Search results for: market risk

Authors: Amadou Wurry Jallow, Adama N. S. Bah, Karamo Bah, Shih-Ye Wang, Kuo-Chung Chu, Chien-Yeh Hsu

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Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a major public health challenge with high prevalence, rising incidence, and serious adverse consequences. Developing effective risk prediction models is a cost-effective approach to predicting and preventing complications of chronic kidney disease (CKD). This study aimed to develop an accurate machine learning model that can dynamically identify individuals at risk of CKD using various kinds of diagnostic data, with or without laboratory data, at different follow-up points. Creatinine is a key component used to predict CKD. These models will enable affordable and effective screening for CKD even with incomplete patient data, such as the absence of creatinine testing. This retrospective cohort study included data on 19,429 adults provided by a private research institute and screening laboratory in Taiwan, gathered between 2001 and 2015. Univariate Cox proportional hazard regression analyses were performed to determine the variables with high prognostic values for predicting CKD. We then identified interacting variables and grouped them according to diagnostic data categories. Our models used three types of data gathered at three points in time: non-laboratory, laboratory, and metabolic indices data. Next, we used subgroups of variables within each category to train two machine learning models (Random Forest and XGBoost). Our machine learning models can dynamically discriminate individuals at risk for developing CKD. All the models performed well using all three kinds of data, with or without laboratory data. Using only non-laboratory-based data (such as age, sex, body mass index (BMI), and waist circumference), both models predict chronic kidney disease as accurately as models using laboratory and metabolic indices data. Our machine learning models have demonstrated the use of different categories of diagnostic data for CKD prediction, with or without laboratory data. The machine learning models are simple to use and flexible because they work even with incomplete data and can be applied in any clinical setting, including settings where laboratory data is difficult to obtain.

Keywords: chronic kidney disease, glomerular filtration rate, creatinine, novel metabolic indices, machine learning, risk prediction

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Authors: Malraj Bharatha Kiriella

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The purpose of this paper is to investigate the determinants of tourism foreign direct investment (TFDI) to selected developing countries during 1978-2017. The study used pooled panel data to estimate an econometric model. The findings show that market size and institutional barriers are determining factors for TFDI in countries, while other variables of positive country conditions, FDI-related government policy, tourism-related infrastructure and labor conditions are insignificant. The result shows that institutional effects are positive, while market size negatively affects TFDI inflows. The research is limited to eight developing countries. The results can be used to support government policy on TFDI. The paper makes the following contributions: First, it provides important insight and understanding into the TFDI decision-making process in developing countries. Second, both TFDI theory and evidence are minimal, and an econometric model developed on the basis of available literature has been empirically tested.

Keywords: determinants, developing countries, FDI in tourism, panel data

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Authors: Nabila Farhin, Israt Jahan

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Despite the feminisation of the global health force, women mostly engage in nursing, midwifery and community health workers (HWs), and the posts like surgeons, doctors, and specialists are generally male-dominated. It is also prominent in Bangladesh, where female HWs witness systematic workplace inequalities, discrimination, and underpayment. The Covid-19 pandemic put unsurmountable pressure on HWs as they had to serve in high-risk workplaces as frontliners. The already disadvantaged female HWs shouldered the same burden, were overworked without adequate occupational health and safety measures (OSH) and risked their lives. Acknowledging their vulnerable workplace conditions, the World Health Organization (WHO) and International Labour Organization (ILO) circulated a few specialised guidelines amid the peril. Bangladesh tried to adhere to international guidelines while formulating pandemic management strategies. In reality, the already weak and understaffed health sector collapsed with the patient influx and many HWs got infected and died in the line of duty, exposing the high-risk nature of the work. Unfortunately, the gender-segregated data of infected HWs are absent. This qualitative research investigates whether the existing laws of Bangladesh are adequate in protecting female HWs as frontliners in high-risk workplaces during the Covid-19 pandemic. The paper first examines international labour laws safeguarding female frontline HWs. It also analyses the specialised Covid-19 pandemic guidelines protecting their interests. Finally, the research investigates the compliance of Bangladesh as per international legal guidance during the pandemic. In doing so, it explores the domestic laws, professional guidelines for HWs and pandemic response strategies. The paper critically examines the primary sources like international and national statutes, rules, regulations and guidelines. Secondary sources like authoritative journal articles, books and newspaper reports are contextually analysed in line with the objective of the paper. The definition of HW is ambiguous in the labour laws of Bangladesh. It leads to confusion regarding the extent of legal protection rendered to female HWs at private hospitals in high-risk situations. The labour laws are not applicable in Public hospitals, as the employees follow the public service rules. Unfortunately, the country has no specialised law to protect HWs in high-risk workplaces, and the professional guidelines for HWs also remain inadequate in this regard. Even though the pandemic management strategies highlight some protective measures in high-risk situations, they only deal with HWs who are pregnant or have underlying health issues. No specialised protective guidelines can be found for female HWs as frontliners. Therefore, the laws are insufficient and failed to render adequate legal protection to female frontline HWs during the pandemic. The country also lacks comprehensive health legislation and uniform institutional and professional guidelines, preventing them from accessing grievance mechanisms. Hence, the female HWs felt victimised while duty-bound to serve in high-risk workplaces without adequate safeguards. Bangladesh should clarify the definition of HWs and standardise the service rules for providing medical care in high-risk workplaces. The research also recommends adequate health legislation and specialised legal protection to safeguard female HWs in future emergencies.

