Search results for: critical decision method

Authors: Justin Fu, Thomas Mazzuchi, Shahram Sarkani

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A key factor in technological immaturity in defense weapons acquisition is lack of understanding critical integrations at the subsystem and component level. To address this shortfall, recent research in integration readiness level (IRL) combines with technology readiness level (TRL) to form a system readiness level (SRL). SRL can be enriched with more robust quantitative methods to provide the program manager a useful tool prior to committing to major weapons acquisition programs. This research harnesses previous mathematical models based on graph theory, Petri nets, and tropical algebra and proposes a modification of the desirable SRL mathematical properties such that a tightly integrated (multitude of interfaces) subsystem can display a lower SRL than an inherently less coupled subsystem. The synthesis of these methods informs an improved decision tool for the program manager to commit to expensive technology development. This research ties the separately developed manufacturing readiness level (MRL) into the network representation of the system and addresses shortfalls in previous frameworks, including the lack of integration weighting and the over-importance of a single extremely immature component. Tropical algebra (based on the minimum of a set of TRLs or IRLs) allows one low IRL or TRL value to diminish the SRL of the entire system, which may not be reflective of actuality if that component is not critical or tightly coupled. Integration connections can be weighted according to importance and readiness levels are modified to be a cardinal scale (based on an analytic hierarchy process). Integration arcs’ importance are dependent on the connected nodes and the additional integrations arcs connected to those nodes. Lack of integration is not represented by zero, but by a perfect integration maturity value. Naturally, the importance (or weight) of such an arc would be zero. To further explore the impact of grouping subsystems, a multi-objective genetic algorithm is then used to find various clusters or communities that can be optimized for the most representative subsystem SRL. This novel calculation is then benchmarked through simulation and using past defense acquisition program data, focusing on the newly introduced Middle Tier of Acquisition (rapidly field prototypes). The model remains a relatively simple, accessible tool, but at higher fidelity and validated with past data for the program manager to decide major defense acquisition program milestones.

Keywords: readiness, maturity, system, integration

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Authors: Berrin Şentürk

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In this study, due to the recurrence of bovine tuberculosis, in the same areas, the risk factors for the disease were determined and evaluated at the local level. This study was carried out in 32 farms where the disease was detected in the district and center of Samsun province in 2014. Predetermined risk factors, such as farm, environmental and economic risks, were investigated with the survey method. It was predetermined that risks in the three groups are similar to the risk variables of the disease on the global scale. These risk factors that increase the susceptibility of the infection must be understood by the herd owners. The risk-based contagious disease management system approach should be applied for bovine tuberculosis by farmers, animal health professionals and public and private sector decision makers.

Keywords: bovine tuberculosis, disease management, control, outbreak, risk analysis

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Authors: Clarice Zimbili Zondi

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This study investigates the effect of restorative justice programmes offered to offenders in prison environment (Correctional Centres) during their rehabilitation. The study looks specifically to programmes offered by a Non-Profit Organisation (NPO), Phoenix Zululand (PZ) in twelve (12) different prisons in Zululand, South Africa. Document analysis, interviews and participant observation methods were used to test whether the work done by Phoenix Zululand is in line with the remarks made on restorative justice as encapsulated in the White Paper on Corrections 2005 in South Africa. Also tested was whether a better understanding of restorative justice programmes assists in coming up with better strategies to change the behaviour of offenders. The study findings discovered that the work that is done by PZ is not in line with the remarks made in the White Paper on Corrections. Also the importance of a full comprehension of what one is doing in order to be effective in rehabilitation. However, rehabilitation that is aimed at only changing the decision-making processes of offenders not to reoffend, does not serve as a total rehabilitation programme. Rehabilitation is only successful if ex-offenders, whilst still in prison, have developed market-related skills and become employed or self-employed. Restorative Justice Programmes offered by PZ, although they play a critical role, appears to be lacking in equipping offenders with skills for effective reintegration into society and, subsequently, self-reliance.

Keywords: offender, rehabilitation, restorative justice, prison

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Authors: Olga Blasco-Blasco, Vicente Liern

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The development of tourism since the mid-20th century has raised problems of overcrowding, indiscriminate construction in seaside areas and gentrification. Increasingly, the World Tourism Organisation and public institutions are promoting policies that encourage sustainability. From the perspective of sustainability, three types of tourism can be established: traditional tourism, sustainable tourism and sustainable impact tourism. Measuring sustainability is complex due to its multiple dimensions of different relative importance and diversity in nature. In order to try to answer this problem and to identify the benefits of applying policies that promote sustainable tourism, a decision-making analysis will be carried out through the application of a multicriteria analysis method. The proposal is applied to hotel reservations and to the evaluation and management of tourism sustainability in the Spanish Autonomous Communities.

