Search results for: HVOF (High Velocity Oxygen Fuel)

Authors: Jhe-Hao Huang, Kun-Da Wu, Wei-Cheng Shih, Jui-Pin Hung

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This study presented the investigation on the dynamic characteristics of a spindle tool system by experimental and finite element modeling approaches. As well known facts, the machining stability is greatly determined by the dynamic characteristics of the spindle tool system. Therefore, understanding the factors affecting dynamic behavior of a spindle tooling system is a prerequisite in dominating the final machining performance of machine tool system. To this purpose, a physical spindle unit was employed to assess the dynamic characteristics by vibration tests. Then, a three-dimensional finite element model of a high-speed spindle system integrated with tool holder was created to simulate the dynamic behaviors. For modeling the angular contact bearings, a series of spring elements were introduced between the inner and outer rings. The spring constant can be represented by the contact stiffness of the rolling bearing based on Hertz theory. The interface characteristic between spindle nose and tool holder taper can be quantified from the comparison of the measurements and predictions. According to the results obtained from experiments and finite element predictions, the vibration behavior of the spindle is dominated by the bending deformation of the spindle shaft in different modes, which is further determined by the stiffness of the bearings in spindle housing. Also, the spindle unit with tool holder shows a different dynamic behavior from that of spindle without tool holder. This indicates the interface property between tool holder and spindle nose plays an dominance on the dynamic characteristics the spindle tool system. Overall, the dynamic behaviors the spindle with and without tool holder can be successfully investigated through the finite element model proposed in this study. The prediction accuracy is determined by the modeling of the rolling interface of ball bearings in spindles and the interface characteristics between tool holder and spindle nose. Besides, identifications of the interface characteristics of a ball bearing and spindle tool holder are important for the refinement of the spindle tooling system to achieve the optimum machining performance.

Keywords: contact stiffness, dynamic characteristics, spindle, tool holder interface

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Authors: Yan Wang, Guowei Chen, Gang Wang

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Soil microbial diversity is one of the important parameters to assess the soil fertility and soil health, even stability of the ecosystem. In this paper, we aim to reveal the soil microbial difference in rhizosphere and root zone, even to pick the special biomarkers influenced by the long term tillage practices, which included four treatments of no-tillage, ridge tillage, continuous cropping with corn and crop rotation with corn and soybean. Here, high-throughput sequencing was performed to investigate the difference of bacteria in rhizosphere and root zone. The results showed a very significant difference of species richness between rhizosphere and root zone soil at the same crop rotation system (p < 0.01), and also significant difference of species richness was found between continuous cropping with corn and corn-soybean rotation treatment in the rhizosphere statement, no-tillage and ridge tillage in root zone soils. Implied by further beta diversity analysis, both tillage methods and crop rotation systems influence the soil microbial diversity and community structure in varying degree. The composition and community structure of microbes in rhizosphere and root zone soils were clustered distinctly by the beta diversity (p < 0.05). Linear discriminant analysis coupled with effect size (LEfSe) analysis of total taxa in rhizosphere picked more than 100 bacterial taxa, which were significantly more abundant than that in root zone soils, whereas the number of biomarkers was lower between the continuous cropping with corn and crop rotation treatment, the same pattern was found at no-tillage and ridge tillage treatment. Bacterial communities were greatly influenced by main environmental factors in large scale, which is the result of biological adaptation and acclimation, hence it is beneficial for optimizing agricultural practices.

Keywords: tillage methods, biomarker, biodiversity, rhizosphere

Procedia PDF Downloads 163

Authors: Brian Connett, Bryan O'Halloran

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Systems assets within critical infrastructures were seemingly safe from the exploitation or attack by nefarious cyberspace actors. Now, critical infrastructure is a target and the resources to exploit the cyber physical systems exist. These resources are characterized in terms of patience, stealth, replication-ability and extraordinary robustness. System owners are obligated to maintain a high level of protection measures. The difficulty lies in knowing when to fortify a critical infrastructure against an impending attack. Models currently exist that demonstrate the value of knowing the attacker’s capabilities in the cyber realm and the strength of the target. The shortcomings of these models are that they are not designed to respond to the inherent fast timing of an attack, an impetus that can be derived based on open-source reporting, common knowledge of exploits of and the physical architecture of the infrastructure. A useful model will inform systems owners how to align infrastructure architecture in a manner that is responsive to the capability, willingness and timing of the attacker. This research group has used an existing theoretical model for estimating parameters, and through analysis, to develop a decision tool for would-be target owners. The continuation of the research develops further this model by estimating the variable parameters. Understanding these parameter estimations will uniquely position the decision maker to posture having revealed the vulnerabilities of an attacker’s, persistence and stealth. This research explores different approaches to improve on current attacker-defender models that focus on cyber threats. An existing foundational model takes the point of view of an attacker who must decide what cyber resource to use and when to use it to exploit a system vulnerability. It is valuable for estimating parameters for the model, and through analysis, develop a decision tool for would-be target owners.

Keywords: critical infrastructure, cyber physical systems, modeling, exploitation

Procedia PDF Downloads 192

Authors: Jemini Vyas, Oluwatobi Adeyoe, Jenny Branagan, Chandran Tanabalan, John Beatty, Aakash Pai

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Introduction: The development of robotic surgery has accelerated centralisation to tertiary centres, where robotic radical prostatectomy (RP) is offered. The purpose of concentrating treatment in high volume specialist centres is to improve the quality of care and patient outcomes. The aim of this study was to assess the impact on clinical outcomes of centralisation for locally diagnosed patients undergoing RP. Methods: Clinical outcomes for 169 consecutive laparoscopic & open RP pre-centralisation were retrospectively compared with 50 consecutive robotic RP conducted over a similar period post-centralisation. Preoperative risk stratification and time to surgery were collected. Perioperative outcomes, including length of stay (LOS) and complications, were collated. Post-operative outcomes, including erectile dysfunction (ED), biochemical recurrence (BCR), and urinary continence, were assessed. Results: Preoperative risk stratification showed no difference between the two groups. The median time from diagnosis to treatment was similar between the two groups (pre-centralisation, 121 days, post-centralisation, 117 days). The mean length of stay (pre-centralisation, 2.1 days, post-centralisation, 1.6 days) showed no significant difference (p=0.073). Proportion of overall complications (pre-centralisation, 11.4%, post-centralisation, 8.7%) and complications, above Clavien-Dindo 2, were similar between the two groups (pre-centralisation1.2%, post-centralisation 2.2%). Post operative functional parameters, including continence and ED, were comparable. Five-year BCR free rate was 78% for the pre-centralisation group and 79% for the post centralisation group. Conclusion: For our cohort of patients, clinical outcomes have remained static during centralisation. It is imperative that centralisation is accompanied by increased capacity, streamlining of pathways, and training to ensure that improved quality of care is achieved. Our institution has newly acquired a robot, and prospectively studying this data may support the reversal of centralisation for RP surgery.