Keywords: female health workers (HWs), high-risk workplaces, Covid-19 pandemic, Bangladesh

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Authors: Siti Salina Abdullah

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Drug abuse is a global problem that affects individuals everywhere. The onset of drug use is usually during adolescence. The use of most drugs has been found to be more prevalent among adolescents than among adults. Drug abuse among adolescents is receiving more attention from parents, friends, communities, and policymakers. Adolescent drug use has been linked to higher rates of physical and mental illness, as well as decreased overall health and well-being. Furthermore, adolescents who use drugs are more susceptible to addiction. The increasing trend of drug use among young generations, particularly in Malaysia, is causing significant concerns. Adolescent drug use is commonly linked to peers, environment, and families. The National Anti-Drugs Agency (NADA) is the main agency in Malaysia that works with the Ministry of Home Affairs to prevent drug and substance abuse. NADA operates by providing preventive drug education, enforcement and security measures, treatment, medical rehabilitation, and international relations. The objective of this study is to examine the involvement of parents living in high-risk drug environments in drug prevention programs. It also discusses the difficulties they face when participating in drug prevention programs. This study was conducted in high-risk areas identified by National Anti-Drug Agencies (Malaysia). A total of 515 drug-free parents were interviewed in this study. The findings showed that B40 families were the majority among families living in high-risk drug environments. The study shows that drug prevention programs have a low participation rate among respondents. Previous research has demonstrated that drug prevention programs have a low rate of participation. The NADA campaign 'Prevention Start from Home' requires that this issue is addressed. To ensure that this campaign works, families, especially those at risk, should be empowered to participate in drug prevention programs. To fight drug problems among teenagers, it is crucial for families to take the first step in conducting prevention measures. To ensure that families with young children are equipped with drug prevention information, more advocacy programs are required. In addition, the drug prevention program should be accessible and reachable to families.

Keywords: drug prevention program, drug abuse, family, malaysia

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Authors: Lisa C. Wan

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To address customers’ safety concerns, more and more hospitality companies are using service robots to provide contactless services. For many companies, the switch from human employees to service robots to lower the contagion risk during and after the pandemic may be permanent. The market size for hospitality service robots is estimated to reach US$3,083 million by 2030, registering a CAGR of 25.5% from 2021 to 2030. While service robots may effectively reduce interpersonal contacts and health risk, it also eliminates the social interactions desired by customers. A recent survey revealed that more than 60% of Americans feel lonely during the pandemic. People who are traveling can also feel isolated when they are at a hotel far away from home. It is therefore important for the hospitality companies to understand whether and how social robots can remedy deprived social connection not only due to a pandemic but also for a trip away from home in the post-pandemic future. This study complements extant hospitality literature regarding service robots by examining how service robots can forge social connections with customers. The service robots we are concerned with are those that can interact and communicate with humans; we broadly refer to them as social robots. We define a social robot as one that is equipped with interaction capabilities – it can either be one that directly interacts with the consumer or one through which the consumer can interact with other humans. Drawing on the theories of mind perception, we propose that service robots can foster social connectedness and increase the perception of social competence of the robot, but these effects will vary across cultures. By applying theories of mind perception and cultural dimension to the hospitality setting, this study shows that service robots that are equipped with social connection function will receive a more favorable evaluation from the consumers and enhance their intention to visit a hotel. The more favorable reaction to social robots is stronger for collectivists (i.e., Asians) than individualists (i.e., Westerners). To our knowledge, this is among the first studies to investigate the impact of culture on consumer reactions to social robots in the hospitality and tourism context. Moreover, this research extends the literature by examining whether people imbue non-human entities (i.e., telepresence social robots) with social competence. Because social robots that foster social connection with humans are still rare in hospitality and tourism, this aspect is an underexplored research area. Our study is the first to propose that, just like their human counterparts that possess relevant social skills, social robots’ interaction capabilities (e.g., telepresence robots) are used to infer social competence. More studies will be conducted to examine consumer reactions to humanoid (vs. non-humanoid) robot in the hospitality settings to generalize our research findings.

Keywords: service robots, COVID-19, social connection, cultures

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Authors: Eakarat Boonreang

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The past two decades, Thailand faced the natural disasters, for instance, Gay typhoon in 1989, tsunami in 2004, and huge flood in 2011. The disaster management in Thailand was improved both structure and mechanism for cope with the natural disaster since 2007. However, the natural disaster management in Thailand has various problems, for examples, cooperation between related an organizations have not unity, inadequate resources, the natural disaster management of public sectors not proactive, people has not awareness the risk of the natural disaster, and communities did not participate in the natural disaster management. Objective of this study is to find the methods for capacity building in the natural disaster management of Thailand. The concept and information about the capacity building and the natural disaster management of Thailand were reviewed and analyzed by classifying and organizing data. The result found that the methods for capacity building in the natural disaster management of Thailand should be consist of 1)link operation and information in the natural disaster management between nation, province, local and community levels, 2)enhance competency and resources of public sectors which relate to the natural disaster management, 3)establish proactive natural disaster management both planning and implementation, 4)decentralize the natural disaster management to local government organizations, 5)construct public awareness in the natural disaster management to community, 6)support Community Based Disaster Risk Management (CBDRM) seriously, and 7)emphasis on participation in the natural disaster management of all stakeholders.

Keywords: capacity building, Community Based Disaster Risk Management (CBDRM), Natural Disaster Management, Thailand

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Authors: Yongrong Liu, Xin Tang

