Search results for: ECG baseline removal
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 2608

Search results for: ECG baseline removal

778 A Sensitive Approach on Trace Analysis of Methylparaben in Wastewater and Cosmetic Products Using Molecularly Imprinted Polymer

Authors: Soukaina Motia, Nadia El Alami El Hassani, Alassane Diouf, Benachir Bouchikhi, Nezha El Bari

Abstract:

Parabens are the antimicrobial molecules largely used in cosmetic products as a preservative agent. Among them, the methylparaben (MP) is the most frequently used ingredient in cosmetic preparations. Nevertheless, their potential dangers led to the development of sensible and reliable methods for their determination in environmental samples. Firstly, a sensitive and selective molecular imprinted polymer (MIP) based on screen-printed gold electrode (Au-SPE), assembled on a polymeric layer of carboxylated poly(vinyl-chloride) (PVC-COOH), was developed. After the template removal, the obtained material was able to rebind MP and discriminate it among other interfering species such as glucose, sucrose, and citric acid. The behavior of molecular imprinted sensor was characterized by Cyclic Voltammetry (CV), Differential Pulse Voltammetry (DPV) and Electrochemical Impedance Spectroscopy (EIS) techniques. Then, the biosensor was found to have a linear detection range from 0.1 pg.mL-1 to 1 ng.mL-1 and a low limit of detection of 0.12 fg.mL-1 and 5.18 pg.mL-1 by DPV and EIS, respectively. For applications, this biosensor was employed to determine MP content in four wastewaters in Meknes city and two cosmetic products (shower gel and shampoo). The operational reproducibility and stability of this biosensor were also studied. Secondly, another MIP biosensor based on tungsten trioxide (WO3) functionalized by gold nanoparticles (Au-NPs) assembled on a polymeric layer of PVC-COOH was developed. The main goal was to increase the sensitivity of the biosensor. The developed MIP biosensor was successfully applied for the MP determination in wastewater samples and cosmetic products.

Keywords: cosmetic products, methylparaben, molecularly imprinted polymer, wastewater

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777 In-Situ Fabrication of ZnO PES Membranes for Treatment of Pharmaceuticals

Authors: Oranso T. Mahlangi, Bhekie B. Mamba

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The occurrence of trace organic compounds (TOrCs) in water has raised health concerns for living organisms. The majority of TorCs, including pharmaceuticals and volatile organic compounds, are poorly monitored, partly due to the high cost of analysis and less strict water quality guidelines in South Africa. Therefore, the removal of TorCs is important to guarantee safe potable water. In this study, ZnO nanoparticles were fabricated in situ in polyethersulfone (PES) polymer solutions. This was followed by membrane synthesis using the phase inversion technique. Techniques such as FTIR, Raman, SEM, AFM, EDS, and contact angle measurements were used to characterize the membranes for several physicochemical properties. The membranes were then evaluated for their efficiency in treating pharmaceutical wastewater and resistance to organic (sodium alginate) and protein (bovine serum albumin) fouling. EDS micrographs revealed uniform distribution of ZnO nanoparticles within the polymer matrix, while SEM images showed uniform fingerlike structures. The addition of ZnO increased membrane roughness as well as hydrophilicity (which in turn improved water fluxes). The membranes poorly rejected monovalent and divalent salts (< 10%), making them resistant to flux decline due to concentration polarization effects. However, the membranes effectively removed carbamazepine, caffeine, sulfamethoxazole, ibuprofen, and naproxen by over 50%. ZnO PES membranes were resistant to organic and protein fouling compared to the neat membrane. ZnO PES ultrafiltration membranes may provide a solution in the reclamation of wastewater.

Keywords: trace organic compounds, pharmaceuticals, membrane fouling, wastewater reclamation

Procedia PDF Downloads 146
776 Short-Term Effects of Environmentally Relevant Concentrations of Organic UV Filters on Signal Crayfish Pacifastacus Leniusculus

Authors: Viktoriia Malinovska, Iryna Kuklina, Katerina Grabicova, Milos Buric, Pavel Kozak

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Personal care products, including organic UV filters, are considered emerging contaminants and their toxic effects have been a concern for the last decades. Sunscreen compounds continually enter the surface waters via sewage water treatment due to incomplete removal and during human recreational and laundry activities. Despite the environmental occurrence of organic UV filters in the freshwater environment, little is known about their impacts on aquatic biota. In this study, environmentally relevant concentrations of 5-Benzoyl-4-hydroxy-2-methoxybenzenesulfonic acid (BP-4, 2.5 µg/L) and 2-Phenylbenzimidazole-5-sulfonic acid (PBSA, 3 µg/L) were used to evaluate the cardiac and locomotor responses of signal crayfish Pacifastacus leniusculus during a short time period. The effects of these compounds were evident in experimental animals. Specimens exposed to both tested compounds exhibited significantly bigger changes in distance moved and time movement than controls. Significant differences in changes in mean heart rate were detected in both PBSA and BP-4 experimental groups compared to control groups. Such behavioral and physiological alterations demonstrate the ecological effects of selected sunscreen compounds during a short time period. Since the evidence of the impacts of sunscreen compounds is scarce, the knowledge of how organic UV filters influence aquatic organisms is of key importance for future research.

Keywords: aquatic pollutants, behavior, freshwaters, heart rate, invertebrate

Procedia PDF Downloads 109
775 The Effect of "Trait" Variance of Personality on Depression: Application of the Trait-State-Occasion Modeling

Authors: Pei-Chen Wu

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Both preexisting cross-sectional and longitudinal studies of personality-depression relationship have suffered from one main limitation: they ignored the stability of the construct of interest (e.g., personality and depression) can be expected to influence the estimate of the association between personality and depression. To address this limitation, the Trait-State-Occasion (TSO) modeling was adopted to analyze the sources of variance of the focused constructs. A TSO modeling was operated by partitioning a state variance into time-invariant (trait) and time-variant (occasion) components. Within a TSO framework, it is possible to predict change on the part of construct that really changes (i.e., time-variant variance), when controlling the trait variances. 750 high school students were followed for 4 waves over six-month intervals. The baseline data (T1) were collected from the senior high schools (aged 14 to 15 years). Participants were given Beck Depression Inventory and Big Five Inventory at each assessment. TSO modeling revealed that 70~78% of the variance in personality (five constructs) was stable over follow-up period; however, 57~61% of the variance in depression was stable. For personality construct, there were 7.6% to 8.4% of the total variance from the autoregressive occasion factors; for depression construct there were 15.2% to 18.1% of the total variance from the autoregressive occasion factors. Additionally, results showed that when controlling initial symptom severity, the time-invariant components of all five dimensions of personality were predictive of change in depression (Extraversion: B= .32, Openness: B = -.21, Agreeableness: B = -.27, Conscientious: B = -.36, Neuroticism: B = .39). Because five dimensions of personality shared some variance, the models in which all five dimensions of personality were simultaneous to predict change in depression were investigated. The time-invariant components of five dimensions were still significant predictors for change in depression (Extraversion: B = .30, Openness: B = -.24, Agreeableness: B = -.28, Conscientious: B = -.35, Neuroticism: B = .42). In sum, the majority of the variability of personality was stable over 2 years. Individuals with the greater tendency of Extraversion and Neuroticism have higher degrees of depression; individuals with the greater tendency of Openness, Agreeableness and Conscientious have lower degrees of depression.

