Search results for: bureaucratic management model
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 24035

Search results for: bureaucratic management model

22475 Determinant Elements for Useful Life in Airports

Authors: Marcelo Müller Beuren, José Luis Duarte Ribeiro

Abstract:

Studies point that Brazilian large airports are not managing their assets efficiently. Therefore, organizations seek improvements to raise their asset’s productivity. Hence, identification of assets useful life in airports becomes an important subject, since its accuracy leads to better maintenance plans and technological substitution, contribution to airport services management. However, current useful life prediction models do not converge in terms of determinant elements used, as they are particular to the studied situation. For that reason, the main objective of this paper is to identify the determinant elements for a useful life of major assets in airports. With that purpose, a case study was held in the key airport of the south of Brazil trough historical data analysis and specialist interview. This paper concluded that most of the assets useful life are determined by technical elements, maintenance cost, and operational costs, while few presented influence of technological obsolescence. As a highlight, it was possible to identify the determinant elements to be considered by a model which objective is to identify the useful life of airport’s major assets.

Keywords: airports, asset management, asset useful life

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22474 Statistical Data Analysis of Migration Impact on the Spread of HIV Epidemic Model Using Markov Monte Carlo Method

Authors: Ofosuhene O. Apenteng, Noor Azina Ismail

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Over the last several years, concern has developed over how to minimize the spread of HIV/AIDS epidemic in many countries. AIDS epidemic has tremendously stimulated the development of mathematical models of infectious diseases. The transmission dynamics of HIV infection that eventually developed AIDS has taken a pivotal role of much on building mathematical models. From the initial HIV and AIDS models introduced in the 80s, various improvements have been taken into account as how to model HIV/AIDS frameworks. In this paper, we present the impact of migration on the spread of HIV/AIDS. Epidemic model is considered by a system of nonlinear differential equations to supplement the statistical method approach. The model is calibrated using HIV incidence data from Malaysia between 1986 and 2011. Bayesian inference based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo is used to validate the model by fitting it to the data and to estimate the unknown parameters for the model. The results suggest that the migrants stay for a long time contributes to the spread of HIV. The model also indicates that susceptible individual becomes infected and moved to HIV compartment at a rate that is more significant than the removal rate from HIV compartment to AIDS compartment. The disease-free steady state is unstable since the basic reproduction number is 1.627309. This is a big concern and not a good indicator from the public heath point of view since the aim is to stabilize the epidemic at the disease equilibrium.

Keywords: epidemic model, HIV, MCMC, parameter estimation

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22473 Hybrid Quasi-Steady Thermal Lattice Boltzmann Model for Studying the Behavior of Oil in Water Emulsions Used in Machining Tool Cooling and Lubrication

Authors: W. Hasan, H. Farhat, A. Alhilo, L. Tamimi

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Oil in water (O/W) emulsions are utilized extensively for cooling and lubricating cutting tools during parts machining. A robust Lattice Boltzmann (LBM) thermal-surfactants model, which provides a useful platform for exploring complex emulsions’ characteristics under variety of flow conditions, is used here for the study of the fluid behavior during conventional tools cooling. The transient thermal capabilities of the model are employed for simulating the effects of the flow conditions of O/W emulsions on the cooling of cutting tools. The model results show that the temperature outcome is slightly affected by reversing the direction of upper plate (workpiece). On the other hand, an important increase in effective viscosity is seen which supports better lubrication during the work.

Keywords: hybrid lattice Boltzmann method, Gunstensen model, thermal, surfactant-covered droplet, Marangoni stress

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22472 Evolution of Approaches to Cost Calculation in the Conditions of the Modern Russian Economy

Authors: Elena Tkachenko, Vladimir Kokh, Alina Osipenko, Vladislav Surkov

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The modern period of development of Russian economy is fraught with a number of problems related to limitations in the use of traditional planning and financial management tools. Restrictions in the use of foreign software when performing an order of the Russian Government, on the one hand, and sanctions limiting the support of the major ERP and MRP II systems in the Russian Federation, on the other hand, entail the necessity to appeal to the basics of developing budgeting and analysis systems for industrial enterprises. Thus, cost calculation theory becomes the theoretical foundation for the development of industrial cost management systems. Based on the foregoing, it would be fair to make an assumption that the development of a working managerial accounting model on an industrial enterprise using an automated enterprise resource management system should rest upon the concept of the inevitability of alterations of business processes. On the other hand, optimized business processes make the architecture of financial analytics more transparent and permit the use of all the benefits of data cubes. The metrics and indicator slices provide online assessment of the state of key business processes at a given moment of time, which improves the quality of managerial decisions considerably. Therefore, the bilateral sanctions situation boosted the development of corporate business analytics and took industrial companies to the next level of understanding of business processes.

