Search results for: forecast methods

Authors: Arfan Ali Nagra, Tariq Shahzad, Meshal Alharbi, Khalid Masood Khan, Muhammad Mugees Asif, Taher M. Ghazal, Khmaies Ouahada

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Gene selection is an essential step for the classification of microarray cancer data. Gene expression cancer data (DNA microarray) facilitates computing the robust and concurrent expression of various genes. Particle swarm optimization (PSO) requires simple operators and less number of parameters for tuning the model in gene selection. The selection of a prognostic gene with small redundancy is a great challenge for the researcher as there are a few complications in PSO based selection method. In this research, a new variant of PSO (Self-inertia weight adaptive PSO) has been proposed. In the proposed algorithm, SIW-APSO-ELM is explored to achieve gene selection prediction accuracies. This new algorithm balances the exploration capabilities of the improved inertia weight adaptive particle swarm optimization and the exploitation. The self-inertia weight adaptive particle swarm optimization (SIW-APSO) is used to search the solution. The SIW-APSO is updated with an evolutionary process in such a way that each particle iteratively improves its velocities and positions. The extreme learning machine (ELM) has been designed for the selection procedure. The proposed method has been to identify a number of genes in the cancer dataset. The classification algorithm contains ELM, K- centroid nearest neighbor (KCNN), and support vector machine (SVM) to attain high forecast accuracy as compared to the start-of-the-art methods on microarray cancer datasets that show the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Keywords: microarray cancer, improved PSO, ELM, SVM, evolutionary algorithms

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Authors: Jehad Al Dallal

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Class cohesion is a key object-oriented software quality attribute that is used to evaluate the degree of relatedness of class attributes and methods. Researchers have proposed several class cohesion measures. However, the effect of considering the special methods (i.e., constructors, destructors, and access and delegation methods) in cohesion calculation is not thoroughly theoretically studied for most of them. In this paper, we address this issue for three popular connectivity-based class cohesion measures. For each of the considered measures we theoretically study the impact of including or excluding special methods on the values that are obtained by applying the measure. This study is based on analyzing the definitions and formulas that are proposed for the measures. The results show that including/excluding special methods has a considerable effect on the obtained cohesion values and that this effect varies from one measure to another. For each of the three connectivity-based measures, the proposed theoretical study recommended excluding the special methods in cohesion measurement.

Keywords: object-oriented class, software quality, class cohesion measure, class cohesion, special methods

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Authors: Ali Noorian

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Crude oil contains various compounds of hydrocarbons but low concentrations of inorganic compounds or metals. Vanadium and Nickel are the most common metals in crude oil. These metals usually exist in solution in the oil and residual fuel oil in the refining process is condensed. Deleterious effects of metals in petroleum have been known for some time. These metals do not only contaminate the product but also cause intoxication and loss of catalyst and corrosion to equipment. In this study, removal of heavy metals and petroleum residues were investigated. These methods include physical, chemical and biological treatment processes. For example, processes such as solvent extraction and hydro-catalytic and catalytic methods are effective and practical methods, but typically often have high costs and cause environmental pollution. Furthermore, biological methods that do not cause environmental pollution have been discussed in recent years, but these methods have not yet been industrialized.

Keywords: removal, metal, heavy oil, nickel, vanadium

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Authors: Zhao Pengcheng, Yin Siyuan

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Fintech is the new hot topic of the 21st century, a discipline that combines financial theory with computer modelling. It can provide both digital analysis methods for investment banks and investment decisions for users. Given the variety of services available, it is necessary to provide a superior method of requirements elicitation to ensure that users' needs are addressed in the software development process. The accuracy of traditional software requirements elicitation methods is not sufficient, so this study attempts to use a multi-perspective based requirements heuristic framework. Methods such as interview and questionnaire combination, card sorting, and model driven are proposed. The collection results from PCA show that the new methods can better help with requirements elicitation. However, the method has some limitations and, there are some efficiency issues. However, the research in this paper provides a good theoretical extension that can provide researchers with some new research methods and perspectives viewpoints.

