Search results for: reference monitor
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 3273

Search results for: reference monitor

1143 Radiation Annealing of Radiation Embrittlement of the Reactor Pressure Vessel

Authors: E. A. Krasikov

Abstract:

Influence of neutron irradiation on RPV steel degradation are examined with reference to the possible reasons of the substantial experimental data scatter and furthermore – nonstandard (non-monotonous) and oscillatory embrittlement behavior. In our glance, this phenomenon may be explained by presence of the wavelike component in the embrittlement kinetics. We suppose that the main factor affecting steel anomalous embrittlement is fast neutron intensity (dose rate or flux), flux effect manifestation depends on state-of-the-art fluence level. At low fluencies, radiation degradation has to exceed normative value, then approaches to normative meaning and finally became sub normative. Data on radiation damage change including through the ex-service RPVs taking into account chemical factor, fast neutron fluence and neutron flux were obtained and analyzed. In our opinion, controversy in the estimation on neutron flux on radiation degradation impact may be explained by presence of the wavelike component in the embrittlement kinetics. Therefore, flux effect manifestation depends on fluence level. At low fluencies, radiation degradation has to exceed normative value, then approaches to normative meaning and finally became sub normative. Moreover as a hypothesis we suppose that at some stages of irradiation damaged metal have to be partially restored by irradiation i.e. neutron bombardment. Nascent during irradiation structure undergo occurring once or periodically transformation in a direction both degradation and recovery of the initial properties. According to our hypothesis, at some stage(s) of metal structure degradation neutron bombardment became recovering factor. As a result, oscillation arises that in turn leads to enhanced data scatter.

Keywords: annealing, embrittlement, radiation, RPV steel

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1142 Evaluation of the Skid Resistance of Asphalt Concrete Made of Local Low-Performance Aggregates Based on New Accelerated Polishing Machine

Authors: Saci Abdelhakim Ferkous, Khedoudja Soudani, Smail Haddadi

Abstract:

This paper presents the results of a laboratory experimental study that explores the skid resistance of asphalt concrete mixtures made of local low-performance aggregates by partially replacing sand with olive mill waste (OMW). OMW was mixed with aggregates using a dry process by replacing sand with contents of 5%, 7%, 10% and 15%. The mechanical performances of the mixtures were evaluated using the Marshall and Duriez tests. A modified accelerated polishing machine was used as polishing equipment, and a British pendulum tester (BPT) was used to test the skid resistance of the samples. Finally, texture parameter analysis was performed using scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and Mountains Map software to assess the effect of OMW on the friction coefficient evolution. Using a distinct road wheel for a modified version of an accelerated polishing machine, which is normally used to determine the polished stone value of aggregates, the results showed that the addition of OMW up to 10% conferred a better skid resistance in comparison to normal asphalt concrete. The presence of olive mill waste in the mixture until 15% guarantees a gain of 22%-29% in skid resistance after polishing compared with the reference mix. Indeed, from texture parameter analysis, it was observed that there was differential wear of the lightweight aggregates (OMW) compared to the other aggregates during the polishing process, which created a new surface microtexture that had new peaks and led to a good level of friction compared to the mixtures without OMW. In general, it was found that OMW is a promising modifier for asphalt mixtures with both engineering and economic merits.

Keywords: skid resistance, olive mill waste, polishing resistance, accelerated polishing machine, local materials, sustainable development.

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1141 'I Mean' in Teacher Questioning Sequences in Post-Task Discussions: A Conversation Analytic Study

Authors: Derya Duran, Christine Jacknick

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Despite a growing body of research on classroom, especially language classroom interactions, much more is yet to be discovered on how interaction is organized in higher education settings. This study investigates how the discourse marker 'I mean' in teacher questioning turns functions as a resource to promote student participation as well as to enhance collective understanding in whole-class discussions. This paper takes a conversation analytic perspective, drawing on 30-hour video recordings of classroom interaction in an English as a medium of instruction university in Turkey. Two content classrooms (i.e., Guidance) were observed during an academic term. The course was offered to 4th year students (n=78) in the Faculty of Education; students were majoring in different subjects (i.e., Early Childhood Education, Foreign Language Education, Mathematics Education). Results of the study demonstrate the multi-functionality of discourse marker 'I mean' in teacher questioning turns. In the context of English as a medium of instruction classrooms where possible sources of confusion may occur, we found that 'I mean' is primarily used to indicate upcoming adjustments. More specifically, it is employed for a variety of interactional purposes such as elaboration, clarification, specification, reformulation, and reference to the instructional activity. The study sheds light on the multiplicity of functions of the discourse marker in academic interactions and it uncovers how certain linguistic resources serve functions to the organization of repair such as the maintenance of understanding in classroom interaction. In doing so, it also shows the ways in which participation is routinely enacted in shared interactional events through linguistic resources.

Keywords: conversation analysis, discourse marker, English as a medium of instruction, repair

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1140 Assessing Storage of Stability and Mercury Reduction of Freeze-Dried Pseudomonas putida within Different Types of Lyoprotectant

Authors: A. A. M. Azoddein, Y. Nuratri, A. B. Bustary, F. A. M. Azli, S. C. Sayuti

Abstract:

Pseudomonas putida is a potential strain in biological treatment to remove mercury contained in the effluent of petrochemical industry due to its mercury reductase enzyme that able to reduce ionic mercury to elementary mercury. Freeze-dried P. putida allows easy, inexpensive shipping, handling and high stability of the product. This study was aimed to freeze dry P. putida cells with addition of lyoprotectant. Lyoprotectant was added into the cells suspension prior to freezing. Dried P. putida obtained was then mixed with synthetic mercury. Viability of recovery P. putida after freeze dry was significantly influenced by the type of lyoprotectant. Among the lyoprotectants, tween 80/ sucrose was found to be the best lyoprotectant. Sucrose able to recover more than 78% (6.2E+09 CFU/ml) of the original cells (7.90E+09CFU/ml) after freeze dry and able to retain 5.40E+05 viable cells after 4 weeks storage in 4oC without vacuum. Polyethylene glycol (PEG) pre-treated freeze dry cells and broth pre-treated freeze dry cells after freeze-dry recovered more than 64% (5.0 E+09CFU/ml) and >0.1% (5.60E+07CFU/ml). Freeze-dried P. putida cells in PEG and broth cannot survive after 4 weeks storage. Freeze dry also does not really change the pattern of growth P. putida but extension of lag time was found 1 hour after 3 weeks of storage. Additional time was required for freeze-dried P. putida cells to recover before introduce freeze-dried cells to more complicated condition such as mercury solution. The maximum mercury reduction of PEG pre-treated freeze-dried cells after freeze dry and after storage 3 weeks was 56.78% and 17.91%. The maximum of mercury reduction of tween 80/sucrose pre-treated freeze-dried cells after freeze dry and after storage 3 weeks were 26.35% and 25.03%. Freeze dried P. putida was found to have lower mercury reduction compare to the fresh P. putida that has been growth in agar. Result from this study may be beneficial and useful as initial reference before commercialize freeze-dried P. putida.

