Search results for: uncertainties

Authors: Milad Nooshadi, Alessandro Manzardo

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CO₂ emissions in the atmosphere continue to rise, mostly as a result of the combustion of fossil fuels. CO₂ injection into the oceans and geological formation as a process of physical carbon capture are two of the most promising emerging strategies for mitigating climate change and global warming. The purpose of this research is to evaluate the two mentioned methods of CO₂ sequestration and to assess information on previous and current advancements, limitations, and uncertainties associated with carbon sequestration in order to identify possible prospects for ensuring the timely implementation of the technology, such as determining how governments and companies can gain a better understanding of CO₂ storage in terms of which media have the most applicable capacity, which type of injection has the fewer environmental impact, and how much carbon sequestration and storage will cost. The behavior of several forms is characterized as a near field, a far field, and a see-floor in ocean storage, and three medias in geological formations as an oil and gas reservoir, a saline aquifer, and a coal bed. To determine the capacity of various forms of media, an analysis of some models and practical experiments are necessary. Additionally, as a major component of sequestration, the various injection methods into diverse media and their monitoring are associated with a variety of environmental impacts and financial consequences.

Keywords: carbon sequestration, ocean storage, geologic storage, carbon transportation

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Authors: Jann-Eike Saathoff, Kirill Alexander Schmoor, Martin Achmus, Mauricio Terceros

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By using partial factors of safety, uncertainties due to the inherent variability of the soil properties and loads are taken into account in the geotechnical design process. According to the reliability index concept in Eurocode-0 in conjunction with Eurocode-7 a minimum safety level of β = 3.8 for reliability class RC2 shall be established. The reliability of the system depends heavily on the choice of the prespecified safety factor and the choice of the characteristic soil properties. The safety factors stated in the standards are mainly based on experience. However, no general accepted method for the calculation of a characteristic value within the current design practice exists. In this study, a laterally loaded monopile is investigated and the influence of the chosen quantile values of the deterministic system, calculated with p-y springs, will be presented. Monopiles are the most common foundation concepts for offshore wind energy converters. Based on the calculations for non-cohesive soils, a recommendation for an appropriate quantile value for the necessary safety level according to the standards for a deterministic design is given.

Keywords: asymptotic sampling, characteristic value, monopile foundation, probabilistic design, quantile values

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Authors: Shu Tao, Rong Wang, Huizhong Shen, Ye Huang

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High-resolution mapping of fuel combustion is essential for reducing uncertainties in assessments of greenhouse gases and air pollutant emissions. Such inventories provide valuable information for inferring carbon sinks, modeling pollutant transport, and developing control strategies. Previous inventories included only a few fuel types and were derived using national population proxies which may distort the geographical variation within countries. In this study, a global 0.1 degree by 0.1 degree geo-referenced inventory of fuel combustion (PKU-FUEL-2007) was developed for 64 fuel sub-types along with uncertainty analysis for the year 2007. Sub-national fuel consumption of large countries and major power-station locations were used. The disaggregation error can be reduced significantly by using the sub-nationally energy data, because the uneven distribution of per-capita fuel consumption within countries is taken into consideration. The PKU-FUEL was used to generate global emission inventories of CO2 (PKU-CO2-2007), polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PKU-PAHs-2007), and black carbons (PKU-BC-2007). Atmospheric transport modeling and expsoure assessment were conducted for BC and PAHs based on the inventory.

Keywords: fuel, emission, BC, PAHs, atmospheric transport, exposure

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Authors: Ormal Lishi

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This research presents a computationally efficient probabilistic method to assess the performance of compartmentation walls with similar Fire Resistance Levels (FRL) but varying complexity. Specifically, a masonry brick wall and a light-steel framed (LSF) wall with comparable insulation performance are analyzed. A Monte Carlo technique, employing Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS), is utilized to quantify uncertainties and determine the probability of failure for both walls exposed to standard and parametric fires, following ISO 834 and Eurocodes guidelines. Results show that the probability of failure for the brick masonry wall under standard fire exposure is estimated at 4.8%, while the LSF wall is 7.6%. These probabilities decrease to 0.4% and 4.8%, respectively, when subjected to parametric fires. Notably, the complex LSF wall exhibits higher variability in predicting time to failure for specific criteria compared to the less complex brick wall, especially at higher temperatures. The proposed approach highlights the need for Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to accurately evaluate the reliability and safety levels of complex designs.