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Background: Persistent atrial fibrillation is a common arrhythmia closely related to heart failure. Heart rate control is an essential strategy for treating persistent atrial fibrillation. Still, the understanding of the relationship between different heart rate control levels and the risk of heart failure rehospitalization is limited. Objective: The objective of the study is to determine the relationship between different levels of heart rate control in patients with persistent atrial fibrillation and the risk of readmission for heart failure. Methods: We conducted a retrospective dual-centre cohort study, collecting data from patients with persistent atrial fibrillation who received outpatient treatment at two tertiary hospitals in central and western China from March 2019 to March 2020. The collected data included age, gender, body mass index (BMI), medical history, and hospitalization frequency due to heart failure. Patients were divided into three groups based on their heart rate control levels: Group I with a resting heart rate of less than 80 beats per minute, Group II with a resting heart rate between 80 and 100 beats per minute, and Group III with a resting heart rate greater than 100 beats per minute. The readmission rates due to heart failure within one year after discharge were statistically analyzed using propensity score matching in a 1:1 ratio. Differences in readmission rates among the different groups were compared using one-way ANOVA. The impact of varying levels of heart rate control on the risk of readmission for heart failure was assessed using the Cox proportional hazards model. Binary logistic regression analysis was employed to control for potential confounding factors. Results: We enrolled a total of 1136 patients with persistent atrial fibrillation. The results of the one-way ANOVA showed that there were differences in readmission rates among groups exposed to different levels of heart rate control. The readmission rates due to heart failure for each group were as follows: Group I (n=432): 31 (7.17%); Group II (n=387): 11.11%; Group III (n=317): 90 (28.50%) (F=54.3, P<0.001). After performing 1:1 propensity score matching for the different groups, 223 pairs were obtained. Analysis using the Cox proportional hazards model showed that compared to Group I, the risk of readmission for Group II was 1.372 (95% CI: 1.125-1.682, P<0.001), and for Group III was 2.053 (95% CI: 1.006-5.437, P<0.001). Furthermore, binary logistic regression analysis, including variables such as digoxin, hypertension, smoking, coronary heart disease, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease as independent variables, revealed that coronary heart disease and COPD also had a significant impact on readmission due to heart failure (p<0.001). Conclusion: The correlation between the heart rate control level of patients with persistent atrial fibrillation and the risk of heart failure rehospitalization is positive. Reasonable heart rate control may significantly reduce the risk of heart failure rehospitalization.

Keywords: heart rate control levels, heart failure rehospitalization, persistent atrial fibrillation, retrospective cohort study

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Authors: Abebaw Assaye, Seiichi Sakurai, Marutama Atsush, Dawit Alemu

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Rice is considered as a strategic agricultural commodity targeting national food security and import substitution in Ethiopia and diverse measures are put in place a number of initiatives to ensure the growth and development of rice sector in the country. This study assessed factors that influence smallholder farmers' level of rice commercialization in Ethiopia. The required data were generated from 594 randomly sampled rice producers using multi-stage sampling techniques from four major rice-producing regional states. Both descriptive and econometric methods were used to analyze the data. We adopted the ordered probit model to analyze factors determining output commercialization in the rice market. The ordered probit model result showed that the sex of the household head, educational status of the household head, credit use, proportion of irrigated land cultivated, membership in social groups, and land dedicated to rice production were found to influence significantly and positively the probability of being commercial-oriented. Conversely, the age of the household, total cultivated land, and distance to the main market were found to influence negatively. These findings suggest that promoting productivity-increasing technologies, development of irrigation facilities, strengthening of social institutions, and facilitating access to credit are crucial for enhancing the commercialization of rice in the study area. Since agricultural lands are limited, intensified farming through promoting improved rice technologies and mechanized farming could be an option to enhance marketable surplus and increase level of rice market particicpation.

Keywords: rice, commercialization, Tobit, ordered probit, Ethiopia

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Authors: Mehrdad HassanZadeh Dugoori, Iman Mohammadali Tajrishi

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Since Iran's nuclear program became public in 2002, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has been unable to confirm Tehran's assertions that its nuclear activities are exclusively for peaceful purposes and that it has not sought to develop nuclear weapons. The United Nations Security Council has adopted six resolutions since 2006 requiring Iran to stop enriching uranium - which can be used for civilian purposes, but also to build nuclear bombs, which Iran never follow this strategy- and co-operate with the IAEA. Four resolutions have included progressively expansive sanctions to persuade Tehran to comply. The US and EU have imposed additional sanctions on Iranian oil exports and banks since 2012. In this article we reassess the sanction dimensions of Iran and the influences. Then according to the last agreement between P5+1 and Iran in 15 July 2015, we mention reconstruction strategies for oil export markets of Iran and the operational program for one million barrel of crude oil sales per day. These strategies are the conclusion of focus group and brain storming with Iran's oil and gas managers during content analysis.

Keywords: post-sanction, oil market, reconstruction, marketing, strategy

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Authors: Aimen Batool Bint-E-Rashid, Syed Muhammad Dawood Ali Shah, Muhammad Usman Farooq, Mahgul Anwar

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As the world is progressing, the needs and demands of the consumer market are also changing. Nowadays the trends of consumer purchase decisions are dependent upon multiple factors. This study aims to identify the influential impact of country of origin over the perception and devotion towards daily personal care products specifically in reference to the knowledge and awareness regarding that particular brand in Pakistan. To corroborate this study, a 30-item brand origin questionnaire has been used with 300 purchase decision makers belonging to different age groups. To illustrate this study, a model has been developed based on brand origin, brand awareness and brand loyalty. Correlation and regression analysis have been used to find out the results which conclude the findings on the perspective of Pakistan’s consumer market as that brand origin has a direct relationship with brand loyalty provided that the consumer has a positive brand awareness. Support for the fact that brand origin impacts brand loyalty through brand awareness has been presented in this study.

Keywords: brand awareness, brand loyalty, brand origin, personal care products, P&G, Unilever

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Authors: Sara Mouffouk, Fatma Belaid, Asma Hechani, Chaima Mouffouk

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Cancer of the cervix caused by HPV (human papillomavirus ) is for many years a real public health problem, it is ranked 2nd deadly female cancer kills more than 270 000 women each year worldwide. In Algeria, the mortality of cervical cancer decreases with the impact, but the prognosis of these cancers remains bleak: The 5-year relative survival is 60 %. The mode of transmission is usually sexuel. Our study was undertaken to show the link between HPV and cervical cancer and the importance of Pap smear screening in this type of pathology. On the total sample, 76.11 % showed abnormal cervical smears of which 13% have mild cases and hormonal reaction Change, and 44% represent inflammatory smears and normal cases 35%, while long seven years from 2005 to 2012. Thus, 43% of abnormal smear results between ASCUS, AGUS, low and high grade carcinoma and adenocarcinoma and 57 % of other cases of unknown origin. The average age of women at risk of developing adenocarcinoma is 45-50 with a 67% to 33% of the same risk in women of age group 41-45 years although the percentage of cases of HPV infected patients was 2% in the past seven years. We found that with increasing age, the risk is argued. Due to several factors such as multiparty can reduced the resistance of the uterine epithelium and even as the multi that promotes contamination HPV causes repeated infections with HPV.

