Search results for: theoretical model
17446 A Systemic Maturity Model
Authors: Emir H. Pernet, Jeimy J. Cano
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Maturity models, used descriptively to explain changes in reality or normatively to guide managers to make interventions to make organizations more effective and efficient, are based on the principles of statistical quality control promulgated by Shewhart in the years 30, and on the principles of PDCA continuous improvement (Plan, Do, Check, Act) developed by Deming and Juran. Some frameworks developed over the concept of maturity models includes COBIT, CMM, and ITIL. This paper presents some limitations of traditional maturity models, most of them based on points of reflection and analysis done by some authors. Almost all limitations are related to the mechanistic and reductionist approach of the principles over those models are built. As Systems Theory helps the understanding of the dynamics of organizations and organizational change, the development of a systemic maturity model can help to overcome some of those limitations. This document proposes a systemic maturity model, based on a systemic conceptualization of organizations, focused on the study of the functioning of the parties, the relationships among them, and their behavior as a whole. The concept of maturity from the system theory perspective is conceptually defined as an emergent property of the organization, which arises from as a result of the degree of alignment and integration of their processes. This concept is operationalized through a systemic function that measures the maturity of an organization, and finally validated by the measuring of maturity in organizations. For its operationalization and validation, the model was applied to measure the maturity of organizational Governance, Risk and Compliance (GRC) processes.Keywords: GRC, maturity model, systems theory, viable system model
Procedia PDF Downloads 31617445 Mathematical Modeling of Skin Condensers for Domestic Refrigerator
Authors: Nitin Ghule, S. G. Taji
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A mathematical model of hot-wall condensers used in refrigerators is presented. The model predicts the heat transfer characteristics of condenser and the effects of various design and operating parameters on condenser tube length and capacity. A finite element approach was used to model the condenser. The condenser tube is divided into elemental units, with each element consisting of adhesive tape, refrigerant tube and outer metal sheet. The heat transfer characteristics of each section are then analyzed by considering the heat transfer through the tube wall, tape and the outer sheet. Variations in inner heat transfer coefficient and pressure drop are considered depending on temperature, fluid phase, type of flow and orientation of tube. Variation in outer heat transfer coefficient is also taken into account. Various materials were analysed for the tube, tape and outer sheet.Keywords: condenser, domestic refrigerator, heat transfer, mathematical model
Procedia PDF Downloads 45617444 The Application of System Approach to Knowledge Management and Human Resource Management Evidence from Tehran Municipality
Authors: Vajhollah Ghorbanizadeh, Seyed Mohsen Asadi, Mirali Seyednaghavi, Davoud Hoseynpour
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In the current era, all organizations need knowledge to be able to manage the diverse human resources. Creative, dynamic and knowledge-based Human resources are important competitive advantage and the scarcest resource in today's knowledge-based economy. In addition managers with skills of knowledge management must be aware of human resource management science. It is now generally accepted that successful implementation of knowledge management requires dynamic interaction between knowledge management and human resource management. This is emphasized at systematic approach to knowledge management as well. However human resource management can be complementary of knowledge management because human resources management with the aim of empowering human resources as the key resource organizations in the 21st century, the use of other resources, creating and growing and developing today. Thus, knowledge is the major capital of every organization which is introduced through the process of knowledge management. In this context, knowledge management is systematic approach to create, receive, organize, access, and use of knowledge and learning in the organization. This article aims to define and explain the concepts of knowledge management and human resource management and the importance of these processes and concepts. Literature related to knowledge management and human resource management as well as related topics were studied, then to design, illustrate and provide a theoretical model to explain the factors affecting the relationship between knowledge management and human resource management and knowledge management system approach, for schematic design and are drawn.Keywords: systemic approach, human resources, knowledge, human resources management, knowledge management
Procedia PDF Downloads 38117443 'Typical' Criminals: A Schutzian Influenced Theoretical Framework Exploring Type and Stereotype Formation
Authors: Mariam Shah