Keywords: sustainable tourism, multicriteria analysis, flexible optimization, composite indicators

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Authors: Michelann Parr

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Family-school-community engagement enhances family-school-community well-being, collective confidence, and school climate. While it is often referred to as a positive thing in the literature for families, schools, and communities, it does not come without its struggles. While there are numerous things families, schools, and communities do each and every day to enhance engagement, it is often difficult to find our way to true belonging and engagement. Working our way surface level barriers is easy; we can provide childcare, transportation, resources, and refreshments. We can even change the environment so that families will feel welcome, valued, and respected. But there are often mindsets and perpsectives buried deep below the surface, most often grounded in societal, familial, and political norms, expectations, pressures, and narratives. This work requires ongoing energy, commitment, and engagement of all stakeholders, including families, schools, and communities. Each and every day, we need to take a reflective and introspective stance at what is said and done and how it supports the overall goal of family-school-community engagement. And whatever we must occur within a paradigm of care in additional to one of critical thinking and social justice. Families, and those working with families, must not simply accept all that is given, but should instead ask these types of questions: a) How, and by whom, are the current philosophies and practices of family-school engagement interrogated? b) How might digging below surface level meanings support understanding of what is being said and done? c) How can we move toward meaningful and authentic engagement that balances knowledge and power between family, school, district, community (local and global), and government? This type of work requires conscious attention and intentional decision-making at all levels bringing us one step closer to authentic and meaningful partnerships. Strategies useful to building a growth mindset include: a) interrogating and exploring consistencies and inconsistencies by looking at what is done and what is not done through multiple perspectives; b) recognizing that enhancing family-engagement and changing mindsets take place at the micro-level (e.g., family and school), but also require active engagement and awareness at the macro-level (e.g., community agencies, district school boards, government); c) taking action as an advocate or activist. Negative narratives about families, schools, and communities should not be maintained, but instead critical and courageous conversations in and out of school should be initiated and sustained; and d) maintaining consistency, simplicity, and steady progress. All involved in engagement need to be aware of the struggles, but keep them in check with the many successes. Change may not be observed on a day-to-day basis or even immediately, but stepping back and looking from the outside in, might change the view. Working toward a growth mindset will produce better results than a fixed mindset, and this takes time.

Keywords: family engagment, family-school-community engagement, parent engagement, parent involvment

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Authors: Kong Ngai Pei

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The argument scheme approach to argumentation has two components. One is to identify the recurrent patterns of inferences used in everyday discourse. The second is to devise critical questions to evaluate the inferences in these patterns. Although this approach is intuitive and contains many insightful ideas, it has been noted to be not free of problems. One is that due to its disavowing the probability calculus, it cannot give the exact strength of an inference. In order to tackle this problem, thereby paving the way to a more complete normative account of argument strength, it has been proposed, the most promising way is to combine the scheme-based approach with Bayesian networks (BNs). This paper pursues this line of thought, attempting to combine three common schemes, Appeal to Ignorance, Composition, and Division, with BNs. In the first part, it is argued that most (if not all) formulations of the critical questions corresponding to these schemes in the current argumentation literature are incomplete and not very informative. To remedy these flaws, more thorough and precise formulations of these questions are provided. In the second part, how to use graphical idioms (e.g. measurement and synthesis idioms) to translate the schemes as well as their corresponding critical questions to graphical structure of BNs, and how to define probability tables of the nodes using functions of various sorts are shown. In the final part, it is argued that many misuses of these schemes, traditionally called fallacies with the same names as the schemes, can indeed be adequately accounted for by the BN models proposed in this paper.

Keywords: appeal to ignorance, argument schemes, Bayesian networks, composition, division

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Authors: Narayana Murthy Akurathi, Vijaya Lakshmi Marella

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The literature is reviewed with regard to online Super critical fluid extraction (SFE) coupled directly with supercritical fluid chromatography (SFC) -mass spectrometry that have typically more sensitive than conventional LC-MS/MS and GC-MS/MS. It is becoming increasingly interesting to use on-line techniques that combine sample preparation, separation and detection in one analytical set up. This provides less human intervention, uses small amount of sample and organic solvent and yields enhanced analyte enrichment in a shorter time. The sample extraction is performed under light shielding and anaerobic conditions, preventing the degradation of thermo labile analytes. It may be able to analyze compounds over a wide polarity range as SFC generally uses carbon dioxide which was collected as a by-product of other chemical reactions or is collected from the atmosphere as it contributes no new chemicals to the environment. The diffusion of solutes in supercritical fluids is about ten times greater than that in liquids and about three times less than in gases which results in a decrease in resistance to mass transfer in the column and allows for fast high resolution separations. The drawback of SFC when using carbon dioxide as mobile phase is that the direct introduction of water samples poses a series of problems, water must therefore be eliminated before it reaches the analytical column. Hundreds of compounds analysed simultaneously by simple enclosing in an extraction vessel. This is mainly applicable for pharmaceutical industry where it can analyse fatty acids and phospholipids that have many analogues as their UV spectrum is very similar, trace additives in polymers, cleaning validation can be conducted by putting swab sample in an extraction vessel, analysing hundreds of pesticides with good resolution.

