Search results for: long term investment

Authors: An-Hsu Chen

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The study intends to explore how the athletic trainings (12 hours per day, four days per week) have impacts on athlete burnout and their leisure participations. The connection between athlete burnout and leisure participation of collegiate athletes is also discussed. Athlete burnout and leisure participation questionnaire were administrated and 186 valid responses were collected. The data were analyzed with descriptive statistics, t-test, one-way ANOVA, Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient. Results suggest that athlete burnout among collegiate athletes with different specialties are significant distinct. Participants who train more days per week are more likely to participate in entertainment activities while those who have higher training hours per day tend to avoid knowledge-based activities. The research also finds there is a significant positive correlation between athlete burnout and leisure participation of collegiate athletes while sport devaluation is negatively correlated with sport activities in leisure participation. Hence, adjust and well-arrange training quality and quantity may help to avoid over-trainings. Away trainings, uploading training volumes, and group leisure activities are suggested to be arranged properly to allow athletes cope with the burnout and stress caused by long-term trainings and periodical competitions.

Keywords: emotional and physical exhaustion, leisure activities, sport devaluation, training hours

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Authors: Qurat Ul Ain Bashir

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Since the inception of Pakistan Tourism industry was not on developed level but afterwards 9/11 the tourism has declined rapidly in the country. Despite Northern areas full potential, rich historical and cultural heritage, natural beauty, museums, art galleries, hiking tracks, tourism is not getting that response in Pakistan, which it deserves. In fact Pakistan has been blessed with all the features that could make her a tourist destination. On the other side the attitude of the local people, socio-political condition, lack of facilities of international standards, media’s way of reporting about country, governments’ negligence etc has more adversely affected the international tourism than domestic tourism. From 2013 onward some developments in the said industry has been shown but that is not much encouraging. In 2017 approximately two million tourist visited Pakistan in comparison to 1.75 million in 2016. In the light of above debate the paper attempts to diagnose the causes which are not allowing the reasonable growth of tourism in Pakistan and suggests steps which must be taken to develop the industry through a large scale campaign and long term planning. The methodology about this research is quantitative with reference to description, analysis and recommendations. The material would be collected from the government publications, articles, surveys, tourist accounts, books, internet, magazines.

Keywords: tourism, terrorism, barriers, infrastructure, culture, northern areas

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Authors: Garance Liaboeuf, Mohamed Bouteldja, Antoine Martinet, Nicolas Grignard, Damien Pilet, Ali Daouadji, Alain Le Bot

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A series of in-situ tests is set up to evaluate and quantify the long-term effects of scraping operations using steel plows on the skid resistance of pavements. Three pavements are tested, and a total number of 1.800 snowplow scrapings are applied. The skid resistance of the pavements is measured periodically using two indicators on two scales: an average profile depth (macrotexture) and a longitudinal friction coefficient (microtexture). The results of these tests show a reduction in the average profile depth between 4 % and 10 %, depending on the asphalt composition. This reduction of macrotexture is correlated with the reduction of high points on surfaces due to the removal of portions of the aggregate surfaces. The longitudinal friction coefficient of pavements decreases by 4% to 10%. This reduction in microtexture is related to the polishing of the surface of the aggregate used in the pavements. These variations of skid resistance are not linear. A phenomenon of regeneration of the friction coefficient is observed for pavements composed of sand-lime aggregates after several scraping operations.

Keywords: GripTester, macrotexture, microtexture, pavement, skid resistance, snowplow, TM2, winter road maintenance

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Authors: Belhadj Fatma Zohra, Belhadj Ahmed Fouad, Chabaat Mohamed

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The properties of geotextiles can impact the long-term behavior of reinforced soils, which can lead to unexpected problems such as instability and excessive deformation. Research into the material’s rheological properties and nonlinear behavior is required to overcome this issue. This study focuses on six isotropic hyperelastic models (Neo-Hooke, Mooney-Rivlin, Ogden, Yeoh, Arruda-Boyce, and Van der Waals) commonly used to describe the behavior of PET woven geotextiles in civil engineering applications. The models are adjusted for uniaxial tension testing in the warp and weft directions based on experimental data; the Yeoh and Neo-Hooke models accurately predict the behavior of these geotextiles. The study aims to enhance an understanding of how geotextiles behave under varying loads through testing and finite element simulations. The strong correlation between experimental and simulation results can help develop hyperelastic material models for geotextiles. This framework can be beneficial for manufacturers and engineers in addressing soil-structure interaction concerns effectively in their projects.

