Search results for: subjective indicators

Authors: James M. Wakiru, Liliane Pintelon, Peter Muchiri, Stanley Mburu

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Maintenance performance measurement (MPM) represents an integrated aspect that considers both operational and maintenance related aspects while evaluating the effectiveness and efficiency of maintenance to ensure assets are working as they should. Three salient issues require to be addressed for an asset-intensive organization to employ an MPM-based framework to optimize maintenance. Firstly, the organization should establish important perfomance metric(s), in this case the maintenance objective(s), which they will be focuss on. The second issue entails aligning the maintenance objective(s) with maintenance optimization. This is achieved by deriving maintenance performance indicators that subsequently form an objective function for the optimization program. Lastly, the objective function is employed in an optimization program to derive maintenance decision support. In this study, we develop a framework that initially identifies the crucial maintenance performance measures, and employs them to derive maintenance decision support. The proposed framework is demonstrated in a case study of a geothermal drilling rig, where the objective function is evaluated utilizing a simulation-based model whose parameters are derived from empirical maintenance data. Availability, reliability and maintenance inventory are depicted as essential objectives requiring further attention. A simulation model is developed mimicking a drilling rig operations and maintenance where the sub-systems are modelled undergoing imperfect maintenance, corrective (CM) and preventive (PM), with the total cost as the primary performance measurement. Moreover, three maintenance spare inventory policies are considered; classical (retaining stocks for a contractual period), vendor-managed inventory with consignment stock and periodic monitoring order-to-stock (s, S) policy. Optimization results infer that the adoption of (s, S) inventory policy, increased PM interval and reduced reliance of CM actions offers improved availability and total costs reduction.

Keywords: maintenance, vendor-managed, decision support, performance, optimization

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Authors: Fatemeh Najafi

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The major stress factor limiting crop growth and development of sesame (Sesamum indicum L.) is drought stress in arid and semiarid regions of the world. For this study the effects of water stress on some qualitative and quantitative traits in sesame germplasm was conducted in the Research Farm of Seed and Plant Improvement Institute, Karaj, in the crop year. Genotypes in a randomized complete block design with three replications in two environments (moisture stress and normal) were studied in regard of the seed weight, capsule weight, grain yield, biomass, plant height, number of capsules per plant, etc. The characteristics were evaluated based on the combined analysis. Irrigation was based on first class evaporation basin. After flowering stage drought stress was applied. The water deficit reduced growth period. Days to reach full ripening decreased so that the reduction was significant at the five percent level. Drought stress reduces yield and plant biomass. Genotypes based on combined analysis of these two traits were significant at the one percent level. Genotypes differ in terms of yield stress in terms of density plots, grain yield, days to first flowering and days to the half of the cap on the confidence level of five percent and traits of days to emergence of the first capsule and days to reach full ripening at the one percent level were significant. Other traits were not significant. The correlation of traits in circumstances of stress the number of seeds per capsule has the greatest impact on performance. The sensitivity and stress tolerance index was calculated. Based on the indicators, (Fars variety) and variety Karaj were identified as the most tolerant genotypes among the studied genotypes to drought stress. The highest sensitivity indicator of stress was related to genotype (FARS).

Keywords: sesamum, drought, stress, germplasm, resistance

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Authors: Apra Sinha

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The inverted U-shaped Environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) demonstrates(pollution-income relationship)that initially the pollution and environmental degradation surpass the level of income per capita; however this trend reverses since at the higher income levels, economic growth initiates environmental upgrading. However, what effect does increased environmental degradation has on growth is the missing feedback link which has not been addressed in the EKC hypothesis. This paper examines the missing feedback link in EKC hypothesis in Indian context by examining the casual association between fossil fuel consumption, carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth for India. Fossil fuel consumption here has been taken as a proxy of driver of economic growth. The casual association between the aforementioned variables has been analyzed using five interventions namely 1) urban development for which urbanization has been taken proxy 2) industrial development for which industrial value added has been taken proxy 3) trade liberalization for which sum of exports and imports as a share of GDP has been taken as proxy 4)financial development for which a)domestic credit to private sector and b)net foreign assets has been taken as proxies. The choice of interventions for this study has been done keeping in view the economic liberalization perspective of India. The main aim of the paper is to investigate the missing feedback link for Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis before and after incorporating the intervening variables. The period of study is from 1971 to 2011 as it covers pre and post liberalization era in India. All the data has been taken from World Bank country level indicators. The Johansen and Juselius cointegration testing methodology and Error Correction based Granger causality have been applied on all the variables. The results clearly show that out of five interventions, only in two interventions the missing feedback link is being addressed. This paper can put forward significant policy implications for environment protection and sustainable development.

Keywords: environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis, fossil fuel consumption, industrialization, trade liberalization, urbanization

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Authors: Adefarati Oloruntoba, Yongmin Zhang, Hongliang Xiao

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An annular fluidized bed (AFB) is gaining extensive application in the process industry due to its efficient gas-solids contacting. But a direct evaluation of its reaction performance is still lacking. In this paper, comparative 3D Euler–Lagrange multiphase-particle-in-cell (MP-PIC) computations are performed to assess the reaction performance of AFB relative to a bubbling fluidized bed (BFB) in an FCC regeneration process. By using the energy-minimization multi-scale (EMMS) drag model with a suitable heterogeneity index, the MP-PIC simulation predicts the typical fountain region in AFB and solids holdup of BFB, which is consistent with an experiment. Coke combustion rate, flue gas and temperature profile are utilized as the performance indicators, while related bed hydrodynamics are explored to account for the different performance under varying superficial gas velocities (0.5 m/s, 0.6 m/s, and 0.7 m/s). Simulation results indicate that the burning rates of coke and its species are relatively the same in both beds, albeit marginal increase in BFB. Similarly, the shape and evolution time of flue gas (CO, CO₂, H₂O and O₂) curves are indistinguishable but match the coke combustion rates. However, AFB has high proclivity to high temperature-gradient as higher gas and solids temperatures are predicted in the freeboard. Moreover, for both beds, the effect of superficial gas velocity is only conspicuous on the temperature but negligible on combustion efficiency and effluent gas emissions due to constant gas volumetric flow rate and bed loading criteria. Cross-flow of solids from the annulus to the spout region as well as the high primary gas in the AFB directly assume the underlying mechanisms for its unique gas-solids hydrodynamics (pressure, solids holdup, velocity, mass flux) and local spatial homogeneity, which in turn influence the reactor performance. Overall, the study portrays AFB as a cheap alternative reactor to BFB for catalyst regeneration.