Keywords: requirement elicitation, FinTech, mobile application, survey, interview, model-driven

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Authors: Diqin Qi, Jiaming Li, Siman Li

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Based on the use of the three-point smoothing method for selectively processing original data columns, this paper establishes a group of grey GM(1,1) models to predict the concentration ranges of four major air pollutants in Shanghai from 2023 to 2024. The results indicate that PM₁₀, SO₂, and NO₂ maintain the national Grade I standards, while the concentration of PM₂.₅ has decreased but still remains within the national Grade II standards. Combining the forecast results, recommendations are provided for the Shanghai municipal government's efforts in air pollution prevention and control.

Keywords: atmospheric pollutant prediction, Grey GM(1, 1), model group, three-point smoothing method

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Authors: Aslı Günay Bulutsuz, Mehmet Emin Yurci

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Severe plastic deformation techniques are top-down deformation methods which enable superior mechanical properties by decreasing grain size. Different kind severe plastic deformation methods have been widely being used at various process temperature and geometries. Besides manufacturing advantages of severe plastic deformation technique, most of the types are being used only at the laboratory level. They cannot be adapted to industrial usage due to their continuous manufacturability and manufacturing costs. In order to enhance these manufacturing difficulties and enable widespread usage, different kinds of methods have been developed. In this review, a comprehensive literature research was fulfilled in order to highlight continuous severe plastic deformation methods.

Keywords: continuous manufacturing, severe plastic deformation, ultrafine grains, grain size refinement

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Authors: Daniel Tochwin

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Continuous improvement is an essential part of effective process performance management. In order to achieve continuous quality improvement, each organization must use the appropriate selection of tools and techniques. The basic condition for success is a proper understanding of the business need faced by the company and the selection of appropriate methods to improve a given production process. The main aim of this article is to analyze the methods of conduct which are popular in practice when implementing process improvements and then to determine whether the tested methods include repetitive systematics of the approach, i.e., a similar sequence of the same or similar actions. Based on an extensive literature review, 4 methods of continuous improvement of production processes were selected: A3 report, Gemba Kaizen, PDCA cycle, and Deming cycle. The research shows that all frequently used improvement methods are generally based on the PDCA cycle, and the differences are due to "(re)interpretation" and the need to adapt the continuous improvement approach to the specific business process. The research shows that all the frequently used improvement methods are generally based on the PDCA cycle, and the differences are due to "(re) interpretation" and the need to adapt the continuous improvement approach to the specific business process.

Keywords: continuous improvement, lean methods, process improvement, PDCA

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Authors: Fatemeh Faramarzi, Hosein Mahjoob

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Building dams on rivers for utilization of water resources causes problems in hydrodynamic equilibrium and results in leaving all or part of the sediments carried by water in dam reservoir. This phenomenon has also significant impacts on water and sediment flow regime and in the long term can cause morphological changes in the environment surrounding the river, reducing the useful life of the reservoir which threatens sustainable development through inefficient management of water resources. In the past, empirical methods were used to predict the sedimentation amount in dam reservoirs and to estimate its efficient lifetime. But recently the mathematical and computational models are widely used in sedimentation studies in dam reservoirs as a suitable tool. These models usually solve the equations using finite element method. This study compares the results from tow software packages, GSTARS4 & HEC-6, in the prediction of the sedimentation amount in Dez dam, southern Iran. The model provides a one-dimensional, steady-state simulation of sediment deposition and erosion by solving the equations of momentum, flow and sediment continuity and sediment transport. GSTARS4 (Generalized Sediment Transport Model for Alluvial River Simulation) which is based on a one-dimensional mathematical model that simulates bed changes in both longitudinal and transverse directions by using flow tubes in a quasi-two-dimensional scheme to calibrate a period of 47 years and forecast the next 47 years of sedimentation in Dez Dam, Southern Iran. This dam is among the highest dams all over the world (with its 203 m height), and irrigates more than 125000 square hectares of downstream lands and plays a major role in flood control in the region. The input data including geometry, hydraulic and sedimentary data, starts from 1955 to 2003 on a daily basis. To predict future river discharge, in this research, the time series data were assumed to be repeated after 47 years. Finally, the obtained result was very satisfactory in the delta region so that the output from GSTARS4 was almost identical to the hydrographic profile in 2003. In the Dez dam due to the long (65 km) and a large tank, the vertical currents are dominant causing the calculations by the above-mentioned method to be inaccurate. To solve this problem, we used the empirical reduction method to calculate the sedimentation in the downstream area which led to very good answers. Thus, we demonstrated that by combining these two methods a very suitable model for sedimentation in Dez dam for the study period can be obtained. The present study demonstrated successfully that the outputs of both methods are the same.