Keywords: cervical cancer, human papillomavirus (HPV) screening, prevention, vaccines

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Authors: Sima Majnooni

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This paper discusses the Green Climate Fund's environmental and social management framework (GCF). The environmental and social management framework ensures the accredited entity considers the GCF's accreditation standards and effectively implements each of the GCF-funded projects. The GCF requires all accredited entities to meet basic transparency and accountability standards as well as environmental and social safeguards (ESMS). In doing so, the accredited entity sets up different independent units. One of these units is called the Grievance Mechanism. When allegations of environmental and social harms are raised in association with GCF-funded activities, affected parties can contact the entity’s grievance unit. One of the most challenging things about the accredited entity's grievance unit is the lack of available information and resources on the entities' websites. Many AEs have anti-corruption or anti-money laundering unit, but they do not have the environmental and social unit for affected people. This paper will argue the effectiveness of environmental and social grievance mechanisms of AEs by using a qualitative approach to indicate how many of AEs have a poor or an effective GRM. Some ESMSs seem highly effective. On the other hand, other mechanisms lack basic requirements such as a clear, transparent, uniform procedure and a definitive timetable. We have looked at each AE mechanism not only in light of how the website goes into detail regarding the process of grievance mechanism but also in light of their risk category. Many mechanisms appear inadequate for the lower level risk category entities (C) and, even surprisingly, for many higher-risk categories (A). We found; in most cases, the grievance mechanism of AEs seems vague.

Keywords: grievance mechanism, vague environmental and social policies, green climate fund, international climate finance, lower and higher risk category

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Authors: Hossam Shalabi, George Hadjisophocleous

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The Canadian Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) use some portions of NUREG/CR-6850 in carrying out Fire Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). An assessment for the applicability of NUREG/CR-6850 to CANDU reactors was performed and a CANDU Fire PRA was introduced. There are 19 operating CANDU reactors in Canada at five sites (Bruce A, Bruce B, Darlington, Pickering and Point Lepreau). A fire load density survey was done for all Fire Safe Shutdown Analysis (FSSA) fire zones in all CANDU sites in Canada. National Fire Protection Association (NFPA) Standard 557 proposes that a fire load survey must be conducted by either the weighing method or the inventory method or a combination of both. The combination method results in the most accurate values for fire loads. An updated CANDU Fire PRA model is demonstrated in this paper that includes the fuel survey in all Canadian CANDU stations. A qualitative screening step for the CANDU fire PRA is illustrated in this paper to include any fire events that can damage any part of the emergency power supply in addition to FSSA cables.

Keywords: fire safety, CANDU, nuclear, fuel densities, FDS, qualitative analysis, fire probabilistic risk assessment

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Authors: E. Rama Devi Jothilingam

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Diabetes mellitus is now one of the most common non communicable diseases globally. India leads the world with largest number of diabetic subjects earning the title "diabetes capital of the world". In order to reduce the mortality rate, a fuzzy expert system is designed to predict the severity of cardiac and renal problems of diabetic patients using fuzzy logic. Since uncertainty is inherent in medicine, fuzzy logic is used in this research work to remove the inherent fuzziness of linguistic concepts and uncertain status in diabetes mellitus which is the prime cause for the cardiac arrest and renal failure. In this work, the controllable risk factors "blood sugar, insulin, ketones, lipids, obesity, blood pressure and protein/creatinine ratio" are considered as input parameters and the "the stages of cardiac" (SOC)" and the stages of renal" (SORD) are considered as the output parameters. The triangular membership functions are used to model the input and output parameters. The rule base is constructed for the proposed expert system based on the knowledge from the medical experts. Mamdani inference engine is used to infer the information based on the rule base to take major decision in diagnosis. Mean of maximum is used to get a non fuzzy control action that best represent possibility distribution of an inferred fuzzy control action. The proposed system also classifies the patients with high risk and low risk using fuzzy c means clustering techniques so that the patients with high risk are treated immediately. The system is validated with Matlab and is used as a tracking system with accuracy and robustness.

Keywords: Diabetes mellitus, fuzzy expert system, Mamdani, MATLAB

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Authors: Ahmed Sami Hammami, Mohamed Jellazi

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Background: The aim of the study is to evaluate the magnitude of different psychological outcomes among Tunisian health care professionals (HCP) during the COVID-19 pandemic and to identify the associated factors. Methods: HCP completed a cross-sectional questionnaire from April 4th to April, 28th 2020. The survey collected demographic information, factors that may interfere with the psychological outcomes, behavior changes and mental health measurements. The latter was assessed through 3 scales; the 7-item questions Insomnia Severity Index, the 2-item Patient Health Questionnaire and the 2-item Generalized Anxiety Disorder. Multivariable logistic regression was conducted to identify factors associated with psychological outcomes. Results: A total of 503 HCP successfully completed the survey; among those, n=493 consented to enroll in the study, 411 [83.4%] were physicians, 323 [64.2%] were women and 271 [55%] had a second-line working position. A significant proportion of HCP had anxiety 35.7%, depression 35.1% and insomnia 23.7%. Females, those with psychiatric history and those using public transport exhibited the highest proportions for overall symptoms compared to other groups e.g., depression among females vs. males: 44,9% vs. 18,2%, P=0.00. Those with a previous medical history and nurses, had more anxiety and insomnia compared to other groups e.g. anxiety among nurses vs. interns/residents vs. attending 45,1% vs 36,1% vs 27,5%; p=0.04. Multivariable logistic regression showed that female gender was a risk factor for all psychological outcomes e.g. female sex increased the odds of anxiety by 2.86; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1, 78-4, 60; P=0.00, whereas having a psychiatric history was a risk factor for both anxiety and insomnia. (e.g. for insomnia OR=2,86; 95% [CI], 1,78-4,60; P=0.00), Having protective equipment was associated with lower risk for depression (OR=0,41; 95% CI, 0,27-0,62; P=0.00) and anxiety. Physical activity was also protective against depression and anxiety (OR=0,41, 95% CI, 0,25-0,67, P=0.00). Conclusion: Psychological symptoms are usually undervalued among HCP, though the COVID-19 pandemic played a major role in exacerbating this burden. Prompt psychological support should be endorsed and simple measures such as physical activity and ensuring the necessary protection are paramount to improve mental health outcomes and the quality of care provided to patients.

