Search results for: response model

Authors: Morteza Giti

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As online shopping is becoming increasingly popular, computing customer lifetime value for better knowing the customers is also gaining more importance. Two distinct factors that can affect the value of a customer in the context of online shopping is the number of returned orders and payment method. Returned orders are those which have been shipped but not collected by the customer and are returned to the store. Payment method refers to the way that customers choose to pay for the price of the order which are usually two: Pre-pay and Cash-on-delivery. In this paper, a novel model called RFMSP is presented to calculated the customer lifetime value, taking these two parameters into account. The RFMSP model is based on the common RFM model while adding two extra parameter. The S represents the order status and the P indicates the payment method. As a case study for this model, the purchase history of customers in an online shop is used to compute the customer lifetime value over a period of twenty months.

Keywords: RFMSP model, AHP, customer lifetime value, k-means clustering, e-commerce

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Authors: Garreth Kestell, Lukah Dykes, Danielle Zerk, Kyla Trewartha, Rhianon Marshall, Elena Rudnik

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Adolescent mental health is an international priority and the impact of innovative service models must be evaluated. Secondary school-based mental health services (SBMHS) involving private general practitioners and psychologists are a model of care being trialed in South Australia. Measures of depression, anxiety, and stress are routinely collected throughout psychotherapy sessions. This research set out to quantify the impact of psychotherapy for rural adolescents in a school setting and explore the importance of session frequency. Methods: Demographics, session date and DASS21 scores from students (n=65) seen in 2016 by three psychologists working at the SBMHS were recorded. Students were aged 13-18 years (M=15.43, SD= 1.24), mostly female (F=51, M=14), attended between 1 and 23 sessions with a median of 6 sessions (MAD 5.93) in one-year. The treating psychologist collected self-administered DASS21 scores. A mixed model analysis was used with age, sex, treating psychologist, months from first session, and session number as fixed effects, with response variables of DASS depression, anxiety, and stress scores. Results: 71.5% were classified as having extreme or severe anxiety and half had extreme or severe depression and/or stress scores. On average males had a greater increase in DASS scores over time but males attending more sessions benefited most from therapy. Discussion: Psychologists are treating rural adolescents in schools for severe anxiety, depression, and stress. This pilot study indicates that a predictive model combining demographics, session frequency, and DASS scores may help identify who is most likely to benefit from individual psychotherapy. Variations in DAS scores of individuals over time indicate the need for the collection of information such as living situation and exposure to alcohol. A larger sample size and additional data are currently being collected to allow for a more robust analysis.

Keywords: adolescent health, psychotherapy, school based mental health services, DAS21

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Authors: Majda Al Salti

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Tourism industry is considered globally as one of the leading industries due to its noticeable contribution to countries' gross domestic product (GDP) and job creation. However, tourism is vulnerable to crisis and disaster that requires its preparedness. With its limited capabilities, there is a need to improve links and the understanding between the tourism industry and the emergency services, thus facilitating future emergency response to any potential incident. This study aims to develop the concept of an integrated emergency management system for the tourism industry. The study used face-to-face semi-structured interviews to evaluate the level of crisis and disaster preparedness of the tourism industry in Oman. The findings suggested that there is a lack of understanding of crisis and disaster management, and hence preparedness level among Oman Tourism Authorities appears to be under-expectation. Therefore, a clear need for tourism sector inter- and intra-integration and collaboration is important in the pre-disaster stage. The need for such integrations can help the tourism industry in Oman to prepare for future incidents as well as identifying its requirements in time of crisis for effective response.

Keywords: tourism, emergency services, crisis, disaster

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Authors: Oguz Ugurkan Akkaya, Alpaslan Sipahi, Ozgur Firat Pamukcu, Murat Yasar, Tolga Guler, Arif Ulu, Ferit Cakir

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With the increase in human population, expansion, and renovation of cities, infrastructure systems today need to be manufactured to be more durable and long-lasting. The most cost-effective and durable manufacturing of components is a general problem of all engineering disciplines. Therefore, it is important to determine the most optimal components. This study mainly focuses on the most optimal component design of the polymer concrete. For this purpose, the lower and upper limits of the three main components of the polymer concrete are determined. The effects of these three principal components on the compressive strength, tensile strength, and unit price of polymer concrete are estimated using the response surface method. Box-Behnken Design is used in designing the experiments. Compressive strength, tensile strength, and unit prices are successfully estimated with variance ratios (R²) of 0.82, 0.92, and 0.90, respectively, and the optimum mixture quantity is determined.

