Search results for: forces estimation

Authors: M. Ezati Kooshki, A. Abbaszadeh Shahri

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A number of devices used to control seismic structures have been developed during the past decades. One of the effective ways to reduce seismic forces transmitted to the buildings is through the base isolation systems, but the use of these devices is currently limited to large and expensive buildings. This study was an attempt to introduce an effective and low cost way to protect of structures against grand motions by a semi base isolation system. In this new way, structures were not completely decoupled of bases and the natural frequency of structures was changed due to earthquake by changing the horizontal stiffness; therefore, ground excitation energy was dissipated before entering the structures. For analyzing the dynamic behavior, the new method used finite element software (ABAQUS 6-10-1). This investigation introduced a new package of semi base isolation devices with a new material constitutive, but common in automobile industries, seeking to evaluate the effects of additional new devices on the seismic response when compared with structures without additional devises for different ground motions. The proposed semi base isolation devices were applied to a one story frame and the time history analysis was conducted on the record of Kobe earthquake (1995). The results showed that the efficiency reduced the floor acceleration and displacement, as well as velocity.

Keywords: semi base isolation system, finite element, natural frequency, horizontal stiffness

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Authors: Afsana Afsar Tuly

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The Rohingyas are a group of minority Muslimsin Myanmar who witnessed series of persecution, violence, and torture from Burmese military since 1948. In 2017, around 700,000 Rohingyas fled to the neighboring country Bangladesh and took shelter as refugees after facing clashes with Myanmar security forces. The number increased to 1.8 million in 2020, creating one of the largest refugee crises of recent times. This research focuses on the vulnerability and poverty faced by Rohingyas in refugee camps and how thelack of long-term solution and silence from international communitycan pose national security threat and increasing Islamic extremism in Bangladesh. Islamic religious and terrorist groups have used the Rohingyas position as stateless people to influence them into speaking against the secular government of Bangladesh. There has been increasing crime rates and formation of different rebel groups in refugee camps, causing clashes with Bangladeshi police and authority. Human trafficking, illegal drug dealings, prostitution, and other illicit activities have continuously gone up in the southeastern part of Bangladesh. Some economic, social, and environmental factors are studied and analyzed to show the change in Bangladesh between 2017 and 2020.

Keywords: national security threat, islamic extremism, rohingya refugees, refugee studies, Bangladesh, myanmar

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Authors: A.I. Adeyemo

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Ikogosi warm spring results from a complex mechanical and chemical forces that generates internal heat in the rocks forming a warm and cold water at the same geographical location at the same time. From time immemorial, the local community had thought, it to be the work of a deity, and they were worshipping the spring. This complex phenomenon has been a source of tourist attraction to both local and international tourists over the years. 450 copies of a structured questionnaire were given out, and a total of 500 respondents were interviewed. The result showed that ikogosi warm spring impacts the community positively by providing employment to the teeming youths, and it provides income to traders. The result shows that 66% of the respondents confirmed that it increased their income and that transportation business increased more than 73%.the level of enlightenment and socialization increased greatly in the community. However, it also impacted the community negatively as it increased crime rates such as stealing, kidnapping, prostitution, and unwanted pregnancy among the secondary school girls and the other teenagers. Generally, 50% of the respondents reported that tourism in the warm spring results in insecurity in the community. IT also increased environmental problems such as noise and waste pollutions; the continuous movement on the land results in soil compartment leading to erosion, and leaching, which also results in loss of soil fertility. It was concluded that if the potentials of the spring are fully tapped, it will be a good avenue for income generation to the country.

Keywords: community, Ikogosi, revenue, warm spring

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Authors: Rym Taktak, Achwek Elghazel, Jamel Bouaziz

