Search results for: decision%20making%20effectiveness

Authors: Nicholas Marinus Batt, Angus Radford, Khaled Saraya

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Pulmonary Embolus Severity Index (PESI) score is a well-validated decision-making score grading mortality rates (MR) in patients with a suspected or confirmed diagnosis of pulmonary embolism (PE) into 5 classes. Thirty and 90 days MR in class I and II are lower allowing the treatment of these patients as outpatients. In a London District General Hospital (DGH) with mixed ethnicity and high disease burden, we looked at MR at 1, 3, and 7 days of all PESI score classes. Our pilot study of 112 patients showed MR of 0% in class I, II, and III. The current study includes positive Computed Tomographic Scans (CT scans) for PE over the following three years (total of 555). MR was calculated for all PESI score classes at 1, 3 & 7 days. Thirty days MR was additionally calculated to validate the study. Our initial results so far are in line with our pilot studies. Further subgroup analysis accounting for the local co-morbidities and disease burden and its impact on the MR will be undertaken.

Keywords: Pulmonary Embolism (PE), Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (PESI) score, mortality rate (MR), CT pulmonary artery

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Authors: Fu Lin

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We consider the worst-case load-shedding problem in electric power networks where a number of transmission lines are to be taken out of service. The objective is to identify a prespecified number of line outages that lead to the maximum interruption of power generation and load at the transmission level, subject to the active power-flow model, the load and generation capacity of the buses, and the phase-angle limit across the transmission lines. For this nonlinear model with binary constraints, we show that all decision variables are separable except for the nonlinear power-flow equations. We develop an iterative decomposition algorithm, which converts the worst-case load shedding problem into a sequence of small subproblems. We show that the subproblems are either convex problems that can be solved efficiently or nonconvex problems that have closed-form solutions. Consequently, our approach is scalable for large networks. Furthermore, we prove the convergence of our algorithm to a critical point, and the objective value is guaranteed to decrease throughout the iterations. Numerical experiments with IEEE test cases demonstrate the effectiveness of the developed approach.

Keywords: load shedding, power system, proximal alternating linearization method, vulnerability analysis

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Authors: Betty Makena, Tsegaye Tadesse, Mark Svoboda

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Global warming has intensified the frequency and intensity of extreme climate disasters and led to unpredictable weather conditions. Consequently, rapid shifts between drought and floods, known as Drought-Flood Abrupt Alteration (DFAA), have become increasingly common. DFAA results in superimposed impacts of drought and floods within a short period, exacerbating the effects of the floods or drought event. Current disaster management plans often overlook DFAA events, as they primarily focus on either floods or drought. Therefore, effectively identifying DFAA events is crucial for developing effective mitigation strategies. This study aims to identify historical DFAA events in Kenya using the Long Cycle Drought-Flood Abrupt Alteration Index (LDFAI). The research will analyze the spatial distribution, temporal variation, and intensity of DFAA events from 1990 to 2023, as well as their socio-economic impacts. Understanding these events is important to develop more effective strategies to address the impacts of DFAA events. Findings from this study will inform decision making to develop coping strategies to mitigate the adverse effects of DFAA in Kenya.

Keywords: abrupt, alteration, drought, floods

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Authors: Stefanie Kasparek

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The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) is probably the most recognized international security organization. It is also profoundly misunderstood and undervalued in its effort to promote peace and security. With the rising involvement of non-state actors and the way states fight wars, international governance has become increasingly complex. However, the formal UNSC agenda has long remained static, reflecting states' unwillingness to entertain more conflicts. Nevertheless, resolutions remain the scholarly measure of states' interests and policies, neglecting the significant share of issues the Council entertains informally. This project builds on a rational institutionalism framework. It provides a systematic analysis of how and under what conditions states use informal governance instead of, or in combination with, formal rules at the agenda-setting stage of the policy process. Data for this project comes from elite interviews and a newly created dataset on governance choices. The results show that counter existing arguments, weaker states successfully circumvent formal institutional roadblocks and use informal governance mechanisms to pursue vital interests, thereby countering institutional restrictions and power asymmetries present informal governance settings.

