Search results for: long‐term care
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 10783

Search results for: long‐term care

10633 Analysis of Epileptic Electroencephalogram Using Detrended Fluctuation and Recurrence Plots

Authors: Mrinalini Ranjan, Sudheesh Chethil

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Epilepsy is a common neurological disorder characterised by the recurrence of seizures. Electroencephalogram (EEG) signals are complex biomedical signals which exhibit nonlinear and nonstationary behavior. We use two methods 1) Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) and 2) Recurrence Plots (RP) to capture this complex behavior of EEG signals. DFA considers fluctuation from local linear trends. Scale invariance of these signals is well captured in the multifractal characterisation using detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA). Analysis of long-range correlations is vital for understanding the dynamics of EEG signals. Correlation properties in the EEG signal are quantified by the calculation of a scaling exponent. We report the existence of two scaling behaviours in the epileptic EEG signals which quantify short and long-range correlations. To illustrate this, we perform DFA on extant ictal (seizure) and interictal (seizure free) datasets of different patients in different channels. We compute the short term and long scaling exponents and report a decrease in short range scaling exponent during seizure as compared to pre-seizure and a subsequent increase during post-seizure period, while the long-term scaling exponent shows an increase during seizure activity. Our calculation of long-term scaling exponent yields a value between 0.5 and 1, thus pointing to power law behaviour of long-range temporal correlations (LRTC). We perform this analysis for multiple channels and report similar behaviour. We find an increase in the long-term scaling exponent during seizure in all channels, which we attribute to an increase in persistent LRTC during seizure. The magnitude of the scaling exponent and its distribution in different channels can help in better identification of areas in brain most affected during seizure activity. The nature of epileptic seizures varies from patient-to-patient. To illustrate this, we report an increase in long-term scaling exponent for some patients which is also complemented by the recurrence plots (RP). RP is a graph that shows the time index of recurrence of a dynamical state. We perform Recurrence Quantitative analysis (RQA) and calculate RQA parameters like diagonal length, entropy, recurrence, determinism, etc. for ictal and interictal datasets. We find that the RQA parameters increase during seizure activity, indicating a transition. We observe that RQA parameters are higher during seizure period as compared to post seizure values, whereas for some patients post seizure values exceeded those during seizure. We attribute this to varying nature of seizure in different patients indicating a different route or mechanism during the transition. Our results can help in better understanding of the characterisation of epileptic EEG signals from a nonlinear analysis.

Keywords: detrended fluctuation, epilepsy, long range correlations, recurrence plots

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10632 Frailty Patterns in the US and Implications for Long-Term Care

Authors: Joelle Fong

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Older persons are at greatest risk of becoming frail. As survival to the age of 80 and beyond continues to increase, the health and frailty of older Americans has garnered much recent attention among policy makers and healthcare administrators. This paper examines patterns in old-age frailty within a multistate actuarial model that characterizes the stochastic process of biological ageing. Using aggregate population-level U.S. mortality data, we implement a stochastic aging model to examine cohort trends and gender differences in frailty distributions for older Americans born 1865 – 1894. The stochastic ageing model, which draws from the fields of actuarial science and gerontology, is well-established in the literature. The implications for public health insurance programs are also discussed. Our results suggest that, on average, women tend to be frailer than men at older ages and reveal useful insights about the magnitude of the male-female differential at critical age points. Specifically, we note that the frailty statuses of males and females are actually quite comparable from ages 65 to 80. Beyond age 80, however, the frailty levels start to diverge considerably implying that women are moving quicker into worse states of health than men. Tracking average frailty by gender over 30 successive birth cohorts, we also find that frailty levels for both genders follow a distinct peak-and-trough pattern. For instance, frailty among 85-year old American survivors increased in years 1954-1963, decreased in years 1964-1971, and again started to increase in years 1972-1979. A number of factors may have accounted for these cohort differences including differences in cohort life histories, differences in disease prevalence, differences in lifestyle and behavior, differential access to medical advances, as well as changes in environmental risk factors over time. We conclude with a discussion on the implications of our findings on spending for long-term care programs within the broader health insurance system.

Keywords: actuarial modeling, cohort analysis, frail elderly, health

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10631 Availability and Utilization of Health Care Facilities in Jalpaiguri Town

Authors: Sharmistha Mukherjee

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Health care is the basic requirement for all. The prime question is who gets what, where and how? The unequal distribution of basic facilities do have a adverse effect on the users. The paper tries to examine health care in terms of available facilities, the health care need and how people perceive to it in a small town of Jalpaiguri in the midst of tea gardens in North Bengal. The morbidity pattern is also minutely observed with a section describing the organizational structure of health care keeping in mind the utilization.

Keywords: availability, distribution, health care, utilization

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10630 The Long-Run Effects of In-Utero Exposure to Malaria: Evidence from the Brazilian Eradication Campaign

Authors: Henrique Veras De Paiva Fonseca

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This paper investigates the long-term relationship between early life exposure to malaria and adult socioeconomic outcomes in Brazil. The identification strategy relies on exogenous variation in the risk of malaria outbreaks in different states and seasons of the year to identify early life exposure according to the timing and location of birth. Furthermore, Brazil has undergone a successful campaign of malaria eradication during the late 1950s, which allows for comparing outcomes of birth cohorts born just prior to and just after eradication to identify the extent of in utero exposure. Instrumental variables estimates find consistent negative treatment effects of in utero exposure to malaria on socioeconomic outcomes, such as educational attainment and health status. The effects are stronger for exposure during the first trimester of pregnancy than during other periods of gestation. Additionally, consistent with previous findings, men are more likely to exhibit larger long-term effects.

