Search results for: Process models

Authors: Nurul Bin Ibrahim

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Advancements in neural networks have offered valuable insights into Fluid Dynamics, notably in addressing turbulence-related challenges. In this research, we introduce multiple applications of models of neural networks, namely Feed-Forward and Recurrent Neural Networks, to explore the relationship between jet formations and stratified turbulence within stochastically excited Boussinesq systems. Using machine learning tools like TensorFlow and PyTorch, the study has created models that effectively mimic and show the underlying features of the complex patterns of jet formation and stratified turbulence. These models do more than just help us understand these patterns; they also offer a faster way to solve problems in stochastic systems, improving upon traditional numerical techniques to solve stochastic differential equations such as the Euler-Maruyama method. In addition, the research includes a thorough comparison with the Statistical State Dynamics (SSD) approach, which is a well-established method for studying chaotic systems. This comparison helps evaluate how well neural networks can help us understand the complex relationship between jet formations and stratified turbulence. The results of this study underscore the potential of neural networks in computational physics and fluid dynamics, opening up new possibilities for more efficient and accurate simulations in these fields.

Keywords: neural networks, machine learning, computational fluid dynamics, stochastic systems, simulation, stratified turbulence

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Authors: Rong-Tsorng Wang

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In this paper, we derive a pricing formula for catastrophe equity put options (or CatEPut) with non-homogeneous loss and approximated compound distributions. We assume that the loss claims arrival process is a nonhomogeneous Poisson process (NHPP) representing the clustering occurrences of loss claims, the size of loss claims is a sequence of independent and identically distributed random variables, and the accumulated loss distribution forms a compound distribution and is approximated by a heavy-tailed distribution. A numerical example is given to calibrate parameters, and we discuss how the value of CatEPut is affected by the changes of parameters in the pricing model we provided.

Keywords: catastrophe equity put options, compound distributions, nonhomogeneous Poisson process, pricing model

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Authors: Janne Engblom, Elias Oikarinen

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The understanding of housing price dynamics is of importance to a great number of agents: to portfolio investors, banks, real estate brokers and construction companies as well as to policy makers and households. A panel dataset is one that follows a given sample of individuals over time, and thus provides multiple observations on each individual in the sample. Panel data models include a variety of fixed and random effects models which form a wide range of linear models. A special case of panel data models is dynamic in nature. A complication regarding a dynamic panel data model that includes the lagged dependent variable is endogeneity bias of estimates. Several approaches have been developed to account for this problem. In this paper, the panel models were estimated using the Common Correlated Effects estimator (CCE) of dynamic panel data which also accounts for cross-sectional dependence which is caused by common structures of the economy. In presence of cross-sectional dependence standard OLS gives biased estimates. In this study, U.S housing price dynamics were examined empirically using the dynamic CCE estimator with first-difference of housing price as the dependent and first-differences of per capita income, interest rate, housing stock and lagged price together with deviation of housing prices from their long-run equilibrium level as independents. These deviations were also estimated from the data. The aim of the analysis was to provide estimates with comparisons of estimates between 1980-1999 and 2000-2012. Based on data of 50 U.S cities over 1980-2012 differences of short-run housing price dynamics estimates were mostly significant when two time periods were compared. Significance tests of differences were provided by the model containing interaction terms of independents and time dummy variable. Residual analysis showed very low cross-sectional correlation of the model residuals compared with the standard OLS approach. This means a good fit of CCE estimator model. Estimates of the dynamic panel data model were in line with the theory of housing price dynamics. Results also suggest that dynamics of a housing market is evolving over time.

Keywords: dynamic model, panel data, cross-sectional dependence, interaction model

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Authors: Adelia Desi Agnesita

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The advent of a new disease called covid-19 made many major changes in the world, one of which is the process of learning and teaching. Learning formerly offline but now is done online, which makes students need adaptation to the learning process. The covid-19 pandemic that occurs almost worldwide causes activities that involve many people to be avoided, one of which is learning to teach. In Indonesia, since March 2020, the process of college learning is turning into online/ long-distance learning. It's to prevent the spread of the covid-19. Student online learning presents some of the obstacles to poor signals, many of the tasks, lack of focus, difficulty sleeping, and resulting stress.

