Search results for: decisions under uncertainty

Authors: A. Yakub AbdurRaheem

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Urban violence in the form of ethnic and religious conflicts have been on the increase in many African cities in the recent years of which most of them are the result of intense and bitter competition for political power, the control of limited economic, social and environmental resources. In Nigeria, the emergence of the Boko Haram insurgency in most parts of the northeastern parts have ignited violence, bloodshed, refugee exodus and internal migration. Not only do the persistent attacks of the sect create widespread insecurity and fear, but it has also stifled normal processes of trade and investments most especially real property investment which is acclaimed to accelerate the economic cycle, thus the need to evolve strategies for an improved property market in such areas. This paper, therefore, examines the impact of this social crisis on effective and efficient utilization of real properties as a resource towards the development of the economy, using a descriptive analysis approach where particular emphasis was based on trends in residential housing values; volume of estimated property transactions and real estate investment decisions by affected individuals. Findings indicate that social crisis in the affected areas have been a clog on the wheels of property development and investment as properties worth hundreds of millions have been destroyed thereby having great impact on property values. Based on these findings, recommendations were made to include the need to strategically continue investing in property during such times, the need for Nigerian government to establish an active conflict monitoring and management unit for the prompt response, encourage community and neighborhood policing to ameliorate security challenges in Nigeria.

Keywords: social crisis, economy, resources, property market

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Authors: Camille Lacan, Pierre Desmet

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In the crowdfunding model, a campaign succeeds by collecting the funds required over a predefined duration. The success of a CF campaign depends both on the capacity to attract members of the online communities concerned, and on the community members’ involvement in online word-of-mouth recommendations. To maximize the campaign's success probability, project creators (i.e., an organization appealing for financial resources) send messages to contributors to ask them to issue word of mouth. Internet users relay information about projects through Word of Mouth which is defined as “a critical tool for facilitating information diffusion throughout online communities”. The effectiveness of these messages depends on the message framing and the time at which they are sent to contributors (i.e., at the start of the campaign or close to the deadline). This article addresses the following question: What are the effect of message framing and temporal distance on the willingness to share word of mouth? Drawing on Perspectives Theory and Construal Level Theory, this study examines the interplay between message framing (Gains vs. Losses) and temporal distance (message while the deadline is coming vs. far) on intention to share word of mouth. A between-subject experimental design is conducted to test the research model. Results show significant differences between a loss-framed message (lack of benefits if the campaign fails) associated with a short deadline (ending tomorrow) compared to a gain-framed message (benefits if the campaign succeeds) associated with a distant deadline (ending in three months). However, this effect is moderated by the anticipated regret of a campaign failure and the temporal orientation. These moderating effects contribute to specifying the boundary condition of the framing effect. Handling the message framing and the temporal distance are thus the key decisions to influence the willingness to share word of mouth.

Keywords: construal levels, crowdfunding, message framing, word of mouth

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Authors: Ju Peng Poh, Jun Yu Charles Lee, Jonathan Chew Hoe Khoo

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The emergence of digital twin technology, a digital replica of physical world, has improved the real-time access to data from sensors about the performance of buildings. This digital transformation has opened up many opportunities to improve the management of the building by using the data collected to help monitor consumption patterns and energy leakages. One example is the integration of predictive models for anomaly detection. In this paper, we use the GAM (Generalised Additive Model) for the anomaly detection of Air Handling Units (AHU) power consumption pattern. There is ample research work on the use of GAM for the prediction of power consumption at the office building and nation-wide level. However, there is limited illustration of its anomaly detection capabilities, prescriptive analytics case study, and its integration with the latest development of digital twin technology. In this paper, we applied the general GAM modelling framework on the historical data of the AHU power consumption and cooling load of the building between Jan 2018 to Aug 2019 from an education campus in Singapore to train prediction models that, in turn, yield predicted values and ranges. The historical data are seamlessly extracted from the digital twin for modelling purposes. We enhanced the utility of the GAM model by using it to power a real-time anomaly detection system based on the forward predicted ranges. The magnitude of deviation from the upper and lower bounds of the uncertainty intervals is used to inform and identify anomalous data points, all based on historical data, without explicit intervention from domain experts. Notwithstanding, the domain expert fits in through an optional feedback loop through which iterative data cleansing is performed. After an anomalously high or low level of power consumption detected, a set of rule-based conditions are evaluated in real-time to help determine the next course of action for the facilities manager. The performance of GAM is then compared with other approaches to evaluate its effectiveness. Lastly, we discuss the successfully deployment of this approach for the detection of anomalous power consumption pattern and illustrated with real-world use cases.

Keywords: anomaly detection, digital twin, generalised additive model, GAM, power consumption, supervised learning

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Authors: R. M. Rajapaksa

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Construction industry is one of the key players in driving the economy of a country to achieve its prosperity. However, a dispute is one of the crucial factors which prevent the completion of construction contracts within the budgeted cost, scheduled time, and accepted quality. Disputes are inevitable in the construction contract. Accordingly, a study has been undertaken to identify the factors affecting contractual disputes in construction projects in Sri Lanka. The study was a mixed approach with major qualitative and minor quantitative. Qualitative study was set in the form of in-depth interviews with eighteen participants, and quantitative study was conducted using a questionnaire with twenty-four respondents from previously implemented projects by the National Water Supply & Drainage Board representing the employer, engineer and the Contractor to identify the factors affecting contractual disputes and to verify most critical factors respectively. Data analysis for qualitative and quantitative studies was carried out by means of transcribing, code & categorizeand average score methods, respectively. The study reveals that there are forty factors affecting the contractual disputes in construction contracts in Sri Lanka. The finding further illustrates that conflicting decisions by inexperience personnel in the higher position of the Employer, ambiguities resulting inadequate descriptions of the preliminary/general items in price schedule, unfair valuation and late confirmation of variations, unfair determination due to lack of experience of the Engineer/Consultant, under certification of progress payments, unfair grant of EOT & application of delay damages, unreasonable claims for variation of works, errors/discrepancies/ambiguities in the contract conditions and discrepancies & errors in designs & specifications are the most critical factors affecting contractual disputes. Finally, the study proposed remedial measures to most critical factors affecting contractual disputes.