Keywords: malaria, exposure, eradication, instrumental variables, education, health

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10629 Sexual Health Experiences of Older Men: Health Care Professionals' Perspectives

Authors: Andriana E. Tran, Anna Chur-Hansen

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Sexual health is an important aspect of overall wellbeing. This study aimed to explore the sexual health experiences of men aged 50 years and over from the perspective of health care professional participants who were specializing in sexual health care and who consulted with older men. A total of ten interviews were conducted. Eleven themes were identified regarding men’s experiences with sexual health care as reported by participants. 1) Biologically focused: older male clients focus largely on the biological aspect of their sexual health without consideration of other factors which might affect their functioning. 2) Psychological concerns: there is an interaction between mental and sexual health but older male clients do not necessarily see this. 3) Medicalization of sexual functioning: advances in medicine that aid with erectile difficulties which consequently mean that older men tend to favor a medical solution to their sexual concerns. 4) Masculine identity: sexual health concerns are linked to older male clients’ sense of masculinity. 5) Penile functionality: most concerns that older male clients have center on their penile functionality. 6) Relationships: many male clients seek sexual help as they believe it improves relationships. Conversely, having supportive partners may mean older male clients focus less on the physicality of sex. 7) Grief and loss: men experience grief and loss – the loss of their sexual functioning, grief from loss of a long-term partner, and loss of intimacy and privacy when moving from independent living to residential care. 8) Social stigma: older male clients experience stigma around aging sexuality and sex in general. 9) Help-seeking behavior: older male clients will usually seek mechanistic solution for biological sexual concerns, such as medication used for penile dysfunction. 10) Dismissed by health care professionals: many older male clients seek specialist sexual health care without the knowledge of their doctors as they feel dismissed due to lack of expertise, lack of time, and the doctor’s personal attitudes and characteristics. Finally, 11) Lack of resources: there is a distinct lack of resources and training to understand sexuality for healthy older men. These findings may inform future research, professional training, public health campaigns and policies for sexual health in older men.

Keywords: ageing, biopsychosocial model, men's health, sexual health

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10628 The Trajectory of the Ball in Football Game

Authors: Mahdi Motahari, Mojtaba Farzaneh, Ebrahim Sepidbar

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Tracking of moving and flying targets is one of the most important issues in image processing topic. Estimating of trajectory of desired object in short-term and long-term scale is more important than tracking of moving and flying targets. In this paper, a new way of identifying and estimating of future trajectory of a moving ball in long-term scale is estimated by using synthesis and interaction of image processing algorithms including noise removal and image segmentation, Kalman filter algorithm in order to estimating of trajectory of ball in football game in short-term scale and intelligent adaptive neuro-fuzzy algorithm based on time series of traverse distance. The proposed system attain more than 96% identify accuracy by using aforesaid methods and relaying on aforesaid algorithms and data base video in format of synthesis and interaction. Although the present method has high precision, it is time consuming. By comparing this method with other methods we realize the accuracy and efficiency of that.

Keywords: tracking, signal processing, moving targets and flying, artificial intelligent systems, estimating of trajectory, Kalman filter

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10627 A Quality Improvement Project on Eye Care in the Intensive Care Unit

Authors: Julius Lenaerts, Ahmed Elsaadawy, Mohammed Bashir

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Background Sedated and paralyzed patients have an impaired blink reflex leading to ophthalmic complications such as conjunctivitis, epithelial defects, bacterial keratitis, and more. These are entirely preventable complications through regular eye care. Methods Patients at level 3 or above (intubated/paralyzed) care in the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) were reviewed between February and April. Data was pulled from Metavision and adherence was compared to Royal College of Ophthalmology (RCOphth) recommendations[4]. Using a multi-pronged approach through posters, individual teaching sessions and faculty teaching, we aimed to educate staff about eye care in the ICU. Patients were reaudited in the period July to August. Results Out of 40 patients, only 23% were assessed for eye care needs on admission compared to 77% after teaching; eye care was only delivered 59% of the time it was due, compared to 61%; 2.5% of patients had eyedrops prescribed compared to 41%. This shows an overall increase in meeting RCOphth standards. Key messages Eye care is an overlooked aspect of patient care in the ICU, associated with avoidable ocular complications. Healthcare staff need further rigorous education on the provision and importance of eye care to reduce avoidable complications.

Keywords: ICU, eye care, risk, QIP

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10626 Volatility and Stylized Facts

Authors: Kalai Lamia, Jilani Faouzi

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Measuring and controlling risk is one of the most attractive issues in finance. With the persistence of uncontrolled and erratic stocks movements, volatility is perceived as a barometer of daily fluctuations. An objective measure of this variable seems then needed to control risks and cover those that are considered the most important. Non-linear autoregressive modeling is our first evaluation approach. In particular, we test the presence of “persistence” of conditional variance and the presence of a degree of a leverage effect. In order to resolve for the problem of “asymmetry” in volatility, the retained specifications point to the importance of stocks reactions in response to news. Effects of shocks on volatility highlight also the need to study the “long term” behaviour of conditional variance of stocks returns and articulate the presence of long memory and dependence of time series in the long run. We note that the integrated fractional autoregressive model allows for representing time series that show long-term conditional variance thanks to fractional integration parameters. In order to stop at the dynamics that manage time series, a comparative study of the results of the different models will allow for better understanding volatility structure over the Tunisia stock market, with the aim of accurately predicting fluctuation risks.

Keywords: asymmetry volatility, clustering, stylised facts, leverage effect

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10625 Classification of Health Risk Factors to Predict the Risk of Falling in Older Adults

Authors: L. Lindsay, S. A. Coleman, D. Kerr, B. J. Taylor, A. Moorhead

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Cognitive decline and frailty is apparent in older adults leading to an increased likelihood of the risk of falling. Currently health care professionals have to make professional decisions regarding such risks, and hence make difficult decisions regarding the future welfare of the ageing population. This study uses health data from The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TILDA), focusing on adults over the age of 50 years, in order to analyse health risk factors and predict the likelihood of falls. This prediction is based on the use of machine learning algorithms whereby health risk factors are used as inputs to predict the likelihood of falling. Initial results show that health risk factors such as long-term health issues contribute to the number of falls. The identification of such health risk factors has the potential to inform health and social care professionals, older people and their family members in order to mitigate daily living risks.