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The way the human mind interprets and comprehends the world it occupies has long been a topic of discussion amongst philosophers and phenomenologists. This paper will focus predominantly on the ideologies espoused by the phenomenologist Alfred Schutz and will investigate how we attribute meaning to an event through the process of typification, and the production and usage of ‘types' and ‘stereotypes.' This paper will then discuss how subjective ideologies innate within us result in unique and subjective decision outcomes, based on a phenomenologically influenced theoretical framework which will illustrate how we form ‘types’ in order to ‘typecast’ and form judgements of everything and everyone we experience. The framework used will be founded in theory espoused by Alfred Schutz, and will review the different types of knowledge we rely on innately to inform our judgements, the relevance we attribute to the information which we acquire, and how we consciously and unconsciously apply this framework to everyday situations. An assessment will then be made of the potential impact that these subjective meaning structures can present when dispensing justice in criminal courts. This paper will investigate how these subjective meaning structures can influence our consciousness on both a conscious and unconscious level, and how this could potentially result in bias judicial outcomes due to negative ‘types’ or ‘stereotypes.' This paper will ultimately illustrate that we unconsciously and unreflexively use pre-formed types and stereotypes to inform our judgements and give meaning to what we have just experienced.Keywords: Alfred Schutz, criminal courts, decision making, judicial decision making, phenomenology, Schutzian stereotypes, types, typification
Procedia PDF Downloads 23017442 Evaluation of Weather Risk Insurance for Agricultural Products Using a 3-Factor Pricing Model
Authors: O. Benabdeljelil, A. Karioun, S. Amami, R. Rouger, M. Hamidine
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A model for preventing the risks related to climate conditions in the agricultural sector is presented. It will determine the yearly optimum premium to be paid by a producer in order to reach his required turnover. The model is based on both climatic stability and 'soft' responses of usually grown species to average climate variations at the same place and inside a safety ball which can be determined from past meteorological data. This allows the use of linear regression expression for dependence of production result in terms of driving meteorological parameters, the main ones of which are daily average sunlight, rainfall and temperature. By simple best parameter fit from the expert table drawn with professionals, optimal representation of yearly production is determined from records of previous years, and yearly payback is evaluated from minimum yearly produced turnover. The model also requires accurate pricing of commodity at N+1. Therefore, a pricing model is developed using 3 state variables, namely the spot price, the difference between the mean-term and the long-term forward price, and the long-term structure of the model. The use of historical data enables to calibrate the parameters of state variables, and allows the pricing of commodity. Application to beet sugar underlines pricer precision. Indeed, the percentage of accuracy between computed result and real world is 99,5%. Optimal premium is then deduced and gives the producer a useful bound for negotiating an offer by insurance companies to effectively protect its harvest. The application to beet production in French Oise department illustrates the reliability of present model with as low as 6% difference between predicted and real data. The model can be adapted to almost any agricultural field by changing state parameters and calibrating their associated coefficients.Keywords: agriculture, production model, optimal price, meteorological factors, 3-factor model, parameter calibration, forward price
Procedia PDF Downloads 38117441 From Conflicts to Synergies between Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change: The Case of Lisbon Downtown 2010-2030
Authors: Nuno M. Pereira
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In the last thirty years, European cities have been addressing global climate change and its local impacts by implementing mitigation and adaptation strategies. Lisbon Downtown is no exception with 10 plans under implementation since 2010 with completion scheduled for 2030 valued 1 billion euros of public investment. However, the gap between mitigation and adaptation strategies is not yet sufficiently studied alongside with its nuances- vulnerability and risk mitigation, resilience and adaptation. In Lisbon Downtown, these plans are being implemented separately, therefore compromising the effectiveness of public investment. The research reviewed the common ground of mitigation and adaptation strategies of the theoretical framework and analyzed the current urban development actions in Lisbon Downtown in order to identify potential conflicts and synergies. The empirical fieldwork supported by a sounding board of experts has been developed during two years and the results suggest that the largest public investment in Lisbon on flooding mitigation will conflict with the new Cruise ship terminal and old Downton building stock, therefore increasing risk and vulnerability factors. The study concludes that the Lisbon Downtown blue infrastructure plan should be redesigned in some areas in a trans- disciplinary and holistic approach and that the current theoretical framework on climate change should focus more on mitigation and adaptation synergies articulating the gray, blue and green infrastructures, combining old knowledge tested by resilient communities and new knowledge emerging from the digital era.Keywords: adaptation, climate change, conflict, Lisbon Downtown, mitigation, synergy
Procedia PDF Downloads 20417440 Predicting the Frequencies of Tropical Cyclone-Induced Rainfall Events in the US Using a Machine-Learning Model
Authors: Elham Sharifineyestani, Mohammad Farshchin
