Search results for: forward collision probability

Authors: Qingqing Feng, S. Thomas Ng, Frank Xu

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Energy consumption in domestic sector has been increasing rapidly in China all along these years. Confronted with environmental challenges, the international society has made a concerted effort by setting the Paris Agreement, the Sustainable Development Goals, and the New Urban Agenda. Thus it’s very important for China to put forward reasonable countermeasures to boost building energy conservation which necessitates looking into the actuality of residential energy end-use profile and its influence factors. In this study, questionnaire surveys have been conducted in Zhuhai city in China, a typical city in hot summer warm winter climate zone. The data solicited mainly include the occupancy schedule, building’s information, residents’ information, household energy uses, the type, quantity and use patterns of appliances and occupants’ satisfaction. Over 200 valid samples have been collected through face-to-face interviews. Descriptive analysis, clustering analysis, correlation analysis and sensitivity analysis were then conducted on the dataset to understand the energy end-use profile. The findings identify: 1) several typical clusters of occupancy patterns and appliances utilization patterns; 2) the top three sensitive factors influencing energy consumption; 3) the correlations between satisfaction and energy consumption. For China with many different climates zones, it’s difficult to find a silver bullet on energy conservation. The aim of this paper is to provide a theoretical basis for multi-stakeholders including policy makers, residents, and academic communities to formulate reasonable energy saving blueprints for hot and humid urban residential buildings in China.

Keywords: residential building, energy end-use profile, questionnaire survey, sustainability

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Authors: Huma Aly, Caramel Rodger, Saman Zafar

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The present study explored the role of caste system in determining and understanding various personality characteristics related to different castes. It analyzed various personality characteristics of Arains, Jutts and Sheikhs caste of Pakistan. Reasons for the emphasis on within caste marriage in relation to personality characteristics were identified. In the present study a sample of 200 unmarried students were taken from different institutes of Lahore, Pakistan. 117 students were taken from Fast University and 83 from LUMS (Lahore University of Management and Sciences) on the basis of purposive and convenience sampling. 76 Arains, 59 Sheikhs and 65 Jutts were taken. Non-probability purposive sampling, quantitative research method, big five personality scale were used. Kruskal Wallis test was used as three independent groups were taken in the study. Results revealed various personality characteristics associated with different castes namely Arain, Jutts and Sheikhs. Individuals belonging to Jutts caste were reported to be high on being talkative, findings faults, doing thorough job, being depressed, reservedness, quarrelling, reliable, tensed, deep thinker, worrying a lot, imaginative, lazy, inventive, assertive, cold aloof, preserved and rude. Arains were reported to be original, helpful, careless,relaxed, curious, enthusiastic, forgiving, quiet, trusting, moody, shy, retaining anger, routinely working, planners, nervous, playing with ideas, artistic, cooperative, easily distracted and sophisticated. Lastly, Sheikhs were reported to be energetic, disorganized, stable. This study will play a significant part in changing the traditional viewpoint of majority of elders of our society who still have immense association with the caste they belong to.

Keywords: castes, personality, Arains, Jutts, Sheikhs, Pakistan

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Authors: Mohammad Saif

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In the post-Westphalianworld order, the concept of sovereignty has been a fundamental area of inquiry in Political Science, International Relations, and International Law. Modern Islamic political thought has also dedicated a fair share of debate on the subject. The debate fundamentally revolves around the ‘ontological differentiation’ between western and Islamic political thought. While the centrality of the individual in western political thought regards the individual as the center of universe, Islamic Political thought provides that space to God. The modern liberal democratic principles suggest sovereignty as one of the major attributes of modern nation state; Islamists regard sovereignty as an attribute of God. However, the position regarding God’ssovereignty in Islamic political thought is not coherent in conception. Some scholars regard such a position as ‘the political interpretation of Islam’. This paper is an attempt to first analyze the fundamental discord between two rival political ideologies (western and Islamic), and then forward a debate on the subject of sovereignty in South Asian Islamic Political thought, particularly between Syed Abul Ala Maududi (ideological father of modern islamist movements) andHifzurrahmanSeoharvi (lesser known in Academia but highly influential in shaping Deobandi position of principles related to political nature of Islamic theology). Maududi regardssovereignty as an attribute of God and the rulers as subservient to Gods will, Seoharvi suggests that God's sovereignty does not entail that the caliph or amir cannot be a ruler or hakim, nor can his command or hukum be an order. Certain references have also been made to contemporary scholars like Sayidd Qutub, Rashid al Ghanouchi, who in one way or the other have contributed to the debate on ‘sovereignty in Islamic thought’.

Keywords: nation state, sovereigty, sovereignty of God (Hakimmiyah), deoband

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Authors: Yunzi Chen, James Laybourne, Sarah Steven, Peter Carey, David Steel, Maria Sandinha

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Introduction: Bariatric surgery is popular with the rising incidence of obesity. Its well-known benefits include significant and rapid glycaemic control. However, cases of paradoxical worsening in diabetic retinopathy (DR) despite improved glycaemic control have been reported. Purpose: clarification on the evolution of diabetic retinopathy after bariatric surgery. Method: retrospective study of 40 patients with Type 2 diabetes who underwent bariatric surgery in a UK specialist bariatric unit between 2009 and 2011. Pre-operative and post-operative visual acuity (VA), weight, HbA1c and annual DRSS screening results were analysed. Median follow up was 50 months. Results: No significant change in VA was found during the post-operative period. 85% of patients improved HbA1c post-operatively of which 53% achieved non-diabetic HbA1c of <6.1% - despite this, 2 patients developed new DR. First post-operative screening showed 80% of patients experienced no change, 8% improved but 13% of patients developed new DR (1 case with sight-threatening maculopathy). 80% of these cases persisted up to 24 months. The proportion of patients developing new or worse DR fluctuated over time, peaking at the 3rd annual screening with 26% (15% regressed, 56% stable). The probability of developing new or worse DR postoperatively was significantly associated with a high pre-operative HbA1c (>8%) and male gender. Conclusions: bariatric surgery does not guarantee long-term improvement or prevention of DR. Asymptomatic changes in DR occurred up to 5 years postoperatively. We therefore consider it prudent to continue screening in this cohort of patients.

