management in South Africa. This paper presents a methodology for determining the hourly impact of load scheduling and subsequently adjusting historical demand data to account for it. Furthermore, two forecasting models are developed: one utilizing the original dataset and the other using the adjusted data. A comparative analysis is conducted to evaluate forecast accuracy improvements resulting from the adjustment process. By implementing this methodology, stakeholders can make more informed decisions regarding electricity infrastructure investments, resource allocation, and operational planning, contributing to the overall stability and efficiency of South Africa's electricity supply system.

Keywords: electricity demand forecasting, load shedding, demand side management, data science

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Authors: M. A. T. AlSudairi, T. G. K. Vasista

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The concept of social media is becoming the top of the agenda for many business executives and public sector executives today. Decision makers as well as consultants, try to identify ways in which firms and enterprises can make profitable use of social media and network related applications such as Wikipedia, Face book, YouTube, Google+, Twitter. While it is fun and useful to participating in this media and network for achieving the communication effectively and efficiently, semantic and sentiment analysis and interpretation becomes a crucial issue. So, the objective of this paper is to provide literature review on social media, network and related technology related to semantics and sentiment or opinion analysis covering business and governance perspectives. In this regard, a case study on the use and adoption of Social media in Saudi Arabia has been discussed. It is concluded that semantic web technology play a significant role in analyzing the social networks and social media content for extracting the interpretational knowledge towards strategic decision support.

Keywords: CRASP methodology, formative assessment, literature review, semantic web services, social media, social networks

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Authors: Shayla He

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Background and Purpose: According to Chamie (2017), it’s estimated that no less than 150 million people, or about 2 percent of the world’s population, are homeless. The homeless population in the United States has grown rapidly in the past four decades. In New York City, the sheltered homeless population has increased from 12,830 in 1983 to 62,679 in 2020. Knowing the trend on the homeless population is crucial at helping the states and the cities make affordable housing plans, and other community service plans ahead of time to better prepare for the situation. This study utilized the data from New York City, examined the key factors associated with the homelessness, and developed systematic modeling to predict homeless populations of the future. Using the best model developed, named HP-RNN, an analysis on the homeless population change during the months of 2020 and 2021, which were impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, was conducted. Moreover, HP-RNN was tested on the data from Seattle. Methods: The methodology involves four phases in developing robust prediction methods. Phase 1 gathered and analyzed raw data of homeless population and demographic conditions from five urban centers. Phase 2 identified the key factors that contribute to the rate of homelessness. In Phase 3, three models were built using Linear Regression, Random Forest, and Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), respectively, to predict the future trend of society's homeless population. Each model was trained and tuned based on the dataset from New York City for its accuracy measured by Mean Squared Error (MSE). In Phase 4, the final phase, the best model from Phase 3 was evaluated using the data from Seattle that was not part of the model training and tuning process in Phase 3. Results: Compared to the Linear Regression based model used by HUD et al (2019), HP-RNN significantly improved the prediction metrics of Coefficient of Determination (R2) from -11.73 to 0.88 and MSE by 99%. HP-RNN was then validated on the data from Seattle, WA, which showed a peak %error of 14.5% between the actual and the predicted count. Finally, the modeling results were collected to predict the trend during the COVID-19 pandemic. It shows a good correlation between the actual and the predicted homeless population, with the peak %error less than 8.6%. Conclusions and Implications: This work is the first work to apply RNN to model the time series of the homeless related data. The Model shows a close correlation between the actual and the predicted homeless population. There are two major implications of this result. First, the model can be used to predict the homeless population for the next several years, and the prediction can help the states and the cities plan ahead on affordable housing allocation and other community service to better prepare for the future. Moreover, this prediction can serve as a reference to policy makers and legislators as they seek to make changes that may impact the factors closely associated with the future homeless population trend.