Keywords: learning, online, covid-19, pandemic

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Authors: Chai Mingming, Li Lei, Lu Xiaoxia

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In this paper, the mechanism of stratified liquids’ mixing in a cylinder is investigated. It is focused on the effects of Rayleigh-Taylor Instability (RTI) and rotation of the cylinder on liquid interface mixing. For miscible liquids, Planar Laser Induced Fluorescence (PLIF) technique is applied to record the concentration field for one liquid. Intensity of Segregation (IOS) is used to describe the mixing status. For immiscible liquids, High Speed Camera is adopted to record the development of the interface. The experiment of RTI indicates that it plays a great role in the mixing process, and meanwhile the large-scale mixing is triggered, and subsequently the span of the stripes decreases, showing that the mesoscale mixing is coming into being. The rotation experiments show that the spin-down process has a great role in liquid mixing, during which the upper liquid falls down rapidly along the wall and crashes into the lower liquid. During this process, a lot of interface instabilities are excited. Liquids mix rapidly in the spin-down process. It can be concluded that no matter what ways have been adopted to speed up liquid mixing, the fundamental reason is the interface instabilities which increase the area of the interface between liquids and increase the relative velocity of the two liquids.

Keywords: interface instability, liquid mixing, Rayleigh-Taylor Instability, spin-down process, spin-up process

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Authors: Yehjune Heo

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As biometric systems become widely deployed, the security of identification systems can be easily attacked by various spoof materials. This paper contributes to finding a reliable and practical anti-spoofing method using Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) based on the types of loss functions and optimizers. The types of CNNs used in this paper include AlexNet, VGGNet, and ResNet. By using various loss functions including Cross-Entropy, Center Loss, Cosine Proximity, and Hinge Loss, and various loss optimizers which include Adam, SGD, RMSProp, Adadelta, Adagrad, and Nadam, we obtained significant performance changes. We realize that choosing the correct loss function for each model is crucial since different loss functions lead to different errors on the same evaluation. By using a subset of the Livdet 2017 database, we validate our approach to compare the generalization power. It is important to note that we use a subset of LiveDet and the database is the same across all training and testing for each model. This way, we can compare the performance, in terms of generalization, for the unseen data across all different models. The best CNN (AlexNet) with the appropriate loss function and optimizers result in more than 3% of performance gain over the other CNN models with the default loss function and optimizer. In addition to the highest generalization performance, this paper also contains the models with high accuracy associated with parameters and mean average error rates to find the model that consumes the least memory and computation time for training and testing. Although AlexNet has less complexity over other CNN models, it is proven to be very efficient. For practical anti-spoofing systems, the deployed version should use a small amount of memory and should run very fast with high anti-spoofing performance. For our deployed version on smartphones, additional processing steps, such as quantization and pruning algorithms, have been applied in our final model.

Keywords: anti-spoofing, CNN, fingerprint recognition, loss function, optimizer

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Authors: Liam Fassam, Pouria Liravi, Jacquie Bridgman

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Introduction: The way we travel is rapidly changing, car ownership and use are declining among young people and those residents in urban areas. Also, the increasing role and popularity of sharing economy companies like Uber highlight a movement towards consuming transportation solutions as a service [Mobility of a Service]. This research looks to bridge the knowledge gap that exists between city mobility, smart cities, sharing economy and social entrepreneurship business models. Understanding of this subject is crucial for smart city design, as access to affordable transport has been identified as a contributing factor to social isolation leading to issues around health and wellbeing. Methodology: To explore the current fit vis-a-vis transportation business models and social impact this research undertook a comparative analysis between a systematic literature review and a Delphi study. The systematic literature review was undertaken to gain an appreciation of the current academic thinking on ‘social entrepreneurship and smart city mobility’. The second phase of the research initiated a Delphi study across a group of 22 participants to review future opinion on ‘how social entrepreneurship can assist city mobility sharing models?’. The Delphi delivered an initial 220 results, which once cross-checked for duplication resulted in 130. These 130 answers were sent back to participants to score importance against a 5-point LIKERT scale, enabling a top 10 listing of areas for shared user transports in society to be gleaned. One further round (4) identified no change in the coefficient of variant thus no further rounds were required. Findings: Initial results of the literature review returned 1,021 journals using the search criteria ‘social entrepreneurship and smart city mobility’. Filtering allied to ‘peer review’, ‘date’, ‘region’ and ‘Chartered associated of business school’ ranking proffered a resultant journal list of 75. Of these, 58 focused on smart city design, 9 on social enterprise in cityscapes, 6 relating to smart city network design and 3 on social impact, with no journals purporting the need for social entrepreneurship to be allied to city mobility. The future inclusion factors from the Delphi expert panel indicated that smart cities needed to include shared economy models in their strategies. Furthermore, social isolation born by costs of infrastructure needed addressing through holistic A-political social enterprise models, and a better understanding of social benefit measurement is needed. Conclusion: In investigating the collaboration between key public transportation stakeholders, a theoretical model of social enterprise transportation models that positively impact upon the smart city needs of reduced transport poverty and social isolation was formed. As such, the research has identified how a revised business model of Mobility of a Service allied to a social entrepreneurship can deliver impactful measured social benefits associated to smart city design existent research.

