Search results for: coverage probability

Authors: Mariangela Viviani, Daniele Germano, Simone Colace, Agostino Forestiero, Giuseppe Papuzzo, Sara Laurita

Abstract:

Nowadays, people spend most of their time in closed environments, in offices, or at home. Therefore, secure and highly livable environmental conditions are needed to reduce the probability of aerial viruses spreading. Also, to lower the human impact on the planet, it is important to reduce energy consumption. Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning (HVAC) systems account for the major part of energy consumption in buildings [1]. Devising systems to control and regulate the airflow is, therefore, essential for energy efficiency. Moreover, an optimal setting for thermal comfort and air quality is essential for people’s well-being, at home or in offices, and increases productivity. Thanks to the features of Artificial Intelligence (AI) tools and techniques, it is possible to design innovative systems with: (i) Improved monitoring and prediction accuracy; (ii) Enhanced decision-making and mitigation strategies; (iii) Real-time air quality information; (iv) Increased efficiency in data analysis and processing; (v) Advanced early warning systems for air pollution events; (vi) Automated and cost-effective m onitoring network; and (vii) A better understanding of air quality patterns and trends. We propose AIR SAFE, an IoT-based infrastructure designed to optimize air quality and thermal comfort in indoor environments leveraging AI tools. AIR SAFE employs a network of smart sensors collecting indoor and outdoor data to be analyzed in order to take any corrective measures to ensure the occupants’ wellness. The data are analyzed through AI algorithms able to predict the future levels of temperature, relative humidity, and CO₂ concentration [2]. Based on these predictions, AIR SAFE takes actions, such as opening/closing the window or the air conditioner, to guarantee a high level of thermal comfort and air quality in the environment. In this contribution, we present the results from the AI algorithm we have implemented on the first s et o f d ata c ollected i n a real environment. The results were compared with other models from the literature to validate our approach.

Keywords: air quality, internet of things, artificial intelligence, smart home

Procedia PDF Downloads 80

Authors: Iris Xiaohong Quan, Sharon Qi, Kelly Tianqin Shi

Abstract:

This study focuses on the critical role of insurance policies in a world grappling with increasing mental health challenges, as they significantly influence the dynamics of healthcare businesses and entrepreneurial ventures. The paper utilizes the mental health sector as a case to examine the impact of insurance policies on healthcare service providers, entrepreneurs, and individuals seeking mental health support. This paper addressed the following research questions: To what extent do changes in insurance reimbursement policies affect the accessibility and affordability of mental health services for patients, and how does this impact the overall demand for such services? What are the barriers and opportunities that mental health entrepreneurs face and what strategies and adaptations do mental health businesses employ when navigating the evolving landscape of insurance reimbursement policies? How do changes in insurance reimbursement policies, specifically related to mental health services, influence the financial viability and sustainability of mental health clinics and private practices? Employing a self-designed survey aimed at autism spectrum disorder (ASD) treatment companies, alongside two in-depth case studies and an analysis of pertinent insurance policies and documents, this research aims to elucidate the multifaceted influence of insurance policies on the mental health industry. The findings from this study reveal how insurance policies shape the landscape of mental health businesses and their operations. A total of 821 autism treatment organizations or offices were contacted by telephone between November 1, 2019, and January 31, 2020. About half of the offices (53.33%) were established in the past five years, and 80% were established in the past 15 years. There is a significant increase in the establishment of ABA service centers in the recent two decades as a result of autism insurance reform, the increasing social awareness of ASD, and the redefinition of autism. In addition, almost half of the ABA service providers we surveyed had a patient size ranging from 20 to 50 in the year when the residence state passed the legislation for autism insurance coverage. On average, an ABA service provider works with 5.3 insurance companies. This research find that insurance is the main source of revenue for most ABA service providers. However, our survey reveals that clients’ out of pocket payment has been the second main revenue sources. Despite the changes of regulations and insurance policies in all states, clients still have to pay a fraction of, if not all, the ABA treatment service fees out of pocket. This research shows that some ABA service providers seek federal and government funds and grants to support their services and businesses. Our further analysis with the in-depth case studies and other secondary data also indicate the rise of entrepreneurial startups in the mental health industry. Overall, this research sheds light on both the challenges and opportunities presented by insurance policies in the mental health sector, offering insights into the new industry landscape.

Keywords: entrepreneurship, healthcare policy, insurance policy, mental health industry

Procedia PDF Downloads 49

Authors: Zhang Xin

Abstract:

Barrier lakes are lakes formed by storing water in valleys, river valleys or riverbeds after being blocked by landslide, earthquake, debris flow, and other factors. They have great potential safety hazards. When the water is stored to a certain extent, it may burst in case of strong earthquake or rainstorm, and the lake water overflows, resulting in large-scale flood disasters. In order to ensure the safety of people's lives and property in the downstream, it is very necessary to monitor the barrier lake. However, it is very difficult and time-consuming to manually monitor the barrier lake in high altitude areas due to the harsh climate and steep terrain. With the development of earth observation technology, remote sensing monitoring has become one of the main ways to obtain observation data. Compared with a single satellite, multi-satellite remote sensing cooperative observation has more advantages; its spatial coverage is extensive, observation time is continuous, imaging types and bands are abundant, it can monitor and respond quickly to emergencies, and complete complex monitoring tasks. Monitoring with multi-temporal and multi-platform remote sensing satellites can obtain a variety of observation data in time, acquire key information such as water level and water storage capacity of the barrier lake, scientifically judge the situation of the barrier lake and reasonably predict its future development trend. In this study, The Sarez Lake, which formed on February 18, 1911, in the central part of the Pamir as a result of blockage of the Murgab River valley by a landslide triggered by a strong earthquake with magnitude of 7.4 and intensity of 9, is selected as the research area. Since the formation of Lake Sarez, it has aroused widespread international concern about its safety. At present, the use of mechanical methods in the international analysis of the safety of Lake Sarez is more common, and remote sensing methods are seldom used. This study combines remote sensing data with field observation data, and uses the 'space-air-ground' joint observation technology to study the changes in water level and water storage capacity of Lake Sarez in recent decades, and evaluate its safety. The situation of the collapse is simulated, and the future development trend of Lake Sarez is predicted. The results show that: 1) in recent decades, the water level of Lake Sarez has not changed much and remained at a stable level; 2) unless there is a strong earthquake or heavy rain, it is less likely that the Lake Sarez will be broken under normal conditions, 3) lake Sarez will remain stable in the future, but it is necessary to establish an early warning system in the Lake Sarez area for remote sensing of the area, 4) the coordinative remote sensing observation technology is feasible for the high altitude barrier lake of Sarez.

Keywords: coordinative observation, disaster, remote sensing, geographic information system, GIS

Procedia PDF Downloads 112

Authors: Vish Putcha, Chandrasekhar Putcha, Siva Hari

Abstract:

In the current digital era of free trading and pandemic-driven remote work culture, markets worldwide gained momentum for retail investors to trade from anywhere easily. The number of retail traders rose to 24% of the market from 15% at the pre-pandemic level. Most of them are young retail traders with high-risk tolerance compared to the previous generation of retail traders. This trend boosted the growth of subscription-based market predictors and market data vendors. Young traders are betting on these predictors, assuming one of them is correct. However, 90% of retail traders are on the losing end. This paper presents multiple indicators and attempts to derive behavioral patterns from the underlying stocks. The two major indicators that traders and investors follow are technical and fundamental. The famous investor, Warren Buffett, adheres to the “Value Investing” method that is based on a stock’s fundamental Analysis. In this paper, we present multiple indicators from various methods to understand the behavior patterns of stocks. For this research, we picked five stocks with a market capitalization of more than $200M, listed on the exchange for more than 20 years, and from different industry sectors. To study the behavioral pattern over time for these five stocks, a total of 8 indicators are chosen from fundamental, technical, and financial indicators, such as Price to Earning (P/E), Price to Book Value (P/B), Debt to Equity (D/E), Beta, Volatility, Relative Strength Index (RSI), Moving Averages and Dividend yields, followed by detailed mathematical Analysis. This is an interdisciplinary paper between various disciplines of Engineering, Accounting, and Finance. The research takes a new approach to identify clear indicators affecting stocks. Statistical Analysis of the data will be performed in terms of the probabilistic distribution, then follow and then determine the probability of the stock price going over a specific target value. The Chi-square test will be used to determine the validity of the assumed distribution. Preliminary results indicate that this approach is working well. When the complete results are presented in the final paper, they will be beneficial to the community.