Keywords: cost culculation, ERP, OLAP, modern Russian economy

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22471 Developing and Evaluating Clinical Risk Prediction Models for Coronary Artery Bypass Graft Surgery

Authors: Mohammadreza Mohebbi, Masoumeh Sanagou

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The ability to predict clinical outcomes is of great importance to physicians and clinicians. A number of different methods have been used in an effort to accurately predict these outcomes. These methods include the development of scoring systems based on multivariate statistical modelling, and models involving the use of classification and regression trees. The process usually consists of two consecutive phases, namely model development and external validation. The model development phase consists of building a multivariate model and evaluating its predictive performance by examining calibration and discrimination, and internal validation. External validation tests the predictive performance of a model by assessing its calibration and discrimination in different but plausibly related patients. A motivate example focuses on prediction modeling using a sample of patients undergone coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) has been used for illustrative purpose and a set of primary considerations for evaluating prediction model studies using specific quality indicators as criteria to help stakeholders evaluate the quality of a prediction model study has been proposed.

Keywords: clinical prediction models, clinical decision rule, prognosis, external validation, model calibration, biostatistics

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22470 Knowledge Management for Competitiveness and Performances in Higher Educational Institutes

Authors: Jeyarajan Sivapathasundram

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Knowledge management has been recognised as an emerging factor for being competitive among institutions and performances in firms. As such, being recognised as knowledge rich institution, higher education institutes have to be recognised knowledge management based resources for achieving competitive advantages. Present research picked result out of postgraduate research conducted in knowledge management at non-state higher educational institutes of Sri Lanka. Besides, the present research aimed to discover knowledge management for competition and firm performances of higher educational institutes out of the result produced by the postgraduate study. Besides, the results are found in a pair that developed out of knowledge management practices and the reason behind the existence of the practices. As such, the present research has developed a filter to pick the pairs that satisfy its condition of competition and performance of the firm. As such, the pair, such as benchmarking is practised to be ethically competing through conducting courses. As the postgraduate research tested results of foreign researches in a qualitative paradigm, the finding of the present research are generalise fact for knowledge management for competitiveness and performances in higher educational institutes. Further, the presented research method used attributes which explain competition and performance in its filter to discover the pairs relevant to competition and performances. As such, the fact in regards to knowledge management for competition and performances in higher educational institutes are presented in the publication that the presentation is out of the generalised result. Therefore, knowledge management for competition and performance in higher educational institutes are generalised.

Keywords: competition in and among higher educational institutes, performances of higher educational institutes, noun based filtering, production out of generalisation of a research

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22469 Runoff Simulation by Using WetSpa Model in Garmabrood Watershed of Mazandaran Province, Iran

Authors: Mohammad Reza Dahmardeh Ghaleno, Mohammad Nohtani, Saeedeh Khaledi

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Hydrological models are applied to simulation and prediction floods in watersheds. WetSpa is a distributed, continuous and physically model with daily or hourly time step that explains of precipitation, runoff and evapotranspiration processes for both simple and complex contexts. This model uses a modified rational method for runoff calculation. In this model, runoff is routed along the flow path using Diffusion-Wave Equation which depend on the slope, velocity and flow route characteristics. Garmabrood watershed located in Mazandaran province in Iran and passing over coordinates 53° 10´ 55" to 53° 38´ 20" E and 36° 06´ 45" to 36° 25´ 30"N. The area of the catchment is about 1133 km2 and elevations in the catchment range from 213 to 3136 m at the outlet, with average slope of 25.77 %. Results of the simulations show a good agreement between calculated and measured hydrographs at the outlet of the basin. Drawing upon Nash-Sutcliffe Model Efficiency Coefficient for calibration periodic model estimated daily hydrographs and maximum flow rate with an accuracy up to 61% and 83.17 % respectively.

Keywords: watershed simulation, WetSpa, runoff, flood prediction

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22468 Modeling and Simulation of a CMOS-Based Analog Function Generator

Authors: Madina Hamiane

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Modelling and simulation of an analogy function generator is presented based on a polynomial expansion model. The proposed function generator model is based on a 10th order polynomial approximation of any of the required functions. The polynomial approximations of these functions can then be implemented using basic CMOS circuit blocks. In this paper, a circuit model is proposed that can simultaneously generate many different mathematical functions. The circuit model is designed and simulated with HSPICE and its performance is demonstrated through the simulation of a number of non-linear functions.