Keywords: Dez Dam, prediction, sedimentation, water resources, computational models, finite element method, GSTARS4, HEC-6

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Authors: Meriem Bahij, Ahmed Nafidi, Boujemâa Achchab, Sílvio M. A. Gama, José A. O. Matos

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Stochastic modeling concerns the use of probability to model real-world situations in which uncertainty is present. Therefore, the purpose of stochastic modeling is to estimate the probability of outcomes within a forecast, i.e. to be able to predict what conditions or decisions might happen under different situations. In the present study, we present a model of a stochastic diffusion process based on the bi-Weibull distribution function (its trend is proportional to the bi-Weibull probability density function). In general, the Weibull distribution has the ability to assume the characteristics of many different types of distributions. This has made it very popular among engineers and quality practitioners, who have considered it the most commonly used distribution for studying problems such as modeling reliability data, accelerated life testing, and maintainability modeling and analysis. In this work, we start by obtaining the probabilistic characteristics of this model, as the explicit expression of the process, its trends, and its distribution by transforming the diffusion process in a Wiener process as shown in the Ricciaardi theorem. Then, we develop the statistical inference of this model using the maximum likelihood methodology. Finally, we analyse with simulated data the computational problems associated with the parameters, an issue of great importance in its application to real data with the use of the convergence analysis methods. Overall, the use of a stochastic model reflects only a pragmatic decision on the part of the modeler. According to the data that is available and the universe of models known to the modeler, this model represents the best currently available description of the phenomenon under consideration.

Keywords: diffusion process, discrete sampling, likelihood estimation method, simulation, stochastic diffusion process, trends functions, bi-parameters weibull density function

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Authors: Nashrawan Naser Taha, Andrew M. Cox

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In a multi-cultural learning context, where ties are weak and dynamic, combining qualitative with quantitative research methods may be more effective. Such a combination may also allow us to answer different types of question, such as about people’s perception of the network. In this study the use of observation, interviews and photos were explored as ways of enhancing data from social network questionnaires. Integrating all of these methods was found to enhance the quality of data collected and its accuracy, also providing a richer story of the network dynamics and the factors that shaped these changes over time.

Keywords: mixed methods, social network analysis, multi-cultural learning, social network dynamics

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Authors: Meimei Zheng

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Product personalization could not only bring new profits to companies but also provide the direction of long-term development for companies. However, the characteristics of personalized product cause some new problems. This paper investigates how companies make decisions on the supply of personalized products when facing different customer attitudes to personalized product and service, constraints due to limited capacity and updates of personalized demand information. This study will provide optimal decisions for companies to develop personalized markets, resulting in promoting business transformation and improving business competitiveness.

Keywords: demand forecast updating, limited capacity, personalized products, optimization

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Authors: Lei Ren, Michael Hartnett, Stephen Nash

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The abundant measured surface current from HF radar system in coastal area is assimilated into model to improve the modeling forecasting ability. A simple sequential data assimilation scheme, Direct Insertion (DI), is applied to update model forecast states. The influence of Direct Insertion data assimilation over time is analyzed at one reference point. Vector maps of surface current from models are compared with HF radar measurements. Root-Mean-Squared-Error (RMSE) between modeling results and HF radar measurements is calculated during the last four days with no data assimilation.