Keywords: stock pattern, stock market analysis, stock predictions, trading, investing, fundamental analysis, technical analysis, quantitative trading, financial analysis, behavioral analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 66

Authors: Asowata Osamede

Abstract:

Optimized gain in respect to output power of stand-alone photovoltaic (PV) systems is one of the major focus of PV in recent times. This is evident to its low carbon emission and efficiency. Power failure or outage from commercial providers in general does not promote development to the public and private sector, these basically limit the development of industries. The need for a well-structured PV system is of importance for an efficient and cost-effective monitoring system. The purpose of this paper is to validate the maximum power point of an off-grid PV system taking into consideration the most effective tilt and orientation angles for PV's in the southern hemisphere. This paper is based on analyzing the system using a solar charger with MPPT from a pulse width modulation (PWM) perspective. The power conditioning device chosen is a solar charger with MPPT. The practical setup consists of a PV panel that is set to an orientation angle of 0o north, with a corresponding tilt angle of 36 o, 26o and 16o. The load employed in this set-up are three Lead Acid Batteries (LAB). The percentage fully charged, charging and not charging conditions are observed for all three batteries. The results obtained in this research is used to draw the conclusion that would provide a benchmark for researchers and scientist worldwide. This is done so as to have an idea of the best tilt and orientation angles for maximum power point in a basic off-grid PV system. A quantitative analysis would be employed in this research. Quantitative research tends to focus on measurement and proof. Inferential statistics are frequently used to generalize what is found about the study sample to the population as a whole. This would involve: selecting and defining the research question, deciding on a study type, deciding on the data collection tools, selecting the sample and its size, analyzing, interpreting and validating findings Preliminary results which include regression analysis (normal probability plot and residual plot using polynomial 6) showed the maximum power point in the system. The best tilt angle for maximum power point tracking proves that the 36o tilt angle provided the best average on time which in turns put the system into a pulse width modulation stage.

Keywords: power-conversion, meteonorm, PV panels, DC-DC converters

Procedia PDF Downloads 134

Authors: Valdir Moura, Raniele dos Anjos de Souza, Fernando Gomes de Souza, Jose Vagner da Silva, Jerry Adriani Johann

Abstract:

The estimate of the Area of Land to be planted with annual crops and its stratification by the municipality are important variables in crop forecast. Nowadays in Brazil, these information’s are obtained by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) and published under the report Assessment of the Agricultural Production. Due to the high cloud cover in the main crop growing season (October to March) it is difficult to acquire good orbital images. Thus, one alternative is to work with remote sensing data from dates before the crop growing season. This work presents the use of multitemporal Landsat data gathered on July and September (before the summer growing season) in order to estimate the area of land to be planted with summer crops in an area of São Paulo State, Brazil. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and digital image processing techniques were applied for the treatment of the available data. Supervised and non-supervised classifications were used for data in digital number and reflectance formats and the multitemporal Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) images. The objective was to discriminate the tracts with higher probability to become planted with summer crops. Classification accuracies were evaluated using a sampling system developed basically for this study region. The estimated areas were corrected using the error matrix derived from these evaluations. The classification techniques presented an excellent level according to the kappa index. The proportion of crops stratified by municipalities was derived by a field work during the crop growing season. These proportion coefficients were applied onto the area of land to be planted with summer crops (derived from Landsat data). Thus, it was possible to derive the area of each summer crop by the municipality. The discrepancies between official statistics and our results were attributed to the sampling and the stratification procedures. Nevertheless, this methodology can be improved in order to provide good crop area estimates using remote sensing data, despite the cloud cover during the growing season.

Keywords: area intended for summer culture, estimated area planted, agriculture, Landsat, planting schedule

Procedia PDF Downloads 136

Authors: Jakob Krause

Abstract:

Past Financial Crisis has shown that contemporary risk management models provide an unjustified sense of security and fail miserably in situations in which they are needed the most. In this paper, we start from the assumption that risk is a notion that changes over time and therefore past data points only have limited explanatory power for the current situation. Our objective is to derive the optimal amount of representative information by optimizing between the two adverse forces of estimator convergence, incentivizing us to use as much data as possible, and the aforementioned non-representativeness doing the opposite. In this endeavor, the cornerstone assumption of having access to identically distributed random variables is weakened and substituted by the assumption that the law of the data generating process changes over time. Hence, in this paper, we give a quantitative theory on how to perform statistical analysis in non-ergodic systems. As an application, we discuss the impact of a paragraph in the last iteration of proposals by the Basel Committee on Banking Regulation. We start from the premise that the severity of assumptions should correspond to the robustness of the system they describe. Hence, in the formal description of physical systems, the level of assumptions can be much higher. It follows that every concept that is carried over from the natural sciences to economics must be checked for its plausibility in the new surroundings. Most of the probability theory has been developed for the analysis of physical systems and is based on the independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) assumption. In Economics both parts of the i.i.d. assumption are inappropriate. However, only dependence has, so far, been weakened to a sufficient degree. In this paper, an appropriate class of non-stationary processes is used, and their law is tied to a formal object measuring representativeness. Subsequently, that data set is identified that on average minimizes the estimation error stemming from both, insufficient and non-representative, data. Applications are far reaching in a variety of fields. In the paper itself, we apply the results in order to analyze a paragraph in the Basel 3 framework on banking regulation with severe implications on financial stability. Beyond the realm of finance, other potential applications include the reproducibility crisis in the social sciences (but not in the natural sciences) and modeling limited understanding and learning behavior in economics.

Keywords: banking regulation, non-ergodicity, risk management, semimartingale modeling

Procedia PDF Downloads 135

Authors: Luiza Toschi

Abstract:

This work presents part of an empirical and theoretical master's degree meta-research that is interested in the relationship between the disciplinary area of Social Communication, to be investigated with the characteristics of the Bourdieusian scientific field, and the emergence of public interest in Nonviolent Communication (NVC) in Brazil and the world. To this end, the state of the art of this conceptual and practical relationship is investigated based on scientific productions available in spaces of academic credibility, such as conferences and scientific journals renowned in the field. From there, agents and the sociological aspects that make them contribute or not to scientific production in Brazil and the world are mapped. In this work, a brief dive into the international context is presented to understand if and how nonviolent communication permeates scientific production in communication in a systematic way. Using three accessible articles published between 2013 and 2022 in the 117 magazines classified as Quartiles Q1 in the Journal Ranking of Communication, the international production on the subject is compared with the Brazilian one from its context. The social conditions of the international circulation of ideas are thus discussed. Science is a product of its social environment, arising from relations of interest and power that compete in the political dimension at the same time as in the epistemological dimension. In this way, scientific choices are linked to the resources mobilized from or through the prestige and recognition of peers. In this sense, an object of interest stands out to a scientist for its academic value, but also and inseparably that which has a social interest within the collective, their social stratification, and the context of legitimacy created in their surroundings, influenced by cultural universalism. In Brazil, three published articles were found in congresses and journals that mention NVC in their abstract or keywords. All were written by Public Relations undergraduate students. Between the most experienced researchers who guided or validated the publications, it is possible to find two professionals who are interested in the Culture of Peace and Dialogy. Likewise, internationally, only three of the articles found mention the term in their abstract or title. Two analyze journalistic coverage based on the principles of NVC and Journalism for Peace. The third is from one of the Brazilian researchers identified as interested in dialogic practices, who analyses audiovisual material and promotes epistemological reflections. If, on the one hand, some characteristics inside and outside Brazil are similar: small samples, relationship with peace studies, and female researchers, two of whom are Brazilian, on the other hand, differences are obvious. If within the country, the subject is mostly Organizational Communication, outside this intersection, it is not presented explicitly. Furthermore, internationally, there is an interest in analyzing from the perspective of NVC, which has not been found so far in publications in Brazil. Up to the present moment, it is possible to presume that, universally, the legitimacy of the topic is sought by its association with conflict conciliation research and communication for peace.