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In the present work, we explored the potential of tribological behavior of tricalcium phosphate-Fluorapatite (β Tcp-Fap) bioceramic which has attracted considerable attention for orthopedics and dental applications. The approximate representatives Fap-βTcp were respectively [{13.26 wt%, 86.74 wt%} {19.9 wt%, 80.1 wt%},{ 26.52 wt%, 73.48 wt%}, {33.16 wt%, 66.84 wt%} and {40 wt%, 60 wt%}. The effects of Fluorapatite additives on friction and wear behavior were studied and discussed. The wear test was conducted using pion-disk tribometer at room temperature under dry condition using a constant sliding speed of 0,063 m/s, and three loads 3, 5 and 8 N. The wear rate and friction coefficient of β Tcp with different additive amounts were compared. An Alumina ball specimens were used as the pin and flat surface β Tcp-Fap specimens as the antagonist counterface. The results show a huge difference between the wear rate of β TCP samples and the other β TCP-Fap composites for all normal forces applied. This result shows the beneficial effect of fluorapatite on the tribological behavior of the β TCP. Moreover, we note that β Tcp-26% Fap specimens exhibit, under dry condition, the lower friction coefficient and the smaller wear rate than other biocomposites. Thereby, the friction and wear behavior is influenced by the addition of fluorapatite, the applied normal force, and the sliding velocity. To extend the understanding of the wear process, the surface topography of β Tcp-26% Fap specimens and the wear track obtained during the wear tests were studied using a surface profilometer, optical microscopy, and scanning electron microscopy.

Keywords: alumina, bioceramic, friction and wear test, tricalcium phosphate

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Authors: M. Akhlaque Ahmed, Maliha Afshan, Adeel Tahir

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Global and diffuse solar radiation studies have been carried out for the Capital city of Pakistan, Islamabad ( latitude 330 43’N and Longitude 370 71’E) to assess the solar potential of the area. The global and diffuse solar radiation were carried out using sunshine hour data for the above-mentioned area. Monthly total solar radiation is calculated through regression constants a and b through declination angle of the sun and sunshine hours and KT that is cloudiness index are used to calculate the diffuse solar radiation. Result obtained shows variation in the direct and diffuse component of solar radiation in summer and winter months for Islamabad. Diffuse solar radiation was found maximum in July, i.e., 32% whereas direct or beam radiation was found to be high in April to June, i.e., 73%. During July, August, and December, the sky was found cloudy. From the result, it appears that with the exception of monsoon month July and August the solar energy can be utilized very efficiently throughout the year in Islamabad.

Keywords: global radiation, Islamabad, diffuse radiation, sky condition, sunshine hour

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Authors: Zhenyu Yang, Qiunan Chen, Xiaocheng Huang

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Reliable prediction of tunnel collapse remains a prominent challenge in the field of civil engineering. In this study, leveraging the nonlinear Hoek-Brown failure criterion and the upper-bound theorem, an analytical solution for the collapse surface of shallowly buried circular tunnels was derived, taking into account the coupled effects of surface loads and pore water pressures. Initially, surface loads and pore water pressures were introduced as external force factors, equating the energy dissipation rate to the external force, yielding our objective function. Subsequently, the variational method was employed for optimization, and the outcomes were juxtaposed with previous research findings. Furthermore, we utilized the deduced equation set to systematically analyze the influence of various rock mass parameters on collapse shape and extent. To validate our analytical solutions, a comparison with prior studies was executed. The corroboration underscored the efficacy of our proposed methodology, offering invaluable insights for collapse risk assessment in practical engineering applications.

Keywords: tunnel roof stability, analytical solution, hoek–brown failure criterion, limit analysis

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Authors: Jessica Hemberg, Anna K. Forsman, Johanna Nordmyr

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With a considerable increase in the aging population in the Nordic countries there is a call for a deeper understanding of healthy aging and its underlying mechanisms. The aim of this study is to uncover health and well-being for older adults according to their own views and understand what role the existential dimension play? The study uses a hermeneutical approach. Material was collected through focus group interviews with 18 older adults. The texts were interpreted through hermeneutical reading. The underlying mechanisms of health among older adults are described, illustrating the key prerequisites for health as being in the present. This implies ‘living on the continuums of life and death’ and in this field of forces also ‘living on the continuum of the past and the future’. Important aspects for being in the present was balancing ambivalent emotions, considering existential issues, and being in connectedness. Health for older adults may be understood in the light of the metaphor of taking it one day at a time. Being in the present was emphasized as a health potential for older adults highlighting the existential health dimension. From a societal point of view, this implies that health promotion should focus on highlighting the importance of the existential dimension of health since it holds health-promoting potentials for older adults. Optimal health for older adults requires awareness of one’s attitude to life through being in the present as a basis for a positive and healthy outlook on life.