Keywords: agenda-setting, decision-making, international governance, UNSC

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Authors: Dragana Calic

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The openness, availability and the sheer volume of big data have provided, what some regard as, an invaluable and rich dataset. Researchers, businesses, advertising agencies, medical institutions, to name only a few, collect, share, and analyze this data to enable their processes and decision making. However, there are important ethical considerations associated with the use of big data. The rapidly evolving nature of online technologies has overtaken the many legislative, privacy, and ethical frameworks and principles that exist. For example, should we obtain consent to use people’s online data, and under what circumstances can privacy considerations be overridden? Current guidance on how to appropriately and ethically handle big data is inconsistent. Consequently, this paper focuses on two quite distinct but related ethical considerations that are at the core of the use of big data for research purposes. They include empowering the producers of data and empowering researchers who want to study big data. The first consideration focuses on informed consent which is at the core of empowering producers of data. In this paper, we discuss some of the complexities associated with informed consent and consider studies of producers’ perceptions to inform research ethics guidelines and practice. The second consideration focuses on the researcher. Similarly, we explore studies that focus on researchers’ perceptions and experiences.

Keywords: big data, ethics, producers’ perceptions, researchers’ perceptions

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Authors: Ayman M. Mansour

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In this paper, we propose an intelligent system that is used for monitoring the health conditions of Patients. Monitoring the health condition of Patients is a complex problem that involves different medical units and requires continuous monitoring especially in rural areas because of inadequate number of available specialized physicians. The proposed system will Improve patient care and drive costs down comparing to the existing system in Jordan. The proposed system will be the start point to Faster and improve the communication between different units in the health system in Jordan. Connecting patients and their physicians beyond hospital doors regarding their geographical area is an important issue in developing the health system in Jordan. The propose system will provide an intelligent system that will generate initial diagnosing to the patient case. This will assist and advice clinicians at the point of care. The decision is based on demographic data and laboratory test results of patient data. Using such system with the ability of making medical decisions, the quality of medical care in Jordan and specifically in Tafial is expected to be improved. This will provide more accurate, effective, and reliable diagnoses and treatments especially if the physicians have insufficient knowledge.

Keywords: GSM, SMS, patient, monitoring system, fuzzy logic, multi-agent system

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Authors: Shihab-Uz-Zaman Shah, Sanjeeb Roy, Habiba Akter

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Keeping the high impact of the Ready-Made Garments (RMG) on the country’s economic growth in mind, this research paves a way for the implementation of Industry 4.0 in the garments industry of Bangladesh. At present, Industry 4.0 is a common buzzword representing the adoption of digital technologies in the production process to transform the existing industries into smart factories and create a great change in the global value chain. The RMG industry is the largest industrial sector of Bangladesh which provides 12.26% to its National GDP (Gross Domestic Product). The work starts with identifying possible enablers of Industry 4.0. To evaluate the enablers, a Multiple-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) procedure named Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process (FAHP) was used. A questionnaire was developed as a part of a survey for collecting and analyzing expert opinions from relevant academicians and industrialists. The responses were eventually used as the input for the FAHP which helped to assign weight matrices to the enablers. This weight matrix indicated the level of importance of these enablers. The full paper will discuss the way of a successful evaluation of the enablers and implementation of Industry 4.0 by using these enablers.

Keywords: enablers, fuzzy AHP, industry 4.0, RMG sector

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Authors: Mohammad Y. Badiee, Saeed Golestani, Mir Saman Pishvaee

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In recent years consumers and governments have been pushing companies to design their activities in such a way as to reduce negative environmental impacts by producing renewable product or threat free disposal policy more and more. It is therefore important to focus more accurate to the optimization of various aspect of total supply chain. Modeling a supply chain can be a challenging process due to the fact that there are a large number of factors that need to be considered in the model. The use of multi-objective optimization can lead to overcome those problems since more information is used when designing the model. Uncertainty is inevitable in real world. Considering uncertainty on parameters in addition to use multi-objectives are ways to give more flexibility to the decision making process since the process can take into account much more constraints and requirements. In this paper we demonstrate a stochastic scenario based robust model to cope with uncertainty in a closed-loop multi-objective supply chain. By applying the proposed model in a real world case, the power of proposed model in handling data uncertainty is shown.

