Search results for: social and financial performance
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 22552

Search results for: social and financial performance

502 Examining the Independent Effects of Early Exposure to Game Consoles and Parent-Child Activities on Psychosocial Development

Authors: Rosa S. Wong, Keith T. S. Tung, Frederick K. Ho, Winnie W. Y. Tso, King-wa Fu, Nirmala Rao, Patrick Ip

Abstract:

As technology advances, exposures in early childhood are no longer confined to stimulations in the surrounding physical environments. Children nowadays are also subject to influences from the digital world. In particular, early access to game consoles can cause risks to child development, especially when the game is not developmentally appropriate for young children. Overstimulation is possible and could impair brain development. On the other hand, recreational parent-child activities, including outdoor activities and visits to museums, require child interaction with parents, which is beneficial for developing adaptive emotion regulation and social skills. Given the differences between these two types of exposures, this study investigated and compared the independent effects of early exposure to a game console and early play-based parent-child activities on children’s long-term psychosocial outcomes. This study used data from a subset of children (n=304, 142 male and 162 female) in the longitudinal cohort study, which studied the long-term impact of family socioeconomic status on child development. In 2012/13, we recruited a group of children at Kindergarten 3 (K3) randomly from Hong Kong local kindergartens and collected data regarding their duration of exposure to game console and recreational parent-child activities at that time. In 2018/19, we re-surveyed the parents of these children who were matriculated as Form 1 (F1) students (ages ranging from 11 to 13 years) in secondary schools and asked the parents to rate their children’s psychosocial problems in F1. Linear regressions were conducted to examine the associations between early exposures and adolescent psychosocial problems with and without adjustment for child gender and K3 family socioeconomic status. On average, K3 children spent about 42 minutes on a game console every day and had 2-3 recreational activities with their parents every week. Univariate analyses showed that more time spent on game consoles at K3 was associated with more psychosocial difficulties in F1 particularly more externalizing problems. The effect of early exposure to game console on externalizing behavior remained significant (B=0.59, 95%CI: 0.15 to 1.03, p=0.009) after adjusting for recreational parent-child activities and child gender. For recreational parent-child activities at K3, its effect on overall psychosocial difficulties became insignificant after adjusting for early exposure to game consoles and child gender. However, it was found to have significant protective effect on externalizing problems (B=-0.65, 95%CI: -1.23 to -0.07, p=0.028) even after adjusting for the confounders. Early exposure to game consoles has negative impact on children’s psychosocial health, whereas play-based parent-child activities can foster positive psychosocial outcomes. More efforts should be directed to propagate the risks and benefits of these activities and urge the parents and caregivers to replace child-alone screen time with parent-child play time in daily routine.

Keywords: early childhood, electronic device, parenting, psychosocial wellbeing

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501 Urban Growth and Its Impact on Natural Environment: A Geospatial Analysis of North Part of the UAE

Authors: Mohamed Bualhamam

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Due to the complex nature of tourism resources of the Northern part of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), the potential of Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and Remote Sensing (RS) in resolving these issues was used. The study was an attempt to use existing GIS data layers to identify sensitive natural environment and archaeological heritage resources that may be threatened by increased urban growth and give some specific recommendations to protect the area. By identifying sensitive natural environment and archaeological heritage resources, public agencies and citizens are in a better position to successfully protect important natural lands and direct growth away from environmentally sensitive areas. The paper concludes that applications of GIS and RS in study of urban growth impact in tourism resources are a strong and effective tool that can aid in tourism planning and decision-making. The study area is one of the fastest growing regions in the country. The increase in population along the region, as well as rapid growth of towns, has increased the threat to natural resources and archeological sites. Satellite remote sensing data have been proven useful in assessing the natural resources and in monitoring the changes. The study used GIS and RS to identify sensitive natural environment and archaeological heritage resources that may be threatened by increased urban growth. The result of GIS analyses shows that the Northern part of the UAE has variety for tourism resources, which can use for future tourism development. Rapid urban development in the form of small towns and different economic activities are showing in different places in the study area. The urban development extended out of old towns and have negative affected of sensitive tourism resources in some areas. Tourism resources for the Northern part of the UAE is a highly complex resources, and thus requires tools that aid in effective decision making to come to terms with the competing economic, social, and environmental demands of sustainable development. The UAE government should prepare a tourism databases and a GIS system, so that planners can be accessed for archaeological heritage information as part of development planning processes. Applications of GIS in urban planning, tourism and recreation planning illustrate that GIS is a strong and effective tool that can aid in tourism planning and decision- making. The power of GIS lies not only in the ability to visualize spatial relationships, but also beyond the space to a holistic view of the world with its many interconnected components and complex relationships. The worst of the damage could have been avoided by recognizing suitable limits and adhering to some simple environmental guidelines and standards will successfully develop tourism in sustainable manner. By identifying sensitive natural environment and archaeological heritage resources of the Northern part of the UAE, public agencies and private citizens are in a better position to successfully protect important natural lands and direct growth away from environmentally sensitive areas.

Keywords: GIS, natural environment, UAE, urban growth

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500 Upgrade of Value Chains and the Effect on Resilience of Russia’s Coal Industry and Receiving Regions on the Path of Energy Transition

Authors: Sergey Nikitenko, Vladimir Klishin, Yury Malakhov, Elena Goosen

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Transition to renewable energy sources (solar, wind, bioenergy, etc.) and launching of alternative energy generation has weakened the role of coal as a source of energy. The Paris Agreement and assumption of obligations by many nations to orderly reduce CO₂ emissions by means of technological modernization and climate change adaptation has abridged coal demand yet more. This paper aims to assess current resilience of the coal industry to stress and to define prospects for coal production optimization using high technologies pursuant to global challenges and requirements of energy transition. Our research is based on the resilience concept adapted to the coal industry. It is proposed to divide the coal sector into segments depending on the prevailing value chains (VC). Four representative models of VC are identified in the coal sector. The most promising lines of upgrading VC in the coal industry include: •Elongation of VC owing to introduction of clean technologies of coal conversion and utilization; •Creation of parallel VC by means of waste management; •Branching of VC (conversion of a company’s VC into a production network). The upgrade effectiveness is governed in many ways by applicability of advanced coal processing technologies, usability of waste, expandability of production, entrance to non-rival markets and localization of new segments of VC in receiving regions. It is also important that upgrade of VC by means of formation of agile high-tech inter-industry production networks within the framework of operating surface and underground mines can reduce social, economic and ecological risks associated with closure of coal mines. Such promising route of VC upgrade is application of methanotrophic bacteria to produce protein to be used as feed-stuff in fish, poultry and cattle breeding, or in production of ferments, lipoids, sterols, antioxidants, pigments and polysaccharides. Closed mines can use recovered methane as a clean energy source. There exist methods of methane utilization from uncontrollable sources, including preliminary treatment and recovery of methane from air-and-methane mixture, or decomposition of methane to hydrogen and acetylene. Separated hydrogen is used in hydrogen fuel cells to generate power to feed the process of methane utilization and to supply external consumers. Despite the recent paradigm of carbon-free energy generation, it is possible to preserve the coal mining industry using the differentiated approach to upgrade of value chains based on flexible technologies with regard to specificity of mining companies.

Keywords: resilience, resilience concept, resilience indicator, resilience in the Russian coal industry, value chains

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499 The Elimination of Fossil Fuel Subsidies from the Road Transportation Sector and the Promotion of Electro Mobility: The Ecuadorian Case

Authors: Henry Gonzalo Acurio Flores, Alvaro Nicolas Corral Naveda, Juan Francisco Fonseca Palacios

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In Ecuador, subventions on fossil fuels for the road transportation sector have always been part of its economy throughout time, mainly because of demagogy and populism from political leaders. It is clearly seen that the government cannot maintain the subsidies anymore due to its commercial balance and its general state budget; subsidies are a key barrier to implementing the use of cleaner technologies. However, during the last few months, the elimination of subsidies has been done gradually with the purpose of reaching international prices. It is expected that with this measure, the population will opt for other means of transportation, and in a certain way, it will promote the use of private electric vehicles and public, e.g., taxis and buses (urban transport). Considering the three main elements of sustainable development, an analysis of the social, economic, and environmental impacts of eliminating subsidies will be generated at the country level. To achieve this, four scenarios will be developed in order to determine how the subsidies will contribute to the promotion of electro-mobility. 1) A Business as Usual BAU scenario; 2) the introduction of 10 000 electric vehicles by 2025; 3) the introduction of 100 000 electric vehicles by 2030; 4) the introduction of 750 000 electric vehicles by 2040 (for all the scenarios buses, taxis, lightweight duty vehicles, and private vehicles will be introduced, as it is established in the National Electro Mobility Strategy for Ecuador). The Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) will be used, and it will be suitable to determine the cost for the government in terms of importing derivatives for fossil fuels and the cost of electricity to power the electric fleet that can be changed. The elimination of subventions generates fiscal resources for the state that can be used to develop other kinds of projects that will benefit Ecuadorian society. It will definitely change the energy matrix, and it will provide energy security for the country; it will be an opportunity for the government to incentivize a greater introduction of renewable energies, e.g., solar, wind, and geothermal. At the same time, it will also reduce greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) from the transportation sector, considering its mitigation potential, which as a result, will ameliorate the inhabitant quality of life by improving the quality of air, therefore reducing respiratory diseases associated with exhaust emissions, consequently, achieving sustainability, the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and complying with the agreements established in the Paris Agreement COP 21 in 2015. Electro mobility in Latin America and the Caribbean can only be achieved by the implementation of the right policies at the central government, which need to be accompanied by a National Urban Mobility Policy (NUMP) and can encompass a greater vision to develop holistic, sustainable transport systems at local governments.