Keywords: annular fluidized bed, bubbling fluidized bed, coke combustion, flue gas, fountaining, CFD, MP-PIC, hydrodynamics, FCC regeneration

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Authors: Sergey V. Vinogradov

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Coastal communities are presently facing increased vulnerabilities due to rising sea levels and shifts in global climate patterns, a trend expected to escalate in the long run. To address the needs of government entities, the public sector, and private enterprises, there is an urgent need to thoroughly investigate, assess, and manage the present and projected risks associated with coastal flooding, including storm surges, sea level rise, and nuisance flooding. In response to these challenges, a practical approach to evaluating storm surge inundation risks has been developed. This methodology offers an integrated assessment of potential flood risk in targeted coastal areas. The physical modeling framework involves simulating synthetic storms and utilizing hydrodynamic models that align with projected future climate and ocean conditions. Both publicly available and site-specific data form the basis for a risk assessment methodology designed to translate inundation model outputs into statistically significant projections of expected financial and operational consequences. This integrated approach produces measurable indicators of impacts stemming from floods, encompassing economic and other dimensions. By establishing connections between the frequency of modeled flood events and their consequences across a spectrum of potential future climate conditions, our methodology generates probabilistic risk assessments. These assessments not only account for future uncertainty but also yield comparable metrics, such as expected annual losses for each inundation event. These metrics furnish stakeholders with a dependable dataset to guide strategic planning and inform investments in mitigation. Importantly, the model's adaptability ensures its relevance across diverse coastal environments, even in instances where site-specific data for analysis may be limited.

Keywords: climate, coastal, surge, risk

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Authors: Dilek Dede

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This study aims at scrutinized the dilemma between education place and working place with professional socialization dimension over the beginning teachers in Turkey is to be found the solution for the dilemma in Turkey. The research question is that how can be explained the gap between education place and working place for beginning teachers in Turkey. That expected to contribute to literature with the solutions for shorting the gap between working area and education area of the teaching profession in Turkey case. The study is constructed in two section. Firstly, socialization of the teaching profession and teaching modules have been discussed through the profession, education, working place indicators. In the second section, Secondly, two educational specialists from Turkey has been interviewed about their observation on trainee teachers compelling to participate the class for candidate teachers after university grade. Then, the dilemma between education area and working area of the teaching profession has been detected by of semi-structured and in-depth interviews, the literature on the relationality of institutions and regulation is discussed. The following outcomes have been accessed in accordance with the data set and literature linkage axis: Firstly, teachers coming from the distinctive programmes as an educational background. Hence, teachers who pertain to distinctive cultures work in the same environment. That cause cultural conflicts and complication of socialization of profession. Secondly, the insufficient partnership between schools and universities besides, the education classes lead to a struggle of culture among these two institutions. Thirdly, the education classes are designed as bureaucratic form instead of coalescence between head teachers and trainee teachers around a common culture. That become deep the dilemma. In conclusion, on condition that applied-oriented education that advocates in-service learning is promoted and this programme is supported with well-structured the in-service training through the partnership of universities and schools, the gap between the working-area and education-area might be shortened.

Keywords: beginning teachers, construction of a common, social mobilization in the teaching profession, teacher training institution, the relationality of the regulations and institutions

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Authors: Ehlimana Memisevic

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Genocide denial is considered the final stage of genocide, which in the words of Gregory H. Stanton, represents "one of the most certain indicators of future genocides”. Genocide denial in Bosnia and Herzegovina started in 1992, almost simultaneously with the genocide itself. Over the course of the three decades, different forms of genocide and war crimes denial have been developed by state officials, politicians, journalists, and civilians, both in Republika Srpska – the Serb-dominated entity within Bosnia and Herzegovina – and Serbia. Moreover, genocide and war crimes are not only denied but also glorified and celebrated, which was described as "triumphalism" by the Australian-Bosnian scholar Hariz Halilovich who suggested it be added as the 11th phase of Gregory Stanton's "10 stages of genocide." Since 2007, there have been a number of attempts to criminalize genocide denial at the state level in Bosnia and Herzegovina. However, all of them were unsuccessful due to the opposition of representatives of Republika Srpska. On July 23, 2021, the High Representative in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Valentin Inzko, used his power as the final authority in overseeing the civil implementation of the Dayton Peace Accords to impose amendments to Bosnia and Herzegovina's criminal code to ban the denial and glorification of genocide, crimes against humanity and war crimes. However, immediately after the OHR's decision was announced, Milorad Dodik, a Serb member of Bosnia's tripartite presidency, held a press conference, publicly denied the genocide, and announced that this law would never be accepted in Republika Srpska. Denial remains explicit and public and is promulgated through official channels in Bosnia and Herzegovina. This paper will analyze the forms of genocide and other war crimes denial and glorification in the period after the amendments to the Criminal Code of Bosnia and Herzegovina were introduced, which include incrimination of public condoning, denial, gross trivialization or justification of a crime of genocide, crimes against humanity or a war crime established by a final adjudication of the international and domestic courts. We aim to determine the effect of the imposed law and the impact of the denial committed by high-ranking public officials on the denial and celebration of genocide and war crimes committed by ordinary citizens.

Keywords: genocide, denial, triumphalism, incrimination

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Authors: Bouami Hind, Millot Patrick

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The implementation of automated devices in life-critical systems such as hospitals can bring a new set of challenges related to automation malfunctions. While automation has been identified as great leverage for the medication dispensing system’s security and efficiency, it also increases the complexity of the organization. In particular, the installation and operation stage of automated devices can be complex when malfunctions related to automated systems occur. This paper aims to document operators’ situation awareness about the malfunctions of automated drug delivery systems (ADCs) during their implementation through Saint Brieuc hospital’s feedback. Our evaluation approach has been deployed in Saint Brieuc hospital center’s pharmacy, which has been equipped with automated nominative drug dispensing systems since January of 2021. The analysis of Saint Brieuc hospital center pharmacy’s automation revealed numerous malfunctions related to the implementation of Automated Delivery Cabinets. It appears that the targeted performance is not reached in the first year of implementation in this case study. Also, errors have been collected in patients' automated treatments’ production such as lack of drugs in pill boxes or nominative carnets, excess of drugs, wrong location of the drug, drug blister damaged, non-compliant sachet, or ticket errors. Saint Brieuc hospital center’s pharmacy is doing a tremendous job of setting up and monitoring performance indicators from the beginning of automation and throughout ADC’s operation to control ADC’s malfunctions and meet the performance targeted by the hospital. Health professionals, including pharmacists, biomedical engineers and directors of work, technical services and safety, are heavily involved in an automation project. This study highlights the importance of the evaluation of ADCs’ performance throughout the implementation process and the hospital’s team involvement in automation supervision and management.