Keywords: soil-structure interaction interface, geotextiles rheological characteristics, hyperelastic models, uniaxial tension testing, FEA modeling

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Authors: Michael Kenomore, Mohamed Hassan, Amjad Shah, Hom Dhakal

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Shale gas reservoirs have been of greater importance compared to shale oil reservoirs since 2009 and with the current nature of the oil market, understanding the technical and economic performance of shale gas reservoirs is of importance. Using the Barnett shale as a case study, an economic model was developed to quantify the effect of finding and development costs and gas prices on the basins in the Barnett shale using net present value as an evaluation parameter. A rate of return of 20% and a payback period of 60 months or less was used as the investment hurdle in the model. The Barnett was split into four basins (Strawn Basin, Ouachita Folded Belt, Forth-worth Syncline and Bend-arch Basin) with analysis conducted on each of the basin to provide a holistic outlook. The dataset consisted of only horizontal wells that started production from 2008 to at most 2015 with 1835 wells coming from the strawn basin, 137 wells from the Ouachita folded belt, 55 wells from the bend-arch basin and 724 wells from the forth-worth syncline. The data was analyzed initially on Microsoft Excel to determine the estimated ultimate recoverable (EUR). The range of EUR from each basin were loaded in the Palisade Risk software and a log normal distribution typical of Barnett shale wells was fitted to the dataset. Monte Carlo simulation was then carried out over a 1000 iterations to obtain a cumulative distribution plot showing the probabilistic distribution of EUR for each basin. From the cumulative distribution plot, the P10, P50 and P90 EUR values for each basin were used in the economic model. Gas production from an individual well with a EUR similar to the calculated EUR was chosen and rescaled to fit the calculated EUR values for each basin at the respective percentiles i.e. P10, P50 and P90. The rescaled production was entered into the economic model to determine the effect of the finding and development cost and gas price on the net present value (10% discount rate/year) as well as also determine the scenario that satisfied the proposed investment hurdle. The finding and development costs used in this paper (assumed to consist only of the drilling and completion costs) were £1 million, £2 million and £4 million while the gas price was varied from $2/MCF-$13/MCF based on Henry Hub spot prices from 2008-2015. One of the major findings in this study was that wells in the bend-arch basin were least economic, higher gas prices are needed in basins containing non-core counties and 90% of the Barnet shale wells were not economic at all finding and development costs irrespective of the gas price in all the basins. This study helps to determine the percentage of wells that are economic at different range of costs and gas prices, determine the basins that are most economic and the wells that satisfy the investment hurdle.

Keywords: shale gas, Barnett shale, unconventional gas, estimated ultimate recoverable

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Authors: Peter Shi

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Algorithmic trading is a rapidly expanding domain within quantitative finance, constituting a substantial portion of trading volumes in the US financial market. The demand for rigorous and robust mathematical theories underpinning these trading algorithms is ever-growing. In this study, the author establishes a new stock market model that integrates the Efficient Market Hypothesis and the statistical arbitrage. The model, for the first time, finds probabilistic relations between the rational price and the market price in terms of the conditional expectation. The theory consequently leads to a mathematical justification of the old market adage: buy-low and sell-high. The thresholds for “low” and “high” are precisely derived using a max-min operation on Bayes’s error. This explicit connection harmonizes the Efficient Market Hypothesis and Statistical Arbitrage, demonstrating their compatibility in explaining market dynamics. The amalgamation represents a pioneering contribution to quantitative finance. The study culminates in comprehensive numerical tests using historical market data, affirming that the “buy-low” and “sell-high” algorithm derived from this theory significantly outperforms the general market over the long term in four out of six distinct market environments.

Keywords: efficient market hypothesis, behavioral finance, Bayes' decision, algorithmic trading, risk control, stock market

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Authors: M. Saidi, I. Djefour, F. Ait Medjber, A. Melouane, A. Gacem

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The objective of this research is to study the physical and mechanical properties and durability of self-compacting mortars prepared by substituting a part of cement up to a percentage of 30% pozzolan according to different Blaine specific surface area (SSB1=7000 cm²/g and SSB=9000 cm²/g)). Order to evaluate durability, mortars were subjected to chemical attacks in various aggressive environments, a solution of a mixture of nitric acid and ammonium nitrate (HNO₃ + NH₄NO₃) and a magnesium sulfate salt solution (MgSO₄)) with a concentration of 10%, for a period of one month. This study is complemented by a comparative study of the durability of mortars elaborated with sulphate resistant cement (SRC). The results show that these mortars develop long-term, mechanical and chemical resistance better than mortars based Portland cement with 5% gypsum (CEM 1) and SRC. We found that the mass losses are lowest in mortars elaborated with pozzolanic cement (30% substitution with SSB₂) in both of chemical attack solutions (3.28% in the solution acid and 1.16% in the salt solution) and the compressive strength gains of 14.68% and 8.5% respectively in the two media. This is due to the action of pozzolan which fixes portlandite to form hydrated calcium silicate (CSH) from the hydration of tricalcic silicate (C₃S).

