Search results for: operating profit margin
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 3117

Search results for: operating profit margin

1227 A Drop of Water for the Thirsty Ground: Implementing Drip-Irrigation System as an Alternative to the Existing System to Promote Sustainable Livelihoods in the Archipelagic Dryland East Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia

Authors: F. L. Benu, I. W. Mudita, R. L. Natonis

Abstract:

East Nusa Tenggara, together with part of East Java, West Nusa Tenggara, and Maluku, has been included as part of global drylands defined according to the ratio of annual precipitation (P) and annual potential evaporation (PET) and major vegetation types of grassland and savannah ecosystems. These tropical drylands are unique because, whereas drylands in other countries are mostly continental, here they are archipelagic. These archipelagic drylands are also unique in terms of being included because of more on their major vegetation types than of their P/PET ratio. Slash-and-burn cultivation and free roaming animal husbandry are two major livelihoods being widely practiced, along with alternative seasonal livelihood such as traditional fishing. Such livelihoods are vulnerable in various respects, especially because of drought, which becomes more unpredictable in the face of climate changes. To cope with such vulnerability, semi-intensive farming using drip irrigation is implemented as an appropriate technology with the goal of promoting a more sustainable alternative to the existing livelihoods. The implementation was started in 2016 with a pilot system at the university field laboratory in Kupang in which various designs of installation were tested. The modified system consisting of an uplifted water reservoir and solar-powered pump was tested in Papela, the District of Rote-Ndao, in 2017 to convince fishermen who had been involved in illegal fishing in Australia-Indonesia transboundary waters, to adopt small-scale farming as a more sustainable alternative to their existing livelihoods. The system was again tested in a larger coverage in Oesena, the District of Kupang, in 2018 to convince slash-and-burn cultivators to adopt an environmentally friendlier cultivation system. From the implementation of the modified system in both sites, the participating fishermen in Papela were able to manage the system under tight water supply to grow chili pepper, tomatoes, and watermelon and the slash-and-burn cultivators in Oesena to grow chili pepper in a more efficient water use than water use in a conventional irrigation system. The gross margin obtained from growing chili pepper, tomatoes, and watermelon in Papela and from growing chili pepper in Oesena showed that small-scale farming using drip irrigation system was a promising alternative to local people in generating cash income to support their livelihoods. However, before promoting this appropriate technology as a more sustainable alternative to the existing livelihoods elsewhere in the region, better understanding on social-related contexts of the implementation is needed.

Keywords: archipelagic drylands, drip irrigation system, East Nusa Tenggara, sustainable livelihoods

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1226 Economic of Chickpea Cultivars as Influenced by Sowing Time and Seed Rate

Authors: Indu Bala Sethi, Meena Sewhag, Rakesh Kumar, Parveen Kumar

Abstract:

Field experiment was conducted at Pulse Research Area of CCS Haryana Agricultural University, Hisar during rabi 2012-13 to study the economics of chickpea cultivars as influenced by sowing time and seed rate on sandy loam soils under irrigated conditions. The factorial experiment consisting of 24 treatment combinations with two sowing time (1st fortnight of November and 1st fortnight of December.) and four cultivars (H09-23, H08-18, C-235 and HC-1) kept in main plots while three seed rates viz. 40 kg ha-1, 50 kg ha-1 and 60 kg ha-1 was laid out in split plot design with three replications. The crop was sown with common row spacing of 30 cm as per the dates of sowing. The fertilizer was applied in the form of di- ammonium phosphate. The soil of the experimental site was deep sandy loam having pH of 7.9, EC of 0.13 dS/m and low in organic carbon (0.34%), low in available N status (193.36 kg ha-1), medium in available P2O5 (32.18 kg ha-1) and high in available K2O (249.67 kg ha-1). The crop was irrigated as and when required so as to maintain adequate soil moisture in the root zone The crop was sprayed with monocrotophos (1.25 l/ha) at initiation of flowering and at pod filling stage to protect the crop from pod borer attack. The yield was measured at the time of harvest. The cost of field preparation, sowing of seeds, thinning, weeding, plant protection, harvesting and cleaning contributed to fixed cost. The experiment was laid out in a split plot design with two sowing time (1st fortnight of November and 1st fortnight of December.) and four cultivars (H09-23, H08-18, C-235 and HC-1) kept in main plots while three seed rates viz. 40 kg ha-1, 50 kg ha-1 and 60 kg ha-1 were kept in subplots and replicated thrice. Results revealed that 1st fortnight of November sowing recorded significantly higher gross (Rs.1, 01,254 ha-1), net returns (Rs. 68,504 ha-1) and BC (3.09) ratio as compared to delayed crop of chickpea. Highest gross (Rs.91826 ha-1), net returns (Rs. 59076ha-1) and BC ratio (2.81) was recorded with H08-18. Higher value of cost of cultivation of chickpea was observed in higher seed rate than the lower ones. However no significant variation in net and gross returns was observed due to seed rates. Highest BC (2.72) ratio was recorded with 50 kg ha-1 which differs significantly from 60 kg ha-1 but was at par with 40 kg ha-1. This is because of higher grain yield obtained with 50 kg ha-1 seed rate. Net profit for farmers growing chickpea with seed rate of 50 kg ha-1 was higher than the farmers growing chickpea with seed rate of 40 and 60 kg ha.