Keywords: dispute, contractual, factors, employer, engineer, contractor, construction projects

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Authors: Arefeh Arabaninezhad, Ali Fakher

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Since the deterministic analysis methods fail to take system uncertainties into account, probabilistic and non-probabilistic methods are suggested. Geotechnical analyses are used to determine the stress and deformation caused by construction; accordingly, many input variables which depend on ground behavior are required for geotechnical analyses. The Random Set approach is an applicable reliability analysis method when comprehensive sources of information are not available. Using Random Set method, with relatively small number of simulations compared to fully probabilistic methods, smooth extremes on system responses are obtained. Therefore random set approach has been proposed for reliability analysis in geotechnical problems. In the present study, the application of random set method in reliability analysis of deep excavations is investigated through three deep excavation projects which were monitored during the excavating process. A finite element code is utilized for numerical modeling. Two expected ranges, from different sources of information, are established for each input variable, and a specific probability assignment is defined for each range. To determine the most influential input variables and subsequently reducing the number of required finite element calculations, sensitivity analysis is carried out. Input data for finite element model are obtained by combining the upper and lower bounds of the input variables. The relevant probability share of each finite element calculation is determined considering the probability assigned to input variables present in these combinations. Horizontal displacement of the top point of excavation is considered as the main response of the system. The result of reliability analysis for each intended deep excavation is presented by constructing the Belief and Plausibility distribution function (i.e. lower and upper bounds) of system response obtained from deterministic finite element calculations. To evaluate the quality of input variables as well as applied reliability analysis method, the range of displacements extracted from models has been compared to the in situ measurements and good agreement is observed. The comparison also showed that Random Set Finite Element Method applies to estimate the horizontal displacement of the top point of deep excavation. Finally, the probability of failure or unsatisfactory performance of the system is evaluated by comparing the threshold displacement with reliability analysis results.

Keywords: deep excavation, random set finite element method, reliability analysis, uncertainty

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Authors: S. A. N. Danushka, T. A. Weerasinghe

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The diverse necessities of instruction could be addressed effectively with the support of new dimensions of ICT integrated learning such as blended learning –which is a combination of face-to-face and online instruction which ensures greater flexibility in student learning and congruity of course delivery. As blended learning has been the ‘new normality' in education, many experimental and quasi-experimental research studies provide ample of evidence on its successful implementation in many fields of studies, but it is hard to justify whether blended learning could work similarly in the delivery of technology-teacher development programmes (TTDPs). The present study is bound with the particular research uncertainty, and having considered existing research approaches, the study methodology was set to decide the efficient instructional strategies for flipped classroom learning in TTDPs. In a quasi-experimental pre-test and post-test design with a mix-method research approach, the major study objective was tested with two heterogeneous samples (N=135) identified in a virtual learning environment in a Sri Lankan university. Non-randomized informal ‘before-and-after without control group’ design was employed, and two data collection methods, identical pre-test and post-test and Likert-scale questionnaires were used in the study. Selected two instructional strategies, self-directed learning (SDL) and self-regulated learning (SRL), were tested in an appropriate instructional framework with two heterogeneous samples (pre-service and in-service teachers). Data were statistically analyzed, and an efficient instructional strategy was decided via t-test, ANOVA, ANCOVA. The effectiveness of the two instructional strategy implementation models was decided via multiple linear regression analysis. ANOVA (p < 0.05) shows that age, prior-educational qualifications, gender, and work-experiences do not impact on learning achievements of the two diverse groups of learners through the instructional strategy is changed. ANCOVA (p < 0.05) analysis shows that SDL is efficient for two diverse groups of technology-teachers than SRL. Multiple linear regression (p < 0.05) analysis shows that the staged self-directed learning (SSDL) model and four-phased model of motivated self-regulated learning (COPES Model) are efficient in the delivery of course content in flipped classroom learning.

Keywords: COPES model, flipped classroom learning, self-directed learning, self-regulated learning, SSDL model

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Authors: Kyle Burke Pfeiffer, Carmella Burdi, Karen Marsh

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The evacuation and shelter-in-place planning process employed by most jurisdictions within the United States is not informed by a scientifically-derived framework that is inclusive of the behavioral and policy-related indicators of public compliance with evacuation orders. While a significant body of work exists to define these indicators, the research findings have not been well-integrated nor translated into useable planning factors for public safety officials. Additionally, refinement of the planning factors alone is insufficient to support science-based evacuation planning as the behavioral elements of evacuees—even with consideration of policy-related indicators—must be examined in the context of specific regional transportation and shelter networks. To address this problem, the Federal Emergency Management Agency and Argonne National Laboratory developed an agent-based model to support regional analysis of zone-based evacuation in southeastern Georgia. In particular, this model allows public safety officials to analyze the consequences that a range of hazards may have upon a community, assess evacuation and shelter-in-place decisions in the context of specified evacuation and response plans, and predict outcomes based on community compliance with orders and the capacity of the regional (to include extra-jurisdictional) transportation and shelter networks. The intention is to use this model to aid evacuation planning and decision-making. Applications for the model include developing a science-driven risk communication strategy and, ultimately, in the case of evacuation, the shortest possible travel distance and clearance times for evacuees within the regional boundary conditions.

Keywords: agent-based modeling for evacuation, decision-support for evacuation planning, evacuation planning, human behavior in evacuation

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Authors: Hussain Ali, Ahmad Ali, Syed Rashid Ali

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The maternal mortality is one of the basic health issues faced by rural women in Pakistan. There are various structural and socio-cultural determinants which confine women to domestic sphere. Such mobility restriction compels women for home delivery which causes high maternal mortality and morbidity. However, it is hard to find out the research findings and well-organized literature that explain the cultural factors act as determinant to home delivery among Pakhtun women. The overall objective of this research is to study men’s decision making within the household in Pakhtun society as determinant of home delivery among Pakhtun women in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province of Pakistan. In the present study, researchers used the quantitative research design in which the data are collected through household survey technique from (n=503) ever-married women having reproductive age (15-49 years) by using interview schedule. The data are analyzed through SPSS, and binary logistic regression was applied to draw the association between home as a place of delivery and men’s decision making in the Pakhtun society. The results show that majority (76%) of the husbands are key decision makers about the home delivery due to their superior position within household. Similarly, majority (88%) Pakhtun women prefer to stay in home for their delivery due to their dependency on husband’s decision. The researcher concludes that men are key decision makers in Pakhtun society and their decisions affect women maternal health care. Similarly, the women are in subordinate position, and their limited decision making in the domestic sphere are greatly responsible for home delivery which causing high maternal mortality rate in the study area. In order to achieve Sustainable Development Goal No. 3, the study recommends empowering women in the decision making about accessing and utilizing maternal health care services and given financial autonomy to them.