Keywords: design complexity, probability of failure, monte carlo analysis, compartmentation walls, insulation

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Authors: Zine Souhila Rached, Mazari Benyounes Bouzid, Mohamed Amine, Allaoui Tayeb

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Wind energy has many advantages, it does not pollute and it is an inexhaustible source. However, its high cost is a major constraint, especially on the less windy sites. The purpose of wind energy systems is to maximize energy efficiency, and extract maximum power from the wind speed. In other words, having a power coefficient is maximum and therefore the maximum power point tracking. In this case, the MPPT control becomes important.To realize this control, strategy conventional proportional and integral (PI) controller is usually used. However, this strategy cannot achieve better performance. This paper proposes a robust control of a turbine which optimizes its production, that is improve the quality and energy efficiency, namely, a strategy of sliding mode control. The proposed sliding mode control strategy presents attractive features such as robustness to parametric uncertainties of the turbine; the proposed sliding mode control approach has been simulated on three-blade wind turbine. The simulation result under Matlab\Simulink has validated the performance of the proposed MPPT strategy.

Keywords: wind turbine, maximum power point tracking, sliding mode, energy conversion systems

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Authors: Georg Brunnthaller, Sandra Stein, Wilfried Sihn

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Logistics service providers are facing increasing volatility concerning future transport demand. Short-term planning horizons and planning uncertainties lead to reduced capacity utilisation and increasing empty mileage. To overcome these challenges, a model is proposed to continuously pre-plan future transport capacity in order to redesign and adjust the intermodal fleet accordingly. It is expected that the model will enable logistics service providers to organise more economically and ecologically sustainable transport chains in a more flexible way. To further describe such planning aspects, this paper gives a structured literature review on transport planning problems. The focus is on strategic and tactical planning levels, comprising relevant fleet-sizing-, network-design- and choice-of-carriers-problems. Models and their developed solution techniques are presented and the literature review is concluded with an outlook to our future research objectives

Keywords: choice of transport mode, fleet-sizing, freight transport planning, multimodal, review, service network design

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Authors: Sai Hung Cheung, Zhe Shao

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It is of our great interest to quantify the risk to structural dynamic systems due to earthquake-induced tsunamis in view of recent earthquake-induced tsunamis in Padang, 2004 and Tohoku, 2011 which brought huge losses of lives and properties. Despite continuous advancement in computational simulation of the tsunami and wave-structure interaction modeling, it still remains computationally challenging to evaluate the reliability of a structural dynamic system when uncertainties related to the system and its modeling are taken into account. The failure of the structure in a tsunami-wave-structural system is defined as any response quantities of the system exceeding specified thresholds during the time when the structure is subjected to dynamic wave impact due to earthquake-induced tsunamis. In this paper, an approach based on a novel integration of a recently proposed moving least squares response surface approach for stochastic sampling and the Subset Simulation algorithm is proposed. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is discussed by comparing its results with those obtained from the Subset Simulation algorithm without using the response surface approach.

Keywords: response surface, stochastic simulation, structural reliability tsunami, risk

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Authors: Mahmood Khalghollah, Mohammad Tavallaeinejad, Mohammad Eghtesad

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The method of Controlled Lagrangian is an energy shaping control technique for under actuated Lagrangian systems. Energy shaping control design methods are appealing as they retain the underlying nonlinear dynamics and can provide stability results that hold over larger domain than can be obtained using linear design and analysis. In the present study, controlled lagrangian is employed for designing a controller in an under actuated rotating flexible plate system. In the system of rotating flexible plate, due to its nonlinear characteristics and coupled dynamics of rigid and flexible components, controller design is a known challenge. In this paper, controller objectives are considered to be vibration reduction of flexible component and position control of the tip of the plate. To achieve the goals, a method based on both kinetic and potential energy shaping is introduced. The stability of the closed-loop system is investigated and proved around its equilibrium points. Moreover, the proposed controller is shown to be robust against disturbance and plant uncertainties.