Keywords: Box-Behnken Design, compressive strength, mechanical tests, polymer concrete, tensile strength

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Authors: Manuela Gamba, Niki Mandolesi

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Teenagers today have little knowledge about how to move or play together. The adults who are part of sports culture must find an effective way to foster this essential ability. Our research in Italy uses a 'holistic model' based on fantasy literature to explore the relationships between the game identities and self-identities of young people and the achievement of psycho-motor, emotional and social well-being in the realms of sport and education. Physical activity projects were carried out in schools and extra-curricular associations in Rome, combining outdoor activities and distance learning. This holistic and malleable game model is inspired by fantasy accounts of the journeys taken in The Lord of Rings and Harry Potter books. We know that many have a lot of resistance to the idea of using fantasy and play as a pedagogical tool, but the results obtained in this experience are surprising. Our interventions and investigations focused on promoting self-esteem, awareness, a sense of belonging, social integration, cooperation, well-being, and informed decision making: a basis for healthy and effective citizenship. For teenagers, creative thinking is the right stimulus to involve and compare the story of characters to their own journey through social and self-reflective identity analysis. We observed how important it is to engage students emotionally as well as cognitively and that enabling them to play with identity through relationships with peers. There is a need today for a multidisciplinary synthesis of analog and digital values, especially in response to recent distance-living experiences. There is a need for a global reconceptualization of free time and nature in the human experience.

Keywords: awareness, creativity, identity, play

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Authors: B. Engel, H. Hassan

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Rotary draw bending is a method which is being used in tube forming. In the tube bending process, the neutral axis moves towards the inner arc and the wall thickness distribution changes for tube’s cross section. Thinning takes place in the outer arc of the tube (extrados) due to the stretching of the material, whereas thickening occurs in the inner arc of the tube (intrados) due to the comparison of the material. The calculations of the wall thickness distribution, neutral axis shifting, and strain distribution have not been accurate enough, so far. The previous model (the geometrical model) describes the neutral axis shifting and wall thickness distribution. The geometrical of the tube, bending radius and bending angle are considered in the geometrical model, while the influence of the material properties of the tube forming are ignored. The advanced model is a modification of the previous model using material properties that depends on the correction factor. The correction factor is a purely empirically determined factor. The advanced model was compared with the Finite element simulation (FE simulation) using a different bending factor (Bf=bending radius/ diameter of the tube), wall thickness (Wf=diameter of the tube/ wall thickness), and material properties (strain hardening exponent). Finite element model of rotary draw bending has been performed in PAM-TUBE program (version: 2012). Results from the advanced model resemble the FE simulation and the experimental test.

Keywords: rotary draw bending, material properties, neutral axis shifting, wall thickness distribution

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Authors: Maria Venus G. Solares

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The ancient Filipinos had their own spelling or alphabet that differed from the modern Roman alphabet brought by the Spaniards. It consists of seventeen letters, three vowels, and fourteen consonants and is called Baybayin. The word Baybayin is a Tagalog word that refers to all the letters used in writing a language, an alphabet; however, it is also a syllable. The House Bill 4395, first proposed by Rep. Leopoldo Bataoil of the second district of Pangasinan in 2011, which later became House Bill 1022 of what he called The Declaration of the Baybayin as the National Writing System of the Philippines, prompted the researcher to conduct a study on the topic. The main objective of this study was to develop and assess the proposed module for enhancing the reading and writing skills in Baybayin of the students. The researchers wanted to ensure the acceptability of the Baybayin using the proposed module and meet the needs of students in developing their ability to read and write Baybayin through the module. The researchers used quasi-experimental research in this study. The data was collected through the initial and final analysis of the students of Adamson University's ABM 1102 using convenient sampling techniques. Based on statistical analysis of data using weighted mean, standard deviation, and paired t-tests, the proposed module helped improve the students' literacy skills, and the response exercises in the proposed module changed the acceptability of the Baybayin in their minds. The study showed that there was an important difference in the scores of students before and after the use of the module. The student's response to the assessment of their reading and writing skills on Baybayin was highly acceptable. This study will help develop the reading and writing skills of the students in Baybayin and teach Baybayin in response to the revival of a part of Philippine culture that has been long forgotten.