Keywords: home delivery, men’s decision, Pakhtun women, subordinate position

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Authors: Ammar Y. Alqahtani

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In order to minimize the negative impact on the environment, it is essential to manage the waste that generated from the premature disposal of end-of-life (EOL) products properly. Consequently, government and international organizations introduced new policies and regulations to minimize the amount of waste being sent to landfills. Moreover, the consumers’ awareness regards environment has forced original equipment manufacturers to consider being more environmentally conscious. Therefore, manufacturers have thought of different ways to deal with waste generated from EOL products viz., remanufacturing, reusing, recycling, or disposing of EOL products. The rate of depletion of virgin natural resources and their dependency on the natural resources can be reduced by manufacturers when EOL products are treated as remanufactured, reused, or recycled, as well as this will cut on the amount of harmful waste sent to landfills. However, disposal of EOL products contributes to the problem and therefore is used as a last option. Number of EOL need to be estimated in order to fulfill the components demand. Then, disassembly process needs to be performed to extract individual components and subassemblies. Smart products, built with sensors embedded and network connectivity to enable the collection and exchange of data, utilize sensors that are implanted into products during production. These sensors are used for remanufacturers to predict an optimal warranty policy and time period that should be offered to customers who purchase remanufactured components and products. Sensor-provided data can help to evaluate the overall condition of a product, as well as the remaining lives of product components, prior to perform a disassembly process. In this paper, a multi-period disassembly-to-order (DTO) model is developed that takes into consideration the different system uncertainties. The DTO model is solved using Nonlinear Programming (NLP) in multiple periods. A DTO system is considered where a variety of EOL products are purchased for disassembly. The model’s main objective is to determine the best combination of EOL products to be purchased from every supplier in each period which maximized the total profit of the system while satisfying the demand. This paper also addressed the impact of sensor embedded products on the cost of warranties. Lastly, this paper presented and analyzed a case study involving various simulation conditions to illustrate the applicability of the model.

Keywords: closed-loop supply chains, environmentally conscious manufacturing, product recovery, reverse logistics

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Authors: Fleura Shkëmbi, Valbona Treska

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In elementary school, we discover that a metaphor is a decorative linguistic device just for poets. But now that we know, it's also a crucial tactic that individuals employ to understand the universe, from fundamental ideas like time and causation to the most pressing societal challenges today. Metaphor is the use of language to refer to something other than what it was originally intended for or what it "literally" means in order to suggest a similarity or establish a connection between the two. People do not identify metaphors as relevant in their decisions, according to a study on metaphor and its effect on decision-making; instead, they refer to more "substantive" (typically numerical) facts as the basis for their problem-solving decision. Every day, metaphors saturate our lives via language, cognition, and action. They argue that our conceptions shape our views and interactions with others and that concepts define our reality. Metaphor is thus a highly helpful tool for both describing our experiences to others and forming notions for ourselves. In therapeutic contexts, their shared goal appears to be twofold. The cognitivist approach to metaphor regards it as one of the fundamental foundations of human communication. The benefits and disadvantages of utilizing the metaphor differ depending on the target domain that the metaphor portrays. The challenge of creating messages and surroundings that affect customers' notions of abstract ideas in a variety of industries, including health, hospitality, romance, and money, has been studied for decades in marketing and consumer psychology. The aim of this study is to examine, through a systematic literature review, the role of the metaphor in communication and in advertising. This study offers a selected analysis of this literature, concentrating on research on customer attitudes and product appraisal. The analysis of the data identifies potential research questions. With theoretical and applied implications for marketing, design, and persuasion, this study sheds light on how, when, and for whom metaphoric communications are powerful.

Keywords: metaphor, communication, advertising, cognition, action

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Authors: Saadia Izzeldin Malik

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Lack of ethics is the crisis of the 21-century. Today’s global world is filled with economic, political, environmental, media/communication, and social crises that all generated by the eroding fabric of ethics and moral values that guide human’s decisions in all aspects of live. Our global world is guided by liberal western democratic principles and liberal capitalist economic principles that define and reinforce each other. In economic terms, capitalism has turned world economic systems into one market place of ideas and products controlled by big multinational corporations that not only determine the conditions and terms of commodity production and commodity exchange between countries, but also transform the political economy of media systems around the globe. The citizen (read the consumer) today is the target of persuasion by all types of media at a time when her/his interests should be, ethically and in principle, the basic significant factor in the selection of media content. It is very important in this juncture of clashing media values –professional and commercial- and wide spread ethical lapses of media organizations and media professionals to think of a perspective to theorize these conflicting values within a broader framework of media ethics. Thus, the aim of this paper is to, epistemologically, bring to the center a perspective on media ethics as a basis for reconciliation of clashing values of the media. The paper focuses on conflicting ethical values in current media debate; namely ownership of media vs. press freedom, individual right for privacy vs. public right to know, and global western consumerism values vs. media values. The paper concludes that a framework to reconcile conflicting values of media ethics should focus on the “individual” journalist and his/her moral development as well as focus on maintaining ethical principles of the media as an institution with a primary social responsibility for the “public” it serves.