Keywords: chickpea, cultivars, seed rate, sowing time

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1225 Establishing Forecasts Pointing Towards the Hungarian Energy Change Based on the Results of Local Municipal Renewable Energy Production and Energy Export

Authors: Balazs Kulcsar

Abstract:

Professional energy organizations perform analyses mainly on the global and national levels about the expected development of the share of renewables in electric power generation, heating, and cooling, as well as the transport sectors. There are just a few publications, research institutions, non-profit organizations, and national initiatives with a focus on studies in the individual towns, settlements. Issues concerning the self-supply of energy on the settlement level have not become too wide-spread. The goal of our energy geographic studies is to determine the share of local renewable energy sources in the settlement-based electricity supply across Hungary. The Hungarian energy supply system defines four categories based on the installed capacities of electric power generating units. From these categories, the theoretical annual electricity production of small-sized household power plants (SSHPP) featuring installed capacities under 50 kW and small power plants with under 0.5 MW capacities have been taken into consideration. In the above-mentioned power plant categories, the Hungarian Electricity Act has allowed the establishment of power plants primarily for the utilization of renewable energy sources since 2008. Though with certain restrictions, these small power plants utilizing renewable energies have the closest links to individual settlements and can be regarded as the achievements of the host settlements in the shift of energy use. Based on the 2017 data, we have ranked settlements to reflect the level of self-sufficiency in electricity production from renewable energy sources. The results show that the supply of all the energy demanded by settlements from local renewables is within reach now in small settlements, e.g., in the form of the small power plant categories discussed in the study, and is not at all impossible even in small towns and cities. In Hungary, 30 settlements produce more renewable electricity than their own annual electricity consumption. If these overproductive settlements export their excess electricity towards neighboring settlements, then full electricity supply can be realized on further 29 settlements from renewable sources by local small power plants. These results provide an opportunity for governmental planning of the realization of energy shift (legislative background, support system, environmental education), as well as framing developmental forecasts and scenarios until 2030.

Keywords: energy geography, Hungary, local small power plants, renewable energy sources, self-sufficiency settlements

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1224 Applying the Underwriting Technique to Analyze and Mitigate the Credit Risks in Construction Project Management

Authors: Hai Chien Pham, Thi Phuong Anh Vo, Chansik Park

Abstract:

Risks management in construction projects is important to ensure the positive feasibility of the projects in which financial risks are most concerned while construction projects always run on a credit basis. Credit risks, therefore, require unique and technical tools to be well managed. Underwriting technique in credit risks, in its most basic sense, refers to the process of evaluating the risks and the potential exposure of losses. Risks analysis and underwriting are applied as a must in banks and financial institutions who are supporters for constructions projects when required. Recently, construction organizations, especially contractors, have recognized the significant increasing of credit risks which caused negative impacts to project performance and profit of construction firms. Despite the successful application of underwriting in banks and financial institutions for many years, there are few contractors who are applying this technique to analyze and mitigate the credit risks of their potential owners before signing contracts with them for delivering their performed services. Thus, contractors have taken credit risks during project implementation which might be not materialized due to the bankruptcy and/or protracted default made by their owners. With this regard, this study proposes a model using the underwriting technique for contractors to analyze and assess credit risks of their owners before making final decisions for the potential construction contracts. Contractor’s underwriters are able to analyze and evaluate the subjects such as owner, country, sector, payment terms, financial figures and their related concerns of the credit limit requests in details based on reliable information sources, and then input into the proposed model to have the Overall Assessment Score (OAS). The OAS is as a benchmark for the decision makers to grant the proper limits for the project. The proposed underwriting model is validated by 30 subjects in Asia Pacific region within 5 years to achieve their OAS, and then compare output OAS with their own practical performance in order to evaluate the potential of underwriting model for analyzing and assessing credit risks. The results revealed that the underwriting would be a powerful method to assist contractors in making precise decisions. The contribution of this research is to allow the contractors firstly to develop their own credit risk management model for proactively preventing the credit risks of construction projects and continuously improve and enhance the performance of this function during project implementation.

Keywords: underwriting technique, credit risk, risk management, construction project

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1223 Investigating Safe Operation Condition for Iterative Learning Control under Load Disturbances Effect in Singular Values

Authors: Muhammad A. Alsubaie

Abstract:

An iterative learning control framework designed in state feedback structure suffers a lack in investigating load disturbance considerations. The presented work discusses the controller previously designed, highlights the disturbance problem, finds new conditions using singular value principle to assure safe operation conditions with error convergence and reference tracking under the influence of load disturbance. It is known that periodic disturbances can be represented by a delay model in a positive feedback loop acting on the system input. This model can be manipulated by isolating the delay model and finding a controller for the overall system around the delay model to remedy the periodic disturbances using the small signal theorem. The overall system is the base for control design and load disturbance investigation. The major finding of this work is the load disturbance condition found which clearly sets safe operation condition under the influence of load disturbances such that the error tends to nearly zero as the system keeps operating trial after trial.

Keywords: iterative learning control, singular values, state feedback, load disturbance

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1222 Safety Culture Implementation Based on Occupational Health and Safety Assessment

Authors: Nyambayar Davaadorj, Ichiro Koshijima

Abstract:

Safety or the state of being safe can be described as a condition of being not dangerous or not harmful. It is necessary for an individual to avoid dangerous situations every day. Also, an organization is subject to legal requirements for the health and safety of persons inside and around the immediate workplace, or who are exposed to the workplace activities. Although it might be difficult to keep a situation where complete safety is ensured, efforts must nonetheless be made to consider ways of removing any potential danger within an organization. In order to ensure a safe working environment, the capability of responding (i.e., resilience) to signals (i.e., information concerning events that could pose future problems that must be taken into account) that occur in and around corporations is necessary. The ability to evaluate this essential point is thus one way in which safety and security can be managed. This study focuses on OHSAS18001, an internationally applied standard for the construction and operation of occupational health and safety management systems, by using IDEF0 for Function Modeling (IDEF0) and the Resilience Matrix originally made by Bracco. Further, this study discusses a method for evaluating a manner in which Occupational Health and Safety Assessment Series (OHSAS) systematically functions within corporations. Based on the findings, this study clarifies the potential structural objection for corporations when implementing and operating the OHSAS standard.