Keywords: focus group interviews, hermeneutics, life experiences, older adults

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Authors: Seon Soon Choi

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The fatigue crack growth is stochastic because of the fatigue behavior having an uncertainty and a randomness. Therefore, it is necessary to determine the probability distribution of a grown crack size at a specific fatigue crack propagation life for maintenance of structure as well as reliability estimation. The essential purpose of this study is to present the good probability distribution fit for the grown crack size at a specified fatigue life in a rolled magnesium alloy under different specimen thickness conditions. Fatigue crack propagation experiments are carried out in laboratory air under three conditions of specimen thickness using AZ31 to investigate a stochastic crack growth behavior. The goodness-of-fit test for probability distribution of a grown crack size under different specimen thickness conditions is performed by Anderson-Darling test. The effect of a specimen thickness on variability of a grown crack size is also investigated.

Keywords: crack size, fatigue crack propagation, magnesium alloys, probability distribution, specimen thickness

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Authors: D.Mendes, J. Henriques, P. Carvalho, T. Rocha, S. Paredes, R. Cabiddu, R. Trimer, R. Mendes, A. Borghi-Silva, L. Kaminsky, E. Ashley, R. Arena, J. Myers

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The continued exploration of clinically relevant predictive models continues to be an important pursuit. Cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) portends clinical vital information and as such its accurate prediction is of high importance. Therefore, the aim of the current study was to develop a data-driven model, based on computational intelligence techniques and, in particular, clustering approaches, to predict CRF. Two prediction models were implemented and compared: 1) the traditional Wasserman/Hansen Equations; and 2) an interpretable clustering approach. Data used for this analysis were from the 'FRIEND - Fitness Registry and the Importance of Exercise: The National Data Base'; in the present study a subset of 10690 apparently healthy individuals were utilized. The accuracy of the models was performed through the computation of sensitivity, specificity, and geometric mean values. The results show the superiority of the clustering approach in the accurate estimation of CRF (i.e., maximal oxygen consumption).

Keywords: cardiorespiratory fitness, data-driven models, knowledge extraction, machine learning

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Authors: Erim Koyun

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This paper aim to construct a mathematical model for Underwater vehicles under load variation test conditions. Propeller effects on underwater vehicle are investigated. Body with counter rotating propeller model is analyzed by CFD methods, thus forces and moment are obtained. Propeller effects of vehicle’s hydrodynamic performance under load variation conditions will be investigated. Additionally, pressure contour is examined for differences between different load conditions. Axial force equation is established using hydrodynamic coefficients, which contains resistance, thrust, and additional coefficients occurs due to load variations. Additional coefficients helps to express completely axial force on underwater vehicle. When the vehicle accelerates, additional force occurs besides thrust force increment. This is propeller effect on the body. Hence, mathematical model cover this effect. For CFD analysis, the incompressible, three-dimensional, and unsteady Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes equations will be used Numerical results is verified with experimental results for verification. The overall goal of this study is to present complementary mathematical model for body with counter rotating propeller.

Keywords: counter rotating propeller, CFD, hydrodynamic mathematic model, hydrodynamics analysis, thrust deduction

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Authors: Ahmad Sharif Ahmadi, Yoshitaka Kajita

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With massive population expansion and fast economic development in last decade, urban land has increasingly expanded and formed high informal development territory in Kabul city. This paper investigates integrated urbanization trends in Kabul city since the formation of the basic structure of the present city using GIS and remote sensing. This study explores the spatial and temporal difference of urban land expansion and land use categories among different time intervals, 1964-1978 and 1978-2008 from 1964 to 2008 in Kabul city. Furthermore, the goal of this paper is to understand the extent of urban land expansion and the factors driving urban land expansion in Kabul city. Many factors like population expansion, the return of refugees from neighboring countries and significant economic growth of the city affected urban land expansion. Across all the study area urban land expansion rate, population expansion rate and economic growth rate have been compared to analyze the relationship of driving forces with urban land expansion. Based on urban land change data detected by interpreting land use maps, it was found that in the entire study area the urban territory has been expanded by 14 times between 1964 and 2008.