Keywords: ethics, media, journalism, social responsibility, conflicting values, global

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Authors: Guenther Schuh, Michael Riesener, Frederic Diels

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Nowadays, manufacturing companies are faced with the challenge of meeting heterogeneous customer requirements in short product life cycles with a variety of product functions. So far, some of the functional requirements remain unknown until late stages of the product development. A way to handle these uncertainties is the highly iterative product development (HIP) approach. By structuring the development project as a highly iterative process, this method provides customer oriented and marketable products. There are first approaches for combined, hybrid models comprising deterministic-normative methods like the Stage-Gate process and empirical-adaptive development methods like SCRUM on a project management level. However, almost unconsidered is the question, which development scopes can preferably be realized with either empirical-adaptive or deterministic-normative approaches. In this context, a development scope constitutes a self-contained section of the overall development objective. Therefore, this paper focuses on a methodology that deals with the uncertainty of requirements within the early development stages and the corresponding selection of the most appropriate development approach. For this purpose, internal influencing factors like a company’s technology ability, the prototype manufacturability and the potential solution space as well as external factors like the market accuracy, relevance and volatility will be analyzed and combined into an Agile-Indicator. The Agile-Indicator is derived in three steps. First of all, it is necessary to rate each internal and external factor in terms of the importance for the overall development task. Secondly, each requirement has to be evaluated for every single internal and external factor appropriate to their suitability for empirical-adaptive development. Finally, the total sums of internal and external side are composed in the Agile-Indicator. Thus, the Agile-Indicator constitutes a company-specific and application-related criterion, on which the allocation of empirical-adaptive and deterministic-normative development scopes can be made. In a last step, this indicator will be used for a specific clustering of development scopes by application of the fuzzy c-means (FCM) clustering algorithm. The FCM-method determines sub-clusters within functional clusters based on the empirical-adaptive environmental impact of the Agile-Indicator. By means of the methodology presented in this paper, it is possible to classify requirements, which are uncertainly carried out by the market, into empirical-adaptive or deterministic-normative development scopes.

Keywords: agile, highly iterative development, agile-indicator, product development

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Authors: A. Martins, I. Martins, O. Pereira

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The purpose of this research is to focus on the importance of distributed leadership in universities and Higher Education Institutions (HEIs). The research question is whether there a significant finding in self-reported ratings of leadership styles of those respondents that are studying management. The study aims to further discover whether students are encouraged to become responsible and proactive citizens, to develop their skills set, specifically shared leadership and higher-level skills to inspire creation knowledge, sharing and distribution thereof. Contemporary organizations need active and responsible individuals who are capable to make decisions swiftly and responsibly. Leadership influences innovative results and education play a dynamic role in preparing graduates. Critical reflection of extant literature indicates a need for a culture of leadership and innovation to promote organizational sustainability in the globalised world. This study debates the need for HEIs to prepare the graduate for both organizations and society as a whole. This active collaboration should be the very essence of both universities and the industry in order for these to achieve responsible sustainability. Learning and innovation further depend on leadership efficacy. This study follows the pragmatic paradigm methodology. Primary data collection is currently being gathered via the web-based questionnaire link which was made available on the UKZN notice system. The questionnaire has 35 items with a Likert scale of five response options. The purposeful sample method was used, and the population entails the undergraduate and postgraduate students in the College of Law and Business, University of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Limitations include the design of the study and the reliance on the quantitative data as the only method of primary data collection. This study is of added value for scholars and organizations in the innovation economy.

Keywords: knowledge creation, learning, performance, sustainability

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Authors: Taha SamadSoltani, Peyman Rezaei Hachesu, Marjan GhaziSaeedi, Maryam Zolnoori

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Introduction: Data mining defined as a process to find patterns and relationships along data in the database to build predictive models. Application of data mining extended in vast sectors such as the healthcare services. Medical data mining aims to solve real-world problems in the diagnosis and treatment of diseases. This method applies various techniques and algorithms which have different accuracy and precision. The purpose of this study was to apply knowledge discovery and data mining techniques for the diagnosis of asthma based on patient symptoms and history. Method: Data mining includes several steps and decisions should be made by the user which starts by creation of an understanding of the scope and application of previous knowledge in this area and identifying KD process from the point of view of the stakeholders and finished by acting on discovered knowledge using knowledge conducting, integrating knowledge with other systems and knowledge documenting and reporting.in this study a stepwise methodology followed to achieve a logical outcome. Results: Sensitivity, Specifity and Accuracy of KNN, SVM, Naïve bayes, NN, Classification tree and CN2 algorithms and related similar studies was evaluated and ROC curves were plotted to show the performance of the system. Conclusion: The results show that we can accurately diagnose asthma, approximately ninety percent, based on the demographical and clinical data. The study also showed that the methods based on pattern discovery and data mining have a higher sensitivity compared to expert and knowledge-based systems. On the other hand, medical guidelines and evidence-based medicine should be base of diagnostics methods, therefore recommended to machine learning algorithms used in combination with knowledge-based algorithms.

Keywords: asthma, datamining, classification, machine learning

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Authors: Mohamed Boullouz, Mohamed Louay Metougui

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Accurate modeling of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, crop growth, soil productivity, and biochemical processes is crucial considering escalating global concerns about climate change and the urgent need to improve agricultural sustainability. The application of the denitrification-disintegration (DNDC) model in the context of Morocco's unique agro-climate is thoroughly investigated in this study. Our main research hypothesis is that the DNDC model offers an effective and powerful tool for precisely simulating a wide range of significant parameters, including greenhouse gas emissions, crop growth, yield potential, and complex soil biogeochemical processes, all consistent with the intricate features of environmental Moroccan agriculture. In order to verify these hypotheses, a vast amount of field data covering Morocco's various agricultural regions and encompassing a range of soil types, climatic factors, and crop varieties had to be gathered. These experimental data sets will serve as the foundation for careful model calibration and subsequent validation, ensuring the accuracy of simulation results. In conclusion, the prospective research findings add to the global conversation on climate-resilient agricultural practices while encouraging the promotion of sustainable agricultural models in Morocco. A policy architect's and an agricultural actor's ability to make informed decisions that not only advance food security but also environmental stability may be strengthened by the impending recognition of the DNDC model as a potent simulation tool tailored to Moroccan conditions.