Keywords: social enterprise, collaborative transportation, new models of ownership, transport social impact

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Authors: Haibo Zhao, Thomas Andre, Katherine Avery, Alper Kiziltas, Deborah Mielewski

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Silica aerogels were fabricated through a modified rapid supercritical extraction (RSCE) process. The silica aerogels were made using a tetramethyl orthosilicate precursor and then placed in a hot press and brought to the supercritical point of the solvent, ethanol. In order to control the pressure release without a pressure controller, a needle valve was used. The resulting aerogels were then characterized for their physical and chemical properties and compared to silica aerogels created using similar methods. The aerogels fabricated using this modified RSCE method were found to have similar properties to those in other papers using the unmodified RSCE method. Silica aerogel infused glass blanket composite, graphene reinforced silica aerogel composite were also successfully fabricated by this new method. The modified RSCE process and system is a prototype for better gas outflow control with a lower cost of equipment setup. Potentially, this process could be evolved to a continuous low-cost high-volume production process to meet automotive requirements.

Keywords: aerogel, automotive, rapid supercritical extraction process, low cost production

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Authors: Yongjiang Zhang, Kallol Barai, Umesh R. Hodeghatta, Trang Tran, Vikas Dhiman

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Detecting water stress on crops early and accurately is crucial to minimize its impact. This study aims to measure water stress in wild blueberry crops non-destructively by analyzing proximal hyperspectral data. The data collection took place in the summer growing season of 2022. A drought experiment was conducted on wild blueberries in the randomized block design in the greenhouse, incorporating various genotypes and irrigation treatments. Hyperspectral data ( spectral range: 400-1000 nm) using a handheld spectroradiometer and leaf water potential data using a pressure chamber were collected from wild blueberry plants. Machine learning techniques, including multiple regression analysis and random forest models, were employed to predict leaf water potential (MPa). We explored the optimal wavelength bands for simple differences (RY1-R Y2), simple ratios (RY1/RY2), and normalized differences (|RY1-R Y2|/ (RY1-R Y2)). NDWI ((R857 - R1241)/(R857 + R1241)), SD (R2188 – R2245), and SR (R1752 / R1756) emerged as top predictors for predicting leaf water potential, significantly contributing to the highest model performance. The base learner models achieved an R-squared value of approximately 0.81, indicating their capacity to explain 81% of the variance. Research is underway to develop a neural vegetation index (NVI) that automates the process of index development by searching for specific wavelengths in the space ratio of linear functions of reflectance. The NVI framework could work across species and predict different physiological parameters.

Keywords: hyperspectral reflectance, water potential, spectral indices, machine learning, wild blueberries, optimal bands

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Authors: Mathias B. Michael, Esther T. Akinlabi, Tien-Chien Jen

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Thermal energy consumption in palm oil production plant comprises mainly of steam, hot water and hot air. In most efficient plants, hot water and air are generated from the steam supply system. Research has shown that thermal energy utilize in palm oil production plants is about 70 percent of the total energy consumption of the plant. In order to manage the plants’ energy efficiently, the energy systems are modelled and optimized. This paper aimed to present the model of steam supply systems of a typical palm oil production plant in Ghana. The models include exergy and energy models of steam boiler, steam turbine and the palm oil mill. The paper further simulates the virtual plant model to obtain the thermal energy performance of the plant under study. The simulation results show that, under normal operating condition, the boiler energy performance is considerably below the expected level as a result of several factors including intermittent biomass fuel supply, significant moisture content of the biomass fuel and significant heat losses. The total thermal energy performance of the virtual plant is set as a baseline. The study finally recommends number of energy efficiency measures to improve the plant’s energy performance.

Keywords: palm biomass, steam supply, exergy and energy models, energy performance benchmark

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Authors: Reza E. Sedgh, Rajesh P. Dhakal

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Shear walls have been used extensively as the main lateral force resisting systems in multi-storey buildings. The recent development in performance based design urges practicing engineers to conduct nonlinear static or dynamic analysis to evaluate seismic performance of multi-storey shear wall buildings by employing distinct analytical models suggested in the literature. For practical purpose, application of macroscopic models to simulate the global and local nonlinear behavior of structural walls outweighs the microscopic models. The skill level, computational time and limited access to RC specialized finite element packages prevents the general application of this method in performance based design or assessment of multi-storey shear wall buildings in design offices. Hence, this paper organized to verify capability of nonlinear shell element in commercially available package (Sap2000) in simulating results of some specimens under monotonic and cyclic loads with very oversimplified available cyclic material laws in the analytical tool. The selection of constitutive models, the determination of related parameters of the constituent material and appropriate nonlinear shear model are presented in detail. Adoption of proposed simple model demonstrated that the predicted results follow the overall trend of experimental force-displacement curve. Although, prediction of ultimate strength and the overall shape of hysteresis model agreed to some extent with experiment, the ultimate displacement(significant strength degradation point) prediction remains challenging in some cases.