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Tropical cyclones are one of the most expensive and deadliest natural disasters. They cause heavy rainfall and serious flash flooding that result in billions of dollars of damage and considerable mortality each year in the United States. Prediction of the frequency of tropical cyclone-induced rainfall events can be helpful in emergency planning and flood risk management. In this study, we have developed a machine-learning model to predict the exceedance frequencies of tropical cyclone-induced rainfall events in the United States. Model results show a satisfactory agreement with available observations. To examine the effectiveness of our approach, we also have compared the result of our predictions with the exceedance frequencies predicted using a physics-based rainfall model by Feldmann.Keywords: flash flooding, tropical cyclones, frequencies, machine learning, risk management
Procedia PDF Downloads 25117439 A Study of Behavioral Phenomena Using an Artificial Neural Network
Authors: Yudhajit Datta
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Will is a phenomenon that has puzzled humanity for a long time. It is a belief that Will Power of an individual affects the success achieved by an individual in life. It is thought that a person endowed with great will power can overcome even the most crippling setbacks of life while a person with a weak will cannot make the most of life even the greatest assets. Behavioral aspects of the human experience such as will are rarely subjected to quantitative study owing to the numerous uncontrollable parameters involved. This work is an attempt to subject the phenomena of will to the test of an artificial neural network. The claim being tested is that will power of an individual largely determines success achieved in life. In the study, an attempt is made to incorporate the behavioral phenomenon of will into a computational model using data pertaining to the success of individuals obtained from an experiment. A neural network is to be trained using data based upon part of the model, and subsequently used to make predictions regarding will corresponding to data points of success. If the prediction is in agreement with the model values, the model is to be retained as a candidate. Ultimately, the best-fit model from among the many different candidates is to be selected, and used for studying the correlation between success and will.Keywords: will power, will, success, apathy factor, random factor, characteristic function, life story
Procedia PDF Downloads 38217438 Ten Patterns of Organizational Misconduct and a Descriptive Model of Interactions
Authors: Ali Abbas
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This paper presents a descriptive model of organizational misconduct based on observed patterns that occur before and after an ethical collapse. The patterns were classified by categorizing media articles in both "for-profit" and "not-for-profit" organizations. Based on the model parameters, the paper provides a descriptive model of various organizational deflection strategies under numerous scenarios, including situations where ethical complaints build-up, situations under which whistleblowers become more prevalent, situations where large scandals that relate to leadership occur, and strategies by which organizations deflect blame when pressure builds up or when media finds out. The model parameters start with the premise of a tolerance to double standards in unethical acts when conducted by leadership or by members of corporate governance. Following this premise, the model explains how organizations engage in discursive strategies to cover up the potential conflicts that arise, including secret agreements and weakening stakeholders who may oppose the organizational acts. Deflection strategies include "preemptive" and "post-complaint" secret agreements, absence of (or vague) documented procedures, engaging in blame and scapegoating, remaining silent on complaints until the media finds out, as well as being slow (if at all) to acknowledge misconduct and fast to cover it up. The results of this paper may be used to guide organizational leaders into the implications of such shortsighted strategies toward unethical acts, even if they are deemed legal. Validation of the model assumptions through numerous media articles is provided.Keywords: ethical decision making, prediction, scandals, organizational strategies
Procedia PDF Downloads 13217437 Prediction of Mental Health: Heuristic Subjective Well-Being Model on Perceived Stress Scale
Authors: Ahmet Karakuş, Akif Can Kilic, Emre Alptekin
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A growing number of studies have been conducted to determine how well-being may be predicted using well-designed models. It is necessary to investigate the backgrounds of features in order to construct a viable Subjective Well-Being (SWB) model. We have picked the suitable variables from the literature on SWB that are acceptable for real-world data instructions. The goal of this work is to evaluate the model by feeding it with SWB characteristics and then categorizing the stress levels using machine learning methods to see how well it performs on a real dataset. Despite the fact that it is a multiclass classification issue, we have achieved significant metric scores, which may be taken into account for a specific task.Keywords: machine learning, multiclassification problem, subjective well-being, perceived stress scale
Procedia PDF Downloads 13817436 Licensing in a Hotelling Model with Quadratic Transportation Costs
Authors: Fehmi Bouguezzi