Keywords: academic field sociology, international circulation of ideas, meta research in communication, nonviolent communication

Procedia PDF Downloads 28

Authors: Venkat Kamavaram, Ravi Pare

Abstract:

Modern warfighters experience extreme environmental conditions in many of their operational and training activities. In temperatures exceeding 95°F, the body’s temperature regulation can no longer cool through convection and radiation. In this case, the only cooling mechanism is evaporation. However, evaporative cooling is often compromised by excessive humidity. Natural cooling mechanisms can be further compromised by clothing and protective gear, which trap hot air and moisture close to the body. Creating an efficient heat extraction apparel system that is also lightweight without hindering dexterity or mobility of personnel working in extreme temperatures is a difficult technical challenge and one that needs to be addressed to increase the probability for the future success of the US military. To address this challenge, Oceanit Laboratories, Inc. has developed and patented a Liquid Cooled Garment (LCG) more effective than any on the market today. Oceanit’s LCG is a form-fitting garment with a network of thermally conductive tubes that extracts body heat and can be worn under all authorized and chemical/biological protective clothing. Oceanit specifically designed and developed ThermoCore®, a thermally conductive polymer, for use in this apparel, optimizing the product for thermal conductivity, mechanical properties, manufacturability, and performance temperatures. Thermal Manikin tests were conducted in accordance with the ASTM test method, ASTM F2371, Standard Test Method for Measuring the Heat Removal Rate of Personal Cooling Systems Using a Sweating Heated Manikin, in an environmental chamber using a 20-zone sweating thermal manikin. Manikin test results have shown that Oceanit’s LCG provides significantly higher heat extraction under the same environmental conditions than the currently fielded Environmental Control Vest (ECV) while at the same time reducing the weight. Oceanit’s LCG vests performed nearly 30% better in extracting body heat while weighing 15% less than the ECV. There are NO cooling garments in the market that provide the same thermal extraction performance, form-factor, and reduced weight as Oceanit’s LCG. The two cooling garments that are commercially available and most commonly used are the Environmental Control Vest (ECV) and the Microclimate Cooling Garment (MCG).

Keywords: thermally conductive composite, tubing, garment design, form fitting vest, thermocore

Procedia PDF Downloads 105

Authors: Faiz N. K. Yusufi, Aquil Ahmed, Jamal Ahmad

Abstract:

Predicting the risk of diabetic retinopathy (DR) in Indian type 2 diabetes patients is immensely necessary. India, being the second largest country after China in terms of a number of diabetic patients, to the best of our knowledge not a single risk score for complications has ever been investigated. Diabetic retinopathy is a serious complication and is the topmost reason for visual impairment across countries. Any type or form of DR has been taken as the event of interest, be it mild, back, grade I, II, III, and IV DR. A sample was determined and randomly collected from the Rajiv Gandhi Centre for Diabetes and Endocrinology, J.N.M.C., A.M.U., Aligarh, India. Collected variables include patients data such as sex, age, height, weight, body mass index (BMI), blood sugar fasting (BSF), post prandial sugar (PP), glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA1c), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), systolic blood pressure (SBP), smoking, alcohol habits, total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG), high density lipoprotein (HDL), low density lipoprotein (LDL), very low density lipoprotein (VLDL), physical activity, duration of diabetes, diet control, history of antihypertensive drug treatment, family history of diabetes, waist circumference, hip circumference, medications, central obesity and history of DR. Cox proportional hazard regression is used to design risk scores for the prediction of retinopathy. Model calibration and discrimination are assessed from Hosmer Lemeshow and area under receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC). Overfitting and underfitting of the model are checked by applying regularization techniques and best method is selected between ridge, lasso and elastic net regression. Optimal cut off point is chosen by Youden’s index. Five-year probability of DR is predicted by both survival function, and Markov chain two state model and the better technique is concluded. The risk scores developed can be applied by doctors and patients themselves for self evaluation. Furthermore, the five-year probabilities can be applied as well to forecast and maintain the condition of patients. This provides immense benefit in real application of DR prediction in T2DM.

Keywords: Cox proportional hazard regression, diabetic retinopathy, ROC curve, type 2 diabetes mellitus

Procedia PDF Downloads 170

Authors: Stephens Oluyemi Adetunji, Nel Norma Margaret, Naidu Narainsamy

Abstract:

Empathy has been identified by researchers to be a crucial factor in helping adolescents to refrain from delinquent behavior. Adolescent delinquent behavior is a social problem that has become a source of concern to parents, psychologists, educators, correctional services, researchers as well as governments of nations. Empathy is a social skill that enables an individual to understand and to share another’s emotional state. An individual with a high level of empathy will avoid any act or behavior that will affect another person negatively. The need for this study is predicated on the fact that delinquent adolescent behavior could lead to adult criminality. This, in the long run, has the potential of resulting in an increase in crime rate thereby threatening public safety. It has therefore become imperative to explore the level of empathy of delinquent adolescents who have committed crime and are awaiting trial. It is the conjecture of this study that knowledge of the empathy level of delinquent adolescents will provide an opportunity to design an intervention strategy to remediate the deficit. This study was therefore designed to determine the level of empathy of delinquent adolescents. In addition, this study provides a better understanding of factors that may prevent adolescents from developing delinquent behavior, in this case, delinquents’ empathy levels. In the case of participants who have a low level of empathy, remediation strategies to improve their empathy level would be designed. Two research questions were raised to guide this study. A mixed methods research design was employed for the study. The sample consists of fifteen male adolescents who are between 13-18 years old with a mean age of 16.5 years old. The participants are adolescents who are awaiting trial. The non-probability sampling technique was used to obtain the sample for the quantitative study while purposive sampling was used in the case of the qualitative study. A self–report questionnaire and structured interview were used to assess the level of empathy of participants. The data obtained was analysed using the simple percentages for the quantitative data and transcribing the qualitative data. The result indicates that most of the participants have low level of empathy. It is also revealed that there is a difference in the empathy level on the basis of whether they are from parents living together and those whose parents are separated. Based on the findings of this study, it is recommended that the level of empathy of participants be improved through training and emphasizing the importance of stimulating family environment for children. It is also recommended that programs such as youth mentoring and youth sheltering be established by the government of South Africa to address the menace of delinquent adolescents.

Keywords: adolescents, behavior, delinquents, empathy

Procedia PDF Downloads 451

Authors: Ji Zhou, Jung Hee Seo, Rajat Mittal

Abstract:

Fish move in groups for foraging, reproduction, predator protection, and hydrodynamic efficiency. Schooling's predator protection involves the "many eyes" theory, which increases predator detection probability in a group. Reduced visual signature in a group scales with school size, offering per-capita protection. The ‘confusion effect’ makes it hard for predators to target prey in a group. These benefits, however, all focus on vision-based sensing, overlooking sound-based detection. Fish, including predators, possess sophisticated sensory systems for pressure waves and underwater sound. The lateral line system detects acoustic waves, while otolith organs sense infrasound, and sharks use an auditory system for low-frequency sounds. Among sound generation mechanisms of fish, the mechanism of dipole sound relates to hydrodynamic pressure forces on the body surface of the fish and this pressure would be affected by group swimming. Thus, swimming within a group could affect this hydrodynamic noise signature of fish and possibly serve as an additional protection afforded by schooling, but none of the studies to date have explored this effect. BAUVs with fin-like propulsors could reduce acoustic noise without compromising performance, addressing issues of anthropogenic noise pollution in marine environments. Therefore, in this study, we used our in-house immersed-boundary method flow and acoustic solver, ViCar3D, to simulate fish schools consisting of four swimmers in the classic ‘diamond’ configuration and discussed the feasibility of yielding higher swimming efficiency and controlling far-field sound signature of the school. We examine the effects of the relative phase of fin flapping of the swimmers and the simulation results indicate that the phase of the fin flapping is a dominant factor in both thrust enhancement and the total sound radiated into the far-field by a group of swimmers. For fish in the “diamond” configuration, a suitable combination of the relative phase difference between pairs of leading fish and trailing fish can result in better swimming performance with significantly lower hydroacoustic noise.