Keywords: assessment, depression, personality, trait-state-occasion model

Procedia PDF Downloads 179
774 An Automated Approach to the Nozzle Configuration of Polycrystalline Diamond Compact Drill Bits for Effective Cuttings Removal

Authors: R. Suresh, Pavan Kumar Nimmagadda, Ming Zo Tan, Shane Hart, Sharp Ugwuocha

Abstract:

Polycrystalline diamond compact (PDC) drill bits are extensively used in the oil and gas industry as well as the mining industry. Industry engineers continually improve upon PDC drill bit designs and hydraulic conditions. Optimized injection nozzles play a key role in improving the drilling performance and efficiency of these ever changing PDC drill bits. In the first part of this study, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modelling is performed to investigate the hydrodynamic characteristics of drilling fluid flow around the PDC drill bit. An Open-source CFD software – OpenFOAM simulates the flow around the drill bit, based on the field input data. A specifically developed console application integrates the entire CFD process including, domain extraction, meshing, and solving governing equations and post-processing. The results from the OpenFOAM solver are then compared with that of the ANSYS Fluent software. The data from both software programs agree. The second part of the paper describes the parametric study of the PDC drill bit nozzle to determine the effect of parameters such as number of nozzles, nozzle velocity, nozzle radial position and orientations on the flow field characteristics and bit washing patterns. After analyzing a series of nozzle configurations, the best configuration is identified and recommendations are made for modifying the PDC bit design.

Keywords: ANSYS Fluent, computational fluid dynamics, nozzle configuration, OpenFOAM, PDC dill bit

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773 Regional Anesthesia: A Vantage Point for Management of Normal Pressure Hydrocephalus

Authors: Kunal K. S., Shwetashri K. R., Keerthan G., Ajinkya R.

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Background: Normal pressure hydrocephalus is a condition caused by abnormal accumulation of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) within the brain resulting in enlarged cerebral ventricles due to a disruption of CSF formation, absorption, or flow. Over the course of time, ventriculoperitoneal shunt under general anesthesia has become a standard of care. Yet only a finite number of centers have started the inclusion of regional anesthesia techniques for the such patient cohort. Stem Case: We report a case of a 75-year-old male with underlying aortic sclerosis and cardiomyopathy who presented with complaints of confusion, forgetfulness, and difficulty in walking. Neuro-imaging studies revealed disproportionally enlarged subarachnoid space hydrocephalus (DESH). The baseline blood pressure was 116/67 mmHg with a heart rate of 106 beats/min and SpO2 of 96% on room air. The patient underwent smooth induction followed by sonographically guided superficial cervical plexus block and transverse abdominis plane block. Intraoperative pain indices were monitored with Analgesia nociceptive index monitor (ANI, MdolorisTM) and surgical plethysmographic index (SPI, GE Healthcare, Helsinki, FinlandTM). These remained stable during the application of the block and the entire surgical duration. No significant hemodynamic response was observed during the tunneling of the skin by the surgeon. The patient underwent a smooth recovery and emergence. Conclusion: Our decision to incorporate peripheral nerve blockade in conjunction with general anesthesia resulted in opioid-sparing anesthesia and decreased post-operative analgesic requirement by the patient. This blockade was successful in suppressing intraoperative stress responses. Our patient recovered adequately and underwent an uncomplicated post-operative stay.

Keywords: desh, NPH, VP shunt, cervical plexus block, transversus abdominis plane block

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772 Immobilization of Lead in Contaminated Soil Using Enzyme Induced Calcite Precipitation (EİCP) Along with Coconut Fiber Biochar (CFB)

Authors: Kaniz Roksana, Aluthgun Hewage Shaini, Cheng Zhu

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Lead is environmentally hazardous because it may persist for a long time in soil, water, and air, and it can travel large distances when carried by wind or water. Lead is toxic to many different species of organisms and has the potential to disrupt ecosystem stability. Moreover, lead can contaminate crops and livestock, which can then have an adverse effect on human health. This study was conducted to use the enzyme-induced calcium carbonate precipitation (EICP) technique from soybean crude extract urease along coconut fiber derived biochar’s (CFB) to bioremediate lead. To study the desorption rates of heavy metals from the soil, lead (Pb) was added to the soil at load ratios of 50 and 100 mg/kg. There were five separate treatment soil columns created: control sample, only CFB, only EICP, EICP with 2% (w/w) CFB, and EICP with 4% (w/w) CFB. Laboratory scale experiment demonstrates significant lead removal from soil. The amount of CaCO₃ precipitated in the soil was measured using a gravimetric acid digestion test, which related heavy metal desorption to the amount of precipitated calcium carbonate. These findings were validated using a scanning electron microscope (SEM), which revealed calcium carbonate and lead coprecipitation. As a result, the study reveals that the EICP technique, in conjunction with coconut fiber biochar, could be an efficient alternative in the remediation of heavy metal ion-contaminated soils.