Keywords: electro mobility, energy, policy, sustainable transportation

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498 Urban Open Source: Synthesis of a Citizen-Centric Framework to Design Densifying Cities

Authors: Shaurya Chauhan, Sagar Gupta

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Prominent urbanizing centres across the globe like Delhi, Dhaka, or Manila have exhibited that development often faces a challenge in bridging the gap among the top-down collective requirements of the city and the bottom-up individual aspirations of the ever-diversifying population. When this exclusion is intertwined with rapid urbanization and diversifying urban demography: unplanned sprawl, poor planning, and low-density development emerge as automated responses. In parallel, new ideas and methods of densification and public participation are being widely adopted as sustainable alternatives for the future of urban development. This research advocates a collaborative design method for future development: one that allows rapid application with its prototypical nature and an inclusive approach with mediation between the 'user' and the 'urban', purely with the use of empirical tools. Building upon the concepts and principles of 'open-sourcing' in design, the research establishes a design framework that serves the current user requirements while allowing for future citizen-driven modifications. This is synthesized as a 3-tiered model: user needs – design ideology – adaptive details. The research culminates into a context-responsive 'open source project development framework' (hereinafter, referred to as OSPDF) that can be used for on-ground field applications. To bring forward specifics, the research looks at a 300-acre redevelopment in the core of a rapidly urbanizing city as a case encompassing extreme physical, demographic, and economic diversity. The suggestive measures also integrate the region’s cultural identity and social character with the diverse citizen aspirations, using architecture and urban design tools, and references from recognized literature. This framework, based on a vision – feedback – execution loop, is used for hypothetical development at the five prevalent scales in design: master planning, urban design, architecture, tectonics, and modularity, in a chronological manner. At each of these scales, the possible approaches and avenues for open- sourcing are identified and validated, through hit-and-trial, and subsequently recorded. The research attempts to re-calibrate the architectural design process and make it more responsive and people-centric. Analytical tools such as Space, Event, and Movement by Bernard Tschumi and Five-Point Mental Map by Kevin Lynch, among others, are deep rooted in the research process. Over the five-part OSPDF, a two-part subsidiary process is also suggested after each cycle of application, for a continued appraisal and refinement of the framework and urban fabric with time. The research is an exploration – of the possibilities for an architect – to adopt the new role of a 'mediator' in development of the contemporary urbanity.

Keywords: open source, public participation, urbanization, urban development

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497 Seroprevalence of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-Cov) Infection among Healthy and High Risk Individuals in Qatar

Authors: Raham El-Kahlout, Hadi Yassin, Asmaa Athani, Marwan Abou Madi, Gheyath Nasrallah

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Background: Since its first isolation in September 2012, Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) has diffused across 27 countries infecting more than two thousand individuals with a high case fatality rate. MERS-CoV–specific antibodies are widely found in Dromedary camel along with viral shedding of similar viruses detected in human at same region, suggesting that MERS epidemiology may be central role by camel. Interestingly, MERS-CoV has also been also reported to be asymptomatic or to cause influenza-like mild illnesses. Therefore, in a country like Qatar (bordered Saudi Arabia), where camels are widely spread, serological surveys are important to explore the role of camels in MERS-CoV transmission. However, widespread strategic serological surveillances of MERS-CoV among populations, particularly in endemic country, are infrequent. In the absence of clear epidemiological view, cross-sectional MERS antibody surveillances in human populations are of global concern. Method: We performed a comparative serological screening of 4719 healthy blood donors, 135 baseline case contacts (high risk individual), and four MERS confirmed patients (by PCR) for the presence of anti-MERS IgG. Initially, samples were screened using Euroimmune anti- MERS-CoV IgG ELISA kit, the only commercial kit available in the market and recommended by the CDC as a screening kit. To confirm ELISA test results, farther serological testing was performed for all borderline and positive samples using two assays; the anti MERS-CoV IgG and IgM Euroimmune indirect immunofluorescent test (IIFT) and pseudoviral particle neutralizing assay (PPNA). Additionally, to test cross reactivity of anti-MERS-CoV antibody with other family members of coronavirus, borderline and positive samples were tested for the presence of the of IgG antibody of the following viruses; SARS, HCoV-229E, HKU1 using the Euroimmune IIFT for SARS and HCoV-229E and ELISA for HKU1. Results: In all of 4858 screened 15 samples [10 donors (0.21%, 10/4719), 1 case contact (0.77 %, 1/130), 3 patients (75%, 3/4)] anti-MERS IgG reactive/borderline samples were seen in ELISA. However, only 7 (0.14%) of them gave positive with in IIFT and only 3 (0.06%) was confirmed by the specific anti-MERS PPNA. One of the interesting findings was, a donor, who was selected in the control group as a negative anti-MERS IgG ELISA, yield reactive for anti-MERS IgM IIFT and was confirmed with the PPNA. Further, our preliminary results showed that there was a strong cross reactivity between anti- MERS-COV IgG with both HCoV-229E or anti-HKU1 IgG, yet, no cross reactivity of SARS were found. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that MERS-CoV is not heavily circulated among the population of Qatar and this is also indicated by low number of confirmed cases (only 18) since 2012. Additionally, the presence of antibody of other pathogenic human coronavirus may cause false positive results of both ELISA and IIFT, which stress the need for more evaluation studies for the available serological assays. Conclusion: this study provides an insight about the epidemiological view for MERS-CoV in Qatar population. It also provides a performance evaluation for the available serologic tests for MERS-CoV in a view of serologic status to other human coronaviruses.

Keywords: seroprevalence, MERS-CoV, healthy individuals, Qatar

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496 Urban Design as a Tool in Disaster Resilience and Urban Hazard Mitigation: Case of Cochin, Kerala, India

Authors: Vinu Elias Jacob, Manoj Kumar Kini

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Disasters of all types are occurring more frequently and are becoming more costly than ever due to various manmade factors including climate change. A better utilisation of the concept of governance and management within disaster risk reduction is inevitable and of utmost importance. There is a need to explore the role of pre- and post-disaster public policies. The role of urban planning/design in shaping the opportunities of households, individuals and collectively the settlements for achieving recovery has to be explored. Governance strategies that can better support the integration of disaster risk reduction and management has to be examined. The main aim is to thereby build the resilience of individuals and communities and thus, the states too. Resilience is a term that is usually linked to the fields of disaster management and mitigation, but today has become an integral part of planning and design of cities. Disaster resilience broadly describes the ability of an individual or community to 'bounce back' from disaster impacts, through improved mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery. The growing population of the world has resulted in the inflow and use of resources, creating a pressure on the various natural systems and inequity in the distribution of resources. This makes cities vulnerable to multiple attacks by both natural and man-made disasters. Each urban area needs elaborate studies and study based strategies to proceed in the discussed direction. Cochin in Kerala is the fastest and largest growing city with a population of more than 26 lakhs. The main concern that has been looked into in this paper is making cities resilient by designing a framework of strategies based on urban design principles for an immediate response system especially focussing on the city of Cochin, Kerala, India. The paper discusses, understanding the spatial transformations due to disasters and the role of spatial planning in the context of significant disasters. The paper also aims in developing a model taking into consideration of various factors such as land use, open spaces, transportation networks, physical and social infrastructure, building design, and density and ecology that can be implemented in any city of any context. Guidelines are made for the smooth evacuation of people through hassle-free transport networks, protecting vulnerable areas in the city, providing adequate open spaces for shelters and gatherings, making available basic amenities to affected population within reachable distance, etc. by using the tool of urban design. Strategies at the city level and neighbourhood level have been developed with inferences from vulnerability analysis and case studies.

Keywords: disaster management, resilience, spatial planning, spatial transformations

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495 Unpacking the Spatial Outcomes of Public Transportation in a Developing Country Context: The Case of Johannesburg

Authors: Adedayo B. Adegbaju, Carel B. Schoeman, Ilse M. Schoeman

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The unique urban contexts that emanated from the apartheid history of South Africa informed the transport landscape of the City of Johannesburg. Apartheid‘s divisive spatial planning and land use management policies promoted sprawling and separated workers from job opportunities. This was further exacerbated by poor funding of public transport and road designs that encouraged the use of private cars. However, the democratization of the country in 1994 and the hosting of the 2010 FIFA World Cup provided a new impetus to the city’s public transport-oriented urban planning inputs. At the same time, the state’s new approach to policy formulations that entails the provision of public transport as one of the tools to end years of marginalization and inequalities soon began to largely reflect in planning decisions of other spheres of government. The Rea Vaya BRT and the Gautrain were respectively implemented by the municipal and provincial governments to demonstrate strong political will and commitment to the new policy direction. While the Gautrain was implemented to facilitate elite movement within Gauteng and to crowd investments and economic growths around station nodes, the BRT was provided for previously marginalized public transport users to provide a sustainable alternative to the dominant minibus taxi. The aim of this research is to evaluate the spatial impacts of the Gautrain and Rea Vaya BRT on the City of Johannesburg and to inform future outcomes by determining the existing potentials. By using the case study approach with a focus on the BRT and fast rail in a metropolitan context, the triangulation research method, which combines various data collection methods, was used to determine the research outcomes. The use of interviews, questionnaires, field observation, and databases such as REX, Quantec, StatsSA, GCRO observatory, national and provincial household travel surveys, and the quality of life surveys provided the basis for data collection. The research concludes that the Gautrain has demonstrated that viable alternatives to the private car can be provided, with its satisfactory feedbacks from users; while some of its station nodes (Sandton, Rosebank) have shown promises of transit-oriented development, one of the project‘s key objectives. The other stations have been unable to stimulate growth due to reasons like non-implementation of their urban design frameworks and lack of public sector investment required to attract private investors. The Rea Vaya BRT continues to be expanded in spite of both its inability to induce modal change and its low ridership figures. The research identifies factors like the low peak to base ratio, pricing, and the city‘s disjointed urban fabric as some of the reasons for its below-average performance. By drawing from the highlights and limitations, the study recommends that public transport provision should be institutionally integrated across and within spheres of government. Similarly, harmonization of the funding structure, better understanding of users’ needs, and travel patterns, underlined with continuity of policy direction and objectives, will equally promote optimal outcomes.