Keywords: fish schooling, biopropulsion, hydrodynamics, hydroacoustics

Procedia PDF Downloads 44

Authors: Nan Xu

Abstract:

In airlines, the crew scheduling problem is usually decomposed into two stages: crew pairing and crew rostering. In the crew pairing stage, pairings are generated such that each flight is covered by exactly one pairing and the overall cost is minimized. In the crew rostering stage, the pairings generated in the crew pairing stage are combined with off days, training and other breaks to create individual work schedules. The paper focuses on cabin crew rostering problem, which is challenging due to the extremely large size and the complex working rules involved. In our approach, the objective of rostering consists of two major components. The first is to minimize the number of unassigned pairings and the second is to ensure the fairness to crew members. There are two measures of fairness to crew members, the number of overnight duties and the total fly-hour over a given period. Pairings should be assigned to each crew member so that their actual overnight duties and fly hours are as close to the expected average as possible. Deviations from the expected average are penalized in the objective function. Since several small deviations are preferred than a large deviation, the penalization is quadratic. Our model of the airline crew rostering problem is based on column generation. The problem is decomposed into a master problem and subproblems. The mater problem is modeled as a set partition problem and exactly one roster for each crew is picked up such that the pairings are covered. The restricted linear master problem (RLMP) is considered. The current subproblem tries to find columns with negative reduced costs and add them to the RLMP for the next iteration. When no column with negative reduced cost can be found or a stop criteria is met, the procedure ends. The subproblem is to generate feasible crew rosters for each crew member. A separate acyclic weighted graph is constructed for each crew member and the subproblem is modeled as resource constrained shortest path problems in the graph. Labeling algorithm is used to solve it. Since the penalization is quadratic, a method to deal with non-additive shortest path problem using labeling algorithm is proposed and corresponding domination condition is defined. The major contribution of our model is: 1) We propose a method to deal with non-additive shortest path problem; 2) Operation to allow relaxing some soft rules is allowed in our algorithm, which can improve the coverage rate; 3) Multi-thread techniques are used to improve the efficiency of the algorithm when generating Line-of-Work for crew members. Here a column generation based algorithm for the airline cabin crew rostering problem is proposed. The objective is to assign a personalized roster to crew member which minimize the number of unassigned pairings and ensure the fairness to crew members. The algorithm we propose in this paper has been put into production in a major airline in China and numerical experiments show that it has a good performance.

Keywords: aircrew rostering, aircrew scheduling, column generation, SPPRC

Procedia PDF Downloads 136

Authors: Adel A. Ghobbar, Varun Raman

Abstract:

The Corrective maintenance of components and systems is a problem plaguing almost every industry in the world today. Train operators’ and the maintenance repair and overhaul subsidiary of the Dutch railway company is also facing this problem. A considerable portion of the maintenance activities carried out by the company are unscheduled. This, in turn, severely stresses and stretches the workforce and resources available. One possible solution is to have a robust preventive maintenance plan. The other possible solution is to plan maintenance based on real-time data obtained from sensor-based ‘Health and Usage Monitoring Systems.’ The former has been investigated in this paper. The preventive maintenance model developed for train operator will subsequently be extended, to tackle the unscheduled maintenance problem also affecting the aerospace industry. The extension of the model to the aerospace sector will be dealt with in the second part of the research, and it would, in turn, validate the soundness of the model developed. Thus, there are distinct areas that will be addressed in this paper, including the mathematical modelling of preventive maintenance and optimization based on cost and system availability. The results of this research will help an organization to choose the right maintenance strategy, allowing it to save considerable sums of money as opposed to overspending under the guise of maintaining high asset availability. The concept of delay time modelling was used to address the practical problem of unscheduled maintenance in this paper. The delay time modelling can be used to help with support planning for a given asset. The model was run using MATLAB, and the results are shown that the ideal inspection intervals computed using the extended from a minimal cost perspective were 29 days, and from a minimum downtime, perspective was 14 days. Risk matrix integration was constructed to represent the risk in terms of the probability of a fault leading to breakdown maintenance and its consequences in terms of maintenance cost. Thus, the choice of an optimal inspection interval of 29 days, resulted in a cost of approximately 50 Euros and the corresponding value of b(T) was 0.011. These values ensure that the risk associated with component X being maintained at an inspection interval of 29 days is more than acceptable. Thus, a switch in maintenance frequency from 90 days to 29 days would be optimal from the point of view of cost, downtime and risk.

Keywords: delay time modelling, unscheduled maintenance, reliability, maintainability, availability

Procedia PDF Downloads 125

Authors: Getahun Nigusie Demise

Abstract:

Background; antiretroviral treatment reduce HIV-related morbidity, and prolonged survival of patients however, there is lack of up-to-date information concerning the treatment long term effect on the survival of HIV positive children especially in the study area. Objective: The aim of this study is to assess the incidence and predictors of mortality among HIV positive children on antiretroviral therapy (ART) in public hospitals of Harer town who were enrolled from 2011 to 2021. Methodology: Institution based retrospective cohort study was conducted among 429 HIV positive children enrolled in ART clinic from January 1st 2011 to December30th 2021. Data were collected from medical cards by using a data extraction form, Descriptive analyses were used to Summarized the results, and life table was used to estimate survival probability at specific point of time after introduction of ART. Kaplan Meier survival curve together with log rank test was used to compare survival between different categories of covariates, and Multivariate Cox-proportional hazard regression model was used to estimate adjusted Hazard rate. Variables with p-values ≤0.25 in bivariable analysis were candidates to the multivariable analysis. Finally, variables with p-values < 0.05 were considered as significant variables. Results: The study participants had followed for a total of 2549.6 child-years (30596 child months) with an overall mortality rate of 1.5 (95% CI: 1.1, 2.04) per 100 child-years. Their median survival time was 112 months (95% CI: 101–117). There were 38 children with unknown outcome, 39 deaths, and 55 children transfer out to different facility. The overall survival at 6, 12, 24, 48 months were 98%, 96%, 95%, 94% respectively. being in WHO clinical Stage four (AHR=4.55, 95% CI:1.36, 15.24), having anemia(AHR=2.56, 95% CI:1.11, 5.93), baseline low absolute CD4 count (AHR=2.95, 95% CI: 1.22, 7.12), stunting (AHR=4.1, 95% CI: 1.11, 15.42), wasting (AHR=4.93, 95% CI: 1.31, 18.76), poor adherence to treatment (AHR=3.37, 95% CI: 1.25, 9.11), having TB infection at enrollment (AHR=3.26, 95% CI: 1.25, 8.49),and no history of change their regimen(AHR=7.1, 95% CI: 2.74, 18.24), were independent predictors of death. Conclusion: more than half of death occurs within 2 years. Prevalent tuberculosis, anemia, wasting, and stunting nutritional status, socioeconomic factors, and baseline opportunistic infection were independent predictors of death. Increasing early screening and managing those predictors are required.