Keywords: modelling and simulation, analog function generator, polynomial approximation, CMOS transistors

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22467 Organizational Learning Strategies for Building Organizational Resilience

Authors: Stephanie K. Douglas, Gordon R. Haley

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Organizations face increasing disruptions, changes, and uncertainties through the rapid shifts in the economy and business environment. A capacity for resilience is necessary for organizations to survive and thrive in such adverse conditions. Learning is an essential component of an organization's capability for building resilience. Strategic human resource management is a principal component of learning and organizational resilience. To achieve organizational resilience, human resource management strategies must support individual knowledge, skills, and ability development through organizational learning. This study aimed to contribute to the comprehensive knowledge of the relationship between strategic human resource management and organizational learning to build organizational resilience. The organizational learning dimensions of knowledge acquisition, knowledge distribution, knowledge interpretation, and organizational memory can be fostered through human resource management strategies and then aggregated to the organizational level to build resilience.

Keywords: human resource development, human resource management, organizational learning, organizational resilience

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22466 Robust Optimisation Model and Simulation-Particle Swarm Optimisation Approach for Vehicle Routing Problem with Stochastic Demands

Authors: Mohanad Al-Behadili, Djamila Ouelhadj

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In this paper, a specific type of vehicle routing problem under stochastic demand (SVRP) is considered. This problem is of great importance because it models for many of the real world vehicle routing applications. This paper used a robust optimisation model to solve the problem along with the novel Simulation-Particle Swarm Optimisation (Sim-PSO) approach. The proposed Sim-PSO approach is based on the hybridization of the Monte Carlo simulation technique with the PSO algorithm. A comparative study between the proposed model and the Sim-PSO approach against other solution methods in the literature has been given in this paper. This comparison including the Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) to show the ability of the model and solution method in solving the complicated SVRP. The experimental results show that the proposed model and Sim-PSO approach has a significant impact on the obtained solution by providing better quality solutions comparing with well-known algorithms in the literature.

Keywords: stochastic vehicle routing problem, robust optimisation model, Monte Carlo simulation, particle swarm optimisation

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22465 SMEs Access to Finance in Croatia – Model Approach

Authors: Vinko Vidučić, Ljiljana Vidučić, Damir Boras

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The goals of the research include the determination of the characteristics of SMEs finance in Croatia, as well as the determination of indirect growth rates of the information model of the entrepreneurs` perception of business environment. The research results show that cost of finance and access to finance are most important constraining factor in setting up and running the business of small entrepreneurs in Croatia. Furthermore, small entrepreneurs in Croatia are significantly dissatisfied with the administrative barriers although relatively to a lesser extent than was the case in the pre-crisis time. High collateral requirement represents the main characteristic of bank lending concerning SMEs followed by long credit elaboration process. Formulated information model has defined the individual impact of indirect growth rates of the remaining variables on the model’s specific variable.

Keywords: business environment, information model, indirect growth rates, SME finance

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22464 Availability Strategy of Medical Information for Telemedicine Services

Authors: Rozo D. Juan Felipe, Ramírez L. Leonardo Juan, Puerta A. Gabriel Alberto

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The telemedicine services require correct computing resource management to guarantee productivity and efficiency for medical and non-medical staff. The aim of this study was to examine web management strategies to ensure the availability of resources and services in telemedicine so as to provide medical information management with an accessible strategy. In addition, to evaluate the quality-of-service parameters, the followings were measured: delays, throughput, jitter, latency, available bandwidth, percent of access and denial of services based of web management performance map with profiles permissions and database management. Through 24 different test scenarios, the results show 100% in availability of medical information, in relation to access of medical staff to web services, and quality of service (QoS) of 99% because of network delay and performance of computer network. The findings of this study suggest that the proposed strategy of web management is an ideal solution to guarantee the availability, reliability, and accessibility of medical information. Finally, this strategy offers seven user profile used at telemedicine center of Bogota-Colombia keeping QoS parameters suitable to telemedicine services.

Keywords: availability, medical information, QoS, strategy, telemedicine

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22463 Knowledge Based Software Model for the Management and Treatment of Malaria Patients: A Case of Kalisizo General Hospital