Keywords: OHSAS18001, IDEF0, resilience engineering, safety culture

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1221 Field Deployment of Corrosion Inhibitor Developed for Sour Oil and Gas Carbon Steel Pipelines

Authors: Jeremy Moloney

Abstract:

A major oil and gas operator in western Canada producing approximately 50,000 BOE per day of sour fluids was experiencing increased water production along with decreased oil production over several years. The higher water volumes being produced meant an increase in the operator’s incumbent corrosion inhibitor (CI) chemical requirements but with reduced oil production revenues. Thus, a cost-effective corrosion inhibitor solution was sought to deliver enhanced corrosion mitigation of the carbon steel pipeline infrastructure but at reduced chemical injection dose rates. This paper presents the laboratory work conducted on the development of a corrosion inhibitor under the operator’s simulated sour operating conditions and then subsequent field testing of the product. The new CI not only provided extremely good levels of general and localized corrosion inhibition and outperformed the incumbent CI under the laboratory test conditions but did so at vastly lower concentrations. In turn, the novel CI product facilitated field chemical injection rates to be optimized and reduced by 40% compared with the incumbent whilst maintaining superior corrosion protection resulting in significant cost savings and associated sustainability benefits for the operator.

Keywords: carbon steel, sour gas, hydrogen sulphide, localized corrosion, pitting, corrosion inhibitor

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1220 Experimental Investigation of Hybrid Rocket Motor: Ignition, Throttling and Re-Ignition Phenomena

Authors: A. El-S. Makled, M. K. Al-Tamimi

Abstract:

Ignition phenomena are of great interest area over the past many years, and it has a direct impact on many propulsion and combustion applications. The direct goal of the paper is to realize and evaluate a functioning ignition method, shut-off, throttling and re-start operations for the hybrid rocket motor. A small-scale hybrid rocket motor (SSHRM) is designed, manufactured, demonstrated at various operating conditions and finally equipped for laboratory firing tests with high level of safety. Various solid fuel grains as Polymethyle-methacrylate (PMMA) and Polyethylene (PE) are selected, and it is decided to use the commercial gaseous oxygen (GO2) for its availability and low cost. Examine different types of ignition methods, pyrotechnic charge, fuse wire, heat wire and finally hot oxidizer method by using the heat exchanger, which are proposed as very safe ignition methods. Finally; recognize phenomena of throttling and re-start operations. Ignition by hot GO2 impingement is proved to be a very attractive ignition method for laboratory SSHRM, for its high safety, reliability and acceptable delay time. Finally; the throttling and re-start operations are demonstrated several times and can be carried out more easily with hot air ignition method.

Keywords: hybrid rocket motor, ignition system, re-start phenomena, throttling

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1219 Development of Geo-computational Model for Analysis of Lassa Fever Dynamics and Lassa Fever Outbreak Prediction

Authors: Adekunle Taiwo Adenike, I. K. Ogundoyin

Abstract:

Lassa fever is a neglected tropical virus that has become a significant public health issue in Nigeria, with the country having the greatest burden in Africa. This paper presents a Geo-Computational Model for Analysis and Prediction of Lassa Fever Dynamics and Outbreaks in Nigeria. The model investigates the dynamics of the virus with respect to environmental factors and human populations. It confirms the role of the rodent host in virus transmission and identifies how climate and human population are affected. The proposed methodology is carried out on a Linux operating system using the OSGeoLive virtual machine for geographical computing, which serves as a base for spatial ecology computing. The model design uses Unified Modeling Language (UML), and the performance evaluation uses machine learning algorithms such as random forest, fuzzy logic, and neural networks. The study aims to contribute to the control of Lassa fever, which is achievable through the combined efforts of public health professionals and geocomputational and machine learning tools. The research findings will potentially be more readily accepted and utilized by decision-makers for the attainment of Lassa fever elimination.

Keywords: geo-computational model, lassa fever dynamics, lassa fever, outbreak prediction, nigeria

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1218 Heterogeneous Catalytic Hydroesterification of Soybean Oil to Develop a Biodiesel Formation

Authors: O. Mowla, E. Kennedy, M. Stockenhuber

Abstract:

Finding alternative renewable resources of energy has attracted the attentions in consequence of limitation of the traditional fossil fuel resources, increasing of crude oil price and environmental concern over greenhouse gas emissions. Biodiesel (or Fatty Acid Methyl Esters (FAME)), an alternative energy source, is synthesised from renewable sources such as vegetable oils and animal fats and can be produced from waste oils. FAME can be produced via hydroesterification of oils. The process involves two stages. In the first stage of this process, fatty acids and glycerol are being obtained by hydrolysis of the feed stock oil. In the second stage, the recovered fatty acids are then esterified with an alcohol to methyl esters. The presence of a catalyst accelerates the rate of the hydroesterification reaction of oils. The overarching aim of this study is to find the effect of using zeolite as a catalyst in the heterogeneous hydroesterification of soybean oil. Both stages of the catalytic hydroesterification of soybean oil had been conducted at atmospheric and high-pressure conditions using reflux glass reactor and Parr reactor, respectively. The effect of operating parameters such as temperature and reaction time on the overall yield of biodiesel formation was also investigated.