Keywords: human immunodeficiency virus-positive children, anti-retroviral therapy, survival, treatment, Ethiopia

Procedia PDF Downloads 27

Authors: Roseliza Mat Alipiah, David Raffaelli, J. C. R. Smart

Abstract:

This research is a new approach as it integrates information from both environmental and social sciences to inform effective management of the wetlands. A three-stage research framework was developed for modelling the drivers and pressures imposed on the wetlands and their impacts to the ecosystem and the local communities. Firstly, a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) was used to predict the probability of anthropogenic activities affecting the delivery of different key wetland ecosystem services under different management scenarios. Secondly, Choice Experiments (CEs) were used to quantify the relative preferences which key wetland stakeholder group (aquaculturists) held for delivery of different levels of these key ecosystem services. Thirdly, a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) was applied to produce an ordinal ranking of the alternative management scenarios accounting for their impacts upon ecosystem service delivery as perceived through the preferences of the aquaculturists. This integrated ecosystem management approach was applied to a wetland ecosystem in Setiu, Terengganu, Malaysia which currently supports a significant level of aquaculture activities. This research has produced clear guidelines to inform policy makers considering alternative wetland management scenarios: Intensive Aquaculture, Conservation or Ecotourism, in addition to the Status Quo. The findings of this research are as follows: The BBN revealed that current aquaculture activity is likely to have significant impacts on water column nutrient enrichment, but trivial impacts on caged fish biomass, especially under the Intensive Aquaculture scenario. Secondly, the best fitting CE models identified several stakeholder sub-groups for aquaculturists, each with distinct sets of preferences for the delivery of key ecosystem services. Thirdly, the MCDA identified Conservation as the most desirable scenario overall based on ordinal ranking in the eyes of most of the stakeholder sub-groups. Ecotourism and Status Quo scenarios were the next most preferred and Intensive Aquaculture was the least desirable scenario. The methodologies developed through this research provide an opportunity for improving planning and decision making processes that aim to deliver sustainable management of wetland ecosystems in Malaysia.

Keywords: Bayesian belief network (BBN), choice experiments (CE), multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA), aquaculture

Procedia PDF Downloads 278

Authors: Siming Xie

Abstract:

In social networks, the term homophily refers to the tendency of agents with similar characteristics to link with one another and is so robustly observed across many contexts and dimensions. The starting point of my research is the observation that the “type” of agents is not a single exogenous variable. Agents, despite their differences in race, religion, and other hard to alter characteristics, may share interests and engage in activities that cut across those predetermined lines. This research aims to capture the interactions of homophily effects in a model where agents have two-dimension characteristics (i.e., race and personal hobbies such as basketball, which one either likes or dislikes) and with biases in meeting opportunities and in favor of same-type friendships. A novel feature of my model is providing a matching process with biased meeting probability on different dimensions, which could help to understand the structuring process in multidimensional networks without missing layer interdependencies. The main contribution of this study is providing a welfare based matching process for agents with multi-dimensional characteristics. In particular, this research shows that the biases in meeting opportunities on one dimension would lead to the emergence of homophily on the other dimension. The objective of this research is to determine the pattern of homophily in network formations, which will shed light on our understanding of segregation and its remedies. By constructing a two-dimension matching process, this study explores a method to describe agents’ homophilous behavior in a social network with multidimension and construct a game in which the minorities and majorities play different strategies in a society. It also shows that the optimal strategy is determined by the relative group size, where society would suffer more from social segregation if the two racial groups have a similar size. The research also has political implications—cultivating the same characteristics among agents helps diminishing social segregation, but only if the minority group is small enough. This research includes both theoretical models and empirical analysis. Providing the friendship formation model, the author first uses MATLAB to perform iteration calculations, then derives corresponding mathematical proof on previous results, and last shows that the model is consistent with empirical evidence from high school friendships. The anonymous data comes from The National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health).

Keywords: homophily, multidimension, social networks, friendships

Procedia PDF Downloads 158

Authors: Tharwat Ibrahim Rushdy, Warda Youssef Mohammed Morsy, Hanaa Ali Ahmed Elfeky

Abstract:

Background: Intra-aortic balloon pump (IABP) is the first and the most commonly used mechanical circulatory support for patients with acute coronary syndromes and cardiogenic shock. Therefore, critical care nurses not only have to know how to monitor and operate the IABP, but also to provide interventions for preventing possible complications. Aim of the study: To assess nurses' knowledge and practices regarding care of patients connected to IABP at the ICUs of Cairo University Hospitals. Research design: A descriptive exploratory design was utilized. Sample: Convenience samples of 40 nurses were included in the current study. Setting: This study was carried out at the Intensive Care Units of Cairo University Hospitals. Tools of data collection: Three tools were developed, tested for clarity, and feasibility: a- Nurses' personal background sheet, b- IABP nurses' knowledge self-administered questionnaire, and c- IABP Nurses' practice observational checklist. Results: The majority of the studied sample had unsatisfactory knowledge and practice level (88% & 95%) respectively with a mean of 9.45+2.94 and 30.5+8.7, respectively. Unsatisfactory knowledge was found regarding description and physiological effects, nursing care, indications, contraindications, complications, weaning, and removal of IABP in percentage of 95%, 90%, 72.5%, and 57.5%, respectively, with a mean total knowledge score of 9.45 +2.94. In addition, unsatisfactory practice was found regarding about preparation and initiation of IABP therapy, nursing practice during therapy, weaning, and removal of IABP in percentages of (97.5%, 97.5%, and 90%), respectively. Finally, knowledge level was found to differ significantly in relation to gender (t = 2.46 at P ≤ 0.018). However, gender didn't play a role in relation to practice (t = 0.086 at P≤ 0.932). Conclusion: In spite of having vital role in assessment and management of critically ill patients, critical care nurses in the current study had in general unsatisfactory knowledge and practice regarding care of patients connected to IABP. Recommendation: updating knowledge and practice of ICU nurses through carrying out continuing educational programs about IABP; strict observation of nurses' practice when caring for patients connected to IABP and provision of guidance to correct of poor practices and replication of this study on larger probability sample selected from different geographical locations.

Keywords: knowledge, practice, intra-aortic balloon pump (IABP), ICU nurses, intensive care unit (ICU), introduction

Procedia PDF Downloads 482

Authors: Disha Bhanot, Vinish Kathuria

Abstract:

This study focusses on the issue of distress sale in horticulture sector in India, which faces unique challenges, given the perishable nature of horticulture crops, seasonal production and paucity of post-harvest produce management links. Distress sale, from a farmer’s perspective may be defined as urgent sale of normal or distressed goods, at deeply discounted prices (way below the cost of production) and it is usually characterized by unfavorable conditions for the seller (farmer). The small and marginal farmers, often involved in subsistence farming, stand to lose substantially if they receive lower prices than expected prices (typically framed in relation to cost of production). Distress sale maximizes price uncertainty of produce leading to substantial income loss; and with increase in input costs of farming, the high variability in harvest price severely affects profit margin of farmers, thereby affecting their survival. The objective of this study is to model the occurrence of distress sale by tomato cultivators in the Indian state of Maharashtra, against the background of differential access to set of factors such as - capital, irrigation facilities, warehousing, storage and processing facilities, and institutional arrangements for procurement etc. Data is being collected using primary survey of over 200 farmers in key tomato growing areas of Maharashtra, asking information on the above factors in addition to seeking information on cost of cultivation, selling price, time gap between harvesting and selling, role of middleman in selling, besides other socio-economic variables. Farmers selling their produce far below the cost of production would indicate an occurrence of distress sale. Occurrence of distress sale would then be modelled as a function of farm, household and institutional characteristics. Heckman-two-stage model would be applied to find the probability/likelihood of a famer falling into distress sale as well as to ascertain how the extent of distress sale varies in presence/absence of various factors. Findings of the study would recommend suitable interventions and promotion of strategies that would help farmers better manage price uncertainties, avoid distress sale and increase profit margins, having direct implications on poverty.