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This paper studies optimal licensing regimes in a linear Hotelling model where firms are located at the end points of the city and where the transportation cost is not linear but quadratic. We study for that a more general cost function and we try to compare the findings with the results of the linear cost. We find the same optimal licensing regimes. A per unit royalty is optimal when innovation is not drastic and no licensing is better when innovation is drastic. We also find that no licensing is always better than fixed fee licensing.Keywords: Hotelling model, technology transfer, patent licensing, quadratic transportation cost
Procedia PDF Downloads 35317435 Extreme Value Modelling of Ghana Stock Exchange Indices
Authors: Kwabena Asare, Ezekiel N. N. Nortey, Felix O. Mettle
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Modelling of extreme events has always been of interest in fields such as hydrology and meteorology. However, after the recent global financial crises, appropriate models for modelling of such rare events leading to these crises have become quite essential in the finance and risk management fields. This paper models the extreme values of the Ghana Stock Exchange All-Shares indices (2000-2010) by applying the Extreme Value Theory to fit a model to the tails of the daily stock returns data. A conditional approach of the EVT was preferred and hence an ARMA-GARCH model was fitted to the data to correct for the effects of autocorrelation and conditional heteroscedastic terms present in the returns series, before EVT method was applied. The Peak Over Threshold (POT) approach of the EVT, which fits a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) model to excesses above a certain selected threshold, was employed. Maximum likelihood estimates of the model parameters were obtained and the model’s goodness of fit was assessed graphically using Q-Q, P-P and density plots. The findings indicate that the GPD provides an adequate fit to the data of excesses. The size of the extreme daily Ghanaian stock market movements were then computed using the Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) risk measures at some high quantiles, based on the fitted GPD model.Keywords: extreme value theory, expected shortfall, generalized pareto distribution, peak over threshold, value at risk
Procedia PDF Downloads 56417434 Half Model Testing for Canard of a Hybrid Buoyant Aircraft
Authors: Anwar U. Haque, Waqar Asrar, Ashraf Ali Omar, Erwin Sulaeman, Jaffer Sayed Mohamed Ali
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Due to the interference effects, the intrinsic aerodynamic parameters obtained from the individual component testing are always fundamentally different than those obtained for complete model testing. Consideration and limitation for such testing need to be taken into account in any design work related to the component buildup method. In this paper, the scaled model of a straight rectangular canard of a hybrid buoyant aircraft is tested at 50 m/s in IIUM-LSWT (Low-Speed Wind Tunnel). Model and its attachment with the balance are kept rigid to have results free from the aeroelastic distortion. Based on the velocity profile of the test section’s floor; the height of the model is kept equal to the corresponding boundary layer displacement. Balance measurements provide valuable but limited information of the overall aerodynamic behavior of the model. Zero lift coefficient is obtained at -2.2o and the corresponding drag coefficient was found to be less than that at zero angles of attack. As a part of the validation of low fidelity tool, the plot of lift coefficient plot was verified by the experimental data and except the value of zero lift coefficient, the overall trend has under-predicted the lift coefficient. Based on this comparative study, a correction factor of 1.36 is proposed for lift curve slope obtained from the panel method.Keywords: wind tunnel testing, boundary layer displacement, lift curve slope, canard, aerodynamics
Procedia PDF Downloads 47617433 Pressure-Controlled Dynamic Equations of the PFC Model: A Mathematical Formulation
Authors: Jatupon Em-Udom, Nirand Pisutha-Arnond
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The phase-field-crystal, PFC, approach is a density-functional-type material model with an atomic resolution on a diffusive timescale. Spatially, the model incorporates periodic nature of crystal lattices and can naturally exhibit elasticity, plasticity and crystal defects such as grain boundaries and dislocations. Temporally, the model operates on a diffusive timescale which bypasses the need to resolve prohibitively small atomic-vibration time steps. The PFC model has been used to study many material phenomena such as grain growth, elastic and plastic deformations and solid-solid phase transformations. In this study, the pressure-controlled dynamic equation for the PFC model was developed to simulate a single-component system under externally applied pressure; these coupled equations are important for studies of deformable systems such as those under constant pressure. The formulation is based on the non-equilibrium thermodynamics and the thermodynamics of crystalline solids. To obtain the equations, the entropy variation around the equilibrium point was derived. Then the resulting driving forces and flux around the equilibrium were obtained and rewritten as conventional thermodynamic quantities. These dynamics equations are different from the recently-proposed equations; the equations in this study should provide more rigorous descriptions of the system dynamics under externally applied pressure.Keywords: driving forces and flux, evolution equation, non equilibrium thermodynamics, Onsager’s reciprocal relation, phase field crystal model, thermodynamics of single-component solid
Procedia PDF Downloads 31017432 Approximation of a Wanted Flow via Topological Sensitivity Analysis
Authors: Mohamed Abdelwahed