Keywords: data assimilation, CODAR, HF radar, surface current, direct insertion

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Authors: Manideepa Saha, Jahnavi Chakrabarty

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Generalized Jacobi (GJ) and Generalized Gauss-Seidel (GGS) methods are most effective than conventional Jacobi and Gauss-Seidel methods for solving linear system of equations. It is known that GJ and GGS methods converge for strictly diagonally dominant (SDD) and for M-matrices. In this paper, we study the convergence of GJ and GGS converge for symmetric positive definite (SPD) matrices, L-matrices and H-matrices. We introduce a generalization of successive overrelaxation (SOR) method for solving linear systems and discuss its convergence for the classes of SDD matrices, SPD matrices, M-matrices, L-matrices and for H-matrices. Advantages of generalized SOR method are established through numerical experiments over GJ, GGS, and SOR methods.

Keywords: convergence, Gauss-Seidel, iterative method, Jacobi, SOR

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Authors: Alexander Gretchenko, Liudmila Goncharenko, Sergey Sybachin

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This article summarizes the history of the discovery of N.D. Kondratiev of large cycles of economic conditions, as well as the creation and justification of the theory of innovation-cyclical economic development of Kondratiev-Schumpeter. An analysis of it in modern conditions is providing. The main conclusion in this article is that in general terms today it can be argued that the Kondratiev-Schumpeter theory is sufficiently substantiated. Further, the possibility of making a forecast of the development of the economic situation in the direction of applying this theory in practice, which demonstrate its effectiveness, is considered.

Keywords: Kondratiev's big cycles of economic conjuncture, Schumpeter's theory of innovative economic development, long-term cyclical forecasting, dating of Kondratiev cycles

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Authors: Wojciech Dąbrowski, Joanna Bąk, Laurent Solliec

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Nowadays technical and technological progress and constant development of methods and devices applied to sanitary engineering is indispensable. Issues related to sanitary engineering involve flow measurements for water and wastewater. The precise measurement is very important and pivotal for further actions, like monitoring. There are many methods and techniques of flow measurement in the area of sanitary engineering. Weirs and flumes are well–known methods and common used. But also there are alternative methods. Some of them are very simple methods, others are solutions using high technique. The old–time method combined with new technique could be more useful than earlier. Paper describes substitute method of flow gauging (California pipe method) and proposal of modification of this method used for inclined pipe. Examination of possibility of improving and developing old–time methods is direction of the investigation.

Keywords: California pipe, sewerage, flow rate measurement, water, wastewater, improve, modification, hydraulic monitoring, stream

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Authors: Xiao Yihong, Li Zhixuan, Wong Kah Seng, Shen Xingcang

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Requirement Elicitation is one of the important factors in developing any new application. Most systems fail just because of wrong elicitation practice. As a result, developers always choose different methods in different fields to achieve optimal results. This paper analyses four cases to understand the effectiveness of different requirement elicitation methods in the field of mobile shopping applications. The elicitation methods we studied included interviews, questionnaires, prototypes, analysis of existing systems, focus groups, brainstorming, and so on. Through the research and analysis results, we ensured the need for a mixture of elicitation methods. Meanwhile, the method adopted should be determined according to the scale of the project and be operated in a reasonable order to ensure the high efficiency of requirement elicitation.