Keywords: biodiesel, heterogeneous catalytic hydroesterification, soybean oil, zeolite

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1217 Compilation of Load Spectrum of Loader Drive Axle

Authors: Wei Yongxiang, Zhu Haoyue, Tang Heng, Yuan Qunwei

Abstract:

In order to study the preparation method of gear fatigue load spectrum for loaders, the load signal of four typical working conditions of loader is collected. The signal that reflects the law of load change is obtained by preprocessing the original signal. The torque of the drive axle is calculated by using the rain flow counting method. According to the operating time ratio of each working condition, the two-dimensional load spectrum based on the real working conditions of the drive axle of loader is established by the cycle extrapolation and synthesis method. The two-dimensional load spectrum is converted into one-dimensional load spectrum by means of the mean of torque equal damage method. Torque amplification includes the maximum load torque of the main reduction gear. Based on the theory of equal damage, the accelerated cycles are calculated. In this way, the load spectrum of the loading condition of the drive axle is prepared to reflect loading condition of the loader. The load spectrum can provide reference for fatigue life test and life prediction of loader drive axle.

Keywords: load spectrum, axle, torque, rain-flow counting method, extrapolation

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1216 In-situ Oxygen Enrichment for Underground Coal Gasification

Authors: Adesola O. Orimoloye, Edward Gobina

Abstract:

Membrane separation technology is still considered as an emerging technology in the mining sector and does not yet have the widespread acceptance that it has in other industrial sectors. Underground Coal Gasification (UCG), wherein coal is converted to gas in-situ, is a safer alternative to mining method that retains all pollutants underground making the process environmentally friendly. In-situ combustion of coal for power generation allows access to more of the physical global coal resource than would be included in current economically recoverable reserve estimates. Where mining is no longer taking place, for economic or geological reasons, controlled gasification permits exploitation of the deposit (again a reaction of coal to form a synthesis gas) of coal seams in situ. The oxygen supply stage is one of the most expensive parts of any gasification project but the use of membranes is a potentially attractive approach for producing oxygen-enriched air. In this study, a variety of cost-effective membrane materials that gives an optimal amount of oxygen concentrations in the range of interest was designed and tested at diverse operating conditions. Oxygen-enriched atmosphere improves the combustion temperature but a decline is observed if oxygen concentration exceeds optimum. Experimental result also reveals the preparatory method, apparatus and performance of the fabricated membrane.

Keywords: membranes, oxygen-enrichment, gasification, coal

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1215 Investigation of Optimal Parameter Settings in Super Duplex Stainless Steel Welding Welding

Authors: R. M. Chandima Ratnayake, Daniel Dyakov

Abstract:

Super steel materials play vital role in construction and fabrication of structural, piping and pipeline components. They enable to minimize the life cycle costs in assuring the integrity of onshore and offshore operating systems. In this context, Duplex stainless steel (DSS) material related welding on constructions and fabrications play a significant role in maintaining and assuring integrity at an optimal expenditure over the life cycle of production and process systems as well as associated structures. In DSS welding, the factors such as gap geometry, shielding gas supply rate, welding current, and type of the welding process play a vital role on the final joint performance. Hence, an experimental investigation has been performed using engineering robust design approach (ERDA) to investigate the optimal settings that generate optimal super DSS (i.e. UNS S32750) joint performance. This manuscript illustrates the mathematical approach and experimental design, optimal parameter settings and results of verification experiment.

Keywords: duplex stainless steel welding, engineering robust design, mathematical framework, optimal parameter settings

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1214 Security as Human Value: Issue of Human Rights in Indian Sub-Continental Operations

Authors: Pratyush Vatsala, Sanjay Ahuja

Abstract:

The national security and human rights are related terms as there is nothing like absolute security or absolute human right. If we are committed to security, human right is a problem and also a solution, and if we deliberate on human rights, security is a problem but also part of the solution. Ultimately, we have to maintain a balance between the two co-related terms. As more and more armed forces are being deployed by the government within the nation for maintaining peace and security, using force against its own citizen, the search for a judicious balance between intent and action needs to be emphasized. Notwithstanding that a nation state needs complete political independence; the search for security is a driving force behind unquestioned sovereignty. If security is a human value, it overlaps the value of freedom, order, and solidarity. Now, the question needs to be explored, to what extent human rights can be compromised in the name of security in Kashmir or Mizoram like places. The present study aims to explore the issue of maintaining a balance between the use of power and good governance as human rights, providing security as a human value. This paper has been prepared with an aim of strengthening the understanding of the complex and multifaceted relationship between human rights and security forces operating for conflict management and identifies some of the critical human rights issues raised in the context of security forces operations highlighting the relevant human rights principles and standards in which Security as human value be respected at all times and in particular in the context of security forces operations in India.

Keywords: Kashmir, Mizoram, security, value, human right

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1213 Entrepreneurship as a Strategy for National Development and Attainment of Millennium Development Goals (MDGs)

Authors: Udokporo Emeka Leonard

Abstract:

The thrust of this paper is to examine how entrepreneurship can assist in the attainment of the first goal among the MDGs – eradication of extreme poverty and hunger in Nigeria. The paper discusses how national development can be driven through employment creation and wealth generation that can lead to reduction in widespread poverty so as to attain one crucial target, in fewer years. The task before Nigeria is certainly a herculean one; it is, in fact a race against time. However, in view of the clear and present danger that the increasing rate of poverty portends for our democracy and our nation, is a race we must; for it is a time bomb on our hands. The paper has been structured into sections; with the introduction as section one. Section two discusses the concept of entrepreneurship; Section three examines the link between entrepreneurship and economic development, while section four examines the challenges facing entrepreneurship in Nigeria. In section five, measures and recommendations to boost entrepreneurship that can drive economic development that translates into poverty reduction and employment creation in Nigeria are suggested. This work is a literature review with some understanding of current trends and situations. It outlines some of the difficulties facing entrepreneurship in Nigeria as the operating environment, inadequate understanding and skewed incentive. It also makes recommendations on possible ways to significantly reduce poverty in 2015.