Keywords: bariatric surgery, diabetic retinopathy, obesity, type 2 diabetes mellitus

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Authors: A. Dinelka Panagoda, Bathiya Bandara, Chamod Wijetunga, Chathura Malinda, Lakmal Rupasinghe, Chethana Liyanapathirana

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This research takes us forward with the concepts of Federated Learning and Software-Defined Networking (SDN) to introduce an efficient malware detection technique and provide a mitigation mechanism to give birth to a resilient and automated healthcare sector network system by also adding the feature of extended privacy preservation. Due to the daily transformation of new malware attacks on hospital Integrated Clinical Environment (ICEs), the healthcare industry is at an undefinable peak of never knowing its continuity direction. The state of blindness by the array of indispensable opportunities that new medical device inventions and their connected coordination offer daily, a factor that should be focused driven is not yet entirely understood by most healthcare operators and patients. This solution has the involvement of four clients in the form of hospital networks to build up the federated learning experimentation architectural structure with different geographical participation to reach the most reasonable accuracy rate with privacy preservation. While the logistic regression with cross-entropy conveys the detection, SDN comes in handy in the second half of the research to stack up the initial development phases of the system with malware mitigation based on policy implementation. The overall evaluation sums up with a system that proves the accuracy with the added privacy. It is no longer needed to continue with traditional centralized systems that offer almost everything but not privacy.

Keywords: software-defined network, federated learning, privacy, integrated clinical environment, decentralized learning, malware detection, malware mitigation

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Authors: Krish Batra

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The advent of open banking has revolutionized the financial services industry by fostering innovation, enhancing customer experience, and promoting competition. However, this paradigm shift towards more open and interconnected banking ecosystems has introduced complex cybersecurity challenges. This research paper delves into the multifaceted cybersecurity landscape of open banking, highlighting the vulnerabilities and threats inherent in sharing financial data across a network of banks and third-party providers. Through a detailed analysis of recent data breaches, phishing attacks, and other cyber incidents, the paper assesses the current state of cybersecurity within the open banking framework. It examines the effectiveness of existing security measures, such as encryption, API security protocols, and authentication mechanisms, in protecting sensitive financial information. Furthermore, the paper explores the regulatory response to these challenges, including the implementation of standards such as PSD2 in Europe and similar initiatives globally. By identifying gaps in current cybersecurity practices, the research aims to propose a set of robust, forward-looking strategies that can enhance the security and resilience of open banking systems. This includes recommendations for banks, third-party providers, regulators, and consumers on how to mitigate risks and ensure a secure open banking environment. The ultimate goal is to provide stakeholders with a comprehensive understanding of the cybersecurity implications of open banking and to outline actionable steps for safeguarding the financial ecosystem in an increasingly interconnected world.

Keywords: open banking, financial services industry, cybersecurity challenges, data breaches, phishing attacks, encryption, API security protocols, authentication mechanisms, regulatory response, PSD2, cybersecurity practices

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Authors: Asghar Zamani, Mostafa Falahmorad

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Virtualization is established to combine and use the unique capabilities of employees to increase productivity and agility to provide services regardless of location. Adapting to fast and continuous change and getting maximum access to human resources are reasons why virtualization is happening. The distance problem is solved by information. Flexibility is the most important feature of virtualization, and information will be the main focus of virtualized companies. In this research, we used the Covid-19 opportunity window to assess the productivity of the companies that had been going through more virtualized management before the Covid-19 in comparison with those that just started planning on developing infrastructures on virtual management after the crises of pandemic occurred. The research process includes financial (profitability and customer satisfaction) and behavioral (organizational culture and reluctance to change) metrics assessment. In addition to financial and CRM KPIs, a questionnaire is devised to assess how manager and employees’ attitude has been changing towards the migration to virtualization. The sample companies and questions are selected by asking from experts in the IT industry of Iran. In this article, the conclusion is that companies open to virtualization based on accurate strategic planning or willing to pay to train their employees for virtualization before the pandemic are more agile in adapting to change and moving forward in recession. The prospective companies in this research, not only could compensate for the short period loss from the first shock of the Covid-19, but they could also foresee new needs of their customer sooner than other competitors, resulting in the need to employ new staff for executing the emerging demands. Findings were aligned with the literature review. Results can be a wake-up call for business owners especially in developing countries to be more resilient toward modern management styles instead of continuing with traditional ones.

Keywords: virtual management, virtual organization, competitive advantage, KPI, profit

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Authors: Aubry Martin, Nehed Amara, Jeff Nyalosaso, Audrey Potdevin, FrançOis ReVeret, Michel Langlet, Genevieve Chadeyron

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Energy-saving lighting devices based on LightEmitting Diodes (LEDs) combine a semiconductor chip emitting in the ultraviolet or blue wavelength region to one or more phosphor(s) deposited in the form of coatings. The most common ones combine a blue LED with the yellow phosphor Y₃Al₅O₁₂:Ce³⁺ (YAG:Ce) and a red phosphor. Even if these devices are characterized by satisfying photometric parameters (Color Rendering Index, Color Temperature) and good luminous efficiencies, further improvements can be carried out to enhance light extraction efficiency (increase in phosphor forward emission). One of the possible strategies is to pattern the phosphor coatings. Here, we have worked on different ways to nanostructure the coating surface. On the one hand, we used the colloidal lithography combined with the Langmuir-Blodgett technique to directly pattern the surface of YAG:Tb³⁺ sol-gel derived coatings, YAG:Tb³⁺ being used as phosphor model. On the other hand, we achieved composite architectures combining YAG:Ce coatings and ZnO nanowires. Structural, morphological and optical properties of both systems have been studied and compared to flat YAG coatings. In both cases, nanostructuring brought a significative enhancement of photoluminescence properties under UV or blue radiations. In particular, angle-resolved photoluminescence measurements have shown that nanostructuring modifies photons path within the coatings, with a better extraction of the guided modes. These two strategies have the advantage of being versatile and applicable to any phosphor synthesizable by sol-gel technique. They then appear as promising ways to enhancement luminescence efficiencies of both phosphor coatings and the optical devices into which they are incorporated, such as LED-based lighting or safety devices.