Keywords: Baybayin, proposed module, skill, acceptability

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Authors: Guorong Sui, Xingwei Jia, Fei Tong, Xiumin Gao

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Camera calibration is a fundamental issue of high precision noncontact measurement. And it is necessary to analyze and study the reliability and application range of its linear model which is often used in the camera calibration. According to the imaging features of monocular cameras, a camera model which is based on the image pixel coordinates and three dimensional space coordinates is built. Using our own customized template, the image pixel coordinate is obtained by the subpixel corner detection method. Without considering the aberration of the optical system, the feature extraction and linearity analysis of the line segment in the template are performed. Moreover, the experiment is repeated 11 times by constantly varying the measuring distance. At last, the linearity of the camera is achieved by fitting 11 groups of data. The camera model measurement results show that the relative error does not exceed 1%, and the repeated measurement error is not more than 0.1 mm magnitude. Meanwhile, it is found that the model has some measurement differences in the different region and object distance. The experiment results show this linear model is simple and practical, and have good linearity within a certain object distance. These experiment results provide a powerful basis for establishment of the linear model of camera. These works will have potential value to the actual engineering measurement.

Keywords: camera linear model, geometric imaging relationship, image pixel coordinates, three dimensional space coordinates, sub-pixel corner detection

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Authors: Ofosuhene O. Apenteng, Noor Azina Ismail

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Over the last several years, concern has developed over how to minimize the spread of HIV/AIDS epidemic in many countries. AIDS epidemic has tremendously stimulated the development of mathematical models of infectious diseases. The transmission dynamics of HIV infection that eventually developed AIDS has taken a pivotal role of much on building mathematical models. From the initial HIV and AIDS models introduced in the 80s, various improvements have been taken into account as how to model HIV/AIDS frameworks. In this paper, we present the impact of migration on the spread of HIV/AIDS. Epidemic model is considered by a system of nonlinear differential equations to supplement the statistical method approach. The model is calibrated using HIV incidence data from Malaysia between 1986 and 2011. Bayesian inference based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo is used to validate the model by fitting it to the data and to estimate the unknown parameters for the model. The results suggest that the migrants stay for a long time contributes to the spread of HIV. The model also indicates that susceptible individual becomes infected and moved to HIV compartment at a rate that is more significant than the removal rate from HIV compartment to AIDS compartment. The disease-free steady state is unstable since the basic reproduction number is 1.627309. This is a big concern and not a good indicator from the public heath point of view since the aim is to stabilize the epidemic at the disease equilibrium.

Keywords: epidemic model, HIV, MCMC, parameter estimation

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Authors: Naragain Phumchusri, Kittitach Pongpairoj

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Overbooking is a very useful revenue management technique that could help reduce costs caused by either undersales or oversales. In this paper, we propose an overbooking model for two types of cars that can minimize the total cost for car rental service. With two types of cars, there is an upgrade possibility for lower type to upper type. This makes the model more complex than one type of cars scenario. We have found that convexity can be proved in this case. Sensitivity analysis of the parameters is conducted to observe the effects of relevant parameters on the optimal solution. Model simplification is proposed using multiple linear regression analysis, which can help estimate the optimal overbooking level using appropriate independent variables. The results show that the overbooking level from multiple linear regression model is relatively close to the optimal solution (with the adjusted R-squared value of at least 72.8%). To evaluate the performance of the proposed model, the total cost was compared with the case where the decision maker uses a naïve method for the overbooking level. It was found that the total cost from optimal solution is only 0.5 to 1 percent (on average) lower than the cost from regression model, while it is approximately 67% lower than the cost obtained by the naïve method. It indicates that our proposed simplification method using regression analysis can effectively perform in estimating the overbooking level.

Keywords: overbooking, car rental industry, revenue management, stochastic model

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Authors: J. Ranjbarn, A. Alibeigloo

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In this paper, we present an analytical method for analysis of nano-scale spherical shell subjected to thermo-mechanical shocks based on nonlocal elasticity theory. Thermo-mechanical properties of nano shpere is assumed to be temperature dependent. Governing partial differential equation of motion is solved analytically by using Laplace transform for time domain and power series for spacial domain. The results in Laplace domain is transferred to time domain by employing the fast inverse Laplace transform (FLIT) method. Accuracy of present approach is assessed by comparing the the numerical results with the results of published work in literature. Furtheremore, the effects of non-local parameter and wall thickness on the dynamic characteristics of the nano-sphere are studied.