Keywords: super critical fluid extraction (SFE), super critical fluid chromatography (SFC), LCMS/MS, GCMS/MS

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Authors: Roberta Martino, Viviana Ventre

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Every day we face choices whose consequences are deferred in time. These types of choices are the intertemporal choices and play an important role in the social, economic, and financial world. The Discounted Utility Model is the mathematical model of reference to calculate the utility of intertemporal prospects. The discount rate is the main element of the model as it describes how the individual perceives the indeterminacy of subsequent periods. Empirical evidence has shown a discrepancy between the behavior expected from the predictions of the model and the effective choices made from the decision makers. In particular, the term temporal inconsistency indicates those choices that do not remain optimal with the passage of time. This phenomenon has been described with hyperbolic models of the discount rate which, unlike the linear or exponential nature assumed by the discounted utility model, is not constant over time. This paper explores the problem of inconsistency by tracing the decision-making process through the concept of impatience. The degree of impatience and the degree of decrease of impatience are two parameters that allow to quantify the weight of emotional factors and cognitive limitations during the evaluation and selection of alternatives. In fact, although the theory assumes perfectly rational decision makers, behavioral finance and cognitive psychology have made it possible to understand that distortions in the decision-making process and emotional influence have an inevitable impact on the decision-making process. The degree to which impatience is diminished is the focus of the first part of the study. By comparing consistent and inconsistent preferences over time, it was possible to verify that some anomalies in the discounted utility model are a result of the combination of cognitive bias and emotional factors. In particular: the delay effect and the interval effect are compared through the concept of misperception of time; starting from psychological considerations, a criterion is proposed to identify the causes of the magnitude effect that considers the differences in outcomes rather than their ratio; the sign effect is analyzed by integrating in the evaluation of prospects with negative outcomes the psychological aspects of loss aversion provided by Prospect Theory. An experiment implemented confirms three findings: the greatest variation in the degree of decrease in impatience corresponds to shorter intervals close to the present; the greatest variation in the degree of impatience occurs for outcomes of lower magnitude; the variation in the degree of impatience is greatest for negative outcomes. The experimental phase was implemented with the construction of the hyperbolic factor through the administration of questionnaires constructed for each anomaly. This work formalizes the underlying causes of the discrepancy between the discounted utility model and the empirical evidence of preference reversal.

Keywords: decreasing impatience, discount utility model, hyperbolic discount, hyperbolic factor, impatience

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Authors: Vicky Khasandi-Telewa, Sinfree Makoni

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Barrenness is a fundamentally agonizing condition that leads to identity disruption in its victims. In Africa, women are usually referred to as ‘Mother of X,’ and this causes grief to one who does not have a child to be identified with. This paper is an examination and critical appraisal of the impact of barrenness on the self-perception of women and the underlying power relations in how they are discursively constructed in the Bible and Traditional African Society (TAS). It is an analysis of expressive practices to examine how barrenness is constructed in Christianity and TAS with the aim of understanding the intersecting power systems. We approach this from an integrationism and Critical Discourse Analysis perspective that takes seriously both the radical harassment of barren women and the possibilities offered by the ensuing desperation calling for inclusive reinterpretation. We also seek to understand barren women’s coping mechanisms and suggestions on how best to improve their lives. The purpose of this study is to explain how discursive construction of barrenness affects the fundamental rights and freedoms of women and what linguistic strategies they adopt to navigate through the maze of stigma. It seeks to illustrate a more nuanced complexity of barren women's lives through women's own exegesis of the Biblical accounts of barrenness and their traditions and to explore alternative narratives. We explore the linguistic strategies the barren women employ to communicate their coping with limitations imposed upon their rights by the negative constructions.

Keywords: integrationism, critical discourse analysis, barrenness, communication strategies

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Authors: Y. A. Yahaya, Ahmad Tijjani Asabe

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This paper focuses on the formulation of 3-step hybrid Adams type method for the solution of first order differential equation (ODE). The methods which was derived on both grid and off grid points using multistep collocation schemes and also evaluated at some points to produced Block Adams type method and Adams moulton method respectively. The method with the highest order was selected to serve as the corrector. The convergence was valid and efficient. The numerical experiments were carried out and reveal that hybrid Adams type methods performed better than the conventional Adams moulton method.