Keywords: controlled lagrangian, underactuated system, flexible rotating plate, disturbance

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Authors: Georg Brunnthaller, Sandra Stein, Wilfried Sihn

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Transportation service providers are facing increasing volatility concerning future transport demand. Short-term planning horizons and planning uncertainties lead to reduced capacity utilization and increasing empty mileage. To overcome these challenges, a model is proposed to continuously pre-plan future transportation capacity in order to redesign and adjust the intermodal fleet accordingly. It is expected that the model will enable logistics service providers to organize more economically and ecologically sustainable transport chains in a more flexible way. To further describe these planning aspects, this paper gives an overview on transportation planning problems in a structured way. The focus is on strategic and tactical planning levels, comprising relevant fleet-sizing, service-network-design and choice-of-carriers-problems. Models and their developed solution techniques are presented, and the literature review is concluded with an outlook to our future research directions.

Keywords: freight transportation planning, multimodal, fleet-sizing, service network design, choice of transportation mode, review

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Authors: Paul M. H. J. Roekaerts

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In recent years, it became clear that much intensive care (ICU) survivors develop a post-intensive care syndrome (PICS) consisting of psychiatric, cognitive and physical problems for a prolonged period after their ICU stay. Physical inactivity and delirium during the ICU stay are the main determinants of the post-ICU PICS. This presentation will focus on delirium, its epidemiology, prevalence, effect on outcome, risk factors and the current standard of care for managing delirium. Because ICU delirium is a predictor of prolonged length-of-stay in the ICU and of death, the use of a delirium prevention bundle (DPB) becomes mandatory in every ICU. In this presentation, a DPB bundle will be discussed consisting of six components: pain, sedation, sleep, sensory and intellectual stimulation, early mobilization, and hydration. For every of the six components, what to do and what not to do will be discussed. The author will present his own institutional policy on pharmacological and non-pharmacological interventions in the management of delirium. The component ‘early mobilization’ will be discussed more in detail, as this component is extremely important in the prevention of delirium as well as in the prevention of the PICS. The author will conclude his presentation with the remaining areas of uncertainties/work and research to be done.

Keywords: delirium, delirium prevention bundle, early mobilisation in intensive care (ICU), post-intensive care syndrome (PICS)

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Authors: Ezgi Avci-Surucu, Doganbey Akgul

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Turkey’s energy reforms has achieved energy security through a variety of interlinked measures including electricity, gas, renewable energy and energy efficiency legislation; the establishment of an energy sector regulatory authority; energy price reform; the creation of a functional electricity market; restructuring of state-owned energy enterprises; and private sector participation through privatization and new investment. However, current strategies, namely; “Electricity Sector Reform and Privatization Strategy” and “Electricity Market and Supply Security Strategy” has been criticized for various aspects. The present paper analyzes the implementation of the aforementioned strategies in the framework of generation scheduling, transmission constraints, bidding structure and general aspects; and argues the deficiencies of current strategies which decelerates power investments and creates uncertainties. We conclude by policy suggestions to eliminate these deficiencies in terms of price and risk management, infrastructure, customer focused regulations and systematic market development.

Keywords: electricity markets, risk management, regulations, balancing and settlement, bilateral trading, generation scheduling, bidding structure

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Authors: Badreddine Chemali, Boualem Tiliouine

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This article presents the main results of a numerical investigation on the uncertainty of dynamic response of structures with statistically correlated random damping Gamma distributed. A computational method based on a Linear Statistical Model (LSM) is implemented to predict second order statistics for the response of a typical industrial building structure. The significance of random damping with correlated parameters and its implications on the sensitivity of structural peak response in the neighborhood of a resonant frequency are discussed in light of considerable ranges of damping uncertainties and correlation coefficients. The results are compared to those generated using Monte Carlo simulation techniques. The numerical results obtained show the importance of damping uncertainty and statistical correlation of damping coefficients when obtaining accurate probabilistic estimates of dynamic response of structures. Furthermore, the effectiveness of the LSM model to efficiently predict uncertainty propagation for structural dynamic problems with correlated damping parameters is demonstrated.

Keywords: correlated random damping, linear statistical model, Monte Carlo simulation, uncertainty of dynamic response

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Authors: Sreekanth T. G., Kishorekumar S., Sowndhariya Kumar J., Karthick R., Shanmugasuriyan S.