Keywords: nano-scale spherical shell, nonlocal elasticity theory, thermomechanical shock, dynamic response

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Authors: W. Hasan, H. Farhat, A. Alhilo, L. Tamimi

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Oil in water (O/W) emulsions are utilized extensively for cooling and lubricating cutting tools during parts machining. A robust Lattice Boltzmann (LBM) thermal-surfactants model, which provides a useful platform for exploring complex emulsions’ characteristics under variety of flow conditions, is used here for the study of the fluid behavior during conventional tools cooling. The transient thermal capabilities of the model are employed for simulating the effects of the flow conditions of O/W emulsions on the cooling of cutting tools. The model results show that the temperature outcome is slightly affected by reversing the direction of upper plate (workpiece). On the other hand, an important increase in effective viscosity is seen which supports better lubrication during the work.

Keywords: hybrid lattice Boltzmann method, Gunstensen model, thermal, surfactant-covered droplet, Marangoni stress

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Authors: Nipun Ansal

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People guard their beliefs and opinions with their lives. Beliefs that they’ve formed over a period of time, and can go to any lengths to defy, desist from, resist and negate any outward stimulus that has the potential to shake them. Cognitive dissonance is term used to describe it in theory. And every human being, in order to defend himself from cognitive dissonance applies 4 rings of defense viz. Selective Exposure, Selective Perception, Selective Attention, and Selective Retention. This paper is a discursive analysis on how the onslaught of social media, complete with its intrusive weaponry, has amorphized the external ring of defense: the selective exposure. The stimulus-response model of communication is one of the most inherent model that encompasses communication behaviours of children and elderly, individual and masses, humans and animals alike. The paper deliberates on how information bombardment through the uncontrollable channels of the social media, Facebook and Twitter in particular, have dismantled our outer sphere of exposure, leading users online to a state of constant dissonance, and thus feeding impulsive action-taking. It applies case study method citing an example to corroborate how knowledge generation has given in to the information overload and the effect it has on decision making. With stimulus increasing in number of encounters, opinion formation precedes knowledge because of the increased demand of participation and decrease in time for the information to permeate from the outer sphere of exposure to the sphere of retention, which of course, is through perception and attention. This paper discusses the challenge posed by this fleeting, stimulus rich, peer-dominated media on the traditional models of communication and meaning-generation.

Keywords: communication, discretion, exposure, social media, stimulus

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Authors: Mohammadreza Mohebbi, Masoumeh Sanagou

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The ability to predict clinical outcomes is of great importance to physicians and clinicians. A number of different methods have been used in an effort to accurately predict these outcomes. These methods include the development of scoring systems based on multivariate statistical modelling, and models involving the use of classification and regression trees. The process usually consists of two consecutive phases, namely model development and external validation. The model development phase consists of building a multivariate model and evaluating its predictive performance by examining calibration and discrimination, and internal validation. External validation tests the predictive performance of a model by assessing its calibration and discrimination in different but plausibly related patients. A motivate example focuses on prediction modeling using a sample of patients undergone coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) has been used for illustrative purpose and a set of primary considerations for evaluating prediction model studies using specific quality indicators as criteria to help stakeholders evaluate the quality of a prediction model study has been proposed.

Keywords: clinical prediction models, clinical decision rule, prognosis, external validation, model calibration, biostatistics

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Authors: Devyani Shete, Sudeep Rai

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Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has caused one of the highest disruptions to the NHS (National Health Service), especially to the fundamental cervical cancer screening service. To prioritize screening response effectively, it is vital to understand the underlying disease risks amongst groups of women who are less likely to resume their screening/follow up at General Practices. The current government target is to have>=80% of women have an adequate test within the previous 3.5 years (ages 25-49) or 5.5 years (ages 50-64). Aims/Objectives: To increase the number of eligible people aged 25-49 attending cervical screening by 5% at Lakeside Healthcare (a General Practice in Corby). Methods: An online survey was posted on the Lakeside Healthcare website to find out what the barriers towards cervical screening were. It was apparent that patients needed more information catered to their responses. 6 informational videos and a “Cervical Screening Guide” were created for Lakeside patients about cervical screening, which were posted on the Healthcare website. Lakeside also started sending reminder texts to those eligible, with a link to a booking form. Results: On 18th January 2022, 69.7% of patients aged 25-49 years (7207) had an adequate cervical screening test in the last 3.5 years. There were 80 total responders to the online survey. In response to “which of the following are reasons why you have not attended screening”, 30% ticked “I kept putting it off/did not get around to it,” and 13% ticked “I was worried it would be painful or daunting.” In response to “which of the following would make you more likely to book an appointment”, 23% ticked “More detailed explanations of what the risks are if I don’t have screening,” and 20% ticked “I would like more information about the test and what the smear entails.” 10% of responders had previous trauma, whilst 28% of responders said the pandemic had impacted them getting a smear. Survey results were used to carry out interventions to increase smear uptake. On 23rdMarch 2022 (after a 2-month period), 75%of patients aged 25-49 (7119) attended the screening, which was a 5.3% increase from January. Discussion/Conclusion: The survey was vital in carrying out the exact interventions that were required for patients to increase screening uptake, as it is important to know what the populations’ needs are in order to create personalized invitations. This helps to optimise response during a pandemic. A HPV self-sample kit at home could be a popular method of dealing with further outbreaks.