Keywords: life-critical systems, situation awareness, automated delivery cabinets, implementation, risks and malfunctions

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Authors: N. Casado-Sanz, B. Guirao

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The population aged 65 and over is projected to double in the coming decades. Due to this increase, driver population is expected to grow and in the near future, all countries will be faced with population aging of varying intensity and in unique time frames. This is the greatest challenge facing industrialized nations and due to this fact, the study of the relationships of dependency between population aging and road safety is becoming increasingly relevant. Although the deterioration of driving skills in the elderly has been analyzed in depth, to our knowledge few research studies have focused on the road infrastructure and the mobility of this particular group of users. In Spain, crosstown roads have one of the highest fatality rates. These rural routes have a higher percentage of elderly people who are more dependent on driving due to the absence or limitations of urban public transportation. Analysing road safety in these routes is very complex because of the variety of the features, the dispersion of the data and the complete lack of related literature. The objective of this paper is to identify key factors that cause traffic accidents. The individuals under study were the accidents with killed or seriously injured in Spanish crosstown roads during the period 2006-2015. Latent cluster analysis was applied as a preliminary tool for segmentation of accidents, considering population aging as the main input among other socioeconomic indicators. Subsequently, a linear regression analysis was carried out to estimate the degree of dependence between the accident rate and the variables that define each group. The results show that segmenting the data is very interesting and provides further information. Additionally, the results revealed the clear influence of the aging variable in the clusters obtained. Other variables related to infrastructure and mobility levels, such as the crosstown roads layout and the traffic intensity aimed to be one of the key factors in the causality of road accidents.

Keywords: cluster analysis, population ageing, rural roads, road safety

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Authors: V. E. Messerle, A. B. Ustimenko, O. A. Lavrichshev

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A large amount of manure and its irrational use negatively affect the environment. As compared with biomass fermentation, plasma processing of manure enhances makes it possible to intensify the process of obtaining fuel gas, which consists mainly of synthesis gas (CO + H₂), and increase plant productivity by 150–200 times. This is achieved due to the high temperature in the plasma reactor and a multiple reduction in waste processing time. This paper examines the plasma processing of biomass using the example of dried mixed animal manure (dung with a moisture content of 30%). Characteristic composition of dung, wt.%: Н₂О – 30, С – 29.07, Н – 4.06, О – 32.08, S – 0.26, N – 1.22, P₂O₅ – 0.61, K₂O – 1.47, СаО – 0.86, MgO – 0.37. The thermodynamic code TERRA was used to numerically analyze dung plasma gasification and pyrolysis. Plasma gasification and pyrolysis of dung were analyzed in the temperature range 300–3,000 K and pressure 0.1 MPa for the following thermodynamic systems: 100% dung + 25% air (plasma gasification) and 100% dung + 25% nitrogen (plasma pyrolysis). Calculations were conducted to determine the composition of the gas phase, the degree of carbon gasification, and the specific energy consumption of the processes. At an optimum temperature of 1,500 K, which provides both complete gasification of dung carbon and the maximum yield of combustible components (99.4 vol.% during dung gasification and 99.5 vol.% during pyrolysis), and decomposition of toxic compounds of furan, dioxin, and benz(a)pyrene, the following composition of combustible gas was obtained, vol.%: СО – 29.6, Н₂ – 35.6, СО₂ – 5.7, N₂ – 10.6, H₂O – 17.9 (gasification) and СО – 30.2, Н₂ – 38.3, СО₂ – 4.1, N₂ – 13.3, H₂O – 13.6 (pyrolysis). The specific energy consumption of gasification and pyrolysis of dung at 1,500 K is 1.28 and 1.33 kWh/kg, respectively. An installation with a DC plasma torch with a rated power of 100 kW and a plasma reactor with a dung capacity of 50 kg/h was used for dung processing experiments. The dung was gasified in an air (or nitrogen during pyrolysis) plasma jet, which provided a mass-average temperature in the reactor volume of at least 1,600 K. The organic part of the dung was gasified, and the inorganic part of the waste was melted. For pyrolysis and gasification of dung, the specific energy consumption was 1.5 kWh/kg and 1.4 kWh/kg, respectively. The maximum temperature in the reactor reached 1,887 K. At the outlet of the reactor, a gas of the following composition was obtained, vol.%: СO – 25.9, H₂ – 32.9, СO₂ – 3.5, N₂ – 37.3 (pyrolysis in nitrogen plasma); СO – 32.6, H₂ – 24.1, СO₂ – 5.7, N₂ – 35.8 (air plasma gasification). The specific heat of combustion of the combustible gas formed during pyrolysis and plasma-air gasification of agricultural waste is 10,500 and 10,340 kJ/kg, respectively. Comparison of the integral indicators of dung plasma processing showed satisfactory agreement between the calculation and experiment.

Keywords: agricultural waste, experiment, plasma gasification, thermodynamic calculation

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Authors: Sitaram Dahal

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Sustainable Development, a universal need for the present generation and the future generation, is an accepted way to assure intra and inter-generational equity. International movements like Rio Earth Summit 1992, Stockholm Conference 1972, Kyoto Protocol, Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) proclaim the need of sustainable globe. The socio- economic disparity prevailing in the society shows that the indigenous peoples are living life far below poverty line. These indigenous people, aboriginal social groups sharing common cultural values and with a unique identity, are away from development being merely focused on the growth. Though studies suggest that most of the indigenous practices are often environment-friendly, alert about the plunging trend of the practices. This study explores the trend of intergenerational transmission of indigenous profession of pottery making of Kumal community (Meghauli Village Development Committee of Chitwan district) and factors affecting the trend. The SD indicators - contribution of IP to well-being of pottery makers had been query in the study. The study reveals that the pottery making profession can stand sustainable in terms of environment and socio-economic capital compared to modern technologies. However, the number of practitioners has been decreasing and youths hardly show interest to continue their indigenous profession. The new generations are not in a stage of accepting pottery in complete profession, that challenges the social and cultural sustainability of the profession. Indigenous profession demand people investments over modern technology and innovations. The relative investment of human labour is dramatically high with the indigenous profession. In addition, the fashion and innovations of market rule challenge the sustainability of the pottery making profession. The practice is limited to small cluster as a show piece at present. The study illustrates the market driven unsustainability of indigenous profession of Kumal community.