Keywords: requirements elicitation method, shopping, mobile application, software requirement engineering

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Authors: Milad Abbasi

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Carbon fiber-reinforced polymer (CFRP) composite structures are increasingly being utilized in the automotive industry due to their lightweight and specific energy absorption capabilities. Although it is impossible to predict composite mechanical properties directly using theoretical methods, various research has been conducted so far in the literature for accurate simulation of CFRP structures' energy-absorbing behavior. In this research, axial compression experiments were carried out on hand lay-up unidirectional CFRP composite tubes. The fabrication method allowed the authors to extract the material properties of the CFRPs using ASTM D3039, D3410, and D3518 standards. A neural network machine learning algorithm was then utilized to build a robust prediction model to forecast the axial compressive properties of CFRP tubes while reducing high-cost experimental efforts. The predicted results have been compared with the experimental outcomes in terms of load-carrying capacity and energy absorption capability. The results showed high accuracy and precision in the prediction of the energy-absorption capacity of the CFRP tubes. This research also demonstrates the effectiveness and challenges of machine learning techniques in the robust simulation of composites' energy-absorption behavior. Interestingly, the proposed method considerably condensed numerical and experimental efforts in the simulation and calibration of CFRP composite tubes subjected to compressive loading.

Keywords: CFRP composite tubes, energy absorption, crushing behavior, machine learning, neural network

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Authors: Sophia Hayes, Kenny L. Liang, Sahil Sharma, Austin Shema, Mahmoud Bader, Mohamed Elbarkouky

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Despite being one of the most significant economic contributors of the country, Canada’s construction industry is lagging behind other sectors when it comes to labor productivity improvements. The construction industry is very collaborative as a general contractor, will hire trade contractors to perform most of a project’s work; meaning low productivity from one contractor can have a domino effect on the shared success of a project. To address this issue and encourage trade contractors to improve their productivity tracking methods, an investigative study was done on the productivity views and tracking methods of various trade contractors. Additionally, an in-depth review was done on four standard tracking methods used in the construction industry: cost codes, benchmarking, the job productivity measurement (JPM) standard, and WorkFace Planning (WFP). The four tracking methods were used as a baseline in comparing the trade contractors’ responses, determining gaps within their current tracking methods, and for making improvement recommendations. 15 interviews were conducted with different trades to analyze how contractors value productivity. The results of these analyses indicated that there seem to be gaps within the construction industry when it comes to an understanding of the purpose and value in productivity tracking. The trade contractors also shared their current productivity tracking systems; which were then compared to the four standard tracking methods used in the construction industry. Gaps were identified in their various tracking methods and using a framework; recommendations were made based on the type of trade on how to improve how they track productivity.

Keywords: labor productivity, productivity tracking methods, trade contractors, construction

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Authors: Sajjad Ali

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The Quranic pedagogical methods don't imply that the Quran explicitly prescribes teaching methods. Instead, it acknowledges the inherent ways of learning and teaching that align with human nature, offering guidance in this direction. Qur'an briefly describes different angles of acquiring knowledge. Narrative, interrogative, question, analytical, poetic, comparative and critical methods of teaching are briefly described in the Holy Quran. The Muslim Ummah has a firm belief that the Qur'an is a comprehensive book which mentions every dry and wet, but this does not mean that the Qur'an is a manual book. This means that the Qur'an contains symbols and hints about everything. The fact that everything is mentioned in the Qur'an means that the Qur'an only provides guidance, while its interpretation requires contemplation.

Keywords: hadith, knowledge, reality, understanding

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Authors: M. V. A. Raju Bahubalendruni, Bibhuti Bhusan Biswal, B. B. V. L. Deepak

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Achieving an appropriate assembly sequence needs deep verification for its physical feasibility. For this purpose, industrial engineers use several assembly predicates; namely, liaison, geometric feasibility, stability and mechanical feasibility. However, testing an assembly sequence for these predicates requires huge assembly information. Extracting such assembly information from an assembled product is a time consuming and highly skillful task with complex reasoning methods. In this paper, computer aided methods are proposed to extract all the necessary assembly information from computer aided design (CAD) environment in order to perform the assembly sequence planning efficiently. These methods use preliminary capabilities of three-dimensional solid modelling and assembly modelling methods used in CAD software considering equilibrium laws of physical bodies.