Keywords: gynaecology, cervical screening, public health, COVID-19

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Authors: H. Sakamoto, Y. Nakagawara, S. Oguri

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Drought stress is a critical environmental factor that adversely affects crop productivity and quality. Because of their immobile nature, plants have evolved mechanisms to sense and respond to drought stress. We identified a novel locus of Arabidopsis, designated DRA1 (drought responsive ankyrin 1), whose disruption leads to increased drought stress tolerance. DRA1 encodes a transmembrane protein with an ankyrin repeat motif that has been implicated in diverse cellular processes such as signal transduction. RT-PCR analysis revealed that there were at least two splicing variants of DRA1 transcripts in wild type plants. In response to drought stress, the levels of DRA1 transcripts retaining second and third introns were increased, whereas these introns were removed under unstressed conditions. These results suggest that DRA1 protein may negatively regulate plant drought tolerance and that the expression of DRA1 is regulated in response to drought stress by alternative splicing.

Keywords: alternative splicing, ankyrin repeat, Arabidopsis, drought tolerance

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Authors: Mohammad Reza Dahmardeh Ghaleno, Mohammad Nohtani, Saeedeh Khaledi

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Hydrological models are applied to simulation and prediction floods in watersheds. WetSpa is a distributed, continuous and physically model with daily or hourly time step that explains of precipitation, runoff and evapotranspiration processes for both simple and complex contexts. This model uses a modified rational method for runoff calculation. In this model, runoff is routed along the flow path using Diffusion-Wave Equation which depend on the slope, velocity and flow route characteristics. Garmabrood watershed located in Mazandaran province in Iran and passing over coordinates 53° 10´ 55" to 53° 38´ 20" E and 36° 06´ 45" to 36° 25´ 30"N. The area of the catchment is about 1133 km2 and elevations in the catchment range from 213 to 3136 m at the outlet, with average slope of 25.77 %. Results of the simulations show a good agreement between calculated and measured hydrographs at the outlet of the basin. Drawing upon Nash-Sutcliffe Model Efficiency Coefficient for calibration periodic model estimated daily hydrographs and maximum flow rate with an accuracy up to 61% and 83.17 % respectively.

Keywords: watershed simulation, WetSpa, runoff, flood prediction

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Authors: Madina Hamiane

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Modelling and simulation of an analogy function generator is presented based on a polynomial expansion model. The proposed function generator model is based on a 10th order polynomial approximation of any of the required functions. The polynomial approximations of these functions can then be implemented using basic CMOS circuit blocks. In this paper, a circuit model is proposed that can simultaneously generate many different mathematical functions. The circuit model is designed and simulated with HSPICE and its performance is demonstrated through the simulation of a number of non-linear functions.

Keywords: modelling and simulation, analog function generator, polynomial approximation, CMOS transistors

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Authors: Mohanad Al-Behadili, Djamila Ouelhadj

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In this paper, a specific type of vehicle routing problem under stochastic demand (SVRP) is considered. This problem is of great importance because it models for many of the real world vehicle routing applications. This paper used a robust optimisation model to solve the problem along with the novel Simulation-Particle Swarm Optimisation (Sim-PSO) approach. The proposed Sim-PSO approach is based on the hybridization of the Monte Carlo simulation technique with the PSO algorithm. A comparative study between the proposed model and the Sim-PSO approach against other solution methods in the literature has been given in this paper. This comparison including the Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) to show the ability of the model and solution method in solving the complicated SVRP. The experimental results show that the proposed model and Sim-PSO approach has a significant impact on the obtained solution by providing better quality solutions comparing with well-known algorithms in the literature.