Keywords: supply chain management, closed-loop supply chain, multi-objective optimization, goal programming, uncertainty, robust optimization

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Authors: T. J. Hasanova, C. N. Imamalieva

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The problem about the movement of the rigid cylinder keeping the vertical position under the influence of running superficial waves in a liquid is considered. The indignation of a falling wave caused by the presence of the cylinder which moves is thus considered. Special decomposition on a falling harmonious wave is used. The problem dares an operational method. For a finding of the original decision, Considering that the image denominator represents a tabular function, Voltaire's integrated equation of the first sort which dares a numerical method is used. Cylinder movement in the continuous environment under the influence of waves is considered in work. Problems are solved by an operational method, thus originals of required functions are looked for by the numerical definition of poles of combinations of transcendental functions and calculation of not own integrals. Using specificity of a task below, Decisions are under construction the numerical solution of the integrated equation of Volter of the first sort that does not create computing problems of the complex roots of transcendental functions connected with search.

Keywords: rigid cylinder, linear interpolation, fluctuations, Voltaire's integrated equation, harmonious wave

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Authors: Ahmed Amrani, Oussama Allali, Amira Ben Hamida, Felix Defrance, Stephanie Morland, Eva Pineau, Thomas Lacroix

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The energy planning process is a very complex task that involves several stakeholders and requires the consideration of several local and global factors and constraints. In order to optimize and simplify this process, we propose a tool-based iterative approach applied to district heating planning. We build our tool with the collaboration of a French territory using actual district data and implementing the European incentives. We set up an iterative process including data visualization and analysis, identification and extraction of information related to the area concerned by the operation, design of sustainable planning scenarios leveraging local renewable and recoverable energy sources, and finally, the evaluation of scenarios. The last step is performed by a dynamic digital twin replica of the city. Territory’s energy experts confirm that the tool provides them with valuable support towards sustainable energy planning.

Keywords: climate change, data management, decision support, digital twin, district heating, energy planning, renewables, smart city

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Authors: Eliane Abdo

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Small and medium sized firms “SMEs” play essential role in the countries’ economic development mainly in terms of production, employment and equitable distribution of income. For innovative SMEs, the investment in the human capital and in research and development are crucial to survive in a competitive environment. In this paper we perform a literature review to underline the financing difficulties and constraints which innovative SMEs face while investing in intangible assets: not only when defining amount of the investments but also while choosing its financing methods. Literature review revealed that in order to finance their intangible assets, SMEs rely in first on their internal financing: the availability of internal cash flows can then determine their investment’s decision. Moreover SMEs face difficulties to finance their intangibles by financial debts due to the uncertainty of future cash flow and the absence of physical guarantees; they will therefore go for the issuance of new shares as a second choice, since innovative companies have high opportunity of growth that attract new shareholders.

Keywords: small and medium sized firms, capital structure, intangible investment, financial constraints

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Authors: Sangeeta Palekar, Neeraj Rangwani, Akash Poddar, Jayu Kalambe

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The bio-medical analysis is an indispensable procedure for identifying health-related diseases like diabetes. Monitoring the glucose level in our body regularly helps us identify hyperglycemia and hypoglycemia, which can cause severe medical problems like nerve damage or kidney diseases. This paper presents a method for predicting the glucose concentration in blood samples using image processing and machine learning algorithms. The glucose solution is prepared by the glucose oxidase (GOD) and peroxidase (POD) method. An experimental database is generated based on the colorimetric technique. The image of the glucose solution is captured by the raspberry pi camera and analyzed using image processing by extracting the RGB, HSV, LUX color space values. Regression algorithms like multiple linear regression, decision tree, RandomForest, and XGBoost were used to predict the unknown glucose concentration. The multiple linear regression algorithm predicts the results with 97% accuracy. The image processing and machine learning-based approach reduce the hardware complexities of existing platforms.