Keywords: enzyme induced calcium carbonate precipitation (EICP), coconut fiber derived biochar’s (CFB), bioremediation, heavy metal

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771 Chemical and Biological Examination of De-Oiled Indian Propolis

Authors: Harshada Vaidya-Kannur, Dattatraya Naik

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Propolis, one of the beehive products also referred as bee-glue is sticky dark coloured complex mixture of compounds. The volatile oil can be isolated from the propolis by hydrodistillation. The mark that is left behind after the removal of volatile oil is referred as the de-oiled propolis. Antioxidant as well as anti-inflammatory properties of total ethanolic extract of de-oiled propolis (TEEDP) was investigated. Another lot of deoiled propolis was successively exacted with hexane, ethyl acetate and ethanol. Activities of these fractions were also determined. Antioxidant activity was determined by studying ABTS, DPPH and NO radical scavenging. Determination of anti-inflammatory activity was carried out by topical TPA induced mouse ear oedema model. It is noteworthy that ethyl acetate fraction of deoiled propolis (EAFDP) exhibited 49.45 % TEAC activity at the concentration 0.2 mg/ml which is equivalent to the activity of trolox at the concentration 0.2 mg/ml. Its DPPH scavenging activity (72.56%) was closely comparable to that of trolox (75%). However its NO scavenging activity was comparatively low. From IC50 values it could be concluded that the efficiency of scavenging ABTS radicals by the de-oiled propolis was more pronounced as compared to scavenging of other radicals. Studies by TPA induced mouse ear inflammation model indicated that the de-oiled propolis of Indian origin had significant topical anti-inflammatory activity. The EAFDP was found to be the most active fraction for this activity also. The purification of EAFP yielded six pure crystalline compounds. These compounds were identified by their physical data and spectral data.

Keywords: anti-inflammatory activity, anti-oxidant activity, column chromatography, de-oiled propolis

Procedia PDF Downloads 292
770 Contrasting Infrastructure Sharing and Resource Substitution Synergies Business Models

Authors: Robin Molinier

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Industrial symbiosis (I.S) rely on two modes of cooperation that are infrastructure sharing and resource substitution to obtain economic and environmental benefits. The former consists in the intensification of use of an asset while the latter is based on the use of waste, fatal energy (and utilities) as alternatives to standard inputs. Both modes, in fact, rely on the shift from a business-as-usual functioning towards an alternative production system structure so that in a business point of view the distinction is not clear. In order to investigate the way those cooperation modes can be distinguished, we consider the stakeholders' interplay in the business model structure regarding their resources and requirements. For infrastructure sharing (following economic engineering literature) the cost function of capacity induces economies of scale so that demand pooling reduces global expanses. Grassroot investment sizing decision and the ex-post pricing strongly depends on the design optimization phase for capacity sizing whereas ex-post operational cost sharing minimizing budgets are less dependent upon production rates. Value is then mainly design driven. For resource substitution, synergies value stems from availability and is at risk regarding both supplier and user load profiles and market prices of the standard input. Baseline input purchasing cost reduction is thus more driven by the operational phase of the symbiosis and must be analyzed within the whole sourcing policy (including diversification strategies and expensive back-up replacement). Moreover, while resource substitution involves a chain of intermediate processors to match quality requirements, the infrastructure model relies on a single operator whose competencies allow to produce non-rival goods. Transaction costs appear higher in resource substitution synergies due to the high level of customization which induces asset specificity, and non-homogeneity following transaction costs economics arguments.

Keywords: business model, capacity, sourcing, synergies

Procedia PDF Downloads 177
769 High Catalytic Activity and Stability of Ginger Peroxidase Immobilized on Amino Functionalized Silica Coated Titanium Dioxide Nanocomposite: A Promising Tool for Bioremediation

Authors: Misha Ali, Qayyum Husain, Nida Alam, Masood Ahmad

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Improving the activity and stability of the enzyme is an important aspect in bioremediation processes. Immobilization of enzyme is an efficient approach to amend the properties of biocatalyst required during wastewater treatment. The present study was done to immobilize partially purified ginger peroxidase on amino functionalized silica coated titanium dioxide nanocomposite. Interestingly there was an enhancement in enzyme activity after immobilization on nanosupport which was evident from effectiveness factor (η) value of 1.76. Immobilized enzyme was characterized by transmission electron microscopy, scanning electron microscopy and Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy. Immobilized peroxidase exhibited higher activity in a broad range of pH and temperature as compared to free enzyme. Also, the thermostability of peroxidase was strikingly improved upon immobilization. After six repeated uses, the immobilized peroxidase retained around 62% of its dye decolorization activity. There was a 4 fold increase in Vmax of immobilized peroxidase as compared to free enzyme. Circular dichroism spectroscopy demonstrated conformational changes in the secondary structure of enzyme, a possible reason for the enhanced enzyme activity after immobilization. Immobilized peroxidase was highly efficient in the removal of acid yellow 42 dye in a stirred batch process. Our study shows that this bio-remediating system has remarkable potential for treatment of aromatic pollutants present in wastewater.

Keywords: acid yellow 42, decolorization, ginger peroxidase, immobilization

Procedia PDF Downloads 252
768 Influence of Surface Preparation Effects on the Electrochemical Behavior of 2098-T351 Al–Cu–Li Alloy

Authors: Rejane Maria P. da Silva, Mariana X. Milagre, João Victor de S. Araujo, Leandro A. de Oliveira, Renato A. Antunes, Isolda Costa

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The Al-Cu-Li alloys are advanced materials for aerospace application because of their interesting mechanical properties and low density when compared with conventional Al-alloys. However, Al-Cu-Li alloys are susceptible to localized corrosion. The near-surface deformed layer (NSDL) induced by the rolling process during the production of the alloy and its removal by polishing can influence on the corrosion susceptibility of these alloys. In this work, the influence of surface preparation effects on the electrochemical activity of AA2098-T351 (Al–Cu–Li alloy) was investigated using a correlation between surface chemistry, microstructure, and electrochemical activity. Two conditions were investigated, polished and as-received surfaces of the alloy. The morphology of the two types of surfaces was investigated using confocal laser scanning microscopy (CLSM) and optical microscopy. The surface chemistry was analyzed by X-ray Photoelectron Spectroscopy (XPS) and energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDS). Global electrochemical techniques (potentiodynamic polarization and EIS technique) and a local electrochemical technique (Localized Electrochemical Impedance Spectroscopy-LEIS) were used to examine the electrochemical activity of the surfaces. The results obtained in this study showed that in the as-received surface, the near-surface deformed layer (NSDL), which is composed of Mg-rich bands, influenced the electrochemical behavior of the alloy. The results showed higher electrochemical activity to the polished surface condition compared to the as-received one.