Keywords: assembly automation, assembly attributes, assembly, CAD

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Authors: H. H. Goh, K. C. Goh, W. N. Z. S. Wan Sukri, Q. S. Chua, S. W. Lee, B. C. Kok

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Endowed of renewable energy sources (RES) are the advantages of ASEAN, but they are using a low amount of RES only to generate electricity because their primary energy sources are fossil and coal. The cost of purchasing fossil and coal is cheaper now, but it might be expensive soon, as it will be depleted sooner and after. ASEAN showed that the RES are convenient to be implemented. Some country in ASEAN has huge renewable energy sources potential and use. The primary aim of this project is to assist ASEAN countries in preparing the renewable energy and to guide the policies for RES in the more upright direction. The Green-Y model will help ASEAN government to study and forecast the economic concept, including feed-in tariff.

Keywords: ASEAN RES, Renewable Energy, RES Policies, RES Potential, RES Utilization

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Authors: Adil Rasheed, Mandar Tabib

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The paper describes the ability of a high-resolution Computational Fluid Dynamics model to predict terrain-induced turbulence and wind shear close to the ground. Various sensitivity studies to choose the optimal simulation setup for modeling the flow characteristics in a complex terrain are presented. The capabilities of the model are demonstrated by applying it to the Sandnessjøen Airport, Stokka in Norway, an airport that is located in a mountainous area. The model is able to forecast turbulence in real time and trigger an alert when atmospheric conditions might result in high wind shear and turbulence.

Keywords: aviation safety, terrain-induced turbulence, atmospheric flow, alert system

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Authors: Alexandros Pournaras, Anastasia Papadopoulou, Serafim Kontos, Anastasios Karakostas

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The air quality of modern cities is an important concern, as poor air quality contributes to human health and environmental issues. Reliable air quality forecasting has, thus, gained scientific and governmental attention as an essential tool that enables authorities to take proactive measures for public safety. In this study, the potential of Machine Learning (ML) models to forecast PM2.5 at local scale is investigated in the city of Thessaloniki, the second largest city in Greece, which has been struggling with the persistent issue of air pollution. ML models, with proven ability to address timeseries forecasting, are employed to predict the PM2.5 concentrations and the respective Air Quality Index 5-days ahead by learning from daily historical air quality and meteorological data from 2014 to 2016 and gathered from two stations with different land use characteristics in the urban fabric of Thessaloniki. The performance of the ML models on PM2.5 concentrations is evaluated with common statistical methods, such as R squared (r²) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), utilizing a portion of the stations’ measurements as test set. A multi-categorical evaluation is utilized for the assessment of their performance on respective AQIs. Several conclusions were made from the experiments conducted. Experimenting on MLs’ configuration revealed a moderate effect of various parameters and training schemas on the model’s predictions. Their performance of all these models were found to produce satisfactory results on PM2.5 concentrations. In addition, their application on untrained stations showed that these models can perform well, indicating a generalized behavior. Moreover, their performance on AQI was even better, showing that the MLs can be used as predictors for AQI, which is the direct information provided to the general public.

Keywords: Air Quality, AQ Forecasting, AQI, Machine Learning, PM2.5

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Authors: Daniil Karzanov

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This paper studies the effect of quarterly earnings reports on the stock price. The profitability of the stock is modeled by geometric Brownian diffusion and the Constant Elasticity of Variance model. We fit several variations of stochastic differential equations to the pre-and after-report period using the Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Grid Search of parameters method. By examining the change in the model parameters after reports’ publication, the study reveals that the reports have enough evidence to be a structural breakpoint, meaning that all the forecast models exploited are not applicable for forecasting and should be refitted shortly.

Keywords: stock market, earnings reports, financial time series, structural breaks, stochastic differential equations

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Authors: Syed Ahzam Tariq, Atharva Modi

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This paper presents a probabilistic analysis of the safety of water tube boilers using fault tree analysis (FTA). A fault tree has been constructed by considering all possible areas where a malfunction could lead to a boiler accident. Boiler accidents are relatively rare, causing a scarcity of data. The fuzzy approach is employed to perform a quantitative analysis, wherein theories of fuzzy logic are employed in conjunction with expert elicitation to calculate failure probabilities. The Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis (FFTA) provides a scientific and contingent method to forecast and prevent accidents.