Authors: Mbonigaba Swale

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Malaria is an infection or disease caused by parasites (Plasmodium Falciparum — causes severe Malaria, plasmodium Vivax, Plasmodium Ovale, and Plasmodium Malariae), transmitted by bites of infected anopheles (female) mosquitoes to humans. These vectors comprise of two types in Africa, particularly in Uganda, i.e. anopheles fenestus and Anopheles gambaie (‘example Anopheles arabiensis,,); feeds on man inside the house mainly at dusk, mid-night and dawn and rests indoors and makes them effective transmitters (vectors) of the disease. People in both urban and rural areas have consistently become prone to repetitive attacks of malaria, causing a lot of deaths and significantly increasing the poverty levels of the rural poor. Malaria is a national problem; it causes a lot of maternal pre-natal and antenatal disorders, anemia in pregnant mothers, low birth weights for the newly born, convulsions and epilepsy among the infants. Cumulatively, it kills about one million children every year in sub-Saharan Africa. It has been estimated to account for 25-35% of all outpatient visits, 20-45% of acute hospital admissions and 15-35% of hospital deaths. Uganda is the leading victim country, for which Rakai and Masaka districts are the most affected. So, it is not clear whether these abhorrent situations and episodes of recurrences and failure to cure from the disease are a result of poor diagnosis, prescription and dosing, treatment habits and compliance of the patients to the drugs or the ethical domain of the stake holders in relation to the main stream methodology of malaria management. The research is aimed at offering an alternative approach to manage and deal absolutely with problem by using a knowledge based software model of Artificial Intelligence (Al) that is capable of performing common-sense and cognitive reasoning so as to take decisions like the human brain would do to provide instantaneous expert solutions so as to avoid speculative simulation of the problem during differential diagnosis in the most accurate and literal inferential aspect. This system will assist physicians in many kinds of medical diagnosis, prescribing treatments and doses, and in monitoring patient responses, basing on the body weight and age group of the patient, it will be able to provide instantaneous and timely information options, alternative ways and approaches to influence decision making during case analysis. The computerized system approach, a new model in Uganda termed as “Software Aided Treatment” (SAT) will try to change the moral and ethical approach and influence conduct so as to improve the skills, experience and values (social and ethical) in the administration and management of the disease and drugs (combination therapy and generics) by both the patient and the health worker.

Keywords: knowledge based software, management, treatment, diagnosis

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22462 Spread of Measles Disease in Indonesia with Susceptible Vaccinated Infected Recovered Model

Authors: Septiawan A. Saputro, Purnami Widyaningsih, Sutanto Sastraredja

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Measles is a disease which can spread caused by a virus and has been a priority’s Ministry of Health in Indonesia to be solved. Each infected person can be recovered and get immunity so that the spread of the disease can be constructed with susceptible infected recovered (SIR). To prevent the spread of measles transmission, the Ministry of Health holds vaccinations program. The aims of the research are to derive susceptible vaccinated infected recovered (SVIR) model, to determine the patterns of disease spread with SVIR model, and also to apply the SVIR model on the spread of measles in Indonesia. Based on the article, it can be concluded that the spread model of measles with vaccinations, that is SVIR model. It is a first-order differential equation system. The patterns of disease spread is determined by solution of the model. Based on that model Indonesia will be a measles-free nation in 2186 with the average of vaccinations scope about 88% and the average score of vaccinations failure about 4.9%. If it is simulated as Ministry of Health new programs with the average of vaccinations scope about 95% and the average score of vaccinations failure about 3%, then Indonesia will be a measles-free nation in 2184. Even with the average of vaccinations scope about 100% and no failure of vaccinations, Indonesia will be a measles-free nation in 2183. Indonesia’s target as a measles-free nation in 2020 has not been reached.

Keywords: measles, vaccination, susceptible infected recovered (SIR), susceptible vaccinated infected recovered (SVIR)

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22461 Non-Circular Carbon Fiber Reinforced Polymers Chainring Failure Analysis

Authors: A. Elmikaty, Z. Thanawarothon, L. Mezeix

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This paper presents a finite element model to simulate the teeth failure of non-circular composite chainring. Model consists of the chainring and a part of the chain. To reduce the size of the model, only the first 11 rollers are simulated. In order to validate the model, it is firstly applied to a circular aluminum chainring and evolution of the stress in the teeth is compared with the literature. Then, effect of the non-circular shape is studied through three different loading positions. Strength of non-circular composite chainring and failure scenario is investigated. Moreover, two composite lay-ups are proposed to observe the influence of the stacking. Results show that composite material can be used but the lay-up has a large influence on the strength. Finally, loading position does not have influence on the first composite failure that always occurs in the first tooth.