Keywords: bus rapid transit, Gautrain, Rea Vaya, sustainable transport, spatial and transport planning, transit oriented development

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494 Physiological Effects during Aerobatic Flights on Science Astronaut Candidates

Authors: Pedro Llanos, Diego García

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Spaceflight is considered the last frontier in terms of science, technology, and engineering. But it is also the next frontier in terms of human physiology and performance. After more than 200,000 years humans have evolved under earth’s gravity and atmospheric conditions, spaceflight poses environmental stresses for which human physiology is not adapted. Hypoxia, accelerations, and radiation are among such stressors, our research involves suborbital flights aiming to develop effective countermeasures in order to assure sustainable human space presence. The physiologic baseline of spaceflight participants is subject to great variability driven by age, gender, fitness, and metabolic reserve. The objective of the present study is to characterize different physiologic variables in a population of STEM practitioners during an aerobatic flight. Cardiovascular and pulmonary responses were determined in Science Astronaut Candidates (SACs) during unusual attitude aerobatic flight indoctrination. Physiologic data recordings from 20 subjects participating in high-G flight training were analyzed. These recordings were registered by wearable sensor-vest that monitored electrocardiographic tracings (ECGs), signs of dysrhythmias or other electric disturbances during all the flight. The same cardiovascular parameters were also collected approximately 10 min pre-flight, during each high-G/unusual attitude maneuver and 10 min after the flights. The ratio (pre-flight/in-flight/post-flight) of the cardiovascular responses was calculated for comparison of inter-individual differences. The resulting tracings depicting the cardiovascular responses of the subjects were compared against the G-loads (Gs) during the aerobatic flights to analyze cardiovascular variability aspects and fluid/pressure shifts due to the high Gs. In-flight ECG revealed cardiac variability patterns associated with rapid Gs onset in terms of reduced heart rate (HR) and some scattered dysrhythmic patterns (15% premature ventricular contractions-type) that were considered as triggered physiological responses to high-G/unusual attitude training and some were considered as instrument artifact. Variation events were observed in subjects during the +Gz and –Gz maneuvers and these may be due to preload and afterload, sudden shift. Our data reveal that aerobatic flight influenced the breathing rate of the subject, due in part by the various levels of energy expenditure due to the increased use of muscle work during these aerobatic maneuvers. Noteworthy was the high heterogeneity in the different physiological responses among a relatively small group of SACs exposed to similar aerobatic flights with similar Gs exposures. The cardiovascular responses clearly demonstrated that SACs were subjected to significant flight stress. Routine ECG monitoring during high-G/unusual attitude flight training is recommended to capture pathology underlying dangerous dysrhythmias in suborbital flight safety. More research is currently being conducted to further facilitate the development of robust medical screening, medical risk assessment approaches, and suborbital flight training in the context of the evolving commercial human suborbital spaceflight industry. A more mature and integrative medical assessment method is required to understand the physiology state and response variability among highly diverse populations of prospective suborbital flight participants.

Keywords: g force, aerobatic maneuvers, suborbital flight, hypoxia, commercial astronauts

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493 Consensual A-Monogamous Relationships: Challenges and Ways of Coping

Authors: Tal Braverman Uriel, Tal Litvak Hirsch

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Background and Objectives: Little or only partial emphasis has been placed on exploring the complexity of consensual non-monogamous relationships. The term "polyamory" refers to consensual non-monogamy, and it is defined as having emotional and/or sexual relations simultaneously with two or more people, the consent and knowledge of all the partners concerned. Managing multiple romantic relationships with different people evokes more emotions, leads to more emotional conflicts arising from different interests, and demands practical strategies. An individual's transition from a monogamous lifestyle to a consensual non-monogamous lifestyle yields new challenges, accompanied by stress, uncertainty, and question marks, as do other life-changing events, such as divorce or transition to parenthood. The study examines both the process of transition and adaptation to a consensually non-monogamous relationship, as well as the coping mechanism involved in the daily conduct of this lifestyle. The research focuses on understanding the consequences, challenges, and coping methods from a personal, marital, and familial point of view and focuses on 40 middle-aged individuals (20 men and 20 women ages 40-60). The research sheds light on a way of life that has not been previously studied in Israel and is still considered unacceptable. Theories of crisis (e.g., as Folkman and Lazarus) were applied, and as a result, a deeper understanding of the subject was reached, all while focusing on multiple aspects of dealing with stress. The basic research question examines the consequences of entering a polyamorous life from a personal point of view as an individual, partner, and parent and the ways of coping with these consequences. Method: The research is conducted with a narrative qualitative approach in the interpretive paradigm, including semi-structured in-depth interviews. The method of analysis is thematic. Results: The findings indicate that in most cases, an individual's motivation to open the relationship is mainly a longing for better sexuality and for an added layer of excitement to their lives. Most of the interviewees were assisted by their spouses in the process, as well as by social networks and podcasts on the subject. Some of them therapeutic professionals from the field are helpful. It also clearly emerged that among those who experienced acute emotional crises with the primary partner or painful separations from secondary partners, all believed polyamory to be the adequate way of life for them. Finally, a key resource for managing tension and stress is the ability to share and communicate with the primary partner. Conclusions: The study points to the challenges and benefits of a non-monogamous lifestyle as well as the use of coping mechanisms and resources that are consistent with the existing theory and research in the field in the context of life changes. The study indicates the need to expand the research canvas in the future in the context of parenting and the consequences for children.

Keywords: a-monogamy, consent, family, stress, tension

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492 Development of 3D Printed Natural Fiber Reinforced Composite Scaffolds for Maxillofacial Reconstruction

Authors: Sri Sai Ramya Bojedla, Falguni Pati

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Nature provides the best of solutions to humans. One such incredible gift to regenerative medicine is silk. The literature has publicized a long appreciation for silk owing to its incredible physical and biological assets. Its bioactive nature, unique mechanical strength, and processing flexibility make us curious to explore further to apply it in the clinics for the welfare of mankind. In this study, Antheraea mylitta and Bombyx mori silk fibroin microfibers are developed by two economical and straightforward steps via degumming and hydrolysis for the first time, and a bioactive composite is manufactured by mixing silk fibroin microfibers at various concentrations with polycaprolactone (PCL), a biocompatible, aliphatic semi-crystalline synthetic polymer. Reconstructive surgery in any part of the body except for the maxillofacial region deals with replacing its function. But answering both the aesthetics and function is of utmost importance when it comes to facial reconstruction as it plays a critical role in the psychological and social well-being of the patient. The main concern in developing adequate bone graft substitutes or a scaffold is the noteworthy variation in each patient's bone anatomy. Additionally, the anatomical shape and size will vary based on the type of defect. The advent of additive manufacturing (AM) or 3D printing techniques to bone tissue engineering has facilitated overcoming many of the restraints of conventional fabrication techniques. The acquired patient's CT data is converted into a stereolithographic (STL)-file which is further utilized by the 3D printer to create a 3D scaffold structure in an interconnected layer-by-layer fashion. This study aims to address the limitations of currently available materials and fabrication technologies and develop a customized biomaterial implant via 3D printing technology to reconstruct complex form, function, and aesthetics of the facial anatomy. These composite scaffolds underwent structural and mechanical characterization. Atomic force microscopic (AFM) and field emission scanning electron microscopic (FESEM) images showed the uniform dispersion of the silk fibroin microfibers in the PCL matrix. With the addition of silk, there is improvement in the compressive strength of the hybrid scaffolds. The scaffolds with Antheraea mylitta silk revealed higher compressive modulus than that of Bombyx mori silk. The above results of PCL-silk scaffolds strongly recommend their utilization in bone regenerative applications. Successful completion of this research will provide a great weapon in the maxillofacial reconstructive armamentarium.

Keywords: compressive modulus, 3d printing, maxillofacial reconstruction, natural fiber reinforced composites, silk fibroin microfibers

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491 Widely Diversified Macroeconomies in the Super-Long Run Casts a Doubt on Path-Independent Equilibrium Growth Model

Authors: Ichiro Takahashi

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One of the major assumptions of mainstream macroeconomics is the path independence of capital stock. This paper challenges this assumption by employing an agent-based approach. The simulation results showed the existence of multiple "quasi-steady state" equilibria of the capital stock, which may cast serious doubt on the validity of the assumption. The finding would give a better understanding of many phenomena that involve hysteresis, including the causes of poverty. The "market-clearing view" has been widely shared among major schools of macroeconomics. They understand that the capital stock, the labor force, and technology, determine the "full-employment" equilibrium growth path and demand/supply shocks can move the economy away from the path only temporarily: the dichotomy between the short-run business cycles and the long-run equilibrium path. The view then implicitly assumes the long-run capital stock to be independent of how the economy has evolved. In contrast, "Old Keynesians" have recognized fluctuations in output as arising largely from fluctuations in real aggregate demand. It will then be an interesting question to ask if an agent-based macroeconomic model, which is known to have path dependence, can generate multiple full-employment equilibrium trajectories of the capital stock in the super-long run. If the answer is yes, the equilibrium level of capital stock, an important supply-side factor, would no longer be independent of the business cycle phenomenon. This paper attempts to answer the above question by using the agent-based macroeconomic model developed by Takahashi and Okada (2010). The model would serve this purpose well because it has neither population growth nor technology progress. The objective of the paper is twofold: (1) to explore the causes of long-term business cycle, and (2) to examine the super-long behaviors of the capital stock of full-employment economies. (1) The simulated behaviors of the key macroeconomic variables such as output, employment, real wages showed widely diversified macro-economies. They were often remarkably stable but exhibited both short-term and long-term fluctuations. The long-term fluctuations occur through the following two adjustments: the quantity and relative cost adjustments of capital stock. The first one is obvious and assumed by many business cycle theorists. The reduced aggregate demand lowers prices, which raises real wages, thereby decreasing the relative cost of capital stock with respect to labor. (2) The long-term business cycles/fluctuations were synthesized with the hysteresis of real wages, interest rates, and investments. In particular, a sequence of the simulation runs with a super-long simulation period generated a wide range of perfectly stable paths, many of which achieved full employment: all the macroeconomic trajectories, including capital stock, output, and employment, were perfectly horizontal over 100,000 periods. Moreover, the full-employment level of capital stock was influenced by the history of unemployment, which was itself path-dependent. Thus, an experience of severe unemployment in the past kept the real wage low, which discouraged a relatively costly investment in capital stock. Meanwhile, a history of good performance sometimes brought about a low capital stock due to a high-interest rate that was consistent with a strong investment.