Keywords: distress sale, horticulture, income loss, India, price uncertainity

Procedia PDF Downloads 226

Authors: Monica Sanchez

Abstract:

What responsibility does urban planning have on climate changes? How does the territory give us answers of resilience? Historically, urban plans have civilized territories: waters are channeled, grounds are sealed, foreign species are incorporated, native ones are extinguished, and/or enclosed spaces are heated or cooled. Socially this facilitates coexistence, but in turn brings negative environmental consequences. The past fifty years, mankind has tried to redirect these consequences through different strategies. Research studies produced strategies designed to alleviate climate change. Exploring the nature of territories has been incorporated in urban planning to discover natures response. The case to be studied is Santiago, Chile: for its combined impacts of climate change and the significant response by this city on climate governance in the last decades. Warmer areas in Santiago are seen in the areas of high-density buildings such as the commune of Recoleta, while the coldest are characterized by the predominance of low residential densities as the commune of Providencia. These two communes are separated and complemented by an undulating body that comes from the Andes mountains called San Cristobal Hill. What if the hill were taken into account when making roads, zoning and buildings? Was it difficult to prolong in the urban plans the hill characteristics to the city solving the intersection with other natural areas? Apparently it was, because the projected-profile informs us that the planned strategies used correspond to the same operations used in the flat areas of Santiago. This research focuses on: explaining the geographic relationships between city-hill; explaining the planning process around the hill with a morphological analysis; evaluating how the hill has been considered the in the city in the plans that intended to cushion the environmental impacts and studying what is missing on the hill and city to strengthen their integration. Therefore, the research will have different scales of understanding: addressing territorial scale -understanding the vegetation, topography and hydrology; a city scale -analyzing urban plans that Santiago has dealt with the environment and city; and a local scale -studying the integration and public spaces and coverage- norms of the adjacent communes. The expected outcome is to decipher possible deficits and capabilities of the current urban plans for climate change. It is anticipated that the hill and valley is now trying to reconcile after such a long separation. Yet it seems that never will prevail all the Rules of Nature, but the Urban Rules. The plans will require pruning, irrigation, control of invasive alien species and public safety standards, but will be rejoining a dose of nature with the building environment -this will protect us better from it from the time that we feared from it and knew little about it. Today we know a little more, enough to adapt to the process. Although nature is not perceived and we ignore it, it has a remarkable ability to respond.

Keywords: resilience, climate change, urban plans, land use, hills and cities, heat islands, morphology

Procedia PDF Downloads 354

Authors: Nada Basset

Abstract:

Purpose: To examine the nature of the civil service sector as an employer through identifying the likely ways to develop employees’ commitment towards change in the civil service sector. Design/Methodology/Approach: a qualitative research approach was followed. Data was collected via a triangulation of interviews, non-participant observation and archival documents analysis. Non-probability sampling took place with a case-study method applied on a sample of 33 civil servants working in the Egyptian Ministry of State for Administrative Development (MSAD) which is the civil service entity acting as the change agent responsible for managing the government administrative reforms plan in the civil service sector. All study participants were actually working in one of the change projects/programmes and had a minimum of 12 months of service in the civil service. Interviews were digitally recorded and transcribed in the form of MS-Word documents, and data transcripts were analyzed manually using MS-Excel worksheets and main research themes were developed and statistics drawn using those Excel worksheets. Findings: The results demonstrate that developing the civil servant’s commitment towards change may require a number of suggested solutions like (1) employee involvement and participation in the planning and implementation processes, (2) linking the employee support to change to some tangible rewards and incentives, (3) appointing some inspirational change leaders that should act as role models, and (4) as a last resort, enforcing employee’s commitment towards change by coercion and authoritarianism. Practical Implications: it is clear that civil servants’ lack of organizational commitment is not directly related to their level of commitment towards change. The research findings showed that civil servants’ commitment towards change can be raised and promoted by getting them involved in the planning and implementation processes, as this develops some sense of belongingness and ownership, thus there is a fair chance that low organizationally committed civil servants can develop high commitment towards change; given they are provided a favorable environment where they are invited to participate and get involved into the move of change. Originality/Value: the research addresses a relatively new area of ‘developing organizational commitment in modern bureaucracies’ by virtue of investigating the levels of civil servants’ commitment towards their jobs and/or organizations -on one hand- and suggesting different ways of developing their commitment towards administrative reform and change initiatives in the Egyptian civil service sector.

Keywords: change, commitment, Egypt, bureaucracy

Procedia PDF Downloads 468

Authors: Mustafa Mutahari, Nao Sugiki, Kojiro Matsuo

Abstract:

The four decades of war, lack of job opportunities, poverty, lack of services, and natural disasters in different provinces of Afghanistan have contributed to a rapid increase in the population of Kabul, the capital city of Afghanistan. Population census has not been conducted since 1979, the first and last population census in Afghanistan. However, according to population estimations by Afghan authorities, the population of Kabul has been estimated at more than 4 million people, whereas the city was designed for two million people. Although the major transport mode of Kabul residents is public transport, responsible authorities within the country failed to supply the required means of transportation systems for the city. Besides, informal resettlement, lack of intersection control devices, presence of illegal vendors on streets, presence of illegal and unstandardized on-street parking and bus stops, driver`s unprofessional behavior, weak traffic law enforcement, and blocked roads and sidewalks have contributed to the extreme traffic congestion of Kabul. In 2018, the government of Afghanistan approved the Kabul city Urban Design Framework (KUDF), a vision towards the future of Kabul, which provides strategies and design guidance at different scales to direct urban development. Considering traffic congestion of the city and its budget limitations, the KUDF proposes a BRT route network with seven lines to reduce the traffic congestion, and it is said to facilitate more than 50% of Kabul population to benefit from this service. Based on the KUDF, it is planned to increase the BRT mode share from 0% to 17% and later to 30% in medium and long-term planning scenarios, respectively. Therefore, a detailed research study is needed to evaluate the proposed system before the implementation stage starts. The integrated land-use transport model is an effective tool to evaluate the Kabul BRT because of its future assessment capabilities that take into account the interaction between land use and transportation. This research aims to analyze and evaluate the proposed BRT route network with the application of an integrated land-use and transportation model. The research estimates the population distribution and travel behavior of Kabul within small boundary scales. The actual road network and land-use detailed data of the city are used to perform the analysis. The BRT corridors are evaluated not only considering its impacts on the spatial interactions in the city`s transportation system but also on the spatial developments. Therefore, the BRT are evaluated with the scenarios of improving the Kabul transportation system based on the distribution of land-use or spatial developments, planned development typology and population distribution of the city. The impacts of the new improved transport system on the BRT network are analyzed and the BRT network is evaluated accordingly. In addition, the research also focuses on the spatial accessibility of BRT stops, corridors, and BRT line beneficiaries, and each BRT stop and corridor are evaluated in terms of both access and geographic coverage, as well.

Keywords: accessibility, BRT, integrated land-use and transport model, travel behavior, spatial development

Procedia PDF Downloads 195

Authors: M. Gulam Kibria, Shourav Ahmed, Kais Zaman

Abstract:

In system analysis, the information on the uncertain input variables cause uncertainty in the system responses. Different probabilistic approaches for uncertainty representation and propagation in such cases exist in the literature. Different uncertainty representation approaches result in different outputs. Some of the approaches might result in a better estimation of system response than the other approaches. The NASA Langley Multidisciplinary Uncertainty Quantification Challenge (MUQC) has posed challenges about uncertainty quantification. Subproblem A, the uncertainty characterization subproblem, of the challenge posed is addressed in this study. In this subproblem, the challenge is to gather knowledge about unknown model inputs which have inherent aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in them with responses (output) of the given computational model. We use two different methodologies to approach the problem. In the first methodology we use sampling-based uncertainty propagation with first order error analysis. In the other approach we place emphasis on the use of Percentile-Based Optimization (PBO). The NASA Langley MUQC’s subproblem A is developed in such a way that both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties need to be managed. The challenge problem classifies each uncertain parameter as belonging to one the following three types: (i) An aleatory uncertainty modeled as a random variable. It has a fixed functional form and known coefficients. This uncertainty cannot be reduced. (ii) An epistemic uncertainty modeled as a fixed but poorly known physical quantity that lies within a given interval. This uncertainty is reducible. (iii) A parameter might be aleatory but sufficient data might not be available to adequately model it as a single random variable. For example, the parameters of a normal variable, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, might not be precisely known but could be assumed to lie within some intervals. It results in a distributional p-box having the physical parameter with an aleatory uncertainty, but the parameters prescribing its mathematical model are subjected to epistemic uncertainties. Each of the parameters of the random variable is an unknown element of a known interval. This uncertainty is reducible. From the study, it is observed that due to practical limitations or computational expense, the sampling is not exhaustive in sampling-based methodology. That is why the sampling-based methodology has high probability of underestimating the output bounds. Therefore, an optimization-based strategy to convert uncertainty described by interval data into a probabilistic framework is necessary. This is achieved in this study by using PBO.