Keywords: prostate, cancer, prostatectomy, clinical

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Authors: Tuba Senel Zor, Oktay Aslan

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With current trends in nanoscience and nanotechnology (NST), scientists have paid much attention to education and nanoliteracy in parallel with the developments on these fields. To understand the advances in NST research requires a population with a high degree of science literacy. All citizens should soon need nanoliteracy in order to navigate some of the important science-based issues faced to their everyday lives. While the fields of NST are advancing rapidly and raising their societal significance, general public’s awareness of these fields has remained at a low level. Moreover, students enrolled different education levels and teachers don’t have awareness at expected level. This problem may be stemmed from inadequate education and training. To remove the inadequacy, teachers have greatest duties and responsibilities. Especially science teachers at all levels need to be made aware of these developments and adequately prepared so that they are able to teach about these advances in a developmentally appropriate manner. If the teachers develop understanding and awareness of NST, they can also discuss the topic with their students. Therefore, the awareness and conceptual understandings of both the teachers who will teach science to students and the students who will be introduced about NST should be increased, and the necessary training should be provided. The aim of this study was to examine the effect of NST education on preservice science teachers’ awareness of NST. The study was designed in one group pre-test post-test quasi-experimental pattern. The study was conducted with 32 preservice science teachers attending the Elementary Science Education Program at a large Turkish university in central Anatolia. NST education was given during five weeks as two hours per week. Nanoscience and Nanotechnology Awareness Questionnaire was used as data collected tool and was implemented for pre-test and post-test. The collected data were analyzed using Statistical package for the Social Science (SPSS). The results of data analysis showed that there was a significant difference (z=6.25, p< .05) on NST awareness of preservice science teachers after implemented NST education. The results of the study indicate that NST education has an important effect for improving awareness of preservice science teachers on NST.

Keywords: awareness level, nanoliteracy, nanoscience and nanotechnology education, preservice science teachers

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Authors: Magy Atef Awad Attia

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The objective of this study was to study the effect of social stories on social interaction of students with autism. The sample was at level 5 student with autism, Another University Demonstration School student, who was diagnosed by the Physician as High Functioning Autism since he was able to read, write, calculate and was studying in inclusive classroom. However, he still had disability in social interaction to participate in social activity group and communication. He could not learn how to develop friendship or create relationship. He had inappropriate behavior in social context. He did not understand complex social situations. In addition, he did seemed to not know time and place. He was not able to understand feeling of oneself as well as the others. Consequently, he could not express his emotion appropriately. He did not understand or express his non-verbal language for communicating with friends. He lacked of common interest or emotion with nearby persons. He greeted inappropriately or was not interested in greeting. In addition, he did not have eye contact. He used inadequate language etc. He was elected by Purposive Sampling. His parents were willing to allow them to participate in this study. The research instruments were the lesson plan of social stories, and the picture book of social stories. The instruments used for data collection, were the social interaction evaluation of autistic students. This research was Experimental Research as One Group Pre-test, Post-test Design. For the Pre-test, the experiment was conducted by social stories. Then, the Post-test was implemented. The statistic used for data analysis. The research results were shown by scale. The results revealed that the autistic students taught by social stories indicated better social reaction after being taught by social stories.

Keywords: autism, autistic behavior, stability, harsh environments, techniques, thermal, properties, materials, applications, brittleness, fragility, disadvantages, bank, branches, profitability, setting prediction, effective target, measurement, evaluation, performance, commercial, business, sustainability, financial, system.

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Authors: Vladyslav Povoroznyuk, Larysa Martynyuk, Iryna Syzonenko, Liliya Martynyuk

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Medical, social, and economic relevance of osteoporosis is caused by reducing quality of life, increasing disability and mortality of the patients as a result of fractures due to the low-energy trauma. This study is aimed to examine the associations of metabolic syndrome components, bone mineral density (BMD) and trabecular bone score (TBS) in menopausal women with non-vertebral fractures. 1161 menopausal women aged 50-79 year-old were examined and divided into three groups: A included 419 women with increased body weight (BMI - 25.0-29.9 kg/m²), B – 442 females with obesity (BMI >29.9 kg/m²)i and C – 300 women with metabolic syndrome (diagnosis according to IDF criteria, 2005). BMD of lumbar spine (L1-L4), femoral neck, total body and forearm was investigated with usage of dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. The bone quality indexes were measured according to Med-Imaps installation. All analyses were performed using Statistical Package 6.0. BMD of lumbar spine (L1-L4), femoral neck, total body, and ultradistal radius was significant higher in women with obesity and metabolic syndrome compared to the pre-obese ones (p<0.001). TBS was significantly higher in women with increased body weight compared to obese and metabolic syndrome patients. Analysis showed significant positive correlation between waist circumference, triglycerides level and BMD of lumbar spine and femur. Significant negative association between serum HDL level and BMD of investigated sites was established. The TBS (L1-L4) indexes positively correlated with HDL (high-density lipoprotein) level. Despite the fact that BMD indexes were better in women with metabolic syndrome, the frequency of non-vertebral fractures was significantly higher in this group of patients.

Keywords: bone mineral density, trabecular bone score, metabolic syndrome, fracture

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Authors: Marianna Maiaru, Gregory M. Odegard

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During the processing of high-performance thermoset polymer matrix composites, chemical reactions occur during elevated pressure and temperature cycles, causing the constituent monomers to crosslink and form a molecular network that gradually can sustain stress. As the crosslinking process progresses, the material naturally experiences a gradual shrinkage due to the increase in covalent bonds in the network. Once the cured composite completes the cure cycle and is brought to room temperature, the thermal expansion mismatch of the fibers and matrix cause additional residual stresses to form. These compounded residual stresses can compromise the reliability of the composite material and affect the composite strength. Composite process modeling is greatly complicated by the multiscale nature of the composite architecture. At the molecular level, the degree of cure controls the local shrinkage and thermal-mechanical properties of the thermoset. At the microscopic level, the local fiber architecture and packing affect the magnitudes and locations of residual stress concentrations. At the macroscopic level, the layup sequence controls the nature of crack initiation and propagation due to residual stresses. The goal of this research is use molecular dynamics (MD) and finite element analysis (FEA) to predict the residual stresses in composite laminates and the corresponding effect on composite failure. MD is used to predict the polymer shrinkage and thermomechanical properties as a function of degree of cure. This information is used as input into FEA to predict the residual stresses on the microscopic level resulting from the complete cure process. Virtual testing is subsequently conducted to predict strength allowables. Experimental characterization is used to validate the modeling.