Keywords: artificial intelligence glucose detection, glucose oxidase, peroxidase, image processing, machine learning

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Authors: S. Vavias, T. R. Brewer, T. S. Farewell

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Coastal floods have been identified as an important natural hazard that can cause significant damage to the populated built-up areas, related infrastructure and also ecosystems and habitats. This study attempts to fill the gap associated with the development of preliminary assessments of coastal flood vulnerability for compliance with the EU Directive on the Assessment and Management of Flood Risks (2007/60/EC). In this context, a methodology has been created by taking into account three major parameters; the maximum wave run-up modelled from historical weather observations, the highest tide according to historic time series, and the sea level rise projections due to climate change. A high resolution digital terrain model (DTM) derived from LIDAR data has been used to integrate the estimated flood events in a GIS environment. The flood vulnerability map created shows potential risk areas and can play a crucial role in the coastal zone planning process. The proposed method has the potential to be a powerful tool for policy and decision makers for spatial planning and strategic management.

Keywords: coastal floods, vulnerability mapping, climate change, extreme weather events

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Authors: Martin Lisý, Marek Baláš, Michal Špiláček, Zdeněk Skála

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This paper shortly describes biomass types and growing amount in the Czech Republic. The considerable part of this paper deals with energy parameters of the most frequent utilizing biomass types and results of their gasification testing. There was chosen sixteen the most exploited "Czech" woody plants and grasses. There were determinated raw, element and biochemical analysis, basic calorimetric values, ash composition and ash characteristic temperatures. After that, each biofuel was tested by fluid bed gasification. The essential part of this paper yields results of chosen biomass types gasification experiments. Partly, there are described an operating conditions in detail with accentuation of individual fuels particularities partly, there is summarized gas composition and impurities content. The essential difference was determined mainly between woody plants and grasses both from point of view of the operating conditions and gas quality. The woody plants was evaluated as more suitable fuels for fluid bed gasifiers. This results will be able to significantly help with decision which energy plants are suitable for growing or with optimal biomass-treatment technology selection.

Keywords: biomass growing, biomass types, gasification, biomass fuels

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Authors: Lee Da Hyun

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The purpose of this study is to explore the relation between the internal dynamics of standing committees and legislative productivity of the Korean National Assembly using statistical methods. Studies on legislation in South Korea have been largely revolved around political parties due to the uniqueness of its political context including strong party cohesion and party’s nomination right. However, as standing committees have been at the center of legislatures since the 6th National Assembly, there is a growing need for studying the operation and effectiveness of standing committees in legislation process. Thus, through panel data analysis for the sixteen standing committees across the four terms of the Korean National Assembly-from the 16th to the 19th-this article attempts to reveal that legislators’ bill passing rate is not a sole function of factors pertaining to political party as the existing studies have believed. By measuring the ideological distribution within a committee and the bill passing rate, this article provides differentiated interpretation from established theories of standing committees and presents compelling evidence describing complex interactions and independent operation of the standing committees with the subsequent legislative results.

Keywords: collective decision-making, lawmaking, legislation, political polarization, standing committees

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Authors: Y. Kong, I. Masud, M. H. Nyaso

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This paper seeks to examine consumers’ intention to adopt and use mobile payment method in Ghana. A conceptual framework was adopted from the extant literature using the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) and the Theory of Reasoned Action (TRA) as the theoretical bases. Data for the study was obtained from a sample of 425 respondents through online and direct surveys using structured questionnaire. Structural Equation Modeling was used to analyse the data through SPSS v.22 and SmartPLS v.3. Findings with regards to the determinants of mobile payment system adoption indicate that subjective norm, perceived ease of use, attitude, and perceived usefulness play active roles in consumers’ decision to adopt mobile payment system in Ghana. Also, perceived usefulness and perceived ease of use have a significant and positive influence on consumers’ attitude towards mobile payment adoption in Ghana. Further, subjective norm was found to influence perceived usefulness and perceived ease of use of mobile payment adoption in Ghana. The study contributes to literature on mobile payment system from developing country context. The study proffered some recommendations.