Keywords: phosphor coatings, nanostructuring, light extraction, ZnO nanowires, colloidal lithography, LED devices

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Authors: Alexander N. Pisarchik, Parth Chholak

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Intrinsic brain noise was estimated via magneto-encephalograms (MEG) recorded during perception of flickering visual stimuli with frequencies of 6.67 and 8.57 Hz. First, we measured the mean phase difference between the flicker signal and steady-state event-related field (SSERF) in the occipital area where the brain response at the flicker frequencies and their harmonics appeared in the power spectrum. Then, we calculated the probability distribution of the phase fluctuations in the regions of frequency locking and computed its kurtosis. Since kurtosis is a measure of the distribution’s sharpness, we suppose that inverse kurtosis is related to intrinsic brain noise. In our experiments, the kurtosis value varied among subjects from K = 3 to K = 5 for 6.67 Hz and from 2.6 to 4 for 8.57 Hz. The majority of subjects demonstrated leptokurtic kurtosis (K < 3), i.e., the distribution tails approached zero more slowly than Gaussian. In addition, we found a strong correlation between kurtosis and brain complexity measured as the correlation dimension, so that the MEGs of subjects with higher kurtosis exhibited lower complexity. The obtained results are discussed in the framework of nonlinear dynamics and complex network theories. Specifically, in a network of coupled oscillators, phase synchronization is mainly determined by two antagonistic factors, noise, and the coupling strength. While noise worsens phase synchronization, the coupling improves it. If we assume that each neuron and each synapse contribute to brain noise, the larger neuronal network should have stronger noise, and therefore phase synchronization should be worse, that results in smaller kurtosis. The described method for brain noise estimation can be useful for diagnostics of some brain pathologies associated with abnormal brain noise.

Keywords: brain, flickering, magnetoencephalography, MEG, visual perception, perception time

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Authors: Yu-Hong Lin

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Background: An adverse drug reaction (ADR) reported is an injury which caused by taking medicines. Sometimes the severity of ADR reported may be minor, but sometimes it could be a life-threatening situation. In order to provide healthcare professionals as a better reference in clinical practice, we do data collection and analysis from our hospital. Methods: This was a retrospective study of ADRs reported performed from 2014 to 2015 in our hospital in Taiwan. We collected assessment items of ADRs reported, which contain gender and age, occurring sources, Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical (ATC) classification of suspected drugs, types of adverse reactions, Naranjo score calculating by Naranjo Adverse Drug Reaction Probability Scale and so on. Results: The investigation included two hundred and seven ADRs reported. Most of ADRs reported were occurring in outpatient department (92%). The average age of ADRs reported was 65.3 years. Less than 65 years of age were in the majority in this study (54%). Majority of all ADRs reported were males (51%). According to ATC classification system, the major classification of suspected drugs was cardiovascular system (19%) and antiinfectives for systemic use (18%) respectively. Among the adverse reactions, Dermatologic Effects (35%) were the major type of ADRs. Also, the major Naranjo scores of all ADRs reported ranged from 1 to 4 points (91%), which represents a possible correlation between ADRs reported and suspected drugs. Conclusions: Definitely, ADRs reported is still an extremely important information for healthcare professionals. For that reason, we put all information of ADRs reported into our hospital's computer system, and it will improve the safety of medication use. By hospital's computer system, it can remind prescribers to think of information about patient's ADRs reported. No drugs are administered without risk. Therefore, all healthcare professionals should have a responsibility to their patients, who themselves are becoming more aware of problems associated with drug therapy.

Keywords: adverse drug reaction, Taiwan, healthcare professionals, safe use of medicines

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Authors: Anish Shah, Steve A. Wakelin, Derrick Moot, Aurélie Laugraud, Hayley J. Ridgway

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A mixed pasture system of ryegrass-clover is used in New Zealand, where clovers are generally inoculated with commercially available strains of rhizobia. The community of rhizobia living in the soil and the way in which they interact with the plant are affected by different biotic and abiotic factors. In general, bacterial richness and diversity in soil varies by soil pH. pH also affects cell physiology and acts as a master variable that controls the wider soil physiochemical conditions such as P availability, Al release and micronutrient availability. As such, pH can have both primary and secondary effects on soil biology and processes. The aim of this work was to investigate the effect of soil pH on the genetic diversity and metabolic profile of Rhizobium leguminosarum strains nodulating clover. Soils were collected from 12 farms across New Zealand which had a pH(water) range of between 4.9 and 7.5, with four acidic (pH 4.9 – 5.5), four ‘neutral’ (5.8 – 6.1) and four alkaline (6.5 – 7.5) soils. Bacteria were recovered from nodules of Trifolium repens (white clover) and T. subterraneum (subterranean clover) grown in the soils. The strains were cultured and screened against a range of pH-amended media to demonstrate whether they were adapted to pH levels similar to their native soils. The strains which showed high relative growth at a given pH (~20% of those isolated) were selected for metabolic and taxonomic profiling. The Omnilog (Biolog Inc., Hayward, CA) phenotype array was used to perform assays on carbon (C) utilisation for selected strains. DNA was extracted from the strains which had differing C utilisation profiles and PCR products for both forward and reverse primers were sequenced for the following genes: 16S rRNA, recA, nodC, nodD and nifH (symbiotic).