Keywords: aggressive environments, durability, mechanical strengths, pozzolanic cement, self-compacting mortar

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Authors: Derya Güler Aydin, Bahar Araz Takay

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Two different forms of competition theories can be distinguished: Those theories that emphasize the equilibrating forces created by competition, and those emphasizing the disequilibrating forces. This difference can be attributed, among other things, to the differences regarding the functioning of the market economy; that is to say, the basic problem here is whether competition should be understood as a static state or a dynamic process. This study aims to analyze the dynamic competition theories by K. Marx and J. A. Schumpeter and neo- Schumperians all of which focus on the dynamic role played by competition through creating disequilibria, endogenous structural change and social transformation as a distinguishing characteristic of the market system. With this aim, in the first section, after examining the static, neoclassical competition theory, both Marx‟s theory, which is based on profit rate differentials, and Schumpeter‟s theory, which is based on the notion of “creative destruction”, will be discussed. In the second section, the long-term fluctuations, based on creative gales of destruction, the concept will be examined under the framework of techno-economic paradigm. It is argued that the dynamic, even disequilibrium tendencies created by the competition process should be regarded in both understanding the working of capitalism and social transformation of the system.

Keywords: competition, techno-enomic paradigm, Schumpeter, social evolution

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Authors: Lee-Ann Foster, Wynand Malherbe, Martin Ferriera, Johan Van Vuren

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Aquatic macroinvertebrates are rarely used in wetland assessments due to their variability. However, in terms of biodiversity, these invertebrates form an important component of wetlands. The objective of this study was to compare the spatial and temporal variation of macroinvertebrate assemblages within endorheic depressions in Mpumalanga and North West Provinces of South Africa. Sampling was conducted over a period of two seasons during 2012 and 2013 at all sampling points to account for a wet and dry season. The identification of macroinvertebrate community samples resulted in 24 taxa for both provinces. Results showed similarities in the structure of communities in perennial endorheic depressions in both provinces with the exception of one or two species. Macroinvertebrates sampled in Mpumalanga depressions (locally called pans) were similar to those reported in previous studies completed in the area and most of the macroinvertebrates sampled in Mpumalanga and the North West are known to be commonly found in temporary habitats. The knowledge acquired can now be utilised to enhance the available literature on these systems. Long-term studies have to be implemented to better understand the ecological functioning of the pans in the North West Province.

Keywords: aquatic, macroinvertebrate assemblages, pans, spatial variation

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Authors: Harald Haas, Andrea Plaschke

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Many of the contemporary major conflicts on this earth could not be solved so far, they either are perpetuated, or they are reflated again and again. Efforts of purely political conflict management or -resolution aim merely at the symptoms of conflict, not its roots. These roots are, in almost every case, also psychological ones. Thus, this contribution aims to shed light on the roots of one of the best known and longest-lasting conflicts: the Palestinian-Israeli one. Methodologies used were the compilation of existing scientific resources, field research in Palestine and Israel, as well as tests conducted with the Adult Attachment Projective in Palestine and Israel. Findings show that the majority of Palestinian, as well as Israeli test participants, show a disorganised attachment pattern which, in connection with the assumption of collective traumatization, seem to be a major obstacle to a lasting and peaceful conflict-resolution between these two peoples. There appears to be no short-term solution for this conflict, especially not within the range of usual Western legislative periods. Both sides ought to be provided with a kind of 'safe haven' over a long period of time, accompanied by a framework of various arrangements of coping with trauma, building lasting and secure relationships, as well as raising and educating present and future generations of Palestinians and Israelis for peace and co-operation with each other.

Keywords: conflict-management, trauma, political psychology, attachment theory

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Authors: Edward Sarich, Jack Ryan

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In contrast to learning new vocabulary incidentally in one’s first language, foreign language vocabulary is often acquired purposefully, because a lack of natural exposure requires it to be studied in an artificial environment. It follows then that foreign language vocabulary may be more efficiently acquired if it is purpose-driven, or linked to a clear and desirable outcome. The research described in this paper relates to the early stages of what is seen as a long-term effort to measure the effectiveness of a methodology for purpose-driven foreign language vocabulary instruction, specifically by analyzing whether directed studying from high-frequency vocabulary lists leads to an improvement in Test of English for International Communication (TOEIC) scores. The research was carried out in two sections of a first-year university English composition class at a small university in Japan. The results seem to indicate that purposeful study from relevant high-frequency vocabulary lists can contribute to raising TOEIC scores and that the test preparation methodology used in this study was thought by students to be beneficial in helping them to prepare to take this high-stakes test.