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Composites are increasingly being used in industries due to their unique properties, such as high specific stiffness and specific strength, higher fatigue and wear resistances, and higher damage tolerance capability. Composites are prone to failures or damages that are difficult to identify, locate, and characterize due to their complex design features and complicated loading conditions. The lack of understanding of the damage mechanism of the composites leads to the uncertainties in the structural integrity and durability. Delamination is one of the most critical failure mechanisms in laminated composites because it progressively affects the mechanical performance of fiber-reinforced polymer composite structures over time. The identification and severity characterization of delamination in engineering fields such as the aviation industry is critical for both safety and economic concerns. The presence of delamination alters the vibration properties of composites, such as natural frequencies, mode shapes, and so on. In this study, numerical analysis and experimental analysis were performed on delaminated and non-delaminated glass fiber reinforced polymer (GFRP) plate, and the numerical and experimental analysis results were compared, and error percentage has been found out.

Keywords: composites, delamination, natural frequency, mode shapes

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Authors: H. K. Esfahani, B. Datta

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Groundwater is one of the most important natural resources in many parts of the world; however it is widely polluted due to human activities. Currently, effective and reliable groundwater management and remediation strategies are obtained using characterization of groundwater pollution sources, where the measured data in monitoring locations are utilized to estimate the unknown pollutant source location and magnitude. However, accurately identifying characteristics of contaminant sources is a challenging task due to uncertainties in terms of predicting source flux injection, hydro-geological and geo-chemical parameters, and the concentration field measurement. Reactive transport of chemical species in contaminated groundwater systems, especially with multiple species, is a complex and highly non-linear geochemical process. Although sufficient concentration measurement data is essential to accurately identify sources characteristics, available data are often sparse and limited in quantity. Therefore, this inverse problem-solving method for characterizing unknown groundwater pollution sources is often considered ill-posed, complex and non- unique. Different methods have been utilized to identify pollution sources; however, the linked simulation-optimization approach is one effective method to obtain acceptable results under uncertainties in complex real life scenarios. With this approach, the numerical flow and contaminant transport simulation models are externally linked to an optimization algorithm, with the objective of minimizing the difference between measured concentration and estimated pollutant concentration at observation locations. Concentration measurement data are very important to accurately estimate pollution source properties; therefore, optimal design of the monitoring network is essential to gather adequate measured data at desired times and locations. Due to budget and physical restrictions, an efficient and effective approach for groundwater pollutant source characterization is to design an optimal monitoring network, especially when only inadequate and arbitrary concentration measurement data are initially available. In this approach, preliminary concentration observation data are utilized for preliminary source location, magnitude and duration of source activity identification, and these results are utilized for monitoring network design. Further, feedback information from the monitoring network is used as inputs for sequential monitoring network design, to improve the identification of unknown source characteristics. To design an effective monitoring network of observation wells, optimization and interpolation techniques are used. A simulation model should be utilized to accurately describe the aquifer properties in terms of hydro-geochemical parameters and boundary conditions. However, the simulation of the transport processes becomes complex when the pollutants are chemically reactive. Three dimensional transient flow and reactive contaminant transport process is considered. The proposed methodology uses HYDROGEOCHEM 5.0 (HGCH) as the simulation model for flow and transport processes with chemically multiple reactive species. Adaptive Simulated Annealing (ASA) is used as optimization algorithm in linked simulation-optimization methodology to identify the unknown source characteristics. Therefore, the aim of the present study is to develop a methodology to optimally design an effective monitoring network for pollution source characterization with reactive species in polluted aquifers. The performance of the developed methodology will be evaluated for an illustrative polluted aquifer sites, for example an abandoned mine site in Queensland, Australia.

Keywords: monitoring network design, source characterization, chemical reactive transport process, contaminated mine site

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Authors: Vahid Nademi

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In response to widely used wearable medical devices equipped with a continuous glucose monitor (CGM) and insulin pump, the advanced control methods are still demanding to get the full benefit of these devices. Unlike costly clinical trials, implementing effective insulin-glucose control strategies can provide significant contributions to the patients suffering from chronic diseases such as diabetes. This study deals with a key role of two-layer insulin-glucose regulator based on model-predictive-control (MPC) scheme so that the patient’s predicted glucose profile is in compliance with the insulin level injected through insulin pump automatically. It is achieved by iterative optimization algorithm which is called an integrated perturbation analysis and sequential quadratic programming (IPA-SQP) solver for handling uncertainties due to unexpected variations in glucose-insulin values and body’s characteristics. The feasibility evaluation of the discussed control approach is also studied by means of numerical simulations of two case scenarios via measured data. The obtained results are presented to verify the superior and reliable performance of the proposed control scheme with no negative impact on patient safety.