Keywords: bacterial diversity, clover, metabolic and taxonomic profiling, pH adaptation, rhizobia

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Authors: Mouktafi Amine, Tahiri Asmaa

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A substantial number of traditional medical research has been put forward to managing and treating mental disorders. At the present time, to our best knowledge, it is believed that a fundamental understanding of the underlying causes of the majority of psychological disorders needs to be explored further to inform early diagnosis, managing symptoms and treatment. The emerging field of evolutionary psychology is a promising prospect to address the origin of mental disorders, potentially leading to more effective treatments. Schizophrenia as a topical mental disorder has been linked to the evolutionary adaptation of the human brain represented in the brain connectivity and asymmetry directly linked to humans' higher brain cognition in contrast to other primates being our direct living representation of the structure and connectivity of our earliest common African ancestors. As proposed in the evolutionary psychology scientific literature, the pathophysiology of schizophrenia is expressed and directly linked to altered connectivity between the Hippocampal Formation (HF) and Dorsolateral Prefrontal Cortex (DLPFC). This research paper presents the results of the use of tractography analysis using multiple open access Diffusion Weighted Imaging (DWI) datasets of healthy subjects, schizophrenia-affected subjects and primates to illustrate the relevance of the aforementioned brain regions' connectivity and the underlying evolutionary changes in the human brain. Deterministic fiber tracking and streamline analysis were used to generate connectivity matrices from the DWI datasets overlaid to compute distances and highlight disconnectivity patterns in conjunction with other fiber tracking metrics: Fractional Anisotropy (FA), Mean Diffusivity (MD) and Radial Diffusivity (RD).

Keywords: tractography, diffusion weighted imaging, schizophrenia, evolutionary psychology

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Authors: Hong Geng, Zaiyu Fan

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With the acceleration of urbanization and motorization in China, the scale of cities and the travel distance of residents are constantly expanding, and the number of cars is continuously increasing, so the urban traffic problem is more and more serious. Traffic congestion, environmental pollution, energy consumption, travel safety and direct interference between traffic and other urban activities are increasingly prominent problems brought about by motorized development. This not only has a serious impact on the lives of the residents but also has a major impact on the healthy development of the city. The paper found that, in order to solve the development of motorization, a number of problems will arise; urban planning and traffic planning and design in residential planning often take into account the development of motorized traffic but neglects the demand for street life. This kind of planning has resulted in the destruction of the traditional communication space of the residential area, the pollution of noise and exhaust gas, and the potential safety risks of the residential area, which has disturbed the previously quiet and comfortable life of the residential area, resulting in the inconvenience of residents' life and the loss of street vitality. Based on these facts, this paper takes a residential area in Wuhan as the research object, through the actual investigation and research, from the perspective of micro-transformation analysis, combined with the concept of traffic micro-reconstruction governance. And research puts forward the residential traffic optimization strategies such as strengthening the interaction and connection between the residential area and the urban street system, street traffic classification and organization.

Keywords: micro-transformation, residential traffic, residents demand, traffic microcirculation

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Authors: Mohammad Talha, Abdullah Sallehhuddin Abdullah Salim, Abdul Aziz Abdul Jalil, Norzarina Md Yatim

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The significant contribution of institutional investors across the globe in socially responsible investment (SRI) is well-documented in the literature. Nevertheless, how the SRI behavior of pressure-resistant, pressure-sensitive and pressure-indeterminate institutional investors remain unexplored extensively. This study examines the moderating effect of institutional investors towards socially responsible investment behavior in the context of emerging economies. This study involved 229 institutional investors in Malaysia. A total of 1,145 questionnaires were distributed. Out of these, 308 (130 pressure sensitive institutional investors and 178 pressure resistant institutional investors), representing a usable rate of 26.9 per cent, were found fit for data analysis. Utilizing multi-group analysis via AMOS, this study found evidence for the presence of moderating effect by a type of institutional investor topology in socially responsible investment behavior. At intentional level, it established that type of institutional investor was a significant moderator in the relationship between subjective norms, and caring ethical climate with intention among pressure-resistant institutional investors, as well as between perceived behavioral controls with intention among pressure-sensitive institutional investors. At the behavioral level, the results evidenced that there was only a significant moderating effect between intention and socially responsible investment behavior among pressure-resistant institutional investors. The outcomes are expected to benefit policy makers, regulators, and market participants in order to leap forward SRI growth in developing economies. Nevertheless, the outcomes are limited to a few factors, and it is believed that future studies shall address those limitations.

Keywords: socially responsible investment, behavior, pressure sensitive investors, pressure insensitive investors, Institutional Investment Malaysia

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Authors: Eda Orhun

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Purpose: This paper analyzes a target firm’s decision to voluntarily disclose information during a takeover event and the effect of such disclosures on the outcome of the takeover. Such voluntary disclosures especially in the form of earnings forecasts made around takeover events may affect shareholders’ decisions about the target firm’s value and in return takeover result. This study aims to shed light on this question. Design/methodology/approach: The paper tries to understand the role of voluntary disclosures by target firms during a takeover event in the likelihood of takeover success both theoretically and empirically. A game-theoretical model is set up to analyze the voluntary disclosure decision of a target firm to inform the shareholders about its real worth. The empirical implication of model is tested by employing binary outcome models where the disclosure variable is obtained by identifying the target firms in the sample that provide positive news by issuing increasing management earnings forecasts. Findings: The model predicts that a voluntary disclosure of positive information by the target decreases the likelihood that the takeover succeeds. The empirical analysis confirms this prediction by showing that positive earnings forecasts by target firms during takeover events increase the probability of takeover failure. Overall, it is shown that information dissemination through voluntary disclosures by target firms is an important factor affecting takeover outcomes. Originality/Value: This study is the first to the author's knowledge that studies the impact of voluntary disclosures by the target firm during a takeover event on the likelihood of takeover success. The results contribute to information economics, corporate finance and M&As literatures.