Keywords: development, entrepreneur, Nigeria, poverty

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1212 Eco-Drive Predictive Analytics

Authors: Sharif Muddsair, Eisels Martin, Giesbrecht Eugenie

Abstract:

With development of society increase the demand for the movement of people also increases gradually. The various modes of the transport in different extent which expat impacts, which depends on mainly technical-operating conditions. The up-to-date telematics systems provide the transport industry a revolutionary. Appropriate use of these systems can help to substantially improve the efficiency. Vehicle monitoring and fleet tracking are among services used for improving efficiency and effectiveness of utility vehicle. There are many telematics systems which may contribute to eco-driving. Generally, they can be grouped according to their role in driving cycle. • Before driving - eco-route selection, • While driving – Advanced driver assistance, • After driving – remote analysis. Our point of interest is regulated in third point [after driving – remote analysis]. TS [Telematics-system] make it possible to record driving patterns in real time and analysis the data later on, So that driver- classification-specific hints [fast driver, slow driver, aggressive driver…)] are given to imitate eco-friendly driving style. Together with growing number of vehicle and development of information technology, telematics become an ‘active’ research subject in IT and the car industry. Telematics has gone a long way from providing navigation solution/assisting the driver to become an integral part of the vehicle. Today’s telematics ensure safety, comfort and become convenience of the driver.

Keywords: internet of things, iot, connected vehicle, cv, ts, telematics services, ml, machine learning

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1211 A Model-Based Approach for Energy Performance Assessment of a Spherical Stationary Reflector/Tracking Absorber Solar Concentrator

Authors: Rosa Christodoulaki, Irene Koronaki, Panagiotis Tsekouras

Abstract:

The aim of this study is to analyze the energy performance of a spherical Stationary Reflector / Tracking Absorber (SRTA) solar concentrator. This type of collector consists of a segment of a spherical mirror placed in a stationary position facing the sun and a cylindrical absorber that tracks the sun by a simple pivoting motion about the center of curvature of the reflector. The energy analysis is performed through the development of a dynamic simulation model in TRNSYS software that calculates the annual heat production and the efficiency of the SRTA solar concentrator. The effect of solar concentrator design features and characteristics, such the reflector material, the reflector diameter, the receiver type, the solar radiation level and the concentration ratio, are discussed in details. Moreover, the energy performance curve of the SRTA solar concentrator, for various temperature differences between the mean fluid temperature and the ambient temperature and radiation intensities is drawn. The results are shown in diagrams, visualizing the effect of solar, optical and thermal parameters to the overall performance of the SRTA solar concentrator throughout the year. The analysis indicates that the SRTA solar concentrator can operate efficiently under a wide range of operating conditions.

Keywords: concentrating solar collector, energy analysis , stationary reflector, tracking absorber

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1210 Forecasting 24-Hour Ahead Electricity Load Using Time Series Models

Authors: Ramin Vafadary, Maryam Khanbaghi

Abstract:

Forecasting electricity load is important for various purposes like planning, operation, and control. Forecasts can save operating and maintenance costs, increase the reliability of power supply and delivery systems, and correct decisions for future development. This paper compares various time series methods to forecast 24 hours ahead of electricity load. The methods considered are the Holt-Winters smoothing, SARIMA Modeling, LSTM Network, Fbprophet, and Tensorflow probability. The performance of each method is evaluated by using the forecasting accuracy criteria, namely, the mean absolute error and root mean square error. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) residential energy consumption data is used to train the models. The results of this study show that the SARIMA model is superior to the others for 24 hours ahead forecasts. Furthermore, a Bagging technique is used to make the predictions more robust. The obtained results show that by Bagging multiple time-series forecasts, we can improve the robustness of the models for 24 hours ahead of electricity load forecasting.

Keywords: bagging, Fbprophet, Holt-Winters, LSTM, load forecast, SARIMA, TensorFlow probability, time series

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1209 An Immune-Inspired Web Defense Architecture

Authors: Islam Khalil, Amr El-Kadi

Abstract:

With the increased use of web technologies, microservices, and Application Programming Interface (API) for integration between systems, and with the development of containerization of services on the operating system level as a method of isolating system execution and for easing the deployment and scaling of systems, there is a growing need as well as opportunities for providing platforms that improve the security of such services. In our work, we propose an architecture for a containerization platform that utilizes various concepts derived from the human immune system. The goal of the proposed containerization platform is to introduce the concept of slowing down or throttling suspected malicious digital pathogens (intrusions) to reduce their damage footprint while providing more opportunities for forensic inspection of suspected pathogens in addition to the ability to snapshot, rollback, and recover from possible damage. The proposed platform also leverages existing intrusion detection algorithms by integrating and orchestrating their cooperative operation for more effective intrusion detection. We show how this model reduces the damage footprint of intrusions and gives a greater time window for forensic investigation. Moreover, during our experiments, our proposed platform was able to uncover unintentional system design flaws that resulted in internal DDoS-like attacks by submodules of the system itself rather than external intrusions.