Keywords: adam-moulton type (amt), corrector method, off-grid, block method, convergence analysis

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Authors: Jo Angouri, Charlotte Kennedy, Shawnea Ting, David Rawlinson, Matthew Booker, Nigel Rees

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Ambulance services need to balance the large volume of emergency (999 in the UK) calls they receive (e.g., West Midlands Ambulance Service reports per day about 4,000 999 calls; about 679,000 calls per year are received in Wales), with dispatching limited resource for on-site intervention to the most critical cases. The process by which Emergency Medical Dispatch (EMD) decisions are made is related to risk assessment and involves the caller and call-taker as well as clinical teams negotiating risk levels on a case-by-case basis. Medical Priority Dispatch System (MPDS – also referred to as Advanced Medical Priority Dispatch System AMPDS) are used in the UK by NHS Trusts (e.,g WAST) to process and prioritise 999 calls. MPDS / AMPDS provide structured protocols for call prioritisation and call management. Protocols/policy frameworks have not been examined before in the way we propose in our project. In more detail, the risk factors that play a role in the EMD negotiation between the caller and call-taker have been analysed in both medical and social science research. Research has focused on the structural, morphological and phonological aspects that could improve, and train, human-to-human interaction or automate risk detection, as well as the medical factors that need to be captured from the caller to inform the dispatch decision. There are two significant gaps in our knowledge that we address in our work: 1. the role of backstage clinical teams in translating the caller/call-taker interaction in their internal risk negotiation and, 2. the role of policy frameworks, protocols and regulations in the framing of institutional priorities and resource allocation. We take a multi method approach and combine the analysis of 999 calls with the analysis of policy documents. We draw on interaction analysis, corpus methodologies and thematic analysis. In this paper, we report on our preliminary findings and focus in particular on the risk factors we have identified and the relationship with the regulations that create the frame within which teams operate. We close the paper with implications of our study for providing evidence-based policy intervention and recommendations for further research.

Keywords: emergency (999) call, interaction analysis, discourse analysis, ambulance dispatch, medical discourse

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Authors: Taiyo Matsumura, Kuninori Takahashi, Takashi Ono

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The purpose of this research is to improve the convenience of waiting for trains at level crossings and stations and to prevent accidents resulting from forcible entry into level crossings, by providing level crossing users and passengers with information that tells them when the next train will pass through or arrive. For this paper, we proposed methods for estimating operation by means of an average value method, variable response smoothing method, and exponential smoothing method, on the basis of open data, which has low accuracy, but for which performance schedules are distributed in real time. We then examined the accuracy of the estimations. The results showed that the application of an exponential smoothing method is valid.

Keywords: exponential smoothing method, open data, operation estimation, train schedule

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Authors: Baskar Kotte

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Many organizations are constantly striving to implement numerous techniques for long-term sustainability, for food related organizations it is imperative to conceptualize the critical concepts which constitute food safety sustainability. This presentation provides three critical pillars to develop a sustainable organization. Financial sustainability, regulatory sustainability and excellence standards sustainability are the three components which practiced and implemented effectively with process performance metrics defined objectives and targets lead to sustainable and safe food organizations. The participants take away a well-developed concept diagram with all elements impacting sustainability. Proven disciplined path which worked to achieve desired results is presented for effective implementation. Effective implementation of this proven disciplined path positions organizations to achieve world class status with bottomline improvement. Additionally, this presentation highlights critical terms, principles and implementation difficulties related to using the proven disciplined path. This presentation is beneficial for business leaders, food safety compliance managers, food safety practitioners, financial managers, Lean & Six sigma continual improvement managers, BRC/SQF/ IFS / FSSC 22000 practitioners and food manufacturing personnel.

Keywords: food safety, sustainability, regulatory, lean, six sigma, bottom-line improvement disciplined path

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Authors: Samantha Meyr, Eman Mirdamadi, Martha Wang, Tao Lowe, Ryan Smith, Quinn Burke

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Critical-sized bone defects (CSD) treatment options remain a major clinical orthopedic challenge. They are uniquely contoured diseased or damaged bones and can be defined as those that will not heal spontaneously and require surgical intervention. Autografts are the current gold standard CSD treatment, which are histocompatible and provoke a minimal immunogenic response; however, they can cause donor site morbidity and will not suffice for the size required for replacement. As an alternative to traditional surgical methods, bone tissue engineering will be implemented via 3D printing methods. A freeze-dried bone matrix (FDBM) is a type of graft material available but will only function as desired when in the presence of bone growth factors. Polycaprolactone (PCL) is a known biodegradable material with good biocompatibility that has been proven manageable in 3D printing as a medical device. A 3D-extrusion printing strategy is introduced to print these materials into scaffolds for bone grafting purposes, which could be more accessible and rapid than the current standard. Mechanical, thermal, cytotoxic, and physical properties were investigated throughout a degradation period of 6 months using fibroblasts and dental pulp stem cells. PCL-FDBM scaffolds were successfully printed with high print fidelity in their respective pore sizes and allograft content. Additionally, we have created a method for evaluating PCL using differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) and have evaluated PCL degradation over roughly 6 months.