Keywords: homeless, prediction, model, RNN

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Authors: Lidija R. Jevrić, Sanja O. Podunavac-Kuzmanović, Strahinja Z. Kovačević

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This study considers the selection of the most suitable in silico molecular descriptors that could be used for s-triazine pesticides characterization. Suitable descriptors among topological, geometrical and physicochemical are used for quantitative structure-retention relationships (QSRR) model establishment. Established models were obtained using linear regression (LR) and multiple linear regression (MLR) analysis. In this paper, MLR models were established avoiding multicollinearity among the selected molecular descriptors. Statistical quality of established models was evaluated by standard and cross-validation statistical parameters. For detection of similarity or dissimilarity among investigated s-triazine pesticides and their classification, principal component analysis (PCA) and hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA) were used and gave similar grouping. This study is financially supported by COST action TD1305.

Keywords: chemometrics, classification analysis, molecular descriptors, pesticides, regression analysis

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Authors: Avinash Malladhi

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Forensic accounting is a specialized field that involves the application of accounting principles, investigative skills, and legal knowledge to detect and prevent fraud. With the rise of big data and technological advancements, artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) algorithms have emerged as powerful tools for forensic accountants to enhance their fraud detection capabilities. In this paper, we review and analyze various AI/ML algorithms that are commonly used in forensic accounting, including supervised and unsupervised learning, deep learning, natural language processing Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs), Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs), Support Vector Machines (SVMs), Decision Trees, and Random Forests. We discuss their underlying principles, strengths, and limitations and provide empirical evidence from existing research studies demonstrating their effectiveness in detecting financial fraud. We also highlight potential ethical considerations and challenges associated with using AI/ML in forensic accounting. Furthermore, we highlight the benefits of these technologies in improving fraud detection and prevention in forensic accounting.

Keywords: AI, machine learning, forensic accounting & fraud detection, anti money laundering, Benford's law, fraud triangle theory

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Authors: Selvakumar Ulaganathan, Ivo Couckuyt, Francesco Ferranti, Tom Dhaene, Eric Laermans

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Variable-fidelity surrogate modelling offers an efficient way to approximate function data available in multiple degrees of accuracy each with varying computational cost. In this paper, a Kriging-based variable-fidelity surrogate modelling approach is introduced to approximate such deterministic data. Initially, individual Kriging surrogate models, which are enhanced with gradient data of different degrees of accuracy, are constructed. Then these Gradient enhanced Kriging surrogate models are strategically coupled using a recursive CoKriging formulation to provide an accurate surrogate model for the highest fidelity data. While, intuitively, gradient data is useful to enhance the accuracy of surrogate models, the primary motivation behind this work is to investigate if it is also worthwhile incorporating gradient data of varying degrees of accuracy.

Keywords: Kriging, CoKriging, Surrogate modelling, Variable- fidelity modelling, Gradients

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Authors: Donglan Zha, Jiansong Si

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Because of its flexibility, CES attracts much interest in economic growth and programming models, and the macroeconomics or micro-macro models. This paper focuses on the development, estimating methods of CES production function considering energy as an input. We leave for future research work of relaxing the assumption of constant returns to scale, the introduction of potential input factors, and the generalization method of the optimal nested form of multi-factor production functions.

Keywords: bias of technical change, CES production function, elasticity of substitution, energy input

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Authors: Puttharapong Sakulwaropas, Uraiwan Jaroengeratikun

Abstract:

Casualty insurance business, the optimal premium pricing and adequate cost for an insurance company are important in risk management. Normally, the insurance pure premium can be determined by multiplying the claim frequency with the claim cost. The aim of this research was to study in the application of generalized linear models to select the risk factor for model of claim frequency and claim cost for estimating a pure premium. In this study, the data set was the claim of comprehensive motor insurance, which was provided by one of the insurance company in Thailand. The results of this study found that the risk factors significantly related to pure premium at the 0.05 level consisted of no claim bonus (NCB) and used of the car (Car code).