Keywords: consumer behaviour, mobile payment, subjective norm, theory of planned behavior

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Authors: Jianyong Xue, Olivier L. Georgeon, Salima Hassas

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During the initial phase of cognitive development, infants exhibit amazing abilities to generate novel behaviors in unfamiliar situations, and explore actively to learn the best while lacking extrinsic rewards from the environment. These abilities set them apart from even the most advanced autonomous robots. This work seeks to contribute to understand and replicate some of these abilities. We propose the Bottom-up hiErarchical sequential Learning algorithm with Constructivist pAradigm (BEL-CA) to design agents capable of learning autonomously and continuously through interactions. The algorithm implements no assumption about the semantics of input and output data. It does not rely upon a model of the world given a priori in the form of a set of states and transitions as well. Besides, we propose a toolkit to analyze the learning process at run time called GAIT (Generating and Analyzing Interaction Traces). We use GAIT to report and explain the detailed learning process and the structured behaviors that the agent has learned on each decision making. We report an experiment in which the agent learned to successfully interact with its environment and to avoid unfavorable interactions using regularities discovered through interaction.

Keywords: cognitive development, constructivist learning, hierarchical sequential learning, self-adaptation

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Authors: Festus Adedoyin, Nana Mbeah Otoo, Sofia Meacham

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Hypertension is one of the main health issues in Ghana, where prevalence is higher in rural than in urban areas. This is due to the challenges rural areas have in accessing technology and healthcare services for hypertension control. This study's goal is to create a digital healthcare solution to alleviate this inequality. Through an analysis of current technology and problems, using the ring onion methodology, the study determined the needs for the intervention and evaluated healthcare disparities. An online application with teleconsultation capabilities, reminder mechanisms, and clinical decision support is part of the suggested solution. In outlying areas, mobile clinics in containers with the required equipment will be established. Heuristic evaluation and think-aloud sessions were used to assess the prototype's usability and navigational problems. This study highlights the need to develop digital health interventions to help manage hypertension in rural locations and decrease healthcare disparities. To develop and improve digital healthcare solutions for rural areas worldwide and in Ghana, this study might be used as a tool for future research.

Keywords: digital health, health inequalities, hypertension management, rural areas

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Authors: Saba Shams Bidhendi, Steven Goh, Andrew Wandel

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The implementation of lean manufacturing initiatives has produced significant impacts in improving operational performance and reducing manufacturing wastes in the production process. However, selecting an appropriate set of lean strategies is critical to avoid misapplication of the lean manufacturing techniques and consequential increase in non-value-adding activities. To the author’s best knowledge, there is currently no methodology to select lean strategies that considers their impacts on manufacturing wastes and performance metrics simultaneously. In this research, a multi-objective methodology is proposed that suggests an appropriate set of lean initiatives based on their impacts on performance metrics and manufacturing wastes and within manufacturers’ resource limitation. The proposed methodology in this research suggests the best set of lean initiatives for implementation that have highest impacts on identified critical performance metrics and manufacturing wastes. Therefore, manufacturers can assure that implementing suggested lean tools improves their production performance and reduces manufacturing wastes at the same time. A case study was conducted to show the effectiveness and validate the proposed model and methodologies.

Keywords: lean manufacturing, lean strategies, manufacturing wastes, manufacturing performance, optimisation, decision making

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Authors: M. Macchiaroli, V. Pellecchia, L. Dolores

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The water supply for production users (craft, commercial, industrial), understood as the set of water supply and wastewater collection services becomes an increasingly felt problem in a water scarcity regime. In fact, disputes are triggered between the different social parties for the fair and efficient use of water resources. Within this aspect, the problem arises of the different pricing of services between civil users and production users. Of particular interest is the question of defining the tariff classes depending on consumption levels. If for civil users, this theme is strongly permeated by social profiles (a topic dealt with by the author in a forthcoming research contribution) connected with the inalienability of the right to have water and with the reconciliation of the needs of the weakest groups of the population, for consumers in the production sector the logic adopted by the manager may be inspired by criteria of greater corporate rationality. This work illustrates the Italian regulatory framework and shows an optimization model of tariff classes in the production sector that reconciles the public objective of sustainable use of the resource and the needs of a production system in search of recovery after the depressing effects caused by COVID-19 pandemic.