Keywords: stochastic vehicle routing problem, robust optimisation model, Monte Carlo simulation, particle swarm optimisation

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Authors: Sahar Essa, Hussain A. Safar, Raj Raghupathy

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Human cytomegalovirus (CMV) continues to be a source of severe complications in immunologically immature and immunocompromised hosts. Effective CMV vaccines that help diminish CMV disease in transplant patients and avoid congenital infection are of great importance. Though the exact roles of defense mechanisms are unidentified, viral-specific antibodies and cytokine responses are known to be involved in controlling CMV infections. CMV envelope glycoprotein B (UL55/gB), matrix proteins (UL83/pp65, UL99/pp28, UL32/pp150), and assembly protein UL80a/pp38 are known to be targets of antiviral immune responses. We immunized mice intraperitoneally with these five CMV-related proteins (commercial) for their ability to induce specific antibody responses (in-house immunoassay) and cytokine production (commercial assay) in a mouse model. We observed a significant CMV-antigen-specific antibody response to pp38 and pp65 (E/C ˃2.0, p˂0.001). Mice immunized with pp38 had significantly higher concentrations of GM-CSF, IFN-α, IL-2 IL-4, IL-5, and IL-17A (p˂0.05). Mice immunized with pp65 showed significantly higher concentrations of GM-CSF, IFN-γ, IL-2 IL-4, IL-10, IL-12, IL-17A, and TNF-α. Th1 to Th2 cytokines ratios revealed a Th1 cytokine bias in mice immunized with pp38, pp65, pp150, and gB. We suggest that stimulation with multiple CMV-related proteins, which include pp38, pp65, and gB antigens, will allow both humoral and cellular immune responses to be efficiently activated, thus serving as appropriate CMV antigens for future vaccines.

Keywords: cytomegalovirus, UL99/pp28, UL80a/pp38, UL83/pp65, UL32/pp150, UL55/gB, CMV-antigen-specific antibody, CMV antigen-specific cytokine responses

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Authors: Siti Khadijah Che Osmi, Syed Mohd Ahmad

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This paper presents a methodology to develop fragility curves for shallow tunnels so as to describe a relationship between seismic hazard and tunnel vulnerability. Emphasis is given to the influence of surrounding soil material properties because the dynamic behaviour of the tunnel mostly depends on it. Four ground properties of soils ranging from stiff to soft soils are selected. A 3D nonlinear time history analysis is used to evaluate the seismic response of the tunnel when subjected to five real earthquake ground intensities. The derived curves show the future probabilistic performance of the tunnels based on the predicted level of damage states corresponding to the peak ground acceleration. A comparison of the obtained results with the previous literature is provided to validate the reliability of the proposed fragility curves. Results show the significant role of soil properties and input motions in evaluating the seismic performance and response of shallow tunnels.

Keywords: fragility analysis, seismic performance, tunnel lining, vulnerability

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Authors: Vinko Vidučić, Ljiljana Vidučić, Damir Boras

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The goals of the research include the determination of the characteristics of SMEs finance in Croatia, as well as the determination of indirect growth rates of the information model of the entrepreneurs` perception of business environment. The research results show that cost of finance and access to finance are most important constraining factor in setting up and running the business of small entrepreneurs in Croatia. Furthermore, small entrepreneurs in Croatia are significantly dissatisfied with the administrative barriers although relatively to a lesser extent than was the case in the pre-crisis time. High collateral requirement represents the main characteristic of bank lending concerning SMEs followed by long credit elaboration process. Formulated information model has defined the individual impact of indirect growth rates of the remaining variables on the model’s specific variable.

Keywords: business environment, information model, indirect growth rates, SME finance

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Authors: Septiawan A. Saputro, Purnami Widyaningsih, Sutanto Sastraredja

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Measles is a disease which can spread caused by a virus and has been a priority’s Ministry of Health in Indonesia to be solved. Each infected person can be recovered and get immunity so that the spread of the disease can be constructed with susceptible infected recovered (SIR). To prevent the spread of measles transmission, the Ministry of Health holds vaccinations program. The aims of the research are to derive susceptible vaccinated infected recovered (SVIR) model, to determine the patterns of disease spread with SVIR model, and also to apply the SVIR model on the spread of measles in Indonesia. Based on the article, it can be concluded that the spread model of measles with vaccinations, that is SVIR model. It is a first-order differential equation system. The patterns of disease spread is determined by solution of the model. Based on that model Indonesia will be a measles-free nation in 2186 with the average of vaccinations scope about 88% and the average score of vaccinations failure about 4.9%. If it is simulated as Ministry of Health new programs with the average of vaccinations scope about 95% and the average score of vaccinations failure about 3%, then Indonesia will be a measles-free nation in 2184. Even with the average of vaccinations scope about 100% and no failure of vaccinations, Indonesia will be a measles-free nation in 2183. Indonesia’s target as a measles-free nation in 2020 has not been reached.