Keywords: GIS, Kabul city, land use, urban land expansion, urbanization

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Authors: Hyon I. Paek, Sang Rim Kim, Hyon A. Ryu

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In functional linear regression, one typical problem is to reduce dimension. Compared with multivariate linear regression, functional linear regression is regarded as an infinite-dimensional case, and the main task is to reduce dimensions of functional response and functional predictors. One common approach is to adapt functional principal component analysis (FPCA) on functional predictors and then use a few leading functional principal components (FPC) to predict the functional model. The leading FPCs estimated by the typical FPCA explain a major variation of the functional predictor, but these leading FPCs may not be mostly correlated with the functional response, so they may not be significant in the prediction for response. In this paper, we propose a supervised functional principal component analysis method for a functional response model with FPCs obtained by considering the correlation of the functional response. Our method would have a better prediction accuracy than the typical FPCA method.

Keywords: supervised, functional principal component analysis, functional response, functional linear regression

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Authors: Saleh Alagla, Murya Habbash

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The paper investigates whether the board of directors plays a monitoring role or not in CEO compensation for the UK firms during the eve of the recent financial crisis, 2004-2008. The use of heteroscedastic and autocorrelated error consistent estimation of the panel data shows, surprisingly, that four board characteristics variables are found to play a significant role in increasing the level of CEO compensation. This insightful result would suggest evidence of the managerial power theory in general and the cronyism hypothesis in particular. Moreover, the interesting evidence supporting managerial power perspective is that CEO-Chair duality reduces long-term compensation while increasing short-term compensation, thus suggesting that CEOs are risk averse who prefer short-term compensation to long-term compensation. Finally, consistent with the agency perspective board size is found to increase all compensation variables as expected.

Keywords: corporate governance, CEO compensation, board of directors, internal governance mechanisms, agency theory, managerial power theory, cronyism hypothesis

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Authors: Suniti Suparp, Panuwat Joyklad, Qudeer Hussain

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This is a well-known fact that the actual latera forces due to natural disasters, for example, earthquakes, floods and storms are difficult to predict accurately. Among these natural disasters, so far, the highest amount of deaths and injuries have been recorded for the case of earthquakes all around the world. Therefore, there is always an urgent need to establish suitable strengthening methods for existing concrete and steel structures. This paper is investigating the structural performance of square concrete columns strengthened using low cost and easily available steel clamps. The salient features of these steel clamps are comparatively low cost, easy availability and ease of installation. To achieve research objectives, a large-scale experimental program was established in which a total number of 12 square concrete columns were constructed and tested under pure axial compression. Three square concrete columns were tested without any steel lamps to serve as a reference specimen. Whereas, remaining concrete columns were externally strengthened using steel clamps. The steel clamps were installed at a different spacing to investigate the best configuration of the steel clamps. The experimental results indicate that steel clamps are very effective in altering the structural performance of the square concrete columns. The square concrete columns externally strengthened using steel clamps demonstrate higher load carrying capacity and ductility as compared with the control specimens.

Keywords: concrete, strength, ductility, pre-stressed, steel, clamps, axial compression, columns, stress and strain

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Authors: Yagnik Patel

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This paper will analyze and explain two main objectives. First, it will examine the emergence of the insurgency in the state of Tripura. The State of Tripura was facing the full blow of insurgency problem since 1978 after the formation of Tripura National Volunteers (TNV). But, the roots of this insurgency were found even before 1978. This study will analyze the roots and trajectory of insurgency in the Tripura. Second, it will examine the role played by the police in counterinsurgency in the State of Tripura. Even though state police are mandated for the maintenance of the law and order and public order (like every police), the state police of Tripura have played a significant role in curbing the insurgency by enhancing their counterinsurgency (COIN) capabilities and re-structuring the new comprehensive COIN doctrine. And by the end of May 2015, the State Government has lifted The Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act (AFSPA) from the State of Tripura, as declaiming of the violence. The fight against the insurgency, usually done by the military or para-military, but nowadays the police organization is also becoming a vital state apparatus. After Punjab police and Andhra Pradesh police, Tripura police have also successfully curbed the insurgency from the state. This was the third time when successful counterinsurgency did by the state police in India. This has shown the importance of the police in the fight against the insurgency. In this regard, this paper will use both quantitative and qualitative research methods for an explanatory case study to analyze and explain the roots, causes and the trajectory of insurgency in the state of Tripura and the role played by the police in COIN in Tripura. Along with this, the paper will also examine the successful ‘Police Model of Tripura’.