Keywords: Al-Cu-Li alloys, surface preparation effects, electrochemical techniques, localized corrosion

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767 Degradation of 2,4-D through Photo-Fenton

Authors: Jonathan K. Baeza, Bryan Monzón, Yair Cruz, José J. Castro

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While agriculture is essential for feeding the world, it's also heavily reliant on herbicides. The overuse of these chemicals poses a significant global problem. In this context, 2,4-dichlorophenoxyacetic acid (2,4-D) is one of the most commonly used herbicides, especially in grain crops. This study investigates the removal of 2,4-D from water using an advanced oxidation process, specifically the homogeneous photo-fenton process. We used iron salts and hydrogen peroxide as primary reactants under controlled conditions: 24 ultraviolet LEDs, a commercial herbicide called 'hierbamina,' an initial 2,4-D concentration of 100 mg/L, a pH of 2.5, and a reaction volume of 350 ml. Through exploratory experiments and analytical techniques like UV-vis spectrophotometry and HPLC chromatography, we found that the concentrations of iron and hydrogen peroxide are critical for optimizing the process. Surprisingly, temperature didn't significantly affect the degradation rate. However, ultraviolet light was essential; without it (the classic Fenton process), the degradation efficiency was much lower. We also conducted plant toxicity tests, which showed a significant reduction in the toxicity of the treated wastewater. Additionally, using a high-resolution FT-ICR-MS mass spectrometer, we searched for 2,4-D and its toxic byproduct, 2,4-dichlorophenol (2,4-DCP), but found neither at the end of the reaction. These results indicate a degradation efficiency of over 99% in all exploratory tests with a 90-minute reaction time. However, we need to complement these results with a total organic carbon (TOC) analysis to measure the extent of contaminant mineralization. These analyses will be conducted in future research once we've optimized the reaction conditions.

Keywords: agriculture, herbicide, photo-fenton, water

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766 Estimating the Impact of Appliance Energy Efficiency Improvement on Residential Energy Demand in Tema City, Ghana

Authors: Marriette Sakah, Samuel Gyamfi, Morkporkpor Delight Sedzro, Christoph Kuhn

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Ghana is experiencing rapid economic development and its cities command an increasingly dominant role as centers of both production and consumption. Cities run on energy and are extremely vulnerable to energy scarcity, energy price escalations and health impacts of very poor air quality. The overriding concern in Ghana and other West African states is bridging the gap between energy demand and supply. Energy efficiency presents a cost-effective solution for supply challenges by enabling more coverage with current power supply levels and reducing the need for investment in additional generation capacity and grid infrastructure. In Ghana, major issues for energy policy formulation in residential applications include lack of disaggregated electrical energy consumption data and lack of thorough understanding with regards to socio-economic influences on energy efficiency investment. This study uses a bottom up approach to estimate baseline electricity end-use as well as the energy consumption of best available technologies to enable estimation of energy-efficiency resource in terms of relative reduction in total energy use for Tema city, Ghana. A ground survey was conducted to assess the probable consumer behavior in response to energy efficiency initiatives to enable estimation of the amount of savings that would occur in response to specific policy interventions with regards to funding and incentives provision targeted at households. Results show that 16% - 54% reduction in annual electricity consumption is reasonably achievable depending on the level of incentives provision. The saved energy could supply 10000 - 34000 additional households if the added households use only best available technology. Political support and consumer awareness are necessary to translate energy efficiency resources into real energy savings.

Keywords: achievable energy savings, energy efficiency, Ghana, household appliances

Procedia PDF Downloads 219
765 The Carers-ID Online Intervention For Family Carers Of People With Intellectual Disabilities: A Feasibility Trial Protocol

Authors: Mark Linden, Rachel Leonard, Trisha Forbes, Michael Brown, Lynne Marsh, Stuart Todd, Nathan Hughes, Maria Truesdale

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Background: Current interventions which aim to improve the mental health of family carers are often face to face, which can create barriers to full participation. Online interventions can offer flexibility in delivery compared to face to face approaches. The primary objective of this study is to determine the feasibility of delivering the Carers-ID online intervention, while the secondary outcome is to improve the mental health of family carers of people with intellectual disabilities. Methods: Family carers (n = 120) will be randomised to receive the intervention (n=60) or assigned to a wait-list control (n=60) group. The intervention (www.Carers-ID.com) consists of fourteen modules which cover topics including promoting resilience, providing peer support, reducing anxiety, managing stress, accessing local supports, managing family conflict and information for siblings who are carers. Primary outcomes for this study include acceptability and feasibility of the outcome measures, recruitment, participation and retention rates and effect sizes. Secondary outcomes will be completed at three time points (baseline, following intervention completion and three months after completion). Secondary outcomes include, depression, anxiety, stress, well-being , resilience and social connectedness. Participants (n=12) who have taken part in the intervention arm of the research will be invited to participate in semi-structured interviews as part of the process evaluation. Discussion: To determine whether a full-scale randomised controlled effectiveness trial is warranted, feasibility testing of the intervention and trial procedures is a necessary first step. The Carers-ID intervention provides an accessible resource for family carers to support their mental health and well-being.

Keywords: intellectual disability, family carer, feasibility trial, online intervention

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764 Analyzing Impacts of Road Network on Vegetation Using Geographic Information System and Remote Sensing Techniques

Authors: Elizabeth Malebogo Mosepele

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Road transport has become increasingly common in the world; people rely on road networks for transportation purpose on a daily basis. However, environmental impact of roads on surrounding landscapes extends their potential effects even further. This study investigates the impact of road network on natural vegetation. The study will provide baseline knowledge regarding roadside vegetation and would be helpful in future for conservation of biodiversity along the road verges and improvements of road verges. The general hypothesis of this study is that the amount and condition of road side vegetation could be explained by road network conditions. Remote sensing techniques were used to analyze vegetation conditions. Landsat 8 OLI image was used to assess vegetation cover condition. NDVI image was generated and used as a base from which land cover classes were extracted, comprising four categories viz. healthy vegetation, degraded vegetation, bare surface, and water. The classification of the image was achieved using the supervised classification technique. Road networks were digitized from Google Earth. For observed data, transect based quadrats of 50*50 m were conducted next to road segments for vegetation assessment. Vegetation condition was related to road network, with the multinomial logistic regression confirming a significant relationship between vegetation condition and road network. The null hypothesis formulated was that 'there is no variation in vegetation condition as we move away from the road.' Analysis of vegetation condition revealed degraded vegetation within close proximity of a road segment and healthy vegetation as the distance increase away from the road. The Chi Squared value was compared with critical value of 3.84, at the significance level of 0.05 to determine the significance of relationship. Given that the Chi squared value was 395, 5004, the null hypothesis was therefore rejected; there is significant variation in vegetation the distance increases away from the road. The conclusion is that the road network plays an important role in the condition of vegetation.