Keywords: measles, vaccination, susceptible infected recovered (SIR), susceptible vaccinated infected recovered (SVIR)

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Authors: A. Elmikaty, Z. Thanawarothon, L. Mezeix

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This paper presents a finite element model to simulate the teeth failure of non-circular composite chainring. Model consists of the chainring and a part of the chain. To reduce the size of the model, only the first 11 rollers are simulated. In order to validate the model, it is firstly applied to a circular aluminum chainring and evolution of the stress in the teeth is compared with the literature. Then, effect of the non-circular shape is studied through three different loading positions. Strength of non-circular composite chainring and failure scenario is investigated. Moreover, two composite lay-ups are proposed to observe the influence of the stacking. Results show that composite material can be used but the lay-up has a large influence on the strength. Finally, loading position does not have influence on the first composite failure that always occurs in the first tooth.

Keywords: CFRP, composite failure, FEA, non-circular chainring

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Authors: Kazeem Adesina Dauda, Waheed Babatunde Yahya

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To design a tree that maximizes within-node homogeneity, there is a need for a homogeneity measure that is appropriate for event history data with multiple risks. We consider the use of Deviance and Modified Cox-Snell residuals as a measure of impurity in Classification Regression Tree (CART) and compare our results with the results of Fiona (2008) in which homogeneity measures were based on Martingale Residual. Data structure approach was used to validate the performance of our proposed techniques via simulation and real life data. The results of univariate competing risk revealed that: using Deviance and Cox-Snell residuals as a response in within node homogeneity classification tree perform better than using other residuals irrespective of performance techniques. Bone marrow transplant data and double-blinded randomized clinical trial, conducted in other to compare two treatments for patients with prostate cancer were used to demonstrate the efficiency of our proposed method vis-à-vis the existing ones. Results from empirical studies of the bone marrow transplant data showed that the proposed model with Cox-Snell residual (Deviance=16.6498) performs better than both the Martingale residual (deviance=160.3592) and Deviance residual (Deviance=556.8822) in both event of interest and competing risks. Additionally, results from prostate cancer also reveal the performance of proposed model over the existing one in both causes, interestingly, Cox-Snell residual (MSE=0.01783563) outfit both the Martingale residual (MSE=0.1853148) and Deviance residual (MSE=0.8043366). Moreover, these results validate those obtained from the Monte-Carlo studies.

Keywords: within-node homogeneity, Martingale residual, modified Cox-Snell residual, classification and regression tree

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Authors: Siriraks Khawchaimaha, Sangwian Boonto

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Sport Authority of Thailand (SAT) is the state enterprise, promotes and supports all sports kind both professional and athletes for competitions, and administer under government policy and government officers and therefore, all financial supports whether cash inflows and cash outflows are strictly committed to government budget and limited to the planned projects at least 12 to 16 months ahead of reality, as results of ineffective in sport events, administration and competitions. In order to retain in the sports challenges around the world, SAT need to has its own sports business services model by each stadium, region and athletes’ competencies. Based on the HMK model of Khawchaimaha, S. (2007), this research study is formalized into each 10 regional stadiums to details into the characteristics root of fans, athletes, coaches, equipments and facilities, and stadiums. The research designed is firstly the evaluation of external factors: hardware whereby competition or practice of stadiums, playground, facilities, and equipments. Secondly, to understand the software of the organization structure, staffs and management, administrative model, rules and practices. In addition, budget allocation and budget administration with operating plan and expenditure plan. As results for the third step, issues and limitations which require action plan for further development and support, or to cease that unskilled sports kind. The final step, based on the HMK model and modeling canvas by Alexander O and Yves P (2010) are those of template generating Sports Business Services Model for each 10 SAT’s regional stadiums.