Keywords: classification, falls, health risk factors, machine learning, older adults

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10624 Protecting the Health of Astronauts: Enhancing Occupational Health Monitoring and Surveillance for Former NASA Astronauts to Understand Long-Term Outcomes of Spaceflight-Related Exposures

Authors: Meredith Rossi, Lesley Lee, Mary Wear, Mary Van Baalen, Bradley Rhodes

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The astronaut community is unique, and may be disproportionately exposed to occupational hazards not commonly seen in other communities. The extent to which the demands of the astronaut occupation and exposure to spaceflight-related hazards affect the health of the astronaut population over the life course is not completely known. A better understanding of the individual, population, and mission impacts of astronaut occupational exposures is critical to providing clinical care, targeting occupational surveillance efforts, and planning for future space exploration. The ability to characterize the risk of latent health conditions is a significant component of this understanding. Provision of health screening services to active and former astronauts ensures individual, mission, and community health and safety. Currently, the NASA-Johnson Space Center (JSC) Flight Medicine Clinic (FMC) provides extensive medical monitoring to active astronauts throughout their careers. Upon retirement, astronauts may voluntarily return to the JSC FMC for an annual preventive exam. However, current retiree monitoring includes only selected screening tests, representing an opportunity for augmentation. The potential long-term health effects of spaceflight demand an expanded framework of testing for former astronauts. The need is two-fold: screening tests widely recommended for other aging populations are necessary to rule out conditions resulting from the natural aging process (e.g., colonoscopy, mammography); and expanded monitoring will increase NASA’s ability to better characterize conditions resulting from astronaut occupational exposures. To meet this need, NASA has begun an extensive exploration of the overall approach, cost, and policy implications of expanding the medical monitoring of former NASA astronauts under the Astronaut Occupational Health program. Increasing the breadth of monitoring services will ultimately enrich the existing evidence base of occupational health risks to astronauts. Such an expansion would therefore improve the understanding of the health of the astronaut population as a whole, and the ability to identify, mitigate, and manage such risks in preparation for deep space exploration missions.

Keywords: astronaut, long-term health, NASA, occupational health, surveillance

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10623 Power Grid Line Ampacity Forecasting Based on a Long-Short-Term Memory Neural Network

Authors: Xiang-Yao Zheng, Jen-Cheng Wang, Joe-Air Jiang

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Improving the line ampacity while using existing power grids is an important issue that electricity dispatchers are now facing. Using the information provided by the dynamic thermal rating (DTR) of transmission lines, an overhead power grid can operate safely. However, dispatchers usually lack real-time DTR information. Thus, this study proposes a long-short-term memory (LSTM)-based method, which is one of the neural network models. The LSTM-based method predicts the DTR of lines using the weather data provided by Central Weather Bureau (CWB) of Taiwan. The possible thermal bottlenecks at different locations along the line and the margin of line ampacity can be real-time determined by the proposed LSTM-based prediction method. A case study that targets the 345 kV power grid of TaiPower in Taiwan is utilized to examine the performance of the proposed method. The simulation results show that the proposed method is useful to provide the information for the smart grid application in the future.

Keywords: electricity dispatch, line ampacity prediction, dynamic thermal rating, long-short-term memory neural network, smart grid

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10622 Impact of Pharmacist-Led Care on Glycaemic Control in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes: A Randomised-Controlled Trial

Authors: Emmanuel A. David, Rebecca O. Soremekun, Roseline I. Aderemi-Williams

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Background: The complexities involved in the management of diabetes mellitus require a multi-dimensional, multi-professional collaborative and continuous care by health care providers and a substantial self-care by the patients in order to achieve desired treatment outcomes. The effect of pharmacists’ care in the management of diabetes in resource-endowed nations is well documented in literature, but randomised-controlled assessment of the impact of pharmacist-led care among patients with diabetes in resource-limited settings like Nigeria and sub-Saharan Africa countries is scarce. Objective: To evaluate the impact of Pharmacist-led care on glycaemic control in patients with uncontrolled type 2 diabetes, using a randomised-controlled study design Methods: This study employed a prospective randomised controlled design, to assess the impact of pharmacist-led care on glycaemic control of 108 poorly controlled type 2 diabetic patients. A total of 200 clinically diagnosed type 2 diabetes patients were purposively selected using fasting blood glucose ≥ 7mmol/L and tested for long term glucose control using Glycated haemoglobin measure. One hundred and eight (108) patients with ≥ 7% Glycated haemoglobin were recruited for the study and assigned unique identification numbers. They were further randomly allocated to intervention and usual care groups using computer generated random numbers, with each group containing 54 subjects. Patients in the intervention group received pharmacist-structured intervention, including education, periodic phone calls, adherence counselling, referral and 6 months follow-up, while patients in usual care group only kept clinic appointments with their physicians. Data collected at baseline and six months included socio-demographic characteristics, fasting blood glucose, Glycated haemoglobin, blood pressure, lipid profile. With an intention to treat analysis, Mann-Whitney U test was used to compared median change from baseline in the primary outcome (Glycated haemoglobin) and secondary outcomes measure, effect size was computed and proportion of patients that reached target laboratory parameter were compared in both arms. Results: All enrolled participants (108) completed the study, 54 in each study. Mean age was 51±11.75 and majority were female (68.5%). Intervention patients had significant reduction in Glycated haemoglobin (-0.75%; P<0.001; η2 = 0.144), with greater proportion attaining target laboratory parameter after 6 months of care compared to usual care group (Glycated haemoglobin: 42.6% vs 20.8%; P=0.02). Furthermore, patients who received pharmacist-led care were about 3 times more likely to have better glucose control (AOR 2.718, 95%CI: 1.143-6.461) compared to usual care group. Conclusion: Pharmacist-led care significantly improved glucose control in patients with uncontrolled type 2 diabetes mellitus and should be integrated in the routine management of diabetes patients, especially in resource-limited settings.

Keywords: glycaemic control , pharmacist-led care, randomised-controlled trial , type 2 diabetes mellitus

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10621 Sweden’s SARS-CoV-2 Mitigation Failure as a Science and Solutions Principle Case Study

Authors: Dany I. Doughan, Nizam S. Najd

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Different governments in today’s global pandemic are approaching the challenging and complex issue of mitigating the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus differently while simultaneously considering their national economic and operational bottom lines. One of the most notable successes has been Taiwan's multifaceted virus containment approach, which resulted in a substantially lower incidence rate compared to Sweden’s chief mitigation tactic of herd immunity. From a classic Swiss Cheese Model perspective, integrating more fail-safe layers of defense against the virus in Taiwan’s approach compared to Sweden’s meant that in Taiwan, the government did not have to resort to extreme measures like the national lockdown Sweden is currently contemplating. From an optimized virus spread mitigation solution development standpoint using the Solutions Principle, the Taiwanese and Swedish solutions were desirable economically by businesses that remained open and non-economically or socially by individuals who enjoyed fewer disruptions from what they considered normal before the pandemic. Out of the two, the Taiwanese approach was more feasible long-term from a workforce management and quality control perspective for healthcare facilities and their professionals who were able to provide better, longer, more attentive care to the fewer new positive COVID-19 cases. Furthermore, the Taiwanese approach was more applicable as an overall model to emulate thanks in part to its short-term and long-term multilayered approach, which allows for the kind of flexibility needed by other governments to fully or partially adapt or adopt said, model. The Swedish approach, on the other hand, ignored the biochemical nature of the virus and relied heavily on short-term personal behavioral adjustments and conduct modifications, which are not as reliable as establishing required societal norms and awareness programs. The available international data on COVID-19 cases and the published governmental approaches to control the spread of the coronavirus support a better fit into the Solutions Principle of Taiwan’s Swiss Cheese Model success story compared to Sweden’s.