Keywords: molecular dynamics, finite element analysis, processing modeling, multiscale modeling

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Authors: Sujin Hong, Seokyoon Moon, Heejoong Kim, Yunseok Lee, Youngjune Park

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Gas hydrate is an inclusion compound in which a low-molecular-weight gas or organic molecule is trapped inside a three-dimensional lattice structure created by water-molecule via intermolecular hydrogen bonding. It is generally formed at low temperature and high pressure, and exists as crystal structures of cubic systems − structure I, structure II, and hexagonal system − structure H. Many efforts have been made to apply them to various energy and environmental fields such as gas transportation and storage, CO₂ capture and separation, and desalination of seawater. Particularly, studies on the behavior of gas hydrates by new organic materials for CO₂ storage and various applications are underway. In this study, thermodynamic and spectroscopic analyses of the gas hydrate system were performed focusing on cyclopentanol, an organic molecule that forms gas hydrate at relatively low pressure. The thermodynamic equilibria of CH₄ and CO₂ hydrate systems including cyclopentanol were measured and spectroscopic analyses of XRD and Raman were performed. The differences in thermodynamic systems and formation kinetics of CO₂ added cyclopentane, cyclopentanol and cyclopentanone hydrate systems were compared. From the thermodynamic point of view, cyclopentanol was found to be a hydrate promotor. Spectroscopic analyses showed that cyclopentanol formed a hydrate crystal structure of cubic structure II in the presence of CH₄ and CO₂. It was found that the differences in the functional groups among the organic guest molecules significantly affected the rate of hydrate formation and the total amounts of CO₂ stored in the hydrate systems. The total amount of CO₂ stored in the cyclopentanone hydrate was found to be twice that of the amount of CO₂ stored in the cyclopentane and the cyclopentanol hydrates. The findings are expected to open up new opportunity to develop the gas hydrate based wastewater desalination technology.

Keywords: gas hydrate, CO₂, separation, desalination, formation kinetics, thermodynamic equilibria

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Authors: Ouerdia Benbelkacem Belouanas

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Heterotrophic denitrification has been proven to be one of the most feasible processes for removing nitrate from waste water and drinking water. In this process, heterotrophic bacteria use organic carbon for both growth and as an electron source. Underground water pollution by nitrates become alarming in Algeria. A survey carried out revealed that the nitrate concentration is in continual increase. Studies in some region revealed contamination exceeding the recommended permissible dose which is 50 mg/L. Worrying values in the regions of Mascara, Ouled saber, El Eulma, Bouira and Algiers are respectively 72 mg/L, 75 mg/L, 97 mg/L, 102 mg/L, and 158 mg/L. High concentration of nitrate in drinking water is associated with serious health risks. Research on nitrate removal technologies from municipal water supplies is increasing because of nitrate contamination. Biological denitrification enables transformation of oxidized nitrogen compounds by a wide spectrum of heterotrophic bacteria into harmless nitrogen gas with accompanying carbon removal. Globally, denitrification is commonly employed in biological nitrogen removal processes to enhance water quality. The study investigated the valorization of a vegetable residue as a carbon source (dates nodes) in water treatment using the denitrification process. Throughout the study, the effect of inoculums addition, pH, and initial concentration of nitrates was also investigated. In this research, a natural organic substance: dates nodes were investigated as a carbon source in the biological denitrification of drinking water. This material acts as a solid substrate and bio-film carrier. The experiments were carried out in batch processes. Complete denitrification was achieved varied between 80 and 100% according to the type of process used. It was found that the nitrate removal rate based on our results, we concluded that the removal of organic matter and nitrogen compounds depended mainly on initial concentration of nitrate. The effluent pH was mainly affected by the C/N ratio, where a decrease increases pH.

Keywords: biofilm, carbon source, dates nodes, heterotrophic denitrification, nitrate, nitrite

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Authors: Ann Ying-An Chen, Yi-Lun Tsai, Hso-Chi Chaung

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An understanding of pathogens and the immune system has played an utmost important role in agricultural research for the development of vaccinations. The immunological synapse, cell to cell interaction play a crucial role in triggering the body's immune system, such as activation between antigen-presenting cells (APCs) and different subsets of T-cell. If these interactions are regulated appropriately, the host has the ability to defend itself against a wide spectrum of infectious pathogens. The aim of this study is to establish and to characterize a porcine immune synapse system by co-culturing T cell/APC. In this study, blood samples were collected from specific-pathogen-free piglets, and peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) were separated by using Ficoll-Pague. The PBMC were then stained with CD4 (FITC) and CD25 (PE) antibodies. Different subsets of T cells sorted by fluorescence-activated cell sorting flow cytometer were co-cultured for 24 hrs with alveolar macrophages, and the profiles of cytokine secretion and mRNA transcription levels of Toll-like receptors were examined after. Results showed that the three stages of immune synapse were clearly visible and identified under both transmission and scanning electron microscope (TEM and SEM). The significant interaction differences in toll-like receptor expressions within the co-cultured cell system were observed. The TLR7 mRNA expressions in CD4+CD25- cells were lower than those in CD4+CD25+ and CD4 -CD25+. Interestingly, the IL-10 production levels in CD4+CD25- cells (7.732 pg/mL) were significantly higher than those of CD4+CD25+ (2.636 pg/mL) and CD4 -CD25+ (2.48 pg/mL). These findings demonstrated that a clear understanding of the porcine immune synapse system can contribute greatly for further investigations on the mechanism of T-cell activation, which can benefit in the discovery of potential adjuvant candidate or effective antigen epitopes in the development of vaccinations with high efficacy.