Keywords: containers, human immunity, intrusion detection, security, web services

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1208 Improvement of Egyptian Vacuum Distillates by Solvent Dewaxing

Authors: Ehssan M. R. Nassef

Abstract:

De-waxing of vacuum distillates by using solvent was investigated in the present study. The present work deals with studying solvent dewaxing system which have been developed to give better dewaxing performance with respect to the important factors in the choice of solvents which are good solubility of oil in the solvent and low solubility of wax in the solvent. In this study, solvent dewaxing process using Methyl Ethyl Ketone (MEK) and toluene are used for Egyptian vacuum distillates using two types of distillates. The effect of varying the composition of(MEK to toluene) on the percent yield of the oil, percent of wax, pour point, refractive index at 20 and 70°C, viscosity at 40 and 100°C, viscosity index and specific gravity of the oil produced for the two types of distillates (I & II) were evaluated. In the present study, the operating conditions of solvent dewaxing using MEK toluene mixture achieved the best pour point at -15°C for distillate I at (1:1) solvent composition mixture. At the same ratio of MEK to toluene the best specific gravity of oil produced changed from 0.871 to 0.8802, with refractive index of 1.84. Percent yield of 65% for oil was obtained. The results for distillate II, of higher specific gravity, are comparatively higher than those for distillate I. The effect of temperature was also investigated and the best temperature was -20°C.

Keywords: dewaxing, solvent dewaxing, pour point, lubricating oil production, wax

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1207 Readiness of Thai Restaurant in Bangkok in Applying for Certification of Halal Food Services Standard for Tourism

Authors: Pongsiri Kingkan

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This research aims to study the Readiness of Thai Restaurant in Bangkok in Applying for Certification of Halal Food Services Standard for Tourism. This research was conduct by using mix methodology; both quantitative and qualitative data were used. 420 questionnaires were used as tools to collected data from the samples, the restaurant employees. The results were divided into two parts, the demographic data and the Readiness of Thai Restaurant in Bangkok in Applying for Certification of Halal Food Services Standard for Tourism. The majority of samples are single female age between 18–30 years old, who earn about 282.40 US dollars a month. The result of Thai restaurant readiness study demonstrated that readiness in foods and restaurant operating processes were scored at the lowest level. Readiness in social responsibility, food contact persons and food materials were rated at the low level. The readiness of utensils and kitchen tools, waste management, environmental management, and the availability of space to implement the establishment of halal food were scored at the average level. Location readiness, foods service safety and the relationship with the local community were rated at high level. But interestingly there is none of them rated at the highest level.

Keywords: availability, Bangkok, halal, Thai restaurant, readiness

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1206 Development of Trigger Tool to Identify Adverse Drug Events From Warfarin Administered to Patient Admitted in Medical Wards of Chumphae Hospital

Authors: Puntarikorn Rungrattanakasin

Abstract:

Objectives: To develop the trigger tool to warn about the risk of bleeding as an adverse event from warfarin drug usage during admission in Medical Wards of Chumphae Hospital. Methods: A retrospective study was performed by reviewing the medical records for the patients admitted between June 1st,2020- May 31st, 2021. ADEs were evaluated by Naranjo’s algorithm. The international normalized ratio (INR) and events of bleeding during admissions were collected. Statistical analyses, including Chi-square test and Reciever Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve for optimal INR threshold, were used for the study. Results: Among the 139 admissions, the INR range was found to vary between 0.86-14.91, there was a total of 15 bleeding events, out of which 9 were mild, and 6 were severe. The occurrence of bleeding started whenever the INR was greater than 2.5 and reached the statistical significance (p <0.05), which was in concordance with the ROC curve and yielded 100 % sensitivity and 60% specificity in the detection of a bleeding event. In this regard, the INR greater than 2.5 was considered to be an optimal threshold to alert promptly for bleeding tendency. Conclusions: The INR value of greater than 2.5 (>2.5) would be an appropriate trigger tool to warn of the risk of bleeding for patients taking warfarin in Chumphae Hospital.

Keywords: trigger tool, warfarin, risk of bleeding, medical wards

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1205 Data Science-Based Key Factor Analysis and Risk Prediction of Diabetic

Authors: Fei Gao, Rodolfo C. Raga Jr.

Abstract:

This research proposal will ascertain the major risk factors for diabetes and to design a predictive model for risk assessment. The project aims to improve diabetes early detection and management by utilizing data science techniques, which may improve patient outcomes and healthcare efficiency. The phase relation values of each attribute were used to analyze and choose the attributes that might influence the examiner's survival probability using Diabetes Health Indicators Dataset from Kaggle’s data as the research data. We compare and evaluate eight machine learning algorithms. Our investigation begins with comprehensive data preprocessing, including feature engineering and dimensionality reduction, aimed at enhancing data quality. The dataset, comprising health indicators and medical data, serves as a foundation for training and testing these algorithms. A rigorous cross-validation process is applied, and we assess their performance using five key metrics like accuracy, precision, recall, F1-score, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC). After analyzing the data characteristics, investigate their impact on the likelihood of diabetes and develop corresponding risk indicators.