Keywords: blood glucose monitoring, insulin pump, predictive control, optimization

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Authors: Hatem Mrad, Mohamed Bouazara, Fouad Erchiqui

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Fatigue, is considered as one of the main cause of mechanical properties degradation of mechanical parts. Probability and reliability methods are appropriate for fatigue analysis using uncertainties that exist in fatigue material or process parameters. Current work deals with the study of the effect of the number and counting Rainflow cycle on fatigue lifetime (cumulative damage) of an upper arm of the vehicle suspension system. The major part of the fatigue damage induced in suspension arm is caused by two main classes of parameters. The first is related to the materials properties and the second is the road excitation or the applied force of the passenger’s number. Therefore, Young's modulus and road excitation are selected as input parameters to conduct repetitive simulations by Monte Carlo (MC) algorithm. Latin hypercube sampling method is used to generate these parameters. Response surface method is established according to fatigue lifetime of each combination of input parameters according to strain-life method. A PYTHON script was developed to automatize finite element simulations of the upper arm according to a design of experiments.

Keywords: fatigue, monte carlo, rainflow cycle, response surface, suspension system

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Authors: P. D. Pastuszak

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The present work is devoted to thermographic studies of curved composite panels (unidirectional GFRP) with subsurface defects. Various artificial defects, created by inserting PTFE stripe between individual layers of a laminate during manufacturing stage are studied. The analysis is conducted both with the use finite element method and experiments. To simulate transient heat transfer in 3D model with embedded various defect sizes, the ANSYS package is used. Pulsed Thermography combined with optical excitation source provides good results for flat surfaces. Composite structures are mostly used in complex components, e.g., pipes, corners and stiffeners. Local decrease of mechanical properties in these regions can have significant influence on strength decrease of the entire structure. Application of active procedures of thermography to defect detection and evaluation in this type of elements seems to be more appropriate that other NDT techniques. Nevertheless, there are various uncertainties connected with correct interpretation of acquired data. In this paper, important factors concerning Infrared Thermography measurements of curved surfaces in the form of cylindrical panels are considered. In addition, temperature effects on the surface resulting from complex geometry and embedded and real defect are also presented.

Keywords: active thermography, composite, curved structures, defects

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Authors: Thang Minh Le, Hadi Khabbaz

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The coefficient of consolidation is a parameter governing the rate at which saturated soil particularly clay undergoes consolidation when subjected to an increase in pressure. The rate and amount of compression in soil varies with the rate that pore water is lost; and hence depends on soil permeability. Over many years, various methods have been proposed to determine the coefficient of consolidation, cv, which is an indication of the rate of foundation settlement on soft ground. However, defining this parameter is often problematic and heavily relies on graphical techniques, which are subject to some uncertainties. This paper initially presents an overview of many well-established methods to determine the vertical coefficient of consolidation from the incremental loading consolidation tests. An array of consolidation tests was conducted on the undisturbed clay samples, collected at various depths from a site in Nakdong river delta, Busan, South Korea. The consolidation test results on these soft sensitive clay samples were employed to evaluate the targeted methods to predict the settlement rate of Busan clay. In relationship of time-displacement-velocity, a total of 3 method groups from 10 common procedures were classified and compared together. Discussions on study results will be also provided.

Keywords: Busan clay, coefficient of consolidation, constant rate of strain, incremental loading

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Authors: Chih-Jer Lin, Chun-Ying Lee, Ying Liu, Chiang-Ho Cheng

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The main objective of this article is to present the semi-active vibration control using an electro-rheological fluid embedded sandwich structure for a cantilever beam. ER fluid is a smart material, which cause the suspended particles polarize and connect each other to form chain. The stiffness and damping coefficients of the ER fluid can be changed in 10 micro seconds; therefore, ERF is suitable to become the material embedded in the tunable vibration absorber to become a smart absorber. For the ERF smart material embedded structure, the fuzzy control law depends on the experimental expert database and the proposed self-tuning strategy. The electric field is controlled by a CRIO embedded system to implement the real application. This study investigates the different performances using the Type-1 fuzzy and interval Type-2 fuzzy controllers. The Interval type-2 fuzzy control is used to improve the modeling uncertainties for this ERF embedded shock absorber. The self-tuning vibration controllers using Type-1 and Interval Type-2 fuzzy law are implemented to the shock absorber system. Based on the resulting performance, Internal Type-2 fuzzy is better than the traditional Type-1 fuzzy control for this vibration control system.