Keywords: Pseudomonas putida, freeze-dry, PEG, tween80/Sucrose, mercury, cell viability

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1139 Distinct Patterns of Resilience Identified Using Smartphone Mobile Experience Sampling Method (M-ESM) and a Dual Model of Mental Health

Authors: Hussain-Abdulah Arjmand, Nikki S. Rickard

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The response to stress can be highly heterogenous, and may be influenced by methodological factors. The integrity of data will be optimized by measuring both positive and negative affective responses to an event, by measuring responses in real time as close to the stressful event as possible, and by utilizing data collection methods that do not interfere with naturalistic behaviours. The aim of the current study was to explore short term prototypical responses to major stressor events on outcome measures encompassing both positive and negative indicators of psychological functioning. A novel mobile experience sampling methodology (m-ESM) was utilized to monitor both effective responses to stressors in real time. A smartphone mental health app (‘Moodprism’) which prompts users daily to report both their positive and negative mood, as well as whether any significant event had occurred in the past 24 hours, was developed for this purpose. A sample of 142 participants was recruited as part of the promotion of this app. Participants’ daily reported experience of stressor events, levels of depressive symptoms and positive affect were collected across a 30 day period as they used the app. For each participant, major stressor events were identified on the subjective severity of the event rated by the user. Depression and positive affect ratings were extracted for the three days following the event. Responses to the event were scaled relative to their general reactivity across the remainder of the 30 day period. Participants were first clustered into groups based on initial reactivity and subsequent recovery following a stressor event. This revealed distinct patterns of responding along depressive symptomatology and positive affect. Participants were then grouped based on allocations to clusters in each outcome variable. A highly individualised nature in which participants respond to stressor events, in symptoms of depression and levels of positive affect, was observed. A complete description of the novel profiles identified will be presented at the conference. These findings suggest that real-time measurement of both positive and negative functioning to stressors yields a more complex set of responses than previously observed with retrospective reporting. The use of smartphone technology to measure individualized responding also proved to shed significant insight.

Keywords: depression, experience sampling methodology, positive functioning, resilience

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1138 Numerical Simulations of Acoustic Imaging in Hydrodynamic Tunnel with Model Adaptation and Boundary Layer Noise Reduction

Authors: Sylvain Amailland, Jean-Hugh Thomas, Charles Pézerat, Romuald Boucheron, Jean-Claude Pascal

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The noise requirements for naval and research vessels have seen an increasing demand for quieter ships in order to fulfil current regulations and to reduce the effects on marine life. Hence, new methods dedicated to the characterization of propeller noise, which is the main source of noise in the far-field, are needed. The study of cavitating propellers in closed-section is interesting for analyzing hydrodynamic performance but could involve significant difficulties for hydroacoustic study, especially due to reverberation and boundary layer noise in the tunnel. The aim of this paper is to present a numerical methodology for the identification of hydroacoustic sources on marine propellers using hydrophone arrays in a large hydrodynamic tunnel. The main difficulties are linked to the reverberation of the tunnel and the boundary layer noise that strongly reduce the signal-to-noise ratio. In this paper it is proposed to estimate the reflection coefficients using an inverse method and some reference transfer functions measured in the tunnel. This approach allows to reduce the uncertainties of the propagation model used in the inverse problem. In order to reduce the boundary layer noise, a cleaning algorithm taking advantage of the low rank and sparse structure of the cross-spectrum matrices of the acoustic and the boundary layer noise is presented. This approach allows to recover the acoustic signal even well under the boundary layer noise. The improvement brought by this method is visible on acoustic maps resulting from beamforming and DAMAS algorithms.

Keywords: acoustic imaging, boundary layer noise denoising, inverse problems, model adaptation

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1137 An Adaptive Controller Method Based on Full-State Linear Model of Variable Cycle Engine

Authors: Jia Li, Huacong Li, Xiaobao Han

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Due to the more variable geometry parameters of VCE (variable cycle aircraft engine), presents an adaptive controller method based on the full-state linear model of VCE and has simulated to solve the multivariate controller design problem of the whole flight envelops. First, analyzes the static and dynamic performances of bypass ratio and other state parameters caused by variable geometric components, and develops nonlinear component model of VCE. Then based on the component model, through small deviation linearization of main fuel (Wf), the area of tail nozzle throat (A8) and the angle of rear bypass ejector (A163), setting up multiple linear model which variable geometric parameters can be inputs. Second, designs the adaptive controllers for VCE linear models of different nominal points. Among them, considering of modeling uncertainties and external disturbances, derives the adaptive law by lyapunov function. The simulation results showed that, the adaptive controller method based on full-state linear model used the angle of rear bypass ejector as input and effectively solved the multivariate control problems of VCE. The performance of all nominal points could track the desired closed-loop reference instructions. The adjust time was less than 1.2s, and the system overshoot was less than 1%, at the same time, the errors of steady states were less than 0.5% and the dynamic tracking errors were less than 1%. In addition, the designed controller could effectively suppress interference and reached the desired commands with different external random noise signals.

Keywords: variable cycle engine (VCE), full-state linear model, adaptive control, by-pass ratio

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1136 Efficacy of Ethanolic Extract of Aerva javanica Aerial Parts in the Amelioration of CCl4-Induced Hepatotoxicity and Oxidative Damage in Rats

Authors: Mohammad K. Parvez, Ahmed H. Arbab, Mohammed S. Al-Dosari, Adnan J. Al-Rehaily

Abstract:

We investigated ex vivo and in vivo antioxidative and hepatoprotective effect of Aerva javanica. Total ethanol extract of A. javanica aerial parts was prepared, and tested on DCFH-toxicated HepG2 cell in CCl4-injured Wistar rats. MTT-assay was used to determine cell viability, and serum biochemical markers of liver injury as well as histopathology were performed. In vitro DPPH and β-carotene free-radical scavenging assay and phytochemical screening of the extract was done. Furthermore, A. javanica total extract was standardized and validated by HPTLC method. While DCFH-injured cells were recovered to about 56.7% by 100 microg/ml of the extract, a 200 microg/ml dose resulted in hepatocytes recovery by about 90.2%. Oral administration of the extract (100 and 200 mg/kg.bw/day) significantly normalized the serum SGOT, SGPT, GGT, ALP, bilirubin, cholesterol, HDL, LDL, VLDL, TG and MDA levels, including tissue NP-SH and TP in CCl4-injured rats. In addition, the histopathology of dissected liver also revealed that A. javanica cured the tissue lesion compared to reference drug, Silymarin. In vitro assays revealed strong free-radical scavenging ability of the extract and presence of alkaloids, flavonoids, tannins, sterols and saponins where Rutin, a well-known antioxidant flavonoid was identified. Our finding therefore, suggests the therapeutic potential of A. javanica in various liver diseases. However, isolation of the active principles, their mechanism of action and other therapeutic contribution remain to be addressed.