Keywords: antigen-presenting cells, immune synapse, pig, T subsets, toll-like receptor

Procedia PDF Downloads 127

Authors: M. A. Munteanu, A. M. Lungu, A. I. Chivescu, V. Teodorescu, E. Tufanoiu, C. Nicolae, T. I. Nanea

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Introduction: Sodium-glucose co-transporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2i), which were first developed as antidiabetic medications, have demonstrated numerous positive benefits on the cardiovascular system, especially in the prevention of heart failure (HF). HF is a challenging, multifaceted disease that needs all-encompassing therapy. It should not be viewed as a limited form of heart illness but rather as a systemic disease that leads to multiple organ failure and death. SGLT2i is an extremely effective tool for treating HF by using its pleiotropic effects. In addition to its use in patients with diabetes mellitus who are at high cardiovascular risk or who have already experienced a cardiovascular event, SGLT2i administration has been shown to have positive effects on a variety of HF manifestations and stages, regardless of the patient's presence of diabetes mellitus. Material and Methods: According to the guide, 110 patients (83 males and 27 females) with heart failure with mildly reduced ejection fraction (HFmrEF), with T2D and neoplasia, were enrolled in the prospective study. The structural and functional state of the left ventricle myocardium and ejection fraction was assessed through echocardiography. Patients were randomized to receive once-daily dapagliflozin 10 mg. Results: Patients with HFmrEF were divided into 3 subgroups according to age. 7% (8) patients aged < 45 years, 35% (28) patients aged between 46-59 years, and 58% (74) patients aged> 60 years. The most prevalent comorbidities were hypertension (43.1%), coronary heart disease (40%), and obesity (33.2%). Study drug discontinuation and serious adverse events were not frequent in the subgroups, in either men or women, until now. Conclusions: SGLT-2 inhibitors are a novel class of antidiabetic agents that have demonstrated positive efficacy and safety outcomes in the setting of HFmrEF. Until now, in our study, dapagliflozin was safe and well-tolerated irrespective of sex.

Keywords: diabetes mellitus type 2, Sodium-glucose co-transporters-2 inhibitors, heart failure, neoplasia

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Authors: Sarmiza Stanca, Wolfgang Fritzsche, Christoph Krafft, Jürgen Popp

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Independent of the cell type a thin layer of a few nanometers thickness surrounds the cell interior as the cellular membrane. The transport of ions and molecules through the membrane is achieved in a very precise way by pores. Understanding the process of opening and closing the pores due to an electrochemical gradient across the membrane requires knowledge of the pore constitutive proteins. Recent reports prove the access to the molecular level of the cellular membrane by atomic force microscopy (AFM). This technique also permits an electrochemical study in the immediate vicinity of the tip. Specific molecules can be electrochemically localized in the natural cellular membrane. Our work aims to recognize the protein domains of the pores using an AFM probe as a miniaturized amperometric sensor, and to follow the protein behavior while changing the applied potential. The intensity of the current produced between the surface and the AFM probe is amplified and detected simultaneously with the surface imaging. The AFM probe plays the role of the working electrode and the substrate, a conductive glass on which the cells are grown, represent the counter electrode. For a better control of the electric potential on the probe, a third electrode Ag/AgCl wire is mounted in the circuit as a reference electrode. The working potential is applied between the electrodes with a programmable source and the current intensity in the circuit is recorded with a multimeter. The applied potential considers the overpotential at the electrode surface and the potential drop due to the current flow through the system. The reported method permits a high resolved electrochemical study of the protein domains on the living cell membrane. The amperometric map identifies areas of different current intensities on the pore depending on the applied potential. The reproducibility of this method is limited by the tip shape, the uncontrollable capacitance, which occurs at the apex and a potential local charge separation.

Keywords: AFM, sensor, membrane, pores, proteins

Procedia PDF Downloads 307

Authors: Myungkyu Park, Minkun Kim, Sunghoon Kim, Samgon Ryu

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Recently, research for reactive fabrics which have the characteristics of CWA (Chemical Warfare Agent) decomposition is being performed actively. The performance level of decomposition for CWA decomposition in various environmental condition is one of the critical factors in applicability as protective materials for NBC (Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical) protective clothing. In this study, results of performance test for CWA decomposition by reactive fabric made of electrospinning web and reactive particle are presented. Currently, the MOF (metal organic framework) type of UiO-66-NH₂ is frequently being studied as material for decomposing CWA especially blister agent HD [Bis(2-chloroethyl) sulfide]. When we test decomposition rate with electrospinning web made of PVB (Polyvinyl Butiral) polymer and UiO-66-NH₂ particle, we can get very high protective performance than the case other particles are applied. Furthermore, if the repellant surface fabric is added on reactive material as the component of protective fabric, the performance of layer by layered reactive fabric could be approached to the level of current NBC protective fabric for HD decomposition rate. Reactive fabric we used in this study is manufactured by electrospinning process of polymer which contains the reactive particle of UiO-66-NH₂, and we performed crystalizing process once again on that polymer fiber web in solvent systems as a second step for manufacturing reactive fabric. Three kinds of polymer materials are used in this process, but PVB was most suitable as an electrospinning fiber polymer considering the shape of product. The density of particle on fiber web and HD decomposition rate is enhanced by secondary crystallization compared with the results which are not processed. The amount of HD penetration by 24hr AVLAG (Aerosol Vapor Liquid Assessment Group) swatch test through the reactive fabrics with secondary crystallization and without crystallization is 24 and 146μg/cm² respectively. Even though all of the reactive fiber webs for this test are combined with repellant surface layer at outer side of swatch, the effects of secondary crystallization of particle for the reactive fiber web are remarkable.

Keywords: CWA, Chemical Warfare Agent, gas decomposition, particle growth, protective clothing, reactive fabric, swatch test

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Authors: Evangeline Mbah, Margret Okeke, Agbo Joseph

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Agriculture was primarily a rural activity in Nigeria, but due to increasing demand for food and jobs for many urban dwellers, it became necessary for urban households to embark on farming as a means of improving household food security and additional income for economic empowerment. Urban agriculture serves as a veritable tool for poverty reduction among people living in urban areas mostly low-income earners and unemployed. The survey was conducted to identify key challenges encountered by households in Makurdi metropolis of Benue state, Nigeria who are engaged in urban agriculture. A well-structured questionnaire was used to collect data from a sample of respondents used for the study. Data were analyzed using frequency, percentage, mean score and standard deviation. Results show that a greater percentage (46.0%) of the respondents engaged in cultivation of leafy vegetable, 22.0% cultivated cassava, 21.0% planted sweet potato, 18.0% cultivated tomato while 56.0% reared poultry, 23.0% kept goat, among others. Sources of agricultural information indicated by the respondents were family members/relations (85.0%), friends/neighbours (73.0%), radio (68.0%), extension agents (57.0%), etc. Major challenges encountered by the respondents in urban agriculture include inadequate size of farmland (M= 2.72), lack of access to credit facilities (M= 2.63), lack of funds (M= 2.50), high cost of labour (M= 2.49), insecurity of lands (M= 2.46), theft of crops at maturity (M= 2.38), lack of farm inputs such as improved varieties of seeds, fertilizer and exotic breeds of livestock (M= 2.23), destruction of crops by stray farm animals (M= 1.96), among others. The study recommends that there is a need for adequate provision of farm inputs by the government at all levels at a subsidized rate in order to reduce the cost of production and enhance optimum productivity.