Keywords: electro-rheological fluid, semi-active vibration control, shock absorber, type 2 fuzzy control

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Authors: Pankaj Kumar

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Rapid global changes resulted in unfavorable hydrological, ecological, and environmental changes and cumulatively affected natural resources. As a result, the local communities become vulnerable to water stress, poor hygiene, the spread of diseases, food security, etc.. However, the central point for this vulnerability revolves around water resources and the way people interrelate with the hydrological system. Also, most of the efforts to minimize the adverse effect of global changes are centered on the mitigation side. Hence, countries with poor adaptive capacities and poor governance suffer most in case of disasters. However, several transdisciplinary numerical tools are well designed and are capable of answering “what-if questions” through scenario analysis using a system approach. This study has predicted the future water environment in Marikina River in the National Capital Region, Metro Manila of Philippines, using Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP), an integrated water resource management tool. Obtained results can answer possible adaptation measures along with their associated uncertainties. It also highlighted various challenges for the policy planners to design adaptation countermeasures as well as to track the progress of achieving SDG 6.0.

Keywords: water quality, Philippines, climate change adaptation, hydrological simulation, wastewater management, weap

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Authors: Zahra Abdolkarimi, Naser Zourikalatehsamad,

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Up to 40 years ago, after recognition of epilepsy, it was generally believed that these attacks occurred randomly and suddenly. However, thanks to the advance of mathematics and engineering, such attacks can be predicted within a few minutes or hours. In this way, various algorithms for long-term prediction of the time and frequency of the first attack are presented. In this paper, by considering the nonlinear nature of brain signals and dynamic recorded brain signals, ANFIS model is presented to predict the brain signals, since according to physiologic structure of the onset of attacks, more complex neural structures can better model the signal during attacks. Contribution of this work is the co-evolution algorithm for optimization of ANFIS network parameters. Our objective is to predict brain signals based on time series obtained from brain signals of the people suffering from epilepsy using ANFIS. Results reveal that compared to other methods, this method has less sensitivity to uncertainties such as presence of noise and interruption in recorded signals of the brain as well as more accuracy. Long-term prediction capacity of the model illustrates the usage of planted systems for warning medication and preventing brain signals.

Keywords: co-evolution algorithms, brain signals, time series, neural networks, ANFIS model, physiologic structure, time prediction, epilepsy suffering, illustrates model

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Authors: Giuseppe Timperio, Robert de Souza

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Logistics operations in the context of disaster response are characterized by a high degree of complexity due to the combined effect of a large number of stakeholders involved, time pressure, uncertainties at various levels, massive deployment of goods and personnel, and gigantic financial flow to be managed. It also involves several autonomous parties such as government agencies, militaries, NGOs, UN agencies, private sector to name few, to have a highly collaborative approach especially in the critical phase of the immediate response. This is particularly true in the context of L3 emergencies that are the most severe, large-scale humanitarian crises. Decision-making processes in disaster management are thus extremely difficult due to the presence of multiple decision-makers involved, and the complexity of the tasks being tackled. Hence, in this paper, we look at applying ICT based solutions to enable a speedy and effective decision making in the golden window of humanitarian operations. A high-level view of ICT based solutions in the context of logistics operations for humanitarian response in Southeast Asia is presented, and their viability in a real-life case about logistics network design is explored.

Keywords: decision support, disaster preparedness, humanitarian logistics, network design

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Authors: Bu Seog Ju, Ho Young Son, Yong Hee Ryu

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This study is focused on the evaluation of seismic fragility of multi-story piping system installed in critical structures, isolated with triple friction pendulum bearing. The concept of this study is to isolate the critical building structure as well as nonstructural component, especially piping system in order to mitigate the earthquake damage and achieve the reliable seismic design. Then, the building system and multi-story piping system was modeled in OpenSees. In particular, the triple friction pendulum isolator was accounted for the vertical and horizontal coupling behavior in the building system subjected to seismic ground motions. Consequently, in order to generate the seismic fragility of base-isolated multi-story piping system, 21 selected seismic ground motions were carried out, by using Monte Carlo Simulation accounted for the uncertainties in demand. Finally, the system-level fragility curves corresponding to the limit state of the piping system was conducted at each T-joint system, which was commonly failure points in piping systems during and after an earthquake. Additionally, the system-level fragilities were performed to the first floor and second floor level in critical structures.