Keywords: 3D printing, bone tissue engineering, cytotoxicity, degradation, scaffolds

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Authors: Mohammad Amin Mozaheb, Jalal Farzaneh Dehkordi, Khojasteh Hosseinzadehpilehvar

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English Language Teaching (ELT) is widely promoted across the world. ELT textbooks play pivotal roles in the mentioned process. Since biases of authors have been an issue of continuing interest to analysts over the past few years, the present study seeks to analyze an ELT textbook using Critical Discourse Analysis (CDA). To obtain the goal of the study, the listening section of a book called World English 3 (new edition) has been analyzed in terms of the cultures and countries mentioned in the listening section of the book using content-based analysis. The analysis indicates biases towards certain cultures. Moreover, some countries are shown as rich and powerful countries, while some others have been shown as poor ones without considering the history behind them.

Keywords: ELT, textbooks, critical discourse analysis, World English

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Authors: Malika Yaici, Soraya Aloui, Sara Semchaoui

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Recognition of human activities from sensor data is an active research area, and the main objective is to obtain a high recognition rate. In this work, we propose a recognition system based on expert systems. The proposed system makes the recognition based on the objects, object states, and gestures, taking into account the context (the location of the objects and of the person performing the activity, the duration of the elementary actions, and the activity). This work focuses on complex activities which are decomposed into simple easy to recognize activities. The proposed method can be applied to any type of activity. The simulation results show the robustness of our system and its speed of decision.

Keywords: human activity recognition, ubiquitous computing, context-awareness, expert system

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Authors: Zohreh Moghaddas, Morteza Yazdani, Farhad Hosseinzadeh

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Nowadays, data envelopment analysis (DEA) models featuring network structures have gained widespread usage for evaluating the performance of production systems and activities (Decision-Making Units (DMUs)) across diverse fields. By examining the relationships between the internal stages of the network, these models offer valuable insights to managers and decision-makers regarding the performance of each stage and its impact on the overall network. To further empower system decision-makers, the inverse data envelopment analysis (IDEA) model has been introduced. This model allows the estimation of crucial information for estimating parameters while keeping the efficiency score unchanged or improved, enabling analysis of the sensitivity of system inputs or outputs according to managers' preferences. This empowers managers to apply their preferences and policies on resources, such as inputs and outputs, and analyze various aspects like production, resource allocation processes, and resource efficiency enhancement within the system. The results obtained can be instrumental in making informed decisions in the future. The top result of this study is an analysis of infeasibility and incorrect estimation that may arise in the theory and application of the inverse model of data envelopment analysis with network structures. By addressing these pitfalls, novel protocols are proposed to circumvent these shortcomings effectively. Subsequently, several theoretical and applied problems are examined and resolved through insightful case studies.

Keywords: inverse models of data envelopment analysis, series network, estimation of inputs and outputs, efficiency, resource allocation, sensitivity analysis, infeasibility

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Authors: Walaa Diab, Baher Atlam, Nadia El Nimer

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Egypt faces many obvious economic challenges, and it is so clear that a real economic transformation is needed to address those problems, especially after the recent decisions of floating the Egyptian pound and the gradual subsidy cuts that are trying to meet the needed conditions to get the IMF support of (a £12bn loan) for its economic reform program. Following the post-2008 revival of the interest in the fiscal policy and its vital role in speeding up or slowing down the economic growth. Here comes the value of this paper as it seeks to analyze the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in Egypt by applying A Bayesian SVAR Approach. The study uses the Bayesian method because it includes the prior information and no relevant information is omitted and so it is well suited for rational, evidence-based decision-making. Since the study aims to define the effects of fiscal policy shocks in Egypt to help the decision-makers in determining the proper means to correct the structural problems in the Egyptian economy, it has to study the period of 1990s economic reform, but unfortunately; the available data is on an annual frequency. Thus, it uses annual time series to study the period 1991: 2005 And quarterly data over the period 2006–2016. It uses a set of six main variables includes government expenditure and net tax revenues as fiscal policy arms affecting real GDP, unemployment, inflation and the interest rate. The study also tries to assess the 'crowding out' effects by considering the effects of government spending and government revenue shocks on the composition of GDP, namely, on private consumption and private investment. Last but not least the study provides its policy implications regarding the needed role of fiscal policy in Egypt in the upcoming economic reform building on the results it concludes from the previous reform program.