Keywords: professional unsustainability, pottery making, Kumal Community, Indigenous Professoin

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Authors: Mohammad Zaeimzade

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The development of communication technologies is clearly and rapidly moving towards reducing the distance between the virtual and real worlds. Of course, living in a two-spatial or two-globalized world or any other interpretation that means mixing real and virtual life is still relevant and debatable. In the present age of communication, where social networks have transformed the message equation and turned the audience out of passivity and turned into a user. Platforms have penetrated widely in various aspects of human life, from culture and education and economy. Among the messengers, Instagram, which is one of the most extensive image-based interactive networks, plays a significant role in the new economic life. It doesn't need much explanation that the era of thinking of every messenger as a non-insulating conductor that is just a neutral load has passed. Every messenger has its own economic, political and of course security background, Instagram is no exception to this rule and of course it leaves its effects in bio-economics as well. Iran, as the 19th largest economy in the world, has not been unaffected by new platforms, including Instagram, and their consequences in the economy. Generally, in the policy-making space, there are two simple and inflexible pessimistic or optimistic views on this issue, and each of the holders of these views usually have their own one-dimensional policy recommendations regarding how to deal with Instagram. Prescriptions that are usually very different and sometimes contradictory. In this article, we show that this confusion of policymakers is the result of not accurately describing the reality of its effect, and the reason for this inaccurate description is the existence of a conflict of interests in the eyes of describers and researchers. In this article, we first take a look at the main indicators of the Iranian economy, estimate the role of the digital economy in Iran's economic growth, then study the conflicting descriptions of the Instagram-based digital economy, the statistics that show the tolerance of economic users of Instagram in Iran. 300 thousand to 9 million have been estimated. Finally, we take a look at the government's actions in this matter, especially in the context of street riots in October and November 2022. And we suggest an intermediate idea.

Keywords: digital economy, instagram, conflict of interest, social networks

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Authors: Arben Murtezani, Shefqet Mrasori, Vančo Spirov, Bukurije Rama, Oliver Dimitrovski, Visar Bunjaku

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Overview: Temporomandibular disorders (TMDs) are chronic musculoskeletal pain conditions. Clinical indicators of discomfort are related to the use of the joint stiffness during first motions after extended rest and restricted joint range of motion can cause substantial pain and disability. There is little evidence that physical therapy methods of management cause long-lasting reduction in signs and symptoms. Exercise programs premeditated to improve physical fitness have beneficial effects on chronic pain and disability of the musculoskeletal system. Objective: The aim of this study was to assess the effectiveness of physical therapy interventions in the management of temporomandibular disorders. Materials and Methods: A prospective comparative study with a 2-month follow-up period was conducted between April 2016 and June 2016 at the Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation Clinic in Prishtina. Forty six patients with TMDs, (more than three months duration of symptoms) were randomized into two groups: the TENS therapy group (n=24) and combination of active exercise and manual therapy group (n=22). The TENS therapy group patients were treated with twelve sessions of TENS. The treatment period of both groups was 3 weeks at an outpatient clinic. Following main outcome measures were evaluated: (1) pain at rest (2) pain at stress (3) impairment (4) mouth opening at base-line, before and after treatment and at 3 month follow-up. Results: Significant reduction in pain was observed in both treatment groups. In the TENS group 73% (16/22) achieved at least 80% improvement from baseline in TMJ pain at 2 months compared with 54% (13/24) in the exercise group (difference of 19%; 95% confidence interval 220 to 30%). Active and passive maximum mouth opening has been greater in the TENS group (p < 0.05). Conclusion: Exercise therapy in combination with TENS seems to be useful in the treatment of temporomandibular disorders.

Keywords: temporomandibular joint disorders, TENS, manual therapy, exercise

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Authors: Javad Sarvestan, Zdenek Svoboda

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Force-time (F-T) curvature characteristics are globally referenced as the main indicators of athletic jump performance. Nevertheless, to the best of authors’ knowledge, no investigation tried to deeply study the relationship between F-T curve variables and real-game jump performance among elite volleyball players. To this end, this study was designated to investigate the association between F-T curve variables, including movement timings, force, velocity, power, rate of force development (RFD), modified reactive strength index (RSImod), and net impulse with spike jump height during real-game circumstances. Twelve young elite volleyball players performed 3 countermovement jump (CMJ) and 3 spike jump in real-game circumstances with 1-minute rest intervals to prevent fatigue. Shapiro-Wilk statistical test illustrated the normality of data distribution, and Pearson’s product correlation test portrayed a significant correlation between CMJ height and peak RFD (0.85), average RFD (r=0.81), RSImod (r=0.88) and concentric net impulse (r=0.98), and also significant correlation between spike jump height and peak RFD (0.73), average RFD (r=0.80), RSImod (r=0.62) and concentric net impulse (r=0.71). Multiple regression analysis also reported that these factors have a strong contribution in predicting of CMJ (98%) and spike jump (77%) heights. Outcomes of this study confirm that the RFD, concentric net impulse, and RSImod values could precisely monitor and track the volleyball attackers’ explosive strength, muscular stretch-shortening cycle function efficiency, and ultimate spike jump height. To this effect, volleyball coaches and trainers are advised to have an in-depth focus on their athletes’ progression or the impacts of strength trainings by observing and chasing the F-T curve variables such as RFD, net impulse, and RSImod.

Keywords: net impulse, reactive strength index, rate of force development, stretch-shortening cycle

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Authors: Rusne Kregzdaite

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The value of the cultural sector stems from the symbolic exploration that differentiates cultural organisations from other product or service organisations. As a result, the cultural sector has a dual impact on the socio-economic system: the economic value (expressed in terms of market relations) created influences the dynamics of the country's financial indicators, while the cultural (non-market) value indirectly contributes to the welfare of the state through changes in societal values, creativity transformations and cultural needs of the country. Measurement of indirect (cultural value) impacts is difficult, but in the case of the cultural sector (especially when it comes to economically inefficient state-funded culture), it helps to reveal the essential characteristics of the sector. The study aims to analyze the value of cultural organisations that are invisible in market processes and to base it on quantified calculations. This was be done by analyzing the usefulness of the consumer, incorporating not only the price paid but also the social and cultural decision-making factors that determine the spectator's choice (time dedicated for a visit, additional costs, content, previous experiences, corporate image). This may reflect the consumer's real choice to consume (all the costs he incurs may be considered the financial equivalent of his experience with the cultural establishment). The research methodology was tested by analyzing the performing arts sector and applying methods to the Lithuanian national drama theatre case. The empirical research consisted of a survey (more than 800 participants) of Lithuanian national drama theatre visitors to different performances. The willingness to pay and travel costs methods were used. Analysis of different performances lets identifies the factor that increases willingness to pay for the performance and affects theatre attendance. The research stresses the importance of cultural value and social perspective of the cultural sector and relates it to the discussions of public funding of culture.