Keywords: coronavirus containment and mitigation, solutions principle, Swiss Cheese Model, viral mutation

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10620 Nurses' and Patients’ Perception about Care: A Comparative Study

Authors: Evangelia Kotrotsiou, Mairy Gouva, Theodosios Paralikas, Maria Fiaka, Styliani Kotrotsiou, Maria Malliarou

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The purpose of this research is to investigate the way nurses perceive the care provided in comparison to the way patients perceive it, taking into account existing literature. As far as the sample of research is concerned, it has come from the population of nurses working in the General Hospital of Thessaloniki, St. Paul and the patients of its surgical clinic. In the present study, the sample consists of 100 nurses and 88 patients. The questionnaire used was the Caring Nurse-Patient Interactions Scale: 23-Item Version, created by Cossette et al. (2006). In the case of both patients and nurses, a high score was observed in relational care in the case of the frequency of nursing care in daily practice, as well as the satisfaction of providing nursing care. Overall, patients rated higher clinical care in the case of the frequency of nursing care in daily practice, as well as the satisfaction of the clinical care they were given. On the other hand, nurses rated higher comfort care in the case of the frequency of nursing care in everyday practice, as well as relational care in the area of the importance of nursing care in everyday practice.

Keywords: nursing care, patient needs, patient satisfaction, care giving

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10619 The Role of Structural Poverty in the Know-How and Moral Economy of Doctors in Africa: An Anthropological Perspective

Authors: Isabelle Gobatto

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Based on an anthropological approach, this paper explores the medical profession and the construction of medical practices by considering the multiform articulations between structural poverty and the production of care from a low-resource francophone West African country, Burkina Faso. This country is considered in its exemplary dimension of culturally differentiated countries of the African continent that share the same situation of structural poverty. The objective is to expose the effects of structural poverty on the ways of constructing professional knowledge and thinking about the sense of the medical profession. If doctors are trained to have the same capacities in South and West countries, which are to treat and save lives whatever the cultural contexts of the practice of medicine, the ways of investing their role and of dealing with this context of action fracture the homogenization of the medical profession. In the line of anthropology of biomedicine, this paper outlines the complex effects of structural poverty on health care, care relations, and the moral economy of doctors. The materials analyzed are based on an ethnography including two temporalities located thirty years apart (1990-1994 and 2020-2021), based on long-term observations of care practices conducted in healthcare institutions, interviews coupled with the life histories of physicians. The findings reveal that disabilities faced by doctors to deliver care are interpreted as policy gaps, but they are also considered by physicians as constitutive of the social and cultural characteristics of patients, making their capacities and incapacities in terms of accompanying caregivers in the production of care. These perceptions have effects on know-how, structured around the need to act even when diagnoses are not made so as not to see patients desert health structures if the costs of care are too high for them. But these interpretations of highly individualizing dimensions of these difficulties place part of the blame on patients for the difficulties in using learned knowledge and delivering effective care. These situations challenge the ethics of caregivers but also of ethnologists. Firstly because the interpretations of disabilities prevent caregivers from considering vulnerabilities of care as constituting a common condition shared with their patients in these health systems, affecting them in an identical way although in different places in the production of care. Correlatively, these results underline that these professional conceptions prevent the emergence of a figure of victim, which could be shared between patients and caregivers who, together, undergo working and care conditions at the limit of the acceptable. This dimension directly involves politics. Secondly, structural poverty and its effects on care challenge the ethics of the anthropologist who observes caregivers producing, without intent to arm, experiences of care marked by an ordinary violence, by not giving them the care they need. It is worth asking how anthropologists could get doctors to think in this light in west-African societies.

Keywords: Africa, care, ethics, poverty

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10618 E-Commerce Implementation to Support Customize Clothes for Obese People

Authors: Hamza Al-Hazmi, Tabrej Khan

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Obesity is today a global phenomenon that affects all countries, all types of societies regardless of age, sex, and income. The average value of the relative body mass index (BMI) has increased, which indicates an increasing obesity problem in the population. Nowadays obesity is a global problem, and mass production of clothes is standard size. People have a problem to find best-fitted clothes. The goal of the project is to develop an E-Commerce web portal as a new, innovative and customize clothing production system for obese people. This research has a long-term objective and short-term objective. The long-term objectives are (1) utilize online Web portal to improve tailors’ income, and (2) provide a free online platform to the tailors and customers in order to stitch clothes. Then, the short-term objective are (1) identify e-commerce’s requirements, (2) analyze and design the e-commerce application, and (3) build and implement the e-commerce application to Customized Clothes for Overweight people. This application can hopefully improve the tailors’ income and provide an easy way for customers to choose a fabric, apply style and provide measurement. This e-commerce application is not limited to obese or overweight people but also for other people who want to stitch cloth from tailors. MySQL and PHP we are going to use for developing the application.

Keywords: e-commerce, obesity, PHP, customize clothes

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10617 Integrated Care on Chronic Diseases in Asia-Pacific Countries

Authors: Chang Liu, Hanwen Zhang, Vikash Sharma, Don Eliseo Lucerno-Prisno III, Emmanuel Yujuico, Maulik Chokshi, Prashanthi Krishnakumar, Bach Xuan Tran, Giang Thu Vu, Kamilla Anna Pinter, Shenglan Tang

Abstract:

Background and Aims: Globally, many health systems focus on hospital-based healthcare models targeting acute care and disease treatment, which are not effective in addressing the challenges of ageing populations, chronic conditions, multi-morbidities, and increasingly unhealthy lifestyles. Recently, integrated care programs on chronic diseases have been developed, piloted, and implemented to meet such challenges. However, integrated care programs in the Asia-Pacific region vary in the levels of integration from linkage to coordination to full integration. This study aims to identify and analyze existing cases of integrated care in the Asia-Pacific region and identify the facilitators and barriers in order to improve existing cases and inform future cases. Methods: The study is a comparative study, with a combination approach of desk-based research and key informant interviews. The selected countries included in this study represent a good mix of lower-middle income countries (the Philippines, India, Vietnam, and Fiji), upper-middle income country (China), and high-income country (Singapore) in the Asia-Pacific region. Existing integrated care programs were identified through the scoping review approach. Trigger, history, general design, beneficiaries, and objectors were summarized with barriers and facilitators of integrated care based on key informant interviews. Representative case(s) in each country were selected and comprehensively analyzed through deep-dive case studies. Results: A total of 87 existing integrated care programs on chronic diseases were found in all countries, with 44 in China, 21 in Singapore, 12 in India, 5 in Vietnam, 4 in the Philippines, and 1 in Fiji. 9 representative cases of integrated care were selected for in-depth description and analysis, with 2 in China, the Philippines, and Vietnam, and 1 in Singapore, India, and Fiji. Population aging and the rising chronic disease burden have been identified as key drivers for almost all the six countries. Among the six countries, Singapore has the longest history of integrated care, followed by Fiji, the Philippines, and China, while India and Vietnam have a shorter history of integrated care. Incentives, technologies, education, and performance evaluation would be crucial for developing strategies for implementing future programs and improve already existing programs. Conclusion: Integrated care is important for addressing challenges surrounding the delivery of long-term care. To date, there is an increasing trend of integrated care programs on chronic diseases in the Asia-Pacific region, and all six countries in our study set integrated care as a direction for their health systems transformation.

Keywords: integrated healthcare, integrated care delivery, chronic diseases, Asia-Pacific region

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10616 Rapid Start-Up and Efficient Long-Term Nitritation of Low Strength Ammonium Wastewater with a Sequencing Batch Reactor Containing Immobilized Cells

Authors: Hammad Khan, Wookeun Bae

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Major concerns regarding nitritation of low-strength ammonium wastewaters include low ammonium loading rates (usually below 0.2 kg/m3-d) and uncertainty about long-term stability of the process. The purpose of this study was to test a sequencing batch reactor (SBR) filled with cell-immobilized polyethylene glycol (PEG) pellets to see if it could achieve efficient and stable nitritation under various environmental conditions. SBR was fed with synthetic ammonium wastewater of 30±2 mg-N/L and pH: 8±0.05, maintaining the dissolved oxygen concentration of 1.7±0.2 mg/L and the temperature at 30±1oC. The reaction was easily converted to partial nitrification mode within a month by feeding relatively high ammonium substrate (~100 mg-N/L) in the beginning. We observed stable nitritation over 300 days with high ammonium loading rates (as high as ~1.1 kg-N/m3-d), nitrite accumulation rates (mostly over 97%) and ammonium removal rate (mostly over 95%). DO was a major limiting substrate when the DO concentration was below ~4 mg/L and the NH4+-N concentration was above 5 mg/L, giving almost linear increase in the ammonium oxidation rate with the bulk DO increase. Low temperatures mainly affected the reaction rate, which could be compensated for by increasing the pellet volume (i.e. biomass). Our results demonstrated that an SBR filled with small cell-immobilized PEG pellets could achieve very efficient and stable nitritation of a low-strength ammonium wastewater.

Keywords: ammonium loading rate (ALR), cell-immobilization, long-term nitritation, sequencing batch reactor (SBR), sewage treatment

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10615 Possible Endocrinal and Liver Enzymes Toxicities Associated with Long Term Exposure to Benzene in Saudi Arabia

Authors: Faizah Asiri, Mohammed Fathy, Saeed Alghamdi, Nahlah Ayoub, Faisal Asiri

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Background: - The strategies for this study were based on the toxic effect of long-term inhalation of Benzene on hormones and liver enzymes and various parameters related to it. The following databases were searched: benzene, hepatotoxic, benzene metabolism, hormones, testosterone, hemotoxic, and prolonged exposure. A systematic strategy is designed to search the literature that links benzene with the multiplicity and different types of intoxication or the medical abbreviations of diseases relevant to benzene exposure. Evidence suggests that getting rid of inhaled gasoline is by exhalation. Absorbed benzene is metabolized by giving phenolic acid as well as meconic acid, followed by urinary excretion of conjugate sulfates and glucuronides. Materials and Methods :- This work was conducted in the Al-Khadra laboratory in Taif 2020/2021 and aimed to measure some of the possible endocrinal and liver toxicities associated with benzene's long-term exposure in Saudi Arabia at the station workers who are considered the most exposed category to gasoline. One hundred ten station workers were included in this study. They were divided into four patient groups according to the chronic exposure rate to benzene, one control group, and three other groups of exposures. As follows: patient Group 1 (controlled group), patient Group 2 (exposed less than 1y), patient Group 3 (exposed 1-5 y), patient Group 4 (more than 5). Each group is compared with blood sample parameters (ALT, FSH and Testosterone, TSH). Blood samples were drawn from the participants, and statistical tests were performed. Significant change (p≤0.05) was examined compared to the control group. Workers' exposure to benzene led to a significant change in hematological, hormonal, and hepatic factors compared to the control group. Results:- The results obtained a relationship between long-term exposure to benzene and a decrease in the level of testosterone and FSH hormones, including that it poses a toxic risk in the long term (p≤0.05) when compared to the control. We obtained results confirming that there is no significant coloration between years of exposure and TSH level (p≤0.05) when compared to the control. Conclusion:- We conclude that some hormones and liver enzymes are affected by chronic doses of benzene through inhalation after our study was on the group most exposed to benzene, which is gas station workers.