Keywords: takeovers, target firm, voluntary disclosures, earnings forecasts, takeover success

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Authors: Luis C. Parra

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The significant wave height prediction is an issue of great interest in the field of coastal activities because of the non-linear behavior of the wave height and its complexity of prediction. This study aims to present a machine learning model to forecast the significant wave height of the oceanographic wave measuring buoys anchored at Mooloolaba of the Queensland Government Data. Modeling was performed by a multilayer perceptron neural network-genetic algorithm (GA-MLP), considering Relu(x) as the activation function of the MLPNN. The GA is in charge of optimized the MLPNN hyperparameters (learning rate, hidden layers, neurons, and activation functions) and wrapper feature selection for the window width size. Results are assessed using Mean Square Error (MSE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). The GAMLPNN algorithm was performed with a population size of thirty individuals for eight generations for the prediction optimization of 5 steps forward, obtaining a performance evaluation of 0.00104 MSE, 0.03222 RMSE, 0.02338 MAE, and 0.71163% of MAPE. The results of the analysis suggest that the MLPNNGA model is effective in predicting significant wave height in a one-step forecast with distant time windows, presenting 0.00014 MSE, 0.01180 RMSE, 0.00912 MAE, and 0.52500% of MAPE with 0.99940 of correlation factor. The GA-MLP algorithm was compared with the ARIMA forecasting model, presenting better performance criteria in all performance criteria, validating the potential of this algorithm.

Keywords: significant wave height, machine learning optimization, multilayer perceptron neural networks, evolutionary algorithms

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Authors: Guilherme Henrique Gabriel, Lucí Hidalgo Nunes

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An important feature of rainfall regimes is the variability, which is subject to the atmosphere’s general and regional dynamics, geographical position and relief. Despite being inherent to the climate system, it can harshly impact virtually all human activities. In turn, global climate change has the ability to significantly affect smaller-scale rainfall regimes by altering their current variability patterns. In this regard, it is useful to know if regional climates are changing over time and whether it is possible to link these variations to climate change trends observed globally. This study is part of an international project (Metropole-FAPESP, Proc. 2012/51876-0 and Proc. 2015/11035-5) and the objective was to identify and evaluate possible changes in rainfall behavior in the state of São Paulo, southeastern Brazil, using rainfall data from 79 rain gauges for the last forty years. Cluster analysis and gamma distribution parameters were used for evaluating spatial and temporal trends, and the outcomes are presented by means of geographic information systems tools. Results show remarkable changes in rainfall distribution patterns in São Paulo over the years: changes in shape and scale parameters of gamma distribution indicate both an increase in the irregularity of rainfall distribution and the probability of occurrence of extreme events. Additionally, the spatial outcome of cluster analysis along with the gamma distribution parameters suggest that changes occurred simultaneously over the whole area, indicating that they could be related to remote causes beyond the local and regional ones, especially in a current global climate change scenario.

Keywords: climate change, cluster analysis, gamma distribution, rainfall

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Authors: Jose Ruiz, Jose Velasquez, Holger Lovon

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Peruvian university buildings are critical structures for which very little research about its seismic vulnerability is available. This paper develops a probabilistic methodology that predicts seismic loss for university buildings with simulated fragility functions. Two university buildings located in the city of Cusco were analyzed. Fragility functions were developed considering seismic and structural parameters uncertainty. The fragility functions were generated with the Latin Hypercube technique, an improved Montecarlo-based method, which optimizes the sampling of structural parameters and provides at least 100 reliable samples for every level of seismic demand. Concrete compressive strength, maximum concrete strain and yield stress of the reinforcing steel were considered as the key structural parameters. The seismic demand is defined by synthetic records which are compatible with the elastic Peruvian design spectrum. Acceleration records are scaled based on the peak ground acceleration on rigid soil (PGA) which goes from 0.05g to 1.00g. A total of 2000 structural models were considered to account for both structural and seismic variability. These functions represent the overall building behavior because they give rational information regarding damage ratios for defined levels of seismic demand. The university buildings show an expected Mean Damage Factor of 8.80% and 19.05%, respectively, for the 0.22g-PGA scenario, which was amplified by the soil type coefficient and resulted in 0.26g-PGA. These ratios were computed considering a seismic demand related to 10% of probability of exceedance in 50 years which is a requirement in the Peruvian seismic code. These results show an acceptable seismic performance for both buildings.

Keywords: fragility functions, university buildings, loss assessment, Montecarlo simulation, latin hypercube

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Authors: O. S. Asaolu, A. Bolorunduro

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Background: Unwanted, mistimed and unintended pregnancy is an important public health issue and the most common cause of maternal mortality in developing countries. Unintended pregnancy is a potential hazard for every sexually active woman as it most times ends in unsafe abortion. The study aimed at assessing the pre-conception contraceptive use, prevalence of unintended pregnancies and the non-contraceptive factors associated with unintended pregnancy amongst currently married women in Osun state. Methodology: A descriptive cross-sectional study among randomly selected 341 currently married pregnant women attending antenatal clinics in Ilesa town of Osun state was conducted in 5 health facilities. A random selection of 5 of the 22 health facilities in the state was done. Data was collected through a self-administered questionnaire and all completed questionnaires were analyzed with SPSS. Result: About two-fifth of the currently pregnant women (40%) who has never used an FP method reported that their current pregnancy was unintended. The results indicate that age of women, age at first sex, substance use, total children ever born of children, religion, and extramarital affairs were key predictors of unintended pregnancy. Women who have higher parity are more likely to experience unintended pregnancy compared to women with lower parity (odds ratio, 0.25). Furthermore, those women who don’t engage in extra marital affairs were less likely to experience unintended pregnancy (odds ratio, 0.3) compared to those who do not. Contribution to knowledge: The predicted probability, using logistic regression, has shown that women who engage in extramarital affairs and women with high parity are more likely to have unintended pregnancy. Conclusion: Behaviour change programs should aim to reduce unintended pregnancy by focusing mostly on identified factors so that the need for abortion is decreased and the overall well-being of the family is maintained and enhanced.