Keywords: aleatory uncertainty, epistemic uncertainty, first order error analysis, uncertainty quantification, percentile-based optimization

Procedia PDF Downloads 226

Authors: Giorgio Bertolazzi, Panayiotis Benos, Michele Tumminello, Claudia Coronnello

Abstract:

MicroRNAs are small non-coding RNAs that post-transcriptionally regulate the expression levels of messenger RNAs. MicroRNA regulation activity depends on the recognition of binding sites located on mRNA molecules. ComiR (Combinatorial miRNA targeting) is a user friendly web tool realized to predict the targets of a set of microRNAs, starting from their expression profile. ComiR incorporates miRNA expression in a thermodynamic binding model, and it associates each gene with the probability of being a target of a set of miRNAs. ComiR algorithms were trained with the information regarding binding sites in the 3’UTR region, by using a reliable dataset containing the targets of endogenously expressed microRNA in D. melanogaster S2 cells. This dataset was obtained by comparing the results from two different experimental approaches, i.e., inhibition, and immunoprecipitation of the AGO1 protein; this protein is a component of the microRNA induced silencing complex. In this work, we tested whether including coding region binding sites in the ComiR algorithm improves the performance of the tool in predicting microRNA targets. We focused the analysis on the D. melanogaster species and updated the ComiR underlying database with the currently available releases of mRNA and microRNA sequences. As a result, we find that the ComiR algorithm trained with the information related to the coding regions is more efficient in predicting the microRNA targets, with respect to the algorithm trained with 3’utr information. On the other hand, we show that 3’utr based predictions can be seen as complementary to the coding region based predictions, which suggests that both predictions, from 3'UTR and coding regions, should be considered in a comprehensive analysis. Furthermore, we observed that the lists of targets obtained by analyzing data from one experimental approach only, that is, inhibition or immunoprecipitation of AGO1, are not reliable enough to test the performance of our microRNA target prediction algorithm. Further analysis will be conducted to investigate the effectiveness of the tool with data from other species, provided that validated datasets, as obtained from the comparison of RISC proteins inhibition and immunoprecipitation experiments, will be available for the same samples. Finally, we propose to upgrade the existing ComiR web-tool by including the coding region based trained model, available together with the 3’UTR based one.

Keywords: AGO1, coding region, Drosophila melanogaster, microRNA target prediction

Procedia PDF Downloads 436

Authors: Trina Isabel D. Santiago, Juan Raphael M. Perez, Maria Angelica O. Soriano, Teresita B. Suing, Jumee F. Tayaban

Abstract:

To achieve universal healthcare for everyone, the World Health Organization has emphasized the importance of National Medicines Policies for increased accessibility and utilization of high-quality and affordable medications. In the Philippines, significant challenges have been identified surrounding the sustainability of essential medicines, resulting in limited access such as high cost and dominance and market dominance and monopoly of multinational companies (MNCs) in the Philippine pharmaceutical industry. These identified challenges have been addressed by several initiatives, such as the Philippine National Drug Policy and Generics Act of 1988 (Republic Act 6675), to attempt to reduce drug prices. Despite these efforts, the concerns with drug accessibility and affordability continue to persist; hence, Republic Act 9502 was enacted. This paper attempts to review RA 9502 in the pursuit of making medicines more affordable for Filipinos, analyze and critique the problems and challenges associated with the law, and provide recommendations to address identified problems and challenges. A literature search and review, as well as an analysis of the law, has been done to evaluate the policy. RA 9502 recognizes the importance of market competition in drug price reduction and quality medicine accessibility. Contentious issues prior to enactment of the law include 1) parallel importation, pointing out that the drug price will depend on the global market price, 2) contrasting approaches in the drafting of the law as the House version focused on medicine price control while the Senate version prioritized market competition, and 3) MNCs opposing the amendments with concerns on discrimination, constitutional violations, and noncompliance with international treaty obligations. There are also criticisms and challenges with the implementation of the law in terms of content or modeling, interpretation and implementation, and other external factors or hindrances. The law has been criticized for its narrow scope as it only covers specific essential medicines with no cooperation with the national health insurance program. Moreover, the law has sections taking advantage of the TRIPS flexibilities, which disallow smaller countries to reap the benefits of flexibilities. The sanctions and penalties have an insignificant role in implementation as they only ask for a small portion of the income of MNCs. Proposed recommendations for policy improvement include aligning existing legislation through strengthened price regulation and expanded law coverage, strengthening penalties to promote law adherence, and promoting research and development to encourage and support local initiatives. Through these comprehensive recommendations, the issues surrounding the policy can be addressed, and the goal of enhancing the affordability and accessibility of medicines in the country can be achieved.

Keywords: drug accessibility, drug affordability, price regulation, Republic Act 9502

Procedia PDF Downloads 33

Authors: Sohyoung Won, Heebal Kim, Dajeong Lim

Abstract:

Genomic prediction is an effective way to measure the abilities of livestock for breeding based on genomic estimated breeding values, statistically predicted values from genotype data using best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP). Using haplotypes, clusters of linked single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), as markers instead of individual SNPs can improve the reliability of genomic prediction since the probability of a quantitative trait loci to be in strong linkage disequilibrium (LD) with markers is higher. To efficiently use haplotypes in genomic prediction, finding optimal ways to define haplotypes is needed. In this study, 770K SNP chip data was collected from Hanwoo (Korean cattle) population consisted of 2506 cattle. Haplotypes were first defined in three different ways using 770K SNP chip data: haplotypes were defined based on 1) length of haplotypes (bp), 2) the number of SNPs, and 3) k-medoids clustering by LD. To compare the methods in parallel, haplotypes defined by all methods were set to have comparable sizes; in each method, haplotypes defined to have an average number of 5, 10, 20 or 50 SNPs were tested respectively. A modified GBLUP method using haplotype alleles as predictor variables was implemented for testing the prediction reliability of each haplotype set. Also, conventional genomic BLUP (GBLUP) method, which uses individual SNPs were tested to evaluate the performance of the haplotype sets on genomic prediction. Carcass weight was used as the phenotype for testing. As a result, using haplotypes defined by all three methods showed increased reliability compared to conventional GBLUP. There were not many differences in the reliability between different haplotype defining methods. The reliability of genomic prediction was highest when the average number of SNPs per haplotype was 20 in all three methods, implying that haplotypes including around 20 SNPs can be optimal to use as markers for genomic prediction. When the number of alleles generated by each haplotype defining methods was compared, clustering by LD generated the least number of alleles. Using haplotype alleles for genomic prediction showed better performance, suggesting improved accuracy in genomic selection. The number of predictor variables was decreased when the LD-based method was used while all three haplotype defining methods showed similar performances. This suggests that defining haplotypes based on LD can reduce computational costs and allows efficient prediction. Finding optimal ways to define haplotypes and using the haplotype alleles as markers can provide improved performance and efficiency in genomic prediction.

Keywords: best linear unbiased predictor, genomic prediction, haplotype, linkage disequilibrium

Procedia PDF Downloads 132

Authors: Amritee Bora, B. S. Mipun

Abstract:

Land degradation is often used to describe the land environmental phenomena that reduce land’s original productivity both qualitatively and quantitatively. The study of land degradation vulnerability primarily deals with “Environmentally Sensitive Areas” (ESA) and the amount of topsoil loss due to erosion. In many studies, it is observed that the assessment of the existing status of land degradation is used to represent the vulnerability. Moreover, it is also noticed that in most studies, the primary emphasis of land degradation vulnerability is to assess its sensitivity to soil erosion only. However, the concept of land degradation vulnerability can have different objectives depending upon the perspective of the study. It shows the extent to which changes in land use land cover can imprint their effect on the land. In other words, it represents the susceptibility of a piece of land to degrade its productive quality permanently or in the long run. It is also important to mention that the vulnerability of land degradation is not a single factor outcome. It is a probability assessment to evaluate the status of land degradation and needs to consider both biophysical and human induce parameters. To avoid the complexity of the previous models in this regard, the present study has emphasized on to generate a simplified model to assess the land degradation vulnerability in terms of its current human population pressure, land use practices, and existing biophysical conditions. It is a “Mixed-Method” termed as the land degradation vulnerability index (LDVi). It was originally inspired by the MEDALUS model (Mediterranean Desertification and Land Use), 1999, and Farazadeh’s 2007 revised version of it. It has followed the guidelines of Space Application Center, Ahmedabad / Indian Space Research Organization for land degradation vulnerability. The model integrates the climatic index (Ci), vegetation index (Vi), erosion index (Ei), land utilization index (Li), population pressure index (Pi), and cover management index (CMi) by giving equal weightage to each parameter. The final result shows that the very high vulnerable zone primarily indicates three (3) prominent circumstances; land under continuous population pressure, high concentration of human settlement, and high amount of topsoil loss due to surface runoff within the study sites. As all the parameters of the model are amalgamated with equal weightage further with the help of regression analysis, the LDVi model also provides a strong grasp of each parameter and how far they are competent to trigger the land degradation process.