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We propose an optimization algorithm for the geometric control of fluid flow. The used approach is based on the topological sensitivity analysis method. It consists in studying the variation of a cost function with respect to the insertion of a small obstacle in the domain. Some theoretical and numerical results are presented in 2D and 3D.Keywords: sensitivity analysis, topological gradient, shape optimization, stokes equations
Procedia PDF Downloads 54217431 Best Responses for the Dynamic Model of Hotel Room Rate
Authors: Xuan Tran
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The purpose of this paper is to present a comprehensive dynamic model for pricing strategies in the hotel competition to find a win-win situation for the competitive set. By utilizing the Cobb-Douglas utility model, the study establishes room rates by analyzing the price elasticity of demand across a competitive set of four hotels, with a focus on occupancy rates. To further enhance the analysis, game theory is applied to identify the best response for each competitive party, which illustrates the optimal pricing strategy for each hotel in the competitive landscape. This approach offers valuable insights into how hotels can strategically adjust their room rates in response to market conditions and competitor actions. The primary contributions of this research include as follows: (1) advantages for both individual hotels and the broader competitive hotel market, (2) benefits for hotel management overseeing multiple brands, and (3) positive impacts on the local community.Keywords: dynamic model, game theory, best response, Cobb-Douglas
Procedia PDF Downloads 3017430 Experimental Investigation and Constitutive Modeling of Volume Strain under Uniaxial Strain Rate Jump Test in HDPE
Authors: Rida B. Arieby, Hameed N. Hameed
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In this work, tensile tests on high density polyethylene have been carried out under various constant strain rate and strain rate jump tests. The dependency of the true stress and specially the variation of volume strain have been investigated, the volume strain due to the phenomena of damage was determined in real time during the tests by an optical extensometer called Videotraction. A modified constitutive equations, including strain rate and damage effects, are proposed, such a model is based on a non-equilibrium thermodynamic approach called (DNLR). The ability of the model to predict the complex nonlinear response of this polymer is examined by comparing the model simulation with the available experimental data, which demonstrate that this model can represent the deformation behavior of the polymer reasonably well.Keywords: strain rate jump tests, volume strain, high density polyethylene, large strain, thermodynamics approach
Procedia PDF Downloads 26417429 Hidden Markov Model for the Simulation Study of Neural States and Intentionality
Authors: R. B. Mishra
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Hidden Markov Model (HMM) has been used in prediction and determination of states that generate different neural activations as well as mental working conditions. This paper addresses two applications of HMM; one to determine the optimal sequence of states for two neural states: Active (AC) and Inactive (IA) for the three emission (observations) which are for No Working (NW), Waiting (WT) and Working (W) conditions of human beings. Another is for the determination of optimal sequence of intentionality i.e. Believe (B), Desire (D), and Intention (I) as the states and three observational sequences: NW, WT and W. The computational results are encouraging and useful.Keywords: hiden markov model, believe desire intention, neural activation, simulation
Procedia PDF Downloads 37817428 A Prediction Method for Large-Size Event Occurrences in the Sandpile Model
Authors: S. Channgam, A. Sae-Tang, T. Termsaithong
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In this research, the occurrences of large size events in various system sizes of the Bak-Tang-Wiesenfeld sandpile model are considered. The system sizes (square lattice) of model considered here are 25×25, 50×50, 75×75 and 100×100. The cross-correlation between the ratio of sites containing 3 grain time series and the large size event time series for these 4 system sizes are also analyzed. Moreover, a prediction method of the large-size event for the 50×50 system size is also introduced. Lastly, it can be shown that this prediction method provides a slightly higher efficiency than random predictions.Keywords: Bak-Tang-Wiesenfeld sandpile model, cross-correlation, avalanches, prediction method
Procedia PDF Downloads 38717427 Modelling of Heating and Evaporation of Biodiesel Fuel Droplets
Authors: Mansour Al Qubeissi, Sergei S. Sazhin, Cyril Crua, Morgan R. Heikal
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This paper presents the application of the Discrete Component Model for heating and evaporation to multi-component biodiesel fuel droplets in direct injection internal combustion engines. This model takes into account the effects of temperature gradient, recirculation and species diffusion inside droplets. A distinctive feature of the model used in the analysis is that it is based on the analytical solutions to the temperature and species diffusion equations inside the droplets. Nineteen types of biodiesel fuels are considered. It is shown that a simplistic model, based on the approximation of biodiesel fuel by a single component or ignoring the diffusion of components of biodiesel fuel, leads to noticeable errors in predicted droplet evaporation time and time evolution of droplet surface temperature and radius.Keywords: heat/mass transfer, biodiesel, multi-component fuel, droplet
Procedia PDF Downloads 57117426 Case-Wise Investigation of Body-Wave Propagation in a Cross-Anisotropic Soil Exhibiting Inhomogeneity along Depth