Keywords: diabetes, risk factors, predictive model, risk assessment, data science techniques, early detection, data analysis, Kaggle

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1204 Experimental Study of LPG Diffusion Flame at Elevated Preheated Air Temperatures

Authors: Ahmed A. El-Kafy Amer, H. M. Gad, A. I. Ibrahim, S. I. Abdel-Mageed, T. M. Farag

Abstract:

This paper represents an experimental study of LPG diffusion flame at elevated air preheated temperatures. The flame is stabilized in a vertical water-cooled combustor by using air swirler. An experimental test rig was designed to investigate the different operating conditions. The burner head is designed so that the LPG fuel issued centrally and surrounded by the swirling air issues from an air swirler. There are three air swirlers having the same dimensions but having different blade angles to give different swirl numbers of 0.5, 0.87 and 1.5. The combustion air was heated electrically before entering the combustor up to a temperature about 500 K. Three air to fuel mass ratios of 30, 40 and 50 were also studied. The effect of air preheated temperature, swirl number and air to fuel mass ratios on the temperature maps, visible flame length, high temperature region (size) and exhaust species concentrations are studied. Some results show that as the air preheated temperature increases, the volume of high temperature region also increased but the flame length decreased. Increasing the air preheated temperature, EINOx, EICO2 and EIO2 increased, while EICO decreased. Increasing the air preheated temperature from 300 to 500 K, for all air swirl numbers used, the highest increase in EINOx, EICO2 and EIO2 are 141, 4 and 65%, respectively.

Keywords: air preheated temperature, air swirler, flame length, emission index

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1203 CVOIP-FRU: Comprehensive VoIP Forensics Report Utility

Authors: Alejandro Villegas, Cihan Varol

Abstract:

Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP) products is an emerging technology that can contain forensically important information for a criminal activity. Without having the user name and passwords, this forensically important information can still be gathered by the investigators. Although there are a few VoIP forensic investigative applications available in the literature, most of them are particularly designed to collect evidence from the Skype product. Therefore, in order to assist law enforcement with collecting forensically important information from variety of Betamax VoIP tools, CVOIP-FRU framework is developed. CVOIP-FRU provides a data gathering solution that retrieves usernames, contact lists, as well as call and SMS logs from Betamax VoIP products. It is a scripting utility that searches for data within the registry, logs and the user roaming profiles in Windows and Mac OSX operating systems. Subsequently, it parses the output into readable text and html formats. One superior way of CVOIP-FRU compared to the other applications that due to intelligent data filtering capabilities and cross platform scripting back end of CVOIP-FRU, it is expandable to include other VoIP solutions as well. Overall, this paper reveals the exploratory analysis performed in order to find the key data paths and locations, the development stages of the framework, and the empirical testing and quality assurance of CVOIP-FRU.

Keywords: betamax, digital forensics, report utility, VoIP, VoIPBuster, VoIPWise

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1202 One-off Separation of Multiple Types of Oil-in-Water Emulsions with Surface-Engineered Graphene-Based Multilevel Structure Materials

Authors: Han Longxiang

Abstract:

In the process of treating industrial oil wastewater with complex components, the traditional treatment methods (flotation, coagulation, microwave heating, etc.) often produce high operating costs, secondary pollution, and other problems. In order to solve these problems, the materials with high flux and stability applied to surfactant-stabilized emulsions separation have gained huge attention in the treatment of oily wastewater. Nevertheless, four stable oil-in-water emulsions can be formed due to different surfactants (surfactant-free, anionic surfactant, cationic surfactant, and non-ionic surfactant), and the previous advanced materials can only separate one or several of them, cannot effectively separate in one step. Herein, a facile synthesis method of graphene-based multilevel filter materials (GMFM) can efficiently separate the oil-in-water emulsions stabilized with different surfactants only through its gravity. The prepared materials with high stability of 20 cycles show a high flux of ~ 5000 L m-2 h-1 with a high separation efficiency of > 99.9 %. GMFM can effectively separate the emulsion stabilized by mixed surfactants and oily wastewater from factories. The results indicate that the GMFM has a wide range of applications in oil-in-water emulsions separation in industry and environmental science.

Keywords: emulsion, filtration, graphene, one-step

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1201 Oxidation Behavior of Ferritic Stainless Steel Interconnects Modified Using Nanoparticles of Rare-Earth Elements under Operating Conditions Specific to Solid Oxide Electrolyzer Cells

Authors: Łukasz Mazur, Kamil Domaradzki, Bartosz Kamecki, Justyna Ignaczak, Sebastian Molin, Aleksander Gil, Tomasz Brylewski

Abstract:

The rising global power consumption necessitates the development of new energy storage solutions. Prospective technologies include solid oxide electrolyzer cells (SOECs), which convert surplus electrical energy into hydrogen. An electrolyzer cell consists of a porous anode, and cathode, and a dense electrolyte. Power output is increased by connecting cells into stacks using interconnects. Interconnects are currently made from high-chromium ferritic steels – for example, Crofer 22 APU – which exhibit high oxidation resistance and a thermal expansion coefficient that is similar to that of electrode materials. These materials have one disadvantage – their area-specific resistance (ASR) gradually increases due to the formation of a Cr₂O₃ scale on their surface as a result of oxidation. The chromia in the scale also reacts with the water vapor present in the reaction media, forming volatile chromium oxyhydroxides, which in turn react with electrode materials and cause their deterioration. The electrochemical efficiency of SOECs thus decreases. To mitigate this, the interconnect surface can be modified with protective-conducting coatings of spinel or other materials. The high prices of SOEC components -especially the Crofer 22 APU- have prevented their widespread adoption. More inexpensive counterparts, therefore, need to be found, and their properties need to be enhanced to make them viable. Candidates include the Nirosta 4016/1,4016 low-chromium ferritic steel with a chromium content of just 16.3 wt%. This steel's resistance to high-temperature oxidation was improved by depositing Gd₂O₃ nanoparticles on its surface via either dip coating or electrolysis. Modification with CeO₂ or Ce₀.₉Y₀.₁O₂ nanoparticles deposited by means of spray pyrolysis was also tested. These methods were selected because of their low cost and simplicity of application. The aim of this study was to investigate the oxidation kinetics of Nirosta 4016/1,4016 modified using the afore-mentioned methods and to subsequently measure the obtained samples' ASR. The samples were oxidized for 100 h in the air as well as air/H₂O and Ar/H₂/H₂O mixtures at 1073 K. Such conditions reflect those found in the anode and cathode operating space during real-life use of SOECs. Phase and chemical composition and the microstructure of oxidation products were determined using XRD and SEM-EDS. ASR was measured over the range of 623-1073 K using a four-point, two-probe DC technique. The results indicate that the applied nanoparticles improve the oxidation resistance and electrical properties of the studied layered systems. The properties of individual systems varied significantly depending on the applied reaction medium. Gd₂O₃ nanoparticles improved oxidation resistance to a greater degree than either CeO₂ or Ce₀.₉Y₀.₁O₂ nanoparticles. On the other hand, the cerium-containing nanoparticles improved electrical properties regardless of the reaction medium. The ASR values of all surface-modified steel samples were below the 0.1 Ω.cm² threshold set for interconnect materials, which was exceeded in the case of the unmodified reference sample. It can be concluded that the applied modifications increased the oxidation resistance of Nirosta 4016/1.4016 to a level that allows its use as SOEC interconnect material. Acknowledgments: Funding of Research project supported by program "Excellence initiative – research university" for the AGH University of Krakow" is gratefully acknowledged (TB).