Keywords: COVID-19 pandemic, health care professionals, mental health, protective factors, psychological symptoms, risk factors

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Authors: Z. Giagkazoglou, D. Loukovitis, C. Gubili, A. Imsiridou

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Along with the increase in human population, demand for seafood has increased. Despite the strict labeling regulations that exist for most marketed species in the European Union, seafood substitution remains a persistent global issue. Food fraud occurs when food products are traded in a false or misleading way. Mislabeling occurs when one species is substituted and traded under the name of another, and it can be intentional or unintentional. Crustaceans are one of the most regularly consumed seafood in Greece. Shrimps, prawns, lobsters, crayfish, and crabs are considered a delicacy and can be encountered in a variety of market presentations (fresh, frozen, pre-cooked, peeled, etc.). With most of the external traits removed, products as such are susceptible to species substitution. DNA barcoding has proven to be the most accurate method for the detection of fraudulent seafood products. To our best knowledge, the DNA barcoding methodology is used for the first time in Greece, in order to investigate the labeling practices for crustacean products available in the market. A total of 100 tissue samples were collected from various retailers and markets across four Greek cities. In an effort to cover the highest range of products possible, different market presentations were targeted (fresh, frozen and cooked). Genomic DNA was extracted using the DNeasy Blood & Tissue Kit, according to the manufacturer's instructions. The mitochondrial gene selected as the target region of the analysis was the cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI). PCR products were purified and sequenced using an ABI 3500 Genetic Analyzer. Sequences were manually checked and edited using BioEdit software and compared against the ones available in GenBank and BOLD databases. Statistical analyses were conducted in R and PAST software. For most samples, COI amplification was successful, and species-level identification was possible. The preliminary results estimate moderate mislabeling rates (25%) in the identified samples. Mislabeling was most commonly detected in fresh products, with 50% of the samples in this category labeled incorrectly. Overall, the mislabeling rates detected by our study probably relate to some degree of unintentional misidentification, and lack of knowledge surrounding the legal designations by both retailers and consumers. For some species of crustaceans (i.e. Squila mantis) the mislabeling appears to be also affected by the local labeling practices. Across Greece, S. mantis is sold in the market under two common names, but only one is recognized by the country's legislation, and therefore any mislabeling is probably not profit-motivated. However, the substitution of the speckled shrimp (Metapenaus monoceros) for the distinct, giant river prawn (Macrobranchium rosenbergii), is a clear example of deliberate fraudulent substitution, aiming for profit. To our best knowledge, no scientific study investigating substitution and mislabeling rates in crustaceans has been conducted in Greece. For a better understanding of Greece's seafood market, similar DNA barcoding studies in other regions with increased touristic importance (e.g., the Greek islands) should be conducted. Regardless, the expansion of the list of species-specific designations for crustaceans in the country is advised.

Keywords: COI gene, food fraud, labelling control, molecular identification

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Authors: Shimaa Mahmoud Ali Ahmed, Boshra Tawfek El-Shreef

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Sustainable development has become an important concern worldwide, and climate change has become a global threat. Some of these affect how we approach environmental issues — and how we should approach them. Environmental aspects have an important impact on the built environment, that’s why knowledge about Green Building and Green Construction become a vital dimension of urban sustainable development to face the challenges of climate change. There are several levels of green buildings, from energy-efficient lighting to 100% eco-friendly construction; the concept of green buildings in Egypt is still a rare occurrence, with the concept being relatively new to the market. There are several projects on the ground that currently employing sustainable and green solutions to some extent, some of them achieve a limit of success and others fail to employ the new solutions. The market and the cost as well, are great factors. From the last century, green architecture and environmental sustainability become a famous trend that all the researchers like to follow. Nowadays, the trend towards green has shifted to housing and real estate projects. While the environmental aspects are the key to achieve green buildings, the economic benefits, and the market forces are considered as big challenges. The paper assumes that some appropriate environmental treatments could be added to the applied prototype of the governmental social housing projects in Egypt to achieve better environmental solutions. The aim of the research is to get housing projects in Egypt closer to the track of sustainable and green buildings, through making a local future proposal to be integrated into the current policies. The proposed model is based upon adding some appropriate, cheap environmental modifications to the prototype of the Ministry of Housing, Infrastructure, and New Urban Communities. The research is based on an analytical, comparative analytical, and inductive approach to study and analyze the housing projects in Egypt and the possibilities of integrating green techniques into it.

Keywords: green buildings, urban sustainability, housing projects, sustainable development goals, Egypt 2030

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Authors: Syahira Ibrahim, Herlina Abdul Rahim

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The amylose content is an essential element in determining the texture and taste of rice grains. This paper evaluates the use of VIS-SWNIRS in estimating the amylose content for seven varieties of rice grains available in the Malaysian market. Each type consists of 30 samples and all the samples are scanned using the spectroscopy to obtain a range of values between 680-1000nm. The Savitzky-Golay (SG) smoothing filter is applied to each sample’s data before the Principal Component Regression (PCR) technique is used to examine the data and produce a single value for each sample. This value is then compared with reference values obtained from the standard iodine colorimetric test in terms of its coefficient of determination, R2. Results show that this technique produced low R2 values of less than 0.50. In order to improve the result, the range should include a wavelength range of 1100-2500nm and the number of samples processed should also be increased.