Keywords: CFRP, composite failure, FEA, non-circular chainring

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22460 Facilitating Factors for the Success of Mobile Service Providers in Bangkok Metropolitan

Authors: Yananda Siraphatthada

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The objectives of this research were to study the level of influencing factors, leadership, supply chain management, innovation, competitive advantages, business success, and affecting factors to the business success of the mobile phone system service providers in Bangkok Metropolitan. This research was done by the quantitative approach and the qualitative approach. The quantitative approach was used for questionnaires to collect data from the 331 mobile service shop managers franchised by AIS, Dtac and TrueMove. The mobile phone system service providers/shop managers were randomly stratified and proportionally allocated into subgroups exclusive to the number of the providers in each network. In terms of qualitative method, there were in-depth interviews of 6 mobile service providers/managers of Telewiz and Dtac and TrueMove shop to find the agreement or disagreement with the content analysis method. Descriptive Statistics, including Frequency, Percentage, Means and Standard Deviation were employed; also, the Structural Equation Model (SEM) was used as a tool for data analysis. The content analysis method was applied to identify key patterns emerging from the interview responses. The two data sets were brought together for comparing and contrasting to make the findings, providing triangulation to enrich result interpretation. It revealed that the level of the influencing factors – leadership, innovation management, supply chain management, and business competitiveness had an impact at a great level, but that the level of factors, innovation and the business, financial success and nonbusiness financial success of the mobile phone system service providers in Bangkok Metropolitan, is at the highest level. Moreover, the business influencing factors, competitive advantages in the business of mobile system service providers which were leadership, supply chain management, innovation management, business advantages, and business success, had statistical significance at .01 which corresponded to the data from the interviews.

Keywords: mobile service providers, facilitating factors, Bangkok Metropolitan, business success

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22459 Mathematical Modeling of Human Cardiovascular System: A Lumped Parameter Approach and Simulation

Authors: Ketan Naik, P. H. Bhathawala

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The purpose of this work is to develop a mathematical model of Human Cardiovascular System using lumped parameter method. The model is divided in three parts: Systemic Circulation, Pulmonary Circulation and the Heart. The established mathematical model has been simulated by MATLAB software. The innovation of this study is in describing the system based on the vessel diameters and simulating mathematical equations with active electrical elements. Terminology of human physical body and required physical data like vessel’s radius, thickness etc., which are required to calculate circuit parameters like resistance, inductance and capacitance, are proceeds from well-known medical books. The developed model is useful to understand the anatomic of human cardiovascular system and related syndromes. The model is deal with vessel’s pressure and blood flow at certain time.

Keywords: cardiovascular system, lumped parameter method, mathematical modeling, simulation

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22458 Impact of Data and Model Choices to Urban Flood Risk Assessments

Authors: Abhishek Saha, Serene Tay, Gerard Pijcke

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The availability of high-resolution topography and rainfall information in urban areas has made it necessary to revise modeling approaches used for simulating flood risk assessments. Lidar derived elevation models that have 1m or lower resolutions are becoming widely accessible. The classical approaches of 1D-2D flow models where channel flow is simulated and coupled with a coarse resolution 2D overland flow models may not fully utilize the information provided by high-resolution data. In this context, a study was undertaken to compare three different modeling approaches to simulate flooding in an urban area. The first model used is the base model used is Sobek, which uses 1D model formulation together with hydrologic boundary conditions and couples with an overland flow model in 2D. The second model uses a full 2D model for the entire area with shallow water equations at the resolution of the digital elevation model (DEM). These models are compared against another shallow water equation solver in 2D, which uses a subgrid method for grid refinement. These models are simulated for different horizontal resolutions of DEM varying between 1m to 5m. The results show a significant difference in inundation extents and water levels for different DEMs. They are also sensitive to the different numerical models with the same physical parameters, such as friction. The study shows the importance of having reliable field observations of inundation extents and levels before a choice of model and data can be made for spatial flood risk assessments.

Keywords: flooding, DEM, shallow water equations, subgrid

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22457 Control-Oriented Enhanced Zero-Dimensional Two-Zone Combustion Modelling of Internal Combustion Engines

Authors: Razieh Arian, Hadi Adibi-Asl

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This paper investigates an efficient combustion modeling for cycle simulation of internal combustion engine (ICE) studies. The term “efficient model” means that the models must generate desired simulation results while having fast simulation time. In other words, the efficient model is defined based on the application of the model. The objective of this study is to develop math-based models for control applications or shortly control-oriented models. This study compares different modeling approaches used to model the ICEs such as mean-value models, zero dimensional, quasi-dimensional, and multi-dimensional models for control applications. Mean-value models have been widely used for model-based control applications, but recently by developing advanced simulation tools (e.g. Maple/MapleSim) the higher order models (more complex) could be considered as control-oriented models. This paper presents the enhanced zero-dimensional cycle-by-cycle modeling and simulation of a spark ignition engine with a two-zone combustion model. The simulation results are cross-validated against the simulation results from GT-Power package and show a good agreement in terms of trends and values.