Keywords: toxicities, benzene, hormones, station workers

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10614 Study on Reusable, Non Adhesive Silicone Male External Catheter: Clinical Proof of Study and Quality Improvement Project

Authors: Venkata Buddharaju, Irene Mccarron, Hazel Alba

Abstract:

Introduction: Male external catheters (MECs) are commonly used to collect and drain urine. MECs are increasingly used in acute care, long-term acute care hospitals, and nursing facilities, and in other patients as an alternative to invasive urinary catheters to reduce catheter-associated urinary tract infections (CAUTI).MECs are also used to avoid the need for incontinence pads and diapers. Most of the Male External Catheters are held in place by skin adhesive, with the exception of a few, which uses a foam strap clamp around the penile shaft. The adhesive condom catheters typically stay for 24 hours or less. It is also a common practice that extra skin adhesive tape is wrapped around the condom catheter for additional security of the device. The fixed nature of the adhesive will not allow the normal skin expansion of penile size over time. The adhesive can cause skin irritation, redness, erosion, and skin damage. Acanthus condom catheter (ACC) is a patented, specially designed, stretchable silicone catheter without adhesive, adapts to the size and contour of the penis. It is held in place with a single elastic strap that wraps around the lower back and tied to the opposite catheter ring holescriss cross. It can be reused for up to 5 days on the same patient after daily cleaning and washingpotentially reducing cost. Methods: The study was conducted from September 17th to October 8th, 2020. The nursing staff was educated and trained on how to use and reuse the catheter. After identifying five (5) appropriate patients, the catheter was placed and maintained by nursing staff. The data on the ease of use, leak, and skin damage were collected and reported by nurses to the nursing education department of the hospital for analysis. Setting: RML Chicago, long-term acute care hospital, an affiliate of Loyola University Medical Center, Chicago, IL USA. Results: The data showed that the catheter was easy to apply, remove, wash and reuse, without skin problems or urine infections. One patient had used for 16 days after wash, reuse, and replacement without any urine leak or skin issues. A minimal leak was observed on two patients. Conclusion: Acanthus condom catheter was easy to use, functioned well with minimal or no leak during use and reuse. The skin was intact in all patients studied. There were no urinary tract infections in any of the studied patients.

Keywords: CAUTI, male external catheter, reusable, skin adhesive

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10613 An Ethnographic Study of Workforce Integration of Health Care Workers with Refugee Backgrounds in Ageing Citizens in Germany

Authors: A. Ham, A. Kuckert-Wostheinrich

Abstract:

Demographic changes, like the ageing population in European countries and shortage of nursing staff, the increasing number of people with severe cognitive impairment, and elderly socially isolated people raise important questions about who will provide long-term care for ageing citizens. Due to the so-called refugee crisis in 2015, some health care institutions for ageing citizens in Europe invited first generation immigrants to start a nursing career and providing them language skills, nursing training, and internships. The aim of this ethnographic research was to explore the social processes affecting workforce integration and how newcomers enact good care in ageing citizens in a German nursing home. By ethnographic fieldwork, 200 hours of participant observations, 25 in-depth interviews with immigrants and established staff, 2 focus groups with 6 immigrants, and 6 established staff members, data were analysed. The health care institution provided the newcomers a nursing program on psychogeriatric theory and nursing skills in the psychogeriatric field and professional oriented language skills. Courses of health prevention and theater plays accompanied the training. The knowledge learned in education could be applied in internships on the wards. Additionally, diversity and inclusivity courses were given to established personal for cultural awareness and sensitivity. They learned to develop a collegial attitude of respect and appreciation, regardless of gender, nationality, ethnicity, religion or belief, age sexual orientation, or disability and identity. The qualitative data has shown that social processes affected workforce integration, like organizational constraints, staff shortages, and a demanding workload. However, zooming in on the interactions between newcomers and residents, we noticed how they tinkered to enact good care by embodied caring, playing games, singing and dancing. By situational acting and practical wisdom in nursing care, the newcomers could meet the needs of ageing residents. Thus, when health care institutions open up nursing programs for newcomers with refugees’ backgrounds and focus on talent instead of shortcomings, we might as well stimulate the unknown competencies, attitudes, skills, and expertise of newcomers and create excellent nurses for excellent care.

Keywords: established staff, Germany, nursing, refugees

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10612 Conventional Four Steps Travel Demand Modeling for Kabul New City

Authors: Ahmad Mansoor Stanikzai, Yoshitaka Kajita

Abstract:

This research is a very essential towards transportation planning of Kabul New City. In this research, the travel demand of Kabul metropolitan area (Existing and Kabul New City) are evaluated for three different target years (2015, current, 2025, mid-term, 2040, long-term). The outcome of this study indicates that, though currently the vehicle volume is less the capacity of existing road networks, Kabul city is suffering from daily traffic congestions. This is mainly due to lack of transportation management, the absence of proper policies, improper public transportation system and violation of traffic rules and regulations by inhabitants. On the other hand, the observed result indicates that the current vehicle to capacity ratio (VCR) which is the most used index to judge traffic status in the city is around 0.79. This indicates the inappropriate traffic condition of the city. Moreover, by the growth of population in mid-term (2025) and long-term (2040) and in the case of no development in the road network and transportation system, the VCR value will dramatically increase to 1.40 (2025) and 2.5 (2040). This can be a critical situation for an urban area from an urban transportation perspective. Thus, by introducing high-capacity public transportation system and the development of road network in Kabul New City and integrating these links with the existing city road network, significant improvements were observed in the value of VCR.

Keywords: Afghanistan, Kabul new city, planning, policy, urban transportation

Procedia PDF Downloads 331
10611 Transient and Persistent Efficiency Estimation for Electric Grid Utilities Based on Meta-Frontier: Comparative Analysis of China and Japan

Authors: Bai-Chen Xie, Biao Li

Abstract:

With the deepening of international exchanges and investment, the international comparison of power grid firms has become the focus of regulatory authorities. Ignoring the differences in the economic environment, resource endowment, technology, and other aspects of different countries or regions may lead to efficiency bias. Based on the Meta-frontier model, this paper divides China and Japan into two groups by using the data of China and Japan from 2006 to 2020. While preserving the differences between the two countries, it analyzes and compares the efficiency of the transmission and distribution industries of the two countries. Combined with the four-component stochastic frontier model, the efficiency is divided into transient and persistent efficiency. We found that there are obvious differences between the transmission and distribution sectors in China and Japan. On the one hand, the inefficiency of the two countries is mostly caused by long-term and structural problems. The key to improve the efficiency of the two countries is to focus more on solving long-term and structural problems. On the other hand, the long-term and structural problems that cause the inefficiency of the two countries are not the same. Quality factors have different effects on the efficiency of the two countries, and this different effect is captured by the common frontier model but is offset in the overall model. Based on these findings, this paper proposes some targeted policy recommendations.