Keywords: fault tree analysis water tube boiler, fuzzy probability score, failure probability

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Authors: Olga Bernikova, Oleg Redkin

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Globalization is a process of worldwide economic, political and cultural integration. Obviously, this phenomenon has both positive and negative issues. This article analyzes the impact of the modern process of globalization on the national traditions of language teaching and research. In this context, the problem of the ratio of local to global can be viewed from several sides. Firstly, since English is the language of over 80 percent of scientific and technical research worldwide, what should be the language of science in certain region? Secondly, language 'globality' is not always associated with English, because intercultural communications may have their regional peculiarities. For example, in the Arab world, Modern Standard Arabic can also be regarded as 'global' phenomenon, since the mother-tongue languages of the population are local Arabic dialects. In addition, the correlation 'local' versus 'global' is manifested not only in the linguistic sphere but also in the methodology used in language acquisition and research. Thus, the major principles of the Arabic philological tradition, which goes back to the 7th century, are still spread in the modern Arab world. At the same time, the terminology and methods of language research that are peculiar to this tradition are quite far from the issues of general linguistics that underlies the description of all the languages of the world. The present research relies on a comparative analysis of sources in Arabic linguistics, including original works in Arabic dating back to the 12th-13th centuries. As a case study, interaction of local and global is also considered on the example of the Arabic teaching and research in Russia. Speaking about the correlation between local and global it is possible to forecast development of two parallel tendencies: the spread of the phenomena of globalization on one hand, and local implementation of a language policy aimed at preserving native languages, including Arabic, on the other.

Keywords: Arabic, global, language, local, tradition

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Authors: Ella Tyuryumina, Alexey Neznanov

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This study is an attempt to obtain reliable data on the natural history of breast cancer growth. We analyze the opportunities for using classical mathematical models (exponential and logistic tumor growth models, Gompertz and von Bertalanffy tumor growth models) to try to describe growth of the primary tumor and the secondary distant metastases of human breast cancer. The research aim is to improve predicting accuracy of breast cancer progression using an original mathematical model referred to CoMPaS and corresponding software. We are interested in: 1) modelling the whole natural history of the primary tumor and the secondary distant metastases; 2) developing adequate and precise CoMPaS which reflects relations between the primary tumor and the secondary distant metastases; 3) analyzing the CoMPaS scope of application; 4) implementing the model as a software tool. The foundation of the CoMPaS is the exponential tumor growth model, which is described by determinate nonlinear and linear equations. The CoMPaS corresponds to TNM classification. It allows to calculate different growth periods of the primary tumor and the secondary distant metastases: 1) ‘non-visible period’ for the primary tumor; 2) ‘non-visible period’ for the secondary distant metastases; 3) ‘visible period’ for the secondary distant metastases. The CoMPaS is validated on clinical data of 10-years and 15-years survival depending on the tumor stage and diameter of the primary tumor. The new predictive tool: 1) is a solid foundation to develop future studies of breast cancer growth models; 2) does not require any expensive diagnostic tests; 3) is the first predictor which makes forecast using only current patient data, the others are based on the additional statistical data. The CoMPaS model and predictive software: a) fit to clinical trials data; b) detect different growth periods of the primary tumor and the secondary distant metastases; c) make forecast of the period of the secondary distant metastases appearance; d) have higher average prediction accuracy than the other tools; e) can improve forecasts on survival of breast cancer and facilitate optimization of diagnostic tests. The following are calculated by CoMPaS: the number of doublings for ‘non-visible’ and ‘visible’ growth period of the secondary distant metastases; tumor volume doubling time (days) for ‘non-visible’ and ‘visible’ growth period of the secondary distant metastases. The CoMPaS enables, for the first time, to predict ‘whole natural history’ of the primary tumor and the secondary distant metastases growth on each stage (pT1, pT2, pT3, pT4) relying only on the primary tumor sizes. Summarizing: a) CoMPaS describes correctly the primary tumor growth of IA, IIA, IIB, IIIB (T1-4N0M0) stages without metastases in lymph nodes (N0); b) facilitates the understanding of the appearance period and inception of the secondary distant metastases.