Keywords: analytical model, nonlinear shell element, structural wall, shear behavior

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Authors: Siti Nurhidayah Naqiah Abdull Rani, Herlina Abdul Rahim, Rashidah Ghazali, Noramli Abdul Razak

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Near infrared (NIR) spectroscopy has always been of great interest in the food and agriculture industries. The development of prediction models has facilitated the estimation process in recent years. In this study, 110 crude palm oil (CPO) samples were used to build a free fatty acid (FFA) prediction model. 60% of the collected data were used for training purposes and the remaining 40% used for testing. The visible peaks on the NIR spectrum were at 1725 nm and 1760 nm, indicating the existence of the first overtone of C-H bands. Principal component regression (PCR) was applied to the data in order to build this mathematical prediction model. The optimal number of principal components was 10. The results showed R2=0.7147 for the training set and R2=0.6404 for the testing set.

Keywords: palm oil, fatty acid, NIRS, regression

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Authors: Keisuke Takahata, Hiroshi Suetsugu

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Forest height is an important parameter for forest biomass estimation, and precise elevation data is essential for accurate forest height estimation. There are several globally or nationally available digital elevation models (DEMs) like SRTM and ASTER. However, its accuracy is reported to be low particularly in mountainous areas where there are closed canopy or steep slope. Recently, space-borne LiDAR, such as the Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI), have started to provide sparse but accurate ground elevation and canopy height estimates. Several studies have reported the high degree of accuracy in their elevation products on their exact footprints, while it is not clear how this sparse information can be used for wider area. In this study, we developed a digital terrain model correction algorithm by spatially interpolating the difference between existing DEMs and GEDI elevation products by using Gaussian Process (GP) regression model. The result shows that our GP-based methodology can reduce the mean bias of the elevation data from 3.7m to 0.3m when we use airborne LiDAR-derived elevation information as ground truth. Our algorithm is also capable of quantifying the elevation data uncertainty, which is critical requirement for biomass inventory. Upcoming satellite-LiDAR missions, like MOLI (Multi-footprint Observation Lidar and Imager), are expected to contribute to the more accurate digital terrain model generation.

Keywords: digital terrain model, satellite LiDAR, gaussian processes, uncertainty quantification

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Authors: Chaiwat Tantarangsee

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The purposes of this study are 1) to study the effects of participatory error correction process and 2) to find out the students’ satisfaction of such error correction process. This study is a Quasi Experimental Research with single group, in which data is collected 5 times preceding and following 4 experimental studies of participatory error correction process including providing coded indirect corrective feedback in the students’ texts with error treatment activities. Samples include 28 2nd year English Major students, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, Suan Sunandha Rajabhat University. Tool for experimental study includes the lesson plan of the course; Reading and Writing English for Academic Purposes II, and tools for data collection include 5 writing tests of short texts and a questionnaire. Based on formative evaluation of the students’ writing ability prior to and after each of the 4 experiments, the research findings disclose the students’ higher scores with statistical difference at 0.05. Moreover, in terms of the effect size of such process, it is found that for mean of the students’ scores prior to and after the 4 experiments; d equals 1.0046, 1.1374, 1.297, and 1.0065 respectively. It can be concluded that participatory error correction process enables all of the students to learn equally well and there is improvement in their ability to write short texts. Finally, the students’ overall satisfaction of the participatory error correction process is in high level (Mean=4.32, S.D.=0.92).

Keywords: coded indirect corrective feedback, participatory error correction process, error treatment, humanities and social sciences

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Authors: Magdalena Idzikowska, Katarzyna Pająk, Kamil Kowalczyk