Keywords: amylose content, diffuse reflectance, Malaysia rice grain, principal component regression (PCR), Visible and Shortwave near-infrared spectroscopy (VIS-SWNIRS)

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Authors: Nadheer A. Shalash, Abu Zaharin Bin Ahmad

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Technological developments in industrial innovations have currently been related to interconnected system assistance and distribution networks. This important in order to enable an electrical load to continue receive power in the event of disconnection of load from the main power grid. This paper represents a method for reliability assessment of interconnected power systems based. The multi-agent system consists of four agents. The first agent was the generator agent to using as connected the generator to the grid depending on the state of the reserve margin and the load demand. The second was a load agent is that located at the load. Meanwhile, the third is so-called "the reverse margin agent" that to limit the reserve margin between 0-25% depend on the load and the unit size generator. In the end, calculation reliability Agent can be calculate expected energy not supplied (EENS), loss of load expectation (LOLE) and the effecting of tie line capacity to determine the risk levels Roy Billinton Test System (RBTS) can use to evaluated the reliability indices by using the developed JADE package. The results estimated of the reliability interconnection power systems presented in this paper. The overall reliability of power system can be improved. Thus, the market becomes more concentrated against demand increasing and the generation units were operating in relation to reliability indices.

Keywords: reliability indices, load expectation, reserve margin, daily load, probability, multi-agent system

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Authors: Louise Moles, Steve Riley, Sarah D. Lichenstein, Marzieh Babaeianjelodar, Robert Kohler, Annie Cheng, Corey Horien Abigail Greene, Wenjing Luo, Jonathan Ahern, Bohan Xu, Yize Zhao, Chun Chieh Fan, R. Todd Constable, Sarah W. Yip

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Background: Risks for depression are myriad and include both genetic and brain-based factors. However, relationships between these systems are poorly understood, limiting understanding of disease etiology, particularly at the developmental level. Methods: We use a data-driven machine learning approach connectome-based predictive modeling (CPM) to identify functional connectivity signatures associated with polygenic risk scores for depression (DEP-PRS) among youth from the Adolescent Brain and Cognitive Development (ABCD) study across diverse brain states, i.e., during resting state, during affective working memory, during response inhibition, during reward processing. Results: Using 10-fold cross-validation with 100 iterations and permutation testing, CPM identified connectivity signatures of DEP-PRS across all examined brain states (rho’s=0.20-0.27, p’s<.001). Across brain states, DEP-PRS was positively predicted by increased connectivity between frontoparietal and salience networks, increased motor-sensory network connectivity, decreased salience to subcortical connectivity, and decreased subcortical to motor-sensory connectivity. Subsampling analyses demonstrated that model accuracies were robust across random subsamples of N’s=1,000, N’s=500, and N’s=250 but became unstable at N’s=100. Conclusions: These data, for the first time, identify neural networks of polygenic depression risk in a large sample of youth before the onset of significant clinical impairment. Identified networks may be considered potential treatment targets or vulnerability markers for depression risk.

Keywords: genetics, functional connectivity, pre-adolescents, depression

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Authors: Huang Yueh Chen, Sheng Ang Shen

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Purpose: Sexual assault has always been a highly anticipated crime in Taiwan. People assume that the career of sexual offenders tends to be highly specialized. This study hopes to analyze the crime career and risk factors of offenders by means of another classification. Methods: A total of 145 sexual offenders were sentenced on the parole or expiration date from 2009 to 2011, through analysis of official existing documents such as ‘Re-infringement risk assessment report’ and ‘case assessment report’. Results: The section ‘Various Types of Crimes ‘ of criminal career is analyzed. The highest number of ‘ versatile sexual offender’ followed by ‘adult sexual offender’ is about 2.5, representing more than 1.5 kinds of non-sex crimes besides sexual crimes. Different specialized sexual offenders have had extensive experience in the ‘Sexual Assault Experiences in Children and School’, ‘Static 99 Levels’, ‘Pre-Commuted Substance Use’, ‘Excited Deviant Sexual Behavior’, ‘Various Types of Crimes,’ and ‘Sexual Crime in Forerunner’ , ‘Type of Index Crime’ and other projects to achieve significant differences. Conclusions: Resources continue to be devoted to specialized offenders, the character of first-time sexual offender depends on further research and makes the public aware of the different assumptions of diversified offenders from traditional professional offenses that reduce unnecessary panic in society.

Keywords: versatile sexual offender, specialized sexual offender, criminal career, risk factor

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Authors: Magdi Elmessiry, Adel Elmessiry

Abstract:

The fashion industry represents a significant portion of the global gross domestic product, however, it is plagued by cheap imitators that infringe on the trademarks which destroys the fashion industry's hard work and investment. While eventually the copycats would be found and stopped, the damage has already been done, sales are missed and direct and indirect jobs are lost. The infringer thrives on two main facts: the time it takes to discover them and the lack of tracking technologies that can help the consumer distinguish them. Blockchain technology is a new emerging technology that provides a distributed encrypted immutable and fault resistant ledger. Blockchain presents a ripe technology to resolve the infringement epidemic facing the fashion industry. The significance of the study is that a new approach leveraging the state of the art blockchain technology coupled with artificial intelligence is used to create a framework addressing the fashion infringement problem. It transforms the current focus on legal enforcement, which is difficult at best, to consumer awareness that is far more effective. The framework, Crypto CopyCat, creates an immutable digital asset representing the actual product to empower the customer with a near real time query system. This combination emphasizes the consumer's awareness and appreciation of the product's authenticity, while provides real time feedback to the producer regarding the fake replicas. The main findings of this study are that implementing this approach can delay the fake product penetration of the original product market, thus allowing the original product the time to take advantage of the market. The shift in the fake adoption results in reduced returns, which impedes the copycat market and moves the emphasis to the original product innovation.