Keywords: Two-zone combustion, control-oriented model, wiebe function, internal combustion engine

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22456 Constructing a Probabilistic Ontology from a DBLP Data

Authors: Emna Hlel, Salma Jamousi, Abdelmajid Ben Hamadou

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Every model for knowledge representation to model real-world applications must be able to cope with the effects of uncertain phenomena. One of main defects of classical ontology is its inability to represent and reason with uncertainty. To remedy this defect, we try to propose a method to construct probabilistic ontology for integrating uncertain information in an ontology modeling a set of basic publications DBLP (Digital Bibliography & Library Project) using a probabilistic model.

Keywords: classical ontology, probabilistic ontology, uncertainty, Bayesian network

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22455 A Universal Approach to Categorize Failures in Production

Authors: Konja Knüppel, Gerrit Meyer, Peter Nyhuis

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The increasing interconnectedness and complexity of production processes raise the susceptibility of production systems to failure. Therefore, the ability to respond quickly to failures is increasingly becoming a competitive factor. The research project "Sustainable failure management in manufacturing SMEs" is developing a methodology to identify failures in the production and select preventive and reactive measures in order to correct failures and to establish sustainable failure management systems.

Keywords: failure categorization, failure management, logistic performance, production optimization

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22454 Factors Affecting Cost Efficiency of Municipal Waste Services in Tuscan Municipalities: An Empirical Investigation by Accounting for Different Management

Authors: María Molinos-Senante, Giulia Romano

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This paper aims at investigating the effect of ownership in the efficiency assessment of municipal solid waste management. In doing so, the Data Envelopment Analysis meta-frontier approach integrating unsorted waste as undesirable output was applied. Three different clusters of municipalities have been created on the basis of the ownership type of municipal waste operators. In the second stage of analysis, the paper investigates factors affecting efficiency, in order to provide an outlook of levers to be used by policy and decision makers to improve efficiency, taking into account different management models in force. Results show that public waste management firms have better performance than mixed and private ones since their efficiency scores are significantly larger. Moreover, it has been demonstrated that the efficiency of waste management firms is statistically influenced by the age of population, population served, municipal size, population density and tourism rate. It evidences the importance of economies of scale on the cost efficiency of waste management. This issue is relevant for policymakers to define and implement policies aimed to improve the long-term sustainability of waste management in municipalities.

Keywords: data envelopment analysis, efficiency, municipal solid waste, ownership, undesirable output

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22453 Strategies to Mitigate Disasters at the Hajj Religious Festival Using GIS and Agent Based Modelling

Authors: Muteb Alotaibi, Graham Clarke, Nick Malleson

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The Hajj religious festival at Mina in Saudi Arabia has always presented the opportunity for injuries or deaths. For example, in 1990, a stampede killed 1426 pilgrims, whilst in 1997, 343 people were killed and 1500 injured due to a fire fuelled by high winds sweeping through the tent city in Mina.Many more minor incidents have occurred since then. It is predicted that 5 million pilgrims will soon perform the ritual at Mina (which is, in effect, a temporary city built each year in the desert), which might lead in the future to severe congestion and accidents unless the research is conducted on actions that contribute positively to improving the management of the crowd and facilitating the flow of pilgrims safely and securely. To help prevent further disasters, it is important to first plan better, more accessible locations for emergency services across Mina to ensure a good service for pilgrims. In this paper, we first use a Location Allocation Model (LAM) within a network GIS to examine the optimal locations for key services in the temporary city of Mina. This has been undertaken in relation to the location and movement of the pilgrims during the six day religious festival. The results of various what-if scenarios have been compared against the current location of services. A major argument is that planners should be flexible and locate facilities at different locations throughout the day and night. The use of location-allocation models in this type of comparative static mode has rarely been operationalised in the literature. Second, we model pilgrim movements and behaviours along with the most crowded parts of the network. This has been modelled using an agent-based model. This model allows planners to understand the key bottlenecks in the network and at what usage levels the paths become critically congested. Thus the paper has important implications and recommendations for future disaster planning strategies. This will enable planners to see at what stage in the movements of pilgrims problems occur in terms of potential crushes and trampling incidents. The main application of this research was only customised for pedestrians as the concentration only for pedestrians who move to Jamarat via foot. Further, the network in the middle of Mina was only dedicated for pedestrians for safety, so no Buses, trains and private cars were allowed in this area to prevent the congestion within this network. Initially, this research focus on Mina city as ‘temporary city’ and also about service provision in temporary cities, which is not highlighted in literature so far. Further, it is the first study which use the dynamic demand to optimise the services in the case of day and night time. Moreover, it is the first study which link the location allocation model for optimising services with ABM to find out whether or not the service location is located in the proper location in which it’s not affecting on crowd movement in mainstream flow where some pilgrims need to have health services.