Keywords: transmission and distribution industries, transient efficiency, persistent efficiency, meta-frontier, international comparison

Procedia PDF Downloads 100
10610 Study of Deflection at Junction in the Precast on Cyclic Loading

Authors: Jongho Park, Ui-Cheol Shin, Jinwoong Choi, Sungnam Hong, Sun-Kyu Park

Abstract:

While the numerous structures built the industrialization are aging, the effort for the maintenance is concentrated in many countries. However, the traffic jam, environmental damage, and enormous maintenance cost, and etc become a problem. So, in order to solve this, the modular bridge has been studied. This bridge is the structure which utilizes and assembles the standard precast member. Through this, the substitution of the existing bridge and advantage of the easy maintenance will be achieved. However, the reliability in the long-term behavior is insufficient due to the junction part between modular precast members. Therefore, in this research, the cyclic load loading experiment was performed on the junction and deflection was analyzed by long-term service in modular slab connection. The deflection of modular slab with junction was mostly generated when initial and final test.

Keywords: modular bridge, deflection, cyclic loading, junction

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10609 Long-Term Effects of Psychosocial Interventions for Adolescents on Depression and Anxiety: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Authors: Denis Duagi, Ben Carter, Maria Farrelly, Stephen Lisk, June S. L. Brown

Abstract:

Background: Adolescence represents a distinctive phase of development, and variables linked to this developmental period could affect the efficiency of prevention and treatment for depression and anxiety, as well as the long-term prognosis. The objectives of this study were to investigate the long-term effectiveness of psychosocial interventions for adolescents on depression and anxiety symptoms and to assess the influence of different intervention parameters on the long-term effects. Methods: Searches were carried out on the 11ᵗʰ of August 2022 using five databases (Cochrane Library, Embase, Medline, PsychInfo, Web of Science), as well as trial registers. Randomized controlled trials of psychosocial interventions targeting specifically adolescents were included if they assessed outcomes at 1-year post-intervention or more. The Cochrane risk of bias-2 quality assessment tool was used. The primary outcome was depression, and studies were pooled using a standardised mean difference, with an associated 95% confidence interval, p-value, and I². The study protocol was pre-registered (CRD42022348668). Findings: A total of 57 reports (n= 46,678 participants) were included in the review. Psychosocial interventions led to small reductions in depressive symptoms, with a standardised mean difference (SMD) at 1-year of -0.08 (95%CI -0.20, -0.03, p=0.002, I²=72%), 18-months SMD=-0.12, 95% CI -0.22, -0.01, p=0.03, I²=63%) and 2-years SMD=-0.12 (95% CI -0.20, -0.03, p=0.01, I²=68%). Sub-group analyses indicated that targeted interventions produced stronger effects, particularly when delivered by trained mental health professionals (K=18, SMD=-0.24, 95% CI -0.38, -0.10, p=0.001, I²=60%). No effects were detected for anxiety at any assessment. Conclusion: Psychosocial interventions specifically targeting adolescents were shown to have small but positive effects on depression symptoms but not anxiety symptoms, which were sustained for up to 2 years. These findings highlight the potential population-level preventive effects if such psychosocial interventions become widely implemented in accessible settings such as schools.

Keywords: psychosocial, adolescent, interventions, depression, anxiety, meta-analysis, randomized controlled trial

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10608 Technology Changing Senior Care

Authors: John Kosmeh

Abstract:

Introduction – For years, senior health care and skilled nursing facilities have been plagued with the dilemma of not having the necessary tools and equipment to adequately care for senior residents in their communities. This has led to high transport rates to emergency departments and high 30-day readmission rates, costing billions of unnecessary dollars each year, as well as quality assurance issues. Our Senior care telemedicine program is designed to solve this issue. Methods – We conducted a 1-year pilot program using our technology coupled with our 24/7 telemedicine program with skilled nursing facilities in different parts of the United States. We then compared transports rates and 30-day readmission rates to previous years before the use of our program, as well as transport rates of other communities of similar size not using our program. This data was able to give us a clear and concise look at the success rate of reducing unnecessary transport and readmissions as well as cost savings. Results – A 94% reduction nationally of unnecessary out-of-facility transports, and to date, complete elimination of 30-day readmissions. Our virtual platform allowed us to instruct facility staff on the utilization of our tools and system as well as deliver treatment by our ER-trained providers. Delay waiting for PCP callbacks was eliminated. We were able to obtain lung, heart, and abdominal ultrasound imaging, 12 lead EKG, blood labs, auscultate lung and heart sounds, and collect other diagnostic tests at the bedside within minutes, providing immediate care and allowing us to treat residents within the SNF. Are virtual capabilities allowed for loved ones, family members, and others who had medical power of attorney to virtually connect with us at the time of visit, to speak directly with the medical provider, providing increased confidence in the decision to treat the resident in-house. The decline in transports and readmissions will greatly reduce governmental cost burdens, as well as fines imposed on SNF for high 30-day readmissions, reduce the cost of Medicare A readmissions, and significantly impact the number of patients visiting overcrowded ERs. Discussion – By utilizing our program, SNF can effectively reduce the number of unnecessary transports of residents, as well as create significant savings from loss of day rates, transportation costs, and high CMS fines. The cost saving is in the thousands monthly, but more importantly, these facilities can create a higher quality of life and medical care for residents by providing definitive care instantly with ER-trained personnel.

Keywords: senior care, long term care, telemedicine, technology, senior care communities

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10607 Novel Liposomal Nanocarriers For Long-term Tumor Imaging

Authors: Mohamad Ahrari, Kayvan Sadri, Mahmoud Reza Jafari

Abstract:

PEGylated liposomes have a smaller volume of distribution and decreased clearance, consequently, due to their more prolonged presence in bloodstream and maintaining their stability during this period, these liposomes can be applied for imaging tumoral sites. The purpose of this study is to develop an appropriate radiopharmaceutical agent in long-term imaging for improved diagnosis and evaluation of tumors. In this study, liposomal formulations encapsulating albumin is synthesized by solvent evaporation method along with homogenization, and their characteristics were assessed. Then these liposomes labeled by Philips method and the rate of stability of labeled liposomes in serum, and ultimately the rate of biodistribution and gamma scintigraphy in C26-colon carcinoma tumor-bearing mice, were studied. The result of the study of liposomal characteristics displayed that capable of accumulating in tumor sites based of EPR phenomenon. these liposomes also have high stability for maintaining encapsulated albumin in a long time. In the study of biodistribution of these liposomes in mice, they accumulated more in the kidney, liver, spleen, and tumor sites, which, even after clearing formulations in the bloodstream, they existed in high levels in these organs up to 96 hours. In gamma scintigraphy also, organs with high activity accumulation from early hours up to 96 hours were visible in the form of hot spots. concluded that PEGylated liposomal formulation encapsulating albumin can be labeled with In-Oxine, and obtained stabilized formulation for long-term imaging, that have more favorable conditions for the evaluation of tumors and it will cause early diagnosis of tumors.