Keywords: cerium oxide, ferritic stainless steel, gadolinium oxide, interconnect, SOEC

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1200 Dairy Wastewater Remediation Using Electrochemical Oxidation on Boron Doped Diamond (BDD) Anode

Authors: Arwa Abdelhay, Inshad Jum’h, Abeer Albsoul, Khalideh Alrawashdeh, Dina Al Tarazi

Abstract:

Treated wastewater reuse has been considered recently as one of the successful management strategies to overcome water shortage in countries suffering from water scarcity. The non-readily biodegradable and recalcitrant pollutants in wastewater cannot be destructed by conventional treatment methods. This paper deals with the electrochemical treatment of dairy wastewater using a promising non-conventional Boron-Doped Diamond (BDD) anode. During the electrochemical process, different operating parameters were investigated, such as electrolysis time, current density, supporting electrolyte, chemical oxygen demand (COD), turbidity as well as absorbance/color. The experimental work revealed that electrochemical oxidation carried out with no added electrolyte has significantly reduced the COD, turbidity, and color (absorbance) by 72%, 76%, and 78% respectively. Results also showed that raising the current density from 5.1 mA/cm² to 7.7 mA/cm² has boosted COD, and color removal to 82.5%, and 83% respectively. However, the current density did not show any significant effect on the turbidity. Interestingly, it was observed that adding Na₂SO₄ and FeCl₃ as supporting electrolytes brought the COD removal to 91% and 97% respectively. Likewise, turbidity and color removal has been enhanced by the addition of the same supporting electrolytes.

Keywords: boron doped-diamond anode, dairy wastewater, electrochemical oxidation, supporting electrolytes

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1199 Ex (War) Machina: Arab Spring

Authors: Deniz Alca

Abstract:

This research aims to study the themes of autonomy, democracy and the legitimacy of power under the headline of Arab Spring. After the first wave of Arab Spring, among the frequently mentioned ideals of self-recognition, awakening, democracy, autonomy, freedom etc. main concern of the border neighbors and the western governments was to see a “legitimate power.” Although the metaphor of spring was still pointing at emancipation, the principal focus was mostly not on the people but on the governments. So the question of what makes a government legitimate has come to the forefront. However, democracy and freedom, seems to be the main subject matters of the discussions, this rush about establishment of “legitimate governments” lead other countries, to indulge or worse endorse armed oppositionists. So essence of “power” changed from legitimate to rulership. It seems that the civil initiative or autonomy and clearly democracy are still far away from us. The need to a savior is overpowering. This cultural and traditional and almost hereditary miss orientation of the people, both the ones who are playing the role of god and the ones who believed the inevitable need to be freed by someone else, seems to be leading the Arabs to a new autocracy or worse. Middle East is waiting for the ex machina to operate. But what it gets is a spreading warfare. This darkness falling down on Middle East under the concept of spring may be explained by the confrontation of the concepts of emancipation and liberation. So the question is, if the era of emancipation really over or is there still a chance for autonomy and grassroots democracy operating as constituent power?

Keywords: autonomy, awakening, civil initiative, democracy, emancipation, legitimacy, liberation

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1198 Reliability Analysis of a Life Support System in a Public Aquarium

Authors: Mehmet Savsar

Abstract:

Complex Life Support Systems (LSS) are used in all large commercial and public aquariums in order to keep the fish alive. Reliabilities of individual equipment, as well as the complete system, are extremely important and critical since the life and safety of important fish depend on these life support systems. Failure of some critical device or equipment, which do not have redundancy, results in negative consequences and affects life support as a whole. In this paper, we have considered a life support system in a large public aquarium in Kuwait Scientific Center and presented a procedure and analysis to show how the reliability of such systems can be estimated by using appropriate tools and collected data. We have also proposed possible improvements for systems reliability. In particular, addition of parallel components and spare parts are considered and the numbers of spare parts needed for each component to achieve a required reliability during specified lead time are calculated. The results show that significant improvements in system reliability can be achieved by operating some LSS components in parallel and having certain numbers of spares available in the spare parts inventories. The procedures and the results presented in this paper are expected to be useful for aquarium engineers and maintenance managers dealing with LSS.

Keywords: life support systems, aquariums, reliability, failures, availability, spare parts

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