Keywords: greenhouse gas emissions, DNDC model, sustainable agriculture, Moroccan cropping systems

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Authors: Qian Wang, Haibo Gu

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To drive practical interpretations and applications of various policies in building the transnational education joint-ventures, middle managers learn to navigate through uncertainties and ambiguities. However, the current literature views very little about those middle managers’ experiences, perceptions, and practices. This paper takes the empirical approach and aims to uncover the middle managers’ experiences by conducting interviews, campus visits, and document analysis. Following the qualitative research method approach, the researchers gathered information from a mixture of fourteen foreign and Chinese managers. Their perceptions of the China-foreign cooperation in higher education and their perceived roles have offered important, valuable insights to this group of people’s attitudes and management performances. The diverse cultural and demographic backgrounds contributed to the significance of the study. There are four key findings. One, middle managers’ immediate micro-contexts and individual attitudes are the top two influential factors in managers’ performances. Two, the foreign middle managers showed a stronger sense of self-identity in risk-taking. Three, the Chinese middle managers preferred to see difficulties as part of their assigned responsibilities. Four, middle managers in independent universities demonstrated a stronger sense of belonging and fewer frustrations than middle managers in secondary institutes. The researchers propose that training for managers in a transnational educational setting should consider these discoveries when select fitting topics and content. In particular, middle managers should be better prepared to anticipate their everyday jobs in the micro-environment; hence, information concerning sponsor organizations’ working culture is as essential as knowing the national and local regulations, and socio-culture. Different case studies can help the managers to recognize and celebrate the diversity in transnational education. Situational stories can help them to become aware of the diverse and wide range of work contexts so that they will not feel to be left alone when facing challenges without relevant previous experience or training. Though this research is a case study based in the Chinese transnational higher education setting, the implications could be relevant and comparable to other transnational higher education situations and help to continue expanding the potential applications in this field.

Keywords: educational management, middle manager performance, transnational higher education

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Authors: M. Bilal Ishfaq, Adnan N. Qureshi

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COVID-19 is the most infectious disease these days, it was first reported in Wuhan, the capital city of Hubei in China then it spread rapidly throughout the whole world. Later on 11 March 2020, the World Health Organisation (WHO) declared it a pandemic. Since COVID-19 is highly contagious, it has affected approximately 219M people worldwide and caused 4.55M deaths. It has brought the importance of accurate diagnosis of respiratory diseases such as pneumonia and COVID-19 to the forefront. In this paper, we propose a hybrid approach for the automated detection of COVID-19 using medical imaging. We have presented the hybridization of manually extracted and convolutional features. Our approach combines Haralick texture features and convolutional features extracted from chest X-rays and CT scans. We also employ a minimum redundancy maximum relevance (MRMR) feature selection algorithm to reduce computational complexity and enhance classification performance. The proposed model is evaluated on four publicly available datasets, including Chest X-ray Pneumonia, COVID-19 Pneumonia, COVID-19 CTMaster, and VinBig data. The results demonstrate high accuracy and effectiveness, with 0.9925 on the Chest X-ray pneumonia dataset, 0.9895 on the COVID-19, Pneumonia and Normal Chest X-ray dataset, 0.9806 on the Covid CTMaster dataset, and 0.9398 on the VinBig dataset. We further evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed model using ROC curves, where the AUC for the best-performing model reaches 0.96. Our proposed model provides a promising tool for the early detection and accurate diagnosis of COVID-19, which can assist healthcare professionals in making informed treatment decisions and improving patient outcomes. The results of the proposed model are quite plausible and the system can be deployed in a clinical or research setting to assist in the diagnosis of COVID-19.

Keywords: COVID-19, feature engineering, artificial neural networks, radiology images

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Authors: Aimite Jorge, Leenekela Usebiu

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In recent years the International Community has seen a rise of what can be termed as ‘actio popularis”;that is to say lawsuits brought by third parties in the interest of the public or the world community as a whole, such as in cases of genocide and terrorism prosecutions under international law. It is equally clear that under current globalized world the effect of multinational activities on the environment is often felt beyond the borders of the territories where they operate. Equally true is the fact that the correspondence of citizens self-determination with national government is increasingly upset by the increasing willingness of states to share some ‘sovereign powers’ in order to address new economic, environmental and security interdependencies. The ‘unbundling’ of functional governance from fixed territories sees continuously citizens give up their formal approval of key decisions in exchange for a more remote, indirect say in supra-national or international decision-making bodies. The efforts to address a growing transnational flow of ecological harm are at the forefront of such indirect transformations, as evidenced by a proliferation of multilateral environmental agreements (MEAs) over the past three decades. However, unlike the defence of the global commons in cases of terrorism and genocide, there is still to be a clear application of action popularis in the case of environment, despite acknowledgement that the effect of the activities of several multinationals on the environment is as destructive to the global commons as genocide or terrorism are. Thus, this paper looking at specific cases of harmful degradation of the environment by certain multinationals transcending national boundaries, argues that it is high-time for a serious consideration of the application of the actio-popularis to environmental concerns. Although it is acknowledged that in international environmental law the challenge to reach a “critical mass” of recognition and support for an ‘actio-popularis’ for environment damage is particularly demanding, it is worth the try.

Keywords: actio popularis in environment law, global commons, transnational environmental damage, law and environment

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Authors: Iara Rezende, Djalma Silva, Alcino Costa Neto

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Considering the transformations of the contemporary world linked to globalization and climate changes caused by global warming, the environmental and energy issues have been increasingly present in the decisions of the world scenario. Thus, the aim of reducing the impacts caused by human activities there are the energy efficiency measures, which are also applicable in the scope of Civil Engineering. Considering that a large part of the energy demand from buildings is related to the need to adapt the internal environment to the users comfort and productivity, measures capable of reducing this need can minimize the climate changes impacts and also the energy consumption of the building. However, these important measures are currently little used by civil engineers, either because of the interdisciplinarity of the subject, the time required to apply certain methods or the difficult interpretation of the results obtained by computational programs that often have a complex and little applied approach. Thus, it was proposed the development of a Java application with a simpler and applied approach to evaluate the thermal performance of a building in order to obtain results capable of assisting the civil engineers in the decision making related to the users thermal comfort. The program was built in Java programming language and the method used for the evaluation was the Center Scientifique et Technique du Batiment (CSTB) method. The program was used to evaluate the thermal performance of a university classroom. The analysis was carried out from simulations considering the worst climatic situation of the building occupation. Thus, at the end of the process, the favorable result was obtained regarding the classroom comfort zone and the feasibility of using the program, thus achieving the proposed objectives.