Keywords: urban, agriculture, household, challenges, Makurdi, Nigeria

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Authors: Anastasios Manos, Despina Elisabeth Filippidou

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Introduction: Historical buildings are an inte-gral part of the cultural heritage of every place, and beyond the obvious need for protection against risks, they have specific requirements regarding the handling of hazards and disasters such as fire, floods, earthquakes, etc. Ensuring high levels of protection and safety for these buildings is impera-tive for two distinct but interconnected reasons: a) they themselves constitute cultural heritage, and b) they are often used as museums/cultural spaces, necessitating the protection of both human life (vis-itors and workers) and the cultural treasures they house. However, these buildings present serious constraints in implementing the necessary measures to protect them from destruction due to their unique architecture, construction methods, and/or the structural materials used in the past, which have created an existing condition that is sometimes challenging to reshape and operate within the framework of modern regulations and protection measures. One of the most devastating risks that threaten historical buildings is fire. Catastrophic fires demonstrate the need for timely evaluation of fire safety measures in historical buildings. Recog-nizing the criticality of protecting historical build-ings from the risk of fire, the Confederation of Fire Protection Associations in Europe (CFPA E) issued specific guidelines in 2013 (CFPA-E Guideline No 30:2013 F) for the fire protection of historical buildings at the European level. However, until now, few actions have been implemented towards leveraging modern technologies in the field of con-struction and maintenance of buildings, such as Building Information Modeling (BIM) and the Inter-net of Things (IoT), for the protection of historical buildings from risks like fires, floods, etc. The pro-ject BIM4Cult has bee developed in order to fill this gap. It is a tool for timely assessing and monitoring of the fire safety level of historical buildings using BIM and IoT technologies in an integrated manner. The tool serves as a decision support expert system for improving the fire safety of historical buildings by continuously monitoring, controlling and as-sessing critical risk factors for fire.

Keywords: Iot, fire, BIM, expert system

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Authors: Panrapee Suttiwan, Rewadee Watakakosol Arunya Tuicomepee, Sakkaphat T. Ngamake

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Alcohol consumption ranks among the top six of health-risk behaviors that lead to disability and death among Thai teenagers. Underage drinkers have higher health risks than their non-drinking peers do. This study, therefore, aimed to explore salient beliefs of Thai teenagers with alcohol reduction and cessation based on the Theory of Planned Behaviour theoretical framework. Participants were 225 high-school and vocational school students, most of whom (60.9%) consumed alcohol almost daily (5-6 times / week), and one-third of whom (33.8%) reported habitual moderate drink. The average age was 16.5 (SD = 0.9), and the average age of the first use of alcohol was 13.7 (SD = 2.2). Instrument was an open-ended questionnaire that elicited beliefs about having alcohol reduction / cessation in the past 12 months. Findings revealed salient benefit beliefs of alcohol reduction / cessation among the teens such as improved physical and mental health, accident and violence avoidance, less sexual risks, money and time saving, better academic performance, and improved relationships. In contrast, the teens identified several disadvantage beliefs such as deteriorating health, social awkwardness, lack of little fun, excitement, and experience, physical uneasiness, stress, and lack of self-confidence. Salient normative groups for alcohol reduction / cessation included parents, elder relatives, siblings, close friends, teachers, boy / girlfriends, and seniors / juniors at school. Situations influencing alcohol reduction / cessation included quarrels with boy / girlfriends, family conflicts, peer pressure, partying and socializing, festive holidays and anniversary celebration, and visiting entertainment places, etc. This study provides empirical evidence that help to identify normative attitudes towards alcohol reduction / cessation and may thus be an important knowledge for public health campaigns seeking to reduce alcohol consumption in this population.

Keywords: alcohol consumption reduction, cessation, salient belief, Thai teenagers

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Authors: Mohamed Abd Elfattah Ibraheem Elghrbawy

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Biodeterioration of cultural heritage is a complex process which is caused by the interaction of many physical, chemical and biological agents; the growth of microorganisms can cause staining, cracking, powdering, disfigurement and displacement of monuments material, which leads to the permanent loss of monuments material. Organisms causing biodeterioration on monuments have usually been controlled by chemical products (biocides). In order to overcome the impact of biocides on the environment, human health and monument substrates, alternative tools such as antimicrobial agents from natural products can be used for monuments conservation and protection. The problem is how to formulate antibacterial agents with high efficiency and low toxicity. Various types of biodegradable metal nanoparticles (MNPs) have many applications in plant extract delivery. So, Nano-encapsulation of metal and natural antimicrobial agents using polymers such as chitosan increases their efficacy, specificity and targeting ability. Green synthesis and characterization of metal nanoparticles such as silver with natural products extracted from some plants having antimicrobial properties, using the ecofriendly method one pot synthesis. Encapsulation of the new synthesized mixture using some biopolymers such as chitosan nanoparticles. The dispersions and homogeneity of the antimicrobial heterogeneous metal nanoparticles encapsulated by biopolymers will be characterized and confirmed by Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy (FTIR), Transmission Electron Microscopy (TEM), Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) and Zeta seizer. The effect of the antimicrobial biopolymer metal nano-formulations on normal human cell lines will be investigated to evaluate the environmental safety of these formulations. The antimicrobial toxic activity of the biopolymeric antimicrobial metal nanoparticles formulations will be will be investigated to evaluate their efficiency towards different pathogenic bacteria and fungi.

Keywords: antimicrobial, biodeterioration, chitosan, cultural heritage, silver

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Authors: Targba Aondowase

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Undocumented migration along Nigeria’s boarder with Cameroon, Chad and Niger is a key issue in tackling the human security challenges in the region as the security situation cannot be contained without proper boarder control. The paper adopts migration systems theory which asserts that migration alters the social, cultural, economic, and institutional conditions at both the sending and receiving ends to explain the influence of unregistered migrants on institutional changes as it affects the security situation in Northern Nigeria. It was found that undocumented migration is majorly influenced by poverty, illegal trade, wars and asylum. The study also discovers that Nigerian boarders are porous with over 250 footpaths that link directly to Cameroon, Chad and Niger, making the proliferation of small arms and light weapons a transnational organized crime in the region. These porous borders are unmanned by security operatives with limited government presence in the boarder communities. The study also found that undocumented immigrants are easily integrated into the northern communities due to common religious beliefs and race where they carry out normal and civic functions without obstruction. The paper concluded that the level of undocumented migration in Northern Nigeria is high due to unmanned and porous borders. The paper therefore recommended that the security agencies should be strengthened through adequate funding, innovative technology, sound policies and proficient processes that will help protect the country’s borders. The National Populations Commission and the National Identity Management Commission should be strengthened to have a good data base of the country’s citizens and there should be international cooperation between the neighbouring countries to tackle illegal migration and illegal trade along the borders. The findings and recommendations of this paper will serve as a guide towards curtailing the impact of undocumented migration on human security in Northern Nigeria.