Keywords: HMK model, not for profit organization, sport business model, sport services model

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Authors: Satyendra Mourya, Jyoti Jaiswal, Gaurav Malik, Brijesh Kumar, Ramesh Chandra

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Present work describes the fabrication and sensing characteristics of the Pd-Pt decorated nanostructured silicon carbide (SiC) thin films on anodized porous silicon (PSi) substrate by RF magnetron sputtering. The gas sensing performance of Pd-Pt/SiC/PSi sensing electrode towards H2 gas under low (10–400 ppm) detection limit and high operating temperature regime (25–600 °C) were studied in detail. The chemiresistive sensor exhibited high selectivity, good sensing response, fast response/recovery time with excellent stability towards H2 at high temperature. The selectivity measurement of the sensing electrode was done towards different oxidizing and reducing gases and proposed sensing mechanism discussed in detail. Therefore, the investigated Pd-Pt/SiC/PSi structure may be a highly sensitive and selective hydrogen gas sensing electrode for deployment in extreme environment applications.

Keywords: RF Sputtering, silicon carbide, porous silicon, hydrogen gas sensor

Procedia PDF Downloads 306

Authors: Andrea ČopíKová

Abstract:

Competency Based Management is a new approach to management, which solves organization’s challenges with complexity and with the aim to find and solve organization’s problems and learn how to avoid these in future. They teach the organizations to create, apart from the state of stability – that is temporary, vital organization, which is permanently able to utilize and profit from internal and external opportunities. The aim of this paper is to propose a process of competency model design, based on which a competency model for a financial department manager in a production company will be created. Competency models are very useful tool in many personnel processes in any organization. They are used for acquiring and selection of employees, designing training and development activities, employees’ evaluation, and they can be used as a guide for a career planning and as a tool for succession planning especially for managerial positions. When creating a competency model the method AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) and quantitative pair-wise comparison (Saaty’s method) will be used; these methods belong among the most used methods for the determination of weights, and it is used in the AHP procedure. The introduction part of the paper consists of the research results pertaining to the use of competency model in practice and then the issue of competency and competency models is explained. The application part describes in detail proposed methodology for the creation of competency models, based on which the competency model for the position of financial department manager in a foreign manufacturing company, will be created. In the conclusion of the paper, the final competency model will be shown for above mentioned position. The competency model divides selected competencies into three groups that are managerial, interpersonal and functional. The model describes in detail individual levels of competencies, their target value (required level) and the level of importance.

Keywords: analytic hierarchy process, competency, competency model, quantitative pairwise comparison

Procedia PDF Downloads 244

Authors: Mohd Ishfaq Bhat, Navin Chandra Shahi, Umesh Chandra Lohani

Abstract:

The present study aimed to evaluate the effect of microwave application in synergy with the conventional sodium chlorite delignification of rice straw biomass. For the study, Box-Behnken experimental design involving four independent parameters, each with three levels viz. microwave power (480-800 W), irradiation time (4-12 min), bleaching solution concentration (0.4-3.0%), and bleaching time (1-5h) was used. The response was taken in the form of delignification percentage. The optimization of process parameters was done through response surface methodology. The respective optimum parameters of microwave power, irradiation time, bleaching solution concentration, and bleaching time were obtained as 671 W, 8.66 min, 2.67%, and 1h. The delignification percentage achieved at optimum conditions was 93.51%. The spectral, morphological, and x-ray diffraction characteristics of the rice straw powder after delignification showed a complete absence of lignin peaks, deconstruction of lignocellulose complex, and an increase of crystallinity (from 39.8 to 61.6 %).

Keywords: lignocellulosic biomass, delignification, microwaves, rice straw, characterization

Procedia PDF Downloads 147

Authors: Ketan Naik, P. H. Bhathawala

Abstract:

The purpose of this work is to develop a mathematical model of Human Cardiovascular System using lumped parameter method. The model is divided in three parts: Systemic Circulation, Pulmonary Circulation and the Heart. The established mathematical model has been simulated by MATLAB software. The innovation of this study is in describing the system based on the vessel diameters and simulating mathematical equations with active electrical elements. Terminology of human physical body and required physical data like vessel’s radius, thickness etc., which are required to calculate circuit parameters like resistance, inductance and capacitance, are proceeds from well-known medical books. The developed model is useful to understand the anatomic of human cardiovascular system and related syndromes. The model is deal with vessel’s pressure and blood flow at certain time.

Keywords: cardiovascular system, lumped parameter method, mathematical modeling, simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 333