Keywords: counterinsurgency, insurgency, police, Tripura state rifles

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Authors: K. Assis, K. P. Chong, A. S. Idris, C. M. Ho

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Oil palm or Elaeis guineensis is considered as the golden crop in Malaysia. But oil palm industry in this country is now facing with the most devastating disease called as Ganoderma Basal Stem Rot disease. The objective of this paper is to analyze the economic loss due to this disease. There were three commercial oil palm sites selected for collecting the required data for economic analysis. Yield parameter used to measure the loss was the total weight of fresh fruit bunch in six months. The predictors include disease severity, change in disease severity, number of infected neighbor palms, age of palm, planting generation, topography, and first order interaction variables. The estimation model of yield loss was identified by using backward elimination based regression method. Diagnostic checking was conducted on the residual of the best yield loss model. The value of mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was used to measure the forecast performance of the model. The best yield loss model was then used to estimate the economic loss by using the current monthly price of fresh fruit bunch at mill gate.

Keywords: ganoderma, oil palm, regression model, yield loss, economic loss

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Authors: Yiyang Su, Jörg Neumann, Jan Wetzlich, Florian Thiel

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Smart grid is a term used to describe the next generation power grid. New challenges such as integration of renewable and decentralized energy sources, the requirement for continuous grid estimation and optimization, as well as the use of two-way flows of energy have been brought to the power gird. In order to achieve efficient, reliable, sustainable, as well as secure delivery of electric power more and more information and communication technologies are used for the monitoring and the control of power grids. Consequently, the need for cybersecurity is dramatically increased and has converged into several standards which will be presented here. These standards for the smart grid must be designed to satisfy both performance and reliability requirements. An in depth investigation of the effect of retrospectively embedded security in existing grids on it’s dynamic behavior is required. Therefore, a retrofitting plan for existing meters is offered, and it’s performance in a test low voltage microgrid is investigated. As a result of this, integration of security measures into measurement architectures of smart grids at the design phase is strongly recommended.

Keywords: cyber security, performance, protocols, security standards, smart grid

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Authors: K. Jagannath, Akhilesh Kotian, S. S. Sharma, Achutha Kini U., P. R. Prabhu

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Boiling process is characterized by the rapid formation of vapour bubbles at the solid–liquid interface (nucleate boiling) with pre-existing vapour or gas pockets. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) is an important tool to study bubble dynamics. In the present study, CFD simulation has been carried out to determine the bubble detachment diameter and its terminal velocity. Volume of fluid method is used to model the bubble and the surrounding by solving single set of momentum equations and tracking the volume fraction of each of the fluids throughout the domain. In the simulation, bubble is generated by allowing water-vapour to enter a cylinder filled with liquid water through an inlet at the bottom. After the bubble is fully formed, the bubble detaches from the surface and rises up during which the bubble accelerates due to the net balance between buoyancy force and viscous drag. Finally when these forces exactly balance each other, it attains a constant terminal velocity. The bubble detachment diameter and the terminal velocity of the bubble are captured by the monitor function provided in FLUENT. The detachment diameter and the terminal velocity obtained is compared with the established results based on the shape of the bubble. A good agreement is obtained between the results obtained from simulation and the equations in comparison with the established results.

Keywords: bubble growth, computational fluid dynamics, detachment diameter, terminal velocity

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Authors: Christian Klettner, Ian Eames, Tristan Robinson

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Tsunami is characterised by their very long time periods and can have devastating consequences when these inundate through built-up coastal regions as in the 2004 Indian Ocean and 2011 Tohoku Tsunami. This work aims to investigate the effect of these long waves on the flow through and around a group of buildings, which are abstracted to circular cylinders. The research approach used in this study was using experiments and numerical simulations. Large-scale experiments were carried out at HR Wallingford. The novelty of these experiments is (I) the number of bodies present (up to 64), (II) the long wavelength of the input waves (80 seconds) and (III) the width of the tank (4m) which gives the unique opportunity to investigate three length scales, namely the diameter of the building, the diameter of the array and the width of the tank. To complement the experiments, dam break flow past the same arrays is investigated using three-dimensional numerical simulations in OpenFOAM. Dam break flow was chosen as it is often used as a surrogate for the tsunami in previous research and is used here as there are well defined initial conditions and high quality previous experimental data for the case of a single cylinder is available. The focus of this work is to better understand the effect of the solid void fraction on the force and flow through and around the array. New qualitative and quantitative diagnostics are developed and tested to analyse the complex coupled interaction between the cylinders.