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Seafloor topography is a fundamental issue in geological, geophysical, and oceanographic studies. Single-beam or multibeam sonars attached to the hulls of ships are used to emit a hydroacoustic signal from transducers and reproduce the topography of the seabed. This solution provides relevant accuracy and spatial resolution. Bathymetric data from ships surveys provides National Centers for Environmental Information – National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Unfortunately, most of the seabed is still unidentified, as there are still many gaps to be explored between ship survey tracks. Moreover, such measurements are very expensive and time-consuming. The solution is raster bathymetric models shared by The General Bathymetric Chart of the Oceans. The offered products are a compilation of different sets of data - raw or processed. Indirect data for the development of bathymetric models are also measurements of gravity anomalies. Some forms of seafloor relief (e.g. seamounts) increase the force of the Earth's pull, leading to changes in the sea surface. Based on satellite altimetry data, Sea Surface Height and marine gravity anomalies can be estimated, and based on the anomalies, it’s possible to infer the structure of the seabed. The main goal of the work is to create regional bathymetric models and models of the sea surface in the area of the east coast of North America – a region of seamounts and undulating seafloor. The research includes an analysis of the methods and techniques used, an evaluation of the interpolation algorithms used, model thickening, and the creation of grid models. Obtained data are raster bathymetric models in NetCDF format, survey data from multibeam soundings in MB-System format, and satellite altimetry data from Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service. The methodology includes data extraction, processing, mapping, and spatial analysis. Visualization of the obtained results was carried out with Geographic Information System tools. The result is an extension of the state of the knowledge of the quality and usefulness of the data used for seabed and sea surface modeling and knowledge of the accuracy of the generated models. Sea level is averaged over time and space (excluding waves, tides, etc.). Its changes, along with knowledge of the topography of the ocean floor - inform us indirectly about the volume of the entire water ocean. The true shape of the ocean surface is further varied by such phenomena as tides, differences in atmospheric pressure, wind systems, thermal expansion of water, or phases of ocean circulation. Depending on the location of the point, the higher the depth, the lower the trend of sea level change. Studies show that combining data sets, from different sources, with different accuracies can affect the quality of sea surface and seafloor topography models.

Keywords: seafloor, sea surface height, bathymetry, satellite altimetry

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Authors: Kwan Hee Han

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External environment of enterprise is rapidly changing majorly by global competition, cost reduction pressures, and new technology. In these situations, production scheduling function plays a critical role to meet customer requirements and to attain the goal of operational efficiency. It deals with short-term decision making in the production process of the whole supply chain. The major task of production scheduling is to seek a balance between customer orders and limited resources. In manufacturing companies, this task is so difficult because it should efficiently utilize resource capacity under the careful consideration of many interacting constraints. At present, many computerized software solutions have been utilized in many enterprises to generate a realistic production schedule to overcome the complexity of schedule generation. However, most production scheduling systems do not provide sufficient information about the validity of the generated schedule except limited statistics. Process mining only recently emerged as a sub-discipline of both data mining and business process management. Process mining techniques enable the useful analysis of a wide variety of processes such as process discovery, conformance checking, and bottleneck analysis. In this study, the performance of generated production schedule is evaluated by mining event log data of production scheduling software system by using the process mining techniques since every software system generates event logs for the further use such as security investigation, auditing and error bugging. An application of process mining approach is proposed for the validation of the goodness of production schedule generated by scheduling software systems in this study. By using process mining techniques, major evaluation criteria such as utilization of workstation, existence of bottleneck workstations, critical process route patterns, and work load balance of each machine over time are measured, and finally, the goodness of production schedule is evaluated. By using the proposed process mining approach for evaluating the performance of generated production schedule, the quality of production schedule of manufacturing enterprises can be improved.

Keywords: data mining, event log, process mining, production scheduling

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Authors: Chandra Prayaga, Aaron Wade, Lakshmi Prayaga, Gopi Shankar Mallu

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This paper presents the use of machine learning algorithms to predict the success of students in an introductory physics course. Data having 140 rows pertaining to the performance of two batches of students was used. The lack of sufficient data to train robust machine learning models was compensated for by generating synthetic data similar to the real data. CTGAN and CTGAN with Gaussian Copula (Gaussian) were used to generate synthetic data, with the real data as input. To check the similarity between the real data and each synthetic dataset, pair plots were made. The synthetic data was used to train machine learning models using the PyCaret package. For the CTGAN data, the Ada Boost Classifier (ADA) was found to be the ML model with the best fit, whereas the CTGAN with Gaussian Copula yielded Logistic Regression (LR) as the best model. Both models were then tested for accuracy with the real data. ROC-AUC analysis was performed for all the ten classes of the target variable (Grades A, A-, B+, B, B-, C+, C, C-, D, F). The ADA model with CTGAN data showed a mean AUC score of 0.4377, but the LR model with the Gaussian data showed a mean AUC score of 0.6149. ROC-AUC plots were obtained for each Grade value separately. The LR model with Gaussian data showed consistently better AUC scores compared to the ADA model with CTGAN data, except in two cases of the Grade value, C- and A-.

Keywords: machine learning, student success, physics course, grades, synthetic data, CTGAN, gaussian copula CTGAN

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Authors: Wanhyun Cho, Soonja Kang, Sanggoon Kim, Soonyoung Park

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We present probabilistic multinomial Dirichlet classification model for multidimensional data and Gaussian process priors. Here, we have considered an efficient computational method that can be used to obtain the approximate posteriors for latent variables and parameters needed to define the multiclass Gaussian process classification model. We first investigated the process of inducing a posterior distribution for various parameters and latent function by using the variational Bayesian approximations and important sampling method, and next we derived a predictive distribution of latent function needed to classify new samples. The proposed model is applied to classify the synthetic multivariate dataset in order to verify the performance of our model. Experiment result shows that our model is more accurate than the other approximation methods.