Authors: Sumit Kumar Vishawakarma, Tapas Ranjan Panihari
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The article investigates the propagation behavior of SV-wave, SH-wave, and P-wave in a continuously inhomogeneous cross-anisotropic material, where the material properties such as Young's moduli, shear modulus, and density vary as an arbitrary continuous function of depth. In the considered model, Hook's law, strain-displacement relations along with equilibrium equations have been used to derive the governing equation. The mathematical formulation of this physical problem gives rise to an eigenvalue problem with displacement components as fundamental variables. This leads to achieving the closed-form expressions for quasi-wave velocities of SV-wave, SH-wave, and P-wave in the considered framework. These characteristics of wave propagation along with the above-stated variation have been scrutinized based on their numerical results. This parametric study reveals that wave velocity remarkably fluctuates as the magnitude of inhomogeneity parameters increases and decreases. The prominent effect has been shown depicting the dependence of wave velocity on the degree of material anisotropy. The influence of phase angle and depth of the medium has been remarkably established. The present study may facilitate the theoretical foundation and practical application in the field of earthquake source mechanisms.Keywords: cross-anisotropic, inhomogeneity, P-wave, SH-wave, SV-wave, shear modulus, Young’s modulus
Procedia PDF Downloads 12517425 Understanding Indigenous Perspectives and Critical Knowledge in International Law
Authors: Radhika Jagtap
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Contemporary scholarship in international legal theory is investigating new avenues of providing alternatives to dominant concepts. Indigenous peoples’ philosophies and perspectives developed through them provide a fertile ground to explore similar alternative ideas. This review paper evaluates the theorized accounts of indigenous scholarships which have contributed towards a rich body of knowledge generating alternative visions on dominant notions of ‘post coloniality’, ‘resistance’ and ‘globalization’. Further, it shall assess the relevance of such a project in shaping contemporary international legal thought. Traditional or classical international law has been opined to be highly influenced by the colonial and imperialist history which also left a mark on the way dominant discourses of resistance and globalization are read in mainstream international law. The paper shall first define what do we mean by indigenous philosophy and what kind of indigeneity is that inclusive of. Second, the paper defines the dominant discourse and then counters the same with the alternative indigenous perspective in the case of each concept that is in question. Finally, the paper shall conclude with certain theoretical findings – that the post coloniality, from indigenous perspective, lead to the further marginalization of indigeneity, especially in the third world; that human rights as the sole means of representing resistance in international law ends up making it a very state-centric discipline and last, that globalization from an indigenous, marginalised perspective is not as celebrated as it is in mainstream international law. Major scholarly works that shall be central to the discussion are those of Linda Tuiwahi Smith, Ella Shohat and David Harvey. The nature of the research shall be inductive and involve mostly theoretical review of scholarly works.Keywords: indigenous, post colonial, globalization, perspectives
Procedia PDF Downloads 34317424 A Mixture Vine Copula Structures Model for Dependence Wind Speed among Wind Farms and Its Application in Reactive Power Optimization
Authors: Yibin Qiu, Yubo Ouyang, Shihan Li, Guorui Zhang, Qi Li, Weirong Chen
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This paper aims at exploring the impacts of high dimensional dependencies of wind speed among wind farms on probabilistic optimal power flow. To obtain the reactive power optimization faster and more accurately, a mixture vine Copula structure model combining the K-means clustering, C vine copula and D vine copula is proposed in this paper, through which a more accurate correlation model can be obtained. Moreover, a Modified Backtracking Search Algorithm (MBSA), the three-point estimate method is applied to probabilistic optimal power flow. The validity of the mixture vine copula structure model and the MBSA are respectively tested in IEEE30 node system with measured data of 3 adjacent wind farms in a certain area, and the results indicate effectiveness of these methods.Keywords: mixture vine copula structure model, three-point estimate method, the probability integral transform, modified backtracking search algorithm, reactive power optimization
Procedia PDF Downloads 25117423 Geopotential Models Evaluation in Algeria Using Stochastic Method, GPS/Leveling and Topographic Data
Authors: M. A. Meslem
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For precise geoid determination, we use a reference field to subtract long and medium wavelength of the gravity field from observations data when we use the remove-compute-restore technique. Therefore, a comparison study between considered models should be made in order to select the optimal reference gravity field to be used. In this context, two recent global geopotential models have been selected to perform this comparison study over Northern Algeria. The Earth Gravitational Model (EGM2008) and the Global Gravity Model (GECO) conceived with a combination of the first model with anomalous potential derived from a GOCE satellite-only global model. Free air gravity anomalies in the area under study have been used to compute residual data using both gravity field models and a Digital Terrain Model (DTM) to subtract the residual terrain effect from the gravity observations. Residual data were used to generate local empirical covariance functions and their fitting to the closed form in order to compare their statistical behaviors according to both cases. Finally, height anomalies were computed from both geopotential models and compared to a set of GPS levelled points on benchmarks using least squares adjustment. The result described in details in this paper regarding these two models has pointed out a slight advantage of GECO global model globally through error degree variances comparison and ground-truth evaluation.Keywords: quasigeoid, gravity aomalies, covariance, GGM