Keywords: computational fluid dynamics, tsunami, forces, complex geometry

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Authors: Ramiro Gustavo Ramirez Camacho, Waldir De Oliveira, Eraldo Cruz Dos Santos, Edna Raimunda Da Silva, Tania Marie Arispe Angulo, Carlos Eduardo Alves Da Costa, Tânia Cristina Alves Dos Reis

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It presents a preliminary design methodology of an axial fan based on the lift wing theory and the potential vortex hypothesis. The literature considers a study of acoustic and engineering expertise to model a fan with low noise. Axial fans with inadequate intake geometry, often suffer poor condition of the flow at the entrance, varying from velocity profiles spatially asymmetric to swirl floating with respect to time, this produces random forces acting on the blades. This produces broadband gust noise which in most cases triggers the tonal noise. The analysis of the axial flow fan will be conducted for the solution of the Navier-Stokes equations and models of turbulence in steady and transitory (RANS - URANS) 3-D, in order to find an efficient aerodynamic design, with low noise and suitable for industrial installation. Therefore, the process will require the use of computational optimization methods, aerodynamic design methodologies, and numerical methods as CFD- Computational Fluid Dynamics. The objective is the development of the methodology of the construction axial fan, provide of design the geometry of the blade, and evaluate aerodynamic performance

Keywords: Axial fan design, CFD, Preliminary Design, Optimization

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Authors: M. Gangadharappa, M. Ravi Kumar, H. N. Reddappa

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The mechanical properties and morphological analysis of Al6061-Red mud particulate composites were investigated. The compositions of the composite include a matrix of Al6061 and the red mud particles of 53-75 micron size as reinforcement ranging from 0% to 12% at an interval of 2%. Stir casting technique was used to fabricate Al6061-Red mud composites. Density measurement, estimation of percentage porosity, tensile properties, fracture toughness, hardness value, impact energy, percentage elongation and percentage reduction in area. Further, the microstructures and SEM examinations were investigated to characterize the composites produced. The result shows that a uniform dispersion of the red mud particles along the grain boundaries of the Al6061 alloy. The tensile strength and hardness values increases with the addition of Red mud particles, but there is a slight decrease in the impact energy values, values of percentage elongation and percentage reduction in area as the reinforcement increases. From these results of investigation, we concluded that the red mud, an industrial waste can be used to enhance the properties of Al6061 alloy for engineering applications.

Keywords: Al6061, red mud, tensile strength, hardness and microstructures

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Authors: Fabio Oettl, Sebastian Hoerbrand, Tobias Wittmeir, Johannes Schilp

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By combining the additive manufacturing (AM)- process with digital concepts, like the digital twin (DT) or the downsized and basing concept of the digital part file (DPF), the competitiveness of additive manufacturing is enhanced and new use cases like decentral production are enabled. But in literature, one can´t find any quantitative approach for valuing the usage of a DT or DPF in AM. Out of this fact, such an approach will be developed within this paper in order to further promote or dissuade the usage of these concepts. The focus is set on the production as an early lifecycle phase, which means that the AM-production process gets analyzed regarding the potential advantages of using DPF in AM. These advantages are transferred to a monetary value with this approach. By calculating the costs of the DPF, an overall monetary value is a result. Thereon a tool, based on a simulation environment is constructed, where the algorithms are transformed into a program. The results of applying this tool show that an overall value of 20,81 € for the DPF can be realized for one special use case. For the future application of the DPF there is the recommendation to integrate especially sustainable information because out of this, a higher value of the DPF can be expected.