Keywords: fiscal policy, government spending, structural vector autoregression, taxation

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Authors: Maryam Khazaei Pool, Lori Lewis

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This is a summary of articles based on higher order B-splines methods and the variation of B-spline methods such as Quadratic B-spline Finite Elements Method, Exponential Cubic B-Spline Method, Septic B-spline Technique, Quintic B-spline Galerkin Method, and B-spline Galerkin Method based on the Quadratic B-spline Galerkin method (QBGM) and Cubic B-spline Galerkin method (CBGM). In this paper, we study the B-spline methods and variations of B-spline techniques to find a numerical solution to the Burgers’ equation. A set of fundamental definitions, including Burgers equation, spline functions, and B-spline functions, are provided. For each method, the main technique is discussed as well as the discretization and stability analysis. A summary of the numerical results is provided, and the efficiency of each method presented is discussed. A general conclusion is provided where we look at a comparison between the computational results of all the presented schemes. We describe the effectiveness and advantages of these methods.

Keywords: Burgers’ equation, Septic B-spline, modified cubic B-spline differential quadrature method, exponential cubic B-spline technique, B-spline Galerkin method, quintic B-spline Galerkin method

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Authors: Mark Jason E. Arca, Jay Vee R. Linatoc, Rex Francis N. Lupango, Michael Joe A. Ramirez

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Participation promises an avenue for citizens to take part in governance, but it does not necessarily mean effective participation. The proper integration of participants in the decision-making process should be properly addressed to ensure effectiveness. This study explores the integration of the participants in the decision-making process to reveal the level of participation in the Solid Waste Management audit done by the Citizen Participatory Audit (CPA), a program under the supervision of the Commission on Audit. Specifically, this study will use the experience of participation to identify emerging themes that will help reveal the level of participation through the integrated ladder of participation. The researchers used key informant interviews to gather necessary data from the actors of the program. The findings revealed that the level of participation present in the CPA is at the Placation level, a level below the program’s targeted level of participation. The study also allowed the researchers to reveal facilitating factors in the program that contributed to a better understanding of the practice of participation.

Keywords: citizen participation, culture of participation, ladder of participation, level of participation

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Authors: Abdullah Bal

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This paper presents a one-class classification (OCC) technique based on Fukunaga-Koontz Transform (FKT) for binary classification problems. The FKT is originally a powerful tool to feature selection and ordering for two-class problems. To utilize the standard FKT for data domain description problem (i.e., one-class classification), in this paper, a set of non-class samples which exist outside of positive class (target class) describing boundary formed with limited training data has been constructed synthetically. The tunnel-like decision boundary around upper and lower border of target class samples has been designed using statistical properties of feature vectors belonging to the training data. To capture higher order of statistics of data and increase discrimination ability, the proposed method, termed one-class FKT (OC-FKT), has been extended to its nonlinear version via kernel machines and referred as OC-KFKT for short. Multiple kernel learning (MKL) is a favorable family of machine learning such that tries to find an optimal combination of a set of sub-kernels to achieve a better result. However, the discriminative ability of some of the base kernels may be low and the OC-KFKT designed by this type of kernels leads to unsatisfactory classification performance. To address this problem, the quality of sub-kernels should be evaluated, and the weak kernels must be discarded before the final decision making process. MKL/OC-FKT and selective MKL/OC-FKT frameworks have been designed stimulated by ensemble learning (EL) to weight and then select the sub-classifiers using the discriminability and diversities measured by eigenvalue ratios. The eigenvalue ratios have been assessed based on their regions on the FKT subspaces. The comparative experiments, performed on various low and high dimensional data, against state-of-the-art algorithms confirm the effectiveness of our techniques, especially in case of small sample size (SSS) conditions.

Keywords: ensemble methods, fukunaga-koontz transform, kernel-based methods, multiple kernel learning, one-class classification

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Authors: Juan F. P. Ramírez, Jésica A. L. Isaza, Benjamín A. Rojano

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This study proposes a novel use of a method to determine the mechanical properties of fruits by the use of the indentation tests. The method combines experimental results with a numerical finite elements model. The results presented correspond to a simplified numerical modeling of banana. The banana was assumed as one-layer material with an isotropic linear elastic mechanical behavior, the Young’s modulus found is 0.3Mpa. The method will be extended to multilayer models in further studies.

Keywords: finite element method, fruits, inverse analysis, mechanical properties

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Authors: Amara Prakasa Rao, N. V. S. N. Sarma

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This paper describes the synthesis of linear array geometry with minimum sidelobe level and null control using the Taguchi method. Based on the concept of the orthogonal array, Taguchi method effectively reduces the number of tests required in an optimization process. Taguchi method has been successfully applied in many fields such as mechanical, chemical engineering, power electronics, etc. Compared to other evolutionary methods such as genetic algorithms, simulated annealing and particle swarm optimization, the Taguchi method is much easier to understand and implement. It requires less computational/iteration processing to optimize the problem. Different cases are considered to illustrate the performance of this technique. Simulation results show that this method outperforms the other evolution algorithms (like GA, PSO) for smart antenna systems design.