Keywords: corpus vocabulary, language asssessment, second language vocabulary acquisition, TOEIC test preparation

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Authors: Georges Jabbour

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Background and aims: This two-year follow-up study explores the long-term sustainability of physical activity (PA) levels in young people with type 1 diabetes, focusing on the relationship between PA, hypoglycemia, and behavioral scores. The literature highlights the importance of PA and its health benefits, as well as the barriers to engaging in PA practices. Studies have shown that individuals with high levels of vigorous physical activity have higher fear of hypoglycemia (FOH) scores and more hypoglycemia episodes. Considering that hypoglycemia episodes are a major barrier to physical activity, and many studies reported a negative association between PA and high FOH scores, it cannot be guaranteed that those experiencing hypoglycemia over a long period will remain active. Building on that, the present work assesses whether high PA levels, despite elevated hypoglycemia risk, can be maintained over time. The study tracks PA levels at one and two years, correlating them with hypoglycemia instances and Fear of Hypoglycemia (FOH) scores. Materials and methods: A self-administered questionnaire was completed by 61 youth with T1D, and their PA was assessed. Hypoglycemia episodes, fear of hypoglycemia scores and HbA1C levels were collected. All assessments were realized at baseline (visit 0: V0), one year (V1) and two years later (V2). For the purpose of the present work, we explore the relationships between PA levels, hypoglycemia episodes, and FOH scores at each time point. We used multiple linear regression to model the mean outcomes for each exposure of interest. Results: Findings indicate no changes in total moderate to vigorous PA (MVPA) and VPA levels among visits, and HbA1c (%) was negatively correlated with the total amount of VPA per day in minutes (β= -0.44; p=0.01, β= -0.37; p=0.04, and β= -0.66; p=0.01 for V0, V1, and V2, respectively). Our linear regression model reported a significant negative correlation between VPA and FOH across the visits (β=-0.59, p=0.01; β= -0.44, p=0.01; and β= -0.34, p=0.03 for V0, V1, and V2, respectively), and HbA1c (%) was influenced by both the number of hypoglycemic episodes and FOH score at V2 (β=0.48; p=0.02 and β=0.38; p=0.03, respectively). Conclusion: The sustainability of PA levels and HbA1c (%) in young individuals with type 1 diabetes is influenced by various factors, including fear of hypoglycemia. Understanding these complex interactions is essential for developing effective interventions to promote sustained PA levels in this population. Our results underline the necessity of a multi-strategic approach to promoting active lifestyles among diabetic youths. This approach should synergize PA enhancement with vigilant glucose monitoring and effective FOH management.

Keywords: physical activity, hypoglycemia, fear of hypoglycemia, youth

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Authors: Fouzia Brihmat

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Economic planning models, which are used to build microgrids and distributed energy resources, are the current norm for expressing such confidence (DER). These models often decide both short-term DER dispatch and long-term DER investments. This research investigates the most cost-effective hybrid (photovoltaic-diesel) renewable energy system (HRES) based on Total Net Present Cost (TNPC) in an Algerian Saharan area, which has a high potential for solar irradiation and has a production capacity of 1GW/h. Lead-acid batteries have been around much longer and are easier to understand, but have limited storage capacity. Lithium-ion batteries last longer, are lighter, but generally more expensive. By combining the advantages of each chemistry, we produce cost-effective high-capacity battery banks that operate solely on AC coupling. The financial implications of this research describe the corrosion process that occurs at the interface between the active material and grid material of the positive plate of a lead-acid battery. The best cost study for the HRES is completed with the assistance of the HOMER Pro MATLAB Link. Additionally, during the course of the project's 20 years, the system is simulated for each time step. In this model, which takes into consideration decline in solar efficiency, changes in battery storage levels over time, and rises in fuel prices above the rate of inflation. The trade-off is that the model is more accurate, but it took longer to compute. As a consequence, the model is more precise, but the computation takes longer. We initially utilized the Optimizer to run the model without MultiYear in order to discover the best system architecture. The optimal system for the single-year scenario is the Danvest generator, which has 760 kW, 200 kWh of the necessary quantity of lead-acid storage, and a somewhat lower COE of $0.309/kWh. Different scenarios that account for fluctuations in the gasified biomass generator's production of electricity have been simulated, and various strategies to guarantee the balance between generation and consumption have been investigated. The technological optimization of the same system has been finished and is being reviewed in a recent paper study.

Keywords: battery, corrosion, diesel, economic planning optimization, hybrid energy system, lead-acid battery, multi-year planning, microgrid, price forecast, PV, total net present cost

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Authors: K. A. Weidenmann, M. Grigo, B. Brylka, P. Elsner, T. Böhlke