Keywords: population pressure, land utilization, soil erosion, land degradation vulnerability

Procedia PDF Downloads 152

Authors: Idit Kalisher, Israel Luski

Abstract:

One result of the growing dynamicity of labor markets in recent decades is a wider scope of employment mobility – i.e., transitions between employers, either within or between careers. Employment mobility decisions are primarily affected by the current employment status of the worker, which is reflected in wage and tenure. Using 34,328 observations from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 (NLS79), which were derived from the USA population between 1990 and 2012, this paper aims to investigate the effects of wage and tenure over employment mobility choices, and additionally to examine the effects of other personal characteristics, individual labor market characteristics and macroeconomic factors. The estimation strategy was designed to address two challenges that arise from the combination of the model and the data: (a) endogeneity of the wage and the tenure in the choice equation; and (b) unobserved heterogeneity, as the data of this research is longitudinal. To address (a), estimation was performed using two-stage limited dependent variable procedure (2SLDV); and to address (b), the second stage was estimated using femlogit – an implementation of the multinomial logit model with fixed effects. Among workers who have experienced at least one turnover, the wage was found to have a main effect on career turnover likelihood of all workers, whereas the wage effect on job turnover likelihood was found to be dependent on individual characteristics. The wage was found to negatively affect the turnover likelihood and the effect was found to vary across wage level: high-wage workers were more affected compared to low-wage workers. Tenure was found to have a main positive effect on both turnover types’ likelihoods, though the effect was moderated by the wage. The findings also reveal that as their wage increases, women are more likely to turnover than men, and academically educated workers are more likely to turnover within careers. Minorities were found to be as likely as Caucasians to turnover post wage-increase, but less likely to turnover with each additional tenure year. The wage and the tenure effects were found to vary also between careers. The difference in attitude towards money, labor market opportunities and risk aversion could explain these findings. Additionally, the likelihood of a turnover was found to be affected by previous unemployment spells, age, and other labor market and personal characteristics. The results of this research could assist policymakers as well as business owners and employers. The former may be able to encourage women and older workers’ employment by considering the effects of gender and age on the probability of a turnover, and the latter may be able to assess their employees’ likelihood of a turnover by considering the effects of their personal characteristics.

Keywords: employment mobility, endogeneity, femlogit, turnover

Procedia PDF Downloads 136

Authors: C. Romero, R. Ortega, P. Sánchez-Camacho, P. Aguilar, V. Segur, J. Ruiz, G. Gutiérrez

Abstract:

Introduction: Breast cancer is a leading cause of death in CLM. (2.8% of all deaths in women and 13,8% of deaths from tumors in womens). It is the most tumor incidence in CLM region with 26.1% from all tumours, except nonmelanoma skin (Cancer Incidence in Five Continents, Volume X, IARC). Cancer registries are a good information source to estimate cancer incidence, however the data are usually available with a lag which makes difficult their use for health managers. By contrast, mortality and survival statistics have less delay. In order to serve for resource planning and responding to this problem, a method is presented to estimate the incidence of mortality and survival data. Objectives: To estimate the incidence of breast cancer by age group in CLM in the period 1991-2013. Comparing the data obtained from the model with current incidence data. Sources: Annual number of women by single ages (National Statistics Institute). Annual number of deaths by all causes and breast cancer. (Mortality Registry CLM). The Breast cancer relative survival probability. (EUROCARE, Spanish registries data). Methods: A Weibull Parametric survival model from EUROCARE data is obtained. From the model of survival, the population and population data, Mortality and Incidence Analysis MODel (MIAMOD) regression model is obtained to estimate the incidence of cancer by age (1991-2013). Results: The resulting model is: Ix,t = Logit [const + age1*x + age2*x2 + coh1*(t – x) + coh2*(t-x)2] Where: Ix,t is the incidence at age x in the period (year) t; the value of the parameter estimates is: const (constant term in the model) = -7.03; age1 = 3.31; age2 = -1.10; coh1 = 0.61 and coh2 = -0.12. It is estimated that in 1991 were diagnosed in CLM 662 cases of breast cancer (81.51 per 100,000 women). An estimated 1,152 cases (112.41 per 100,000 women) were diagnosed in 2013, representing an increase of 40.7% in gross incidence rate (1.9% per year). The annual average increases in incidence by age were: 2.07% in women aged 25-44 years, 1.01% (45-54 years), 1.11% (55-64 years) and 1.24% (65-74 years). Cancer registries in Spain that send data to IARC declared 2003-2007 the average annual incidence rate of 98.6 cases per 100,000 women. Our model can obtain an incidence of 100.7 cases per 100,000 women. Conclusions: A sharp and steady increase in the incidence of breast cancer in the period 1991-2013 is observed. The increase was seen in all age groups considered, although it seems more pronounced in young women (25-44 years). With this method you can get a good estimation of the incidence.

Keywords: breast cancer, incidence, cancer registries, castilla-la mancha

Procedia PDF Downloads 300

Authors: Kaori Narita, Juan de Dios Tena Horrillo, Claudio Detotto

Abstract:

Decisions on replacement of leaders are of significance and high prevalence in any organization, and concerns many of its stakeholders, whether it is a leader in a political party or a CEO of a firm, as indicated by high media coverage of such events. This merits an investigation into the consequences and implications of a leadership change on the performances and behavior of organizations and their workers. Sport economics provides a fruitful field to explore these issues due to the high frequencies of managerial changes in professional sports clubs and the transparency and regularity of observations of team performance and players’ abilities. Much of the existing research on managerial change focuses on how this affects the performance of an organization. However, there is scarcely attention paid to the consequences of such events on the behavior of individuals within the organization. Changes in behavior and attitudes of a group of workers due to a managerial change could be of great interest in management science, psychology, and operational research. On the other hand, these changes cannot be observed in the final outcome of the organization, as this is affected by many other unobserved shocks, for example, the stress level of workers with the need to deal with a difficult situation. To fill this gap, this study shows the first attempt to evaluate the impact of managerial change on players’ behaviors such as attack intensity, aggressiveness, and efforts. The data used in this study is from the top tier Italian football league (“Serie A”), where an average of 13 within season replacements of head coaches were observed over the period of seasons from 2000/2001 to 2017/18. The preliminary estimation employs Pooled Ordinary Least Square (POLS) and club-season Fixed Effect (FE) in order to assess the marginal effect of having a new manager on the number of shots, corners and red/yellow cards after controlling for a home-field advantage, ex ante abilities and current positions in the league of a team and their opponent. The results from this preliminary estimation suggest that the teams do not show a significant difference in their behaviors before and after the managerial change. To build on these preliminary results, other methods, including propensity score matching and non-linear model estimates, will be used. Moreover, the study will further investigate these issues by considering other measurements of attack intensity, aggressiveness, and efforts, such as possessions, a number of fouls and the athletic performance of players, respectively. Finally, the study is going to investigate whether these results vary over the characteristics of a new head coach, for example, their age and experience as a manager and a player. Thus far, this study suggests that certain behaviours of individuals in an organisation are not immediately affected by a change in leadership. To confirm this preliminary finding and lead to a more solid conclusion, further investigation will be conducted in the aforementioned manner, and the results will be elaborated in the conference.

Keywords: behaviour, effort, manager characteristics, managerial change, sport economics

Procedia PDF Downloads 118