Keywords: building occupation, CSTB method, energy efficiency measures, Java application, thermal comfort

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Authors: Ahmeda Ali, Mary Codd, Susan Brundage

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Importance: This research focuses on devising and improving Health Service Executive (HSE) policy and legislation and therefore improving patient trauma care and outcomes in Ireland. Objectives: The study measures components of the Trauma System in the district hospital setting of the Cavan/Monaghan Hospital Group (CMHG), HSE, Ireland, and uses the collected data to identify the strengths and weaknesses of the CMHG Trauma System organisation, to include governance, injury data, prevention and quality improvement, scene care and facility-based care, and rehabilitation. The information will be made available to local policy makers to provide objective situational analysis to assist in future trauma service planning and service provision. Design, setting and participants: From 28 April to May 28, 2016 a cross-sectional survey using World Health Organisation (WHO) Trauma System Assessment Tool (TSAT) was conducted among healthcare professionals directly involved in the level III trauma system of CMHG. Main outcomes: Identification of the strengths and weaknesses of the Trauma System of CMHG. Results: The participants who reported inadequate funding for pre hospital (62.3%) and facility based trauma care at CMHG (52.5%) were high. Thirty four (55.7%) respondents reported that a national trauma registry (TARN) exists but electronic health records are still not used in trauma care. Twenty one respondents (34.4%) reported that there are system wide protocols for determining patient destination and adequate, comprehensive legislation governing the use of ambulances was enforced, however, there is a lack of a reliable advisory service. Over 40% of the respondents reported uncertainty of the injury prevention programmes available in Ireland; as well as the allocated government funding for injury and violence prevention. Conclusions: The results of this study contributed to a comprehensive assessment of the trauma system organisation. The major findings of the study identified three fundamental areas: the inadequate funding at CMHG, the QI techniques and corrective strategies used, and the unfamiliarity of existing prevention strategies. The findings direct the need for further research to guide future development of the trauma system at CMHG (and in Ireland as a whole) in order to maximise best practice and to improve functional and life outcomes.

Keywords: trauma, education, management, system

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Authors: Kang-Hsien Li

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Along with global industries in using technology to enhance the application, make the study drawn more close to the people’s behavior and produce data analysis, extended out from the mental accounting of prospect theory, this paper provides the marketing and financial applications in the field of exploration and discussions with the future. For the foreseeable future, the payment behavior depends on the form of currency, which affects a variety of product types on the marketing of marketing strategy to provide diverse payment methods to enhance the overall sales performance. This not only affects people's consumption also affects people's investments. Credit card, PayPal, Apple pay, Bitcoin and any other with advances in technology and other emerging payment instruments, began to affect people for the value and the concept of money. Such as the planning of national social welfare policies, monetary and financial regulators and regulators. The expansion can be expected to discuss marketing and finance-related mental problems at the same time, recent studies reflect two different ideas, the first idea is that individuals affected by situational frames, not broad impact at the event level, affected by the people basically mental, second idea is that when an individual event affects a broader range, and majority of people will choose the same at the time that the rational choice. That are applied to practical application of marketing, at the same time provide an explanation in the financial market under the anomalies, due to the financial markets has varied investment products and different market participants, that also highlights these two points. It would provide in-depth description of humanity's mental. Certainly, about discuss mental accounting aspects, while artificial intelligence application development, although people would be able to reduce prejudice decisions, that will also lead to more discussion on the economic and marketing strategy.

Keywords: mental accounting, behavior economics, consumer behaviors, decision-making

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Authors: Amani Waheed, Adel Mishriky, Rasha Farouk, Essam Abdallah, Sarah Hussein

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Background: Occupational stress plays a crucial role in professional drivers' health. They are exposed to high workloads, low physical activity, high demand and low decisions as well as poor lifestyle factors including poor diet, sedentary work, and smoking. Dyslipidemia is a well-established modifiable cardiovascular risk factor. Occupational stress and other forms of chronic stress have been associated with raised levels of atherogenic lipids. Although stress management has some evidence in improving lipid profile, the association between occupational stress and dyslipidemia is not clear. Objectives: To assess the relational between occupational stress and lipid profile among professional drivers. Methodology: A cross-sectional study conducted at a large company in Ismailia City, Egypt, where, 131 professional drivers divided into 44 car drivers, 43 bus drivers, and 44 truck drivers were eligible after applying exclusion criteria. Occupational stress index (OSI), non-occupational risk factors of dyslipidemia were assessed using interview structured questionnaire. Blood pressure, body mass index (BMI) and lipid profile were measured. Results: The mean of total OSI score was 79.98 ± 6.14. The total OSI score is highest among truck drivers (82.16 ± 4.62), then bus drivers (80.26 ± 6.02) and lowest among car drivers (77.55 ± 6.79) with statistically significant. Eighty percent had Dyslipidemia. The duration of driving hours per day, exposure to passive smoking and increased BMI were the risk factors. No statistical significance between Total OSI score and dyslipidemia. Using, logistic regression analysis, occupational stress, duration of driving hours per day, and BMI were positive significant predictors for dyslipidemia. Conclusion: Professional drivers are exposed to occupational stress. A high proportion of drivers have dyslipidemia. Total OSI score doesn't have statistically significant relation with dyslipidemia.

Keywords: body mass index, dyslipidaemia, occupational stress, professional drivers

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Authors: Hayder H. Kareem, Shunqi Pan