Keywords: Aerva javanica, antioxidant, hepatoprotection, rutin

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1135 Automated Fact-Checking by Incorporating Contextual Knowledge and Multi-Faceted Search

Authors: Wenbo Wang, Yi-Fang Brook Wu

Abstract:

The spread of misinformation and disinformation has become a major concern, particularly with the rise of social media as a primary source of information for many people. As a means to address this phenomenon, automated fact-checking has emerged as a safeguard against the spread of misinformation and disinformation. Existing fact-checking approaches aim to determine whether a news claim is true or false, and they have achieved decent veracity prediction accuracy. However, the state-of-the-art methods rely on manually verified external information to assist the checking model in making judgments, which requires significant human resources. This study introduces a framework, SAC, which focuses on 1) augmenting the representation of a claim by incorporating additional context using general-purpose, comprehensive, and authoritative data; 2) developing a search function to automatically select relevant, new, and credible references; 3) focusing on the important parts of the representations of a claim and its reference that are most relevant to the fact-checking task. The experimental results demonstrate that 1) Augmenting the representations of claims and references through the use of a knowledge base, combined with the multi-head attention technique, contributes to improved performance of fact-checking. 2) SAC with auto-selected references outperforms existing fact-checking approaches with manual selected references. Future directions of this study include I) exploring knowledge graphs in Wikidata to dynamically augment the representations of claims and references without introducing too much noise, II) exploring semantic relations in claims and references to further enhance fact-checking.

Keywords: fact checking, claim verification, deep learning, natural language processing

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1134 Heating Demand Reduction in Single Family Houses Community through Home Energy Management: Putting Users in Charge

Authors: Omar Shafqat, Jaime Arias, Cristian Bogdan, Björn Palm

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Heating constitutes a major part of the overall energy consumption in Sweden. In 2013 heating and hot water accounted for about 55% of the total energy use in the housing sector. Historically, the end users have not been able to make a significant impact on their consumption on account of traditional control systems that do not facilitate interaction and control of the heating systems. However, in recent years internet connected home energy management systems have become increasingly available which allow users to visualize the indoor temperatures as well as control the heating system. However, the adoption of these systems is still in its nascent stages. This paper presents the outcome of a study carried out in a community of single-family houses in Stockholm. Heating in the area is provided through district heating, and the neighbourhood is connected through a local micro thermal grid, which is owned and operated by the local community. Heating in the houses is accomplished through a hydronic system equipped with radiators. The system installed offers the households to control the indoor temperature through a mobile application as well as through a physical thermostat. It was also possible to program the system to, for instance, lower the temperatures during night time and when the users were away. The users could also monitor the indoor temperatures through the application. It was additionally possible to create different zones in the house with their own individual programming. The historical heating data (in the form of billing data) was available for several previous years and has been used to perform quantitative analysis for the study after necessary normalization for weather variations. The experiment involved 30 households out of a community of 178 houses. The area was selected due to uniform construction profile in the area. It was observed that despite similar design and construction period there was a large variation in the heating energy consumption in the area which can for a large part be attributed to user behaviour. The paper also presents qualitative analysis done through survey questions as well as a focus group carried out with the participants. Overall, considerable energy savings were accomplished during the trial, however, there was a considerable variation between the participating households. The paper additionally presents recommendations to improve the impact of home energy management systems for heating in terms of improving user engagement and hence the energy impact.

Keywords: energy efficiency in buildings, energy behavior, heating control system, home energy management system

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1133 Comprehensive Geriatric Assessments: An Audit into Assessing and Improving Uptake on Geriatric Wards at King’s College Hospital, London

Authors: Michael Adebayo, Saheed Lawal

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The Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment (CGA) is the multidimensional tool used to assess elderly, frail patients either on admission to hospital care or at a community level in primary care. It is a tool designed with the aim of using a holistic approach to managing patients. A Cochrane review of CGA use in 2011 found that the likelihood of being alive and living in their own home rises by 30% post-discharge. RCTs have also discovered 10–15% reductions in readmission rates and reductions in institutionalization, and resource use and costs. Past audit cycles at King’s College Hospital, Denmark Hill had shown inconsistent evidence of CGA completion inpatient discharge summaries (less than 50%). Junior Doctors in the Health and Ageing (HAU) wards have struggled to sustain the efforts of past audit cycles due to the quick turnover in staff (four-month placements for trainees). This 7th cycle created a multi-faceted approach to solving this problem amongst staff and creating lasting change. Methods: 1. We adopted multidisciplinary team involvement to support Doctors. MDT staff e.g. Nurses, Physiotherapists, Occupational Therapists and Dieticians, were actively encouraged to fill in the CGA document. 2. We added a CGA Document Pro-forma to “Sunrise EPR” (Trust computer system). These CGAs were to automatically be included the discharge summary. 3. Prior to assessing uptake, we used a spot audit questionnaire to assess staff awareness/knowledge of what a CGA was. 4. We designed and placed posters highlighting domains of CGA and MDT roles suited to each domain on geriatric “Health and Ageing Wards” (HAU) in the hospital. 5. We performed an audit of % discharge summaries which include CGA and MDT role input. 6. We nominated ward champions on each ward from each multidisciplinary specialty to monitor and encourage colleagues to actively complete CGAs. 7. We initiated further education of ward staff on CGA's importance by discussion at board rounds and weekly multidisciplinary meetings. Outcomes: 1. The majority of respondents to our spot audit were aware of what a CGA was, but fewer had used the EPR document to complete one. 2. We found that CGAs were not being commenced for nearly 50% of patients discharged on HAU wards and the Frailty Assessment Unit.