Keywords: agent-based macroeconomic model, business cycle, hysteresis, stability

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490 Operation '1 Household Dry Toilet for Planting 20 Fruit Trees and/or Acacias on Cropland': Strategy for Promoting Adoption of Well-Managed Agroforestry Systems and Prevent Streaming and Soil Erosion

Authors: Stanis Koko Nyalongomo, Benjamin Mputela Bankanza, Moise Kisempa Mahungudi

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Several areas in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) experience serious problems of streaming and soil erosion. Erosion leads to degradation of soil health, and the three main causative factors of similar importance are deforestation, overgrazing, and land agricultural mismanagement. Degradation of soil health leads to a decrease in agricultural productivity and carbon dioxide (CO₂), and other greenhouse gas emissions. Agricultural productivity low, and sanitation-related diseases are a concern of a majority of DRC rural people -whose main livelihoods are conventional smallholder agriculture- due to degradation of agricultural soil health and prevalence of inappropriate sanitation in rural areas. Land management practices that increase soil carbon stocks on agricultural lands with practices including conservation agriculture and agroforestry do not only limit CO₂ emissions but also help prevent erosion while enhancing soil health and productivity. Promotion to adopt sustainable land management practices, especially conversion to well-managed agroforestry practices, is a necessity. This needs to be accompanied by incentives. Methods that incite smallholders to adopt practices that increase carbon stocks in agricultural lands and enhance soil health and productivity for social, economic, and environmental benefits, and give them the ability to get and use household dry toilets -included activities to inform and raise smallholder households awareness on the conversion of croplands to well-managed agroforestry systems through planting at least 20 fruit trees and/or acacias, soil carbon and practices that sequester it in soil and ecological sanitation; and offer smallholders technique and material supports and incentives under the form of dry toilets constructed for free for well-managed agroforestry implementation- were carried out to address problems of soil erosion as well as agricultural productivity and sanitation-related diseases. In 2018 and 2019, 19 of 23 targeted smallholder households expressed their satisfaction and converted their croplands to agroforestry through planting 374 trees, and each gotten 1 dry toilet constructed for free. Their neighbors expressed a willingness to participate in the project. Conversion to well-managed agroforestry practices offers many advantages to both farmers and the environment. The strategy of offering smallholders incentives for soil-friendly agricultural practices, especially well-managed agroforestry, is one of the solutions to prevent soil erosion. DRC rural people whose majority are smallholder households, need to be able to get and use dry toilets. So, dry toilets could be offered like incentives for well-managed agroforestry practices. Given the many advantages agroforestry and dry toilet can offer, recommendations are made for funding organizations to support such projects that promote the adoption of soil health practices.

Keywords: agroforestry, croplands, soil carbon, soil health

Procedia PDF Downloads 104
489 Wind Turbine Scaling for the Investigation of Vortex Shedding and Wake Interactions

Authors: Sarah Fitzpatrick, Hossein Zare-Behtash, Konstantinos Kontis

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Traditionally, the focus of horizontal axis wind turbine (HAWT) blade aerodynamic optimisation studies has been the outer working region of the blade. However, recent works seek to better understand, and thus improve upon, the performance of the inboard blade region to enhance power production, maximise load reduction and better control the wake behaviour. This paper presents the design considerations and characterisation of a wind turbine wind tunnel model devised to further the understanding and fundamental definition of horizontal axis wind turbine root vortex shedding and interactions. Additionally, the application of passive and active flow control mechanisms – vortex generators and plasma actuators – to allow for the manipulation and mitigation of unsteady aerodynamic behaviour at the blade inboard section is investigated. A static, modular blade wind turbine model has been developed for use in the University of Glasgow’s de Havilland closed return, low-speed wind tunnel. The model components - which comprise of a half span blade, hub, nacelle and tower - are scaled using the equivalent full span radius, R, for appropriate Mach and Strouhal numbers, and to achieve a Reynolds number in the range of 1.7x105 to 5.1x105 for operational speeds up to 55m/s. The half blade is constructed to be modular and fully dielectric, allowing for the integration of flow control mechanisms with a focus on plasma actuators. Investigations of root vortex shedding and the subsequent wake characteristics using qualitative – smoke visualisation, tufts and china clay flow – and quantitative methods – including particle image velocimetry (PIV), hot wire anemometry (HWA), and laser Doppler anemometry (LDA) – were conducted over a range of blade pitch angles 0 to 15 degrees, and Reynolds numbers. This allowed for the identification of shed vortical structures from the maximum chord position, the transitional region where the blade aerofoil blends into a cylindrical joint, and the blade nacelle connection. Analysis of the trailing vorticity interactions between the wake core and freestream shows the vortex meander and diffusion is notably affected by the Reynold’s number. It is hypothesized that the shed vorticity from the blade root region directly influences and exacerbates the nacelle wake expansion in the downstream direction. As the design of inboard blade region form is, by necessity, driven by function rather than aerodynamic optimisation, a study is undertaken for the application of flow control mechanisms to manipulate the observed vortex phenomenon. The designed model allows for the effective investigation of shed vorticity and wake interactions with a focus on the accurate geometry of a root region which is representative of small to medium power commercial HAWTs. The studies undertaken allow for an enhanced understanding of the interplay of shed vortices and their subsequent effect in the near and far wake. This highlights areas of interest within the inboard blade area for the potential use of passive and active flow control devices which contrive to produce a more desirable wake quality in this region.

Keywords: vortex shedding, wake interactions, wind tunnel model, wind turbine

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488 Pueblos Mágicos in Mexico: The Loss of Intangible Cultural Heritage and Cultural Tourism

Authors: Claudia Rodriguez-Espinosa, Erika Elizabeth Pérez Múzquiz

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Since the creation of the “Pueblos Mágicos” program in 2001, a series of social and cultural events had directly affected the heritage conservation of the 121 registered localities until 2018, when the federal government terminated the program. Many studies have been carried out that seek to analyze from different perspectives and disciplines the consequences that these appointments have generated in the “Pueblos Mágicos.” Multidisciplinary groups such as the one headed by Carmen Valverde and Liliana López Levi, have brought together specialists from all over the Mexican Republic to create a set of diagnoses of most of these settlements, and although each one has unique specificities, there is a constant in most of them that has to do with the loss of cultural heritage and that is related to transculturality. There are several factors identified that have fostered a cultural loss, as a direct reflection of the economic crisis that prevails in Mexico. It is important to remember that the origin of this program had as its main objective to promote the growth and development of local economies since one of the conditions for entering the program is that they have less than 20,000 inhabitants. With this goal in mind, one of the first actions that many “Pueblos Mágicos” carried out was to improve or create an infrastructure to receive both national and foreign tourists since this was practically non-existent. Creating hotels, restaurants, cafes, training certified tour guides, among other actions, have led to one of the great problems they face: globalization. Although by itself it is not bad, its impact in many cases has been negative for heritage conservation. The entry into and contact with new cultures has led to the undervaluation of cultural traditions, their transformation and even their total loss. This work seeks to present specific cases of transformation and loss of cultural heritage, as well as to reflect on the problem and propose scenarios in which the negative effects can be reversed. For this text, 36 “Pueblos Mágicos” have been selected for study, based on those settlements that are cited in volumes I and IV (the first and last of the collection) of the series produced by the multidisciplinary group led by Carmen Valverde and Liliana López Levi (researchers from UNAM and UAM Xochimilco respectively) in the project supported by CONACyT entitled “Pueblos Mágicos. An interdisciplinary vision”, of which we are part. This sample is considered representative since it forms 30% of the total of 121 “Pueblos Mágicos” existing at that moment. With this information, the elements of its intangible heritage loss or transformation have been identified in every chapter based on the texts written by the participants of that project. Finally, this text shows an analysis of the effects that this federal program, as a public policy applied to 132 populations, has had on the conservation or transformation of the intangible cultural heritage of the “Pueblos Mágicos.” Transculturality, globalization, the creation of identities and the desire to increase the flow of tourists have impacted the changes that traditions (main intangible cultural heritage) have had in the 18 years that the federal program lasted.