Keywords: breast cancer, exponential growth model, mathematical model, metastases in lymph nodes, primary tumor, survival

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Authors: Soheila Sadeghi

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Accurate forecasting of project performance metrics is crucial for successfully managing and delivering urban road reconstruction projects. Traditional methods often rely on static baseline plans and fail to consider the dynamic nature of project progress and external factors. This research proposes a machine learning-based approach to forecast project performance metrics, such as cost variance and earned value, for each Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) category in an urban road reconstruction project. The proposed model utilizes time series forecasting techniques, including Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, to predict future performance based on historical data and project progress. The model also incorporates external factors, such as weather patterns and resource availability, as features to enhance the accuracy of forecasts. By applying the predictive power of machine learning, the performance forecasting model enables proactive identification of potential deviations from the baseline plan, which allows project managers to take timely corrective actions. The research aims to validate the effectiveness of the proposed approach using a case study of an urban road reconstruction project, comparing the model's forecasts with actual project performance data. The findings of this research contribute to the advancement of project management practices in the construction industry, offering a data-driven solution for improving project performance monitoring and control.

Keywords: project performance forecasting, machine learning, time series forecasting, cost variance, earned value management

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Authors: Sam Teek Ling, Norhashidah Hj. Mohd. Ali

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We investigate the formulation and implementation of new explicit group iterative methods in solving the two-dimensional Poisson equation with Dirichlet boundary conditions. The methods are derived from a fourth order compact nine point finite difference discretization. The methods are compared with the existing second order standard five point formula to show the dramatic improvement in computed accuracy. Numerical experiments are presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods.

Keywords: explicit group iterative method, finite difference, fourth order compact, Poisson equation

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Authors: Li-hsing Shih, Wei-Jen Hsu

Abstract:

Recently, the sale of electrical vehicles (EVs) has increased dramatically due to maturing technology development and decreasing cost. Governments of many countries have made regulations and policies in favor of EVs due to their long-term commitment to net zero carbon emissions. However, due to uncertain factors such as the future price of EVs, forecasting the future market share of EVs is a challenging subject for both the auto industry and local government. This study tries to forecast the market share of EVs using conjoint models and Monte Carlo simulation. The research is conducted in three phases. (1) A conjoint model is established to represent the customer preference structure on purchasing vehicles while five product attributes of both EV and internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEV) are selected. A questionnaire survey is conducted to collect responses from Taiwanese consumers and estimate the part-worth utility functions of all respondents. The resulting part-worth utility functions can be used to estimate the market share, assuming each respondent will purchase the product with the highest total utility. For example, attribute values of an ICEV and a competing EV are given respectively, two total utilities of the two vehicles of a respondent are calculated and then knowing his/her choice. Once the choices of all respondents are known, an estimate of market share can be obtained. (2) Among the attributes, future price is the key attribute that dominates consumers’ choice. This study adopts the assumption of a learning curve to predict the future price of EVs. Based on the learning curve method and past price data of EVs, a regression model is established and the probability distribution function of the price of EVs in 2030 is obtained. (3) Since the future price is a random variable from the results of phase 2, a Monte Carlo simulation is then conducted to simulate the choices of all respondents by using their part-worth utility functions. For instance, using one thousand generated future prices of an EV together with other forecasted attribute values of the EV and an ICEV, one thousand market shares can be obtained with a Monte Carlo simulation. The resulting probability distribution of the market share of EVs provides more information than a fixed number forecast, reflecting the uncertain nature of the future development of EVs. The research results can help the auto industry and local government make more appropriate decisions and future action plans.

Keywords: conjoint model, electrical vehicle, learning curve, Monte Carlo simulation

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