Keywords: Chi squared, geographic information system, multinomial logistic regression, remote sensing, road side vegetation

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763 Investigation of Projected Organic Waste Impact on a Tropical Wetland in Singapore

Authors: Swee Yang Low, Dong Eon Kim, Canh Tien Trinh Nguyen, Yixiong Cai, Shie-Yui Liong

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Nee Soon swamp forest is one of the last vestiges of tropical wetland in Singapore. Understanding the hydrological regime of the swamp forest and implications for water quality is critical to guide stakeholders in implementing effective measures to preserve the wetland against anthropogenic impacts. In particular, although current field measurement data do not indicate a concern with organic pollution, reviewing the ways in which the wetland responds to elevated organic waste influx (and the corresponding impact on dissolved oxygen, DO) can help identify potential hotspots, and the impact on the outflow from the catchment which drains into downstream controlled watercourses. An integrated water quality model is therefore developed in this study to investigate spatial and temporal concentrations of DO levels and organic pollution (as quantified by biochemical oxygen demand, BOD) within the catchment’s river network under hypothetical, projected scenarios of spiked upstream inflow. The model was developed using MIKE HYDRO for modelling the study domain, as well as the MIKE ECO Lab numerical laboratory for characterising water quality processes. Model parameters are calibrated against time series of observed discharges at three measurement stations along the river network. Over a simulation period of April 2014 to December 2015, the calibrated model predicted that a continuous spiked inflow of 400 mg/l BOD will elevate downstream concentrations at the catchment outlet to an average of 12 mg/l, from an assumed nominal baseline BOD of 1 mg/l. Levels of DO were decreased from an initial 5 mg/l to 0.4 mg/l. Though a scenario of spiked organic influx at the swamp forest’s undeveloped upstream sub-catchments is currently unlikely to occur, the outcomes nevertheless will be beneficial for future planning studies in understanding how the water quality of the catchment will be impacted should urban redevelopment works be considered around the swamp forest.

Keywords: hydrology, modeling, water quality, wetland

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762 Back to Basics: Redefining Quality Measurement for Hybrid Software Development Organizations

Authors: Satya Pradhan, Venky Nanniyur

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As the software industry transitions from a license-based model to a subscription-based Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) model, many software development groups are using a hybrid development model that incorporates Agile and Waterfall methodologies in different parts of the organization. The traditional metrics used for measuring software quality in Waterfall or Agile paradigms do not apply to this new hybrid methodology. In addition, to respond to higher quality demands from customers and to gain a competitive advantage in the market, many companies are starting to prioritize quality as a strategic differentiator. As a result, quality metrics are included in the decision-making activities all the way up to the executive level, including board of director reviews. This paper presents key challenges associated with measuring software quality in organizations using the hybrid development model. We introduce a framework called Prevention-Inspection-Evaluation-Removal (PIER) to provide a comprehensive metric definition for hybrid organizations. The framework includes quality measurements, quality enforcement, and quality decision points at different organizational levels and project milestones. The metrics framework defined in this paper is being used for all Cisco systems products used in customer premises. We present several field metrics for one product portfolio (enterprise networking) to show the effectiveness of the proposed measurement system. As the results show, this metrics framework has significantly improved in-process defect management as well as field quality.

Keywords: quality management system, quality metrics framework, quality metrics, agile, waterfall, hybrid development system

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761 Comparison and Effectiveness of Cranial Electrical Stimulation Treatment, Brain Training and Their Combination on Language and Verbal Fluency of Patients with Mild Cognitive Impairment: A Single Subject Design

Authors: Firoozeh Ghazanfari, Kourosh Amraei, Parisa Poorabadi

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Mild cognitive impairment is one of the neurocognitive disorders that go beyond age-related decline in cognitive functions, but in fact, it is not so severe which affects daily activities. This study aimed to investigate and compare the effectiveness of treatment with cranial electrical stimulation, brain training and their double combination on the language and verbal fluency of the elderly with mild cognitive impairment. This is a single-subject method with comparative intervention designs. Four patients with a definitive diagnosis of mild cognitive impairment by a psychiatrist were selected via purposive and convenience sampling method. Addenbrooke's Cognitive Examination Scale (2017) was used to assess language and verbal fluency. Two groups were formed with different order of cranial electrical stimulation treatment, brain training by pencil and paper method and their double combination, and two patients were randomly replaced in each group. The arrangement of the first group included cranial electrical stimulation, brain training, double combination and the second group included double combination, cranial electrical stimulation and brain training, respectively. Treatment plan included: A1, B, A2, C, A3, D, A4, where electrical stimulation treatment was given in ten 30-minutes sessions (5 mA and frequency of 0.5-500 Hz) and brain training in ten 30-minutes sessions. Each baseline lasted four weeks. Patients in first group who first received cranial electrical stimulation treatment showed a higher percentage of improvement in the language and verbal fluency subscale of Addenbrooke's Cognitive Examination in comparison to patients of the second group. Based on the results, it seems that cranial electrical stimulation with its effect on neurotransmitters and brain blood flow, especially in the brain stem, may prepare the brain at the neurochemical and molecular level for a better effectiveness of brain training at the behavioral level, and the selective treatment of electrical stimulation solitude in the first place may be more effective than combining it with paper-pencil brain training.

Keywords: cranial electrical stimulation, treatment, brain training, verbal fluency, cognitive impairment

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760 Nitrogen/Platinum Co-Doped TiO₂ for Enhanced Visible Light Photocatalytic Degradation of Brilliant Black

Authors: Sarre Nzaba, Bulelwa Ntsendwana, Bekkie Mamba, Alex Kuvarega

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Elimination of toxic organic compounds from wastewater is currently one of the most important subjects in water pollution control. The discharge of azo dyes such as Brilliant black (BB) into the water bodies has carcinogenic and mutagenic effects on humankind and the ecosystem. Conventional water treatment techniques fail to degrade these dyes completely thereby posing more problems. Advanced oxidation processes (AOPs) are promising technologies in solving the problem. Anatase type nitrogen-platinum (N,Pt) co-doped TiO₂ photocatalyts were prepared by a modified sol-gel method using amine terminated polyamidoamine generation 1 (PG1) as a template and source of nitrogen. SEM/ EDX, TEM, XRD, XPS, TGA, FTIR, RS, PL and UV-Vis were used to characterize the prepared nanomaterials. The synthesized photocatalysts exhibited lower band gap energies as compared to the commercial TiO₂ revealing a shift in band gap towards the visible light absorption region. Photocatalytic activity of N,Pt co-doped TiO₂ was measured by the reaction of photocatalytic degradation of BB dye. Enhanced photodegradation efficiency of BB was achieved after 180 min reaction time with initial concentration of 50 ppm BB solution. This was attributed to the rod-like shape of the materials, larger surface area, and enhanced absorption of visible light induced by N,Pt co-doping. The co-doped N,Pt also exhibited pseudo-first order kinetic behaviour with half-life and rate constant of 0.37 min 0.1984 min⁻¹ and respectively. N doped TiO₂ and N,Pt co-doped TiO₂ exhibited enhanced photocatalytic performances for the removal of BB from water.