Keywords: multinomial dirichlet classification model, Gaussian process priors, variational Bayesian approximation, importance sampling, approximate posterior distribution, marginal likelihood evidence

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Authors: Stefano Frassinelli, Alessandro Niccolai, Riccardo E. Zich

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Diving is an important Olympic sport. In this sport, the effective performance of the athlete is related to his capability to interact correctly with the springboard. In fact, the elevation of the jump and the correctness of the dive are influenced by the vibrations of the board. In this paper, the vibrations of the springboard will be analyzed by means of typical tools for vibration analysis: Firstly, a modal analysis will be done on two different models of the springboard, then, these two model and another one will be analyzed with a time analysis, done integrating the equations of motion od deformable bodies. All these analyses will be compared with experimental data measured on a real springboard by means of a 6-axis accelerometer; these measurements are aimed to assess the models proposed. The acquired data will be analyzed both in frequency domain and in time domain.

Keywords: springboard analysis, modal analysis, time domain analysis, vibrations

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Authors: Harika Dasari, Eric Eisenbraun

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The present study models the role of electrode structural characteristics on the thermal behavior of lithium-ion batteries. Preliminary modeling runs have employed a 1D lithium-ion battery coupled to a two-dimensional axisymmetric model using silicon as the battery anode material. The two models are coupled by the heat generated and the average temperature. Our study is focused on the silicon anode particle sizes and it is observed that silicon anodes with nano-sized particles reduced the temperature of the battery in comparison to anodes with larger particles. These results are discussed in the context of the relationship between particle size and thermal transport properties in the electrode.

Keywords: particle size, NMC, silicon, heat generation, separator

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Authors: Rashid S. Mohammad, Shicheng Zhang, Sun Lu, Syed Jamal-Ud-Din, Xinzhe Zhao

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A compositional reservoir simulation model (CMG-GEM) was used for cyclic CO₂ injection process in unconventional tight reservoir. Cyclic CO₂ injection is an enhanced oil recovery process consisting of injection, shut-in, and production. The study of cyclic CO₂ injection and hydrocarbon recovery in ultra-low permeability reservoirs is mainly a function of rock, fluid, and operational parameters. CMG-GEM was used to study several design parameters of cyclic CO₂ injection process to distinguish the parameters with maximum effect on the oil recovery and to comprehend the behavior of cyclic CO₂ injection in tight reservoir. On the other hand, permeability reduction induced by asphaltene precipitation is one of the major issues in the oil industry due to its plugging onto the porous media which reduces the oil productivity. In addition to asphaltene deposition, solubility of CO₂ in the aquifer is one of the safest and permanent trapping techniques when considering CO₂ storage mechanisms in geological formations. However, the effects of the above uncertain parameters on the process of CO₂ enhanced oil recovery have not been understood systematically. Hence, it is absolutely necessary to study the most significant parameters which dominate the process. The main objective of this study is to improve techniques for designing cyclic CO₂ injection process while considering the effects of asphaltene deposition and solubility of CO₂ in the brine in order to prevent asphaltene precipitation, minimize CO₂ emission, optimize cyclic CO₂ injection, and maximize oil production.

Keywords: tight reservoirs, cyclic O₂ injection, asphaltene, solubility, reservoir simulation

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Authors: M. A. Sohaly, M. A. Elfouly

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Parkinson's disease (PD) is a heterogeneous movement disorder that often appears in the elderly. PD is induced by a loss of dopamine secretion. Some drugs increase the secretion of dopamine. In this paper, we will simply study the stability of PD models as a nonlinear delay differential equation. After a period of taking drugs, these act as positive feedback and increase the tremors of patients, and then, the differential equation has positive coefficients and the system is unstable under these conditions. We will present a set of suggested modifications to make the system more compatible with the biodynamic system. When giving a set of numerical examples, this research paper is concerned with the mathematical analysis, and no clinical data have been used.

Keywords: Parkinson's disease, stability, simulation, two delay differential equation

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Authors: Sheikh Samsuzzhan Alam

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The present study investigates the selection of variogram model in analyzing spatial variations of environmental variables with the trend. Sometimes, the autofitted theoretical variogram does not really capture the true nature of the empirical semivariogram. So proper exploration and analysis are needed to select the best variogram model. For this study, an open source data collected from California Soil Resource Lab1 is used to explain the problems when fitting a theoretical variogram. Five most commonly used variogram models: Linear, Gaussian, Exponential, Matern, and Spherical were fitted to the experimental semivariogram. Ordinary kriging methods were considered to evaluate the accuracy of the selected variograms through cross-validation. This study is beneficial for selecting an appropriate theoretical variogram model for environmental variables.