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In order to reduce fuel consumption, the weight of automobiles has to be reduced. Fiber reinforced polymers offer the potential to reach this aim because of their high stiffness to weight ratio. Additionally, the use of fiber reinforced polymers in automotive applications has to allow for an economic large-scale production. In this regard, long fiber reinforced thermoplastics made by direct processing offer both mechanical performance and processability in injection moulding and compression moulding. The work presented in this contribution deals with long glass fiber reinforced polypropylene directly processed in compression moulding (D-LFT). For the use in automotive applications both the temperature and the time dependency of the materials properties have to be investigated to fulfill performance requirements during crash or the demands of service temperatures ranging from -40 °C to 80 °C. To consider both the influence of temperature and time, quasistatic tensile tests have been carried out at different temperatures. These tests have been complemented by high speed tensile tests at different strain rates. As expected, the increase in strain rate results in an increase of the elastic modulus which correlates to an increase of the stiffness with decreasing service temperature. The results are in good accordance with results determined by dynamic mechanical analysis within the range of 0.1 to 100 Hz. The experimental results from different testing methods were grouped and interpreted by using different time temperature shift approaches. In this regard, Williams-Landel-Ferry and Arrhenius approach based on kinetics have been used. As the theoretical shift factor follows an arctan function, an empirical approach was also taken into consideration. It could be shown that this approach describes best the time and temperature superposition for glass fiber reinforced polypropylene manufactured by D-LFT processing.

Keywords: composite, dynamic mechanical analysis, long fibre reinforced thermoplastics, mechanical properties, time temperature superposition

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Authors: Khoa K. Doan

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Assessment plays an essential role in teaching and learning English as it aims to measure the learning outcomes. Designing appropriate test types and procedures for four skills, especially productive skills, is a very challenging task for teachers of English. The assessment scheme is supposed to provide precise measures and fair opportunities for students to demonstrate what they can do with their language skills. This involves content domains, measurement techniques, administrative feasibility, target populations, and potential sources of testing bias. Based on these elements, a review of end-of-term speaking tests for English-majored students at Ho Chi Minh City Open University (Viet Nam) was undertaken for the purpose of analyzing the strengths and limitations of the testing tool for the speaking assessment. It helped to identify what could be done to facilitate the process of teaching and learning in that context.

Keywords: assessment, oral tests, speaking, testing

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Authors: Liang Wang, Beste F. Yuksel, David Guy Brizan

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A computational model of affect that can distinguish between spontaneous and posed smiles with no errors on a large, popular data set using deep learning techniques is presented in this paper. A Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) classifier, a type of Recurrent Neural Network, is utilized and compared to human classification. Results showed that while human classification (mean of 0.7133) was above chance, the LSTM model was more accurate than human classification and other comparable state-of-the-art systems. Additionally, a high accuracy rate was maintained with small amounts of training videos (70 instances). The derivation of important features to further understand the success of our computational model were analyzed, and it was inferred that thousands of pairs of points within the eyes and mouth are important throughout all time segments in a smile. This suggests that distinguishing between a posed and spontaneous smile is a complex task, one which may account for the difficulty and lower accuracy of human classification compared to machine learning models.

Keywords: affective computing, affect detection, computer vision, deep learning, human-computer interaction, machine learning, posed smile detection, spontaneous smile detection

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Authors: Arash Sepehri Bonab

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Techniques to switch cells between development and differentiation, which tend to be commonly exclusive, are utilized in arrange to supply an expansive cell mass that can perform particular separated capacities required for the tissue to develop. Approaches to tissue engineering center on the have to give signals to cell populaces to advance cell multiplication and separation. Current tissue regenerative procedures depend primarily on tissue repair by transplantation of synthetic/natural inserts. In any case, restrictions on the existing procedures have expanded the request for tissue designing approaches. Tissue engineering innovation and stem cell investigation based on tissue building have made awesome advances in overcoming the issues of tissue and organ damage, useful loss, and surgical complications. Bone tissue has the capability to recover itself; in any case, surrenders of a basic estimate anticipate the bone from recovering and require extra support. The advancement of bone tissue building has been utilized to form useful options to recover the bone. This paper primarily portrays current advances in tissue engineering in different fields of bone and talks about the long-term trend of tissue designing innovation in the treatment of complex diseases.

Keywords: tissue engineering, bone, technologies, treatment

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Authors: Moon Ho Do, Sin-Hee Park, Jae Hyuk Lee, Kyo Hee Cho, Jae Kyung Chae, Sun Yeou Kim

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Long-term hyperglycemic conditions associated with diabetes lead to the formation of advanced glycation end-products (AGEs). Highly reactive glucose metabolites, methylglyoxal (MGO) and glyoxal (GO), induced carbonyl stress and it may induce cellular damage, cross-linking of proteins, and glycation, playing an important role in the impairment of kidney function. Small molecules that have the ability to inhibit AGE formation, and even break preformed AGEs have a beneficial impact on metabolic syndrome, diabetes, and cancer. We quantified contents of polyphenols in nuts and investigated the protective effect of nuts and polyphenols on MGO-induced cytotoxicity in porcine kidney epithelial cells (LLC-PK1). Moreover, we evaluated the inhibitory effect of AGEs formation in the presence of MGO or GO and possess the ability to break preformed AGEs. In this study, we confirmed twenty polyphenols in diverse nuts using LC-MS/MS system. Nuts and polyphenols play a protective role in LLC-PK1 cells by reducing MGO-induced cytotoxicity. They could also prevent the formation of MGO or GO-mediated AGEs and Break AGEs crosslink. It can be surmised that increased consumption of nuts would be an effective means of preventing diabetic diseases.