Keywords: human security, impact, migration, undocumented

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Authors: Aikaterini Amanatidou

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We describe the case of a 20-year-old female patient diagnosed with Ehlers-Danlos Syndrome (EDS) who was scheduled to undergo a wisdom teeth extraction in outpatient surgery. EDS is a hereditary connective tissue disorder characterized by joint hypermobility, skin hyper-extensibility, and vascular and soft tissue fragility. There are six subtypes of Ehlers-Danlos, and in our case, the patient had EDS hyper-mobility (HT) type disorder. One important clinical feature of this syndrome is chronic pain, which is often poorly understood and treated. Our patient had a long history of articular and lumbar pain when she was diagnosed. She was prescribed analgesic treatment for acute and neuropathic pain and had multiple sessions of psychotherapy and physiotherapy to ease the pain. Unfortunately, her extensive medical history was underrated by our anesthetic team, and no further measures were taken for the operation. Despite an uneventful intra-operative phase, the patient experienced several episodes of hyperalgesia during the immediate post-operative care. Management of pain was challenging for the anesthetic team: initial opioid treatment had only a temporary effect and a paradoxical reaction after a while. Final pain relief was eventually obtained with psycho-physiologic treatment, high doses of ketamine, and patient-controlled analgesia infusion of morphine-ketamine-dehydrobenzperidol. We suspected an episode of Opioid-Induced hyperalgesia. This case report supports the hypothesis that anti-hyperalgesics such as ketamine as well as lidocaine, and dexmedetomidine should be considered intra-operatively to avoid opioid-induced hyperalgesia and may be an alternative solution to manage complex chronic pain like others in neuropathic pain syndromes.

Keywords: Ehlers-Danlos, post-operative management, hyperalgesia, opioid-induced hyperalgesia, rare disease

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Authors: Temenuzhka Spasova, Nadya Yanakieva

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Snow modulates the hydrological cycle and influences the functioning of ecosystems and is a significant resource for many populations whose water is harvested from cold regions. Snow observations are important for validating climate models. The accumulation and rapid melt of snow are two of the most dynamical seasonal environmental changes on the Earth’s surface. The actuality of this research is related to the modern tendencies of the remote sensing application in the solution of problems of different nature in the ecological monitoring of the environment. The subject of the study is the dynamic during the different seasons on Livingstone Island, South Shetland Islands in Antarctica and on Svalbard in Arctic. The objects were analyzed and mapped according to the Еuropean Space Agency data (ESA), acquired by sensors Sentinel-1 SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar), Sentinel 2 MSI and GIS. Results have been obtained for changes in snow coverage during the summer-winter transition and its dynamics in the two hemispheres. The data used is of high time-spatial resolution, which is an advantage when looking at the snow cover. The MSI images are with different spatial resolution at the Earth surface range. The changes of the environmental objects are shown with the SAR images and different processing approaches. The results clearly show that snow and snow melting can be best registered by using SAR data via hh- horizontal polarization. The effect of the researcher on aerospace data and technology enables us to obtain different digital models, structuring and analyzing results excluding the subjective factor. Because of the large extent of terrestrial snow coverage and the difficulties in obtaining ground measurements over cold regions, remote sensing and GIS represent an important tool for studying snow areas and properties from regional to global scales.

Keywords: climate changes, GIS, remote sensing, SAR images, snow coverage

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Authors: Fauziah Aziz, Mohd.fadzil Arshad, Hazrina Mansor, Sedat Kömürcü

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Masonry is an isotropic and heterogeneous material due to the presence of the different components within the assembly process. Normally the mortar plays a significant role in the compressive behavior of the traditional masonry structures. Biaxial interlocking concrete block is a masonry unit that comes out with the interlocking concept. This masonry unit can improve the quality of the construction process, reduce the cost of labor, reduce high skill workmanship, and speeding the construction time. Normally, the interlocking concrete block masonry unit in the market place was designed in a way interlocking concept only either x or y-axis, shorter in length, and low compressive strength value. However, the biaxial interlocking concrete block is a dry-stack concept being introduced in this research, offered the specialty compared to the normal interlocking concrete available in the market place due to its length and the geometry of the groove and tongue. This material can be used as a non-load bearing wall, or load-bearing wall depends on the application of the masonry. But, there is a lack of technical data that was produced before. This paper presents a finding on the compressive resistance of the biaxial interlocking concrete block masonry wall compared to the other traditional masonry walls. Two series of biaxial interlocking concrete block masonry walls, namely M1 and M2, a series of solid concrete block and cement sand brick walls M3, and M4 have tested the compressive resistance. M1 is the masonry wall of a hollow biaxial interlocking concrete block meanwhile; M2 is the grouted masonry wall, M3 is a solid concrete block masonry wall, and M4 is a cement sand brick masonry wall. All the samples were tested under static compressive load. The results examine that M2 is higher in compressive resistance compared to the M1, M3, and M4. It shows that the compressive strength of the concrete masonry units plays a significant role in the capacity of the masonry wall.