Keywords: decision making, economic evaluation, urban water management, water tariff

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Authors: Mohamed Haffar, Lombe Ngome Enongene, Mohammed Hamdan, Gbolahan Gbadamosi

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Despite the considerable body of literature investigating the influence of National Culture (NC) dimensions on consumer behaviour, there is a lack of studies comparing the influence of NC in Africa with Western European countries. This study is intended to fill the vacuum in knowledge by exploring how NC affects consumer buyer behavior in Nigeria and the United Kingdom. The primary data were collected through in depth, semi-structured interviews conducted with three groups of individuals: British students, Nigerian students in the United Kingdom, and Nigerian-based students. This approach and new frontier to analyze culture and consumer behaviour could help understand residual cultural threads of people (that are ingrained in their being) irrespective of exposure to other cultures. The findings of this study show that Nigerian and British consumers differ remarkably in cultural orientations such as symbols, values and psychological standpoints. This ultimately affects the choices made at every stage of the decision building process, and proves beneficial for international retail marketing.

Keywords: national culture, consumer behaviour, international business, Nigeria

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Authors: Osman Mohamed

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Over the past two decades, the global interest in the rights of persons with disabilities (PWDs) has increased that resulted in the United Nations Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities (UNCRPWDs). In this regard, the Gulf States have witnessed remarkable efforts towards strengthening the rights of persons with disabilities, including enactment of laws and establishment of specialized government councils for the Persons with Disabilities. This study aims to highlight the efforts of Shafallah Foundation in strengthening the rights of persons with disabilities as a model for the Gulf States. The researcher will conduct interviews with officials at Shafallah Foundation, some persons with disabilities who have benefited from the Foundation's programmes, officials from government agencies related to Persons with disabilities. The study is expected to reveal the role of Shafallah Foundation in implementing the UNCRPWDs through its programmes and activities as well as an overview of the situation of the rights of PWDs in the Gulf States. The study is important for stakeholders, decision-makers, policy-makers, academics, and the disability’s organizations.

Keywords: GCC, Gulf Cooperation Council, Shafallah Foundation, UNCRPWDs, United Nations Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities, PWDs, persons with disabilities

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Authors: Hamideh S. Shahidi

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This research examines destination image and its impact on tourist revisit intention. Destination images can evolve over time, depending on a number of factors. Due to the multidimensional nature of destination image, the full extent of what might influence that change is not yet fully understood. As a result, the destination image should be measured with a heavy consideration of the variables used. Depending on the time and circumstances, these variables should be adjusted based on the research’s objectives. The aim of this research is to evaluate the image of destinations that may be perceived as risky, such as Iran, from the perspective of European cultural travellers. Further to the goal of understanding the effects of an image on tourists’ decision-making, the research will assess the impact of destination image on the revisit intention using push and pull factors and perceived risks with the potential moderating effect of cultural contact (the direct interaction between the host and the tourists with different culture). In addition, the moderating effect of uncertainty avoidance on revisit intention after Iran’s crisis in 2022 will be measured. Furthermore, the level of uncertainty avoidance between gender and age will be compared.

Keywords: destination image, Iran’s 2022 crisis, revisit intention, uncertainty avoidance

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Authors: Fu-Pei Hsiao, Fung-Chung Tu, Chien-Kuo Chiu

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In this work, to develop a method for detailed assesses of post-earthquake seismic performance for RC buildings in Taiwan, experimental data for several column specimens with various failure modes (flexural failure, flexural-shear failure, and shear failure) are used to derive reduction factors of seismic capacity for specified damage states. According to the damage states of RC columns and their corresponding seismic reduction factors suggested by experimental data, this work applies the detailed seismic performance assessment method to identify the seismic capacity of earthquake-damaged RC buildings. Additionally, a post-earthquake emergent assessment procedure is proposed that can provide the data needed for decision about earthquake-damaged buildings in a region with high seismic hazard. Finally, three actual earthquake-damaged school buildings in Taiwan are used as a case study to demonstrate application of the proposed assessment method.