Keywords: advanced glycation end products, LLC-PK1, methylglyoxal, nut, polyphenol

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Authors: Adam Pitluk

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In a time period populated by legacy newspaper readers who throw around the term “fake news” as though it has long been a part of the lexicon, journalism schools must convince would-be students that their degree is still viable and that they are not teaching a curriculum of deception. As such, journalism schools’ academic administrators tasked with creating and maintaining conversant curricula must stay ahead of legacy newspaper industry trends – both in the print and online products – and ensure that what is being taught in the classroom is both fresh and appropriate to the demands of the evolving legacy newspaper industry. This study examines the information obtained from the result of interviews of journalism academic administrators in order to identify institutional pedagogy for recent journalism school graduates interested in pursuing careers at legacy newspapers. This research also explores the existing relationship between journalism school academic administrators and legacy newspaper editors. The results indicate the value administrators put on various academy teachings, and they also highlight a perceived disconnect between journalism academic administrators and legacy newspaper hiring editors.

Keywords: academic administration, education, journalism, journalism school graduates, media management, newspapers, grounded theory

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Authors: Ameen Alshugaa, Abul Mansur Masih

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This paper sheds light on the economic impacts of political uncertainty caused by the civil uprisings that swept the Arab World and have been collectively known as the Arab Spring. Measuring documented effects of political uncertainty on regional stock market indices, we examine the impact of the Arab Spring on the volatility of stock markets in eight countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region: Egypt, Lebanon, Jordon, United Arab Emirate, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman and Kuwait. This analysis also permits testing the existence of financial contagion among equity markets in the MENA region during the Arab Spring. To capture the time-varying and multi-horizon nature of the evidence of volatility and contagion in the eight MENA stock markets, we apply two robust methodologies on consecutive data from November 2008 to March 2014: MGARCH-DCC, Continuous Wavelet Transforms (CWT). Our results indicate two key findings. First, the discrepancies between volatile stock markets of countries directly impacted by the Arab Spring and countries that were not directly impacted indicate that international investors may still enjoy portfolio diversification and investment in MENA markets. Second, the lack of financial contagion during the Arab Spring suggests that there is little evidence of cointegration among MENA markets. Providing a general analysis of the economic situation and the investment climate in the MENA region during and after the Arab Spring, this study bear significant importance for policy makers, local and international investors, and market regulators.

Keywords: Portfolio Diversification , MENA Region , Stock Market Indices, MGARCH-DCC, Wavelet Analysis, CWT

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Authors: Claudineia Brazil, Elison Eduardo Jardim Bierhals, Luciane Teresa Salvi, Rafael Haag

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Renewable energy sources are dependent on climatic variability, so for adequate energy planning, observations of the meteorological variables are required, preferably representing long-period series. Despite the scientific and technological advances that meteorological measurement systems have undergone in the last decades, there is still a considerable lack of meteorological observations that form series of long periods. The reanalysis is a system of assimilation of data prepared using general atmospheric circulation models, based on the combination of data collected at surface stations, ocean buoys, satellites and radiosondes, allowing the production of long period data, for a wide gamma. The third generation of reanalysis data emerged in 2010, among them is the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) developed by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), these data have a spatial resolution of 0.50 x 0.50. In order to overcome these difficulties, it aims to evaluate the performance of solar radiation estimation through alternative data bases, such as data from Reanalysis and from meteorological satellites that satisfactorily meet the absence of observations of solar radiation at global and/or regional level. The results of the analysis of the solar radiation data indicated that the reanalysis data of the CFSR model presented a good performance in relation to the observed data, with determination coefficient around 0.90. Therefore, it is concluded that these data have the potential to be used as an alternative source in locations with no seasons or long series of solar radiation, important for the evaluation of solar energy potential.

Keywords: climate, reanalysis, renewable energy, solar radiation

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Authors: Abderrazek Ben Maatoug, Ibrahim Fatnassi, Wassim Ben Ayed

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In this paper we investigate the issue of market risk quantification for Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Islamic market equity. We use Value-at-Risk (VaR) as a measure of potential risk in Islamic stock market, for long and short position, based on Riskmetrics model and the conditional parametric ARCH class model volatility with normal, student and skewed student distribution. The sample consist of daily data for the 2006-2014 of 11 Islamic stock markets indices. We conduct Kupiec and Engle and Manganelli tests to evaluate the performance for each model. The main finding of our empirical results show that (i) the superior performance of VaR models based on the Student and skewed Student distribution, for the significance level of α=1% , for all Islamic stock market indices, and for both long and short trading positions (ii) Risk Metrics model, and VaR model based on conditional volatility with normal distribution provides the best accurate VaR estimations for both long and short trading positions for a significance level of α=5%.