Procedia PDF Downloads 14217422 Use of Transportation Networks to Optimize The Profit Dynamics of the Product Distribution
Authors: S. Jayasinghe, R. B. N. Dissanayake
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Optimization modelling together with the Network models and Linear Programming techniques is a powerful tool in problem solving and decision making in real world applications. This study developed a mathematical model to optimize the net profit by minimizing the transportation cost. This model focuses the transportation among decentralized production plants to a centralized distribution centre and then the distribution among island wide agencies considering the customer satisfaction as a requirement. This company produces basically 9 types of food items with 82 different varieties and 4 types of non-food items with 34 different varieties. Among 6 production plants, 4 were located near the city of Mawanella and the other 2 were located in Galewala and Anuradhapura cities which are 80 km and 150 km away from Mawanella respectively. The warehouse located in the Mawanella was the main production plant and also the only distribution plant. This plant distributes manufactured products to 39 agencies island-wide. The average values and average amount of the goods for 6 consecutive months from May 2013 to October 2013 were collected and then average demand values were calculated. The following constraints are used as the necessary requirement to satisfy the optimum condition of the model; there was one source, 39 destinations and supply and demand for all the agencies are equal. Using transport cost for a kilometer, total transport cost was calculated. Then the model was formulated using distance and flow of the distribution. Network optimization and linear programming techniques were used to originate the model while excel solver is used in solving. Results showed that company requires total transport cost of Rs. 146, 943, 034.50 to fulfil the customers’ requirement for a month. This is very much less when compared with data without using the model. Model also proved that company can reduce their transportation cost by 6% when distributing to island-wide customers. Company generally satisfies their customers’ requirements by 85%. This satisfaction can be increased up to 97% by using this model. Therefore this model can be used by other similar companies in order to reduce the transportation cost.Keywords: mathematical model, network optimization, linear programming
Procedia PDF Downloads 34817421 Estimation of Pressure Profile and Boundary Layer Characteristics over NACA 4412 Airfoil
Authors: Anwar Ul Haque, Waqar Asrar, Erwin Sulaeman, Jaffar S. M. Ali
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Pressure distribution data of the standard airfoils is usually used for the calibration purposes in subsonic wind tunnels. Results of such experiments are quite old and obtained by using the model in the spanwise direction. In this manuscript, pressure distribution over NACA 4412 airfoil model was presented by placing the 3D model in the lateral direction. The model is made of metal with pressure ports distributed longitudinally as well as in the lateral direction. The pressure model was attached to the floor of the tunnel with the help of the base plate to give the specified angle of attack to the model. Before the start of the experiments, the pressure tubes of the respective ports of the 128 ports pressure scanner are checked for leakage, and the losses due to the length of the pipes were also incorporated in the results for the specified pressure range. Growth rate maps of the boundary layer thickness were also plotted. It was found that with the increase in the velocity, the dynamic pressure distribution was also increased for the alpha seep. Plots of pressure distribution so obtained were overlapped with those obtained by using XFLR software, a low fidelity tool. It was found that at moderate and high angles of attack, the distribution of the pressure coefficients obtained from the experiments is high when compared with the XFLR ® results obtained along with the span of the wing. This under-prediction by XFLR ® is more obvious on the windward than on the leeward side.Keywords: subsonic flow, boundary layer, wind tunnel, pressure testing
Procedia PDF Downloads 32317420 Application of Neural Networks to Predict Changing the Diameters of Bubbles in Pool Boiling Distilled Water
Authors: V. Nikkhah Rashidabad, M. Manteghian, M. Masoumi, S. Mousavian, D. Ashouri
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In this research, the capability of neural networks in modeling and learning complicated and nonlinear relations has been used to develop a model for the prediction of changes in the diameter of bubbles in pool boiling distilled water. The input parameters used in the development of this network include element temperature, heat flux, and retention time of bubbles. The test data obtained from the experiment of the pool boiling of distilled water, and the measurement of the bubbles form on the cylindrical element. The model was developed based on training algorithm, which is typologically of back-propagation type. Considering the correlation coefficient obtained from this model is 0.9633. This shows that this model can be trusted for the simulation and modeling of the size of bubble and thermal transfer of boiling.Keywords: bubble diameter, heat flux, neural network, training algorithm