Keywords: cultural economics, performing arts, willingness to pay, travel cost analysis, performing arts management

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Authors: Mahera Abdulrahman, Satish Chandrasekhar Nair

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Growing demand for human health research in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has prompted the need to develop a robust research ethics oversight, particularly given the large unskilled-worker immigrant population and the elderly citizens utilizing health services. Examination of the structure, function, practices and outcomes of the human research ethics committees (HREC) was conducted using two survey instruments, reliable and validated. Results indicate that in the absence of a national ethics regulatory body, the individual emirate’s governed 21 HRECs covering health facilities and academic institutions in the UAE. Among the HRECs, 86% followed International Council for Harmonization-Good Clinical Practice guidelines, 57% have been in operation for more than five years, 81% reviewed proposals within eight weeks, 48% reviewed for clinical and scientific merit apart from ethics, and 43% handled more than 50 research proposals per year. However, researcher recognition, funding transparency, adverse event reporting systems were widespread in less than one-third of all HRECs. Surprisingly, intellectual property right was not included as a research output. Research was incorporated into the vision and mission statements of many (62%) organizations and, mechanisms such as research publications, collaborations, and recognitions were employed as key performance indicators to measure research output. In spite, resources to generate research output such as dedicated budget (19%), support staff (19%) and continuous training and mentoring program for medical residents and HREC members were somehow lacking. HREC structure and operations in the UAE are similar to other regions of the world, resources allocation for efficient, quality monitoring, continuous training, and the creation of a clinical research network are needed to strengthen the clinical research enterprise to scale up for the future. It is anticipated that the results of this study will benefit investigators, regulators, pharmaceutical sponsors and the policy makers in the region.

Keywords: institutional review board, ethics committee, human research ethics, United Arab Emirates (UAE)

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Authors: Damilola Mofikoya

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Developed countries account for a large proportion of greenhouse gas emissions. In the last decade, countries including the United States and China have made a commitment to cut down carbon emissions by signing the Paris Climate Agreement. However, carbon neutrality is a challenging issue to tackle at the country level because of the scale of the problem. To overcome this challenge, cities are at the forefront of these efforts. Many cities in the United States are taking strategic actions and proposing programs and initiatives focused on renewable energy, green transportation, less use of fossil fuel vehicles, etc. There have been concerns about the implications of those strategies and a lack of community engagement. This paper is focused on community-based efforts that help actualize the reduction of carbon footprint through sustained and inclusive action. Existing zero-carbon assessment tools are examined to understand variables and indicators associated with the zero-carbon goals. Based on a broad, systematic review of literature on community strategies, and existing zero-carbon assessment tools, a dashboard was developed to help simplify and demystify carbon neutrality goals at a community level. The literature was able to shed light on the key contributing factors responsible for the success of community efforts in carbon neutrality. Stakeholder education is discussed as one of the strategies to help communities take action and generate momentum. The community-based efforts involving individuals and residents, such as reduction of food wastages, shopping preferences, transit mode choices, and healthy diets, play an important role in the context of zero-carbon initiatives. The proposed community-based dashboard will emphasize the importance of sustained, structured, and collective efforts at a communal scale. Finally, the present study discusses the relationship between life expectancy and quality of life and how it affects carbon neutrality in communities.

Keywords: carbon footprint, communities, life expectancy, quality of life

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Authors: David Gottlieb, Jason Yoder

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The feeling of loneliness is not uncommon in modern society, and yet, there is a fundamental lack of understanding in its origins and purpose in nature. One interpretation of loneliness is that it is a subjective experience that punishes a lack of social behavior, and thus its emergence in human evolution is seemingly tied to the survival of early human tribes. Still, a common counterintuitive response to loneliness is a state of hypervigilance, resulting in social withdrawal, which may appear maladaptive to modern society. So far, no computational model of loneliness’ effect during evolution yet exists; however, agent-based models (ABM) can be used to investigate social behavior, and applying evolution to agents’ behaviors can demonstrate selective advantages for particular behaviors. We propose an ABM where each agent contains four social behaviors, and one goal-seeking behavior, letting evolution select the best behavioral patterns for resource allocation. In our paper, we use an algorithm similar to the boid model to guide the behavior of agents, but expand the set of rules that govern their behavior. While we use cohesion, separation, and alignment for simple social movement, our expanded model adds goal-oriented behavior, which is inspired by particle swarm optimization, such that agents move relative to their personal best position. Since agents are given the ability to form connections by interacting with each other, our final behavior guides agent movement toward its social connections. Finally, we introduce a mechanism to represent a state of loneliness, which engages when an agent's perceived social involvement does not meet its expected social involvement. This enables us to investigate a minimal model of loneliness, and using evolution we attempt to elucidate its value in human survival. Agents are placed in an environment in which they must acquire resources, as their fitness is based on the total resource collected. With these rules in place, we are able to run evolution under various conditions, including resource-rich environments, and when disease is present. Our simulations indicate that there is strong selection pressure for social behavior under circumstances where there is a clear discrepancy between initial resource locations, and against social behavior when disease is present, mirroring hypervigilance. This not only provides an explanation for the emergence of loneliness, but also reflects the diversity of response to loneliness in the real world. In addition, there is evidence of a richness of social behavior when loneliness was present. By introducing just two resource locations, we observed a divergence in social motivation after agents became lonely, where one agent learned to move to the other, who was in a better resource position. The results and ongoing work from this project show that it is possible to glean insight into the evolutionary advantages of even simple mechanisms of loneliness. The model we developed has produced unexpected results and has led to more questions, such as the impact loneliness would have at a larger scale, or the effect of creating a set of rules governing interaction beyond adjacency.

Keywords: agent-based, behavior, evolution, loneliness, social

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Authors: Ahmad AlAbdullah, Ali AlQallaf, Mahdi Hussain, Mohammed AlAttar, Salman Ashknani, Magdy Helal

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We study the effectiveness of the parking service provided at Kuwaiti commercial malls and explore potential problems and feasible improvements. Commercial malls are important to Kuwaitis as the entertainment and shopping centers due to the lack of other alternatives. The difficulty and relatively long times wasted in finding a parking spot at the mall are real annoyances. We applied queuing analysis to one of the major malls that offer paid-parking (1040 parking spots) in addition to free parking. Patrons of the mall usually complained of the traffic jams and delays at entering the paid parking (average delay to park exceeds 15 min for about 62% of the patrons, while average time spent in the mall is about 2.6 hours). However, the analysis showed acceptable service levels at the check-in gates of the parking garage. Detailed review of the vehicle movement at the gateways indicated that arriving and departing cars both had to share parts of the gateway to the garage, which caused the traffic jams and delays. A simple comparison we made indicated that the largest commercial mall in Kuwait does not suffer such parking issues, while other smaller, yet important malls do, including the one we studied. It was suggested that well-designed inlets and outlets of that gigantic mall permitted smooth parking despite being totally free and mall is the first choice for most people for entertainment and shopping. A simulation model is being developed for further analysis and verification. Simulation can overcome the mathematical difficulty in using non-Poisson queuing models. The simulation model is used to explore potential changes to the parking garage entrance layout. And with the inclusion of the drivers’ behavior inside the parking, effectiveness indicators can be derived to address the economic feasibility of extending the parking capacity and increasing service levels. Outcomes of the study are planned to be generalized as appropriate to other commercial malls in Kuwait