Keywords: array factor, beamforming, null placement, optimization method, orthogonal array, Taguchi method, smart antenna system

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Authors: Zekun Li, Bart Merci, Miaocheng Weng, Fang Liu

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The Z-shaped passage, widely used in metro entrance/exit passageways, inclined mining laneways, and other applications, features steep slopes and a combination of horizontal and inclined sections. These characteristics lead to notable differences in airflow patterns and temperature distributions compared to conventional confined passages. In fires occurring within Z-shaped passages under natural ventilation with a weak stack effect, the induced airflow may be insufficient to fully confined smoke downstream of the fire source. This can cause smoke back-layering upstream, with the possibility of smoke escaping from the lower entrance located upstream of the fire. Consequently, not all the heat from the fire source contributes to the stack effect. This study combines theoretical analysis and fire simulations to examine the influence of various heat release rates (HRR), passage structures, and fire source locations on the induced airflow velocity driven by the stack effect. An empirical equation is proposed to quantify the strength of the stack effect under different conditions. Additionally, predictive models have been developed to determine the critical induced airflow and to estimate the heat of smoke escaping from the lower entrance of the passage.

Keywords: stack effect, critical velocity, heat outflow, numerical simulation

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Authors: Giuseppe Timperio, Robert De Souza

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The combination of factors such as temperamental climate change, rampant urbanization of risk exposed areas, political and social instabilities, is posing an alarming base for the further growth of number and magnitude of humanitarian crises worldwide. Given the unique features of humanitarian supply chain such as unpredictability of demand in space, time, and geography, spike in the number of requests for relief items in the first days after the calamity, uncertain state of logistics infrastructures, large volumes of unsolicited low-priority items, a proactive approach towards design of disaster response operations is needed to achieve high agility in mobilization of emergency supplies in the immediate aftermath of the event. This paper is an attempt in that direction, and it provides decision makers with crucial strategic insights for a more effective network design for disaster response. Decision sciences and ICT are integrated to analyse the robustness and resilience of a prepositioned network of emergency strategic stockpiles for a real-life case about Indonesia, one of the most vulnerable countries in Asia-Pacific, with the model being built upon a rich set of quantitative data. At this aim, a network optimization approach was implemented, with several what-if scenarios being accurately developed and tested. Findings of this study are able to support decision makers facing challenges related with disaster relief chains resilience, particularly about optimal configuration of supply chain facilities and optimal flows across the nodes, while considering the network structure from an end-to-end in-country distribution perspective.

Keywords: disaster preparedness, humanitarian logistics, network optimization, resilience

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Authors: M. I. Abdelhamid, A. O. Ghallab, R. S. Ettouney, M. A. El-Rifai

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An optimization scheme based on COM server is suggested for communication between Genetic Algorithm (GA) toolbox of MATLAB and Aspen HYSYS. The structure and details of the proposed framework are discussed. The power of the developed scheme is illustrated by its application to the optimization of a recently developed natural gas liquefaction process in which Aspen HYSYS was used for minimization of the power consumption by optimizing the values of five operating variables. In this work, optimization by coupling between the GA in MATLAB and Aspen HYSYS model of the same process using the same five decision variables enabled improvements in power consumption by 3.3%, when 77% of the natural gas feed is liquefied. Also on inclusion of the flow rates of both nitrogen and carbon dioxide refrigerants as two additional decision variables, the power consumption decreased by 6.5% for a 78% liquefaction of the natural gas feed.

Keywords: stranded gas liquefaction, genetic algorithm, COM server, single nitrogen expansion, carbon dioxide pre-cooling

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Authors: Nooshin Salari, Viliam Makis, Jane Doe

Abstract:

This paper presents a maintenance policy for a system consisting of two units. Unit 1 is gradually deteriorating and is subject to soft failure. Unit 2 has a general lifetime distribution and is subject to hard failure. Condition of unit 1 of the system is monitored periodically and it is considered as failed when its deterioration level reaches or exceeds a critical level N. At the failure time of unit 2 system is considered as failed, and unit 2 will be correctively replaced by the next inspection epoch. Unit 1 or 2 are preventively replaced when deterioration level of unit 1 or age of unit 2 exceeds the related preventive maintenance (PM) levels. At the time of corrective or preventive replacement of unit 2, there is an opportunity to replace unit 1 if its deterioration level reaches the opportunistic maintenance (OM) level. If unit 2 fails in an inspection interval, system stops operating although unit 1 has not failed. A mathematical model is derived to find the preventive and opportunistic replacement levels for unit 1 and preventive replacement age for unit 2, that minimize the long run expected average cost per unit time. The problem is formulated and solved in the semi-Markov decision process (SMDP) framework. Numerical example is provided to illustrate the performance of the proposed model and the comparison of the proposed model with an optimal policy without opportunistic maintenance level for unit 1 is carried out.