Keywords: N, Pt co-doped TiO₂, dendrimer, photodegradation, visible-light

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759 Military Orchestrated Leadership Change in Zimbabwe and the Quest for Political Transition

Authors: Patrick Dzimiri

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This chapter discusses the military-orchestrated leadership change in Zimbabwe that transpired in November 2017. Fundamentally, the chapter provides a critical examination of military interference in the country's politics and its implications for a political transition in the post-Mugabe dispensation. This chapter offers insight into Zimbabwe's political crises propelled by the lack of a succession plan. It emerged that the succession battle within ZANU-PF got complicated by the militarisation of factionalism. The chapter builds from an extensive review of primary and secondary data sources on political developments before and post-Mugabe era. Vilfredo Pareto's (1848-18923) theory on elite circulation is deployed herein to explain the absence of a succession mechanism within ZANU-PF and the militarisation of socio-politics life Zimbabwe. The chapter argues that what transpired in Zimbabwe’s power wrangle within the ZANU-PF political elites was triggered by a lack of a clear succession policy. Building from insights offered by Pareto's theory of elite circulation, it is averred that the removal of Mugabe by the military did not herald any form of political transition but rather a mere power play of one elite replacing another. In addition, it is argued that the lack of political reform by the Mnangagwa government affirms the position that political elites seek power for personal self-actualisation and not the public good. The chapter concludes that Mnangagwa's rise to power is nothing but a new elite displacing the old elite structure and does not herald a positive transition and transformation in the politics of Zimbabwe.

Keywords: military, politics, zimbabwe, governance, political transition

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758 Portable Water Treatment for Flood Resilience

Authors: Alireza Abbassi Monjezi, Mohammad Hasan Shaheed

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Flood, caused by excessive rainfall, monsoon, cyclone and tsunami is a common disaster in many countries of the world especially sea connected low-lying countries. A stand-alone self-powered water filtration module for decontamination of floodwater has been designed and modeled. A combination forward osmosis – low pressure reverse osmosis (FO-LPRO) system powered by solar photovoltaic-thermal (PVT) energy is investigated which could overcome the main barriers to water supply for remote areas and ensure off-grid filtration. The proposed system is designed to be small scale and portable to provide on-site potable water to communities that are no longer themselves mobile nor can be reached quickly by the aid agencies. FO is an osmotically driven process that uses osmotic pressure gradients to drive water across a controlled pore membrane from a feed solution (low osmotic pressure) to a draw solution (high osmotic pressure). This drops the demand for high hydraulic pressures and therefore the energy demand. There is also a tendency for lower fouling, easier fouling layer removal and higher water recovery. In addition, the efficiency of the PVT unit will be maximized through freshwater cooling which is integrated into the system. A filtration module with the capacity of 5 m3/day is modeled to treat floodwater and provide drinking water. The module can be used as a tool for disaster relief, particularly in the aftermath of flood and tsunami events.

Keywords: flood resilience, membrane desalination, portable water treatment, solar energy

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757 Thermo-Physical Properties and Solubility of CO2 in Piperazine Activated Aqueous Solutions of β-Alanine

Authors: Ghulam Murshid

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Carbon dioxide is one of the major greenhouse gas (GHG) contributors. It is an obligation of the industry to reduce the amount of carbon dioxide emission to the acceptable limits. Tremendous research and studies are reported in the past and still the quest to find the suitable and economical solution of this problem needed to be explored in order to develop the most plausible absorber for carbon dioxide removal. Amino acids are reported by the researchers as a potential solvent for absorption of carbon dioxide to replace alkanolamines due to its ability to resist oxidative degradation, low volatility due to its ionic structure and higher surface tension. In addition, the introduction of promoter-like piperazine to amino acid helps to further enhance the solubility. In this work, the effect of piperazine on thermophysical properties and solubility of β-Alanine aqueous solutions were studied for various concentrations. The measured physicochemical properties data was correlated as a function of temperature using least-squares method and the correlation parameters are reported together with it respective standard deviations. The effect of activator piperazine on the CO2 loading performance of selected amino acid under high-pressure conditions (1bar to 10bar) at temperature range of (30 to 60)oC was also studied. Solubility of CO2 decreases with increasing temperature and increases with increasing pressure. Quadratic representation of solubility using Response Surface Methodology (RSM) shows that the most important parameter to optimize solubility is system pressure. The addition of promoter increases the solubility effect of the solvent.

Keywords: amino acids, co2, global warming, solubility

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756 Subdued Electrodermal Response to Empathic Induction Task in Intimate Partner Violence (IPV) Perpetrators

Authors: Javier Comes Fayos, Isabel Rodríguez Moreno, Sara Bressanutti, Marisol Lila, Angel Romero Martínez, Luis Moya Albiol

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Empathy is a cognitive-affective capacity whose deterioration is associated with aggressive behaviour. Deficient affective processing is one of the predominant risk factors in men convicted of intimate partner violence (IPV perpetrators), since it makes their capacity to empathize very difficult. The objective of this study is to compare the response of electrodermal activity (EDA), as an indicator of emotionality, to an empathic induction task, between IPV perpetrators and men without a history of violence. The sample was composed of 51 men who attended the CONTEXTO program, with penalties for gender violence under two years, and 47 men with no history of violence. Empathic induction was achieved through the visualization of 4 negative emotional-eliciting videos taken from an emotional induction battery of videos validated for the Spanish population. The participants were asked to actively empathize with the video characters (previously pointed out). The psychophysiological recording of the EDA was accomplished by the "Vrije Universiteit Ambulatory Monitoring System (VU-AMS)." An analysis of repeated measurements was carried out with 10 intra-subject measurements (time) and "group" (IPV perpetrators and non-violent perpetrators) as the inter-subject factor. First, there were no significant differences between groups in the baseline AED levels. Yet, a significant interaction between the “time” and “group” was found with IPV perpetrators exhibiting lower EDA response than controls after the empathic induction task. These findings provide evidence of a subdued EDA response after an empathic induction task in IPV perpetrators with respect to men without a history of violence. Therefore, the lower psychophysiological activation would be indicative of difficulties in the emotional processing and response, functions that are necessary for the empathic function. Consequently, the importance of addressing possible empathic difficulties in IPV perpetrator psycho-educational programs is reinforced, putting special emphasis on the affective dimension that could hinder the empathic function.