Keywords: interlocking concrete block, compressive resistance, concrete masonry unit, masonry

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Authors: Akkasit Jongjareonrak, Supansa Namchaiya

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Unripe green coffee cherry (UGCC) accounting about 5 % of total raw material weight receiving to the coffee bean production process and is, in general, sorting out and dump as waste. The UGCC is known to rich in phenolic compounds such as caffeoylquinic acids, feruloylquinic acids, chlorogenic acid (CGA), etc. CGA is one of the potent bioactive compounds using in the nutraceutical and functional food industry. Therefore, this study aimed at optimization the extraction condition of CGA from UGCC using Accelerated Solvent Extractor (ASE). The ethanol/water mixture at various ethanol concentrations (50, 60 and 70 % (v/v)) was used as an extraction solvent at elevated pressure (10.34 MPa) and temperatures (90, 120 and 150 °C). The recovery yield of UGCC crude extract, total phenolic content, CGA content and some bioactivities of UGCC extract were investigated. Using of ASE at lower temperature with higher ethanol concentration provided higher CGA content in the UGCC crude extract. The maximum CGA content was observed at the ethanol concentration of 70% ethanol and 90 °C. The further purification of UGCC crude extract gave a higher purity of CGA with a purified CGA yield of 4.28 % (w/w, of dried UGCC sample) containing 72.52 % CGA equivalent. The antioxidant activity and antimicrobial activity of purified CGA extract were determined. The purified CGA exhibited the 2,2-Diphenyl-1-picrylhydrazyl (DPPH) radical scavenging activity at 0.88 mg Trolox equivalent/mg purified CGA sample. The antibacterial activity against Escherichia coli was observed with the minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) at 3.12 mg/ml and minimum bactericidal concentration (MBC) at 12.5 mg/ml. These results suggested that using of high concentration of ethanol and low temperature under elevated pressure of ASE condition could accelerate the extraction of CGA from UGCC. The purified CGA extract could be a promising alternative source of bioactive compound using for nutraceutical and functional food industry.

Keywords: bioactive, chlorogenic acid, coffee, extraction

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Authors: Kobus-Cisowska Joanna, Flaczyk Ewa, Gramza-Michalowska Anna, Kmiecik Dominik, Przeor Monika, Marcinkowska Agata, Korczak Józef

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Cereal products, including mainly bread is a staple food known from the beginning of history throughout the world. It is now believed that there is no replacement of the basic food. Bread, due to the high content of starch is the energy source for the proper functioning of our body. It also contains proteins, fats, vitamins, especially of the B group and vitamin E, a number of minerals, and fiber. The aim of the study was to evaluate the antioxidant activity of new developed bread premixes with mulberry fruits for people with anemia, diabetes, obesity and cardiovascular disease. From the finished product-bread, aqueous and methanol extracts was prepared, which in next step were analyzed to assess the activity of the radical DPPH test, ABTS, chelating activity, the ability to reduce metals. Extracts were prepared from bread were acquired with premixes directly after production and stored for three months. The resulting trial breads effect by different mechanisms of antioxidant. They showed the ability to scavenge radicals ABTS and DPPH and chelating activity. Methanol extracts showed significantly greater antioxidant activity in comparison with aqueous extracts, and the largest effect was estimated for sample of bread for anemia, diabetes and cardiovascular disease. The greatest ability to scavenging ABTS radicals showed breads for anemia, diabetes and cardiovascular disease, while smaller for anemia and control sample. It was shown that the methanol extracts of the breads samples showed no ability to chelate iron (II). These properties are observed only in the aqueous extracts. The greatest ability attempt had anemia while the lowest control sample. Financial supported by the UE Project no POIG 01.01.02-00-061/09.

Keywords: morus alba, antioxidant activity, free radicals, polyphenols

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Authors: Nimot Opeyemi Wahab

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Poor nutritional status during adolescence is a reflection of inadequate intake of nutrients. This can also be associated with a lack of consumption of diverse food. This study assessed the nutritional status and dietary diversity score (DDS) of in-school adolescents in Ibadan North, North East, and Ibadan South West Local Government Areas (LGA) of Oyo State, Nigeria. A cross-sectional study involving 3,510 in-school adolescents from the three LGA was conducted. Nutrient intake was measured using a validated 24-hour dietary recall, and the anthropometric measurement was also taken. Dietary diversity score (DDS) was assessed using the Individual Dietary Diversity Score (WDDS) of nine food groups. Participants were between 10-19years, and the mean age was 14.76±1.68, 15.32±1.77, and 15.45±1.62 in Ibadan North, Ibadan North East, and Ibadan South West, respectively. About 48% of the participants were male (47.9%), while 52.1% were female. BMI-for-age showed that 92.1%, 5.4%, 2.1%, and 0.4% of the participants were normal, underweight, overweight, and obese, respectively. The mean energy intake (143.193±695.98) of the female respondents was more than that of the male respondents (1406.86±767.41). The macronutrients intake (protein, carbohydrates, fiber, and fats) of the female participants was also found to be more than that of the male participants, with a non-significant difference of 0.336, 0.530, 0.234, and 0.069 (at p< 0.05). Out of all the vitamin intake, only vitamin C was found to be statistically different (p=0.038) at p<0.05 between the male and female respondents. Of all the mineral intake, only phosphorus showed a higher intake (575.20±362.12) among female respondents than the male respondents. The mean DDS of all participants was 4.59±0.939. The majority of the participants, 1183 (80.9%), were within the medium DDS category, 9.9% were low, while 1.5% were in the high category: of which males were 474 (71.5%) and females were 709 (88.6%). Participants from Ibadan North were 941(88.5%), and those from South West were 242(60.5%). A non-significant difference in the mean score of participants from the two locations (p=0.467) was also found. A negative correlation exists between DDS and BMI-for age (-0.11), DDS, and energy intake (-0.46) in Ibadan North and South West LGA. The nutritional status of in-school adolescents was normal, and DDS was within the medium category. Nutrition intervention regarding the consumption of diverse food is necessary among adolescents.

Keywords: nutritional status, dietary diversity, adolescents, nutrient intake

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Authors: Ambika Prasad Gupta, Harshit Sosan Lakra

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Food security is an important issue that has been widely discussed in literature. However, there is a lack of research on the specific food security challenges faced by tribal communities. Tribal food security refers to the ability of indigenous or tribal communities to consistently access and afford an adequate and nutritious supply of food. These communities often have unique cultural, social, and economic contexts that can impact their food security. The study aims to assess the food security status of all thirty-two major tribes, including Particularly Vulnerable Tribal Groups (PVTG) people living in various blocks of Jharkhand State. The methodology of this study focuses on measuring the food security index of indigenous people by developing and redefining a new Tribal Food Security Index (TFSI) as per the indigenous community-level indicators identified by the Global Food Security Index and other indicators relevant to food security. Affordability, availability, quality and safety, and natural resources were the dimensions used to calculate the overall Tribal Food Security Index. A survey was conducted for primary data collection of tribes and PVTGs at the household level in various districts of Jharkhand with a considerable tribal population. The result shows that due to the transition from rural to urban areas, there is a considerable change in TFSI and a decrease in forest dependency of tribal communities. Socioeconomic factors like occupation and household size had a significant correlation with TFSI. Tribal households living in forests have a higher food security index than tribal households residing in urban transition areas. The study also shows that alternative methodology adopted to measure specific community-level food security creates high significant impact than using commonly used indices.