Keywords: additive manufacturing, digital concept costs, digital part file, digital twin, monetary value estimation

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Authors: Ishapathik Das, Sumen Sen, N. Rao Chaganty, Pooja Sengupta

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Dependent multivariate count data occur in several research studies. These data can be modeled by a multivariate Poisson or Negative binomial distribution constructed using copulas. However, when some of the counts are inflated, that is, the number of observations in some cells are much larger than other cells, then the copula based multivariate Poisson (or Negative binomial) distribution may not fit well and it is not an appropriate statistical model for the data. There is a need to modify or adjust the multivariate distribution to account for the inflated frequencies. In this article, we consider the situation where the frequencies of two cells are higher compared to the other cells, and develop a doubly inflated multivariate Poisson distribution function using multivariate Gaussian copula. We also discuss procedures for regression on covariates for the doubly inflated multivariate count data. For illustrating the proposed methodologies, we present a real data containing bivariate count observations with inflations in two cells. Several models and linear predictors with log link functions are considered, and we discuss maximum likelihood estimation to estimate unknown parameters of the models.

Keywords: copula, Gaussian copula, multivariate distributions, inflated distributios

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Authors: Vimanyu Chadha, Ranganath M. Singari

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Drilling composite materials is a frequently practiced machining process during assembling in various industries such as automotive and aerospace. However, drilling of glass fiber reinforced plastic (GFRP) composites is significantly affected by damage tendency of these materials under cutting forces such as thrust force and torque. The aim of this paper is to investigate the influence of the various cutting parameters such as cutting speed and feed rate; subsequently also to study the influence of number of layers on delamination produced while drilling a GFRP composite. A plan of experiments, based on Taguchi techniques, was instituted considering drilling with prefixed cutting parameters in a hand lay-up GFRP material. The damage induced associated with drilling GFRP composites were measured. Moreover, Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) was performed to obtain minimization of delamination influenced by drilling parameters and number layers. The optimum drilling factor combination was obtained by using the analysis of signal-to-noise ratio. The conclusion revealed that feed rate was the most influential factor on the delamination. The best results of the delamination were obtained with composites with a greater number of layers at lower cutting speeds and feed rates.

Keywords: analysis of variance, delamination, design optimization, drilling, glass fiber reinforced plastic composites, Taguchi method

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Authors: Riznaldi Akbar

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In this study, we compared the performance of the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model with back-propagation algorithm in correctly predicting in-sample and out-of-sample external debt crisis in Indonesia. We found that exchange rate, foreign reserves, and exports are the major determinants to experiencing external debt crisis. The ANN in-sample performance provides relatively superior results. The ANN model is able to classify correctly crisis of 89.12 per cent with reasonably low false alarms of 7.01 per cent. In out-of-sample, the prediction performance fairly deteriorates compared to their in-sample performances. It could be explained as the ANN model tends to over-fit the data in the in-sample, but it could not fit the out-of-sample very well. The 10-fold cross-validation has been used to improve the out-of-sample prediction accuracy. The results also offer policy implications. The out-of-sample performance could be very sensitive to the size of the samples, as it could yield a higher total misclassification error and lower prediction accuracy. The ANN model could be used to identify past crisis episodes with some accuracy, but predicting crisis outside the estimation sample is much more challenging because of the presence of uncertainty.

Keywords: debt crisis, external debt, artificial neural network, ANN

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Authors: Anton Golubkov, Gleb Ermachkov, Aleksandr Smerdin, Oleg Sidorov, Victor Philippov

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Current collection quality is one of the limiting factors when increasing trains movement speed in the rail sector. With the movement speed growth, the impact forces on the current collector from the rolling stock and the aerodynamic influence increase, which leads to the spread in the contact pressure values, separation of the current collector head from the contact wire, contact arcing and excessive wear of the contact elements. The upcoming trend in resolving this issue is the use of the automatic control systems providing stabilization of the contact pressure value. The present paper considers the features of the contemporary automatic control systems of the current collector’s pressure; their major disadvantages have been stated. A scheme of current collector pressure automatic control has been proposed, distinguished by a proactive influence on undesirable effects. A mathematical model of contact strips wearing has been presented, obtained in accordance with the provisions of the central composition rotatable design program. The analysis of the obtained dependencies has been carried out. The procedures for determining the optimal current collector pressure on the contact wire and the pressure control principle in the pneumatic drive have been described.