Keywords: unintended pregnancy, factors, pregnant women, Nigeria

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Authors: Linnan Zhang

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Linguists, as well as psychologists, have shown great interests in implicit causality in reference processing. However, most frequently-used approaches to this issue are psychological experiments (such as eye tracking or self-paced reading, etc.). This research is a corpus-based one and is assisted with statistical tool – software R. The main focus of the present study is about the competition between verb-based implicit causality and theme structure’s influence on anaphora bias in Mandarin Chinese sentences. In Accessibility Theory, it is believed that salience, which is also known as accessibility, and relevance are two important factors in reference processing. Theme structure, which is a special syntactic structure in Chinese, determines the salience of an antecedent on the syntactic level while verb-based implicit causality is a key factor to the relevance between antecedent and anaphora. Therefore, it is a study about anaphora, combining psychology with linguistics. With analysis of the sentences from corpus as well as the statistical analysis of Multinomial Logistic Regression, major findings of the present study are as follows: 1. When the sentence is stated in a ‘cause-effect’ structure, the theme structure will always be the antecedent no matter forward biased verbs or backward biased verbs co-occur; in non-theme structure, the anaphora bias will tend to be the opposite of the verb bias; 2. When the sentence is stated in a ‘effect-cause’ structure, theme structure will not always be the antecedent and the influence of verb-based implicit causality will outweigh that of theme structure; moreover, the anaphora bias will be the same with the bias of verbs. All the results indicate that implicit causality functions conditionally and the noun in theme structure will not be the high-salience antecedent under any circumstances.

Keywords: accessibility theory, anaphora, theme strcture, verb-based implicit causality

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Authors: Narges Ebadi, Davod Ahmadi, Hiliary Monteith, Hugo Melgar-Quinonez

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Migration cannot necessarily relieve pressure on water resources in origin communities, and male out-migration can increase the water management burden of women. However, inflows of financial remittances seem to offer possibilities of investing in improving drinking-water access. Therefore, remittances may be an important pathway for migrants to support water security. This paper explores the association between water access and the receipt of remittances in households in sub-Saharan Africa. Data from round 6 of the 'Afrobarometer' surveys in 2016 were used (n= 49,137). Descriptive, bivariate and multivariate statistical analyses were carried out in this study. Regardless of country, findings from descriptive analyses showed that approximately 80% of the respondents never received remittance, and 52% had enough clean water. Only one-fifth of the respondents had piped water supply inside the house (19.9%), and approximately 25% had access to a toilet inside the house. Bivariate analyses revealed that even though receiving remittances was significantly associated with water supply, the strength of association was very weak. However, other factors such as the area of residence (rural vs. urban), cash income frequencies, electricity access, and asset ownership were strongly associated with water access. Results from unadjusted multinomial logistic regression revealed that the probability of having no access to piped water increased among remittance recipients who received financial support at least once a month (OR=1.324) (p < 0.001). In contrast, those not receiving remittances were more likely to regularly have a water access concern (OR=1.294) (p < 0.001), and not have access to a latrine (OR=1.665) (p < 0.001). In conclusion, receiving remittances is significantly related to water access as the strength of odds ratios for socio-demographic factors was stronger.

Keywords: remittances, water access, SSA, migration

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Authors: Herke Csongor

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The artificial intelligence (AI) has been used in the United States of America in the decisionmaking process of the criminal justice system for decades. In the field of law, including criminal law, AI can provide serious assistance in decision-making in many places. The paper reviews four main areas where AI still plays a role in the criminal justice system and where it is expected to play an increasingly important role. The first area is the predictive policing: a number of algorithms are used to prevent the commission of crimes (by predicting potential crime locations or perpetrators). This may include the so-called linking hot-spot analysis, crime linking and the predictive coding. The second area is the Big Data analysis: huge amounts of data sets are already opaque to human activity and therefore unprocessable. Law is one of the largest producers of digital documents (because not only decisions, but nowadays the entire document material is available digitally), and this volume can only and exclusively be handled with the help of computer programs, which the development of AI systems can have an increasing impact on. The third area is the criminal statistical data analysis. The collection of statistical data using traditional methods required enormous human resources. The AI is a huge step forward in that it can analyze the database itself, based on the requested aspects, a collection according to any aspect can be available in a few seconds, and the AI itself can analyze the database and indicate if it finds an important connection either from the point of view of crime prevention or crime detection. Finally, the use of AI during decision-making in both investigative and judicial fields is analyzed in detail. While some are skeptical about the future role of AI in decision-making, many believe that the question is not whether AI will participate in decision-making, but only when and to what extent it will transform the current decision-making system.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, international criminal cooperation, planning and organizing of the investigation, risk assessment

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Authors: Jianguo Chen, Fenggang Zang, Yu Yang, Liangang Zheng

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Reactor Pressure Vessel (RPV) is an important security barrier in nuclear power plant. Crack like defects may be produced on RPV during the whole operation lifetime due to the harsh operation condition and irradiation embrittlement. During the severe loss of coolant accident, thermal shock happened as the injection of emergency cooling water into RPV, which results in re-pressurization of the vessel and very high tension stress on the vessel wall, this event called Pressurized Thermal Shock (PTS). Crack on the vessel wall may propagate even penetrate the vessel, so the safety of the RPV would undergo great challenge. Many assumptions in structure integrity evaluation make the result of deterministic fracture mechanics very conservative, which affect the operation lifetime of the plant. Actually, many parameters in the evaluation process, such as fracture toughness and nil-ductility transition temperature, have statistical distribution characteristics. So it is necessary to assess the structural integrity of RPV subjected to PTS event by means of Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics (PFM). Structure integrity evaluation methods of RPV subjected to PTS event are summarized firstly, then evaluation method based on probabilistic fracture mechanics are presented by considering the probabilistic characteristics of material and structure parameters. A comprehensive analysis example is carried out at last. The results show that the probability of crack penetrates through wall increases gradually with the growth of fast neutron irradiation flux. The results give advice for reactor life extension.