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The geological environment where the groundwater is collected represents the most important element that affects the behaviour of groundwater aquifer. As groundwater is a worldwide vital resource, it requires knowing the parameters that affect this source accurately so that the conceptualized mathematical models would be acceptable to the broadest ranges. Therefore, groundwater models have recently become an effective and efficient tool to investigate groundwater aquifer behaviours. Groundwater aquifer may contain aquitards, aquicludes, or interfaces within its geological formations. Aquitards and aquicludes have geological formations that forced the modellers to include those formations within the conceptualized groundwater models, while interfaces are commonly neglected from the conceptualization process because the modellers believe that the interface has no effect on aquifer behaviour. The current research highlights the impact of an interface existing in a real unconfined groundwater aquifer called Dibdibba, located in Al-Najaf City, Iraq where it has a river called the Euphrates River that passes through the eastern part of this city. Dibdibba groundwater aquifer consists of two types of soil layers separated by an interface soil layer. A groundwater model is built for Al-Najaf City to explore the impact of this interface. Calibration process is done using PEST 'Parameter ESTimation' approach and the best Dibdibba groundwater model is obtained. When the soil interface is conceptualized, results show that the groundwater tables are significantly affected by that interface through appearing dry areas of 56.24 km² and 6.16 km² in the upper and lower layers of the aquifer, respectively. The Euphrates River will also leak water into the groundwater aquifer of 7359 m³/day. While these results are changed when the soil interface is neglected where the dry area became 0.16 km², the Euphrates River leakage became 6334 m³/day. In addition, the conceptualized models (with and without interface) reveal different responses for the change in the recharge rates applied on the aquifer through the uncertainty analysis test. The aquifer of Dibdibba in Al-Najaf City shows a slight deficit in the amount of water supplied by the current pumping scheme and also notices that the Euphrates River suffers from stresses applied to the aquifer. Ultimately, this study shows a crucial need to represent the interface soil layer in model conceptualization to be the intended and future predicted behaviours more reliable for consideration purposes.

Keywords: Al-Najaf City, groundwater aquifer behaviour, groundwater modelling, interface soil layer, Visual MODFLOW

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Authors: Manar Al-Ateeq

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The building construction industry plays a major role in the economy of the word and the state of Kuwait. This paper evaluates existing new civil site engineers, describes a new system for improvement and insures the importance of prequalifying and developing for new engineers. In order to have a strong base in engineering, educational institutes and workplaces should be responsible to continuously train engineers and update them with new methods and techniques in engineering. As to achieve that, school of engineering should constantly update computational resources to be used in the professions. A survey was prepared for graduated Engineers based on stated objectives to understand the status of graduate engineers in both the public and private sector. Interviews were made with different sectors in Kuwait, and several visits were made to different training centers within different workplaces in Kuwait to evaluate training process and try to improve it. Virtual Reality (VR) technology could be applied as a complement to three-dimensional (3D) modeling, leading to better communication whether in job training, in education or in professional practice. Techniques of 3D modeling and VR can be applied to develop the models related to the construction process. The 3D models can support rehabilitation design as it can be considered as a great tool for monitoring failure and defaults in structures; also it can support decisions based on the visual analyses of alternative solutions. Therefore, teaching computer-aided design (CAD) and VR techniques in school will help engineering students in order to prepare them to site work and also will assist them to consider these technologies as important supports in their later professional practice. This teaching technique will show how the construction works developed, allow the visual simulation of progression of each type of work and help them to know more about the necessary equipment needed for tasks and how it works on site.

Keywords: three dimensional modeling (3DM), civil engineers (CE), professional practice (PP), virtual reality (VR)

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Authors: Farshid Marbouti, Jale Ulas, Julia Thompson

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The main sources of stress among college students are: changes in sleeping and eating habits, undertaking new responsibilities, and financial difficulties as the most common sources of stress, exams, meeting new people, career decisions, fear of failure, and pressure from parents, transition to university especially if it requires leaving home, working with people that they do not know, trouble with parents, and relationship with the opposite sex. The students use a variety of stress coping strategies, including talking to family and friends, leisure activities and exercising. The Yerkes–Dodson law indicates while a moderate amount of stress may be beneficial for performance, too high stress will result in weak performance. In other words, if students are too stressed, they are likely to have low academic performance. In a preliminary study conducted in 2017 with engineering students enrolled in three high failure rate classes, the majority of the students stated that they have high levels of stress mainly for academic, financial, or family-related reasons. As the second stage of the study, the main purpose of this research is to investigate the students’ level of stress, sources of stress, their relationship with student demographic background, students’ coping strategies, and academic performance. A device is being developed to gather data from students breathing patterns and measure their stress levels. In addition, all participants are asked to fill out a survey. The survey under development has the following categories: exam stressor, study-related stressors, financial pressures, transition to university, family-related stress, student response to stress, and stress management. After the data collection, Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) analysis will be conducted in order to identify the relationship among students’ level of stress, coping strategies, and academic performance.

Keywords: college student stress, coping strategies, academic performance, measuring stress

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Authors: Ismail Aslantas

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Value-Added Models (VAMs), the statistical methods for evaluating the effectiveness of teachers and schools based on student achievement growth, has attracted decision-makers’ and researchers’ attention over the last decades. As a result of this attention, many studies have conducted in recent years to discuss these statistical models from different aspects. This research focused on the importance of conceptual variables in VAM estimations; therefor, this research was undertaken to examine the extent to which value-added effectiveness estimates for teachers can be affected by using context predictions. Using longitudinal data over three years from the international school context, value-added teacher effectiveness was estimated by ordinary least-square value-added models, and the effectiveness of the teachers was examined. The longitudinal dataset in this study consisted of three major sources: students’ attainment scores up to three years and their characteristics, teacher background information, and school characteristics. A total of 1,027 teachers and their 35,355 students who were in eighth grade were examined for understanding the impact of model specifications on the value-added teacher effectiveness evaluation. Models were created using selection methods that adding a predictor on each step, then removing it and adding another one on a subsequent step and evaluating changes in model fit was checked by reviewing changes in R² values. Cohen’s effect size statistics were also employed in order to find out the degree of the relationship between teacher characteristics and their effectiveness. Overall, the results indicated that prior attainment score is the most powerful predictor of the current attainment score. 47.1 percent of the variation in grade 8 math score can be explained by the prior attainment score in grade 7. The research findings raise issues to be considered in VAM implementations for teacher evaluations and make suggestions to researchers and practitioners.