Keywords: fashion, infringement, blockchain, artificial intelligence, textiles supply chain

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Authors: Zahra Tolou-Ghamari

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Introduction: After allogeneic organ transplantation, in order to lower the rate of rejectiontacrolimus is given. In fact, infection is reported as the most complication of tacrolimus that might be associated with higher susceptibility by its’ long term use. Aim: This study aims to review the association between the occurrence of infections after organ transplantation following the administration of tacrolims. Materials and Methods: Scientific literature on the pharmacotherapy of tacrolimus after organ transplantation and infections were searched using PUBMED.Gov (https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/), Web of Science, and Scopus. Results: In order to prevent acute and chronic rejection, the potent immunosuppressive drug tacrolimus administered as a calcineurin inhibitor after organ transplantation. Its’ most frequent infectious complication is reported as urinary tract infection. Virulent strain of recombinant Literiamonocytogenes, in addition to an increase in bacterial burden in the liver and spleen tissues, was reported in the animal experimental study. The consequence of aggressive events and recipients total area under the cureve exposure to immunosuppressive could be as considered as surrogate markers for individual infection’s risk evaluation. Conclusion: Transplant surgery and duration of hospital stay could determinate the risk of infection during the first month of organ transplantation. Despite administration of antiviral drugs, opportunistic infection such as cytomegalovirus could increase the risk of infection during month 1 to year after transplantation.

Keywords: transplant, infection, tacrolimus, kidney

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Authors: Fiona Armstrong, David Gaul, Michael Barrett, Lorraine D'Arcy

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Playing is an instinctive and universal human behavior, is a child’s way of learning and an outlet for their innate need of activity. Risky play can be defined as any play that is thrilling or exciting involving the risk of injury. The benefits of risky play have been acknowledged as helping children to explore and conquer fears, develop confidence, reduce anxiety, and develop risk-management skills. Studies indicate that children learn sound judgment by assessing and confronting risks in relation to their own capabilities through exposure to carefully managed play experiences. Risky play has been associated with danger and increased risk of injury, with families focusing on risk aversion and protecting children from the risks inherent in the modern world. Despite children needing cultural, social, emotional, physical, and geographical space to play, the opportunity for children to play is diminishing. Aim: This study explores play behaviors and risky play in an Irish context by investigating parental attitudes to risky play. Methodology: This is a mixed methods study involving the State of Play survey and semi-structured interviews exploring parental attitudes to risky play. Data will be quantitatively analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics using IBM SPSS and qualitatively analyzed via thematic analysis using NVivo. Conclusion: The information gathered could advise stakeholders regarding the creation and provision of developmentally appropriate, challenging, stimulating, adaptable, accessible, and safe as necessary outdoor play areas. This research can inform parents, planners, architects, and authorities involved in creating environments for play and contribute to policy development.

Keywords: child development, parental attitudes, play opportunities, risky play

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Authors: Maria C. Proença, Maria T. Rebelo, Marília Antunes, Maria J. Alves, Hugo Osório, Sofia Cunha, João Casaca

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Using a geographic information system (GIS), the relations between a georeferenced data set of Culex pipiens sl. mosquitoes collected in Portugal mainland during seven years (2006-2012) and meteorological and physiographic parameters such as: air relative humidity, air temperature (minima, maxima and mean daily temperatures), daily total rainfall, altitude, land use/land cover and proximity to water bodies are evaluated. Focus is on the mosquito females; the characterization of its habitat is the key for the planning of chirurgical non-aggressive prophylactic countermeasures to avoid ambient degradation. The GIS allow for the spatial determination of the zones were the mosquito mean captures has been above average; using the meteorological values at these coordinates, the limits of each parameter are identified/computed. The meteorological parameters measured at the net of weather stations all over the country are averaged by month and interpolated to produce raster maps that can be segmented according to the thresholds obtained for each parameter. The intersection of the maps obtained for each month show the evolution of the area favorable to the species through the mosquito season, which is from May to October at these latitudes. In parallel, mean and above average captures were related to the physiographic parameters. Three levels of risk could be identified for each parameter, using above average captures as an index. The results were applied to the suitability meteorological maps of each month. The Culex pipiens critical niche is delimited, reflecting the critical areas and the level of risk for transmission of the pathogens to which they are competent vectors (West Nile virus, iridoviruses, rheoviruses and parvoviruses).

Keywords: Culex pipiens, ecological niche, risk assessment, risk management

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Authors: Hui-Chi Huang, Su-Ju Yang, Ching-Wei Lin, Jui-Yao Tsai, Liang-Yiang

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Background: Evidence exists that pneumonia is a frequently encountered complication after stroke which is associated with a higher rate of mortality and increased long-term disability Purpose: To determine the predictors associated with the risk of one-year disability in acute stroke. Methods: Data for this longitudinal follow-up study were extracted from a tertiary referral medical center’s stroke registry database in Northern Taipei. Eligible patients with acute stroke admitted to the hospital and completed a one-year follow up were recruited for analysis. Favorable outcome was defined as a modified Rankin Scale score ≤ 2. SAS version 9.2 was used for the multivariable regression analyses to examine the factors correlated with the one-year disability in stroke patients. Results: From January 2012 to December 2013, a total of 1373 (mean age: 70.49±15.4 years, 913(66.5%) males) consecutively administered acute stroke patients were recruited. Overall, the rate of one-year disability was 37.20%(404/1086) in those without post-stroke pneumonia. It increased to 82.93 %(238/287) in patients developed post-stroke pneumonia. Factors associated with increased risk of disability were age ≧ 75(OR= 4.845, p<.0001), female /gender (OR=1.568, p =.0062), previous stroke (OR= 1.868, p = <. 0001) ,dementia (OR= 2.872, p =.0047), ventilator use (OR= 4.653, p <. 0001),age ≧ 75 /pneumonia (OR=1.236, p <. 0001) , ICU admission (OR=3.314, p <.0001) , nasogastric tube insertion (OR= 4.28, p <.0001), speech therapy (OR= 1.79, p =.0142), urinary tract infection (OR= 1.865, p =.0018), estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR > 60 )(OR= 0.525, p= .0029), Admission NIHSS >11 (OR= 2.101, p = .0099), Length of hospitalization > 30(d) (OR= 5.182, p <.0001). Conclusion: Older age, severe neurological deficit, complications, rehabilitation intervention, length of hospitalization >30(d), and cognitive impairment were significantly associated with Post-stroke functional impairment, especially those with post-stroke pneumonia. These findings could open new avenues in the management of stroke patients.