Keywords: value-at-risk, risk management, islamic finance, GARCH models

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Authors: Volkan Altintas, Burcu Oksuz

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Tourism industry essentially requires effective crisis management and crisis communication skills, as it is extremely vulnerable to crises. In terms of destinations, tourism crises cause dramatic decreases in the number of inbound tourists, impairment in the destination’s image, and decline in the level of preferability of the destination not only in the short but also in the long term. Therefore, any destination should be well prepared for crisis situation that may arise for various reasons. Currently, the advancement in communication technologies enables and facilitates information and experience to spread rapidly, and negative information and experiences tend to be shared to a further extent. Destinations are broadly exposed to the impacts of such communication stream. Turkey is almost continuously exposed to crises and their adverse impacts as a tourism destination, and thus requires effective crisis communication activities to be maintained. Hence, the approaches of tourism managers toward crisis communication and their proposals for addressing issues in question are important. This study intends to set forth the considerations of the managers serving in the tourism industry about crisis communication at destinations. The theoretical part of the study describes and explains crisis management and crisis communication at destinations; following which are provided the outcomes of the thorough in-depth interviews and discussions conducted for the establishment of the considerations of tourism managers. Managers indicated the role and importance of crisis communications in destinations.

Keywords: crisis communication, crisis management, destination, tourism managers

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Authors: Bahram Fathi, Karim Alizadeh, Azam Mohammadbagheri

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The aim of this paper is to investigate the role of oil price shocks in explaining business cycles in Iran using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium approach. This model incorporates both productivity and oil revenue shocks. The results indicate that productivity shocks are relatively more important to business cycles than oil shocks. The model with two shocks produces different values for volatility, but these values have the same ranking as that of the actual data for most variables. In addition, the actual data are close to the ratio of standard deviations to the output obtained from the model with two shocks. The results indicate that productivity shocks are relatively more important to business cycles than the oil shocks. The model with only a productivity shock produces the most similar figures in term of volatility magnitude to that of the actual data. Next, we use the Impulse Response Functions (IRF) to evaluate the capability of the model. The IRF shows no effect of an oil shock on the capital stocks and on labor hours, which is a feature of the model. When the log-linearized system of equations is solved numerically, investment and labor hours were not found to be functions of the oil shock. This research recommends using different techniques to compare the model’s robustness. One method by which to do this is to have all decision variables as a function of the oil shock by inducing the stationary to the model differently. Another method is to impose a bond adjustment cost. This study intends to fill that gap. To achieve this objective, we derive a DSGE model that allows for the world oil price and productivity shocks. Second, we calibrate the model to the Iran economy. Next, we compare the moments from the theoretical model with both single and multiple shocks with that obtained from the actual data to see the extent to which business cycles in Iran can be explained by total oil revenue shock. Then, we use an impulse response function to evaluate the role of world oil price shocks. Finally, I present implications of the findings and interpretations in accordance with economic theory.

Keywords: oil price, shocks, dynamic stochastic general equilibrium, Iran

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Authors: Laerte Pereira da Silva Júnior, Maria Manuel Borges

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Institutional Repositories (IR) are complex constructs that depend on political, cultural and technological aspects. Because IRs are a mirror of the organization's intellectual production, their main function is to make that production available worldwide, and also to consider its long term preservation. To this end, there is a need to define clearly the digital preservation policies supported by political decisions. There are several guidelines about the definition of digital preservation policies focusing in different themes from preservation planning to rights and restriction management, sustainability planning, etc., but this work aims to verify the implementation of digital preservation policies on the Institutional Repositories of the Federal Universities of Brazil. The methodology used was to check the information available on the websites of the IRs selected against two fields of the OpenDOAR, policies and OpenDOAR ID, to verify the existence of digital preservation policies. For this purpose a sample of the 21 of the 25 IRs registered at the Directory of Open Access Repositories (DOAR) was used, which is about 1/3 rd of the total of the brazilian universities. The 4 IRs that presented no information by the OpenDOAR team were desconsidered. The main conclusion is that most of the IRs of these universities have no polices clearly stated or no policies at all, and that there is a need to include these concerns at the top level management of IRs. The number of initiatives in digital preservation policies around the world stress the need of awareness of its importance in Brazil and requires measures to raise this awareness.