Keywords: anisotropy, cross-validation, environmental variables, kriging, variogram models

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Authors: Swati Tomar, Sunil Kumar Gupta

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Anammox is a novel and promising technology that has changed the traditional concept of biological nitrogen removal. The process facilitates direct oxidation of ammonical nitrogen under anaerobic conditions with nitrite as an electron acceptor without the addition of external carbon sources. The present study investigated the feasibility of anammox hybrid reactor (AHR) combining the dual advantages of suspended and attached growth media for biodegradation of ammonical nitrogen in wastewater. The experimental unit consisted of 4 nos. of 5L capacity AHR inoculated with mixed seed culture containing anoxic and activated sludge (1:1). The process was established by feeding the reactors with synthetic wastewater containing NH4-H and NO2-N in the ratio 1:1 at HRT (hydraulic retention time) of 1 day. The reactors were gradually acclimated to higher ammonium concentration till it attained pseudo steady state removal at a total nitrogen concentration of 1200 mg/l. During this period, the performance of the AHR was monitored at twelve different HRTs varying from 0.25-3.0 d with increasing NLR from 0.4 to 4.8 kg N/m3d. AHR demonstrated significantly higher nitrogen removal (95.1%) at optimal HRT of 1 day. Filter media in AHR contributed an additional 27.2% ammonium removal in addition to 72% reduction in the sludge washout rate. This may be attributed to the functional mechanism of filter media which acts as a mechanical sieve and reduces the sludge washout rate many folds. This enhances the biomass retention capacity of the reactor by 25%, which is the key parameter for successful operation of high rate bioreactors. The effluent nitrate concentration, which is one of the bottlenecks of anammox process was also minimised significantly (42.3-52.3 mg/L). Process kinetics was evaluated using first order and Grau-second order models. The first-order substrate removal rate constant was found as 13.0 d-1. Model validation revealed that Grau second order model was more precise and predicted effluent nitrogen concentration with least error (1.84±10%). A new mathematical model based on mass balance was developed to predict N2 gas in AHR. The mass balance model derived from total nitrogen dictated significantly higher correlation (R2=0.986) and predicted N2 gas with least error of precision (0.12±8.49%). SEM study of biomass indicated the presence of the heterogeneous population of cocci and rod shaped bacteria of average diameter varying from 1.2-1.5 mm. Owing to enhanced NRE coupled with meagre production of effluent nitrate and its ability to retain high biomass, AHR proved to be the most competitive reactor configuration for dealing with nitrogen laden wastewater.

Keywords: anammox, filter media, kinetics, nitrogen removal

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Authors: Farzaneh Bahrami

Abstract:

Different indicators, such as modal shares in mobility practices or car ownership, may suggest that the century of car dominance - at least in Europe and North America - is already behind us. If the emergence of the car had radical spatial and social consequences, what would be the implications of its gradual disappearance - which could be expected in the context of ecological consciousness, economic and energetic constraints as a result of both urban policies as well as lifestyle choices? To what extend shall urban experts account for this limited but visible transition from car-dominated systems towards alternative models of mobility in which the individual-motorized mobility (car) is not central; what models of urbanity could be imagined to support such a transformation? We have examined a selection of projects at different scales and within different contexts - new planned cities, dense urban areas or territories of dispersion – whose visions involve a significant shift from the current car system. We have been looking into their tools, strategies and different measures of car reduction, as well as their varied approaches to public space as an inevitable corollary to this change. The car’s dominance was formerly questioned by advocates of public space, rather than through interests in ecological urban design or other urban planning concerns. In the 60s already a universal longing for the qualities of traditional urban space led to a critique of the proliferation of fast roads, and thus the car’s colonization of everyday life. Reclamation of public space as the city’s quintessential social territory reappears today in contemporary discourses and reinforces the shift-provoking trends towards a new urbanity freed from car dominance. In a hypothetical process of the progressive phasing-out of the car, we shall expect fundamental transformations in spatial practices of the city, accompanied by the physical configuration of its public spaces. What will be the main characteristics of the new emerging spaces of sociability and where shall we encounter them? This contribution is an ongoing research within the framework of Post-Car World, an interdisciplinary project that explores the future of mobility through the role of the car.

Keywords: mobility, urbanity, future visions, public space

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Authors: Sanja Podunavac-Kuzmanović, Denis Kučević, Strahinja Kovačević, Milica Karadžić, Lidija Jevrić

Abstract:

The present study describes the application of chemometric methods in analysis of milk samples which were collected in a conventional dairy farm and an organic dairy farm in AP Vojvodina, Republic of Serbia. The chemometric analysis included the application of univariate regression modeling and Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) method. The ANOVA was used in order to determine the differences in fatty acids content in the milk samples from conventional and organic farm. The results of the ANOVA testing indicate that there is a highly statistically significant difference between the content of fatty acid (saturated fatty acid vs. unsaturated fatty acids) in different dairy farming. Besides, the linear univariate models have been obtained as a result of modeling the linear relationships between the milk fat content and saturated fatty acids content, and the linear relationships between the milk fat content and unsaturated fatty acids content. The models obtained on the basis of the milk samples which originate from the organic farming are statistically better than the models based on the milk samples from conventional farming.