Keywords: ABM, crowd management, hajj, temporary city

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22452 From Sampling to Sustainable Phosphate Recovery from Mine Waste Rock Piles

Authors: Hicham Amar, Mustapha El Ghorfi, Yassine Taha, Abdellatif Elghali, Rachid Hakkou, Mostafa Benzaazoua

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Phosphate mine waste rock (PMWR) generated during ore extraction is continuously increasing, resulting in a significant environmental footprint. The main objectives of this study consist of i) elaboration of the sampling strategy of PMWR piles, ii) a mineralogical and chemical characterization of PMWR piles, and iii) 3D block model creation to evaluate the potential valorization of the existing PMWR. Destructive drilling using reverse circulation from 13 drills was used to collect samples for chemical (X-ray fluorescence analysis) and mineralogical assays. The 3D block model was created based on the data set, including chemical data of the realized drills using Datamine RM software. The optical microscopy observations showed that the sandy phosphate from drills in the PMWR piles is characterized by the abundance of carbonate fluorapatite with the presence of calcite, dolomite, and quartz. The mean grade of composite samples was around 19.5±2.7% for P₂O₅. The mean grade of P₂O₅ exhibited an increasing tendency by depth profile from bottom to top of PMWR piles. 3D block model generated with chemical data confirmed the tendency of the mean grades’ variation and may allow a potential selective extraction according to %P₂O₅. The 3D block model of P₂O₅ grade is an efficient sampling approach that confirmed the variation of P₂O₅ grade. This integrated approach for PMWR management will be a helpful tool for decision-making to recover the residual phosphate, adopting the circular economy and sustainability in the phosphate mining industry.

Keywords: 3D modelling, reverse circulation drilling, circular economy, phosphate mine waste rock, sampling

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22451 Acausal and Causal Model Construction with FEM Approach Using Modelica

Authors: Oke Oktavianty, Tadayuki Kyoutani, Shigeyuki Haruyama, Junji Kaneko, Ken Kaminishi

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Modelica has many advantages and it is very useful in modeling and simulation especially for the multi-domain with a complex technical system. However, the big obstacle for a beginner is to understand the basic concept and to build a new system model for a real system. In order to understand how to solve the simple circuit model by hand translation and to get a better understanding of how modelica works, we provide a detailed explanation about solver ordering system in horizontal and vertical sorting and make some proposals for improvement. In this study, some difficulties in using modelica software with the original concept and the comparison with Finite Element Method (FEM) approach is discussed. We also present our textual modeling approach using FEM concept for acausal and causal model construction. Furthermore, simulation results are provided that demonstrate the comparison between using textual modeling with original coding in modelica and FEM concept.

Keywords: FEM, a causal model, modelica, horizontal and vertical sorting

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22450 Feasibility of Simulating External Vehicle Aerodynamics Using Spalart-Allmaras Turbulence Model with Adjoint Method in OpenFOAM and Fluent

Authors: Arpit Panwar, Arvind Deshpande

Abstract:

The study of external vehicle aerodynamics using Spalart-Allmaras turbulence model with adjoint method was conducted. The accessibility and ease of working with the Fluent module of ANSYS and OpenFOAM were considered. The objective of the study was to understand and analyze the possibility of bringing high-level aerodynamic simulation to the average consumer vehicle. A form-factor of BMW M6 vehicle was designed in Solidworks, which was analyzed in OpenFOAM and Fluent. The turbulence model being a single equation provides much faster convergence rate when clubbed with the adjoint method. Fluent being commercial software still does not allow us to solve Spalart-Allmaras turbulence model using the adjoint method. Hence, the turbulence model was solved using the SIMPLE method in Fluent. OpenFOAM being an open source provide flexibility in simulation but is not user-friendly. It supports solving the defined turbulence model with the adjoint method. The result generated from the simulation gives us acceptable values of drag, when validated with the result of percentage error in drag values for a notch-back vehicle model on an extensive simulation produced at 6th ANSA and μETA conference, Greece. The success of this approach will allow us to bring more aerodynamic vehicle body design to all segments of the automobile and not limiting it to just the high-end sports cars.