Keywords: seismic assessment, seismic reduction factor, residual seismic ratio, post-earthquake, reinforced concrete, building

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Authors: Basiliyos Tilahun Betru, Charles Awono Onana, Bernabe Batchakui

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Recommender systems have become increasingly popular in recent years, and are utilized in numerous areas. Nowadays many web services provide several information for users and recommender systems have been developed as critical element of these web applications to predict choice of preference and provide significant recommendations. With the help of the advantage of deep learning in modeling different types of data and due to the dynamic change of user preference, building a deep model can better understand users demand and further improve quality of recommendation. In this paper, deep neural network models for recommender system are evaluated. Most of deep neural network models in recommender system focus on the classical collaborative filtering user-item setting. Deep learning models demonstrated high level features of complex data can be learned instead of using metadata which can significantly improve accuracy of recommendation. Even though deep learning poses a great impact in various areas, applying the model to a recommender system have not been fully exploited and still a lot of improvements can be done both in collaborative and content-based approach while considering different contextual factors.

Keywords: big data, decision making, deep learning, recommender system

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Authors: Bidzina Matsaberidze, Anna Sikharulidze, Gia Sirbiladze, Bezhan Ghvaberidze

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In the modern world emergency management decision support systems are actively used by state organizations, which are interested in extreme and abnormal processes and provide optimal and safe management of supply needed for the civil and military facilities in geographical areas, affected by disasters, earthquakes, fires and other accidents, weapons of mass destruction, terrorist attacks, etc. Obviously, these kinds of extreme events cause significant losses and damages to the infrastructure. In such cases, usage of intelligent support technologies is very important for quick and optimal location-transportation of emergency service in order to avoid new losses caused by these events. Timely servicing from emergency service centers to the affected disaster regions (response phase) is a key task of the emergency management system. Scientific research of this field takes the important place in decision-making problems. Our goal was to create an expert knowledge-based intelligent support system, which will serve as an assistant tool to provide optimal solutions for the above-mentioned problem. The inputs to the mathematical model of the system are objective data, as well as expert evaluations. The outputs of the system are solutions for Fuzzy Multi-Objective Emergency Location-Transportation Problem (FMOELTP) for disasters’ regions. The development and testing of the Intelligent Support System were done on the example of an experimental disaster region (for some geographical zone of Georgia) which was generated using a simulation modeling. Four objectives are considered in our model. The first objective is to minimize an expectation of total transportation duration of needed products. The second objective is to minimize the total selection unreliability index of opened humanitarian aid distribution centers (HADCs). The third objective minimizes the number of agents needed to operate the opened HADCs. The fourth objective minimizes the non-covered demand for all demand points. Possibility chance constraints and objective constraints were constructed based on objective-subjective data. The FMOELTP was constructed in a static and fuzzy environment since the decisions to be made are taken immediately after the disaster (during few hours) with the information available at that moment. It is assumed that the requests for products are estimated by homeland security organizations, or their experts, based upon their experience and their evaluation of the disaster’s seriousness. Estimated transportation times are considered to take into account routing access difficulty of the region and the infrastructure conditions. We propose an epsilon-constraint method for finding the exact solutions for the problem. It is proved that this approach generates the exact Pareto front of the multi-objective location-transportation problem addressed. Sometimes for large dimensions of the problem, the exact method requires long computing times. Thus, we propose an approximate method that imposes a number of stopping criteria on the exact method. For large dimensions of the FMOELTP the Estimation of Distribution Algorithm’s (EDA) approach is developed.