Keywords: public policies, cultural tourism, heritage preservation, pueblos mágicos program

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487 From Modelled Design to Reality through Material and Machinery Lab and Field Tests: Porous Concrete Carparks at the Wanda Metropolitano Stadium in Madrid

Authors: Manuel de Pazos-Liano, Manuel Cifuentes-Antonio, Juan Fisac-Gozalo, Sara Perales-Momparler, Carlos Martinez-Montero

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The first-ever game in the Wanda Metropolitano Stadium, the new home of the Club Atletico de Madrid, was played on September 16, 2017, thanks to the work of a multidisciplinary team that made it possible to combine urban development with sustainability goals. The new football ground sits on a 1.2 km² land owned by the city of Madrid. Its construction has dramatically increased the sealed area of the site (transforming the runoff coefficient from 0.35 to 0.9), and the surrounding sewer network has no capacity for that extra flow. As an alternative to enlarge the existing 2.5 m diameter pipes, it was decided to detain runoff on site by means of an integrated and durable infrastructure that would not blow up the construction cost nor represent a burden on the municipality’s maintenance tasks. Instead of the more conventional option of building a large concrete detention tank, the decision was taken on the use of pervious pavement on the 3013 car parking spaces for sub-surface water storage, a solution aligned with the city water ordinance and the Madrid + Natural project. Making the idea a reality, in only five months and during the summer season (which forced to pour the porous concrete only overnight), was a challenge never faced before in Spain, that required of innovation both at the material as well as the machinery side. The process consisted on: a) defining the characteristics required for the porous concrete (compressive strength of 15 N/mm2 and 20% voids); b) testing of different porous concrete dosages at the construction company laboratory; c) stablishing the cross section in order to provide structural strength and sufficient water detention capacity (20 cm porous concrete over a 5 cm 5/10 gravel, that sits on a 50 cm coarse 40/50 aggregate sub-base separated by a virgin fiber polypropylene geotextile fabric); d) hydraulic computer modelling (using the Full Hydrograph Method based on the Wallingford Procedure) to estimate design peak flows decrease (an average of 69% at the three car parking lots); e) use of a variety of machinery for the application of the porous concrete to achieve both structural strength and permeable surface (including an inverse rotating rolling imported from USA, and the so-called CMI, a sliding concrete paver used in the construction of motorways with rigid pavements); f) full-scale pilots and final construction testing by an accredited laboratory (pavement compressive strength average value of 15 N/mm2 and 0,0032 m/s permeability). The continuous testing and innovating construction process explained in detail within this article, allowed for a growing performance with time, finally proving the use of the CMI valid also for large porous car park applications. All this process resulted in a successful story that converts the Wanda Metropolitano Stadium into a great demonstration site that will help the application of the Spanish Royal Decree 638/2016 (it also counts with rainwater harvesting for grass irrigation).

Keywords: construction machinery, permeable carpark, porous concrete, SUDS, sustainable develpoment

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486 A Correlations Study on Nursing Staff's Shifts Systems, Workplace Fatigue, and Quality of Working Life

Authors: Jui Chen Wu, Ming Yi Hsu

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Background and Purpose: Shift work of nursing staff is inevitable in hospital to provide continuing medical care. However, shift work is considered as a health hazard that may cause physical and psychological problems. Serious workplace fatigue of nursing shift work might impact on family, social and work life, moreover, causes serious reduction of quality of medical care, or even malpractice. This study aims to explore relationships among nursing staff’s shift, workplace fatigue and quality of working life. Method: Structured questionnaires were used in this study to explore relationships among shift work, workplace fatigue and quality of working life in nursing staffs. We recruited 590 nursing staffs in different Community Teaching hospitals in Taiwan. Data analysed by descriptive statistics, single sample t-test, single factor analysis, Pearson correlation coefficient and hierarchical regression, etc. Results: The overall workplace fatigue score is 50.59 points. In further analysis, the score of personal burnout, work-related burnout, over-commitment and client-related burnout are 57.86, 53.83, 45.95 and 44.71. The basic attributes of nursing staff are significantly different from those of workplace fatigue with different ages, licenses, sleeping quality, self-conscious health status, number of care patients of chronic diseases and number of care people in the obstetric ward. The shift variables revealed no significant influence on workplace fatigue during the hierarchical regression analysis. About the analysis on nursing staff’s basic attributes and shift on the quality of working life, descriptive results show that the overall quality of working life of nursing staff is 3.23 points. Comparing the average score of the six aspects, the ranked average score are 3.47 (SD= .43) in interrelationship, 3.40 (SD= .46) in self-actualisation, 3.30 (SD= .40) in self-efficacy, 3.15 (SD= .38) in vocational concept, 3.07 (SD= .37) in work aspects, and 3.02 (SD= .56) in organization aspects. The basic attributes of nursing staff are significantly different from quality of working life in different marriage situations, education level, years of nursing work, occupation area, sleep quality, self-conscious health status and number of care in medical ward. There are significant differences between shift mode and shift rate with the quality of working life. The results of the hierarchical regression analysis reveal that one of the shifts variables 'shift mode' which does affect staff’s quality of working life. The workplace fatigue is negatively correlated with the quality of working life, and the over-commitment in the workplace fatigue is positively related to the vocational concept of the quality of working life. According to the regression analysis of nursing staff’s basic attributes, shift mode, workplace fatigue and quality of working life related shift, the results show that the workplace fatigue has a significant impact on nursing staff’s quality of working life. Conclusion: According to our study, shift work is correlated with workplace fatigue in nursing staffs. This results work as important reference for human resources management in hospitals to establishing a more positive and healthy work arrangement policy.

Keywords: nursing staff, shift, workplace fatigue, quality of working life

Procedia PDF Downloads 250
485 Medical Workforce Knowledge of Adrenaline (Epinephrine) Administration in Anaphylaxis in Adults Considerably Improved with Training in an UK Hospital from 2010 to 2017

Authors: Jan C. Droste, Justine Burns, Nithin Narayan

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Introduction: Life-threatening detrimental effects of inappropriate adrenaline (epinephrine) administration, e.g., by giving the wrong dose, in the context of anaphylaxis management is well documented in the medical literature. Half of the fatal anaphylactic reactions in the UK are iatrogenic, and the median time to a cardio-respiratory arrest can be as short as 5 minutes. It is therefore imperative that hospital doctors of all grades have active and accurate knowledge of the correct route, site, and dosage of administration of adrenaline. Given this time constraint and the potential fatal outcome with inappropriate management of anaphylaxis, it is alarming that surveys over the last 15 years have repeatedly shown only a minority of doctors to have accurate knowledge of adrenaline administration as recommended by the UK Resuscitation Council guidelines (2008 updated 2012). This comparison of survey results of the medical workforce over several years in a small NHS District General Hospital was conducted in order to establish the effect of the employment of multiple educational methods regarding adrenaline administration in anaphylaxis in adults. Methods: Between 2010 and 2017, several education methods and tools were used to repeatedly inform the medical workforce (doctors and advanced clinical practitioners) in a single district general hospital regarding the treatment of anaphylaxis in adults. Whilst the senior staff remained largely the same cohort, junior staff had changed fully in every survey. Examples included: (i) Formal teaching -in Grand Rounds; during the junior doctors’ induction process; advanced life support courses (ii) In-situ simulation training performed by the clinical skills simulation team –several ad hoc sessions and one 3-day event in 2017 visiting 16 separate clinical areas performing an acute anaphylaxis scenario using actors- around 100 individuals from multi-disciplinary teams were involved (iii) Hospital-wide distribution of the simulation event via the Trust’s Simulation Newsletter (iv) Laminated algorithms were attached to the 'crash trolleys' (v) A short email 'alert' was sent to all medical staff 3 weeks prior to the survey detailing the emergency treatment of anaphylaxis (vi) In addition, the performance of the surveys themselves represented a teaching opportunity when gaps in knowledge could be addressed. Face to face surveys were carried out in 2010 ('pre-intervention), 2015, and 2017, in the latter two occasions including advanced clinical practitioners (ACP). All surveys consisted of convenience samples. If verbal consent to conduct the survey was obtained, the medical practitioners' answers were recorded immediately on a data collection sheet. Results: There was a sustained improvement in the knowledge of the medical workforce from 2010 to 2017: Answers improved regarding correct drug by 11% (84%, 95%, and 95%); the correct route by 20% (76%, 90%, and 96%); correct site by 40% (43%, 83%, and 83%) and the correct dose by 45% (27%, 54%, and 72%). Overall, knowledge of all components -correct drug, route, site, and dose-improved from 13% in 2010 to 62% in 2017. Conclusion: This survey comparison shows knowledge of the medical workforce regarding adrenaline administration for treatment of anaphylaxis in adults can be considerably improved by employing a variety of educational methods.

Keywords: adrenaline, anaphylaxis, epinephrine, medical education, patient safety

Procedia PDF Downloads 109
484 Religiosity and Involvement in Purchasing Convenience Foods: Using Two-Step Cluster Analysis to Identify Heterogenous Muslim Consumers in the UK

Authors: Aisha Ijaz

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The paper focuses on the impact of Muslim religiosity on convenience food purchases and involvement experienced in a non-Muslim culture. There is a scarcity of research on the purchasing patterns of Muslim diaspora communities residing in risk societies, particularly in contexts where there is an increasing inclination toward industrialized food items alongside a renewed interest in the concept of natural foods. The United Kingdom serves as an appropriate setting for this study due to the increasing Muslim population in the country, paralleled by the expanding Halal Food Market. A multi-dimensional framework is proposed, testing for five forms of involvement, specifically Purchase Decision Involvement, Product Involvement, Behavioural Involvement, Intrinsic Risk and Extrinsic Risk. Quantitative cross-sectional consumer data were collected through a face-to-face survey contact method with 141 Muslims during the summer of 2020 in Liverpool located in the Northwest of England. proportion formula was utilitsed, and the population of interest was stratified by gender and age before recruitment took place through local mosques and community centers. Six input variables were used (intrinsic religiosity and involvement dimensions), dividing the sample into 4 clusters using the Two-Step Cluster Analysis procedure in SPSS. Nuanced variances were observed in the type of involvement experienced by religiosity group, which influences behaviour when purchasing convenience food. Four distinct market segments were identified: highly religious ego-involving (39.7%), less religious active (26.2%), highly religious unaware (16.3%), less religious concerned (17.7%). These segments differ significantly with respects to their involvement, behavioural variables (place of purchase and information sources used), socio-cultural (acculturation and social class), and individual characteristics. Choosing the appropriate convenience food is centrally related to the value system of highly religious ego-involving first-generation Muslims, which explains their preference for shopping at ethnic food stores. Less religious active consumers are older and highly alert in information processing to make the optimal food choice, relying heavily on product label sources. Highly religious unaware Muslims are less dietary acculturated to the UK diet and tend to rely on digital and expert advice sources. The less-religious concerned segment, who are typified by younger age and third generation, are engaged with the purchase process because they are worried about making unsuitable food choices. Research implications are outlined and potential avenues for further explorations are identified.