Keywords: generalized linear models, risk factor, pure premium, regression model

Procedia PDF Downloads 466

Authors: Ksenia Meshkova

Abstract:

With increasing amount of multimedia data, it is very important to automate and speed up the process of obtaining meta. This process means not just recognition of some object or its movement, but recognition of the entire scene versus separate frames and having timeline segmentation as a final result. Labeling datasets is time consuming, besides, attributing characteristics to particular scenes is clearly difficult due to their nature. In this article, we will consider autoencoders application to unsupervised scene recognition and clusterization based on interpretable features. Further, we will focus on particular types of auto encoders that relevant to our study. We will take a look at the specificity of deep learning related to information theory and rate-distortion theory and describe the solutions empowering poor interpretability of deep learning in media content processing. As a conclusion, we will present the results of the work of custom framework, based on autoencoders, capable of scene recognition as was deeply studied above, with highlights generation resulted out of this recognition. We will not describe in detail the mathematical description of neural networks work but will clarify the necessary concepts and pay attention to important nuances.

Keywords: neural networks, computer vision, representation learning, autoencoders

Procedia PDF Downloads 128

Authors: S. Nasri, H. Bouziri

Abstract:

Disasters are quite experienced in our days. They are caused by floods, landslides, and building fires that is the main objective of this study. To cope with these unexpected events, precautions must be taken to protect human lives. The emphasis on disposal work focuses on the resolution of the evacuation problem in case of no-notice disaster. The problem of evacuation is listed as a dynamic network flow problem. Particularly, we model the evacuation problem as an earliest arrival flow problem with load dependent transit time. This problem is classified as NP-Hard. Our challenge here is to propose a metaheuristic solution for solving the evacuation problem. We define our objective as the maximization of evacuees during earliest periods of a time horizon T. The objective provides the evacuation of persons as soon as possible. We performed an experimental study on emergency evacuation from the tunisian children’s hospital. This work prompts us to look for evacuation plans corresponding to several situations where the network dynamically changes.

Keywords: dynamic network flow, load dependent transit time, evacuation strategy, earliest arrival flow problem, tabu search metaheuristic

Procedia PDF Downloads 373

Authors: Edlira Kalemi, Sule Yildirim-Yayilgan

Abstract:

Online Social Networks (OSNs) are nowadays being used widely and intensively for crime investigation and prevention activities. As they provide a lot of information they are used by the law enforcement and intelligence. An extensive review on existing solutions and models for collecting intelligence from this source of information and making use of it for solving crimes has been presented in this article. The main focus is on smart solutions and models where ontologies have been used as the main approach for representing criminal domain knowledge. A framework for a prototype ontology named SC-Ont will be described. This defines terms of the criminal domain ontology and the relations between them. The terms and the relations are extracted during both this review and the discussions carried out with domain experts. The development of SC-Ont is still ongoing work, where in this paper, we report mainly on the motivation for using smart ontology models and the possible benefits of using them for solving crimes.

Keywords: criminal digital evidence, social media, ontologies, reasoning

Procedia PDF Downloads 392

Authors: Hassan Jebreen

Abstract:

These models of a conservative pollutant in groundwater do not include representation of processes in soils and in the unsaturated zone, or biogeochemical processes in groundwater, These demonstration models can be used as the basis for more detailed simulations of the impacts of pollution sources at a local scale, but such studies should address processes related to specific pollutant species, and should consider local hydrogeology in more detail, particularly in relation to possible impacts on shallow systems which are likely to respond more quickly to changes in pollutant inputs. The results have demonstrated the interaction between groundwater flow fields and pollution sources in abstraction areas, and help to emphasise that wadi development is one of the key elements of water resources planning. The quality of groundwater in the Hebron area indicates a gradual increase in chloride and nitrate with time. Since the aquifers in Hebron districts are highly vulnerable due to their karstic nature, continued disposal of untreated domestic and industrial wastewater into the wadi will lead to unacceptably poor water quality in drinking water, which may ultimately require expensive treatment if significant health problems are to be avoided. Improvements are required in wastewater treatment at the municipal and domestic levels, the latter requiring increased public awareness of the issues, as well as improved understanding of the hydrogeological behaviour of the aquifers.

Keywords: groundwater, models, pollutants, wadis, hebron

Procedia PDF Downloads 441