Keywords: electrodermal activity, emotional induction, empathy, intimate partner violence

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755 The Effects of High-frequency rTMS Targeting the Mirror Neurons on Improving Social Awareness in ASD, the Preliminary Analysis of a Pilot Study

Authors: Mitra Assadi, Md. Faan

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Background: Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) in a common neurodevelopmental disorder with limited pharmacological interventions. Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation (rTMS) has produced promising results in ASD, although there is no consensus regarding optimal targets or stimulation paradigms. A prevailing theory in ASD attributes the core deficits to dysfunction of the mirror neurons located in the inferior parietal lobule (IPL) and inferior frontal gyrus (IFG). Methods: Thus far, 11 subjects with ASD, 10 boys and 1 girl with the mean age of 13.36 years have completed the study by receiving 10 session of high frequency rTMS to the IPL. The subjects were randomized to receive stimulation on the left or right IPL and sham stimulation to the opposite side. The outcome measures included the Social Responsiveness Scale – Second Edition (SRS-2) and Delis-Kaplan Executive Function System (D-KEFS) Verbal Fluency task. Results: None of the 11 subjects experienced any adverse effects. The rTMS did not produce any improvement in verbal fluency, nor there was any statistically significant difference between the right versus left sided stimulation. Analysis of social awareness on SRS-2 (SRS-AWR) indicated a close to significant effect of the treatment with a small to medium effect size. After removing a single subject with Level 3 ASD, we demonstrated a close to significant improvement on SRS-AWR with a large effect size. The analysis of the data 3-month post TMS demonstrated return of the SRS-AWR values to baseline. Conclusion: This preliminary analysis of the 11 subjects who have completed our study thus far shows a favorable response to high frequency rTMS stimulation of the mirror neurons/IPL on social awareness. While the decay of the response noted during the 3-month follow-up may be considered a limitation of rTMS, the presence of the improvement, especially the effect size despite the small sample size, is indicative of the efficacy of this technique.

Keywords: rTMS, autism, scoial cognition, mirror neurons

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754 Effects of Arts-Mediated Mother-Child Dyads Mindfulness-Based Intervention for Korean Children with ADHD: On Behaviors in Children and Subjective Psychological States in Mothers

Authors: Jeongil Kim

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The present study examined the effects of arts-mediated mother-child dyads mindfulness-based intervention for Korean children with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and their mothers, on behaviors in children and subjective psychological states in mothers. Four elementary school boys with ADHD and their mothers participated in the study. Using a multiple baseline design across four mother-child dyads, data were collected on the target behaviors (disruptive behavior, on-task behavior, and compliance in class) in children using a 10-second partial interval recording system and on the subjective psychological states in mothers using four questionnaires (on perceived stress, burnout, mindfulness, and satisfaction with life). The intervention consisted of a) mindfulness training, b) mindfulness practice, and c) mindful management of body and feeling. The arts activities, making a coiled clay pot and Korean traditional music performance, were utilized to facilitate the environment to help each participant to understand the content and progress of the intervention program. The results showed that all four dyads showed improvement in adaptive behaviors in the children (increase in on-task behavior; decrease in disruptive behavior) and positive change in subjective psychological states in the mothers (increase in scores of mindfulness and satisfaction with life; decrease in scores of perceived stress and burnout). The changes in the children’s behaviors and in the mothers’ subjective psychological states were maintained when the intervention was drawn and generalized in novel settings. The results suggest that arts-mediated mother-child dyads mindfulness-based intervention would be a mutual benefiting strategy to support both children with ADHD and their mothers who experience diverse challenges in behavioral and psychological aspects.

Keywords: mindfulness, attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), arts-mediated, behavior, psychological well-being, child-mother

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753 Electronics Thermal Management Driven Design of an IP65-Rated Motor Inverter

Authors: Sachin Kamble, Raghothama Anekal, Shivakumar Bhavi

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Thermal management of electronic components packaged inside an IP65 rated enclosure is of prime importance in industrial applications. Electrical enclosure protects the multiple board configurations such as inverter, power, controller board components, busbars, and various power dissipating components from harsh environments. Industrial environments often experience relatively warm ambient conditions, and the electronic components housed in the enclosure dissipate heat, due to which the enclosures and the components require thermal management as well as reduction of internal ambient temperatures. Design of Experiments based thermal simulation approach with MOSFET arrangement, Heat sink design, Enclosure Volume, Copper and Aluminum Spreader, Power density, and Printed Circuit Board (PCB) type were considered to optimize air temperature inside the IP65 enclosure to ensure conducive operating temperature for controller board and electronic components through the different modes of heat transfer viz. conduction, natural convection and radiation using Ansys ICEPAK. MOSFET’s with the parallel arrangement, IP65 enclosure molded heat sink with rectangular fins on both enclosures, specific enclosure volume to satisfy the power density, Copper spreader to conduct heat to the enclosure, optimized power density value and selecting Aluminum clad PCB which improves the heat transfer were the contributors towards achieving a conducive operating temperature inside the IP-65 rated Motor Inverter enclosure. A reduction of 52 ℃ was achieved in internal ambient temperature inside the IP65 enclosure between baseline and final design parameters, which met the operative temperature requirements of the electronic components inside the IP-65 rated Motor Inverter.