Keywords: consumer behaviour, consumption, convenience food, religion, muslims, UK

Procedia PDF Downloads 34
483 Technological Transference Tools to Diffuse Low-Cost Earthquake Resistant Construction with Adobe in Rural Areas of the Peruvian Andes

Authors: Marcial Blondet, Malena Serrano, Álvaro Rubiños, Elin Mattsson

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In Peru, there are more than two million houses made of adobe (sun dried mud bricks) or rammed earth (35% of the total houses), in which almost 9 million people live, mainly because they cannot afford to purchase industrialized construction materials. Although adobe houses are cheap to build and thermally comfortable, their seismic performance is very poor, and they usually suffer significant damage or collapse with tragic loss of life. Therefore, over the years, researchers at the Pontifical Catholic University of Peru and other institutions have developed many reinforcement techniques as an effort to improve the structural safety of earthen houses located in seismic areas. However, most rural communities live under unacceptable seismic risk conditions because these techniques have not been adopted massively, mainly due to high cost and lack of diffusion. The nylon rope mesh reinforcement technique is simple and low-cost, and two technological transference tools have been developed to diffuse it among rural communities: 1) Scale seismic simulations using a portable shaking table have been designed to prove its effectiveness to protect adobe houses; 2) A step-by-step illustrated construction manual has been developed to guide the complete building process of a nylon rope mesh reinforced adobe house. As a study case, it was selected the district of Pullo: a small rural community in the Peruvian Andes where more than 80% of its inhabitants live in adobe houses and more than 60% are considered to live in poverty or extreme poverty conditions. The research team carried out a one-day workshop in May 2015 and a two-day workshop in September 2015. Results were positive: First, the nylon rope mesh reinforcement procedure was proven simple enough to be replicated by adults, both young and seniors, and participants handled ropes and knots easily as they use them for daily livestock activity. In addition, nylon ropes were proven highly available in the study area as they were found at two local stores in variety of color and size.. Second, the portable shaking table demonstration successfully showed the effectiveness of the nylon rope mesh reinforcement and generated interest on learning about it. On the first workshop, more than 70% of the participants were willing to formally subscribe and sign up for practical training lessons. On the second workshop, more than 80% of the participants returned the second day to receive introductory practical training. Third, community members found illustrations on the construction manual simple and friendly but the roof system illustrations led to misinterpretation so they were improved. The technological transfer tools developed in this project can be used to train rural dwellers on earthquake-resistant self-construction with adobe, which is still very common in the Peruvian Andes. This approach would allow community members to develop skills and capacities to improve safety of their households on their own, thus, mitigating their high seismic risk and preventing tragic losses. Furthermore, proper training in earthquake-resistant self-construction with adobe would prevent rural dwellers from depending on external aid after an earthquake and become agents of their own development.

Keywords: adobe, Peruvian Andes, safe housing, technological transference

Procedia PDF Downloads 277
482 A Fermatean Fuzzy MAIRCA Approach for Maintenance Strategy Selection of Process Plant Gearbox Using Sustainability Criteria

Authors: Soumava Boral, Sanjay K. Chaturvedi, Ian Howard, Kristoffer McKee, V. N. A. Naikan

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Due to strict regulations from government to enhance the possibilities of sustainability practices in industries, and noting the advances in sustainable manufacturing practices, it is necessary that the associated processes are also sustainable. Maintenance of large scale and complex machines is a pivotal task to maintain the uninterrupted flow of manufacturing processes. Appropriate maintenance practices can prolong the lifetime of machines, and prevent associated breakdowns, which subsequently reduces different cost heads. Selection of the best maintenance strategies for such machines are considered as a burdensome task, as they require the consideration of multiple technical criteria, complex mathematical calculations, previous fault data, maintenance records, etc. In the era of the fourth industrial revolution, organizations are rapidly changing their way of business, and they are giving their utmost importance to sensor technologies, artificial intelligence, data analytics, automations, etc. In this work, the effectiveness of several maintenance strategies (e.g., preventive, failure-based, reliability centered, condition based, total productive maintenance, etc.) related to a large scale and complex gearbox, operating in a steel processing plant is evaluated in terms of economic, social, environmental and technical criteria. As it is not possible to obtain/describe some criteria by exact numerical values, these criteria are evaluated linguistically by cross-functional experts. Fuzzy sets are potential soft-computing technique, which has been useful to deal with linguistic data and to provide inferences in many complex situations. To prioritize different maintenance practices based on the identified sustainable criteria, multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) approaches can be considered as potential tools. Multi-Attributive Ideal Real Comparative Analysis (MAIRCA) is a recent addition in the MCDM family and has proven its superiority over some well-known MCDM approaches, like TOPSIS (Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution) and ELECTRE (ELimination Et Choix Traduisant la REalité). It has a simple but robust mathematical approach, which is easy to comprehend. On the other side, due to some inherent drawbacks of Intuitionistic Fuzzy Sets (IFS) and Pythagorean Fuzzy Sets (PFS), recently, the use of Fermatean Fuzzy Sets (FFSs) has been proposed. In this work, we propose the novel concept of FF-MAIRCA. We obtain the weights of the criteria by experts’ evaluation and use them to prioritize the different maintenance practices according to their suitability by FF-MAIRCA approach. Finally, a sensitivity analysis is carried out to highlight the robustness of the approach.

Keywords: Fermatean fuzzy sets, Fermatean fuzzy MAIRCA, maintenance strategy selection, sustainable manufacturing, MCDM

Procedia PDF Downloads 125
481 Probability Modeling and Genetic Algorithms in Small Wind Turbine Design Optimization: Mentored Interdisciplinary Undergraduate Research at LaGuardia Community College

Authors: Marina Nechayeva, Malgorzata Marciniak, Vladimir Przhebelskiy, A. Dragutan, S. Lamichhane, S. Oikawa

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This presentation is a progress report on a faculty-student research collaboration at CUNY LaGuardia Community College (LaGCC) aimed at designing a small horizontal axis wind turbine optimized for the wind patterns on the roof of our campus. Our project combines statistical and engineering research. Our wind modeling protocol is based upon a recent wind study by a faculty-student research group at MIT, and some of our blade design methods are adopted from a senior engineering project at CUNY City College. Our use of genetic algorithms has been inspired by the work on small wind turbines’ design by David Wood. We combine these diverse approaches in our interdisciplinary project in a way that has not been done before and improve upon certain techniques used by our predecessors. We employ several estimation methods to determine the best fitting parametric probability distribution model for the local wind speed data obtained through correlating short-term on-site measurements with a long-term time series at the nearby airport. The model serves as a foundation for engineering research that focuses on adapting and implementing genetic algorithms (GAs) to engineering optimization of the wind turbine design using Blade Element Momentum Theory. GAs are used to create new airfoils with desirable aerodynamic specifications. Small scale models of best performing designs are 3D printed and tested in the wind tunnel to verify the accuracy of relevant calculations. Genetic algorithms are applied to selected airfoils to determine the blade design (radial cord and pitch distribution) that would optimize the coefficient of power profile of the turbine. Our approach improves upon the traditional blade design methods in that it lets us dispense with assumptions necessary to simplify the system of Blade Element Momentum Theory equations, thus resulting in more accurate aerodynamic performance calculations. Furthermore, it enables us to design blades optimized for a whole range of wind speeds rather than a single value. Lastly, we improve upon known GA-based methods in that our algorithms are constructed to work with XFoil generated airfoils data which enables us to optimize blades using our own high glide ratio airfoil designs, without having to rely upon available empirical data from existing airfoils, such as NACA series. Beyond its immediate goal, this ongoing project serves as a training and selection platform for CUNY Research Scholars Program (CRSP) through its annual Aerodynamics and Wind Energy Research Seminar (AWERS), an undergraduate summer research boot camp, designed to introduce prospective researchers to the relevant theoretical background and methodology, get them up to speed with the current state of our research, and test their abilities and commitment to the program. Furthermore, several aspects of the research (e.g., writing code for 3D printing of airfoils) are adapted in the form of classroom research activities to enhance Calculus sequence instruction at LaGCC.