Keywords: comprehensive geriatric assessment, CGA, multidisciplinary team, quality of life, mortality

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1132 The Cultural Persona of Artificial Intelligence: An Analysis of Anthropological Challenges to Public Communication

Authors: Abhivardhan, Ritu Agarwal

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The role of entrepreneurial ethics is connected with materializing the core components of human life, and the flexible and gullible attributions dominate the materialization of human lifestyle and outreach in the age of the internet and globalization. One of the key bi-products of the age of information – Artificial Intelligence has become a relevant mechanism to materialize and understand human empathy and originality via various algorithmic policing methodologies with specific intricacies. Since it has a special connection with ethnocentrism – it has the potential to influence the approach of international law and politics owed to the rise of and approach towards perception and communication via populism in progressive and third world countries. The paper argues about the cultural persona of artificial intelligence, and its ontological resemblance in human life is connected with the ethnocentric treatment of cyberspace, with an analysis of the influence of the ethics of entrepreneurship in international politics. The paper further provides an analysis of fake news and misinformation as the sub-strata of communication strategies involving populism determined as a communication strategy and about the legal case of constitutional redemption in recent legislative developments in Europe, the U.S, and Asia with reference to certain important strategies, policy documentation, declarations, and legal instruments. The paper concludes that the capillaries of the anthropomorphic developments of cultural perception via towards artificial intelligence have a hidden and unstable connection with the common approach of entrepreneurial ethics, which influences populism to disrupt the peaceful order of international politics via some minor backlashes in the technological, legal and social realm of human life. Suggestions with the conclusion are hereby provided.

Keywords: ethnocentrism, perception politics, populism, international law, slacktivism, artificial intelligence ethics, enculturation

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1131 Marketing Parameters on Consumer's Perceptions of Farmed Sea Bass in Greece

Authors: Sophia Anastasiou, Cosmas Nathanailides, Fotini Kakali, Kostas Karipoglou

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Wild fish are considered as testier and in fish restaurants are offered at twice the price of farmed fish. Several chemical and structural differences can affect the consumer's attitudes for farmed fish. The structure and chemical composition of fish muscle is also important for the performance of farmed fish during handling, storage and processing. In the present work we present the chemical and sensory parameters which are used as indicators of fish flesh quality and we investigated the perceptions of consumers for farmed sea bass and the organoleptic differences between samples of wild and farmed sea bass. A questionnaire was distributed to a group of various ages that were regular consumers of sea bass. The questionnaire included a survey on the perceptions on taste and appearance differences between wild and farmed sea bass. A significant percentage (>40%) of the participants stated their perception of superior taste of wild sea bass versus the farmed fish. The participants took part in an organoleptic assessment of wild and farmed sea bass prepared and cooked by a local fish restaurant. Portions were evaluated for intensity of sensorial attributes from 1 (low intensity) to 5 (high intensity). The results indicate that contrary to the assessor's perception, farmed sea bass scored better in al organoleptic parameters assessed with marked superiority in texture and taste over the wild sea bass. This research has been co-financed by the European Union (European Social Fund – ESF) and Greek national funds through the Operational Program "Education and Lifelong Learning" of the National Strategic Reference Framework (NSRF) - Research Funding Program: ARCHIMEDES III. Investing in knowledge society through the European Social Fund.

Keywords: fish marketing, farmed fish, seafood quality, wild fish

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1130 Innovative Waste Management Practices in Remote Areas

Authors: Dolores Hidalgo, Jesús M. Martín-Marroquín, Francisco Corona

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Municipal waste consist of a variety of items that are everyday discarded by the population. They are usually collected by municipalities and include waste generated by households, commercial activities (local shops) and public buildings. The composition of municipal waste varies greatly from place to place, being mostly related to levels and patterns of consumption, rates of urbanization, lifestyles, and local or national waste management practices. Each year, a huge amount of resources is consumed in the EU, and according to that, also a huge amount of waste is produced. The environmental problems derived from the management and processing of these waste streams are well known, and include impacts on land, water and air. The situation in remote areas is even worst. Difficult access when climatic conditions are adverse, remoteness of centralized municipal treatment systems or dispersion of the population, are all factors that make remote areas a real municipal waste treatment challenge. Furthermore, the scope of the problem increases significantly because the total lack of awareness of the existing risks in this area together with the poor implementation of advanced culture on waste minimization and recycling responsibly. The aim of this work is to analyze the existing situation in remote areas in reference to the production of municipal waste and evaluate the efficiency of different management alternatives. Ideas for improving waste management in remote areas include, for example: the implementation of self-management systems for the organic fraction; establish door-to-door collection models; promote small-scale treatment facilities or adjust the rates of waste generation thereof.

Keywords: door to door collection, islands, isolated areas, municipal waste, remote areas, rural communities

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1129 Influence of Yōmeigaku and Emerson on Meiji Intelligentsia: With Special Reference to Kitamura Tōkoku

Authors: Arpita Paul

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Wang Yang-ming introduced a revolutionary dimension to Japanese thought through his philosophy on intuitive moral consciousness. Post-Meiji Restoration,Emerson struck a chord with the Japanese due to the striking similarities his theories on transcendentalism had with doctrines of Wang Yang-ming'sschool of thought (Yōmeigaku), as pointed out by HomeiIwano (1873-1920). Wang's philosophy, chiefly anchored in the idea of the fundamental unity of thought and action, resembles the non-dualistic aspect of Brahman, a subject of Emerson's deep interest. Kitamura Tōkoku's (1868-1894) ardent reading of Emerson corroborated what he had learned in Wang Yang-ming's philosophy. This essay shall begin with a discussion on Emerson's discoveries of Vedanta that later, on a parallel ground with Yōmeigaku, significantly influenced Tōkoku. This essay will then demonstrate how Tōkokutransforms these philosophies to portray the advent of modern consciousness in Japan in his magnum opus"Naibuseimeiron." In his attempt to undo the blindfold of past feudalism,Tōkoku repeatedly championed the mental process of a self-reliant individual in his essays which showcase the metamorphosis of Japanese individualism in the final decades of the Meiji Period. In seeking to express Japan's budding intellectual enterprise,Tōkoku asserts securing one's vantage point in the world through an awakened consciousness. In his desire to articulate this, Tōkoku becomes, as argued in this paper's penultimate and final sections, a fascinating merging point of the philosophical doctrines of Vedanta, Yōmeigaku, and Emerson, a rare depiction in the existing scholarship.