Keywords: stroke, risk, pneumonia, disability

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Authors: Kye Gilder, Kevin Shan, Amy Halseth, Steve Smith

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This study assessed the effect of prolonged-release naltrexone 32 mg/bupropion 360 mg (NB) on cardiovascular (CV) events in overweight/obese participants at elevated CV risk. Participants must lose ≥2% body weight at 16 wks, without a sustained increase in blood pressure, to continue drug. Only serious adverse events (SAE) and adverse events leading to discontinuation of study drug (AELDSD) were collected. The study was terminated early after second interim analysis with 50% of all CV events. Data on CV endpoints has been published. Current analyses focused on AEs in participants on antidepressants at baseline, as these individuals were excluded from Phase 3 trials. Intent-to-treat (ITT) population (placebo [PBO] N=4450, NB N=4455) was 54.5% female, 83.5% white, mean age of 61 yrs, mean BMI 37.3 kg/m2, 22.8% with a history of depression, 23.1% on antidepressants, including 15.4% on an SSRI. SAEs in participants receiving antidepressants was similar between NB (10.7%) and PBO (9.9%) and also similar to overall population (9.5% NB, 8.1% PBO). SAEs in those on SSRIs were similar, 10.1% NB and PBO 9.4%. For those on SSRIs or other antidepressants, AELDSDs were similar to overall population and were primarily GI disorders. Obesity increases the risk of developing depression. For participants taking NB and antidepressants, including SSRIs, there is a similar AE profile as the overall population and data revealed no evidence of an additional health risk with combined use.

Keywords: antidepressant, Contrave, Mysimba, obesity, pharmacotherapy

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Authors: Tzu-Ting Hu, Jung-Der Wang, Ming-Yeng Lin, Jin-Luh Chen, Perng-Jy Tsai

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The vinyl chloride monomer (VCM) has been classified as group 1 (human) carcinogen by the IARC. Workers exposed to VCM are known associated with the development of the liver cancer and hence might cause economical and health losses. Particularly, for those work for the petrochemical industry have been seriously concerned in the environmental and occupational health field. Considering assessing workers’ health risks and their resultant economical and health losses requires the establishment of long-term VCM exposure data for any similar exposure group (SEG) of interest, the development of suitable technologies has become an urgent and important issue. In the present study, VCM exposures for petrochemical industry workers were determined firstly based on the database of the 'Workplace Environmental Monitoring Information Systems (WEMIS)' provided by Taiwan OSHA. Considering the existence of miss data, the reconstruction of historical exposure techniques were then used for completing the long-term exposure data for SEGs with routine operations. For SEGs with non-routine operations, exposure modeling techniques, together with their time/activity records, were adopted for determining their long-term exposure concentrations. The Bayesian decision analysis (BDA) was adopted for conducting exposure and health risk assessments for any given SEG in the petrochemical industry. The resultant excessive cancer risk was then used to determine the corresponding loss of quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE). Results show that low average concentrations can be found for SEGs with routine operations (e.g., VCM rectification 0.0973 ppm, polymerization 0.306 ppm, reaction tank 0.33 ppm, VCM recovery 1.4 ppm, control room 0.14 ppm, VCM storage tanks 0.095 ppm and wastewater treatment 0.390 ppm), and the above values were much lower than that of the permissible exposure limit (PEL; 3 ppm) of VCM promulgated in Taiwan. For non-routine workers, though their high exposure concentrations, their low exposure time and frequencies result in low corresponding health risks. Through the consideration of exposure assessment results, health risk assessment results, and QALE results simultaneously, it is concluded that the proposed method was useful for prioritizing SEGs for conducting exposure abatement measurements. Particularly, the obtained QALE results further indicate the importance of reducing workers’ VCM exposures, though their exposures were low as in comparison with the PEL and the acceptable health risk.

Keywords: exposure assessment, health risk assessment, petrochemical industry, quality-adjusted life years, vinyl chloride monomer

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Authors: K. E. Daryani, H. Mohamad

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Uncertainties in the geo-structure analysis and design have a significant impact on the safety of slopes. Traditionally, uncertainties in the geotechnical design are addressed by incorporating a conservative factor of safety in the analytical model. In this paper, a risk-based approach is adopted to assess the influence of the geotechnical variable uncertainties on the stability of infinite slopes in cohesionless soils using the “partial factor of safety on shear strength” approach as stated in Eurocode 7. Analyses conducted using Monte Carlo simulation show that the same partial factor can have very different levels of risk depending on the degree of uncertainty of the mean values of the soil friction angle and void ratio.

Keywords: Safety, Probability of Failure, Reliability, Infinite Slopes, Sand.

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Authors: Alimshan Faizulayev, Eralp Bektas, Abdul Ghafar Ismail, Bezhan Rustamov

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This paper performs empirical analysis on determinants of profitability in Islamic and Conventional Banks. The main focus of this study is to evaluate and measure of financial performance of Islamic banking firms operating in Egypt, Iran, Malaysia, Pakistan, Turkey, UAE in contrast to Conventional ones in those countries. To evaluate empirically performance of the banks, various financial ratios are employed. We measure performance in terms of liquidity, profitability, solvency, and efficiency. In this work, t-test, F-test, and OLS analysis are used to make hypothesis tests. Our findings reveal that there are similarities and differences in profitability determinants of Islamic and Conventional banking firms. The cost to revenue ratio has inverse relationship with profitability indicators in both banking systems. However, there are differences in financial performances between Conventional Banks and Islamic banks which are found in overall picture of all banks in terms of net income margin.

Keywords: Islamic banking, conventional banking, GDP growth, emerging market economies

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