Keywords: contact strip, current collector, high-speed running, program control, wear

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Authors: DEVASHISH KHULBE, MANU PATHAK

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The rise in popularity of major social media platforms have enabled people to share photos and textual information about their daily life. One of the popular topics about which information is shared is food. Since a lot of media about food are attributed to particular locations and restaurants, information like spatio-temporal popularity of various cuisines can be analyzed. Tracking the popularity of food types and retail locations across space and time can also be useful for business owners and restaurant investors. In this work, we present an approach using off-the shelf machine learning techniques to identify trends and popularity of cuisine types in an area using geo-tagged data from social media, Google images and Yelp. After adjusting for time, we use the Kernel Density Estimation to get hot spots across the location and model the dependencies among food cuisines popularity using Bayesian Networks. We consider the Manhattan borough of New York City as the location for our analyses but the approach can be used for any area with social media data and information about retail businesses.

Keywords: Web Mining, Geographic Information Systems, Business popularity, Spatial Data Analyses

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Authors: Ghzlan Mahmoud Abdel Aziz

Abstract:

This case study aims to identify the intrastate conflicts between the nation state and armed groups. Nowadays, most wars weaken states against armed groups. Thus, it is very important to negotiate with such groups in order to reinforce the law for the protection of victims. These armed groups are the cause of conflicts and they are related with many of humanitarian issues that result out of conflicts. In this age of rivalry; terrorists, insurgents, or transnational criminal parties have surfaced to the top as a reaction to these armed groups in an effort to set up a new world order. Moreover, the intra state conflicts became increasingly treacherous than the interstate conflicts, particularly when nation state systems deal with armed groups which try to influence the state. The unexpected upraising of the Arab Spring during 2011 in parts of the Middle East and North Africa formed various patterns of conflicts. The events of the Arab Spring resulted in current and long term change across the region. Significant modifications in the level, strength and period of armed conflict around the world have been made. Egypt was in the center of these events. It has fought back the armed groups under the name of terrorism and spread common disorder and violence among civilians. On this note, this study focuses on the problem of the transformation in the methods of organized violence within one state rather than between two state or more and analyzes the objectives, strategies, and internal composition of armed groups and the environments that foster them, with a focus on the Egyptian case.

Keywords: armed groups, conflicts, Egyptian armed forces, intrastate conflicts

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Authors: Sudhir Kumar Tiwari

Abstract:

The paper demonstrates a methodology that can be used at an early design stage of any conventional aircraft. This research activity assesses the feasibility derivation of methodology for aircraft loads estimation during the various phases of design for a transport category aircraft by utilizing potential of using commercial finite element analysis software, which may drive significant time saving. Early Design phase have limited data and quick changing configuration results in handling of large number of load cases. It is useful to idealize the aircraft as a connection of beams, which can be very accurately modelled using finite element analysis (beam elements). This research explores the correct approach towards idealizing an aircraft using beam elements. FEM Techniques like inertia relief were studied for implementation during course of work. The correct boundary condition technique envisaged for generation of shear force, bending moment and torque diagrams for the aircraft. The possible applications of this approach are the aircraft design process, which have been investigated.

Keywords: multi-disciplinary optimization, aircraft load, finite element analysis, stick model

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Authors: Qian Zhang, Dongkai Shen, Yan Shi

Abstract:

A new mechanical ventilator with automatic secretion clearance function can improve the secretion clearance safely and efficiently. However, in recent modeling studies on various mechanical ventilators, it was considered that human had one lung, and the coupling effect of double lungs was never illustrated. In this paper, to expound the coupling effect of double lungs, a mathematical model of a ventilation system of a bi-level positive airway pressure (BiPAP) controlled ventilator with secretion clearance was set up. Moreover, an experimental study about the mechanical ventilation system of double lungs on BiPAP ventilator was conducted to verify the mathematical model. Finally, the coupling effect of double lungs of the mathematical ventilation was studied by simulation and orthogonal experimental design. This paper adds to previous studies and can be referred to optimization methods in medical researches.

Keywords: double lungs, coupling effect, secretion clearance, orthogonal experimental design

Procedia PDF Downloads 602