Keywords: meiji intellengtsia, yomeigaku, vedanta, modern consciousness

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1128 A Challenge to Acquire Serious Victims’ Locations during Acute Period of Giant Disasters

Authors: Keiko Shimazu, Yasuhiro Maida, Tetsuya Sugata, Daisuke Tamakoshi, Kenji Makabe, Haruki Suzuki

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In this paper, we report how to acquire serious victims’ locations in the Acute Stage of Large-scale Disasters, in an Emergency Information Network System designed by us. The background of our concept is based on the Great East Japan Earthquake occurred on March 11th, 2011. Through many experiences of national crises caused by earthquakes and tsunamis, we have established advanced communication systems and advanced disaster medical response systems. However, Japan was devastated by huge tsunamis swept a vast area of Tohoku causing a complete breakdown of all the infrastructures including telecommunications. Therefore, we noticed that we need interdisciplinary collaboration between science of disaster medicine, regional administrative sociology, satellite communication technology and systems engineering experts. Communication of emergency information was limited causing a serious delay in the initial rescue and medical operation. For the emergency rescue and medical operations, the most important thing is to identify the number of casualties, their locations and status and to dispatch doctors and rescue workers from multiple organizations. In the case of the Tohoku earthquake, the dispatching mechanism and/or decision support system did not exist to allocate the appropriate number of doctors and locate disaster victims. Even though the doctors and rescue workers from multiple government organizations have their own dedicated communication system, the systems are not interoperable.

Keywords: crisis management, disaster mitigation, messing, MGRS, military grid reference system, satellite communication system

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1127 Social Ties and Integration of the Offenders

Authors: C. Chaillou

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The dominant theoretical approaches in Criminology are interested in the phenomenon of delinquency from the question of the management of the risks incurred by the population. Thus, this research advocate prevention of this phenomenon by a tracking of early disorders in children. Treatments offered to rely on medical research (genetics and biology are cited as a reference) and assuming a high naturalization of delinquent behaviour. Programs that are offered also reduce to a recovery of the deviant behaviour, and rely readily on behavioral guidelines, with an educational grant. Public policy then rely on these programs to prevent unwanted behaviour within a given population and to reduce the risk for the company. This is the case in France, with national institutes making (juvenile) violence a public health problem. We consider that other approaches, issues of sociology, are more relevant to the treatment of offenders. These approaches are moving, not on its prevention, but from its inputs and its outputs. Several modalities of entries and exits of delinquency can find and analyze in terms of process. We assume that there is a dynamic inherent in the individual and it is important to take into account the environment of the offender. These different types of processes can illuminate from the derived work of the Psychoanalytical psychopathology and lead to more effective treatment of delinquent acts. Psychoanalytic concepts have enabled us to offer a new look means to treat delinquency, placing several types of relationship with the other and relating to the clinical structure and the uniqueness of the case, we have been able to enter subjective and unconscious logics at work in delinquent acts. This research has facilitated the reduction of these types of subjective responses and proposed others, opening to a reintegration of offenders in a social link them being more favourable and in a longer term.

Keywords: delinquency, insertion, social link, unconscious

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1126 The Optimization of TICSI in the Convergence Mechanism of Urban Water Management

Authors: M. Macchiaroli, L. Dolores, V. Pellecchia

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With the recent Resolution n. 580/2019/R/idr, the Italian Regulatory Authority for Energy, Networks, and Environment (ARERA) for the Urban Water Management has introduced, for water managements characterized by persistent critical issues regarding the planning and organization of the service and the implementation of the necessary interventions for the improvement of infrastructures and management quality, a new mechanism for determining tariffs: the regulatory scheme of Convergence. The aim of this regulatory scheme is the overcoming of the Water Service Divided in order to improve the stability of the local institutional structures, technical quality, contractual quality, as well as in order to guarantee transparency elements for Users of the Service. Convergence scheme presupposes the identification of the cost items to be considered in the tariff in parametric terms, distinguishing three possible cases according to the type of historical data available to the Manager. The study, in particular, focuses on operations that have neither data on tariff revenues nor data on operating costs. In this case, the Manager's Constraint on Revenues (VRG) is estimated on the basis of a reference benchmark and becomes the starting point for defining the structure of the tariff classes, in compliance with the TICSI provisions (Integrated Text for tariff classes, ARERA's Resolution n. 665/2017/R/idr). The proposed model implements the recent studies on optimization models for the definition of tariff classes in compliance with the constraints dictated by TICSI in the application of the Convergence mechanism, proposing itself as a support tool for the Managers and the local water regulatory Authority in the decision-making process.

Keywords: decision-making process, economic evaluation of projects, optimizing tools, urban water management, water tariff

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1125 Mitochondrial DNA Copy Number in Egyptian Patients with Hepatitis C Virus Related Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Authors: Doaa Hashad, Amany Elyamany, Perihan Salem

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Introduction: Hepatitis C virus infection (HCV) constitutes a serious dilemma that has an impact on the health of millions of Egyptians. Hepatitis C virus related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCV-HCC) is a crucial consequence of HCV that represents the third cause of cancer-related deaths worldwide. Aim of the study: assess the use of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) content as a non-invasive molecular biomarker in hepatitis c virus related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCV-HCC). Methods: A total of 135 participants were enrolled in the study. Volunteers were assigned to one of three groups equally; a group of HCV related cirrhosis (HCV-cirrhosis), a group of HCV-HCC and a control group of age- and sex- matched healthy volunteers with no evidence of liver disease. mtDNA was determined using a quantitative real-time PCR technique. Results: mtDNA content was lowest in HCV-HCC cases. No statistically significant difference was observed between the group of HCV-cirrhosis and the control group as regards mtDNA level. HCC patients with multi-centric hepatic lesions had significantly lower mtDNA content. On using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, a cutoff of 34 was assigned for mtDNA content to distinguish between HCV-HCC and HCV-cirrhosis patients who are not yet complicated by malignancy. Lower mtDNA was associated with greater HCC risk on using healthy controls, HCV-cirrhosis, or combining both groups as a reference group. Conclusions: mtDNA content might constitute a non-invasive molecular biomarker that reflects tumor burden in HCV-HCC cases and could be used as a predictor of HCC risk in patients of HCV-cirrhosis. In addition, the non significant difference of mtDNA level between HCV-cirrhosis patients and healthy controls could eliminate the grey zone created by the use of AFP in some cirrhotic patients.