Keywords: fragility, friction pendulum bearing, nonstructural component, seismic

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Authors: H. D. Arora, Anjali Dhiman

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Uncertainty is found everywhere and its understanding is central to decision making. Uncertainty emerges as one has less information than the total information required describing a system and its environment. Uncertainty and information are so closely associated that the information provided by an experiment for example, is equal to the amount of uncertainty removed. It may be pertinent to point out that uncertainty manifests itself in several forms and various kinds of uncertainties may arise from random fluctuations, incomplete information, imprecise perception, vagueness etc. For instance, one encounters uncertainty due to vagueness in communication through natural language. Uncertainty in this sense is represented by fuzziness resulting from imprecision of meaning of a concept expressed by linguistic terms. Fuzzy set concept provides an appropriate mathematical framework for dealing with the vagueness. Both information theory, proposed by Shannon (1948) and fuzzy set theory given by Zadeh (1965) plays an important role in human intelligence and various practical problems such as image segmentation, medical diagnosis etc. Numerous approaches and theories dealing with inaccuracy and uncertainty have been proposed by different researcher. In the present communication, we generalize fuzzy entropy proposed by De Luca and Termini (1972) corresponding to Shannon entropy(1948). Further, some of the basic properties of the proposed measure were examined. We also applied the proposed measure to the real life decision making problem.

Keywords: entropy, fuzzy sets, fuzzy entropy, generalized fuzzy entropy, decision making

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Authors: Majed Ahmadi

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In recent years, the high penetration of different types of renewable energy sources (RESs) has affected most of the available strategies. The main motivations behind the high penetration of RESs are clean energy, modular system and easy installation. Among different types of RESs, wind turbine (WT) is an interesting choice referring to the availability of wind in almost any area. The new technologies of WT can provide energy from residential applications to wide grid connected applications. Regarding the WT, advantages such as reducing the dependence on fossil fuels and enhancing the independence and flexibility of large power grid are the most prominent. Nevertheless, the high volatile nature of wind speed injects much uncertainty in the grid that if not managed optimally can put the analyses far from the reality.the aim of this project is scrutiny and to offer proper ways for renewing distribution networks with envisage the effects of wind power plants and uncertainties related to distribution systems including wind power generating plants output rate and consumers consuming rate and also decrease the incidents of the whole network losses, amount of pollution, voltage refraction and cost extent.to solve this problem we use dual point estimate method.And algorithm used in this paper is reformed bat algorithm, which will be under exact research furthermore the results.

Keywords: order renewal, wind turbines, bat algorithm, outspread production, uncertainty

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Authors: Aram Yakoby, Yossef H. Hatzor, Shmulik Pinkert

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This work presents an applied engineering method for evaluating the stability of underground openings under conditions of uncertainty. The developed method is demonstrated by a comprehensive parametric study on a case of large-diameter vertical borehole stability analysis, with uncertainties regarding the in-situ stress distribution. To this aim, a safety factor analysis is performed for the stability of both supported and unsupported boreholes. In the analysis, we used analytic geomechanical calculations and advanced numerical modeling to evaluate the estimated stress field. In addition, the work presents the development of a boundary condition for the numerical model that fits the nature of the problem and yields excellent accuracy. The borehole stability analysis is studied in terms of (1) the stress ratio in the vertical and horizontal directions, (2) the mechanical properties and geometry of the support system, and (3) the parametric sensitivity. The method's results are studied in light of a real case study of an underground waste disposal site. The conclusions of this study focus on the developed method for capturing the parametric uncertainty, the definition of critical geological depths, the criteria for implementing structural support, and the effectiveness of further in-situ investigations.