Keywords: condition-based maintenance, opportunistic maintenance, preventive maintenance, two-unit system

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Authors: T. Penkova, A. Korobko, V. Nicheporchuk, L. Nozhenkova, A. Metus

Abstract:

This paper presents an approach of on-line control of the state of technosphere and environment objects based on the integration of Data Warehouse, OLAP and Expert systems technologies. It looks at the structure and content of data warehouse that provides consolidation and storage of monitoring data. There is a description of OLAP-models that provide a multidimensional analysis of monitoring data and dynamic analysis of principal parameters of controlled objects. The authors suggest some criteria of emergency risk assessment using expert knowledge about danger levels. It is demonstrated now some of the proposed solutions could be adopted in territorial decision making support systems. Operational control allows authorities to detect threat, prevent natural and anthropogenic emergencies and ensure a comprehensive safety of territory.

Keywords: decision making support systems, emergency risk assessment, natural and anthropogenic safety, on-line control, territory

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Authors: Michael Mihalicz, Aziz Guergachi

Abstract:

Background: The science of modelling choice preferences has evolved over centuries into an interdisciplinary field contributing to several branches of Microeconomics and Mathematical Psychology. Early theories in Decision Science rested on the logic of rationality, but as it and related fields matured, descriptive theories emerged capable of explaining systematic violations of rationality through cognitive mechanisms underlying the thought processes that guide human behaviour. Cognitive limitations are not, however, solely responsible for systematic deviations from rationality and many are now exploring the effect of visceral factors as the more dominant drivers. The current study builds on the existing literature by exploring sleep deprivation, thermal comfort, stress, hunger, fear, anger and sadness as moderators to three distinct elements that define individual risk preference under Cumulative Prospect Theory. Methodology: This study is designed to compare the risk preference of participants experiencing an elevated affective or visceral state to those in a neutral state using nonparametric elicitation methods across three domains. Two experiments will be conducted simultaneously using different methodologies. The first will determine visceral states and risk preferences randomly over a two-week period by prompting participants to complete an online survey remotely. In each round of questions, participants will be asked to self-assess their current state using Visual Analogue Scales before answering a series of lottery-style elicitation questions. The second experiment will be conducted in a laboratory setting using psychological primes to induce a desired state. In this experiment, emotional states will be recorded using emotion analytics and used a basis for comparison between the two methods. Significance: The expected results include a series of measurable and systematic effects on the subjective interpretations of gamble attributes and evidence supporting the proposition that a portion of the variability in human choice preferences unaccounted for by cognitive limitations can be explained by interacting visceral states. Significant results will promote awareness about the subconscious effect that emotions and other drive states have on the way people process and interpret information, and can guide more effective decision making by informing decision-makers of the sources and consequences of irrational behaviour.

Keywords: decision making, emotions, prospect theory, visceral factors

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Authors: Emmanuel U. Unuafe, Oyegoke T. Bukoye, Sandhya Sastry, Yanqing Duan

Abstract:

Globally, there is increasing interest in project management due to a shortage in infrastructure services supply capability. Hence, it is of utmost importance that organisations understand that choosing a particular project over another is an opportunity cost – tying up the organisations resources. In order to devise constructive ways to bring direction, structure, and oversight to the process of project selection has led to the development of tools and techniques by researchers and practitioners. However, despite the development of various frameworks to assist in the appraisal and selection of government projects, failures are still being recorded with government projects. In developing countries, where frameworks are rarely used, the problems are compounded. To improve the situation, this study will investigate the current practice of construction project selection processes within the Nigeria public sector in order to inform theories of decision making from the perspective of developing nations and project management practice. Unlike other research around construction projects in Nigeria this research concentrate on factors influencing the selection process within the Nigeria public sector, which has received limited study. The authors report the findings of semi-structured interviews of top management in the Nigerian public sector and draw conclusions in terms of decision making extant theory and current practice. Preliminary results from the data analysis show that groups make project selection decisions and this forces sub-optimal decisions due to pressure on time, clashes of interest, lack of standardised framework for selecting projects, lack of accountability and poor leadership. Consequently, because decision maker is usually drawn from different fields, religious beliefs, ethnic group and with different languages. The choice of a project by an individual will be greatly influence by experience, political precedence than by realistic investigation as well as his understanding of the desired outcome of the project, in other words, the individual’s ideology and their level of fairness.

Keywords: factors influencing project selection, public sector construction project selection, projects portfolio selection, strategic decision-making

Procedia PDF Downloads 328