Keywords: fracture toughness, integrity evaluation, pressurized thermal shock, probabilistic fracture mechanics, reactor pressure vessel

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Authors: Mostafa Feiz, Mohammad Safari, Hossein Hadizadeh

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The Chalpo copper area is located in northeastern Iran, which is part of the structural zone of central Iran and the back-arc basin of Sabzevar. This sedimentary basin accumulated in destructive-oligomiocene sediments is named the Nasr-Chalpo-Sangerd (NCS) basin. The sedimentary layers in this basin originated mainly from Upper Cretaceous ophiolitic rocks and intermediate to mafic-post ophiolitic volcanic rocks, deposited as a nonconformity. The mineralized sandstone layers in the Chalpo area include leached zones (with a thickness of 5 to 8 meters) and mineralized lenses with a thickness of 0.5 to 0.7 meters. Ore minerals include primary sulfide minerals, such as chalcocite, chalcopyrite, and pyrite, as well as secondary minerals, such as covellite, digenite, malachite, and azurite, formed in three stages that comprise primary, simultaneously, and supergene stage. The best agents that control the mineralization in this area include the permeability of host rocks, the presence of fault zones as the conduits for copper oxide solutions, and significant amounts of plant fossils, which create a reducing environment for the deposition of mineralized layers. The calculations of mass changes on copper-bearing layers and primary sandstone layers indicate that Pb, As, Cd, Te, and Mo are enriched in the mineralized zones, whereas SiO₂, TiO₂, Fe₂O₃, V, Sr, and Ba are depleted. The combination of geological, stratigraphic, and geochemical studies suggests that the origin of copper may have been the underlying red strata that contained hornblende, plagioclase, biotite, alkaline feldspar, and labile minerals. Dehydration and hydrolysis of these minerals during the diagenetic process caused the leaching of copper and associated elements by circling fluids, which formed an oxidant-hydrothermal solution. Copper and silver in this oxidant solution might have moved upwards through the basin-fault zones and deposited in the reducing environments in the sandstone layers that have had abundant organic matter. Copper in these solutions was probably carried by chloride complexes. The collision of oxidant and reduced solutions caused the deposition of Cu and Ag, whereas some s elements in oxidant environments (e.g., Fe₂O₃, TiO₂, SiO₂, REEs) become uns in the reduced condition. Therefore, the copper-bearing sandstones in the study area are depleted from these elements resulting from the leaching process. The results indicate that during the mineralization stage, LREEs and MREEs were depleted, but Cu, Ag, and S were enriched. Based on field evidence, it seems that the circulation of connate fluids in the reb-bed strata, produced by diagenetic processes, encountered to reduced facies, which formed earlier by abundant fossil-plant debris in the sandstones, is the best model for precipitating sulfide-copper minerals.

Keywords: Chalpo, Oligo-Miocene red beds, sandstone-hosted copper mineralization, mass change, LREEs and MREEs

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Authors: Sanjai Sureshkumar, Sathish G. Kumar, P. V. V. Sathyanarayana

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For e-gear drivetrain, the transmission error and the resulting variation in mesh stiffness is one of the main source of excitation in High performance Electric Vehicle. These vibrations are transferred through the shaft to the bearings and then to the e-Gear drive housing eventually radiating noise. A parametrical model developed in 1-D system simulation by optimizing the micro and macro geometry along with bearing properties and oil filtration to achieve least transmission error and high contact ratio. Histogram analysis is performed to condense the actual road load data into condensed duty cycle to find the bearing forces. The structural vibration generated by these forces will be simulated in a nonlinear solver obtaining the normal surface velocity of the housing and the results will be carried forward to Acoustic software wherein a virtual environment of the surrounding (actual testing scenario) with accurate microphone position will be maintained to predict the sound pressure level of radiated noise and directivity plot of the e-Gear Drive. Order analysis will be carried out to find the root cause of the vibration and whine noise. Broadband spectrum will be checked to find the rattle noise source. Further, with the available results, the design will be optimized, and the next loop of simulation will be performed to build a best e-Gear Drive on NVH aspect. Structural analysis will be also carried out to check the robustness of the e-Gear Drive.

Keywords: 1-D system simulation, contact ratio, e-Gear, mesh stiffness, micro and macro geometry, transmission error, radiated noise, NVH

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Authors: M. A. Mamun, M. I. Khan, M. H. Sarker, K. A. Khan, M. Shajahan

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The study was carried out to investigate on an innovative invention, Pathor Kuchi Leaf (PKL) cell, which is fueled with PKL sap of widely available plant called Bryophyllum pinnatum as an energy source for use in PKL battery to generate electricity. This battery, a primary source of electricity, has several order of magnitude longer shelf-lives than the traditional Galvanic cell battery, is still under investigation. In this regard, we have conducted some experiments using various instruments including Atomic Absorption Spectrophotometer (AAS), Ultra-Violet Visible spectrophotometer (UV-Vis), pH meter, Ampere-Volt-Ohm Meter (AVO Meter), etc. The AAS, UV-Vis, and pH-metric analysis data provided that the potential and current were produced as the Zn electrode itself acts as reductant while Cu2+ and H+ ions are behaving as the oxidant. The significant influence of secondary salt on current and potential leads to the dissociation of weak organic acids in PKL juice, and subsequent enrichment to the reactant ions by the secondary salt effects. However, the liquid junction potential was not as great as minimized with the opposite transference of organic acid anions and H+ ions as their dissimilar ionic mobilities. Moreover, the large value of the equilibrium constant (K) implies the big change in Gibbs free energy (∆G), the more electromotive force works in electron transfer during the forward electrochemical reaction which coincides with the fast reduction of the weight of zinc plate, revealed the additional electrical work in the presence of PKL sap. This easily fabricated high-performance PKL battery can show an excellent promise during the off-peak across the countryside.