Keywords: DNA copy number, HCC, HCV, mitochondrial

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1124 Walking Cadence to Attain a Minimum of Moderate Aerobic Intensity in People at Risk of Cardiovascular Diseases

Authors: Fagner O. Serrano, Danielle R. Bouchard, Todd A. Duhame

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Walking cadence (steps/min) is an effective way to prescribe exercise so an individual can reach a moderate intensity, which is recommended to optimize health benefits. To our knowledge, there is no study on the required walking cadence to reach a moderate intensity for people that present chronic conditions or risk factors for chronic conditions such as Cardiovascular Diseases (CVD). The objectives of this study were: 1- to identify the walking cadence needed for people at risk of CVD to a reach moderate intensity, and 2- to develop and test an equation using clinical variables to help professionals working with individuals at risk of CVD to estimate the walking cadence needed to reach moderate intensity. Ninety-one people presenting a minimum of two risk factors for CVD completed a medically supervised graded exercise test to assess maximum oxygen consumption at the first visit. The last visit consisted of recording walking cadence using a foot pod Garmin FR-60 and a Polar heart rate monitor, aiming to get participants to reach 40% of their maximal oxygen consumption using a portable metabolic cart on an indoor flat surface. The equation to predict the walking cadence needed to reach moderate intensity in this sample was developed as follows: The sample was randomly split in half and the equation was developed with one half of the participants, and validated using the other half. Body mass index, height, stride length, leg height, body weight, fitness level (VO2max), and self-selected cadence (over 200 meters) were measured using objective measured. Mean walking cadence to reach moderate intensity for people age 64.3 ± 10.3 years old at risk of CVD was 115.8  10.3 steps per minute. Body mass index, height, body weight, fitness level, and self-selected cadence were associated with walking cadence at moderate intensity when evaluated in bivariate analyses (r ranging from 0.22 to 0.52; all P values ≤0.05). Using linear regression analysis including all clinical variables associated in the bivariate analyses, body weight was the significant predictor of walking cadence for reaching a moderate intensity (ß=0.24; P=.018) explaining 13% of walking cadence to reach moderate intensity. The regression model created was Y = 134.4-0.24 X body weight (kg).Our findings suggest that people presenting two or more risk factors for CVD are reaching moderate intensity while walking at a cadence above the one officially recommended (116 steps per minute vs. 100 steps per minute) for healthy adults.

Keywords: cardiovascular disease, moderate intensity, older adults, walking cadence

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1123 The Effects of Social Media on the Dreams of Preadolescent Girls

Authors: Saveria Capecchi

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The aim of the quali-quantitative research conducted in the spring of 2021 (still in the midst of the Covid-19 emergency) was to analyze the relationship between the imaginary of 142 girls aged 10-12 from two Italian cities in the Emilia-Romagna region (the capital, Bologna, and Parma) and the influence that various socialization agents can have on it, with particular attention to social media. In order to investigate the relationship between imagination and media, two tools were used: first, the girls wrote an essay in class about their future lives, imagining waking up one morning as a thirty-year-old adults. Six types of "dreams" reflecting the values and lifestyles characteristic of contemporary Italian society emerged. Additionally, the girls completed a questionnaire on their leisure time and, in particular, media consumption aimed at identifying their favorite characters. The results provided insights into understanding the reference values and lifestyles that define their subculture (they belong to the so-called Generation Z). Another interesting aspect of this research is the possibility of comparing the results with those of a similar study on preadolescent imaginary conducted in 1995, involving 292 girls from Milan and Bologna, belonging to the Millennial generation. The narratives about the imagined adult life reflect some crucial changes undergone by Italian society in a quarter of a century: there are advancements towards gender equality, and the imagined family is increasingly detached from tradition. There is a more persistent dream of a life marked by beauty, wealth, and fame, while at the same time, there is a greater social commitment, from solidarity with marginalized people to environmentalism. Furthermore, the mentioned new digital and robotic professions will project us into the near future.

Keywords: gender equality, gender stereotypes, imaginary, preadolescents, social media

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1122 Analysis study According Some of Physical and Mechanical Variables for Joint Wrist Injury

Authors: Nabeel Abdulkadhim Athab

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The purpose of this research is to conduct a comparative study according analysis of programmed to some of physical and mechanical variables for joint wrist injury. As it can be through this research to distinguish between the amount of variation in the work of the joint after sample underwent rehabilitation program to improve the effectiveness of the joint and naturally restore its effectiveness. Supposed researcher that there is statistically significant differences between the results of the tests pre and post the members research sample, as a result of submission the sample to the program of rehabilitation, which led to the development of muscle activity that are working on wrist joint and this is what led to note the differences between the results of the tests pre and post. The researcher used the descriptive method. The research sample included (6) of injured players in the wrist joint, as the average age (21.68) and standard deviation (1.13) either length average (178cm) and standard deviation (2.08). And the sample as evidenced homogeneous among themselves. And where the data were collected, introduced in program for statistical processing to get to the most important conclusions and recommendations and that the most important: 1-The commitment of the sample program the qualifying process variables studied in the search for the heterogeneity of study activity and effectiveness of wrist joint for injured players. 2-The analysis programmed a high accuracy in the measurement of the research variables, and which led to the possibility of discrimination into account differences in motor ability camel and injured in the wrist joint. To search recommendations including: 1-The use of computer systems in the scientific research for the possibility of obtaining accurate research results. 2-Programming exercises rehabilitation according to an expert system for possible use by patients without reference to the person processor.

Keywords: analysis of joint wrist injury, physical and mechanical variables, wrist joint, wrist injury

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1121 Radiation Dose and Associated Exposure Parameters in Selected MDCT Scanners in Multiphase Scan of Abdomen-Pelvic Region: A Clinical Study

Authors: P. Sathyathas, H. M. I. S. W. Herath, T. Amalraj, U. J. M. A. L. Jayasinghe

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Over two thirds of medical radiation can now be attributed to Computed Tomography (CT). There is little information on amount of radiation received from multiphase CT scan of abdomen- pelvic region in clinical practice. We sought to estimate the radiation dose and associated exposure parameters in the multiphase abdomen - pelvic scan of Multideteror Computed Tomography (MDCT) studies in clinical practice. This was a retrospective cross sectional studies describing radiation dose associated with main exposure parameters in diagnostic multiphase abdomen - pelvic scans performed on 152 consecutive patients by two different sixteen slice CT scanners. Patient information, exposure parameters of CTDI (volume), DLP, kVp, mAs and pitch were recorded for every phases of abdomen- a pelvic study from dose report of MDCT scanners (MDCTs). Age of patients range from 14 years to 87 years in both MDCT scanners. Overall CTDI (volume) median was 63.8 (±10.4) mGy for a multiphase abdominal-pelvic scan with scanner A while it was 35.4 (±15.6) mGy for scanner B. Patients' effective dose for multiphase abdomen - pelvic CT scan range from 8.2 mSv to 58 mSv. Median effective dose for patients, who underwent multiphase abdomen- pelvis scan with scanner A and B were 38.5 (± 8.2) mSv and 21.3 (± 8.6) mSv respectively. Median value of exposure parameters of mAs, kVp and pitch, were 150 (±29.7), 130 (±15.3) and 1.3 (±0.1) respectively in scanner A. In scanner B; they were 60 (±14.5), 120 and 1. The median effective dose for patients between multiphase abdomen-pelvic scan of both MDCT, a significant different (P<0.05) was observed. Multiphase abdomen – pelvic scan of clinical study shows significant different of effective dose with reference level of phantom studies (8-14mSv) and it depends on the type of vendors.