Keywords: nano liposome, 111In-oxine, imaging, biodistribution, tumor

Procedia PDF Downloads 113
10606 Exploring the Cultural Values of Nursing Personnel Utilizing Hofstede's Cultural Dimensions

Authors: Ma Chu Jui

Abstract:

Culture plays a pivotal role in shaping societal responses to change and fostering adaptability. In the realm of healthcare provision, hospitals serve as dynamic settings molded by the cultural consciousness of healthcare professionals. This intricate interplay extends to their expectations of leadership, communication styles, and attitudes towards patient care. Recognizing the cultural inclinations of healthcare professionals becomes imperative in navigating this complex landscape. This study will utilize Hofstede's Value Survey Module 2013 (VSM 2013) as a comprehensive analytical tool. The targeted participants for this research are in-service nursing professionals with a tenure of at least three months, specifically employed in the nursing department of an Eastern hospital. This quantitative approach seeks to quantify diverse cultural tendencies among the targeted nursing professionals, elucidating not only abstract cultural concepts but also revealing their cultural inclinations across different dimensions. The study anticipates gathering between 400 to 500 responses, ensuring a robust dataset for a comprehensive analysis. The focused approach on nursing professionals within the Eastern hospital setting enhances the relevance and specificity of the cultural insights obtained. The research aims to contribute valuable knowledge to the understanding of cultural tendencies among in-service nursing personnel in the nursing department of this specific Eastern hospital. The VSM 2013 will be initially distributed to this specific group to collect responses, aiming to calculate scores on each of Hofstede's six cultural dimensions—Power Distance Index (PDI), Individualism vs. Collectivism (IDV), Uncertainty Avoidance Index (UAI), Masculinity vs. Femininity (MAS), Long-Term Orientation vs. Short-Term Normative Orientation (LTO), and Indulgence vs. Restraint (IVR). the study unveils a significant correlation between different cultural dimensions and healthcare professionals' tendencies in understanding leadership expectations through PDI, grasping behavioral patterns via IDV, acknowledging risk acceptance through UAI, and understanding their long-term and short-term behaviors through LTO. These tendencies extend to communication styles and attitudes towards patient care. These findings provide valuable insights into the nuanced interconnections between cultural factors and healthcare practices. Through a detailed analysis of the varying levels of these cultural dimensions, we gain a comprehensive understanding of the predominant inclinations among the majority of healthcare professionals. This nuanced perspective adds depth to our comprehension of how cultural values shape their approach to leadership, communication, and patient care, contributing to a more holistic understanding of the healthcare landscape. A profound comprehension of the cultural paradigms embraced by healthcare professionals holds transformative potential. Beyond a mere understanding, it acts as a catalyst for elevating the caliber of healthcare services. This heightened awareness fosters cohesive collaboration among healthcare teams, paving the way for the establishment of a unified healthcare ethos. By cultivating shared values, our study envisions a healthcare environment characterized by enhanced quality, improved teamwork, and ultimately, a more favorable and patient-centric healthcare landscape. In essence, our research underscores the critical role of cultural awareness in shaping the future of healthcare delivery.

Keywords: hofstede's cultural, cultural dimensions, cultural values in healthcare, cultural awareness in nursing

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10605 Memory Types in Hemodialysis Patients: A Study Based on Hemodialysis Duration, Zahedan, South East of Iran

Authors: B. Sabayan, A. Alidadi, S. Ebrahimi, N. M. Bakhshani

Abstract:

Neuropsychological problems are more common in hemodialysis (HD) patients than in healthy individuals. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of long term HD on memory types of HD patients. To assess the different type of memory, we used memory parts of the Persian Papers and Pencil Cognitive assessment package (PCAP) and Addenbrooke's Cognitive Examination (ACE-R). Our study included 80 HD patients of whom 39 had less than six months of HD and 41 patients and another group which had a history of HD more than six months. The population had a mean age of 51.60 years old and 27.5% of them were female. The scores of patients who have been hemodialyzed for a long time (median time of HD was up to 4 years) had lower score in anterograde, explicit, visual, recall and recognition memory (5.44±1.07, 9.49±3.472, 22.805±6.6913, 5.59±10.435, 11.02±3.190 score) than the HD patients who underwent HD for a shorter term, where the median time was 3 to 5 months (P<0.01). The regression result shows that, by increasing the HD duration, all memory types are reduced (R2=0.600, P<0.01). The present study demonstrated that HD patients who were under HD for a long time had significantly lower scores in the different types of memory. However, additional researches are needed in this area.

Keywords: hemodialysis patients, duration of hemodialysis, memory types, Zahedan

Procedia PDF Downloads 178
10604 Enhancement of Long Term Peak Demand Forecast in Peninsular Malaysia Using Hourly Load Profile

Authors: Nazaitul Idya Hamzah, Muhammad Syafiq Mazli, Maszatul Akmar Mustafa

Abstract:

The peak demand forecast is crucial to identify the future generation plant up needed in the long-term capacity planning analysis for Peninsular Malaysia as well as for the transmission and distribution network planning activities. Currently, peak demand forecast (in Mega Watt) is derived from the generation forecast by using load factor assumption. However, a forecast using this method has underperformed due to the structural changes in the economy, emerging trends and weather uncertainty. The dynamic changes of these drivers will result in many possible outcomes of peak demand for Peninsular Malaysia. This paper will look into the independent model of peak demand forecasting. The model begins with the selection of driver variables to capture long-term growth. This selection and construction of variables, which include econometric, emerging trend and energy variables, will have an impact on the peak forecast. The actual framework begins with the development of system energy and load shape forecast by using the system’s hourly data. The shape forecast represents the system shape assuming all embedded technology and use patterns to continue in the future. This is necessary to identify the movements in the peak hour or changes in the system load factor. The next step would be developing the peak forecast, which involves an iterative process to explore model structures and variables. The final step is combining the system energy, shape, and peak forecasts into the hourly system forecast then modifying it with the forecast adjustments. Forecast adjustments are among other sales forecasts for electric vehicles, solar and other adjustments. The framework will result in an hourly forecast that captures growth, peak usage and new technologies. The advantage of this approach as compared to the current methodology is that the peaks capture new technology impacts that change the load shape.

Keywords: hourly load profile, load forecasting, long term peak demand forecasting, peak demand

Procedia PDF Downloads 172