Keywords: engineering design optimization, genetic algorithms, horizontal axis wind turbine, wind modeling

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480 The Effects of Heavy Metal and Aromatic Hydrocarbon Pollution on Bees

Authors: Katarzyna Zięba, Hajnalka Szentgyörgyi, Paweł Miśkowiec, Agnieszka Moos-Matysik

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Bees are effective pollinators of plants using by humans. However, there is a concern about the fate different species due to their recently decline. Pollution of the environment is described in the literature as one of the causes of this phenomenon. Due to human activities, heavy metals and aromatic hydrocarbons can occur in bee organisms in high concentrations. The presented study aims to provide information on how pollution affects bee quality, taking into account, also the biological differences between various groups of bees. Understanding the consequences of environmental pollution on bees can help to create and promote bee friendly habitats and actions. The analyses were carried out using two contamination gradients with 5 sites on each. The first, mainly heavy metal polluted gradient is stretching approx. 30km from the Bukowno Zinc smelter near Olkusz in the Lesser Poland Voivodship, to the north. The second cuts through the agglomeration of Kraków up to the southern borders of the Ojców National Park. The gradient near Olkusz is a well-described pollution gradient contaminated mainly by zinc, lead, and cadmium. The second gradient cut through the agglomeration of Kraków and end below the Ojców National Park. On each gradient, two bee species were installed: red mason bees (Osmia bicornis) and honey bees (Apis mellifera). Red mason bee is a polylectic, solitary bee species, widely distributed in Poland. Honey bees are a highly social species of bees, with clearly defined casts and roles in the colony. Before installing the bees in the field, samples of imagos of red mason bees and samples of pollen and imagos from each honey bee colony were analysed for zinc, lead cadmium, polycyclic and monocyclic hydrocarbons levels. After collecting the bees from the field, samples of bees and pollen samples for each site were prepared for heavy metal, monocyclic hydrocarbon, and polycyclic hydrocarbon analysis. Analyses of aromatic hydrocarbons were performed with gas chromatography coupled with a headspace sampler (HP 7694E) and mass spectrometer (MS) as detector. Monocyclic compounds were injected into column with headspace sampler while polycyclic ones with manual injector (after solid-liquid extraction with hexane). The heavy metal content (zinc, lead and cadmium) was assessed with flame atomic absorption spectroscopy (FAAS AAnalyst 300 Perkin Elmer spectrometer) according to the methods for honey and bee products described in the literature. Pollution levels found in bee bodies and imago body masses in both species, and proportion of sex in case of red mason bees were correlated with pollution levels found in pollen for each site and colony or trap nest. An attempt to pinpoint the most important form of contamination regarding bee health was also be undertaken based on the achieved results.

Keywords: heavy metals, aromatic hydrocarbons, bees, pollution

Procedia PDF Downloads 493
479 The Psychological and Subjective Well-being of Ethiopian adults: Correlates, Explanations, and Cross-Cultural Constructions

Authors: Kassahun Tilahun

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The purpose of the study was two-fold: to examine the socio-demographic and psychological predictors of well-being and formulate a socio-culturally sound approach explaining the meaning and experience of psychological well-being among Ethiopian adults. Ryan and Deci’s Self-Determination Theory was duly considered as a theoretical framework of the study. The study followed a sequential explanatory mixed method design. Both quantitative and qualitative data were obtained, via scales and open-ended questionnaires, from 438 civil servants working in Addis Ababa. 30 interviews were also conducted to gain further information. An in-depth analysis of the reliability and validity of instruments was made before employing them to the main study. The results showed that adults were better off in both their scores of psychological and subjective well-being. Besides, adults’ well-being was found to be quite a function of their gender, age, marital status, educational level and household income. Males had a healthier psychological well-being status than females, where as females were better in their subjective well-being. A significant difference in psychological well-being was also observed between emerging and young adults, in favor of the young; and between cohabitated and married adults, married being advantageous. A significant difference in subjective well-being measures was also noticed among single, cohabitated and married adults, in favor of the married adults in all measures. The finding revealed that happiness level of adults decrease as their educational status increases while the reverse is true to psychological well-being. Besides, as adults’ household income boosts, so do their psychological well-being and satisfaction in life. The regression analysis also produced significant independent contributions of household income to overall well-being of adults. As such, subjective well-being was significantly predicted by dummy variable of sex and marital status. Likewise, the agreeableness, conscientiousness, neuroticism and openness dimensions of personality were notable significant predictors of adults’ psychological well-being where as extraversion and agreeableness were significant predictors of their subjective well-being. Religiosity was also a significant predictor of adults’ psychological well-being. Besides, adults’ well-being was significantly predicted by the interaction between conscientiousness and religiosity. From goal pursuit dimensions, attainment of extrinsic life goals was a significant predictor of both psychological and subjective well-being. Importance and attainment of intrinsic life goals also significantly predicts adults’ psychological well-being. Finally, the subjective well-being of adults was significantly predicted by environmental mastery, positive relations with others, self-acceptance and overall psychological well-being scores of adults. The thematic analysis identified five major categories of themes, which are essential in explaining the psychological well-being of Ethiopian adults. These were; socio-cultural harmony, social cohesion, security, competence and accomplishment, and the self. Detailed discussion on the rational for including these themes was made and appropriate implications were proposed. Researchers are encouraged to expand the findings of this research and in turn develop a suitable approach taping the psychological well-being of adults living in countries like Ethiopia.

Keywords: psychological well-being, subjective well-being, adulthood, Ethiopia

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478 Loud Silence: A Situation Analysis of Youth Living with Hearing Impairment in Uganda

Authors: Wandera Stephen Ojumbo

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People living with hearing impairment in Uganda are one of the most excluded minority groups in the country. The Uganda National Association of the Deaf estimates that deaf people make up 3.4% of Uganda’s 43 million people. Deaf Children and youth often appear withdrawn because they face social stigma. In 2009, photojournalist Stephen Wandera Ojumbo conducted an exhibition in Kampala titled “Silent Voices with colourful Hearts” showcasing the life of deaf children at Uganda School for the Deaf, Ntinda, in order to create awareness of their plight, raising funds for the construction of a vocational centre for the deaf that didn’t continue their education due to: lack of funds, non-inclusive educational institutions, and for those who cannot read and write. These children, whose lives were exhibited in 2009, are currently youths. In Uganda, there are just five primary schools for the deaf (three of these are located in Kampala, the capital city), and barely five secondary schools for the deaf. At the moment, some deaf children only receive special needs training equivalent to primary seven levels and the majority don’t make it to secondary school education level due to the fact that English is a second language to them. There is a communication gap between speaking parents and deaf children, which leads to the breakage of family bonds. The deaf youth run away from their homes to form a community where they can communicate freely. Likewise, employment opportunities for the deaf are equally very limited. It’s for this reason that a follow-up photo exhibition was conducted to expose more about what the youthful deaf people and their guardians go through in Uganda to get jobs, live and fit in the community, how they communicate and get understood, bonding with families instead of running away to bond with fellow deaf persons. The photo exhibition under the theme “Loud Silence” was significant in showcasing the ability of deaf youths in Uganda and eliciting solutions to make a more inclusive society for the deaf. It is hoped that partners in development will join in for intervention. The methodology used included individual interviews with the deaf youth and their parents and caretakers; photography at household and community levels; document review at organizations working with the deaf; observations; and key informant interviews with relevant personnel working with the deaf. Some of the major findings include: i) Effective sign language communication is key in deaf education, family bonding, and developing a sense of belonging; ii) Love and intimacy can keep the deaf bound together; iii) Education is important; everybody should struggle even if alone; iv) Games and sports are a unifying factor and most loved among the deaf; and v) better communication skills build confidence in deaf youth. In conclusion, concerted efforts are still needed to make Uganda schools more inclusive for deaf persons. This will enable a secure future for deaf youths.

Keywords: deaf, education, excluded, photo exhibition

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477 A Proposed Treatment Protocol for the Management of Pars Interarticularis Pathology in Children and Adolescents

Authors: Paul Licina, Emma M. Johnston, David Lisle, Mark Young, Chris Brady

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Background: Lumbar pars pathology is a common cause of pain in the growing spine. It can be seen in young athletes participating in at-risk sports and can affect sporting performance and long-term health due to its resistance to traditional management. There is a current lack of consensus of classification and treatment for pars injuries. Previous systems used CT to stage pars defects but could not assess early stress reactions. A modified classification is proposed that considers findings on MRI, significantly improving early treatment guidance. The treatment protocol is designed for patients aged 5 to 19 years. Method: Clinical screening identifies patients with a low, medium, or high index of suspicion for lumbar pars injury using patient age, sport participation and pain characteristics. MRI of the at-risk cohort enables augmentation of existing CT-based classification while avoiding ionising radiation. Patients are classified into five categories based on MRI findings. A type 0 lesion (stress reaction) is present when CT is normal and MRI shows high signal change (HSC) in the pars/pedicle on T2 images. A type 1 lesion represents the ‘early defect’ CT classification. The group previously referred to as a 'progressive stage' defect on CT can be split into 2A and 2B categories. 2As have HSC on MRI, whereas 2Bs do not. This distinction is important with regard to healing potential. Type 3 lesions are terminal stage defects on CT, characterised by pseudarthrosis. MRI shows no HSC. Results: Stress reactions (type 0) and acute fractures (1 and 2a) can heal and are treated in a custom-made hard brace for 12 weeks. It is initially worn 23 hours per day. At three weeks, patients commence basic core rehabilitation. At six weeks, in the absence of pain, the brace is removed for sleeping. Exercises are progressed to positions of daily living. Patients with continued pain remain braced 23 hours per day without exercise progression until becoming symptom-free. At nine weeks, patients commence supervised exercises out of the brace for 30 minutes each day. This allows them to re-learn muscular control without rigid support of the brace. At 12 weeks, bracing ceases and MRI is repeated. For patients with near or complete resolution of bony oedema and healing of any cortical defect, rehabilitation is focused on strength and conditioning and sport-specific exercise for the full return to activity. The length of this final stage is approximately nine weeks but depends on factors such as development and level of sports participation. If significant HSC remains on MRI, CT scan is considered to definitively assess cortical defect healing. For these patients, return to high-risk sports is delayed for up to three months. Chronic defects (2b and 3) cannot heal and are not braced, and rehabilitation follows traditional protocols. Conclusion: Appropriate clinical screening and imaging with MRI can identify pars pathology early. In those with potential for healing, we propose hard bracing and appropriate rehabilitation as part of a multidisciplinary management protocol. The validity of this protocol will be tested in future studies.