Keywords: Ansys ICEPAK, aluminium clad PCB, IP 65 enclosure, motor inverter, thermal simulation

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752 Zero Energy Buildings in Hot-Humid Tropical Climates: Boundaries of the Energy Optimization Grey Zone

Authors: Nakul V. Naphade, Sandra G. L. Persiani, Yew Wah Wong, Pramod S. Kamath, Avinash H. Anantharam, Hui Ling Aw, Yann Grynberg

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Achieving zero-energy targets in existing buildings is known to be a difficult task requiring important cuts in the building energy consumption, which in many cases clash with the functional necessities of the building wherever the on-site energy generation is unable to match the overall energy consumption. Between the building’s consumption optimization limit and the energy, target stretches a case-specific optimization grey zone, which requires tailored intervention and enhanced user’s commitment. In the view of the future adoption of more stringent energy-efficiency targets in the context of hot-humid tropical climates, this study aims to define the energy optimization grey zone by assessing the energy-efficiency limit in the state-of-the-art typical mid- and high-rise full AC office buildings, through the integration of currently available technologies. Energy models of two code-compliant generic office-building typologies were developed as a baseline, a 20-storey ‘high-rise’ and a 7-storey ‘mid-rise’. Design iterations carried out on the energy models with advanced market ready technologies in lighting, envelope, plug load management and ACMV systems and controls, lead to a representative energy model of the current maximum technical potential. The simulations showed that ZEB targets could be achieved in fully AC buildings under an average of seven floors only by compromising on energy-intense facilities (as full AC, unlimited power-supply, standard user behaviour, etc.). This paper argues that drastic changes must be made in tropical buildings to span the energy optimization grey zone and achieve zero energy. Fully air-conditioned areas must be rethought, while smart technologies must be integrated with an aggressive involvement and motivation of the users to synchronize with the new system’s energy savings goal.

Keywords: energy simulation, office building, tropical climate, zero energy buildings

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751 Effectiveness of Exercise and TENS in the Treatment of Temporomandibular Joint Disorders

Authors: Arben Murtezani, Shefqet Mrasori, Vančo Spirov, Bukurije Rama, Oliver Dimitrovski, Visar Bunjaku

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Overview: Temporomandibular disorders (TMDs) are chronic musculoskeletal pain conditions. Clinical indicators of discomfort are related to the use of the joint stiffness during first motions after extended rest and restricted joint range of motion can cause substantial pain and disability. There is little evidence that physical therapy methods of management cause long-lasting reduction in signs and symptoms. Exercise programs premeditated to improve physical fitness have beneficial effects on chronic pain and disability of the musculoskeletal system. Objective: The aim of this study was to assess the effectiveness of physical therapy interventions in the management of temporomandibular disorders. Materials and Methods: A prospective comparative study with a 2-month follow-up period was conducted between April 2016 and June 2016 at the Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation Clinic in Prishtina. Forty six patients with TMDs, (more than three months duration of symptoms) were randomized into two groups: the TENS therapy group (n=24) and combination of active exercise and manual therapy group (n=22). The TENS therapy group patients were treated with twelve sessions of TENS. The treatment period of both groups was 3 weeks at an outpatient clinic. Following main outcome measures were evaluated: (1) pain at rest (2) pain at stress (3) impairment (4) mouth opening at base-line, before and after treatment and at 3 month follow-up. Results: Significant reduction in pain was observed in both treatment groups. In the TENS group 73% (16/22) achieved at least 80% improvement from baseline in TMJ pain at 2 months compared with 54% (13/24) in the exercise group (difference of 19%; 95% confidence interval 220 to 30%). Active and passive maximum mouth opening has been greater in the TENS group (p < 0.05). Conclusion: Exercise therapy in combination with TENS seems to be useful in the treatment of temporomandibular disorders.

Keywords: temporomandibular joint disorders, TENS, manual therapy, exercise

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750 Cache Analysis and Software Optimizations for Faster on-Chip Network Simulations

Authors: Khyamling Parane, B. M. Prabhu Prasad, Basavaraj Talawar

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Fast simulations are critical in reducing time to market in CMPs and SoCs. Several simulators have been used to evaluate the performance and power consumed by Network-on-Chips. Researchers and designers rely upon these simulators for design space exploration of NoC architectures. Our experiments show that simulating large NoC topologies take hours to several days for completion. To speed up the simulations, it is necessary to investigate and optimize the hotspots in simulator source code. Among several simulators available, we choose Booksim2.0, as it is being extensively used in the NoC community. In this paper, we analyze the cache and memory system behaviour of Booksim2.0 to accurately monitor input dependent performance bottlenecks. Our measurements show that cache and memory usage patterns vary widely based on the input parameters given to Booksim2.0. Based on these measurements, the cache configuration having least misses has been identified. To further reduce the cache misses, we use software optimization techniques such as removal of unused functions, loop interchanging and replacing post-increment operator with pre-increment operator for non-primitive data types. The cache misses were reduced by 18.52%, 5.34% and 3.91% by employing above technology respectively. We also employ thread parallelization and vectorization to improve the overall performance of Booksim2.0. The OpenMP programming model and SIMD are used for parallelizing and vectorizing the more time-consuming portions of Booksim2.0. Speedups of 2.93x and 3.97x were observed for the Mesh topology with 30 × 30 network size by employing thread parallelization and vectorization respectively.

Keywords: cache behaviour, network-on-chip, performance profiling, vectorization

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749 The Cost of Non-Communicable Diseases in the European Union: A Projection towards the Future

Authors: Desiree Vandenberghe, Johan Albrecht

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Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are responsible for the vast majority of deaths in the European Union (EU) and represent a large share of total health care spending. A future increase in this health and financial burden is likely to be driven by population ageing, lifestyle changes and technological advances in medicine. Without adequate prevention measures, this burden can severely threaten population health and economic development. To tackle this challenge, a correct assessment of the current burden of NCDs is required, as well as a projection of potential increases of this burden. The contribution of this paper is to offer perspective on the evolution of the NCD burden towards the future and to give an indication of the potential of prevention policy. A Non-Homogenous, Semi-Markov model for the EU was constructed, which allowed for a projection of the cost burden for the four main NCDs (cancer, cardiovascular disease, chronic respiratory disease and diabetes mellitus) towards 2030 and 2050. This simulation is done based on multiple baseline scenarios that vary in demand and supply factors such as health status, population structure, and technological advances. Finally, in order to assess the potential of preventive measures to curb the cost explosion of NCDs, a simulation is executed which includes increased efforts for preventive health care measures. According to the Markov model, by 2030 and 2050, total costs (direct and indirect costs) in the EU could increase by 30.1% and 44.1% respectively, compared to 2015 levels. An ambitious prevention policy framework for NCDs will be required if the EU wants to meet this challenge of rising costs. To conclude, significant cost increases due to Non-Communicable Diseases are likely to occur due to demographic and lifestyle changes. Nevertheless, an ambitious prevention program throughout the EU can aid in making this cost burden manageable for future generations.

Keywords: non-communicable diseases, preventive health care, health policy, Markov model, scenario analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 143