Keywords: commercial malls, parking service, queuing analysis, simulation modeling

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Authors: Mohammad Zakir, Saamia Shams

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Background: Provision of quality family planning services remarkably contribute towards increased uptake of modern contraceptive methods and have important implications on reducing fertility rates. The quality of care in family planning has beneficial impact on reproductive health of women, yet little empirical evidence is present to show the relationship between the impact of adequate training of Community Mid Wives (CMW) and quality family planning services. Aim: This study aimed to enhance the knowledge and counseling skills of CMWs in improving the access to quality client-centered family planning services in Pakistan. Methodology: A quasi-experimental longitudinal study using Initial Quality Assurance Scores-Training-Post Training Quality Assurance Scores design with a non- equivalent control group was adopted to compare a set of experimental CMWs that received four days training package including Family Planning Methods, Counselling, Communication skills and Practical training on IUCD insertion with a set of comparison CMWs that did not receive any intervention. A sample size of 100 CMW from Suraj Social Franchise (SSF) private providers was recruited from both urban and rural Pakistan. Results: Significant improvement in the family planning knowledge and counseling skills (p< 0.001) of the CMWs was evident in the experimental group as compared to comparison group with p > 0.05. Non- significant association between pre-test level family planning knowledge and counseling skills was observed in both the groups (p>0.05). Conclusion: The findings demonstrate that adequate training is an important determinant of quality of family planning services received by clients. Provider level training increases the likelihood of contraceptives uptake and decreases the likelihood of both unintended and unwanted pregnancies. Enhancing quality of family planning services may significantly help reduce the fertility and improve the reproductive health indicators of women in Pakistan.

Keywords: community mid wives, family planning services, quality of care, training

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Authors: Dalma Varga, Nora Hubayne H.

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Nowadays, among the measures taken to offset the consequences of climate change, water resources management is one of the key tools, which can include excess water management. As a result of climate change’s effects and as a result of the frequent inappropriate landuse, more and more areas are affected by the excess water inundation. Hungary is located in the deepest part of the Pannonian Basin, which is exposed to water damage – especially lowland areas that are endangered by floods or excess waters. The periodical presence of excess water creates specific habitats in a given area, which have ecological, functional, and aesthetic values. Excess water inundation affects approximately 74% of Hungary’s lowland areas, of which about 46% is also under nature protection (such as national parks, protected landscape areas, nature conservation areas, Natura 2000 sites, etc.). These data prove that areas exposed to excess water inundation – which are predominantly characterized by agricultural land uses – have an important ecological role. Other research works have confirmed the presence of numerous rare and endangered plant species in drainage canals, on grasslands exposed to excess water, and on special agricultural fields with mud vegetation. The goal of this research is to define and analyze ecosystem services of areas exposed to excess water inundation. In addition to this, it is also important to determine the quantified indicators of these areas’ natural and landscape values besides the presence of protected species and the naturalness of habitats, so all in all, to analyze the various nature protections related to excess water. As a result, a practice-orientated assessment method has been developed that provides the ecological water demand, assimilates to ecological and habitat aspects, contributes to adaptive excess water management, and last but not least, increases or maintains the share of the green infrastructure network. In this way, it also contributes to reduce and mitigate the negative effects of climate change.

Keywords: ecosystem services, landscape architecture, excess water management, green infrastructure planning

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Authors: Qiuhu Shao

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Community home-based care service system, which is based on the family pension, supported by community pension and supplied by institutions pension, is an effective pension system to solve the current situation of China's accelerated aging. However, due to the fundamental realities of our country, the government is not able to bear the unilateral supply of the old-age service of the community. Therefore, based on the theory of welfare pluralism, the participation of social organizations in the home-based care service center has become an important part of the diversified supply of the old-age service for the elderly. Meanwhile, the home-based care service industry is still in the early stage, the management is relatively rough, which resulted in a large number of social resources waste. Thus, scientific, objective and long-term implementation is needed for social organizations to participate in home-based care services to guide its performance management. In order to realize the design of the performance management system, the author has done a research work that clarifies the research status of social organization's participation in home-based care service. Relevant theories such as welfare pluralism, community care theory, and performance management theory have been used to demonstrate the feasibility of data envelopment analysis method in social organization performance research. This paper analyzes the characteristics of the operation mode of the home-based care service center, and hackles the national as well as local documents, standards and norms related to the development of the home-based care industry, particularly studies those documents in Nanjing. Based on this, the paper designed a set of performance management PDCA system for home-based care service center in Nanjing and clarified each step of the system in detail. Subsequently, the research methods of performance evaluation and performance management and feedback, which are two core steps of performance management have been compared and screened in order to establish the overall framework of the performance management system of the home-based care service center. Through a large number of research, the paper summarized and analyzed the characteristics of the home-based care service center. Based on the research results, combined with the practice of the industry development in Nanjing, the paper puts forward a targeted performance evaluation index system of home-based care service center in Nanjing. Finally, the paper evaluated and sub-filed the performance of 186 home-based care service centers in Nanjing and then designed the performance optimization direction and performance improvement path based on the results. This study constructs the index system of performance evaluation of home-based care service and makes the index detailed to the implementation level, and constructs the evaluation index system which can be applied directly. Meanwhile, the quantitative evaluation of social organizations participating in the home-based care service changed the subjective impression in the previous practice of evaluation.

Keywords: data envelopment analysis, home-based care, performance management, social organization

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Authors: Eva Maleviti, Evan Stamoulis

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This paper is part of a wider research project, on environmental management in aviation and aerospace industries. The core elements of this research are the level of knowledge, awareness, applicability of environmental management systems, according to employees’ perspectives. This paper focuses at employees’ level of environmental awareness. The main scope of this research is to evaluate the level of environmental awareness and the adoption of environmental management practices. The primary scope of the research is to define a method to quantify the key indicators that would improve the implementation of environmental management. The opinion of people employed in aviation industry is considered, based on the versatility of their working positions. Up to this stage, 330 respondents have participated globally in the current research. This study uses a questionnaire survey to gain an understanding of the views and attitudes of aerospace staff toward environmental management. The results are analyzed through a quantitative approach using SPSS. The statistical significance shows that the data could follow the same distribution as the distribution of the total population that the sample belongs. As of the above, the number of respondents constitutes a representative sample of the total population. A descriptive analysis is presented. According to the responses given in the survey, the data are analyzed according to the working positions and the characteristics of each position that all the respondents hold. The results demonstrate that the level of environmental awareness is immediately linked with the employees’ positions. Managerial/post holder positions, as expected have, a higher level of environmental awareness. However, the level of applicability of environmental practices by the same group is considered low. The other working groups show variability in environmental awareness, which also depends on their operating task and the applicability or not of environmental practices. Flight operations and engineering/maintenance employees, that their tasks involve higher safety considerations, there are more reluctant in applying environmental practices in their positions. In the current paper an analysis of the data collection is presented, correlating them with the working positions and responsibilities of respondents.