Keywords: adolescents, MRI classification, pars interticularis, treatment protocol

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476 Impact of Experiential Learning on Executive Function, Language Development, and Quality of Life for Adults with Intellectual and Developmental Disabilities (IDD)

Authors: Mary Deyo, Zmara Harrison

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This study reports the outcomes of an 8-week experiential learning program for 6 adults with Intellectual and Developmental Disabilities (IDD) at a day habilitation program. The intervention foci for this program include executive function, language learning in the domains of expressive, receptive, and pragmatic language, and quality of life. The interprofessional collaboration aimed at supporting adults with IDD to reach person-centered, functional goals across skill domains is critical. This study is a significant addition to the speech-language pathology literature in that it examines a therapy method that potentially meets this need while targeting domains within the speech-language pathology scope of practice. Communication therapy was provided during highly valued and meaningful hands-on learning experiences, referred to as the Garden Club, which incorporated all aspects of planting and caring for a garden as well as related journaling, sensory, cooking, art, and technology-based activities. Direct care staff and an undergraduate research assistant were trained by SLP to be impactful language guides during their interactions with participants in the Garden Club. SLP also provided direct therapy and modeling during Garden Club. Research methods used in this study included a mixed methods analysis of a literature review, a quasi-experimental implementation of communication therapy in the context of experiential learning activities, Quality of Life participant surveys, quantitative pre- post- data collection and linear mixed model analysis, qualitative data collection with qualitative content analysis and coding for themes. Outcomes indicated overall positive changes in expressive vocabulary, following multi-step directions, sequencing, problem-solving, planning, skills for building and maintaining meaningful social relationships, and participant perception of the Garden Project’s impact on their own quality of life. Implementation of this project also highlighted supports and barriers that must be taken into consideration when planning similar projects. Overall findings support the use of experiential learning projects in day habilitation programs for adults with IDD, as well as additional research to deepen understanding of best practices, supports, and barriers for implementation of experiential learning with this population. This research provides an important contribution to research in the fields of speech-language pathology and other professions serving adults with IDD by describing an interprofessional experiential learning program with positive outcomes for executive function, language learning, and quality of life.

Keywords: experiential learning, adults, intellectual and developmental disabilities, expressive language, receptive language, pragmatic language, executive function, communication therapy, day habilitation, interprofessionalism, quality of life

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475 The Therapeutic Potential, Functions, and Use of Ibogaine

Authors: João Pedro Zanella, Michel J. O. Fagundes

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Introduction: Drug use has been practised by humans universally for millennia, not excluding any population from these habits, however, the rampant drug use is a global concern due to the harm that affects the health of the world population. In this sense, it is observed the reduction of lasting and effective public policies for the resolution, increasing the demand for treatment services. With this comes ibogaine, an alkaloid derived from the root of an African bush (Tabernanthe Iboga), found mostly in Gabon and used widely by the native Bwiti population in rituals, and also other social groups, which demonstrates efficacy against chemical dependence, psychic and emotional disorders, opioid withdrawal was first confirmed by a study in rats done by Michailo Dzoljic and associates in 1988 and again in 1994. Methods: A brief description of the plant, its neurohumoral potential and the effects caused by ingested doses, in a simplified and objective way, will be discussed in the course of this abstract. Results: Ibogaine is not registered or passed by Anvisa, regarding safety and efficacy, and cannot be sold in Brazil. Its illegal trade reaches R$ 5 thousand for a session with the proceeds of the root, and its effect can last up to 72 hours, attributing Iboga's psychoactive effects to the alkaloid called ibogaine. The shrub where Ibogaine is located has pink and yellow flowers, and its fruit produced does not have psychoactive substances, but its root bark contains 6 to 7% indolic alkaloids. Besides extraction from the iboga plant, ibogaine hydrochloride can be semisynthesized from voacangine, another plant alkaloid that acts as a precursor. Its potential has the ability to perform multiple interactions with the neurotransmitter system, which are closely associated with addiction, including nicotinic, opioid and serotoninergic systems. Studies carried out by Edwards found that the doses administered of Iboga should be determined by a health professional when its purpose is to treat individuals for dependence on other drugs. Its use in small doses may cause an increase in sensibility, impaired vision and motor alterations; in moderate quantities, hallucinations, motor and neurological alterations and impaired vision; in high quantities it may cause hallucinations with personal events at a deeper level lasting up to 24 hours or more, followed by motor and visual alterations. Conclusion: The product extracted from the Iboga plant is of great importance in controlling addiction, reducing the need for the use of narcotics by patients, thus gaining a space of extreme importance in the treatment of users of psychoactive substances. It is remarkable the progress of the latest’s research about the usefulness of Ibogaine, and its benefits for certain treatments, even with the restriction of its sale in Brazil. Besides this, Ibogaine has an additional benefit of helping the patient to gain self-control over their destructive behaviours.

Keywords: alkaloids, dependence, Gabon, ibogaine

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474 Controlling Deforestation in the Densely Populated Region of Central Java Province, Banjarnegara District, Indonesia

Authors: Guntur Bagus Pamungkas

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As part of a tropical country that is normally rich in forest land areas, Indonesia has always been in the world's spotlight due to its significantly increasing process of deforestation. In one hand, it is related to the mainstay for maintaining the sustainability of the earth's ecosystem functions. On the other hand, they also cover the various potential sources of the global economy. Therefore, it can always be the target of different scale of investors to excessively exploit them. No wonder the emergence of disasters in various characteristics always comes up. In fact, the deforestation phenomenon does not only occur in various forest land areas in the main islands of Indonesia but also includes Java Island, the most densely populated areas in the world. This island only remains the forest land of about 9.8% of the total forest land in Indonesia due to its long history of it, especially in Central Java Province, the most densely populated area in Java. Again, not surprisingly, this province belongs to the area with the highest frequency of disasters because of it, landslides in particular. One of the areas that often experience it is Banjarnegara District, especially in mountainous areas that lies in the range from 1000 to 3000 meters above sea level, where the remains of land forest area can easyly still be found. Even among them still leaves less untouchable tropical rain forest whose area also covers part of a neighboring district, Pekalongan, which is considered to be the rest of the world's little paradise on Earth. The district's landscape is indeed beautiful, especially in the Dieng area, a major tourist destination in Central Java Province after Borobudur Temple. However, annually hazardous always threatens this district due to this landslide disaster. Even, there was a tragic event that was buried with its inhabitants a few decades ago. This research aims to find part of the concept of effective forest management through monitoring the presence of remaining forest areas in this area. The research implemented monitoring of deforestation rates using the Stochastic Cellular Automata-Markov Chain (SCA-MC) method, which serves to provide a spatial simulation of land use and cover changes (LULCC). This geospatial process uses the Landsat-8 OLI image product with Thermal Infra-Red Sensors (TIRS) Band 10 in 2020 and Landsat 5 TM with TIRS Band 6 in 2010. Then it is also integrated with physical and social geography issues using the QGIS 2.18.11 application with the Mollusce Plugin, which serves to clarify and calculate the area of land use and cover, especially in forest areas—using the LULCC method, which calculates the rate of forest area reduction in 2010-2020 in Banjarnegara District. Since the dependence of this area on the use of forest land is quite high, concepts and preventive actions are needed, such as rehabilitation and reforestation of critical lands through providing proper monitoring and targeted forest management to restore its ecosystem in the future.

Keywords: deforestation, populous area, LULCC method, proper control and effective forest management

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473 Comparison of GIS-Based Soil Erosion Susceptibility Models Using Support Vector Machine, Binary Logistic Regression and Artificial Neural Network in the Southwest Amazon Region

Authors: Elaine Lima Da Fonseca, Eliomar Pereira Da Silva Filho

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The modeling of areas susceptible to soil loss by hydro erosive processes consists of a simplified instrument of reality with the purpose of predicting future behaviors from the observation and interaction of a set of geoenvironmental factors. The models of potential areas for soil loss will be obtained through binary logistic regression, artificial neural networks, and support vector machines. The choice of the municipality of Colorado do Oeste in the south of the western Amazon is due to soil degradation due to anthropogenic activities, such as agriculture, road construction, overgrazing, deforestation, and environmental and socioeconomic configurations. Initially, a soil erosion inventory map constructed through various field investigations will be designed, including the use of remotely piloted aircraft, orbital imagery, and the PLANAFLORO/RO database. 100 sampling units with the presence of erosion will be selected based on the assumptions indicated in the literature, and, to complement the dichotomous analysis, 100 units with no erosion will be randomly designated. The next step will be the selection of the predictive parameters that exert, jointly, directly, or indirectly, some influence on the mechanism of occurrence of soil erosion events. The chosen predictors are altitude, declivity, aspect or orientation of the slope, curvature of the slope, composite topographic index, flow power index, lineament density, normalized difference vegetation index, drainage density, lithology, soil type, erosivity, and ground surface temperature. After evaluating the relative contribution of each predictor variable, the erosion susceptibility model will be applied to the municipality of Colorado do Oeste - Rondônia through the SPSS Statistic 26 software. Evaluation of the model will occur through the determination of the values of the R² of Cox & Snell and the R² of Nagelkerke, Hosmer and Lemeshow Test, Log Likelihood Value, and Wald Test, in addition to analysis of the Confounding Matrix, ROC Curve and Accumulated Gain according to the model specification. The validation of the synthesis map resulting from both models of the potential risk of soil erosion will occur by means of Kappa indices, accuracy, and sensitivity, as well as by field verification of the classes of susceptibility to erosion using drone photogrammetry. Thus, it is expected to obtain the mapping of the following classes of susceptibility to erosion very low, low, moderate, very high, and high, which may constitute a screening tool to identify areas where more detailed investigations need to be carried out, applying more efficient social resources.

Keywords: modeling, susceptibility to erosion, artificial intelligence, Amazon

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