Keywords: Spalart-Allmaras turbulence model, OpenFOAM, adjoint method, SIMPLE method, vehicle aerodynamic design

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22449 A Study of Two Disease Models: With and Without Incubation Period

Authors: H. C. Chinwenyi, H. D. Ibrahim, J. O. Adekunle

Abstract:

The incubation period is defined as the time from infection with a microorganism to development of symptoms. In this research, two disease models: one with incubation period and another without incubation period were studied. The study involves the use of a  mathematical model with a single incubation period. The test for the existence and stability of the disease free and the endemic equilibrium states for both models were carried out. The fourth order Runge-Kutta method was used to solve both models numerically. Finally, a computer program in MATLAB was developed to run the numerical experiments. From the results, we are able to show that the endemic equilibrium state of the model with incubation period is locally asymptotically stable whereas the endemic equilibrium state of the model without incubation period is unstable under certain conditions on the given model parameters. It was also established that the disease free equilibrium states of the model with and without incubation period are locally asymptotically stable. Furthermore, results from numerical experiments using empirical data obtained from Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) showed that the overall population of the infected people for the model with incubation period is higher than that without incubation period. We also established from the results obtained that as the transmission rate from susceptible to infected population increases, the peak values of the infected population for the model with incubation period decrease and are always less than those for the model without incubation period.

Keywords: asymptotic stability, Hartman-Grobman stability criterion, incubation period, Routh-Hurwitz criterion, Runge-Kutta method

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22448 A Cognitive Schema of Architectural Designing Activity

Authors: Abdelmalek Arrouf

Abstract:

This article sets up a cognitive schema of the architectural designing activity. It begins by outlining, theoretically, an a priori model of its general cognitive mechanisms. The obtained theoretical framework represents the designing activity as a complex system composed of three interrelated subsystems of cognitive actions: a subsystem of meaning production, one of morphology production and finally a subsystem of navigation between the two formers. A protocol analysis that uses statistical and informational tools is then used to measure the validity of the built schema. The model thus achieved shows that the designer begins by conceiving abstract meanings, which he then translates into shapes. That’s why we call it a semio-morphic model of the designing activity.

Keywords: designing actions, model of the design process, morphosis, protocol analysis, semiosis

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22447 Stabilizing of Lithium-Solid-Electrolyte Interfaces by Atomic Layer Deposition Prepared Nano-Interlayers for a Model All-Solid-State Battery

Authors: Rainer Goetz, Zahra Ahaliabadeh, Princess S. Llanos, Aliaksandr S. Bandarenka, Tanja Kallio

Abstract:

In order to understand the electrochemistry of all-solid-state batteries (ASSBs), the use of electrochemical equivalent circuits with a physical meaning is essential. A model battery is needed whose characterization is independent of the influence of the complex battery assembly. Lithium-Ion Conducting Glass-Ceramic (LICGC), a model solid electrolyte, is chosen for its stability in the air, but on the other hand, it is also well-known for its instability against metallic lithium upon direct contact. Hence, as a first step towards a model ASSB, the interface between lithium and the solid electrolyte (SE) is stabilized with thin (5 nm and 10 nm) coatings of titanium oxide (TO) and lithium titanium oxide (LTO). Impedance data shows that both materials are able to protect the SE surface from rapid degradation due to reducing lithium and, therefore, can serve as a protective interlayer on the anode side of a model ASSB.

Keywords: all-solid-state battery, lithium anode, solid electrolytes, interlayers

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22446 Hybrid Equity Warrants Pricing Formulation under Stochastic Dynamics

Authors: Teh Raihana Nazirah Roslan, Siti Zulaiha Ibrahim, Sharmila Karim

Abstract:

A warrant is a financial contract that confers the right but not the obligation, to buy or sell a security at a certain price before expiration. The standard procedure to value equity warrants using call option pricing models such as the Black–Scholes model had been proven to contain many flaws, such as the assumption of constant interest rate and constant volatility. In fact, existing alternative models were found focusing more on demonstrating techniques for pricing, rather than empirical testing. Therefore, a mathematical model for pricing and analyzing equity warrants which comprises stochastic interest rate and stochastic volatility is essential to incorporate the dynamic relationships between the identified variables and illustrate the real market. Here, the aim is to develop dynamic pricing formulations for hybrid equity warrants by incorporating stochastic interest rates from the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) model, along with stochastic volatility from the Heston model. The development of the model involves the derivations of stochastic differential equations that govern the model dynamics. The resulting equations which involve Cauchy problem and heat equations are then solved using partial differential equation approaches. The analytical pricing formulas obtained in this study comply with the form of analytical expressions embedded in the Black-Scholes model and other existing pricing models for equity warrants. This facilitates the practicality of this proposed formula for comparison purposes and further empirical study.

Keywords: Cox-Ingersoll-Ross model, equity warrants, Heston model, hybrid models, stochastic

Procedia PDF Downloads 124