Keywords: abdomen-pelvic region, computed tomography, exposure parameters, radiation dose

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1120 Environmental Degradation and Globalization with Special Reference to Developing Economics

Authors: Indira Sinha

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According to the Oxford Advanced Learner's English Dictionary of Current English, environment is the complex of physical, chemical and biotic factors that act upon an organism or an ecological community and ultimately determines its form and survival. It is defined as conditions and circumstances which are affecting people's lives. The meaning of environmental degradation is the degradation of the environment through depletion of resources such as air, water and soil and the destruction of ecosystems and extinction of wildlife. Globalization is a significant feature of recent world history. The aim of this phenomenon is to integrate societies, economies and cultures through a common link of trading policies, technology and communication. Undoubtedly it has opened up the world economy at a very high speed but at the same time it has an adverse impact on the environment. The purpose of the present study is to investigate the impact of globalization on the environmental conditions. An overview of what the forces of globalization have in store for the environment with constructing large number of industries and destroying large forests lands will be given in this paper. The forces of globalization have created many serious environmental problems like high temperature, extinction of many species of plant and animal and outlet of poisonous chemicals from industries. The revelation of this study is that in case of developing economics these problems are more critical. In developing countries like India many factories are built with less environmental regulations, while developed economies maintain positive environmental practices. The present study is a micro level study which aims to employ a combination of theoretical, descriptive, empirical and analytical approach in addition to the time tested case method.

Keywords: globalization, trade policies, environmental degradation, developing economies, large industries

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1119 Prediction of Sepsis Illness from Patients Vital Signs Using Long Short-Term Memory Network and Dynamic Analysis

Authors: Marcio Freire Cruz, Naoaki Ono, Shigehiko Kanaya, Carlos Arthur Mattos Teixeira Cavalcante

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The systems that record patient care information, known as Electronic Medical Record (EMR) and those that monitor vital signs of patients, such as heart rate, body temperature, and blood pressure have been extremely valuable for the effectiveness of the patient’s treatment. Several kinds of research have been using data from EMRs and vital signs of patients to predict illnesses. Among them, we highlight those that intend to predict, classify, or, at least identify patterns, of sepsis illness in patients under vital signs monitoring. Sepsis is an organic dysfunction caused by a dysregulated patient's response to an infection that affects millions of people worldwide. Early detection of sepsis is expected to provide a significant improvement in its treatment. Preceding works usually combined medical, statistical, mathematical and computational models to develop detection methods for early prediction, getting higher accuracies, and using the smallest number of variables. Among other techniques, we could find researches using survival analysis, specialist systems, machine learning and deep learning that reached great results. In our research, patients are modeled as points moving each hour in an n-dimensional space where n is the number of vital signs (variables). These points can reach a sepsis target point after some time. For now, the sepsis target point was calculated using the median of all patients’ variables on the sepsis onset. From these points, we calculate for each hour the position vector, the first derivative (velocity vector) and the second derivative (acceleration vector) of the variables to evaluate their behavior. And we construct a prediction model based on a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) Network, including these derivatives as explanatory variables. The accuracy of the prediction 6 hours before the time of sepsis, considering only the vital signs reached 83.24% and by including the vectors position, speed, and acceleration, we obtained 94.96%. The data are being collected from Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC) Database, a public database that contains vital signs, laboratory test results, observations, notes, and so on, from more than 60.000 patients.

Keywords: dynamic analysis, long short-term memory, prediction, sepsis

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1118 Window Analysis and Malmquist Index for Assessing Efficiency and Productivity Growth in a Pharmaceutical Industry

Authors: Abbas Al-Refaie, Ruba Najdawi, Nour Bata, Mohammad D. AL-Tahat

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The pharmaceutical industry is an important component of health care systems throughout the world. Measurement of a production unit-performance is crucial in determining whether it has achieved its objectives or not. This paper applies data envelopment (DEA) window analysis to assess the efficiencies of two packaging lines; Allfill (new) and DP6, in the Penicillin plant in a Jordanian Medical Company in 2010. The CCR and BCC models are used to estimate the technical efficiency, pure technical efficiency, and scale efficiency. Further, the Malmquist productivity index is computed to measure then employed to assess productivity growth relative to a reference technology. Two primary issues are addressed in computation of Malmquist indices of productivity growth. The first issue is the measurement of productivity change over the period, while the second is to decompose changes in productivity into what are generally referred to as a ‘catching-up’ effect (efficiency change) and a ‘frontier shift’ effect (technological change). Results showed that DP6 line outperforms the Allfill in technical and pure technical efficiency. However, the Allfill line outperforms DP6 line in scale efficiency. The obtained efficiency values can guide production managers in taking effective decisions related to operation, management, and plant size. Moreover, both machines exhibit a clear fluctuations in technological change, which is the main reason for the positive total factor productivity change. That is, installing a new Allfill production line can be of great benefit to increasing productivity. In conclusions, the DEA window analysis combined with the Malmquist index are supportive measures in assessing efficiency and productivity in pharmaceutical industry.