Procedia PDF Downloads 44817419 Scale-Up Study of Gas-Liquid Two Phase Flow in Downcomer
Authors: Jayanth Abishek Subramanian, Ramin Dabirian, Ilias Gavrielatos, Ram Mohan, Ovadia Shoham
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Downcomers are important conduits for multiphase flow transfer from offshore platforms to the seabed. Uncertainty in the predictions of the pressure drop of multiphase flow between platforms is often dominated by the uncertainty associated with the prediction of holdup and pressure drop in the downcomer. The objectives of this study are to conduct experimental and theoretical scale-up study of the downcomer. A 4-in. diameter vertical test section was designed and constructed to study two-phase flow in downcomer. The facility is equipped with baffles for flow area restriction, enabling interchangeable annular slot openings between 30% and 61.7%. Also, state-of-the-art instrumentation, the capacitance Wire-Mesh Sensor (WMS) was utilized to acquire the experimental data. A total of 76 experimental data points were acquired, including falling film under 30% and 61.7% annular slot opening for air-water and air-Conosol C200 oil cases as well as gas carry-under for 30% and 61.7% opening utilizing air-Conosol C200 oil. For all experiments, the parameters such as falling film thickness and velocity, entrained liquid holdup in the core, gas void fraction profiles at the cross-sectional area of the liquid column, the void fraction and the gas carry under were measured. The experimental results indicated that the film thickness and film velocity increase as the flow area reduces. Also, the increase in film velocity increases the gas entrainment process. Furthermore, the results confirmed that the increase of gas entrainment for the same liquid flow rate leads to an increase in the gas carry-under. A power comparison method was developed to enable evaluation of the Lopez (2011) model, which was created for full bore downcomer, with the novel scale-up experiment data acquired from the downcomer with the restricted area for flow. Comparison between the experimental data and the model predictions shows a maximum absolute average discrepancy of 22.9% and 21.8% for the falling film thickness and velocity, respectively; and a maximum absolute average discrepancy of 22.2% for fraction of gas carried with the liquid (oil).Keywords: two phase flow, falling film, downcomer, wire-mesh sensor
Procedia PDF Downloads 17017418 A Non-linear Damage Model For The Annulus Of the Intervertebral Disc Under Cyclic Loading, Including Recovery
Authors: Shruti Motiwale, Xianlin Zhou, Reuben H. Kraft
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Military and sports personnel are often required to wear heavy helmets for extended periods of time. This leads to excessive cyclic loads on the neck and an increased chance of injury. Computational models offer one approach to understand and predict the time progression of disc degeneration under severe cyclic loading. In this paper, we have applied an analytic non-linear damage evolution model to estimate damage evolution in an intervertebral disc due to cyclic loads over decade-long time periods. We have also proposed a novel strategy for inclusion of recovery in the damage model. Our results show that damage only grows 20% in the initial 75% of the life, growing exponentially in the remaining 25% life. The analysis also shows that it is crucial to include recovery in a damage model.Keywords: cervical spine, computational biomechanics, damage evolution, intervertebral disc, continuum damage mechanics
Procedia PDF Downloads 57317417 Using an Empathy Intervention Model to Enhance Empathy and Socially Shared Regulation in Youth with Autism Spectrum Disorder
Authors: Yu-Chi Chou
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The purpose of this study was to establish a logical path of an instructional model of empathy and social regulation, providing feasibility evidence on the model implementation in students with autism spectrum disorder (ASD). This newly developed Emotional Bug-Out Bag (BoB) curriculum was designed to enhance the empathy and socially shared regulation of students with ASD. The BoB model encompassed three instructional phases of basic theory lessons (BTL), action plan practices (APP), and final theory practices (FTP) during implementation. Besides, a learning flow (teacher-directed instruction, student self-directed problem-solving, group-based task completion, group-based reflection) was infused into the progress of instructional phases to deliberately promote the social regulatory process in group-working activities. A total of 23 junior high school students with ASD were implemented with the BoB curriculum. To examine the logical path for model implementation, data was collected from the participating students’ self-report scores on the learning nodes and understanding questions. Path analysis using structural equation modeling (SEM) was utilized for analyzing scores on 10 learning nodes and 41 understanding questions through the three phases of the BoB model. Results showed (a) all participants progressed throughout the implementation of the BoB model, and (b) the models of learning nodes and phases were positive and significant as expected, confirming the hypothesized logic path of this curriculum.Keywords: autism spectrum disorder, empathy, regulation, socially shared regulation
Procedia PDF Downloads 70