Keywords: hemometrics, milk, organic farming, quality control

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Authors: Itai Kohavi, Wojciech Nowiak

Abstract:

This article explores the stagnation of the Israeli -Palestinian peace negotiation process, and the reasons behind the failure of more than 12 international initiatives to resolve the conflict. Twenty-seven top members of the Israeli national security elite (INSE) were interviewed, including heads of the negotiation teams, the National Security Council, the Mossad, and other intelligence and planning arms. The interviewees provided their insights on the Israeli challenges in reaching a sustainable and stable peace agreement and in dealing with the international pressure on Israel to negotiate a peace agreement while preventing anti-Israeli UN decisions and sanctions. The findings revealed a decision tree, with red herring deception strategies implemented to postpone the negotiation process and to delay major decisions during the negotiation process. Beyond the possible applications for the Israeli – Palestinian conflict, the findings shed more light on the phenomenon of rational deception of allies in a negotiation process, a subject less frequently researched as compared with deception of rivals.

Keywords: deception, Israeli-Palestinian conflict, negotiation, red herring, terrorist state, treadmill negotiation

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Authors: Yina F. Muñoz, Alexander Paz, Hanns De La Fuente-Mella, Joaquin V. Fariña, Guilherme M. Sales

Abstract:

The primary approach for estimating bridge deterioration uses Markov-chain models and regression analysis. Traditional Markov models have problems in estimating the required transition probabilities when a small sample size is used. Often, reliable bridge data have not been taken over large periods, thus large data sets may not be available. This study presents an important change to the traditional approach by using the Small Data Method to estimate transition probabilities. The results illustrate that the Small Data Method and traditional approach both provide similar estimates; however, the former method provides results that are more conservative. That is, Small Data Method provided slightly lower than expected bridge condition ratings compared with the traditional approach. Considering that bridges are critical infrastructures, the Small Data Method, which uses more information and provides more conservative estimates, may be more appropriate when the available sample size is small. In addition, regression analysis was used to calculate bridge deterioration. Condition ratings were determined for bridge groups, and the best regression model was selected for each group. The results obtained were very similar to those obtained when using Markov chains; however, it is desirable to use more data for better results.

Keywords: concrete bridges, deterioration, Markov chains, probability matrix

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Authors: Chen-Fang Tsai, Shin-Li Lu

Abstract:

Distribution-free control chart is an oncoming area from the statistical process control charts in recent years. Some researchers have developed various nonparametric control charts and investigated the detection capability of these charts. The major advantage of nonparametric control charts is that the underlying process is not specifically considered the assumption of normality or any parametric distribution. In this paper, two nonparametric exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control charts based on nonparametric tests, namely NE-S and NE-M control charts, are proposed for monitoring process variability. Generally, weighted moving average (GWMA) control charts are extended by utilizing design and adjustment parameters for monitoring the changes in the process variability, namely NG-S and NG-M control charts. Statistical performance is also investigated on NG-S and NG-M control charts with run rules. Moreover, sensitivity analysis is performed to show the effects of design parameters under the nonparametric NG-S and NG-M control charts.

Keywords: Distribution-free control chart, EWMA control charts, GWMA control charts

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Authors: Arian Hosseini, Mahmudul Hasan

Abstract:

To address the increasing need for efficient and accurate content moderation, we propose an efficient and lightweight deep classification ensemble structure. Our approach is based on a combination of simple visual features, designed for high-accuracy classification of violent content with low false positives. Our ensemble architecture utilizes a set of lightweight models with narrowed-down color features, and we apply it to both images and videos. We evaluated our approach using a large dataset of explosion and blast contents and compared its performance to popular deep learning models such as ResNet-50. Our evaluation results demonstrate significant improvements in prediction accuracy, while benefiting from 7.64x faster inference and lower computation cost. While our approach is tailored to explosion detection, it can be applied to other similar content moderation and violence detection use cases as well. Based on our experiments, we propose a "think small, think many" philosophy in classification scenarios. We argue that transforming a single, large, monolithic deep model into a verification-based step model ensemble of multiple small, simple, and lightweight models with narrowed-down visual features can possibly lead to predictions with higher accuracy.

Keywords: deep classification, content moderation, ensemble learning, explosion detection, video processing

Procedia PDF Downloads 55