Keywords: environmental awareness, environmental management, sustainability, sustainable aviation

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Authors: Anka Gorgiev, Chris Martin, Nikolaos Dimitriadis, Dimitrios V. Nikolaidis

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This paper is part of a doctoral research study aimed to identify behavioral indicators for the existence of the new marketing paradigm. Neuromarketing is becoming a growing trend in the marketing industry worldwide and it is capturing a lot of interest among the members of academia and the practitioner community. However, it is still not very clear how big of an impact neuromarketing might have in the following years. In an effort to get closer to an answer, this study investigates behavioral intentions and willingness to adopt neuromarketing and its practices by the marketing professionals, including academics, practitioners, students, researchers, experts and journal editors. The participants in the study include marketing professionals at different levels of neuromarketing fluency with residency in the United States of America and the South East Europe. The total of 19 participants participated in the interviews, all of whom belong to more than one group of marketing professionals. The authors use qualitative research approach and open-ended interview questions specifically developed to assess ideas, beliefs and opinions that marketing professionals hold towards neuromarketing. In constructing the interview questions, the authors have used the theory of planned behavior, the prototype willingness model and the technology acceptance model as a theoretical framework. Previous studies have not explicitly investigated the behavioral intentions of marketing professionals to engage in neuromarketing behavior, which is described here as a tendency to apply neuromarketing assumptions and tools in usual marketing practices. This study suggests that the marketing professionals believe that neuromarketing can contribute to the business in a positive way and outlines the main advantages and disadvantages of adopting neuromarketing as identified by the participants. In addition, the study reveals an emerging image of an exemplar company that is perceived to be using neuromarketing, including the most common characteristics and attributes. These findings are believed to be crucial in facilitating a way for neuromarketing field to have a broader impact than it currently does by recognizing and understanding the limitations that such exemplars imply and how that has an effect on the decision-making of marketing professionals.

Keywords: behavioral intentions, marketing paradigm, neuromarketing adoption, theory of planned behavior

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Authors: Teklay Tesfay, Gebreyesus Brhane Tesfahunegn, Abadi Berhane, Selemawit Girmay

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Adjusting the proper sowing date of a crop at a particular location with a changing climate is an essential management option to maximize crop yield. However, determining the optimum sowing date for rainfed maize production through field experimentation requires repeated trials for many years in different weather conditions and crop management. To avoid such long-term experimentation to determine the optimum sowing date, crop models such as AquaCrop are useful. Therefore, the overall objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of AquaCrop model in simulating maize productivity under varying sowing dates. A field experiment was conducted for two consecutive cropping seasons by deploying four maize seed sowing dates in a randomized complete block design with three replications. Input data required to run this model are stored as climate, crop, soil, and management files in the AquaCrop database and adjusted through the user interface. Observed data from separate field experiments was used to calibrate and validate the model. AquaCrop model was validated for its performance in simulating the green canopy and aboveground biomass of maize for the varying sowing dates based on the calibrated parameters. Results of the present study showed that there was a good agreement (an overall R2 =, Ef= d= RMSE =) between measured and simulated values of the canopy cover and biomass yields. Considering the overall values of the statistical test indicators, the performance of the model to predict maize growth and biomass yield was successful, and so this is a valuable tool help for decision-making. Hence, this calibrated and validated model is suggested to use for determining optimum maize crop sowing date for similar climate and soil conditions to the study area, instead of conducting long-term experimentation.

Keywords: AquaCrop model, calibration, validation, simulation

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Authors: Maroua Sbiti, Karim Beddiar, Djaoued Beladjine, Romuald Perrault

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Productivity is decreasing in construction compared to the manufacturing industry. It seems that the sector is suffering from organizational problems and have low maturity regarding technological advances. High international competition due to the growing context of globalization, complex projects, and shorter deadlines increases these challenges. Field employees are more exposed to coordination problems than design officers. Execution collaboration is then a major issue that can threaten the cost, time, and quality completion of a project. Initially, this paper will try to identify field professional requirements as to address building management process weaknesses such as the unreliability of scheduling, the fickleness of monitoring and inspection processes, the inaccuracy of project’s indicators, inconsistency of building documents and the random logistic management. Subsequently, we will focus our attention on providing solutions to improve scheduling, inspection, and hours tracking processes using emerging lean tools and field mobility applications that bring new perspectives in terms of cooperation. They have shown a great ability to connect various field teams and make informations visual and accessible to planify accurately and eliminate at the source the potential defects. In addition to software as a service use, the adoption of the human resource module of the Enterprise Resource Planning system can allow a meticulous time accounting and thus make the faster decision making. The next step is to integrate external data sources received from or destined to design engineers, logisticians, and suppliers in a holistic system. Creating a monolithic system that consolidates planning, quality, procurement, and resources management modules should be our ultimate target to build the construction industry supply chain.

Keywords: lean, last planner system, field mobility applications, construction productivity