Keywords: indigenous people, tribal food security, particularly vulnerable tribal groups, Jharkhand

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Authors: Shazia Anwer Bukhari, Madiha Javeed Ghani, Muhammad Ibrahim Rajoka

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Objective: Biochemical, environmental, physical and genetic factors have a strong effect on the development of coronary disease (CAD). Plasma homocysteine (Hcy) level and DNA damage play a pivotal role in its development and progression. The aim of this study was to investigate the predictive strength of an oxidative stress, clinical biomarkers and total antioxidant status (TAS) in CAD patients to find the correlation of homocysteine, TOS and oxidative DNA damage with other clinical parameters. Methods: Sixty confirmed patients with CAD and 60 healthy individuals as control were included in this study. Different clinical and laboratory parameters were studied in blood samples obtained from patients and control subjects using commercially available biochemical kits and statistical software Results: As compared to healthy individuals, CAD patients had significantly higher concentrations of indices of oxidative stress: homocysteine (P=0.0001), total oxidative stress (TOS) (P=0.0001), serum cholesterol (P=0.04), low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL) (P=0.01), high density lipoprotein-cholesterol (HDL) (P=0.0001), and malondialdehyde (MDA) (P=0.001) than those of healthy individuals. Plasma homocysteine level and oxidative DNA damage were positively correlated with cholesterol, triglycerides, systolic blood pressure, urea, total protein and albumin (P values= 0.05). Both Hcy and oxidative DNA damage were negatively correlated with TAS and proteins. Conclusion: Coronary artery disease patients had a significant increase in homocysteine level and DNA damage due to increased oxidative stress. In conclusion, our study shows a significantly increase in lipid peroxidation, TOS, homocysteine and DNA damage in the erythrocytes of patients with CAD. A significant decrease level of HDL-C and TAS was observed only in CAD patients. Therefore these biomarkers may be useful diagnosis of patients with CAD and play an important role in the pathogenesis of CAD.

Keywords: antioxidants, coronary artery disease, DNA damage, homocysteine, oxidative stress, malondialdehyde, 8-Hydroxy-2’deoxyguanosine

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Authors: David Ugalde, Arturo Castillo, Leopoldo Breschi

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The Tuned Mass Dampers (TMDs) are an effective system for mitigating vibrations in building structures. These dampers have traditionally focused on the protection of high-rise buildings against earthquakes and wind loads. The Camara Chilena de la Construction (CChC) building, built in 2018 in Santiago, Chile, is a 21-story RC wall building equipped with a 150-ton TMD and instrumented with six permanent accelerometers, offering an opportunity to monitor the dynamic response of this damped structure. This paper presents the system identification of the CChC building using power spectral density plots of ambient vibration and two seismic events (5.5 Mw and 6.7 Mw). Linear models of the building with and without the TMD are used to compute the theoretical natural periods through modal analysis and simulate the response of the building through response history analysis. Results show that natural periods obtained from both ambient vibrations and earthquake records are quite similar to the theoretical periods given by the modal analysis of the building model. Some of the experimental periods are noticeable by simple inspection of the earthquake records. The accelerometers in the first story better captured the modes related to the building podium while the upper accelerometers clearly captured the modes related to the tower. The earthquake simulation showed smaller accelerations in the model with TMD that are similar to that measured by the accelerometers. It is concluded that the system identification through power spectral density shows consistency with the expected dynamic properties. The structural health monitoring of the CChC building confirms the advantages of seismic protection technologies such as TMDs in seismic prone areas.

Keywords: system identification, tuned mass damper, wall buildings, seismic protection

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Authors: Leandi Steenkamp

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The sectional title industry has been a part of the property landscape in South Africa for almost half a century, and plays a significant role in addressing the housing problem in the country. Stakeholders such as owners and investors in sectional title property are in most cases not directly involved in the management thereof, and place reliance on the audited annual financial statements of bodies corporate for decision-making purposes. Although the industry seems to be highly regulated, the legislation regarding accounting and auditing of sectional title is vague and ambiguous. Furthermore, there are no industry-specific auditing and accounting standards to guide accounting and auditing practitioners in performing their work and industry financial benchmarks are not readily available. In addition, financial pressure on sectional title schemes is often very high due to the fact that some owners exercise unrealistic pressure to keep monthly levies as low as possible. All these factors have an impact on the business risk as well as audit risk of bodies corporate. Very little academic research has been undertaken on the sectional title industry in South Africa from an accounting and auditing perspective. The aim of this paper is threefold: Firstly, to discuss the findings of a literature review on uncertainties, ambiguity and confusing aspects in current legislation regarding the audit of a sectional title property that may cause or increase audit and business risk. Secondly, empirical findings of risk-related aspects from the results of interviews with three groups of body corporate role-players will be discussed. The role-players were body corporate trustee chairpersons, body corporate managing agents and accounting and auditing practitioners of bodies corporate. Specific reference will be made to business risk and audit risk. Thirdly, practical recommendations will be made on possibilities of closing the audit expectation gap, and further research opportunities in this regard will be discussed.

Keywords: assurance, audit, audit risk, body corporate, corporate governance, sectional title

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Authors: Mark Andrew

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Geopolitical tensions are at a thirty-year high, and the pace of technological innovation is driving asymmetry in force capabilities between nation states and between non-state actors. Technology futures are a vital component of defence capability growth, and investments in technology futures need to be informed by accurate and reliable forecasts of the options for ‘systems of systems’ innovation, development, and deployment. This paper describes a method for forecasting technology futures developed through an analysis of four key systems’ development stages, namely: technology domain categorisation, scanning results examining novel systems’ signals and signs, potential system-of systems’ implications in warfare theatres, and political ramifications in terms of funding and development priorities. The method has been applied to several technology domains, including physical systems (e.g., nano weapons, loitering munitions, inflight charging, and hypersonic missiles), biological systems (e.g., molecular virus weaponry, genetic engineering, brain-computer interfaces, and trans-human augmentation), and information systems (e.g., sensor technologies supporting situation awareness, cyber-driven social attacks, and goal-specification challenges to proliferation and alliance testing). Although the current application of the method has been team-centred using paper-based rapid prototyping and iteration, the application of autonomous language models (such as GPT-3) is anticipated as a next-stage operating platform. The importance of forecasting accuracy and reliability is considered a vital element in guiding technology development to afford stronger contingencies as ideological changes are forecast to expand threats to ecology and earth systems, possibly eclipsing the traditional vulnerabilities of nation states. The early results from the method will be subjected to ground truthing using longitudinal investigation.

Keywords: forecasting, technology futures, uncertainty, complexity

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