Keywords: Atomic Absorption Spectrophotometer (AAS), Bryophylum Pinnatum Leaf (BPL), electricity, electrochemistry, organic acids

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Authors: Jacky Liu, Dulani Jayasuriya, Ryan Elmore

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Match fixing and anomalous sports events have increasingly threatened the integrity of professional sports, prompting concerns about existing detection methods. This study addresses prior research limitations in match fixing detection, improving the identification of potential fraudulent matches by incorporating advanced anomaly detection techniques. We develop a novel method to identify anomalous matches and player performances by examining series of matches, such as playoffs. Additionally, we investigate bettors' potential profits when avoiding anomaly matches and explore factors behind unusual player performances. Our literature review covers match fixing detection, match outcome forecasting models, and anomaly detection methods, underscoring current limitations and proposing a new sports anomaly detection method. Our findings reveal anomalous series in the 2022 NBA playoffs, with the Phoenix Suns vs Dallas Mavericks series having the lowest natural occurrence probability. We identify abnormal player performances and bettors' profits significantly decrease when post-season matches are included. This study contributes by developing a new approach to detect anomalous matches and player performances, and assisting investigators in identifying responsible parties. While we cannot conclusively establish reasons behind unusual player performances, our findings suggest factors such as team financial difficulties, executive mismanagement, and individual player contract issues.

Keywords: anomaly match detection, match fixing, match outcome forecasting, problematic players identification

Procedia PDF Downloads 80

Authors: Halilu Babaji, Adamu Buba

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The proliferation of small arms and light weapons (SALW) and its illicit trafficking in West Africa and Nigeria in particular, pose a major threat to peace, security and development in the Sub-region. The high circulation of these weapons in the region is a product of the interplay of several factors, which derives principally from the internal socio-economic and political dynamics compounded by globalization. The process of globalization has congealed both time and space making it easier for ideas, goods, persons, services, information, products and money to move across borders with fewer restrictions. And this has a negative effect in the entire region making it easier for arms, ammunition, insurgents, criminal and drugs to flow within national boundaries. The failure of public security in most parts of Nigeria has lead communities to indulge in different forms of ‘self-help ‘security measures, ranging from vigilante groups to community-owned arms stockpiling. Having lost confidence in the Nigerian state, parties to some of these conflicts have become entangled in a security dilemma. The quest to procure more arms to guarantee personal and community protection from perceived and real enemies is fuelling the ‘domestic arms race ‘. Therefore, as small arms remain-and proliferate – development is impeded. The impact of SALW on economic well being and national development in Nigeria is of vast significant. Therefore the need to collect these arms in circulation in Nigeria particularly the volatile area of North-east is of very important. This will hopefully contribute to government effort in building a free, secured and peaceful society.

Keywords: arms, development, proliferation, security

Procedia PDF Downloads 327

Authors: Bidzina Matsaberidze

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It is known that, in emergency situations, multi-attribute group decision-making (MAGDM) models are characterized by insufficient objective data and a lack of time to respond to the task. Evidence theory is an effective tool for describing such incomplete information in decision-making models when the expert and his knowledge are involved in the estimations of the MAGDM parameters. We consider an emergency decision-making model, where expert assessments on humanitarian aid from distribution centers (HADC) are represented in q-rung ortho-pair fuzzy numbers, and the data structure is described within the data body theory. Based on focal probability construction and experts’ evaluations, an objective function-distribution centers’ selection ranking index is constructed. Our approach for solving the constructed bicriteria partitioning problem consists of two phases. In the first phase, based on the covering’s matrix, we generate a matrix, the columns of which allow us to find all possible partitionings of the HADCs with the service centers. Some constraints are also taken into consideration while generating the matrix. In the second phase, based on the matrix and using our exact algorithm, we find the partitionings -allocations of the HADCs to the centers- which correspond to the Pareto-optimal solutions. For an illustration of the obtained results, a numerical example is given for the facility location-selection problem.

Keywords: emergency MAGDM, q-rung orthopair fuzzy sets, evidence theory, HADC, facility location problem, multi-objective combinatorial optimization problem, Pareto-optimal solutions

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Authors: Michael Williams

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The ability to control a flowing well is of the utmost important. During the kill phase, heavy weight kill mud is circulated around the well. While increasing bottom hole pressure near wellbore formation, the damage is increased. The addition of high density spherical objects has the potential to minimise this near wellbore damage, increase bottom hole pressure and reduce operational time to kill the well. This operational time saving is seen in the rapid deployment of high density spherical objects instead of building high density drilling fluid. The research aims to model the well kill process using a Computational Fluid Dynamics software. A model has been created as a proof of concept to analyse the flow of micron sized spherical objects in the drilling fluid. Initial results show that this new methodology of spherical objects in drilling fluid agrees with traditional stream lines seen in non-particle flow. Additional models have been created to demonstrate that areas of higher flow rate around the bit can lead to increased probability of wash out of formations but do not affect the flow of micron sized spherical objects. Interestingly, areas that experience dimensional changes such as tool joints and various BHA components do not appear at this initial stage to experience increased velocity or create areas of turbulent flow, which could lead to further borehole stability. In conclusion, the initial models of this novel well control methodology have not demonstrated any adverse flow patterns, which would conclude that this model may be viable under field conditions.

Keywords: well control, fluid mechanics, safety, environment

Procedia PDF Downloads 173