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Authors: Dmitry Usenco

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The greatest paradox about the origin of language is the fact that, while language is always taught by adults to children, it can never be learnt properly unless its acquisition occurs during childhood. The question that naturally arises in that respect is as follows: How could language be taught for the first time by a non-speaker, i.e., by someone who did not have the opportunity to master it as a child? Yet the above paradox will appear less unresolvable if we hypothesise that language was originally introduced not as a means of communication but as a relatively modest training/playing technique that was used to develop the learners’ mimetic skills. Its communicative and expressive properties could have been discovered and exploited later – upon the learners’ reaching their adulthood. The importance of mimesis in children’s development is universally recognised. The most common forms of it are onomatopoeia and mime, which consist in reproducing sounds and imitating shapes/movements of externally observed objects. However, in some cases, neither of these exercises can be adequate to the task. An object, especially an inanimate one, may emit no characteristic sounds, making onomatopoeia problematic. In other cases, it may have no easily reproduceable shape, while its movements may depend on the specific way of our interacting with it. On such occasions, onomatopoeia and mime can perhaps be supplemented, or even replaced, by movements of the tongue which can metonymically represent certain aspects of our interaction with the object. This is especially evident with consonants: e.g., a fricative sound can designate the subject’s relatively slow approach to the object or vice versa, while a plosive one can express the relatively abrupt process of grabbing/sticking or parrying/bouncing. From that point of view, a protoword can be regarded as a sophisticated gesture of the tongue but also as a mnemonic sequence that contains encoded instructions about the way to handle the object. When this originally subjective link between the object and its mimetic/mnemonic representation eventually installs itself in the collective mind (however small at first the community might be), the initially nameless object acquires a name, and the first word is created. (Discussing the difference between proper and common names is out of the scope of this paper). In its very beginning, this word has two major applications. It can be used for interhuman communication because it allows us to invoke the presence of a currently absent object. It can also be used for designing, expressing, and memorising our interaction with the object itself. The first usage gives rise to language, the second to religion. By the act of naming, we attach to the object a mental (‘spiritual’) dimension which has an independent existence in our collective mind. By referring to the name (idea/demon/soul) of the object, we perform our first act of spirituality, our first religious observance. This is the beginning of animism – arguably, the most ancient form of religion. To conclude: the rise of religion is simultaneous with the the emergence of language in human evolution.

Keywords: language, religion, origin, acquisition, childhood, adulthood, play, represntation, onomatopoeia, mime, gesture, consonant, simultaneity, spirituality, animism

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Authors: Victoria Bila, Iryna Ventskivska, Oleksandra Zahorodnia

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The goal of the study: To study the distribution of patients of the Kiyv Perinatal Center according to the Robson system and compare it with world data. Materials and methods: a comparison of the distribution of patients of Kiyv Perinatal center according to the Robson system for 2 periods - the first quarter of 2019 and 2020. For each group, 3 indicators were analyzed - the share of this group in the overall structure of patients of the Perinatal Center for the reporting period, the frequency of abdominal delivery in this group, as well as the contribution of this group to the total number of abdominal delivery. Obtained data were compared with those of the WHO in the guidelines for the implementation of the Robson system in 2017. Results and its discussion: The distribution of patients of the Perinatal Center into groups in the Robson classification is not much different from that recommended by the author. So, among all women, patients of group 1 dominate; this indicator does not change in dynamics. A slight increase in the share of group 2 (6.7% in 2019 and 9.3% - 2020) was due to an increase in the number of labor induction. At the same time, the number of patients of groups 1 and 2 in the Perinatal Center is greater than in the world population, which is determined by the hospitalization of primiparous women with reproductive losses in the past. The Perinatal Center is distinguished from the world population and the proportion of women of group 5 - it was 5.4%, in the world - 7.6%. The frequency of caesarean section in the Perinatal Center is within limits typical for most countries (20.5-20.8%). Moreover, the dominant groups in the structure of caesarean sections are group 5 (21-23.3%) and group 2 (21.9-22.9%), which are the reserve for reducing the number of abdominal delivery. In group 2, certain results have already been achieved in this matter - the frequency of cesarean section in 2019 here amounted to 67.8%, in the first quarter of 2020 - 51.6%. This happened due to a change in the leading method of induction of labor. Thus, the Robson system is a convenient and affordable tool for assessing the structure of caesarean sections. The analysis showed that, in general, the structure of caesarean sections in the Perinatal Center is close to world data, and the identified deviations have explanations related to the specialization of the Center.

Keywords: cesarian section, Robson system, Kyiv Perinatal Center, labor induction

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Authors: Ignatius Madu

Abstract:

The study aims at assessing the environmental and socioeconomic determinants of climate change resilience in rural Nigeria. This is necessary because researches and development efforts on building climate change resilience of rural areas in developing countries are usually made without the knowledge of the impacts of the inherent rural characteristics that determine resilient capacities of the households. This has, in many cases, led to costly mistakes, delayed responses, inaccurate outcomes, and other difficulties. Consequently, this assessment becomes crucial not only to policymakers and people living in risk-prone environments in rural areas but also to fill the research gap. To achieve the aim, secondary data were obtained from the Annual Abstract of Statistics 2017, LSMS-Integrated Surveys on Agriculture and General Household Survey Panel 2015/2016, and National Agriculture Sample Survey (NASS), 2010/2011.Resilience was calculated by weighting and adding the adaptive, absorptive and anticipatory measures of households variables aggregated at state levels and then regressed against rural environmental and socioeconomic characteristics influencing it. From the regression, the coefficients of the variables were used to compute the impacts of the variables using the Stochastic Regression of Impacts on Population, Affluence and Technology (STIRPAT) Model. The results showed that the northern States are generally low in resilient indices and are impacted less by the development indicators. The major determining factors are percentage of non-poor, environmental protection, road transport development, landholding, agricultural input, population density, dependency ratio (inverse), household asserts, education and maternal care. The paper concludes that any effort to a successful resilient building in rural areas of the country should first address these key factors that enhance rural development and wellbeing since it is better to take action before shocks take place.

Keywords: climate change resilience; spatial impacts; STIRPAT model; Nigeria

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Authors: Yi-Fan Lin, Peter P. Howley, Frank A. Tuyl

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Quality measurement and reporting systems are used in healthcare internationally. In Australia, the Australian Council on Healthcare Standards records and reports hundreds of clinical indicators (CIs) nationally across the healthcare system. These CIs are measures of performance in the clinical setting, and are used as a screening tool to help assess whether a standard of care is being met. Existing analysis and reporting of these CIs incorporate Bayesian methods to address sampling variation; however, such assessments are retrospective in nature, reporting upon the previous six or twelve months of data. The use of Bayesian methods within statistical process control for monitoring systems is an important pursuit to support more timely decision-making. Our research has developed and assessed a new graphical monitoring tool, similar to a control chart, based on the beta-binomial posterior predictive (BBPP) distribution to facilitate the real-time assessment of health care organizational performance via CIs. The BBPP charts have been compared with the traditional Bernoulli CUSUM (BC) chart by simulation. The more traditional “central” and “highest posterior density” (HPD) interval approaches were each considered to define the limits, and the multiple charts were compared via in-control and out-of-control average run lengths (ARLs), assuming that the parameter representing the underlying CI rate (proportion of cases with an event of interest) required estimation. Preliminary results have identified that the BBPP chart with HPD-based control limits provides better out-of-control run length performance than the central interval-based and BC charts. Further, the BC chart’s performance may be improved by using Bayesian parameter estimation of the underlying CI rate.

Keywords: average run length (ARL), bernoulli cusum (BC) chart, beta binomial posterior predictive (BBPP) distribution, clinical indicator (CI), healthcare organization (HCO), highest posterior density (HPD) interval

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