Keywords: borehole stability, in-situ stress, parametric study, factor of safety

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Authors: Heeyeul Kwon, Yongtae Park

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Despite the highly touted benefits, emerging technologies have unleashed pervasive concerns regarding unintended and unforeseen social impacts. Thus, those wishing to create safe and socially acceptable products need to identify such side effects and mitigate them prior to the market proliferation. Various methodologies in the field of technology assessment (TA), namely Delphi, impact assessment, and scenario planning, have been widely incorporated in such a circumstance. However, literatures face a major limitation in terms of sole reliance on participatory workshop activities. They unfortunately missed out the availability of a massive untapped data source of futuristic information flooding through the Internet. This research thus seeks to gain insights into utilization of futuristic data, future-oriented documents from the Internet, as a supplementary method to generate social impact scenarios whilst capturing perspectives of experts from a wide variety of disciplines. To this end, network analysis is conducted based on the social keywords extracted from the futuristic documents by text mining, which is then used as a guide to produce a comprehensive set of detailed scenarios. Our proposed approach facilitates harmonized depictions of possible hazardous consequences of emerging technologies and thereby makes decision makers more aware of, and responsive to, broad qualitative uncertainties.

Keywords: emerging technologies, futuristic data, scenario, text mining

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Authors: Santosh Kumar Suman, Vinod Kumar Giri

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The goal of this paper is to outline a speed controller of a DC motor by choice of a PID parameters utilizing genetic algorithms (GAs), the DC motor is extensively utilized as a part of numerous applications such as steel plants, electric trains, cranes and a great deal more. DC motor could be represented by a nonlinear model when nonlinearities such as attractive dissemination are considered. To provide effective control, nonlinearities and uncertainties in the model must be taken into account in the control design. The DC motor is considered as third order system. Objective of this paper three type of tuning techniques for PID parameter. In this paper, an independently energized DC motor utilizing MATLAB displaying, has been outlined whose velocity might be examined utilizing the Proportional, Integral, Derivative (KP, KI , KD) addition of the PID controller. Since, established controllers PID are neglecting to control the drive when weight parameters be likewise changed. The principle point of this paper is to dissect the execution of optimization techniques viz. The Genetic Algorithm (GA) for improve PID controllers parameters for velocity control of DC motor and list their points of interest over the traditional tuning strategies. The outcomes got from GA calculations were contrasted and that got from traditional technique. It was found that the optimization techniques beat customary tuning practices of ordinary PID controllers.

Keywords: DC motor, PID controller, optimization techniques, genetic algorithm (GA), objective function, IAE

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Authors: Gulsah Olgun, Ozgur Bozdag, Yildirim Ertutar

Abstract:

This paper mainly focuses on performance assessment of buildings by associating the damage level with the damage cost. For this purpose a methodology is explained and applied to the representative mid-rise concrete building residing in Izmir. In order to consider uncertainties in occurrence of earthquakes, the structural analyses are conducted for all possible earthquakes in the region through the hazard curve. By means of the analyses, probability of the structural response being in different limit states are obtained and used to calculate expected damage cost. The expected damage cost comprises diverse cost components related to earthquake such as cost of casualties, replacement or repair cost of building etc. In this study, inter-story drift is used as an effective response variable to associate expected damage cost with different damage levels. The structural analysis methods performed to obtain inter story drifts are response spectrum method as a linear one, accurate push-over and time history methods to demonstrate the nonlinear effects on loss estimation. Comparison of the results indicates that each method provides similar values of expected damage cost. To sum up, this paper explains an approach which enables to minimize the expected damage cost of buildings and relate performance level to damage cost.

Keywords: expected damage cost, limit states, loss estimation, performance based design

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Authors: Sofiane Bououden, Ilyes Boulkaibet

Abstract:

In this paper, a robust fault-tolerant predictive control (FTPC) strategy is proposed for systems with linear parameter varying (LPV) models and input constraints subject to sensor faults. Generally, virtual observers are used for improving the observation precision and reduce the impacts of sensor faults and uncertainties in the system. However, this type of observer lacks certain system measurements which substantially reduce its accuracy. To deal with this issue, a real observer is then designed based on the virtual observer, and consequently a real observer-based robust predictive control is designed for polytopic LPV systems. Moreover, the proposed observer can entirely assure that all system states and sensor faults are estimated. As a result, and based on both observers, a robust fault-tolerant predictive control is then established via the Lyapunov method where sufficient conditions are proposed, for stability analysis and control purposes, in linear matrix inequalities (LMIs) form. Finally, simulation results are given to show the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Keywords: linear parameter varying systems, fault-tolerant predictive control, observer-based control, sensor faults, input constraints, linear matrix inequalities

Procedia PDF Downloads 181