Keywords: Brazil, digital preservation policies, institutional repositories, openDOAR

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Authors: Kais Siala, Mohamed Kharrat, Mohamed Abid

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Exposure therapies encourage patients to gradually begin facing their painful memories of the trauma in order to reduce fear and anxiety. In this context, virtual reality techniques are widely used for treatment of different kinds of phobia. The particular case of fear of death phobia (thanataphobia) is addressed in this paper. For this purpose, we propose to make a simulation of Near Death Experience (NDE) using augmented reality techniques. We propose in particular to simulate the Out-of-Body experience (OBE) which is the first step of a Near-Death-Experience (NDE). In this paper, we present technical aspects of this simulation as well as short-term impact in terms of physiological measures. The non-linear Poincéré plot is used to describe the difference in Heart Rate Variability between In-Body and Out-Of-Body conditions.

Keywords: Out-of-Body simulation, physiological measure, augmented reality, phobia psychotherapy, HRV, Poincaré plot

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Authors: Louise Fitzgerald, John Allman

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Introduction: Having previously engaged in a meditation-based programme (MBP) for staff in general practice, we explore the evidence and extent to which MBPs are employed in the workplace. Aim of the study: We aim to understand the current workplace MBP intervention literature, which will help inform the suitability of these interventions within the workplace domain. Objectives: Uptake of MBPs in the workplace has grown as organizations look to support employee health, wellbeing, and performance. We will discuss the current MBP literature, including the large variability across MBPs and the associated difficulties in evaluating their efficacy. Learning points: 1) MBPs have a positive impact on cognitive function including concentration and memory and as such job performance. MBPs appear to have a positive impact on objective and subjective job satisfaction, productivity, motivation and work engagement. Meditation in the workplace may have positive impacts on mental health issues - including stress reduction and depression. 2) From our review MBPs appear to be implementable in a wide range of professions and work contexts - regardless of individual factors. Given many companies are focusing on health and wellbeing of employees, this could be included in employee wellbeing programmes. 3) Despite the benefits of mindfulness and meditation interventions in psychosocial workplace health and work performance the long-term efficacy has yet to be fully determined.

Keywords: meditation-based programmes, mindfulness, meditation, well-being

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Authors: Ziwei Huang

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In order to promote Inventory development in Shenzhen, the market-oriented real estate development mode has occupied a dominant position in the urban renewal activities of Shenzhen. This research is based on the theory of role relationship and urban regime, taking the Mutoulong community as the research object. Carries on the case depth analysis found that: Under the situation of absence and dislocation of the government's role, land property rights disputes and lack of communication platforms is the main reason for the problems of nail households and market failures, and the long-term delay in the progress of old city reconstruction. Through the analysis of the cause of the transformation problem and the upper planning and interest coordination mechanism, the optimization strategy of the old city transformation is finally proposed as follows: the establishment of interest coordination platform, the risk assessment of the government's intervention in the preliminary construction of the land, the adaptive construction of laws and regulations, and the re-examination of the interest relationship between the government and the market.

Keywords: Shenzhen city, Mutoulong community, urban regeneration, urban regime theory, role relationship theory

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Authors: Agus Masrukhin

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This research aims to find and analyze the model of character building in the Police Headquarters in Bali with a case study of Muslim members in improving the quality of the morality of its members. The formation of patterns of thinking, behavior, mentality, and police officers noble character, later can be used as a solution to reduce the hedonistic nature of the challenges in the era of globalization. The benefit of this study is expected to be a positive recommendation to find a constructive character building models of police officers in the Republic of Indonesia, especially Bali Police. For the long term, the discovery of the character building models can be developed for the entire police force in Indonesia. The type of research that would apply in this study researchers mix the qualitative research methods based on the narrative between the subject and the concrete experience of field research and quantitative research methods with 92 respondents from the police regional police Bali. This research used a descriptive analysis and SWOT analysis then it is presented in the FGD (focus group discussion). The results of this research indicate that the variable modeling the leadership of the police and variable police offices culture have significant influence on the implementation of spiritual development.

Keywords: positive constructive, hedonistic, character models, morality

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Authors: Said Yousif Khairi

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Being a developing economy, imports of capital, raw materials and manufactories goods are vital for sustainable economic growth. In 2006, Libya imported LD 8 billion (US$ 6.25 billion) which composed of mainly machinery and transport equipment (49.3%), raw material (18%), and food products and live animals (13%). This represented about 10% of GDP. Thus, it is pertinent to investigate factors affecting the amount of Libyan imports. An econometric model representing the aggregate import demand for Libya was developed and estimated using the bounds test procedure, which based on an unrestricted error correction model (UECM). The data employed for the estimation was from 1970–2010. The results of the bounds test revealed that the volume of imports and its determinants namely real income, consumer price index and exchange rate are co-integrated. The findings indicate that the demand for imports is inelastic with respect to income, index price level and The exchange rate variable in the short run is statistically significant. In the long run, the income elasticity is elastic while the price elasticity and the exchange rate remains inelastic. This indicates that imports are important elements for Libyan economic growth in the long run.

Keywords: import demand, UECM, bounds test, Libya

Procedia PDF Downloads 365