Keywords: window analysis, malmquist index, efficiency, productivity

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1117 Preparation and Analysis of Chitosan-Honey Films for Wound Dressing Application

Authors: L. Sasikala, Bhaarathi Dhurai

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Increase in antibiotic resistance bacteria leads to the development of active wound dressings, which absorb any bodily fluid, evaporation of moisture at a certain rate and can be easily removed after healing. Natural materials like chitosan, herbs, and honey have number of active materials present in them to accelerate wound healing and to arrest wound in infections. Hence with the advantages of biomaterials, a film was prepared using chitosan and honey. There are a lot of practical considerations with respect to honey. Honey exerts many beneficial actions on the wound surface only when it remains. The attempts to hold honey on the surface of the wound remain a question because honey becomes a very runny liquid when it comes to body temperature. Hence, this research was focused on development of a new form of wound dressing, by holding honey on the wound surface in different form and also which has a combined effect of manuka (Leptospermum scoparium) honey and chitosan. Chitosan-honey film was prepared using casting technique. Films were prepared in different variations; with acetic acid and with lactic acid; with and without honey. In summary, the film produced from 2% chitosan- 1% lactic acid as a solvent, with 10% honey shows optimum inclined values in all the tests, like thickness, folding endurance, weight, water vapor transmission, tensile strength, swelling ratio and antimicrobial activity, with specific reference to wound dressings. The film has water vapor transmission of 1680 g/m²/day, water absorption of 225%, tensile strength of 39.1N/mm² and elongation of 50.3%. There is a notable inhibition zone of 29 mm against S. aureus and 24 mm against E. coli in the case of chitosan-lactic acid-honey film. The film also arrests, microbes transmitting from the outside environment to wound bed, which can be used as an effective wound dressing material.

Keywords: casting technique, chitosan, honey, film, wound dressings

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1116 Next Generation Sequencing Analysis of Circulating MiRNAs in Rheumatoid Arthritis and Osteoarthritis

Authors: Khalda Amr, Noha Eltaweel, Sherif Ismail, Hala Raslan

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Introduction: Osteoarthritis is the most common form of arthritis that involves the wearing away of the cartilage that caps the bones in the joints. While rheumatoid arthritis is an autoimmune disease in which the immune system attacks the joints, beginning with the lining of joints. In this study, we aimed to study the top deregulated miRNAs that might be the cause of pathogenesis in both diseases. Methods: Eight cases were recruited in this study: 4 rheumatoid arthritis (RA), 2 osteoarthritis (OA) patients, as well as 2 healthy controls. Total RNA was isolated from plasma to be subjected to miRNA profiling by NGS. Sequencing libraries were constructed and generated using the NEBNextR UltraTM small RNA Sample Prep Kit for Illumina R (NEB, USA), according to the manufacturer’s instructions. The quality of samples were checked using fastqc and multiQC. Results were compared RA vs Controls and OA vs. Controls. Target gene prediction and functional annotation of the deregulated miRNAs were done using Mienturnet. The top deregulated miRNAs in each disease were selected for further validation using qRT-PCR. Results: The average number of sequencing reads per sample exceeded 2.2 million, of which approximately 57% were mapped to the human reference genome. The top DEMs in RA vs controls were miR-6724-5p, miR-1469, miR-194-3p (up), miR-1468-5p, miR-486-3p (down). In comparison, the top DEMs in OA vs controls were miR-1908-3p, miR-122b-3p, miR-3960 (up), miR-1468-5p, miR-15b-3p (down). The functional enrichment of the selected top deregulated miRNAs revealed the highly enriched KEGG pathways and GO terms. Six of the deregulated miRNAs (miR-15b, -128, -194, -328, -542 and -3180) had multiple target genes in the RA pathway, so they are more likely to affect the RA pathogenesis. Conclusion: Six of our studied deregulated miRNAs (miR-15b, -128, -194, -328, -542 and -3180) might be highly involved in the disease pathogenesis. Further functional studies are crucial to assess their functions and actual target genes.

Keywords: next generation sequencing, mirnas, rheumatoid arthritis, osteoarthritis

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1115 Investigation and Analysis of Residential Building Energy End-Use Profile in Hot and Humid Area with Reference to Zhuhai City in China

Authors: Qingqing Feng, S. Thomas Ng, Frank Xu

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Energy consumption in domestic sector has been increasing rapidly in China all along these years. Confronted with environmental challenges, the international society has made a concerted effort by setting the Paris Agreement, the Sustainable Development Goals, and the New Urban Agenda. Thus it’s very important for China to put forward reasonable countermeasures to boost building energy conservation which necessitates looking into the actuality of residential energy end-use profile and its influence factors. In this study, questionnaire surveys have been conducted in Zhuhai city in China, a typical city in hot summer warm winter climate zone. The data solicited mainly include the occupancy schedule, building’s information, residents’ information, household energy uses, the type, quantity and use patterns of appliances and occupants’ satisfaction. Over 200 valid samples have been collected through face-to-face interviews. Descriptive analysis, clustering analysis, correlation analysis and sensitivity analysis were then conducted on the dataset to understand the energy end-use profile. The findings identify: 1) several typical clusters of occupancy patterns and appliances utilization patterns; 2) the top three sensitive factors influencing energy consumption; 3) the correlations between satisfaction and energy consumption. For China with many different climates zones, it’s difficult to find a silver bullet on energy conservation. The aim of this paper is to provide a theoretical basis for multi-stakeholders including policy makers, residents, and academic communities to formulate reasonable energy saving blueprints for hot and humid urban residential buildings in China.

Keywords: residential building, energy end-use profile, questionnaire survey, sustainability

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1114 Impacts of Hydrologic and Topographic Changes on Water Regime Evolution of Poyang Lake, China

Authors: Feng Huang, Carlos G. Ochoa, Haitao Zhao

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Poyang Lake, the largest freshwater lake in China, is located at the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin. It has great value in socioeconomic development and is internationally recognized as an important lacustrine and wetland ecosystem with abundant biodiversity. Impacted by ongoing climate change and anthropogenic activities, especially the regulation of the Three Gorges Reservoir since 2003, Poyang Lake has experienced significant water regime evolution, resulting in challenges for the management of water resources and the environment. Quantifying the contribution of hydrologic and topographic changes to water regime alteration is necessary for policymakers to design effective adaption strategies. Long term hydrologic data were collected and the back-propagation neural networks were constructed to simulate the lake water level. The impacts of hydrologic and topographic changes were differentiated through scenario analysis that considered pre-impact and post-impact hydrologic and topographic scenarios. The lake water regime was characterized by hydrologic indicators that describe monthly water level fluctuations, hydrologic features during flood and drought seasons, and frequency and rate of hydrologic variations. The results revealed different contributions of hydrologic and topographic changes to different features of the lake water regime.Noticeable changes were that the water level declined dramatically during the period of reservoir impoundment, and the drought was enhanced during the dry season. The hydrologic and topographic changes exerted a synergistic effect or antagonistic effect on different lake water regime features. The findings provide scientific reference for lacustrine and wetland ecological protection associated with water regime alterations.

Keywords: back-propagation neural network, scenario analysis, water regime, Poyang Lake

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