Keywords: epsilon-constraint method, estimation of distribution algorithm, fuzzy multi-objective combinatorial programming problem, fuzzy multi-objective emergency location/transportation problem

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Authors: Dipti Govil, Nidhi Khosla

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Couple-level reports of contraception are important as wives and husbands may give different reports about contraceptive use. Using matched couple-data (N=62910), from India's NFHS–IV (2015-16), this paper examines concordance in spousal reports of current contraceptive use and its differentials. Reporting of contraceptive use was higher among wives (59%) than husbands (25%). Concordance was low; 16.5% of couples reported the use of the same method, while 21% reported the use of any method. There existed a huge denial from husbands on the use of female sterilization. Reconstruction of contraceptive use among men increased concordance by 10%. Multivariate analysis shows that concordance was low in urban and Southern India, among younger women and women with lower wealth-index. Men's control over household decision-making and negative attitudes towards contraception were associated with a lower concordance. Findings highlight the importance of using couple-level data to estimate contraceptive prevalence, the role of education programs to inculcate positive attitudes towards contraception, fostering gender equality, and involving men into family planning efforts. The results also raise the issue of data quality as the questions were asked differently from men and women, which might have contributed to wide discordance.

Keywords: concordance, contraceptive use, couple, female sterilisation, India

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Authors: Idris Elfeituri

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In the current study, energy and exergy analysis of a 65 MW steam power plant was carried out. This study investigated the effect of variations of overall conductance of the super heater on the performance of an existing steam power plant located in Derna, Libya. The performance of the power plant was estimated by a mathematical modelling which considers the off-design operating conditions of each component. A fully interactive computer program based on the mass, energy and exergy balance equations has been developed. The maximum exergy destruction has been found in the steam generation unit. A 50% reduction in the design value of overall conductance of the super heater has been achieved, which accordingly decreases the amount of the net electrical power that would be generated by at least 13 MW, as well as the overall plant exergy efficiency by at least 6.4%, and at the same time that would cause an increase of the total exergy destruction by at least 14 MW. The achieved results showed that the super heater design and operating conditions play an important role on the thermodynamics performance and the fuel utilization of the power plant. Moreover, these considerations are very useful in the process of the decision that should be taken at the occasions of deciding whether to replace or renovate the super heater of the power plant.

Keywords: Exergy, Super-heater, Fouling; Steam power plant; Off-design., Fouling;, Super-heater, Steam power plant

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Authors: Moslem Hossain, Mukesh Kumar, K. C. Das

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Background: Household headship is the crucial decision-maker as well as the economic provider of the household. In Indian society, household heads occupied by men from the pre-colonial period. This study attempt to examine the changes in household headship in India. Methods: The study used univariate and multivariate analysis to examine the trends and patterns of different characteristics of the household head using the various rounds of national family health survey data. Results: The female household head is gradually increasing; on the other hand, the male-dominant is decreasing over the four national family and health surveys. The mean age of the household head is higher in rural areas than urban India. Only ten percentage of Households are higher educated, and 83 percent of the male household head has a low standard of living. The mean family size of the household has a decreasing trend in both the urban and rural areas during the study period. Conclusions: The result indicates that women's autonomy is increasing and leading to inclusive growth, which introduced in the eleven five year plan, especially focuses on the woman and young people in the country.

Keywords: household head, national family health survey, mean age, mean family size

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Authors: Arthy Vinayakam, Emilda Judith Ezhil Rajan

Abstract:

Adolescents with epilepsy living in developing country like India face many difficulties on stigma towards the disease. The psychological wellbeing of adolescents who are living with epilepsy has a varied influence on their daily activities and decision-making. Parental involvement with adolescents has always been a subject of caution. The dynamics in adolescents with epilepsy is much varied as their parental aspects has been known to have an impact on their education, socialization and wellbeing. The current study aims to identify the effect of parental styles, how they tend to effect the perception of self-concept that relate to the stigma in adolescents with epilepsy. A sample of 30 adolescents with epilepsy and their parents were taken; a control group of 30 adolescents and their parents were also taken. The General Health Questionnaire -12 was used as a screening for both groups to be included in the study. Parents were evaluated with Parenting Practices Questionnaire (PPQ). Adolescents were administered the Epilepsy Stigma Scale (ESS), Rosenberg Self-esteem Scale (RSS) and Adolescent Wellbeing Scale (AWS). Descriptive statistics was used to analyze the data. The findings of the study highlight the challenges of both parent and their influence on adolescent’s wellbeing. The findings also establish the impact of parenting style on the stigma in adolescents having epilepsy and how this influences their self-concept whereby their emotional strength.

Keywords: epilepsy, parenting style, stigma, wellbeing

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