Keywords: model specification, teacher effectiveness, teacher performance evaluation, value-added model

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Authors: Felipe Riveros, Ricardo Alvarez, Claudia Rahmann, Rodrigo Moreno

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Around the world, many countries have committed to a decarbonization of their electricity system. Under this global drive, converter-interfaced generators (CIG) such as wind and photovoltaic generation appear as cornerstones to achieve these energy targets. Despite its benefits, an increasing use of CIG brings several technical challenges in power systems, especially from a stability viewpoint. Among the key differences are limited short circuit current capacity, inertia-less characteristic of CIG, and response times within the electromagnetic timescale. Along with the integration of CIG into the power system, one enabling technology for the energy transition towards low-carbon power systems is battery energy storage systems (BESS). Because of the flexibility that BESS provides in power system operation, its integration allows for mitigating the variability and uncertainty of renewable energies, thus optimizing the use of existing assets and reducing operational costs. Another characteristic of BESS is that they can also support power system stability by injecting reactive power during the fault, providing short circuit currents, and delivering fast frequency response. However, most methodologies for sizing and allocating BESS in power systems are based on economic aspects and do not exploit the benefits that BESSs can offer to system stability. In this context, this paper presents a methodology for determining the optimal allocation of battery energy storage systems (BESS) in weak power systems with high levels of CIG. Unlike traditional economic approaches, this methodology incorporates stability constraints to allocate BESS, aiming to mitigate instability issues arising from weak grid conditions with low short-circuit levels. The proposed methodology offers valuable insights for power system engineers and planners seeking to maintain grid stability while harnessing the benefits of renewable energy integration. The methodology is validated in the reduced Chilean electrical system. The results show that integrating BESS into a power system with high levels of CIG with stability criteria contributes to decarbonizing and strengthening the network in a cost-effective way while sustaining system stability. This paper potentially lays the foundation for understanding the benefits of integrating BESS in electrical power systems and coordinating their placements in future converter-dominated power systems.

Keywords: battery energy storage, power system stability, system strength, weak power system

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Authors: Ana Neves, John Leander, Ignacio Gonzalez, Raid Karoumi

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Systematic monitoring and inspection are needed to assess the present state of a structure and predict its future condition. If an irregularity is noticed, repair actions may take place and the adequate intervention will most probably reduce the future costs with maintenance, minimize downtime and increase safety by avoiding the failure of the structure as a whole or of one of its structural parts. For this to be possible decisions must be made at the right time, which implies using systems that can detect abnormalities in their early stage. In this sense, Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) is seen as an effective tool for improving the safety and reliability of infrastructures. This paper explores the decision-making problem in SHM regarding the maintenance of civil engineering structures. The aim is to assess the present condition of a bridge based exclusively on measurements using the suggested method in this paper, such that action is taken coherently with the information made available by the monitoring system. Artificial Neural Networks are trained and their ability to predict structural behavior is evaluated in the light of a case study where acceleration measurements are acquired from a bridge located in Stockholm, Sweden. This relatively old bridge is presently still in operation despite experiencing obvious problems already reported in previous inspections. The prediction errors provide a measure of the accuracy of the algorithm and are subjected to further investigation, which comprises concepts like clustering analysis and statistical hypothesis testing. These enable to interpret the obtained prediction errors, draw conclusions about the state of the structure and thus support decision making regarding its maintenance.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, clustering analysis, model-free damage detection, statistical hypothesis testing, structural health monitoring

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Authors: Nyashadzashe Chiraga, Anthony Walker, Glen Bright

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The manufacturing industry is currently experiencing a paradigm shift into the Fourth Industrial Revolution in which customers are increasingly at the epicentre of production. The high degree of production customization and personalization requires a flexible manufacturing system that will rapidly respond to the dynamic and volatile changes driven by the market. They are a gap in technology that allows for the optimal flow of information and optimal manufacturing operations on the shop floor regardless of the rapid changes in the fixture and part demands. Information is the reduction of uncertainty; it gives meaning and context on the state of each cell. The amount of information needed to describe cellular manufacturing systems is investigated by two measures: the structural entropy and the operational entropy. Structural entropy is the expected amount of information needed to describe scheduled states of a manufacturing system. While operational entropy is the amount of information that describes the scheduled states of a manufacturing system, which occur during the actual manufacturing operation. Using Anylogic simulator a typical manufacturing job shop was set-up with a cellular manufacturing configuration. The cellular make-up of the configuration included; a Material handling cell, 3D Printer cell, Assembly cell, manufacturing cell and Quality control cell. The factory shop provides manufactured parts to a number of clients, and there are substantial variations in the part configurations, new part designs are continually being introduced to the system. Based on the normal expected production schedule, the schedule adherence was calculated from the structural entropy and operation entropy of varying the amounts of information communicated in simulated runs. The structural entropy denotes a system that is in control; the necessary real-time information is readily available to the decision maker at any point in time. For contractive analysis, different out of control scenarios were run, in which changes in the manufacturing environment were not effectively communicated resulting in deviations in the original predetermined schedule. The operational entropy was calculated from the actual operations. From the results obtained in the empirical study, it was seen that increasing, the efficiency of a factory communication system increases the degree of adherence of a job to the expected schedule. The performance of downstream production flow fed from the parallel upstream flow of information on the factory state was increased.

Keywords: information entropy, communication in manufacturing, mass customisation, scheduling

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Authors: Safieh Javadinejad

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In order to make well-informed decisions respecting long-term system planning, resource managers and policy creators necessitate to comprehend the interconnections among energy and water utilization and manufacture—and also the energy-water nexus. Planning and assessment issues contain the enhancement of strategies for declining the water and energy system’s vulnerabilities to climate alteration with also emissions of decreasing greenhouse gas. In order to deliver beneficial decision support for climate adjustment policy and planning, understanding the regionally-specific features of the energy-water nexus, and the history-future of the water and energy source systems serving is essential. It will be helpful for decision makers understand the nature of current water-energy system conditions and capacity for adaptation plans for future. This research shows an integrated hydrology/energy modeling platform which is able to extend water-energy examines based on a detailed illustration of local circumstances. The modeling links the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) and the Long Range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) system to create full picture of water-energy processes. This will allow water managers and policy-decision makers to simply understand links between energy system improvements and hydrological processing and realize how future climate change will effect on water-energy systems. The Zayandeh Rud river basin in Iran is selected as a case study to show the results and application of the analysis. This region is known as an area with large integration of both the electric power and water sectors. The linkages between water, energy and climate change and possible adaptation strategies are described along with early insights from applications of the integration modeling system.

Keywords: climate impacts, hydrology, water systems, adaptation planning, electricity, integrated modeling

Procedia PDF Downloads 270